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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Election Predictions => Topic started by: Hillary 2016 on August 01, 2009, 08:18:09 PM



Title: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Hillary 2016 on August 01, 2009, 08:18:09 PM
Kansas

Sam Brownback (R) 68.7%
Chris Steineger (D) 28.4%

Maine

Steve Rowe (D) 52.3%
Matt Jacobson (R) 44.2%

Michigan

Mike Cox (R) 52.3%
John Cherry (D) 46.5%

New Mexico

Diane Denish (D) 52.4%
Susana Martinez (R) 46.1%

Oklahoma

Mary Fallin (R) 59.9%
Drew Edmondson (D) 40.1%

Oregon

Gordon Smith (R) 50.1%
Bill Bradbury (D) 48.7%

Pennsylvania

Tom Corbett (R) 50.2%
Jack Wagner (D) 49.4%

Tennessee

Zach Wamp (R) 53.4%
Mike McWherter (D) 46.1%

Wyoming

Dave Freudenthal (D) 69.7%
Colin M. Simpson (R) 30.1%

Alabama

Kay Ivey (R) 54.3%
Artur Davis (D) 45.7%

California

Dianne Feinstein (D) 55.8%
Meg Whitman (R) 43.1%

Florida

Bill McCollum (R) 55.6%
Alex Sink (D) 44.0%

Georgia

Roy Barnes (D) 50.4%
John Oxendine (R) 48.7%

Hawaii

Neil Abercrombie (D) 50.6%
James Aiona (R) 48.7%

Minnesota

Mark Dayton (D) 53.2%
Norm Coleman (R) 45.6%

Rhode Island

Lincoln Chafee (I) 39.7%
Frank Caprio (D) 36.5%
Joe Trillo (R) 24.1%

South Carolina

J. Gresham Barrett (R) 59.7%
Robert Ford (D) 40.3%

South Dakota

Dave Knudson (R) 52.2%
Scott Heidepriem (D) 46.3%

Utah

Gary Herbert (R) 71.3%
Peter Corroon (D) 27.2%

Arkansas

Mark Beebe (D) 62.4%
Asa Hutchinson (R) 32.3%

Colorado

Bill Ritter (D) 58.8%
Scott McInnis (R) 40.0%

Illinois

Pat Quinn (D) 57.4%
Bill Brady (R) 38.4%

Iowa

Chet Culver (D) 54.3%
Steve King (R) 45.4%

Maryland

Martin O'Malley (D) 61.2%
Michael J. Pappas (R) 34.4%

Massachusetts

Charles D. Baker (R) 42.6%
Deval Patrick (D) 38.7%
Tim Cahill (I) 18.3%

New Hampshire

John Lynch (D) 58.9%
John Sununu (R) 40.1%

New York

Rudy Giuliani (R) 58.9%
David Paterson (D) 38.7%

Ohio

John Kasich (R) 51.2%
Ted Strickland (D) 48.4%

Wisconsin

Jim Doyle (D) 55.2%
Scott Walker (R) 44.3%

Alaska

Sean Parnell (R) 56.7%
Hollis French (D) 42.3%

Arizona

Phil Gordon (D) 49.3%
Jan Brewer (R) 48.4%

Connecticut

Jodi Rell (R) 67.5%
Dan Malloy (D) 30.2%

Idaho

Butch Otter (R) 63.0%
David H. Bieter (D) 34.2%

Nebraska

Dave Heineman (R) 69.7%
Steve Lathrop (D) 28.0%

Nevada

Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 54.6%
Bob Cashell (R) 44.2%

Texas

Rick Perry (R) 56.4%
Bill White (D) 43.1%

Vermont

Jim Douglas (R) 53.0%
Susan Bartlett (D) 46.5%


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on August 03, 2009, 02:28:43 AM
Well, lets start out with Arizona.

The Democrats are NOT going to nominate "sanctuary city" Gordon.

The Republicans are likely to not nominate "higher taxes" Brewer.

