Talk Elections

Assume that the Bush DUI story is not revealed until after the election. Everything else stays the same. How would this election turn out? Discuss, with maps. Please list the EV, the exact PV, and Bush's victory margin in Florida (both percentagewise and numerically).

()


Bush - 50%  302EV
Gore - 46%  236EV
Nader - 3%
Others - 1%


[Florida]
Bush - 50%
Gore - 47%
Nader - 2%
Others - 1%

Anyone else?

No, Sasquatch's map seems pretty spot on.

Gore would have lost either ME, OR or WI in the map but it would have staid close.

Tell you what a DUI is a learning experience. Bush should have came out with his DUI story in March of that year and not allowed people to forget what his lessons learned were. He should have joined MADD and gotten involved with them somehow. I've gotten a DUI, I've talked to MADD, it is quite an experience to learn from. Had he done that, conservatives who did not vote on election day that year would've seen him as very human and been able to relate to him as a fellow human learning from a mistake. I'm not sure what W was thinking here.

I agree with you here. If the DUI story would have been released sooner, Bush could have responded to it effectively and people would have forgotten about it by election day (similar to how they forgot about Obama attending Reverend Wright's racist church). Thus, Bush Jr. would have won by a larger margin than he did in RL.

Hey, tell me we're finally agreeing on something! That was a big error on Bush's behalf not to use it as a learning experience.

I dont think it changes alot. Maybe a few conservatives stayed home but, not that much. Jeb would  still have "delivered" Florida for his little brother.

Yeah, but Bush Jr. might not have needed FL without the DUI story. He might have won IA, OR, NM, and WI (which together have more EV's than Florida).

I wouldn't have seen 2000 being close and would've predicted a 51-47 victory for Bush with an electoral amount in the mid-lower 300s. While expecting FL to go to him by 5-7. I don't see why FL is close at the presidential level. That state is very conservative internally, has some of the most libertarian laws, and has been run by the GOP in Tallahassee for over a decade. Another thing is if you look at close elections where the GOP loses it still goes to the Republicans. Only when Democrats win in landslides have they carried FL by even small margins.

I just really don't think it made that big of difference really. His cocaine use was pretty common knowledge long before the dui story as well as his wild days in college.

I don't remember him saying he did cocaine.

He never really admitted it , but it was very common knowledge.

Considering that one of the biggest appeals of Bush was that he was a "born again", I agree.

I had a dewey and it sux. lol

Huh?

A DUI?

lol ya dewey sounds alot better than dui

that's what they're called

i took mine all the way to a jury trial

beating a DUI is unheard of

Nah its happened before, i didnt blow on the breat test, and prosecution refused to submit the tape into evidence. My lawyer thought we had a good chance and the hury was out over two hours, i though i was gonna beat it.

What state are you from? In PA it's automatically a year without a license and the same consequences for having a DUI if you refuse to blow or do the testing. The tests though are NOT PERMISSABLE IN COURT other than blood tests and non-portable breathalizers.

Alabama, I lost my license for 90 days

Alabama is a good state for alot of reasons, mainly its conservatism.

Lol yea are democrats here are republicans, and our republicans are nazi's. There more neo-cons instead of conservatives.

I can't tell what party you're in lol. I'd say Alabama is to the right of me.

Bush would pick up Oregon, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Iowa, and Minnesota.

What do you think the PV and Bush's Florida margin would be?

Bush +3 in Florida. Bush wins popular vote 50-46.

Dream on.

PV would be Bush 50-47
EV would be Bush 311-227

lol get real

He should have used it to his advantage as if he learned something and hopefully he did learn something. It is inexcusable for him to leave that in the hands of the media.