Talk Elections

2008 thread here, to see how I did (decently). (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=79481.0)

This was originally posted on the 2010 Elections board, but that was a mistake, so I'm reposting it here. The Republican list is noticeably shorter; I'd be surprised if the Democrats manage to make ten Republican districts competitive in the end.

Asterisk denotes open seat.

Seats Held By Democrats

Likely Republican Takeover (12 seats)

AR-02* (Vic Snyder)
CO-04 (Betsy Markey)
IN-08* (Brad Ellsworth)
KS-03* (Dennis Moore)
LA-03* (Charlie Melancon)
OH-01 (Steve Driehaus)
OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy)
MD-01 (Frank Kratovil)
NY-29* (Eric Massa)
TN-06* (Bart Gordon)
TX-17 (Chet Edwards)
VA-05 (Tom Perriello)

Lean Republican Takeover (16 seats)

AR-01* (Marion Berry)
AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell)
FL-02 (Allen Boyd)
FL-08 (Alan Grayson)
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas)
GA-08 (Jim Marshall)
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson)
MI-01* (Bart Stupak)
MS-01 (Travis Childers)
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy)
PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper)
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)
SC-05 (John Spratt)
TN-08* (John Tanner)
VA-02 (Glenn Nye)
WI-07* (Dave Obey)

Republican-Leaning Tossup (15 seats)

AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick)
IL-17 (Phil Hare)
IN-09 (Baron Hill)
NV-03 (Dina Titus)
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter)
NH-02* (Paul Hodes)
NJ-03 (John Adler)
NM-02 (Harry Teague)
OH-16 (John Boccieri)
OR-05 (Kurt Schrader)
PA-07* (Joe Sestak)
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy)
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin)
WA-03* (Brian Baird)
WI-08 (Steve Kagen)

Pure Tossup (21 seats)

AL-02 (Bobby Bright)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
CA-20 (Jim Costa)
CO-03 (John Salazar)
FL-22 (Ron Klein)
IL-14 (Bill Foster)
MI-07 (Mark Schauer)
MO-04 (Ike Skelton)
NM-01 (Martin Heinrich)
NY-19 (John Hall)
NY-20 (Scott Murphy)
NY-23 (Bill Owens)
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri)
NC-02 (Bob Etherige)
NC-08 (Larry Kissell)
OH-18 (Zack Space)
PA-10 (Chris Carney)
TN-04 (Lincoln Davis)
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez)
VA-09 (Rick Boucher)

Democratic-Leaning Tossup (9 seats)

AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords)
GA-02 (Sanford Bishop)
ID-01 (Walt Minnick)
MA-10* (Bill Delahunt)
MI-09 (Gary Peters)
MS-04 (Gene Taylor)
NY-01 (Tim Bishop)
VA-11 (Gerry Connolly)
WV-01* (Alan Mollohan)

Lean Democratic (14 seats)

CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez)
CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter)
CT-04 (Jim Himes)
CT-05 (Chris Murphy)
IN-02 (Joe Donnelly)
KY-06 (Ben Chandler)
MN-01 (Tim Walz)
MN-08 (Jim Oberstar)
NJ-12 (Rush Holt)
NC-07 (Mike McIntyre)
NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
OH-06 (Charlie Wilson)
PA-12 (Mark Critz)
WA-02 (Rick Larsen)

Likely Democratic (14 seats)

AZ-07 (Raul Grijalva)
CA-18 (Dennis Cardoza)
IA-01 (Bruce Braley)
IA-02 (Dave Loebsack)
KY-03 (John Yarmuth)
ME-01 (Chellie Pingree)
MO-03 (Russ Carnahan)
NY-13 (Michael McMahon)
NY-22 (Maurice Hinchey)
OH-13 (Betty Sutton)
OR-01 (David Wu)
PA-04 (Jason Altmire)
WI-03 (Ron Kind)
WV-03 (Nick Rahall)

---

Seats Held By Republicans

Lean Democratic Takeover (2 seats)

DE-AL* (Mike Castle)
LA-02 (Joseph Cao)

Democratic-Leaning Tossup (1 seat)

IL-10* (Mark Kirk)

Pure Tossup (2 seats)

FL-25* (Mario Diaz-Balart)
HI-01 (Charles Djou)

Lean Republican (3 seats)

AZ-03* (John Shadegg)
CA-03 (Dan Lungren)
WA-08 (Dave Reichert)

Likely Republican (5 seats)

FL-12* (Adam Putnam)
KS-04* (Todd Tiahrt)
MI-03* (Vern Ehlers)
PA-06 (Jim Gerlach)
PA-15 (Charlie Dent)

Excellent stuff, really.  I disagree on some things, but that's expected.

Really good list. I personally still think Republicans will win back the house in November.

Mostly agree, although that's not anywhere near 1994. Even if the GOP manages to win everything pure tossup and beyond, that's only +19 and not even halfway to winning the House. Also don't understand how Cao can only be "Lean Democratic" unless it's on the principle of not having any seats of the other party be anything greater than Lean.

This far out, I err on the side of caution when it comes to incumbents losing re-election; unless it's obvious there's no chance of the incumbent winning, I tend to leave it as a tossup. Once there's more quantitative data out there -- fundraising and polling are my two main determinants -- I'm sure there will be a lot more moving up the list. I even hesitate putting Bright and Minnick as Lean Takeover this early, just because it doesn't seem like they have very good opponents. Cao will probably become Likely Takeover once the Democratic field sizes up, which tends to be late in the game in Louisiana, thanks to their ridiculously-late filing deadlines.

Yes, and you think wrong.

Democratic-Held Seats

ALL FLIPS EXCEPT KS-03

Lean Republican Takeover (6 seats)
AL-02 (Bobby Bright)
ID-01 (Walt Minnick)
KS-03* (Dennis Moore) Stays Dem.
LA-03* (Charlie Melancon)
TN-06* (Bart Gordon)
TN-08* (John Tanner)

Pure Tossup (15 seats)

AR-02 (Vic Snyder)- FLIPS
CO-04 (Betsy Markey)- FLIPS
MD-01 (Frank Kratovil)- FLIPS
MS-01 (Travis Childers)- FLIPS
NH-02* (Paul Hodes)- STAYS
NM-02 (Harry Teague)- STAYS
NY-29 (Eric Massa)- FLIPS
NC-08 (Larry Kissell)- STAYS
OH-01 (Steve Driehaus)- STAYS
OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy)- STAYS
PA-07* (Joe Sestak)- STAYS
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)- FLIPS
VA-02 (Glenn Nye)- STAYS
VA-05 (Tom Perriello)- FLIPS
WA-03* (Brian Baird)- STAYS

Lean Democratic (16 seats)

FL-08 (Alan Grayson)- STAYS
FL-22 (Ron Klein)- STAYS
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas)- STAYS. LOOK FOR UPSET.
IL-14 (Bill Foster)- STAYS
IN-09 (Baron Hill)- FLIPS
NV-03 (Dina Titus)- STAYS
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter)- STAYS
NJ-03 (John Adler)- STAYS
NY-01 (Tim Bishop)- FLIPS
NY-19 (John Hall)- STAYS
NY-23 (Bill Owens)- FLIPS
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri)- FLIPS
PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper)- STAYS
SC-05 (John Spratt)- STAYS
TN-04 (Lincoln Davis)- STAYS
TX-17 (Chet Edwards)- STAYS

Likely Democratic (12 seats)

ALL STAYS.

AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson)
IA-03 (Leonard Boswell)
MI-07 (Mark Schauer)
MO-04 (Ike Skelton)
NY-20 (Scott Murphy)
OH-16 (John Boccieri)
OH-18 (Zack Space)
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin)
VA-11 (Gerry Connolly)
WI-08 (Steve Kagen)

Democratic Watch List (21 seats)

ALL STAYS.

AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick)
CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez)
CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter)
GA-02 (Sanford Bishop)
GA-08 (Jim Marshall)
GA-12 (John Barrow)
HI-01* (Neil Abercrombie)
MI-09 (Gary Peters)
MO-03 (Russ Carnahan)
NM-01 (Martin Heinrich)
NY-13 (Michael McMahon)
OR-05 (Kurt Schrader)
PA-04 (Jason Altmire)
PA-10 (Chris Carney)
PA-12 (Jack Murtha)
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez)
UT-02 (Jim Matheson)
VA-09 (Rick Boucher)
WI-03 (Ron Kind)
WI-07 (Dave Obey)
WV-01 (Alan Mollohan)

---

Republican-Held Seats

Lean Democratic Takeover (2 seats)

WILL FLIP.  AGREED.

