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Election Archive => 2010 Elections => Topic started by: nkpatel1279 on October 18, 2009, 10:47:58 am



Title: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 18, 2009, 10:47:58 am
Looking at the States will will have an effect in the 2012 US House Redistricting process.
States that will likely have a Democratic Governor and Democratic Controlled State Legislature in 2011.
1)California- (Jerry Brown-D). Republican US House Members from marginal districts (Lungren-CA-3,Calvert-CA-44,and Bilbrary-CA-50) will have their seats eliminated or be placed in Democratic favorable districts. +3D/-3R
2)Illinios-(Dan Hynes or Pat Quinn-D)- One GOP seat in Downstate IL will be eliminated. (Shimkus-R). -1R. Another goal is getting rid of GOP US House Members from Chicago Area. (Roskam-IL6) and Biggert-IL-13).  -3R/+2D
3)Massachusetts(Patrick-D)- -1D due to lose in a seat in the US House Delegation.
4)Minnesota(Ryback-D or Dayton-D)- Bachmann(MN-6) seat gets eliminated. -1R
5)New York(Andrew Cuomo-D or Tom Suozzi-D)-  NY-26(Lee) seat gets eliminated. -1R

 


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 19, 2009, 12:56:29 pm
New York Congressional Redistricting- 28-0 Democratic Congressional Delegation.  Giving NY-20(Murphy),NY-23(Owens),NY-24(Arcuri),and NY-29(Massa) safer Districts plus eliminating NY-26(Lee) and getting rid of King(NY-3).
1)Trade NY-23(Owens)-Madison,Onieda,and Lewis County base with portions of NY-25(Maffei)Onandaga county base. NY-25 becomes less Democratic but Maffei is still safe.
2)Trade NY-20(Murphy)-Otsego,Delaware,and Greene County base with portions of NY-21(Tonko) Albany county base. NY-21 becomes less Democratic but Tonko is still safe.
3)Trade NY-24(Arcuri)- Broome County base with NY-22(Hinchey's) Tompkins County base. NY-22(Hinchey's district) becomes less Democratic but still safe.
4)Regarding Massa(NY-29). Massa(NY-29) will pick up NY-27(Higgins) Chatagua and portions of his Erie County Base. NY-27(Higgins-D) and NY-26(Lee-R) will be placed in the same district containg Erie County and parts of Niagara County - The Monroe,Orleans,Genessee,Wyoming,and Livingston portion of NY-26 will go to NY-28. (Slaughter-D) district is less Democratic but still safe.
5)Trade NY-3(King-R)-Suffolk County base with NY-2(Isreal'-D)-Nassau County base.
6)We make NY-13(McMahon-D) a safe Democratic district by giving Brooklyn to NY-8(Nadler-D). and picking up portions of NY-8(Nadler-D)-Manhattan base.
7)We make Hall(NY-19)-safe Democratic by giving Rockland and portions of Orange County to NY-18(Lowey-D). and NY-19(Hall-D) will pick up portions of Lowey's Westchester County base.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 19, 2009, 02:49:43 pm
Illinios Redistricting- Democratic US House Members from marginal districts- Bean(IL-8),Seals(IL-10),Halverson(IL-11),and Foster(IL-14) are safe due to Obama's 2012 re-election coattails. Their districts will be safer in the future elections. Schimkus(IL-19) district gets eliminated. Springfield goes to IL-17(Hare-D),St Louis goes to IL-12(Costello-D) and rural SE goes to IL-15(Johnson-R).
IL-13(Biggert-R) trades her Cook county base with portions of IL-3(Lipinski-D)- Cook county.Chicago base.
IL-6 (Roskam-R)- picks up the Western part of IL-9(Shakowsky-D). IL-9 picks up the Eastern part of IL-5(Quigley-D). IL-5 picks up the eastern Dupage county part of IL-6.


Title: US House Redistricting. -IL
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 20, 2009, 11:30:01 am
Getting rid of Roskam-IL-6,Biggert-IL-13,and Manzullo-IL-16 and protecting Bean-IL-8,whoever wins IL-10,Halverson-IL-11, and Foster-IL-14.
1)We place Foster-IL-14 and Manzullo-IL-16 in the same district with most of the voters from Foster's old district. It will include all of Kane County,Kendell County,DeKalb,Lee,Ogle-including Manzullo's home,and western part of DuPage County. The new IL-16 will include most of the old IL-16 plus portions of Rock Island County-IL-17.  The Bureau,Henry,and Whiteside portion of the old IL-14 will go to IL-17.
2)We carve up Biggert- IL-13- place Will County in IL-11(Halverson-D),Cook County in IL-3(Lipinski-D),and DuPage County in IL-6(Roskam-R). (Biggert-IL-13) and (Roskam-IL-6) will run in the same district. The new IL-6 will gain the western portions of IL-5(Quigley-D) and IL-9(Shakowsky-D)-It will be a safe DEM district. IL-9 will gain the Eastern portion of IL-5 will gain the northern part of IL-4. IL-4(Guitteriez-D) will gain the western part of IL-7 and northern part of IL-3. IL-7 will take the northern portions of IL-1, IL-1 will take the northern portion of IL-2 and IL-2 will will take in Will and Kendell.  a competive primary can help Democrats defeat Roskam-R.
3)IL-19(Shimkus-R) district gets eliminated. Springfield portion goes to IL-17, St Louis portion goes to IL-12. rest goes to IL-15.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: Badger on October 20, 2009, 12:13:20 pm
How interesting. Please, tell me more.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: cannonia on October 22, 2009, 08:34:07 am
Looking at the States will will have an effect in the 2012 US House Redistricting process.
States that will likely have a Democratic Governor and Democratic Controlled State Legislature in 2011.
1)California- (Jerry Brown-D). Republican US House Members from marginal districts (Lungren-CA-3,Calvert-CA-44,and Bilbrary-CA-50) will have their seats eliminated or be placed in Democratic favorable districts. +3D/-3R

