Talk Elections

Which party is more likely to
(1) keep sectarian violence and Kashmir violence in check?
(2) push through necessary ambitious reforms to sustain strong economic growth?

1) Congress
2) Congress

I didnt know that you guys were interested in Indian politics. I am happy to see that you are.(U remember I'm an Indian-American right?? :))

I highly recommend it to everyone else as well. The Indian political theatre is one of the most complex and interesting ANYWHERE in the world.!!

Unfortunately I dont have time to discuss tomorrows elections in detail. I would have but I didnt know people are interested.

You can refer to these links for some decent coverage of the election:

http://www.ndtv.com/elex2003/default.asp

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/election

http://inhome.rediff.com/election/poll03.htm

Happy surfing!! :D

With "theatre" being the key word ;)

This round of elections won't be crucial to the general; India has a multi-party system and these elections are INC v BJP dogfights.

The outcome of the Uttar Pradash election(and subsequent turmoil ending in Yadev taking over...again) does seem to have had a more direct impact than the current round.

Hi evryone, I deeply regret to announce a sweeping BJP victory in these vital provincial elections.

They have swept the states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh (near three-fourths majority) and look like they have evn wrested the state of Chhatisgarh which had a progressive Christian Chief Minister (whom of course they vilified as being anti-hindu and part of a worldwide Christian conspiracy)

The Silver Lining is a sweeping congress victory in the prestigious territory of Delhi (where the central government is based)

To be fair there were justified reasons for anti-incumbency in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh where governance was terrible. This was more of an anti-congress vote which happened to benefit the BJP as the main opposition.

In Delhi which had a sucessful congress govt. the voters bucked the trend and delivered a two-third legislative majority to incumbent Congress CM Sheila Diksh**t.

Chhatisgargh is the only case of a performing government kicked out because of the BJP's communal and hate-based campaign.
Shows it can still work in some areas.

Not a reason to dispair yet for India's secular identity but serious reason for worry. If nationally the congress party is unable to provide a decent govt. then that leaves no real national opposition for the BJP to win a majority at the center on its own (the end of India as we know it :( ). Okay that may be a bit harsh but lets just say I'm not looking forward to that prospect.

()

Blue- Congress
Saffron- BJP
Yellow - Other

As I expected...

However on the bright side the BJP have collapsed in Uttar Pradash and Yadev's Socialists(sorry I can't remember how to spell their proper name. I think it's Samajvadi) look to be sweeping it in the general election(with the BSP getting seriously hurt by the Taj Mahal affair), and these results show that a wave of anti-incumbency is sweeping India...

Also the Commies(CPI-M) should do well in West Bengal again and Southern Indians hate the BJP.

Congress have agreed to co-operate with the Left haven't they?

I am afraid that NDA at this stage will surge to victory in 2004.  I feel that BJP and INC are evenly matched but the distribution of BJP and INC support hurts INC.  INC strength tends to be spread across India, while the BJP is strong in the Hindi heartland and weak in the South.  This actually helps the BJP in alliance making.  Its strength in places like UP and Bihar makes it possible that if it just ropes in a few allies it could surge to victory in this first-past-the-post system.  The rise of BSP in the North also hurts the INC who traditionally votes INC.  The BJP is weak in the South so it has NO CHANCE of winning unless it attaches itself to some reginal party, like BJD in Orissa, DMK/AIADMK in TN, TDP in AP, and JD(U) in KT.    INC, on the other hand, are strong in the South.  But it is strong enough to make a bid for power on its own but not strong enough to stop an alliance of the BJP and a reginal party.  It is in the regional party's intrest to ally with BJP as if they do not hand togeather they hang seperately.  

I think in UP next year it is a no-win for INC.  If it makes an alliance with BSP, then BJP and SP will make a de facto alliance and surge to victory.  If it goes it alone, BJP, BSP and SP will split the seats.  If it makes an alliance with SP, that would anger the BSP which in turn could hurt INC in other states, like MP, Rajastan, Gujarat and so on where the the anti-BJP vote will be split and throw the elections to the BJP.  

Well from what I hear the INC has FINALLY agreed to accept formal alliances, which is a good thing.
The SP will probably sweep UP, so it's vital that Congress build bridges with Yadev.

Problem with an INC-Left Front alliance is that it might not work on the ground.  Left Front (mostly CPM and CPI) only strong in Tipura, West Bengal, and Kerela.  In all three cases their main rival in the staet is the INC.  In WB, it is reall a three cornered contest with the Left Front, INC, and BJP-AITC.  In all three states the local INC would not accept any accomodation with their longtime rival, the Left.  This makes allaince making very difficult.  I guess In WB it is possible the Left Front and INC can form an alliance but the INC splinter AITC has been in the decline and INC had hoped to rope it back into the mother party.  The AITC is very hostile to Left Front so again at the local level it is difficult.

Simply put, for an alliance to work, it would involve support by the Left Front for INC in all states where it is marginal.  In return, Left Front would obviously demand that INC support it in the three states mentioned.  Local INC activitists would oppose that and if a deal is made over their head they might defect to BJP.  Truely between a rock and a hard place.

Even though my views are to the Right I am very hostile to the BJP and prefer the center-left INC or even the Left Front in India.  This is because of the BJP's Hindu extremist nature.  One example is what happend to Gujurat a couple of years ago.  An incompent BJP state government was clearly head toward defeat.  But the BJP led by Modi wipped up a pogram targeted at the Muslims that lead to the death of several thousand innocent n Gujurat, mostly Muslims.  That the Modi and his BJP goons would kill several thousands people just to win an election just makes me sick.  BTW, it worked.  A year ago the BJP won in a landslide based on the anti-Moslim riots.  It captured about 125 out of 180 seats.  It is intresting to note that the about 100 districts affected by riots the BJP won nearly all of them.  It only won about 25 of the 80 some seats not affected by the riots.  Projecting these results it is clear that the BJP would have been ousted if it was not for the anti-Mulsim riots.
Truely a record to be shameful of.

Breaking news.  In Tamil Nadu, the DMK has left the NDA and its ministers in the NDA government has resigned.  This could lead to realignments ahead of the 2004 Lok Shaba election in Tamil Nadu.  Now there could be a DMK-INC-Left Front alliance in the 2004 polls.  This also could lead to an alliance of the ruling AIADMK and the BJP.  Of course, given the ego of AIADMK supermo Jayalalitha, she might not want to give any significant number of seats to the BJP and the election in TN might turn into a three-way race with BJP way behind.  MDMK might back BJP but its appeal is limited in TN.  Both Jayalalitha of AIADMK in TN and Yadav of SP in UP think/hope that the election in 2004 will result in neither the NDA nor INC-led bloc with a majority.  In which the AIADMK or SP could be kingmaker with the prospect of Jayalalitha or Yadav becoming PM, or so they hope.  This means both SP and AIADMK would want to contest the maximum number of seats in UP and TN and hopefully win enough chips at the post-election horse trading table.  

Under this logic, AIADMK might not want to give BJP and seats and the election in TN will mostly be a battle between DMK-INC-Left Front and AIADMK.  This does provide a ray of hope to INC which is sad shape after losing three of four assembly election in what many calls the election "playoffs" before next years "finals" of the Lok Shaba polls.  

A ray of hope for INC.

In Tamil Nadu a powerful front of DMK, MDMK, PMK, INC, CPM, and CPI seems to have been formed.  BJP now stands alone in TN and will have to align with AIADMK.  AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha already said that it will contest at least 33 of 39 TN seats.  BJP might have to accept such terms less it gets wiped out in TN.  Even if a AIADMK-BJP front is formed most likely it will be no match for the new DMK-led front.

NCP is moving closer to a INC-NCP alliance in Maharastra and avoid a repeat of 1999 when BJP-Shiv Shiva swept the polls there due to the split of the INC and NCP.

In critial Uttar Pradesh, SP has ruled out an alliance with BJP while INC is moving close to BSP.  In a three corned battle between SP front, BSP-INC, and BJP the BJP most likely will capture less than the 29 seats it has now.  INC-BSP alliance will also help in places like MP, Rajastan, and Gujurat.  

In Bihar, JD(U) is falling apart and the BJP is also in bad shape.  RJD is looking good and the RJD-INC will for sure gain seats over the BJP-JD(U) alliance.

In Northeast India, the NDA might gain a few seats over the INC but most likely very much.

In AP. TDP-BJP still has the edge, but if an INC-TRS-CPM alliance can be formed then it could lower the TDP-BJP total from 1999.  

If these postive trends can be consolidated when the polls come in March or May 2004, the LS elections might produce a situation where no party nor front has a majority.  Both BJP and INC will have around 150 seats or so.  This will lead to a weak and unstable coalition governments and another election might come before the 5 year team is up.

 

Jaichind--out recruiting people to vote for Atlas elections.  Just ask you to come and vote for Supersoulty when the time is right.  Take a look if you would.  Thanks.

--sorry not up on India much or I'd contribute.

He is an independent. Do you really want his vote?

