Talk Elections

Is there a clear Democratic nominee to trash that RINO John McCain yet? Too bad Barack Obama chose Janet Napolitano for Secretary of Homeland Security.

Republican hold, no doubt about it. Although Democratic gain in the Governor's race.

John McCain is the greatest Senator from Arizona!

1 - McCain is not a RINO, hes more of a liberal when republicans are in power and a conservative when they are out.  Yes he has some issues, but has been a fairly solid vote for us recently and I would prefer him any day over a dem nominee.

2 - Nappy (what this AZ resident and most other AZ residents call Napolitano) is not as strong of a candidate as the national talk suggests.  She left office with a gigantic budget gap and has raised different taxes including the state sales tax, tourism taxes, et. al.  Couple that with the vetos of voter passed initiatives - any candidate has a lot to run on.

3 - There is also a national dialogue that Arizona is a moderate and even liberal state now.  This is false.  Arizona only gets a few democrats when there are waves or when our governor has been scandalized, and even then, we've elected republicans.  Republicans control the state legislature and senate, along with the national senate, where we have one senator (Kyl) who is hardline conservative.  Giffords, Mitchell and Kirkpatrick will all be picked off in 2 - 6 years.  Mitchell will be the first to go. Even without McCain on the ticket, AZ would have likely still gone red because Maricopa county (the major population center) is deeply conservative.  The areas that help democrats are the indian reservations and Tucson, which is primarily a city that is made up of college students who dont leave.

4 - Isnt it weird that each of our last three governors have all had the first three letters (Jan) in their names and have all been women. (Jane Hull, Janet Napolitano, Jan Brewer)

5 - Brewer is in deep trouble unless she is able to deftly handle her inter-party enemies.  She also will have to overcome the fact that she wanted to raise the state sales tax (though she failed).  Terry Goddard our AG is an excellent candidate (and is the only democrat I have ever voted for).

6 - The real trash in our state is Andrew Thomas (R) and Phil Gordon (D) who are practically crime lords working together with their schemes.  Thomas was the one running against Goddard when I voted for Goddard.

The Arizonan  is a huge joke. He PMs me asking if it's possible to be a jew and a conservative.

The Arizonan is obviously a troll.

Are you serious?  McCain isn't going anywhere.

Azmagic8, thank you for your great job of analyzing your state. I learned a lot just by reading your post. Kudos :)

My take is that Arizona is becoming more moderate and will transcend into a battleground state in 2012. My reasoning behind this is simply that John McCain performed worse in his home state than George W. Bush did four years earlier, and while I understand that 2004 and 2008 were two entirely different election cycles, it just surprises me how McCain was not able to win his state by a larger margin. He's served as U.S. Senator from Arizona for how long now, 30+ years? Most Senators who have served that long have built up stature and should be indestructible in statewide elections. However, it may not have been all McCain's fault himself as it may have been his terrible selection as Sarah Palin as his running mate. Her divisive rhetoric (Obama palling around with terrorists, the pro-American parts of the country, etc.) and deeply conservative views on the social issues probably didn't play so well in Arizona, particularly among the state's growing Latino community. One also has to consider that as well - the growing Latino population will definitely make Arizona a swing state in 2012 especially if it's a neutral or another relatively Democratic year and if Republicans keep up their anti-immigration talk (insert Chris Simcox into this equation). Simcox is definitely going to attack McCain from the right and will grill him on his "pro-amnesty" views on illegal immigration, which I think puts McCain in a bind: if he goes Tom Tancredo style, he risks alienating the state's large Latino community and that will hurt him in the general election; however, if he stays the course and sticks to his "liberal" views on immigration, it may antagonize the far-right wingers who mostly vote in GOP primaries, so anything is possible - it just depends on *which* McCain we see emerge. I still think he will retain his seat simply for the fact that Senators who have served as long as he has are probably going to be there until they retire or die. I think McCain will stick to his position simply because he's the incumbent, his seniority status, he has statewide name recognition, and with Janet Napolitano out of the way, he doesn't have to worry about a serious threat from a Democrat in the general election.

On a side note: regarding presidential elections again, I think the only way Republicans will hold onto Arizona in 2012 is if Obama becomes another Jimmy Carter, the economy tanks and Republicans come back into power in a repeat of the 1994 Republican Revolution. Either way, I won't be surprised if the pundits list Arizona as a swing state in 2012.

McCain is a slimebag!

First, McCain is a total slimebag!

Second, yes, Janet got out of Dodge before the budget she engineered collapsed.

Third, Giffords is going to go next year (Mitchell with probably join her).

Fourth, yeah, interesting.  But at least we got rid of the "Sue Nation."

Fifth, Brewer probably isn't going to run for election after her campaign for higher taxes.

Sixth, Thomas is OK, but Gordon is slime.

