Title: Spanish Elections Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 14, 2004, 05:58:27 AM Legislative elections in Spain are held today... just days after the worst atrocity in Spain since the Civil War.
IMO it's the most up-in-the-air election I've ever seen. With an extremly high turnout and a lot of people who don't normally vote, voting it's too close to call right now. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: minionofmidas on March 14, 2004, 06:34:03 AM Spanish Democracy is not on the ballot and will therefore fail to win even a single seat. :)
Much as I hope for a victory of the Left, the only thing I ask myself is whether the PP will retain its absolute majority. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 14, 2004, 06:37:29 AM Spanish Democracy is not on the ballot and will therefore fail to win even a single seat. :) You know what I mean... Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: minionofmidas on March 14, 2004, 07:04:31 AM No.
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 14, 2004, 07:08:38 AM I mean that there will be a very high turnout in protest at the terrorist attacks.
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Canadian observer on March 14, 2004, 02:29:35 PM At what time (Spanish Time Zone) do the results start coming in ?
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 14, 2004, 02:40:56 PM 0800 GMT
0900 Spanish time Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Canadian observer on March 14, 2004, 02:44:57 PM 0800 GMT 0900 Spanish time Thanks. Do you know a website (from a written or TV media, or something else) that's going to present the upcoming results live. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 14, 2004, 02:58:06 PM Exit polls have the PSOE and the PP neck and neck (http://news.bbc.co.uk (http://news.bbc.co.uk))
I think that most Spanish newspapers have the results as they come in: www.onlinenewspapers.com (http://www.onlinenewspapers.com) Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Canadian observer on March 14, 2004, 03:06:41 PM I've found a site.
http://www.elec_gen04.mir.es/congreso/CGF_TOP.htm Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 14, 2004, 03:07:40 PM Exit polls:
TVE/RNE PSOE 41.4% PP 36.9% A3/O.Cero PSOE 41% PP 38.5% TELE 5 PP 40.6% PSOE 38.3% Pulsometro PSOE 40.5% PP 39.5% Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Gustaf on March 14, 2004, 03:17:19 PM That's sad. :(
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on March 14, 2004, 03:29:43 PM Maybe its just counting a pro-socialist area... there is still hope!
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Gustaf on March 14, 2004, 03:34:16 PM I guess so...
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Canadian observer on March 14, 2004, 03:35:13 PM Updated : Partial Election Results of the major parties
Poll counted : 48.39% PSOE: 43.5% (160 seats) PP: 36.6% (140 seats) CiU: 3.1% (10 seats) ERC: 2.5% (8 seats) EAJ-PNV: 2.2% (7 seats) IU: 5.1% (5 seats) Other parties: (5 seats) Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on March 14, 2004, 03:39:08 PM Ok.. lets hope the other 50% is in Spanish Utah :)
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Gustaf on March 14, 2004, 03:41:32 PM Ok.. lets hope the other 50% is in Spanish Utah :) Lol, taht's likely. My dad told me once that previously in Sweden, for some reason, they would always start off with Northern rural districts in the counting, which meant that the Communists were always at 20, 30, 40% in the initial results scaring the SH*T out of everyone. :) Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: afleitch on March 14, 2004, 03:44:47 PM Congratulations to the PSOE. I admired Aznar, but not his chosen successor. After the European left lost Greece, its good to see them regain Spain!
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Canadian observer on March 14, 2004, 03:45:34 PM Updated : Partial Election Results of the major parties
Poll counted : 56.33% PSOE: 43.3% (163 seats) PP: 36.5% (146 seats) CiU: 3.4% (10 seats) ERC: 2.7% (8 seats) EAJ-PNV: 2.2% (7 seats) IU: 5.1% (5 seats) Other parties: (5 seats) Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2004, 03:47:53 PM I'm very happy. But it isn't finish. There is still 44% of votes. Wait and see...
PSOE: 6218354 43,32% PP: 5234807 36,47% 56% of votes Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 14, 2004, 03:49:08 PM It's not over yet, but right now it *looks* as if the PSOE will win...
If the polls counted were mostly in the South (a PSOE stronghold), then the PP might be able to sneak it. If not the PSOE has won. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Huckleberry Finn on March 14, 2004, 03:50:39 PM Really sad. Socialists are going to win.
It would be HUGE mistake to withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq!!! It would encourage new attacks in other European countries! Osama bin Laden: "It worked in Spain. Let's try in Italy, Britain, Denmark, Poland, Hungary" Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Canadian observer on March 14, 2004, 03:50:48 PM Updated : Partial Election Results of the major parties
Poll counted : 61.21% PSOE: 43.4% (165 seats) PP: 36.8% (144 seats) CiU: 3.3% (10 seats) ERC: 2.6% (8 seats) EAJ-PNV: 2.0% (7 seats) IU: 5.1% (5 seats) Other parties: (5 seats) Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2004, 03:50:51 PM It's very fast...
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2004, 03:51:54 PM And exit-polls were wrong... It's a great failure for PP
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Gustaf on March 14, 2004, 03:52:40 PM Really sad. Socialists are going to win. It would be HUGE mistake to withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq!!! It would encourage new attacks in other European countries! Osama bin Laden: "It worked in Spain. Let's try in Italy, Britain, Denmark, Poland, Hungary" Exactly. But not even Spanish socialists can be so stupid as to not see that, right? Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2004, 03:54:24 PM It was stupid to send troops in Iraq. It's stupid to retire them.
After aznar, I want see Blair and berlusconi out! Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Huckleberry Finn on March 14, 2004, 03:55:20 PM Really sad. Socialists are going to win. It would be HUGE mistake to withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq!!! It would encourage new attacks in other European countries! Osama bin Laden: "It worked in Spain. Let's try in Italy, Britain, Denmark, Poland, Hungary" Exactly. But not even Spanish socialists can be so stupid as to not see that, right? Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Canadian observer on March 14, 2004, 03:55:49 PM Updated : Partial Election Results of the major parties
Poll counted : 68.46% PSOE: 43.3% (165 seats) PP: 36.8% (146 seats) CiU: 3.4% (10 seats) ERC: 2.7% (8 seats) EAJ-PNV: 1.9% (7 seats) IU: 5.1% (5 seats) CC: 0.1% (4 seats) Other parties: (5 seats) Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 14, 2004, 03:57:05 PM The PSOE have said they will pull out in a few months or so (I think). Not immediatly.
