Talk Elections

John Spratt (D): 46%
Mick Mulvaney (R): 39%

John Spratt (D): 46%
Albert Spencer (R): 37%

Do you approve or disapprove of Congressman John Spratt’s job performance ?

41% Approve (2008: Spratt 62%)
42% Disapprove (2008: Spencer 37%)

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's job performance ?

46% Approve (2008: Obama 46%)
49% Disapprove (2008: McCain 53%)

PPP conducted survey of 600 SC-5 voters from January 22nd to 24th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC5_127.pdf

That's a relief.

Under 50%, with a negative approval rating, against two no-name opponents, when he won with 62% last cycle is a relief?

In this environment and from a pollster that usually shows the worst case scenario for Democrats?  I think most Democrats will take this. 

Given the sort of area that this is, given the general environment (and the specific environment in places like this) and given that Spratt came close to defeat in 1994... yeah, I think that Democrats are entitled to be at least a little relieved. But this obviously isn't a safe seat this year (not that we didn't all know that anyway).

It's actually a better result than I was expecting for this district.

Spratt is a '94 survivor in a conservative district, you have to expect that he won't just roll over this time around.

There are a multiplicity of Constitutional Officers up for election this cycle, including open seats for Governor, Lt. Governor, Superintendent of Education, Attorney General, and Adjutant General, plus a replacement Treasurer who hasn't faced a general election for the post, though I believe he is the only declared candidate. (I've seen rumors that the Comptroller General Richard Eckstrom might not seek reelection to a third term, but I don't have any basis to judge them by.)

With five open Statewide offices, and Spratt standing an excellent chance of being redistricted out of office by the 2012 cycle, it's no wonder that the SC-5 race will likely not get a local Republican push.  It may get a push from the national GOP if State Sen. Mulvaney can improve his poll numbers versus Spratt during the primary.

     I don't think anyone expects him to roll over, though he should probably be polling better, considering his prior performance & opponents' lack of name recognition.

Why will Spratt get redistricted out? With the Republicans gaining a seat, the smart thing to do would be to make the new seat safe Republican and keep Spratt's district as similar as possible so they can still win it when he retires.

Oh, right, "smart thing".

Because with the numbers as they are currently projected, it will be possible to draw two minority-majority districts in South Carolina come 2012, and it would require making the gerrymander even worse that it will be to include any part of York County where Spratt lives in either of them.  The "smart thing" will be to ensure Spratt is in as Republican a district as possible so as to avoid Spratt using his incumbency power to win in 2012 and the Democrats picking up the new seat in the 2nd minority-majority district to give the state a 4-3 delegation instead of a 5-2 one.