Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2010 Elections => Topic started by: CARLHAYDEN on November 24, 2009, 05:56:45 am



Title: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on November 24, 2009, 05:56:45 am
While its a little early to give firm estimates on the change in the composition of the House of Representatives as a result of the 2010 election, it would be interesting to see if members of this forum are in any way realistic.

So go ahead and vote and discuss.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Franzl on November 24, 2009, 06:09:34 am
I'd guess about 25.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on November 24, 2009, 09:29:02 am
I figure maybe 10 to 17.  Could be a lot higher: Democrats have won a bunch of seats in 2006 and 2008 that they really just have no business holding based on the PVI.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: RIP Robert H Bork on November 24, 2009, 09:39:22 am
I'd guess about 25.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: nkpatel1279 on November 24, 2009, 10:16:37 am
Looking at the seats Democrats picked up in 2006 and won easily in 2008.
1)AZ-5(Mitchell-D)
2)AZ-8(Giffords-D)
3)CA-11(McNerney-D)
4)CO-7(Perlmutter-D)-
5)CT-2(Courtney-D)
6)CT-5(Murphy-D)
7)FL-22(Klein-D)
8)IN-2(Donnelly-D)
9)IN-8(Ellsworth-D)
10)IN-9(Hill-D)
11)IA-1(Braley-D)
12)IA-2(Loesback-D)
13)KY-3(Yarmuth-D)
14)MN-1(Walz-D)
15)NH-1(Shea Porter-D)
16)NY-19(Hall-D)
17)NC-11(Schuler-D)
18)OH-18(Ney-D)
19)PA-4(Altmire-D)
20)PA-8(Murphy-D)
21)PA-10(Carney-D)
22)TX-23(Rodriguez-D)
23)WI-8(Kagan-D)

Seats Democrats won in 2008 and will hold on in 2010.
1)AZ-1(Kirkpatrick-D)
2)CO-4(Markey-D)
3)CT-4(Himes-D)
4)FL-24(Kosmas-D)
5)IL-11(Halverson-D)
6)IL-14(Foster-D)
7)MI-9(Peters-D)
8)NV-3(Titus-D)
9)NM-1(Heinrich-D)
10)NY-13(McMahon-D)
11)NY-25(Maffei-D)
12)NC-8(Kissell-D)
13)OH-16(Boccieri-D)
14)PA-3(Dahlkemper-D)
15)VA-11(Connolly-D)

The seats Democrats are in danger of losing is.
1)AL-2(Bright-D)
2)AL-5(Griffith-D)
3)FL-8(Grayson-D)
4)ID-1(Minnick-D)
5)IA-3(Boswell-D)-
6)KS-3(OPEN-Moore-D)
7)LA-3(OPEN-Melancon-D)
8)MD-1(Kravotil-D)
9)MI-7(Schauer-D)
10)MS-1(Childers-D)
11)NH-2(OPEN-Hodes-D)
12)NJ-3(Adler-D)
13)NM-2(Teague-D)
14)NY-20(Murphy-D)
15)NY-23(Owens-D)
16)NY-24(Arcuri-D)
17)NY-29(Massa-D)
18)OH-1(Driehaus-D)
19)OH-15(Kilroy-D)
20)PA-11(Kanjorski-D)-rematch with Barletta-R.
21)PA-7(OPEN-Sestak-D)
22)VA-2(Nye-D)
23)VA-5(Perriello-D)

Democrats will pick up DE-AL,IL-10,LA-2,and PA-6.

Cuomo-Schumer-Gillibrand coattails will help Murphy,Owens,Arcuri,and Massa.
Lynch-Hodes will help the DEM nominee in NH-2.
Specter/Sestak and Hoefell-as DEM nominee for Governor will help DEMs win PA-6 and PA-7 and PA-11.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: auburntiger on November 24, 2009, 10:22:06 am
No idea. 20 maybe?? either way, it will be a gain for Republicans across the board.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on November 24, 2009, 11:38:43 am
I say 18-22 seats.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Eraserhead on November 24, 2009, 02:48:32 pm
Around 20, maybe a bit less. Of course, guesstimating right now is quite silly.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Apollo on November 24, 2009, 06:42:34 pm
i'm thinking around the 18-22 range as well, although a number like 25 wouldn't surprise me much


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Psychic Octopus on November 24, 2009, 06:43:42 pm
23-44, but definately on the lower end of that range.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on November 24, 2009, 06:43:53 pm
Around 20, maybe a bit less. Of course, guesstimating right now is quite silly.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 24, 2009, 06:55:05 pm
257 -- Cuomo/Schumer/Gillibrand coattails will save Jose Serrano.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 25, 2009, 09:56:46 pm
My guess is that Democrats lose everything that they gained in 2008.  That would mean around 20-25 seats. 


