Talk Elections

A very unlikely yet very possible scenario.  This means Dick Cheney or John Edwards would be President.

Let me hear your responses.

No. They'd be acting president until the House manages to choose. The House just keeps voting and voting until somebody cracks under the pressure, probably someone who'd been voting "against" his state, and probably a Democrat.

I don't think so, I was listening to Bill Schneider, CNN's Senior Political Analyst that if the House Ties once, then the Vice Presidential Candidate would be acting President until the 2008 election with no Vice President.

You could be right, but thats what I've been reading on CNN and other political web sites as well as watching on CNN

The House certainly voted quite often in the precedent election of 1800...

Or when Martin Van Buren failed to hold the Crawford lines together in 1824.

This scenario would be hilarious to say the least.

What if the Senate is tied too?

Then we're totally #^$*ed.

If the House cannot decide on a president, the newly elected vice president becomes Acting President. If the Senate ties as well and cannot elect a vice president to serve as acting president, then my assumption--following the order of succession--is the speaker of the House becomes Acting President.

This would remain the case until the House elected a president, or the Senate elected a vice president who would then serve as acting president.

I can't see this ever happening. If Congress put us in this kind of situation for very long, ther'd be hell to pay.

I read the current Vice-President (Cheney) becomes President regardless.

If the Senate is tied, the Vice-President (again Cheney) casts the tie breaker.

It is possible to end up with a Bush / Edwards or Kerry / Cheney Administration.

I do think it would be funny if we end up with a tie at 269 (or for that matter an circumstance where no candidate receives 270 votes).

Number one no way could their be a 25-25 house tie. Too many Republicans. If their is one vote were party members will be kept in line it would be in a Presidential Vote. If this does happen though, which I think the chances are less than me being struck by lightning, the Democratic or Republican senators who have been voting against their states would defect. I could see this happening with southern Democrats or Northeastern Republicans.

While we don't yet know what the makeup of individual delegations will be in the new Congress, in general it's safe to assume that any evenly split delegations will be unable to produce a vote--for the aforementioned party unity reasons. The Constitution specifically states that the House must elect the president by a majority of state delegations. Using the current House, if all for of the evenly split delegations didn't vote, I believe it would not be possible to elect a president--assuming party unity is maintained.

I outlined the possibilities a few months back...and again a few weeks ago

Worst case scenario for the Republicans:

25 for Bush
20 for Kerry
1 probably for Kerry (Vermont)
4 Evenly Divided (and thus abstaining).

Since a majority of the whole number of states (26) is necessary to a choice, this results in a deadlock.

If no-one breaks for Bush by January 20th, whoever the Senate selects (or simply Cheney, if the EV tie is caused by Robb voting for anyone but Bush or Cheney (Pres) and Cheney (VP) ) becomes Acting President until the House decides.

If the Senate is deadlocked, I'm pretty sure that Cheney cannot break the tie in favor of himself, although this is something that could go to the Supreme Court.

In that event, Dennis Hastert becomes Acting President if he wishes to resign his house seat.

If he doesn't, then Ted Stevens becomes Acting President if he wishes to resign his Senate seat.

If he doesn't, Colin Powell becomes Acting President.  If he refuses the spot (although I don't know if he can without resigning his position), it goes to John Snow, Sec'y of the Treasury...then our boy Rumsfeld.


A more interesting and very disturbing scenario is the following:

The Twelfth Amendment clearly specifies that a quorum of two-thirds of the state delegations (or Senators, in the case of the Senate) is necessary to a choice.  Thus, if the Democrats walk out they can prevent Bush from becoming President, or Cheney from becoming Veep, even if they lose seats in the House or Senate.  Similarly, if the Republicans lose the Senate, they can block an Edwards selection by a similar measure.

Whether Bush could appoint a new Vice President (which would be confirmed by simple majority quorum) before the first one is selected is also something that could go before the Supreme Court if there's a deadlock there or one side walks out.

If that happens I'm moving to Canada

Hiiissssssssss HIsssssssssss...don't even DISCUSS that scenario!!  :P :)

Actually, no he doesn't.  The 12th Amendment has specific requirements for both the Quorom and the margin of victory that are tougher than a normal Senate vote.  The 12th calls for a majority of the whole number of Senators for that vote and the VP isn't a Senator.  Under current law, the Speaker (presumably Hastert) would be next in line, but he would have to give up his seat to serve as Acting President, so he probably wouldn't do it.  next would be the President-pro-tem (probably Stevens) who would have the same conundrum and then and only then would the cabinet secretaries start to enter the pictire starting with Powell at the State Department.

However, if the election goes to Congress, I don't see any chance that the GOP won't have enough delegations to elect Bush.  The Senate is a different matter, as while it will probably remain in GOP control, a tied or Democratic controled Senate are both possible.