Actually living in India at the moment, so I have to say something on this count:
Basically the BJP can't win much longer, the Congress can't win for the time being, and anyone else's government is going to end in rapid breakdown as it did twice before:
Vajpayee is personally much more popular than his party - I myself like the guy even though he's allied with people I'd put to the gallows if I endorsed the Death Penalty -
but he's 79 and ill. They need him to win. That there'll be early elections is partly due to this respect.
The Congress party is so dead that it's leader is the widow of the son of the last capable leader they ever had. (That she's also Italian doesn't matter to me) That it's still around is only because so many voters have nowhere else to go.
That at least is my pesimistic assessment.
My optimistic one is that Congress will overcome its earlier mistakes and form a bit broader coalition and Sonia will actually prove a capable leader and the BJP is back to fringe as soon as Vajpayee dies.

What's the chances of Congress forming a coalition with Yadev and the rest of the Left?

It's just about possible, but even if it happens it certainly wouldn't last five years.
ANother option for UP discussed in the Indian press is a formal Cong-BSP alliance and a formal SP-Left Front alliance that cooperate in a number of key seats and slings it out elsewhere. It's just talk as of now, but the Cong-BSP bit actually is starting to look likely

Interesting possibility...

BTW do you know where I can find maps of constituancies etc?

Well I believe at the Indian Parliament and the Election Commission you only get lists with the districts they're in... Yet I've seen such maps in the Deccan Herald and the Times of India concerning the state polls... Not the new results strangely, but in the pre-poll coverage they showed maps of the previous result. So maybe you should just email these people, I don't know...

I'll have another look at the electoral commision site...

Former UP CM Kalyan Singh is rejoining the BJP. He'd walked out before the last general election and set up his own outfit. It took (I think) 2 Lok Sabha seats but its five percent vote share across the state probably cost the BJP 10-12 seats. I'm not sure how they fared in the State polls since.
His party isn't following him back into the fold actually, but as he's the only prominent head most voters will. In fact it's really a caste-based "vote bank". He's the only Lodh who's made it this big, so the Lodhs vote for him...Hey, that's India!

Wouldn't this coalition try to halt privatization and de-regulation? From what I hear that would be a turn back into the past.

Funny that you should say that, with that signature...
I don't think India is overregulated, it's more like misregulated. A lot of red tape has been applied, but just not in the places where it belongs.
Basically I have the feeling that the Economic reforms of the last 15 years -initiated by the last Congress government but continued by the BJP- have done a lot to make the small middle class richer, but for the poor the best that can be said is they haven't hurt. (Hey-that means they've actually been quite succesful!)

It can now be considered pretty much established that there will indeed be Elections very soon. Pramod Mahajan. the General Secretary of the BJ, has said as much, and he hasn't hedged his comment this time: "The House will be dissolved in the first week of February."
Also the NCP is splitting up. Pawar is trying to lead it into an Alliance with the Congress from which it had split off on the question of Sonia's leadership. Some of its top brass have bolted or been expelled. They are now expected to set up their own shop and join the NDA.

Misregulated is very accurate...


BTW how well will the CPI-M do this time round?

Bad in Kerala, well in WB and Tripura is my guess. But I'm no expert on that. I don't even have a clue why the CPI and CPI-M remain split, now that Mao is dead...

"Communists in split shock" eh?
I remember the CPI-M[arxist] doing well in the WB local elections a bit ago.

No more NCP to split the vote in Maharashtra?
Excellent...

Probably more like two or even three of them...Anyway the NCP is also quite strong in Chhattisgarh and the state party chairman was among the guys trying to form an NDA-affiliated party.

AIDMK appears to have agreed to join an alliance with the BJP... while DMK seem to have agreed to join Congress in an alliance.
Which is the complete opposite of the last election...

Yeah well, whoever believes Tamil Nadu politics had anything to do with issues or principles better had his mind checked.
The NCP factions are fighting about who gets to keep the name and the symbol.
Rebellion has broken out in the Congress in Kerala, with some octogenarian leader, K.Karkulidharan or something like that, who'd been unhappy with the CM for years, having finally walked out taking 17 Assembly members with him. That's not enough for the Government to lose the majority. His son, who is an Assembly member himself, surprised everybody by not joining. (He fell short of calling his father senile though). Anyways, they will found a new party, to be known probably as Indira Gandhi Congress, and will contest elections. Nobody expects them to win much, but it might mean a worse Congress and thus a better Communist showing in the state. (The BJP doesn't figure at all in Kerala, which is only 55% Hindu but 25% Muslim and 20% Christian).

I like Kerala, it's got a high literacy rate and usually has a high turnout come election time. Also the BJP et al do badly there :)
Do you think that the CPI-M might be able to win more seats than Congress in Kerala (it's 8 each at the moment)?

Why is politics in Tamil Nadu so insanely unprincipled?
I've never been able to understand why...

Sorry, the name up there should be Karunakaran.
The Communists seemed finished for the moment in Kerala, but this thing should help them. I still can't see them winning a majority of the state's seats yet. Btw: Is that 8-8 for the two major parties or 8-8 for the two political blocks, the different leftie groups vs Congress, Muslim League and Kerala Congress (a Commie splinter-off)? Anyway, Congress is playing this secession biz cool. They just say they are not going to expel him, if he really founds his own party he's out anyway, but as for now nothing has actually happened.
The first opinion poll is out and says the NDA is increasing its position slightly, the Congress is losing seats, others pretty much unchanged. This might change if more parties ally with Congress though.
Parliament will be dissolved on February 6th, but the Election dates have not been set yet. That's done by the Electoral Commission, not the PM. There will also be state Elections in Andhra Pradesh (regional outfit TDP with BJP as junior partner vs a split opposition of Congress, AIMIM (Muslim party strong in Hyderabad, united to Cong), TRS (regional party demanding separate statehood for the Telangana) and the CPI. There were talks about an alliance but they seem to have fallen flat), Sikkim (doesn't matter), Orissa (just as Andhra, governed by regional outfit Biju JD with BJP backing. Cong only real opposition, has just recruited some rebel BJD politicos. Election one and a half years ahead of schedule), probably Karnataka (governed by Congress, but with the opposition split five way between BJP, their ally JD (U), the JD (S), the AIPJD and the Janata Party 50% of the vote should be enough for 90% of the seats. Indeed Congress talks of all Lok Sabha seats from the state and an increased majority in the Legislative Assembly, where they currently have about two thirds). Early polls in Maharashtra are also possible - it's just half a year early, as here in KA - but unlikely because the NCP is a partner in the government and obviously has no reason to want elections now.
Oh yeah, Tamil Nadu. It started when film stars entered politics. There is also the fact that DMK and AIADMK both endorse Tamil nationalism and socialist rhetoric, neither of which means anything. So effectively there is no difference between them except who runs them and who votes for them, and they can't really ally with each other as that would be kind of pointless. Similarly all the minor parties, which are effectively vote banks and include Communists and Congress, prefer to ally with the DMK simply because its smaller and therefore more ready to make seat-sharing arrangements. The BJP seems not to be active in the state at all, which I'd advise Congress to do too. But who am I for Congress to listen to me...

It's 8 CPI-M and 8 Congress. Some smaller parties have seats as well.

How reliable are polls in India? As it's such a huge and diverse country I wouldn't think very accurate... but polls in the U.K are either innacurate and/or blatently biased...


Ah... says it all really...

I don't know. They polled a remarkable number of people though, something like 15K across 20 states or something...Still, who knows what kind of people they polled...

15,000?

That's the number I remember. I read this yesterday morning, so I may be wrong. Or maybe it's a typo...But I distinctly remember it as 13,000 or 15,000.

For one poll? That'll cost a lot of money...

BTW how well will the RJD do in Bihar?
I remember them doing very badly in 1999.

Hey, I don't know everything! The RJD wants an electoral alliance with Congress, the only reason it's not finalized (in my opinion) is that Congress fears this might scare away other allies. Whatever his popularity in Bihar, which appears highly polarized, Laloo Prasad is extremely unpopular in the rest of India. Kinda like everybody's favorite whipping boy, in fact.
If anyone makes populist noises and points out being born into poverty, the other camp will shout "Lalooism!"

Is he India's answer to Huey Long? ;)

He's governing Bihar via the "Wallace method" (ie: his wife is techinically in charge, but he is pulling the strings) if I remember correctly.

Bihar has a reputation for political violence doesn't it?

Last I checked it should be an uphill struggle for the NDA this time around.  In Bihar the JD(U) is in bad shape despite the merger of the Samata Party into the JD(U) or perhaps because of it.  The BJP-JD(U) swept Bihar last time around in 1999 but that was the height of the media assult on RJD "Jungle Raj."  The amount of defections of from JD(U) and BJP to RJD are an indication that the RJD-INC-Left Front prospects are getting brighter.  While such a front on paper is powerful it still comes down with effective seat adjustment.  In Jarkarhand the NDA government is crisis prone and the JMM might very well throw its weight behind RJD-INC-Left Front.    