Insiders figure that Trent Franks will be nominated by the Republicans, and defeat Democrat nominee Terry Goddard.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: DownWithTheLeft on August 03, 2009, 09:41:27 AM
The chances that Vermont is a two-way race is next to zero.  Other than that the only glaring disagreements I have are OR, WY, CA (b/c Feinstein won't run), GA, CO, IL, MD, MA, WI.  Actually, I don't really agree with many at all, I'm just uneducated at this time about a lot of races


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on August 03, 2009, 09:46:35 AM
GA, WY, and AZ I would have to agree will go Republican.  NY, Cuomo will run and Paterson will step aside as far as Freudenthal, he won't run, it too far fetched for him to challenge term limits.  As far as Ma and MD those are going to be razor thin margins.

So, I disagree on GA, WY and AZ, and NY.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: The Illinoisian on August 04, 2009, 09:52:02 PM
While Pat Quinn may be favored, now that he has avoided a Madigan primary, I don't think even the most optomistic Democrat thinks he will win with nearly a 20% victory; it will be much closer I believe. 

I am also not sure Brady will be the GOP candidate, but we'll see, that could be a pretty bruising primary. 

If the GOP decides on one candidate all factions can accept,  they could make a real run for it in IL I think, as after 8 years of hegemony the Democratic Party of IL is running out of steam.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: President Mitt on August 04, 2009, 09:56:09 PM
I thought Georgia hated Roy Barnes.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Hash on August 06, 2009, 01:53:59 PM
You forget other candidates in Maine and Vermont. In Maine you have the Greenies, which can be up to 10% of the vote or even a strongish random Indie. In Vermont, you have the Progressives which range from 5% to 20% (Pollina), the Liberty Union which is a constant 1% nuissance, plus random Indies/Greenies.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Ronnie on August 06, 2009, 04:41:28 PM
Does Les Otten have a chance at all? He's running for Governor of Maine.

http://lesotten.com/

Oh my God, he copied Obama's logo:

http://lesotten.com/images2/exploratory_bg.jpg


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Alexander Hamilton on August 06, 2009, 04:55:55 PM
Ritter won't win.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Dan the Roman on August 06, 2009, 05:35:58 PM
I think Peter Mills, if he wins the nomination, has an extremely good chance of winning in Maine. Baker is looking like he may tank in MA with a lot of his support going to Cahill.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: xavier110 on August 11, 2009, 02:34:48 PM
There is no way Paterson will be the Democratic nominee. He'll either be prodded to step down and not bother with the primary or he'll be destroyed by Cuomo.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on August 12, 2009, 04:54:24 PM
Andrew Cuomo has a Kennedy clan connection, Kerry Kennedy Cuomo, I think that boast well for him and his chances as well.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: fezzyfestoon on August 12, 2009, 07:02:56 PM
O'Malley will never even come close to breaking 60%.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Alexander Hamilton on August 13, 2009, 12:16:45 AM

It seems like it'll be a lot closer than that. McCollum has lost statewide a couple times.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: ajc0918 on August 13, 2009, 12:26:27 AM

It seems like it'll be a lot closer than that. McCollum has lost statewide a couple times.

Yeah, I just like to be optimistic :)


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Alexander Hamilton on August 13, 2009, 12:27:08 AM

It seems like it'll be a lot closer than that. McCollum has lost statewide a couple times.

Yeah, I just like to be optimistic :)

If that is the result, it will be good news for Fl Republican congressional candidates.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: brentster on August 17, 2009, 05:01:03 AM
I agree with the results for the most part. Some note, however

In Oregon, I agree that Republican Gordon Smith would win should he run (and I don't think he will). Otherwise, I think a generic D beats a generic R there. Gordon Smih is still well thought of even after his recent narrow defeat for reelection to Senate, and he would be favored over a less impressive candidate like Bill Bradbury.

In Hawaii, which some analysts are already handing to the Dems as a foregone conclusion, I agree that that race will be much closer than many predict. Neil Abercrombie (D) is quirky and unpredictable, and James Aion's eight years in state-wide office under a popular Republican governor should count for something.

DiFi won't run in California. If Meg Whitman is the GOP nominee, she has an even shot against Jerry Brown and would be favored over Gavin Newsom. Dems have a long tradition of shooting themselves in the foot with Cal govenor races. Yes, Arnold isn't popular, but the Dem-run Legislature is even less so. This could easily be a Republican retention.

