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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections => Topic started by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 02, 2009, 05:55:50 pm



Title: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 02, 2009, 05:55:50 pm
Rather than filling up the forum with "DEMOCRATS TAKE KENTUCKY STATE SENATE SEAT!!!!!111" threads that last about two pages, how about we all congregate the various and sundry "other" elections here?

2012 special elections (see also for results)

Upcoming elections (http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/State_legislative_special_elections,_2012)


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Meeker on September 02, 2009, 06:50:17 pm
But it's far more fun to mock CARL with multiple threads...


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on September 02, 2009, 07:17:36 pm
Quote from: Meeker link=tоpic=101786.msg2140241#msg2140241 date=1251935417
But it's far more fun to mock CARL with multiple threads...


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 09, 2009, 05:37:30 pm
There'll be another special in California, as Assemblyman Michael Duvall of the OC resigned following the surfacing of some... colorful remarks of his:

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/09/gop_lawmakers_graphic_sex-bragging_caught_on_tape.php


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: bgwah on September 09, 2009, 06:01:52 pm
Republicans may very well grab a state house seat here in Washington... A Democrat in a very Republican district (only Democrat outside of inner Spokane in all of Eastern Washington) died so there will be a special election in November for his seat. His daughter was appointed to the seat in the mean time. She might be able to survive... We'll see.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: AndrewTX on September 09, 2009, 06:29:37 pm
No special election here, but there is a good chance that the Republicans will pick up a majority on both the Common Council and Bored of Education here in Norwalk. Pretty big around here since we are a normally democrat city.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on September 09, 2009, 06:31:08 pm
There'll be another special in California, as Assemblyman Michael Duvall of the OC resigned following the surfacing of some... colorful remarks of his:

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/09/gop_lawmakers_graphic_sex-bragging_caught_on_tape.php

LOLOLOLOL


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Meeker on September 09, 2009, 06:33:17 pm
No special election here, but there is a good chance that the Republicans will pick up a majority on both the Common Council and Bored of Education here in Norwalk. Pretty big around here since we are a normally democrat city.

Do you guys have partisan municipal offices or is just everyone knows which party everyone is?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 11, 2009, 07:15:38 am
The Delaware special election for the 37th House district is tomorrow. The candidates are Democrat Rob Robinson, a public defender, and Republican Ruth Briggs King, a realtor. The district was won by McCain 50.4 - 48.8 last year. I haven't been hearing anything about this election, so I'm curious to see how it turns out.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 11, 2009, 07:08:27 pm
Just looked at the campaign finance reports... Robinson has raised $29k, King has raised $25k and given herself a $30k loan. King is banking on TV ads to win this, apparently, as she's spent $33k on WBOC.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 11, 2009, 07:40:32 pm
Also, Robinson got the all-important Cape Gazette endorsement:

http://capegazette.com/pages/editoral.html


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 12, 2009, 07:42:49 pm
And Ruth Briggs King wins. Final results:

Ruth Briggs King - 2,429 (53.6%)
Rob Robinson - 2,105 (46.4%)


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Holmes on September 12, 2009, 07:57:47 pm
Small turnout. :( Where is this seat?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 12, 2009, 08:04:02 pm
Small turnout. :( Where is this seat?

Sussex County, Delaware - Lewes, Georgetown and some surrounding unincorporated area.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Rowan on September 13, 2009, 09:30:49 am
Clearly this means that Obama should be impeached.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 17, 2009, 09:19:10 pm
Apparently there was a special election for the 38th Assembly district in New York during Tuesday's primary. Here are the results:

Michael Miller (D) - 2,730 (64.55%)
Donna Marie Caltabiano (R) - 1,499 (35.45%)

Here's hoping Mr. Miller's career doesn't end as ignominiously as his predecessor's:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/25/nyregion/25fraud.html


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on September 19, 2009, 08:33:50 am
Apparently there was a special election for the 38th Assembly district in New York during Tuesday's primary. Here are the results:

Michael Miller (D) - 2,730 (64.55%)
Donna Marie Caltabiano (R) - 1,499 (35.45%)

Here's hoping Mr. Miller's career doesn't end as ignominiously as his predecessor's:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/25/nyregion/25fraud.html

Thanks for the post.

Now, to put things in context.

In 2008 the Democrat nominee for this seat received more than three times the number of votes that the Republican nominee received, whereas in the special election this year, the Democrat nominee did not receive quite twice as many votes as the Republican nominee.

Well, in safe Democrat districts you can get away with such losses, but, in competitive districts, such loses can be disasterous.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Hash on September 19, 2009, 09:29:10 am
Indeed Carl, such a narrow victory calls for Obama's immediate resignation.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Meeker on September 19, 2009, 09:38:57 am
Apparently there was a special election for the 38th Assembly district in New York during Tuesday's primary. Here are the results:

Michael Miller (D) - 2,730 (64.55%)
Donna Marie Caltabiano (R) - 1,499 (35.45%)

Here's hoping Mr. Miller's career doesn't end as ignominiously as his predecessor's:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/25/nyregion/25fraud.html

Thanks for the post.

Now, to put things in context.

In 2008 the Democrat nominee for this seat received more than three times the number of votes that the Republican nominee received, whereas in the special election this year, the Democrat nominee did not receive quite twice as many votes as the Republican nominee.

Well, in safe Democrat districts you can get away with such losses, but, in competitive districts, such loses can be disasterous.

ROFL

Have you not learned anything from trying to analyze these special election results CARL? THEY'RE IRRELEVANT. ALL OF THEM.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 19, 2009, 09:45:18 am
There was no Republican candidate in NY-38 in 2008. Perhaps Seminerio had the Republican line as well or something. Anyway. Really low turnout - Obama polled over 21,000 in the district and even McCain managed over 8,000. So a low turnout by-election in a safe Democratic district in Queens (yes, I think this area (if I'm remembering where it is right) might have had a GOP State Senator and City Councillor within the past decade or so, but that would have been nowt more than a hangover from the Queens of thirty years ago) with a solid Democratic % and a fairly respectable (for the district) Republican one. Meh. Tells us very little about anything, really.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 19, 2009, 10:16:43 am
By Carl's logic, the 7-point victory in the Delaware election should be DOOOOOOOM for the Republicans, since Booth won 64-36 in 2008.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on September 19, 2009, 07:52:40 pm
John Kerry's percentage in 2002: 80.03%
John Kerry's percentage in 2008: 65.86%

Clearly this shows that 2008 was a much more Republican year than 2002, and that there is a solid Republican trend in Massachusetts.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Holmes on September 19, 2009, 07:59:53 pm
CARL <3


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Mr.Phips on September 19, 2009, 08:00:22 pm
I should also note that both Mike Bloomberg and Rudy Giuliani carried this New York district by large margins in their mayoral races.  


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on September 21, 2009, 12:40:52 am
There are a number of special elections in progress (candidates nominated) or completed but not yet certified.   Will be posting information about those certified soon.  However, when checking the certified results, I found a really interesting result fo New York's 77th Assembly district.  That is a third world district where the Democrat won 71 to 74 per cent of the vote (depending upon whether you include the second line on the ballot), but the Conservative party candidate trounced the Republican candidate (by a factor of more than five to one).


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 21, 2009, 06:53:29 am
I believe Mark Schauer's state senate seat in Michigan is going to be filled in the general election in November. No, I don't know why they've waited so long to fill it.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 02, 2009, 10:43:28 am
Looks like no one ever mentioned here, but apparently there was a special election for my old State Senate seat (District 24) back in Pennsylvania on Tuesday.  Sen. Rob Wonderling (R) left office to join the Greater Philly Chamber of Commerce.  The district is PVI neutral—Obama carried it by seven points.

Robert B. Mensch (R) 66.2%
Anne Henning Scheuring (D) 30.3%
Barbara Steever (L) 3.5%

Mensch was a State Rep, Scheuring was a councilor.  Mensch was favored; Democrats made an effort on behalf of Scheuring.

The PA Senate is once again 30R, 20D.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 02, 2009, 06:27:42 pm
Not much of an effort, it would seem.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 03, 2009, 12:08:43 pm
Not much of an effort, it would seem.

You can only put so much lipstick on a pig, as it were.


Title: NM Mayor: Marty Chavez (i) defeated
Post by: Sam Spade on October 07, 2009, 12:03:56 am
Another to file in the annals of NM weird elections.  (Al will love this one) 

Richard Berry defeats incumbent Marty Chavez for Albuquerque Mayor.  Helped, of course, by Richard Romero stealing some votes (though those votes may have gone for Berry otherwise, given Romero's campaign was basically anti-Chavez).

Chavez, much like Bloomberg, overturned the term-limits law to run for a fourth-term.  Berry is a Republican (and quite conservative at that).  Chavez is a Dem (pro-business is the left's major complaint).  Romero is a Dem too (for those who don't know NM politics), though Romero used to be a Republican.

With 93% in (40% needed to avoid runoff)
Richard Berry 43%
Marty Chavez (i) 35%
Richard Romero 21%

http://www.kob.com/article/stories/S1178683.shtml?cat=500


Title: Re: NM Mayor: Marty Chavez (i) defeated
Post by: Mr.Phips on October 07, 2009, 12:11:52 am
Another to file in the annals of NM weird elections.  (Al will love this one) 

Richard Berry defeats incumbent Marty Chavez for Albuquerque Mayor.  Helped, of course, by Richard Romero stealing some votes (though those votes may have gone for Berry otherwise, given Romero's campaign was basically anti-Chavez).

Chavez, much like Bloomberg, overturned the term-limits law to run for a fourth-term.  Berry is a Republican (and quite conservative at that).  Chavez is a Dem (pro-business is the left's major complaint).  Romero is a Dem too (for those who don't know NM politics), though Romero used to be a Republican.

With 93% in (40% needed to avoid runoff)
Richard Berry 43%
Marty Chavez (i) 35%
Richard Romero 21%

http://www.kob.com/article/stories/S1178683.shtml?cat=500

I was going to post this.  I am wondering what is going to happen in New York City with Bloomberg after his overturning term limits.  I am hearing that the Dems internal polls in that race see it surprisingly very close. 


Title: Re: NM Mayor: Marty Chavez (i) defeated
Post by: Tender Branson on October 07, 2009, 12:16:18 am
I am hearing that the Dems internal polls in that race see it surprisingly very close. 

Latest SUSA poll on the race (Oct. 3-5, 561 likely voters):

Bloomberg (R): 51%
Thompson (D): 43%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=18b470af-8896-4deb-a2c1-1f0c65f4a5ad


Title: Re: NM Mayor: Marty Chavez (i) defeated
Post by: Sam Spade on October 07, 2009, 12:19:10 am
Another to file in the annals of NM weird elections.  (Al will love this one) 

Richard Berry defeats incumbent Marty Chavez for Albuquerque Mayor.  Helped, of course, by Richard Romero stealing some votes (though those votes may have gone for Berry otherwise, given Romero's campaign was basically anti-Chavez).

Chavez, much like Bloomberg, overturned the term-limits law to run for a fourth-term.  Berry is a Republican (and quite conservative at that).  Chavez is a Dem (pro-business is the left's major complaint).  Romero is a Dem too (for those who don't know NM politics), though Romero used to be a Republican.

With 93% in (40% needed to avoid runoff)
Richard Berry 43%
Marty Chavez (i) 35%
Richard Romero 21%

http://www.kob.com/article/stories/S1178683.shtml?cat=500

I was going to post this.  I am wondering what is going to happen in New York City with Bloomberg after his overturning term limits.  I am hearing that the Dems internal polls in that race see it surprisingly very close. 

SUSA has Bloomberg up by 8 - a poll I was going to post in a few minutes.  And given the internals on the SUSA poll - I suspect it's closer than that.

btw, I'm not voting for Bloomberg or Thompson either.  Going third party this year - haven't looked over the candidates yet.

Bloomberg's a fascist and the term limits thingy still pisses me off.  I also have a personal reason why Bloomberg can f-off.  Thompson's a tool of the unions, the minorities and the Working Families party (a criminal organization) - I know all about his tenure as the head of the Board of Education back in the incompetent days too.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Lunar on October 07, 2009, 12:21:35 am
Bloomberg is trying to give Obama political capital in the healthcare fight in exchange for Obama not endorsing Thompson


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Sam Spade on October 07, 2009, 12:30:15 am
Bloomberg is trying to give Obama political capital in the healthcare fight in exchange for Obama not endorsing Thompson

If Bloomberg thinks that will help in any ways towards re-election, then he really is tone-deaf politically.  The minorities will return to the minority candidate in NYC elections no matter what the polls say or what Obama does (see 2005).

Of course, Marty Chavez was also tone-deaf politically.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Mr.Phips on October 07, 2009, 12:39:52 am
Bloomberg is trying to give Obama political capital in the healthcare fight in exchange for Obama not endorsing Thompson

If Bloomberg thinks that will help in any ways towards re-election, then he really is tone-deaf politically.  The minorities will return to the minority candidate in NYC elections no matter what the polls say or what Obama does (see 2005).

Of course, Marty Chavez was also tone-deaf politically.

I dont know.  Didnt Bloomberg get a significant number of black votes in 2005?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Lunar on October 07, 2009, 12:58:11 am
Bloomberg is trying to give Obama political capital in the healthcare fight in exchange for Obama not endorsing Thompson

If Bloomberg thinks that will help in any ways towards re-election, then he really is tone-deaf politically.  The minorities will return to the minority candidate in NYC elections no matter what the polls say or what Obama does (see 2005).

Of course, Marty Chavez was also tone-deaf politically.

Well, Obama's endorsement or non-endorsement will have other sorts of impacts than minority votes.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Lunar on October 07, 2009, 12:59:27 am
Bloomberg is also spending insane amounts of money: $15k an hour since summer.  65 million total last week, probably 75 million by now


Title: Re: NM Mayor: Marty Chavez (i) defeated
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 07, 2009, 06:02:34 am
Another to file in the annals of NM weird elections.  (Al will love this one) 

Richard Berry defeats incumbent Marty Chavez for Albuquerque Mayor.  Helped, of course, by Richard Romero stealing some votes (though those votes may have gone for Berry otherwise, given Romero's campaign was basically anti-Chavez).

Chavez, much like Bloomberg, overturned the term-limits law to run for a fourth-term.  Berry is a Republican (and quite conservative at that).  Chavez is a Dem (pro-business is the left's major complaint).  Romero is a Dem too (for those who don't know NM politics), though Romero used to be a Republican.

With 93% in (40% needed to avoid runoff)
Richard Berry 43%
Marty Chavez (i) 35%
Richard Romero 21%

http://www.kob.com/article/stories/S1178683.shtml?cat=500

Haha, yes. I just put a thread up on it before reading this one. I wonder what Romero's base looked like this election - might ask Nate.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 07, 2009, 06:04:42 am
Bloomberg is trying to give Obama political capital in the healthcare fight in exchange for Obama not endorsing Thompson

If Bloomberg thinks that will help in any ways towards re-election, then he really is tone-deaf politically.  The minorities will return to the minority candidate in NYC elections no matter what the polls say or what Obama does (see 2005).

Of course, Marty Chavez was also tone-deaf politically.

I dont know.  Didnt Bloomberg get a significant number of black votes in 2005?

He won't in an election in which the Democratic candidate is black. Aren't municipal voting patterns in New York wonderful?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: WMS on October 07, 2009, 12:24:58 pm
You know, I'll re-post what I said in the other thread here. ^_^

Of perhaps greater importance...the Republicans gained a majority on the Albuquerque City Council. They did this by unseating the left-leaning Democratic candidate on the Upper West Side/District 5, Michael Cadigan. I will admit that I am very happy over that, since I've thought Cadigan didn't represent his constituents well at all and have thought that since shortly after he was initially elected. I also thought his incumbency would give him yet another win, though. And yes, I got to vote in the District 5 race. ;) Not that I'm ecstatic about Lewis - too far right for me - but he IS an improvement on Cadigan.

The City Council, WMS' view:

District 1 - Ken Sanchez, centrist Democrat, close to Chavez and backed him
District 2 - Debbie O'Malley, leftist Democrat, backed Romero
District 3 - Isaac Benton, leftist Democrat, backed Romero
District 4 - Brad Winter, center-right Republican, backed Berry
District 5 - *NEW* Dan Lewis, rightist Republican, backed Berry, unseated (as said above) leftist Democrat Michael Cadigan
District 6 - Rey Garduno, leftist Democrat, backed Romero
District 7 - *NEW* Michael Cook, rightist? Republican, backed Berry? This race was odd because the incumbent, center-right Republican Sally Mayer (who was a staunch advocate for animals) who would likely have won, dropped out to move to Chicago to care for her elderly parents. The lefty opponent forgot to file his candidacy properly. So Cook strolls into this one.
District 8 - Trudy Jones, rightist Republican, backed Berry
District 9 - Don Harris, rightist? Republican, backed Berry

Now, it isn't this simple - most of the past several years the split has been between Pro-Chavez and Anti-Chavez Councillors, and THAT split varied by issue, because sometimes, but not always, the ideology counted. For example, both Mayer and Harris sometimes voted with Chavez more often than The Leftist Bloc (O'Malley, Benton, Garduno, and Cadigan) did. But that varied as well.

So I'm very curious how this new arrangement will work out, since both the dominant aspects of the City Council have changed - Chavez is no longer Mayor, and the Democrats no longer have a majority. The dynamics may be very, very, different than before...it's possible, but not certain, that the Republicans will get their own way there. Then again, Sanchez, White, and Harris have all been known to not vote in party lockstep. This could be entertaining. :)

I'll give you all the Major's Race From My Perspective:

Berry - Right
Chavez - Center
Romero - Left

But with plenty of additional local elements, mainly Chavez fatigue after all these years plus various local scandals, issues of interest, and so on and so forth. Although I don't have access to precinct totals and all that, apparently the media and others had general areas hammered out and from what they said there were some big shifts.

The Big Swingy Area, the Northeast Heights (not counting the Republican Far Northeast Heights) swung from Chavez to Berry. Chavez' Stronghold, the West Side, in a surprise to me swung toward Berry as well (I do not know who WON the area, however). And from what the paper is saying, Berry even did well in some places in Central Albuquerque that are usually reliably Democratic. Perhaps it was a broad-based feeling that it was time for a change? It's going to be a while before better data comes out on this.

Ideologically, it seems (from this story and that over the months) that Berry: 1. Took back the Republican votes Chavez had gained in past elections. 2. Won over the Independents. 3. Even dug into the Democratic voters.

Now, I suspect that Berry would've lost a runoff, although I'm not 100% on that because there are odd tactical voters like me that voted for Chavez but would've voted for Berry over Romero in a runoff (yes, I voted for Chavez, for all his flaws - I feel he's a mayor that actually DOES things for the city) so extrapolating meaning outside of Albuquerque is a very iffy measure. Still, I was surprised at how well-organized the Republicans were this time - the NM Reps are not exactly known for their competence in campaigning.

The lefties did not have a good night. :P Not only did their cherished candidate poll third (enjoy your 21%! Nyah!) but the Fall of Cadigan hurt them a lot on the City Council. I suspect they thought that Romero would poll first or second and win the runoff, thus leading to Leftist Rule. Instead, they opened the doors for Rightist Rule by splitting the Democratic vote. Whoops. :D

Annoyingly, Proposition 2 passed - up until now, Councilor pay raises had to be approved by the voters, and very rarely were. ;) Now, some damn commission will determine if their salaries will be raised, and of course they will be. A lot. Repeatedly. ::) There were other propositions, some I backed, some I didn't, but all passed. Oh well.

The transportation tax and the road bonds passed, but I voted for all of them (even though I now own a townhouse and am directly affected by them for once) so yay there.

Well, time to wait to eventually find out the precinct results and see if any good patterns developed...

Perhaps the loss of the house seat galvanised Albuquerque Republicans somewhat?

It could be. The Republicans DID make it a point to try and mobilize their voters for both the Mayoral race and the District 5 race; they had BOTH Heather Wilson AND Stevan Pearce make statements supporting Berry and Lewis, and even campaign a bit for them. The state party wasn't sleeping on this one.

A comment on a blog somewhere or other by the state Dems pointed out that, roughly, 'the Reps were united and the Dems were not', with moderate and leftist Dems splitting badly over this race. Another factor, to be sure.

There, that should help. :)


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on October 07, 2009, 01:00:57 pm
First, its nice to see you posting again.

Second, very insightful post.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Sam Spade on October 07, 2009, 01:22:54 pm
Bloomberg is trying to give Obama political capital in the healthcare fight in exchange for Obama not endorsing Thompson

If Bloomberg thinks that will help in any ways towards re-election, then he really is tone-deaf politically.  The minorities will return to the minority candidate in NYC elections no matter what the polls say or what Obama does (see 2005).

Of course, Marty Chavez was also tone-deaf politically.

I dont know.  Didnt Bloomberg get a significant number of black votes in 2005?

He won't in an election in which the Democratic candidate is black. Aren't municipal voting patterns in New York wonderful?

I'm sure he also didn't get *very* many in 2005 also (definitely a whole lot less than the polls were saying), but this applies to most minorities.  But the blacks will return home this election, I can guarantee it.

I'd have to review the precincts specifically, but truth be told, the Giuliani/Bloomberg coalition has been pretty much the same since 1993, with 1993 mirroring 2001 and 1997 mirroring 2005 for said candidate (with racial variation depending on Dem candidate).


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Sam Spade on October 07, 2009, 01:25:31 pm
Oh, and good to see you back, WMS.  I missed the thing on the City Council.

The impression I got from reading Joe Monahan was that Berry won the West Side, but who knows for the moment.

Interesting to see that the GOP in NM is possibly getting a tad more intelligent (though that's not saying much).  Folks who hold positions in Albuquerque city politics often get elected to higher office down there.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Sam Spade on October 07, 2009, 01:27:40 pm
Bloomberg is also spending insane amounts of money: $15k an hour since summer.  65 million total last week, probably 75 million by now

I should know - I get mailers from him almost every day.

I should note this - in 2005 (I did not live here, but know others), all of the mailers were focused on his accomplishments and simply ignored Ferrer.

A couple of weeks ago, his mailers started changing from being all positive to being about 50% attacking Bill Thompson and 50% positive.

Tells me something is going on.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: WMS on October 08, 2009, 12:10:27 pm
First, its nice to see you posting again.

Second, very insightful post.

Thanks, but there isn't much that I find interesting enough to post to on these boards these days so I'm still going to lurk from time to time instead. :)

Thank you. ^_^ Additional features were that the public financing system put in place a year or so ago may have hurt Chavez since he was the best fundrasier of the trio by far and couldn't wield it like a weapon. On the other hand, I heard a lot fewer political ads on television and radio so that was kind of pleasant. :P Plus on the West Side, Chavez' longtime base, you possibly had more newer people moving in who might not have been aware that Chavez was one of their longtime champions, and thus voted by party affiliation or pure ideology instead of Chavez' record.

Oh, and good to see you back, WMS.  I missed the thing on the City Council.

The impression I got from reading Joe Monahan was that Berry won the West Side, but who knows for the moment.

Interesting to see that the GOP in NM is possibly getting a tad more intelligent (though that's not saying much).  Folks who hold positions in Albuquerque city politics often get elected to higher office down there.

The City Council bit may actually be the more important part, especially since all the mayor-weakening propositions passed this time around and the Council will now have more power.

Bah, I have a bit of a vendetta against Monahan so I try not to read him. :P But people gossip to him so I suppose his information has some value. :) I know that Berry bit into Chavez' strength over there - I think I read the part you did talking about that - but it wasn't clear whether or not the area flipped. I'll have to wait...

That isn't saying much at all ;) especially given their meltdown last year. I mean, they lost state seats they never should've that time around. It didn't help that Pearce drug down the ticket. :P And good observation ^_^ in fact, you tend to see the same names pop up in every election...


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 12, 2009, 12:40:59 am
SHELBYVILLE, Tenn. — Voters go to the polls Tuesday in a special House election that could serve as a political bellwether for Tennessee.

Republicans last year gained majorities in both chambers of the Tennessee General Assembly for the first time in 140 years. But their advantage in the House was a single seat, and the chamber was cast into turmoil when one Republican sided with all 49 Democrats to be elected speaker.

The House District 62 election pits Republican Pat Marsh, the co-founder of Shelbyville-based trucking company Big G Express against Democrat Ty Cobb, a UPS driver and brother of the last person to hold the seat that represents all of Bedford County, most of Lincoln County and parts of Rutherford County.

Republicans hope a win would cement their majority in the chamber and give notice that more historically Democratic seats could be endangered when all 99 House members stand for election next year.

State Democrats, meanwhile, have made winning back the House their top objective — a task that would become all the more difficult if Cobb fails.

Republicans hold a comfortable 19-14 majority in the Senate, so who controls the House will have a major effect on redistricting of legislative and congressional seats following the 2010 census.

Given the high stakes of the special election, both parties have been pouring resources into the race and leading attacks on their opponent’s credentials.

http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9017564

Gore did relatively well there in 2000, getting 48% or so. Kerry 38% and Obama 30%.

The last guy to hold the seat was the brother of the Democrat who is now running and won the district with 55% last year.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 12, 2009, 02:20:19 am
Ty Cobb?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 12, 2009, 07:02:20 am
There was a Ty Cobb who ran for Congress in North Carolina last year.

I can't believe that the best Democratic candidate is apparently a UPS driver. Shows how much Tennessee has changed politically in the last decade.

Also, the county has a mayor? Huh?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Meeker on October 12, 2009, 10:07:09 am
I'm confused. There already is a Ty Cobb representing the 64th District: http://www.tycobbonline.com/


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 12, 2009, 02:05:14 pm
Maybe "Ty Cobb" is just a very common name in the US.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 13, 2009, 12:03:40 am
Maybe "Ty Cobb" is just a very common name in the US.

I've never met anyone who went by the name "Ty" or had the last name "Cobb".

Of course, the one Ty Cobb we all know is this one:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ty_Cobb


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 13, 2009, 12:18:29 am
I'm confused. There already is a Ty Cobb representing the 64th District: http://www.tycobbonline.com/

Yeah, but this is another "Ty Cobb":

http://www.tycobb62.com


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Meeker on October 13, 2009, 11:35:12 am
Ok, Tennessee, you're f**cked up.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 13, 2009, 08:12:43 pm
These appear to be the final results:

Pat Marsh (R): 4931
Ty Cobb II (D): 3663
Christopher T. Brown (I): 255


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Meeker on October 13, 2009, 08:17:46 pm
Well, it's official. I've given up on Tennessee.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 13, 2009, 08:28:21 pm
Also, there was a special election for a Dem-held State House seat in Oklahoma. Unsurprisingly, the Republican won.

http://www.ok.gov/~elections/sh55gen.html

32/35 precincts:

TODD RUSS                             REP     2,640   55.45%
LARRY W. PECK                         DEM     2,121   44.55%


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Mr.Phips on October 13, 2009, 09:00:02 pm
What the hell is happening to the Democratic party?  If Democrats do indeed lose the New Jersey Assembly, something is VERY, VERY wrong.  I havent seen a party get beat up this badly in an off year election since Watergate. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Sam Spade on October 13, 2009, 09:39:09 pm
Eh, I wouldn't read that much into some election for a house seat in the western suburbs of Oklahoma City.

The one in Tennessee is more important because it gives the GOP there a much more secure hold on the State House than before and GOP prospects to win the governorship in 2010 look pretty good right now (which would affect redistricting).

Let's see what happens in NJ and VA next month.  I have to say that Moderate's proposition that Jersey voters may CTA voting Republican in Assembly elections if they think Corzine will be re-elected is certainly not an unreasonable one.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Mr.Phips on October 13, 2009, 09:54:41 pm
Eh, I wouldn't read that much into some election for a house seat in the western suburbs of Oklahoma City.

The one in Tennessee is more important because it gives the GOP there a much more secure hold on the State House than before and GOP prospects to win the governorship in 2010 look pretty good right now (which would affect redistricting).

Let's see what happens in NJ and VA next month.  I have to say that Moderate's proposition that Jersey voters may CTA voting Republican in Assembly elections if they think Corzine will be re-elected is certainly not an unreasonable one.


I dont think most voters think that way.  Are voters going to vote Democratic in 2010 because they think there will likely be a Republican President in 2012?  I guess a more reasonable comparison would be Virginia voters electing a Democratic House of Delegates because they are certain that McDonnell will win. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 13, 2009, 10:02:14 pm
Eh, I wouldn't read that much into some election for a house seat in the western suburbs of Oklahoma City.

The one in Tennessee is more important because it gives the GOP there a much more secure hold on the State House than before and GOP prospects to win the governorship in 2010 look pretty good right now (which would affect redistricting).

Let's see what happens in NJ and VA next month.  I have to say that Moderate's proposition that Jersey voters may CTA voting Republican in Assembly elections if they think Corzine will be re-elected is certainly not an unreasonable one.


I dont think most voters think that way.  Are voters going to vote Democratic in 2010 because they think there will likely be a Republican President in 2012?  I guess a more reasonable comparison would be Virginia voters electing a Democratic House of Delegates because they are certain that McDonnell will win. 

Perhaps it's not the exact way voters are thinking, however, it's important to note that it's not Corzine voters who are going to be hedging.  Corzine voters are pulling the Dem lever downballot at the same rate Christie voters are pulling the GOP lever downballot.

The key in these Assembly races are Daggett voters.  The PPP poll internals show that they prefer a generic Republican Assembly candidate over a Democrat by a margin of two to one.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Verily on October 13, 2009, 10:05:06 pm
What the hell is happening to the Democratic party?  If Democrats do indeed lose the New Jersey Assembly, something is VERY, VERY wrong.  I havent seen a party get beat up this badly in an off year election since Watergate. 

Eh? Republicans held the NJ Assembly during this very decade. And the chances of the Democrats actually losing control are essentially nil due to way seats are elected: only half of the seats are up for election. The Republicans could win the PV by as much as 8-10% and still fail to take the Assembly.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 13, 2009, 10:36:50 pm
What the hell is happening to the Democratic party?  If Democrats do indeed lose the New Jersey Assembly, something is VERY, VERY wrong.  I havent seen a party get beat up this badly in an off year election since Watergate. 

Eh? Republicans held the NJ Assembly during this very decade. And the chances of the Democrats actually losing control are essentially nil due to way seats are elected: only half of the seats are up for election. The Republicans could win the PV by as much as 8-10% and still fail to take the Assembly.

Not since redistricting they haven't.

But yeah, the deck is HEAVILY stacked in the Democrats' favor.  Republicans winning the Assembly hinges on the GOP taking seats that Obama probably won with about 70% of the vote.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Mr.Phips on October 13, 2009, 10:52:08 pm
What the hell is happening to the Democratic party?  If Democrats do indeed lose the New Jersey Assembly, something is VERY, VERY wrong.  I havent seen a party get beat up this badly in an off year election since Watergate. 

Eh? Republicans held the NJ Assembly during this very decade. And the chances of the Democrats actually losing control are essentially nil due to way seats are elected: only half of the seats are up for election. The Republicans could win the PV by as much as 8-10% and still fail to take the Assembly.

Not since redistricting they haven't.

But yeah, the deck is HEAVILY stacked in the Democrats' favor.  Republicans winning the Assembly hinges on the GOP taking seats that Obama probably won with about 70% of the vote.

What kind of seats did Republicans have to hold in the 1990's to keep a majority?  Were the district lines just very GOP favorable then?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 13, 2009, 11:09:59 pm
What the hell is happening to the Democratic party?  If Democrats do indeed lose the New Jersey Assembly, something is VERY, VERY wrong.  I havent seen a party get beat up this badly in an off year election since Watergate. 

Eh? Republicans held the NJ Assembly during this very decade. And the chances of the Democrats actually losing control are essentially nil due to way seats are elected: only half of the seats are up for election. The Republicans could win the PV by as much as 8-10% and still fail to take the Assembly.

Not since redistricting they haven't.

But yeah, the deck is HEAVILY stacked in the Democrats' favor.  Republicans winning the Assembly hinges on the GOP taking seats that Obama probably won with about 70% of the vote.

What kind of seats did Republicans have to hold in the 1990's to keep a majority?  Were the district lines just very GOP favorable then?

District lines were much more favorable to the GOP, yes.  The 1990s lines are generally considered a GOP gerrymander; 2000s are a Dem gerrymander.  Even though both were technically drawn by independent commission.

Republicans scored 58 seats to Democrats' 22 in the 1991 anti-Florio superlandslide.  They slowly hemorrhaged the unholdable, intensely Democratic seats throughout the decade, but always had solid control.

Since redistricting, the main Dem pickups were in District 1 (Heavily GOP, but Republicans essentially handed Democrats these seats via a 2005 ballot-access signature snafu); District 3 (both longtime GOP incumbents retired during a good Dem year); District 4 (top GOP prospect this year, always "lean Dem" but made slightly more Dem through redistricting); District 22 (shifted from lean GOP to strong Dem via redistricting); District 34 (shifted from toss-up to safe Dem via redistricting); District 36 (shifted from toss-up to strong Dem via redistricting); and District 38 (shifted from lean GOP to strong Dem via redistricting).


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Mr.Phips on October 13, 2009, 11:14:46 pm
What the hell is happening to the Democratic party?  If Democrats do indeed lose the New Jersey Assembly, something is VERY, VERY wrong.  I havent seen a party get beat up this badly in an off year election since Watergate. 

Eh? Republicans held the NJ Assembly during this very decade. And the chances of the Democrats actually losing control are essentially nil due to way seats are elected: only half of the seats are up for election. The Republicans could win the PV by as much as 8-10% and still fail to take the Assembly.

Not since redistricting they haven't.

But yeah, the deck is HEAVILY stacked in the Democrats' favor.  Republicans winning the Assembly hinges on the GOP taking seats that Obama probably won with about 70% of the vote.

What kind of seats did Republicans have to hold in the 1990's to keep a majority?  Were the district lines just very GOP favorable then?

District lines were much more favorable to the GOP, yes.  The 1990s lines are generally considered a GOP gerrymander; 2000s are a Dem gerrymander.  Even though both were technically drawn by independent commission.

Republicans scored 58 seats to Democrats' 22 in the 1991 anti-Florio superlandslide.  They slowly hemorrhaged the unholdable, intensely Democratic seats throughout the decade, but always had solid control.

Since redistricting, the main Dem pickups were in District 1 (Heavily GOP, but Republicans essentially handed Democrats these seats via a 2005 ballot-access signature snafu); District 3 (both longtime GOP incumbents retired during a good Dem year); District 4 (top GOP prospect this year, always "lean Dem" but made slightly more Dem through redistricting); District 22 (shifted from lean GOP to strong Dem via redistricting); District 34 (shifted from toss-up to safe Dem via redistricting); District 36 (shifted from toss-up to strong Dem via redistricting); and District 38 (shifted from lean GOP to strong Dem via redistricting).

Was the 1970's map a Dem gerrymander?  I know Democrats held a two to one lead after the 1973 election, which slowly shrank until about they finally lost control again in 1985.  Democrats must have held seats in places like Hunterdon county to have that many seats. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Sam Spade on October 14, 2009, 01:50:42 pm
I really meant what Moderate is pointing out, that's all.  And obviously, these voters may never even show up for all we know.

At an executive level (at least), tied races on Election Day with unpopular incumbents tend to produce odd outcomes moreso than most other contests.  Of course, it's not a correlation, so whatever...  :)


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Kevinstat on October 17, 2009, 08:15:51 am
And the chances of the Democrats actually losing control are essentially nil due to way seats are elected: only half of the seats are up for election.

You're mistaken there.  From the New Jersey Legislature's Our Legislature (http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/legislativepub/our.asp) page:

Quote
Legislative elections are held in November of each odd-numbered year. Members of the Assembly serve two-year terms. Senators serve four-year terms, except for the first term of a new decade, which is only two years. This "2-4-4" cycle allows for elections from new districts as soon as possible after each reapportionment.

Two State Assemblymen/women (in each odd year) and one State Senator (in years ending in "1", "3" or "7") are elected from each Legislative district.  Comparing both the 2007 primary (http://www.njelections.org/2007_primary_election.html) and general (http://www.njelections.org/2007_general_election.html) election results for State Senate and General Assembly, normal "block voting" or "plurality at large" seems to be used for elections to the New Jersey General Assembly.  Interestingly though, two Assembly candidates can bracket themselves with each other.  Slogans are used in the primary to indicate ideology or who are the "regular" party candidates (presumably those endorsed by the local county committee).  I'm not sure if voters can vote for both candidates by checking one box of not, but they clearly don't have to as I see candidates bracketed with each other with different vote totals.  Perhaps a New Jersey forumite can explain how that works, and whether or not New Jersey has a "big box" or "one lever" voting option in the general election (Maine got rid of its big box in 1972).


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 18, 2009, 06:27:34 pm
There are a bunch of special elections occurring on November 3. So far I've found:

Alabama HD65 - D Mark Keahey was elected to the State Senate, candidates are D Elaine Beech and R Jerry Reed.

Georgia SD1 - Open R seat, two Rs running: Buddy Carter and Billy Hair.
Georgia SD35 - Open D seat, there are nine (!) Democrats running and no Republicans. The Georgia races will require a runoff if nobody gets 50%+1.
Georgia HD58 - Open D seat, four Ds and an I running.
Georgia HD75 - Open D seat; candidates are D Ron Dodson and R Shawn James.
Georgia HD129 - Open R seat, 4 Rs running.
Georgia HD141 - Open D seat; candidates are D Darrell Black, Rs Angela Gheesling-McCommon and Casey Tucker, and I "Rusty" Kidd. This is probably the only one that will be interesting.
Georgia HD159 - Open R seat, two Rs running: Ann Purcell and Jesse Tyler.

Michigan SD19 - Mark Schauer's Senate seat, don't know why it took them a year to fill it, but the candidates are D State Rep. Martin Griffin and R ex-State Rep. Mike Nofs.

Missouri SD4 - D Jeff Smith can't get to Washington, but he is going to jail. D Joe Keaveney is unopposed.
Missouri HD73 - Same as above but without a clever joke; D Steve Brown is out. Candidates are D Stacey Newman and R Daniel O'Sullivan.

New Hampshire HD Merrimack-11 - Open D seat. Candidates are D Jim MacKay and R Lynne Blankenbeker. Funnily enough, both unsuccessfully ran as Republicans in 2008 (it's normally a 5-member district). MacKay used to be in the legislature, in fact.

South Carolina HD48 - Open R seat; candidates are D Kathy Cantrell and R Ralph Norman (who used to represent this district; you may remember from his 2006 run for John Spratt's seat).

Washington HD9 - R seat, race between two Rs, Susan Fagan and Pat Hailey. Yawn.
Washington HD15 - Appointed R David Taylor is running for the rest of his term; candidates are he and Dem John Gotts.
Washington HD16 - Same with appointed D Laura Grant; her opponent is R Terry Nealey.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 18, 2009, 07:02:14 pm
And the chances of the Democrats actually losing control are essentially nil due to way seats are elected: only half of the seats are up for election.

You're mistaken there.  From the New Jersey Legislature's Our Legislature (http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/legislativepub/our.asp) page:

Quote
Legislative elections are held in November of each odd-numbered year. Members of the Assembly serve two-year terms. Senators serve four-year terms, except for the first term of a new decade, which is only two years. This "2-4-4" cycle allows for elections from new districts as soon as possible after each reapportionment.

Two State Assemblymen/women (in each odd year) and one State Senator (in years ending in "1", "3" or "7") are elected from each Legislative district.  Comparing both the 2007 primary (http://www.njelections.org/2007_primary_election.html) and general (http://www.njelections.org/2007_general_election.html) election results for State Senate and General Assembly, normal "block voting" or "plurality at large" seems to be used for elections to the New Jersey General Assembly.  Interestingly though, two Assembly candidates can bracket themselves with each other.  Slogans are used in the primary to indicate ideology or who are the "regular" party candidates (presumably those endorsed by the local county committee).  I'm not sure if voters can vote for both candidates by checking one box of not, but they clearly don't have to as I see candidates bracketed with each other with different vote totals.  Perhaps a New Jersey forumite can explain how that works, and whether or not New Jersey has a "big box" or "one lever" voting option in the general election (Maine got rid of its big box in 1972).

Nope, you need to vote for each candidate separately.  There's no party-line lever.


And there are two Special Elections in New Jersey for the State Senate, though neither is competitive.

Senate District 6 was Adler's old district, it's pretty safely Democratic.
Senate District 23 was Lance's old district, it's pretty safely Republican.

If either flips, it'll be 6 due to the environment, but certainly if something happens there it'll be really ugly on the Assembly side.  Like, REALLY ugly.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Mr.Phips on October 18, 2009, 09:24:03 pm
And the chances of the Democrats actually losing control are essentially nil due to way seats are elected: only half of the seats are up for election.

You're mistaken there.  From the New Jersey Legislature's Our Legislature (http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/legislativepub/our.asp) page:

Quote
Legislative elections are held in November of each odd-numbered year. Members of the Assembly serve two-year terms. Senators serve four-year terms, except for the first term of a new decade, which is only two years. This "2-4-4" cycle allows for elections from new districts as soon as possible after each reapportionment.

Two State Assemblymen/women (in each odd year) and one State Senator (in years ending in "1", "3" or "7") are elected from each Legislative district.  Comparing both the 2007 primary (http://www.njelections.org/2007_primary_election.html) and general (http://www.njelections.org/2007_general_election.html) election results for State Senate and General Assembly, normal "block voting" or "plurality at large" seems to be used for elections to the New Jersey General Assembly.  Interestingly though, two Assembly candidates can bracket themselves with each other.  Slogans are used in the primary to indicate ideology or who are the "regular" party candidates (presumably those endorsed by the local county committee).  I'm not sure if voters can vote for both candidates by checking one box of not, but they clearly don't have to as I see candidates bracketed with each other with different vote totals.  Perhaps a New Jersey forumite can explain how that works, and whether or not New Jersey has a "big box" or "one lever" voting option in the general election (Maine got rid of its big box in 1972).

Nope, you need to vote for each candidate separately.  There's no party-line lever.


And there are two Special Elections in New Jersey for the State Senate, though neither is competitive.

Senate District 6 was Adler's old district, it's pretty safely Democratic.
Senate District 23 was Lance's old district, it's pretty safely Republican.

If either flips, it'll be 6 due to the environment, but certainly if something happens there it'll be really ugly on the Assembly side.  Like, REALLY ugly.

Adler's seat is Cherry Hill, right?  Even Corzine will probably get at least 60% in that district. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 18, 2009, 09:44:25 pm
And the chances of the Democrats actually losing control are essentially nil due to way seats are elected: only half of the seats are up for election.

You're mistaken there.  From the New Jersey Legislature's Our Legislature (http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/legislativepub/our.asp) page:

Quote
Legislative elections are held in November of each odd-numbered year. Members of the Assembly serve two-year terms. Senators serve four-year terms, except for the first term of a new decade, which is only two years. This "2-4-4" cycle allows for elections from new districts as soon as possible after each reapportionment.

Two State Assemblymen/women (in each odd year) and one State Senator (in years ending in "1", "3" or "7") are elected from each Legislative district.  Comparing both the 2007 primary (http://www.njelections.org/2007_primary_election.html) and general (http://www.njelections.org/2007_general_election.html) election results for State Senate and General Assembly, normal "block voting" or "plurality at large" seems to be used for elections to the New Jersey General Assembly.  Interestingly though, two Assembly candidates can bracket themselves with each other.  Slogans are used in the primary to indicate ideology or who are the "regular" party candidates (presumably those endorsed by the local county committee).  I'm not sure if voters can vote for both candidates by checking one box of not, but they clearly don't have to as I see candidates bracketed with each other with different vote totals.  Perhaps a New Jersey forumite can explain how that works, and whether or not New Jersey has a "big box" or "one lever" voting option in the general election (Maine got rid of its big box in 1972).

Nope, you need to vote for each candidate separately.  There's no party-line lever.


And there are two Special Elections in New Jersey for the State Senate, though neither is competitive.

Senate District 6 was Adler's old district, it's pretty safely Democratic.
Senate District 23 was Lance's old district, it's pretty safely Republican.

If either flips, it'll be 6 due to the environment, but certainly if something happens there it'll be really ugly on the Assembly side.  Like, REALLY ugly.

Adler's seat is Cherry Hill, right?  Even Corzine will probably get at least 60% in that district. 