Well, during the last Lok Shaba election in 1999, Kalyan Singh was still in the BJP and was the CM of UP.  His relationship with the BJP was strained at that stage but did not walk out.  The Lodh community is part of the OBC (Other backward castes) group of castes and Kalyan Singh help the BJP capture a good dead of the OBC vote starting in the early 1990s despite that the fact that the BJP in UP is basically an upper caste outfit.  After a disappointing 1999 LS election in UP Kalyan Singh was eased out as CM by the upper caste establisment and he soon bolted from the BJP soon after that.  For sure he did not leave the BJP and float his own outfit before 1999 or the BJP would not even get the 29 seats in UP it got.  Kalyan Singh's outfit did participate in the 2002 UP assembly election and captured about 5 out of 425 seats available.  There are few Lodh dominated segments but they are significant in large number of districts and for now Kalyan Singh has them in his vote bank.

Kalyan Singh had shown signs of returning to the much weakened BJP but he was driving a hard bargin between the Samajwadi Party and BJP.  I guess he is going with BJP.  I was on my home province of Taiwan for Chinese New Years and did not get to read much about Kalyan Singh's return but I expect that this will acclerate INC and BSP talks in UP for an alliance as BJP just got a shot in the arm.  If the INC and BSP does not hang togeather they will hang seperately given the possible revival of the BJP and the obvious strength of the SP in UP.

The Indian Communist Party (CPI) split back in 1964 into Right and Left factions.  The Right faction controlled the party and stayed CPI and the Left faction became CPI(M) or CPM for Marxist.  The split was over the USSR-PRC split where CPI sided with USSR and CPI(M) was for PRC.  CPI also insisted that alliances with "progressive" elements of the INC was acceptable while CPI(M) has rejected the line.  CPI(M) itself broke with the PRC in 1979 when the PRC opposed the USSR intervention in Afganistan but CPI(M) as well as CPI supported it.  

The main issue is still the nature of a "progressive" centrist outfits like INC.  Whereas CPI insist that alliance with a progressive INC is possible on the long run the CPM insists that the class nature of the INC makes such an alliance impossible and hurts the working class it claims to represent.  The CPM does accept tactial alliances with the INC to defeat the BJP but no long term relationship.  There as been reunification talks between the two parties but have broken down over the issue I raised above.

Polls in India have a relatively poor record.  Mainly because the multi-polar mature of many election contests it is very difficult to translate % of the vote of each party to the number of seats each party could expect to get.  Adding the number of poeple polled will not change this.

Well, so much for the reliability of Indian newspaper reporting. That's where I got my version from. Probably they were just copying it from BJP press releases...
Kalyan Singh was allied to the SP and the RLD in the last assembly elections, I read yesterday. The RLD, strong among Jats, seems to be interested in joining a (not yet certain) Congress-BSP alliance, which would leave Mulayam Singh without his allies. The Communists will likely be allied with Congress outside their stronghold states but pretend that they aren't. They would also not join a Cong-led Ministry at the Centre but would prefer to tolerate it from the outside.

Question: what colour is used to represent Congress on maps? I know that The BJP is Orange, the Communists are Red, but I'm never sure what colour should be used for Congress.

In Black-and-White Newspapers, the Congress is White, the BJP is Grey, and all others are Black.
Green or White will do fine.
And the BJP is not orange, its saffron!

Orangy-yellow then.
Is making that mistake enough to get me on the hitlist of a bunch of Hindu extremists?

Might be.

Oh sh*t...

There's a new gigantic opinion poll by Outlook magazine and MDRA polling agency...
The NDA should get about 40,6% of the vote (up 2,1)
Congress and its Aliies should get about 37,1 (+0,4)
others about 22,3 (-2,5)
This should translate into 280-290 seats for the NDA (from 280)
159-169 for Congress and Allies (154)
89-99 for others (109)
However, the BJP is supposed to gain seats anc COngress to lose seats. Congress just has more allies this time around...

There are short state-by-state analyses of those states included in the survey:
PUNJAB Akali Dal-BJP alliance will make gains, Cong state government faction-ridden and unpopular
HARYANA Gains for Congress as INLD-BJP alliance has broken up and INLD state government is unpopular
DELHI Last time BJP swept the seven seats, Congress will wrest about half of them away
RAJASTHAN BJP will improve on the current 16-7 split
UTTAR PRADESH If BJP, SP, BSP and Cong all go it alone, as appears likely right now, expect slight gains for BJP and SP, losses for BSP, Cong stable. A BSP-Cong alliance, still possible, should make handy gains resulting in small losses for BJP and SP
BIHAR Congress-RJD alliance stronger than last time, alliance with Lok Jan Shakti will also help. JDU in disarray, BJP holding up better
CHHATTISGARH Cong in disarray after Ajit Jogi's departure. BJP might even sweep all eleven seats
ORISSA BJP-Biju JD combine will likely hold its current 19 out of 21 tally. Biju JD state government is returned on increased majority
WEST BENGAL Left Front will be dominant once again, Trinamool Congress will lose seats, Cong may gain a handful
ASSAM Last time Cong got 8 seats, Asom Gana Parishad 4, BJP 2. Since then the AGP has joined and left the NDA. The three parties are polling remarkably equal now, which means seat losses for Cong
GUJARAT Last time the BJP got 20 out of 26 seats, a slight gain now is more likely than a slight loss
MADHYA PRADESH All set for a BJP sweep
MAHARASHTRA The Cong-NCP alliance should outpoll the BJP-Shiv Sena combine, gain 10-15 seats. Central Maharashtra will go for them, and Mumbai will probably be split, but the Vidarbha (far East) and the Konkan Coast will stay with the NDA
KARNATAKA the poll predicts an outbreak of ticket-splitting here, with the BJP making gains in the Lok Sabha, to about parity with Cong, but the Cong state government reelected easily due to the remaining JDS strength. (Many people will vote NDA nationally, JDS in the state, thus splitting the vote and letting more Cong assembly members in)
ANDHRA PRADESH Congress will certainly improve on its current tally of five. The alliance with the TRS should pay rich dividends. That said, the TDP-BJP combine will still hold a majority of Andhra seats, and the TDP state government will limp into another term
TAMIL NADU The DMK-Cong-etcetera alliance is set to sweep most of the state

Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Jharkand, Goa, Kerala, the Northeastern Hill States except Assam and the Union Territories except Delhi were not included in the survey.
The pollsters identified 102 constituencies across the nation. In each of them they picked three assembly segments and, in each of these, three communities (one town and two villages in rural constituencies, three neighborhoods in urban ones). This means the mammoth poll was actually 918 simultaneous mini polls with about 130 voters in each, 12,249 in all. In each poll, they interviewed exactly 50% men and 50% women, and only one person per household.
We'll see how accurate it's going to be...

I find it hard to believe that INC will not gain a bunch of seats in Orissa.  Back in 1999 BJP-BJD took 19 of 21 seats.  This time there are significant defections from BJD to INC as well as an INC alliance with OSP.  It is really now a virtual tie.  

As for Assam, BJP and AGP talks broke down so INC might not lose that many seats.  

In Jarkrahand, the INC-JMM-RJD could capture more seats than BJP-JD(U).  

NDA will for sure lose ground in Himachral Pradesh, Uttranchal, New Dehli, Hayarana, and Kashmir/Jammu.  

It really comes down to Uttar Pradesh and it BJP and take a good deal more than the 29 seats it got in 1999.  Also, I am not so sure one can call a clean sweep for BJP over INC in Gujurat, Madaya Pradesh, Rajastan, and Chattisgrah.  The polls might show a clean sweep but I think the BJP will be luck to replicate its 1999 performance in those areas come voting day.  

The poll already assumes no alliance between AGP and BJP.

Seems the chances for a Congress-BSP alliance are off. Mayawati has said she'd go it alone because BJP, SP and Congress, accordig to her, have exactly the same ideology anyway.

I know and read the poll already on the issue of AGP and BJP.  My point is that in a multi-cornered contest the distribution of votes is far more relevent.  So even if the poll correctly estimates relative levels of support any estimate of seat totals will be quite futile.  

As for UP. I am taking a non-CW view on the non-alliance of INC with neither SP nor BSP.  I tend to think this will hurt BJP.  BJP tends to be strong in upper caste, is trying to expand its base in the backward castes and dalits.  INC used to be catch call party with weakness in the backward castes but now has only pockets of support among upper castes, dalits, and muslims.  BSP is strong among dailts and trying to move to Muslims.  SP is strong in backward castes and has significant support among Muslims.  Upper castes are very hostile to BSP and SP and the BSP case for not forming an alliance with INC is that the INC cannot transfer its upper caste vote to BSP, which is true.  The mulsims tends to support INC but switched to SP after the INC government at the center back in 1991 failed to stop the destruction of the masque at Ayodyda followed the failure of the INC government in Maharastra so stop anti-Muslim riots in Mumbai back in 1993.  If the INC goes it alone and captures back Muslim support in UP, the upper caste vote might swing back to INC and away from BJP.  For sure an  SP-INC or BSP-INC allaince will get very little upper caste support.  The upper caste vote in UP is fairly unhappy with BJP for trying to move more backward caste leaders into its leadership.  In 1999 the BJP only got 29 seats in UP as opposed to 50+ seats in 1996 and 1998 because of upper caste protest to Kaylan Sighn, himself a backward caste leader of the BJP.  The BJP after 1999 ousted Kaylan Singn to try to pull back upper caste vote and managed to preseve its base in the 2002 assembly elections.  The return of Kaylan Singh to BJP for sure wil pull in more backward caste vote for BJP but if INC goes it alone and runs a good campaign the BJP will lose the upper caste vote to INC.  So ironicly, if INC plays its cards right, the BJP will be a net loser from the failure of INC to form an alliance with either BSP or SP.