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Gustaf on March 14, 2004, 03:58:34 PM It was stupid to send troops in Iraq. It's stupid to retire them. After aznar, I want see Blair and berlusconi out! Why Blair? Who would replace him? And it wasn't 'stupid', it was siding with Western democracy. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Canadian observer on March 14, 2004, 04:00:48 PM Updated : Partial Election Results for the major parties
Poll counted : 76.82% PSOE: 43.1% (165 seats) PP: 37.1% (146 seats) CiU: 3.4% (10 seats) ERC: 2.7% (8 seats) EAJ-PNV: 1.8% (7 seats) IU: 5.1% (5 seats) CC: 0.1% (4 seats) Other parties: (5 seats) Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2004, 04:03:13 PM Mister Gordon Brown... I hate Blair, not the labour party. And it was against public opinion to send troops in iraq thus I think that Aznar, Blair, Berlusconi must lose elections. As Bush...
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2004, 04:05:47 PM Updated : Partial Election Results for the major parties Poll counted : 76.82% PSOE: 43.1% (165 seats) PP: 37.1% (146 seats) CiU: 3.4% (10 seats) ERC: 2.7% (8 seats) EAJ-PNV: 1.8% (7 seats) IU: 5.1% (5 seats) CC: 0.1% (4 seats) Other parties: (5 seats) You are very fast... Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Gustaf on March 14, 2004, 04:06:53 PM Mister Gordon Brown... I hate Blair, not the labour party. And it was against public opinion to send troops in iraq thus I think that Aznar, Blair, Berlusconi must lose elections. As Bush... Sometimes the public opinion isn't right. And people don't vote on that issue alone, but on many others as well. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 14, 2004, 04:07:48 PM Mister Gordon Brown... I hate Blair, not the labour party. And it was against public opinion to send troops in iraq thus I think that Aznar, Blair, Berlusconi must lose elections. As Bush... Well Aznar was retiring anyway... the PP's candidate was Rajoy. Over here, our electoral system means that Blair literally cannot lose. BTW public opinion swung behind the war after the whole UN shenanigans (=brits don't like Chirac). Not in Spain though... Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Canadian observer on March 14, 2004, 04:08:10 PM Updated : Partial Election Results for the major parties Poll counted : 76.82% PSOE: 43.1% (165 seats) PP: 37.1% (146 seats) CiU: 3.4% (10 seats) ERC: 2.7% (8 seats) EAJ-PNV: 1.8% (7 seats) IU: 5.1% (5 seats) CC: 0.1% (4 seats) Other parties: (5 seats) You are very fast... I take the results from this webpage http://www.elec_gen04.mir.es/congreso/CGF_TOP.htm Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Canadian observer on March 14, 2004, 04:10:14 PM Updated : Partial Election Results for the major parties
Poll counted : 83.04% PSOE: 43.0% (164 seats) PP: 37.3% (148 seats) CiU: 3.4% (10 seats) ERC: 2.7% (8 seats) EAJ-PNV: 1.8% (7 seats) IU: 5.1% (5 seats) CC: 0.2% (3 seats) Other parties: (5 seats) Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2004, 04:14:41 PM Mister Gordon Brown... I hate Blair, not the labour party. And it was against public opinion to send troops in iraq thus I think that Aznar, Blair, Berlusconi must lose elections. As Bush... Well Aznar was retiring anyway... the PP's candidate was Rajoy. Over here, our electoral system means that Blair literally cannot lose. BTW public opinion swung behind the war after the whole UN shenanigans (=brits don't like Chirac). Not in Spain though... Yes I know... But it's a vote against Aznar and his lies, not against Rajoy. And Tony Blair can lose elections no? He is very unpopular with his lies and conservative can win... (I don't like conservative party but it's better than Blair). and Brits didn't want the war but they are patriots and give a support to british troops. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2004, 04:18:27 PM Mister Gordon Brown... I hate Blair, not the labour party. And it was against public opinion to send troops in iraq thus I think that Aznar, Blair, Berlusconi must lose elections. As Bush... Sometimes the public opinion isn't right. lol but I don't like leaders who lies and give bad informations to the public opinion. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Gustaf on March 14, 2004, 04:21:04 PM Mister Gordon Brown... I hate Blair, not the labour party. And it was against public opinion to send troops in iraq thus I think that Aznar, Blair, Berlusconi must lose elections. As Bush... Well Aznar was retiring anyway... the PP's candidate was Rajoy. Over here, our electoral system means that Blair literally cannot lose. BTW public opinion swung behind the war after the whole UN shenanigans (=brits don't like Chirac). Not in Spain though... Yes I know... But it's a vote against Aznar and his lies, not against Rajoy. And Tony Blair can lose elections no? He is very unpopular with his lies and conservative can win... (I don't like conservative party but it's better than Blair). and Brits didn't want the war but they are patriots and give a support to british troops. The Consrevatives supported the war just as much as Blair. They certainly won't gain votes from that. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 14, 2004, 04:25:15 PM And Tony Blair can lose elections no? He is very unpopular with his lies and conservative can win... (I don't like conservative party but it's better than Blair). and Brits didn't want the war but they are patriots and give a support to british troops. Our electoral system is FPTP. The Tories need the biggest swing since 1931 to win a majority of 1. Blair is very unpopular with the metropolitan elite. But he is still popular in working class areas (which were strongly pro-war). As for lies... I doubt he would dare tell bare faced lies (he's distorted the truth before, but not lied). As for the Tories... d'yi know who Newt Gingrich is? Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2004, 04:31:48 PM it's possible... look at Spain (I know, itisn't th british system but a party who has a great majority can lose th next elections) ... If a poll gives a advantage for conservative, conservative wins. I don't like conservative but I prefer a conservative win to a blair win. Solution: Gordon Brown took the party now! I hoe that libdems will win but is it possible? I don't know.
I dislike Newt Gringrich. Stupid guy (as...) PS: FPTP: first past the post. I know this system. It is not a good system. And sometimes, it is not the party who has the most votes who wins. I prefer germany system or Belgium system. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Gustaf on March 14, 2004, 04:36:48 PM it's possible... look at Spain (I know, itisn't th british system but a party who has a great majority can lose th next elections) ... If a poll gives a advantage for conservative, conservative wins. I don't like conservative but I prefer a conservative win to a blair win. Solution: Gordon Brown took the party now! I hoe that libdems will win but is it possible? I don't know. I dislike Newt Gringrich. Stupid guy (as...) The LibDems have very little off a chance. Blair will probably win until he quits or is overthrown by his own party. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2004, 04:40:20 PM Still a thing: where is the conservative revolution? in your *ss...;)
Goodnight and see your tomorrow! Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Gustaf on March 14, 2004, 04:41:38 PM Still a thing: where is the conservative revolution? in your *ss...;) Goodnight and see your tomorrow! WHat? ??? Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 14, 2004, 04:43:20 PM it's possible... look at Spain (I know, itisn't th british system but a party who has a great majority can lose th next elections) ... Spain has a form of Proportional Representation. We don't. The U.K system works like this [all names are fictional] Llareggub East Dai Jones Lab 60% Huw Jones PC 20% John Jones Con 10% Jane Jones LD 10% ---Lab Hold--- There are about 650 seats (can't remember exact number). Whoever wins the most individual contests, wins the election. Quote If a poll gives a advantage for conservative, conservative wins. Doesn't work like that (see above) Quote I don't like conservative but I prefer a conservative win to a blair win! Howard is a class A hypocrite (anti-immigrant rhetoric+son of Romanian immigrants=jerk) and his domestic policies have a distinctly Newtish flavour Quote I hope that libdems will win but is it possible? I don't know. Nope (see above) Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 14, 2004, 04:46:56 PM The PSOE has claimed victory
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Gustaf on March 14, 2004, 04:49:07 PM The PSOE has claimed victory And Europe fails yet again to rise to the occasion... :( Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: agcatter on March 14, 2004, 04:52:13 PM Dry run by Al Quida on the eve of an election to see if they can punish a government they want out. Now that they have their result expect an attack on the U S a week or so before our November election. That will be a bad miscalculation on their part. We're not a bunch of cowering Euros. Same strategy is liable to produce a much different result than they are hoping for.