Yeah, Cherry Hill is the anchor of the seat. It's not Democratic enough for Corzine to get 60%, though.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on October 22, 2009, 04:58:48 am
Georgia SD1 - Open R seat, two Rs running: Buddy Carter and Billy Hair.

Eric Johnson's seat; he's resigned to run for governor.

This district is the white part of Chatham County (so minus most of Savannah) along with adjacent Bryan and Liberty Counties. Carter's the former mayor of Pooler (in Chatham), and represents an Assembly District that overlaps with this Senate district basically just in the immediate vicinity of Pooler (which is a sizeable chunk of the district, but still). He seems to be pretty popular. Billy Hair was the two-term Chatham County Commission Chairman for, I believe, 1998-2006.

My guess is that west Chatham goes strongly for Carter and rest of the county for Hair. I have no idea how things are on the ground but my best guess says that Carter carries the other two counties and keeps the margin in Chatham close enough for a victory. This is just a guess though, I'm assuming Carter's more involved here since he's actually giving up an elected position while Hair is in election semi-retirement. Consider this race to lean Carter.

Quote
Georgia SD35 - Open D seat, there are nine (!) Democrats running and no Republicans. The Georgia races will require a runoff if nobody gets 50%+1.

Kasim Reed's seat; he's resigning to run for mayor of Atlanta. The district is south Fulton plus part of Douglas County/Douglasville. About two thirds black.

With so many candidates it's of course going to a run-off. Nobody's probably getting more than 30%. Donzella James was this district's Senator for eight years in the 90's so the voters might remember her. Her, Torrey Johnson, Kemiziche Atterbury, and Benny Crane are the likely names for a run-off, though with this many candidates anything can really happen.

I'll talk about the house races tomorrow.

Quote
Georgia HD58 - Open D seat, four Ds and an I running.
Georgia HD75 - Open D seat; candidates are D Ron Dodson and R Shawn James.
Georgia HD129 - Open R seat, 4 Rs running.
Georgia HD141 - Open D seat; candidates are D Darrell Black, Rs Angela Gheesling-McCommon and Casey Tucker, and I "Rusty" Kidd. This is probably the only one that will be interesting.
Georgia HD159 - Open R seat, two Rs running: Ann Purcell and Jesse Tyler.



Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on October 22, 2009, 06:22:01 pm
Quote
Georgia HD58 - Open D seat, four Ds and an I running.

far east Atlanta, including (I think) all of the Dekalb part of the city. About two-thirds black but with some white voters in some of those newly gentrified neighborhoods like Cabbagetown, parts of Reynoldstown, etc.

Kevin Johnson has apparently been working hard as all hell to win this race, apparently personally canvassing every single home in the district. Expect him to win outright, though Michael McPherson could pull him into a runoff if his Cabbagetown base holds for him. McPherson also has good connections with the State Senators in the area (previously working for two of them) though I don't know if that will do much in terms of voter support. If black turnout is incredibly low McPherson could win, but I doubt it.

Quote
Georgia HD75 - Open D seat; candidates are D Ron Dodson and R Shawn James.

This one is actually really interesting. Black majority district in central Clayton County (city of Forest Park) and there's practically nothing to be found about it in the print media or on the internet. Ron Dodson is a white guy that held the district from 1998 to 2006, and won legislator of the year once apparently. Shawn James is a black guy whose campaign is making no reference to his party affiliation. I'm assuming that Ron Dodson will cruise back into his old seat but depending on what's happening on the ground, anything could happen.

Quote
Georgia HD129 - Open R seat, 4 Rs running.

Rural/suburbanish area just north of Colombus. Vance Smith resigned to take a seat on the state Transportation Commission. The biggest candidate looks to be his son, Kip Smith. The other candidates are two businessmen (Steve Earles and Jerry Luquire) and Former Representative Earl Davis, who held this seat from 1969-1974 (lol). This is a part of the state that's a bit behind the times- none of the candidates have anything on the internet, and most of the newspapers don't really have much in the way of a website either.

Because of that handicap I'm guessing this half-blind, but unless Kip's campaign has been blunderingly incompetent I assume he'll win convincingly.

Quote
Georgia HD159 - Open R seat, two Rs running: Ann Purcell and Jesse Tyler.

Purcell is from Pooler and held this seat until Carter kicked her out of it in 2004. Tyler is 25, the Vice Chairman of Georgia College Republicans, and has a lot of big campaign work experience. I assume Tyler will win but that depends on how much of Purcell's old base has stayed with her.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on October 22, 2009, 06:27:14 pm
Quote
Georgia HD141 - Open D seat; candidates are D Darrell Black, Rs Angela Gheesling-McCommon and Casey Tucker, and I "Rusty" Kidd. This is probably the only one that will be interesting.

This district is Baldwin County; Millidgeville. About 40% black. It's a college town so white voters are a bit less Republican than normal. I agree with you that this is the most interesting race.

Darrell Black is a white Democrat and a businessman. He's running TV ads, and I think is the only candidate doing so.

Angela Gheesling-McCommon is the director of the County Development Authority and the candidate the county Republican Party seems to be lining behind.

Casey Tucker is a 22 year old that just graduated and is running for office. Non-factor; at best he'll drain some of the conservative student vote away from Gheesling-McCommon.

But now, for Rusty Kidd. This guy's just awesome. For all four years of high school he was the starting quarterback at Baldwin High School, and a basketball player too. His father held this seat for a decade, served on the Baldwin County Commission, and then held the area's State Senate seat for thirty years (1962-1992). He's definitely got huge recognition in the district. Also, his sister was a Congresswoman (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tillie_K._Fowler) known for being a feminist Republican.

He's been a state lobbyist since 1972, with a list on his website of all the different groups he's represented. Jimmy Carter called him "the most influential lobbyist in the state" once. He's also built an insurance agency in the Baldwin area from the ground up, which now has seventeen offices throughout Middle Georgia.

He has huge civic connections in the county as well, being on the board of the local Habitat for Humanity, Chairman of the state Special Olympics, and donates money to dozens of local causes. He even gave his own stand-up wheelchair to a Milledgeville barber that recently became paralyzed.

Oh yeah, wheelchair. About that: Kidd is paraplegic.

(http://rustykidd.com/sitebuilder/images/rusty_kidd-6104-400x600.jpg)

His policies are very well thought out, seems to have a strong following, and argues that because of his extensive personal connections from lobbying he will be effective and bipartisan without needing to tie himself to the less reputable elements of either party.

TELL ME YOU WOULDN'T VOTE FOR THIS GUY. JUST TRY IT.

badass epitomized (http://rustykidd.com/index.html)

Honestly, though, I'm assuming this will be going to a runoff between two of the three "real" candidates, and it will be close. No idea about anything else but I'm definitely crossing my fingers for some awesome independent win here.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 22, 2009, 07:11:12 pm
It's weird to see multiple former Reps running for these seats. In Virginia, I can only think of one former State Rep who returned to the House of Delegates (Al Pollard).

Anyway, thanks for the detailed look at these races.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 24, 2009, 01:22:48 am
Atlanta Mayor Poll by InsiderAdvantage:

Mary Norwood -- 41 percent
Kasim Reed -- 22 percent
Lisa Borders -- 17 percent
Jesse Spikes -- 2 percent

Other -- 2 percent
Undecided -- 16 percent

http://www.wsbtv.com/politics/21403359/detail.html


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 28, 2009, 07:20:04 am
Steve Beshear worked his voodoo again, and now there's another open Republican State Senate seat in Kentucky (the incumbent was appointed to a circuit court judgeship). It'll be decided on 12/8, the same day as an election to replace State Rep. Robin Webb who won the last state senate special election. The likely candidates are a Republican State Rep. and a former Democratic State Rep.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Meeker on October 28, 2009, 07:24:15 am
Who knew Steve Beshear was such a hardball politico? I approve.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 03, 2009, 11:48:02 pm
Quote
Alabama HD65 - D Mark Keahey was elected to the State Senate, candidates are D Elaine Beech and R Jerry Reed.

Beech held this one 53-47.

Quote
Georgia HD75 - Open D seat; candidates are D Ron Dodson and R Shawn James.

D won 60-40.

Quote
Georgia HD141 - Open D seat; candidates are D Darrell Black, Rs Angela Gheesling-McCommon and Casey Tucker, and I "Rusty" Kidd. This is probably the only one that will be interesting.

Runoff between "Rusty" Kidd and either Darrell Black or Angela yadda yadda.

Quote
Michigan SD19 - Mark Schauer's Senate seat, don't know why it took them a year to fill it, but the candidates are D State Rep. Martin Griffin and R ex-State Rep. Mike Nofs.

Dems didn't even try to hold this one; Nofs won with over 60%.

Quote
Missouri HD73 - Same as above but without a clever joke; D Steve Brown is out. Candidates are D Stacey Newman and R Daniel O'Sullivan.

Easy Dem hold, 61.5 - 38.5.

Quote
New Hampshire HD Merrimack-11 - Open D seat. Candidates are D Jim MacKay and R Lynne Blankenbeker. Funnily enough, both unsuccessfully ran as Republicans in 2008 (it's normally a 5-member district). MacKay used to be in the legislature, in fact.

Blankenbeker by 20 votes (858 - 838); recount probable.

Quote
South Carolina HD48 - Open R seat; candidates are D Kathy Cantrell and R Ralph Norman (who used to represent this district; you may remember from his 2006 run for John Spratt's seat).

Norman won 72-28.

Quote
Washington HD16 - Same with appointed D Laura Grant; her opponent is R Terry Nealey.

Grant is getting shellacked 57-43 currently.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 04, 2009, 12:01:40 am
And with the landslide victory in Virginia, there will be two state senate special elections, probably in January:

Senate District 8 (part of Virginia Beach) - Republican Ken Stolle was elected Sheriff, and his district is GOP-leaning in the best of Democratic times. Kaine got 47% here in 2005, and it went 54-44 for McCain last year. Virginia Beach City Council member Rosemary Wilson and Stolle pal/ex-Amerigroup CEO Jeff McWaters are duking it out for the Republican nomination; it's unclear whether there will even be a Democrat running. There's a possible independent, some guy named Omar Pickron. I guess I could vote for him if the Democrats don't field anyone.

Senate District 37 (part of Fairfax County) - Republican Ken Cuccinelli was elected Attorney General. Generally a Dem-leaning seat, although obviously not tonight; it went 55-43 for Kaine and 55-44 Obama. Potential Democratic candidates include Dels. David Bulova and Dave Marsden (although perhaps not Marsden, given his narrow win tonight); Republicans might field Sully District Supervisor Michael Frey.

There's also the possibility of McDonnell appointing a Democrat in a vulnerable seat to his administration as a show of bipartisanship/easy seat pickup; Kaine did it in 2006.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 06, 2009, 08:29:31 pm
37th update - Looks like Marsden is the front-runner for the Democrats (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2009/11/oleszek_out_for_senate_marsden.html), while three Republicans (two generic business types and a former school board member) are running. (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2009/11/virginia.html)


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Bono on November 07, 2009, 01:24:24 pm
Next Tuesday, Alabama House district 56, formerly Dem (this is a runoff), and Rhode Island House district 10, also formerly D.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 07, 2009, 04:17:01 pm
37th update - Looks like Marsden is the front-runner for the Democrats (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2009/11/oleszek_out_for_senate_marsden.html), while three Republicans (two generic business types and a former school board member) are running. (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2009/11/virginia.html)

Democrats should be able to pick up the 37th.  Im sure they are hungry for a win after last Tuesday. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 07, 2009, 05:48:11 pm
37th update - Looks like Marsden is the front-runner for the Democrats (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2009/11/oleszek_out_for_senate_marsden.html), while three Republicans (two generic business types and a former school board member) are running. (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2009/11/virginia.html)

Democrats should be able to pick up the 37th.  Im sure they are hungry for a win after last Tuesday. 

Never underestimate the laziness of Democratic voters. They nearly lost the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors chairmanship and Brian Moran's House of Delegates seat (and *did* lose Sharon Bulova's BoS seat) back in January.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 07, 2009, 06:04:59 pm
37th update - Looks like Marsden is the front-runner for the Democrats (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2009/11/oleszek_out_for_senate_marsden.html), while three Republicans (two generic business types and a former school board member) are running. (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2009/11/virginia.html)

Democrats should be able to pick up the 37th.  Im sure they are hungry for a win after last Tuesday. 

Never underestimate the laziness of Democratic voters. They nearly lost the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors chairmanship and Brian Moran's House of Delegates seat (and *did* lose Sharon Bulova's BoS seat) back in January.

I dont think they will be lazy anymore after what happened on Tuesday. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 11, 2009, 08:36:45 pm
Special for a House seat in Rhode Island. Dem hold... and the Republican came in third: (http://www2.turnto10.com/jar/news/local/local_govtpolitics/article/slater_wins_special_election_to_replace_father/26592/)

Scott Slater (D) - 661
Wilbur Jennings (I) - 232
Maurice Green (R) - 116



Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Meeker on November 11, 2009, 10:02:01 pm
But CARL said...


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 11, 2009, 10:30:21 pm
Well, father Slater got 87% in 2008, so obviously Slater the Younger's 66% result is a horrible sign for the Democrats.

Maybe the Republicans in Rhode Island should just disband and join that new Moderate Party. They might have more electoral success.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 12, 2009, 07:57:55 pm
661 votes? For a State Senate election?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 12, 2009, 10:13:17 pm
State House. 75 House districts into 1,050,000 people in the state comes out to about 14,000 citizens per district.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 18, 2009, 08:05:50 am
Two elections tonight. First, in Mississippi, Republicans held an open Republican seat 53-47:

http://www.wlox.com/Global/story.asp?S=11525428

Special elections in MS are nonpartisan, but DeLano is a Republican.

In California, the Assembly seat held by the guy who was in bed with lobbyists is advancing to a runoff:

http://www.ocvote.com/live/72ndpri/results.htm

First round results:

CHRIS NORBY (REP)    14,038    37.2%
JOHN MACMURRAY (DEM)    10,201    27.1%
LINDA ACKERMAN (REP)    7,416    19.7%
RICHARD FAHER (REP)    4,986    13.2%
JANE RANDS (GRN)    1,067    2.8%

Norby, MacMurray and Rands advance to round 2.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 23, 2009, 09:40:49 pm
Ahnold picked State Sen. Abel Maldonado as his new Lt. Governor (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/11/23/BARO1APDQA.DTL), giving the Democrats a good shot at picking up his seat.

Also, the SD-37 election in Virginia has been set for January 12. Republican nomination will be on December 1. I can't find when the Democratic nomination is, but it doesn't matter, as it looks like it'll be Marsden.

For SD-8, the Republican nomination (the de facto election) will be decided on December 5. No word on when the actual election is, but it doesn't matter, as the Democrats aren't even going to put someone up for that one.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Bono on November 24, 2009, 05:29:37 am
Iowa House District 33 today, on a Dem open seat.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Bono on November 25, 2009, 04:17:30 am
Dems retained seat, as expected (it was the Cedar Rapids district).


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 25, 2009, 07:41:56 am
By a 78-22 margin, no less. It was 70-30 in 2008, so using Carl logic, this is terrible news for the Republicans.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Bono on November 26, 2009, 06:06:42 am
By a 78-22 margin, no less. It was 70-30 in 2008, so using Carl logic, this is terrible news for the Republicans.

::)

Next week runoffs for all those Georgia specials last month (House districts 58 (D), 129 (R) and 141 (D) and Senate district 35 (D)) and Tennessee Senate district 31 (R).


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Meeker on November 26, 2009, 05:59:48 pm
By a 78-22 margin, no less. It was 70-30 in 2008, so using Carl logic, this is terrible news for the Republicans.

::)

Yes, CARL's logic is ridiculous.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 05, 2009, 05:41:11 pm
The field is set (more or less) for the two State Senate special elections in Virginia on 1/12:

In the 8th, businessman Jeff McWaters defeated Virginia Beach City Council member Rosemary Wilson for the Republican nomination. He will likely be unopposed in the general (no Democrat is running, and independents must file by next Friday).

In the 37th, Republicans nominated former school board member Steve Hunt to face off against Democratic Del. Dave Marsden.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Bono on December 06, 2009, 05:52:43 am
By a 78-22 margin, no less. It was 70-30 in 2008, so using Carl logic, this is terrible news for the Republicans.

::)

Next week runoffs for all those Georgia specials last month (House districts 58 (D), 129 (R) and 141 (D) and Senate district 35 (D)) and Tennessee Senate district 31 (R).

By the way, the Georgia and Tennessee Senate districts were retained by respectively the Dems and the Reps.

In the Georgia House, the Dems retained 58, the GOP retained 129, the and Dems lost 141 to an independent who still hasn't announced who he'll caucus with.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Bono on December 07, 2009, 02:42:19 pm
Tomorrow:

Arkansas Senate 4 (R), Kentucky Senate 14 (R) and Kentucky House 96 (D).


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 08, 2009, 07:41:30 pm
Republicans picked up KY HD-96. SD-14 is still pending, but the Republican currently has a 2,088-vote lead.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Mr.Phips on December 08, 2009, 07:46:26 pm
This special election in Kentucky brings Republicans up to a net gain of 10 seats in special electoins since Obama's election.

I dont think Democrats will be winning much of anything until they can get Obama out of the White House.  This is almost as bad as Nixon to the Republicans in 1974. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 08, 2009, 07:53:35 pm
Republicans hold SD-14.

Edit: That's a ridiculous overreaction.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 08, 2009, 07:55:31 pm
Republicans hold SD-14.

Edit: That's a ridiculous overreaction.

Especially as they've picked up one (or was it two?) seats in Kentucky in other special elections this year. Where in Kentucky bist this seat? Numbers can confuse me, especially when tired.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 08, 2009, 08:02:51 pm
Republicans hold SD-14.

Edit: That's a ridiculous overreaction.

Especially as they've picked up one (or was it two?) seats in Kentucky in other special elections this year. Where in Kentucky bist this seat? Numbers can confuse me, especially when tired.

Central KY, southeast of Louisville.

http://www.lrc.ky.gov/GIS/Senate%20Simple/s014s.pdf


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Hash on December 08, 2009, 08:16:33 pm
I dont think Democrats will be winning much of anything until they can get Obama out of the White House.  This is almost as bad as Nixon to the Republicans in 1974. 

Let's stop overreacting and deciding the future of politics based on a bunch of stupid by-elections to a state legislature.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 08, 2009, 08:24:46 pm
Republicans hold SD-14.

Edit: That's a ridiculous overreaction.

Especially as they've picked up one (or was it two?) seats in Kentucky in other special elections this year. Where in Kentucky bist this seat? Numbers can confuse me, especially when tired.

Central KY, southeast of Louisville.

http://www.lrc.ky.gov/GIS/Senate%20Simple/s014s.pdf

Ah, right. Pretty mixed area. Now, I think I do know where the State House seat the Democrats lost is (Lewis county, Carter county... maybe some other areas), and... no, that's not a surprise (or shouldn't be). Perhaps reasons to be concerned at the margin, though, hey turnout at below 20%.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Bono on December 09, 2009, 05:10:58 am
GOP also held the Arkansas seat (district 4).


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on December 10, 2009, 11:31:02 am
Republicans hold SD-14.

Edit: That's a ridiculous overreaction.

Especially considering there was a net Democratic gain of one House, and also a notable failure to take Gillibrand's.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Bono on December 10, 2009, 04:21:12 pm
Republicans hold SD-14.

Edit: That's a ridiculous overreaction.

Especially considering there was a net Democratic gain of one House, and also a notable failure to take Gillibrand's.
What house did the democrats gain?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Meeker on December 10, 2009, 04:24:00 pm
Republicans hold SD-14.

Edit: That's a ridiculous overreaction.

Especially considering there was a net Democratic gain of one House, and also a notable failure to take Gillibrand's.
What house did the democrats gain?

I think he meant House seat, referring to NY-23.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Lunar on December 10, 2009, 05:27:24 pm
Republicans hold SD-14.

Edit: That's a ridiculous overreaction.

Especially considering there was a net Democratic gain of one House, and also a notable failure to take Gillibrand's.
What house did the democrats gain?

I think he meant House seat, referring to NY-23.

no I think he was talking about this house:
(http://farm1.static.flickr.com/113/301109981_de82ab37b5.jpg?v=0)


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on December 11, 2009, 02:35:45 am
No I was referring to NY-23. Please note the time of posting, not exactly a time I'm fully awake.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 12, 2009, 08:07:13 am
I'm about to have a heart attack. The inept, moribund Virginia Beach Democratic Party actually put someone up against Jeff McWaters in the 8th Senate district. He won't get anywhere near winning, but at least I have someone to vote for on January 12.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on December 12, 2009, 09:01:45 am
Congratulations! You should consider yourself insanely lucky. I think throwing a party is in order.

(http://i235.photobucket.com/albums/ee66/spookannie/PartyHatKids.jpg)

I'm laughing with you, not at you.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on December 13, 2009, 05:52:55 pm
I'm about to have a heart attack. The inept, moribund Virginia Beach Democratic Party actually put someone up against Jeff McWaters in the 8th Senate district. He won't get anywhere near winning, but at least I have someone to vote for on January 12.

If they're that bad how they did take out Thelma Drake?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 13, 2009, 06:18:35 pm
I'm about to have a heart attack. The inept, moribund Virginia Beach Democratic Party actually put someone up against Jeff McWaters in the 8th Senate district. He won't get anywhere near winning, but at least I have someone to vote for on January 12.

If they're that bad how they did take out Thelma Drake?

Two reasons: one, Drake was a terrible empty suit of a candidate. Two, Obama coattails. Nye won by a larger margin than Obama did in the 2nd district, but the raw vote totals for Obama and Nye are almost exactly the same in each locality, except in Norfolk, where Obama got about 500 more votes. Nye's probably not going to survive unless the Republican primary gets extremely nasty.

The VBDP can't even come up with candidates most of the time, which is why I'm so surprised. Both the Democrats that won election to the House of Delegates in 2007 lost, and out of the four Republican incumbents, only one has had an opponent in the last two elections. Hell, the 8th hasn't had a Democratic candidate run since the incumbent Democrat lost in 1991.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on December 15, 2009, 04:30:53 pm
Upcoming special election in Minnesota SD26. Sen. Dick Day is resigning January 8 to lead a PAC lobbying to expand gambling allowed at the state's two horse racing tracks (I actually agree with him on this, but talk about a minor issue to resign over.) Primary will be January 12 if needed and election January 26. GOP hold is most likely but I won't rule out a pickup. Call it Lean GOP.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Badger on December 18, 2009, 12:58:35 pm
In a recent confirmed election result I'm sure you're all waiting for, city council elections in my little burg were finalized last week. An acquaintance of mine ran as a nonpartisan (though he was a Republican recently, he was active in the local Obama campaign ;) )among 6 candidates including 3 incumbents for 3 seats. After preliminary vote totals of almost 900 votes he was ahead by 1 vote! After provisional ballots were counted, out of over 900 votes he won by 2. :) I guess his sign in my front yard actually made a difference.

A woman who watches my son afternoons was elected to a nearby village school board. How conservative is my area? She is the first woman ever elected to the board. In 2009!


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Badger on December 18, 2009, 01:01:18 pm
Upcoming special election in Minnesota SD26. Sen. Dick Day is resigning January 8 to lead a PAC lobbying to expand gambling allowed at the state's two horse racing tracks (I actually agree with him on this, but talk about a minor issue to resign over.) Primary will be January 12 if needed and election January 26. GOP hold is most likely but I won't rule out a pickup. Call it Lean GOP.

Issues have little to do with it, I suspect. I'm sure he's being more than handsomely paid for his job switch.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on December 18, 2009, 03:09:32 pm
Eh, probably. It's worth noting Day appears to have little interest in the state legislature anymore, he was former Minority Leader but stepped down after the crushing of the GOP caucus in 2006. He toyed with running against Walz in 2008, but almost admitted his campaign wasn't very serious and lost the convention and didn't run in the primary. Seems rather bored with elected office now, wanting to leave is hardly surprising.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 28, 2009, 08:48:03 am
Upcoming special election in Minnesota SD26. Sen. Dick Day is resigning January 8 to lead a PAC lobbying to expand gambling allowed at the state's two horse racing tracks (I actually agree with him on this, but talk about a minor issue to resign over.) Primary will be January 12 if needed and election January 26. GOP hold is most likely but I won't rule out a pickup. Call it Lean GOP.

A local mayor (Roy Srp of Waseca, not a typo apparently) is running on the Independence Party line. Any chance of an IP pickup?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on December 29, 2009, 11:34:15 am
Upcoming special election in Minnesota SD26. Sen. Dick Day is resigning January 8 to lead a PAC lobbying to expand gambling allowed at the state's two horse racing tracks (I actually agree with him on this, but talk about a minor issue to resign over.) Primary will be January 12 if needed and election January 26. GOP hold is most likely but I won't rule out a pickup. Call it Lean GOP.

A local mayor (Roy Srp of Waseca, not a typo apparently) is running on the Independence Party line. Any chance of an IP pickup?

Waseca is one of the three larger towns in the district (the other two being Owatonna and Faribault), so that could be a solid plus though I don't see him having much appeal in the other two locales. Then again simply not being a Republican or Democrat would benefit someone now. I'd give him a shot if the DFL and GOP candidates suck badly. Worth noting Barkley got over 20% in the district.

The DFL does control both House seats in it, so we have no good excuse for not getting a good candidate though, I'm still hoping the GOP nominates a teabagger nutjob.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Rowan on December 29, 2009, 11:36:13 am
There's a special election for Rhode Island House District 62 today. Obama got about 70% there so it's probably not worth noting.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on December 29, 2009, 11:51:15 am
Well I looked up the candidates picked by the DFL and GOP. Apparently neither State Rep did run. The DFL went with Jason Engbrecht, a physics professor and Faribault school board member. The GOP went with Waseca businessman Mike Parry.

Faribault is the most Democratic of the towns in the district and not the area the DFL needs to focus on, though at least Engbrecht has the right type of last name for this seat. I should do some lit dropping my next weekend.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Northam for Governor '17 on December 29, 2009, 05:38:07 pm
I dont think Democrats will be winning much of anything until they can get Obama out of the White House.  This is almost as bad as Nixon to the Republicans in 1974. 

::)  Are you serious?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 29, 2009, 09:29:03 pm
There's a special election for Rhode Island House District 62 today. Obama got about 70% there so it's probably not worth noting.

Ridiculously low turnout (the last special for a RI House district was about 1,000 votes):

Democrat Mary Duffy Messier - 296 votes (61%)
Republican Thomas Clupny - 175 votes (36%)
Independent Paul A. Dinsmore - 15 votes (3%)

Which does not include 50-ish absentee ballots.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Rowan on December 29, 2009, 09:57:24 pm
There's a special election for Rhode Island House District 62 today. Obama got about 70% there so it's probably not worth noting.

Ridiculously low turnout (the last special for a RI House district was about 1,000 votes):

Democrat Mary Duffy Messier - 296 votes (61%)
Republican Thomas Clupny - 175 votes (36%)
Independent Paul A. Dinsmore - 15 votes (3%)

Which does not include 50-ish absentee ballots.

Do you have a link to those results?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 29, 2009, 10:07:29 pm
There's a special election for Rhode Island House District 62 today. Obama got about 70% there so it's probably not worth noting.

Ridiculously low turnout (the last special for a RI House district was about 1,000 votes):

Democrat Mary Duffy Messier - 296 votes (61%)
Republican Thomas Clupny - 175 votes (36%)
Independent Paul A. Dinsmore - 15 votes (3%)

Which does not include 50-ish absentee ballots.

Do you have a link to those results?

http://www.rifuture.org/myblog/district-62-special-election-results.html


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on December 29, 2009, 10:56:00 pm
Rhode Island House districts only average about 14,000 people per each one. Still pathetic turnout.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 04, 2010, 09:19:18 pm
Another one to look forward to -- New Hampshire's 16th Senate district, previously held by Republican Ted Gatsas, who was elected mayor of Manchester. Will occur February 16.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 08, 2010, 02:02:12 am
Mike Parry (GOP candidate in MN-26) may have blown it. He posted some stuff on Twitter about Obama being a "Power Hungry Arrogant Black Man" and compared the Democratic Party to pedophiles. His excuse was that those comments were "out of frustration over federal spending". Yeah exactly, that leads to racist comments easily.

Still being a special election that could help him if it encourages the crazies to turn out. Srp's chances probably went up though since he could scare away moderate Republicans to him.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 08, 2010, 07:24:16 am
Mike Parry (GOP candidate in MN-26) may have blown it. He posted some stuff on Twitter about Obama being a "Power Hungry Arrogant Black Man" and compared the Democratic Party to pedophiles. His excuse was that those comments were "out of frustration over federal spending". Yeah exactly, that leads to racist comments easily.

Still being a special election that could help him if it encourages the crazies to turn out. Srp's chances probably went up though since he could scare away moderate Republicans to him.

When will Republicans learn not to abuse Twitter?

Fundraising reports through the end of the year for the Virginia Senate elections have been released.

In the 8th, Republican Jeff McWaters raised $821,000 (over half of it a loan from himself), while Democrat Bill Fleming raised $21,000 (which is almost all a contribution from himself). Yes, that's a 40-1 fundraising advantage. I don't know why McWaters needs this so much he is spending a half million of his own money.

In the 37th, Democrat Dave Marsden has raised $380,000, while Republican Steve Hunt has raised $238,000. Both candidates have received a majority of their funds from their respective parties. Interestingly, Marsden has gotten $40,000 more in last-minute contributions since January 1, while Hunt has gotten only $1,000. I guess the Democrats are banking on outspending Hunt to death.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 10, 2010, 03:49:08 am
I'm beginning to think Srp's chances and IP pickup actually are pretty decent. Parry blew it as described above, and Engbrecht hasn't ran much of a campaign at all. Srp also appears to be generating more interest in his campaign stops.

This is just what I'm gathering from blogs and the local news though, I haven't stopped in the district recently.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 11, 2010, 07:24:13 am
The Virginia 8th and 37th Senate elections are tomorrow. My predictions:

8th - Bill Fleming has actually been running a spirited campaign, but there's no way he's winning. I'd say it's about a 70-30 McWaters victory.

37th - This one is a total tossup, I think whoever wins will top out at 51%. My guess is Hunt holds it for the Republicans.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: memphis on January 11, 2010, 07:46:50 am
My state house district (TN-83) has a special election tomorrow. It's a very Republican district, but I've been seeing a lot of signs for the Democrat.  My money is still on the GOP :P


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: memphis on January 12, 2010, 01:22:23 pm
My state house district (TN-83) has a special election tomorrow. It's a very Republican district, but I've been seeing a lot of signs for the Democrat.  My money is still on the GOP :P
I'm pretty annoyed that the local paper didn't even mention the race today. I know it's only part of the city, but they have plenty of room for stupid fluff.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 12, 2010, 06:42:13 pm
There's also a runoff in California's 72nd Assembly district (I think this was the one with the lobbyist-schtupping). Results will show up here (after 11 PM Eastern): http://www.ocvote.com/live/72ndgen/results.htm


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 12, 2010, 08:02:19 pm
Results so far:

McWaters crushes Fleming 79-21 with 30/36 precincts in. (https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2010/818D5A26-7936-4A79-B1B3-C8553FEE5DD5/Unofficial/..%5C..%5C..%5C..%5CData%5C2010%5CBDE55783-4682-4517-A020-2D7C5F0A0A55%5Cunofficial%5C7_s.shtml)

Marsden leads Hunt 52-48 with 18/40 precincts in. (https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2010/818D5A26-7936-4A79-B1B3-C8553FEE5DD5/Unofficial/00_059_s.shtml)


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Nhoj on January 12, 2010, 08:22:02 pm
Results so far:

McWaters crushes Fleming 79-21 with 30/36 precincts in. (https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2010/818D5A26-7936-4A79-B1B3-C8553FEE5DD5/Unofficial/..%5C..%5C..%5C..%5CData%5C2010%5CBDE55783-4682-4517-A020-2D7C5F0A0A55%5Cunofficial%5C7_s.shtml)

Marsden leads Hunt 52-48 with 18/40 precincts in. (https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2010/818D5A26-7936-4A79-B1B3-C8553FEE5DD5/Unofficial/00_059_s.shtml)
So is marsden likely to win? or are the outstanding precincts more republican?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 12, 2010, 08:31:16 pm
Of the eight precincts left, four were won by the Republican (Cuccinelli) in 2007, while three were won by the Democrat (Oleszek). One precinct is new since 2007. I can't predict the winner at this point.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 12, 2010, 08:40:20 pm
Three precincts left and Marsden's up by 400 votes. I think he's won. Amazingly.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Mr.Phips on January 12, 2010, 08:53:53 pm
I think having McDonnell as governor may have prompted some voters to choose Marsden so that Republicans would not have a chance to control the whole state government. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 12, 2010, 09:00:02 pm
Moderates might also have been scared off by Hunt, who's a firebreathing conservative. Cuccinelli was as well, but he worked hard to maintain a genial, acceptable-to-moderates image and to ingratiate himself with voters.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Rowan on January 12, 2010, 09:03:06 pm
Whoever was in charge of absentees for the GOP really dropped the ball. Those were the difference.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Meeker on January 12, 2010, 09:07:31 pm
What's recount law in Virginia? The margin's greater than 1% with 40 out of 40 reporting so I suspect we're in the clear.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 12, 2010, 09:10:38 pm
It has to be within, I think, 0.5% for the state to pick up the tab for a recount. It hardly matters, it's not like there's anything to recount. In the last recount (for a House of Delegates district), the margin changed by something like 3 or 4 votes.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: MaxQue on January 12, 2010, 09:19:33 pm
My state house district (TN-83) has a special election tomorrow. It's a very Republican district, but I've been seeing a lot of signs for the Democrat.  My money is still on the GOP :P
I'm pretty annoyed that the local paper didn't even mention the race today. I know it's only part of the city, but they have plenty of room for stupid fluff.

With absentees, early and 17 of the 20 precincts reporting:

Mark White (R): 2562 (66.6%)
Guthrie Castle (D): 1194 (31%)
John Andreuccetti (I): 95 (2.5%)


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: MaxQue on January 12, 2010, 09:24:23 pm
Virginia 8th Senate

40/40

Jeff L. McWaters (R): 8,051 votes (78.59%)
William W. "Bill" Fleming (D): 2,184 votes (21.31%)
Write-in: 9 votes (0.08%)


Virginia 37th Senate

40/40

Dave W. Marsden (D): 11,943 votes (50.62%)
Steve M. Hunt (R): 11,626 votes (49.28%)
Write-in: 21 votes (0.08%)


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: MaxQue on January 12, 2010, 09:35:10 pm
There's also a runoff in California's 72nd Assembly district (I think this was the one with the lobbyist-schtupping). Results will show up here (after 11 PM Eastern): http://www.ocvote.com/live/72ndgen/results.htm

The Republican won only with 55% of votes last election. I think than both parties can win this seat, but Republicans are more likely to win, they have an advantage in partisan registration. Sure, I don't know at all that area.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: rbt48 on January 12, 2010, 10:03:04 pm
Virginia 8th Senate

40/40

Jeff L. McWaters (R): 8,051 votes (78.59%)
William W. "Bill" Fleming (D): 2,184 votes (21.31%)
Write-in: 9 votes (0.08%)


Virginia 37th Senate

40/40

Dave W. Marsden (D): 11,943 votes (50.62%)
Steve M. Hunt (R): 11,626 votes (49.28%)
Write-in: 21 votes (0.08%)
So does this make the Virginia Senate 22D, 18R?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: MaxQue on January 12, 2010, 10:09:43 pm
Virginia 8th Senate

40/40

Jeff L. McWaters (R): 8,051 votes (78.59%)
William W. "Bill" Fleming (D): 2,184 votes (21.31%)
Write-in: 9 votes (0.08%)


Virginia 37th Senate

40/40

Dave W. Marsden (D): 11,943 votes (50.62%)
Steve M. Hunt (R): 11,626 votes (49.28%)
Write-in: 21 votes (0.08%)
So does this make the Virginia Senate 22D, 18R?

I think so.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 12, 2010, 10:11:18 pm
That's correct.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: MaxQue on January 12, 2010, 10:12:45 pm
Tennessee 83rd House

With absentees, early and 20 of the 20 precincts reporting:

Mark White (R): 3236 (67.44%)
Guthrie Castle (D): 1452 (30.26%)
John Andreuccetti (I): 110 (2.29%)

So, I think than the house is 50R-48D-1 expelled Republican who gave the control of the house to the Democrats in exchange of him being elected President of the House.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 12, 2010, 10:23:43 pm
My state house district (TN-83) has a special election tomorrow. It's a very Republican district, but I've been seeing a lot of signs for the Democrat.  My money is still on the GOP :P

So this is where you live?

http://www.capitol.tn.gov/districtmaps/House83.pdf

Looks pretty awful honestly.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: MaxQue on January 12, 2010, 11:57:21 pm
California House 72nd

After Vote-by-Mail ballots and 29/197 precincts

Chris Norby (R) 16,622 (62.3%)
John MacMurray (D) 8,421 (31.5%)
Jane Rands (G) 1,657 (6.2%)


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 13, 2010, 12:01:27 am
What type of place is Virginia-8?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: MaxQue on January 13, 2010, 12:03:24 am
What type of place is Virginia-8?

Virginia Atlantic Coast from Virginia Beach to the North Carolina border.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 13, 2010, 12:04:45 am
What type of place is Virginia-8?

Virginia Atlantic Coast from Virginia Beach to the North Carolina border.

Is it one of those districts drawn specifically to remove all the blacks?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: MaxQue on January 13, 2010, 12:22:19 am
What type of place is Virginia-8?

Virginia Atlantic Coast from Virginia Beach to the North Carolina border.

Is it one of those districts drawn specifically to remove all the blacks?

It seems to have a normal shape. There is not much blacks in Virginia Beach, anyways, so I would say no. It is only a district based on Eastern Virginia Beach with a very normal shape, I think.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 13, 2010, 12:52:56 am
I always figured blacks were the only reason Obama won VA-02 and Thelma Drake went down. He maximized black turnout and that helped all Democrats downballot.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: MaxQue on January 13, 2010, 01:05:05 am
I always figured blacks were the only reason Obama won VA-02 and Thelma Drake went down. He maximized black turnout and that helped all Democrats downballot.

Well, perhaps, but Virginia State Senate 8 is not covering all of Virginia Beach. Most precincts voted for McCain in Virginia State Senate 8.

Edit: Black neighboorhoods are near Norfolk city limit, so not in that district, from what I read.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: MaxQue on January 13, 2010, 01:33:56 am
California House 72nd

After Vote-by-Mail ballots and 197/197 precincts

Chris Norby (R) 20,292 (62.9%)
John MacMurray (D) 10,018 (31.0%)
Jane Rands (G) 1,963 (6.1%)

Turnout was 14.8% (12.0% by mail, 2.8% in precincts)


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 13, 2010, 07:47:04 am
The northern end (north of I-264) of the 8th district is dominated by country club Republicans, while the southern end (south of Dam Neck road) is still pretty rural. Of course, in the middle is NAS Oceana, so you've got military there too. There are a few Democratic precincts in the district mostly due to apartment complexes, but it's overall solidly Republican. Incidentally, John McCain's ex-wife and son live here.

The black population in Virginia Beach is along the border with Norfolk and in the Green Run area (around where Lynnhaven Parkway and Rosemont Road intersect). And yes, Green Run is split up between the 8th and 14th Senate districts.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Hash on January 13, 2010, 08:23:54 am
Could anybody compile a list of all state legislative special elections thus far in 2010?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 13, 2010, 08:42:17 am
I would imagine that the four last night were the first ones of the year, unless there was one last week (if there were, they weren't discussed here).

Edit: Regardless, I started a list in the first post of the thread.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: memphis on January 13, 2010, 11:41:00 am
My state house district (TN-83) has a special election tomorrow. It's a very Republican district, but I've been seeing a lot of signs for the Democrat.  My money is still on the GOP :P

So this is where you live?

http://www.capitol.tn.gov/districtmaps/House83.pdf

Looks pretty awful honestly.
I know, my neighborhood is so flat, yellow, and gerrymandered. I live in the far NW of the district, near where 40 and 240 come together.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 13, 2010, 11:54:54 am
It also has a disgusting street grid. :P


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 13, 2010, 12:01:21 pm
It also has a disgusting street grid. :P

Definitely.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: memphis on January 13, 2010, 12:38:16 pm
It also has a disgusting street grid. :P

Definitely.
Afraid you'd get lost?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: rbt48 on January 13, 2010, 04:45:42 pm
Tennessee 83rd House

With absentees, early and 20 of the 20 precincts reporting:

Mark White (R): 3236 (67.44%)
Guthrie Castle (D): 1452 (30.26%)
John Andreuccetti (I): 110 (2.29%)

So, I think than the house is 50R-48D-1 expelled Republican who gave the control of the house to the Democrats in exchange of him being elected President of the House.
No, I think the House is now back to 49R, 49D, 1 Carter County Republican (Kent Williams).  If it was 50-48-1, the Republicans would replace Williams with the Speaker they wanted.  It must have been a Republican vacancy that Mark White was elected to fill.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Hash on January 13, 2010, 05:22:55 pm
Tennessee 83rd House

With absentees, early and 20 of the 20 precincts reporting:

Mark White (R): 3236 (67.44%)
Guthrie Castle (D): 1452 (30.26%)
John Andreuccetti (I): 110 (2.29%)

So, I think than the house is 50R-48D-1 expelled Republican who gave the control of the house to the Democrats in exchange of him being elected President of the House.
No, I think the House is now back to 49R, 49D, 1 Carter County Republican (Kent Williams).  If it was 50-48-1, the Republicans would replace Williams with the Speaker they wanted.  It must have been a Republican vacancy that Mark White was elected to fill.

Wikipedia says a special election in late 2009 resulted in a Republican winning a Democratic-held seat. So it is 50-48-1.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on January 13, 2010, 05:25:21 pm
While occassionally a special election for a state/local office may be significant in and of itself, it seems to me that it is often more important as an indicator of change.

As such, would appreciate it if the results of the previous election for that office were posted so that readers can discern trends.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 13, 2010, 08:04:38 pm
There were two more in New Hampshire last night, both Republican seats that did stayed Republican:

In the Rockingham-8 district, ex-State Rep. Kenneth Weyler defeated Norm Hurley by a 1,005-287 vote margin.  (http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=House+District+8%3a+Voters+put+Weyler+back+in+office&articleId=c7536425-6bb0-473d-bf94-e9ab0a296d08)

In the Sullivan-2 district, Steven Cunningham beat ex-State Rep. Arthur Jillette by a 616-314 vote margin. (http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=House+District+2%3a+Cunningham+defeats+Jillette+for+state+rep&articleId=8e2325ff-88d0-491b-806a-b1030fb58790)


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on January 13, 2010, 08:37:33 pm
Orange County - Assembly District 72

100.00% (197 of 197) precincts partially or fully reporting as of Jan 12, 2010, 10:35 p.m.

CandidateVotesPercent
Chris Norby (Rep)20,29262.88%
John MacMurray (Dem)10,01831.04%
Jane Rands (Grn)1,9636.08%


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on January 13, 2010, 09:11:15 pm
FWIW, a Democrat has already declared his candidacy for Scott Brown's State Senate seat.

Rep. Richard Ross would be the likely Republican candidate, and would presumably be favored in a special election situation.  Not sure if Republicans would be lucky enough for the timing to allow a special election for Ross's seat, but that'd be the ideal situation for them—not that a Wrentham-based seat should be especially competitive, especially in a year like 2010 with Patrick topping the ballot.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: MaxQue on January 14, 2010, 12:10:15 am
While occassionally a special election for a state/local office may be significant in and of itself, it seems to me that it is often more important as an indicator of change.

As such, would appreciate it if the results of the previous election for that office were posted so that readers can discern trends.