From the Hindu Part I


IF THE media were to decide elections, the general elections to the 14th Lok Sabha would be a pointless exercise. The verdict is already out: the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance is sure to return to power. Almost all sections of the media have said this from the day the NDA decided to advance the polls. Two serious nationwide surveys have supported this forecast, though in varying degrees. Add to this the umpteen number of newspaper articles, views of poll pundits and the astrologers. The hawa, as they say, favours the ruling coalition.

I am not convinced of this established wisdom. I am not convinced that it is a one-sided race all the way, that the NDA's majority is a foregone conclusion and that the Congress is about to slip down to its worst-ever performance. I am not sure that the electoral race can be called at this stage, and that even if one were to call it at this stage the results would be quite what the media think to be the case. This is, of course, not to say that there is no substance in the conventional wisdom. Nor do I dismiss the two nationwide surveys published by India Today and Outlook (I do not include in this category some other purely urban opinion polls that are hard to take seriously). It is just that years of watching elections has convinced me of the value of political commonsense and has taught me to disregard hype.

Before I set out my reasons for not subscribing to the prevailing wisdom about an NDA victory, let me first note what I believe to be valuable in this wisdom. First, it is true that the ruling coalition does not confront an electorate in a mood of total rejection of the sort we saw in the national elections of 1977, 1980, 1989 or 1996. The absence of a strong `anti-incumbency' mood at the end of a nearly full term of the government is no mean achievement.

The second element of truth in the prevailing wisdom is related to the first. It is true that at the core of this achievement for the NDA is the image of the Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, in the eyes of the public. All the opinion polls so far have shown that his image has remained remarkably unaffected by the various scams and scandals that have taken place in the last five years. He is in any case substantially ahead of the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, the only other name in the race.

And finally, there is no doubt that the organisational capacity of the BJP election machinery is way ahead of the Congress. This was clearly in evidence in the way Congress lost the Assembly elections in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The Congress may have recovered somewhat, but there are signs of the same in the Lok Sabha elections as well: the BJP is a well-oiled machine, while in the Congress the left hand does not know what the right is doing.

The question therefore is, what conclusions can one draw from these facts. It would be fair to conclude from these facts that the ruling NDA is not headed for an electoral debacle or a wipe-out of the kind many ruling parties have faced in the past. One could also conclude that the BJP-led alliance is better placed to exploit the electoral opportunities that present themselves than its rival.

But, to my mind, all this is not enough to conclude that the NDA is headed for a repeat of its performance and is sure to come back to power. For this to be true, one has to produce evidence that there is not only no anti-incumbency mood against the NDA, but also that there is a positive sentiment, something of a `feel good' factor across the country. One has to demonstrate that the preference for Vajpayee will prevail over other considerations in the voting decision. One needs to show that the BJP is already so close to the magic number that its organisational advantage is enough to make the difference. I have not yet seen evidence that convinces me on these counts. Therefore I remain an agnostic, as far as the final outcome is concerned, and wait for more reliable evidence.

A fundamental flaw in thinking about what is going to happen in this election is that we tend to see things through old frames while the political realities have changed on the ground. Gone are the days of nationwide swings in favour of one party leading to waves or sweeps in elections. Ever since 1996, the Lok Sabha elections are no longer a single nationwide race — for all practical purposes the general election now is 28 electoral races being held simultaneously; the national-level verdict is nothing but the sum total of all the State-level verdicts. A State is the effective unit of political choice even in Lok Sabha elections.

 

From The Hindu part II

Therefore, the most useful way to think about electoral prospects is to look at each State separately and assess the type of party competition, nature of social alliances and the current electoral scenario. That is what I propose to do in this series of articles. The question therefore is not whether the NDA has an advantage at the national level. That it undoubtedly has. The real question is whether the BJP and its various allies can convert this advantage into seats in each State. That remains an open question. Before we turn to each State in this series, let us begin with an overview. It may be useful to think of the coming electoral battle in terms of three battlegrounds and group all the States accordingly into one of the three types of contests.

The `Western Front,' from Punjab downwards right up to Kerala including the whole of old Madhya Pradesh, represents the zone of opportunity for the NDA. This is where it is likely to put up a good show and record gains in terms of votes and seats.

The `Eastern Front' includes all the States on the eastern coast from Tamil Nadu to West Bengal and extends to Bihar and Jharkhand on the one hand and the North-East on the other. The NDA had hit a peak here in the last election and faces an uphill task of cutting its losses to a minimum in this zone.

And finally, there is the `Northern Front' comprising Uttar Pradesh and a group of small States in the northwest. This zone is smaller than the other two but this is where the real uncertainty lies and where the real battle will be fought.

The principal nature of the political contest in the Western Front is that of the Congress versus the BJP. The NDA had bagged 108 of the 202 seats in this region in 1999 with the BJP alone getting 88. The Congress on the other hand won 70 seats with its allies adding another four. The BJP has allies only in Punjab and Maharashtra, while the Congress has allies only in Maharashtra and Kerala.

The BJP enjoys an advantage in this direct face-off with the Congress. The Congress regimes in Punjab, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala are well past their honeymoon period, while the BJP has the advantage of freshly elected regimes in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and to some extent in Gujarat. However, the NDA cannot expect to gain a large number of seats here compared to its performance in 1999. Except Punjab, Karnataka and Kerala, the NDA did very well in this entire belt. While the NDA votes may improve in Maharashtra, the Congress-NCP alliance may reduce the NDA's tally. In Kerala, the BJP is still far short of converting any gains of votes into seats. All in all, the NDA cannot expect to add more than 20 seats to its existing tally of 108 in this zone.

On the Eastern Front, the NDA will be engaged in a defensive battle. Here the contest involves principally the allies of the BJP and other regional political parties. Barring Jharkhand, none of the States will witness a direct BJP-Congress contest. Here the NDA had peaked in the previous Lok Sabha elections winning 136 of a total of 223 seats, of which 89 went to the BJP's allies.

The NDA, particularly the BJP's allies, has a lot to lose here. It nearly swept Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Jharkhand last time and will need to do exceptionally well to retain those seats. The nature of the anti-NDA coalition in Tamil Nadu and the state of the BJP's allies in Bihar and West Bengal will make it difficult for the NDA to repeat its performance in these States. The only place where the NDA can hope to retain and improve its position is Assam and other northeastern States, but then all of them account for only 25 seats. The NDA would be lucky if it contains its losses to about 40 seats. In a worst-case scenario, the losses for the NDA could go up to 60 seats or more.

That leaves the Northern Front, which itself can be divided into Uttar Pradesh and a group of small States in the northwest. The second group, comprising Jammu and Kashmi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Haryana and Delhi, accounts for 32 seats of which the Congress won only one last time. The BJP swept this region, winning 21 seats with its allies picking another six.

This time it will be very difficult for the BJP to repeat this performance, especially after the split with the Indian National Lok Dal in Haryana. In Uttar Pradesh, which should be seen as a region in itself, the situation is still unclear since the alliances are yet to be firmed up. In any case, the BJP does not have big gains to look forward to here and should be content if it can retain the 25 seats it has now. If the Congress-BSP alliance does not take place, the SP can hope to add to its tally at the expense of the rest. If the BSP and the Congress do come together, the combine could inflict considerable damages on both the SP and the BJP. The NDA cannot possibly improve upon its tally in the northern zone; its losses may vary from none to a loss of up to 20 seats.

The final overall outcome will depend upon how the electoral battle on all the three fronts plays itself out. This is not the place or the stage to speculate on what the final outcome will be. But if the scenario presented above makes any sense, at least three types of outcomes are possible. The first scenario is that of the NDA coming back with a majority, perhaps a reduced majority. The second is that of the NDA falling short of majority by a small number, say up to 20. In that case the anti-NDA parties would still be considerably behind the NDA and the latter could draw upon some unattached parties such as the SP to form the Government.

But if the NDA does poorly in any two of the three battlegrounds, especially if the Congress-BSP alliance comes about, a third possibility is also open. The combined strength of the Congress, its allies and the Left could cross the majority mark. All the three scenarios lie within a very small range and can come about with a mere 50 seats changing hands. But the political consequences of the three scenarios are radically different. It is still an open race.

I posted an essay from The Hindu which mimic my views that the NDA does not have it in the bag.  It is like the 1998 USA Congressional elections.  The national trend pointed toward a GOP gain but if one went disctict by disctrict a different result emerged.  Same here, a state b state analysis shows that if anything, NDA wil lose ground from 1999.

Yeah, a lot of truth in that...Let's just keep hoping...
Maybe we should also hope for an Indian drubbing in the cricket series and a health scare for Atalji...Now those two events together should sweep Congress to victory.

All my Indian friends here in NYC, regardless of political loyalties, think that BJP will sweep the polls.  Many think that BJP will get a majority on their own, something I think is just not possible.  BJP at best might get to 200 but no more.   I guess my friends have been taken in by the "India Shineing" campaign.  I am sure that INC + allies will not get a majority but do not rule out a minority INC+allies government supported by the Left Front after the 2004 elections.

