Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => 2023 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Rowan on October 20, 2009, 03:43:38 PM



Title: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: Rowan on October 20, 2009, 03:43:38 PM
McDonnell 59%
Deeds 40%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=83ab7b50-6f0f-4257-9c76-c8d22c795ab6&c=77


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: Umengus on October 20, 2009, 03:49:04 PM

and the sample is Gop +1

Game over.


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 20, 2009, 03:50:50 PM
All of the Democratic candidates were joke candidates.


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: tmthforu94 on October 20, 2009, 03:54:29 PM
19 points isn't that much. Deeds can still win, and he will!!! ;)


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: Eraserhead on October 20, 2009, 03:55:14 PM
McDonnell is getting 31% of the black vote according to this poll.


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: Beet on October 20, 2009, 03:56:16 PM
McDonnell is winning 31% of blacks, he is also crushing Deeds among those making less than $50k a year... that's the Dems' base. I'm having a hard time believing it will be that big of a win based on this poll, even though I did predict it a few weeks ago.


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: Rowan on October 20, 2009, 03:56:16 PM
The blacks from the ghetto aren't even going to bother showing up, therefore making the blacks that do show up more conservative.


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: Dan the Roman on October 20, 2009, 05:03:54 PM
Lol at SurveyUSA in regards to the black vote. If true, this would be better than Michael Steele did by 9 points. Also LOL at Deeds in regards to the fact that if he were winning 85% of it he would still be losing by 15 points.


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 20, 2009, 06:22:20 PM
The blacks from the ghetto aren't even going to bother showing up, therefore making the blacks that do show up more conservative.

Of all the idiocy that has spewed forth from you, this ranks among the stupidest.


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: Alexander Hamilton on October 20, 2009, 07:00:45 PM
The blacks from the ghetto aren't even going to bother showing up, therefore making the blacks that do show up more conservative.

Of all the idiocy that has spewed forth from you, this ranks among the stupidest.

You clearly haven't seen many of his posts.


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: Ronnie on October 20, 2009, 07:30:17 PM
Yeah, I have trouble believing this poll.  If McDonnell wins, he'll probably win by 7-8 points tops.


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: Sam Spade on October 20, 2009, 07:31:53 PM
It ain't gonna be 19, but unless something changes soon, I'd have to say that double-digits is certainly a reasonable possibility.  Likely depends on turnout.


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: Holmes on October 20, 2009, 07:55:33 PM
This kind of reminds me of Jim Gilmore and an interview I remember watching, where he said he just knew he could surpass a 20 point deficit in the end.


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on October 20, 2009, 08:23:33 PM
This poll is such bullshit, I don't even know where to begin.


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: Stampever on October 20, 2009, 10:24:05 PM
I can see McDonnell pulling out 10%, but not 19%.


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: East Coast Republican on October 20, 2009, 11:08:18 PM
This poll is such bullshit, I don't even know where to begin.

Complain all you want 9th grader.  McDonnell has this wrapped up and is probably going to win by more than 10% BUT let's be conservative and say more than 8%.

Hmm that's a funny word.  Conservative.  Looks like Virginia just got a whole lot more Conservative


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: Sam Spade on October 20, 2009, 11:11:38 PM
I can see McDonnell pulling out 10%, but not 19%.

You shouldn't be modest.  McDonnell could pull out 15% given the right conditions and turnout.  Doesn't mean he will, of course.


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on October 20, 2009, 11:16:52 PM
When is Deeds going to make his move, Ben? Isn't the election in 2 weeks or so? ;) If he does win, this one may be bigger than Truman defeating Dewey.


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: Tender Branson on October 21, 2009, 12:27:30 AM
Hmmmm. SUSA is otherwise a really good pollster, but Deeds getting only 2/3 of Blacks is weird.

Let`s try another breakdown:

White (76%): 36-64
Black (17%): 85-15
Others (7%): 50-50

Deeds = 45%


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: Mechaman on October 21, 2009, 01:02:41 AM
When is Deeds going to make his move, Ben? Isn't the election in 2 weeks or so? ;) If he does win, this one may be bigger than Truman defeating Dewey.

True that.


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: Rowan on October 21, 2009, 05:57:25 AM
Isn't 17% black high?


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: Tender Branson on October 21, 2009, 07:53:10 AM

There are probably no Exit Polls, so we won`t know it anyway.


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: Badger on October 21, 2009, 08:53:45 AM
Hmmmm. SUSA is otherwise a really good pollster, but Deeds getting only 2/3 of Blacks is weird.

Let`s try another breakdown:

White (76%): 36-64
Black (17%): 85-15
Others (7%): 50-50

Deeds = 45%

For that matter, McDonnell getting even 15% of the black vote, and splitting the "other" vote (including NoVa's rapidly growing and overwhelmingly Democratic hispanic vote) seems generous. That said, Deeds is indeed in danger of possibly losing by over 10.


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: © tweed on October 21, 2009, 09:35:16 AM
*generic comment about subsample MoE*


Title: Re: VA: SUSA: Deeds is a joke candidate
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 27, 2009, 12:49:19 AM
Virginia is the real joke here.