Totally disagree than special elections can show a trend, but posting previous result and showing the trend is used in thread for special elections in other countries on the forum, so, it is logic to put them for US elections too, I think.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: MaxQue on January 14, 2010, 12:45:56 am
California Assembly District 72

2008

Michael D. Mike Duvall (R) 79,066 votes (54.8%)
John MacMurray (D) 65,216 votes (45.2%)

2010 special

Chris Norby (R) 21,406 votes (62.7%) (+7.9%)
John MacMurray (D) 10,622 votes (31.1%) (-14.1%)
Jane Rands (G) 2,100 votes (6.2%) (+6.2%)

New Hampshire State Assembly Rockingham Eighth District

2008
7 persons are elected (yes, I know, it is awkward)

Norman L. Major (R) 6,218 votes (12.22%)
Roger G. Wells (R) 5,594 votes (10.99%)
David A. Welsh (R) 5,550 votes (10.91%)
Don Van Patten (R) 5,281 votes (10.38%)
John W. Flanders, Sr. (R) 5,041 votes (9.91%)
John B. Sedensky (R) 5,037 votes (9.90%)
Melissa L.B. Lyons (D) 4,910 votes (9.65%)

Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 4,898 votes (9.63%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 4,432 votes (8.71%)
Joel Saren (D) 3,893 votes (7.65%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

Republican Candidates 37,619 votes (73.93%)
Democrat Candidates 13,235 votes (26.01%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

2010 special election

Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 1,005 votes (77.79%) (+3.86%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 287 votes (22.21%) (-3.80%)

More later...


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on January 14, 2010, 01:00:42 am
Wikipedia says a special election in late 2009 resulted in a Republican winning a Democratic-held seat. So it is 50-48-1.

^ This is correct.  We won District 62.  We can't replace Kent Williams until the end of this term.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on January 14, 2010, 01:07:49 am
My state house district (TN-83) has a special election tomorrow. It's a very Republican district, but I've been seeing a lot of signs for the Democrat.  My money is still on the GOP :P

So this is where you live?

http://www.capitol.tn.gov/districtmaps/House83.pdf

Looks pretty awful honestly.
I know, my neighborhood is so flat, yellow, and gerrymandered. I live in the far NW of the district, near where 40 and 240 come together.

I think you'll find that your new representative has a substantially different leadership style than his predecessor :)

Ironically Castle won two very Republican precincts in your neck of the woods, and White won the non-white (haha) Democratic precincts near Nonconnah Pkwy.  

In the primary White won massively in East Memphis while John Pellicciotti cleaned house in Germantown.... then in the general White squeeks by in East Memphis but wins Germantown by a mile.

And a final irony --  White's GOP primary opponent John Pellicciotti was sworn into public office before Mark White was.... as the other day he was appointed to the Shelby County Commission to replace an appointed Democrat.  Go figure :)

Maps forthcoming.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: MaxQue on January 14, 2010, 01:53:34 am
California Assembly District 72

2008

Michael D. Mike Duvall (R) 79,066 votes (54.8%)
John MacMurray (D) 65,216 votes (45.2%)

2010 special

Chris Norby (R) 21,406 votes (62.7%) (+7.9%)
John MacMurray (D) 10,622 votes (31.1%) (-14.1%)
Jane Rands (G) 2,100 votes (6.2%) (+6.2%)

New Hampshire State Assembly Rockingham Eighth District

2008
7 persons are elected (yes, I know, it is awkward)

Norman L. Major (R) 6,218 votes (12.22%)
Roger G. Wells (R) 5,594 votes (10.99%)
David A. Welsh (R) 5,550 votes (10.91%)
Don Van Patten (R) 5,281 votes (10.38%)
John W. Flanders, Sr. (R) 5,041 votes (9.91%)
John B. Sedensky (R) 5,037 votes (9.90%)
Melissa L.B. Lyons (D) 4,910 votes (9.65%)

Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 4,898 votes (9.63%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 4,432 votes (8.71%)
Joel Saren (D) 3,893 votes (7.65%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

Republican Candidates 37,619 votes (73.93%)
Democrat Candidates 13,235 votes (26.01%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

2010 special election

Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 1,005 votes (77.79%) (+3.86%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 287 votes (22.21%) (-3.80%)

More later...

Should I continue?


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on January 17, 2010, 03:12:31 am
Yes.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: MaxQue on January 17, 2010, 03:54:36 am
Yes.

That will take a couple of days, sorry. I began many things at the same time, but now I miss time to finish them. I'll try to do quickly as possible.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on January 17, 2010, 03:57:38 am
Thanks! :)


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Bono on January 17, 2010, 08:25:28 am
Could anybody compile a list of all state legislative special elections thus far in 2010?

Sure.

January 5
Georgia House District 122  and Senate District 22. Both Dem holds, but in the Senate district there will still be a runoff between two Dems on February 2.

January 12
California Assembly District 72. GOP hold.

New Hampshire House Rockingham County District 8 and Sullivan County District 2. Both GOP.

Tennessee House District 83. GOP hold.

Virginia Senate Districts 8 and 37 . One GOP hold and one Dem pickup.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 18, 2010, 03:32:24 pm
As MN26 nears, I'm going out on a limb and saying that Srp has with a plurality the best chance of winning. Something like 40%, Parry 33%, Engbrecht 27%. Remember this is entirely poll blind.

Srp has run the best campaign by default. He's made a great argument that the district has nothing to lose by electing him since he'll be up in 2010 and they can then elect a Democrat or Republican if they want to. Engbrecht's campaign has mostly been boring, bland Democratic talking points. Parry's campaign has been nothing but shameless extremism. That'd weaken him if it were a general election and he could certainly lose if he gets in unless he tones down in November, but in a special election it might help with the crazies. Engbrecht could win on that in a two-way race, but I see moderate Republicans more likely to flee to Srp.

Ultimately though Srp could still take third if both the GOP and DFL turnout machines are big. Here's the thing though: A DFL victory in this seat requires huge turnout in Faribault, not complete destruction in Owatonna and the rurals, and a slight victory in Waseca. The first bit is up to the DFL. The second two depend on whether or not the moderate Republicans and independents decide to stick with Parry in those areas. The third depends on a DFL machine and Engbrecht keeping moderate Democrats from going to Srp in his hometown. The most likely victory for Engbrecht is probably a huge win in Faribault, a close to tie in Owatonna and the rural parts thanks to Srp siphoning lots of votes from Parry, and a narrow Srp plurality in Waseca. Parry needs Faribault not a landslide, Owatonna and the rural areas very solid and a strong showing in at least second place in Waseca. Srp just needs a huge win (possibly majority) in Waseca and a solid showing everywhere else. Look at Tim Penny's area of support in 2002 and note he was from Waseca, and you'll realize that isn't impossible.

Anyway the IP is closer to their first legitimate pickup in the legislature ever. They've had two seats in the past, one was the former Republican incumbent running for reelection though, the other was a DFL legislator in the north switching parties after being elected and didn't run for reelection.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: rbt48 on January 18, 2010, 08:55:24 pm
Wikipedia says a special election in late 2009 resulted in a Republican winning a Democratic-held seat. So it is 50-48-1.
[/quote]

Well, I guess the Speaker rules with an iron fist and can keep a new vote for Speaker off the agenda, so Williams stays in office until he is voted out by a stronger Republican majority in January, 2011.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 18, 2010, 09:02:40 pm
Never mind the above. I overestimated Waseca's size. It's not big, even in relation to the district. Srp could get 50% there, but if he gets 25% in the rest of the district, that's still not even 30%.

I have to call Parry the favorite then, even if only by plurality. Coleman got 42% in the seat (about his state numbers), Mark Kennedy got 40%. That's a solid GOP base. And though Coleman basically mirrored his state numbers, Barkley got over 20%, and Franken underran. That's good news for Srp. But he needs more than a bunch of votes in Waseca. He could still pull off strong in other areas just by not being Parry or Engbrecht, but he's going to need a lot beyond Barkley's numbers (which themselves were strong) to win.

Parry can be stopped though if enough moderate Republicans in Owatonna jump ship and the DFL turnout operation in Faribault resembles that of 2004 statewide.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 19, 2010, 07:42:01 pm
I've edited the first post in the thread to include upcoming special elections. If there are others that are set, let me know and I'll put them in.

Another one coming up in Virginia is Dave Marsden's House of Delegates seat (HD-41). Democrat Eileen Filler-Corn (yes, that is her actual name), who worked in the Warner and Kaine administrations and ran for the seat way back in 1999 (lost by 17%) has filed to run. Republican Kerry Bolognese, who held Marsden to a 200-ish vote margin last year, is also running.

Filler-Corn's ties to Warner and Kaine should give her a leg up on fundraising. Also, the district is slightly more Democratic than SD-37. Bolognese will have the advantage of name recognition from his previous run, but he won't have McDonnell's coattails to help him this time.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on January 20, 2010, 07:22:42 pm
http://www.boston.com/yourtown/news/needham/2010/01/candidates_eye_browns_seat.html (http://www.boston.com/yourtown/news/needham/2010/01/candidates_eye_browns_seat.html)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: MaxQue on January 24, 2010, 02:16:09 am
I've edited the first post in the thread to include upcoming special elections. If there are others that are set, let me know and I'll put them in.

There is two more special elections in New Hampshire. I'll write for which districts when I'll complete the list of results I began in a realier post.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: MaxQue on January 24, 2010, 06:15:01 am
California Assembly District 72

2008

Michael D. Mike Duvall (R) 79,066 votes (54.8%)
John MacMurray (D) 65,216 votes (45.2%)

2010 special

Chris Norby (R) 21,406 votes (62.7%) (+7.9%)
John MacMurray (D) 10,622 votes (31.1%) (-14.1%)
Jane Rands (G) 2,100 votes (6.2%) (+6.2%)

New Hampshire State Assembly Rockingham Eighth District

2008
7 persons are elected (yes, I know, it is awkward)

Norman L. Major (R) 6,218 votes (12.22%)
Roger G. Wells (R) 5,594 votes (10.99%)
David A. Welsh (R) 5,550 votes (10.91%)
Don Van Patten (R) 5,281 votes (10.38%)
John W. Flanders, Sr. (R) 5,041 votes (9.91%)
John B. Sedensky (R) 5,037 votes (9.90%)
Melissa L.B. Lyons (D) 4,910 votes (9.65%)

Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 4,898 votes (9.63%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 4,432 votes (8.71%)
Joel Saren (D) 3,893 votes (7.65%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

Republican Candidates 37,619 votes (73.93%)
Democrat Candidates 13,235 votes (26.01%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

2010 special election

Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 1,005 votes (77.79%) (+3.86%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 287 votes (22.21%) (-3.80%)


New Hampshire State Assembly Sullivan Second District

2008
3 persons are elected (yes, I know, it is awkward)

Beverly T. Rodeschin (R) 2,608 votes (20.59%)
Anthony Maiola (R) 2,446 votes (19.31%)
Thomas J. Howard (R) 1,984 votes (15.67%)

Arthur G. Jillette, Jr. (D) 1,949 votes (15.39%)
John? Bell (D) 1,888 votes (14.91%)
Peter Franklin (D) 1,784 votes (14.09%)
Others 5 votes (0.04%)

Republican Candidates 7,038 votes (55.57%)
Democrat Candidates 5,621 votes (44.39%)
Others 5 votes (0.04%)

2010 special election

Steve Cunningham (R) 616 votes (65.88%) (+10.31%)
Arthur G. Gillette, Jr. (D) 319 votes (34.12%) (-10.27%)

Special elections in State Senate District 16 on February 16 and State Assembly Coos Second District on March 9.


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on January 24, 2010, 06:45:24 am
California Assembly District 72

2008

Michael D. Mike Duvall (R) 79,066 votes (54.8%)
John MacMurray (D) 65,216 votes (45.2%)

2010 special

Chris Norby (R) 21,406 votes (62.7%) (+7.9%)
John MacMurray (D) 10,622 votes (31.1%) (-14.1%)
Jane Rands (G) 2,100 votes (6.2%) (+6.2%)

New Hampshire State Assembly Rockingham Eighth District

2008
7 persons are elected (yes, I know, it is awkward)

Norman L. Major (R) 6,218 votes (12.22%)
Roger G. Wells (R) 5,594 votes (10.99%)
David A. Welsh (R) 5,550 votes (10.91%)
Don Van Patten (R) 5,281 votes (10.38%)
John W. Flanders, Sr. (R) 5,041 votes (9.91%)
John B. Sedensky (R) 5,037 votes (9.90%)
Melissa L.B. Lyons (D) 4,910 votes (9.65%)

Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 4,898 votes (9.63%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 4,432 votes (8.71%)
Joel Saren (D) 3,893 votes (7.65%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

Republican Candidates 37,619 votes (73.93%)
Democrat Candidates 13,235 votes (26.01%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

2010 special election

Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 1,005 votes (77.79%) (+3.86%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 287 votes (22.21%) (-3.80%)


New Hampshire State Assembly Sullivan Second District

2008
3 persons are elected (yes, I know, it is awkward)

Beverly T. Rodeschin (R) 2,608 votes (20.59%)
Anthony Maiola (R) 2,446 votes (19.31%)
Thomas J. Howard (R) 1,984 votes (15.67%)

Arthur G. Jillette, Jr. (D) 1,949 votes (15.39%)
John? Bell (D) 1,888 votes (14.91%)
Peter Franklin (D) 1,784 votes (14.09%)
Others 5 votes (0.04%)

Republican Candidates 7,038 votes (55.57%)
Democrat Candidates 5,621 votes (44.39%)
Others 5 votes (0.04%)

2010 special election

Steve Cunningham (R) 616 votes (65.88%) (+10.31%)
Arthur G. Gillette, Jr. (D) 319 votes (34.12%) (-10.27%)

Special elections in State Senate District 16 on February 16 and State Assembly Coos Second District on March 9.

Thanks for the data.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 24, 2010, 07:16:07 am
I found a great calendar that has all the upcoming special elections on it, so I will only be updating the OP to post results:

http://www.statenet.com/resources/election_calendar.php


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: MaxQue on January 24, 2010, 06:12:27 pm
California Assembly District 72

2008

Michael D. Mike Duvall (R) 79,066 votes (54.8%)
John MacMurray (D) 65,216 votes (45.2%)

2010 special

Chris Norby (R) 21,406 votes (62.7%) (+7.9%)
John MacMurray (D) 10,622 votes (31.1%) (-14.1%)
Jane Rands (G) 2,100 votes (6.2%) (+6.2%)

New Hampshire State Assembly Rockingham Eighth District

2008
7 persons are elected (yes, I know, it is awkward)

Norman L. Major (R) 6,218 votes (12.22%)
Roger G. Wells (R) 5,594 votes (10.99%)
David A. Welsh (R) 5,550 votes (10.91%)
Don Van Patten (R) 5,281 votes (10.38%)
John W. Flanders, Sr. (R) 5,041 votes (9.91%)
John B. Sedensky (R) 5,037 votes (9.90%)
Melissa L.B. Lyons (D) 4,910 votes (9.65%)

Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 4,898 votes (9.63%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 4,432 votes (8.71%)
Joel Saren (D) 3,893 votes (7.65%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

Republican Candidates 37,619 votes (73.93%)
Democrat Candidates 13,235 votes (26.01%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

2010 special election

Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 1,005 votes (77.79%) (+3.86%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 287 votes (22.21%) (-3.80%)


New Hampshire State Assembly Sullivan Second District

2008
3 persons are elected (yes, I know, it is awkward)

Beverly T. Rodeschin (R) 2,608 votes (20.59%)
Anthony Maiola (R) 2,446 votes (19.31%)
Thomas J. Howard (R) 1,984 votes (15.67%)

Arthur G. Jillette, Jr. (D) 1,949 votes (15.39%)
John? Bell (D) 1,888 votes (14.91%)
Peter Franklin (D) 1,784 votes (14.09%)
Others 5 votes (0.04%)

Republican Candidates 7,038 votes (55.57%)
Democrat Candidates 5,621 votes (44.39%)
Others 5 votes (0.04%)

2010 special election

Steve Cunningham (R) 616 votes (65.88%) (+10.31%)
Arthur G. Gillette, Jr. (D) 319 votes (34.12%) (-10.27%)


Tennessee House District 83

2008

Brian Kelsey (R) 20,592 votes (100%)

2010 special

Mark White (R) 3,236 votes (67.44%)
Guthrie Castle (D) 1,452 votes (30.26%)
John Andreuccetti (I) 110 votes (2.29%)


Virginia Senate District 8

2007

Kenneth W. "Ken" Stolle (R) 13,137 votes (95.59%)
Write-in 606 votes (4.40%)

2010 special

Jeff L. McWaters (R) 8,052 votes (78.58%)
William W. "Bill" Fleming (D) 2,185 votes (21.32%)
Write-In 9 votes (0.08%)


Virginia Senate District 37

2007

Kenneth T. Cuccinelli II (R) 18,602 votes (50.02%)
Janet S. Oleszek (D) 18,510 votes (49.77%)
Write-in 73 votes (0.19%)

2010 special

Dave W. Marsden (D) 11,954 votes (50.64%) (+0.87%)
Steve M. Hunt (R) 11,627 votes (49.26%) (-0.76%)
 Write-in 21 votes (0.08%) (-0.11%)


Georgia House District 122 on January 5

2008

Hardie Davis (D) 15,060 votes (99.43%)
Write-in 87 votes (0.57%)

2010 special

Earnest J. Smith (D), no election, was the only candidate.

Georgia Senate District 22 was on the same day, but no candidate reached 50% so, there will be a runoff on February 2 between two Democrat candidates. There was 3 Democrats and 1 Libertarian in the general election. Complete results once the runoff is done.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: MaxQue on January 24, 2010, 07:30:18 pm
Minnesota Senate District 26

Election on Tuesday, Monday 26.

BRTD is covering very well the election, but I will write 2006 result now.

2006

 Dick Day (R) 16,148 votes (54.48%)
 Jeremy Eller (D) 13,450 votes (45.37%)
 Write-in 44 votes (0.15%)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 24, 2010, 11:56:32 pm
Weather's been absolutely miserable lately here btw. I drove through that district last night and the fog was so bad there were points where visibility was about the length of one car ahead (luckily the streets were basically empty anyway.) However forecast for Tuesday is dry, very cold (in the teens), but Minnesotans are used to that. Turnout might not be as hampered as it would've been with the weekend weather.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 24, 2010, 11:58:56 pm
Here's a good writeup: http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2010/01/how_republican_is_minnesota_se.php

and a map: http://www.gis.leg.mn/l2002/pdf/26.pdf


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 26, 2010, 09:25:20 pm
Minnesota 26 results!

Parry 55.42%
Srp 24.1%
Engbrecht 20.48%

OK, that's a very small and heavily Republican precinct. (McCain won it 65-33). But if that pattern holds could be bad news for Engbrecht...he could pull off huge numbers in Faribault though.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 26, 2010, 09:58:43 pm
Well Engbrecht improved but based on what's in I have to call it for Parry. :( He only loses if Owatonna kicks his ass.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Rowan on January 26, 2010, 10:06:23 pm
Srp? His name has no vowels?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 26, 2010, 10:37:29 pm
There's a lot of people with weird Eastern European names in that part of the state. My mom is from a town called New Prague that is fairly close to the district, that should say something (though no one pronounces it like the Czech capital, everyone calls it "New Pray-g" instead of "New Prog")


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: Meeker on January 26, 2010, 11:05:32 pm
Final results

Mike Parry (R): 43.04%
Jason Engbrecht (DFL): 36.50%
Roy Srp (IP): 20.32%

Turnout: 27.24%


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: Nhoj on January 26, 2010, 11:15:05 pm
Final results

Mike Parry (R): 43.04%
Jason Engbrecht (DFL): 36.50%
Roy Srp (IP): 20.32%

Turnout: 27.24%
Isnt that really close to the coleman, franken, barkley results for the district?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 26, 2010, 11:42:19 pm
Final results

Mike Parry (R): 43.04%
Jason Engbrecht (DFL): 36.50%
Roy Srp (IP): 20.32%

Turnout: 27.24%
Isnt that really close to the coleman, franken, barkley results for the district?

Rather eerily:

Coleman 42.64%
Franken 35.80%
Barkley 20.67%

Especially odd as Srp had an obvious geographic base while Barkley's support was mostly evenly spread.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: ajc0918 on January 26, 2010, 11:47:12 pm
Srp? His name has no vowels?

haha strange..


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 27, 2010, 12:18:59 am
Map:

(http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/7873/district26zoomed.png)

Don't ask me what's with that dark red township. It voted for McCain by 16 points.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Alcon on January 27, 2010, 12:59:37 am
What township is it?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 27, 2010, 01:22:16 am
Aurora.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on January 27, 2010, 06:25:52 pm
Quite pixellated.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 28, 2010, 02:57:34 am
Quite pixellated.

I had to use the town map from the site, which looks like that zoomed in as much as it is.

Even though it wasn't an actual gerrymander despite looking like one, that map makes you realize how beneficial to the DFL 26B is. It consists of all of the Rice county portion (everything north of the border between the second and third rows, and then runs along the far western column to the bottom, then wraps around picking up the bottom row. Obama won it by the narrowest of margins, and there's really no other way to draw an Obama House district from the seat. Quite amazing.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on January 28, 2010, 08:52:57 am
It appears that the special election to replace Sen. Scott Brown will be between State Rep. Lida Harkins (D-Needham) and Rep. Richard Ross (R-Wrentham). The date of the election will be set after Brown files his intention to resign his seat, which he has yet to do.

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/01/28/wrentham_republican_seeks_browns_seat/

One would presume a small lean to Ross here considering the results of the 2004 special election that Brown won and the current political environment, but this seat was not specifically designed for a Republican and Harkins is likely to be a much better candidate than the hapless Angus McQuilken.

Republicans will hold only 4 of 40 State Senate seats once Brown goes to Washington. A loss by Republicans here, combined with a potential loss of State Sen. Tisei's seat in November (he is not seeking re-election, and is instead running for Lt. Governor) and State Sen. Hedlund's seat (if he runs for U.S. House) would be just depressing in terms of having two-party government in this state.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 02, 2010, 08:35:56 pm
Hey, there was one tonight. Continuing Kentucky's trend of bizarre special election results, a Democrat picked up the House seat of a Republican who won a special Senate election a month or two back.

http://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/exeres/CBFBFF75-CCC3-40E5-A221-0884DFEEB300.htm

Terry Mills (D) - 3,001 (54%)
Leo Johnson (R) - 2,518 (46%)



Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: Meeker on February 02, 2010, 08:38:57 pm
Obama's on the comeback trail!


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 02, 2010, 08:47:35 pm
Also three House districts in Missouri, one Republican and two Democratic. Only one was contested by both parties, and the Democrat held the seat by a 2-1 margin.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on February 03, 2010, 12:57:22 pm
Hey, there was one tonight. Continuing Kentucky's trend of bizarre special election results, a Democrat picked up the House seat of a Republican who won a special Senate election a month or two back.

http://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/exeres/CBFBFF75-CCC3-40E5-A221-0884DFEEB300.htm

Terry Mills (D) - 3,001 (54%)
Leo Johnson (R) - 2,518 (46%)



I wonder if Terry Mills is the former Kentucky Wildcat basketball star with the same name?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 03, 2010, 07:04:27 pm
Hey, there was one tonight. Continuing Kentucky's trend of bizarre special election results, a Democrat picked up the House seat of a Republican who won a special Senate election a month or two back.

http://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/exeres/CBFBFF75-CCC3-40E5-A221-0884DFEEB300.htm

Terry Mills (D) - 3,001 (54%)
Leo Johnson (R) - 2,518 (46%)



I wonder if Terry Mills is the former Kentucky Wildcat basketball star with the same name?

The two articles about the result that I found describe him as a 59-year-old retired social security administration employee.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on February 03, 2010, 10:36:48 pm
Hey, there was one tonight. Continuing Kentucky's trend of bizarre special election results, a Democrat picked up the House seat of a Republican who won a special Senate election a month or two back.

http://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/exeres/CBFBFF75-CCC3-40E5-A221-0884DFEEB300.htm

Terry Mills (D) - 3,001 (54%)
Leo Johnson (R) - 2,518 (46%)



I wonder if Terry Mills is the former Kentucky Wildcat basketball star with the same name?

The two articles about the result that I found describe him as a 59-year-old retired social security administration employee.
That would be the Terry Mills who played for Adolph Rupp.  I graduated in 1970, two years ahead of him, so it all fits together.  Gee, I always thought he was a Republican.  I wonder when he went south?

Well, that would explain his winning the seat.  Any former Wildcat basketball player running for office in the state is bound to have an edge.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on February 03, 2010, 10:41:50 pm
That's some crazy geographic polarization, Republican wins one county with over 83% and almost 90% in another, but the Democrat wins due to getting over 88% in the largest county! Wow!


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Verily on February 03, 2010, 10:50:01 pm
That's some crazy geographic polarization, Republican wins one county with over 83% and almost 90% in another, but the Democrat wins due to getting over 88% in the largest county! Wow!

The Republican even outperformed McCain in Casey County (78.55% McCain), but the Democrat outperformed Obama absurdly in Marion County (50.45% McCain, ~88% for the Democrat here). Pulaski County was also >75% McCain, but only a tiny sliver of it is in the district.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on February 03, 2010, 10:59:33 pm
If a Negro can get 47% in Marion county, any local white Democrat should have a cakewalk.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 04, 2010, 07:43:05 am
Bruce Lunsford got 58% in Marion County. The Obama/McCain numbers aren't a good indicator of Democratic strength in Kentucky.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Torie on February 04, 2010, 12:10:22 pm
Hey, there was one tonight. Continuing Kentucky's trend of bizarre special election results, a Democrat picked up the House seat of a Republican who won a special Senate election a month or two back.

http://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/exeres/CBFBFF75-CCC3-40E5-A221-0884DFEEB300.htm

Terry Mills (D) - 3,001 (54%)
Leo Johnson (R) - 2,518 (46%)



Are the legislative districts in KY a Dem gerrymander? It seems a bit too convenient that in this polarized district, there is this nice little built in Dem edge in a zone with very predictable voting patterns.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on February 04, 2010, 12:22:48 pm
The old incumbent was a Republican remember.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 04, 2010, 06:44:25 pm
The legislature was split for redistricting, so the map might be a Dem gerrymander or a bipartisan gerrymander, depending on whether each house of the legislature draws their own maps.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on February 04, 2010, 07:17:13 pm
If a Negro can get 47% in Marion county, any local white Democrat should have a cakewalk.

Marion actually swung to Obama, despite being a 89% white rural county - he beat Kerry by 1 percentage point, or around 200 raw votes.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 08, 2010, 07:39:34 pm
Karen Carter won a 2-D runoff in a special state senate election in Louisiana Saturday. Nothing exciting there.

Four New York Assembly seats are up tomorrow, districts 3, 15, 24, and 89. Here's a nice rundown of the seats: (http://www.silive.com/newsflash/index.ssf?/base/national-105/1265582492159050.xml&storylist=simetro)

Quote
- The 3rd Assembly District seat covering part of Suffolk County on Long Island is open because Patricia Eddington, in office since 2001, was elected to be the Brookhaven town clerk in November. For her seat, Democrat Lauren Thoden, who worked on Eddington's staff, faces Republican Dean Murray, who owns a Long Island advertising agency. Murray also has the Conservative Party line, while Thoden also has the Independence Party and Working Families Party lines.

- In the 15th Assembly District that covers part of Long Island's Nassau County, Republican Rob Walker left the seat he held since 2005 to become chief deputy Nassau County executive. Republicans have named attorney Michael Montesano and Democrats have endorsed Matthew T. Meng, who owns and operates a chain of specialty auto repair shops. Montesano also has the Independence and Conservative parties endorsements.

- In the 24th Assembly District covering part of Queens, Democrat Mark Weprin vacated the seat he held since 1994 to join the New York City Council. Vying for the seat is Weprin's brother, David, who left the city council to run for the Assembly, and Republican Bob Friedrich, a business owner and president of his co-op. David Weprin is also endorsed by the Independence and Working Families parities; while Friedrich also has the Conservative Party endorsement.

- In the 89th Assembly District in Westchester County, Assemblyman Adam Bradley is leaving the seat he held since 2003 to serve as mayor of White Plains. Democrat Peter Harckham seeks to succeed Bradley. Harckham is a county legislator and president of Harckham Media Group, LLC, a strategic partnership of advertising, communications and production professionals. Republicans picked Robert J. Castelli, a professor at John Jay College in Manhattan, former member of the state police and chairman of the Criminal Justice Department at Iona College. Harckham is also endorsed by the Working Families Party, while Castelli is also endorsed by the Independence and Conservative parties.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: xavier110 on February 08, 2010, 07:46:20 pm
I predict whoever has the Independence line to prevail.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Verily on February 08, 2010, 08:14:19 pm
I predict whoever has the Independence line to prevail.

True for the first three, not true for the last. The 89th is solidly Democratic, around 60% for Obama; the Independence line makes no difference for the Republicans.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on February 08, 2010, 08:42:07 pm
All four look like holds.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 09, 2010, 09:38:43 pm
Republicans picked up the 3rd and 89th, held the 15th, and Democrats held the 24th. (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_county/NY_Page_0209.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

Results:

3rd
Dean Murray (R/Cons) - 4,186 (51%)
Lauren Thoden (D/Ind/WF) - 4,000 (49%)

15th (97% in)
Michael Montesanto (R/Cons/Ind) - 3,719 (71%)
Matthew Meng (D/WF) - 1,497 (29%)

24th (98% in)
David Weprin (D/Ind/WF) - 4,166 (63%)
Bob Friedrich (R/Cons) - 2,432 (37%)

89th (98% in)
Robert Castelli (R/Cons/Ind) - 6,732 (55%)
Peter Harckham (D/WF) - 5,430 (45%)

Edit: Also, there will be another special, as the State Senate just voted to expel Monserrate. (http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/story?section=news/politics&id=7266399)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 09, 2010, 09:57:41 pm
Ridiculously-small turnout in the Queens district. 23% of precincts in and it's 57-43 for the Dem. Just over 1,100 votes.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 09, 2010, 10:15:11 pm
15th wasn't even close, 74-26 for the Republican.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Rowan on February 09, 2010, 10:36:07 pm
All four look like holds.

LOL


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on February 09, 2010, 11:03:27 pm
Ridiculously-small turnout in the Queens district. 23% of precincts in and it's 57-43 for the Dem. Just over 1,100 votes.

Everyone knew Weprin would win and decided not to show up?

The result in the 3rd is very surprising to me, just FYI - go look up the history on that seat since the mid-1990s.  Not to mention that the Republican has been associated with those who deal in certain "tea" activities - makes it even more surprising considering the district.

Actually, the win in the 89th is equally as surprising, for the same reasons.  Dems have held that seat for 17 years and it's considered Dem-leaning.  Also, the Republican had no money (Dem raised three times as much money), no website, no nothing. 

But this is merely continuing a lot of the trends that I was noting in 2009 NY results, so carry on.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Dan the Roman on February 09, 2010, 11:23:03 pm
Bye Bye Tim Bishop?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on February 09, 2010, 11:33:19 pm
Bye Bye Tim Bishop?

Possibly.  John Hall would need to watch out too if these results were to translate.

More importantly, however, if the results do translate to the 2010 midterms, Dems would probably be under severe pressure to maintain control of the State Senate.

Anyway, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here - these are only special elections.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Holmes on February 10, 2010, 12:57:45 am
fwiw:

ALBANY — The State Senate on Tuesday expelled a senator convicted of domestic assault, the first time in nearly a century that the Legislature has forced a member from office.

The Senate voted 53-to-8 to immediately oust the senator, Hiram Monserrate, a Queens Democrat convicted last fall of a misdemeanor for dragging his companion down the hallway of his apartment building.  (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/10/nyregion/10hiram.html)

Yay. :)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Frodo on February 10, 2010, 01:33:06 am
fwiw:

ALBANY — The State Senate on Tuesday expelled a senator convicted of domestic assault, the first time in nearly a century that the Legislature has forced a member from office.

The Senate voted 53-to-8 to immediately oust the senator, Hiram Monserrate, a Queens Democrat convicted last fall of a misdemeanor for dragging his companion down the hallway of his apartment building.  (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/10/nyregion/10hiram.html)

Yay. :)

New York has nothing on Illinois.....  :P


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: cinyc on February 10, 2010, 02:26:32 am
Bye Bye Tim Bishop?

Possibly.  John Hall would need to watch out too if these results were to translate.

More importantly, however, if the results do translate to the 2010 midterms, Dems would probably be under severe pressure to maintain control of the State Senate.

Anyway, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here - these are only special elections.

The 89th AD special election and recent Westchester County Exec results really don't bode well for John Hall.  NY-19 is a traditionally Republican district, despite voting for Obama in the last election.  Hall's a two-termer who could easily lose in an election that doesn't favor Democrats (it needn't even be a really strong wave, if you ask me).  It should be on everyone's watch list, even though the best Republican candidate for the district, Assemblyman Greg Ball, decided to run for State Senate instead of NY-19.

Some of the 89th is in NY-18, but the northern parts are in NY-19.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 10, 2010, 05:54:01 am
The result in the 3rd is very surprising to me, just FYI - go look up the history on that seat since the mid-1990s.

Ah, so its that district. You might want to stretch that back a little... say, to the early 70s.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 10, 2010, 08:13:18 am
Why don't you just tell us rather than being coy about it? It's not like historical data on a state legislative seat is that easy to come by.

On a purely numbers level, the Westchester result is worse -- it's a 60+% Obama district that the Republican won by 10%, while the 3rd is more marginal (my best guess is about 55% Obama, and the result last night was 51-49).


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on February 10, 2010, 08:21:48 am
I'm going to have to say that I'm not familiar with what's happened in the 3rd AD before about 1990 myself, so please tell...


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: MArepublican on February 10, 2010, 08:30:55 am
Nan Hayworth seems like a great canidate to take out John Hall unlike Greg Ball she seems to be moderate which is what the district needs. She looks like a perfect model of Sue Kelly.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: We Have A Pope on February 10, 2010, 10:01:55 am
I think Bishop is likely in more trouble than Hall should these trends impact the 2010 house races.  Hall comes across (from what I know) as a far stronger candidate (or at least a better campaigner).  That said, I don't think either will lose.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Verily on February 10, 2010, 10:21:44 am
Bye Bye Tim Bishop?

Possibly.  John Hall would need to watch out too if these results were to translate.

More importantly, however, if the results do translate to the 2010 midterms, Dems would probably be under severe pressure to maintain control of the State Senate.

Anyway, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here - these are only special elections.

The 89th AD special election and recent Westchester County Exec results really don't bode well for John Hall.  NY-19 is a traditionally Republican district, despite voting for Obama in the last election.  Hall's a two-termer who could easily lose in an election that doesn't favor Democrats (it needn't even be a really strong wave, if you ask me).  It should be on everyone's watch list, even though the best Republican candidate for the district, Assemblyman Greg Ball, decided to run for State Senate instead of NY-19.

Some of the 89th is in NY-18, but the northern parts are in NY-19.

The northern parts are really Democratic, though (New Castle Town/Chappaqua and environs). The southern parts are where the Republicans are (except in White Plains, of course). Without the special election results, it's hard to say, but I imagine most of the swing happened in Nita Lowey's district, not Hall's.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on February 10, 2010, 11:18:06 am
The result in the 3rd is very surprising to me, just FYI - go look up the history on that seat since the mid-1990s.  Not to mention that the Republican has been associated with those who deal in certain "tea" activities - makes it even more surprising considering the district.

Tea...bagging hookers?  That's not a disqualifier anymore.

I'd like to see a poll on the public perception of the "tea party movement." I presume that those of us in the know about politics have a much more negative opinion than the nation as a whole.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on February 10, 2010, 06:22:31 pm
The result in the 3rd is very surprising to me, just FYI - go look up the history on that seat since the mid-1990s.  Not to mention that the Republican has been associated with those who deal in certain "tea" activities - makes it even more surprising considering the district.

Tea...bagging hookers?  That's not a disqualifier anymore.

I'd like to see a poll on the public perception of the "tea party movement." I presume that those of us in the know about politics have a much more negative opinion than the nation as a whole.

You're assuming that I reflect the opinion of "those in the know" regarding said movement, just FYI.  I might have just been posting that to taunt for all that you know... :P


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 11, 2010, 02:06:39 am
I'm going to have to say that I'm not familiar with what's happened in the 3rd AD before about 1990 myself, so please tell...

If Sam Spade isn't sure what's going on, then it's time to tell.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: cinyc on February 11, 2010, 03:07:57 am
The northern parts are really Democratic, though (New Castle Town/Chappaqua and environs). The southern parts are where the Republicans are (except in White Plains, of course). Without the special election results, it's hard to say, but I imagine most of the swing happened in Nita Lowey's district, not Hall's.

Not really.  The only part of AD-89 that's overwhelmingly Democratic is White Plains, which is in NY-18.  You might be right about a swing there, but only because the prior Assemblyman stepped down to become mayor of White Plains, while the Democratic candidate in the special election was from Katonah, in NY-19.  Note that the most urban parts of White Plains (read: the most minority and Democratic) appear not to be in AD-89 (http://assembly.state.ny.us/mem/?ad=089&sh=map), though.

Harrison in NY-18 is the most Republican part of AD-89.  The town went to the Republican for County Exec by a 2-1 margin.  (The Republican won that race roughly 57-43 (http://www.westchestergov.com/pdfs/BOE_2009GeneralCanvass091103.pdf).)

New Castle Town/Chappaqua is actually in NY-18, not Hall's district.  So is North Castle, on the Connecticut border.  New Castle is fairly marginal to slightly Democratic - it went about 53-47 to the Republican in the county exec race.   North Castle went just slightly less to that Republican than Harrison, and thus has a strong Republican tilt.

The NY-19 towns/villages in AD-89 are Mount Kisco, Bedford, Pound Ridge and Lewisboro.   Mount Kisco leans Democratic compared the rest of the county - the Republican County Exec candidate barely won it 51-49.  But Bedford went about 56-44 to the Republican in the County Exec race, while both Lewisboro and Pound Ridge went about 58-42 to the Republican.  Except for Mount Kisco, the NY-19 towns are hardly Democrat strongholds - they're pretty much in line with the rest of the county, if the County Exec race is any indication.  Outside of the train station hamlets, the three towns are largely horse country full of minimum 4-acre zoned lots.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on February 12, 2010, 02:12:27 pm
Anybody seen a newer alignment than this?http://www.ncsl.org/default.aspx?tabid=19488 (ftp://http://www.ncsl.org/default.aspx?tabid=19488)

2010 Partisan Composition of State Legislatures                                       
                                       
State   Total   Dem   Rep   Indep   Vacant   Un-      Total   Dem   Rep   Indep   Vacant   Un-
   Seats         Other      Decided      Seats         Other      decided
Alabama   35   21   14   0   0   0      105   60   44   0   1   0
Alaska   20   10   10   0   0   0      40   18   22   0   0   0
Arizona   30   12   18   0   0   0      60   25   35   0   0   0
Arkansas   35   27   8   0   0   0      100   71   28   1   0   0
California   40   25   14   0   1   0      80   49   29   1   1   0
Colorado   35   21   14   0   0   0      65   37   27   1   0   0
Connecticut   36   24   12   0   0   0      151   114   36   0   1   0
Delaware   21   15   6   0   0   0      41   24   17   0   0   0
Florida   40   14   26   0   0   0      120   43   76   0   1   0
Georgia   56   21   34   0   1   0      180   74   105   0   1   0
Hawaii   25   23   2   0   0   0      51   45   6   0   0   0
Idaho   35    7   28   0   0   0      70   18   52   0   0   0
Illinois   59   37   22   0   0   0      118   70   48   0   0   0
Indiana   50   17   33   0   0   0      100   52   48   0   0   0
Iowa   50   32   18   0   0   0      100   56   44   0   0   0
Kansas   40   9   31   0   0   0      125   49   76   0   0   0
Kentucky   38   17   20   1   0   0      100   64   35   0   1   0
Louisiana   39   23   16   0   0   0      105   52   50   3   0   0
Maine   35   20   15   0   0   0      151   95   55   1   0   0
Maryland   47   33   14   0   0   0      141   104   36   0   1   0
Massachusetts   40   34   5   0   1   0      160   144   16   0   0   0
Michigan   38   16   22   0   0   0      110   66   43   0   1   0
Minnesota   67   46   20   0   1   0      134   87   47   0   0   0
Mississippi   52   26   25   0   1   0      122   74   48   0   0   0
Missouri   34   11   23   0   0   0      163   73   89   0   1   0
Montana   50   23   27   0   0   0      100   50   50   0   0   0
Nebraska   49   *   *   49   *   *      *   *   *   *   *   *
Nevada   21   12   8   0   1   0      42   28   14   0   0   0
New Hampshire   24   14   9   0   1   0      400   222   175   0   3   0
New Jersey   40   23   17   0   0   0      80   47   33   0   0   0
New Mexico   42   27   15   0   0   0      70   45   25   0   0   0
New York   62   31   30   0   1   0      150   107   43   0   0   0
North Carolina   50   30   20   0   0   0      120   68   52   0   0   0
North Dakota   47   21   26   0   0   0      94   36   58   0   0   0
Ohio   33   12   21   0   0   0      99   53   46   0   0   0
Oklahoma   48   22   26   0   0   0      101   40   61   0   0   0
Oregon   30   18   12   0   0   0      60   36   24   0   0   0
Pennsylvania   50   20   30   0   0   0      203   103   97   0   3   0
Rhode Island   38   33   4   1   0   0      75   69   6   0   0   0
South Carolina   46   19   27   0   0   0      124   51   73   0   0   0
South Dakota   35   14   21   0   0   0      70   24   46   0   0   0
Tennessee   33   14   19   0   0   0      99   47   50   1   1   0
Texas   31   12   19   0   0   0      150   73   77   0   0   0
Utah   29   8   21   0   0   0      75   22   53   0   0   0
Vermont   30   22   7   1   0   0      150   95   48   7   0   0
Virginia   40   22   18   0   0   0      100   39   59   2   0   0
Washington   49   31   18   0   0   0      98   62   36   0   0   0
West Virginia   34   26   8   0   0   0      100   71   29   0   0   0
Wisconsin   33   18   15   0   0   0      99   52   46   1   0   0
Wyoming   30   7   23   0   0   0      60   19   41   0   0   0
TOTALS:   1971   1020   891   52   8   0      5411   3023   2354   19   15   0
Source: National Conference of State Legislatures                                       


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: Brittain33 on February 12, 2010, 03:08:54 pm
That chart includes Dave Marsden's win in Virginia on Jan. 12, so it's probably as good as it gets.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Verily on February 12, 2010, 03:22:15 pm
The northern parts are really Democratic, though (New Castle Town/Chappaqua and environs). The southern parts are where the Republicans are (except in White Plains, of course). Without the special election results, it's hard to say, but I imagine most of the swing happened in Nita Lowey's district, not Hall's.

Not really.  The only part of AD-89 that's overwhelmingly Democratic is White Plains, which is in NY-18.  You might be right about a swing there, but only because the prior Assemblyman stepped down to become mayor of White Plains, while the Democratic candidate in the special election was from Katonah, in NY-19.  Note that the most urban parts of White Plains (read: the most minority and Democratic) appear not to be in AD-89 (http://assembly.state.ny.us/mem/?ad=089&sh=map), though.

Harrison in NY-18 is the most Republican part of AD-89.  The town went to the Republican for County Exec by a 2-1 margin.  (The Republican won that race roughly 57-43 (http://www.westchestergov.com/pdfs/BOE_2009GeneralCanvass091103.pdf).)

New Castle Town/Chappaqua is actually in NY-18, not Hall's district.  So is North Castle, on the Connecticut border.  New Castle is fairly marginal to slightly Democratic - it went about 53-47 to the Republican in the county exec race.   North Castle went just slightly less to that Republican than Harrison, and thus has a strong Republican tilt.

The NY-19 towns/villages in AD-89 are Mount Kisco, Bedford, Pound Ridge and Lewisboro.   Mount Kisco leans Democratic compared the rest of the county - the Republican County Exec candidate barely won it 51-49.  But Bedford went about 56-44 to the Republican in the County Exec race, while both Lewisboro and Pound Ridge went about 58-42 to the Republican.  Except for Mount Kisco, the NY-19 towns are hardly Democrat strongholds - they're pretty much in line with the rest of the county, if the County Exec race is any indication.  Outside of the train station hamlets, the three towns are largely horse country full of minimum 4-acre zoned lots.

New Castle must have had a massive swing from the Presidential election in the county exec race, then--it went for Obama 70-29. Mt Kisco was only 64-34 Obama.

No idea on the rest, really. I was just going by the 2008 numbers, not the 2009 ones.