I will continue to point out to the Democrats here that the more Republican areas of the state (Sacramento suburbs, San Joaquin Valley, Inland Empire) have been the fastest growing.  Unless the bursting of the housing bubble has dramatically undone this migration (unlikely, given how the housing market is heating up again), it will be difficult to eliminate the "marginal" districts.  It's also dubious how marginal some of them are, especially if they survived the scandals and wave elections of '06 and '08.

Also, ask yourself whether Darrell Steinberg (term limited in 2014) is more interested in a safe urban Sacramento seat (Matsui won't stay in office forever), or a diluted, mixed urban-suburban-rural seat.  California state legislators don't have that long in office, and they gerrymandered the Congressional districts last time with that in mind.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 22, 2009, 09:08:55 am
I was not suggesting that we make marginal districts like Lungren-CA-3,Calvert-CA-44,and Bilbray-CA-50 by trading Democratic voters in neighboring Safe Democratic Districts.


Title: Re: US House Redistricting. -IL
Post by: muon2 on October 23, 2009, 07:25:09 am
Getting rid of Roskam-IL-6,Biggert-IL-13,and Manzullo-IL-16 and protecting Bean-IL-8,whoever wins IL-10,Halverson-IL-11, and Foster-IL-14.
1)We place Foster-IL-14 and Manzullo-IL-16 in the same district with most of the voters from Foster's old district. It will include all of Kane County,Kendell County,DeKalb,Lee,Ogle-including Manzullo's home,and western part of DuPage County. The new IL-16 will include most of the old IL-16 plus portions of Rock Island County-IL-17.  The Bureau,Henry,and Whiteside portion of the old IL-14 will go to IL-17.
2)We carve up Biggert- IL-13- place Will County in IL-11(Halverson-D),Cook County in IL-3(Lipinski-D),and DuPage County in IL-6(Roskam-R). (Biggert-IL-13) and (Roskam-IL-6) will run in the same district. The new IL-6 will gain the western portions of IL-5(Quigley-D) and IL-9(Shakowsky-D)-It will be a safe DEM district. IL-9 will gain the Eastern portion of IL-5 will gain the northern part of IL-4. IL-4(Guitteriez-D) will gain the western part of IL-7 and northern part of IL-3. IL-7 will take the northern portions of IL-1, IL-1 will take the northern portion of IL-2 and IL-2 will will take in Will and Kendell.  a competive primary can help Democrats defeat Roskam-R.
3)IL-19(Shimkus-R) district gets eliminated. Springfield portion goes to IL-17, St Louis portion goes to IL-12. rest goes to IL-15.

You haven't paid attention to VRA-required minority districts. IL-7 cannot afford to lose its western end to IL-4 since that reduces the Black vote in IL-7 and the Hispanic vote in IL-4. If IL-7 compensates by moving into IL-1 and 2 too far, then it is very hard to keep both those districts majority Black. In any case neither IL-1 or IL-2 can go anywhere near Kendall without antirely sacrificing their Black majority.

IL-7 will stay the same in the west and add just enough from IL-1 to add the necessary population. IL-1 moves into IL-3 in far SW Cook and IL-2 may stretch down to eastern Kankakee to add the needed population. There aren't many options to maintain three Black-majority seats.

