Talk Elections

This thread is set aside for posting reports of exit polls and commenting on them.  ANy deviance from this, such as discussing standardized test scores, will result in a Savage beating, namely I will pick up Michael Savage and beat you with him.  Yes, I am strong enough to do that.

Posting exit polls elsewhere will be punished by dressing you up as  a giant biscuit, covering you in bar-b-que sauce and locking you in a room with Lucky.

I guess that was meant at me.  :)

Here's your first from NRO.  Take it with a grain of salt, as always.

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/corner.asp

EXITS [KJL]
Bush leads ohio 49 to 41
Posted at 01:33 PM

Now, off to vote.

Since our posts crossed, I will submit myself to punishment (I just posted an Ohio exit thread)... it sounds fun. :)  Err... umm... nevermind.

Heh.  I had posted while you were writing, so you may live.

I just figure this will be easier than 100 threads for 50 exit polls.

To be taken with a grain of salt indeed, seeing that that the National Review is ultra right wing.  Disregard the exit polls and wait for the results tonight!

A problem here. Who got the other 10%?
:)

NRO just updated to Kerry +4% in Ohio.

Seeeeeeeeee.... I said not to trust the Exits!  :-D

They just pulled that and put up Kerry +4 and an urge to get out the W vote.

Exit polls as a way to alter turnout I figure.

For a moment, this looked like an unprecedented triumph for the Libertarians...Nader isn't even on the ballot in OH!  Glad to see sanity has been restored.

It would be great if Badnarik got 9% in Ohio, but it's not going to happen.

hahaha . . . I would love to see the Libertarians get some kind of "decent" figure in the polls.  Might give them a chance in the next election.

Now it is just Kerry +4.  Could be Kerry 45-41 for all we know.

Slew of early VNS numbers up at:
http://www.mydd.com/

Looks good for Kerry, but very early & I don't trust 'em.

The first full round is usually published at 2pm Eastern, so we should know very shortly....but of course, this is only very early morning results.

I don't believe exit polls. At 10:00, I think we'll know the winner - but probably not much prior to.

I thought the voter news service was gone?

Uh oh, watch out there; you're violating J.J.'s 2nd rule of elections.

I believe the POLLS. I don't believe the EXIT polls.

Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE....

---

Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- show Kerry in striking distance in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...

---

Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...

---

No one believes Drudge

    AZ  CO  LA  PA  OH  FL  MI  NM  MN  WI  IA  NH
Kerry    45  48  42  60  52  51  51  50  58  52  49  57
Bush    55  51  57  40  48  48  47  48  40  43  49  41

From VNS

Damn! This means Bush by a landslide

Needless to say.. since the demographics of those who vote during the day is very different than thos who vote at night... these mean very little :)

Agreed...athough Kerry's leads by 20 in Pennsylvania, 18 in Minnesota, and 16 in New Hampshire will certainly be no where near that much of a blowout, you have to figure that such large gaps bode very well for Kerry in those states.

No, he's violating J. J.'s First Rule of Elections.  The exits are probably showing a Kerry lead among voters this morning.  That doesn't take into accout those early voters and it has a different demographic than the the later voters.

It also doesn't take into account the GOTV drives.

But it is interesting.

I think you're the one person who actually believes those numbers.

Here's how Drudge reported the first round of exit polls on 11/7/2000:

BUSH IN A SQUEAKER

PA, FLA - Dead heat

OH, MO, TENN, ARK - Bush leads

Mich - Gore by 3%

Sounds familiar.

Early morning results usually (but not always) favor Republicans.  If these numbers are indeed correct, then Kerry is in a VERY good position.

Sorry, but what's VNS?

The numbers are indeed trash

Voter news service.

I didn't think VNS existed anymore.  AP is handling exit polling this year, right?

This has posted on National Review's "The Corner", under the heading "Rumor":

"bush down 4 in ohio, down 4 in fla, downm 1 in NM, down 1 in mich, down 2 iowa

As Kathryn said, these early reports are unreliable, but these are numbers we just got from a major newsroom. Take with a grain of salt."

Drudge posted those numbers - but now took them down ???

My guess is that they're hoaxed.  VNS doesn't exist anymore.  AP does exit polling for this election.

I'm worried...

Do you people really believe Drudge? Has he been right more than on Lewinsky?