DE-AL* (Mike Castle)
LA-02 (Joseph Cao)

Pure Tossup (2 seats)
IL-10* (Mark Kirk)- FLIPS
PA-06* (Jim Gerlach)- FLIPS

Lean Republican (4 seats)
CA-03 (Dan Lungren)- STAYS
NE-02 (Lee Terry)- STAYS
PA-15 (Charlie Dent)- STAYS
WA-08 (Dave Reichert)- STAYS

Likely Republican (3 seats)

STAYS.

FL-10 (Bill Young). LOOK FOR UPSET.
KS-04* (Todd Tiahrt)
MN-06 (Michele Bachmann). WISHED IT WAS AN UPSET.

Republican Watch List (12 seats)

ALL STAYS.

AL-03 (Mike Rogers)
CA-44 (Ken Calvert)
CA-45 (Mary Bono Mack)
FL-12* (Adam Putnam)
FL-16 (Tom Rooney)
IL-13 (Judy Biggert)
MI-11 (Thad McCotter)
MN-03 (Erik Paulsen)
MO-08 (Jo Ann Emerson)
OH-02 (Jean Schmidt)
OH-12 (Pat Tiberi)- DEMS CAN GET ACT TOGETHER AND MAKE NOISE.
VA-01 (Rob Wittman)

It won't be easy for Dems to hold KS-03 when they still don't have a candidate. I think they'd need a strong Johnson County candidate to hold it, and even that's not assured, since they're facing a landslide at the top of the ticket.

When did Dennis Moore retire? I remember he was thought to be retiring around January but then changed his mind?

There definately will be a landslide atop the ticket with Brownback hitting 65% and hopefully Moran(but even Tiarht) getting close to 60% if not exceeding it.

Obama almost certainly carried KS-03 if I'm reading it right. It appears Wynadotte county had a slightly larger margin for Obama than Johnson did for McCain, and though we don't know how the portion of Douglas in it voted exactly, it obviously was for Obama.

Right before Thanksgiving:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1109/Dennis_Moore_retiring.html

So far there have been several Republicans getting in (most notably State Rep. Kevin Yoder and 2008 nominee Nick Jordan) but not a single Democrat has come forward. The only ones talking about it are a current and former mayor of Kansas City.

Things are so bad for the Democrats in Kansas that this nutbag is currently their only candidate for Governor:

http://herbertwest3rd.blogspot.com/

Yeah, Obama won it 51-48, but Wyandotte pretty much votes for any Democrat on the ballot. All the Republican has to do to win is run up a decent margin in Johnson County -- Moore's been able to hold the district because he's from Johnson County and has always done well there.

All said, I'm at GOP +11 seats for now.

Why the hell did Moore retire anyway?  He could have at least waited until 2012 when Democrats would have likely had a better chance at holding the seat. 

One district that I am interested in is OH-01.  The district voted heavily for Obama and came within 3,000 votes of going for John Kerry and should be reasonably safe for a moderate Democrat like Driehaus.  If he can pile up a 10,000 vote lead in the Democratic leaning Cincinatti/Hamilton part of the district, it will be more than enough to offset any margin that  Chabot gets in the heavily Republican chunk of Butler county in the district. 

Moore probably saw some bad polling numbers. It's not really a surprise -- he's been voting the Democratic party line this year, which I think is the first time he's ever done that.

OH-01 would be an easy hold for Driehaus if Chabot weren't running again. Normally, incumbents don't do well in two year later rematches, but if the climate is good enough for the Republicans, Chabot could very well make a David Price/Ted Strickland-esque comeback. I'd put his chances below Pearce's, though.

I think Chabot is probably the only Republican in a House race that could still be successful tied to Bush.  Chabot voted with Bush almost 100% of the time for eight years and this along with literature aimed at black voters saying that if Chabot wins and Republicans take the House, Obama will be impeached, should be enough to save Driehaus. 

Chabot was an impeachment manager for Clinton too.

I just love the responses congrescritters give when asked that. Moore's was "Time for a new generation of leadership"

The fact you have NY-4 as one of the seats will flip throws your credibility out the window.

Tell me about it.  Even John Kerry won that district by double digits. 

Dems keep NJ-3? Unlikely.

Nearly impossible in a Republican year.

Please show me some polling data to that effect. His opponent is a football player who isn't even living in New Jersey right now.

Adler won this area by significantly less than Obama won it. Its also Saxton's old district. Adler's in deep trouble, if this year is a Republican year.

The only seemingly relevant polling that's been going on in NJ-03 was the one on Election Day 2009. Most ideas of Adler being vulnerable stem from the facts that (1) Christie won the district by 17 points, (2) Runyan is able to self-finance to the extent needed to make the race competitive, and (3) 2010 looks to be a Republican year, especially in places with a significantly large Republican base.

Yeah, it's not even a Dem district.

I'm waiting for the year-end reports to do a bigger update, but I have changed these so far:

Democratic seats:

AR-02 (Vic Snyder) moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - Snyder retiring and his numbers sucked.
NC-08 (Larry Kissell) moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup - Good polling numbers for Kissell.
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy) added to Democratic watch list - Republicans would be fools not to dig up a strong challenger, given Hoeven's likely landslide in the Senate race.
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) added to Democratic watch list - former Rep. Fitzpatrick is running against him.
PA-17 (Tim Holden) added to Democratic watch list - strong Republican recruit from Holden's home turf.

Republican seats:

PA-06 (Jim Gerlach) moved to Lean Republican from Pure Tossup - Gerlach back in the saddle.

I agree with your listing on this one. This Kevin Cramer doesn't appeal to many people from what I read. The GOP needs Wayne Stenejhem(Sp?) to jump in or his brother Anthony. They could clear the field and are both rising stars.

A few more updates before the 4th quarter fundraising numbers are posted next week.

Democratic seats:

AR-01 (Marion Berry) - added to Lean Republican Takeover - Berry retiring; until a good Democratic candidate steps in this is pretty much considered a loss.
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords) - added to Democratic watch list - She actually has a legitimate challenger now.
IN-09 (Baron Hill) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Bad poll, you know the drill.
NM-02 (Harry Teague) - moved to Lean Republican Pickup from Pure Tossup - Teague is in the same boat as Chabot, I doubt his poll numbers are any better (especially since the district is more Republican). I'm going on a hunch for this one, but I've expected him to be a one-termer pretty much since he was elected. The terrible climate for Dems and former Rep. Pearce going back to his seat are pretty much sealing this one.
NY-01 (Tim Bishop) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Bishop up by 2 in a SUSA poll.
NY-20 (Scott Murphy) - moved to Democratic Watch List from Likely Democratic - Still no opponent, but he's a freshman in a swing district, so he's not safe until we see who his opposition ends up being.
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Rematch with Hanna.
OH-01 (Steve Driehaus) - moved to Lean Republican Pickup from Pure Tossup - Terrible poll numbers for Driehaus. This is likely to be a common refrain this year.

Republican seats:

IL-13 (Judy Biggert) - dropped from the list - Harper's fundraising is terrible, this race is not going to be close.

NY-01 a tossup?  That poll included no voters under the age of 30 and Bishop still led by two points.  Even a Republican poll put him up 20 points a few weeks back. 

Regardless of the internals, SUSA's polls are generally good.

I live in the district; SurveyUSA's poll is right.

Post-fourth quarter fundraising update:

Democratic seats:

FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas) - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic - Republicans' fundraising is not very impressive.
GA-02 (Sanford Bishop) - dropped from the list - Mike Keown's fundraising has sputtered to a halt. He's not going to be a challenge to Bishop.
IL-14 (Bill Foster) - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic - Hultgren won the Republican nomination, and he doesn't look like that strong a candidate.
NY-29 (Eric Massa) - moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup - Massa's challenger is pretty unimpressive as far as fundraising goes.
OH-18 (Zack Space) - moved to Democratic Watch List from Likely Democratic - Space has lame opponents.
WI-08 (Steve Kagen) - moved to Democratic Watch List from Likely Democratic - Ribble's fundraising is more like a dribble. Ha ha ha.