There's no way that Mary Fallin (R) blows by Drew Edmondson (D) by 20 points in Oklahoma. At worse, Edmondson has an even shot at winning. He's been in statewide office for about forever now already, and his family is practically an Oklahoma institution.

Finally, it's hard for me to fathom Texas voters wanting four more years of Rick Perry, though I admit it is possible. Should he survive the primary battle from Hutchison (and that's a big if), he would probably be a slight underdog to Bill White, who is a strong candidate for the Democrats (assuming he gets the Dem nomination). Perry could still pull through in the end, but it won't be anywhere close to 56%.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: nkpatel1279 on August 17, 2009, 10:44:34 AM
Democratic Seats.
Democrats will hold on to
AR- Beebe-D
CO- Ritter-D
IL- Quinn/Hynes-D
IA- Culver-D
ME- 
MD- O'Malley-D
MA- Patrick-D- narrow win.
NH- Lynch-D
NM- Denish-D
NY- if either Cuomo or Suozzi is the Democratic nominee.
OH- Strickland-D
OR- Kitzhaber or Bradbury-D
PA- if Wagner or Onorato is the Democratic nominee
WI- Lawton-D
WY-if Freudenthal-D is permited to run again.
Democrats will lose or likely lose.
KS- Brownback-R
MI- Cox-R
NY- if Paterson is the Democratic Nominee and Guiliani is the GOP nominee.
OK- Fallin-R
PA- if Knox is the Democratic nominee
TN- Wamp-R
WY- if Freudenthal-D is barred from running again.
Republican Seats.
Republicans will hold onto
AL- if Moore is not the GOP nominee.
AK- Parnell-R
CT- Rell-R
GA- Oxedine-R
ID- Otter-R
NE- Heineman-R
SC- Barrett-R
SD- Duragard-R
TX- Hutchison/Perry-R
UT- Herbert-R
VT- Douglas-R
Republicans will lose or likely lose
AL- if Moore is the GOP nominee
AZ- Goddard-D
CA- Brown-D
FL- Sink-D
HI- Abercrombie-D
MN- Rybak-D
NV- Whoever the Democratic nominee is will defeat Jim Gibbons
RI- Tossup between Chaffee-I vs Democratic Nominee. Republican Nominee is irrevelant.










Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on August 17, 2009, 10:50:37 AM
I predict nealpatel loses 200 seats in a landslide.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: brentster on August 18, 2009, 05:28:40 AM
Which John Sununu are you predicting will be the Repubublican nominee in New Hampshire, the elder or younger? John E. Sununu recently lost his reelection bid to the Senate. His father, John H. Sununu, is a former governor and currently the chairman of the New Hampshire GOP.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: California8429 on August 22, 2009, 01:28:05 PM
The chances that Vermont is a two-way race is next to zero.  Other than that the only glaring disagreements I have are OR, WY, CA (b/c Feinstein won't run), GA, CO, IL, MD, MA, WI.  Actually, I don't really agree with many at all, I'm just uneducated at this time about a lot of races


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on August 31, 2009, 08:56:57 AM
I'm not going with percentage, but there's mu guess:

Alabama: Artur Davis (D), barerly

Alaska: Sean Parnell (R), safely

Arizona: Some Democrat instead of Brewer

Arkansas: Beebe (D), safely

Connectitut: Rell (R), safely

California: Brown (D), comforrtably

Colorado: Ritter (D)

Florida: McCollum (R)

Georgia: Tossup

Hawaii: Abercrombie (D), comfortably

Idaho: Otter (D), comfortably

Illinois: Quinn (D), comfortably

Iowa: Culver (D)

Kansas: Brownback (R), safely

Maine: IDK

Maryland: O'Malley (D)

Massachusetts: Patrick (D)

Michigan: IDK

Minnesota: Dayton (D)

Nebraska: Heineman (R), safely

Nevada: Some Democrat

New Hampshire: Lynch (D), safely

New Mexico: Denish (D)

