Talk Elections

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/05/03/pa-sen_specter_sestak_debate_highlights.html

Yeah, I'd be real excited about getting to vote for either of these guys! I'm glad I don't live in PA...

A charming couple indeed. They should get a room to work out their differences. By the way, Specter used to "win" the Senate staffers poll as the nastiest boss to work for in the Senate.

And by all accounts Sestak has been absolute murder to work for as well.

Time to shudder and support Toomey, looks like. There seems to be a reason he has a substantial lead against both of them.

I think that lead will still be in major jeopardy once this filthy primary wraps up. Toomey seems like a pretty terrible person too. This is just an awful race all the way around.

Hmm, two new polls show Sestak catching up to Specter:

http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2010/05/with-tv-ads-up-pa-senate-race-tightening.html

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/harrisburg_politics/Is_the_Dem_Senate_primary_tightening.html

I would give three dominant factors as to why this is the case:

1) In the heat of a primary, voters tend to over-inflate their unwillingness to vote for a primary rival.  Remember how Hillary's campaign was arguing that Obama wouldn't be able to win?

2) Toomey's been able to avoid a heated primary, and can campaign towards the center.  Remember how he said he would vote to confirm Sotomayor?  (Rubio said he wouldn't)

3) Toomey's been running a really solid, really great campaign. 

Good points. Personally, I'm just dreading the possibility that he might be the second coming of Rick Santorum - a Republican who campaigns as a moderate to get elected, then immediately drives off to the far right afterward.

Either way, I'd find it supremely hilarious if Specter loses this primary after switching parties to avoid losing the other one.

Well, Toomey won't be a surprise, he headed the Club for Growth and would be a far-right Senator very much in the old of Santorum.

And Senator Toomey is the most likely outcome as of now.

The most interesting comment I read on this forum RE: Santorum was that he was very much reflective of the waves he was in.  He was elected in 1994, the big GOP wave, reelected in 2000 with George Bush with mixed results nationally, and thrown out in the Democratic wave of 2006.

People shouldn't forget that Pennsylvania is like the second oldest state in the country after Florida.  That matters in terms of swinginess.  

Ah... memories. Felipe trying to arguing that Santorum wasn't doomed was one of the best things in the history of the forum. The forum without Felipe is a little strange; I almost miss his deranged rants and paranoia.

I actually watched this train wreck. Sestak has to be the biggest pompous ass I have ever seen.

"It's Filippo" - Phil

Not possible in PA, unless Toomey withdraws or dies.

One thing that will damage Spector is the perceived attach on the military.

More new polling is out showing Specter in big trouble. Maybe primary voters haven't cared for his unnecessary attacks on Sestak's military record.


Specter leads Sestak by 8, down from 21 in Quinnipiac's last poll.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1452&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0

Specter leads Sestak by 4 in Muhlenberg, down from 9 in yesterday's poll.
http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2010/05/quinnipiac-and-muhlenberg-polls-show-sestak-closing-in.html

Good to hear

Is there enough time for Sestak to pull this off or is it kinda late?

Well if he's that close now we still got two more weeks.

It would be good.

I actually think Sestak would do better in the General, too.

I thought he was an Admiral?

Yep. Two stars.

"Advértisement!"  "Turrible!"

DSCC is now wasting money trying to save Specter. Ugh.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/05/dscc_investing.php

I'm starting to think this could end up really close.

That was probably the deal that was made when Specter switched, and voted for HCR as part of his side of the bargain, etc.  I have this intuition that Specter is more interested in political survival than ideology. He is a very practical man.

Nah, he was always decidedly left of center for the GOP. And as the GOP has steadily moved further and further right, it was a race between retirement and him leaving the party.

Ya, that is Specter's side of the story I admit. Color me cynical. The ironic thing in any event as to timing, is that the next Senate will have more moderate GOP Senators.

Eh, maybe.  Its hard to say exactly how moderate Hoeven will be.  Castle will be moderate, but Voinovich is leaving.   I don't think Kirk will win when its all set and done.