Republican seats:

CA-44 (Ken Calvert) - dropped from the list - 2008 appears to have been an aberration and Hedrick is (unsurprisingly) not setting the world on fire with his fundraising.
FL-10 (Bill Young) - moved to Republican Watch List from Likely Republican - Young appears to be running again, and Justice's fundraising is pretty anemic.
FL-12* (Adam Putnam) - dropped from the list - Lori Edwards' fundraising is lacking. Not going to cut it in a Republican-leaning district in this environment.
FL-16 (Tom Rooney) - dropped from the list - Craft has really not turned out to be that great a recruit. He's only raised $100k over two quarters. Rooney will be safe for his sophomore term.
MN-03 (Erik Paulsen) - dropped from the list - Bonoff is not running again, and Paulsen's announced opponents are pretty lame.
MO-08 (Jo Ann Emerson) - dropped from the list - Not gonna happen.

What's the asterisk by Putnam's seat mean? Or just a typo?

Ron Klein's seat should be tossup, in my opinion.

Asterisk denotes open seat, as it says in the OP.

Gotitthanx.

End of the month, let's have some updates:

Democratic seats:

AR-01* (Marion Berry) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic Takeover - Until the Republicans get a better candidate, the Dems could probably hold this one.
FL-22 (Ron Klein) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Polarized district in a bad climate means Klein has a 50/50 shot of winning at this point.
IN-08* (Brad Ellsworth) - added to list at Pure Tossup - Ellsworth running for Senate.
KS-03* (Dennis Moore) - moved to Likely Republican Takeover from Lean Republican Takeover - Complete recruiting failure on the part of the Democrats.
MA-10 (Bill Delahunt) - added to Democratic Watch List - Possible retirement/scandal.
NM-02 (Harry Teague) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican Takeover - Surprisingly, Teague is doing not too terribly in the polls.
NM-01 (Martin Heinrich) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Heinrich up a decent margin, but not overwhelming.
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy) - moved to Lean Democoratic from Democratic Watch List - Bad poll from Rasmussen, not so bad poll from R2k. I'm splitting the difference.
NY-19 (John Hall) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Hayworth has outraised Hall, and recent Dem performance in Westchester does not bode well for the Dems.
OH-13 (Betty Sutton) - added to Democratic Watch List - I'm skeptical of the car magnate's chances in this district, but he does have a lot of money.
PA-12* (Jack Murtha) - moved to Pure Tossup from Democratic Watch List - Murtha's passing makes this a tossup.
TN-06* (Bart Gordon) - moved to Likely Republican Takeover from Lean Republican Takeover - Complete recruiting failure on the part of the Democrats.
VA-09 (Rick Boucher) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Boucher finally has an opponent.

Republican seats:

AZ-03* (John Shadegg) - added to Republican Watch List - Not much chance of a Dem takeover, but their candidate is raising some serious money, and there's the possibility of a fractious Repubican primary.
DE-AL* (Mike Castle) - moved to Likely Democratic Takeover from Lean Democratic Takeover - No serious Republican seems to be interested in running, so Carney is just gaining more and more headway.
FL-10 (Bill Young) - dropped from the list - Young running again, and Justice is a flop of a candidate.
MI-11 (Thad McCotter) - dropped from the list - Not looking like the Democrats will field a serious candidate here.

Gotta comment on NY-01 developments:

Had you asked me about Bishop's chances during the health care town halls in the summer, I would have said he was a goner.

Now things are looking up for him.

First of all, a contentious Republican primary is brewing. There are five or six Republicans fighting for the nomination, among them Nixon's grandson, wealthy businessmen, etc.

Term-limited and popular Independent Suffolk County legislator Jay Schneiderman is considering running on the Independence line (http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/third-party-candidates/84231-third-party-lines-complicating-gop-efforts-in-ny). This is definitely to Bishop's advantage, and the more cynical political observer would say has been planned by Bishop and Schneiderman (part of the insiders group of Bishop/Schneiderman/LaValle/Thiele) to ensure his reelection.

Now all he needs is the Conservative Party to deviate from the Republican Party's choice. Or to not endorse anyone at all.

Lean Dem for now.

Wouldn't that hurt Bishop, since he's gotten the Independence Party ballot line in every election except for his first run?

A few changes before the post-1Q fundraising reports come out:

Democratic seats:

AL-02 (Bobby Bright) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican Takeover - Yes, yes, internal poll, but the Republicans didn't have one in response, and besides, Bright is practically a Republican anyway.
AR-01* (Marion Berry) - moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup - Recruiting failure for the Republicans.
KY-06 (Ben Chandler) - added to Democratic Watch List - Been debating this one, as Chandler has a ton of cash and is personally popular, but Kentucky is not looking so good for the Dems this year and Barr is raising a decent amount of money.
MA-10 (Bill Delahunt) - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Open seat.
NY-29 (Eric Massa)* - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Lean Democratic - Open seat, no Dem bench.
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Fitzpatrick running; I'm still not impressed, but he should still have a good fundraising base.
WV-01 (Alan Mollohan) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Not impressed with the cast of challengers, but Mollohan is low on cash.

Republican seats:

FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart)* - added to Republican Watch List - Open seat that was competitive in 2008. Won't stay if the Dems fail to recruit someone good, though.
NE-02 (Lee Terry) - moved to Likely Republican from Lean Republican - Heineman will crush the opposition at the top of the ticket, so Terry will have an easier time of it.

Of all the Philadelphia suburban counties, Obama did the worst in Bucks County and Mike Fitzpatrick is pretty popular there.  However, I think Pat Murphy will eventually hold his own here.  If Pat Murphy were to retire or run for Senate then yeah this would definitely be a GOP takeover in 2010.  I don't know why the hubbub over PA-7- it's FAR more Democratic and liberal than PA-8- Lentz should have it comfortably, but we will see friction there.

The first quarter reports are mostly in, so I have a bunch of race changes:

Democratic seats:

AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Surprisingly strong fundraising from Paton.
CA-18 (Dennis Cardoza) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
CO-03 (John Salazar) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Frazier is a more serious candidates than most of the $100k/quarter watch list contenders.
CT-04 (Jim Himes) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
CT-05 (Chris Murphy) - added to Democratic Watch List - Republicans have a candidate with deep pockets.
FL-02 (Allen Boyd) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Rich dude running.
GA-02 (Sanford Bishop) - added to Democratic Watch List - I dropped this before, but this may actually end up being the most competitive House race in Georgia, as neither Barrow nor Marshall have drawn serious challengers.
HI-01* (Neil Abercrombie) - moved to Pure Tossup from Democratic Watch List - Democrats seem to be trying to make this their NY-23.
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Top of the ticket is going to be a drag, and Kinzinger is a pretty decent candidate.
IN-02 (Joe Donnelly) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
KS-03* (Dennis Moore) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Likely Republican Takeover - Hey, the Democrats have a candidate now! But they're probably still going to lose this seat!
LA-03* (Charlie Melancon) - moved to Likely Republican Takeover from Lean Republican Takeover - Big-time Republican recruit.
MI-01* (Bart Stupak) - added to list at Pure Tossup - Open seat.
MI-07 (Mark Schauer) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Environment, negative coattails, whatever.
MS-04 (Gene Taylor) - added to Democratic Watch List - Taylor let himself get outraised in 1Q; will this be the year he cruises to defeat?
NV-03 (Dina Titus) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Heck's polling has him ahead; I'm willing to believe it's a tossup.
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Her fundraising suuuuuucks.
NJ-12 (Rush Holt) - added to Democratic Watch List - Yet another moneybags Republican.
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Polls (well, Rasmussen poll) still suck for Pomeroy.
OR-01 (David Wu) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Fundraising, GOP, blah blah blah.
RI-01* (Patrick Kennedy) - added to Democratic Watch List - Open seat, although I think that probably makes it safer than if Kennedy were running again.
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Uninspiring poll numbers for SHS.
UT-02 (Jim Matheson) - dropped from the list - Matheson's likely opponent, Morgan Philpot, raised all of $15k in 1Q. You can't win with no money.
WA-02 (Rick Larsen) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
WV-01 (Alan Mollohan) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Fundraising, GOP, blah blah blah.

Republican seats:

AL-03 (Mike Rogers) - dropped from the list - Josh Segall dropped out.
DE-AL* (Mike Castle) - moved to Lean Democratic Takeover from Likely Democratic Takeover - Republicans finally have a (serious) candidate, assuming she makes it out of the primary.
FL-25* (Mario Diaz-Balart) - moved to Likely Republican from Republican Watch List - Democrats finally recruited a strong candidate somewhere!