New York: IDK

Ohio: Strickland (D), barely

Oklahoma: Fallin (R), comfortably

Oregon: Some Democrat

Pennsylvania: IDK, but I guess barerly Democrat

Rhode Island: Democratic

South Carolina: Safe D

South Dakota: Republican

Tennessee: IDK

Texas: Hutchison (R) barerly in primary and then in lansdlide in General

Utah: Herbert (R), safe

Vermont: Racine (D), comfortably

Wisconsin: Republican

Wyoming: If term limit overturned, Freudenthal (D) in landslide


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: riceowl on September 11, 2009, 09:06:53 AM
Bill White isn't running for governor.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: nhmagic on September 13, 2009, 02:56:23 PM
(
)

Heres how I see it. (Note I accidentally forgot Connecticut and I didnt want to make another map, it should be Red though)

Alaska - Parnell, solid
California - This all depends on the candidate.  If Feinstein does run, she wins.  If the dems cannabalize themselves with crazies, as it looks like, then Whitman wins.  If Newsom wins the primary, Whitman wins.
Oregon - If Smith runs, he wins.  Kuglonski's never been liked in the state.  Maybe Kevin Mannix will make another run.
Idaho - R solid
Nevada - Im assuming that the reason Heller passed on the senate race was in order for him to run for governor.  In that case, the job goes to him.  If its not him, its probably D.
Utah - R solid
Arizona - Phil Gordon and Terry Goddard will cannabalize themselves in the primary.  Both are top tier democrats, and Gordon in particular is known for sleazy mudslinging.  The primary will get nasty.  Brewer will make it through.
Hawaii - Abercrombie, barely.
Wyoming - solid D
Colorado - Ritter is in deep trouble and he has a lot of good candidates running against him.  They are also polling better than him. R
New Mexico - dems hold on to this one, but if anything moves forward on Richardson, then Denish could find herself in trouble
Plains states all the way through Texas - all republican, including Texas (Texas will stick with Perry)
I dont see any partisan movement in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa or Illinois. - all D
Arkansas - Beebe solid D
Tennessee - Bredesen solid D
Alabama - I dont know the players in this one.  I think this may be the southern one I get wrong. I defaulted it at R.
Georgia - Barnes, D
Florida - McCollum will win, but not by much, he is a weak candidate, it will just be a really good Republican year
South Carolina - We will have a second Indian-American republican governor in the deep south. Nikki Haley
Michigan - Granholms destruction of the state will hand this one to Republicans
Ohio - Stricklands in trouble, but Kasich will win by only a slim margin
Pennsylvania - DRDRDRDR, we are on the R cycle in how this state elects governors
Maryland - O Malley solid D
New York - Giuliani, by a slim margin R
Connecticut - solid R
Rhode Island - Chafee will win
Vermont - with Douglas leaving, this is the most likely to turn D
New Hamshire & Maine - solid D

This produces a pickup of:
1 ind, 6 republicans


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on September 19, 2009, 11:07:57 PM
Sorry, Azmagic, but Brewer is toast.

She's been slicing herself up for several months.

Much of her staff has jumpted ship.

She may not even seek nomination.

The real question is who will be the Republican nominee.

Suggest you check Sonoran Alliance for updates on the situation.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: nhmagic on September 27, 2009, 06:52:00 PM
Sorry, Azmagic, but Brewer is toast.

She's been slicing herself up for several months.

Much of her staff has jumpted ship.

She may not even seek nomination.

The real question is who will be the Republican nominee.

Suggest you check Sonoran Alliance for updates on the situation.
Where are Vernon Parker and Dean Martin in their beliefs?  I want to find the most articulate conservative of the two and one that will go on the national circuit to attack Obama.  Renewed prosperity in our state can be used as a counter to all of the President's failed programs.  I would prefer Parker (since he's black and good looking, makes it easier) to have those qualities.  He's from PV though, and that could signal a McCain-like elite republican sort of deal - I dont want that.  And, as for the dems Goddard has another thing coming though if he expects to easily make it through the primary.  Gordon and Thomas are just itching to bring their machine statewide.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on September 27, 2009, 08:55:21 PM
Sorry, Azmagic, but Brewer is toast.