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Canadian observer on March 14, 2004, 04:55:25 PM Updated : Partial Election Results for the major parties
Poll counted : 96.32% PSOE: 42.7% (163 seats) PP: 37.7% (148 seats) CiU: 3.2% (11 seats) ERC: 2.5% (8 seats) EAJ-PNV: 1.7% (7 seats) IU: 5.0% (5 seats) CC: 0.7% (3 seats) Other parties: (5 seats) Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Gustaf on March 14, 2004, 05:01:20 PM Dry run by Al Quida on the eve of an election to see if they can punish a government they want out. Now that they have their result expect an attack on the U S a week or so before our November election. That will be a bad miscalculation on their part. We're not a bunch of cowering Euros. Same strategy is liable to produce a much different result than they are hoping for. I think 'cowering euros' is raking it a little too far. Spain doesn't have the kind of emotional tie to the Iraq War that the US has. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: agcatter on March 14, 2004, 05:07:44 PM Maybe. But attacking the U.S. in the same way on the eve of our election will get Kerry buried on election day.
You said it yourself. "Europe fails yet again to rise to the occasion". Expect more, not less attacks on Europe as a result. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Gustaf on March 14, 2004, 05:14:29 PM Maybe. But attacking the U.S. in the same way on the eve of our election will get Kerry buried on election day. You said it yourself. "Europe fails yet again to rise to the occasion". Expect more, not less attacks on Europe as a result. Yes, it probably would, but that's b/c you feel part of the war in a way that the Spanish people never did. In fact, they have lvien under fascist rule and with Baskian terrorism for decades. And I also don't think it's correct to lump all Europeans into the same group. But I agree that it's a stpid decision and that it's giving in to the terrorists. And there might be more attacks, but I'm not sure against which countries. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Canadian observer on March 14, 2004, 05:24:36 PM Maybe. But attacking the U.S. in the same way on the eve of our election will get Kerry buried on election day. You said it yourself. "Europe fails yet again to rise to the occasion". Expect more, not less attacks on Europe as a result. The loss of Aznar's PP might not fall on deaf ears among Al Qaida members. It's going to look like a reward for the terrorist group, even more so when the next PSOE government will, as they planned, withdraw the Spanish troops from Iraq. I think the PSOE government, by agreeing to such move, will please the Islamist terrorists more than garantee security for Spain and the rest of Europe. The idea that the latest Madrid attacks are solely due to the policy of Aznar regarding Iraq was a tool that surely helped the Spanish Socialist. However, we must keep in mind that Al Qaida uses every reason as it sees fit to attack in any place in the world. For instance, a video considered to be from the terrorist organization threatened Canada for its participation in the Afghanistan anti-terrorist mission, even though Canada had not officially participate in the last Iraq war. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Ben. on March 14, 2004, 06:12:28 PM I think your all underrating the Spanish here…this is not a victory for Al Quida, to them it does not matter who is in power any where they are still their enemies…the Spanish voted in the socialist not because they where some pacifistic political party that had argued against the war on terror their a fairly moderate party who opposed the war in Iraq it is true but then so did most Spaniards and most Europeans…Spain is not in the habit of giving in to terrorism witness the manner in which they have resisted the attempts by the Basque separatist ETA who have fought for nearly thirty years to create an independent Basque nation and yet very little ground has been given to these terrorist….Spain has not given in to terrorism they have booted out a government which did something the majority of Spaniards disagreed with and as a result of that action they made Spain a target for global terrorism…ultimately Spain voted out the popular party because they did not want to go to war in Iraq and they where right to oppose that war…further more the large turnout (well over 60%) was seen by many as an act of defiance to the terrorists showing that Spain would not be intimidated nor allow the rights and liberties that the terrorist despise to be circumvented… Aznar’s actions have caught up with him he took part in a very unpopular war and made Spain a terrorist target that it was not before that…Spain had no wish to pay for in innocent blood the price for a war it wanted no part of…and the results we hear of today simply show that Spain still opposes the Iraq war the attack simply brought it to the fore…and once again there is no hint of surrender or appeasement here… we ask why America is isolated!
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: agcatter on March 14, 2004, 06:21:45 PM Yes, I agree, Al Quida will find an excuse to attack whoever or whenever they please. These people are murderers pure and simple.