Most of my changes will probably mirror yours, fyi... :P

Dont know why people are now suddenly saying NJ-12 will be competitive.  The one county(Hunterdon) that gave Republicans a base in the district was removed in redistricting. 

Some pretty good numbers with regards to fundraising across the country.

Personally I see CO-3 flipping before CO-7, as the former still has strong Republican areas, while CO-7 has trended to the left significantly since its creation. However, both have popular incumbents who really fit their districts, so either way it would take a lot to flip either.

Frazier has raised more money and seems like a better candidate all-around. Other than that I don't see much difference.


I'm not trying to go all Mr. Moderate and say "OMGZ CHRISTIE = REPUBLICANS WIN NEW JERSEY!!!", but they have raised a bumper crop of rich people to run in Democratic districts this year (against Holt, Pallone, and Rothman). Holt has the least money of the three, and stranger things have happened, especially since there's no statewide race to drive turnout.

Remember that Salazar voted for healthcare, despite being a blue doge, and that McCain was able to squeak out a victory there.  That's basically why I view it as more competitive, but of course, I'm not looking in-depth at the candidates and their fundraising and such.

Going by Green Papers (I think it is total raised so far)
Tipton has about $250,000 Salazar has about $980,000
Gardner has about $850,000 Markey has about $1.6 Million
Frazier has about $650,000 Perlmutter has about $1.2 Million

Yeah, that's the total raised. Cash on hand is a little different. Salazar has $1.1m, Tipton has $191k. Markey has $1.25m, Gardner $540k. And Perlmutter also has $1.25m, while Frazier has $379k.

Are there any websites that have COH info easily available?

Johnny, if you had to decide right now, would you guess that Nye and Perriello will be reelected or not?

http://fec.gov/finance/disclosure/srssea.shtml

I couldn't possibly guess at this point.

Being rich is usually not enough to overcome a district that leans very heavily to the other party.  Look at Democrats in 2008 like Jim Harlan and Linda Ketner.  Ketner was able to make it close by spending millions of dollars, but still couldnt overcome the overall tilt of the district.  

Christie won NJ-12 by 50%-43% and owed his margin of victory here to the fact that Corzine did far worse than any Democrat has a right to do in Monmouth county  Democrats typically lose that county by around 10 points, but Corzine lost it by 30. 

Primary season has pushed me to move a bunch of races.

Democratic seats:

FL-02 (Allen Boyd) - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Crappy internal poll.
GA-08 (Jim Marshall) - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Pretty decent recruit for the Republicans, and this is not the district for a Democrat to be in this year.
GA-12 (John Barrow) - dropped from the list - No serious Republican running.
HI-01* (Neil Abercrombie) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - Dems giving up.
KY-06 (Ben Chandler) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Another Appalachian seat at risk.
MD-01 (Frank Kratovil) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - Harris is doing better moneywise than in 2008, which was about the only advantage Kratovil had.
NH-02* (Paul Hodes) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - Bad PPP poll.
NY-13 (Michael McMahon) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Republicans are showing some life here.
OH-06 (Charlie Wilson) - added to Likely Democratic - Seems like the region is hating on the Dems.
OH-13 (Betty Sutton) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - She'd better get her butt in gear.
OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - Kilroy is incredibly weak, Stivers is a strong opponent, I doubt she survives.
OH-18 (Zack Space) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - More for the regional stuff than his opponent.
TX-17 (Chet Edwards) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Bad internal poll from the Flores camp.
VA-09 (Rick Boucher) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Appalachia etc.
WV-01* (Alan Mollohan) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Open seat now.
WV-03 (Nick Rahall) - added to Democratic Watch List - Joke opponents, but Appalachia is not looking good for any Democrat right now.
WI-07* (Dave Obey) - moved to Pure Tossup from Democratic Watch List - Obey retiring.

Republican seats:

OH-02 (Jean Schmidt) - dropped from the list - I think Schmidt's chronic underperformance has come to an end.
NE-02 (Lee Terry) - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican - Poor primary performance.

KY-6 is not Appalachian.

Is "hates black people" a more accurate description?

'White Southern' will do.

A few small changes:

Democratic seats:

HI-01 (Charles Djou) - moved from Lean Republican Takeover to Pure Tossup (on the Republican-held seat list) - Djou wins special election.
ID-01 (Walt Minnick) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican Takeover - Being the token teabagger-supported Democrat will probably help Minnick. Plus his opponent has no money.
NJ-03 (John Adler) - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic - Jon Runyon is, not surprisingly, turning out to be a bit of a flop.
NC-11 (Heath Shuler) - added to Democratic Watch List - Another Appalachian district to watch.
OH-16 (John Boccieri) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Bad Republican poll.
PA-12 (Mark Critz) - moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup - Critz won convincingly.

Republican seats:

VA-01 (Rob Wittman) - dropped from the list - Doesn't look like anything will happen here.

Once the second-quarter fundraising reports come out, I plan on doing some reorganizing of my list (not that anyone cares). Until then, here's a few changes:

Changes since last time:

Democratic seats:

AR-01* (Marion Berry) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Despite the crappy Republican candidate, I'm not feeling at all confident in the Dems' ability to hold this seat.
AR-02* (Vic Snyder) - moved to Likely Republican Takeover from Lean Republican Takeover - Dems chose a bad candidate.
MA-10* (Bill Delahunt) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Democrats running as independents? This can't end well.
NC-02 (Bob Etheridge) - added to list at Likely Democratic - Congratulations on making yourself a target.

I agree with your changes. (two of them were as I saw anyways.  :P)

The one thing I would say is that every competitive Arizona Dem seat needs to be bumped up a notch.  What Obama is doing is simply going to be a disaster for them, I suspect.

Crapload of post-2Q fundraising changes:

Democratic seats:

AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Obama administration fighting the Arizona immigration bill is probably not good news for Arizona Dems.
AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - See above.
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - See above.
ID-01 (Walt Minnick) - moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup - Can't believe I'm doing this, but the Republican effort here has been a big batch of fail.
IL-14 (Bill Foster) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Illinois is not going to be a great state for coattails.
CT-04 (Jim Himes) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Republican challengers with some serious cash.
CT-05 (Chris Murphy) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - See above.
IL-17 (Phil Hare) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
IN-02 (Joe Donnelly) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Challenger has been raising decent money.
IN-09 (Baron Hill) - moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup - Hill's opponent has much less cash, plus he released a poll showing Hill in the lead.
KY-03 (John Yarmuth) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger had a good fundraising quarter.
MN-01 (Tim Walz) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
NY-20 (Scott Murphy) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Murphy's challenger raised a bunch of money.
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - The hapless Arcuri seems doomed, given his all-over-the-place voting record and a rematch with the guy he barely beat in 2008.
NY-29* (Eric Massa) - moved to Likely Republican Takeover from Lean Republican Takeover - Zeller really has no shot at winning this thing. Tom Reed is a crappy fundraiser and still managed to outraise him.
NC-02 (Bob Etheridge) - dropped from the list - Way to not take advantage of a gaffe caught on tape, Renee Ellmers.
NC-11 (Heath Shuler) - dropped from the list - Looks like Miller isn't going to make much of a dent.
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - Pomeroy is doing badly in the Rasmussen polls, plus his opponent is raising buckets of cash, plus Hoeven will be winning atop the ticket with 70+% of the vote.
OR-01 (David Wu) - added to Democratic Watch List - I'm skeptical that Wu is in serious trouble, but his opponent has raised a fair bit of money, and Kitzhaber isn't doing that great at the top of the ticket.
PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper) - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic - 10-1 cash advantage. Ouch.
PA-10 (Chris Carney) - dropped from the list - Marino has been a spectacular failure of a candidate so far, I don't see him turning things around in the last three months.
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - I don't put too much stock in internal polls, but after Kanjo's pathetic performance in 2008, I see no reason not to believe he isn't going down this year.
PA-17 (Tim Holden) - dropped from the list - Another candidate that's turned out to be a big flop, it doesn't look like Argall will do much in his challenge to Holden.
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - SHS isn't doing so well in those Rasmussen polls, plus she's been lucky the last two cycles.
TN-08* (John Tanner) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican Takeover - The Republican primary is getting messy, and Herron seems to be a pretty strong candidate.
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Big fundraising quarter for Canseco (thanks to self-funding), not so much for Rodriguez.