However, keep in mind the PA Republican electorate became much more conservative.  Specter's strongest base was moderates in suburban Philadelphia.  The Party registration changes in Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware and Chester counties were simply immense.  Specter's old school moderate suburban base simply left the party in droves.  FTR, I am pulling for Sestak and would vote for him if I was in PA.

The last polls have Specter up by 8 points.  When you look back two months and Specter was up by 20 points or more, things start to look really interesting! 

One other thought about Specter switching parties. He himself said it was because he didn't think he could win the GOP primary. He did not mention much about ideology. It was more about his opinion that he thought himself indispensable to remain in office for the good of the public square. He said he would not change his views or votes, including his continued opposition to card check. In reality of course, once he switched, he became a mainstream liberal Dem, and ceased to be a "moderate." 

Ya, I know I am being uncharitable, but Specter does not excite any eleemosynary instincts in me.

Well, I think it should be noted that if I asked 95/100 people here on the campus, they wouldnt even know what a Specter or Sestak was, let alone be preparing to vote, which could be cause for concern for Sestak. Then again, this is the kind of small elitist school where Sestak may not be reaching (it splits about 50/50 in registration).

Sestak is probably the stronger candidate in the general.

Right now, Specter has damaged himself with the attacks on Sestak's military record.  It will probably damage him in the general, if he wins the primary.

Exactly. Don't get me wrong, Torie; I have no doubt that Specter would've stayed a Republican if he thought he would beat Toomey in the primary. But as Smash pointed out his base switched en masse to the Democrats, so why wouldn't he also?

Perhaps it would have been more accurate to say the last 30 years were a race between whether Specter's retirement and the GOP leaving him rather than the other way around. And in 2010 the inevitable rightward march of the Republican Party finally won.

Specter votes in Specter's interest. That's pretty much all you can say about the man.

Is it Pennsylvania or Specter straddling party divides?  

really, this ad is nothing compared to the one Arlen put out against Sestak, that basically accused him of a dishonorable discharge from the military

One of the reasons why this ad is so hard hitting is that it doesn't really deviate from the facts.  Specter broadcasted himself as quite right-wing in his last two primary challenges as a Republican and now he's trying to reframe himself as a liberal.  It's really not thaaat nasty to point that out in explicit terms. 

They are tied in the tracking poll today.

Sestak is now ahead of Specter 44-42 according to the tracking poll:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/05/08/sestak_edges_ahead_of_specter.html

Big question: If Specter loses his primary, how will he vote when there is no more political gain to be had?

Since Charlie Crist is doing well, Specter may bet he should have went independent.

I don't think an Independent has any chance of winning Pennsylvania.

Actually, looking at the numbers, one shouldn't have a very good chance in Florida either.  Florida has no serious base of Independent voters, nor a base of ideologically moderate Independent voters. 

Both Florida and PA have very high Jewish base of voters and they are very independent minded like Lieberman.  I was simply matching who fits best with those independent voters.

I think it is only about 3% of the electorate.  Jews, however, do reasonably well in PA .  Shapp, 1970, 1974, Rendell, 2002, 2006.

In some of Shapp's earlier races, in the 1960's, there was a lot of Antisemitism.

I think you mean "old," as those two states are the two oldest states in the country I believe.

Who are the unions backing? I'd love to see a Democratic machine vs. unions battle.

You're not gonna get it.  AFLCIO is behind Specter.

Disappointing.

I mean, how often do they oppose the White House?  The only state where they dare is Arkansas, where the White House's opinion is decidedly unwelcome on everything but black radio. 

I think one problem is that both candidates are so badly damaged, it will be difficult for either to win.

I think the leads for the GOP in PA,OH,and IL is due to lack of GOP opposition in the primary more than anything else and the Dems having had to fend off the primary challenger.  The RNC did a very good job of getting the GOP to unite behind one candidate.

I think it will be more likely for the Dems to split the Gov race and Senate race in all three states than the GOP sweeping both offices.

I know it's a fool's errand to ask, but can you explain to us why Sestak is "damaged"?

Because he's the Democrat.

