Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2010 Elections => Topic started by: Purple State on January 10, 2010, 11:27:04 pm



Title: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Purple State on January 10, 2010, 11:27:04 pm
Both events could be a very big change for New York as a result of the 2010 cycle. I understand that if Schumer were to become Senate Majority Leader, it wouldn't necessarily occur until 2011, but I include it because it relies on a loss by Sen. Reid.

So which is it? Governor Andrew Cuomo? Majority Leader Chuck Schumer? Both? Neither?


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Apocrypha on January 10, 2010, 11:29:23 pm
Both are pretty likely.

and I agree, Schumer is probably more favored to be Majority Leader than Durbin


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Psychic Octopus on January 10, 2010, 11:31:37 pm
Both are equally possible.


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Cigarettes & Saints on January 10, 2010, 11:35:20 pm
Governor Cuomo is basically a certainty.


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: RIP Robert H Bork on January 10, 2010, 11:36:52 pm
Option 1, duh.


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: nhmagic on January 11, 2010, 02:06:03 am
Cuomo becoming governor is far more likely.  Durbin will be the new majority leader - Obama will want a buddy from Illinois in there, like with everything else.


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Lunar on January 11, 2010, 03:15:09 am
Cuomo is a near certainty .  I think Durbin will have maybe a 70% at replacing Reid, while I think Reid has probably a 50-70% of losing reelection.  I disagree with the above poster, however, in that i think Obama also coming from Chicago will actually hurt Durbin's chances. 

What people might not get is that while Schumer is valued as a tactician, he is not particularly telegenic and Durbin is really good at what he does even if he's not always the best politician.  I think Schumer would be a far better majority leader, but I'm not sure if I trust the Democratic caucus to respect that.

We'll see. 


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Cigarettes & Saints on January 11, 2010, 03:24:42 am
What percentage of the population knows:

A: Who the Majority Leader is
and
B: What state they are from?


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Lunar on January 11, 2010, 03:44:25 am
What percentage of the population knows:

A: Who the Majority Leader is
and
B: What state they are from?

2-4%?

I'm not sure.


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Lief 🐋 on January 11, 2010, 05:10:33 am
Chance of Cuomo being the next governor: 99%

Chance of Schumer being the next majority leader= Chance of Reid losing (60%) * Chance of beating out Durbin (50%) = 30%


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: nkpatel1279 on January 11, 2010, 10:46:36 am
It will likely be
Governor Andrew Cuomo
Senate Majority Leader Dick Durbin
Senate Majority Whip Chuck Schumer


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Cory Booker on January 11, 2010, 11:28:39 am
I would support a majority Leader Dick Durbin too.


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Cigarettes & Saints on January 11, 2010, 01:55:36 pm
What percentage of the population knows:

A: Who the Majority Leader is
and
B: What state they are from?

2-4%?

I'm not sure.

I should also throw in a C: Really cares about either.

The idea that someone would vote against Obama and Democrats because both Obama and the Majority Leader are from the same state reminds me of "Dude, I heard that guy Pawlenty is from totally near this state!" (Probably not an exact quote but you get it.) Also Tom DeLay as the de facto House leader 2003-2005 (How many people know who Hastert was?) and for all the troubles the Republicans ended up with, having two people in such high positions from Texas wasn't one of them. Even on DU and whatnot I never heard anyone raving about how Texas was now ruling the rest of the country.


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Lunar on January 11, 2010, 05:41:24 pm
um, I'm not really making any arguments here to rebut.  My inclination as of now is to say that Durbin being from Chicago hurts his odds more than helps it, not because of voters but because of the chattering class of D.C. reporters. 

Hell, how many voters actually knew what a public option is and opposed it?  And you saw how the Democratic caucus sawed out a particularly effective part of the bill.  Reality doesn't really seem to sway the Democratic caucus too much these days.


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Cigarettes & Saints on January 11, 2010, 08:07:00 pm
Durbin isn't from Chicago though anymore than Gillibrand is from New York City.


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Lunar on January 11, 2010, 08:22:59 pm
Regardless, I'm not trying to come up with crazy predictive theories here.  Just noting one potential downside.  I think Durbin will get it over Schumer as of now. 


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: nhmagic on January 11, 2010, 09:28:02 pm
Durbin isn't from Chicago though anymore than Gillibrand is from New York City.
Everyone in that state is involved in the filth from Chicago though - including our own Aaron Schock, which is why I don't trust him at all.  They're grooming him.  That state has the view that God helps those, who help themselves.  Well they all help each other, whether republican or democrat.  Durbin will be majority leader - Im almost sure of it. 