Republican seats:

NE-02 (Lee Terry) - moved to Likely Republican from Lean Republican - Lame fundraising quarter for Tom White.

As someone who promoted the race in the past, and thinks that some Republican representation would improve the delegation, I can't believe I am doing this, but under no circumstances should MA-10 be a pure toss-up. The seats dynamics leave it as probably one of the GOP's best chances in year for a congressional seat in the state, but the problem lies in the fact that both William Keating and Rob O'Leary are significantly stronger candidates than either Jeff Perry or Joe Malone. Keating is a former State Senator of one of the more Republican districts in the state, while Rob O'Leary represents the Perry's base area in the Cape. The Democrats both have COH advantages, with Keating having a nearly 3-1 lead over Perry, and 7-1 over Malone.

As for the Republicans, Malone is well, Malone with all the baggage that entails and looks likely to lose the primary in any case. Perry is pretty Conservative for a D+5 district even with all things being equal, but they are not. For the last few months he has been dogged in the media by a story that he looked on while a teenage girl was inappropriately strip searched by an officer under his command. It is unclear if the story has merit, but its dominating about half of the results on a Google news search and has reached politico.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&tbs=nws%3A1&q=jeff+perry+cape&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0610/39251.html

A Republican here needs to run a perfect campaign and face a flawed opponent. Neither of those seems likely at present. This is not to say that Perry can not win, but this seat probably will require a significant national and local wave at his back to do so.

My problem with the seat is there are two Dems running as Independents. That can't be helpful. Of course, until there's polling on most of these races, most of this is pretty much guesswork.

I think it's worth noting that MA-10 is still a D+5 seat. The only Republican held seats with a higher Dem PVI are DE-AL, IL-10, HI-01 and LA-02. Which could all easily fall this year to boot. Now it ending up the seat with the highest Dem PVI held by a Republican certainly is possible, but it is a good example of why it's not quite a gimme.

The other thing to remember is that while on paper it is always the friendliest seat to national and statewide Republicans, its always been fools goal for the GOP at the congressional level, and over the last four decades they have probably gone after it more than any other seat in the state. They could never take down Studds after all his issues, and the 1996 open race was a 13 point route while Weld was winning the seat for senate. And the area has been a disaster area for the GOP in the legislature, as they have lost seat after seat that they have held since the Civil War in the last few years.

On paper given the national results this should be a close race. Given what the Cape GOP has been capable on the ground, it would be frankly surprising if either of their candidates managed to break 43%, much less win. The inverse might be MA-05 or even 06 where the local GOP is in a lot better shape.

I certainly don't think it's an easy win for the Republicans; of all the tossup open seats on my list, I'd rank it as the least likely to flip. However, it is an open seat, and those tend to be a lot more volatile than seats held by incumbents.

Another bunch of changes.

Changes since last time:

Democratic seats:

Finally took the plunge and split up the tossups into R-leaning/pure/D-leaning.

CT-05 (Chris Murphy) - moved to Democratic Watch List from Likely Democratic - Caligiuri won the nomination and is broke.
ID-01 (Walt Minnick) - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - Labrador is a clown, but even a clown is guaranteed 45% of the vote in this district (as long as he's a Republican).
IN-09 (Baron Hill) - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - Seems appropriate.
IA-03 (Leonard Boswell) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Boswell's biggest threat in this election isn't his opponent, but rather, straight-ticket voting. Branstad/Grassley will likely dominate this district.
KS-03* (Dennis Moore) - moved to Likely Republican Takeover from Lean Republican Takeover - Yoder doesn't look like he will have much trouble winning here.
MI-09 (Gary Peters) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Freshman, Michigan is swinging back to the right, and Raczkowski has shown lately that he can raise some money.
MO-04 (Ike Skelton) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Mostly due to the district's lean.
NJ-03 (John Adler) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Stupid stunt with the teabagger may have helped had they not bungled it.
NM-01 (Martin Heinrich) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Bad SUSA poll.
NM-02 (Harry Teague) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - Given how things are going for the Dems in NM, I don't imagine Teague will be able to survive.
NC-07 (Mike McIntyre) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent fundraising.
NC-08 (Larry Kissell) - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup - Poor fundraising from Kissell.
NC-11 (Heath Shuler) - re-added to Democratic Watch List - OMGWTFSUSA. Probably an outlier, but I'll put it back on just in case.
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy) - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican Takeover - Tightens up right after I moved it, so back it goes.
OH-13 (Betty Sutton) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Dem seat, but she's way outmatched in fundraising.
OR-05 (Kurt Schrader) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - The DCCC dropping some dough in OR-05 makes me wonder about this one.
PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Bad internal poll, so back it goes.
PA-12 (Mark Critz) - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic - I hadn't noticed that Burns had only raised $10k since the special election. Giving up?
VA-05 (Tom Perriello) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - The SUSA poll is probably overstating things by quite a bit, but I have no trouble believing Perriello is in trouble.
WI-03 (Ron Kind) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Kapanke's been doing pretty decently on the money front.

I can see that.


In agreement, especially as now the national Republicans are at least acknowledging his existence.


Mirrors my last change, so yep.


What matters just as much is that Boswell has always been a weak incumbent and when weak incumbents get into bad national situations....  Of course, I've had Boswell at Lean D for months.  :)


Don't know whether I agree.  Yoder is definitely favored (Lean R), but I don't see Likely R, yet at least.


Raczkowski has raised some money (Peters has a ton), but you have to admit the birther stuff don't look too good.  Given D+2 (even in Michigan, where 2008 was likely a tad off), I'm not there yet.


I've been there for a while too...  ;)


When MAS117 is involved in a political stunt....


Albuquerque is a very strange area.  Anything can and will always happen there, regardless of what national numbers say "should happen".  I put it in Lean D the moment Barela raised a few centavos for this reason.


Yep.  Still don't understand what he was doing voting for cap-n-trade in this CD.


Yep.  Plus McIntrye doesn't have much cash on hand himself.


If Kissell can't raise money, this should definitely be in pure tossup, imo, at least.


Should never have been taken off - these are the types of CDs that can mysteriously disappear if a wave comes about, for no reason at all.


Pomeroy is another classic weak incumbent.  But I see no evidence this is anything but tossup right now.  Maybe Republican-leaning, sure.


Yep.


Actually, it makes me wonder whether I should have it in Lean D.  Same with TX-23, btw.


My gut tells me that Dahlkemper is in trouble.  My gut has been wrong before, of course.


I noticed it!  :)


Interestingly, SUSA poll mirrors turnout from both polls in 2006, with both 2008 polls showing a completely different turnout altogether.  Just something to keep in mind.

It should be in Lean R anyway because GOP has united behind Hurt.


Not there yet.

My problem with NC-11 (like PA-10, which I also dropped a while back) is that it's competitive on paper but the Republican nominee has raised very little money. I've looked back at the last couple cycles and found that with very few exceptions, you have to raise at least $1 million to win a seat from the other party. And the ones where the challenger didn't raise that much money were flukes (Shea-Porter, Loebsack, Boyda, and Cao). I guess Miller can be a fluke, but the odds aren't in his favor.

What changes if you assume team GOP gets a ton of money in the next two months, as the sharks smell chum in the water? At the moment, independent expenditures can be unlimited per the SCOTUS decision.

I have no idea.

Fair enough.

I have this gut feeling now that we have reached an inflection point, and there is maybe now a 60% chance that there will be a wave, and the GOP will take back the House, and then some. The economic news is just terrible, the Dems are demoralized, with the Left mad at Obama, Obama has really mishandled the immigration issue (this business of not wanting to make the border more secure in order to have leverage to legalize millions of folks, cannot possible sit well with a majority of the voters), and the Dems borrowing another 26  billion to keep public employees employed (ya they say it is paid for, but they ain't cutting food stamps, so that will go by the wayside, just like the slash in doctor reimbursements), insurance premiums are ratcheting up, and emergency rooms are more clogged than ever, since so many docs will not take medicaid patients anymore, because they lose money on them. Can the news get any more terrible?

It looks to me like we may well be heading into a perfect storm, and the boat is not going to make it back to port.