Naw, Toomey isn't like Santorum. He's more conservative.

Specter's negative ads.  A lot of solid Democratic supporters lining up behind Specter; it is not impossible to heal that, but it can leave wounds.

Then I guess that Rand Paul, Trey Grayson, Marco Rubio and Tom Campbell are damaged too and can't win their respective races.

A lot of primary attack ads don't really hold much weight in the general anyway... "Tom Campbell, too liberal for California."

Mmhmm.

Do any of them have these close (and volatile) election?

The AFL-CIO has historically been run by boot-licking cowards (like since the 1910s at least), so it's hardly a surprise that they refuse to challenge Obama.

What lead in Ohio??  Fisher has led the last three polls and four of the last five.

Come on, just keep telling the Republicans that their 70 seat gain in the House and 10 seat gain in the Senate are inevitable.

Sestak is now leading by 4% in the tracking poll.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/05/09/sestak_edges_further_ahead_over_specter.html

Speaking of which, when is the primary date?

18th.

I'm hoping Sestak wins the primary.

I'm hoping Specter wins, because I want the seat to go Republican.

I'm hoping Sestak wins and still loses the general, just to slap the liberals here in the face :P

Well, I want that too. but I really want Specter to lose.

Because Sestak is such a leftie...

He is actually to the left of Specter.  In terms of biography, he is a great candidate for PA.  In terms of policy, he's to the left of just about any non-Phila PA politician.

New Rasmussen poll has Sestak up by 5%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/pennsylvania/2010_senate_election/election_2010_pennsylvania_democratic_primary_for_senate

The tracking poll also has Sestak up by 5% today.
http://blogs.mcall.com/capitol_ideas/2010/05/sestak-up-by-5.html

I'd love to see a new Quinnipiac poll.

LOL at Specter managing to get purged from both parties within a single congressional term.

Wow. That is true.

Never really happened before. I suppose you got Michael Forbes but he wasn't really "purged" from the GOP and would've been reelected as a Republican. Parker Griffith might have it happen too, but he wasn't targeted by Democrats either.

What has Sestak been doing that has made him grab all the momentum these past few days? Is it just that ad of Specter as a Republican?

That more than likely has a major part in it. In a place like Pennsylvania, tying a candidate to a man like W. is an effective shot, but it's even more crippling whenever indisputable proof is given of his alliances.

As in, ?

Those posts were made almost 7 minutes apart!  HOW AM I SUPPOSED TO KEEP TRACK OF THAT?

I think there's been a misunderstanding.

There is also a new Rasmussen poll out that shows Toomey and Sestak tied in the general while Toomey leads Specter by double digits. Any Democrat who votes for Specter in the primary at this point needs their head checked.

I'll be damn happy to see Joe show Specter the door, and I won't shed a tear if he wins the general, either. I don't care how much of a hardass Sestak is, or how comparatively liberal he is; better him than Benedict Arlen or Pat "Santorum Mk2" Toomey.

I bet I know what Phil is thinking now. I'd like to see his face on election night, no matter what the results are.

Specter also ran that "Sestak the lousy sailor" ad, that backfired royally.

And Sestak's saved all his money for a massive ad buy in the last two weeks of the campaign.

And that certainly didn't hurt either.  What started the collapse was the Specter ad.


That is what I've been saying.  Sestak is much more formidable in the general.

I'd like to see Specter win largely because he will be much weaker against Toomey.

Obama's commercial for Specter starts running tomorrow, according local Phila news.

So far, he's not really had a good track record of campaigning for candidates in time. Otherwise, Coakley might have had more of a chance back in January...

Good news. I hope Sestak wins. He is the only one who can defeat Toomey.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/05/the-night-beat-navy-in-the-crosshairs-health-care-progress-report/56477/

Obama will NOT be campaigning for Specter; earlier in the week it looked like he might. TV ad is TBD.

Has the DSCC stopped pissing away money here (and Nebraska)?

lolz

First competent decision the President's made in months. He's just sank Specter's boat.

I know, Obama doing something competent is shocking.