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: bgwah on November 27, 2009, 06:24:16 pm
30-35


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 27, 2009, 08:19:33 pm
I'm thinking 10-15.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Sbane on November 27, 2009, 08:31:02 pm
As of right now 20-25 seats and this is probably the best case scenario for them. If they still fail to overcome Republican obstructionism and don't implement their agenda by 2010, expect closer to 40-50 seats to fall.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Jbrase on November 27, 2009, 09:31:55 pm
23-44, but definately on the lower end of that range.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Vepres on November 27, 2009, 09:51:45 pm
30-35 if they pass some sort of healthcare, or a complete bloodbath if they fail to pass reform.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 28, 2009, 12:04:57 am
5 to 10 if the pass Health Care

15 to 30 if they don't

Unemployement stays above 10% through November 25- 40

There is a double dip recession/Depression 50-100


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 28, 2009, 01:55:44 am
5 to 10 if the pass Health Care

15 to 30 if they don't

Unemployement stays above 10% through November 25- 40

There is a double dip recession/Depression 50-100

100 seats?  Even in the horrible Democratic years between 1994 and 2006, Democrats never fell below 203 seats. 


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 28, 2009, 02:20:30 am
Lose about 20 seats, gain about 5, for a net of around 15.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on November 28, 2009, 02:22:37 am
5 to 10 if the pass Health Care

15 to 30 if they don't

Unemployement stays above 10% through November 25- 40

There is a double dip recession/Depression 50-100

100 seats?  Even in the horrible Democratic years between 1994 and 2006, Democrats never fell below 203 seats.  

While obviously they don't have most of the blame now, the last time that the Democratic party was blamed for a depression during a midterm election was 1894. Democrats had a truly epic loss, going  from 61% to 26% in that election.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1894


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Dan the Roman on November 28, 2009, 01:25:58 pm
5 to 10 if the pass Health Care

15 to 30 if they don't

Unemployement stays above 10% through November 25- 40

There is a double dip recession/Depression 50-100

100 seats?  Even in the horrible Democratic years between 1994 and 2006, Democrats never fell below 203 seats.  

While obviously they don't have most of the blame now, the last time that the Democratic party was blamed for a depression during a midterm election was 1894. Democrats had a truly epic loss, going  from 61% to 26% in that election.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1894


That depression was far worse, and furthermore, the GOP was an acceptable alternative, even in parts of the South at that point(and it was this GOP resurgence among white voters in the south which led to Jim Crow).  The GOP does not even exist in places like Massachusetts and Rhode Island, or in urban seats. The GOP frankly is unlikely to have anywhere near enough serious candidates to win 276 seats. Even if unemployment was at 15%.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: DownWithTheLeft on November 28, 2009, 05:21:59 pm
30-40


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Rowan on November 28, 2009, 09:35:56 pm
More than you expect.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: The love that set me free on November 29, 2009, 01:03:26 pm
I'll say about 10-15. The GOP is still anathema in many parts of the country, any gains will have to come almost exclusively from the south.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on November 29, 2009, 01:10:58 pm
I'd say 20-25.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Vepres on November 29, 2009, 02:18:43 pm
I'll say about 10-15. The GOP is still anathema in many parts of the country, any gains will have to come almost exclusively from the south.

Actually, they have real room for growth in the industrial Midwest and the Mountain West. The industrial Midwest is in decline, and they have mostly Democrats in office at the moment. In the Mountain West, there is lots of anger about growing federal power and government spending. The leadership of the GOP understands they need to run moderates, the base just has to start listening. Will they? I don't know.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 29, 2009, 02:54:18 pm
Twenty million billion.

---

It's too early to say, obviously. The only things that are clear is that the pattern of Democratic gains which started (more or less) wi' the Chandler by-election is going to end, and the swing will be higher than average in most of the South. We'll have a better idea by the summer (that's the point at which it became clear in 2006, for those who had eyes to see, that the House was going to fall). Until then, all we're doing is throwing random numbers around, and often those that look pleasing to us. Confirmation bias is the devil of election prediction, and we are all vulnerable to it.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Psychic Octopus on November 29, 2009, 03:03:17 pm
I'd say 20-25.