However, Europe is really asking for it. Terrorists don't commit terror in order to get something in return. They aren't seeking a negotiation. They commit terror in order to kill us. Whether it be Americans, Brits, Spaniards, Italians, even Turks and Saudis. They worship death. They want to kill us. Spain just made a huge mistake and Europeans are going to die. Fools. Terrorists blow up innocents and it's the government's fault never the terrorists. And no, all Europeans don't have the same view on terrorism. However, a much larger % of Europeans adhere to a less than get tough stance on terrorism than do Americans. I don't understand the mentality of Europeans. Appeasement NEVER works. History has clearly shown us that. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Ben. on March 14, 2004, 07:01:16 PM Yes, I agree, Al Quida will find an excuse to attack whoever or whenever they please. These people are murderers pure and simple. However, Europe is really asking for it. Terrorists don't commit terror in order to get something in return. They aren't seeking a negotiation. They commit terror in order to kill us. Whether it be Americans, Brits, Spaniards, Italians, even Turks and Saudis. They worship death. They want to kill us. Spain just made a huge mistake and Europeans are going to die. Fools. Terrorists blow up innocents and it's the government's fault never the terrorists. And no, all Europeans don't have the same view on terrorism. However, a much larger % of Europeans adhere to a less than get tough stance on terrorism than do Americans. I don't understand the mentality of Europeans. Appeasement NEVER works. History has clearly shown us that. Agcat they are not appeasers they do not hope that by voting for party’s that may have either opposed the war or alternatively may be from the left of the political spectrum will be inoffensive to Al Quida and therefore avoid its attentions…I will stick my neck and suggest that most of those who vote for leftwing party’s want al-qudia hunted down and destroyed and also want regimes such as Sadam’s was and Iran’s is toppled but not unilaterally by the US which seems to have its best interests at heart as by the rational of humanitarianism that the US now claims as its justification for the Iraq War nations that we are allied with Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan Turkmenistan even China and Burma should come under drastic international pressure to reform and face the threat of US military intervention American foreign policy would be far more internationally popular if it where consistent and Bush’s foreign policy is not…the approach of “my enemies’ enemy is my friend” gave rise to groups such as Al-Quida and yet the present administration does not seem to realise this and continues to accept the backing of nations ruled by groups and individuals who’s record on human rights and the general treatment of their citizens should be abhorrent to all civilised nations…but I digress… Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on March 14, 2004, 07:14:24 PM Updated : Partial Election Results for the major parties Poll counted : 96.32% PSOE: 42.7% (163 seats) PP: 37.7% (148 seats) CiU: 3.2% (11 seats) ERC: 2.5% (8 seats) EAJ-PNV: 1.7% (7 seats) IU: 5.0% (5 seats) CC: 0.7% (3 seats) Other parties: (5 seats) Does anyone know who these minor parties coalition with? I think IU is the Spanish Communists, who would almost certainly coalition with PSOE. CiU and EAJ-PNV are regional nationalist parties, but I have no idea what the ERC is. Seems like the PSOE would have to get the support of one of these three to get to a majoirty. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: jaichind on March 14, 2004, 07:31:54 PM Excellent !!! I tend to support right wing parties but the PP deserves this defeat for getting itself into a war that 90% of the population opposed. And then the war comes back to bit itself in the rear, try to blame it on ETA. They got what they deserve. This is just about the first time in my life that I am happy that Socialists anywhere won. Hopefully they can pull Spain out of this absurd war of occupation of Iraq.
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: agcatter on March 14, 2004, 07:42:20 PM You're all right. The U S should not have acted without the approval of the "international community". Oh wait, then Saddam would still be in power wouldn't he. Oh well, no biggie. He never hurt anyone - unless you count the Shiites, the Kurds, the Kuwaites, Iranians, etc. The old leftist montra "Saddam was a bad guy but....." It's not an oppressive dictator that is the problem. It's that baby killing Bush.
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: jaichind on March 14, 2004, 07:47:00 PM You're all right. The U S should not have acted without the approval of the "international community". Oh wait, then Saddam would still be in power wouldn't he. Oh well, no biggie. He never hurt anyone - unless you count the Shiites, the Kurds, the Kuwaites, Iranians, etc. The old leftist montra "Saddam was a bad guy but....." It's not an oppressive dictator that is the problem. It's that baby killing Bush. Disagree. USA should not have acted unless its vitial national interest were at stake. If it was, then it should act regardless of approval of "international community." But was its vitial national interests at stake ? For sure for Spain, Spanish vitial national interests were NOT at stake. Spain had no business being in the war, however good or bad Saddam may be to whoever. It was just none of their business. Now Spain could finally be out. Another member of the Coalition of the Willing bites the dust. At least the USA can count on great pargons of human rights and democracy such as Uzbekestan and Kazahstan to be still in the war. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: agcatter on March 14, 2004, 07:59:45 PM Beyond Iraq - that's done, Saddam is gone for good - what are you isolationists going to say when terrorist merge with a terrorist supporting regime like Iran and a a nuke is detonated in an American city by terrorists who would do it without blinking an eye.
I know what they'd say in Europe. America brought it on themselves. Blame America. Always blame America. Yeah, just like America should take the blame for 9-11. We brought it on ourselves. Never the fault of terrorists. Never. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: YoMartin on March 14, 2004, 08:40:51 PM It's not over yet, but right now it *looks* as if the PSOE will win... If the polls counted were mostly in the South (a PSOE stronghold), then the PP might be able to sneak it. If not the PSOE has won. Well, northern regions such as Catalunya and Pais Vasco aren´t exactly PP´s "backyard"... Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: YoMartin on March 14, 2004, 08:57:59 PM I don´t see PP´s defeat as the response to its decission to go to war. The day before the explosions, they were still ahead in the polls. But their mismanagement of that crisis was brutal. Many people saw them desperately trying to blame ETA (when everything pointed elsewhere) for some cheap political speculations, and decided to change their vote, or even to vote when they didn´t plan to. Saturday was probably the crucial day: the arrests of arabs, the video, the demonstrations to PP buildings... If the government had handled the crisis in a more responsible way, I don´t think it would have been punished (or at least, not so severely).
Someone asked about possible partners in governments. IU (United Left) is one possible partner, but their results were pretty poor (5-6 MPs). CiU (moderate catalan nationalists) are also potential partners. I don´t see PSOE going for a coalition with ERC (more extreme catalan nationalists). About Zapatero´s promises (pulling off the troops, etc.) I think the scenario is completely different now than in the campaig, and I guess the spanish people understand that. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: agcatter on March 14, 2004, 09:26:20 PM What is different about the scenerio? Are you saying that the socialist won't pull the troops out of Iraq after all?
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: minionofmidas on March 14, 2004, 10:59:30 PM Well, I'm still shocked with delight...