The easiest move for IL-4 is into IL-3's Chicago and near Cook suburban area. Projections indicate that combining the northern part of IL-4 with parts of IL-5 and IL-6 will permit the formation of a second Hispanic-majority seat. Again this constrains a lot of the moves you suggest.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 23, 2009, 01:40:06 pm
Illinios Redistricting plan.
IL-1(Rush-D) absorbs the Cook County portion of the old IL-13. The new IL-1 will be a 80-20 Obama-D. and will remain a CBC District.
IL-2 (Jackson-D)absorbs the Eastern Will and Kankakee portion of the old IL-11. The new IL-2 will be 80-20 Obama-D. will remain a CBC District.
IL-3 (Lipinski-D vs Biggert-R) absorbs the DuPage County portion of the old IL-13. The new IL-3 will be 60-40 Obama-D (Lipinski-D) is favored to defeat Biggert-R.
IL-4 (Guitteriez-D)- absorbs the central portion of the old IL-7. will be a 85-15 Obama-D. will remain a Hispanic Majority District.
IL-5(Quigley-D)-absorbs- the northern DuPage and Cook County portion of IL-6. will be a 65-35 Obama-D- Quigley-D remains safe.
IL-6(Roskam-R)-absorbs the Western portions of IL-4 and IL-7. will be a 75-25 Obama-D will become Hispanic Majority District- Roskam-R loses re-election.
IL-7(Whoever replaces Davis-D)- absorbs the Eastern portion of the old IL-5. will be an 80-20 Obama district but it will be a minority coalition district. The White Liberal voters from old IL-5 will replace minority voters that went to IL-6.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 23, 2009, 02:23:47 pm
IL-8(new District-D)- It consist the portions of the old IL-1,IL-2,and IL-3. It will be a 75-25 Obama District. It will be a coalition majority District.
IL-9(Bean-D) no change- Bean-D is pretty safe. 55-45 Obama-D District.
IL-10(Shakowsky-D)- trades the Cook County portions with the new IL-10. It will be a 65-25 percent Obama-D District.
IL-11(Seals-D or Hamos-D)- see IL-10. It will be a 65-35 percent Obama-D District.
IL-12 (Halverson-D)- absorbs the Will County portion of the old IL-13. It will be a 55-45 percent Obama-D District.
IL-13(Costello-D)- absorbs the Madison/St Louis portion of the old IL-19. It will be a 55-45 percent Obama-D Distirct.
IL-14 (Foster-D) remains the same. Foster-D is favored to win re-election. 55-45 Obama District.
IL-15(Johnson-R vs Schimkus-R)- It will be a 55-45 McCain-R District. Safe Republican.
IL-16 (Manzullo-R)- no change- It will be a 55-45 Obama District-
IL-17(Hare-D)-absorbs Springfield Portion of IL-19- It will be a 55-45 Obama District- Safe. DEM.
IL-18(Schrock-R)- absorbs portions of the old IL-15. It will be a 55-45 McCain District- Safe GOP.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: ajc0918 on October 23, 2009, 04:04:23 pm
I know it's not a dem held legislature. But can you do Florida?


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: muon2 on October 23, 2009, 10:50:38 pm
Illinios Redistricting plan.
IL-1(Rush-D) absorbs the Cook County portion of the old IL-13. The new IL-1 will be a 80-20 Obama-D. and will remain a CBC District.
IL-2 (Jackson-D)absorbs the Eastern Will and Kankakee portion of the old IL-11. The new IL-2 will be 80-20 Obama-D. will remain a CBC District.
IL-3 (Lipinski-D vs Biggert-R) absorbs the DuPage County portion of the old IL-13. The new IL-3 will be 60-40 Obama-D (Lipinski-D) is favored to defeat Biggert-R.
IL-4 (Guitteriez-D)- absorbs the central portion of the old IL-7. will be a 85-15 Obama-D. will remain a Hispanic Majority District.
IL-5(Quigley-D)-absorbs- the northern DuPage and Cook County portion of IL-6. will be a 65-35 Obama-D- Quigley-D remains safe.
IL-6(Roskam-R)-absorbs the Western portions of IL-4 and IL-7. will be a 75-25 Obama-D will become Hispanic Majority District- Roskam-R loses re-election.
IL-7(Whoever replaces Davis-D)- absorbs the Eastern portion of the old IL-5. will be an 80-20 Obama district but it will be a minority coalition district. The White Liberal voters from old IL-5 will replace minority voters that went to IL-6.


Minority coalition districts are not supported by the VRA. IL-7 will have to remain Black-majority to qualify so you cannot take the central and western parts to form other districts without losing a majority-minority district.

The Hispanic areas needed to make two districts from the current IL-4 are in the current IL-3 and 5. There's only a sliver of Hispanic-majority area in IL-6 and it doesn't abut the population in IL-4 without going through IL-5. Nobody lives in the western loop of IL-4, it primarily consists of parks, railways and cemeteries.

Your proposal for a Dem in IL-5 may work, but it won't be Quigley unless he moves. He lives in the eastern part of his district with most of its population. To have Quigley still live in a district that stretches across northern DuPage would have too many people. If you take out the Hispanic parts of his district which are in the west, the remainder will have to come from Schakowsky's district.