That is around where I am predicting, like 22-27 though.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: dwkulcsar on November 29, 2009, 03:24:06 pm
I'd say 10-17, and Alan Grayson (FL-8) is not going to be one of them. Grayson's detractors are in the upper part of his district, who did not vote for him anyways. He will win the Orlando and Orange County part of his district. Grayson has alot of cash and will not have a problem spending it to keep himself in office.

The GOP has put forth some very weak possible contenders, the only one that may be worth it is State Rep. Kurt Kelly, but he is from Ocala, and may not sell as well as Grayson can where the population is which is Orlando-Lake County.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Sbane on November 29, 2009, 03:48:38 pm
I'll say about 10-15. The GOP is still anathema in many parts of the country, any gains will have to come almost exclusively from the south.

Actually, they have real room for growth in the industrial Midwest and the Mountain West. The industrial Midwest is in decline, and they have mostly Democrats in office at the moment. In the Mountain West, there is lots of anger about growing federal power and government spending. The leadership of the GOP understands they need to run moderates, the base just has to start listening. Will they? I don't know.

How many seats is the Mountain west really? They will probably lose that Idaho seat and that New Mexico seat as well as CO-4. But for it to be a real wave election and for the Republicans to take over congress they would need to win AZ-5, NV-3, CA-11. At this moment I don't see them winning either of them. But if health care doesn't pass, or the economy worsens, all bets are off. The democrats may have lost a lot of support in exurban/rural west but the good news for them is that not a lot of people live there.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Wiz in Wis on November 30, 2009, 02:21:21 pm
At this point, not enough to win either chamber, or even really come close in the House. A good number of the 2006/2008 pickups were seats that leaned D, like IA-1, the CT seats, the PA seats, The NY seats, NOVA, Denver Burbs, NM-1, FL22. I don't think they lose that many. Given that 2010 will force a number of states to redistrict that are pretty much gerrymandered to give the GOP a leg up, I doubt that regaining control of the House is in the cards barring some collapse the likes of which have not been postulated (15% + unemployment, huge clusterflock in Afghnistan, Giant Democratic child mollesting scandal and coverup).


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Alexander Hamilton on December 04, 2009, 02:11:00 am
they will gain about 23


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: nkpatel1279 on December 04, 2009, 10:27:46 am
Democrats will pick up DE-AL,IL-10,LA-2 and PA-6.
Democrats will have a tough time holding onto.
1)AL-2
2)AL-5
3)FL-8
4)ID-1
5)LA-3
6)MD-1
7)MI-7
8)NJ-3
9)NM-2
10)OH-1
11)OH-15
12)VA-2
13)VA-5

Democrats loose about 10 seats.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on December 08, 2009, 04:49:21 pm
Wave election net lose about 26 or 33 seats, but for now 10-17


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: timmer123 on December 12, 2009, 11:57:21 pm
Only time will tell on this.  We talk about 1994 a lot, but remember that nobody saw the 52 seat loss the Dems incurred coming.  They were completely blindsided.

It's gonna depend on the economic situation of the country, and other variables.  15 seat minimum pick up.. but wouldn't be surprised to see upwards of 30.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Mr.Phips on December 13, 2009, 12:25:15 am
Only time will tell on this.  We talk about 1994 a lot, but remember that nobody saw the 52 seat loss the Dems incurred coming.  They were completely blindsided.

It's gonna depend on the economic situation of the country, and other variables.  15 seat minimum pick up.. but wouldn't be surprised to see upwards of 30.

The difference this time is that Democrats expect to get their asses kicked next year. 


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on December 14, 2009, 12:15:12 pm
I think the fewest number of seats the Dems will have is 225.  I don't see the republicans gaining more than 210.  The ousted Dems will be Dems who don't vote for Obama's budget anyway.  They are there for the numbers.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Beet on December 14, 2009, 02:46:53 pm
If the election were held today, they would lose 65 to 70 seats. The GOP would win the highest percentage of the Congressional vote since the 1920s.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Rowan on December 14, 2009, 03:09:46 pm
Democrats will pick up DE-AL,IL-10,LA-2 and PA-6.
Democrats will have a tough time holding onto.
1)AL-2
2)AL-5
3)FL-8
4)ID-1
5)LA-3
6)MD-1
7)MI-7
8)NJ-3
9)NM-2
10)OH-1
11)OH-15
12)VA-2
13)VA-5

Democrats loose about 10 seats.