She's been slicing herself up for several months.

Much of her staff has jumpted ship.

She may not even seek nomination.

The real question is who will be the Republican nominee.

Suggest you check Sonoran Alliance for updates on the situation.
Where are Vernon Parker and Dean Martin in their beliefs?  I want to find the most articulate conservative of the two and one that will go on the national circuit to attack Obama.  Renewed prosperity in our state can be used as a counter to all of the President's failed programs.  I would prefer Parker (since he's black and good looking, makes it easier) to have those qualities.  He's from PV though, and that could signal a McCain-like elite republican sort of deal - I dont want that.  And, as for the dems Goddard has another thing coming though if he expects to easily make it through the primary.  Gordon and Thomas are just itching to bring their machine statewide.

Well, the suverys (and insiders) indicate that Dean Martin is favored by conservative Republicans as Parker is an enigma.



Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 04, 2009, 07:34:04 PM
Feinstein's not running.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Sbane on October 04, 2009, 09:23:05 PM
I seriously doubt Whitman would win. Campbell or even Poizner stand a much better chance.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on October 04, 2009, 09:51:41 PM
I seriously doubt Whitman would win. Campbell or even Poizner stand a much better chance.

Whitman committed political suicide the other day by declaring herself in favor of taxpayer funded abortions, supporting drastic 'gun control' and favoring taxpayers paying welfare for illegal aliens.

Oh, and she also adores Van Jones, the commie that got pushed under the bus by Obama.



Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: nhmagic on October 05, 2009, 12:24:41 AM
I seriously doubt Whitman would win. Campbell or even Poizner stand a much better chance.

Whitman committed political suicide the other day by declaring herself in favor of taxpayer funded abortions, supporting drastic 'gun control' and favoring taxpayers paying welfare for illegal aliens.

Oh, and she also adores Van Jones, the commie that got pushed under the bus by Obama.


Yep, Whitman's not winning now for sure - she wont make it out of the primary.  I am taking a close look at Campbell though.  Former SF Mayor Willie Brown wrote an article about him saying how focused he is compared to all D or R candidates and that his could make him king in the end.  Willie's a pretty shrewd political mind, so I'm keeping my eyeball on that one.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: CatoMinor on October 14, 2009, 04:30:58 PM
Quote
Texas