The question to ask is whether outside of the Coal industry, is there a real desire to see the Republicans, or more specifically the current Republicans back in office. A lot of companies that normally lean GOP, say Wal-Mart for instance, benefited from the stimulus even if the economy of the whole did not, and we are past the point, illustrated by Stockman's NYT piece two weeks ago, where any corporate leaders think GOP economic plan, which seems to be to repeat Obama's stimulus feat, only with tax cuts targeted uselessly instead of spending.

I think Corporate America is probably unhappy with the Democrats, but its worth asking yourself how much they would be happy with the GOP in an ideological and inflexible mood. There is a general rule with companies. With exception of say Oil and mining, the larger they get, the more left-leaning they tend to be. Do you really think Micorsoft or Apple likes the Tea Party, or want what would be termed "Conservatives" in fly-over country? Rick Snyder and to a lesser extent Whitman, and Baker in MA would benefit from corporate money, but they are in state races. Do you really expect them to back Angle though? Given the change in the balance of power in the economy over the last two decades, I would not expect a general backing of the GOP at least this year.

Its always worth questioning whether large business interests have the interests of the business community as a whole. They clearly hate the new banking regulations, but again the stimulus was quite popular with many of them for the wrong reasons, and government subsidies for health-care are actually good for them as it saves them money. Its the ordinary tax payers who have to pick it up.

As I say, when it is viewed that a party seems poised to take power, the special interests run to get on the train before it leaves the station. It is about buying access; ideology is secondary for those who need to "manage" Washington to protect their bottom line.

But the GOP already in that respect is bought, and can be bought once they are in office. Keeping the Democrats bought and not heading off in a populist direction is far more important at this point. And Obama will still be in office for the next two years and potentially longer. So you will get some of that, but its not as if the current slate of GOP candidates is the party of big business especially in the tech or financial sectors.

Also I think there has been a difference here between "special interests" ie. those lobbying because they want something direct, ie. resource extraction firms, defense contractors, and corporate America as a whole. The first group will dump a lot of money for the GOP. The latter are geographical in their support anyway, and need to stay on good terms with the Administration. Neither of the two are the ones with lots of cash hanging around, as most of them have been losing money. The people with a ton of excess cash, the financial and tech sectors, have not been particularly pro-Republican except for the brief period when they had total power in 2004 and looked like they would keep it. Its why I thought the decision would have a greater impact on the internal dynamics of the Democratic party than on partisan politics. The old standbys in the Chamber just don't control a majority of the cash anymore, and ironically Citizens United weakens the Chamber vis-e-ve its individual members.

The big impact is likely to be on issues like Prop 8 where I would not be surprised to see say Microsoft dump millions into an effort to beat a Washington equivalent. Eminent domain as well. The recent California Proposition on Car Insurance is probably another example of the type of issue where it will be felt.

Heh, the Democrats are bought and paid for too. I once heard a quote, don't remember who said it, that 90% of Republicans were bought, compared to only 60% of Democrats :P

But seriously (not that the above wasn't serious ;)), I imagine most of the "special interests" (I use that term very broadly) focused very little on the Republicans the past four years or so, given that they were largely irrelevant. Thus, when the tide turned in favor of Republicans, they have to ensure that they're in their pockets if they should take back either or both houses of congress.

Wow, that was one cynical post!

I will say that, as tired a statement as it is, PA-12 showed us that candidates do matter. If the Republicans had nominated strong (or, hell, competent) candidates in ID-01 and AL-02, we wouldn't even be talking about those districts, because they'd be as good as gone for the Dems. All the money in the world poured in from outside can only provide so much polish for some of the Republican turds running.

Can you explain just why then  Sharron "the candidate from the innermost ring of Dantian hell" Angle is running even with Reid then?

I wrote this a few weeks ago.


Quite frankly, I think the evidence is now there to put GOP chances of taking the House at 50-50.  Can't agree on the 60% yet.  Still probably at 10% in the Senate, though.

Sam, as I say I am extrapolating based on a gut feeling, and a sense that I have that folks are beginning to panic a bit, and/or get really mad, above and beyond the usual suspects of the GOP base. I of course could be totally full of sh**t. But, well, just relying on polls and money all the time gets boring - at least for me. So when a divining  rod magically comes into my hands, I "enjoy" playing with it a bit. It is also hard in this environment for pollsters to predict turnout models - very hard. And finally I am impressed with the high GOP primary turnouts of late, and the low Dem ones. So I am giving myself "permission" to rely on my instincts here a bit. Don't you like to give yourself permission to do stuff, Sam?

Considering the polling has gone from favoring her by mid-single digits to favoring Reid by mid-single digits, I don't really see what's to explain.

Edit: I would say the odds of a Republican takeover of the House are 50/50 at this point. Which, as I keep saying, would be better for the Democrats than holding on to the House by a slim margin, leaving their agenda to be ripped to shreds (even more than before) by the Blue Dogs.

Yes, I agree that if the goal is to defeat Obama, a GOP gain in the House of about 33 seats would be ideal for the reasons you say. But as for the Senate ... the sky is the limit as to this consideration.  :)

Let's see what the next poll says about Sharron. I suspect she might even it up. The Dems have had a really terrible couple of weeks - just awful.

Most of the bad economic news is stuff that doesnt matter to ordinary Americans such as trade deficits and manufacturing numbers.  The unemployment rate has fallen from 10.1% late last year to 9.5% and probably wont rise much if at all before the election.  Most of the real bad economic news will come after the election(stuff like the fact that another recession started in August, unemployment back over 10% ect). 

Of course.  Fwiw, I don't think your conclusion is out of the mainstream of possibilities at all.

Because her opponent is Reid. Any other Democrat in the state would be destroying her soundly.

Of course rather amusingly, facing her is the only reason Reid has a chance.

Yes, you have a point there. Reid is singularly awful. When he speaks, it is like listening to chalk scratch on a chalk board; the guy seems always so f'ing resentful and angry - about everything. And he has zero sense of humor to boot - zero.

Some mickey mouse polling outfit or other has Skelton up by only 3pts or so, fwiw.

Post-primary (and other) changes:

Democratic seats:

AR-01* (Marion Berry) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - Crappy Republican candidate, but I think Blanche is going to drag Democrats down with her. Also not helping things is Wooldridge's surrogates endorsing the Republican. Oh, and that Talk Business poll didn't help.
AR-04 (Mike Ross) - added to Democratic Watch List - See above, except the Republican nominee is even worse, and Ross is an incumbent.
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Just a gut feeling on this one.
CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Another gut feeling.
FL-02 (Allen Boyd) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Extremely poor primary performance.
FL-08 (Alan Grayson) - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - Tons of money, but I don't see how being a big-mouthed liberal in a swing district is going to be helpful in a year like this.
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas) - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - Freshman + Republican-leaning district.
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Freshman + strong challenger + no coattails + bad poll + firing campaign manager in the last 2 1/2 months = uh oh.
IN-08* (Brad Ellsworth) - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup - Ellsworth is doing terribly in the Senate race, and open seats seem to be falling left and right to the Republicans.
MI-01* (Bart Stupak) - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup - Republicans got the better candidate, geographically speaking. There's a conservative independent who's threatening to spend $2 million of his own money, which could change things significantly.
MO-03 (Russ Carnahan) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Not totally convinced by the WAA poll, but Martin is keeping pace with Carnahan on the money front.
OH-16 (John Boccieri) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Freshman + Republican district + strong challenger.
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Weak incumbent + strong challenger.
WA-02 (Rick Larsen) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Pretty strong primary performance by Koster.
WA-03* (Brian Baird) - re-added to the list at Republican-Leaning Tossup - Don't know where this went, but the primary performance was bad for the Dems.
WV-03 (Nick Rahall) - dropped from the list - Spike Maynard is failing at fundraising, and now Rahall gets some Manchin coattails to ride.

Republican seats:

AZ-03* (John Shadegg) - moved to Likely Republican from Republican Watch List - Ben Quayle won the primary.
FL-25* (Mario Diaz-Balart) - moved to Pure Tossup from Likely Republican - Bizarre behavior from the Republican nominee unearthed.
WA-08 (Dave Reichert) - moved to Likely Republican from Lean Republican - Strong performance by Reichert and weak performance by DelBene in the open primary.