All the time 80/90% of the Spaniards were opposed to the war, opposed to their involvement in the war, and saying in opinion polls that they weren't going to vote on the issue. Then this terrible attack occurs, and Aznar makes his biggest mistake ever. Without a shred of evidence, he blames it on ETA, because he's staked so much of his reputation on his bigoted campaign against ETA and HB (don't get me wrong, they're worse than him, but look at his language - the man is a Basques-hating bigot). And it blows up in his face as more evidence linking the attack with Al-Quaeda emerges, lots of people who didn't plan on voting vote Socialist, and they get their second highest tally ever... I hope Zapatero ties Spain back to the European coasts. Right now it's somewhere off the Bahamas. I have a problem btw. I looked at the provincial results and the figures I found don't match up. PSOE 161, but should be 164 PP 146, but should be 148 CiU 11, but should be 10 ERC 8 PNV 5, but should be 7 IU and IC-V 5 CC 3 BNG 2 EA 2 CHA 1 NaBai 1 Entesa 1, but all these together should be 8 rather than 10 The PP suffered worst in Catalonia, it seems. Here's that region's result in seats (it gained one): PSOE 20 (+3) CiU 11 (-4) PP 6 (-6) ERC 8 (+7) IC-V 2 (+1) CiU Convergence and Union, Catalan regionalist, supported both the last Gonazalez and the first Aznar government ERC Republican Left of Catalonia, Catalan left-wing regionalist, party of Luis Companys (think civil war), their rebirth is really astonishing PNV Basque National Party, main-stream Basque nationalism, for more autonomy, not for independence IU United Left, Communists - lost their last seats in Andalusia and Asturias and are now limited to Madrid IC-V Catalan Left - Greens, the Communists' regional wing in poll alliance with the Greens (who seem not even to exist outside Catalonia), that they got two seats again means there's a Green in the Cortes :) CC Canarian Coalition BNG Galician Nationalist Block Entesa, NaBai, CHA I don't know what it's short for but regionalist parties from the Levante, Navarra and Aragon EA Eusko Alkartasuna (Basque Independence) - split away from HB and renounced violence ages ago, but maintain the call for a fully independent Basque Country including Navarra and parts of France Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Umengus on March 15, 2004, 02:57:02 AM Beyond Iraq - that's done, Saddam is gone for good - what are you isolationists going to say when terrorist merge with a terrorist supporting regime like Iran and a a nuke is detonated in an American city by terrorists who would do it without blinking an eye. I know what they'd say in Europe. America brought it on themselves. Blame America. Always blame America. Yeah, just like America should take the blame for 9-11. We brought it on ourselves. Never the fault of terrorists. Never. you are wrong. Europa like America and understands and gives (military) support to actions of USA in afganistan. But europans hate Bush and the war in Iraq is not the war of america, it's the war of Bush. Europeans are thinking that it's a good thing to see Saddam out of the power but they don't agree with the way (without ONU, lies of Bush administration,...). And I would want to say that at the beginning, Chirac was not against the war in Irak (look at 1990: france (with socialist president) was with USA against saddam) but the way in wich the bush administration covered the subject has constrained Chirac and France to be against. With 09/11 and madrid bombing (and "paris attacks" in 1995 and ETA in Spain and "tueurs du brabant" in Belgium and "Brigades rouges"in Italy and "la bande à Bader" in Germany. Terrorist is not new in Europa . We don't have lessons to receive you), Europa knows the threat and want to fight against, but not with the way of Bush. In last, Iraq was a *** dictatorship but not a terrorist country. Saudi Arabia, a allied of USA, is a terrorist country.... Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Huckleberry Finn on March 15, 2004, 03:30:05 AM And I would want to say that at the beginning, Chirac was not against the war in Irak (look at 1990: france (with socialist president) was with USA against saddam) but the way in wich the bush administration covered the subject has constrained Chirac and France to be against. [/quote Chirac was against war on Iraq, because he wanted to increase international influence and power of France. He wasn't against war itself. Chirac isn't pacifist. He is intriguer. I consider that Schröeder did it with more pacifistic motive. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: minionofmidas on March 15, 2004, 04:27:39 AM Got myself the official source for the provincial results and fixed my problems.
The "but should be" totals are correct. Of the small others, EA has only one seat and ENTESA was the name under which the Communists ran in Valencia, don't ask me why... The increase in turnout was tremendous btw. 77,2% (+8,5). Whao. The strongest increase in Guipuzcoa, where ETA-supporters staying at home pushed turnout down to 55,9% last time and it rebounded to 73,6% as these guys went to vote anyways. Regional (not provincial) seats breakup Galicia PP 12 (16) PSOE 10 (6) BNG 2 (3) Basque Country PNV 7 (7) PSOE 7 (4) PP 4 (7) EA 1 (1) minor northwestern regions PP 11 (14) PSOE 10 (8) NaBai 1 (0) IU 0 (1) Aragon PSOE 7 (4) PP 5 (8) CHA 1 (1) Catalonia PSOE 21 (17) CiU 10 (15) ERC 8 (1) PP 6 (12) IC-V 2 (1) Levante inc. Murcia PP 23 (25) PSOE 17 (15) Entesa 1 (+1) UV 0 (-1) Andalusia PSOE 38 (30) PP 23 (28) IU 0 (3) PA 0 (1) Island Regions and Moroccan Enclaves PP 12 (14) PSOE 10 (5) CC 3 (4) Old Castile and Leon PP 16 (18) PSOE 12 (10) Madrid PP 17 (19) PSOE 16 (12) IU 2 (3) New Castile and Extremadura PP 16 (18) PSOE 14 (13) Notice that four seats were redistributed, Pontevedra (in Galicia), Asturias, Caceres (in Extremadura) and Sevilla losing one, Gerona (in Catalonia), the Balearic Islands, Madrid and Las Palmas (the Eastern part of the Canaries) gaining one. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: minionofmidas on March 15, 2004, 09:16:41 AM Well, the Spanish are going home.
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: jaichind on March 15, 2004, 11:36:35 AM I am looking forward to the ousting of House of Freedom by Olive Tree in Italy in 2006. Berlusconi will desreve the same a PP for getting Italy in a absurd war of occupation in Iraq.
