Talk Elections

I think the field for 2012 is pretty well-known by now, so if Obama is able to be reelected, who would likely run and be viable in 2016?

Scott Brown, John Thune, John Hoeven, Bobby Jindal.

This, plus Sue Lowden, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, and maybe Rand Paul.

Gary Johnson would be unchallenged in the primary on his way to re-election.

lol. I was waiting for someone to say that.

Haha, me too.

If you're going by potential, then yes.

If you're going by viable, I'd count out Lowden, Jindal, probably Paul and perhaps Kasich.

I'd say Brown, Thune, Rubio (assuming he wins), Hoeven, and maybe Bob McDonnell.

I'm not sure Hoeven would want to run; He is up for re-election that year (Along with Thune and Rubio, but they are more likely in my opinion).

What about Jane Norton or Kelly Ayotte?

To think that 6 months ago, Charlie Crist would definately be the top of my list.

No and no.

Tom Campbell (if he wins), Tom Corbett (if he wins), Rand Paul (if he wins), etc. Basically, nobody that is in the field right now.

Scott Brown (if he keeps his seat in 2012), Rand Paul (if he wins), Marco Rubio (if he wins), and always Palin, especially if she's RNC Chair or something (a la Howard Dean in 05). Who knows, really.

Thune, Jeb, Brownback, Mitt, Cantor

The Republican who wins in 2012 is very likely to be renominated, obviously.

Jindal
McDonnell
Pawlenty
Thune
maybe one of the governors to be first elected in 2010, though I don't know who (Walker?  Corbett?)

Of course, Pawlenty depends on how he does in 2012.  Same with Thune, if he decides to run in 2012.

Obviously Tom Delay.  

I doubt Brown would run in 2016, even if he wins a second term. I wouldn't be surprised if he does a governor run at some point. Originally I thought he was running just to get his name out for a gov race.

And non sarcastically, you will have Romney because that is all he knows how to do. He will run, and run, and run, no matter what, and keep changing his persona to fit the bill.

I think George Allen should climb back on the horse.

Scott Walker, Mike Johanns, Tom Corbett, Sam Brownback, Bob McDonnell, Mary Fallin, Scott Brown...

I would think to look at the pool of governors elected this year. We won't know until November, obviously, but I could see Rick Snyder (MI) and Bill Haslam (TN), in particular.

Also, Bob McDonnell and Bobby Jindal. If they don't run or win the nomination in 2012, then Mitch Daniels or John Thune. Maybe Marco Rubio if he wins and forgoes reelection, a la John Edwards in '04.

In no particular order:

Daniels (depending on what happens in 2012)
Thune (depending on what happens in 2012)
Jindal
Rubio (if he beats Crist in November)
McDonnell
Petraeus (depending on how Iraq goes)
John Hoeven
Rand Paul (if the Republicans are still in the Wilderness Phase of the Tea Party)

Allen is too damaged by Macacagate to be a good Presidential candidate and he'd need to return to elected office before running for President. Unfortunately for him, there are no elected offices where he would easily get elected.

That might actually help him in the SC primary and it wouldn't matter in the Iowa primary.  I'm sure he'll win a large percentage of the Jewish vote if he was the presidential candidate since he's half Jewish on his mother's side.

True, though Jews are a very, very small percentage of Republican Primary voters.

I doubt Jewish voters really care about Allen's ancestry, especially considering that he himself isn't Jewish. Also, the South isn't as racist as it used to be (Obama won several states there and Tim Scott, a black Republican, won a GOP primary in SC this year), so his Macaca clip won't help him that much. Allen will be out of office for ten years in 2016. No one will remember him and he will need to find some way to fundraise huge amounts of money, and I don't see him doing that without getting elected to something first. The problem is, what office can he easily get elected to?

Allen is considering a rematch for his old Senate seat in 2012. I think that he could win it with a fair amount of hard work. He COULD win office, but not easily.

Maybe Virginia Governor in 2013? Provided that McDonnell remains popular for all of his term, he could take the Governor's office again. There is no rule against him taking two (or as many as possible) terms nonconsecutively, after all.

I can see him running in every election from 2008-2024. If he lives an extremely long life (as is common with Mormons) you could see him running in the 2030s.

For the Senate, Ken Cuccinelli could also want to run in 2012 and thus Allen might need to beat him in a primary. Same with VA Gov. in 2013--Bill Bolling is going to want that job and McDonnell would probably support him considering that Bolling stepped aside for him in 2009. Thus, if he runs for Senate or Governor, Allen could definitely face a serious primary, not to mention a tough general election campaign. Even if he does manage to return to elected office, a Presidential run would publicize some other baggage that he has (displaying the Confederate flag in college, I believe) and thus his support could easily collapse. I think Allen's glory days are behind him.

If he loses in 2012, Romney probably wouldn't want to spend any more of his money on futile Presidential bids.

Exactly. I said that he could win office, but it won't be easy. His glory days are indeed behind him. Plus the age question always comes 'round.

I'm actually surprised he is not RNC chairman, that would help him win over the evangelical leaders, possibly.

RNC Chairmen typically don't run for President. You can't manage your party and run a Presidential campaign at the same time without doing a bad job.

Are you aware that RNC chairman is only for 2 years?  He could have run against Steele.

GHWB served as chairman before he ran against reagan in 1980

Chris Christie seems to be generating more and more buzz, though there's no way he's going to run in 2012, so maybe 2016?  Of course, it depend on whether he's able to win reelection or not, and whether he wants to potentially cut his second term short for the presidency.  He's young enough that waiting until 2020 is a viable option.

His approval ratings are in the toilet and it would take a miracle for him to win reelection at this point. He would make a fine president, but, sadly, he can't win after being a one-term Governor.

Um, Rasmussen had Chris Christie at 57% approval earlier this month. Not exactly "the toilet".

That's Rasmussen we're talking about, Libertas. Historically, his ratings have been in the 30s and 40s.

Uh, his last job approval number was 45%, no?:

link (http://www.app.com/article/CN/20100921/POLITICS/100921005/NJ-Gov-Christie-s-approval-ratings-dip-a-bit-in-wake-of-lost-education-money)

And there are still three years to go before he faces reelection.  Many many governors have rebounded from worse approval numbers than that.  Governors across the country are unpopular right now, because of the economy.  That isn't necessarily still going to be the case in 2013.

And I wouldn't rule out the possibility of him going the Romney route and stepping down after one term to run for prez in 2016.  I don't think GOP primary voters are going to punish him for that.  Romney paid no price for doing that in 2008.  He lost the nomination to McCain for reasons that were unrelated to his stepping down after one term.

Yeah even that "Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Press Media poll" has his approval at +7 (45-38).

And here's the Rasmussen from September 7 putting him at 57-43. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/new_jersey/57_in_new_jersey_approve_of_governor_s_job_performance)

What was Mitch Daniels's job approval rating in 2005?  42%?  It's now in the high 60s, or something like that.

Closer to 70, yes.

One poll had his approval in the low 30's back early in the year. All of them since have been between 45% and 60% in the last few months.

It got lower then that at one point, I think. SurveyUSA had him, Fletcher and Blunt as the most unpopular Governors after Taft and Murkowski were gone.

I've jumped on the Mitch Daniels 2012 bandwagon
- if he loses, I would want Jindal, Rubio, Chris Christie in 2016.

Those are my three favorite 2016 presidentiables as well.

What about Mike Pence (IN)

Ahhhh the good old days.

I think he might get tapped as VP.

I don't know.  Seems like an odd choice.

3/4!

Very impressive.