FWIW, Drudge has said that those exit polls he posted had a woman to man ratio of 59-41.

Another grain of salt.

At the Corner, Jonah Goldberg is saying that the early numbers from mydd.com (and reposted by Wonkette) "are absolutely, positively  not exit poll numbers. They might be results of early voting "exit" polls (i.e. votes cast over the last two weeks), but they do not track at all the exits for votes cast today. That said, I'm told the exits don't look great for Bush either."

"Anna Greenberg, Vice President of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, has just announced the earliest exit polls for the US presidential election. Ms Greenberg reports that exit polls obtained from a group of seasoned and highly professional pollsters reveal that Kerry is now leading Bush in the crucial state of Florida by a massive six points. Furthermore, exit polls in other battleground states now indicate that Kerry is leading Bush by wide margins in: Michigan, Ohio, Iowa and Oregon. Although, she would not venture a prediction, Ms Greenberg stated that she was cautiously optimistic for Kerry. Her caution was obviously driven by a desire not to discourage any potential Kerry voters from voting. Her remarks on the first exit polls were broadcast in an interview with John Snow on the Evening News on Channel 4 in London, The United Kingdom"

source: dailykos

While the exit poll showing 60-40 PA is clearly bumpkus, the tenor over at National Review is clearly that the exit polls are not good for Bush.

Of course, this stuff is only relevant for those of us who can't wait five more hours for the real thing...

TheOldLine

They were wrong in 2000 and 2002. And these aren't even real exit polls.

Basically, media attempts to discourage Bush voters from voting. I'll be impressed with real numbers.

When I feel comforted by Zogby, I know something's wrong...

Re Florida.

Drudge has posted that Castor in the senate race is +3.

Castor/Kerry vs Bush/Marteniez have polled very similarly so from this we can infer the Florida number of Kerry +1 (as per NRO) or Kerry +4 are "sane" if not accurate.

Exit polls in 2000 BTW wretchedly underpolled Hispanics/Cubans by a vast amount - Exit polls are set up a a very few polling stations and then "post stratified" to match the actual results.

The +4 or +1 for Kerry Tells me Florida is very close based on a 59 / 41 Female / Male split.

If the real number is +1 Kerry based on 59 / 41 male / female Bush is likely up a bit, if it is +4 for Kerry the race is basically tied.

Wonkette is now posting new numbers for the national PV and a few swing states:

K/B

USA: 50-49
FL: 50-49
OH: 50-49
Colorado: 48-50
NM: 50-48 (these numbers could change)

GOP sources are telling NRO people Drudge's Prez numbers are complete bunk.

They say Bush leads, albeit narrowly, in FL and OH. Doing very well in IA.

Colorado is WAY closer than I expected.

With numbers like that Salazar will very likely win the senate race.

SRGFM has posted the numbers for a few swing states:

Florida
Kerry 99%, Bush 0.5%

Ohio
Kerry 72%, Bush 0.01%

On the HUGE assumption that the 1% Kerry leads in Florida and Ohio (Drudge now reports they are indeed 1% leads) based upon a 59 / 41 Gender split Bush would be marginally ahead in both.

Remember also that Exit polls have a whole whack of error associated with them as well.

We know no more or less than we knew 6 hours ago IMHO :)

Remember, the GOP usually begins voting en masse at 4pm, which is why early exit polls often show Democrats doing better than they really are (remember Drudge's leak that Erskine Bowles was crushing Liddy Dole?).

The GOP doesn't even start voting in large number in Florida, Pennsyvania, and New Hampshire for another 9 minutes.

You piss me off

Not to mention the Western states!!

Colorado? Please. It's what, barely after lunchtime there

Why on earth is everyone salivating at what Drudge posts! In the East Coast people are leaving their work and hitting the polls. That will affect everything.

And the early voters, who according to national (not state) surveys favor Bush and in IA 50% of the GOP registered voters voted early. Absentee ballots, especially military, which favor Bush, also not counted by exit polls.

The exits predicted Gore by 100,000 votes in Florida, and that wasn't an early return it was the real deal.  I won't believe a 60-40 race in PA until the Secretary of State certifies it.

Similar question.  Seems to me that everyone has taken an "early exit poll viagra" or something already.  

Come on folks, let's put our "fingers" on ice for the time being and wait till the polls close.  At that point, we can somewhat rationally start claiming victories or defeats in various states.