A second big batch of changes to reflect the fact that Democrats are pretty much screwed:


AL-02 (Bobby Bright) - moved to Pure Tossup from Democratic-Leaning Tossup - Finding it hard to see a Dem winning a district this red, even if he is basically a Republican.
AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Freshman, Republican-leaning district, immigration.
AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell) - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - Rematch with the guy he only beat by 9 points in 2008.
CO-03 (John Salazar) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Republican district, though the challenger is no great shakes.
CO-04 (Betsy Markey) - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup - Republican district, freshman incumbent.
GA-08 (Jim Marshall) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Republican district, good candidate.
IN-02 (Joe Donnelly) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Ellsworth is a complete failure of a statewide candidate.
IN-09 (Baron Hill) - moved to Pure Tossup from Democratic-Leaning Tossup - See above.
IA-03 (Leonard Boswell) - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - Swing district + straight-ticket voting.
KY-06 (Ben Chandler) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Say it with me: Republican district, decent challenger.
MO-04 (Ike Skelton) - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - Uber-Republican district.
NY-13 (Michael McMahon) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Republican-leaning district, though you can always count on the Staten Island GOP to screw things up.
NY-20 (Scott Murphy) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Swing district, strong challenger, freshman incumbent.
OR-05 (Kurt Schrader) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Kind of following Sam with this one, but again, it's a freshman in a swing district.
PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper) - moved to Democratic-leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - Democrats are getting their asses kicked in PA.
PA-04 (Jason Altmire) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - see above.
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) - moved to Democratic-leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - see above.
PA-10 (Chris Carney) - re-added to list at Likely Democratic - Blah blah, terrible candidate but the same as above.
SC-05 (John Spratt) - moved to Democratic-leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - Republican district, decent challenger, and Spratt is on his way out in 2012 anyway.
TN-04 (Lincoln Davis) - moved to Democratic-leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic - Another uber-Republican district, though the challenger sucks.
WA-03* (Brian Baird) - moved to Lean Republican from Republican-Leaning Tossup - This one looks to be gone.
WI-08 (Steve Kagen) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Terrible candidates, but it's a Republican district.

With the primaries more or less over comes a bevy of changes.

Changes since last time:

Merged the Dem watch list with Likely Dem. Might as well, as the watch list has been dwindling.

Democratic seats:

AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell) - D-Leaning Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
AR-04 (Mike Ross) - Dropped from the List
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
CA-20 (Jim Costa) - Added to Likely D
CO-03 (John Salazar) - Likely D -> Lean D
CO-04 (Betsy Markey) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R Takeover
FL-02 (Allen Boyd) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
FL-08 (Alan Grayson) - D-Leaning Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas) - D-Leaning Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
GA-02 (Sanford Bishop) - Likely D -> Lean D
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
IL-14 (Bill Foster) - Lean D -> Tossup
IL-17 (Phil Hare) - Likely D -> Lean D
IA-01 (Bruce Braley) - Added to Likely D
IA-02 (Dave Loebsack) - Added to Likely D
MA-10* (Bill Delahunt) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
MI-07 (Mark Schauer) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
MO-04 (Ike Skelton) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
NV-03 (Dina Titus) - Tossup -> D-Leaning Tossup
OH-18 (Zack Space) - Likely D -> Lean D
PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
PA-10 (Chris Carney) - Likely D -> Tossup
PA-12 (Mark Critz) - Likely D -> Lean D
PA-17 (Tim Holden) - Added to Likely D
RI-01* (Patrick Kennedy) - Dropped from the List
SC-05 (John Spratt) - D-Leaning Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
VA-11 (Gerry Connolly) - Likely D -> Lean D
WA-02 (Rick Larsen) - Likely D -> Lean D
WV-03 (Nick Rahall) - Added to Likely D
WI-08 (Steve Kagen) - Likely D -> Lean D

Republican seats:

AZ-03* (John Shadegg) - Dropped from the List
CA-03 (Dan Lungren) - Lean R -> Likely R
CA-45 (Mary Bono Mack) - Dropped from the List
FL-25* (Mario Diaz-Balart) - Tossup -> Lean R
NE-02 (Lee Terry) - Dropped from the List
OH-12 (Pat Tiberi) - Dropped from the List
PA-06 (Jim Gerlach) - Lean R -> Likely R
PA-15 (Charlie Dent) - Lean R -> Likely R

How did the primary shift MA-10? The far more conservative candidate won the Republican nomination if I am reading stuff right.

A large margin of victory for Perry on an unprecedented GOP turnout. Add in that the Democrats got the worst possible geographical showdown(a Boston area Dem v. a Cape Republican) albeit with a marginally better candidate, and Perry is in much better shape than he looked a month ago. Also, Perry's money issues should disappear and Baker will do well there. I might tip it slightly to him. Of course I would put his odds of being there in 2013 on a level with Cao's.

This, basically, plus there are a couple of Democrats running as independents, although that may help Keating if they soak up independent voters that don't want to vote for a Democrat. Keating is still a much better candidate than Perry, though, so I wouldn't write him off at all.

Some changes:

Democratic seats:

AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez) - Likely D -> Lean D
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
MI-07 (Mark Schauer) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
MI-09 (Gary Peters) - Likely D -> Lean D
MS-01 (Travis Childers) R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
NJ-03 (John Adler) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri) - Lean R takeover -> Tossup
OH-18 (Zack Space) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
PA-07* (Joe Sestak) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) - Tossup -> Lean R
TX-17 (Chet Edwards) - Tossup -> Lean R

You really think Childers isn't even competitive anymore? Has there been any polling out of there?

Just internal polls. It's more a feeling than anything else.

Another batch of changes...

Democratic seats:

CT-04 (Jim Himes) - Likely D -> Lean D
FL-08 (Alan Grayson) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
GA-08 (Jim Marshall) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
ID-01 (Walt Minnick) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Lean D
IL-17 (Phil Hare) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
IN-08* (Brad Ellsworth) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
IN-09 (Baron Hill) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
KY-06 (Ben Chandler) - Lean D -> Likely D
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
NJ-03 (John Adler) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
NM-02 (Harry Teague) - Lean R -> Tossup
NY-13 (Michael McMahon) - Lean D -> Likely D
NY-19 (John Hall) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
NY-20 (Scott Murphy) - Lean D -> Likely D
NY-23 (Bill Owens) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
NC-07 (Mike McIntyre) - Likely D -> Lean D
OH-01 (Steve Driehaus) - Lean R -> Likely R
OH-16 (John Boccieri) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
VA-05 (Tom Perriello) - Lean R -> Likely R
WI-08 (Steve Kagen) - Lean D -> Tossup

Republican seats:

CA-03 (Dan Lungren) - Likely R -> Lean R
WA-08 (Dave Reichert) - Likely R -> Lean R

Rather strikingly, I just figured out that of the 82 incumbent Democrats on my list as being potentially vulnerable, 54 of them were elected between 2006 and 2009. In fact, the only seats the Democrats picked up over the past four years that I don't have on my list are CT-02 and NY-25 (VT-AL doesn't really count, since Sanders caucused with the Dems).

These ten survived the Republican Revolution:

Elected in 1992: GA-02 (Sanford Bishop), ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy), PA-17 (Tim Holden)
Elected in 1990: TX-17 (Chet Edwards)
Elected in 1989: MS-04 (Gene Taylor)
Elected in 1984: PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)
Elected in 1982: SC-05 (John Spratt), VA-09 (Rick Boucher)
Elected in 1976: MO-04 (Ike Skelton), WV-03 (Nick Rahall)

Pomeroy and Spratt were the only ones even held to single-digits that year; 52-45 for Pomery, 52-48 for Spratt.

This week's changes, all Dems:

AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
CO-03 (John Salazar) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
CO-04 (Betsy Markey) - Lean R -> Likely R
MI-01* (Bart Stupak) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
OH-18 (Zack Space) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
TN-08* (John Tanner) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
TX-17 (Chet Edwards) - Lean R -> Likely R

I'm not sure why you'd leave NY-25 off the list -- it's certainly not what I'd consider "safe."

Internal polls are what they are, but ... (http://www.politico.com/static/PPM152_101007_ny_exec_summary.html)

I could probably put another 20-30 seats on my list as having a greater-than-zero chance of flipping, but I'm pretty skeptical that these third or fourth-tier opportunities are going to go anywhere. It won't be a blowout, but I don't think Maffei is in any serious danger.

Okay, here's a list of seats with greater-than-zero chances of flipping, but which I'm not putting on my list. If any of these end up flipping, I guess I'll feel silly.