Giffords have a tier 3 opponent.  If Tim Bee couldnt come close to beating her, this guy isnt either. 

I know both Tim and Keith, and Tim was (is) a putz (Keith's a good guy).

I reported on the campaign in 2008.

Giffords is bedoming arrogant and unresponsive to her constituents who are very unhappy with her and her activities as Nancy's little helper.

You said the exact same thing in before 2008.   And you cannot say the same thing about Mitchell.  He voted against the stimulus, against the Obama budget, and against Cap and Trade. 

I wanted to address the "Arizona is becoming moderate" comments and your comments here.  The reason why Arizona is not moving on the political scale leftward is because we are receiving an influx of conservative voters ditching California for here.  If your only data points are the democrats who won election during democrat wave years and McCains national performance, you aren't paying attention to the ground level stuff going on here.  There has only been one democrat to take this prize in a long while and it was Bill Clinton, who was by 1996 for all intents and purposes campaigning more conservatively than Bob Dole was.  Anecdotally, we have some of the most conservative subsections of a major city in the entire country.  ASU in Tempe is one of the most conservative schools in the country - meaning there isnt just a single token conservative teaching there and the students are fairly conservative as well.  Scottsdale is full of rich, young and old conservatives and East Phoenix, where I live is old money.  Mesa is practically the second Salt Lake City without the beauty for all intents and purposes (and AZ residents will know what I mean when I say that).  Chandler and Gilbert are full of evangelical Christians and Mormons as well.  Even the Latinos here are fairly conservative.  Its actually interesting, some of the more rural (I should say foresty) areas are more liberal - like Sedona where the artists are.

And CarlHayden, love the name btw.  Remember Tokyo Rose Mofford.  I can't believe how beloved she is now.  Our governors tend to be really involved in the community.  Fife was even a chef at this restaurant by my work Francos, before it closed down.  Check your Thomas history though, he was involved in some money scandal awhile back, that he has now entirely covered up with the help of his buddy Gordon (who just happened to endorse Thomas in 2008 for county attorney and I think even did ads with him).

Yeah, I remember 'beehive' Rose.

I agree with your most recent post (except the AG candidate part).

Oh, and btw, there is one thing I will never forgive Fife for, i.e. rescuing a SOB when Fife was a lifeguard.

Oh, and one significant factor you left out in Arizona's population growth is that a lot of members of the armed forces (Air Force, Army and Marines) are stationed at one time in Arizona, and end up buying houses and retiring here.  We have one of the highest rates of retired military in the general population of any state in the nation.

Just curious, who is this magical Republican candidate that's going to defeat Giffords in 2010?

Arizona has a 'resign to run' law which states that if you are not in the last year of your term of office and you announce your candidacy, you forfeit your office.

So, you'll have to wait.

There is a line forming to get at Giffords, who has been antagonizing long time supporters with her arrogance and fawning on Pelosi.

Giffords seems to (erroneously) believe that a campaign war chest indicates one's likelihood of sucess in an election.

There was a candidate for the Democrat party nomination for Governor of Virginia this year who could disabuse her of that notion (but, she wouldn't listen).

There doesnt have to be a magical candidate to beat Giffords.  The AZ GOP bench is about as big as the state.  Even successful businessmen or could run and make it into congress.  I imagine there is an army of legislators in the state senate looking at the race.

Napolitano is an idiot.

John McCain is going to vote against Sotomayor. I bet that's going to heavily factor into his chances for reelection.

He will probably still win, but it will probably cost the RSCC money to retain him for the next congress.

Only if he has a primary challenge and even then.  The no vote on Sotomayor actually helps McCain - AZ is a very red state despite the rumors to the contrary.

I have liberal and conservative family in Tucson, but that is the liberal bastion of AZ. Also some more rural areas are surprisingly liberal.

AZ in a nutshell:
Foresty areas - artists, Wiccans, communes with logging and other communities, balances out to a small liberal advantage
Urban areas - incredibly conservative whites and Mexicans, Scottsdale is full of rich white liberals, east Phoenix (where I am) are middle class conservatives, Chandler and Mesa are mormon and middle class meccas, Tempe (ASU) is full of conservative students and believe it or not professors, Tucson (U of A) the liberal college in Arizona
Rural areas without reservations - conservative
Rural areas with Indian reservations - liberal
Mining towns - conservative

yeah my grandpa went to u of a. my moms uncle was a draft dodger during nam but mo udall saved his ass.

I go to ASU right now, my friends at U of A are incredibly socialist.  For some reason they love it and stay down there.  I don't know why, the place practically shuts down at 6pm and the rattlesnakes are pretty nasty there too - as a side note. :)

And the heat is terrible! Ack! But yes, someone from my high school is going to ASU I forgot which one.

Nah dude, the heat is great!  It isn't the heat where sweat doesn't evaporate because of the humidity and I think you can breathe better.