The BJP will definitely not get an absolute majority. They'd have to win almost all the seats they contest for that.
But I'm here, I'm around Indians in Bangalore rather than NYC, and trust me, Congress won't win. Unless the cricketers lose all remaining matches of the Pakistan tour, that is.
That the regional thing isn't working as well for the BJP as last time is obvious from that Outlook survey too, by the way. It says the BJP+allies will gain 2% of the votes, Congress+allies 0,5%, but Congress+allies will gain more seats.

BBC: Rahul Gandhi to stand for Congress in Amethi

This is just to bore you...
Party's percentage-wise break up in big states last time.
Punjab INC 38,4 Akali Dal 28,6 BJP 9,2 two different Akali Dal splinter groups 4,6 and 3,4 BSP 3,8 CPI 3,7
Haryana INC 34,9 BJP 29,2 INLD 28,7
Rajasthan BJP 47,2 INC 45,1
Gujarat BJP 52,5 INC 45,4
Uttar Pradesh (includes Uttaranchal) BJP 27,6 SP 24,1 BSP 22,1 INC 14,7 independents 3,6
Bihar (includes Jharkand) RJD 28,3 BJP 23,0 JD (U) 20,8 INC 8,8 independents 4,2
Madhya Pradesh (inludes Chhattisgarh) BJP 46,6 INC 43,9 BSP 5,2
West Bengal CPM 35,6 Trinamul Congress 26,0 INC 13,3 BJP 11,1 RSP 4,3 CPI 3,5 FB 3,5
Assam INC 38,4 BJP 29,8 AGP 11,9 independents 9,4
Orissa INC 36,9 Biju JD 33,0 BJP 24,6
Maharashtra INC 29,7 NCP 21,6 BJP 21,2 Shiv Sena 16,9 independents 3,3
Karnataka INC 45,4 BJP 27,2 JD (U) 13,3 JD (S) 10,9
Andhra Pradesh INC 42,8 TDP 39,9 BJP 9,9
Kerala INC 39,4 CPM 27,9 CPI 7,6 BJP 6,6 Muslim League 5,3 independents 4,8
Tamil Nadu AIADMK 25,7 DMK 23,1 INC 11,1 PMK 8,2 TMC 7,2 BJP 7,1 MDMK 6,0

My main concern is that Prime Minister Vajpayee will retire at some point during the next term of Parliament and that someone like LK Advani will assume power. Vajpayee has been relatively successful at keeping the BJP coalition moderate in nature but I've heard that Advani is considered to be more extremist than Vajpayee and that his style of government could be much more confrontational. I dread to think about the prospect of a extremist-orientated Prime Minister with an outright parliamentary majority

I think the best outcome for India and the world would be a Congress (I) victory but, if the BJP has to win, I would much prefer it to be with a minority government

The idea of the BJP getting an overall majority is scary... :(

It's start today

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/04/19/india.poll/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/04/19/india.poll/index.html)

Lewis? give us some insight

I'm up in Rajasthan right now, where they won't vote til 10th May. I'll go to Delhi today and then to Kerala, where they also vote only on tenth May...And, travelling, I've stopped reading papers regularly...I do knwo that I recently saw two newsmagazines with polling-related covers that were quite contradictory: One proclaimed "Now NDA shining in assembly polls too?" and had a poll showing the BJD-BJP combine in Orissa with another landslide, the TDP just about limping home with a majority and Karnataka's Congress government going down, though I can't really see that happening. They'll lose seats in the Interior but they'll gain bigtime in Bangalore and on the coast.
The other predicted just 230-260 seats for the NDA, which would mean a hung parliament. (Congress and allies were predicted at 170-200).

Check our forum if you can Lewis

Different exit polls all showed the NDA ahead amongst Constituenciies voting on the first round, with totals ranging from 69 to 93 out of 140. In the last election they took 88 of these, so they might register slight losses. But there isn't really any chance of Atalji not staying PM unless maybe if the SP really sweeps UP or something...Oh, and Chandrababu Naidu is probably out in Andhra, while S.M.Krishna might survive on a whisper in Karnataka.

Okay, I bought THE WEEK's Election Special and now have a constituency-by-constituency guide to the Elections...
Just for kicks, I've got a constituency-by-constituency prediction ready! (I spent 52 hours on a train...)
Note that this prediction is probably not friendly enough to the NDA. Also note that it presumes swings that, while not exactly uniform, are certainly more uniform than they'll actually be. I'm just wondering how many I'll get right...

Jammu & Kashmir
INC 2 (Baramulla, Jammu)
PDP 2 (Anantnag, Ladakh) CONGRESS ALLY
BJP 1 (Udhampur)
J&K NC 1 (Srinagar) THIRD PARTY

1999 result
J&K NC 4 BJP ALLY
BJP 2

Himachal Pradesh
BJP 3
INC 1 (Shimla)

1999 result
BJP 3
HVC 1 BJP ALLY

Uttaranchal
BJP 3
INC 1 (Nainital)
BSP 1 (Hardwar) THIRD PARTY

1999 result
BJP 4
INC 1

Punjab
SAD 5 (Tarn Taran, Jalandhar, Bhalanda, Fardikot, Ferozepur) BJP ALLY
INC 4 (Phillaur, Ropar, Ludhiana, Patiala)
BJP 3 (Gurdaspur, Amritsar, Hoshiarpur)
SAD (M) 1 (Sangrur) THIRD PARTY

1999 result
INC 8
SAD 2
BJP 1
SAD (M) 1
CPI 1 THIRD PARTY

Chandigarh
BJP 1

1999 result
INC 1

Haryana
INC 6 (Kurukshetra, Karnal, Rohtak, Faridabad, Hissar, Sora)
BJP 3 (Ambala, Sonepat, Mahendragarh)
INLD 1 (Bhiwani) THIRD PARTY

1999 result
BJP 5
INLD 5 BJP ALLY

Delhi
INC 4
BJP 3 (New Delhi, South Delhi, Outer Delhi)

1999 result
BJP 7

To be continued...

Rajasthan
BJP 19
INC 6 (Bikaner, Jhunjhunu, Dausa, Nagaur, Salumber, Banswara)

1999 result
BJP 16
INC 9

Gujarat
BJP 21
INC 5 (Surendranagar, Patan, Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Kapadvanj)

1999 result
BJP 20
INC 6

Daman & Diu
INC 1 (as 1999)

Dadra & Nagar Haveli
INC 1 (1999: ind 1)

Uttar Pradesh
SP 42 (1999 constituencies plus Bijnor, Shahjahanpur, Sitapur, Hardoi, Sultanpur, Bansgaon, Gorakhpur, Salempur, Lalganj, Jaunpur, Ghazipur, Robertsganj, Chail, Hamirpur, Ghatampur, Saharanpur) THIRD PARTY
BJP 23 (1999 constituencies mines Bijnor, Bansgaon, Gorakhpur, Jaunpur, Ghazipur, Robertsganj, Hapur; plus Moradabad, Pilibhit, Jalaun, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar)
INC 6 (Rampur, Rae Bareli, Pratapgarh, Amethi, Jhansi, Kanpur)
BSP 5 (Amroha, Shahabad, Akbarpur, Ghosi, Banda)
RLD 3 (Hapur, Baghpat, Kairana) THIRD PARTY/CONGRESS ALLY
SJP 1 (Ballia) THIRD PARTY/CONGRESS ALLY

1999 result
SP 26
BJP 25
BSP 14
INC 9
LTC 2 BJP ALLY
RLD 2 THIRD PARTY
SJP 1 THIRD PARTY
ind 1 BJP ALLY

Madhya Pradesh
BJP 26
INC 3 (Guna, Chhindwara, Jhabua)

1999 result
BJP 21
INC 8

Chhattisgarh
BJP 9
INC 2 (Surguja, Mahasamund)

1999 result
BJP 8
INC 3

Orissa
Biju JD 10 (unchanged) BJP ALLY
BJP 7
INC 4 (Berhampur, Koraput, Nowrangpur, Dhenkanal)

1999 result
Biju JD 10
BJP 9
INC 2

Bihar
RJD 17 (Bettiah, Motihari, Gopalganj, Siwan, Chapra, Vaishali, Samastipur, Barh, Madhepura, Kishanganj, Monghyr, Arrah, Buxar, Sasaram, Bikramganj, Jahanabad, Gaya) CONGRESS ALLY
JD (U) 10 (Bagoha, Maharajganj, Muzaffarpur, Sitamarhi, Jhanjhapur, Balia, Saharsa, Banka, Khagoria, Nalanda) BJP ALLY
BJP 6 (Shashar, Madhubani, Deurbhanga, Araria, Patna, Nawada)
LJP 3 (Hajipur, Rosera, Purnea) CONGRESS ALLY
INC 2 (Begusarai, Aurangabad)
NCP 1 (Katihar) CONGRESS ALLY
CPM 1 (Bhagalpur) THIRD PARTY