The 2008 results by town:

New Castle: 70-29 Obama
White Plains: 69-30 Obama (including the more Democratic parts at the north and west not in the district; without them, it's more like 61-38)
Mt Kisco: 64-34 Obama
Bedford: 61-38 Obama
Pound Ridge: 61-38 Obama
Lewisboro: 59-40 Obama
North Castle: 53-46 Obama
Harrison: 50-49 McCain

In 2008, at least, the Democrats were in the north. The two southern towns (other than White Plains) were the two most Republican.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: cinyc on February 12, 2010, 05:30:57 pm
New Castle must have had a massive swing from the Presidential election in the county exec race, then--it went for Obama 70-29. Mt Kisco was only 64-34 Obama.

No idea on the rest, really. I was just going by the 2008 numbers, not the 2009 ones.

The 2008 results by town:

New Castle: 70-29 Obama
White Plains: 69-30 Obama (including the more Democratic parts at the north and west not in the district; without them, it's more like 61-38)
Mt Kisco: 64-34 Obama
Bedford: 61-38 Obama
Pound Ridge: 61-38 Obama
Lewisboro: 59-40 Obama
North Castle: 53-46 Obama
Harrison: 50-49 McCain

In 2008, at least, the Democrats were in the north. The two southern towns (other than White Plains) were the two most Republican.


Obama won the county 63-36.  So just like in the 2009 County Exec race, the four NY-19 towns were about average for the county, with Mount Kisco slightly more Democratic and Lewisboro slightly more Republican.  Harrison and North Castle in NY-18 are Republican strongholds relative to the rest of the county.  Of the other two NY-18 municipalities, White Plains in NY-18 leans more Democratic than the county (though your AD-89 guestimate suggests the AD-89 part is about average); New Castle went more strongly Democratic in the Presidential race than in the County Exec race.  Perhaps that's because the Republican in the county exec race was from neighboring Mount Pleasant.

I don't know where the NY-19 towns rank relative to the rest of NY-19 (probably more Democratic than average), but a Republican winning the district can't bode well for John Hall - he's in for a fight.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: timmer123 on February 12, 2010, 06:57:04 pm
This is interesting to follow.

Maryland does not have special elections for legislative vacancies.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 12, 2010, 07:47:21 pm
The chart is as close as you'll get given how fluid the composition of the legislatures is. It's missing the Virginia House vacancy, but otherwise it looks pretty complete.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Bono on February 13, 2010, 03:07:14 pm
Anybody seen a newer alignment than this?http://www.ncsl.org/default.aspx?tabid=19488 (ftp://http://www.ncsl.org/default.aspx?tabid=19488)

~snip~                  


http://www.statenet.com/resources/partisan_lineup.php

There are a few inaccuracies, mostly having to do with legislators changing parties; if you have doubts, check Wikipedia, they're usually very up to date on most legs.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 16, 2010, 08:24:29 am
A few up today:

Alabama HD-40 - Democratic seat, the incumbent died.
Mississippi SD-36 - Democratic seat where the incumbent was appointed to the bench by Haley Barbour. There are seven candidates running, so this one will probably end up in a runoff.
New Hampshire SD-16 - Republican seat, the incumbent was elected mayor of Manchester.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on February 16, 2010, 01:02:03 pm
That Alabama seat looks like a GOP pickup, Mississippi one is probably a hold (wow, there is seriously a majority black county in Mississippi called Jefferson Davis County?), and the NH one could go either way, maybe GOP leaning (appears to have voted for Obama but he did arguably overrun in NH, was basically a dead heat in 2004.)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on February 16, 2010, 01:39:41 pm
So if the Republican scored an upset in MS SD-36 today, it would tie that chamber?  I understand it is most unlikely to happen.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 16, 2010, 01:47:43 pm
(wow, there is seriously a majority black county in Mississippi called Jefferson Davis County?)

Lee County, Arkansas and Lee County, South Carolina are also majority black.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 16, 2010, 06:51:20 pm
So if the Republican scored an upset in MS SD-36 today, it would tie that chamber?  I understand it is most unlikely to happen.

Yes, the split is currently 26-25 with one vacancy. However, it being a majority-black seat (just drew it in the redistricting app - 65% black), the only way a Republican could win is if he/she is black (since party labels aren't on the ballot). I have no idea who any of the candidates are.

That Alabama seat looks like a GOP pickup, Mississippi one is probably a hold (wow, there is seriously a majority black county in Mississippi called Jefferson Davis County?), and the NH one could go either way, maybe GOP leaning (appears to have voted for Obama but he did arguably overrun in NH, was basically a dead heat in 2004.)

I wouldn't count the Dems out in Alabama; they've managed to hold on to several legislative seats over the past year.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: xavier110 on February 16, 2010, 08:14:31 pm
NH SD-16 is a GOP hold.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 16, 2010, 09:17:14 pm
Yeah, looks like a stomping.

http://www.wmur.com/politics/22585344/detail.html

*  Candia: Boutin 355, Goley 125
* Dunbarton: Boutin 274, Goley 162
* Bow: Boutin 664, Goley 572
* Hooksett: Boutin 873, Goley 430
* Manchester, Ward 1: Boutin 803, Goley 701
* Manchester, Ward 2: Boutin 455, Goley 423
* Manchester, Ward 12: Boutin 344, Goley 270

Total:

David Boutin (R) - 3,768 (58%)
Jeff Goley (D) - 2,683 (42%)

Can't find any results for the other two elections.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 16, 2010, 09:21:20 pm
Scratch that, the local paper has a twitter feed of the Alabama results:

http://twitter.com/AnnistonStar

7/24 precincts:
K.L. Brown (R) 1,013 59.1%
Ricky Whaley (D) 655 38.2%
Carol Hagan (ind.) 47 2.7%

Edit: 12/24 precincts:
K.L. Brown (R) 2,243 59.6%
Ricky Whaley (D) 1,419 37.7%
Carol Hagan (ind.) 100 2.7%

That'll just leave an eight-seat pickup for the Republicans to win the Alabama House in November. Although really, if they come within a seat or two, I'm sure there will be some party-switchers.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mr.Phips on February 16, 2010, 09:28:36 pm
Just wonderful.  This is what Obama's Presidency is doing to the Democratic party.  This makes a net loss of eleven state legislative seats since Obama's election.  Democrats should take this guy, put steel boots on him and drown him for what he is done to the party.  This is a huge price for Democrats to be paying just to have a symbol sitting in the White House. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on February 16, 2010, 09:32:25 pm
I was wrong about the composition of that NH seat, I couldn't find a map but the legislative page made it appear to be completely within Manchester. It's actually a lot more Republican than it appeared.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 16, 2010, 10:04:05 pm
Just wonderful.  This is what Obama's Presidency is doing to the Democratic party.  This makes a net loss of eleven state legislative seats since Obama's election.  Democrats should take this guy, put steel boots on him and drown him for what he is done to the party.  This is a huge price for Democrats to be paying just to have a symbol sitting in the White House. 

Obviously, a Republican hold in a state legislative seat is far more important than control of the White House.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 16, 2010, 10:05:37 pm
Just wonderful.  This is what Obama's Presidency is doing to the Democratic party.  This makes a net loss of eleven state legislative seats since Obama's election.  Democrats should take this guy, put steel boots on him and drown him for what he is done to the party.  This is a huge price for Democrats to be paying just to have a symbol sitting in the White House. 

Obviously, a Republican hold in a state legislative seat is far more important than control of the White House.

Don't feed the troll.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on February 16, 2010, 10:09:07 pm
Just wonderful.  This is what Obama's Presidency is doing to the Democratic party.  This makes a net loss of eleven state legislative seats since Obama's election.  Democrats should take this guy, put steel boots on him and drown him for what he is done to the party.  This is a huge price for Democrats to be paying just to have a symbol sitting in the White House. 

Obviously, a Republican hold in a state legislative seat is far more important than control of the White House.

Obviously it's also Obama's fault that when some Dixiecrat dinosaur in a >65% for McCain district dies the Democrats can't hold it.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 17, 2010, 06:42:13 pm
Finally got partial results for the Mississippi Senate race. The top two finishers were Albert Butler and Jimmy Strong (the latter being the one Republican in the race, although the same no-party-on-ballot caveat applies). I'm willing to bet that Butler soaks up almost all the votes from the defeated candidates in the runoff.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on February 17, 2010, 10:20:54 pm
When is the runoff to occur?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 18, 2010, 08:05:16 am
March 9.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mr.Phips on February 19, 2010, 04:33:13 am
Just wonderful.  This is what Obama's Presidency is doing to the Democratic party.  This makes a net loss of eleven state legislative seats since Obama's election.  Democrats should take this guy, put steel boots on him and drown him for what he is done to the party.  This is a huge price for Democrats to be paying just to have a symbol sitting in the White House. 

Obviously, a Republican hold in a state legislative seat is far more important than control of the White House.

Holding several and likely holding Congress is far more important than control of the White House.  The White House is the weakest branch of government.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 22, 2010, 10:31:18 pm
Two coming up tomorrow, neither of which are likely to be interesting.

- Florida HD-58 is a Dem seat where the incumbent was appointed to the DoD; he was unopposed in 2008 and got 69% in 2006, so it should be safe Dem. Also, the Dem primary for the special got nearly four times as many votes as the Republican one.
- Georgia HD-19 is a Rep seat, three Reps are running, no Dems. Yawn.

In Virginia HD-41 (occurring next week), pre-election campaign finance reports were filed today. Dem nominee Eileen Filler-Corn has raised three times the money that Rep nominee Kerry Bolognese has ($258k to $84k). Fundraising, of course, is somewhat disingenous a name, as most of the money in House of Delegates races comes from the party committees. Still, the fact that Democrats are going all in suggests they're more serious about holding the seat.

Granted, when the Republicans have a 61-38 majority in the House, they can afford to write off a seat.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 23, 2010, 10:30:34 pm
And Florida HD-58 is, unsurprisingly, a Dem hold. 65-35.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: ajc0918 on February 23, 2010, 10:38:38 pm
And Florida HD-58 is, unsurprisingly, a Dem hold. 65-35.

And being such a strong dem district you would think they would actually be from the district...


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 27, 2010, 11:18:53 am
VA HD-41 update: Since the 22nd, Eileen Filler-Corn has reported another $63k in last-minute donations over $1000 (including donations from her former boss, Sen. Mark Warner, and everyone's favorite ex-DNC chief Terry McAuliffe). Kerry Bolognese? $9k. I think this is a Dem hold at this point, which is not too surprising, since Bolognese was a pretty weak candidate who tried to ride the McDonnell wave last year.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mr.Phips on February 28, 2010, 04:53:50 am
VA HD-41 update: Since the 22nd, Eileen Filler-Corn has reported another $63k in last-minute donations over $1000 (including donations from her former boss, Sen. Mark Warner, and everyone's favorite ex-DNC chief Terry McAuliffe). Kerry Bolognese? $9k. I think this is a Dem hold at this point, which is not too surprising, since Bolognese was a pretty weak candidate who tried to ride the McDonnell wave last year.

Part of me thinks that Democrats will lose this seat since they have done so horribly in other special elections(look at New York and Delaware), but if Bolognese couldnt win with McDonnell winning 55% in the district in 2009, I dont think he can win now. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 02, 2010, 08:28:22 am
VA HD-41 today, as well as CT HD-120, which is a Republican seat in Stratford, but it really can't matter that much if the Democrats win it considering they hold 114 out of 151 seats.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 02, 2010, 08:49:30 pm
HD-41 is a Dem hold, although just barely. Eileen Filler-Corn won by 42 votes, or a 0.4% margin.

Edit: Also, the Republican held the seat in CT.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on March 02, 2010, 08:52:16 pm
HD-41 is a Dem hold, although just barely. Eileen Filler-Corn won by 42 votes, or a 0.4% margin.

Edit: Also, the Republican held the seat in CT.

Recount possible?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 02, 2010, 09:54:24 pm
HD-41 is a Dem hold, although just barely. Eileen Filler-Corn won by 42 votes, or a 0.4% margin.

Edit: Also, the Republican held the seat in CT.

Recount possible?

Electronic voting machines, recounts don't change anything. There have been two House races within 14-15 votes in the past year; both margins only changed by a couple of votes after recounts.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on March 02, 2010, 09:56:20 pm
gotcha


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 10, 2010, 07:49:04 pm
There was a runoff for the Mississippi Senate seat that had the first round back in February, which the Democrat won easily:

Albert Butler – 3,781
Jimmy Strong – 2,496

No party labels on the ballot, but Butler was the Dem, Strong was the Rep.

Also, Republicans held a House seat in New Hampshire. Yawn.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 16, 2010, 05:56:34 pm
Tonight is the special for Hiram Monseratte's seat. He's running as an independent to try and get it back.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Verily on March 16, 2010, 08:54:09 pm
Tonight is the special for Hiram Monseratte's seat. He's running as an independent to try and get it back.

Seriously? I haven't been paying enough attention. Doesn't he know the Senate would just expel him again?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on March 16, 2010, 09:05:48 pm
Oh, I forgot to mention, the new state senator from NJ's 14th District is Tom Goodwin (R), who easily won a special election convention over former Assemblywoman Barbara Wright (R).

He'll face Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein (D) in November.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 16, 2010, 09:25:14 pm
Tonight is the special for Hiram Monseratte's seat. He's running as an independent to try and get it back.

Seriously? I haven't been paying enough attention. Doesn't he know the Senate would just expel him again?

Yeah, he's currently getting his ass handed to him by Jose Peralta. 1/3 of the precincts are in and Peralta is up 60-34. (http://www.ny1.com/1-all-boroughs-news-content/top_stories/115318/queens-candidates-await-returns-in-state-senate-special-election)

There is no limit to his desperate attempts to cling onto his political career, though -- he's apparently considering a run for Peralta's Assembly seat.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 16, 2010, 09:27:42 pm
So the Republican has 6%? LOL.

Who the hell are these 34% of idiots though?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Holmes on March 16, 2010, 09:33:53 pm
Victory.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 16, 2010, 09:52:01 pm
Wow I just found out Monseratte used to be a cop. That's quite scary. And you wonder why many people hate cops.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Verily on March 16, 2010, 11:10:27 pm
So the Republican has 6%? LOL.

Who the hell are these 34% of idiots though?

It's Jackson Heights. 8% (the final result) is a good showing for the Republicans. And presumably the 27% for Monserrate are Puerto Ricans (while the Peralta voters are Dominicans and other Hispanics, with all the Asians, not totally insubstantial in the seat, also supporting him).

Plus, Monserrate apparently tried to make the race about gay marriage (which Peralta supports). Not the greatest strategy in the heartland of the Hispanic gay community in NYC, but it probably won him some social conservative vote from various Hispanic groups.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 17, 2010, 07:06:25 am
Final result:

Jose Peralta (D) - 9,803 (65.4%)
Hiram Monserrate (I) - 4,098 (27.3%)
Robert Beltrani (R) - 1,087 (7.3%)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: Brittain33 on March 17, 2010, 08:14:18 am
Oh, I forgot to mention, the new state senator from NJ's 14th District is Tom Goodwin (R), who easily won a special election convention over former Assemblywoman Barbara Wright (R).

He'll face Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein (D) in November.

This is the first I heard that Bill Baroni had cashed in and left the legislature. That's disappointing.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Lunar on March 17, 2010, 08:16:33 am
I almost canvassed for Peralta yesterday.

I'm very glad Hiram is out.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on March 17, 2010, 08:19:46 am
This is the first I heard that Bill Baroni had cashed in and left the legislature. That's disappointing.

He's the new Deputy Executive Director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.

Disappointing? Yes. Related to his voting for gay marriage? Maybe.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: Brittain33 on March 17, 2010, 09:53:23 am
He's the new Deputy Executive Director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.

Disappointing? Yes. Related to his voting for gay marriage? Maybe.

You think Christie pulled him out of the legislature because he was unwhippable?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 17, 2010, 10:21:51 am
Christie is a horrible fascist.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on March 17, 2010, 12:49:21 pm
He's the new Deputy Executive Director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.

Disappointing? Yes. Related to his voting for gay marriage? Maybe.

You think Christie pulled him out of the legislature because he was unwhippable?

No, because the seat leans Democratic and Greenstein has the slight advantage in November. Baroni in that seat is an asset to the NJ GOP. I think Baroni left to escape a Republican primary campaign where all sorts of uncomfortable questions would come up about why he voted the way he did...

Which is sad, because he had been on track for a promising statewide career. Such is life when you're "one of the good ones."


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on March 19, 2010, 10:14:58 am
Two special elections to be held on Saturday May 8 (uniform spring election date).  Since these are only for the remainder of this year, and the legislature is not in session, and is unlikely to be in session, these are relatively meaningless.  The primaries for the 2011+ terms have already been conducted.

HD 100 (South Dallas, Black 46%, Hispanic 36%, Anglo 16%): To replace Terri Hodge who resigned as part of her plea bargain.  She remained on the Democratic primary ballot where she receive a little over 22% of the vote.  This may draw only one candidate for the special election (the winner of the Democratic primary who is unopposed in November).

SD 22 (Central Texas, southern DFW suburbs, similar to Chet Edward's district, 68% McCain): To replace Kip Averitt who resigned for health reasons.  After Averitt resigned, he was talked into remaining on the primary ballot so that his opponent Darren Yancy would not be elected unopposed, and instead the Republican party could name a replacement nominee.

Averitt won the primary based on 71% support in McLennan County, and 50-50 in the DFW suburbs.  The special election is for the remainder of the term, but might be considered a straw poll for deciding who is nominated by the Republican party.  Yancy has said that he would run in the special election, along with David Sibley, the former senator (until 2002).  Sibley like Averitt, is from Waco.

Since Averitt is withdrawing from his nomination for the 2011-2013 term for health reasons, he may be replaced by the Republican Party.  However, since there are no other nominees, all parties will be able to nominate for the November election (and of course anyone can run in the special election).  Democrats may not want to draw out Republican votes to vote against Edwards, so may pass on this district.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 19, 2010, 05:40:49 pm
So the Republican has 6%? LOL.

Who the hell are these 34% of idiots though?

It's Jackson Heights. 8% (the final result) is a good showing for the Republicans. And presumably the 27% for Monserrate are Puerto Ricans (while the Peralta voters are Dominicans and other Hispanics, with all the Asians, not totally insubstantial in the seat, also supporting him).

Plus, Monserrate apparently tried to make the race about gay marriage (which Peralta supports). Not the greatest strategy in the heartland of the Hispanic gay community in NYC, but it probably won him some social conservative vote from various Hispanic groups.

What kind of place is Jackson Heights? All the ads on Bengali TV are for places in Jackson Heights.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: Rowan on March 19, 2010, 05:46:12 pm
Christie is a horrible fascist.

LOL. What?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Badger on March 22, 2010, 08:02:50 am
So the Republican has 6%? LOL.

Who the hell are these 34% of idiots though?

It's Jackson Heights. 8% (the final result) is a good showing for the Republicans. And presumably the 27% for Monserrate are Puerto Ricans (while the Peralta voters are Dominicans and other Hispanics, with all the Asians, not totally insubstantial in the seat, also supporting him).

Plus, Monserrate apparently tried to make the race about gay marriage (which Peralta supports). Not the greatest strategy in the heartland of the Hispanic gay community in NYC, but it probably won him some social conservative vote from various Hispanic groups.

What kind of place is Jackson Heights? All the ads on Bengali TV are for places in Jackson Heights.

That should tell you all you need to know. FWIW, when I visited my sister in Manhattan she would take us out to JH for what she calls the best Indian lunch in the city (Jackson Diner on 74th). From my brief stroll in the area, that neighborhood had a distinctly more urban feel than some of the more suburbanesqe parts of Queens.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Verily on March 22, 2010, 08:12:52 am
So the Republican has 6%? LOL.

Who the hell are these 34% of idiots though?

It's Jackson Heights. 8% (the final result) is a good showing for the Republicans. And presumably the 27% for Monserrate are Puerto Ricans (while the Peralta voters are Dominicans and other Hispanics, with all the Asians, not totally insubstantial in the seat, also supporting him).

Plus, Monserrate apparently tried to make the race about gay marriage (which Peralta supports). Not the greatest strategy in the heartland of the Hispanic gay community in NYC, but it probably won him some social conservative vote from various Hispanic groups.

What kind of place is Jackson Heights? All the ads on Bengali TV are for places in Jackson Heights.

Mix of Asians and Hispanics. Asians (particularly South Asians) in the west and south, Hispanics (mostly Caribbeans, like in most of NYC) in the north, east and center as the neighborhood blends with Corona to the east. The Asian communities are larger in bordering Rego Park and Elmhurst but substantial in Jackson Heights as well, so it's not a huge surprise that Jackson Heights pops up on Bengali TV.

Very, very diverse and vibrant and has been for quite some time. Not impoverished for the most part, just steady middle class. Very prime location for commuting into Manhattan as there are some express subway stops in the area on multiple lines.

Also contains a substantial gay community near the subway lines, notable for being the center of the Hispanic gay community in NYC (much like Fort Greene is the center of the black gay community--a gay community on the edge of a larger ethnic enclave).


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Lunar on March 29, 2010, 06:03:04 am
Bloomberg in a wig isn't as cool as Rudy in drag, but here it is:

(http://assets.nydailynews.com/img/2010/03/29/alg_mayor-hair.jpg)
(http://assets.nydailynews.com/img/2010/03/28/amd_bloomberg_hair.jpg)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 12, 2010, 07:00:22 am
Has it really been so long since the last special? Well, there are a few tomorrow:

California AD-43 - Democratic incumbent elected to the LA City Council. Three Dems and one R running; likely an easy Dem hold, but it's unclear whether one candidate will win a majority in the first round.

California SD-37 - Republican incumbent appointed to the Riverside County Board of Supervisors; it's fairly Republican, so it shouldn't be too hard to hold. It will probably go to a second round, though, with 6 major-party candidates running.

Florida HD-4 - This one's on the panhandle, so it should be an easy Republican hold, especially since some attorney spent $300k to win the Republican primary.

Also, two primaries in Mass:

Mass Senate (Norfolk, Bristol, Middlesex) - It's SCOTT BROWN's Senate seat! Primary for the Democratic nomination; either physician Peter Smulowitz and State Rep. Lida Harkins will win the chance to face off against Republican State Rep. Richard Ross in May.

Mass Senate (Middlesex, Suffolk, Essex) - Six Democrats are running in this primary, which is going to be the deciding election, as no Republican has filed. Sal DiDomineco, the previous incumbent's Chief of Staff seems to be the favorite here. Shame, I would've gone with Denise Simmons, the black lesbian mayor of Cambridge.

You know, Massachusetts should really step into the 21st century and start numbering their districts.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on April 12, 2010, 08:04:46 am
You know, Massachusetts should really step into the 21st century and start numbering their districts.

I dunno, there's a special charm to living in the Thirty-fourth Middlesex.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 14, 2010, 07:02:17 am
Results from last night:

CA AD-43 (http://www.sos.ca.gov/elect-results/ad43-results.htm):

Mike Gatto (D) - 10,584 (32.3%)
Sunder Ramani (R) - 10,403 (31.8%)

Nayiri Nahabedian (D) - 7,298 (22.3%)
Chahe Keuroghelian (D) - 4,444 (13.6%)

CA SD-37 (http://www.sos.ca.gov/elect-results/sd37-results.htm):

Bill Emmerson (R) - 36,507 (41.6%)
Russ Bogh (R) - 19,247 (21.9%)
Justin Blake (D) - 12,253 (14.0%)
Anna Nevenic (D) - 7,524 (8.6%)
Arthur Bravo Guerrero (D) - 6,283 (7.2%)
Matt Monica (AI) - 3,884 (4.4%)
David W. Peters (R) - 2,036 (2.3%)

FL HD-4 (http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/DetailRpt.Asp?ElectionDate=04/13/2010&Datamode=E&Race=STR&Party=&DIST=004&GRP=):

Matt Gaetz (R) - 10,118 (66.0%)
Jan Fernald (D) - 5,212 (34.0%)

Mass Senate (Norfolk, Bristol, Middlesex) D primary (http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/04/14/2_democrats_advance_in_senate_races/):

Peter Smulowitz - 3,806 (50.9%)
Lida Harkins - 3,666 (49.1%)

Mass Senate (Middlesex, Suffolk, Essex) D primary (http://massachusetts-election-2010.com/2010/04/13/sal-didomenico-wins-middlesex-suffolk-and-essex-senate-seat/#more-959) (no actual numbers):

Sal DiDomenico (D) – 30%
Tim Flaherty (D) -  29%
Denise Simmons (D) – 20%
Mike Albano (D) – 10%
Dennis Benzan (D) – 8%
Dan Hill (D) – 1%

Flaherty is refusing to concede, contending that there were "voting irregularities".


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on April 14, 2010, 02:16:18 pm
Mass Senate (Norfolk, Bristol, Middlesex) D primary (http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/04/14/2_democrats_advance_in_senate_races/):

Peter Smulowitz - 3,806 (50.9%)
Lida Harkins - 3,666 (49.1%)

Like whooooooah.

Yonder toss-up race just became Lean Republican.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on April 19, 2010, 06:30:55 pm
Two special elections to be held on Saturday May 8 (uniform spring election date).  Since these are only for the remainder of this year, and the legislature is not in session, and is unlikely to be in session, these are relatively meaningless.  The primaries for the 2011+ terms have already been conducted.

HD 100 (South Dallas, Black 46%, Hispanic 36%, Anglo 16%): To replace Terri Hodge who resigned as part of her plea bargain.  She remained on the Democratic primary ballot where she receive a little over 22% of the vote.  This may draw only one candidate for the special election (the winner of the Democratic primary who is unopposed in November).

SD 22 (Central Texas, southern DFW suburbs, similar to Chet Edward's district, 68% McCain): To replace Kip Averitt who resigned for health reasons.  After Averitt resigned, he was talked into remaining on the primary ballot so that his opponent Darren Yancy would not be elected unopposed, and instead the Republican party could name a replacement nominee.

Averitt won the primary based on 71% support in McLennan County, and 50-50 in the DFW suburbs.  The special election is for the remainder of the term, but might be considered a straw poll for deciding who is nominated by the Republican party.  Yancy has said that he would run in the special election, along with David Sibley, the former senator (until 2002).  Sibley like Averitt, is from Waco.

Since Averitt is withdrawing from his nomination for the 2011-2013 term for health reasons, he may be replaced by the Republican Party.  However, since there are no other nominees, all parties will be able to nominate for the November election (and of course anyone can run in the special election).  Democrats may not want to draw out Republican votes to vote against Edwards, so may pass on this district.

There was another district that had been added, HD 66 which is in Collin County, due to the resignation of Brian McCall to become chancellor of the Texas State University System (Texas has several independent system governing bodies, Texas State University system is just one of them).  But the loser of the Republican primary runoff, has just withdrawn from the special election, so the Republican primary winner, Van Taylor will become the current representative.

In addition only one candidate filed in HD 100, so that special is also cancelled.

So the only special still on is SD 22.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Kevinstat on April 24, 2010, 03:22:19 pm
SD 22 (Central Texas, southern DFW suburbs, similar to Chet Edward's district, 68% McCain): To replace Kip Averitt who resigned for health reasons.  After Averitt resigned, he was talked into remaining on the primary ballot so that his opponent Darren Yancy would not be elected unopposed, and instead the Republican party could name a replacement nominee.

Averitt won the primary based on 71% support in McLennan County, and 50-50 in the DFW suburbs.  The special election is for the remainder of the term, but might be considered a straw poll for deciding who is nominated by the Republican party.  Yancy has said that he would run in the special election, along with David Sibley, the former senator (until 2002).  Sibley like Averitt, is from Waco.

Since Averitt is withdrawing from his nomination for the 2011-2013 term for health reasons, he may be replaced by the Republican Party.  However, since there are no other nominees, all parties will be able to nominate for the November election (and of course anyone can run in the special election).  Democrats may not want to draw out Republican votes to vote against Edwards, so may pass on this district.

So the only special still on is SD 22.

Who are the candidates in the special election, and what party/parties are they from?  Also, any word on whether the Democrats will take advantage of the provision that allows them to nominate a candidate for the full term even though none filed by the normal deadline or got enough write-in votes in the primary (unless one did)?

Maine doesn't have such a provision, and in both 2002 and 2008 a Democratic caucus of combined municipal committees chose a candidate to replace an unopposed incumbent on the general election ballot.  The replacement candidate so chosen in 2002 barely won "re-"election against a Republican in 2004, became an Independent in 2005, started caucusing with the Republicans, handily defeated the same Democratic challenger in 2006 and 2008 (no Republican has opposed him since he left the Democrats), became a Republican last year and is now their candidate for the State Senate in his district (and will probably win).


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on April 25, 2010, 01:43:12 pm
SD 22 (Central Texas, southern DFW suburbs, similar to Chet Edward's district, 68% McCain): To replace Kip Averitt who resigned for health reasons.  After Averitt resigned, he was talked into remaining on the primary ballot so that his opponent Darren Yancy would not be elected unopposed, and instead the Republican party could name a replacement nominee.

Averitt won the primary based on 71% support in McLennan County, and 50-50 in the DFW suburbs.  The special election is for the remainder of the term, but might be considered a straw poll for deciding who is nominated by the Republican party.  Yancy has said that he would run in the special election, along with David Sibley, the former senator (until 2002).  Sibley like Averitt, is from Waco.

Since Averitt is withdrawing from his nomination for the 2011-2013 term for health reasons, he may be replaced by the Republican Party.  However, since there are no other nominees, all parties will be able to nominate for the November election (and of course anyone can run in the special election).  Democrats may not want to draw out Republican votes to vote against Edwards, so may pass on this district.

So the only special still on is SD 22.

Who are the candidates in the special election, and what party/parties are they from?  Also, any word on whether the Democrats will take advantage of the provision that allows them to nominate a candidate for the full term even though none filed by the normal deadline or got enough write-in votes in the primary (unless one did)?
No write-ins in Texas primaries except for party offices.

Candidates in the special election:

David Sibley(R) is from Waco and the former senator for the district. 

About 1/3 of the district is new since he last ran in 1998 (for a 1999-2003 term).  The district used to wrap around to the west of Fort Worth, and was shifted to include Ellis County, and the more populous northern part of Johnson County.  41% of the district is in the DFW southern suburbs (Ellis, Johnson, Hood); 31% is in McLennan (Waco); 28% in the rest of the district (Coryell, Navarro, Hill, Falls, Bosque, Somervell).

In a special election, Sibley will have an advantage being from Waco, since the Waco newspaper and TV/radio stations will cover the election, and there is a feeling that Waco deserves a senator.  The special election is on the spring uniform election date, so there will be other city and school board elections, but these all cover small areas and they are unlikely to be be hotly contested.  The Fort Worth Startlegram and Dallas Morning News will cover the election peripherally, as will the TV and radio stations, since it is at best 10% of their immediate coverage area.

Sibley has the endorsement of Rep. Joe Barton, whose district includes Ellis and Navarro, and would be known in Johnson, and George W Bush who was governor when Sibley was senator.  He has the negative of having been a lobbyist in Austin for the past 8 years, and he took a homestead exemption for a house in Travis County.

Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.  He was at the Pentagon on 9/11 and received burns over 60% of this body.  There was an issue raised on whether he has been a Texas resident for the five years necessary.  His explanation was that he was still on active duty and also receiving continued treatment  (he has 39 operations) until 2007.  While a possible legal issue, it is not a favorable campaign issue (and the SOS has already ruled him eligible for the special election ballot).

Darren Yancy is from Burleson in Johnson County, insurance and real estate.  He lost the primary with 40% of the vote, which is probably a little better than he would have done had Averitt actually campaigned.  Averitt probably got a lot of the vote in the primary from name recognition of voters who were voting in the gubernatorial race, including crossovers and independents.  Turnout in the Republican Primary in the district was 5.7 times that as Democrats, vs. 2.2 statewide.  Yancy is the only candidate supporting Nullification.

Gayle Avant is the Democrat candidate.  He is a just-retiring law professor at Baylor (in Waco).   He says he would be like W.R.Poage who was a congressman from 1937-1979.  He will be going against Sibley in McLennan County, so voters who want a senator from Waco will vote for Sibley.  And there won't necessarily be voters who turn out to vote a straight Democratic ticket, since this will be the only partisan race on the ballot.

The winner has to have a majority, with a runoff in June if there isn't a majority, though it is not unknown for a runner-up to withdraw. 

If I understand the election code, the replacements for the general election don't have to be named until late August.  The Republicans will probably go with the winner of the special election.  The decisions is made by the county chairs of the 10 counties, so if it were a totally free vote, Sibley might have an advantage.  The Democrats will pick whoever is willing to run, so unless Avant gets 15% of the vote in the special election, it is probably his for the asking.  It doesn't matter, since the district was 68% McCain, and Republicans will be pushing turnout to defeat Edwards.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Brittain33 on April 25, 2010, 01:53:58 pm
Mass Senate (Norfolk, Bristol, Middlesex) D primary (http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/04/14/2_democrats_advance_in_senate_races/):

Peter Smulowitz - 3,806 (50.9%)
Lida Harkins - 3,666 (49.1%)

Like whooooooah.

Yonder toss-up race just became Lean Republican.

I would not bet on a Democrat in that district in this year, but from what I have seen on BMG and, more importantly, on RMG, the fact that Smulowitz is an appealing (if nerdy) candidate, working hard and with a good grass roots organization makes him a better candidate than Lida Harkins (as evidenced by him defeating her) in the general election. I haven't checked back with RMG in the last couple of days but they seem negative on Ross's energy level when they discussed it a few weeks ago.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Brittain33 on April 26, 2010, 10:18:29 am
Mass Senate (Norfolk, Bristol, Middlesex) D primary (http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/04/14/2_democrats_advance_in_senate_races/):

Peter Smulowitz - 3,806 (50.9%)
Lida Harkins - 3,666 (49.1%)

Like whooooooah.

Yonder toss-up race just became Lean Republican.

I would not bet on a Democrat in that district in this year, but from what I have seen on BMG and, more importantly, on RMG, the fact that Smulowitz is an appealing (if nerdy) candidate, working hard and with a good grass roots organization makes him a better candidate than Lida Harkins (as evidenced by him defeating her) in the general election. I haven't checked back with RMG in the last couple of days but they seem negative on Ross's energy level when they discussed it a few weeks ago.


And back on the first hand, Lida Harkins is pissed as hell at Smulowitz for his attacking her in the primary and all but endorsing the Republican, which is going to deny him a serious slug of votes he needed to win this. Ah well.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on April 26, 2010, 10:20:11 am
I would not bet on a Democrat in that district in this year, but from what I have seen on BMG and, more importantly, on RMG, the fact that Smulowitz is an appealing (if nerdy) candidate, working hard and with a good grass roots organization makes him a better candidate than Lida Harkins (as evidenced by him defeating her) in the general election. I haven't checked back with RMG in the last couple of days but they seem negative on Ross's energy level when they discussed it a few weeks ago.

Oh, I don't doubt that Democrats are better off with Smulowitz if he was able to defeat Harkins. I had simply presumed that Harkins would be much stronger than she turned out to be.

Smulowitz's problem is that he won the primary by going negative to the extent that Harkins is refusing to endorse him:

Quote from: Valentia Zic for the Needham Times
As the Massachusetts Senate race between Democrat Peter Smulowitz and Republican Richard Ross moves forward, state Representative Lida Harkins won’t be endorsing anyone in the race.

“I’m staying out of the race altogether,” said Harkins, who lost a hotly contested Democratic primary to Smulowitz on April 13, told the Needham Times.

Asked further whether she would support her House colleague, Republican Richard Ross in the campaign instead, Harkins said she was chair of Needham’s Democratic Town Committee, and that she respected that position.

Under those circumstances, Harkins said, “You don’t publicly endorse a Republican.”

In other words, "good luck with getting the numbers you need out of Needham." These are precisely the circumstances that lead to Republicans winning elections in seats about 10 to 20 points more Democratic than this one.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on April 26, 2010, 08:37:29 pm
Who are the candidates in the special election, and what party/parties are they from?  Also, any word on whether the Democrats will take advantage of the provision that allows them to nominate a candidate for the full term even though none filed by the normal deadline or got enough write-in votes in the primary (unless one did)?
Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.  He was at the Pentagon on 9/11 and received burns over 60% of this body.  There was an issue raised on whether he has been a Texas resident for the five years necessary.  His explanation was that he was still on active duty and also receiving continued treatment  (he has 39 operations) until 2007.  While a possible legal issue, it is not a favorable campaign issue (and the SOS has already ruled him eligible for the special election ballot).
Birdwell has just got a declaratory judgment that he has been a Texas resident since 1973.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 27, 2010, 07:01:07 pm
Bob McDonnell appointed a couple Delegates to posts in his administration, so there are two special elections slated for June 15 (yes, the week after the primary -- Virginia apparently can't hold two different elections on the same day), HD-26 and 27. Both are Republican seats and will likely stay Republican.

HD-26 is about 50/50 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, and is a very Republican district (Obama got 44% there, but that was because he overperformed there due to the presence of JMU). Democrats actually got a good candidate, the mayor of Harrisonburg, but I can't see a Democrat winning there. The last time the seat was open, in 2005, the Democrat lost 54-46, but that was a better environment for Dems.

HD-27 would be more interesting in a better environment for the Democrats. It's a Republican-leaning district, but it's in the suburbs of Richmond that have been drifting towards the Democrats somewhat. However, the Dems don't even have a candidate yet, so it may go uncontested.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on April 28, 2010, 02:01:54 am
HD 100 (South Dallas, Black 46%, Hispanic 36%, Anglo 16%): To replace Terri Hodge who resigned as part of her plea bargain.  She remained on the Democratic primary ballot where she receive a little over 22% of the vote.  This may draw only one candidate for the special election (the winner of the Democratic primary who is unopposed in November).
Hodge was just sentenced today to one year for not reporting $74,000 in income (from kickbacks/bribes).  Others involved in the case have received terms of up to 14 years.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on April 28, 2010, 02:11:28 am
California Senate District 15, to replace Abel Maldonado who has become Lt.Governor of California.

June 22, 2010 for the special primary, August 17, 2010 for the special general.

The district is a coastal strip from Santa Barbara to Monterey, with some spilling over into Santa Clara.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 28, 2010, 03:17:10 am
Ah, so Maldonado finally was confirmed? First Republican Lieutenant Governor in 25 years, he is. His district is literally a stone's throw from my house. I can see it from where I sit.

Democratic favorite is John Laird, former Assemblyman and Mayor of Santa Cruz. He's gay.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on April 29, 2010, 02:49:28 am
Ah, so Maldonado finally was confirmed? First Republican Lieutenant Governor in 25 years, he is. His district is literally a stone's throw from my house. I can see it from where I sit.

Democratic favorite is John Laird, former Assemblyman and Mayor of Santa Cruz. He's gay.
Yes.  Schwarzenegger had to nominate him a second time.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Brittain33 on April 29, 2010, 09:11:58 am
Democratic favorite is John Laird, former Assemblyman and Mayor of Santa Cruz. He's gay.

That would be pretty awesome to have two openly gay Lt. Governors elected this year--him and Richard Tisei in Mass.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Verily on April 29, 2010, 09:54:29 am
California Senate District 15, to replace Abel Maldonado who has become Lt.Governor of California.

June 22, 2010 for the special primary, August 17, 2010 for the special general.

The district is a coastal strip from Santa Barbara to Monterey, with some spilling over into Santa Clara.

Looking at a map... How the hell did a Republican ever win that district?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Holmes on April 29, 2010, 10:54:09 am
Democratic favorite is John Laird, former Assemblyman and Mayor of Santa Cruz. He's gay.

Hell yeah!


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on April 29, 2010, 11:02:37 am
Democratic favorite is John Laird, former Assemblyman and Mayor of Santa Cruz. He's gay.

That would be pretty awesome to have two openly gay Lt. Governors elected this year--him and Richard Tisei in Mass.
Is it John Laird who is gay, or Lt Gov Maldanado, or both?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Holmes on April 29, 2010, 12:32:13 pm
Haha. Gay Maldonado. It's Laird.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 29, 2010, 09:07:28 pm
Democratic favorite is John Laird, former Assemblyman and Mayor of Santa Cruz. He's gay.

That would be pretty awesome to have two openly gay Lt. Governors elected this year--him and Richard Tisei in Mass.

Laird's running for State Senate. The nominee for Lieutenant Governor will almost certainly be Gavin Newsom.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on April 30, 2010, 06:42:30 am
California Senate District 15, to replace Abel Maldonado who has become Lt.Governor of California.

June 22, 2010 for the special primary, August 17, 2010 for the special general.

The district is a coastal strip from Santa Barbara to Monterey, with some spilling over into Santa Clara.

Looking at a map... How the hell did a Republican ever win that district?
In 2002 it was an equal 40:40 registration, and Gore only carried it by 1.5%.

SLO had a 7% R advantage.

Sta Clara 5% R (its just the western and southern fringes - Saratoga, Los Gatos, Morgan Hill)

Monterey 7% D (vs, 12% D in the rest of the county, it leaves out the Salinas Valley)

Sta Barbara 3% R (vs. 6% D in the rest of the county) it is the area around Santa Maria and not Santa Barbara city.

Sta Cruz 19% D (but vs 33% D in the rest of the county) and it is only about 12% of the district.

Not only did Maldonado win in 2008, the Democrats didn't put up an opponent.  Maldonado actually tried to get the Democrat nomination as a write-in.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 02, 2010, 01:00:28 am
Sta Clara 5% R (its just the western and southern fringes - Saratoga, Los Gatos, Morgan Hill)

Is that so? That's rather interesting. Saratoga and Los Gatos both have sizable Asian populations.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 02, 2010, 10:51:59 am
There was a special election for LA House district 93 yesterday. The two candidates that made the runoff are Helena Moreno, who in 2008 lost in the primary runoff against Bill Jefferson, and James Perry, who got fifth in the Mayor's race this year due to low name recognition but is actually a pretty decent candidate.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 02, 2010, 11:09:56 am
There was a special election for LA House district 93 yesterday. The two candidates that made the runoff are Helena Moreno, who in 2008 lost in the primary runoff against Bill Jefferson, and James Perry, who got fifth in the Mayor's race this year due to low name recognition but is actually a pretty decent candidate.

It's a majority-black district, so I think I can guess who's going to win there. There was also one in East Baton Rouge, which also resulted in a Dem-Dem runoff.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 05, 2010, 01:14:09 pm
There was a special election for LA House district 93 yesterday. The two candidates that made the runoff are Helena Moreno, who in 2008 lost in the primary runoff against Bill Jefferson, and James Perry, who got fifth in the Mayor's race this year due to low name recognition but is actually a pretty decent candidate.

It's a majority-black district, so I think I can guess who's going to win there. There was also one in East Baton Rouge, which also resulted in a Dem-Dem runoff.

Hopefully; I will laugh at seeing Moreno lose a second time. She's one of the very few people in politics I have a legitimate personal distaste for. Still, she's throwing big money into the race, from what I hear...


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on May 08, 2010, 10:00:40 pm
Who are the candidates in the special election, and what party/parties are they from?  Also, any word on whether the Democrats will take advantage of the provision that allows them to nominate a candidate for the full term even though none filed by the normal deadline or got enough write-in votes in the primary (unless one did)?
With one precinct still out:

David Sibley(R) is from Waco and the former senator for the district.  

45.02% He led in McLennan County by a 62:24 on 8.6% turnout.

Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.

36.55% He led in Hood County with 68:15 on a 16.0% turnout.

The other counties were in the 5.0% range.  More votes were cast in Hood County than in either Johnson and Ellis County, though they have 2-1/2 to 3 times the population.

Birdwell and Sibley will face off in a runoff, which will be sometime in early June (the governor can pick the date).

Darren Yancy is from Burleson in Johnson County, insurance and real estate.

5.18%  His supporters will likely go for Birdwell.

Gayle Avant is the Democrat candidate.

13.24%.  He did quite a bit better in election day voting, than in early voting (11.7% vs 14.5%) so it may have been voters who were voting in a school or city election, and saw that he was a Democrat.  They will be less likely to show up to vote in an election between two Republicans.  