Same in Poland, SLP-UP faces a complete rout. Self Defence, The Platform, and Law and Justice will dominate Polish politics after the next election. None of them are that keen on Poland's role in the war of occupation in Iraq. One Two Three more Spains !!! Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 15, 2004, 01:48:48 PM ()
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Gustaf on March 15, 2004, 03:14:04 PM I think your all underrating the Spanish here…this is not a victory for Al Quida, to them it does not matter who is in power any where they are still their enemies…the Spanish voted in the socialist not because they where some pacifistic political party that had argued against the war on terror their a fairly moderate party who opposed the war in Iraq it is true but then so did most Spaniards and most Europeans…Spain is not in the habit of giving in to terrorism witness the manner in which they have resisted the attempts by the Basque separatist ETA who have fought for nearly thirty years to create an independent Basque nation and yet very little ground has been given to these terrorist….Spain has not given in to terrorism they have booted out a government which did something the majority of Spaniards disagreed with and as a result of that action they made Spain a target for global terrorism…ultimately Spain voted out the popular party because they did not want to go to war in Iraq and they where right to oppose that war…further more the large turnout (well over 60%) was seen by many as an act of defiance to the terrorists showing that Spain would not be intimidated nor allow the rights and liberties that the terrorist despise to be circumvented… Aznar’s actions have caught up with him he took part in a very unpopular war and made Spain a terrorist target that it was not before that…Spain had no wish to pay for in innocent blood the price for a war it wanted no part of…and the results we hear of today simply show that Spain still opposes the Iraq war the attack simply brought it to the fore…and once again there is no hint of surrender or appeasement here… we ask why America is isolated! Sums up my view. Well, not exactly sums up, but...you know what I mean... ;) Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Gustaf on March 15, 2004, 03:16:53 PM Yes, I agree, Al Quida will find an excuse to attack whoever or whenever they please. These people are murderers pure and simple. However, Europe is really asking for it. Terrorists don't commit terror in order to get something in return. They aren't seeking a negotiation. They commit terror in order to kill us. Whether it be Americans, Brits, Spaniards, Italians, even Turks and Saudis. They worship death. They want to kill us. Spain just made a huge mistake and Europeans are going to die. Fools. Terrorists blow up innocents and it's the government's fault never the terrorists. And no, all Europeans don't have the same view on terrorism. However, a much larger % of Europeans adhere to a less than get tough stance on terrorism than do Americans. I don't understand the mentality of Europeans. Appeasement NEVER works. History has clearly shown us that. I think you're missing the point. Has any European nation NOT supporting US led actions against Muslim countries ever been attacked by Muslim terrorists? I think not. Sure, you can argue that in the long run Islamic fundamentalism will be a threat to the European way of life, etc. But it still remains that we're very far from being as hated as the US and a few of your allies are. So appeasement at least appears sensible on reasonable grounds. And, it isn't really appeasement, since most Europeans didn't seek the conflict originally. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Gustaf on March 15, 2004, 03:22:30 PM And I would want to say that at the beginning, Chirac was not against the war in Irak (look at 1990: france (with socialist president) was with USA against saddam) but the way in wich the bush administration covered the subject has constrained Chirac and France to be against. [/quote Chirac was against war on Iraq, because he wanted to increase international influence and power of France. He wasn't against war itself. Chirac isn't pacifist. He is intriguer. I consider that Schröeder did it with more pacifistic motive. Chirac is a French nationalist, calling him a pacifist is absurd. Giving nuclear capability to Iraq certainly isn't pacifist. Schröder could be considered to be even worse, he opposed the war only to win the election. And Mitterrand, the former socialist president of France, was much more pro-West than any other French president of the 5th republic. He even supported the Falklands War. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 15, 2004, 03:29:34 PM I liked Mitterand.
Sure he was a corrupt old fox... but so are all French Presidents. Mitterand had Style ;D Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: YoMartin on March 15, 2004, 04:54:16 PM What is different about the scenerio? Are you saying that the socialist won't pull the troops out of Iraq after all? I´m not saying that, but the attacks change everything, and the decissions by the government will accomodate to whatever the criminal investigations may lead to. Some pressure from far-right anti immigration parties (all over Europe, not only in Spain) could increase in the future, and Zapatero, even coming from the left, may have to turn that way too. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: YoMartin on March 15, 2004, 04:59:54 PM IC-V Catalan Left - Greens, the Communists' regional wing in poll alliance with the Greens (who seem not even to exist outside Catalonia), that they got two seats again means there's a Green in the Cortes :) I don´t mean to disappoint you, but I think those 2 MPs from Iniciativa per Catalunya - Les Verds are not greens but come from IU. It´s just a guess, but communists would have to be really stupid to give the almost non-existent greens one of the first two places in the list... Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: opebo on March 15, 2004, 06:00:29 PM Al Queda won the Spanish elections.
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on March 15, 2004, 06:40:16 PM 100% correct, Opebo.
Al Queda won the Spanish elections. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: agcatter on March 15, 2004, 08:51:09 PM The European leftists who are rejoicing at the defeat of the pro American government in Spain need to keep one thing in mind. The Europeans have been free to pursue their utopian social policy largely because they only had to spend a tiny part of their GNPs on defense. We took care of their defense needs for them. Well, Europe, you are now at the mercy of Islamic terrorists in Spain, France, Britain, Germany, and Italy. With their large muslim populations and the door now wide open in Spain to Islamic extremists in North Africa, you are going to have to fend for yourself.
Europe lacks the will to fight back and now Al Quida knows Europeans can be intimidated by a few well placed explosives left on soft targets. Expect much more. The elections in Spain cost us 1200 Spanish soldiers in Iraq. Those will be replaced. Europeans on the other hand have now given the go ahead to a bunch of jihadists who intend to rain death and destruction on hundreds and thousands in a half dozen European countries. You are now at the mercy of a gang of thugs who attach no value to human life. You asked for it. I'm sorry for you. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: YoMartin on March 15, 2004, 09:54:51 PM Al Queda won the Spanish elections. So 63% of spaniards (everyone who didn´t vote for Aznar) are either a) Al Qaeda supporters or b) so stupid that are working for Osama bin Laden without even knowing it... People can think different than you without supporting Al Qaeda. The choice is not restricted to Bush/Aznar or Bin Laden. If you think that your ideas are the only pure, honest, valid and true ones, then your mind operates in a similar way than the Talibans´. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: agcatter on March 15, 2004, 10:03:58 PM The answer is b.
Those who choose peace over freedom will get neither. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: M on March 15, 2004, 10:25:57 PM What happened in Spain was terrible and unf\dermined some of my faith in human nature. Effectively, the Spanish people caved intio terrorism and allowed it to influence the democratic process. This has nothing to do with capitalism and socialism, militarism or pacifism. This has to do with an appeasement mindset, that perhaps if you seek accomodation with a murderer he will leave you alone.
