Talk Elections

Conducted by SurveyUSA for Firedoglake, 01/11/2010 – 01/13/2010. Margin of Error: +/- 4.3%

If there were an election of US House of Representatives today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Democrat Vic Snyder and Republican Tim Griffin, who would you vote for?

Tim Griffin (R): 56%
Vic Snyder (D): 39%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

33% Approve
63% Disapprove

http://elections.firedoglake.com/surveyusafiredoglake-poll-ar-02/

FDL is sponsoring polls now?

Yup.  And it looks like they hired one of the best local pollsters in the business - which is good news for us.

wow.

Post-Health Care Vote:

Assume Vic Snyder votes to pass the version of the health care law that DOES require every American to carry private health insurance. If there were an election for US House of Representatives and the only two candidates on the ballot were Democrat Vic Snyder and Republican Tim Griffin, who would you vote for?

Tim Griffin (R): 58%
Vic Snyder (D): 35%

Meh, I've always liked the Kos-sponsored R2k polls, although they weren't especially accurate, you could adjust them a couple points more Republican and they'd usually be pretty good, and the polls were so prolific that it'd be almost unacceptable to ignore them.  What was/is key in my ability to interpret the R2k polls is their consistency, which is fairly solid.

I don't have the numbers in front of my and it's pretty late at night, but SUSA is one of the most erratic pollsters out there, right [ignoring Zogby]?  While that might be better for making news and making business, I'm not the biggest fan in the world of SUSA, and become even more skeptical of them if they're hired by a partisan organization.  I feel that it is in the polling industry's business interests to be erratic and release "surprising" poll results, and I fear that SUSA may have a methodology conducive to that pressure, less so than Zogby of course. 

We'll see.  Arkansas, like West Virginia, is a weird state.  Maybe it'll finally align with its conservative potential.  Snyder also isn't the most passionate politician out there.

Snyder is a weak incumbent, has been for years. In part because he doesn't play the game properly. Still... we should remember that the record of constituency polling is, in every country where it's done, pretty poor. This is an indication that Snyder is in trouble, but not a lot more.

Does anyone know how Snyder is viewed by the Arkansas Democratic establishment? Are they going to help him or just let him hang out to dry?

SUSA has a lot of experience polling hyper-local races, from the recent Atlanta Mayoral Race to Congressional races.  They're usually pretty accurate.  And at least for their media polling, they ALWAYS post cross-tabs - something you usually can't say about Rasmussen, Research 2000 or other non-uni pollsters.

I was actually polled by them once, and they have a little secret in getting a higher response rate - at least in New York, they used the voice of the famous local TV anchor that they are paired up with to ask you to complete the poll.   The caller ID may have used the name of the station as well, which makes people more likely to pick up.  I don't know how that will translate when firedoglake is their client.

I don't have much of a problem with Research 2000's polls - they lean a bit to the Dems, but their polls are usually respectable after slight adjustment. 

Is anyone surprised?

Snyder has been dissing his constituents, and slavishly following orders from Pelosi to vote the hard left wing line.

Its possible he may get reelected if he renounces and repudiates Pelosi and her works.

Way to stay on top of things, CARL.

Snyder is retiring this year.  His seat is open.

Arkansas seems primed for a major flip in the House. From 3-1 Dem. to 3-1 Republican. Pretty amazing when you consider the current state of local politics there.

Unless the Republicans come up with a better candidate in AR-01 (and soon; the filing deadline is in a week or two), it's probably going to end up a Dem hold.