You don't explain what happens to the western part of Biggert's district which includes Naperville. It's been one of the fastest growing areas of the state and leans R. Foster's district includes the fastest growing county in the nation and he has to lose population. You don't say what areas he loses and where those areas end up.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 24, 2009, 12:38:53 pm
IL-1(Rush-D)- gains the northern Southside Chicago portion of IL-2.
IL-2(Jackson-D)-gains the Eastern Will and Kankakee portion of IL-11.
IL-3(new-D)- The Southern portion of IL-4,The Eastern portion of IL-3, and The Northern portion of IL-1. This will be a Hispanic Majority District.
IL-4(Guitteriez-D)-The Northern portion of IL-4, The Western portion of IL-5 and SouthEastern portion of IL-6.  It will remain a Hispanic Majority District.
IL-5(Quigley-D)- gains the SouthWestern portion of IL-9.
IL-6(Lipinski-D)- gains the Cook County portion of IL-13.
IL-7(OPEN-Davis-D)- remains the same. CBC District.
IL-8(Bean-D)- loses McHenry County to IL-16 but gains Northern Kane County from IL-14.
IL-9(Schakowsky-D)- gains the SouthWestern portion of IL-10 and Northeastern portion of IL-6. Remains a Safe Democratic majority District.
IL-10(Seals-D or Hamos-D)- gains the NorthEastern portion of IL-9.
IL-11(Halverson-D)- gains Will County portion of IL-13.



Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 24, 2009, 01:08:31 pm
IL-12(Costello-D)- gains the St Louis Suburb portion of IL-19.
IL-13 (Roskam-R vs Biggert-R)- Western Cook and DuPage portion of old IL-6 and DuPage portion of IL-13. Competitive Republican leaning District.
IL-14(Foster-D)- gains the Henry,Knox,and Fulton portion of IL-17. becomes a safe Dem District.
IL-15(Manzullo-R)- gains McHenry County but loses the Jo Davies,Carroll,and Whiteside to the new IL-16.
IL-16(Hare-D)- gains Jo Davies,Carroll,and Whiteside from the old IL-16 and the Springfield portion of IL-18 and IL-19.
IL-17(Schrock-R)- gains the McLean,DeWitt,and Champaign portion of the old IL-15.
IL-18(Shimkus-R vs Johnson-R)- Rural parts of IL-19 and IL-15- Safe Republican District.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 24, 2009, 01:22:06 pm
Regarding Florida- The State is suppose to gain 2 new seats.  The GOP State Legislature and Governor Bill McCollum's goal will be to defeat Ron Klien-FL-22, Alan Grayson-FL-8,and Suzanne Kozmas-FL-24.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 24, 2009, 02:07:39 pm
Next Week, Bill Owens-D is favored to win the Special Election for the NY-23 US House Seat. The goal will be to protect Owens,Arcuri,Murphy,Massa, and to an extent Maffei and Hall.
NY-23(Owens-D)- Take out Fulton and Hamilton and give it to NY-21(Tonko-D). but gain Essex and Northern Part of Warren County from NY-20(Murphy-D).
NY-20(Murphy-D)- Gains the Rensselear portion of NY-21.
NY-21(Tonko-D) remains a safe DEM District.
NY-24(Arcuri-D)- Trade NY-24(Tioga County base-D) with portions of NY-22(Hinchey's-D)Tompkins County base. NY-24 becames more Democratic.
NY-19(Hall-D)- Trade NY-19(Rockland base) with portions of NY-18(Westchester County base.
NY- 25(Maffei-D)-remains the same.
NY-26(Lee-R) gets eliminated with Republican Counties of Wyoming,Genessee,Orleans,Monroe,and Livingston going to NY-28. Erie and Niagara going to NY-27.
NY-29 will gain NY-27. Chautagua and Erie County base.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 26, 2009, 08:52:49 am
2010 Illinios Redistricting Plan. make IL-8(Bean-D),IL-10(Seals-D),IL-11(Halverson-D),and IL-14(Foster-D) safe Democratic Districts.
IL-8(Bean-D) will lose McHenry County to IL-16(Manzullo-R) but gain Northern Kane County from IL-14(Foster-D). IL-14(Foster-D) will gain Henry,Knox,and Fulton parts of IL-17(Hare-D). IL-17(Hare-D) will pick up Whiteside,Carroll,Jo Davies,and Stephenson parts of IL-16(Manzullo-R).
IL-10(Seals-D) Trade the Western portion of IL-10(Seals-D) Cook County base with the Northeastern portion of IL-9(Shakowsky-D).
IL-11(Halverson-D) loses Eastern Will and Kankakee county to IL-2(Jackson-D)-still remains a CBC District. but gains IL-13(Biggert-R) Will County base.
IL-13(Biggert-R) district is carved up with Will going to IL-11(Halverson-D),DuPage going to IL-6(Roskam-R) and Cook going to IL-3(Lipinski-D). IL-6(Roskam-R) and IL-13(Biggert-R) will be placed in the same District. The eastern portion of IL-6 will be used to create two Hispanic Districts. the northestern part of IL-6 plus the Western part of IL-5(Quigley-D) and the northern part of IL-4(Guitteriez-D) will be the new IL-4(Guitteriez-D).