Rick Perry (R) 56.4%
Bill White (D) 43.1%
Bill White is running for senate not for governor and Hutchinson apears to be in a position to beat Perry. At least for now the texas race looks to be Hutchinson vs. Friedman. in that case Hutchinson will win big.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 16, 2009, 10:29:22 AM
I think CA and MI will be a test to the Dems like NJ.  Doesn't always vote the same in Presidential elections like it does in midterm elections.  NJ, CA, and Mi will be taken like NJ and CO will be taken like VA.  Dems best case scenario is an even split in the governorships, but it will be a narrow republican victory or an even split.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 16, 2009, 02:45:59 PM
The governors Race in NJ is basically due to Corzine's unpopularity. Corzine-NJ can win if voters in NJ despise Christie-NJ as much as they despise Corzine. VA votes for the opposing party as the President.  Looking at other Governors Race.
Republicans are going to win the Governorship in every Southern State except for AR- which Beebe-will handily win. Republicans will pick up the Governorship in OK and TN. and hold onto AL,FL,GA,and SC.  Republicans will also pick up the Governorship of KS and WY and MI and PA two battleground states which switches parties every 8 years.
Democrats will pickup the Governorships in AZ,CA,HI,MN,and VT. RI is a tossup with either Chaffee or DEM nominee.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 17, 2009, 12:18:40 PM
2009 Governors Race Prediction
NJ- Corzine-D narrowly win re-election.
VA- McDonnell-R defeats Deeds-D by a high single digit margin. +1R
2010 Governors Race Prediction.
Democratic Retention.
1)AR-Beebe-D wins re-election by a landslide margin.
2)IL-Quinn-D or Hynes-D defeats whoever the GOP nominates.
3)IA- Culver-D vs Vander Platts-R- Culver-D wins.
4)ME-OPEN- Whoever the Democrats nominate is favored to defeat whoever the Republicans nominate.
5)MD-O'Malley-D wins re-election by a double digit margin.
6)MA-Patrick-D narrowly wins a three way race. Patrick-D 40%. Baker-R 35% and Cahill-I 25%
7)NH-Lynch-D wins re-election by a landslide margin.
8)NM-OPEN- Diane Denish-D defeats whoever the Republicans nominate by a double digit margin.
9)NY- If Democrats nominate Anyone but Paterson- Cuomo,Dinapoli,Suozzi,Weiner,etc.
10)OH-Strickland-D defeats Kasich-R by a high single digit margin.
11)OR-OPEN- ex Governor John Kitzhaber-D defeats whoever the Republicans nominates by a landslide margin.
12)WI-OPEN- Barbara Lawton-D defeats either Scott Walker or Mark Neumann-R by a narrow margin.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 17, 2009, 12:30:00 PM
2010 Governors Election
Republican Retention.
1)AL- Arthur Davis-D comes up narrowly short of being the first AA Governor of Alabama- narrowly losing to Tim James.
2)AK- Parnell-R wins a first 4 year term.
3)CT- Rell-R wins re-election by a high single digit margin over whoever the Democrats nominate.
4)FL- McCollum-R narrowly defeats Sink-D.
5)GA- Roy Barnes-D narrowly loses a bid for a comeback.
6)ID-Otter-R wins re-election by a landslide.
7)NE-Heineman-R wins re-election by a landslide.
8)SC- Whoever the Republicans nominate will be the next Governor of SC.
9)SD- Whoever the Republicans nominate will be the next Governor of SC.
10)TX- either Hutchison or Perry is strongly favored to win.
11)UT- Herbert-R is favored to win a special election.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 17, 2009, 12:44:32 PM
Democratic Pickups.
1)AZ- Goddard-D unseats Brewer-R by a narrow margin.
2)CA- Brown-D defeats whoever the Republicans nominate.
3)HI- Ambercrombie-D defeats Aiona-R.
4)MN- Whoever the Democrats nominate- Ryback or Dayton will be the next Governor of MN.
5)VT- Whoever the Democrats nominate- Racine or Markowitz will be the next Governor of VT.

Governors Races in RI-is a tossup between Chaffee-I or Whoever the Democratic nominee is.
NV- Gibbons will lose in the primary. If Democrats will nominate Rory Reid- who will lose to a generic Republican opponent- Brian Sandoval.  If Oscar Goodman enters- it will be a close 3 way race with Goodman-I winning.

Republican pickups.
1)CO- Ritter-D narrowly loses to McInnis-R.
2)IA- Branstad-D vs Culver-R
3)KS- Brownback-R is the next Governor of KS.
4)MI- Cox-R narrowly defeats Cherry-D.
5)OK- Fallin-R defeats whoever the Democrats nominate.

6)PA- Corbett-R narrowly defeats whoever the Democrats nominate.
7)TN- Whoever the Republicans nominate will be the next Governor of TN.
8)WY- whoever the Republicans nominate will be the next Governor of WY.

No significant change in the Governorship breakdown.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 20, 2009, 12:54:19 PM
It's not to say that the GOP isn't favored to win in MI or PA or WI but those states are must win states critical to electoral victory in 2012.  We must hold those states if we have any chance in OH or CO or NV or even FL in 2012.  Back in the past, those states changed parties when the GOP were winning federal races back in the 90's.  Those aren't GOP trending states and the Dems will have a playing field in WI, PA, and MI in 2010.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 21, 2009, 10:04:18 AM
During the 1990 and 1994 Governors Races. Republicans won the governorships in California(Pete Wilson-R),Illinios(Jim Edgar-R),Iowa(Terry Brandstad-R),Massachusetts(Bill Weld-R),Michigan(John Engler-R),Minnesota(Arne Carlson-R),New Hampshire(Steve Merill-R),Ohio(George Voinovich-R),and Wisconsin(Tommy Thompson-R). and Bill Clinton carried those states in 1992 and 1994.
Looking at the State which sent Republicans to the governorships in 1994 that voted Democratic at the presidential level.- Connecticut-(John Rowland/Jodi Rell-R), New York (George Pataki-R), Pennsylvania(Tom Ridge-R),and Rhode Island(Lincoln Almond/Don Carcieri-R).
Having a Democratic governor in Michigan,Ohio,Pennsylvania,and Florida is critical in the 2012 Congressional redistricting effort.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 21, 2009, 12:10:32 PM
As we saw in the 2006 campaign cycle, the GOp was ahead in those states at this point during the campaign.  I am rooting for Knox in PA, he would have the best chance of beating Corbett.