No, AZ has a miserable heat. I know heat. I live in Bakersfield, CA. We got heat!

Actually, my friends all laugh at me when I speak of the glories of 100+ degree weather.  Seriously, you live here long enough its natural.  What's unnatural is when it dips to 60 degrees and it feels like the arctic tundra.

ugh, does your part of AZ get monsoons? We had some in Tucson. Yuck.

Yes, there are two seasons - the dry monsoon season and the wet monsoon season.  We are in the wet monsoon season (paradoxically with no wetness :) )

That's awfully optimistic considering the way congressional seats in AZ have been quickly flipping R to D. I won't outright dismiss your assertion that AZ hispanics are conservative (3rd+ generation hispanics voting GOP like in Texas?) but the continued rapid growth of hispanics into AZ is a very negative demographic trend for the GOP there, as are the growing retirement communities--not as heavily Jewish northern democrats in their voting as say south Florida, but certainly enough to make AZ increasingly competitive.

BTW: If you want to explain 1996 as Clinton being "as conservative and candidate as Dole" I believe you will be very disappointed with future elections results in the Canyon State.

You have to know a few more details to make that assessment though.  They "quickly flipped" R to D in wave elections where I might add in (2006) 1 district we had JD Hayworth who was smeared with false charges of corruption with Abramoff (though he was cleared completely) and in another we had an inexperienced immigration activist running in a fairly moderate but republican territory.  In 2008, again we had a terrible candidate (a public policy analyst) against the backdrop of Rick Renzi's scandals - and it was another Wave election.  If anything AZ is becoming more conservative - you forget we have a neighbor (California) that is driving conservatives out of its own state into ours.  We have tons of hispanics here.  I walk outside I see five hispanics at any given moment - doesn't seem to be changing much of anything.  The 1st and 2nd gen hispanics moving in have ties to many of the 3rd gen hispanics and are influenced heavily by them.

Clinton ran as a conservative to win re-election and campaigned on welfare reform and a whole bevy of things that the republican congress did.  Dole campaigned as a moderate (bipartisanship) and lost - just like all of the moderates do from our party in presidential elections, unless they campaign as conservatives (Bush 1's first term & Reagan coattails, Bush 2s first & second term). Dole also had a terrible campaign organization - look at our maps here.  The major population center (filled with just as many hispanics as whites) Maricopa county is like our version of Los Angeles County.  A democrat has to practically break even there, run up the Pima county and Tucson margins to even win the state.  That's not easy to do at all.

God, I hate the stupid "conservatives are leaving California" meme. It's almost as dumb as the "Masshole liberals are invading New Hampshire!" one. If people are leaving California, it's not because it's not conservative enough for them, it's cause the state is basically hanging on a thread and the state government is doing sh**t about it. And why would they leave one state with a sh**tty housing market to a state with a crappier one?

True dat. VERY few people are leaving their family, friends and neighborhoods to escape the entire state of Cali for being too liberal. Among those tiny few one of the big reasons someone would be that motivated to leave by conservatism is white flight from the reapid growth of Hispanics. AZ accordingly ain't gonna be on their short list of places to move.

100% agreed

Its not about the housing market its about the cost of living.  If you have a state like California that taxes practically everything, then businesses move elsewhere.  Businesses have been moving to the friendliest states - as have jobs (though right now everyone is losing jobs).  They move to the states that are the most fertile for job growth.  And these people have been leaving California for the last 10 years.

Badger, its likely (I wont concede), had McCain not been on the ticket Arizona would have been closer - say like +3-5 for the Republican ticket.  There were other candidates (Romney for example) who had strong mormon support - and Chandler and Mesa, two of our biggest cities have the second biggest mormon population in the country.

Have you ever been to Arizona before?  Lived here?  I don't think you have.  I have been to Ohio many times before and I don't go around making up crazy trends going on in Ohio.  I don't say that there is this massive conservative movement going on there.  Why? Because I don't know the state.  I have lived here for 12 years, studied its politics for just about as long, know every major city, sector and how they vote.  Your assumption that AZ is just going liberal is based on how its such a cool place to live and how the west is so cool and because of NV, CO and NM.  I know that type.  It's the type that says well if its a pretty state it has to go liberal, that there has to be this wave of "open-minded" liberals just waiting at the doorstep to change the state to its "rightful" liberal heritage.  You aren't focusing on whats going on on the ground, migration patterns or the fact that democrats hardly win here at all (WAVE elections or incompetent candidates).  Nor do you look at how our propositions come out or the fact that we have republicans holding office in a vast majority of elected positions.

Like I alluded to before, Tucson would have to surpass Phoenix in population (something that will never happen) before this state ever starts becoming a true swing state.

