Title: AR: Research 2000: Lincoln ahead Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on December 03, 2009, 06:01:51 PM New Poll: Arkansas Senator by Research 2000 on 2009-12-2 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2010/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5302009122037)
Summary: D: 42%, R: 41%, I: 0%, U: 17% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/12/2/AR/420) Title: Re: AR: Research 2000: Lincoln ahead Post by: Rowan on December 03, 2009, 06:20:25 PM If R2K is going to be hacks, they shouldn't show their sample:
1. Party ID: In 2008, the exit polls showed 36% Democrats and 32% Republicans, yet this poll wants us to believe that in 2010 the electorate will be 39% Democrats and 31% Republicans. Does that make sense to anyone? 2. Race: In 2008, 12% of the electorate was African-American even with Obama on the ticket, yet this poll shows that the 2010 electorate will be 13% African-American. 3. Age: In 2008, 19% of the electorate was over age 65, yet this poll wants us to believe that only 16% of the electorate will be over 60 years old. This is just an awful awful turnout model for a midterm electorate. Title: Re: AR: Research 2000: Lincoln ahead Post by: Rowan on December 03, 2009, 06:20:53 PM Oh and I love how you entered this one and not the Rasmussen one.
Title: Re: AR: Research 2000: Lincoln ahead Post by: jokerman on December 03, 2009, 06:31:12 PM 1. Party ID: In 2008, the exit polls showed 36% Democrats and 32% Republicans, yet this poll wants us to believe that in 2010 the electorate will be 39% Democrats and 31% Republicans. Does that make sense to anyone? Title: Re: AR: Research 2000: Lincoln ahead Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 03, 2009, 06:52:00 PM More interestingly, she's only up 42-26 in a theoretical primary battle with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.
Title: Re: AR: Research 2000: Lincoln ahead Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on December 03, 2009, 06:53:33 PM 1. Party ID: In 2008, the exit polls showed 36% Democrats and 32% Republicans, yet this poll wants us to believe that in 2010 the electorate will be 39% Democrats and 31% Republicans. Does that make sense to anyone? As Preston said, turnout for 2010 will be more Democratic, with the statewide races on the ballot. There will be more Democrats, and fewer partisan Republicans, than there were in 2008. |