This mindset has been popular in the West for at least a century, and here's why: in a democratic country, with an established tradition, most differences are resolved passibly. A dialogue exists between people, sometimes an angry one, but the communication is with words. Everyone wants something, and usually it is reasonable to work towards a sensible goal, often through compromise. Occasionally there are criminals who brake the code and do something unforgivable, and they are dealt with, sometimes with force, but even there we try very hard to make sure they get a fair shake and justice is not arbitrary. And so this mindset overwhelms us. Everyone is a pretty good person, or at least has reasonable goals. Then there are these junctures in history when we run up against a real monster, a truly pathological killer, someone who will stop at nothing, not murder, rape, oppression, enslavement, nor threatening the entire world with destruction. The classic example, of course, is Adolf Hitler. His arguments, we civilized folk of the West believed, were reasonable. The indemnities of Versailles was crushing. The Rhineland was indeed Germany's own backyard. The postwar borders were unfair. And who really cared about the Jews anyway? And so the West strove to be fair, to help Germany establish sensible borders. At each turn the Nazis saw weakness. Allowing the Rhineland's militarization proved the West would avoid war at any cost. Allowing the anschluss meant the borders of Europe could be tampered with, the Munich pact recognized that even democraciers would not be protected because the allies trembled before Germany's might. And so the Germans grew stronger, and in the end at least 50 million lives were lost in the most terrible confict our world has ever seen. What happened in Spain is niot about the war in Iraq. What happened was that Al Qaeda hit Madrid, slaughtered dozens, and within 80 hours the Spanish government had pledged to withdraw soldiers from Iraq, thus fulfilling one of Al Qaeda's goals. Make no mistake: Al Qaeda knows they have altered the balance of power between Paris and Washington, destroyed the old legend of Spanish Pride, and put a less hostile government in Spain. But that is not the main thing they have learned. They have found a terror tactic that works. They have found a fundamental, perhaps fatal, flaw of democracies. And they will not hesitate to use it again, and again, and again. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: minionofmidas on March 15, 2004, 10:57:15 PM IC-V Catalan Left - Greens, the Communists' regional wing in poll alliance with the Greens (who seem not even to exist outside Catalonia), that they got two seats again means there's a Green in the Cortes :) I don´t mean to disappoint you, but I think those 2 MPs from Iniciativa per Catalunya - Les Verds are not greens but come from IU. It´s just a guess, but communists would have to be really stupid to give the almost non-existent greens one of the first two places in the list... Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: minionofmidas on March 15, 2004, 11:01:14 PM Has any European nation NOT supporting US led actions against Muslim countries ever been attacked by Muslim terrorists? I think not. turkey certainly has been attacked by Al-Qaeda, and they aren't exactly the US's keenest allies. But then I guess everybody can see Al-Qaeda's reasons for that... Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Umengus on March 16, 2004, 03:37:04 AM The terrorist win is not zapatero, it's the "PATRIOT act". Spain is a powerfull democracy and terrorist attacks could not change that. The win of zapatero is the win of the democracy, not the win of terrorism.
France and other western democracy (Belgium, Germany, Spain,...) are currently in Afganistan to fight Talibans and Al Qaeda. The war against Iraq was not a war against terrorism because Al Qaeda was not in Iraq. I think that the fight against terrorism requires a great european army, a great collaboration between the countries (and it's the case) and especially good leaders and sorry but Bush is not a good leader. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: dunn on March 16, 2004, 04:02:33 AM M
wellcome back. you are right about that connection Gustaf Turkey did not let US airplanes to go throu and had a muslim gonerment. But they are secular-west bounded and that was enough for Al Qaeda. The europeans will understand after many many more death in cities around Europe Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 16, 2004, 12:28:00 PM If Spain had regional consttuencies results (e.g. Catalunya) would be PSOE 154 PP 144 IU 14 CIU 10 ERC 8 PNV 7 BNG 3 OTHERS 7 so, litle increase for IU Interesting Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Huckleberry Finn on March 16, 2004, 12:45:52 PM If Spain had regional consttuencies results (e.g. Catalunya) would be PSOE 154 PP 144 IU 14 CIU 10 ERC 8 PNV 7 BNG 3 OTHERS 7 so, litle increase for IU Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Gustaf on March 16, 2004, 02:55:51 PM The European leftists who are rejoicing at the defeat of the pro American government in Spain need to keep one thing in mind. The Europeans have been free to pursue their utopian social policy largely because they only had to spend a tiny part of their GNPs on defense. We took care of their defense needs for them. Well, Europe, you are now at the mercy of Islamic terrorists in Spain, France, Britain, Germany, and Italy. With their large muslim populations and the door now wide open in Spain to Islamic extremists in North Africa, you are going to have to fend for yourself. Europe lacks the will to fight back and now Al Quida knows Europeans can be intimidated by a few well placed explosives left on soft targets. Expect much more. The elections in Spain cost us 1200 Spanish soldiers in Iraq. Those will be replaced. Europeans on the other hand have now given the go ahead to a bunch of jihadists who intend to rain death and destruction on hundreds and thousands in a half dozen European countries. You are now at the mercy of a gang of thugs who attach no value to human life. You asked for it. I'm sorry for you. OK, now I have to just speak up and say that you're wrong. First off, I don't think that the defence business thing matter. I don't have the exact numbers in my head, but I do believe that the difference in European and American defense spending, as in terms of % of GDP is suffuciently small to not affect the underlying structure of society. And it's cheap to call it 'utopian', making it sound like something very strange, which it really isn't. Secondly, you seem to imply that the Spanish were fighting against terrorism but were then intimidated by the attacks and backed off. That is not correct, they didn't want the war from the out-start, they just tolerated the conservatives having a different opinion on this as long as it didn't hurt. Now it did and it became an issue. There are other factors as well, but these are the most important ones. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: YoMartin on March 16, 2004, 03:21:32 PM What happened in Spain was terrible and unf\dermined some of my faith in human nature. Effectively, the Spanish people caved intio terrorism and allowed it to influence the democratic process. This has nothing to do with capitalism and socialism, militarism or pacifism. This has to do with an appeasement mindset, that perhaps if you seek accomodation with a murderer he will leave you alone. This mindset has been popular in the West for at least a century, and here's why: in a democratic country, with an established tradition, most differences are resolved passibly. A dialogue exists between people, sometimes an angry one, but the communication is with words. Everyone wants something, and usually it is reasonable to work towards a sensible goal, often through compromise. Occasionally there are criminals who brake the code and do something unforgivable, and they are dealt with, sometimes with force, but even there we try very hard to make sure they get a fair shake and justice is not arbitrary. And so this mindset overwhelms us. Everyone is a pretty good person, or at least has reasonable goals. Then there are these junctures in history when we run up against a real monster, a truly pathological killer, someone who will stop at nothing, not murder, rape, oppression, enslavement, nor threatening the entire world with destruction. The classic example, of course, is Adolf Hitler. His arguments, we civilized folk of the West believed, were reasonable. The indemnities of Versailles was crushing. The Rhineland was indeed Germany's own backyard. The postwar borders were unfair. And who really cared about the Jews anyway? And so the West strove to be fair, to help Germany establish sensible borders. At each turn the Nazis saw weakness. Allowing the Rhineland's militarization proved the West would avoid war at any cost. Allowing the anschluss meant the borders of Europe could be tampered with, the Munich pact recognized that even democraciers would not be protected because the allies trembled before Germany's might. And so the Germans grew stronger, and in the end at least 50 million lives were lost in the most terrible confict our world has ever seen. What happened in Spain is niot about the war in Iraq. What happened was that Al Qaeda hit Madrid, slaughtered dozens, and within 80 hours the Spanish government had pledged to withdraw soldiers from Iraq, thus fulfilling one of Al Qaeda's goals. Make no mistake: Al Qaeda knows they have altered the balance of power between Paris and Washington, destroyed the old legend of Spanish Pride, and put a less hostile government in Spain. But that is not the main thing they have learned. They have found a terror tactic that works. They have found a fundamental, perhaps fatal, flaw of democracies. And they will not hesitate to use it again, and again, and again. I insist: I don´t think the punishment to Aznar was due to the attacks per se, but to the lies his government spread in the first hours after the attacks. In fact, if you think that possible left wing victories are a "fundamental, perhaps fatal, flaw of democracies", I would also insist that, in the long run, this attacks will help right wing pro-military parties rather than pacifist left parties. And that´s my worry about the future of democracies. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: YoMartin on March 16, 2004, 03:23:03 PM IC-V Catalan Left - Greens, the Communists' regional wing in poll alliance with the Greens (who seem not even to exist outside Catalonia), that they got two seats again means there's a Green in the Cortes :) I don´t mean to disappoint you, but I think those 2 MPs from Iniciativa per Catalunya - Les Verds are not greens but come from IU. It´s just a guess, but communists would have to be really stupid to give the almost non-existent greens one of the first two places in the list... The alliance existed, but I don´t think any of the 2 first spots was for the greens. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: minionofmidas on March 17, 2004, 12:23:58 AM Anyways, I think Ethelberth's regional results are wrong.
