Talk Elections

Go.

February 13, 2010.

Is that a guess, or did he make it official?

when is the deadline?

Total guess.

July 22nd

Soon.

If he doesn't announce it in January, it probably won't happen.

How do you know this? 

Last I heard, the New York primaries might need to be moved up to comply with new federal rules on military absentee ballots.  The NYS Board of Elections hasn't posted their 2010 political calendar yet.

I doubt he announces real soon since he has superior name recognition and money.

When the dark clouds move in from the east and the coyotes begin to howl in the distance... that's when.

As an offhand thought, the less time he actually has to "campaign" for the primary, the better off Cuomo would be.  If Paterson isn't able to engage in a negative, defensive campaign, then Cuomo seems to win by default and be better positioned for the general.

Yeah, Cuomo could declare the day before the filing deadline and walk into the nomination. He doesn't need to announce any time soon.

It would be impossible for Cuomo to declare the day before the filing deadline in New York.  By definition, were Cuomo to wait that long, he wouldn't be the parties' nominee, and would have to go out and get enough signatures to get on the ballot.  That doesn't happen in a day - and someone would notice if Cuomo for Governor petitions were circulating sooner.

At the latest, Cuomo must declare before the NYS Democratic Party Convention, which likely will be held in May.   In the real world, he has to announce sooner than that to start to build support at the convention - probably in the next few months.

Lunar - you're forgetting one thing.  The blacks won't like that type of maneuver.  And Paterson is not blind enough to miss that attack opportunity (he'd probably make it his own campaign).  Which is why it'll happen soon or not happen at all.

Add to that what cinyc said.

I don't see why entering the race early is going to help Cuomo with black voters

I don't see why it would either.  But if he is concerned about his general election position, he should be concerned about pissing them off by appearing to sweep the black man off his pedestal (even an unpopular black man).

That problem may arise whenever he enters though.

Even if the blacks aren't big on him, who cares? Who's going to beat him?

Besides I have a tough time seeing Paterson being insanely popular even among blacks.

That's not what matters.  Cuomo faces the danger of black people reacting negatively to his entry on the thought that he's taking away the office from a black.  The more he acts entitled to the office, the more likely that event is to occur.

As for the general election, I doubt the Republicans have the candidate to defeat him but don't forget that the Cuomos still have a lot of enemies in NY and the black percentage of the population is not trivial.

Poll after poll has shown Cuomo absolutely murdering Paterson among blacks. A smear campaign by Paterson and the Al Sharptons of the world may damage his position among them a bit but this is a little ridiculous. Paterson is not popular with blacks or really anyone for that matter.

If blacks start to dislike Cuomo if/when he enters (assuming Paterson stays in the race), Cuomo can always tell them that Obama personally told Paterson to withdraw from the race.

If you don't believe me, just watch.  That assumes, of course, that he waits forever to file or actually runs at all, of course.

And how well did it go over in NY when Obama hinted that "we want Cuomo, not you"?

NYers don't like be told what to do.  Especially by outsiders.

Would it be better if Hillary told them? She's not an outsider (at least, not anymore).

Don't worry, I'll tell them. Problem solved.

Has there been a poll anyway showing Paterson's approval among blacks? I'm curious. I'm kind of wondering who the hell the 25% or so are, much like the 15% with Bob Taft.

For Paterson, blacks and hardcore liberals. For Taft, hardcore conservatives, teabaggers, and people who remember his great-grandfather's Presidency fondly.

The hardcore conservatives and teabaggers HATED Taft. Similarly I'm getting the same impression from hardcore liberals about Paterson.

The most likely explanation is people who are very partisan but generally apolitical, aka they always show up to vote for their party but don't really care about what happens after the election.

Doesn't Cuomo leader Paterson among blacks?

He swamps him among blacks.

Do you know anyone personally who likes Paterson?

No, not really... although many non-political people barely know who the guy is in the first place.

I like Paterson.

Governor Paterson's 15-year-old son was detained by the NYPD (http://www.nydailynews.com/news/ny_crime/2010/01/12/2010-01-12_gov_patersons_teenage_son_arrested_for_possession_of_stoalen_credit_card.html) for loitering for the purposes of gambling and found in possession of a stolen credit card today.  That would give Paterson a convenient excuse to drop out of the race.

So do I.

The difference between the Spitzer/Paterson of 2006 and the Spitzer/Paterson of today has got to be one of the biggest declines in American political history.

Meh, I'd argue Patrick has been worse. Spitzer has handled everything post-resignation perfectly and is now a viable candidate again. I remember a very sympathetic TIME article about him recently. Paterson was never that big of a deal on the ticket. Even in terms of approvals, Arnold Schwarzenegger arguably did worse in his collapse.

I don't like his policies but I find him to be of a much better character than any democrat in that state.  He's been thrown under the bus and for that matter so has Charlie Rangel by democrats who have done much worse things.

It's hard to beat Paterson's sense of humor.  From his stand-up comedic roleplay-mocking of blind, disabled people criticizing him on TV ads to his statement that he plans to be president in 2017 because "once you go black, you never go back,"  Paterson seriously has one of my favorite personalities in politics.


A good governor can spurn special interests and convince the people he is doing is good for them.  Paterson, when he's not taking the racial, bombastic perspective on public issues, is good at taking the "right" position on issues but is not particularly adept at convincing people that he took the right issue.


Him being genuinely one of the funniest politicians in America (in a non-ironic/sarcastic way) is why I like him.  He's a bit of a moderate hero on economic issues, and everyone knows how I'm a sucker for that :)

So you just admitted to Moderate Heroism.

It worked pretty well in clearing the primary field for Gillibrand.

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has pledges for contributions that would put him above the $16.1 million his campaign reported yesterday, a supporter familiar with his fundraising operation said.

Cuomo’s treasury already totals more than five times the $3 million banked by Governor David Paterson. Cuomo associates say he intends to challenge Paterson in a Sept. 14 Democratic primary election.

The Cuomo supporter, who requested anonymity, said that fundraisers asked some donors to defer contributions to help create momentum as the primary approaches and that others preferred to pay in installments. Some strategists didn’t want the campaign to appear too confident, the person said.

“There’s two measures at this point, the polls and the money, and now Cuomo can say, ‘Not only do I have strong poll numbers, but I’m going to outspend you,’” said Doug Muzzio, professor of urban politics at Baruch College in Manhattan.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-01-16/cuomo-raised-more-than-16-million-for-n-y-race-person-says.html

Just go ahead and declare what everyone knows dude.

It was a more than a bit mocking if you couldn't tell.

Schumer did a lot of that, Obama was the cherry on top for dissuading Israel

I think it would have been good if Israel ran. That way, we could get a more reliable Democrat in his House seat.

Is it just me or is that REALLY stupid?  While it will probably work for Cuomo as he seems a lock for the governorship, and it works in theory, having a check that you've already cashed and put in your campaign account is probably 50% more valuable than someone promising to give you a check on a later date.  

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The New York Daily News reports (http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2010/01/23/2010-01-23_source_says_andrew_cuomo_will_announce_plans_to_run_for_new_york_governor_in_mar.html) Cuomo will announce he's running for governor at the end of March.

Good news.