Since an issue raised in the campaign was Sibley's contributions to Democrats, he can't visibly be seen accepting support from Democrats.  If Birdwell can push turnout in other areas especially in the DFW area, he can probably be able to win the runoff.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on May 08, 2010, 10:18:35 pm
There was another district that had been added, HD 66 which is in Collin County, due to the resignation of Brian McCall to become chancellor of the Texas State University System (Texas has several independent system governing bodies, Texas State University system is just one of them).  But the loser of the Republican primary runoff, has just withdrawn from the special election, so the Republican primary winner, Van Taylor will become the current representative.
It turns out that the loser in the primary runoff did not withdraw in time to be removed from the special election ballot.  The SOS office apparently did not realize this and did not show the special election on their web site.

She won the special election on very light (3.1%) turnout.

Primary:

Mabrie Jackson 5616
Van Taylor 4581
Wayne Richard 3485

Primary runoff:

Van Taylor 4954
Mabrie Jackson 3541

Special:

Mabrie Jackson 1353
Van Taylor 1049


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Kevinstat on May 08, 2010, 11:10:40 pm
There was another district that had been added, HD 66 which is in Collin County, due to the resignation of Brian McCall to become chancellor of the Texas State University System (Texas has several independent system governing bodies, Texas State University system is just one of them).  But the loser of the Republican primary runoff, has just withdrawn from the special election, so the Republican primary winner, Van Taylor will become the current representative.
It turns out that the loser in the primary runoff did not withdraw in time to be removed from the special election ballot.  The SOS office apparently did not realize this and did not show the special election on their web site.

She won the special election on very light (3.1%) turnout.

Primary:

Mabrie Jackson 5616
Van Taylor 4581
Wayne Richard 3485

Primary runoff:

Van Taylor 4954
Mabrie Jackson 3541

Special:

Mabrie Jackson 1353
Van Taylor 1049


Wow!  While I find it unfortunate that the Secretary of State's Office did not list a special election on their web site (while they presumably did for the SD22 special election also held yesterday (Saturday)), and media coverage of the election might also have been poor, outcomes like this are part of what makes electoral politics fun for me.  Will the Legislature be in session between now and the inaugaration of the Legislators elected to full terms next year?  Or will Jackson likely never cast a vote in the partial term she was just elected to?

Who won yesterday's SD22 special election, by the way?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on May 09, 2010, 11:58:46 pm
There was another district that had been added, HD 66 which is in Collin County, due to the resignation of Brian McCall to become chancellor of the Texas State University System (Texas has several independent system governing bodies, Texas State University system is just one of them).  But the loser of the Republican primary runoff, has just withdrawn from the special election, so the Republican primary winner, Van Taylor will become the current representative.
It turns out that the loser in the primary runoff did not withdraw in time to be removed from the special election ballot.  The SOS office apparently did not realize this and did not show the special election on their web site.

She won the special election on very light (3.1%) turnout.

Primary:

Mabrie Jackson 5616
Van Taylor 4581
Wayne Richard 3485

Primary runoff:

Van Taylor 4954
Mabrie Jackson 3541

Special:

Mabrie Jackson 1353
Van Taylor 1049

Wow!  While I find it unfortunate that the Secretary of State's Office did not list a special election on their web site (while they presumably did for the SD22 special election also held yesterday (Saturday)), and media coverage of the election might also have been poor, outcomes like this are part of what makes electoral politics fun for me.  Will the Legislature be in session between now and the inaugaration of the Legislators elected to full terms next year?  Or will Jackson likely never cast a vote in the partial term she was just elected to?
It gets even curiouser!

The Secretary of State had cancelled the election and declared Taylor elected, which is why the HD 66 results were not on the SOS web site.  Taylor may have even been sworn in.
He is shown as a representative on the House of Representatives website.

In 2001, the Texas Constitution was amended to permit the legislature to provide for filling legislative vacancies when only one candidate has declared their candidacy.  To that end, they moved the filing date for write-in candidates in special elections to be the same as for on-ballot candidates.  Since a declared write-in candidate is "a candidate" this would avoid a problem with someone filing at the last minute and forcing an election.  And for most elections, the last date for withdrawal is within a week or so of the filing date.  So it is relatively easy to determine that there is only one candidate who has filed, since any withdrawals will have occurred before ballots are printed, or arrangements for polling places, etc. have been finalized.

For legislative races, candidates file with the Secretary of State, who in turn notifies the counties of the candidates, even if the district is within a single county.   So in this case, the governor proclaimed the election, and the SOS then notified Collin County about the election they would have to conduct.  The SOS would also notify the county of the candidates who had filed.

This particular election was conducted on an extremely short cycle, with the proclamation on April 2, and the uniform election date 36 days later (this is the absolute minimum time interval).  When there is such as short cycle, the withdrawal date is two days before early voting, which began on April 26.  And Jackson did withdraw before April 24, since the SOS cancelled the election on April 19.

When a candidate withdraws, their name is left off the ballot.  And in most elections this is no problem since the withdrawal deadline is so early, that rather than removing their name, it is actually a case of not printing their name.  But in this case, it may not have been practical.  Or it might be that they were told not to bother because the election was cancelled.  In any case, the ballots had been printed, because the votes show up on the Collin County elections website.

There is a similar provision when a candidate who qualifies for a runoff withdraws.  But again that withdrawal must occur within days of the first election, so that it permits the runoff to be cancelled before much effort has been made to arrange for it.

The law permitting cancellation of a special legislative election is written in an odd way.  It is actually framed more in terms of the conditions that would be needed for a school district or small town election to be cancelled - that all candidates for all offices are unopposed, and that there are no propositions on the ballot.  I am pretty sure the language was copied from that for other local elections.

So I don't think the special election should have been cancelled, but it was similar to a runoff election (Taylor and Jackson had been in the primary runoff, which was after the filing deadline for the special election).  If there shouldn't have been a cancellation, then it is possible that the whole election was void because of confusion to voters and candidates.

But I think the withdrawal by Jackson was in time.  I think that would make her ineligible to be elected.  If she was ineligible, it would mean that there is a new vacancy (this is similar to the case when a candidate dies, and they receive the most votes).

So in either case, there is still a vacancy.  Or it might be decided that the election was properly cancelled, and the printing of ballots and counting or votes was simply a mistake.

And now, the next uniform election date is in November.  The governor may call an emergency special election, but there really is no reason to do so.  The Texas legislature only meets in regular session in odd years.  It is unlikely that there will be a special session.  Texas uses a biennial budget, and the economy was in good enough shape last year that Texas should be able to squeeze through - there are some procedures that permit adjustments so that the legislature doesn't need to meet, and the state can still have a balanced budget.  Governor Perry wouldn't want a special session.  There are some interim committee meetings, but you don't really need a full legislature for that.

Who won yesterday's SD22 special election, by the way?
I gave those results on another reply - but I messed up the quoting.  Sibley and Birdwell advance to a runoff.

Really interesting turnout, with 16% in Hood County, Birdwell's home county that went overwhelmingly for him.  Hood is the 5th most populous county in the district, but had the 2nd number of votes.

Sibley carried his home county of McLennan County by a strong share, and 8% turnout.   The rest of the district was around 5%.

Sibley was just above 50%, and the entire vote from Hood County was dumped in at one time and shifted him to just over 40%.  At that time, there were still considerable votes out in McLennan county, and Sibley eventually got it back to about 45% to 37%.

The lone Democrat received 13%, and the other Republican 5%.

Since the campaign against Sibley was that he was a lobbyist who had contributed to Democrats, he can't too visibly seek votes from Democrats.  And I doubt that Democrats would mount too active of a campaign for him.  So Sibley probably won't get too many votes from ordinary rank and file Democrats.  Birdwell has the possibility of getting a really strong get out of the vote effort for the special election.  He did well in Johnson County on low turnout.  For some reason Sibley did better in Ellis County of equally low turnout.  When Sibley was senator before, Ellis was not in the district at the time.

There is still the determination of who will fill the nomination vacancy for the full term (because of redistricting, it will actually be for 2 years, rather than 4 years).  This will be made by the county chairmen from the 10 counties in the district.  If Birdwell wins big in the runoff, I suspect that that he will be the GOP choice.  The Democrats may pass because they don't want to have Republicans turning out and voting against Chet Edwards.  If Sibley wins the runoff, he will probably be the nominee because he is the establishment candidate.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 10, 2010, 07:09:47 am
Tomorrow is the special election for Scott Brown's state senate seat.

Also, there are three specials in Georgia tomorrow, but none look to be particularly interesting.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on May 10, 2010, 11:35:11 am
Tomorrow is the special election for Scott Brown's state senate seat.

Also, there are three specials in Georgia tomorrow, but none look to be particularly interesting.

Are they all safe Dem or safe GOP seats?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 10, 2010, 05:42:40 pm
Tomorrow is the special election for Scott Brown's state senate seat.

Also, there are three specials in Georgia tomorrow, but none look to be particularly interesting.

Are they all safe Dem or safe GOP seats?

HD-12 and SD-49 are Republican seats, while SD-42 is a Democratic seat.

HD-12 is the only one with both parties contesting; 2 Rs and 1 D. SD-49 is 2 Rs and a Libertarian. SD-42 is 2 Ds, a Libertarian, and an Independent.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 11, 2010, 05:01:30 pm
Apparently Jimmy Carter's grandson is running for the SD-42 seat.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on May 11, 2010, 05:48:12 pm
What is expected in Scott Brown's state Senate seat?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on May 11, 2010, 06:43:17 pm
What is expected in Scott Brown's state Senate seat?

It's a pretty Republican district (by Massachusetts standards.) Obama won it by about 2 points I think which in MA is quite weak.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 11, 2010, 07:58:12 pm
The Georgia specials did, indeed, turn out boring: the two Republican districts are being won by one of the two Republicans with around 80% of the vote, while Jason Carter is cruising to a 67% victory.

No numbers from Massachusetts, but I'm hearing the Dem got slaughtered.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Meeker on May 11, 2010, 11:29:28 pm
Massachusetts numbers

Ross (R): 62% (15,893)
Smulowitz (D): 38% (9,819)

Bleh


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on May 12, 2010, 12:15:03 am
Kind of odd, I don't have an exact map of the old Brown seat, but the general area doesn't look too Republican even by Massachusetts standards. I do know it is considered one of the safest GOP seats in Massachusetts though so I'm interested in a map.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Brittain33 on May 12, 2010, 07:27:53 am
Kind of odd, I don't have an exact map of the old Brown seat, but the general area doesn't look too Republican even by Massachusetts standards. I do know it is considered one of the safest GOP seats in Massachusetts though so I'm interested in a map.

The southern half is solidly Republican. The northern half is more Democratic, but the most Democratic town (Needham) went to Ross because the Dem savaged the state Rep. from that town in the primary and then she all but endorsed the Republican. (He was from there, too, but not a political veteran like her.) That was far from making the difference in the outcome, but it didn't help.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on May 12, 2010, 08:01:25 am
Kind of odd, I don't have an exact map of the old Brown seat, but the general area doesn't look too Republican even by Massachusetts standards. I do know it is considered one of the safest GOP seats in Massachusetts though so I'm interested in a map.

The southern half is solidly Republican. The northern half is more Democratic, but the most Democratic town (Needham) went to Ross because the Dem savaged the state Rep. from that town in the primary and then she all but endorsed the Republican. (He was from there, too, but not a political veteran like her.) That was far from making the difference in the outcome, but it didn't help.

The southern tip was stunningly Republican in this election.

In Wrentham, Ross won 86% of the vote, 1897 - 308. Eighty-six percent.

Ross got 81.2% in Plainville, 78.6% in North Attleboro, and 77.9% in Norfolk.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on May 12, 2010, 08:07:13 am
The full town-by-town results: http://www.redmassgroup.com/diary/8405/unofficial-results-have-ross-win-at-62


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on May 12, 2010, 08:21:29 am
Kind of odd, I don't have an exact map of the old Brown seat, but the general area doesn't look too Republican even by Massachusetts standards. I do know it is considered one of the safest GOP seats in Massachusetts though so I'm interested in a map.

The southern half is solidly Republican. The northern half is more Democratic, but the most Democratic town (Needham) went to Ross because the Dem savaged the state Rep. from that town in the primary and then she all but endorsed the Republican. (He was from there, too, but not a political veteran like her.) That was far from making the difference in the outcome, but it didn't help.

The southern tip was stunningly Republican in this election.

In Wrentham, Ross won 86% of the vote, 1897 - 308. Eighty-six percent.

Ross got 81.2% in Plainville, 78.6% in North Attleboro, and 77.9% in Norfolk.

Brown only got 73.9% or something in Wrentham.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Brittain33 on May 12, 2010, 10:14:19 am
Brown only got 73.9% or something in Wrentham.

Lower turnout for state legislature special vs. Senate special, plus the nature of what's passed at a state level, means parochial connections count for even more than usual.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 13, 2010, 08:44:51 am
The June 22 special for CA SD-15 (Maldonado's seat) has four candidates: a Democrat, a Republican, a Libertarian and an Independent. Due the the open primary law, if nobody wins a majority, there will be a general election in August... with the same four candidates.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Holmes on May 13, 2010, 09:06:09 am
The June 22 special for CA SD-15 (Maldonado's seat) has four candidates: a Democrat, a Republican, a Libertarian and an Independent. Due the the open primary law, if nobody wins a majority, there will be a general election in August... with the same four candidates.

I'll give everyone a heads up. :)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 13, 2010, 09:38:44 am
Apparently there's been a lawsuit filed to stay the election:

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_15071849?nclick_check=1


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: Nutmeg on May 13, 2010, 04:07:06 pm
Apparently there's been a lawsuit filed to stay the election:

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_15071849?nclick_check=1

The article breathlessly declares it a "highly politicized race."  Such is the nature of politics.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 13, 2010, 08:58:29 pm
Monterey County being a VRA county, the courts can and have stayed the election.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 13, 2010, 09:05:18 pm
Apparently there's been a lawsuit filed to stay the election:

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_15071849?nclick_check=1

The article breathlessly declares it a "highly politicized race."  Such is the nature of politics.

I wonder when the last time a contested partisan election hasn't been politicized.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on May 15, 2010, 06:40:37 pm
Probably when Tom Osborne ran for Congress from Nebraska CD-3 in 2004.  His 2002 and 2000 races were the only two other instances that I can think of.

The thing is, he is pretty much to a living "saint" in Nebraska, added to the reality that CD-3 is probably 70% Republican, so it is a unique set of circumstances.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on May 16, 2010, 08:14:15 am
Apparently there's been a lawsuit filed to stay the election:

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_15071849?nclick_check=1

If the legislature had confirmed Maldonado a week earlier, the special primary could have been held on June 8, the same day as the statewide primary.  Had Schwarzenegger waited 9 days to issue his proclamation, it would have been 180 days from November 2, and the special general could have been held then, though the special primary would still have been in the Summer (August 31).

Given all the squawking about the dates, it is pretty clear that the Democrat boys and girls at Sacramento Junior High were playing a game to keep SD 15 from being represented during the budget negotiations, and Schwarzenegger upset their plan.

Monterey County is covered by Section 5 of the VRA because in 1968 it had a voting test, and less than 50% of the adult population voted in the general election.  California until 1972 had a literacy test (in English).  But the main reason that it had less than 50% turnout in 1968 was because of Fort Ord.

As late as 1990, Fort Ord had 3% turnout, while for the rest of the county it was 40%.  During redistricting plans were made on including Fort Ord (and also Soledad Prison) in minority supervisor districts because they would bump up the total population and the minority percentage, while not actually having many voters.  The DOD encouraged military to vote in their home residences.  Fort Ord was BRAC'ed in 1994.

Because Monterey is covered by Section 5, they are quite experienced in filing with the DOJ.  The day after the governor's proclamation the county election head called the DOJ, and made their first formal filing within the week, and a supplemental filing a week later.

The lawsuit was filed after Monterey County had filed for preclearance on a expedited basis.  Monterey County has said that they wouldn't object to an injunction because they are really concerned that voters might be disenfranchised.  So some other citizens have intervened with defendants.  The State of California (the other defendant) pointed out that under the 11th Amendment that the federal court could not enjoin California from conducting the election, so now the plaintiffs have sought to add Governor Schwarzenegger as a defendant, though it would have made more sense to name Debra Bowen, except she is a Democrat.

So far the court has issued a temporary restraining order from sending out absentee ballots.  After the court's order, Monterey County filed that they had received preclearance from the DOJ for the early election.  They had a supplemental filing where they asked for preclearance for other changes, including moving two polling locations, and also some changes related to absentee ballot procedures, such as putting the voter's pamphlet and ballot in the same envelope, and encouraging overseas voters to have an e-mail address on file so that ballots may be sent by e-mail (then returned by fax).  If the court doesn't dissolve the TRO, it will be the lawsuit that caused the delay that prevented the election from being held.

Before the gubernatorial recall election in 2003, there was similar litigation.  A couple of propositions had been moved from the March 2004 primary to the October 2003 statewide election.  The court had blocked sending of absentee ballots, but then preclearance from the DOJ was received, and the election went on.

Merced County is also a covered jurisdiction under Section 5.  In their case, they had 49.6% participation in 1972, which may have been due to the Census Bureau's estimate assuming that all population growth between 1970 and 1972 were citizens.  And like Monterey County, it had a military base (Castle AFB) that was BRAC'ed in the 1990s.  Merced County has spent $1 million in VRA pre-clearance over the past decade, and has recently filed for a bailout.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 19, 2010, 07:24:59 am
Lost in the hoopla last night were three special elections in Pennsylvania. Probably because they were all safe seats. Results:

HD-20 - Allegheny

Adam Ravenstahl (D) - 5,645 (62.8%)
Alex Dubart (R) - 2,479 (27.6%)
Daryl Putman (L) - 864 (9.6%)

HD-138 - Northampton

Marcia Hahn (R) - 4,055 (77.8%)
Cory Miller (D) - 1,158 (22.2%)

HD-147 - Montgomery

Marcy Toepel (R) - 3,785 (66.1%)
Robert Dodge (D) - 1,940 (33.9%)

Yes, that is Pittsburgh Mayor Luke Ravenstahl's brother. Gotta start that dynasty.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on May 21, 2010, 05:11:36 am
David Sibley(R) is from Waco and the former senator for the district.  

45.02% He led in McLennan County by a 62:24 on 8.6% turnout.

Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.

36.55% He led in Hood County with 68:15 on a 16.0% turnout.

The runoff is set for June 22.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on May 24, 2010, 07:53:08 am
I don't think it's been scheduled yet, but I believe there will be a special election for Rep. Richard Ross's (R) seat now that he's been elected to the State Senate.

Massachusetts' Ninth Norfolk district is indeed a rare breed: It's a McCain district.

    * McCain 10,830 (49.18%)
    * Obama 10,794 (49.02%)
    * Other 397 (1.80%)

I presume the front runner for the seat is Norfolk Town Moderator Dan Winslow (http://danwinslow.com/). He also served as Chief Legal Council for Governor Mitt Romney.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Brittain33 on May 24, 2010, 07:54:29 am
I don't think it's been scheduled yet, but I believe there will be a special election for Rep. Richard Ross's (R) seat now that he's been elected to the State Senate.

Massachusetts' Ninth Norfolk district is indeed a rare breed: It's a McCain district.

    * McCain 10,830 (49.18%)
    * Obama 10,794 (49.02%)
    * Other 397 (1.80%)

I presume the front runner for the seat is Norfolk Town Moderator Dan Winslow (http://danwinslow.com/). He also served as Chief Legal Council for Governor Mitt Romney.

The domino effect from Scott Brown's win pushing into summer special elections is amusing, even if it's not uncommon.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on May 24, 2010, 09:11:49 am
I don't think it's been scheduled yet, but I believe there will be a special election for Rep. Richard Ross's (R) seat now that he's been elected to the State Senate.

Massachusetts' Ninth Norfolk district is indeed a rare breed: It's a McCain district.

    * McCain 10,830 (49.18%)
    * Obama 10,794 (49.02%)
    * Other 397 (1.80%)

I presume the front runner for the seat is Norfolk Town Moderator Dan Winslow (http://danwinslow.com/). He also served as Chief Legal Council for Governor Mitt Romney.

The domino effect from Scott Brown's win pushing into summer special elections is amusing, even if it's not uncommon.

I am sure the MA GOP also enjoys hearing the words "Safe Republican" to describe both a state senate seat and a State Rep seat. Probably a rare occurance for an open seat since most are Safe Democratic or beyond.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: We Have A Pope on May 24, 2010, 09:27:44 am
I don't think it's been scheduled yet, but I believe there will be a special election for Rep. Richard Ross's (R) seat now that he's been elected to the State Senate.

Massachusetts' Ninth Norfolk district is indeed a rare breed: It's a McCain district.

    * McCain 10,830 (49.18%)
    * Obama 10,794 (49.02%)
    * Other 397 (1.80%)

I presume the front runner for the seat is Norfolk Town Moderator Dan Winslow (http://danwinslow.com/). He also served as Chief Legal Council for Governor Mitt Romney.

The domino effect from Scott Brown's win pushing into summer special elections is amusing, even if it's not uncommon.

I am sure the MA GOP also enjoys hearing the words "Safe Republican" to describe both a state senate seat and a State Rep seat. Probably a rare occurance for an open seat since most are Safe Democratic or beyond.

Enjoy it while you can (this is still Massachusetts :P )


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on May 24, 2010, 04:02:23 pm
I don't think it's been scheduled yet, but I believe there will be a special election for Rep. Richard Ross's (R) seat now that he's been elected to the State Senate.

Massachusetts' Ninth Norfolk district is indeed a rare breed: It's a McCain district.

    * McCain 10,830 (49.18%)
    * Obama 10,794 (49.02%)
    * Other 397 (1.80%)

I presume the front runner for the seat is Norfolk Town Moderator Dan Winslow (http://danwinslow.com/). He also served as Chief Legal Council for Governor Mitt Romney.

The domino effect from Scott Brown's win pushing into summer special elections is amusing, even if it's not uncommon.

I am sure the MA GOP also enjoys hearing the words "Safe Republican" to describe both a state senate seat and a State Rep seat. Probably a rare occurance for an open seat since most are Safe Democratic or beyond.

Enjoy it while you can (this is still Massachusetts :P )

No, Srsly? I thought it was Alabama. :P


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 30, 2010, 03:52:32 pm
There was a special election for LA House district 93 yesterday. The two candidates that made the runoff are Helena Moreno, who in 2008 lost in the primary runoff against Bill Jefferson, and James Perry, who got fifth in the Mayor's race this year due to low name recognition but is actually a pretty decent candidate.

It's a majority-black district, so I think I can guess who's going to win there. There was also one in East Baton Rouge, which also resulted in a Dem-Dem runoff.

Hopefully; I will laugh at seeing Moreno lose a second time. She's one of the very few people in politics I have a legitimate personal distaste for. Still, she's throwing big money into the race, from what I hear...

Moreno's money must have trumped the racial makeup of the district, as she won the runoff last night, 56-44.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on June 02, 2010, 10:57:16 am
Aw :(


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Holmes on June 05, 2010, 04:44:38 pm
Well, my boyfriend voted for Laird today. And then got a push poll against him... said that Laird was being endorsed or something by special interests, and if a Republican gets attacked regarding offshore drilling, if that's a fair or not. They didn't give a name... just said they were independent.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 05, 2010, 05:05:29 pm
I've seen a couple of Laird signs here.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mr.Phips on June 05, 2010, 06:21:14 pm
I've seen a couple of Laird signs here.

Who does it look like will win here?  Laird should win since this district is very Democratic and he represented half of the district for many years until 2008 in the State Assembly.  However, Democrats have been doing awful in winnable special elections lately. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Holmes on June 05, 2010, 06:45:48 pm
I can't say, personally. I mean Laird was the mayor of Santa Cruz and he's a good candidate for the area, so obviously his support is gonna be really high down there compared to the rest of the district.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mr.Phips on June 05, 2010, 06:50:27 pm
I can't say, personally. I mean Laird was the mayor of Santa Cruz and he's a good candidate for the area, so obviously his support is gonna be really high down there compared to the rest of the district.

I expect Laird to run up the score in Santa Cruz and Santa Clara and do well in Monterey, while his opponent will probably win big in San Luis Obispo, which he represents in the Assembly and is about a third of the district. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 05, 2010, 07:04:36 pm
I've seen a couple of Laird signs here.

Who does it look like will win here?  Laird should win since this district is very Democratic and he represented half of the district for many years until 2008 in the State Assembly.  However, Democrats have been doing awful in winnable special elections lately. 

I don't see the district as being very Democratic (if it were so Democratic, perhaps Abel would have had an opponent), and I'm not sure to what extent state legislative special elections in Louisiana or wherever impact the election results here. Tht said, I haven't been along the coast much south of Monterey since I was 7. Laird will clean house in the places I'm familiar with.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mr.Phips on June 05, 2010, 07:37:45 pm
I've seen a couple of Laird signs here.

Who does it look like will win here?  Laird should win since this district is very Democratic and he represented half of the district for many years until 2008 in the State Assembly.  However, Democrats have been doing awful in winnable special elections lately. 

I don't see the district as being very Democratic (if it were so Democratic, perhaps Abel would have had an opponent), and I'm not sure to what extent state legislative special elections in Louisiana or wherever impact the election results here. Tht said, I haven't been along the coast much south of Monterey since I was 7. Laird will clean house in the places I'm familiar with.

The district is certainly very Democratic.  Obama won here by 20 points and even John Kerry won it by seven points. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Kevinstat on June 06, 2010, 11:55:30 am
I've seen a couple of Laird signs here.

Who does it look like will win here?  Laird should win since this district is very Democratic and he represented half of the district for many years until 2008 in the State Assembly.  However, Democrats have been doing awful in winnable special elections lately. 

I don't see the district as being very Democratic (if it were so Democratic, perhaps Abel would have had an opponent), and I'm not sure to what extent state legislative special elections in Louisiana or wherever impact the election results here. Tht said, I haven't been along the coast much south of Monterey since I was 7. Laird will clean house in the places I'm familiar with.

The district is certainly very Democratic.  Obama won here by 20 points and even John Kerry won it by seven points. 

So, who won?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Meeker on June 06, 2010, 01:07:42 pm
I've seen a couple of Laird signs here.

Who does it look like will win here?  Laird should win since this district is very Democratic and he represented half of the district for many years until 2008 in the State Assembly.  However, Democrats have been doing awful in winnable special elections lately. 

I don't see the district as being very Democratic (if it were so Democratic, perhaps Abel would have had an opponent), and I'm not sure to what extent state legislative special elections in Louisiana or wherever impact the election results here. Tht said, I haven't been along the coast much south of Monterey since I was 7. Laird will clean house in the places I'm familiar with.

The district is certainly very Democratic.  Obama won here by 20 points and even John Kerry won it by seven points. 

So, who won?

I believe the election is Tuesday.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Holmes on June 06, 2010, 01:09:09 pm
It's the 22nd.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Kevinstat on June 06, 2010, 02:27:22 pm
Silly me.  There have been two many elections over the weekend lately.  :D


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 07, 2010, 06:34:28 pm
The pre-election fundraising reports for the two Virginia House of Delegates seats (previously held by Republicans) on 6/15 were posted on VPAP today. Surprisingly, the Democrat in HD-26 (Harrisonburg Mayor Kai Degner) outraised the Republican, $109k to $96k. There's also an independent candidate who raised about $500. In HD-27, not very exciting, the Republican outraised the Democrat $109k to $6k.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mr.Phips on June 07, 2010, 07:51:31 pm
The pre-election fundraising reports for the two Virginia House of Delegates seats (previously held by Republicans) on 6/15 were posted on VPAP today. Surprisingly, the Democrat in HD-26 (Harrisonburg Mayor Kai Degner) outraised the Republican, $109k to $96k. There's also an independent candidate who raised about $500. In HD-27, not very exciting, the Republican outraised the Democrat $109k to $6k.

And HD-27 is the district Obama won.  Amazing how inept Democrats are at these special elections.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 07, 2010, 09:14:49 pm
The pre-election fundraising reports for the two Virginia House of Delegates seats (previously held by Republicans) on 6/15 were posted on VPAP today. Surprisingly, the Democrat in HD-26 (Harrisonburg Mayor Kai Degner) outraised the Republican, $109k to $96k. There's also an independent candidate who raised about $500. In HD-27, not very exciting, the Republican outraised the Democrat $109k to $6k.

And HD-27 is the district Obama won.  Amazing how inept Democrats are at these special elections.

That really doesn't mean much; Obama overperformed in a lot of suburban districts that are otherwise solidly Republican.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mr.Phips on June 08, 2010, 01:07:19 am
The pre-election fundraising reports for the two Virginia House of Delegates seats (previously held by Republicans) on 6/15 were posted on VPAP today. Surprisingly, the Democrat in HD-26 (Harrisonburg Mayor Kai Degner) outraised the Republican, $109k to $96k. There's also an independent candidate who raised about $500. In HD-27, not very exciting, the Republican outraised the Democrat $109k to $6k.

And HD-27 is the district Obama won.  Amazing how inept Democrats are at these special elections.

That really doesn't mean much; Obama overperformed in a lot of suburban districts that are otherwise solidly Republican.

That is true, but in November, Democrats lost some districts Obama carried heavily and even some that John Kerry won and in some cases even Steve Shannon and Jody Wagner won like AD-86, AD-51, the Vanderhye seat and a few others.  Democrats had no excuse to lose these as there werent even coattails for Republicans here. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 08, 2010, 06:10:11 am
The only seat the Republicans picked up that didn't go McDonnell/Bolling/Cuccinelli was HD-34, and that was only because Shannon tied it 50-50. As for the 86th, Stevens Miller wasn't that great of a candidate; he didn't raise much money and was dependent on the state party to do the heavy lifting for him.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on June 08, 2010, 12:49:44 pm
I've seen a couple of Laird signs here.

Who does it look like will win here?  Laird should win since this district is very Democratic and he represented half of the district for many years until 2008 in the State Assembly.  However, Democrats have been doing awful in winnable special elections lately. 

I don't see the district as being very Democratic (if it were so Democratic, perhaps Abel would have had an opponent), and I'm not sure to what extent state legislative special elections in Louisiana or wherever impact the election results here. Tht said, I haven't been along the coast much south of Monterey since I was 7. Laird will clean house in the places I'm familiar with.

The district is certainly very Democratic.  Obama won here by 20 points and even John Kerry won it by seven points. 
Schwarzenegger carried the district by 30.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mr.Phips on June 08, 2010, 02:36:36 pm
I've seen a couple of Laird signs here.

Who does it look like will win here?  Laird should win since this district is very Democratic and he represented half of the district for many years until 2008 in the State Assembly.  However, Democrats have been doing awful in winnable special elections lately. 

I don't see the district as being very Democratic (if it were so Democratic, perhaps Abel would have had an opponent), and I'm not sure to what extent state legislative special elections in Louisiana or wherever impact the election results here. Tht said, I haven't been along the coast much south of Monterey since I was 7. Laird will clean house in the places I'm familiar with.

The district is certainly very Democratic.  Obama won here by 20 points and even John Kerry won it by seven points. 
Schwarzenegger carried the district by 30.


Schwarzanegger carried almost every district. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 08, 2010, 03:27:35 pm
I think his point may have been 'by 30'.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on June 10, 2010, 10:53:00 am
David Sibley(R) is from Waco and the former senator for the district.  

45.02% He led in McLennan County by a 62:24 on 8.6% turnout.

Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.

36.55% He led in Hood County with 68:15 on a 16.0% turnout.

The runoff is set for June 22.

 Legal experts express doubts about validity of ruling on state Senate candidate's eligibility  (http://www.wacotrib.com/news/Legal-experts-express-doubts-about-validity-of-ruling-on-state-Senate-candidates-eligibility.html)

An article in the Waco newspaper that indirectly questions Birdwell's eligibility.



Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 14, 2010, 06:22:37 am
The two Virginia specials are tomorrow, as well as one in Massachusetts that doesn't have a Republican running. My guess for the Virginia ones are about a 60% win for the Republican in HD-26 and about a 70% win for the Republican in HD-27.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 15, 2010, 04:05:51 pm
So I'm at Laird's Santa Clara County office doing clerical work.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 15, 2010, 06:38:53 pm
Well, Chesterfield County certainly counts votes quickly. It's all in, 73-27 for the Republican. Still nothing from the 26th.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 15, 2010, 06:49:50 pm
Part of the 26th is in, and Democrat Kai Degner barely won Harrisonburg 48-47. Nice try, anyway.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 15, 2010, 06:55:37 pm
Yeah, Republican Tony Wilt is winning Rockingham 81-16. Ouch.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 20, 2010, 10:07:31 am
Tuesday brings us the primary for the California SD-15 seat formerly occupied by Maldonado. Despite being a primary, there's only one candidate from each of four parties on the ballot. In order to win, someone has to get a majority of the vote, otherwise there's a runoff with the same four people in August. It seems rather silly to me.

It looks like Democrat John Laird has the fundraising edge; he's spent $756k, as opposed to Republican Sam Blakeslee, who has spent $435k. For a California State Senate seat, that seems pretty cheap; there were State House races in Virginia that involved more money than that last year.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Holmes on June 22, 2010, 10:49:41 pm
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/special/1559.htm

27% in and Blakeslee is up 9%. For what it's worth, it seems Santa Cruz is the only county that hasn't reported anything yet, just its early votes. As expected, Blakeslee is winning San Luis and Santa Barbara big, and Laird is winning Monterey and Santa Cruz big. Santa Clara is pretty much tied and will probably decide it... but I bet there'll be a runoff, barely.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mr.Phips on June 22, 2010, 11:10:46 pm
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/special/1559.htm

27% in and Blakeslee is up 9%. For what it's worth, it seems Santa Cruz is the only county that hasn't reported anything yet, just its early votes. As expected, Blakeslee is winning San Luis and Santa Barbara big, and Laird is winning Monterey and Santa Cruz big. Santa Clara is pretty much tied and will probably decide it... but I bet there'll be a runoff, barely.

If Laird is to win the runoff, he is going to have to flip Santa Clara in his favor.  He should be able to do that.  Its very liberal and Obama won 63% there.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Holmes on June 22, 2010, 11:22:43 pm
Just a tiny amount of San Jose is in the district, though. You can't extrapolate the 2008 results and make a prediction on tonight's showing from them.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on June 22, 2010, 11:24:32 pm
That seat looks rather gerrymandered.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on June 22, 2010, 11:25:47 pm
Senate District 22 - Texas.  Special election runoff for the remainder of the 2007-2011 term.

David Sibley(R) is from Waco and the former senator for the district.  

Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.

CountyBirdwell
Sibley
Total
Percent
Bosque
581
377
958
61%
Coryell
572
476
1,048
55%
Ellis
1,548
670
2,218
70%
Falls
131
275
406
32%
Hill
545
327
872
63%
Hood
3,274
343
3,617
91%
Johnson
2,313
290
2,603
89%
McLennan
4,263
7,313
11,576
37%
Navarro
736
233
969
76%
Somervell
235
29
264
89%





Total
14,198
10,330
24,531
58%

McLennan County (Waco) is around 35% of the district and managed to get 47% of the vote, but with only tepid (63%) support for the hometown boy.  The Fort Worth suburbs managed much higher support, and Birdwell also won the counties in between.

The turnout in Ellis and Johnson was pretty low - combined they have more population than McLennan combined.  Johnson in particular took a low key approach, consolidating everything into 5 precincts, while McLennan had 93.

There is a newspaper report that Kip Averitt, who triggered the special election by resigning the seat, is considering staying in the race for the full term.

Averitt had filed in the primary for the full term (2011-2013, shortened to 2 years due to redistricting), and outsider Darren Yancy had filed against him in the Republican primary.  No Democrats filed.

Averitt's doctor advised him not to run, and he initially was going to withdraw from the primary.  But that would have meant that Yancy, who was not from Waco, would win the primary and general election by default.  So Averitt remained in the race, but did not campaign, and was nominated in the March Primary for the 2011-2013 term.

If a nominee withdraws, he ordinarily can't be replaced.  But if he is the only nominee chosen at a primary, all parties can name a new nominee.

After he was nominated, Averitt announced his resignation from the final year of his 2007-2011 term, which triggered the special election (and runoff).  Former senator David Sibley (from Waco) announced he was running.  A Democrat and Yancy ran.  But Brian Birdwell also entered the race.  If it had been Sibley vs. the Democrat and Yancy, Sibley would have easily won, and then the county chairs would have nominated him for the full term.  The Democrats might have passed, simply because the district overlaps much of Chet Edwards congressional district.

But now that the voters have chosen Birdwell, the county chairs might be reluctant to nominate Sibley for the full term.  They could, because it is one county, one vote.

Averitt is now considering not withdrawing.  So he will have (1) filed for renomination; (2) announced that wasn't going to run; (3) announcing that he wasn't going to formally withdraw from the primary, which would permit his replacement if he was nominated; (4) nof campaigning before the primary, but being nominated; (5) announced his resignation from the current term, which triggered a special election; and (6) announced that he is reconsidering not withdrawing from his nomination.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on June 23, 2010, 12:06:21 am
Just a tiny amount of San Jose is in the district, though. You can't extrapolate the 2008 results and make a prediction on tonight's showing from them.
I think by-mail voting is going to end up being 75-80% of the vote.

Santa Clara has 53 of 103 precincts in with 2732 votes vs 20,182 by mail.   Blakeslee appears to be doing a little bit better in election day voting.  So it could end up really close to 50%.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 23, 2010, 12:22:27 am
That seat looks rather gerrymandered.

Yes. It's a good thing this is going to be the last election it sees.

Lots of mail voting here. The failure to carry Santa Clara doesn't bode well for us. There's about an equall number of precincts out between Democratic Santa Cruz and Monterey and Republican San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara. Blakeslee will be riding up right near that 50% mark.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mr.Phips on June 23, 2010, 12:40:17 am
Using my spreadsheet, I have Blakeslee with 48% and Baird with 43%.  Even though Baird represented 55% of this district and Blakeslee only 45%, Baird is behind because he is only winning his Assembly district 52%-40% and Blakeslee is winning 59%-31% in his.  Baird is going to have to win over more Democrats, especially in Santa Clara, if he is going to win the runoff.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 23, 2010, 01:09:46 am
Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on June 23, 2010, 01:17:27 am
Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.
I think it is going to end up around 49.5%.  Santa Clara and Santa Cruz are all in.  Monterey is getting close.  Santa Barbara has had any more in a few hours, but is only 8.6% of district.

Since nobody got a majority, this is just a primary with 4 unopposed candidates.  So unless Fitzgerald folds, it comes down to who can get the more turnout or turn-in because of the mail ballotes.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mr.Phips on June 23, 2010, 01:30:58 am
Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

Just look at Santa Clara county.  The result there implies a pretty significant crossover vote as well as low Democratic turnout.   Obama won 63% in the portion included in the district and John Kerry got 56% there.  Laird has to win there with room to spare to have a chance in the runoff.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on June 23, 2010, 01:32:05 am
Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.
I think it is going to end up around 49.5%.  Santa Clara and Santa Cruz are all in.  Monterey is getting close.  Santa Barbara has had any more in a few hours, but is only 8.6% of district.

Since nobody got a majority, this is just a primary with 4 unopposed candidates.  So unless Fitzgerald folds, it comes down to who can get the more turnout or turn-in because of the mail ballotes.
49.71%  I'm not sure that write-ins are being reported consistently, or whether they count in determining a majority.

And were all the by-mail ballots counted tonight?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 23, 2010, 01:44:11 am
Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

Just look at Santa Clara county.  The result there implies a pretty significant crossover vote as well as low Democratic turnout.   Obama won 63% in the portion included in the district and John Kerry got 56% there.  Laird has to win there with room to spare to have a chance in the runoff.

There was no crossover vote. The issue was turnout. I recieved information in the evening that Republicans voted by mail at a rate of approximately 4% more than Democrats, which would imply that there was very little crossover on either side. Of course Laird needs to win Santa Clara County to stand a chance in the runoff, but his disadvantage is a structural one, stemming from the fact that this is the least Democratic part of the county, and that low-turnout elections (as state legislative special elections are bound to be) favor Republicans.

Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.
I think it is going to end up around 49.5%.  Santa Clara and Santa Cruz are all in.  Monterey is getting close.  Santa Barbara has had any more in a few hours, but is only 8.6% of district.

Since nobody got a majority, this is just a primary with 4 unopposed candidates.  So unless Fitzgerald folds, it comes down to who can get the more turnout or turn-in because of the mail ballotes.
49.71%  I'm not sure that write-ins are being reported consistently, or whether they count in determining a majority.

And were all the by-mail ballots counted tonight?

To the best of my knowledge, yes.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on June 23, 2010, 01:48:30 am
Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

Just look at Santa Clara county.  The result there implies a pretty significant crossover vote as well as low Democratic turnout.   Obama won 63% in the portion included in the district and John Kerry got 56% there.  Laird has to win there with room to spare to have a chance in the runoff.
McCain only ran about 2-3% ahead of Republican registration in the northern 3 counties, so maybe 15-20% of the independent vote.  He did a lot better in SLO, and somewhat better in Santa Barbara.

Assuming equal turnout among Republicans, Democrats, and independents, a Republican only needs a bit over 60% among independents to win.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Holmes on June 23, 2010, 09:08:33 am
I'm pretty surprised Blakeslee did so well in Santa Barbara. Granted, I don't know too much about Santa Barbara, let alone what part of it is in the district. Though, Laird definitely needs to perform better in Santa Clara, Santa Cruz and Monterey to win in August.

Also, I hope those three can be redistricted out of the wretched SoCal next year.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Holmes on June 23, 2010, 09:17:22 am
Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

Just look at Santa Clara county.  The result there implies a pretty significant crossover vote as well as low Democratic turnout.   Obama won 63% in the portion included in the district and John Kerry got 56% there.  Laird has to win there with room to spare to have a chance in the runoff.

Ehh, did you read my post? Santa Clara has 1.6million residents, and probably 150k people from Santa Clara are actually in this district, most from small cities and towns, and unincorporated areas. You can't use any county-wide result and apply it to this district considering <10% of the county actually lives in this district. And San Jose is hardly in this district too, and that city carries a lot of weight in county-wide results.

That said, yeah, Laird should be able to win it, but not by much. He needs to work harder till August.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 23, 2010, 09:58:55 am
I'm pretty surprised Blakeslee did so well in Santa Barbara. Granted, I don't know too much about Santa Barbara, let alone what part of it is in the district. Though, Laird definitely needs to perform better in Santa Clara, Santa Cruz and Monterey to win in August.

Also, I hope those three can be redistricted out of the wretched SoCal next year.

It's just northern Santa Barbara that's in this district (the area around Santa Maria, where Maldonado's from). Santa Barbara iself is outside the district, just like Santa Cruz.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on June 23, 2010, 07:42:45 pm
Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.
Just look at Santa Clara county.  The result there implies a pretty significant crossover vote as well as low Democratic turnout.   Obama won 63% in the portion included in the district and John Kerry got 56% there.  Laird has to win there with room to spare to have a chance in the runoff.
Ehh, did you read my post? Santa Clara has 1.6million residents, and probably 150k people from Santa Clara are actually in this district, most from small cities and towns, and unincorporated areas. You can't use any county-wide result and apply it to this district considering <10% of the county actually lives in this district. And San Jose is hardly in this district too, and that city carries a lot of weight in county-wide results.

That said, yeah, Laird should be able to win it, but not by much. He needs to work harder till August.
The Secretary of State publishes presidential election results by senate district (and county within the district), as well as for assembly and congressional districts.

Go ahead and check it out.  If you have difficulty finding it, ask questions, and perhaps someone can assist you.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mr.Phips on June 24, 2010, 01:36:20 am
Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

Just look at Santa Clara county.  The result there implies a pretty significant crossover vote as well as low Democratic turnout.   Obama won 63% in the portion included in the district and John Kerry got 56% there.  Laird has to win there with room to spare to have a chance in the runoff.

Ehh, did you read my post? Santa Clara has 1.6million residents, and probably 150k people from Santa Clara are actually in this district, most from small cities and towns, and unincorporated areas. You can't use any county-wide result and apply it to this district considering <10% of the county actually lives in this district. And San Jose is hardly in this district too, and that city carries a lot of weight in county-wide results.

That said, yeah, Laird should be able to win it, but not by much. He needs to work harder till August.

The part of Santa Clara in the district went 63% for Obama as opposed to 69% for Obama in the county as a whole. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on June 24, 2010, 10:28:37 pm
Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

Just look at Santa Clara county.  The result there implies a pretty significant crossover vote as well as low Democratic turnout.   Obama won 63% in the portion included in the district and John Kerry got 56% there.  Laird has to win there with room to spare to have a chance in the runoff.

