Talk Elections

?

Emmer

Dayton, oddly enough, would be my bet.

Mark Dayton political comeback

Dayton. Emmer won't win unless Horner makes this a legitimate 3 way race.

Dayton. Finally, Minnesota will have a liberal governor =)

I think MAK will win.

She's down 13% in the latest poll.......just curious why you think so.

Campaign has barely started and primary isn't until September.

It will be interesting to see how the polls move, then.

I have to make one correct, looks like the bill to move the primary earlier passed. It's now scheduled for August 10. Still way away though.

Btw, can someone explain to me why such a Democratic-leaning state like Minnesota haven't elected a Democratic (formally DFL) Governor since 1986, even in 2006, when Republican asses were kicked literally across the country?

Recently, it's been the combination of the DFL nominating HPs (well, boring Ps) and the NOTA option (Independence Party).

You do know that there are Republican governors of such conservative bastions as California, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Vermont?  And Democratic governors from such liberal bastions as Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming. Montana, Kentucky, and Tennessee?  

5 of the 10 most pro-Obama states have Republican governors and 5 of the 10 most pro-McCain states have Democratic governors.  You're going to have to wrap your head around that ASAP if you ever want to be a political junky. :)

Me!

Emmer won't win.  The man makes Michele Bachmann look mainstream.

Mark Dayton

Mark Dayton.

I'm seeing a ton of Mark Dayton TV ads... they're pretty honest.  People don't like soundbites here.. if they perceive a candidate as honest, he gets like a billion kajillion brownie points.

http://markdayton.org/mainsite/video-archives/2010/06/29/2-new-tv-ads/

These ads are genius.

Why?  They preempt the biographical attack on Dayton that he's some rich guy who feels he deserves higher office, even if he's not attacked that way, there will certainly be that perception, being that [I think] he's throwing his own cash into saturating the ads across the media stations?

I am not sure a class warfare ad works that well these days at the moment, even in Minnesota, and that is what these ads are about, including the pic of the French colonial mansion - a rarity in understated Minnesota (yes, that is the cultural norm up there; it ain't Hollywood), that must have taken a bit of work to find.

Plus, the tax loopholes favoring the rich, and what taxes the rich should be paying, are not specified, which I think leaves the ad as more of a class warfare kind of ad as its leitmotif, rather than something that is policy specific, that voters can sink their teeth into, one way or the other. Maybe I am way off base here, but outside maybe parts of the Iron Range, I find these ads singularly ineffective myself.

you might be right about that in the suburbs... but we're in a world where Dayton can target ads to specific areas.  The class warfare ads will *always* play very well in northern Minnesota.. hence the iron rangers in the 2nd video.. and the ads there aren't so much about being against Tom Emmer.. the DFL already has the vote there.. he's trying to push people to vote for him in the primary over Kelliher (though she would probably say the same things, but in a more hushed tone.. Dayton is just more honest about it).

In the past few days, I've seen more Matt Entenza ads as well.. and every ad I've seen seems to focus on education.. it must be the issue du jour.

But compared to Emmer, who believes that property taxes should fund schools which would either severely reduce funding to rural Minnesota or cause property taxes to skyrocket while the rich suburbs got a big break (Tom Emmer's Minnesota stops at the Hennepin county line, you know).. I think they're really trying to differentiate themselves as

"We're the common sense people who take a balanced approach to things, compared to Tom Emmer who is just an angry drunk bent on eliminating government so his corporate buddies can do what they will with your lives."

Like I said, part of their effectiveness comes from preemptively blunting class arguments against himself! 

Snowguy for Governor!

If there's any person who deserved to become the first DFL Governor since Rudy Perpich, that's our buddy Snowguy!

Finally watched those ads. Those are good.

Remember as stated those are primary ads so they're targeted at Democrats. In the general the entire campaign will probably mostly be "Emmer is the same as Pawlenty only worse" (which is true actually) considering Pawlenty's approval ratings have fallen through the floor and he has no real reason to try to improve.