Or maybe he used a different system for allocating seats (not D'Hondt) or gave the constituencies different totals (because each province except Ceuta and Melilla is guaranteed three seats, Castile is grossly overrepresented.) I have PSOE 157 PP 145 IU 11 CC 4 BNG 3 PA (Andalusian regionalist, not in the current parliament) 2 All others unchanged. Back to "Castile overrepresented": On a uniform 2% swing from PSOE to PP, PSOE would still lead in the popular vote 40,7%-39,7%, but PP would be the strongest party 157-155 (with the Esquerra losing one and the IU gaining one) Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: dunn on March 17, 2004, 03:53:21 AM Anyways, I think Ethelberth's regional results are wrong. Or maybe he used a different system for allocating seats (not D'Hondt) or gave the constituencies different totals (because each province except Ceuta and Melilla is guaranteed three seats, Castile is grossly overrepresented.) I have PSOE 157 PP 145 IU 11 CC 4 BNG 3 PA (Andalusian regionalist, not in the current parliament) 2 All others unchanged. Back to "Castile overrepresented": On a uniform 2% swing from PSOE to PP, PSOE would still lead in the popular vote 40,7%-39,7%, but PP would be the strongest party 157-155 (with the Esquerra losing one and the IU gaining one) I think you are closer my calculation (D'hondt) are like yours but 156 for PSOE, 12 for IU Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: minionofmidas on March 17, 2004, 06:47:21 AM So you used the Corrected System, rather than D'Hondt?
I think Sweden uses 1.7, 3, 5, 7, 9 etc as dividers, I don't know about Finland, but traditional D'Hondt, as used in Spain and Portugal, uses 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc, thus making it tougher for small parties to win a seat. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: M on March 17, 2004, 12:27:10 PM Now calculate it including SpanishAmerica, Spanish West Indies incl Trinidad, Phillipines, Guam, Two Sicilies, Milan, Sardinia, Malta, the Low Countries, Oran, Rio de Oro, and Rio Muni, please.
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Gustaf on March 17, 2004, 01:03:40 PM So you used the Corrected System, rather than D'Hondt? I think Sweden uses 1.7, 3, 5, 7, 9 etc as dividers, I don't know about Finland, but traditional D'Hondt, as used in Spain and Portugal, uses 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc, thus making it tougher for small parties to win a seat. I ought ot know this I guess...no one cares, since the ned result is that each party gets the same percentage of seats as they got of the vote, almost exactly. But I think it's 1.4, but that's a vague recollection only. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: M on March 17, 2004, 01:07:42 PM If you include Charles V's Habsburg Empire at it's greatest extent, then throw in much of Cental Europe as well.
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Gustaf on March 17, 2004, 01:08:56 PM If you include Charles V's Habsburg Empire at it's greatest extent, then throw in much of Cental Europe as well. Why not the whole New World, based on the Tordesillas Treaty? :P Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: M on March 17, 2004, 01:12:45 PM Yes, before the line was moved from the the Madeiras to the Azores, Spain had a legitimate claim on Brazil too.
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Gustaf on March 17, 2004, 01:18:00 PM Yes, before the line was moved from the the Madeiras to the Azores, Spain had a legitimate claim on Brazil too. Exactly. Damned sneaky Porutguese... Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: minionofmidas on March 18, 2004, 05:51:36 AM And the new Prime Minister of the US is... Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero!?
I calculated what'd happen if Spain used the Hare-Niemeyer instead of the D'Hondt system, favoring small parties... PSOE 154 (-10) PP 143 (-5) IU 15 (+10) CiU 11 (+1) ERC 8 PNV 6 (-1) CC 4 (+1) BNG 3 (+1) NaBai 1 EA 1 CHA 1 PA 1 (+1) PAR 1 (+1) Yes. Two different Aragonese parties in the Cortes. PSM 1 (+1) That seems to be an alliance of Mallorquine regionalists, communists and greens. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: minionofmidas on March 18, 2004, 07:42:57 AM Correction.
PSOE 153, IU 16. Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 18, 2004, 07:43:18 AM Quote Independent polls carried out on Wednesday, the day before the bombings, showed the Socialists ahead with a slight majority. A poll carried out by Noxa Consulting on Wednesday gave the Socialists less than a 2 percent margin, putting them, nevertheless, in the lead. A similar poll conducted Friday -- a day after the attacks, gave the Socialists an even greater lead www.upi.com (http://www.upi.com) Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: minionofmidas on March 18, 2004, 07:56:32 AM There's an unconfirmed report that during Saturday night, the PP leadership were exploring possible contitutional loopholes to call off the election. They knew what was coming...
Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 19, 2004, 03:09:47 PM A map of the results:
() electionresources.org Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Platypus on March 19, 2004, 08:11:10 PM Has enough time opassed to make a rather crude joke about the bombing?
A friend of mine actually said it to me, but I thought you might appreciate it, even if it is a bit soon: FIRST EDITION: The pain in Spain caused mainly by the Train! Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: JohnFKennedy on March 20, 2004, 02:01:24 PM Has enough time opassed to make a rather crude joke about the bombing? A friend of mine actually said it to me, but I thought you might appreciate it, even if it is a bit soon: FIRST EDITION: The pain in Spain caused mainly by the Train! ouch Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: Platypus on March 20, 2004, 09:20:05 PM they say comedy=tragedy+time
I'm not sure if there is enough time yet though... Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: ShapeShifter on April 30, 2004, 07:51:52 AM Zapatero!
Am I too late for my predictions? Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: dunn on April 30, 2004, 10:42:56 AM Zapatero! Am I too late for my predictions? Title: Re:Spanish Elections Post by: dunn on April 30, 2004, 04:32:32 PM Zapatero! Am I too late for my predictions? This may explain the use of nukes on another thread! LOL |