As an active duty staff member and not having a horse in this race, I will happily say that the Department of the Navy as a whole was glad to see Sestak go.  Dem operatives in Philly will gladly concur with what was common knowledge on the waterfront; he's a major league A-hole.  I won't pick on his politics because I know and love many on the Left.  Personally, though, he's a prick, but then again, so is Specter.

Hard for me to cry if either goes down in flames.

And then against asshole Toomey, only one asshole will be left standing.

How about Specter's other buddies, Rendell and Casey?
Will they campaign for him or are they too running away from the stench of defeat?

I don't really mind Obama supporting Specter; if not for Specter and his party switch, it's pretty clear that healthcare reform wouldn't have been passed. Obama and the Democratic Party owe the guy.

Well, with Specter, fwiw, Obama needs his vote badly for the rest of the year

Agreed, but it could help in a Democratic primary.  Specter has the habit of being sneaky.

Specter voted against Kagan for Solicitor General, now he's lean approve for Supreme Court?  Sestak is having a field day with this.

Just saw part of the commercial with Obama.  Biden is coming to help.  ::)

There is some speculation that Obama might be making a personal appearance.

I understand why Obama is doing what he's here but it doesn't make me any less pissed off at him.

Sestak's lead shrinks a point today. (47%-43%)

Obama=Doing more to help the Republicans win in Pennsylvania than Pat Toomey ever could........

I'm not disagreeing.

I don't think it is over, and I think it will be a photo finish.

Obama needs to pick his battles more wisely...

Like not trying to personally destroy his own party, seat by seat? Yeah, that would indeed be a little more wise.

I know, just commenting on Obama's cerebral stupidity.

Hahaha, Obama just posted a stumping for Specter on Facebook and he is getting trashed in the comments section. I know it doesnt mean a darn thing, but it made me giggle. :)

Another poll coming out tomorrow, this time from Franklin and Marshall. It will apparently show Sestak "ahead by around five points" not unlike the other recent ones.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/05/why_sestak_might_really_pull_i.html

()
F&M PRIDE WOOOOOO!!!!!!!!

*ahem*......Im done.

New Quinnipiac poll in the morning too!

F & M polling is one of the better ones for PA.

Specter has started the Obama ad.

Specter +2 in Quinnipiac, down from +8 last week.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/05/12/too_close_to_call_in_pennsylvania.html

For what it's worth...Intrade has Specter winning the primary at 20.0 right now.

And in the last month......it's been a near avalance in falling poll numbers.

My question is, has Specter plugged the gap with the Obama commercial.

F & M came out with Specter 38 Sestak 29, 7.9 MOE.

http://www.centredaily.com/2010/05/12/1971775/polls-specter-sestak-race-too.html

Keep in mind that F&M is one of the worst pollsters in America.

WRONG. The numbers for F & M are Sestak 38 Specter 36. The numbers you posted are for ALL REGISTERED DEMOCRATS. I think it's safe to say that all registered Democrats will not be heading to the polls for this primary.

Textbook example of J. J. dishonesty (even ignoring the fact that F&M is a garbage uni poll anyway.)

Also, the tracking poll is tied again today.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/Muhlenberg0511.pdf

Considering he provied the link, he can't be "dishonest".......I think he just misread or just didn't caveat that it was registerd dems vs. likely dems.

Yes, I'd seen 38-29 cited as a headline number elsewhere, too.

My couple of observations of reality for Sestak supporters:

1) Momentum (I'm a little concerned that Sestak is peaking too early, fwiw)
2) Sealing the deal (A certain bit of the big movement will stick, more likely than not it would have happened anyway, but the polling says that Sestak's "made the offer".  Over the next few days, we'll know whether he can close the deal.  Recently, think of this as similar to what happened in Britain.)

Yeah it's an honest mistake.