Ehh, did you read my post? Santa Clara has 1.6million residents, and probably 150k people from Santa Clara are actually in this district, most from small cities and towns, and unincorporated areas. You can't use any county-wide result and apply it to this district considering <10% of the county actually lives in this district. And San Jose is hardly in this district too, and that city carries a lot of weight in county-wide results.

That said, yeah, Laird should be able to win it, but not by much. He needs to work harder till August.

The part of Santa Clara in the district went 63% for Obama as opposed to 69% for Obama in the county as a whole. 
62.1%.  You might be disregarding the 1.7% of the vote cast for other candidates.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on August 11, 2010, 06:57:00 pm
David Sibley(R) is from Waco and the former senator for the district.  

45.02% He led in McLennan County by a 62:24 on 8.6% turnout.

Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.

36.55% He led in Hood County with 68:15 on a 16.0% turnout.

The runoff is set for June 22.

 Legal experts express doubts about validity of ruling on state Senate candidate's eligibility  (http://www.wacotrib.com/news/Legal-experts-express-doubts-about-validity-of-ruling-on-state-Senate-candidates-eligibility.html)

An article in the Waco newspaper that indirectly questions Birdwell's eligibility.

After Birdwell was sworn in to fill the remainder of the current term, he was nominated by the county chairs for the full (two year term).  The Democrats then nominated somebody, and immediately sued to have Birdwell declared ineligible (to have standing they had to have a candidate).  The Fort Worth appeals court where the case had recused themselves, because they didn't have time to consider the case, and dumped it into the laps of the Dallas appeals court.  Since under the Constitution, the Senate has authority to judge the qualifications and elections of its members, and have already sworn him in, it is possible the judges could just tell the Democratic challenger to contest the election if he loses.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 11, 2010, 08:08:19 pm
Oh yeah, that special election for Maldonado's State Senate seat in California is next week.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on August 12, 2010, 04:36:43 pm
I believe there's a televised debate today or tomorrow.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 18, 2010, 06:34:04 am
Looks like the Republican won in California, by a 49-44 margin, about what the performance was in the "primary".


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Holmes on August 18, 2010, 08:56:37 am
Grooooooosssssssss.

Please let Watsonville not be in any district that touches SoCal after redistricting.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 02, 2010, 10:07:46 am
Guess we have to resurrect this thread; there are two special elections in Louisiana today, SD-2 and HD-5. Of course, there's no threat of a party change: four Democrats are running in the former, two Republicans are in the latter.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 16, 2010, 08:31:02 am
Time to resurrect the thread for reals: specials for the two state legislative seats vacated by victorious Republicans Robert Hurt (SD-19) and Morgan Griffith (HD-08) have been set for January 11. Both are pretty Republican seats, but Democrats are actually coughing up a decent candidate for Hurt's seat, a county supervisor. However, they don't have a candidate for the House district yet. It's a five-way race for the Republican nomination in SD-19, while only one has stepped up for HD-08 (and has been endorsed by Griffith), so he's probably going to sail into office.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on November 17, 2010, 03:07:49 am
December 14 for HD-44 (East of San Antonio) to replace Edmund Kuempel who died just after the election.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 17, 2010, 10:54:19 am
December 14 for HD-44 (East of San Antonio) to replace Edmund Kuempel who died just after the election.

do the democrats have any chance to pick it up???


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Brittain33 on November 17, 2010, 11:09:55 am
December 14 for HD-44 (East of San Antonio) to replace Edmund Kuempel who died just after the election.

do the democrats have any chance to pick it up???

McCain beat Obama by about 30 points in these three counties, FWIW.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 17, 2010, 05:45:14 pm
December 14 for HD-44 (East of San Antonio) to replace Edmund Kuempel who died just after the election.

do the democrats have any chance to pick it up???

McCain beat Obama by about 30 points in these three counties, FWIW.

so, no. thanks ;)


Title: Re: Special state legislative and local elections thread volume 1 (A-Aardvark)
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on November 18, 2010, 05:38:37 pm
Apparently there was a special election for the 38th Assembly district in New York during Tuesday's primary. Here are the results:

Michael Miller (D) - 2,730 (64.55%)
Donna Marie Caltabiano (R) - 1,499 (35.45%)

Here's hoping Mr. Miller's career doesn't end as ignominiously as his predecessor's:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/25/nyregion/25fraud.html

Thanks for the post.

Now, to put things in context.

In 2008 the Democrat nominee for this seat received more than three times the number of votes that the Republican nominee received, whereas in the special election this year, the Democrat nominee did not receive quite twice as many votes as the Republican nominee.

Well, in safe Democrat districts you can get away with such losses, but, in competitive districts, such loses can be disasterous.

ROFL

Have you not learned anything from trying to analyze these special election results CARL? THEY'RE IRRELEVANT. ALL OF THEM.

Irrelevant?!?

Hmm.

As our British posters could tell you, special elections are closely studied as harbingers of future elections.

What happened in the special elections seems to have been validated in the general elections this year.



Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Meeker on November 18, 2010, 07:27:04 pm
CARL, you're the only poster on this site that could take two months to respond to a post and have it still not make any sense. Congrats.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on November 19, 2010, 01:13:57 am
CARL, you're the only poster on this site that could take two months to respond to a post and have it still not make any sense. Congrats.

You really should learn to check dates.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Meeker on November 19, 2010, 01:55:33 am
CARL, you're the only poster on this site that could take two months to respond to a post and have it still not make any sense. Congrats.

You really should learn to check dates.

Oh ok, a year and two months and your post still doesn't make any sense. Further congratulations.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on November 19, 2010, 02:00:29 am
CARL, you're the only poster on this site that could take two months to respond to a post and have it still not make any sense. Congrats.

You really should learn to check dates.

Oh ok, a year and two months and your post still doesn't make any sense. Further congratulations.

Well, we've made some progress, so I'll try to use a very simple explanation as you still don't understand.

The poster to whom I responded asserted the special elections are meaningless.

I have previously noted that they frequently provide advance warning of what will happen in general elections.

As I noted in the response to which he responded, there was a well developed gtrend toward Republicans.

If you check, you will find the Republicans made massive gains in the state legislative elections in the general election in 2010.



Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Meeker on November 19, 2010, 02:09:11 am
Ok CARL, you win. I bow down to your superior electoral prognostication skills - always deeply rooted in facts and thoughtful consideration.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: jimrtex on December 14, 2010, 10:32:20 pm
December 14 for HD-44 (East of San Antonio) to replace Edmund Kuempel who died just after the election.

John Kuempel, the late Edmund Kuempel's son, was elected with 65.6% of the vote.  A Democrat managed a surprising 4th in the race.

John Kuempel REP              7,245 65.69%
Gary W. Inmon REP             1,123 10.18%
Myrna McLeroy REP             1,022  9.26%
Cheryl Dees Patterson DEM       689  6.24%
Robin R. Walker REP             544  4.93%
Daniel Rodriguez Andrade DEM    119  1.07%
Ron Avery    REP                 79  0.71%
Chris Burchell REP               73  0.66%
Jim Fish REP                     73  0.66%
Tony Gergely LIB                 62  0.56%


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on December 14, 2010, 11:09:35 pm
December 14 for HD-44 (East of San Antonio) to replace Edmund Kuempel who died just after the election.

John Kuempel, the late Edmund Kuempel's son, was elected with 65.6% of the vote.  A Democrat managed a surprising 4th in the race.

John Kuempel REP              7,245 65.69%
Gary W. Inmon REP             1,123 10.18%
Myrna McLeroy REP             1,022  9.26%
Cheryl Dees Patterson DEM       689  6.24%
Robin R. Walker REP             544  4.93%
Daniel Rodriguez Andrade DEM    119  1.07%
Ron Avery    REP                 79  0.71%
Chris Burchell REP               73  0.66%
Jim Fish REP                     73  0.66%
Tony Gergely LIB                 62  0.56%

What a nice tribute to his Dad.  

This win gives the Republicans a 101 to 49 edge in the Texas State House.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 27, 2010, 05:19:59 pm
Great news, Alvin Greene is back:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101227/ap_on_re_us/us_sc_house_greene

He's running for a South Carolina House seat that opened up because the incumbent died.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on December 27, 2010, 05:27:35 pm
Great news, Alvin Greene is back:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101227/ap_on_re_us/us_sc_house_greene

He's running for a South Carolina House seat that opened up because the incumbent died.

Is it a Dem one? If so, HELL YES!


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on December 27, 2010, 05:37:38 pm
I guess Obama dodged that bullet.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 27, 2010, 09:59:38 pm
Great news, Alvin Greene is back:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101227/ap_on_re_us/us_sc_house_greene

He's running for a South Carolina House seat that opened up because the incumbent died.

Is it a Dem one? If so, HELL YES!

Yeah, it is.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rob in cal on December 30, 2010, 11:05:42 pm
Next Tuesday I get to vote in our State Senate special election (Sacramento California area state senate seat, safe GOP I believe).  It will be the only thing on the ballot, so I'll be watching how quickly the voting goes at my precinct when I come in to vote.  Kind of like elections in most parts of the world where the legislative election is usually the only thing on the ballot.  There's two candidates on the ballot and thats it, should take upwards of 7 seconds to vote.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 04, 2011, 11:04:47 am
Pre-election fundraising reports for the two specials in Virginia next week:

SD-19

Bill Stanley (R) - $65k raised, $24k on hand
Hank Davis (D) - $52k raised, $14k on hand

HD-08

Greg Habeeb (R) - $138k raised, $67k on hand
Ginger Mumpower (D) - $27k raised, $3k on hand

Both districts are pretty Republican, but the Republicans nominated the worst candidate of the bunch in SD-19, so that one might at least be interesting.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 05, 2011, 03:59:43 pm
There were two elections yesterday, one in Iowa and one in California, both Republican holds.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on January 10, 2011, 09:09:08 pm
There were two elections yesterday, one in Iowa and one in California, both Republican holds.
Were The CA and IA elections State Senate or lower house?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 10, 2011, 09:55:24 pm
California was Senate, Iowa was House.

Tomorrow is the day of the two specials in Virginia. Nothing exciting is expected from either.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 11, 2011, 07:27:04 pm
Looks like easy holds for the Republicans; it's currently 60-40 in the Senate race (https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2011/AFDD4E8A-8A00-4941-A21C-3755CF177968/Unofficial/7_s.shtml) and 65-35 in the House race (https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2011/48F1BFBC-3FAA-47F7-9C2A-13D9D102B70A/Unofficial/8_s.shtml). Not unexpected, of course.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 12, 2011, 08:05:57 am
There were two specials in Mississippi as well, for Nunnelee and Palazzo's seats. Republicans held both (one outright, one is going to a runoff between two Republicans).


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on January 12, 2011, 10:49:17 pm
I think this gives Republicans a 27 to 25 edge in the MS State Senate.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 13, 2011, 08:09:38 am
I think this gives Republicans a 27 to 25 edge in the MS State Senate.

It's tied, but it doesn't really matter as there was a de facto Republican majority supported by some Democrats. Either way, there will probably be a few party switchers now.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on January 13, 2011, 08:26:20 am
I think this gives Republicans a 27 to 25 edge in the MS State Senate.

It's tied, but it doesn't really matter as there was a de facto Republican majority supported by some Democrats. Either way, there will probably be a few party switchers now.

Correct!

However, I suspect the most party changing this year will be in the State Senate.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 18, 2011, 10:07:05 pm
Special election in Minnesota House, 5B. Mark Dayton has appointed incumbent Tony Sertich, former Majority Leader and who was in line to become Speaker to chair the Iron Range Resources and Rehabilitation Board (Yes the acronym for that is IRRRB, awesome.) Sertich was mentioned as a possible challenger to Cravaack so this probably takes him out of the running. Primary is Feb 1st, general is Feb 15th.

Dayton won the seat 63-29, so obviously this one probably isn't going to be competitive, but the DFL primary should be interesting. Filing deadline has just passed, there are four Democrats running, one IP and one Republican (the same guy who lost to Sertich in November and got 33%.)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 19, 2011, 09:20:07 am
Another state Senate race in Iowa last night; Republican hold, unsurprisingly.

There's another Virginia House seat up on March 8, the 91st; Republican Tom Gear resigned due to complications from MS. Poquoson Mayor Gordon Helsel is the Republican nominee. He ran as an independent in 2009 and lost 48-33, with a Democrat in third at 19. Democrats might not run a candidate, since it's a heavily-Republican district and Helsel is pretty well-liked by everyone.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 23, 2011, 08:14:59 am
Two specials in Louisiana last night; D hold in a House seat (Cedric Richmond's) and an R pickup of a Senate seat held by a D-turned-I.

http://staticresults.sos.louisiana.gov/1222011_Legislative.html

Puts the Senate at a 19-19 tie with one vacancy, apparently. Who will be the first party-switcher to create a Republican majority?

Oh, and in the VA HD-91 special, nobody bothered to file, so Helsel is unopposed.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on February 02, 2011, 12:03:56 am
We nominated the liberal, who is also kind of cute (http://politicsinminnesota.com/files/2011/01/carly-melin.jpg) over the pro-life Moderate Hero in 5B. Good.

She's also only 25. The vacating incumbent held the seat for a decade and yet he's only 35 now. Weird district to be electing youngs. It's not a youthful place at all.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 02, 2011, 02:16:19 am
We nominated the liberal, who is also kind of cute (http://politicsinminnesota.com/files/2011/01/carly-melin.jpg) over the pro-life Moderate Hero in 5B. Good.


She isn't just cute. She is beautiful. :)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 02, 2011, 11:24:50 am
We nominated the liberal, who is also kind of cute (http://politicsinminnesota.com/files/2011/01/carly-melin.jpg) over the pro-life Moderate Hero in 5B. Good.

She's also only 25. The vacating incumbent held the seat for a decade and yet he's only 35 now. Weird district to be electing youngs. It's not a youthful place at all.

is she Briony Tallis, the little girl of "atonement"? haha...


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on February 02, 2011, 04:08:37 pm
We nominated the liberal, who is also kind of cute (http://politicsinminnesota.com/files/2011/01/carly-melin.jpg) over the pro-life Moderate Hero in 5B. Good.

She's also only 25. The vacating incumbent held the seat for a decade and yet he's only 35 now. Weird district to be electing youngs. It's not a youthful place at all.
She is kind of cute indeed, if the picture is an accurate reflection of reality.  When does this special election take place?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Kevinstat on February 02, 2011, 05:35:03 pm
We nominated the liberal, who is also kind of cute (http://politicsinminnesota.com/files/2011/01/carly-melin.jpg) over the pro-life Moderate Hero in 5B. Good.

She's also only 25. The vacating incumbent held the seat for a decade and yet he's only 35 now. Weird district to be electing youngs. It's not a youthful place at all.
She is kind of cute indeed, if the picture is an accurate reflection of reality.  When does this special election take place?

Special election in Minnesota House, 5B. Mark Dayton has appointed incumbent Tony Sertich, former Majority Leader and who was in line to become Speaker to chair the Iron Range Resources and Rehabilitation Board (Yes the acronym for that is IRRRB, awesome.) Sertich was mentioned as a possible challenger to Cravaack so this probably takes him out of the running. Primary is Feb 1st, general is Feb 15th.

Dayton won the seat 63-29, so obviously this one probably isn't going to be competitive, but the DFL primary should be interesting. Filing deadline has just passed, there are four Democrats running, one IP and one Republican (the same guy who lost to Sertich in November and got 33%.)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on February 02, 2011, 05:43:24 pm
We nominated the liberal, who is also kind of cute (http://politicsinminnesota.com/files/2011/01/carly-melin.jpg) over the pro-life Moderate Hero in 5B. Good.

She's also only 25. The vacating incumbent held the seat for a decade and yet he's only 35 now. Weird district to be electing youngs. It's not a youthful place at all.
She is kind of cute indeed, if the picture is an accurate reflection of reality.  When does this special election take place?

Special election in Minnesota House, 5B. Mark Dayton has appointed incumbent Tony Sertich, former Majority Leader and who was in line to become Speaker to chair the Iron Range Resources and Rehabilitation Board (Yes the acronym for that is IRRRB, awesome.) Sertich was mentioned as a possible challenger to Cravaack so this probably takes him out of the running. Primary is Feb 1st, general is Feb 15th.

Dayton won the seat 63-29, so obviously this one probably isn't going to be competitive, but the DFL primary should be interesting. Filing deadline has just passed, there are four Democrats running, one IP and one Republican (the same guy who lost to Sertich in November and got 33%.)

Carly Melin doesn't look quite as cute in this article:

http://www.fox21online.com/news/minnesota-republicans-question-melins-residency (http://www.fox21online.com/news/minnesota-republicans-question-melins-residency).


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 03, 2011, 07:21:36 am
The primary for the SC House seat where folk hero Alvin Greene is running is on the 15th.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on February 03, 2011, 11:39:05 am
Remember that State House race here in Massachusetts where the Republican defeated a Democratic incumbent by 1 vote? Well, a judge ruled that a discarded ballot should be counted, giving us a 6,587 to 6,587 tie.

It's now up to the State House to decide how to break the tie. The expected route is for a re-vote rather than run-off, and the Secretary of State seems to believe it should be open to all candidates, not just Rep. Alicea (D) and Peter Durant (R).

A date has yet to be set.

http://www.telegram.com/article/20110202/NEWS/110209920/1116


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: ag on February 03, 2011, 10:04:29 pm
So, what's the House composition now? 127D: 32R: 1 Vacant?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on February 03, 2011, 10:12:20 pm
So, what's the House composition now? 127D: 32R: 1 Vacant?
No, from the cited article, it's pretty clear that the Democrat gets to keep the seat until this is finally resolved:  "Mr. Alicea will continue to represent the district as a holdover."  So, 128D, 32R, for now.

Who knows, maybe the committee will decide he just keeps the seat as in a boxing championship where in a draw, the incumbent retains the title.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Lunar on February 10, 2011, 08:03:20 pm
The son Congressman Ed Towns got appointed into the administration of Andrew Cuomo, opening up an Assembly District in East New York.  A Vito Lopez ally, Erik Martin Dilan (son of a State Senator), is favored: http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/3225030815/councilman-erik-martin-dilan-favored-in-special


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Snowguy716 on February 10, 2011, 10:54:24 pm
Here's Carly Melin in her obligatory hunting outfit, complete with doggy.

(http://a4.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc4/163490_135741343155486_135737039822583_242714_7412772_n.jpg)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Lunar on February 11, 2011, 10:14:33 am
The son Congressman Ed Towns got appointed into the administration of Andrew Cuomo, opening up an Assembly District in East New York.  A Vito Lopez ally, Erik Martin Dilan (son of a State Senator), is favored: http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/3225030815/councilman-erik-martin-dilan-favored-in-special

Actually, another one of the Towns family, maybe Deirdra Towns, could take the seat as well.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 11, 2011, 10:43:45 am
The son Congressman Ed Towns got appointed into the administration of Andrew Cuomo, opening up an Assembly District in East New York.  A Vito Lopez ally, Erik Martin Dilan (son of a State Senator), is favored: http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/3225030815/councilman-erik-martin-dilan-favored-in-special

Actually, another one of the Towns family, maybe Deirdra Towns, could take the seat as well.

Are they going to decide it over the dinner table?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on February 11, 2011, 11:23:24 am
Here is a handy list of upcoming (and recent) state special elections:
http://www.statenet.com/resources/election_calendar.php (http://www.statenet.com/resources/election_calendar.php)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rob in cal on February 13, 2011, 02:25:27 pm
Looks like the death last year of our state senator will actually lead to 4 extra elections.

Election 1, held to coincide with the 2010 general election, was the first round/primary, with the top two going on the runoff.

Election 2, the runoff held last month, won by our sitting state assemblyman.

Election 3, we now have a vacancy due to said assemblyman's victory for the state senate seat, with the first round/ jungle primary to be held I believe in late March or April.

Election 4, with the likely result of no majority won in the first round, we will probably have a runoff for the assembly seat held I'd guess in June.

The turnout will be pathetic, but its an interesting experience looking at a ballot with just one race on it, similar to a parliamentary style election.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on February 14, 2011, 06:08:42 pm
The turnout will be pathetic, but its an interesting experience looking at a ballot with just one race on it, similar to a parliamentary style election.

I had that one time. For a special mayoral election. It was non-partisan though.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 15, 2011, 09:33:21 pm
So far, out of 68 votes cast, Alvin Greene has no votes. (http://scvotes.org/2011/02/15/state_house_district_64_democratic_primary)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 15, 2011, 09:39:51 pm
And that sexpot of a DFLer is winning by 30 points in Minnesota. (http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20110215/ElecRslts.asp?M=LG&LD=05B)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 15, 2011, 09:58:55 pm
So far, out of 68 votes cast, Alvin Greene has no votes. (http://scvotes.org/2011/02/15/state_house_district_64_democratic_primary)

He ended up with 37 (0.9%).


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Snowguy716 on February 16, 2011, 01:15:36 am
Final totals in the MN House 5B race:

Democratic-Farmer-Labor    CARLY MELIN    4525   60.41%
Republican    PAUL JACOBSON    2658   35.48%
Independence    CYNTHIA KAFUT-HAGEN    298   3.98%

A solid win for a first timer 25 year old nobody against the GOP candidate that just ran in November's elections.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on February 16, 2011, 01:31:57 am
If that part of Minnesota can elect youngs I don't know why we don't. I suppose Margaret Anderson-Kelliher was only 29 when she was first elected to her district and her successor isn't that old either.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on February 19, 2011, 09:25:59 pm
initial results from Louisiana State Senate district 26 special election have Granger leading by 9%.
Nathan Granger (D) 54.45% 1076
Jonathan Perry (R) 45.55% 900

http://staticresults.sos.louisiana.gov/02192011/02192011_Legislative.html (http://staticresults.sos.louisiana.gov/02192011/02192011_Legislative.html)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 19, 2011, 09:43:39 pm
Shaping up to be a pretty easy Dem hold, actually. Granger is winning in Vermillion, the biggest part of the district. I love Southern regionalism.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on February 19, 2011, 09:52:07 pm
You can't make early calls on these Southern races without knowing exactly what's in precinct-wise. Even though it's Acadia.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 19, 2011, 09:55:38 pm
I spoke too soon, it's down to a 25-vote lead.

Not that it really matters, since the Senate's going Republican at some point this year.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on February 19, 2011, 10:00:38 pm
As of 8:59 PM:
61 of 106 precincts reporting

Nathan Granger (D) 48.08% 5970
Jonathan Perry (R) 51.92% 6447

Yes, this is for control of the State Senate.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 19, 2011, 10:03:59 pm
That's funny, now Granger is winning in Acadia (though only by a handful of votes) while losing in Vermillion.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Nichlemn on February 19, 2011, 10:06:41 pm
I spoke too soon, it's down to a 25-vote lead.

Not that it really matters, since the Senate's going Republican at some point this year.

Isn't this important for redistricting?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on February 19, 2011, 10:10:26 pm
I spoke too soon, it's down to a 25-vote lead.

Not that it really matters, since the Senate's going Republican at some point this year.

Isn't this important for redistricting?

It'll be 5-1 in redistricting - maybe it makes a difference for who gets the shaft.

Anyway, there's 10 precincts left and Perry's up by 441 votes.  We'll see.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 19, 2011, 10:15:21 pm
Everything's in, and Perry wins by 688 votes.

It doesn't really matter for redistricting, since the Congressional map is going to be 5-1, and the Democrats are screwed when it comes to the state legislature. They're going to lose an entire Senate seat in New Orleans.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on February 19, 2011, 10:16:25 pm
Looks like the Republicans have taken over the LA State Senate, 20 to 19.

State Senator -- 26th Senatorial District
All 106 precincts reporting
Nathan Granger (D) 48.25%  9,491
Jonathan Perry (R) 51.75%  10,179


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mr.Phips on February 19, 2011, 10:17:28 pm
Another fishy late shift in a Louisiana election.  The same thing happened in LA-04 two years ago.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on February 19, 2011, 10:20:15 pm
This leaves the Democrats holding both houses in Arkansas, the State Senate in Virginia, the State House in Kentucky and Mississippi.  All else is Republican in Dixie.

Also, here is the nation-wide breakout:
26 Republican-controlled Legislatures
15 Democratic-controlled Legislatures
8 Split Legislatures
1 Officially non-partisan (Nebraska)
50 Total


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Nichlemn on February 19, 2011, 10:32:55 pm
I spoke too soon, it's down to a 25-vote lead.

Not that it really matters, since the Senate's going Republican at some point this year.

Isn't this important for redistricting?

It'll be 5-1 in redistricting - maybe it makes a difference for who gets the shaft.

Anyway, there's 10 precincts left and Perry's up by 441 votes.  We'll see.

But they could still have bargained for a map that would give them opportunities to win open seats in good years.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 19, 2011, 10:37:31 pm
I'm pretty sure good years aren't going to be happening for Democrats in Louisiana anytime soon.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 19, 2011, 10:38:31 pm
I'm pretty sure good years aren't going to be happening for Democrats in Louisiana anytime soon.

Not until... you know.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Nichlemn on February 19, 2011, 10:45:49 pm
I'm pretty sure good years aren't going to be happening for Democrats in Louisiana anytime soon.

Obama won't be President after 2017 at the latest. Democrats won LA-03 as an open seat in 2004, won a special election for LA-06 in 2008 and came very close to winning LA-04 in 2008. These weren't results with beloved old Dixiecrats, these were open seats. I doubt Louisiana has really trended away from being to elect Democrats in open seats to having absolutely no chance in just a few years.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on February 20, 2011, 01:33:03 am
Another fishy late shift in a Louisiana election.  The same thing happened in LA-04 two years ago.

Fishy?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mississippi Political Freak on February 20, 2011, 09:32:17 am
From the results of Louisiana's SD-26 Special election, I'd like to raise a few questions on the voting behaviors of Louisiana's Cajuns:

1. It seems the tactic by the GOP campaign team tarring the Dem candidate through alleged association of his campaign manager with OFA (Organizing for America) works superbly in this race.  I just wonder why why President Obama is so toxic among Cajuns?

2. Why are Cajuns trending sharply to the GOP?  Is it heavily about their anti-abortion beliefs?

3. My impression is that Cajuns are historically populist on economic issues.  Are they trending more pro-business instead, and why?

Thanks!


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Hash on February 20, 2011, 10:05:25 am
I just wonder why why President Obama is so toxic among Cajuns?

He's black.

Quote
2. Why are Cajuns trending sharply to the GOP?  Is it heavily about their anti-abortion beliefs?

The President is a black liberal named Hussein from Chicago.

Quote
3. My impression is that Cajuns are historically populist on economic issues.  Are they trending more pro-business instead, and why?

Since when have Southerners voted based on their economic interests?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mississippi Political Freak on February 20, 2011, 10:16:32 am
At least Louisiana (especially the Cajuns) still voted Democratic throughout the 1990's.  And we cannot easily lump Cajuns with other Southerners of the Anglo-Scottish ancestry.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on February 20, 2011, 12:52:24 pm
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0211/Democrats_lose_another_one_in_the_South.html?showall


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 20, 2011, 02:17:02 pm
At least Louisiana (especially the Cajuns) still voted Democratic throughout the 1990's.  And we cannot easily lump Cajuns with other Southerners of the Anglo-Scottish ancestry.

Not when the candidate was black. This map is from 1995:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/img.php?type=map&year=1995&fips=22&st=LA&off=5&elect=0)

That's what happens when a black runs in Cajun country.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mississippi Political Freak on February 20, 2011, 04:45:23 pm
At least Louisiana (especially the Cajuns) still voted Democratic throughout the 1990's.  And we cannot easily lump Cajuns with other Southerners of the Anglo-Scottish ancestry.

Not when the candidate was black. This map is from 1995:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/img.php?type=map&year=1995&fips=22&st=LA&off=5&elect=0)

That's what happens when a black runs in Cajun country.

So do you imply that Cajuns can be rather racist folks in terms of their voting behavior?  Thanks!


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 20, 2011, 05:06:32 pm
They are Americans. They are White. They are not flaming pinkos. They vote GOP less than 100.000% of the time. QED.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on February 20, 2011, 05:37:34 pm
Cameron Parish, LA 2008:

President:
McCain 81.44%
Obama 16.16%

Senate:
Landrieu 50.30%
Kennedy 46.92%


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 20, 2011, 05:50:57 pm
Cameron Parish, LA 2008:

President:
McCain 81.44%
Obama 16.16%

Senate:
Landrieu 50.30%
Kennedy 46.92%

LOL


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on February 20, 2011, 07:13:23 pm
Wikipedia has a listing for special state legislative elections.  Someone seems to keep it fairly up to date, though the individual links to the actual races do not necessarily cover that special election.

http://www.ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/State_legislative_special_elections,_2011 (http://www.ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/State_legislative_special_elections,_2011) 

It looks like Tuesday is a busy day for filling vacancies in Connecticut.  I gather the vacancies were mostly a result of the new governor appointing members of the legislature to positions in his administration.  His timing of announcing proposed tax increases might be interesting to see for an impact on the results. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: homelycooking on February 20, 2011, 08:45:03 pm
Wikipedia has a listing for special state legislative elections.  Someone seems to keep it fairly up to date, though the individual links to the actual races do not necessarily cover that special election.

http://www.ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/State_legislative_special_elections,_2011 (http://www.ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/State_legislative_special_elections,_2011) 

It looks like Tuesday is a busy day for filling vacancies in Connecticut.  I gather the vacancies were mostly a result of the new governor appointing members of the legislature to positions in his administration.  His timing of announcing proposed tax increases might be interesting to see for an impact on the results. 

You're exactly right about the reason for the vacancies. Most of the special elections on Tuesday will happen in solid Democratic territory like West Hartford and Bridgeport and thus will be like watching paint dry. The most interesting ones will be in the 13th Senate District, where the incumbent was arrested for larceny and resigned, and in the 25th House District where New Britain's mayor is running for the GOP and providing some major star power.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 20, 2011, 09:04:38 pm
And Janet Peckinpaugh makes another run for office in the 36th, you can't forget her.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: homelycooking on February 20, 2011, 09:46:58 pm
Absolutely. That's a tough district for the GOP due to Chester and Deep River, but Peckinpaugh should be able to at least make it close.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on February 21, 2011, 02:34:54 am
The special election was (even in the short term) probably irrelevant regarding Republican control of the LA State Senate. Given another few months some conservative Democrat scared about redistricting would've switched parties to save his own seat, especially once the chamber actually started talking about redistricting.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Nichlemn on February 21, 2011, 07:29:38 am
I wonder how many party switchers we'll see in the LA State Senate before November.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on February 21, 2011, 11:12:41 am
I'm pretty sure good years aren't going to be happening for Democrats in Louisiana anytime soon.

Not until... you know.

Yep - which means that the goal of the State Republican party should be to eliminate Democrats from all levels of government (down to dogcatcher) while the opportunity is ripe. 

Witness what the Texas Republican part did in 2010.  They were helped by the straight-ticket, but basically what they did was emphasize voting straight-ticket Republican to all rural county voters.  As a result, any Democrat at any level of office in one of these rural counties who was not opposed got defeated, and a number of other Democrats got scared and switched after the elections.  This prevents local Democrats from rising up the ranks to get State Rep seats (as they have in the past) and possibly further, should the time be ripe.  I have to assume that 2012 and if necessary 2014 will be a continuation of that strategy if available.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Torie on February 21, 2011, 11:35:17 am
Something approaching the null set as to a competent bench is one of the problems that bedevils the GOP in California come to think of it.  California in some ways, is sort of the other side of the Texas coin for the GOP. On one side of the coin is Pubbie heaven, and on the other side is Pubbie hell.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on February 21, 2011, 12:36:13 pm
Something approaching the null set as to a competent bench is one of the problems that bedevils the GOP in California come to think of it.  California in some ways, is sort of the other side of the Texas coin for the GOP. On one side of the coin is Pubbie heaven, and on the other side is Pubbie hell.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=121854.msg2743752#msg2743752


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Brittain33 on February 21, 2011, 01:01:41 pm
This is why Republicans have such trouble getting elected in Massachusetts, too, and you have selectmen from towns and random activists often running for high-level positions on behalf of the GOP.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on February 21, 2011, 02:04:51 pm
I kind of figured out the big problem the GOP has in Massachusetts awhile back, the state is geographically built so that no areas prone to strong Republicanism can develop. It's not really that the state is so Dem as you'd expect at least one seat out of ten to go Republican in a 60% Democratic state, Republicans do win parts of Wayne County after all and would have at least one safe seat if split into 10 districts. We're comparably to Massachusetts at the Hennepin County level but if we had partisan elections for county commisioner 2/7 of our seats would be safe GOP, another one would be a pure swing seat. But all around Boston you have some urban and often heavily minority areas scattered instead of exurbs. Got to the northeast and you enter Lynn and then Salem, there are some GOP pockets north of there but because of those cities will always be outvoted. Straight north takes you to Lawrence, and you have to go to New Hampshire to find the real exurbs. There are no exurbs to the west because of Framingham, and no exurbs to the west of there because then you're in the Worcester area. And if you head south you'll soon leave the Boston suburbs and instead end up in the area of New Bedford, Fall River and Providence, RI. To the southeast though with no real urban area you have one of the few reliably GOP areas in the state. But there simply is no place in the state where you can get lots of heavily Republican exurban type areas that aren't outvoted by somewhere else. And since the western rural part of the state and now the Cape are heavily Dem, there's just not much of an opportunity anywhere.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Torie on February 21, 2011, 03:59:13 pm
Good points BRTD, but in what other states other than perhaps uber Green Vermont do the Dems carry the upper middle class WASP vote; not that that particular cohort matters that much in Mass, but it kind of gives you the idea that it is a bit more than just where different kinds of folks are parked across the state, doesn't it?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on February 21, 2011, 06:22:37 pm
Good points BRTD, but in what other states other than perhaps uber Green Vermont do the Dems carry the upper middle class WASP vote; not that that particular cohort matters that much in Mass, but it kind of gives you the idea that it is a bit more than just where different kinds of folks are parked across the state, doesn't it?

Uh, New York? Look at Westchester County. Also true in suburban Philly, some places in Maryland and lots of places in Connecticut. I've never really managed to pin down the difference between the still Republican very affluent parts of Connecticut and latte liberal Dem areas though.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mississippi Political Freak on February 21, 2011, 09:02:38 pm
I'm pretty sure good years aren't going to be happening for Democrats in Louisiana anytime soon.

Not until... you know.

Yep - which means that the goal of the State Republican party should be to eliminate Democrats from all levels of government (down to dogcatcher) while the opportunity is ripe. 

Witness what the Texas Republican part did in 2010.  They were helped by the straight-ticket, but basically what they did was emphasize voting straight-ticket Republican to all rural county voters.  As a result, any Democrat at any level of office in one of these rural counties who was not opposed got defeated, and a number of other Democrats got scared and switched after the elections.  This prevents local Democrats from rising up the ranks to get State Rep seats (as they have in the past) and possibly further, should the time be ripe.  I have to assume that 2012 and if necessary 2014 will be a continuation of that strategy if available.

It's so sad that electoral politics these days seems to be more about political domination through the destruction of the opposing party than positive advocacy for the platforms of a candidate's own party. 

I have the question though, why are the state-level Republicans seems to be more power-hungry and less concerned about governance and more preoccupied by political dominance than their Democratic compatriots?

As another side-note stemming from this response, after seeing through the promotion of straight-ticket voting by the Texas GOP, I really find it deplorable to allow voters to vote straight-ticket under any circumstances, as this provides a convenient excuse for voters to place partisanship over the merits of individual candidates and whether they are better fits to particular positions.  This is a blatant insult to the ideals of democracy, under which voter are supposed to make well-informed choices.  I therefore strongly recommend straight ticket should be abolished nationally. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Torie on February 21, 2011, 09:25:29 pm
Good points BRTD, but in what other states other than perhaps uber Green Vermont do the Dems carry the upper middle class WASP vote; not that that particular cohort matters that much in Mass, but it kind of gives you the idea that it is a bit more than just where different kinds of folks are parked across the state, doesn't it?

Uh, New York? Look at Westchester County. Also true in suburban Philly, some places in Maryland and lots of places in Connecticut. I've never really managed to pin down the difference between the still Republican very affluent parts of Connecticut and latte liberal Dem areas though.

Maybe in Maryland in Montgomery County (Potomac?), but otherwise no. Those precincts that you think are upper middle class WASP have a heavy Jewish plurality. So you need to cull those folks out. Interestingly, my vague impression is that both the upper middle class to rich WASP and Jews tend to avoid the upper middle class to rich heavily Catholic areas of Westchester, to wit Eastchester.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 21, 2011, 11:32:17 pm
Those precincts that you think are upper middle class WASP have a heavy Jewish plurality. So you need to cull those folks out.

Think you might want to consider rephrasing that, slightly.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on February 22, 2011, 12:10:08 am
Good points BRTD, but in what other states other than perhaps uber Green Vermont do the Dems carry the upper middle class WASP vote; not that that particular cohort matters that much in Mass, but it kind of gives you the idea that it is a bit more than just where different kinds of folks are parked across the state, doesn't it?

Uh, New York? Look at Westchester County. Also true in suburban Philly, some places in Maryland and lots of places in Connecticut. I've never really managed to pin down the difference between the still Republican very affluent parts of Connecticut and latte liberal Dem areas though.

Maybe in Maryland in Montgomery County (Potomac?), but otherwise no. Those precincts that you think are upper middle class WASP have a heavy Jewish plurality. So you need to cull those folks out. Interestingly, my vague impression is that both the upper middle class to rich WASP and Jews tend to avoid the upper middle class to rich heavily Catholic areas of Westchester, to wit Eastchester.

Uh, Connecticut? Look at the exit poll and how Obama overwhelmingly won Protestants there. Hey maybe that's it, the Protestant and Jewish upper class areas vote Democratic and the Catholic ones still have a socially conservative tinge and are more open to Republicans. Maybe Connecticut is my perfect state. :)

And Montco in Maryland does have a large Jewish population, but I'd be shocked if it was a plurality. You also missed Howard County. And there's no way there's a Jewish plurality in suburban Philly. For that matter there's also NOVA.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Napoleon on February 22, 2011, 12:31:59 am
Good points BRTD, but in what other states other than perhaps uber Green Vermont do the Dems carry the upper middle class WASP vote; not that that particular cohort matters that much in Mass, but it kind of gives you the idea that it is a bit more than just where different kinds of folks are parked across the state, doesn't it?

Uh, New York? Look at Westchester County. Also true in suburban Philly, some places in Maryland and lots of places in Connecticut. I've never really managed to pin down the difference between the still Republican very affluent parts of Connecticut and latte liberal Dem areas though.

Maybe in Maryland in Montgomery County (Potomac?), but otherwise no. Those precincts that you think are upper middle class WASP have a heavy Jewish plurality. So you need to cull those folks out. Interestingly, my vague impression is that both the upper middle class to rich WASP and Jews tend to avoid the upper middle class to rich heavily Catholic areas of Westchester, to wit Eastchester.

Uh, Connecticut? Look at the exit poll and how Obama overwhelmingly won Protestants there. Hey maybe that's it, the Protestant and Jewish upper class areas vote Democratic and the Catholic ones still have a socially conservative tinge and are more open to Republicans. Maybe Connecticut is my perfect state. :)
You have your working class Catholics in places like Waterbury and they are the more socially conservative ones but if we're still talking about the wealthier Connecticut Republicans they are in places like Himes' district and aren't very Republican anymore. That area is pretty comparable to Westchester in New York. Many Italians in Connecticut are religious and socially conservative but my entire family is very liberal. Demographically, CT can only get more Democratic.
I don't foresee any seats switching partisan hands tomorrow.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on February 22, 2011, 12:43:44 am
I'm thinking of places like New Canaan and Darien.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: homelycooking on February 22, 2011, 08:51:13 am
You have your working class Catholics in places like Waterbury and they are the more socially conservative ones but if we're still talking about the wealthier Connecticut Republicans they are in places like Himes' district and aren't very Republican anymore. That area is pretty comparable to Westchester in New York. Many Italians in Connecticut are religious and socially conservative but my entire family is very liberal. Demographically, CT can only get more Democratic.
I don't foresee any seats switching partisan hands tomorrow.

I think one will, and maybe two. The House seat in New Britain, the House seat in Chester/Essex and the Senate seat in Meriden have GOP candidates with fair shots at winning.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Torie on February 22, 2011, 10:38:40 am
By plurality BRTD I meant a substantial minority. I misused the word!  :(

If you can find a poll of upper middle class WASPS let me know. A poll of Protestants won't cut it - even white Protestants. White Protestants are a rather variegated bunch in a host of ways.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on February 22, 2011, 02:24:55 pm
FWIW, Gov. Malloy has conceded that the GOP will win "some" of the seats up for election. Republicans have some good candidates in seats, so it'd seem the planets are aligning, so to speak.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 22, 2011, 03:12:12 pm
I'm guessing SD-13 might flip; it was pretty close at the gubernatorial level, and the incumbent only won 58-42 last year. The House seats don't seem particularly important, since the Democrats have a much larger majority there than in the Senate.

Edit: For the House seats, best odds are probably HD-36, 99, and/or 101 flipping.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on February 22, 2011, 04:21:49 pm
Anyone know of good websites to follow the results in Connecticut and the Missouri State Senate race tonight?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: homelycooking on February 22, 2011, 04:31:33 pm
I'm guessing SD-13 might flip; it was pretty close at the gubernatorial level, and the incumbent only won 58-42 last year. The House seats don't seem particularly important, since the Democrats have a much larger majority there than in the Senate.

Edit: For the House seats, best odds are probably HD-36, 99, and/or 101 flipping.

The incumbent in SD-13 not only won by a small margin, but also was recently arrested for larceny.

I give HD-36 about a 55% chance of flipping. HD-25 might be surprising because of the popular GOP candidate. I give the edge to the Democrat in HD-101 because Madison has had a massive swing over the past decade to Democrats. Same with HD-99 in East Haven. The other two are so Democratic they're not worth mentioning.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Napoleon on February 22, 2011, 04:35:57 pm
You have your working class Catholics in places like Waterbury and they are the more socially conservative ones but if we're still talking about the wealthier Connecticut Republicans they are in places like Himes' district and aren't very Republican anymore. That area is pretty comparable to Westchester in New York. Many Italians in Connecticut are religious and socially conservative but my entire family is very liberal. Demographically, CT can only get more Democratic.
I don't foresee any seats switching partisan hands tomorrow.

I think one will, and maybe two. The House seat in New Britain, the House seat in Chester/Essex and the Senate seat in Meriden have GOP candidates with fair shots at winning.

Peckinpaugh (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQCQYFljkuA) is the only one I can see winning but I still don't believe it will happen. We shall see.

FWIW, Gov. Malloy has conceded that the GOP will win "some" of the seats up for election. Republicans have some good candidates in seats, so it'd seem the planets are aligning, so to speak.

Malloy is a moron and this is just preemptive damage control. It is, after all, his fault if we lose any seats. Still, it's not like a loss or two does much damage to our majorities.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Napoleon on February 22, 2011, 07:49:07 pm
Polls will be closing in ten minutes, I'll try to post results as soon as I start getting them. :)

Low turnout. (http://blogs.courant.com/capitol_watch/2011/02/low-voter-turnout-reported-in.html)

Results will be coming in. (http://www.courant.com/news/politics/special-elections/)



Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Napoleon on February 22, 2011, 09:08:36 pm
Republicans picked up SD-13. Low turnout can do that.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 22, 2011, 09:09:45 pm
Looks like the Republicans picked up SD-13 and HD-101, while the Dems have held SD-06, HD-20, HD-25, and HD-36. Still no word on the other three.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Napoleon on February 22, 2011, 09:13:05 pm
HD-36 was pretty close however.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: homelycooking on February 22, 2011, 09:18:55 pm
Low turnout not a shocker. SD-13 makes sense - everyone, Dems included had the bad taste of larceny in their mouths. SD-06 looks close but the Democrat has the lead - I guess Stewart only has so much strength in his hometown. Peckinpaugh's political career is done. If she can't win her home district in the state House, she can't be trusted with anything by the GOP.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 22, 2011, 09:25:49 pm
HD-99 also fell to the Republicans.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Napoleon on February 22, 2011, 09:27:04 pm
I woke up thinking this was going to be a good day. :(
It's Malloy's fault though. His Republican budget is very unpopular here.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 22, 2011, 09:28:32 pm
Now the Courant is saying the Democrats held 5 of the 6 House seats, so I guess the 101st didn't go Republican?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 22, 2011, 09:39:19 pm
SD-27 stayed Dem, so it looks like the Republicans ended up with SD-13 and one or both of HD-99 and HD-101.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 22, 2011, 09:49:34 pm
Okay, now I'm hearing the 99th stayed Dem, so it was just the 101st that went Republican.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on February 22, 2011, 10:37:42 pm
Democrats retained Missouri State Senate District 9:

State Senator - District 9    Precincts Reporting 64 of 64
   Curls, Shalonn (Kiki)  DEM 11,594  83.5% 
   Wood, Nola  REP 2,298  16.5% 
Total Votes   13,892 

This makes the Missouri State Senate 26 R, 8 D.