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 26, 2009, 09:06:00 am
The southeastern portion of IL-6 plus the northern portion of IL-3(Lipinski-D) and the southern portion of IL-4(Guitteriez-D) will be the new IL-6.
IL-5(Quigley-D) will pick up the northeastern portion of IL-7 to pick up loss population.
IL-7 (whoever replaces Davis-D) will pick up the Northern part of IL-1(Rush-D).
IL-1(Rush-D) picks up the Northern part of IL-2(Jackson-D). IL-19 gets eliminated with Springfield going to IL-17,St Louis going to IL-12 and Rural SE portion of to IL-15.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: ill ind on October 27, 2009, 03:46:25 pm
  Last year I tried to redraw Illinois Congressional Districts based on projected populations--including Chicago neighborhoods. (Muon 2, I believe I sent you a copy of the maps I mdae)
  I do not belive it is possible to get rid of a downstate district.  For one, they took the hit after the last census, so it would be politically unpopular to cut out anothe district there.  I figure there will be some combination of present day 5,9, and 10 into 2 districts instead of 3.

  Getting Il-4 to be remain Hispanic is no problem.  It was an incredibly difficult balancing act to get Il-1,Il-2, and Il-7 to all remain majority African American.  I recall keeping the portion of Illinois 7 west of the Chicago River and then expanding south into both Il-1 and north into present Il-5, and 9.  Also Il-1 became a long north-south Corridor between Blue Island/Robbins in the south and Rogers Park in the north.  Il-2 took in much of Il-1's suburban areas.  Anyways, my projection had all 3 with just over 50% AA population.  After 2020, you will likely see two Hispanic Districts and 2 African American districts as the AA population of Chicago has become/is becoming too dispersed to populate 3 districts.

  I belive that the districts that had to shed people were 16, 11, and 14.

  I would post the maps, I made but do not know how.

Ill Ind



Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 27, 2009, 04:01:25 pm
2010 IL CD Redistricting Plan using Daves Redistricting Software.
The CBC Districts IL-1(Rush-D),IL-2(Jackson-D),and IL-7(Davis-D) remained the same but IL-2 picked up portions of Will County territory from IL-11 and IL-1 picked up portions of IL-3 Cook County and IL-7 picked up portions of IL-5 Chicago base to make up for loss population.
The IL-5th (Quigley-D) and IL-9(Schakowsky-D) remained the same but it picked up the Northeast portion of IL-6(Roskam-R).
IL-4(Guttereiz-D) remained the same.
IL-8(Bean-D) and IL-10(Seals-or Hamos-D) remained the same.
IL-3(Lipinksi-D) picked up portions of IL-13(Biggerts's Cook and DuPage County Base and a some portion of IL-6(Roskam's-R) Dupage County base.
IL-6(Roskam-R) and IL-13(Biggert-R) were placed in the same District- containing Will and DuPage parts of IL-13 and Southern DuPage portion of IL-6.
IL-14(Foster-D) was changed. It is now Eastern Kane County plus Western DuPage County remains plus The northern portion of IL-6.



Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 27, 2009, 04:27:34 pm
IL-11(Halverson-D) also changed- I took out the Bloomington portion of IL-11 and added in Western Kane,Kendall,and DeKalb portion of IL-14.
I created a suberb Republican District which can place (Manzullo,Johnson,Schrock) in the same District It included the Ogle and Northern DeKalb portion of IL-16, Lee,Bureau,and Henry portion of IL-14, It stretched down Bloomington, and went east to Iroquis County(IL-15) and South to Clay County (IL-19) and to Menard County(IL-18).  This is the new IL-13.
IL-15(Johnson-R) picked up the Southeastern portion of IL-19(Shimkus-R).
IL-12(Costello-D) remained the same but picked up portion of IL-19(Madison County base).
I created a new IL-18th(Schrock-R vs Schimkus-R)- it included the Springfield and Decatur portion of IL-17,IL-18,and IL-19 plus the Southern portion of IL-17/IL-18- It resembles the old IL-20th District. the district- Dick Durbin represented in the 1990's
IL-17(Hare-D)'s district picked up the Peoria portion of IL-18. including Schrock's home- the district is overwhelmingly Democratic so Schrock will have to run either in the new IL-13 against Manzullo or IL-18 against Schimkus-R. I created a new IL-16- which included the McHenry,Boone,Winnebage,Stephenson,Jo Davies,Carroll,and Whiteside COunty- I placed Manzullo-R' home in Ogle County in the new IL-13.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 27, 2009, 04:39:01 pm
IL-1(Rush-D) remains the same -no change.
IL-2(Jackson-D)- remains the same- no change.
IL-3(Lipinski-D)- remains the same- no change.
IL-4(Guitteriez-D)-remains the same no change.
IL-5(Quigley-D) remains the same no change.
*IL-3 and IL-5 picked up portions of IL-6 to make up loss population.
IL-6(Roskam-R vs Biggert-R)- it is a Northern Will/Southern DuPage COunty district. The new District favors Biggert-R.
IL-7(whoever Replaces Davis-D)-remains the same no change.
IL-8(Bean-D) remains the same no change.
IL-9(Shackowsky-D) remains the same no change- picks up portion of IL-6 Cook and DuPage County base.
IL-10(Seals or Hamos-D) remains the same but picks up some parts of IL-9(Shackowsky-D).
IL-11(Halverson-D)- includes Will,Kendell,Grundy,and LaSalle portion of IL-11 and West Kane,DeKalb,and Kendell portion of IL-14.
IL-12(Costello-D) remains the same-no change.
IL-13)(Foster-D)- includes the Eastern Kane and Western DuPage portion of IL-14 and NorthWest Cook and DuPage portion of IL-6.



Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 27, 2009, 04:54:04 pm
IL-14(Johnson-R)- remains the same plus it picks up the Southeast portion of IL-19 including David Phelps home in El Dorado. IL-14 is a Republican leaning District.
IL-15(new-D)- includes most of the old IL-16 except for Ogle and Northern DeKalb County. Manzullo-R is not a resident in IL-15. it picks up Whiteside and Northern Rock Island portions of IL-17.
IL-16(Hare-D vs Schrock-R)- it includes Peoria portion of IL-18 and most of IL-17. Schrock-R is an underdog in this district- Schrock will have to move into the new IL-18- which is a safe Republican district and run against Manzullo-R in the primary.
IL-17(Schimkus-R)- it includes all of Springfield,DeCatur and Southern parts of IL-17,and IL-18. and Schimkus's home in Madison County- It is a swing district.
IL-18(Manzullo-R vs Schrock-R)- This is a Superb Republican District- taking Republican parts of IL-16,IL-14,IL-11,IL-18,IL-15 and IL-19.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 28, 2009, 10:53:50 am
2010 IL- Redistricting plan updated.
IL-2(Jackson-D) remains the same but picks up portions of IL-1(Rush-D).
IL-1(Rush-D) remains the same but picks up portions of IL-7(Davis-D).
IL-7(Davis-D)remains the same but picks up the Eastern portions of IL-4(Guitteriez-D).
IL-4(Guitteriez-D) remained the same but picked up portions of IL-3(Lipininski-North)-IL-5(Quigley-South) and IL-6(Roskam-East).
IL-10(Seals or Hamos-D) remained the same but picked up portions of IL-9(Shakowsky-D).
IL-9(Shakowsky-D) and IL-5(Quigley-D) remained the same but picked up the Eastern portions of IL-6.
IL-3(Lipinski-D) remained the same but moved west taking the eastern portion of IL-13(Biggert-R) DuPage, Cook and Will County base.
Biggert-R and Roskam-R were placed in the new IL-13 which included the western part of Biggerts Will and DuPage COunty base and Roskams Southern DuPage County base including Roskam's home.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 28, 2009, 11:08:20 am
I created a new IL-6th District which included Northern DuPage County, Southwest Cook County, Northern Kane County,and Southern McHenry.
IL-8(Bean-D) remains the same but moves West into eastern Part of Winnebago(Rockford. taking the rest of Manzullo(IL-16) McHenry and Boone County base.
IL-14(Foster-D) remains the same but moves up North, taking Manzullo(IL-16) DeKalb,East Ogle,and Southern Winnebago(Rockford) base.
Manzullo-R, Schrock-R and Hare-D were placed in the new IL-16th District which included Western Winnebago and Ogle county and Jo Davies,Carroll,and Whiteside portion of the old IL-16, Hare-D(IL-17) base in Whiteside,Rock Island,Mercer,Henderson,Hancock,McDonough,Fulton,Knox,Henry,and IL-18(Schrock's Peoria) home.
IL-11(Halverson-D) remained the same but picked up schrock's Putnam,Stark and Marshall County base.
I created a new district IL-17 which included Eastern Peoria County,Woodford,Tazewell,Mason,Cass,Schuyler,Morgan,Sangamon(Springfield),Macon(Decatur),Christian,and Montgomery county, The new IL-17 is too Democratic for Schrock to run.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 28, 2009, 11:25:36 am
IL-12 (Costello-D).remains the same but picks up western Jersey and Calhoun County
IL-18(Schimkus-R) vs Schrock-R)- included Adams,Pike,Brown,Scott,Greene,Macoupin,east Madison, Bond,Clinton,Washington,Jefferson,Marion,Fayette,Shelby,Moultrie,Piatt, DeWitt,Logan,Menard,McLean,Ford,and Livingston.
IL-15(Johnson-R) represents the SouthEastern IL portion.
Manzullo-R seat is carved up into 4 districts- IL-8(Bean-D),IL-14(Foster-D) and IL-16(Hare-D) and Roskam-R and Biggert-R are placed in the same district. - a new District was created includes Northern DuPage COunty, Northern Kane, Southwestern Cook and Southern McHenry County. I created a new District that includes all of DeCauter,Springfield and parts of Peoria. the District will be too Democratic for Schrock to run. he will be forced to run in the new IL-18th against Schimkus-R.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 28, 2009, 02:57:45 pm
2010 Ohio Redistricting plan to get rid of Mean Jean give Boccieri,Space,Kilroy,Driehaus and Wilson safer Districts and make OH-3 a Democratic leaning District.
OH-1(Driehaus-D) is entirely within Hamilton COunty- Butler portion was removed and western part of Hamilton from OH-2 was added in.
OH-2(Austria vs Schmidt-R)- This includes most of the old OH-2 except for Schmidts home in Loveland. and the Republican parts of OH-3(Clinton and Highland) and OH-7(Fairfield,Greene,Pickaway,and Fayette).
OH-3(Turner-R)- The district includes all of Montgomery,and Clark County and parts of Greene.
OH-4(Jordan-R)-remains the same but picks up parts of OH-8.
OH-5(Latta-R)- remains the same but picks up parts of OH-4.
OH-6(Wilson-D)-remains the same but picks up Mahoning and Portage portions of old OH-17.
OH-7(Tiberi-R)- loses parts of his Columbus base to Kilroy but picks up Licking,Perry and Fairfield.
OH-8(Boehner-R vs Schimdt-R)- Includes most of the old OH-8 plus Schmidt's home.
OH-9(Kaptur-D)-remains the same but picks up parts of Lorian County.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 28, 2009, 03:10:46 pm
OH-10(Kucinich-D) remains the same but picks up portions of Lorian County.
OH-11(Fudge-D) remains the same but picks up Cayahoga and Lake County portions of the old OH-14.
OH-12(Kilroy-D) remains the same but picks up Columbus Areas from Tiberi.
OH-13(Sutton-D) remains the same but Includes all of Summit County.
OH-14(Ryan-D vs LaTourrette-R)- Includes most of the old OH-14 plus Ryan's home in Trumbull County.
OH-15(Space-D)-remains the same but picks up Athens and Belmont parts of OH-6.
OH-16(Boccieri-D)- remains the same but picks up Portage portions of OH-17 including Kent University.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 29, 2009, 10:58:40 am
2010 IL US House Redistricting plan to get rid of Roskam,Biggert,Manzullo,Schrock,Johnson,and Schimkus.
IL-1(Rush-D),IL-2(Jackson-D),IL-4(Guiteriez-D),and IL-7(whoever replaces Davis-D) remain the same but IL-2 takes the Southern portion of IL-1, IL-1 takes the North-East part of IL-3,and IL-7 takes in the SouthEastern portion of IL-5. IL-10(Seals or Hamos) takes in the Northern portion of IL-9.
IL-3(Lipinski-D) and IL-5(Quigley-D) as well as IL-9(Schakowky-D) move west. IL-3 takes in Cook and Eastern DuPage portion of IL-13. IL-5 and IL-9 take in the Eastern DuPage portion of IL-6.
Roskam (IL-6) and Biggert(IL-13) are place in the same District which includes All of Biggerts Will County, most of Biggerts DuPage County and the Southern part of Roskams DuPage County base. this is the new 13th.
The Remaining Areas of Roskam's DuPage and Cook County plus DuPage portion of IL-14(Foster-D) and NorthEastern Kane County and South Eastern McHenry.- I created an new Democratic leaning swing District.



Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 29, 2009, 11:12:31 am
Melissa Bean(IL-8). took in the most of Manzullo's(IL-16) McHenry County and NorthEast DeKalb County Base plus Eastern Boone County and NorthWestern part of Kane County. - The new IL-8 is competitve but Democratic leaning- Bean-D should be safe.
Bill Foster-(IL-14)- took in the NorthWest Will County portion of IL-11(Halverson plus the Northern LaSalle County portion of IL-11 as well as the IL-16(Manzullo-R) NorthWest DeKalb County Base.
The Remaining Parts of IL-16. plus the Northern parts of IL-17(Hare-D) (Whiteside,Rock Island,Mercer,Henderson,and Most of Warren County were combined. This placed Phil Hare-D and Don Manzullo-R in the same District -which favors Hare-D in the general election matchup.
Debbie Halverson-(IL-11) picked up Peoria,Putnam,Marshall and Stark portions of IL-18(Schrock-R) plus the the Knox and Henry portion of IL-17(Hare-D). The new IL-11 remains a safe Dem District.
The new IL-17th District- took in the remaining parts of the old IL-17 plus took in the Cass,Morgan,Montgomery,Christian,Sangamon,Macon,Moultrie,Piatt and portions of Champaign County- This district is as Springfield,DeCatur,Urbana-district- leans Democratic.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 29, 2009, 11:27:31 am
I created a Republican leaning district that can place (Schrock-R,Johnson-R and Schimkus-R) in the same District- new IL-18. It takes in the remaining parts of the old IL-18 plus it takes in the McLean,DeWitt,Champiagn,Douglas,and Coles portion of IL-15 and the Shelby,Northern Fayatte,Bond,and Madison, portion of IL-19 including Schimkus's home in Collinsville.
The other district includes the Eastern part of IL-15 and IL-19.
This plan forces Biggert-R to retire and makes Roskam the underdog in the General Election because most of the district from the new IL-13 is from the new IL-13. Roskam can run in the new IL-6 but he would have to face a Bean or Foster like Democratic opponent. and face voters in Elgin. +2D -2R
Manzullo-R also ends up losing because he and Hare-D are placed in the same District. We create a new District that includes all of Springfield,DeCatur,Urbana,and Southern portion of the old IL-17. +3D -3R

That leaves us Schrock,Johnson,and Schimkus. -one or both of these guys will be loser.