The problem I can't get around is that these two candidates were not created equal. Specter is both the incumbent and one who was an opponent of the Democrats for 30+ years. Sestak is doctrinally sound and not well-known enough to have earned real enemies. Specter is relying on the votes of hundreds of thousands of people who voted against him in 2004. It's hard for me to see how he pulls it out. Speaking as a Democrat, there are precious few ways I could imagine Specter having "sealed the deal" with me or other Democrats when the only rationale, his comparative electability, has been seriously called into question.

To sum it up, Specter's win is dependent on people who:

1) have heard of Sestak's being the boss from hell (very small number) and/or think he'll blow it in the general election (somewhat larger)
2) think Specter is the only Democrat who can win, and that he has a good shot of it (started off as a huge percentage of Democrats, but that has been melting away)
3) are so loyal to their machine that they will vote the way they are told in a primary, even in the privacy of the voting booth, and forgetting Specter's past actions
4) are so loyal to Obama and sufficiently unopinionated about Specter that they will act on his half-hearted endorsement
5) are extremely grateful for Specter's last year of Democratic partisanship while forgetting or forgiving what preceded it
6) don't know or don't care that Specter is unlikable himself

People fit one or some of those categories, not necessarily all.

Needless to say #2 IMO is the biggest factor of all and the one that I wish we could isolate now. Specter's burn rate of "cynical support" is the deciding factor. #1 would be my concern as a voter, but as of now, outweighed by #2.

Brilliant observation, of course.  My best guess, brittain........Specter brings home the bacon and people want their fill of bacon.   I can see him pulling out the primary.......but God I hope not.

What I'm most afraid of is the old people breaking for Specter.

"Too early"? Sestak just pulled ahead or even in most polls within the last week, and the primary's only 6 days away.

Yeah the local talking heads are saying he's just peaking now and momentum is on his side.

That is what the story says, and it didn't qualify the other numbers; it is well within the MOE.  Quinniac, your favorite pollster, put him ahead in the same story.

Actually F & M is one of the better pollsters from PA.

The story didn't caveat it:

The Franklin & Marshall poll shows Sestak with 38 percent and Specter with 36 percent. The sampling error margin was plus or minus 7.9 percentage points. One in four were undecided. Telephone surveys were conducted May 3 through Sunday.

In Franklin & Marshall's broader survey of registered Democrats, Specter had a slight lead, 38 percent to 29 percent, with a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Read more: http://www.centredaily.com/2010/05/12/1971775/polls-specter-sestak-race-too.html#ixzz0nkVWTfOX


You must be in panic mode, BRTD.

It looks close, and, Spade's observation may be correct.  The Obama commercial probably put a dent into any momentum, if not stopping or reversing it. 

For Democrats that are a bit bipartisan, they just got an image of Specter being supported by GWB and BHO.  For BHO supporters, the just got the image of BHO supporting Specter.

Allow me to translate the post above for people not yet familiar with JJ:
Spin spin spin, spin spin spin. Spin spin and spin spin. Spin Spin.

No, quoting the newspaper article, which was linked in the post.

But now let me translate, Sestak supporters who are panicked by the result.

It is going to be a close race.

Regarding Brittain33's comment number 2 about Specter about some thinking he is only the candidate that can win, how could one believe that when the polls now show him running far weaker against Toomey than Sestak is at the moment?  Thanks.

Most people have literally no idea that Sestak is running better against Toomey than Specter in the polls.

I highly doubt that most PA Democrats now each poll and what it says while walking into the booth.

Indeed, as I've said countless times, competitive primaries really screw up general election polling as, in the heat of the primary, staunch supporters of one candidate always claim that they could NEVER back the other candidate, which isn't usually quite the case.

The question, however, is who is more likely to win back the support of the entire Democratic coalition?  Which candidate, Specter or Sestak, will be able to turn out voters that the other one wouldn't?  Which candidate, Specter or Sestak, is best able to appeal to moderate Democrats who supported the other, but are torn between Toomey and them?  Does Specter's biography as a senior, as a moderate Republican, as someone connected to the Democratic machine, matter more, or does Sestak's biography as a consistent progressive, as a military veteran, do more for appeal?

I pay very little attention to GE polling during competitive primaries - totally agree on that front.

