Talk Elections

A green day for Iran
Will the Iranians demonstrating on Jerusalem Day be pro-Palestine or anti-Ahmadinejad?

Meir Javedanfar

International Jerusalem Day (Rooze jahaniye Qods) is observed in Iran on the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan. This year it falls on 18 September. Jerusalem Day was designated by the late Ayatollah Khomeini as a day of support for Palestinians and opposition against Israel. It is a day when the government issues permits for hundreds of thousands of Iranians to pour on to the streets and demonstrate.

Some attend due to genuine support for Palestinians. Others take part because of government pressure. This is especially true of civil servants. Some fear that failure to attend could damage their job security and prospects. When it comes to the number of demonstrators, there is no limit on how many people can come out to the streets. In fact, as far as the government is concerned, the more the merrier.

This is in direct contrast to demonstrations held by reformists. The Ahmadinejad administration, using violence and intimidation, has done its utmost to limit such protests, if not eradicate them entirely. This has forced many of Iran's demonstrators to come up with new ways of voicing their opposition, using seemingly legal means. One popular method is going on top of their roofs to shout "Allahu akbar" (God is greatest). This is not against the law. In fact, this is one of the methods of protest used by those who took part in the 1979 revolution.

With Jerusalem Day approaching, opposition forces in Iran are sensing another opportunity to vent their anger under legal guises. As far as they are concerned, it is legal for all Iranians to protest openly on the streets on that day. Participation is not constrained by domestic political ideology. Therefore, in cities such as Tehran, there are plans by reformists to turn this year's Jerusalem Day into a green (reformist) day.

What is particularly clever about this strategy is that although green is considered as a hostile colour to Ahmadinejad, when it comes to Palestinian politics, it is a favourable colour (even to Ahmadinejad supporters), because it is the colour of Hamas. Therefore on Jerusalem Day it will be difficult for the government to ban people or to arrest them for wearing green, as they could use the excuse that they are showing solidarity with Hamas. In fact, we may even see some of Ahmadinejad's supporters wearing green.

This year's Jerusalem Day will be an important opportunity for Iran's reformists. They are likely to take full advantage, since the number of demonstrations in Iran has been decreasing due to the violent government crackdown.

This is in addition to other problems facing Iran's reformists before and after the recent presidential elections. One of them is the fact that their numbers were limited to major cities, especially Tehran. Towns and villages in rural areas showed less support because they are not connected to the internet, which made it more difficult for the reformists to campaign and mobilise support before and after the elections.

There is also the fact that many of the demonstrators were students. The majority of Iran's students are in Tehran or other big cities such as Shiraz and Esfahan. Regional towns and villages do not have big universities, so anti-government activities cannot spread through the student population.

Furthermore, the pro-reformist demonstrations in Iran have become synonymous with Tehran, especially its northern and western parts, which are considered the most affluent. In Iran, there is a certain amount of animosity held towards rich parts of Tehran, which has made it more difficult for reformists to persuade Iranians from other parts of the country to join them.

When it comes to aiding the Palestinians, there are many reformists who believe in an "Iran first" policy, meaning that Iran's welfare and national interest should be placed above that of its allies in Gaza. Although this does not mean that they are anti-Palestinian, it does reflect the frustration that many Iranians feel towards Ahmadinejad's policy. During the recent Gaza war, the reformist Kargozaran newspaper published an advert condemning both Israel and Hamas. This was unprecedented. No one had dared to criticise Hamas before in the mass media. The newspaper's staff were subsequently threatened and its offices shut down.

Despite such feelings, attending the demonstrations and showing solidarity with the Palestinians could benefit the reformists – especially in light of the recent accusations by Yadollah Javani, the head of the political bureau of the pro-Ahmadinejad Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who said that Clinton, Obama and Israel had supported the reformists in Iran. By participating in the Jerusalem Day demonstrations, the reformists could make it more difficult for the conservatives to level such accusations against them.

The reformists are likely to be helped further by the publication of a report in Tabnak, Iran's most popular news analysis website, that Mohammad Mehdi Zahedi, who served as Ahmadinejad's minister of science, held a meeting with his Israeli counterpart in Indonesia in 2008. This has made Ahmadinejad, who prides himself on being an ardent enemy of Israel, look like a hypocrite, much to the reformists' delight.

The Iranian government hailed the 2006 Palestinian elections, which Hamas won, as fully transparent, fair and just. Perhaps what Iran's leaders didn't realise is that those elections, and the manner in which they were carried out, were setting an example for the people of Iran as well – and now they want the same for their own country.