As far as AZ goes, if the polling persist like it is, she won't run in the primary.  AZ is like MO, it likes its checks and balances but McCain can help anyone but Brewer win a state wide race.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on November 29, 2009, 03:13:19 PM
     Is Dave Freudenthal considering retiring or has he become unpopular? I find it odd that so many people think the Republicans will pick up the Governor's Mansion in Wyoming.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 29, 2009, 04:00:50 PM
     Is Dave Freudenthal considering retiring or has he become unpopular? I find it odd that so many people think the Republicans will pick up the Governor's Mansion in Wyoming.

He's term-limited; he's made noises about challenging the term limit law in court, but he's been dragging his feet on it, so everyone is probably assuming he's not going to do that.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on November 29, 2009, 04:13:29 PM
     Is Dave Freudenthal considering retiring or has he become unpopular? I find it odd that so many people think the Republicans will pick up the Governor's Mansion in Wyoming.

He's term-limited; he's made noises about challenging the term limit law in court, but he's been dragging his feet on it, so everyone is probably assuming he's not going to do that.

     Okay, that makes sense. I haven't been following much of the 2010 elections until now, so I couldn't figure out why so many people figured the Republicans would win it, especially since this site lists it as an incumbent-held seat rather than an open one.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Psychic Octopus on November 29, 2009, 04:17:59 PM
I hope we nominate Campbell, Whitman is weak and has many faults.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Psychic Octopus on November 29, 2009, 04:21:00 PM
Also, comment my predictions! >:(


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Ronnie on November 29, 2009, 04:57:55 PM
I hope we nominate Campbell, Whitman is weak and has many faults.

But Whitman has $$$


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on November 29, 2009, 06:53:55 PM
I hope we nominate Campbell, Whitman is weak and has many faults.

     Nominating Campbell would be very good. Nominating Poizner would be good too. Nominating Whitman would be disastrous.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 09, 2009, 04:24:22 AM
Why bother? You'll lose.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Sbane on January 06, 2010, 02:05:41 AM
I hope we nominate Campbell, Whitman is weak and has many faults.

     Nominating Campbell would be very good. Nominating Poizner would be good too. Nominating Whitman would be disastrous.

Yeah, basically. If Republicans don't want to win they will nominate Whitman, which I predict is exactly what will happen.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: prestontakata on February 15, 2010, 05:50:42 PM
Right now, Artur Davis is probably going to barely win Alabama. The GOP nominee is most likely going to be Byrne or Moore, which are both far less popular than Davis. Davis has the younger people, much of the urban areas, the black belt, etc. behind him. He has just enough to pull it off. Though, whomever the GOP nominee will be, he or she will most likely place emphasis the success of the Riley (R) administration.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Hash on February 15, 2010, 06:04:43 PM
Right now, Artur Davis is probably going to barely win Alabama. The GOP nominee is most likely going to be Byrne or Moore, which are both far less popular than Davis. Davis has the younger people, much of the urban areas, the black belt, etc. behind him. He has just enough to pull it off. Though, whomever the GOP nominee will be, he or she will most likely place emphasis the success of the Riley (R) administration.