Remember Bill Clinton calling Bill Richardson on the phone in 2008, right before Richardson was to endorse Obama, seriously telling him that Obama "couldn't win!"    ?  Rustbelt Dems, it was claimed, were proven by polling that they could never support Obama.  Obama "couldn't win" states like, well, Pennsylvania.  

Someplace there was polling on that.  It was basically a "Who do you think can win the general election" question.  Specter "won" that poll.  I think 29% thought that Sestak could win.

I don't agree; I've said from the start that Sestak is the stronger general election candidate.  The perception might be that Sestak is weaker. 

Not to mention Specter's much better known and his opposition is much more "solid" then Sestak's. Sestak conversely has a much better chance to expand his numbers.

Solid new Sestak ad out, really puts Sestak in a good light, pushes his own creds (as opposed to just trashing Arlen), and publicizes the recent polling shift, trying to snag bandwagon momentum. Good enough to counter Obama ad?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94t0VPh_paY&feature=player_embedded

Apparently the Specter campaign is getting really desperate, they are crying foul on the use of public pictures of the Senator because he was in chemo at the time:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/13/specter-chemo-photo-in-se_n_575322.html

Dumb and petty complaint from Specter. You can barely see their faces; the ad used tiny pictures.

I disagree, I think he's right on the substance and would be offended, but there's no way he can effectively get anyone to care about it.

Sestak should've used a different picture. There are lots of other crummy photos of Specter in which he looks evil.

Classic Specter.

A small negative for Sestak (after a run of brilliant successes).

I think they wanted a bald picture because bald people look more Republican

Sestak 40, Toomey 42.

Specter retakes the lead in the tracking poll (by 2%).

There is also supposed to be a Research 2000 poll out today showing Sestak leading by 2%.

Talk about too close for comfort.

You mean Specter right, wrt the Muhlenberg thingy?

Ah, yes. Sorry.

Translation:  SpinSpinSpinSpin.

Or turnabout is fair play.

Phila Black Clergy just endorsed Specter.

WTF?

The difference is that I just typed the incorrect name and then fixed it while you specifically tore misleading numbers out of an article to fit your agenda.

You're an idiot.

No, just pointing out the utter hypocrisy of Erasurehead and apparently of you.

GTFO.

Unlike me, who posted it correctly, with a link. ::)

Quit while you're behind, will ya?

Continue your hypocrisy.


I put down the right numbers, with a link.  Then when someone questioned it, I posted the quote.  You called it "spin."

You put down the wrong numbers, without a link; someone else caught it.  I honestly think you made an honest mistake, but, judging it by your standard, you must be a "hypocritical hyperhack," petrified that Sestak will be crushed.

I actually think it close, and won't call it yet.  My only guess is Sestak's momentum has halted (and it may have halted above 50%).

Stop picking on J. J., he's in Mensa!

Non sequitur, and you obviously don't have to worry about that.

You're right J. J., only intellectual powerhouses get into Mensa! As demonstrated by your inclusion!

I hope your remarkable streak of your incredibly accurate election predictions in PA continues this week.

In Muhlenberg today, Specter is up just one now, 44-43. As a side note, Tony Williams' attack ads continue to prove rather ineffective as he gains ever so slightly in the Governor polling, in second place but trailing Onorato 38-14.

What prediction?  A close race?

If you are predicting a landslide for either candidate, please post it.

I will say this, Setak is leading in signs.  I saw a grant total of two to Specter's zero.  This was in West, Southwest and North Phila.  This includes the Penn Camous (I think today is graduation).

I was in Williams Senate District, and saw several signs for him.  Around Penn, I saw one for Hoffel.

I have had some mailings for the GOP state committee surprisingly.

Here in the Berks area I have seen about 5-6 Sestak signs to 1 Specter, so its all Sestak sign-wise here too.

Good Christ, man. You are something else.

The final tracking poll is a tie. 44%-44%. Here's a link so JJ knows I'm not lying:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/Muhlenberg0516.pdf

They're not doing one tomorrow?

Nor was I when I said this would be close.

Apparently not.