Only 10?? You're insane.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on December 14, 2009, 08:10:34 pm
I'm thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 seats, give or take 5.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: J. J. on December 25, 2009, 09:30:27 pm
Could be a lot higher: Democrats have won a bunch of seats in 2006 and 2008 that they really just have no business holding based on the PVI.

I think that this is really the key.

There are several factors. 

First, the only time, post war that the president's party gained seats in an off year election was when the president had high poll numbers and it was the first year after a redistricting (2002).  The most minor losses occurred when the president had higher numbers.  My guess would be that even if Obama were at 50% to 55%, you'd see a 10-15 seat loss. 

Second, there are a number of naturally GOP seats, that might include another 5-15 seats.

Two other factor will be if Obama is below 50% and if there is a strong anti-incumbency feeling by the election. 

Naturally, I'd say 25-35 seats could be expected, though not significant.  I'd say anything above 35, and you are entering re-alignment range.  The GOP doing better than 1994 is not out of the question.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Bo on December 25, 2009, 09:45:27 pm
I'd say 18 to 22. They will probably pick up around 5 and lose around 25, thus for a net loss of about 20.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Franzl on December 26, 2009, 02:06:18 pm
Naturally, I'd say 25-35 seats could be expected, though not significant.  I'd say anything above 35, and you are entering re-alignment range.  The GOP doing better than 1994 is not out of the question.

Just as the Bradley Effect costing Obama the election was not out of the question.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Vepres on December 26, 2009, 02:10:53 pm
Naturally, I'd say 25-35 seats could be expected, though not significant.  I'd say anything above 35, and you are entering re-alignment range.  The GOP doing better than 1994 is not out of the question.

Just as the Bradley Effect costing Obama the election was not out of the question.

Well it wasn't. If you're attempting sarcasm, I'm failing to detect it :P

My general feeling is we're in a period (probably since 2006) where the controlling party, whichever one it is, will suffer huge losses after huge but short-lived gains in power.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Franzl on December 26, 2009, 02:22:43 pm
Naturally, I'd say 25-35 seats could be expected, though not significant.  I'd say anything above 35, and you are entering re-alignment range.  The GOP doing better than 1994 is not out of the question.

Just as the Bradley Effect costing Obama the election was not out of the question.

Well it wasn't. If you're attempting sarcasm, I'm failing to detect it :P

My general feeling is we're in a period (probably since 2006) where the controlling party, whichever one it is, will suffer huge losses after huge but short-lived gains in power.

I'm just mocking J.J.'s analysis, that's it.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Vepres on December 26, 2009, 03:55:44 pm
Naturally, I'd say 25-35 seats could be expected, though not significant.  I'd say anything above 35, and you are entering re-alignment range.  The GOP doing better than 1994 is not out of the question.

Just as the Bradley Effect costing Obama the election was not out of the question.

Well it wasn't. If you're attempting sarcasm, I'm failing to detect it :P

My general feeling is we're in a period (probably since 2006) where the controlling party, whichever one it is, will suffer huge losses after huge but short-lived gains in power.

I'm just mocking J.J.'s analysis, that's it.


Ah, ok.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Mr.Phips on December 27, 2009, 02:59:27 am
Naturally, I'd say 25-35 seats could be expected, though not significant.  I'd say anything above 35, and you are entering re-alignment range.  The GOP doing better than 1994 is not out of the question.

Just as the Bradley Effect costing Obama the election was not out of the question.

Well it wasn't. If you're attempting sarcasm, I'm failing to detect it :P

My general feeling is we're in a period (probably since 2006) where the controlling party, whichever one it is, will suffer huge losses after huge but short-lived gains in power.

So you would expect that Republicans lose big again in 2012?  Especially considering that Democrats likely wont work with Republicans the way they did on a good number of issues in 1995 and 1996, which made Republicans look somewhat competent.  This time, you will likely see Democrats blocking almost every Republican initiative. 


