Talk Elections

http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2004/10/24/JohnBrummett/306414.html

Real poll - and all tied up
Sunday, Oct 24, 2004

By John Brummett

Maybe you remember that a couple of weeks ago I columnized on the poll of the Arkansas presidential race conducted by Opinion Research Associates in Little Rock for us at the Arkansas News Bureau.

President Bush was up by nine points.

Maybe you ought now to forget that.

We sent Opinion Research back into the field Monday through Wednesday evenings, making 500 calls to likely voters evenly split among the four congressional districts. This is the new report: The presidential race is tied in Arkansas, 48-48.


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My advice to 'Big Dog' Clinton: Great to have you back, help out Kerry in the swing states until Thursday, then park yourself in Arkansas till election day. Clinton knows Arkansas like the back of his hand, if the state is as close as I think it is, he can swing it for Kerry.

I think that is an excellent strategy.  I think Clinton could swing this state.  They should stop wasting his talents in safe Pennsylvania.

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I won't comment until I know the answer to this little question:

How good are "Opinion Research Associates"?

I am not familiar with them, but I think this new poll should be good news if they are at all respectable, because their last poll had Bush up nine points.  AR might be too close to call, and a push might swing it.


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"AR might be too close to call, and a push might swing it."

know any more funny jokes?

if you really believe that arkansas is tied, then you must believe kerry is only up a point in hawaii.  after all, a poll yesterday said so.

you mean you don't believe that Kerry is only up one point in Hawaii??  :)

I said "might".  I never said I believed that it was so.  I only allowed the possibility.

Oh, and I suppose that since you are proposing that they are equivalent that you can produce a previous poll from that Hawaii firm that showed Kerry up ten?  Hmm?  What’s that you say?  You have nothing to validate your analogy?  Well then please shut the hell up.  Thank you.

freedomburns

Like I said, I'd like to see if this firm is any good before I say anything

whoah...i can tell someone is not a morning person.

Sorry, I haven't had my Sunday morning bong hit yet.  I'll be in a better mood shortly...

()

Yeah, like HI - let's see some more polls back it up.

AR hasn't been on the swing states list since... I don't remember. I don't think it suddenly became a swing state overnight.

The Bush swing states are OH, FL, NH, CO, and NV. CO and NV aren't going anywhere, NH is back and forth (up one, down one, up three, down three - but is not as likely to be as big a factor), so it's OH and FL for Bush. That's it, that's why Kerry is spending all of his time there. AR is not close. Just my opinion. Like I don't think HI is close. 

And for Kerry, well, there are a lot of Gore states that are up in the air.

Read the news release.

Big flaw in this poll.

2 brownie points for first person to find it :)

The Congressional District thing? Is turnout unevenly distributed?

The Pennsylvania appearance will be broadcasted to other states, I assume.
But you are right: Clinton to Arkansas NOW!!!

Naw, he is talking about the real news release, not the op ed piece.  I am going over it to find the flaw he is speaking of.  (I gotta have some brownies to go with my bong hits.)

Here is the link to the news release that the Vorlonator is referring to:

http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2004/10/24/News/306451.html

or maybe this one:

http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2004/10/24/News/306446.html


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Here is the flaw:
"Fifty percent identified themselves as Democrats or independent leaning Democrat; 33 percent said they were Republican or independent leaning Republican."

On the other hand, there is also this information to consider in the equation:

"Other Arkansas polls have shown the race to be tightening.

A Zogby International poll by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette on Oct. 14 showed Bush with 46.2 percent, and Kerry with 44.6 percent, a statistical tie.

A Survey USA poll on Oct. 17 showed Bush leading 51 percent to 46 percent, within the margin of error. "


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Given that the poll has Bush down in the 3rd congressional district......a district Bush beat Gore by in 2000 by 23 points, I'd say there's just a teeny tiny little flaw here.

At first glance: OUCH!
At second thought - what's the registration breakup for Arkansas? I'd guess Dems still have a vast advantage in registration there.

Give the man a cigar :)

I more or less agree with your map.
The only reservation I have is that TX should be pink and GA should be red IMHO.

What?  No cash reward?

I'm guessing you're refering to the latest Zogby Interactive polls...

Vorlon's swirling map is a metaphor for what is happening to the country.  Look at the map.  You see it.  The country is leaning toward Bush.  More and more states fall into his camp - even Pennsylvania and New Mexico.  The country swirls down the toilet bowl as we plunge into another four years of a malodorous Bush Administration. 


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ok ? :)

Let's see here...

HI is tied...

At the same time AR is tied...

OH is moving towards Kerry...

MI is moving towards Bush...

...

IT MAKES NO SENSE

The Vorlon, congratulations on being the zen center of the Leip Atlas Forums. :)

Woohoo!

Aside from the party ID issue, blacks were only 10% of the sample.  Weren't they close to double that in the 2000 Arkansas electorate?  If so, an oversampling of white liberals here.

There are white liberals in Arkansas?

Clinton is advising Kerry to play in Arkansas because he knows that Kerry will lose there and hes trying to waste Kerry's time.  We all know that it is in Hil's best interest that John Kerry does not win this election and we also know that Bill definitely wants back into the white house...

Probably more than in any other South Central state, percentagewise that is. But I think John's got a false number.

Good advice.

Personally, I'm glad Clinton's back on the trail in the swing states.

Dave