Can Davis win enough white voters, that's the question. Obama pretty much had all blacks, young'uns and urban voters in 2008 but only got 38.7%. The make-or-break for Davis is his ability to appeal to conservative whites.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Bo on February 15, 2010, 06:06:54 PM
Here's one I'm willing to make right now:

Andrew Cuomo: 67.98%
GOP Sacrificial Lamb:29.64%
Other:2.38%


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: prestontakata on February 16, 2010, 08:23:51 AM
Right now, Artur Davis is probably going to barely win Alabama. The GOP nominee is most likely going to be Byrne or Moore, which are both far less popular than Davis. Davis has the younger people, much of the urban areas, the black belt, etc. behind him. He has just enough to pull it off. Though, whomever the GOP nominee will be, he or she will most likely place emphasis the success of the Riley (R) administration.

Can Davis win enough white voters, that's the question. Obama pretty much had all blacks, young'uns and urban voters in 2008 but only got 38.7%. The make-or-break for Davis is his ability to appeal to conservative whites.

He has the best chance. He's currently leading all projected GOP candidates. He's just too popular to lose. If he can win the key counties in the urban areas, ~30% of the rural white vote, the african american vote, etc. he will win. I'm fairly confident he will be the next governor.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: prestontakata on February 16, 2010, 08:24:57 AM
Right now, Artur Davis is probably going to barely win Alabama. The GOP nominee is most likely going to be Byrne or Moore, which are both far less popular than Davis. Davis has the younger people, much of the urban areas, the black belt, etc. behind him. He has just enough to pull it off. Though, whomever the GOP nominee will be, he or she will most likely place emphasis the success of the Riley (R) administration.

Can Davis win enough white voters, that's the question. Obama pretty much had all blacks, young'uns and urban voters in 2008 but only got 38.7%. The make-or-break for Davis is his ability to appeal to conservative whites.

He has the best chance. He's currently leading all projected GOP candidates. He's just too popular to lose. If he can win the key counties in the urban areas, ~30% of the rural white vote, the african american vote, etc, which he currently has support from all those, he will win. I'm fairly confident he will be the next governor.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 14, 2010, 09:11:34 PM
Right now, Artur Davis is probably going to barely win Alabama. The GOP nominee is most likely going to be Byrne or Moore, which are both far less popular than Davis. Davis has the younger people, much of the urban areas, the black belt, etc. behind him. He has just enough to pull it off. Though, whomever the GOP nominee will be, he or she will most likely place emphasis the success of the Riley (R) administration.

Can Davis win enough white voters, that's the question. Obama pretty much had all blacks, young'uns and urban voters in 2008 but only got 38.7%. The make-or-break for Davis is his ability to appeal to conservative whites.

He has the best chance. He's currently leading all projected GOP candidates. He's just too popular to lose. If he can win the key counties in the urban areas, ~30% of the rural white vote, the african american vote, etc, which he currently has support from all those, he will win. I'm fairly confident he will be the next governor.

It would be wonderful to see a Black Democrat as Governor of Alabama :)


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: ajc0918 on March 14, 2010, 10:43:57 PM
Right now, Artur Davis is probably going to barely win Alabama. The GOP nominee is most likely going to be Byrne or Moore, which are both far less popular than Davis. Davis has the younger people, much of the urban areas, the black belt, etc. behind him. He has just enough to pull it off. Though, whomever the GOP nominee will be, he or she will most likely place emphasis the success of the Riley (R) administration.

Can Davis win enough white voters, that's the question. Obama pretty much had all blacks, young'uns and urban voters in 2008 but only got 38.7%. The make-or-break for Davis is his ability to appeal to conservative whites.

He has the best chance. He's currently leading all projected GOP candidates. He's just too popular to lose. If he can win the key counties in the urban areas, ~30% of the rural white vote, the african american vote, etc, which he currently has support from all those, he will win. I'm fairly confident he will be the next governor.

I believe he was only leading in one poll, and it was within the margin...


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Psychic Octopus on March 14, 2010, 10:55:33 PM
Michigan: GOP Wins.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Bo on March 18, 2010, 12:13:30 AM
PA: GOP wins by less than 9.86%.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Niemeyerite on March 18, 2010, 02:20:53 PM
I think that if Ron Sparks wins D's nomination, he wins the General Election. If the nominee is Davis, the race is a toss up.


Title: Re: Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races
Post by: Holmes on March 29, 2010, 08:52:10 PM
That's right, going against the grain here. Predicting Texas as a Dem pickup.