In Connecticut, I believe the line-up is as follows:
State Senate:  22 D, 14R
House:  99R, 52D.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Kevinstat on February 22, 2011, 10:55:52 pm
Democrats retained Missouri State Senate District 9:

State Senator - District 9    Precincts Reporting 64 of 64
   Curls, Shalonn (Kiki)  DEM 11,594  83.5% 
   Wood, Nola  REP 2,298  16.5% 
Total Votes   13,892 

Is that district in St. Louis (the city, not the county) or Kansas City?  It would seem so from the result.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: MaxQue on February 22, 2011, 11:03:07 pm
Democrats retained Missouri State Senate District 9:

State Senator - District 9    Precincts Reporting 64 of 64
   Curls, Shalonn (Kiki)  DEM 11,594  83.5% 
   Wood, Nola  REP 2,298  16.5% 
Total Votes   13,892 

Is that district in St. Louis (the city, not the county) or Kansas City?  It would seem so from the result.

Kansas City.

http://www.senate.mo.gov/09info/members/maps/district_09.pdf (http://www.senate.mo.gov/09info/members/maps/district_09.pdf)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: homelycooking on February 22, 2011, 11:07:34 pm
The Courant says this as their final result:

SEN 06: DEM Hold: Gerratana 52% over Stewart
SEN 13: REP Gain from DEM: Suzio 58% over Bruenn
SEN 27: DEM Hold: Leone 53% over Kolenberg

HSE 20: DEM Hold: Verrengia 64% over Hoffman
HSE 25: DEM Hold: Sanchez 99%
HSE 36: DEM Hold: Miller 52% over Peckinpaugh
HSE 99: DEM Hold: Albis 52% over Monaco
HSE 101: REP Gain from DEM: Kokoruda 58% over Walker
HSE 126: DEM Hold: Stallworth 36% over others

Turnout was so low and the vote so fractured in 126 (Bridgeport) that a petitioning candidate was nearly elected.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on February 22, 2011, 11:24:38 pm
Where are SD-13 and HD-101 located?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: cinyc on February 22, 2011, 11:52:00 pm
Where are SD-13 and HD-101 located?

SD-13: Part of Cheshire, Meriden, Middlefield, part of Middletown (I-91/691 Corridor in between New Haven and Hartford)
HD-101: Part of Guilford, Madison (Shoreline, east of New Haven)

If WTNH's breakdown is correct (http://www.wtnh.com/dpp/news/elections/connecticut-special-election-results), votes on the Working Families Party line put the Democrat over the top in HD-99 (Part of East Haven)



Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: homelycooking on February 23, 2011, 08:05:15 am
Blast the Working Families Party. An organization that only endorses and does not run candidates of its own is a pressure group, not a political party.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Napoleon on February 23, 2011, 06:34:19 pm
Blast the Working Families Party. An organization that only endorses and does not run candidates of its own is a pressure group, not a political party.

So what's the problem? It's a good thing they aren't running candidates against Democrats. Look at all the problems caused for Republicans by the Conservative Party in New York.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: homelycooking on February 23, 2011, 07:01:55 pm
Blast the Working Families Party. An organization that only endorses and does not run candidates of its own is a pressure group, not a political party.

So what's the problem? It's a good thing they aren't running candidates against Democrats. Look at all the problems caused for Republicans by the Conservative Party in New York.

I don't see it that way. Sure, maybe cross-endorsing allows parties to lend, borrow and steal little fractions of the vote and be able to say to Democrats/Republicans, "See, if only you were nicer to us you could have won this or that election", but it just seems like an underhanded and corporatistic way to run politics.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on February 23, 2011, 11:23:02 pm
Another party switcher in the South:

As of Feb 17th, Republicans control the Mississippi State Senate 27R - 24D - 1Vacancy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ezell_Lee (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ezell_Lee)

Also of possible interest, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_State_Senate (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_State_Senate)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on February 24, 2011, 02:46:21 am
Another party switcher in the South:

As of Feb 17th, Republicans control the Mississippi State Senate 27R - 24D - 1Vacancy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ezell_Lee (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ezell_Lee)

Also of possible interest, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_State_Senate (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_State_Senate)

Re: 3 elected Mississippi Democrats switch to GOP
« Reply #3 on: December 29, 2010, 02:00:45 am »    

This is just the start.

With election in 2011, expect more Mississippi elected elected officials to jump off the sinking ship of the Democratic party.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 24, 2011, 03:28:16 am
Another party switcher in the South:

As of Feb 17th, Republicans control the Mississippi State Senate 27R - 24D - 1Vacancy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ezell_Lee (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ezell_Lee)

Also of possible interest, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_State_Senate (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_State_Senate)

Re: 3 elected Mississippi Democrats switch to GOP
« Reply #3 on: December 29, 2010, 02:00:45 am »    

This is just the start.

With election in 2011, expect more Mississippi elected elected officials to jump off the sinking ship of the Democratic party.

Chill out dude. The Democratic ship has sunk in Mississippi since 1964.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on March 01, 2011, 10:03:09 pm
Has anyone seen any election returns on these special elections tonight?
March 1, 2011
Florida
Florida Senate District 33   
Democratic Candidate: Oscar Braynon
Republican Candidate: Joe Celestin 
 
Mississippi
Mississippi Senate District 12   
Gwendolyn McClure
Dorothy Walls
Derrick Simmons
Note: In Mississippi special elections, no party ID appears on the ballot (all are Democrats). 

Maine
Maine House District 11   
Democratic Candidate: Deanna House 
Republican Candidate: Beth Turner
Phillip Merletti (Write-In) 
 





Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 01, 2011, 10:21:21 pm
Florida:

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/Enight.asP

74-26 for the Dem.

No idea for the other two, since neither state reports election returns on election night. Your best bet is to find a local paper/TV station that has the results.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 01, 2011, 10:38:27 pm
The Republican won in Maine:

http://new.bangordailynews.com/2011/03/01/politics/house-concedes-to-turner-in-special-district-11-election/


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rob in cal on March 08, 2011, 08:17:20 pm
Today is California Assembly District 4.  I just voted, number 33 in my precinct at 5 in the afternoon.  A very low turnout.  Turns out my neighbor, (about six houses away) is a front runner to make the runoff.  It may be a runoff between him, John Allard, and the former assemblyman's wife, Beth Gaines, an all GOP battle.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 08, 2011, 10:15:15 pm
Not sure if this counts as a hold or a pickup, but a Republican won a House seat in Arkansas 60-40. (http://www.votenaturally.org/electionresults/index.php?ac:show:contest_statewide=1&elecid=251&contestid=1) The reason I say that is it was held by a term-limited Democrat, then won by a Republican who died before the election last year. That puts the Arkansas House at 54-45 with one vacancy (a Dem seat).


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on March 08, 2011, 10:37:04 pm
Republican blowout in TN State SD 18 in a race that was supposed to be close:
Kerry Roberts - R 8,827
Ken Wilber - D 4,316

Democrats hold House of Representatives District 98
Antonio '2 Shay' Parkinson - D 3,810
Write-In (Artie Smith) -  78


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 08, 2011, 10:45:14 pm
How was SD-18 going to be close? It was Diane Black's seat in the Nashville suburbs.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on March 08, 2011, 10:52:06 pm
How was SD-18 going to be close? It was Diane Black's seat in the Nashville suburbs.

Well, recall that the CD she won had been in Democratic hands since the Civil War.  Rural areas of middle and western Tennessee had certainly trended Republican in Presidential elections starting in 2000 and especially in 2008, but the strength of Republicans further down the ballot and at the county level was lacking.  

I can't recall where I read that this race was supposed to be close, but the fact that the Republican won by better than 2 to 1 in a more rural (ok, part suburban) part of middle Tennessee is, I believe, noteworthy.  It is consistent with the trend toward voting Republican down the ballot to county races across much of the rural south.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mississippi Political Freak on March 08, 2011, 10:57:16 pm
Republican blowout in TN State SD 18 in a race that was supposed to be close:
Kerry Roberts - R 8,827
Ken Wilber - D 4,316

Hi!  The Dem candidate being a local elected official doesn't mean that the race will be necessarily close.  It also depends on the political makeup of the district, as SD-18 in Tennessee seems to be consist of Nashville suburbs like Gallatin and Hendersonville which are trending sharply to the right.  Also Mayor Ken Wilber's fiscal stewardship is under prominent scrutiny.  Finally, the GOP candidate has a slightly larger geographical base to work from (Springfield in Robertson County vs. Portland in Sumner County).  Together with a friendly territory, Robert's victory isn't really a surprise.  This is my two cents on the race from a decidedly non-local perspective.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mississippi Political Freak on March 08, 2011, 11:21:43 pm
Not sure if this counts as a hold or a pickup, but a Republican won a House seat in Arkansas 60-40. (http://www.votenaturally.org/electionresults/index.php?ac:show:contest_statewide=1&elecid=251&contestid=1) The reason I say that is it was held by a term-limited Democrat, then won by a Republican who died before the election last year. That puts the Arkansas House at 54-45 with one vacancy (a Dem seat).

I would say is a GOP 'hold' of a posthumous pickup.  According to left-leaning blog sources from Arkansas quoted by the Swing State Project, the race has become extremely negative, as Garland County (Hot Spring)'s GOP Committee was sending mailers attacking the Dem candidate Jerry Rephan as a "pro-abortion Jewish" while advocating for the candidacy of the "Christian" GOP candidate Bruce Cozart. 

While the Dem seemed to be at least a semi-serious candidate judging by the presence of a more sophisticated campaign website compared to Cozart's profile under Garland County's GOP Committee website; I must grudging agree that the attack mailer is a masterstroke by the GOP, as it seems to appeal to demographic affinity if not the strong pro-life sentiment of the district.   

From my limited knowledge on the district, Arkansas' HD-24 is anchored at Hot Springs, and that area seems to be pretty homogeneous (majority-white) and heavily Christian (or even evangelical); making a liberal, Jewish-sounding Dem candidate really unappealing to the locals.  In low information local (and rural) campaigns like this and Louisiana's SD-26 special a few weekends ago, tarring an opponent to something foreign to the local traditions or someone unpopular with them is a highly effective campaign tatic.  IMHO, it is also an extremely deplorable use of the us-vs-them mentality in electoral politics.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Lunar on March 09, 2011, 11:22:46 pm
Another NY State Senator who opposed same-sex marriage has popped:

http://www.capitaltonight.com/2011/03/kruger-to-turn-himself-in/

some potential replacements:
http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/3752795819/after-carl-state-senator-alec-brook-krasny
http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/3756113800/one-fugly-district



Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Lunar on March 09, 2011, 11:33:14 pm
If you're counting, that leaves only one left: http://209.98.77.34/albanyproject/diary/9281/hey-remember-the-four-amigos


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Holmes on March 10, 2011, 08:10:33 am
Ugh, I hate Diaz. And you know he'll somehow outlast everyone.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 10, 2011, 08:33:38 am
Sounds like the Russian guy is going to be the frontrunner for the nomination. He voted for gay marriage in 2009, so I guess he's good? I'm a little surprised, considering how homophobic the former Soviet bloc is.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on March 10, 2011, 08:49:41 am
Sounds like the Russian guy is going to be the frontrunner for the nomination. He voted for gay marriage in 2009, so I guess he's good? I'm a little surprised, considering how homophobic the former Soviet bloc is.

The Russians in that area of Brooklyn are not any better.

I have to wonder looking at the map - did McCain actually win that SD?  Not that this matters at all in this area of the world (and I really, really mean that).


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Lunar on March 10, 2011, 10:00:39 am
I'll have to check re: McCain.

And yeah, you can see his district was carved out to help Marty Golden, so it's not exactly a GOP district.  I think the GOP could still have a hope to win a special election here though if another major Democrat petitions to get into the race on a 3rd-line?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Lunar on March 10, 2011, 10:01:56 am
 45% Obama


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on March 10, 2011, 12:30:55 pm
45% Obama

That's what I thought.  Golden's SD is probably stronger Obama.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 10, 2011, 01:08:04 pm
2008 results by Senate district. (http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6083/why-presidential-toplines-dont-mean-everything-the-new-york-senate)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Napoleon on March 10, 2011, 02:11:44 pm
Isn't Kruger's district very east European and conservative Jewish? It would make sense for Obama to lose there. I'm still shocked at how well Republicans manage to do at the State Senate level in New York, it seems that there is no real reason for it. It can't just be gerrymandering because there is too much ticket-splitting going on.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Lunar on March 10, 2011, 04:38:30 pm
Isn't Kruger's district very east European and conservative Jewish?

Yup.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 10, 2011, 05:10:55 pm
Nice site Lunar.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Lunar on March 10, 2011, 05:49:10 pm
Nice site Lunar.

hey, at the time it was the only site available with the info (I looked, trust me).


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Lunar on March 10, 2011, 08:16:49 pm
fun Carl Kruger picture, considering he voted against gay marriage:

(http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/2981/krugerwtf.png)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 11, 2011, 02:24:55 pm
And it comes out (no pun intended) that he's actually a closet case. Surprise surprise. (http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/brooklyn/gay_pol_mil_bribe_out_rage_ez6JwuYoczyNwZDtsPd0LN#ixzz1GIFQc3hP)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 12, 2011, 11:49:45 am
LOL. I think I should post this again in honor of him:

Screw your wife in the behind
Tell your kids you're doing fine
Goddamn no good stupid liar
Sucking dick your pants on fire

HOMOSEXUAL - up the ass
HOMOSEXUAL - make it last
HOMOSEXUAL - jerk me off
HOMOSEXUAL - go get lost!

Found out that your dad was gay
Living life a brand new way
John Lennon was a queer
He screwed Brian up the rear

HOMOSEXUAL - I'm one too
HOMOSEXUAL - so are you
HOMOSEXUAL - kill Dan White!
HOMOSEXUAL - was it right?

Don't like boys, you like girls
Living in your faggot world
Talking shop with lawyers' wifes
Sneaking out to meet the guys

HOMOSEXUAL - I'm ashamed
HOMOSEXUAL - that's your game
HOMOSEXUAL - where's the blame
HOMOSEXUAL - I can't explain

HOMOSEXUAL - we love you
HOMOSEXUAL - up the ass!
HOMOSEXUAL - Darby Crash
HOMOSEXUAL - make it last


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Lunar on March 14, 2011, 09:25:38 pm
(http://30.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lhvkm11x4z1qhlr6jo1_500.jpg)
(http://26.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lhvkhbZxl61qhlr6jo1_500.jpg)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 14, 2011, 10:44:41 pm
Well I for one am quite sure that there's a perfectly innocent explanation for those photographs.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Lunar on March 14, 2011, 11:35:12 pm
Well I for one am quite sure that there's a perfectly innocent explanation for those photographs.

Well the caption said birthday party 2008.  My general impression is that the male dancer was supposed to be some kind of "joke" picked by one of his friends, but I'm too lazy to actually research them.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Brittain33 on March 15, 2011, 08:02:47 am
Well I for one am quite sure that there's a perfectly innocent explanation for those photographs.

There are enough women in the picture that it looks more like cheap Cirque du Soleil than anything gay.

Did people see that video of male gymnasts performing for the Pope that was on Youtube about two months ago?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mississippi Political Freak on March 15, 2011, 09:03:09 pm
In Pennsylvania's State Senate SD-11 special election,  it's a 58-42 Democratic hold according to  http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=12&ElectionID=42 (http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=12&ElectionID=42) (From Pa. Department of State).


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Badger on March 23, 2011, 09:53:37 am
And it comes out (no pun intended) that he's actually a closet case. Surprise surprise. (http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/brooklyn/gay_pol_mil_bribe_out_rage_ez6JwuYoczyNwZDtsPd0LN#ixzz1GIFQc3hP)

Great and typical NY Post article: Doesn't even mention the hypocrite voted against gay marriage, but basically does all but scream "rich corrupt QUEER politician!!! Did we mention he's GAY?!?" Nice job, Post. ::)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on April 02, 2011, 10:55:12 pm
No surprise in LA State House special election tonight with two Republicans contesting the District 46 seat. 
"Mike Pete" Huval (R) 57.98% 4338
Craig Prosper (R) 42.02% 3144

The House is now 46D, 54R, 4I, 1 vacant.
http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf (http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on April 30, 2011, 09:13:41 pm
A close race in Louisiana for the vacant State House District 47 seat -
40 of 47 precincts reporting:
Linda Hardee (R)   49.67%   3051
"Bob" Hensgens (R)   50.33%   3092



Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on April 30, 2011, 09:31:49 pm
Hensgens lead grows to 162 votes.

42 of 47 precincts reporting

Linda Hardee (R)   48.73%   3111
"Bob" Hensgens (R)   51.27%   3273


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on April 30, 2011, 10:10:08 pm
Final returns have Hensgens winning by 312 votes, 52.35 to 47.65%.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on May 01, 2011, 03:58:19 pm
It appears that I missed that we actually had a special election for a vacant State Senate seat in St. Paul about three weeks ago when Dayton appointed the incumbent to head the Public Utilities Commission. Probably because it was not the slightest bit interesting (unsurprisingly):

Republican    GREG COPELAND    991   19.59   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    MARY JO MCGUIRE    4059   80.25   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    8   0.16


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 01, 2011, 04:35:20 pm
There are three specials for the Wisconsin Assembly on Tuesday, left vacant by Walker appointees (all Republicans, obviously). Two are safe Republican seats, but the third could be interesting; it's a swingy seat in LaCrosse County that went for Kloppenburg by 52-48. The Dems have a candidate with a pretty good resume: he's been on the LaCrosse County Board for something like 25 years and is a professor at UW-LaCrosse.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Meeker on May 03, 2011, 09:22:04 pm
Looks like the Democrats won the swing seat pretty solidly - 15/26 precincts reporting and the Democrat is ahead 55-45.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 03, 2011, 09:24:17 pm
Yeah, the Democrat has outperformed Kloppenburg's numbers in all but one precinct so far.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on May 03, 2011, 10:12:51 pm
The Democrat Doyle winning in District 94 with 26 of 27 precincts reporting:

Doyle , Steve Dem 8,105 54%

Lautz , John GOP 7,021 46%

D pick-up of one.  Wisconsin State House now 59R, 38D, 1I, 1V.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on May 04, 2011, 12:19:57 am
So that means Kapanke is basically dead in the water. This is actually the most conservative seat in his district, the other two are the city of La Crosse (which has a PVI of around D+12) and the other being some traditionally D-leaning but not overwhelmingly rural areas. This seat being basically suburban La Crosse is the most Republican and the only one that voted for Bush 2004.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on May 10, 2011, 08:36:52 pm
In the conclusion to perhaps the last outstanding race of 2010, Republican Peter Durant won a special election tonight to resolve the tie between him and incumbent Rep. Geraldo Alicea.

Not sure of the exact numbers, but Redmassgroup is reporting a 55-vote victory margin.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mr.Phips on May 10, 2011, 08:40:54 pm
In other news, Democrats appear to have held a State Senate seat in Maine.  The Democrat is leading 67%-33% with about two thirds reporting and the only town left to report was won by the Democrat in 2010 who only won districtwide by 75 votes. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 10, 2011, 08:52:30 pm
Yeah, the Democrat won in Maine, as did the Democrat for the other House election in Massachusetts (10th Middlesex). Coincidentally, both won with a 68-32 margin. The Worcester Telegram & Gazette is reporting 3,325 votes for Durant, 3,270 for Alicea.

There was also a state House seat in Alabama that ended with a 54-46 win for the Republican... against a Constitution Party candidate.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: tpfkaw on May 10, 2011, 08:55:40 pm
There was also a state House seat in Alabama that ended with a 54-46 win for the Republican... against a Constitution Party candidate.

LOL ... I bet the CPer got like 80% of the black vote too.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 10, 2011, 09:05:44 pm
It's southern Mobile County, there aren't any black people there.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: tpfkaw on May 10, 2011, 09:06:13 pm
It's southern Mobile County, there aren't any black people there.

But of those which are there.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Kevinstat on May 10, 2011, 10:06:00 pm
Yeah, the Democrat won in Maine

Since she was (well, she might still be until tomorrow) a State Representative, there will be a special election for her House seat, although it could theoretically be left vacant if the town (presumably the selectmen or the town manager) never sent notice of the vacancy to... I forget whether it's the Governor or the Secretary of State but no matter... the seat will definitly be filled, perhaps on the second Tuesday in June when a lot of Maine municipalities have elections (thats the date of the primaries in even years) probably on November 8 ("Election Day," when there will probably be some referenda on the ballot), and it leans pretty strongly Democratic nowadays, although there was a fairly close race in 2006 of all years.

The recent special State Senate election could be described as a contest between the parties as to who could nominate the worst candidate (http://www.pressherald.com/news/sparks-fly-in-district-7-race_2011-05-06.html), with the Republicans winning (http://www.pressherald.com/news/records-show-maietta-has-history-of-tax-liens_2011-05-06.html).

[Edited to reflect that I wasn't thinking when I said the special election might be held in mid-June, and that the election couldn't be held before the Legislature adjourns on June 15 and so the special election will likely be held in November.]


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on May 10, 2011, 10:37:34 pm
It's southern Mobile County, there aren't any black people there.

But of those which are there.

Most of them probably just didn't vote.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on May 12, 2011, 10:03:12 am
Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso
The Worcester Telegram & Gazette is reporting 3,325 votes for Durant, 3,270 for Alicea.

One of the interesting results of the 2010 elections here in Massachusetts were the tremendous (relatively) Republican gains in the State House. It's notable that the GOP did not clean up in marginal seats; instead, the GOP defeated incumbents and won open seats in areas that are heavily conservative (by Massachusetts standards). The Alicea seat in particular represents some fairly Republican territory -- Patrick won between 30 and 34 percent of the vote in every town that composes the district save for Southbridge, which he won by a 46–40 margin. Granted, Southbridge is the biggest town in the district, but still, it's a Baker-Brown district.

Historically, given the absence of an incumbent, Democrats have had the ability to play anywhere in the state -- few seats, if any, were truly "safe Republican." (It is quite possible for Democrats to someday rule the State Senate by a 40-0 margin.) The house seats Republicans took last year are quite holdable (given the powerful incumbency edge in MA), but the question remains: Was 2010 a fluke, or are Massachusetts conservatives getting more partisan?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Verily on May 12, 2011, 10:20:28 am
Maybe, but low-turnout special elections mean nothing in this regard (especially when the result is so close to the 2010 result, would be different if Durant won 60% of the vote or something).


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on May 12, 2011, 10:31:59 am
Maybe, but low-turnout special elections mean nothing in this regard (especially when the result is so close to the 2010 result, would be different if Durant won 60% of the vote or something).

Well, Alicea is an incumbent, after all, and incumbents simply don't lose general elections in this state.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Kevinstat on May 17, 2011, 08:11:29 pm
Democratic pickup in the New Hampshire House of Representatives, in the current Speaker's district apparently.

Source: Blue Hampshire (http://www.bluehampshire.com/diary/12791/daler-won-with-over-60)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on August 01, 2011, 11:01:33 am
Massachusetts is having a special election for the 12th Bristol seat, vacated by former Rep. Stephen R. Canessa. It's a gerrymandered abomination created for the sole benefit of Canessa, consisting of incredibly Republican territory in the north (65–70% Brown) and incredibly Democratic territory in the south (59% Coakley). Why, just look at the ugly little beast:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2080_01_08_11_10_37_52.jpg)

The Mass GOP thinks they have a chance here with low turnout in the New Bedford slugs, especially since Democrats have a weak slate without a candidate from that area. Former State Rep. George Rogers (D-New Bedford) predicts a GOP pickup.

Primary: August 23
General: Sept. 20

If the GOP can win this seat, their prospects for holding it post-redistricting are good. New Bedford is currently split amongst 4 state legislative districts, but that cannot continue -- realistically, it should only support 2. The town actually lost population while the more Republican areas surrounding it grew, so trends here are actually good for Republicans. Already, House redistricting chair Rep. Michael Moran is saying the district cannot sustain its current six-town composition, regardless of who wins. (State redistricting law mandates towns not be divided between districts unless absolutely necessary.)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Brittain33 on August 02, 2011, 12:54:35 pm
Who was Canessa's predecessor? I remember pretty distinctly he was elected at the same time as Carl, in 2004, because he was a young vote for gay marriage replacing someone who was against it.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on August 02, 2011, 01:19:32 pm
Who was Canessa's predecessor? I remember pretty distinctly he was elected at the same time as Carl, in 2004, because he was a young vote for gay marriage replacing someone who was against it.

Ah. Okay, so, I messed up the timeline a bit -- Canessa came along in 2004, not 2002.

In 2002, Mark A. Howland (D-Freetown) won the general election, after beating incumbent Rep. George Rogers (http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/bostonherald/access/98990621.html?dids=98990621:98990621&FMT=ABS&FMTS) (D-New Bedford) in the primary. Howland lost a primary to Canessa in 2004, and then lost a general election race to him as an Independent in 2006.

General Election Results
2002: Mark A. Howland (D), unopposed
2004: Stephen R. Canessa (D), unopposed
2006: Stephen R. Canessa (D), 69%; Mark A. Howland (I) 31%
2008: Stephen R. Canessa (D), unopposed
2010: Stephen R. Canessa (D), unopposed


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 09, 2011, 07:30:13 pm
Dems picked up another seat in the New Hampshire House. (http://politicalscoop.wmur.com/live-election-results-special-election-strafford-3-state-rep?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Kevinstat on August 16, 2011, 10:55:38 pm
Dem Hold in Maine House District 121 (most (population-wise) of Cape Elizabeth), 1,340 votes (53.51%) to 1,164 (46.49%).  Narrower than in 2010 (when the two-term Democratic inbumbent, who won a special State Senate election this spring, won 58.35% to 41.65%), but the Republicans had a strong candidate this time and they probably hadn't put much effort in in 2010.  Cape Elizabeth is rather strongly Democratic nowadays (it wasn't in the 1990s and definitely not in the 1980s).


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Brittain33 on August 23, 2011, 07:54:16 am
This is probably not leading to a special election, but, sigh, NJ...

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/08/nj_legislator_resigns_over_wifes_race_rant.php?ref=fpblg


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on August 23, 2011, 02:10:04 pm
This is probably not leading to a special election, but, sigh, NJ...

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/08/nj_legislator_resigns_over_wifes_race_rant.php?ref=fpblg

There will be a special election, but it will be scheduled for the same day as the Nov. general election.

Safe R anyway, barring a tectonic anti-GOP wave this November.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on August 23, 2011, 10:22:53 pm
The seat doesn't look THAT safe unless I drew it wrong in DRA (likely) or it changed significantly in redistricting (also likely).


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 23, 2011, 10:26:13 pm
Great comment, BRTD. "It doesn't look that way...unless I'm wrong (likely) or wrong (likely)."


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on August 23, 2011, 11:44:45 pm
My attempt at drawing the district in DRA based on the map on wikipedia has it as a 54% Obama and 50/50 average district. Now matching maps with NJ precincts is tough, and I don't know how it changed in redistricting, but I am interested in the numbers on the current seat.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on August 24, 2011, 01:17:33 am
My attempt at drawing the district in DRA based on the map on wikipedia has it as a 54% Obama and 50/50 average district. Now matching maps with NJ precincts is tough, and I don't know how it changed in redistricting, but I am interested in the numbers on the current seat.

Republicans have a phenomenal Burlington County machine, Democrats don't. It's the reason why the county is entirely dominated by Republicans at the local/county level.

The 8th District redraw is ... weird, to say the least. It keeps the strongly performing GOP territory in Burlington (District 7 has the Democratic half of Burlington), while adding a sole town in Atlantic, and a couple ugly bits of Camden County.

Doing the math:
Parts of old District 8: 175,825
Hammonton (Atlantic Co., 55% McCain): 14,791
Camden County (58% Obama): 28,482

Democrats never got more than 39% of the vote in the old District 8, even when a party-switching incumbent Senator was running for re-election. If they couldn't get to 40% in the old district, I just don't see how they'll ever get to 50% in the new one.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on August 24, 2011, 01:35:16 pm
I think I need to do a district-by-district analysis of the NJ map. We're only a few months out from the election, and these things could use some handicapping.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on August 31, 2011, 09:36:24 pm
Minnesota has two specials upcoming. I've been so out of the loop and not paying attention to local media and websites that I missed that my OWN State Senator resigned two weeks ago and announced her resignation in late June. Shame on me. She's been in office since 1981 yet resigned to take a position as health care policy director for Hennepin County. I wasn't really fond of her to be honest even though I did vote for her last year so I'm pleased her replacement will almost certainly be more liberal.

The other open seat is the 46th, vacant after the death of incumbent Linda Scheid in June to ovarian cancer.

My own district, the 61st is so safe DFL there's no point in assigning a PVI to it or anything, it's an 80%+ Dayton seat, his best in the state. Needless to say the special won't be interesting. The primary probably won't be either as the State Rep for half the seat Jeff Hayden is running, and I believe he'll be the only black state senator if elected. Hayden's opposition consists of a guy who ran on the IP ticket for State House last year and some random other people. I won't pledge to voting for Hayden if I end up liking one of the others (at least one has a pretty impressive resume I'll admit), but it would be an odd situation if he doesn't win. Of course the other candidates running are opening themselves up to the election for Hayden's House seat so it's not a waste (I don't live in that one so I can't vote in that election.) More info here: http://politicsinminnesota.com/2011/08/all-eyes-on-the-primary-six-dfl-challengers-are-vying-for-a-mpls-senate-sea

The 46th, in the immediate northern suburbs isn't quite as safe but is still a Dayton >50% seat, so it would be a massive upset if it flipped. Only two DFL candidates, the DFL endorsee is an RN and union activist Chris Eaton, also the wife of the mayor of Brooklyn Center. The other candidate is Timothy Davis Sr. who I can't find any real info on, so he's probably just an odd ballot-space wanter. So neither one will be too interesting. I do want to observe the patterns though!

Primaries on September 13, special on October 18.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on August 31, 2011, 09:56:16 pm
I've been so out of the loop and not paying attention to local media and websites that I missed that my OWN State Senator resigned two weeks ago and announced her resignation in late June. Shame on me.

Don't sweat it. Last year, I didn't find out until I read it on the forum that my State Rep in New Orleans had switched parties; my response even got goldmined.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on August 31, 2011, 09:58:59 pm
Yeah, I just tend to not pay much attention to local politics in odd-numbered years. At least I'm inspired to catch up a bit on local political blogs.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Meeker on September 12, 2011, 11:51:01 am
Does anyone know anything about the six special elections for the NY Assembly happening tomorrow?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 12, 2011, 06:05:33 pm
This is my update on DKE:

Quote
Along with Tuesday's special election in NY-09, there are six special elections to the New York Assembly. All six were previously held by Democrats. Here's the rundown:

• AD-23: This seat is in Queens; the candidates are Phillip Golfelder (D/WF/IP), who has worked for the city council and the mayor's office, and Jane Deacy (R/Cons), a retired NYPD officer. This seat went 67-33 for the old incumbent in 2010.

• AD-27: This seat is also in Queens; the candidates are Michael Simanowitz (D/WF/IP), who was the retiring incumbent's chief of staff, Marco Desena (R/Cons), a consultant and adjunct college professor, and Justin Jacobs (New Yorkers for Reform), a nonprofit CEO. The past incumbent was unopposed in 2010.

• AD-54: This seat in Brooklyn has become something of a circus. The former incumbent is Darryl Towns, son of Rep. Ed Towns. Democrats nominated Rafael Espinal, chief of staff for an NYC Council member; he also got the nominations of the Republican and Conservative Parties (along with something called United We Can). The Working Families Party was unhappy with this, I guess, so they nominated Jesus Gonzalez, a community organizer. Not content to make this a bland two-way race, Darryl Towns' sister, Deidra Towns, jumped into the race on the Community First ticket.

• AD-73: This one's in Manhattan. The candidates are both attorneys, Dan Quart (D/WF) and Paul Niehaus (R/IP). The previous incumbent in 2010 won 65-33.

• AD-116: And now we're outside New York City: This district is based in Utica. Candidates here are attorney Anthony Brindisi (D/WF/IP) and Marcy Town Council member Gregory Johnson (R/Cons). The former incumbent won 60-40 here in 2010.

• AD-144: Finally, we have a district in northwest Buffalo and Grand Island. The candidates are attorney Sean Ryan (D/WF), Sean Kipp (R/Cons), and small businessman Gregory Horn (G). The prior incumbent here won 53-27-20 in 2010 (against separate Republican and Conservative Party nominees).


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 12, 2011, 08:30:49 pm
Actually, I'm curious to know what the local party strength is like in the Utica district. It seems like it should be one that Republicans would do well in (Obama only won it 50-49), but the prior incumbent had little problem holding the seat over the past decade.

Edit: More registered Democrats than Republicans. Kind of odd for upstate New York.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on September 12, 2011, 09:01:35 pm
Actually, I'm curious to know what the local party strength is like in the Utica district. It seems like it should be one that Republicans would do well in (Obama only won it 50-49), but the prior incumbent had little problem holding the seat over the past decade.

Edit: More registered Democrats than Republicans. Kind of odd for upstate New York.
Not that odd for an economic basket case area like Utica. 

I have to wonder if the R-C candidate can win AD 144.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on September 13, 2011, 11:49:39 pm
These results in my Senate district ARE interesting. Or rather the breakdown:

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20110913/Cross_PLD.asp?M=LG&LD=61

(http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/9396/sd61.jpg)

Blue = solid Hayden
Red = solid Warfa
Green = not really strong for anyone

The border between those two blue precincts on the west edge that goes through the entire district is the border between the two State House districts. You can probably guess which is Hayden's.

The Hayden precincts have an >50% white VAP but just barely (50.8%), and are 17% black and 23.4% Hispanic. The green ones are 48.1% white/22.3% black/20.2% Hispanic VAP. The blue ones are 29% white/36.9% black/24.4% Hispanic VAP. Hayden is black by the way.

Special obviously won't be interesting, though the primary for Hayden's House seat probably will be.

Oh in the other seat the DFL endorsed candidate won with something like 88% against a nobody, and the GOP endorsed candidate got around 85% against one of those Ron Paul nerds. DFL primary had about twice as many votes.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Kevinstat on September 14, 2011, 07:31:15 pm
These results in my Senate district ARE interesting. Or rather the breakdown:

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20110913/Cross_PLD.asp?M=LG&LD=61

(http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/9396/sd61.jpg)

Blue Red = solid Hayden
Red Blue = solid Warfa
Green = not really strong for anyone

Correct?  I can't see how Hayden would have won by 2 to 1 (2.04 to 1, to be more precise) otherwise.

The Hayden precincts have an >50% white VAP but just barely (50.8%), and are 17% black and 23.4% Hispanic. The green ones are 48.1% white/22.3% black/20.2% Hispanic VAP. The blue ones are 29% white/36.9% black/24.4% Hispanic VAP. Hayden is black by the way.

This seems to back that up, at least about the red precincts being the solid Hayden ones.  Is Warfa black, too?

The border between those two blue precincts on the west edge that goes through the entire district is the border between the two State House districts. You can probably guess which is Hayden's.

It depends on the answer to my first question.

Does Warfa live in Hayden's House district?  It sounded from your earlier post that most of Hayden's challengers did.  I imagine someone who didn't run for the Senate seat would get Hayden's backing for his House seat, although you never know.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on September 14, 2011, 09:44:02 pm
These results in my Senate district ARE interesting. Or rather the breakdown:

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20110913/Cross_PLD.asp?M=LG&LD=61

(http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/9396/sd61.jpg)

Blue Red = solid Hayden
Red Blue = solid Warfa
Green = not really strong for anyone

Correct?  I can't see how Hayden would have won by 2 to 1 (2.04 to 1, to be more precise) otherwise.

Ah yes. Totally correct.

The Hayden precincts have an >50% white VAP but just barely (50.8%), and are 17% black and 23.4% Hispanic. The green ones are 48.1% white/22.3% black/20.2% Hispanic VAP. The blue ones are 29% white/36.9% black/24.4% Hispanic VAP. Hayden is black by the way.

This seems to back that up, at least about the red precincts being the solid Hayden ones.  Is Warfa black, too?

Yes, and also Somali. Which is actually a pretty interesting pattern. In 2010 Warfa ran for State House under the Independence Party ticket. He got 11.53% (DFL incumbent was reelected with 78.48%), but note the results in precinct 9-11. This was a 95.43% Obama precinct and gave Dayton 91.20% the same year:

Independence    SADIK WARFA    71   45.22   
Republican    NICHOLAS SKRIVANEK    4   2.55   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    KAREN CLARK    82   52.23   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    0   0.00

So it's obvious where Warfa's support base is coming from (by the way his campaign was little more than platitudes like "Better schools!" and "more jobs!")

The border between those two blue precincts on the west edge that goes through the entire district is the border between the two State House districts. You can probably guess which is Hayden's.

It depends on the answer to my first question.

Does Warfa live in Hayden's House district?  It sounded from your earlier post that most of Hayden's challengers did.  I imagine someone who didn't run for the Senate seat would get Hayden's backing for his House seat, although you never know.

No, the seat he ran in is the other one which I live in, 61A. Kristian Heuer by the way has already announced for Hayden's House seat, but he only got 2% in this primary.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: BigSkyBob on September 16, 2011, 08:35:34 pm
Iowa democratic State Senator resigns to take position in Branstad administration.

http://theiowarepublican.com/2011/branstad%E2%80%99s-appointment-of-dandekar-puts-iowa-senate-in-play/


The chamber is, now, 25D-24R. If the Republicans win, it's a tie. This will be the second special election for control of a state Senate this cycle.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on September 17, 2011, 06:32:10 am
Actually, I'm curious to know what the local party strength is like in the Utica district. It seems like it should be one that Republicans would do well in (Obama only won it 50-49), but the prior incumbent had little problem holding the seat over the past decade.

Edit: More registered Democrats than Republicans. Kind of odd for upstate New York.
Not that odd for an economic basket case area like Utica. 

I have to wonder if the R-C candidate can win AD 144.
71-21-8.
It was described as safe Democratic in some writeup I found... wonder what happened here in 2010? ??? Was the guy on the Conservative line actually a renegade Democrat?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 17, 2011, 07:50:12 am
Actually, I'm curious to know what the local party strength is like in the Utica district. It seems like it should be one that Republicans would do well in (Obama only won it 50-49), but the prior incumbent had little problem holding the seat over the past decade.

Edit: More registered Democrats than Republicans. Kind of odd for upstate New York.
Not that odd for an economic basket case area like Utica. 

I have to wonder if the R-C candidate can win AD 144.
71-21-8.
It was described as safe Democratic in some writeup I found... wonder what happened here in 2010? ??? Was the guy on the Conservative line actually a renegade Democrat?

Carl Paladino was on the ballot in 2010.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on September 17, 2011, 08:36:36 am
Actually, I'm curious to know what the local party strength is like in the Utica district. It seems like it should be one that Republicans would do well in (Obama only won it 50-49), but the prior incumbent had little problem holding the seat over the past decade.

Edit: More registered Democrats than Republicans. Kind of odd for upstate New York.
Not that odd for an economic basket case area like Utica. 

I have to wonder if the R-C candidate can win AD 144.
71-21-8.
It was described as safe Democratic in some writeup I found... wonder what happened here in 2010? ??? Was the guy on the Conservative line actually a renegade Democrat?

Carl Paladino was on the ballot in 2010.
And he had massive coattails in his little fief? Wow. The clown must be a god to Erie County.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 17, 2011, 08:47:37 am
They weren't massive; I don't think the Republicans picked up any seats in Erie County (aside from Grisanti winning, but Thompson had his own problems). But it was enough to cut the margins of a couple Dems in the district significantly.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on September 17, 2011, 10:33:14 pm
So all the seats were Dem holds?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on September 18, 2011, 04:24:41 am
So all the seats were Dem holds?
Yeah. 23rd was close at 54-46. Utica seat was 59-41. Hilarious Dem fight was hilarious, but the major parties candidate won (with under 50%) and the Black woman came third. That district is Bushwick. Other three races were the expected blowouts.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on September 18, 2011, 01:18:53 pm
Actually, I'm curious to know what the local party strength is like in the Utica district. It seems like it should be one that Republicans would do well in (Obama only won it 50-49), but the prior incumbent had little problem holding the seat over the past decade.

Edit: More registered Democrats than Republicans. Kind of odd for upstate New York.
Not that odd for an economic basket case area like Utica. 

I have to wonder if the R-C candidate can win AD 144.
71-21-8.
It was described as safe Democratic in some writeup I found... wonder what happened here in 2010? ??? Was the guy on the Conservative line actually a renegade Democrat?

Yes, quite literally: the Conservative candidate was a veteran Buffalo city councillor who ran in the Democratic primary and flipped to the Conservative nomination after losing that. Furthermore, this district is entirely contained within the Senate district where ex-Democrat Mark Grisanti beat corrupt Democrat Antoine Thompson. So I'm not sure Paladino's really the issue.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on September 18, 2011, 02:51:23 pm
Thanks Linus!


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 20, 2011, 11:55:30 pm
Republican Keiko Orrall won the 12th Bristol special election here in Massachusetts tonight. It's a GOP pickup.

Keiko Orrall (R)  2,135
Roger Brunelle (D)  1,762


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on September 21, 2011, 12:09:26 am
Republican Keiko Orrall won the 12th Bristol special election here in Massachusetts tonight. It's a GOP pickup.

Keiko Orrall (R)  2,135
Roger Brunelle (D)  1,762

This is awesome news.  Only forty eight more seats to gain and the GOP takes control of the lower house.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: redcommander on September 21, 2011, 12:28:56 am
Republican Keiko Orrall won the 12th Bristol special election here in Massachusetts tonight. It's a GOP pickup.

Keiko Orrall (R)  2,135
Roger Brunelle (D)  1,762


Great news. Republicans need more office holders in New England.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: smoltchanov on September 21, 2011, 04:13:18 am

Great news. Republicans need more office holders in New England.

For this to happen they must run more moderate candidates. Are they ready for it?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 21, 2011, 06:57:53 am
There was also another Democratic pickup in the New Hampshire House.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: smoltchanov on September 21, 2011, 08:35:28 am
There was also another Democratic pickup in the New Hampshire House.

Incidentally, AFAIK,  Democratic candidate there was former moderate-to-liberal Republican and Republicans ran a far-right O'Brien-type winger there...


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Brittain33 on September 21, 2011, 09:21:22 am
Republican Keiko Orrall won the 12th Bristol special election here in Massachusetts tonight. It's a GOP pickup.

Keiko Orrall (R)  2,135
Roger Brunelle (D)  1,762


That turnout is lower than in a 34th Middlesex primary. The Tea Party folks came out and the Dem machine didn't, it looks like. Do you know why Brunelle didn't get votes?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: redcommander on September 22, 2011, 12:03:54 am
Republican Keiko Orrall won the 12th Bristol special election here in Massachusetts tonight. It's a GOP pickup.

Keiko Orrall (R)  2,135
Roger Brunelle (D)  1,762


That turnout is lower than in a 34th Middlesex primary. The Tea Party folks came out and the Dem machine didn't, it looks like. Do you know why Brunelle didn't get votes?

It's still not good news for Democrats in the state that Republicans now have 33 in the House. Massachusetts Dems should have motivated voters for the seat seeing at how successful they were with their GOTV effort last Fall. Orrall is quite Conservative, even for the standards of a Massachusetts Republican.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: smoltchanov on September 22, 2011, 02:35:05 am

It's still not good news for Democrats in the state that Republicans now have 33 in the House. Massachusetts Dems should have motivated voters for the seat seeing at how successful they were with their GOTV effort last Fall. Orrall is quite Conservative, even for the standards of a Massachusetts Republican.