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Sewer on December 27, 2009, 03:45:50 am
This time, you will likely see Democrats blocking almost every Republican initiative. 

lol


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: TeePee4Prez on December 27, 2009, 01:00:40 pm
Naturally, I'd say 25-35 seats could be expected, though not significant.  I'd say anything above 35, and you are entering re-alignment range.  The GOP doing better than 1994 is not out of the question.

Just as the Bradley Effect costing Obama the election was not out of the question.

Well it wasn't. If you're attempting sarcasm, I'm failing to detect it :P

My general feeling is we're in a period (probably since 2006) where the controlling party, whichever one it is, will suffer huge losses after huge but short-lived gains in power.

I'm just mocking J.J.'s analysis, that's it.


Ah, ok.

Hey I'll also bring up the fact he thinks every House seat in PA from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia except Kanjorski will flip to the GOP.  I think I have my new Pennsylvania flame-war buddy now that Phil's gone.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Bo on December 27, 2009, 03:24:32 pm
Naturally, I'd say 25-35 seats could be expected, though not significant.  I'd say anything above 35, and you are entering re-alignment range.  The GOP doing better than 1994 is not out of the question.

Why did Phil leave this forum?
Just as the Bradley Effect costing Obama the election was not out of the question.

Well it wasn't. If you're attempting sarcasm, I'm failing to detect it :P

My general feeling is we're in a period (probably since 2006) where the controlling party, whichever one it is, will suffer huge losses after huge but short-lived gains in power.

I'm just mocking J.J.'s analysis, that's it.


Ah, ok.

Hey I'll also bring up the fact he thinks every House seat in PA from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia except Kanjorski will flip to the GOP.  I think I have my new Pennsylvania flame-war buddy now that Phil's gone.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on December 28, 2009, 01:56:35 am
I've been running a series of numbers recently, and the most likely scenario at this time is for a net loss (relative to the results of the 2008 elections) of 24 seats.

A lot can change between now and November, 2010 but it is likely that the Democrats will sustain a net loss of at least 17 seats but probably not more than 44.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: redcommander on December 28, 2009, 03:37:50 pm
I'm thinking more than 50, possibly over 60 if things continue to go downhill.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on December 28, 2009, 03:58:44 pm
If we can keep our incumbants in the Senate, I think that will neutralize the down the ballot races. 


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Beet on January 21, 2010, 09:49:11 pm
If the election were held today, they would lose 65 to 70 seats. The GOP would win the highest percentage of the Congressional vote since the 1920s.

What's with this highly alarmist talk? Did you see the Gallup poll in the early thread?

Bump. Do more people believe this now?


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Psychic Octopus on January 21, 2010, 09:50:07 pm
Looking to be around 28-35, now.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Beet on January 21, 2010, 10:00:09 pm
I admit 65-70 might be a bit high. But when I made that prediction even I didn't see MA-SEN coming!

Just figure out this: how many blue dog / McCain districts are represented by Democrats (answer: 49)? Because you can pretty much kiss 90% of them goodbye, as of today. I also expect a net loss in districts that voted for Obama.

The Democrats' only hope in containing losses to the currently expected 28-35 lies in things getting better by November.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: The love that set me free on January 23, 2010, 08:54:33 pm
If I had more time, I'm sure I could come up with more than 5 safe Democrats in McCain seats. Actually just two off the bat are the two in Arkansas who aren't Snyder (one who doesn't even have an opponent yet.)


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on January 23, 2010, 09:36:07 pm
I'd say 20-25.

25-30 now.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on January 24, 2010, 06:58:21 am
I'd say 20-25.

25-30 now.

I think you are probably correct.

Also, its the ideal number for Republicans.

They won't be a majority, so they won't be saddled with responsibility.

Also, they can hope to keep Nancy 'the nutcase' Pelosi up front and center.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on January 25, 2010, 06:53:16 am
I predict the dems will have a 6 seat majority in the House come Jan 2011.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on January 25, 2010, 07:15:29 am
I predict the dems will have a 6 seat majority in the House come Jan 2011.

Sounds good.



Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: J. J. on February 02, 2010, 11:25:09 pm
Naturally, I'd say 25-35 seats could be expected, though not significant.  I'd say anything above 35, and you are entering re-alignment range.  The GOP doing better than 1994 is not out of the question.

Just as the Bradley Effect costing Obama the election was not out of the question.