1999 result
JD (U) 18
BJP 12
RJD 6
INC 2
CPM 1
ind 1

Jharkhand
BJP 9
INC 4 (Rajmahal, Kodarma, Giridh, Lohardaga)
JMM 1 (Dumka) THIRD PARTY

1999 result
BJP 11
INC 2
RJD 1

West Bengal
CPM 24 (1999 result plus Krishnagar, Nabadwip, Contai)
TC 5 (minus Nabadwip, Contai, Calcutta NW) BJP ALLY
CPI 3 (unchanged)
RSP 3 (unchanged) COMMIE ALLY
INC 3 (unchanged)
FB 2 (unchanged) COMMIE ALLY
BJP 1 (minus Krishnagar)
ind 1 (Calcutta NW) CONGRESS ALLY

1999 result
CPM 21
TC 8
CPI 3
RSP 3
INC 3
BJP 2
FB 2

to be continued

Sikkim
SDF 1 (unchanged, BJP ALLY)

Assam
INC 5 (Silchar, Barpeta, Kaliabor, Jorhat, Dibrugarh)
BJP 4 (Karimganj, Dhubri, Gauhati, Nowgong)
AGP 3 (Mangaldori, Tezpur, Lakhimpur) THIRD PARTY
CPI-ML 1 (Autonomous District) THIRD PARTY
ind 1 (Kokrajhar) BJP ALLY

1999 result
INC 10
BJP 2
CPI-ML 1
ind 1 REAL INDEPENDENT

Arunachal Pradesh
INC 1 (East)
AC 1 (West) CONGRESS ALLY

1999 result
INC 2

Nagaland
INC 1 (unchanged)

Manipur
BJP 1 (Inner)
NCP 1 (Outer)

1999 result
MSCP 1 BJP ALLY
NCP 1 THIRD PARTY

Mizoram
MNF 1 (BJP ALLY) 1999: ind 1 (BJP ALLY)

Tripura
CPM 2 (unchanged)

Meghalaya
INC 1 (Shillong)
TC 1 (Tura)

1999 result
INC 1
NCP 1

Maharashtra
INC 17 (1999 plus Kolaba, Mumbai S, Mumbai NE, Dhule, Buldhana, Ramtek, Aurangabad, Kopergaon)
NCP 11 (1999 plus Nashik, Bheed, Osmanabad, Ahmednagar)
BJP 9 (1999 minus Mumbai S, Mumbai NE, Dhule, Bheed, Ahmednagar; plus Akola)
SHS 9 (1999 minus Buldhana, Ramtek, Aurangabad, Kopergaon, Nashik, Osmanabad)
JD (S) 1 (Malegaon) THIRD PARTY
ind 1 (Pandharpur) CONGRESS ALLY

1999 results
SHS 15
BJP 13
INC 9
NCP 7
PWPI 1 THIRD PARTY
BBM 1 THIRD PARTY
JD (S) 1
ind 1 TRUE INDEPENDENT

Goa
BJP 1 (North)
INC 1 (South)

1999 result
BJP 2

Karnataka
INC 13  (Raichur, Bellary, Tumkur, Chikballapur, Kolar, Bangalore N, Bangalore S, Chamarajnagar, Mangalore, Udupi, Hassan, Kanara, Bagalkot)
BJP 12 (Bidar, Gulbarga, Koppal, Davangere, Mysore, Chikmagalur, Shimoga, Dharwad S, Dharwad N, Belgaum, Chikkodi, Bijapur)
JD (S) 2 (Kanakapura, Mandya)
JD (U) 1 (Chitradurga)

1999 result
INC 18
BJP 7
JD (U) 3

to be continued

Kerala
INC 11 (1999 plus Cannanore, Ottapalam, Kottayam, Idukki, Chirayinkil; minus Ernakulam, Trivandrum)
CPM 4 (1999 minus see above, except Idukki)
MUL 2 (Manjeri, Ponnani) CONGRESS ALLY
BJP 1 (Trivandrum)
IFDP 1 (Muvattupuzha) BJP ALLY
ind 1 (Ernakulam) COMMIE ALLY

1999 result
INC 8
CPM 8
MUL 2
KC (J) 1 COMMIE ALLY
KC (M) 1 INC ALLY

Lakshadweep
INC 1 (unchanged)

Andaman & Nicobar Islands
BJP 1 (unchanged)

Pondicherry
PMK 1 (CONGRESS ALLY)
1999: Congress 1

Tamil Nadu
DMK 15 (Madras N, Madras C, Madras S, Sribamapudar, Tirupattur, Tinelivanam, Cuddalore, Krishnagiri, Karur, Perambaluvar, Nagapattinam, Thanjavur, Pudukkottai, Ramanathapuram, Tiruchendur) CONGRESS ALLY
AIADMK 11 (Arakkonam, Vellore, Rasipuram, Salem, Tiruchengode, Gobichettipalayam, Palani, Dindigul, Periyakulam, Tirucchirapalli, Tirunelveli) BJP ALLY
BJP 3 (Dharmapuri, Nilgiris, Nagercoil)
MDMK 3 (Vandavasi, Pollachi, Sivakasi) CONGRESS ALLY
INC 2 (Mayiladuturai, Sivaganga)
PMK 2 (Chengalpattu, Chidambaram)
PT 1 (Tenkasi) CONGRESS ALLY
CPM 1 (Madurai)
CPI 1 (Coimbatore)

1999 result
DMK 11 BJP ALLY
AIADMK 10 CONGRESS ALLY
PMK 5 BJP ALLY
MDMK 5 BJP ALLY
BJP 4
INC 2
CPM 1
MGRADMK 1 THIRD PARTY

Andhra Pradesh
INC 17 (1999 plus Parvathipuram, Eluru, Guntur, Ongole, Nellore, Tirupathi, Chitoor, Anantapur, Kurnool, Mahabubnagar, Nizamabad, Peddapatti)
TDP 15 BJP ALLY
TRS 4 (Nagarkurnool, Medak, Karimnagar, Warangal) CONGRESS ALLY
BJP 3 (Rajahmundry, Narasapur, Sikanderabad)
CPM 1 (Bhadrachalam)
CPI 1 (Nalgonda)
AIMIM 1 (Hyderabad) THIRD PARTY

1999
TDP 29
BJP 7
INC 5
AIMIM 1

NATIONAL TOTAL
NDA 244
of which BJP 173, TDP 15, JD (U) 11, AIADMK 11, BJD 10, SHS 9, TC 6, SAD 5, SDF 1, MNF 1, IFDP 1, ind 1

CONGRESS AND ALLIES 191
of which INC 125, RJD 17, DMK 15, NCP 13, TRS 4, LJP 3, PMK 3, MDMK 3, PDP 2, MUL 2, PT 1, AC 1, ind 2

OTHERS 108
of which SP 42, CPM 33, BSP 6, CPI 5, JD (S) 3, RLD 3, AGP 3, RSP 3, FB 2, JK NC 1, SAD (M) 1, INLD 1, SJP 1, JMM 1, CPI-ML 1, AIMIM 1, ind 1

Excellent! :)

Good work Lewis
Now we want a map :)

After the second round of polling, exit polls are proclaiming the following...
The Chandrababu Naidu government is toast; Congress/TRS sweep the state and according to some firms will get as many seats as TDP/BJP got last time.
It's down to the wire in Karnataka, with the JD (S) likely picking up a number of seats in the Lok Sabha.
Patnaik can sleep soundly in Orissa.
BJP/SHS and INC/NCP will have roughly equal numbers of seats in Maharashtra.
My UP predictions won't come to pass, the election is going much better than I expected for both Congress and the Bahusan Samaj.
Bihar will be a RLD/INC victory, but maybe not by the kind of margin I envisage.
The NDA will either just about make it to a second term or there'll be a hung Lok Sabha with the NDA the strongest camp. The latter is looking likelier by the day.
The most NDA-unfriendly of the polling firm results I see quoted is very close to my prediction! NDTV say NDA 235-255, Congress & Allies 190-210, others 100-120.

nice

No NDA majority? :)

They won't miss it by much, they'll just have to rope in a few more partners...but still, it's nice.

It doesn't matter

What doesn't matter? ???

lol

It doesn't matter in that both are acceptable choices.

I like BJP.  Vagpie in particular.

Just quoting Reuter's...
"India's mammoth election campaign drew to a close on Saturday with both main parties trading insults as exit and opinion polls showed a close race to the finish line."
and...
"The NDA's campaign motto 'India Shining' appears to have backfired among the rural impoverished masses, many of whom feel excluded from an economic recovery that has mainly benefited the urban middle class."

I thought that "India Shining" might backfire... "you've never had it so good" campaigning usually backfires...
D'ya reckon that an urban-rural split might be large?

Gee...I dunno. In some parts, yeah. Karnataka's JD (S) gains won't be anywhere urban, for example. Elsewhere, it's always been there: Hyderabad votes Islamist, for example. Elsewhere again, maybe not: Madras shouldn't vote so different from the rest of Tamil Nadu. Never has in the past, anyways. Delhi is it's own state, so you can't really judge. Calcutta already is the most NDA-friendly part, okay the only NDA-friendly part, of West Bengal.

Interesting. Thanks

Counting has begun...