Title: 2012 IL US House Redistricting plan. using Daves Redistricting Software.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 29, 2009, 05:41:06 pm
1)IL-1(Rush-D)- remains the same as the old IL-1 plus expands South taking portions of the old IL-13(Biggert-R) Cook County base.
2)IL-2(Jackson-D)- remains the same as the old IL-2 plus plus expands Southwest taking portions of the old IL-11(Halverson-D) Will County base.
3)IL-3(Lipinksi-D)- remains the same as the old IL-3 plus picks up parts of the Southeastern portion of the old IL-4(Guitteriez-D) and picks up the Northeastern Portion of the old IL-13(Biggert-R).
4)IL-4(Guitteriez-D)- remains the same as the old IL-4
5)IL-5(Quigley-D)-remains the same as the old IL-5 plus it expands up North picking up portions of IL-9(Schakowsky-D) base.
6)IL-6(OPEN-D)- This is a newly created District taking the Northern Part of the old IL-6,Most of IL-8(Bean-D)-Cook County base, IL-14(Foster-D)-DuPage County base and the Eastern part of Kane County.
7)IL-7(OPEN-Davis-D)- remains the same as the old IL-7 plus expands up Northeast picking up portions of IL-5(Quigley-D).


Title: 2010 IL US House Redistricting Cont- using Daves Redistricting Software.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 29, 2009, 05:52:00 pm
8)IL-8(Bean-D)- Remains the same as the old IL-8 plus it moves South Taking in the SouthEastern McHenry County from IL-16(Manzullo-R) and Northern Kane County from IL-14(Foster-D). IL-8 remains a Competitive but Democratic leaning District- Bean-D is favored to win re-election.
9)IL-9(Schakowsky-D)- remains the same as the old IL-9 plus it moves West taking portions of IL-6(Roskam-R)-Cook and DuPage County base.
10)IL-10(Seals or Hamos-D)- remains the same as the old IL-10 plus it moves South taking portions of IL-9(Schakowsky-D).
11)IL-11(Halverson-D)- remains the same as the old IL-11 plus it picks up Putnam,Marshall,Stark,Peoria,Knox,and Northern Fulton County. IL-11 remains a Competitive but Democratic leaning District- (Aaron Schrock's home is in IL-11). Schrock will lose if he were to run in the new IL-11.
12)IL-12(Costello-D)-remains the same as the old IL-12 plus it picks up portions of IL-19(Schimkus-R) Madison County base.



Title: 2010 IL US House Redistricting Cont- using Daves Redistricting Software.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 29, 2009, 06:07:19 pm
13)IL-13(Biggert-R vs Roskam-R)- remains the same as the old IL-13 plus it picks up the Southern DuPage portion of IL-6(Roskam-R) including Roskam's home. Roskam-R will be an underdog in the primary and a competive GOP primary can help Democrats win this District in the general election.
14)IL-14(Foster-D)-remains the same as the old IL-14 plus it picks up Northern DeKalb and Western McHenry from IL-16(Manzullo-R) and Northern Bureau,LaSalle,and Will County from IL-11(Halverson-D)- Competive but Democratic leaning District- Foster-D should be favored to win re-election.
15)IL-15(Johnson-R vs Schimkus-R)- This District includes Livingston,Ford,Iroquis plus all of the Counties in the SouthEastern part of IL-15 and IL-19. plus it picks up Marion Jefferson,Clinton,Washington,and Madison County. This is a Republican leaning District but a Conservative Democrat like David Phelps or Glenn Poshard can win IL-15.
16)IL-16(Manzullo-R vs Hare-D)- Includes most of the old IL-16 except McHenry and DeKalb County plus Whiteside,Rock Island,Mercer,Northern Henderson,and Warren County portion of the old IL-17.


Title: Re: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on October 29, 2009, 06:16:55 pm
Phil Hare-D is favored to win the new IL-16th over Don Manzullo-R.
17)IL-17(OPEN-D)- includes the Southern portion of the old IL-17 plus it picks up all of Greene,Jersey,Morgan,Cass,Sangoman,Montgomery,Christian,Macon,Bond,and a tiny portion of Shelby County- This district leans Democratic.
18)IL-18(Schrock-R vs Johnson-R)- remains parts of the old IL-18 plus the DeWitt,McLean,Piatt,Champaign,Douglas,Coles,Cumberland and Moultrie portion of the old IL-15. plus it picks up Shelby,Fayette,and NorthWestern Marion County. It is a competive Republican leaning District.