Turnout in New Bedford was abysmal. In addition - it seems to me that voters in many parts of US, are of anti-incumbent mood now. In Republican-dominated New Hampshire they vote Democratic in one special after another (the only exception was - well, an exception, with "nonstandard" Republican candidate), in heavily Democratic-dominated (and scandal-plagued, mostly - with Democratic officeholders) they seem to inclined to "punish" them at least a little. Possibly - combination of both...


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 22, 2011, 05:50:49 pm

It's still not good news for Democrats in the state that Republicans now have 33 in the House. Massachusetts Dems should have motivated voters for the seat seeing at how successful they were with their GOTV effort last Fall. Orrall is quite Conservative, even for the standards of a Massachusetts Republican.

Turnout in New Bedford was abysmal. In addition - it seems to me that voters in many parts of US, are of anti-incumbent mood now. In Republican-dominated New Hampshire they vote Democratic in one special after another (the only exception was - well, an exception, with "nonstandard" Republican candidate), in heavily Democratic-dominated (and scandal-plagued, mostly - with Democratic officeholders) they seem to inclined to "punish" them at least a little. Possibly - combination of both...

Democrats were a victim of their own redistricting map. Parts of Middleboro and Lakeville, two of the most Republican towns in Massachusetts (both were among a select few that voted for Kerry Healey in 2006), were crammed into a district dominated by New Bedford. In a normal election, New Bedford keeps the GOP out of the game.

Predictably, Orrall won every town in the district except for New Bedford (though Taunton was close), which she lost by 3:1. The problem for Democrats was that New Bedford's turnout was an abysmal 11%, while Lakeville, which Orrall won by 3:1, turned out at a 29% rate. That right there was game, set, match.

It would seem that the parts of Massachusetts that should be electing Republican state reps finally are. This should make a large number of conservative Democrats -- many of whom need to run a good 20 or 30 points ahead of the GOP nominee for governor to win -- nervous. And I Think you'll see that when the redistricting maps get released in the coming months.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Brittain33 on September 25, 2011, 08:10:45 am
This is similar to Scott Brown's win. Turnout in the struggling cities in Mass. in special elections is absolutely abysmal. Brown did abnormally well in places like Lowell and Lawrence because tons of voters who come out every 4 years, didn't do so. Brown won for other reasons too, but this was part of the picture that we are also seeing here.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on October 20, 2011, 01:05:27 am
So those two Minnesota specials ended up as expected:

46:
Independence    TOM REYNOLDS    292   5.35   
Republican    CORY JENSEN    1782   32.67   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    CHRIS EATON    3374   61.85   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    7   0.13

61:
Independence    MATT BRILLHART    44   1.62   
Republican    BRUCE A. LUNDEEN    221   8.13   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    JEFF HAYDEN    1856   68.24   
Green    FARHEEN HAKEEM    595   21.88   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    4   0.15


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on November 15, 2011, 04:18:40 am
We got two more specials upcoming, one Senate one House. The House one is of course Hayden's seat. The Senate one is district 59 in northeast Minneapolis and the University of Minnesota area, as the incumbent Larry Pogemiller was appointed by Dayton to be the state's director of higher education. Both are obviously utterly safe seats but I'd like to look for patterns in the primaries. Primary Dec. 6, special Jan. 10.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 15, 2011, 09:57:41 am
We're going to have quite a few since a number of State Representatives have been elected to municipal government. I believe the breakdown is three from Philly (including my State Representative. That would be the only remotely competitive seat from the city), one from Montco, one from Lehigh and one from Allegheny.

We're left wondering if the specials will take place in the old or new districts and when each representative will resign. Since my district was eliminated, someone might only get to serve for seven months.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on November 16, 2011, 07:48:57 am
Been checking numbers, and it appears that as a result of the November 2011 elections, both houses of the Mississippi state legislature went from Democrat controlled to Republican controlled while in Lousiana and Virginia (where each party previously controlled one of the houses of the state legislature), Republicans won control of both houses.

Yes, I know the Democrats won a couple of special state legislative races around the country, but I don't know of any legislature (or house thereof) which flipped to Democrat control in 2011.

Does anyone else?

If so, please specify state, which house(s), and a link.

Thank you.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Holmes on November 16, 2011, 09:06:46 am
Haha, CARL. Stealth brag there if I ever seen one.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on November 16, 2011, 10:01:25 am
Been checking numbers, and it appears that as a result of the November 2011 elections, both houses of the Mississippi state legislature went from Democrat controlled to Republican controlled while in Lousiana and Virginia (where each party previously controlled one of the houses of the state legislature), Republicans won control of both houses.

Yes, I know the Democrats won a couple of special state legislative races around the country, but I don't know of any legislature (or house thereof) which flipped to Democrat control in 2011.

Does anyone else?

If so, please specify state, which house(s), and a link.

Thank you.
True:  none did.  The NJ Assembly did go from 47D, 33R to 48D, 32R.  In Virginia, Mississippi, and Louisiana, the Democrats lost seats across the board.  They lost the Mississippi House and also are now on the losing end of a tie in the Virginia Senate (as the Lt Gov has vowed to break all ties for organizing the chamber in the GOP's favor).


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: BigSkyBob on November 17, 2011, 12:45:27 pm
Been checking numbers, and it appears that as a result of the November 2011 elections, both houses of the Mississippi state legislature went from Democrat controlled to Republican controlled while in Lousiana and Virginia (where each party previously controlled one of the houses of the state legislature), Republicans won control of both houses.

Yes, I know the Democrats won a couple of special state legislative races around the country, but I don't know of any legislature (or house thereof) which flipped to Democrat control in 2011.

Does anyone else?

If so, please specify state, which house(s), and a link.

Thank you.

Since Nov 2010, the GOP gained majorities in five legislatures, and the Democrats none:the Lousiana House by party switches, the Lousiana Senate by special elections, the Mississippi Senate by party switches, the Mississippi House on election day, and the Virginia Senate on election day. In one year, that's a switch from a 5-1 advantage, to a 1-5 disadvantage.

It must have been a pretty painful year for partisan Democrats to watch!


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Holmes on November 17, 2011, 01:03:41 pm
Only partisan Democrats would be the ones crying over losing legislatures in the deep south, yes.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Brittain33 on November 17, 2011, 01:18:34 pm
Only partisan Democrats would be the ones crying over losing legislatures in the deep south, yes.

Yeah. 2010 was painful, so was 2002, but unless I lived in Mississippi I'm not going to shed tears over an historical inevitability. Sorry.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: BigSkyBob on November 18, 2011, 12:11:41 am
Only partisan Democrats would be the ones crying over losing legislatures in the deep south, yes.

Then, it must really have hurt to watch the GOP pick up both chambers in New Hampshire, Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, the Houses in Pennsylvania, Colorado and Ohio, and the Senate in New York. The last one must have really caused some consternation. Fortunately, the loss of both chambers in North Carolina wasn't that bad since it is part of the South.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Miles on November 18, 2011, 12:30:43 am
Only partisan Democrats would be the ones crying over losing legislatures in the deep south, yes.

Its frustrating and sad to a white southern ConservaDem like me; still, given the south's hostility to Obama, I can't say its surprising.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on November 18, 2011, 03:28:34 am
Been checking numbers, and it appears that as a result of the November 2011 elections, both houses of the Mississippi state legislature went from Democrat controlled to Republican controlled while in Lousiana and Virginia (where each party previously controlled one of the houses of the state legislature), Republicans won control of both houses.

Yes, I know the Democrats won a couple of special state legislative races around the country, but I don't know of any legislature (or house thereof) which flipped to Democrat control in 2011.

Does anyone else?

If so, please specify state, which house(s), and a link.

Thank you.

Since Nov 2010, the GOP gained majorities in five legislatures, and the Democrats none:the Lousiana House by party switches, the Lousiana Senate by special elections, the Mississippi Senate by party switches, the Mississippi House on election day, and the Virginia Senate on election day. In one year, that's a switch from a 5-1 advantage, to a 1-5 disadvantage.

It must have been a pretty painful year for partisan Democrats to watch!

What is so hillarious is the Democrats are bragging about winning a vote on one issue is Ohio (they lost on the healthcare issue in the same election in Ohio), while ignoring what happened around the mation.



Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Badger on November 18, 2011, 08:45:17 am
Having actually read the soft cuddly language of (and voted on) Issue 3, I assure you few people knew what they were voting about. The same cannot be remotely said about Issue 2.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 18, 2011, 08:36:10 pm
Only partisan Democrats would be the ones crying over losing legislatures in the deep south, yes.

Then, it must really have hurt to watch the GOP pick up both chambers in New Hampshire, Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, the Houses in Pennsylvania, Colorado and Ohio, and the Senate in New York. The last one must have really caused some consternation. Fortunately, the loss of both chambers in North Carolina wasn't that bad since it is part of the South.

There was no excuse for Democrats to lose the New York Senate.  This was caused by a Democratic incumbent losing in a 77% Obama district. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: BigSkyBob on November 19, 2011, 12:45:37 pm
Only partisan Democrats would be the ones crying over losing legislatures in the deep south, yes.

Then, it must really have hurt to watch the GOP pick up both chambers in New Hampshire, Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, the Houses in Pennsylvania, Colorado and Ohio, and the Senate in New York. The last one must have really caused some consternation. Fortunately, the loss of both chambers in North Carolina wasn't that bad since it is part of the South.

There was no excuse for Democrats to lose the New York Senate.  This was caused by a Democratic incumbent losing in a 77% Obama district. 

Then, it must of have doubly sucked.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on November 29, 2011, 11:30:04 pm
It looks like Dickie Drake (that name would not fly too well in much of the country, I'd guess) will replace his late brother Owen in the Alabama H of R for District 45.
http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2011/11/unofficial_results_show_drake.html (http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2011/11/unofficial_results_show_drake.html)

He is leading Paige Parnell, a former Miss Alabama, about 55 to 45%.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 30, 2011, 12:22:37 am
It was confirmed today that the slew of specials we are going to have here in a number of State House districts will take place in the new districts. Since my district was eliminated, I won't have to vote. This would have been the only truly competitive special. The only other one that might be is one in the Lehigh Valley but the GOP will have the edge.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on November 30, 2011, 12:32:21 am
It was confirmed today that the slew of specials we are going to have here in a number of State House districts will take place in the new districts.

I would've thought that would be illegal.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 30, 2011, 01:11:26 pm
It was confirmed today that the slew of specials we are going to have here in a number of State House districts will take place in the new districts.

I would've thought that would be illegal.

Apparently not.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming race
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on November 30, 2011, 01:21:37 pm
It was confirmed today that the slew of specials we are going to have here in a number of State House districts will take place in the new districts.

I would've thought that would be illegal.
Certainly would be for federal elections and certainly ought to be for state elections...


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: cinyc on November 30, 2011, 02:48:35 pm
New York will have four special elections for Assembly at a time yet undetermined next year - two currently held by Democrats who won local elective offices in Buffalo and Yonkers, and two held by Republicans representing districts from Dutchess County and environs.  One of the Dutchess County elections is due to the Assemblyman being elected County Executive; the other is due to death.  The deceased Assemblyman Kirwin only won by 15 votes in the 2010 election.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: NY Jew on December 02, 2011, 04:17:23 am
Only partisan Democrats would be the ones crying over losing legislatures in the deep south, yes.

Then, it must really have hurt to watch the GOP pick up both chambers in New Hampshire, Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, the Houses in Pennsylvania, Colorado and Ohio, and the Senate in New York. The last one must have really caused some consternation. Fortunately, the loss of both chambers in North Carolina wasn't that bad since it is part of the South.

There was no excuse for Democrats to lose the New York Senate.  This was caused by a Democratic incumbent losing in a 77% Obama district. 
and the second most McCain district in the state was won a democrat


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Seattle on December 02, 2011, 07:29:31 pm
I don't think the second most McCain district was as close percentage wise to him than that district to Obama. Do you have the numbers?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: NY Jew on December 05, 2011, 03:35:18 am
I don't think the second most McCain district was as close percentage wise to him than that district to Obama. Do you have the numbers?
the McCain district I was referring to hasn't put up a Republican candidate in what seems like at least 10 years.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Verily on December 05, 2011, 08:49:16 am
I don't think the second most McCain district was as close percentage wise to him than that district to Obama. Do you have the numbers?

He's talking about Dov Hikind's Assembly district, which is totally irrelevant to the discussion but was extremely strong for McCain, like 70% or so. Of course, Presidential vote is meaningless in that part of the world.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: BigSkyBob on December 05, 2011, 10:26:14 am
I don't think the second most McCain district was as close percentage wise to him than that district to Obama. Do you have the numbers?

He's talking about Dov Hikind's Assembly district, which is totally irrelevant to the discussion but was extremely strong for McCain, like 70% or so. Of course, Presidential vote is meaningless in that part of the world.


I think he is talking about Carl Kruger's state senate seat.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Verily on December 05, 2011, 11:20:13 am
I don't think the second most McCain district was as close percentage wise to him than that district to Obama. Do you have the numbers?

He's talking about Dov Hikind's Assembly district, which is totally irrelevant to the discussion but was extremely strong for McCain, like 70% or so. Of course, Presidential vote is meaningless in that part of the world.


I think he is talking about Carl Kruger's state senate seat.


He's not; that seat is fairly Republican but far from the second-most Republican in the state. It's maybe R+5 or so.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: NY Jew on December 09, 2011, 01:08:46 pm
I don't think the second most McCain district was as close percentage wise to him than that district to Obama. Do you have the numbers?

He's talking about Dov Hikind's Assembly district, which is totally irrelevant to the discussion but was extremely strong for McCain, like 70% or so. Of course, Presidential vote is meaningless in that part of the world.


I think he is talking about Carl Kruger's state senate seat.


He's not; that seat is fairly Republican but far from the second-most Republican in the state. It's maybe R+5 or so.
no I was talking about Kruger (the reason Republicans do so bad here is because they never put anyone up (the incumbent R district leader of one the AD in this SD even got a very well known democratic blogger endorsement in his primary race))

here are the NY state senate districts in order of most pro McCain

                           Obama     McCain
Lanza                  38.54%    60.82%
Kruger               44.62%    54.75%
Volker            44.63%    53.80%
Young            45.65%    52.64%
Maziarz            46.85%    51.59%
Flanagan             48.49%    51.15%
Golden               48.88%    50.35%
Griffo            48.79%    49.64%
Seward            48.95%    49.28%
Nozzolio            49.66%    48.85%
Aubertine        49.75%    48.75%
Ranzenhofer        50.44%    48.09%
Hugh Farley        50.48%    47.61%
Winner           51.25%    47.42%
Libous            51.07%    47.27%
Morahan           52.08%    47.25%
Marcellino            52.35%    47.20%
Skelos                52.10%    47.17%
Leibell            52.37%    46.69%
LaValle                 53.40%    46.55%
O. Johnson           52.87%    46.30%
Larkin            53.13%    45.77%
McDonald        52.96%    45.38%
Foley               54.69%    44.84%
Fuschillo               55.39%    43.92%
Saland            54.84%    43.89%
Little            54.64%    43.81%
C. Johnson          55.55%    43.74%
Hannon               55.69%    43.61%
Alesi            55.36%    43.45%
Bonacic            56.39%    42.07%
DeFrancisco        56.08%    41.98%
Stachowski        56.30%    41.92%
Valesky            58.46%    39.83%
Addabbo             61.26%    38.01%
Klein             62.26%    37.06%
Padavan               62.59%    36.65%
Stewart-Cousins    64.17%    35.07%
Oppenheimer        64.79%    34.44%
Breslin            63.85%    34.39%
Stavisky               65.01%    34.21%
Robach            65.85%    33.01%
Savino              66.65%    32.67%
Krueger              75.49%    23.75%
Thompson        76.71%    22.06%
Onorato              79.19%    19.78%
Monserrate        82.21%    17.30%
Squadron            82.59%    16.56%
Parker             84.19%    15.47%
Smith             84.70%    14.92%
Duane               85.49%    13.57%
Schneiderman        87.88%    11.32%
Huntley               89.52%    10.15%
Dilan               89.95%    9.46%
Espada               90.86%    8.80%
Adams               91.45%    8.07%
Díaz                       92.59%    7.14%
Serrano               92.56%    7.03%
Sampson               93.22%    6.65%
Perkins               95.17%    4.30%
Hassell-Thompson    95.85%    3.99%
Montgomery         96.43%    3.14%


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: BigSkyBob on December 09, 2011, 02:34:08 pm
I don't think the second most McCain district was as close percentage wise to him than that district to Obama. Do you have the numbers?

He's talking about Dov Hikind's Assembly district, which is totally irrelevant to the discussion but was extremely strong for McCain, like 70% or so. Of course, Presidential vote is meaningless in that part of the world.


I think he is talking about Carl Kruger's state senate seat.


He's not; that seat is fairly Republican but far from the second-most Republican in the state. It's maybe R+5 or so.
no I was talking about Kruger (the reason Republicans do so bad here is because they never put anyone up (the incumbent R district leader of one the AD in this SD even got a very well known democratic blogger endorsement in his primary race))

here are the NY state senate districts in order of most pro McCain

                           Obama     McCain
Lanza                  38.54%    60.82%
Kruger               44.62%    54.75%
Volker            44.63%    53.80%
Young            45.65%    52.64%
Maziarz            46.85%    51.59%
Flanagan             48.49%    51.15%
Golden               48.88%    50.35%
Griffo            48.79%    49.64%
Seward            48.95%    49.28%
Nozzolio            49.66%    48.85%
Aubertine        49.75%    48.75%
Ranzenhofer        50.44%    48.09%
Hugh Farley        50.48%    47.61%
Winner           51.25%    47.42%
Libous            51.07%    47.27%
Morahan           52.08%    47.25%
Marcellino            52.35%    47.20%
Skelos                52.10%    47.17%
Leibell            52.37%    46.69%
LaValle                 53.40%    46.55%
O. Johnson           52.87%    46.30%
Larkin            53.13%    45.77%
McDonald        52.96%    45.38%
Foley               54.69%    44.84%
Fuschillo               55.39%    43.92%
Saland            54.84%    43.89%
Little            54.64%    43.81%
C. Johnson          55.55%    43.74%
Hannon               55.69%    43.61%
Alesi            55.36%    43.45%
Bonacic            56.39%    42.07%
DeFrancisco        56.08%    41.98%
Stachowski        56.30%    41.92%
Valesky            58.46%    39.83%
Addabbo             61.26%    38.01%
Klein             62.26%    37.06%
Padavan               62.59%    36.65%
Stewart-Cousins    64.17%    35.07%
Oppenheimer        64.79%    34.44%
Breslin            63.85%    34.39%
Stavisky               65.01%    34.21%
Robach            65.85%    33.01%
Savino              66.65%    32.67%
Krueger              75.49%    23.75%
Thompson        76.71%    22.06%

That one was an embarassing one to lose!


Quote
Onorato              79.19%    19.78%
Monserrate        82.21%    17.30%
Squadron            82.59%    16.56%
Parker             84.19%    15.47%
Smith             84.70%    14.92%
Duane               85.49%    13.57%
Schneiderman        87.88%    11.32%
Huntley               89.52%    10.15%
Dilan               89.95%    9.46%
Espada               90.86%    8.80%
Adams               91.45%    8.07%
Díaz                       92.59%    7.14%
Serrano               92.56%    7.03%
Sampson               93.22%    6.65%
Perkins               95.17%    4.30%
Hassell-Thompson    95.85%    3.99%
Montgomery         96.43%    3.14%


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: NY Jew on December 11, 2011, 08:04:48 pm
I don't think the second most McCain district was as close percentage wise to him than that district to Obama. Do you have the numbers?

He's talking about Dov Hikind's Assembly district, which is totally irrelevant to the discussion but was extremely strong for McCain, like 70% or so. Of course, Presidential vote is meaningless in that part of the world.


I think he is talking about Carl Kruger's state senate seat.


He's not; that seat is fairly Republican but far from the second-most Republican in the state. It's maybe R+5 or so.
no I was talking about Kruger (the reason Republicans do so bad here is because they never put anyone up (the incumbent R district leader of one the AD in this SD even got a very well known democratic blogger endorsement in his primary race))

here are the NY state senate districts in order of most pro McCain

                           Obama     McCain
Thompson        76.71%    22.06%

That one was an embarassing one to lose!


Quote


whats so embarrassing it was one democrat loosing to another think of Bloomberg winning in NY (his first term when he was still officially a Republican)  (all it was was a democrat switching parties for political reasons as opposed to ideological ones and then acting like a democrat once he got in office)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 21, 2011, 07:54:49 am
Kruger has resigned from the Senate, so we should see an interesting special election there.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: NY Jew on December 21, 2011, 09:56:48 am
if the Republicans nominates someone who is against marriage redefinition (and other parts of the lgbt agenda), has no big baggage, and could do well with the Russian community and the dems nominate Lou Fidler expect the Republican to win (especially now that people (who used to frontrunner) realize that they can win)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: cinyc on January 09, 2012, 09:54:49 pm
Governor Cuomo announced today that New York will hold (http://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/105269/special-elections-set-for-march-20/) special elections to fill the 4 vacant Assembly seats and 1 vacant State Senate seat on March 20.

The vacant Assembly seats are in the Buffalo area (including part of the city), Yonkers, Dutchess/Orange/Ulster counties and Dutchess/Columbia counties.  The vacant State Senate seat is Kruger's seat in Brooklyn.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 09, 2012, 10:36:32 pm
I totally forgot until now we have two specials tomorrow.

One is for Senate district 59 in NE Minneapolis, made vacant by the appointment of former Senator Majority Leader Larry Pogemiller to head the State Office of Higher Education. The DFL candidate who won the primary is Kari Dziedzic (hmm, I do recall now seeing Dziedzic for Senate signs in neighborhoods near my church but never put much thought into them.), the daughter of some longterm city councilman. The Republican is some random irrelevant guy. Obviously it's an utterly safe DFL seat with nothing interesting going to happen.

The other one might actually be kind of interesting, it's 61B in South Minneapolis, made open by the election of Jeff Hayden to become my new State Senator (though I won't be able to vote in this one living in 61A.) No Republican filed. Tribal activist Susan Allen won the primary and her only opponent is Nathan Blumenshine, who is running under the "Respect" ticket and describes himself as an "independent progressive". His platform on his website (http://www.blumenshine.org) is pretty much what you'd expect a liberal Democrat in this district to run on and even seems pretty respectful of Allen instead of attacking her. Good guy. I don't think he has a chance because too many folks in this district are party-line voters but at least the election won't be a boring blowout, he might even win a precinct or two.

Fun fact: If Allen wins (overwhelmingly likely), both House districts in this State Senate one will be represented by lesbians. In addition Minnesota will get its only Native member of the legislature. Blumenshine is good, but he's also a boring white heterosexual guy. I think I know who Lewis would be voting for if he lived here. :)

Apparently there was a "forum" between these two candidates which strikes me as insanely boring since they are basically identical on all the issues, but clips are on YouTube anyway.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 10, 2012, 10:29:34 pm
State Senate District 59
Republican    BEN SCHWANKE    824   19.28   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    KARI DZIEDZIC    3393   79.41   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    56   1.31

*yawn*

State Representative District 61B
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    SUSAN ALLEN    1155   55.96   
Respect    NATHAN BLUMENSHINE    896   43.41   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    13   0.63

Good showing by Blumenshine. He actually two precincts, one in a landslide, and tied another. Unsurprisingly he did best in the white areas, Allen won the minority areas.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: BigSkyBob on January 11, 2012, 01:27:35 am
State Senate District 59
Republican    BEN SCHWANKE    824   19.28   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    KARI DZIEDZIC    3393   79.41   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    56   1.31

*yawn*

State Representative District 61B
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    SUSAN ALLEN    1155   55.96   
Respect    NATHAN BLUMENSHINE    896   43.41   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    13   0.63

Good showing by Blumenshine. He actually two precincts, one in a landslide, and tied another. Unsurprisingly he did best in the white areas, Allen won the minority areas.

Is this a sign of "racially polarized voting" within the Democratic primary?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Brittain33 on January 17, 2012, 09:10:49 am
State Senate District 59
Republican    BEN SCHWANKE    824   19.28   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    KARI DZIEDZIC    3393   79.41   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    56   1.31

*yawn*

State Representative District 61B
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    SUSAN ALLEN    1155   55.96   
Respect    NATHAN BLUMENSHINE    896   43.41   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    13   0.63

Good showing by Blumenshine. He actually two precincts, one in a landslide, and tied another. Unsurprisingly he did best in the white areas, Allen won the minority areas.

Is this a sign of "racially polarized voting" within the Democratic primary?


It's not a Democratic primary.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 17, 2012, 09:39:04 am
Tribal activist Susan Allen won the primary and her only opponent is Nathan Blumenshine, who is running under the "Respect" ticket and describes himself as an "independent progressive". His platform on his website (http://www.blumenshine.org) is pretty much what you'd expect a liberal Democrat in this district to run on and even seems pretty respectful of Allen instead of attacking her.
Echoed:
Quote
Thank you voters for your strong show of support in this Special Election! Thank you to the many, many volunteers for your hard work and commitment. I could not have done this without you. And thanks to Nate Blumenshine for running a respectful, issue focused campaign that brought the people of our district together, rather than divide us.

If the primary had been racially polarized, it couldn't possibly have been won by a Native American, no? Still, would be interesting to hear what the primary was like.
White Liberals having a problem with voting for non-White non-incumbents as long as there is a non-Republican alternative is nothing new in Minneapolis (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_5th_congressional_district_election,_2006), of course.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 17, 2012, 11:58:14 am
Allen easily won the primary with 82%.

I don't think there's a sign of racial polarization here so much but rather simply that minorities just voted for the DFL candidate while the whites voted for the progressive candidate they were more impressed by. It was kind of the same thing in 2006 (actually that was more the progressive candidate who had less baggage and just happened to be white.)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 10, 2012, 12:19:09 am
Minnesota State Senator Gary Kubly passed away and a special election for his seat is being held on April 10. The seat is probably lean DFL, it's a rural area that's trended against the Democrats in recent years but was still carried by Dayton by about 2 points. Obama won it by about 5 points, and it was basically a tie in the 2008 Senate, won by Franken by 56 votes:

http://www.sos.state.mn.us/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=11170

The bad news for the DFL is whoever wins it will have to run in the new 16th or 17th, both of which are more Republican.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 12, 2012, 09:31:48 am
All of our State House Specials will be on Primary day (April 24th). I believe there are six total (one in Pittsburgh, one in the Lehigh Valley, one in Montco and three in Philly). One is Likely GOP, three are Safe Dem, one is Likely Dem and the other (mine) is a toss up. The last one will be fun to watch. I have strong connections to that race. ;)  If you get bored with the Presidential primaries and the Altmire-Critz race, tune in.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on March 20, 2012, 11:11:39 pm
So Dems won three of the four assembly seats, including both held by Republicans, and the GOP won the inner city Buffalo district formerly held by a Dem by running a popular Dem who has said he will caucus with the Dems, but not support Sheldon Silver, and endorsed Paladino in 2010.  The race here was D-Cons v. R-Ind. (lol)

Of the two GOP seats, 100 was the more likely one to go as the Dem incumbent who lost to the GOP former 14-term incumbent who had previously lost in 2008 but won the seat back in 2010 (and then died in 2011) was running.  103 is the big win for the Dems.  At any rate, it doesn't really affect Assembly number, but hey.

Meanwhile, the open State Senate seat is basically tied right now.  Storobin leads Fidler by 94 votes with 213/258 precincts reporting.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on March 20, 2012, 11:45:16 pm
Per Daily Politics and Celeste Katz, the NYC Board of Elections has the unofficial total for 100% of precincts at Storobin +120, 10756 to 10636.  AP now matches this.

Also, per Board of Elections, 1194 absentees were returned, 437 were invalid, 757 were valid.  2090 were issued in total.  At any rate, we won't know a winner on this one tonight.

Right now, the margin would be just outside that of a mandatory recount, fyi.

Where is NY Jew now?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: BigSkyBob on March 21, 2012, 10:23:38 pm
Per Daily Politics and Celeste Katz, the NYC Board of Elections has the unofficial total for 100% of precincts at Storobin +120, 10756 to 10636.  AP now matches this.

Also, per Board of Elections, 1194 absentees were returned, 437 were invalid, 757 were valid.  2090 were issued in total.  At any rate, we won't know a winner on this one tonight.

Right now, the margin would be just outside that of a mandatory recount, fyi.

Where is NY Jew now?

Of the 757, how many do you expect to successfully challenged by either campaign before they are opened and counted?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: NY Jew on March 22, 2012, 01:25:16 am
Per Daily Politics and Celeste Katz, the NYC Board of Elections has the unofficial total for 100% of precincts at Storobin +120, 10756 to 10636.  AP now matches this.

Also, per Board of Elections, 1194 absentees were returned, 437 were invalid, 757 were valid.  2090 were issued in total.  At any rate, we won't know a winner on this one tonight.

Right now, the margin would be just outside that of a mandatory recount, fyi.

Where is NY Jew now?
from the NYT
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/21/nyregion/both-sides-declare-victory-in-bumpy-brooklyn-senate-race.html?_r=2
Quote
He generated support from the staunchly Orthodox communities who did not favor Mr. Fidler’s support of same-sex marriage.


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/22/nyregion/in-overtime-close-senate-election-shifts-to-the-vote-counters.html
Quote
He took advantage of two growing and politically conservative communities in Brooklyn — Orthodox Jews, who related to Mr. Storobin’s position against same-sex marriage, and Russians, who were eager to elect a young candidate who spoke their language.



Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on March 22, 2012, 07:28:55 am
Per Daily Politics and Celeste Katz, the NYC Board of Elections has the unofficial total for 100% of precincts at Storobin +120, 10756 to 10636.  AP now matches this.

Also, per Board of Elections, 1194 absentees were returned, 437 were invalid, 757 were valid.  2090 were issued in total.  At any rate, we won't know a winner on this one tonight.

Right now, the margin would be just outside that of a mandatory recount, fyi.

Where is NY Jew now?

Of the 757, how many do you expect to successfully challenged by either campaign before they are opened and counted?

I have no clue there, but as indicated in the second article NY Jew posted, Storobin's lead is now up to +143, as of yesterday.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 22, 2012, 02:01:28 pm
That's basically a lot closer than I expected.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on March 22, 2012, 08:07:11 pm
That's basically a lot closer than I expected.

For who? The conventional wisdom was safe D, and given Dem bloodletting over the past couple of days, obviously they held to that. Of course with the NY State Senate Dems, nothing is ever safe D, so who knows.

I personally suspected it would be close for a number of reasons.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on March 22, 2012, 10:19:20 pm
That's basically a lot closer than I expected.

For who? The conventional wisdom was safe D, and given Dem bloodletting over the past couple of days, obviously they held to that. Of course with the NY State Senate Dems, nothing is ever safe D, so who knows.

I personally suspected it would be close for a number of reasons.
Whatever the reasons, if Storobin wins, the Senate goes to 33R, 29D.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 22, 2012, 11:07:08 pm
Didn't that district even vote for McCain? Don't see how that could be safe D.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 23, 2012, 06:39:38 am
Who cares anyway? The real battle over who controls the senate was given during redistricting and there Cuomo screwed royally his fellow Democrats.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 23, 2012, 09:01:05 pm
Who cares anyway? The real battle over who controls the senate was given during redistricting and there Cuomo screwed royally his fellow Democrats.

I think most would agree it's more likely than not the Democrats take the Senate before the end of the decade even under the current map.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Brittain33 on March 24, 2012, 05:28:50 am
Wasn't this district one of the McCainiest in NY, beating out most R-held districts?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 24, 2012, 05:37:32 am
Wasn't this district one of the McCainiest in NY, beating out most R-held districts?
Yeah; not that that's actually surprising given how there are few sizable really heavily GOP parts in the state and how gerried the upstate is. I thought this seat a goner for the Dems without the incumbent.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on March 24, 2012, 09:25:39 am
Didn't that district even vote for McCain? Don't see how that could be safe D.

Yes.  I'm just giving you the conventional wisdom, which of course, is also based on the 3-1 Dem registration advantage and the fact that Democrats have held seats in this area since rocks cooled.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on March 24, 2012, 09:26:57 am
Who cares anyway? The real battle over who controls the senate was given during redistricting and there Cuomo screwed royally his fellow Democrats.

I think most would agree it's more likely than not the Democrats take the Senate before the end of the decade even under the current map.

Never ever underestimate the power of the NY State Senate Democrats to screw everything up.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Torie on March 24, 2012, 10:15:53 am
Isn't this senate seat converted to a much safer Pub one under the new map?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 24, 2012, 01:30:30 pm
Who cares anyway? The real battle over who controls the senate was given during redistricting and there Cuomo screwed royally his fellow Democrats.

I think most would agree it's more likely than not the Democrats take the Senate before the end of the decade even under the current map.

Never ever underestimate the power of the NY State Senate Democrats to screw everything up.

You only need to remember how they let it slip from them in 2010 for that, really...


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on March 24, 2012, 02:33:36 pm
Who cares anyway? The real battle over who controls the senate was given during redistricting and there Cuomo screwed royally his fellow Democrats.

I think most would agree it's more likely than not the Democrats take the Senate before the end of the decade even under the current map.

Never ever underestimate the power of the NY State Senate Democrats to screw everything up.

You only need to remember how they let it slip from them in 2010 for that, really...

The whole, relatively fresh horror of that experience is part of the reason why I can never put any faith or confidence in BRTD's hope, though national numbers would so suggest otherwise. 

After all, the Independent Democratic Conference is still alive and well, and working with Republicans, and waiting to exact tribute from whoever wants control if the Republicans fall to 31 or under again.  And isn't Mr. Incompetent John Sampson still in control of the Democrats?  And isn't Ruben Diaz still around, looking to cause any trouble he can?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 24, 2012, 09:33:26 pm
Isn't this senate seat converted to a much safer Pub one under the new map?

I understand it is basically carved up, the Dem parts given to neighboring Dem incumbents, some of the Republican parts used to shore up the other remaining Republican in Brooklyn, and the Orthodox parts used to create what Sam is calling "the NY Jew seat". Of course that new seat probably votes Republican and even though it might not I'd honestly rather have a "normal" Republican than someone like Dov Hikind.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Sam Spade on March 24, 2012, 09:44:54 pm
Isn't this senate seat converted to a much safer Pub one under the new map?

I understand it is basically carved up, the Dem parts given to neighboring Dem incumbents, some of the Republican parts used to shore up the other remaining Republican in Brooklyn, and the Orthodox parts used to create what Sam is calling "the NY Jew seat". Of course that new seat probably votes Republican and even though it might not I'd honestly rather have a "normal" Republican than someone like Dov Hikind.

Pretty much right on what happened - even though a little bit of it goes to try and make Addabo a bit more marginal.  Storobin has said that he will run in the new seat.  So has Fidler, though that may well be a bluff after this result.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on April 11, 2012, 04:27:34 pm
Oklahoma House District 71 stays Republican by one vote in a recount:  http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?subjectid=11&articleid=20120411_11_0_Arecou120758 (http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?subjectid=11&articleid=20120411_11_0_Arecou120758)


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 25, 2012, 07:28:36 am
Might as well get this over with: Dems picked up my seat (169th), 54% - 46%. Disappointing for me on a personal level as well. They failed to nab the Lehigh Valley seat though.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: rbt48 on April 25, 2012, 08:49:38 am
Might as well get this over with: Dems picked up my seat (169th), 54% - 46%. Disappointing for me on a personal level as well. They failed to nab the Lehigh Valley seat though.
How could this have occurred?  Was there a weak GOP candidate, high turnout for a key Democratic primary, a strong Democratic candidate?  Is this an indicator of trouble for the GOP statewide in November?


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on April 25, 2012, 08:50:55 am
The DFL held that seat I mentioned earlier:

Independence    LEON GREENSLIT    364   5.06   
Republican    GREGG KULBERG    2912   40.48   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    LYLE KOENEN    3914   54.41   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    3   0.04

Of course, we'll have to see which new seat Koenen runs in and all. All are less favorable.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: krazen1211 on April 25, 2012, 09:00:33 am
Might as well get this over with: Dems picked up my seat (169th), 54% - 46%. Disappointing for me on a personal level as well. They failed to nab the Lehigh Valley seat though.
How could this have occurred?  Was there a weak GOP candidate, high turnout for a key Democratic primary, a strong Democratic candidate?  Is this an indicator of trouble for the GOP statewide in November?

The 169th district is inside Philadelphia; and was held by a long term GOP incumbent.

The Lehigh Valley seat was won by Obama 50-48, but the GOP just got 60% there.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: smoltchanov on April 25, 2012, 09:09:24 am
The 169th district is inside Philadelphia; and was held by a long term GOP incumbent.

The Lehigh Valley seat was won by Obama 50-48, but the GOP just got 60% there.
That doesn't mean that Obama can't win it again in November)))


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 25, 2012, 09:55:39 am
Might as well get this over with: Dems picked up my seat (169th), 54% - 46%. Disappointing for me on a personal level as well. They failed to nab the Lehigh Valley seat though.
How could this have occurred?  Was there a weak GOP candidate, high turnout for a key Democratic primary, a strong Democratic candidate?  Is this an indicator of trouble for the GOP statewide in November?

The Democrat was a top union official. They had a ton of money and an army. The GOP candidate wasn't weak. Believe me. :P

It's a swing district but I wouldn't say that this is troubling for the party statewide. The union the candidate was connected to made this their priority and their turnout machine was too big to overcome. That and the fact that they had a barrage of attacks/lies against the Republican nominee in the final days.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on April 25, 2012, 09:46:33 pm
Hmmm, this is only about a 52% Obama district. I'm surprised such a district exists in Philly since the McCain precincts are so spread out.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 26, 2012, 07:50:08 am
Hmmm, this is only about a 52% Obama district. I'm surprised such a district exists in Philly since the McCain precincts are so spread out.

Like I said, it's a swing area. A few such areas do exist in Philly.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: BigSkyBob on May 14, 2012, 11:22:37 am
Storobin ahead by 27 votes going into hand recount of ballots:

http://politicker.com/2012/05/14/david-storobin-now-leads-by-24/


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: BigSkyBob on June 01, 2012, 12:13:51 am
Storobin(R) wins:

http://politicker.com/2012/05/david-storobin-wins-epic-state-senate-race/

Lightening strikes twice in Brooklyn!


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: NY Jew on June 01, 2012, 07:52:31 am
anyone still not think that being in favor gay "marriage" is a loosing issue in many parts of NY.
first Weprin, and now Fidler.

lets not forget that Alsei is not running for election due to his vote.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on January 15, 2013, 02:37:01 am
Two upcoming ones in Minnesota, as the incumbents resigned just after being re-elected and taking office to take some cushy positions.

In 14A, which is basically the south and west of St. Cloud plus some suburbs, Steve Gottwalt, known being the main sponsor of the gay marriage amendment and being accused of covering up priest abuse in the St. Cloud Diocese while he was communications director is resigning to head some sort of radiology lobbying group in state. The district is fairly conservative (the liberals in St. Cloud live in 14B), but was still won by Romney by only about 2.5%, and Gottawalt won with a not exactly Earth shattering 54/46 margin. However it seems the likely GOP candidate will be former Rep. Dan Severson, who unsuccessfully ran against Ritchie for Sec of State in 2010. He has one primary opponent, but should win easily I'll guess. Only one Democrat has filed, who I don't know much about. I'll call it likely R.

In 19A, near my old home in Mankato, Terry Morrow is resigning to join up with some think tank in Chicago. The district is basically North Mankato, the nearby college town of St. Peter and some very conservative rural areas. Historically a swing district, but it's shifted. Obama beat Romney by 7 points there. Of course the predecessor seat voted for Emmer in 2010, but just by about a point and with 42%. Still the only Republican who's filed is the guy who lost to Walz, Allen Quist, a perennial candidate nutjob (who granted used to serve in the legislature, but hasn't for over 20 years now.) To put things into perspective, Quist says that abortion for any reason except to save the mother's life should be treated as a first degree homicide under the law, and compared gay counseling and student groups at my alma matter to letting the Ku Klux Klan set up a chapter there because both are "breeding grounds of evil". Kind of odd since it is kind of a swing seat, but you know how state legislative races go. I'm calling this safe D unless someone else gets in. There are four Democrats running so the primary later this month is the relevant race, but I don't know much about them. I should research more being so close to my old home.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on April 02, 2013, 08:44:59 pm
Republicans won a special election for the 12th Essex District (parts of Peabody) in Massachusetts today. The seat became open when Democratic Rep. Joyce Spiliotis died of cancer earlier this year.

Twelfth Essex
Cole (R) - 1,878
Dunne (D) - 1,805
Gravel (I) - 1,654

http://www.redmassgroup.com/diary/16714/republican-cole-wins-peabody-special-state-rep-election

Leah Cole is a 24-year-old nurse with no past political experience.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 03, 2013, 09:02:50 am
This was apparently a big upset. The Independent candidate said he had no regrets. Any chance he runs again in 2014? The Dem already said she'll be back for a rematch.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Brittain33 on April 04, 2013, 02:16:21 pm
This was apparently a big upset. The Independent candidate said he had no regrets. Any chance he runs again in 2014? The Dem already said she'll be back for a rematch.

If he does, either he or the Dem will win. 16,000 votes were cast in this district in the last off-year election so I'm guessing that the 24-year-old R nurse won't be able to get enough to win even if the Dems split their votes cleanly down the middle.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mr.Phips on April 04, 2013, 04:22:04 pm
This was apparently a big upset. The Independent candidate said he had no regrets. Any chance he runs again in 2014? The Dem already said she'll be back for a rematch.

If he does, either he or the Dem will win. 16,000 votes were cast in this district in the last off-year election so I'm guessing that the 24-year-old R nurse won't be able to get enough to win even if the Dems split their votes cleanly down the middle.


Yeah, its was pretty much a perfect storm.  I believe that the independent who got nearly as many votes as the Dem was a Democratic town councilman in Peabody. 


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on April 04, 2013, 05:44:50 pm
This was apparently a big upset. The Independent candidate said he had no regrets. Any chance he runs again in 2014? The Dem already said she'll be back for a rematch.

If he does, either he or the Dem will win. 16,000 votes were cast in this district in the last off-year election so I'm guessing that the 24-year-old R nurse won't be able to get enough to win even if the Dems split their votes cleanly down the middle.

That's not something I'd say is for sure, since this is the type of district that voted for Brown and Baker. Seats like this have a tendency to stay in Republican hands, at least until the inevitable retirement happens.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: smoltchanov on April 04, 2013, 10:16:56 pm
This was apparently a big upset. The Independent candidate said he had no regrets. Any chance he runs again in 2014? The Dem already said she'll be back for a rematch.

If he does, either he or the Dem will win. 16,000 votes were cast in this district in the last off-year election so I'm guessing that the 24-year-old R nurse won't be able to get enough to win even if the Dems split their votes cleanly down the middle.

That's not something I'd say is for sure, since this is the type of district that voted for Brown and Baker. Seats like this have a tendency to stay in Republican hands, at least until the inevitable retirement happens.

Republican here is a Paulite, and, according to some sources, social conservative too. There are rather few legislative districts in Massachusetts where such positions are winning formula


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Brittain33 on May 01, 2013, 08:16:59 am
In Massachusetts' First Suffolk state senate district, it looks like the Dem primary was won by Rep. Linda Dorcena Forry, making her the Senate's only African-American member and first Haitian-American member if she wins the general.

This is the district that includes South Boston and was once represented by Lynch. Southie isn't large enough to control a primary any longer, nor quite so monolithic.


Title: Re: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
Post by: Mr.Phips on May 01, 2013, 05:18:42 pm
This was apparently a big upset. The Independent candidate said he had no regrets. Any chance he runs again in 2014? The Dem already said she'll be back for a rematch.

If he does, either he or the Dem will win. 16,000 votes were cast in this district in the last off-year election so I'm guessing that the 24-year-old R nurse won't be able to get enough to win even if the Dems split their votes cleanly down the middle.

That's not something I'd say is for sure, since this is the type of district that voted for Brown and Baker. Seats like this have a tendency to stay in Republican hands, at least until the inevitable retirement happens.

Most of the Massachussetts Republicans who have held state House and Senate seats like this were quite moderate and in the Richard Tisei/Scott Brown mold.