Results so far

Congress and Allies: 89 seats
NDA: 68 seats
Others: 29 seats

186 declared out of a total of 543 seats

Tallys of who leads where show a likely Congress win!

In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK and BJP may be left without a single seat. In Delhi, Congress is set to take 6 out of 7. Rajasthan stuck to the BJP. More soon...

BBC is reporting that Vajpayee is to resign!

Results so far [210/543]:

Congress and Allies: 105
NDA: 74
Others: 31

M hm. Fernandes said that much in a press conference.

Left Front headed for best result ever from Kerala.

The Election commission has fewer announced results than you do...
INC 54
BJP 44
INC allies 22
BJP allies 11
Left 8
others 4

The BJP appear to be winning in Karnataka.
Out of 55 announced Assembly constituencies, they took 28, Congress 17, JD (S) 8, JD (U) 1, an Independent 1.
Andhra Pradesh assembly is already fully counted out...
INC 186
TDP 45
TRS 26
CPM 9
CPI 6
AIMIM 5
BJP a paltry 2
JP 2, BSP 1, SP 1, independents 11
In tiny Sikkim, the SDF has won all 26 (of 32) segments announced.
There are only four results from Orissa yet, so the BJD 2, BJP 1, INC 1 tally doesn't mean a thing.

Results so far [according to BBC]:

Arunachal Pradesh: BJP 1, LJNSP 1
Bihar: BJP 1
Chhattisgarh: BJP 2
Madhya Pradesh: BJP 6, INC 1
Uttar Pradesh: SP 1, INC 1
Haryana: INC 1
H Pr'desh: INC 1
Punjab: SAD 2
Rajasthan: BJP 14, INC 3
Goa: BJP 1, INC 1
Gujarat: INC 12, BJP 11
Maharashtra: INC 8, NCP 7, SHS 6, BJP 8
Andhra Pradesh: INC 29, TDP 5, TRS 5, CPI 1, CPM 1
Karnataka: BJP 4
Kerala: CPM 3, JD(S) 1, Ind 1
Tamil Nadu: DMK 7, INC 7, CPI 2, CPM 2, PMK 1

I heard the Ghandis are coming back into power there.

Results so far:

INC and Allies: 212
NDA: 179
Others: 133

524/543

What party is Ghandi in?

Congress (INC)

State-by-state...
Jammu & Kashmir
INC 2, NC 2, PDP 1, i 1

Himachal
INC 3, BJP 1

Uttaranchal
BJP 3, INC 1, SP 1

Panjab
SAD 8, BJP 3, INC 2

Chandigarh INC

Haryana
INC 9, BJP 1

Delhi
INC 6, BJP 1

Rajasthan
BJP 21, INC 4

Gujarat
BJP 14, INC 12

Daman & Diu INC

Dadra & Nagar Haveli BNP

Uttar Pradesh
SP 35, BSP 18, BJP 10, INC 9, RLD 3, JD (U) 1, SJP 1, NLP 1, i 1, uncompleted 1 (BSP ahead)

Madhya Pradesh
BJP 25, INC 4

Chhattisgarh
BJP 10, INC 1

Orissa
Biju JD 8, BJP 5, INC 2, JMM 1, uncompleted 5 (of which 3 Biju JD, 2 BJP leads)

Jharkand
INC 5, JMM 4, RJD 2, BJP 1, CPI 1, uncompleted 1 (INC lead)

Bihar
RJD 16, JD (U) 5, BJP 5, LJS 4, INC 3, JD (S) 1, uncompleted 1 (JDU leading), not even begun 3 (there was so much poll violence that the EC is still mulling on whether or not to hold a complete revote and destroy the original result uncounted)

West Bengal
CPM 25, INC 5, CPI 3, FB 3, RSP 3, TC 1, uncompleted 2 (one CPM, one INC lead)

Sikkim SDF

Assam
INC 9, AGP 2, BJP 2, i 1

Meghalaya one INC, one TC
Arunachal BJP tw
Nagaland NPF (leading)
Manipur one INC, one uncounted (same reasons as in Bihar)
Mizoram MNF
Tripura one CPM, one uncompleted (CPM ahead)

Maharashtra
BJP 13, INC 13, Shiv Sena 12, NCP 9, RPI 1

Goa BJP 1, INC 1

Karnataka
BJP 18, INC 8, JD (S) 2

Kerala
18 to the different left front partners (sorry-didnt take down the party breakup), 1 IUML, 1 IFDP

Lakshadweep JD (U)
Andaman & Nicobar Islands INC
Pondicherry PMK

Tamil Nadu
DMK 16, INC 10, PMK 5, MDMK 4, CPM 2, CPI 2

Andhra
INC 29, TRS 5, TDP 5, CPM 1, CPI 1, AIMIM 1

The Karnataka assembly is hung
BJP 79
INC 64 (and leading in the last missing one)
JD (S) 58
JD (U) 5
CPM, KCVP, KNP, RPI one each
Independents 13

Orissa´s Biju JD-BJP government has a marginally reduced majority...
Biju JD 60 plus one counting
BJP 31 pluis one counting
INC 38
JMM 4
OGP 2
CPM 1
CPI 1
independents 8

Whoo hoo! :D
---
Beeb has these figures for Kerala: CPM 12, CPI 3, JD (S) 1, Ind 1

INC 143 plus 71 allies
BJP 135 + 46 allies
others 133
528/543

Obviously Congress will need some more allies. Even with the Communists theyre falling just short.

I won`t have time to complete this now, but here`s some data on how well my prediction was:
Jammu & Kashmir 3 out of 6
Himachal Pradesh 2 out of 4
Uttaranchal 4 out of 5
Panjab 8 out of 13
Chandigarh 0 out of 1
Haryana 7 out of 10
Delhi 5 out of 7
Rajasthan 19 out of 25
Gujarat 15 out of 26
Daman & Diu 1 out of 1
Dadra & Nagar Haveli 0 out of 1
Madhya Pradesh 28 out of 29!!!
Chattisgarh 10 out of 11
Orissa ca.18 out of 21
Goa 2 out of 2
I`ll do the rest some other day...

Btw Lewis. What you did in India?

Sad to see Congress win over BJP.  Bunch of socialists.

I wonder what impact this will have on U.S.-Indian cooperation on the war on Islamism? The BJP strongly stood with the U.S. (well, for Indian politics), whereas Congress is historically anti-U.S. and the Left Front-Communists...well, they're the Left Front-Communists. What more need you say? :)

I suspect relations will become chillier like with Spain...

India may also decisively cool its relations toward Israel, which had reached an all time height under the Vajpayee govt, after Israel was not even recognized as a country by India until well after the end of the Cold War. Congress historically bends over backwards to please radical Moslem terrorists.

AND???? India is still a VERY poor country. The BJP ignored the poor and the poor kicked them out of office.

Anyways... it's better to be a Socialist than a Sectarian Bigot...

yeah!!!!!!

Spain, France, India,... and maybe Belgium, Italy, Norway, holland, austria, australia and...USA! Left comes back!

Risk of problem: UK (but tony blair is not a socialist or a left leader, it's a conservative spy in the labour), germany (Schroeder is not social democrat, it's a european liberal).

Possibly...but expect the changes to be much slighter. India isn't in Iraq now, after all. And the faultlines on the attitude towards the US run through the Congress and the NDA rather then between them (the Communists are another matter, though they too have become much better at attracting American investors).
Oh, Huck: I taught English to High School kids as a volunteer.

How will this affect things with Pakistan and Kashmir?

From the article:

On foreign policy, Singhvi said that while "it is important to maintain continuity," the party favored a return to "the doctrine of nonalignment" that defined Indian foreign policy during the Cold War. "The doctrine is all the more important in a . . . world where one country is a supercop," he said. "Will we advocate becoming a part of the U.S. bloc? Obviously not. We are open to trade but will not fall at somebody's feet."

What is WITH these countries, falling over themselves to be the next France? They are so keen on keeping the US shackled to arbitrary international "law" that they don't see the snares of terror laced about their own necks.

But the BJP brought a great deal of their plight on themselves. Vajpayee was a fool for agreeing to early elections, a parliamentary scheme that virtually always leads to catastrophe (only Thatcher had the skill to pull them off). And his Hindu chauvinism and Christian burning were offensive. But he was at least a covert friend of the US and Isreal and kept Pakistan from going nuts with its nuclear bombs these few years.

But the Congress Party won by doing what all left-wing governments do best: pimp poverty

"Congress and its allies, meanwhile, emphasized the continuing poverty in the countryside as well as the dislocations wrought by globalization and economic reform; one campaign ad featured youths staring disconsolately at a locked factory gate"

At least the US won't need to worry about middle-class job outsourcing anymore, now that the Congress will ensure that EVERY destitute Indian family is employed in only government-sanctioned mudpits.

The most worrying trend seen in this election, however, is the murderously stupid appeasement of the Religion of Peace, first seen in Spain:

"At a news conference Thursday night, Sonia Gandhi emphasized her party's secular credentials -- an implicit contrast with the BJP, whose leaders have often been accused of sowing enmity between Hindus and India's large Muslim minority"

Voting for the 'right government' will not stop fanatics! Those creatures intend to kill us all--Christian, Buddhist, atheist, Hindu, but especially Jew. Vajpayee had the sense to play "nice doggie" with Pakistan and India's internal traitors while he searched for a shillelagh to club their brains out. These Congress idiots believe that the dog will stop snarling once they put the stick down!