All is fine, but I am curious on the Gay Marriage Amendment. Not necessarily the first one that lost, but even the second one that one which passed by a margin(56%) more consistent with Wisconsin(57%) and Oregon(57%) than with a state like Ohio(62%). It could be that its polarized, but think there is at least libertarian element if not a socially liberal one.

Yeah, there is a libertarian element in the state.  It just gets balanced by the massive amount of hispanics and mormons which are incredibly socially conservative.  We do have a large group of gays in Phoenix though (and at the McCain headquarters during the election, there were a bunch where I worked).  The state is becoming "gay-er" (not to be interpreted negatively), just not any less conservative.

Only went there once for a week in February last year. Very pleasant. That hardly makes me an expert, of course, but your argument fails to dissuade me that AZ isn't trending Dem, albeit slower than some other western states like Nevada.

Before we get too worked up about "forcasting wild trends", please note that my prediction of a +1 to -1 R advantage without McCain isn't too far off from your own +3 to +5 R prediction. I don't know this "AZ is turning blue because the west is a cool place too live" argument you speak of, but if you'll reread my post a bit closer you'll see that I made no such claim.

Relax dude. I'm not claiming AZ is a purple state like CO, or NV---yet. But your "strongly conservative" state has undeniably been hemorrhaging Republicans in its congressional delegation the last 3 years, (and all 3 Dems elected since then winning handily this time around). More importantly, you fail to address why the very heavy influx of Latinos into AZ isn't shifting AZ blue to the point where it will be a bona fide swing state within 10 years, and is certainly at least reachable for Obama in 2012.

Not if he doesn't get his sh**t together.  So far he's turning out to be a sad joke.

Not really.

Hey sorry there, I was a little sharp.  I'm just taking cues from some of my liberal friends who seriously have that "Arizona is this superior state and should be liberal mindset".  I shouldn't apply it to all.  The influx of Latinos is primarily illegal and unless there is amnesty, which I very well believe there could be soon - the state won't turn.  The point I make about the congressional delegation is that these races are primarily flukes.  Both 2006 and 2008 were Wave election years (incumbents in 2008 also had extremely weak challengers) and I mentioned the scandal taint in two of the races.  There is only one congressional district of those particular three where the influx of latinos really come into play, and thats Giffords, and Giffords' constituents are not happy with her because of how much she votes in line with Pelosi.  I mentioned before that AZ has also had an influx of conservative business-minded Californians - this balances the amount of legal Latinos coming into the state.  Now, we should be gaining 1 or 2 congressional seats once this new census comes around.  Our congressional seats are districted by an independent commission (2 dems, 2 reps, 1 indy i think).  Now, if those seats fall to democrats as soon as they are put in, I'll lean more towards your theory.

Obama himself will have trouble winning this state the next time around unless we nominate like Jindal or something (Im a Palin supporter, and do not think she is stupid, though the majority of the forum seems to).  I know a lot of people here who voted for him and have experienced buyer's remorse.  I know thats anecdotal, but that's whats going on.  The only way I think he wins is if he receives a landslide in 2012 and who knows whats going to happen with that - right now, it isn't looking so hot from all the people he soured in the healthcare debate.  Once you go to strongly disapprove, it's very difficult to get those voters back.

No prob, man.

The high number of immigrants coming to AZ are undoubtedly illegal and can't vote. But that's the status for most of the southwest for 30+ years, and like it ofr not their kids born here are citizens who can and will vote. Again, bad trends for the AZ GOP as far as I can see.; If you're hoping on conservative refugees from Cali to counteract that wave, well, good luck.

The difficulty with that analysis is that you and others expect hispanics to be a monolithic voting bloc for the the democratic party like the blacks.  Hispanics are not as monolithic, and their voting patterns will rest upon two things (amnesty is not one):

1)perception of increased level of status in society
2)the party that adequately represents them with candidates who are hispanic

No party can claim item 1 right now and I will say that item 2 is favoring democrats right now.  It all depends on the future.

Hispanics don't need to be as monolithicly Democratic in their voting as say African-Americans (or Native Americans, or even Jewish Americans for that matter) for this to spell big trouble for the AZ GOP. All we need is close to the trend of voting about 2-1 Democratic as in the last election, and AZ will turn increasingly purple. It was closer to 60/40 in AZ last time, but as the minority voting map recently posted in another thread shows this was an aberration of relatively high GOP minority vote in AZ and Alaska for obvious home state reasons. Even a regular variance between 2-1 and 60/40 is good news for southwestern Democrats.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#AZP00p1

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1

Simply put AZmagic, if the last 20 years are any guide I wouldn't count on the GOP--especially in AZ with a base that seems rabidly anti-"amnesty" (I hate that misleading term, but that's another debate) and sympathetic to the radical minuteman groups--making an effective outreach to hispanic voters to avoid the inevitable coming demographic changes.