Well it wasn't. If you're attempting sarcasm, I'm failing to detect it :P

My general feeling is we're in a period (probably since 2006) where the controlling party, whichever one it is, will suffer huge losses after huge but short-lived gains in power.

I'm just mocking J.J.'s analysis, that's it.


Ah, ok.

Amazing how my prediction is now the middle of the top answer bracket.  ;)


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Iosif on March 26, 2010, 05:14:50 am
8. They'll lose a net of 8 seats.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Bo on August 11, 2010, 05:00:45 pm
I'd say 18 to 22. They will probably pick up around 5 and lose around 25, thus for a net loss of about 20.

I'd say 23-44 now.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Thomas D on August 11, 2010, 05:02:16 pm
29


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: You kip if you want to... on August 11, 2010, 05:08:51 pm
About 60.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Bo on August 11, 2010, 05:15:41 pm
About 60.

What is your reasoning for this? That's even more than they lost in 1994, after they failed to pass healthcare reform.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Mr.Phips on August 11, 2010, 05:38:28 pm
32 seats.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on August 11, 2010, 05:42:03 pm
24 seats in the House and 4 senate seats.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: redcommander on August 11, 2010, 05:45:33 pm
35 seats right now.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Beet on August 11, 2010, 05:45:59 pm
Um. Intrade has it priced at around 60% that Democrats will lose the house. That puts the loss at more than 38 seats. How much more than 38 seats depends on what you think the shape of the average probability function across the traders on Intrade assign to their certainty of estimation.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Vepres on August 11, 2010, 08:45:03 pm
35 - 55

Anybody who says they may only lose 20-ish seats is in denial :P


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on August 11, 2010, 08:57:33 pm
Well, didn't Cook predict precisely a 25 seat loss? Down from his earlier prediction of 35 seats.  As far as Intrade, they are basing it on speculation, I think time will tell whether the Dems can get back in it and the election is 3 months off anyways, alot can change.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Vepres on August 11, 2010, 09:15:20 pm
Well, didn't Cook predict precisely a 25 seat loss? Down from his earlier prediction of 35 seats.  As far as Intrade, they are basing it on speculation, I think time will tell whether the Dems can get back in it and the election is 3 months off anyways, alot can change.

Cook believes Republicans have a very good chance of retaking the House.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: The love that set me free on August 11, 2010, 09:26:35 pm
InTrade isn't exactly always dead on unless you believe Ron Paul had around a 7% chance of being the GOP nominee in 2008 at any point, or that Al Gore had around a 5% chance after the Iowa caucuses.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: auburntiger on August 18, 2010, 05:07:05 pm
I say 30 now. Ill say this, and I may be proven wrong, but if the Democrats retain Congress, President Obama will lose in 2012 and/or one chamber goes Republican.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Bo on August 18, 2010, 05:39:55 pm
Um. Intrade has it priced at around 60% that Democrats will lose the house. That puts the loss at more than 38 seats. How much more than 38 seats depends on what you think the shape of the average probability function across the traders on Intrade assign to their certainty of estimation.

Some wealthy Republicans might be putting a lot of money into odds that the GOP will win the House, though, thus making this odds higher on Intrade than they would have been otherwise.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Eraserhead on August 18, 2010, 06:02:40 pm
Voted 18-22 on this back in the day. Obviously, I'd go with 23-44 now (towards the upper end of that).


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on August 20, 2010, 11:18:00 am
It will be between 226 and 232 Dems and 203 and 210 GOP members


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Mr.Phips on September 07, 2010, 11:04:38 pm
I say 30 now. Ill say this, and I may be proven wrong, but if the Democrats retain Congress, President Obama will lose in 2012 and/or one chamber goes Republican.

Ill take that in a heartbeat.  As long as Obama is out in 2012. 


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on September 08, 2010, 01:03:13 pm
I'll go 40-45 seats.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on September 11, 2010, 10:44:49 am
Nay, 8 seat majority for the Dems in the House, I predict they will barely hold on.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: The Vorlon on October 08, 2010, 07:32:19 pm
The correct answer...

Way more than you even think is possible.

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
    The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity
.


Yeats



Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Sam Spade on October 08, 2010, 08:21:08 pm
Goes to show you that the future is hard to predict.


Title: Re: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on October 14, 2010, 08:54:12 am
Now, the Dems are gonna lose the House of Rep, it all about how much and its probably gonna be about 50-55 seats.