They'll never stop being poor till they get rid of socialism and embrace Capitalism.

The BJP had a very clear understanding of what Islam is.  Hindus are good that way.

This is a ing disaster.  The socialists have had India in poverty for 50 years, and the BJP finall ypulls them out of the rut, brings them closer to the US, and this is the reward they get?  India deserves to be poor, if they keep electing fools who ride on the names of their parents.

Oops, don't we do that? (Kennedy, Taft, Bush, Clinton, Gore...)

I think that Australia is just about the only western country that doesn't have the offpring of a former PM, President, etc in parliament/congress/etc. :)

Although IIRC Kim Beazley's dad was a cabinet minister?

India's economic boom only affected urban areas, rural households were still living on the breadline. The BJP made a HUGE mistake by campaigning on its economic record, because many rural communities simply did not recognise the images displayed in the campaign ads. Thus they felt alienated, and regarded the BJP as out of touch.

At any rate, the BJP's record of extreme sectarianism and stoking up religious intolerance meant they were plainly unfit to govern. I'm glad to see India return to secularism, even if that means a quasi-socialist government.

a) The economic liberalization reforms in India were started by the last Congress government (VPN Rao, 91 to 96) and were opposed by the BJP until it came to power. Shows just how absurd some of those comments above are.
b) I looked at detailed results and in many regions, the BJP did worse in the cities.

We can hope - if what Storebought quoted was true, then we're in for another episode of cold peace. What? There are Congress members who aren't pining for the good old days of the Soviet Union? Amazing... :o And as for the NDA...well, that's why I made my aside above...supporting 'Christian' America while burning Christians in India is quite an interesting position to maintain for the BJP. But as Opebo said, some BJP members probably saw it as a common front against Islam (their POV: I specify Islamism in my posts to clarify my position).
I wonder how the Communists pulled that off? "We promise not to nationalize everything without compensation and hang you from a tree this time!" ;D

That part of the BJP you refer to were just hoping for the US to drop support of Pakistan.

India is no ally of the US, never has been. It's never been an ally of the Soviets either. (Funnily, I've encountered that opinions quite a few times coming from the US, though never from anywhere else.)
I remember reading a text by -was it Nehru?- from about 1947 on the question of Socialism and Capitalism, as economic concepts rather than as power blocs, and he basically said India needed every rope and would try both at the same time. Which is pretty much what they did.

Well, America tried to be nice to both sides after their independence, but India had a snit and so Pakistan reaped the benefits for decades...but given recent years I can see why the BJP thought they had a shot (and a good one at that after 9/11!).

First part, true enough - we almost made up enough in the past few years, but not quite. As for the U.S. viewpoint: even a highly pro-India source like P.M. Rosenthal (who, several years back, wrote a column for the New York Times) said that Nehru's first Foreign Minister (or the appropriate position) was highly anti-U.S., which influenced India's policies. Remember, the Congress Party opposed helping the Allies in WWII (something they should bear as a mark of shame, but don't), and I doubt that was forgotten on either side. Nehru's "nonalignment" movement was really the "anti-Western" movement...I mean, Communist China and Communist Cuba as members? Get real! And borderline-Communist and pro-Soviet Indonesia (under Sukarno, not Suharto) was also a member.

In any event, the "nonaligned" movement was rather anti-U.S. and anti-Western, even after China stabbed Nehru in the back in 1959. This lasted until Indira arrived, and things got more hostile after the 1967 India-Pakistani War, when India decided to sign a de facto alliance with the Soviet Union (to counterbalance China's support of Pakistan, in part, but also due to ideological affinity) and became even more hostile toward the U.S. Then after the bloodbath of the 1971 Civil War-War of Independence-3rd India-Pakistan War, things remained very cool well into the 1990's. Now, although Nixon did some dumb things in 1971 (yeah, that aircraft carrier he sent into the Bay of Bengal really impressed the Indians ::) ), the viewpoint goes beyond that. How often, Lewis, has India ever backed the U.S., especially during the Cold War? Who did they side with in their voting patterns? Somehow I doubt it was with the U.S.

And while Nehru didn't go communist (I think you need capital to nationalize to do that) he certainly created the huge, sprawling, parasitic bureaucracy that is such a drain on India - and this is coming from someone who is not a laissez-faire capitalist! He didn't do much to encourage capitalism...no one did, until the 1990's, but you covered that in other posts. ;)

Let's just say events in the late 40's just played out that way - I don't think anybody planned it. Still, it means the US has been propping up a military dictatorship against the "world's largest dictatorship" for most of the last 55 years...and one that's also been taking help - at the same time - from Communist China. Nothing is as simple as it seems...

That may well be true. I don't know, but it sounds entirely credible.
They were in favour at first, but by 1942 they had stopped caring about Hitler and were agitating for immediate independence, causing the Brits a lot of trouble that they really could have done without. Some nutcases led by one important pre-war leader, Subhas Chandra Bose, actually allied with and fought for Japan. Bose (who died mysteriously in the final stages of the war) is still an Indian national hero. So are the veterans of his "Indian National Army", must of them POWs taken in Malaya who signed up mostly for the better food. That the British gave them a series of high-profile High Treason trials in 45 & 46 may have helped in building that aura, but I think everybody outside India can agree there's nothing to be proud about for India in this chapter.

Then again, Indonesia was a democracy under Sukarno...and Indonesians had every reason to be sore at anyone allied to the Netherlands...but yeah, of course it was Anti-Western. It was about organizing the Third World into a power bloc of its own. That is anti-Western.

Leaving out a bit here...

At least he didn't make the Russian mistake of of forcing the peasants into vast collectives.
Indian bureaucracy grew under Nehru and his successors, of course, but there's nothing new about it. The British stamp on Indian bureaucracy is still very very obvious - you sometimes get the feelign that, in rural districts at least, officials still believe they're in a poor, hostile, occupied country on a different continent - but even the Brits just built on a pre-existing system. Not that that really excuses anyone, as traditions can be broken.

BREAKING NEWS
Sonia Gandhi apparently not to take over as PM
Manmohan Singh tipped off as most likely replacement

JD (S) and INC are trying to cobble up a coalition government, with the CM slot going to JD (S)'s K Siddaramaiah and not to the party's leader, former PM H D Deve Gowda.

Pakistan varied between somewhat-democratic parliamentary governments and military regimes its entire existence...so it was only a dictatorship some of the time... :) And I believe you meant "the world's largest democracy", right? ;) In any event South Asia has always floated in a world of its own...


Thus, it probably happened...the ardent pro-India sympathies of Rosenthal lead me to favor it as happening.


I quite agree...sad, really, that India considers fighting on the side of Imperial Japan and against the Allies to be a good thing... :(


Actually, it really wasn't a democracy - as soon as he could Sukarno turned it into a "Presidential Regime" where he ran everything. I took a class on the region in graduate school, so I do know what I'm talking about here. ;) And Sukarno's forces were ALSO pro-Japanese during WWII, so we weren't very inclined to support them. And the nonaligned movement was anti-Western specifically, as they went out of their way NOT to oppose the Communist bloc...hardly 'nonaligned'! Knee-jerk anti-Americanism and anti-Westernism, pretty much what I've come to expect out of the Third World Left...


There wouldn't be any Indian peasants left if he'd done that...


Like congealed syrup...one layer atop another, endlessly adding to itself...

Forgive my ignorance, but would this a coalition without the Marxists? If so, that sounds pretty good.

Great news!  I like Singh.

Janata Dal are sometimes referred to as Socialists, I don't know exactly on what basis, the pedigree is a bit murky...I don't know if they can be call Marxists, but they are quite critical of economic reforms leaving the peasantry on the shelf. Their party sign is a woman gathering corn. So, I guess not so good from your perspective.

Reading about Singh in the Economist he seems like the kind of guy who should be able to sort things out in India… feeling more optimistic now, I was worried about a Congress Party Government reliant on the Communists and forced to abandon Economic liberalisation. It would seem now that the moderate leadership of the BJP will either be forced to cave in to the radicals on the party’s right or simply be replaced… the BJP could be entering an extremist phase I fear and on the basis of these results the Congress Party lead government may not have a strong enough presence in parliament to face a militant, extremist BJP down.  

As I said Singh looks like he has the makings of a good PM, if he can just get the kind of legislation passed that he will need to, the oil companies need privatising as does the airline and the banks and most importantly he needs to do away with the ridicules waste of money that are the massive subsidies paid by the government so that funds can quickly be found to help eliminate the deficit and provide the basis for improving the infrastructure of the country as a whole.

The most important thing is that if the BJP slides into extremism as well it may and the left prevents Singh from acting radically then India could be faced with a choice between Neo-Communism on the one hand and Neo-fascism on the other and this is why Singh must succeed for the sake of India and the region.      

No PM has ever survived a full term in India who was not a Brahmin. Manmohan is a Sikh...and he's considered a nice old man without enemies, trying to hold a big coalition together...I doubt he'll stay in office more than two years. Happy to be proved wrong!