AZ-07
AR-04
GA-12
IL-08
ME-01
ME-02
MA-04
MA-06
MI-15
MN-07
MN-08
NJ-06
NM-03
NY-02
NY-04
NY-22
NY-25
NC-02
OK-02
OR-04
PA-13
RI-01
TN-05
TX-27
UT-02
WA-09

FWIW, Cook has moved NY-25 into the lean category.

Weekly update:

Democratic seats:

CA-11 (Jerry McNerney) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter) - Likely D -> Lean D
CT-05 (Chris Murphy) - Likely D -> Lean D
FL-02 (Allen Boyd) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
GA-02 (Sanford Bishop) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
MI-09 (Gary Peters) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
MN-01 (Tim Walz) - Likely D -> Lean D
MS-04 (Gene Taylor) - Likely D -> Lean D
NV-03 (Dina Titus) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
NH-02* (Paul Hodes) - Lean R -> R-Leaning Tossup
NJ-12 (Rush Holt) - Likely D -> Lean D
OH-13 (Betty Sutton) - Lean D -> Likely D
PA-07* (Joe Sestak) - Lean R -> R-Leaning Tossup
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
WI-07* (Dave Obey) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
WI-08 (Steve Kagen) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup

Republican seats:

AZ-03* (John Shadegg) - Returned to list at Lean Republican
MN-06 (Michele Bachmann) - Dropped from the list

I think you should add a few of those "greater than 0 chance" races to your likely dem list because otherwise your going to wake up on the 3rd with a couple of races that flip and are not on your list and a lot that are going to be close that are not on your list.

First of all, I actually have MN 8 flipping to GOP. Id say that the chances of that are pretty close to walz in mn 1 taking his seat and is the most likely of the old boys(dingell, frank, oberstar, hoyer) to fall. I also have MA 6 flipping GOP. Both of those I have flipping GOP while I'm predicting that CA 20 is going to stay dem when that is currently on realclears tossup column.

2nd 1s that I have extremely close on the dem side:
ME 2
MA 4
NM 3
TX 27
WA 9

On the GOP side:
AZ 3 been calling this one close for a while. It took a poll for everybody to see this one
MI 3 here's another for you. This one is a lot closer than you think.

Ill add some more for you in a min

There are a ton of closer races than:
PA 4: altmire is pretty damn safe
ID 2: same for minnick
Oh 13: pretty much throwing in the towel now

1 more for each party that I have very close that you should have listed in at least likely territory
Dem: NY 4
GOP: NE 2

Otherwise I have a few that I have closer than some of your "likely's" like MI 15, or OR 4. And I reorder a lot of yours in the likely, lean, tossup areas but ill just leave it. At least they are on your list.

I also have my big, big sleeper this race which you would need to read through my thread o get.

The penultimate update. I broke down and added a few more seats.

Democratic seats:

AZ-07 (Raul Grijalva) - Added to list at Likely D
GA-08 (Jim Marshall) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
IL-17 (Phil Hare) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
IN-08* (Brad Ellsworth) - Lean R -> Likely R
KY-06 (Ben Chandler) - Likely D -> Lean D
MD-01 (Frank Kratovil) - Lean R -> Likely R
MI-07 (Mark Schauer) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
NM-02 (Harry Teague) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
NY-01 (Tim Bishop) - Tossup -> D-Leaning Tossup
NY-19 (John Hall) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
NY-20 (Scott Murphy) - Likely D -> Lean D
NY-22 (Maurice Hinchey) - Added to list at Likely D
NC-08 (Larry Kissell) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
NC-11 (Heath Shuler) - Likely D -> Lean D
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
OH-06 (Charlie Wilson) - Likely D -> Lean D
OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy) - Lean R -> Likely R
OR-05 (Kurt Schrader) - Lean D -> Tossup
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) - Lean R -> R-Leaning Tossup
PA-17 (Tim Holden) - Dropped from the list
TN-04 (Lincoln Davis) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
VA-02 (Glenn Nye) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R

Republican seats:

FL-12* (Adam Putnam) - Added to list at Likely R
IL-10* (Mark Kirk) - Tossup -> D-Leaning Tossup
MI-03* (Vern Ehlers) - Added to list at Likely R

Last group of changes. I added a few more seats.

Democratic seats:

AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords) - Tossup -> D-Leaning Tossup
CA-20 (Jim Costa) - Likely D -> Tossup
CO-03 (John Salazar) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
ID-01 (Walt Minnick) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
IL-17 (Phil Hare) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
IA-03 (Leonard Boswell) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Lean D
ME-01 (Chellie Pingree) - Added to list at Likely D
MA-10* (Bill Delahunt) - Tosup -> D-Leaning Tossup
MN-08 (Jim Oberstar) - Added to list at Lean D
MS-04 (Gene Taylor) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
NV-03 (Dina Titus) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
NJ-03 (John Adler) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
NM-01 (Martin Heinrich) - Lean D -> Tossup
NY-20 (Scott Murphy) - Lean D -> Tossup
NY-23 (Bill Owens) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
NC-02 (Bob Etherige) - Added to list at Tossup
OR-05 (Kurt Schrader) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
SC-05 (John Spratt) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
VA-09 (Rick Boucher) - Lean D -> Tossup
VA-11 (Gerry Connolly) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
WA-03* (Brian Baird) - Lean R -> R-Leaning Tossup

Republican seats:

FL-25* (Mario Diaz-Balart) - Lean R -> Tossup

---

I guess it's time to make a final prediction, although it seems rather pointless, since nobody knows what the hell is going on.

R pickups: All Likely/Lean/Leaning Tossups (43)
D pickups: All Lean/Leaning Tossups (3)

Now, to the pure tossups...

AL-02 (Bobby Bright) - R win - Bright is scary resilient, since he's essentially a Republican, but I just don't see how anyone with a D by their name can hold on in a heavily-Republican Deep South district.
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney) - D hold - McNerney's a good guy, I think he hangs on by the skin of his teeth.
CA-20 (Jim Costa) - R win - I think the SUSA poll is overstating things, but Costa seems to be in trouble here.
CO-03 (John Salazar) - R win - I expect Buck and Tancredo to pull Tipton across the finish line.
FL-22 (Ron Klein) - D hold - West is the wrong candidate for this district, despite his huge money advantage.
IL-14 (Bill Foster) - D hold - Foster seems to be the strongest of the endangered Illinois incumbents, oddly.
MI-07 (Mark Schauer) - D hold - Can't believe Schauer isn't losing this (even to Walberg), but Snyder seems to have no coattails.
MO-04 (Ike Skelton) - R win - Another heavily-Republican district, and Missouri is swinging hard to the Republicans this year.
NM-01 (Martin Heinrich) - D hold - The district tends to favor incumbents.
NY-19 (John Hall) - R win - Tightened up in the last few minutes, but this is exactly the kind of district that Republicans are primed to win back this year.
NY-20 (Scott Murphy) - R win - Might be putting too much stock in that Siena poll, but Murphy's barely an incumbent.
NY-23 (Bill Owens) - R win - Owens's best shot is for people to not know Hoffman has dropped out. Thin campaign strategy.
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri) - D hold - Another one I can't believe isn't falling like a domino.
NC-02 (Bob Etherige) - D hold - Again, the SUSA/Civitas poll is a little suspect, in my opinion. Plus Ellmers is a rotten candidate. Not that that's stopping voters elsewhere.
NC-08 (Larry Kissell) - R win - Kissell is going to get dragged down by Marshall's defeat in this district.
OH-18 (Zack Space) - R win - Ohio's just not a good place for a Democrat to be right now.
PA-10 (Chris Carney) - D hold - Carney's lucky to have such a terrible opponent; anyone stronger and he'd be dead.
TN-04 (Lincoln Davis) - R win - I think Davis might eke out a win here, since Desjarlais is yet another mediocre candidate, but I'm doubtful.
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez) - R win - Ciro's a weak incumbent, and his opponent has the right ethnicity (and more money).
VA-09 (Rick Boucher) - D hold - Morgan Griffith will be a Congressman by 2013, but I don't think he will be one next year.

So that's 11 more Republican pickups.

And the Republican ones...

FL-25* (Mario Diaz-Balart) - R hold - Awful, awful Republican candidate, but the Cuban vote is very hard to peel off for the Democrats.
HI-01 (Charles Djou) - D win - Hanabusa underpolled before, I think she is again.

One more Dem pickup, which puts us at a net +50 Republican gains. If things go even more badly for the Dems, I can see most of the Dem-leaning tossups and a few of the Lean Ds falling, so there you go.