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on February 28, 2010, 05:25:03 pm
Cuomo as Governor. Still, Durbin is closer to be Dem leader.


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Cory Booker on May 08, 2010, 07:00:17 am
Cuomo is going to be the next governor, the Dems will have the majority and unless something changes, Senator Reid will be majority leader. The votes may be split with the tea party candidate and Sue Lowden.


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Eraserhead on May 25, 2010, 12:46:51 am
Cuomo is going to be the next governor, the Dems will have the majority and unless something changes, Senator Reid will be majority leader. The votes may be split with the tea party candidate and Sue Lowden.

That isn't going to be enough to save Reid.


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on May 25, 2010, 12:50:18 am
Cuomo, obviously.


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Bo on May 25, 2010, 12:51:49 am
Cuomo is more likely. Schumer has the potential to face a strong challegne from Durbin, while Cuomo's election is assured.


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Cory Booker on June 02, 2010, 11:46:57 am
The statement above was regarding my wishes to keep the senate seat in Democratic hands even if it is Harry Reid. Reid needs to improve his polls to aroujnd 50% to survive, at any rate we need a new Majority Leader.


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: RIP Robert H Bork on June 24, 2010, 02:09:41 pm
Cuomo is more likely. Schumer has the potential to face a strong challegne from Durbin, while Cuomo's election is assured.

This. In fact, it's actually possible that Reid remains majority leader, assuming he's reelected. And even if he steps down or loses, Majority Leader Schumer isn't a sure thing because of Dick Durbin--in fact, if Reid steps down or loses, I'd actually give Durbin a slight advantage, given his current status as majority whip, as well as being from Illinois.

On the other hand, Cuomo's almost certain to become governor.


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Torie on June 26, 2010, 05:20:12 pm
Cuomo is a near certainty .  I think Durbin will have maybe a 70% at replacing Reid, while I think Reid has probably a 50-70% of losing reelection.  I disagree with the above poster, however, in that i think Obama also coming from Chicago will actually hurt Durbin's chances. 

What people might not get is that while Schumer is valued as a tactician, he is not particularly telegenic and Durbin is really good at what he does even if he's not always the best politician.  I think Schumer would be a far better majority leader, but I'm not sure if I trust the Democratic caucus to respect that.

We'll see. 

You are not implying Lunar are you that you think Durbin is telegenic?  :)


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: cinyc on June 30, 2010, 11:11:26 pm
Regardless, I'm not trying to come up with crazy predictive theories here.  Just noting one potential downside.  I think Durbin will get it over Schumer as of now. 

I don't get how Schumer isn't favored.  Half of the Democrat caucus owe their seats to him, and the other half are Jewish.  Don't tell me that won't play a role in the balloting.

1) Schumer is obnoxious.
2) Schumer + Pelosi would be a very bad face for the Democratic Party - New York City and San Francisco liberals who embody everything people in "flyover country" hate.  Durbin is at least from "flyover country".
3) Reid could still win and keep his current job. (Medium-low probability)
4) Democrats could lose control of the Senate, rendering this debate moot. (Low probability, but possible)
5) Schumer and Durban's religion doesn't really matter.  If it mattered, a Mormon would never be Majority Leader.
6) The only people Senators owe their seat to are the people who voted for them. 


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Lunar on July 01, 2010, 08:09:20 am
Why are people quoting a post from mine in January?  I have retracted the Durbin prediction since then, despite holding onto it way too long. 


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Cory Booker on July 20, 2010, 12:42:27 pm
This should be updated, now Schumer isn't gonna be majority leader anytime soon, Reid likely will stay.


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Bo on August 11, 2010, 04:59:35 pm
This should be updated, now Schumer isn't gonna be majority leader anytime soon, Reid likely will stay.

Even if Red wins (which looks pretty likely right now), he might resign as Majority Leader anyway.


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: emcee0 on April 27, 2015, 01:01:08 pm
Both will lose their elections. Calling it right now.


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: BaconBacon96 on May 22, 2015, 08:44:58 pm
Both will lose their elections. Calling it right now.

Huh? What?


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: NeverAgain on May 31, 2015, 07:50:36 pm
Dick Durbin wins Governor of New York (normal)


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: SWE on June 07, 2015, 09:34:42 pm
Going to guess that was a joke


Title: Re: More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
Post by: Mr. Morden on June 11, 2015, 06:31:31 am
If Cuomo is elected governor (and presumably reelected in 2014), do you think he might make a run for the 2016 Dem. presidential nomination, to take on President Romney (or President Pawlenty)?  He should pick a Southern woman as a running mate, for gender and regional balance.  Perhaps either Sen. Hagan of NC or Sen. Landrieu of LA?