Emmer's latest gaffe involves servers in the hospitality industry.  He came out saying he would propose that servers be paid the federally mandated minimum of $2.13/hour rather than the current state minimum wage of $6.15 (or $7.25 for bigger restaurant chains/restaurants that also operate across state lines).

He claimed that many servers make over $100,000/year and that that was a good reason to cut their pay.. as to help restaurants "prosper" and hire more people.  Because we all know that the first thing a business owner does when his labor costs have been cut but he doesn't have any increased demand is to go out and randomly hire more people! ::)

Well, now he's had to retract that after it was pointed out that waiters and waitresses are one of the lowest paid professions in the state alongside food preparation.

So, now he's putting on a big charade:  He's having a townhall meeting with servers from the hospitality industry next week.  Sounds nice right?

Except it's at a restaurant owned by the state chair of the MN GOP and it's invite only.  As seems to be the case with most Republican functions... we don't want the riff raff getting in and dirtying things up!

It always amazes me how Republican "spies" can show up at Democratic events and pretty much be welcomed and even included in the festivities.. but if a Democrat goes to a Republican event and is spotted.. you're immediately told to leave.

Such an inclusive big tent party! 

Class warfare always works in Minnesota.

Ah, candidates everywhere in both parties are avoiding events, where hecklers and others who may create a "problem," like the plague. Access control is now job one. Several commentators have noted this, in articles I think I read on Politico. Candidates know that they are just a cell phone video away from something being put up on Youtube that they don't want on Youtube.

So that is "my fair and balanced" thought for the day. Suck it up Snow!  :)

Yeah, can't imagine any of the people who work there asking any hardball questions, unless someone with no common sense whatsoever manages to slip in

The new head of Emily's List referred to Dayton and Entenza as "lazy men" (http://swingstateproject.com/diary/7181/mngov-emilys-list-head-tweets-that-dayton-entenza-are-lazy-men-then-deletes-it) in a personal tweet that she subsequently deleted. Classy.

Actually I agree with that statement for the most part, at least for Dayton who didn't bother with a campaign at the caucuses and convention and whose strategy just appears to be to try to throw lots of money. Though Emily's List supporting Kelliher just because she's a woman is very stupid and why I'm not a fan of that group at all.

Well the "town hall" meeting at the Mexican Restaurant didn't go so well for Tom Emmer.  There were some very pointed questions and some opined that he nearly lost his temper a few times (not unusual for Tom).  One waitress complained that it was already hard enough to feed 4 other family members with her wages, to which one Emmer supporter shouted "who cares!!!"

And then to top it off, some guy came in at the end and dumped a bag of 2000 pennies on the table in front of him, which ended the meeting a half hour early.

By even the rosiest of measures, the meeting was a catastrophe, and it's getting quite a bit of media coverage.

So, Tom Emmer wants to reduce the wages of servers by $5/hour, provide tax cuts for the rich, and peel back decades of necessary regulation.

And people obviously don't like it one bit.  I'm guessing many Republicans are thanking God for the MN IP.

Emmer is doing probably a worse job than Sharron Angle at hiding his extremism. The guy basically already has the nomination, he could at least pretend to move to the center.

I remember reading about Emmer being a waiter for a day.  Did that already happen?  Any funny stories?

How is Emmer more blatantly extreme than Angle?  Honest question.  The GOP candidate for governor in Illinois would be considered solidly conservative in Oklahoma, so it wouldn't be that crazy if that were the case, but I haven't heard any wacky stories from Minnesota

Angle hasn't been throwing out her lunacy as serious policy proposals since the primary, and has at least tried to keep it under wraps. Emmer went ahead with the disastrous "tip credit" thing as mentioned above, and as Snowguy noted did a horrendous job getting out of it. BTW this may be one of his staffers and not him, but please note this pulled but thankfully screenshoted tweet:

()

What is this image?  David Strom?

This is most likely what he was linking to:
()

yeah it did appear for me until Lunar's post but now vanished, weird.

Dayton.

Wow

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9oFrj3l1RkA&feature=player_embedded

This is an ad from (edit) Alliance for a Better MN.  It doesn't waste any time running a very emotion laden knife right across Tom Emmer's throat.  This issue has been brought up to no effect before, but I think this ad will have big shockwaves.

Ugh. That's an effective ad but as much as I'd hate to say it, Emmer was right with the drunk driving bill.

The bill didn't actually reduce penalties for drunk driving, rather what it aimed at was postponing the commencement of civil penalties for it (such as license suspension, the huge reinstatement fees and having it formally reported to your insurance company) until criminal penalties took effect, or essentially a true "innocent until proven guilty" thing. Under current law you can have the charges thrown out yet still have to deal with the civil penalties if arrested for a DWI.

Of course a guy with two DWIs is hardly the best choice to be the flag-bearer for DWI law reform...

I understand innocent until proven guilty... but just like we often hold criminals until a verdict is read... it is best to keep a drunk driver off the road until he has gone to court.

The problem is:  If you are driving a vehicle and arrested for a DUI, you are guilty of a crime regardless of whether you are formally charged with one.  You are not fit to drive a vehicle and the law states you must be of sound enough mind to control your vehicle at all times.  Revoking your license until your trial only makes sense in case there is some other reason you were driving poorly the night of your arrest (like you failed a field sobriety test because of a new medication you are prescribed).

The problem is that under current law your license can remain revoked even if the charges are dropped.

BTW Entenza is sure spending a lot of money on direct mail. I'm getting lots of flyers from him, mostly just hit pieces on Emmer and stuff linking him to Sarah Palin. Pretty good ones. Kelliher is sending lots too, but they mostly are just positive ones about her. Nothing from Dayton.

Who would have imagined that Mark Dayton - a man run out of the Senate in 2006 by his own party (who feared he was a dead man walking*) - would be on the verge of a political comeback?

* To be fair, given how good a Democratic year 2006 turned out to be - and given what a failure "rising GOP star" Mark Kennedy proved to be - Dayton probably would have won reelection. But it's still a pretty interesting comeback.

Mark Dayton is much better suited to be governor than a senator.  I voted for him in the primary today.  The only one I wasn't too excited about was Matt Entenza.  But I'll gladly support Margaret if she gets the vote today.

Emmer sounds horrible enough, somewhat like Bill Brady in Illinois, that Democrats can get excited about the opposition no matter who their candidate is

Well, the 3 frontrunners in the DFL race are all pretty likable and electable.

Well, similar situation in CT then.  Everybody hates Foley.

Currently Margaret Anderson Kelliher leads Mark Dayton 43% to 38% with Dayton closing the gap.  The Twin Cities have been strongly for MAK while outstate has been strongly for Dayton.

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20100810/

Entenza has conceded.

Dayton closing the gap:

MAK:  41.5%
Dayton:  39.8%
with 72% of the precincts reporting.  Everywhere yet to report is heavily Dayton so it'll be very close and is probably too early to call.

I just hope we don't end up with a Coleman/Franken-esque recount.

If Lamont and Dayton both go down, what does that mean?  Both are former senatorial candidates with tons of $$$ but who were bucked by the party establishment.

I really like Malloy, as I've said elsewhere, I have not been following MN, but am surprised by these results. 

It's very very close:

40.7% MAK
40.3% Dayton

Margin 1900 votes

Anything under 2000 votes will mean a recount.  85.3% of precincts reporting.

Margin down to 0.2% now, or 700 votes.  St. Louis COunty only 28% reporting.

I think Dayton may have this in the bag.

And I think a skunk sprayed somewhere nearby because my room reeks like skunk now :(

Dayton has pulled ahead by just under 2000 votes, and the rest of the unreported precincts look to increase that margin, being all from outstate MN with a bunch in Duluth.

currently it's Dayton 40.8%
MAK 40.3%

Politico has called it for Dayton with a 0.9% margin (41% to 40.1%) and a 5000 vote margin.

Closer than I expected.  Congratulations, probably Governor Dayton.

Time to get a Dayton bumper sticker.