Bush is now plummeting on Tradesports.  It now has Kerry favored to win the election.  Kerry slightly favored in OH, but Bush still slightly favored in FL.

From Durdge, even he cautions against taking these seriously.

[But early 2000 exit polls showed Gore +3 in Florida; showed Gore-Bush even in CO [Bush won by 9], exits showed Gore +4 in AZ [Bush won by 6]

Slate has a different set of numbers, purportedly compiled from both early and mid-day exit polling:

Florida
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Ohio
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Continue Article

Pennsylvania
Kerry 54
Bush 45

Wisconsin
Kerry 51
Bush 46

Michigan
Kerry 51
Bush 47

Minnesota
Kerry 58
Bush 40

Nevada
Kerry 48
Bush 50

New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48

North Carolina
Kerry 49
Bush 51

Colorado
Kerry 46
Bush 53

What I'm seeing is that those first numbers reported (the VNS ones)were obviously false.  They may have come from the DNC, as far as I know.

We should be getting more in soon, but as always reliability on these things is terrible and I would hope that the gender gap rumor is not true on these exit polls.  It would put them into question.

Glad I was out with my family and just returned.  This is much ado about nothing at this point.

Minnesota is absolutely hilarious

National Review reports that the "VNS" numbers may have originated in the Kerry campaign.   As many people have noted "VNS" doesn't even exist anymore.

Anyhow, anyone who is reading this thread needs to check out Mystery Pollster on the Exit Polls, where he notes that the sample error on early exit polls is in the neighborhood of +/-7%.
 http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/

TheOldLine

In 2000 and 2002 many were off by 5-10% initially, some even more.

Bush is sitting a little below 40% at Tradesports, and I'm almost tempted to get an account and bet a little.

Of course, it'd probably be impossible to get to their site right now.  They're being swamped, I'm sure.

Yummy turnout goodness
by kos
Tue Nov 2nd, 2004 at 20:10:45 GMT

We're trying to fix capacity issues with both Daily Kos and MyDD, so please bear with us. Here's the latest MyDD catch, from CNN:
Ohio - African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher then those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts.
Florida - Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%.

Pennsylvania - African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than bush precincts.
 
Michigan - Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than Bush.

http://www.dailykos.com/


fb

In Phila, there was a big African American turnout intitially, but it's stopped.  It might be a wave effect; I'll check between 5-7.

From Mydd

Here's some early exit data polling of Latinos in Florida (2000 numbers are in parenthesis):
       KERRY         BUSH

Hispanics    46 (35)      53 (65)
Cubans       32 (17)      68 (82)
Kerry continues to lead Florida overall as well. Again, these are exit poll numbers, so doubt them, but it looks great!

Kirsten Powers:

Matt Miller from the Kerry campaign in Florida just gave an update to reporters on how thing are on the ground. The bottom line is turnout is very high and voting is going smoothly. There have been a handful of minor incidents that have been solved by local election officials. Miller said turnout is higher in precincts that voted for Gore than in precincts that voted for Bush in 2000. More:

-- Dems are running ahead of where we were in 2000 at this point in the day.
-- Bush is running behind where he was at this point in 2000
-- In comparison to 2000, by this time of day there were widespread reports of problems in the state and today that is not the case. Things are proceeding well and no widespread reports of problems.
--Touchscreen voting machines are working.

A reporter asked a question about how the Republicans have made a lot of convicted felons voting, and have there been incidents about that. Miller said despite the bluster of the Republicans around this issue, thus far they haven't lodged many challenges.

New numbers from Wonkette:

FL: 52/48 - KERRY
OH: 52/47 - KERRY
MI: 51/48 - KERRY
PA: 58/42 - KERRY
IA: 50/48 - KERRY
WI: 53/47 - KERRY
MN: 57/42 - KERRY
NH: 58/41 - KERRY
ME: 55/44 - KERRY

NM: 49/49 - TIE

NV: 48/49 - BUSH
CO: 49/50 - BUSH
AR: 45/54 - BUSH
NC: 47/53 - BUSH


"A NOTE ON EXITS/EARLY POLLING: We post these numbers because information wants to be free! Run, information! Run for your life!

UPDATE: K/B 50/49 in fla at 4:15, says another birdie."

from Wonkette:

http://www.wonkette.com

The Birdies Sing a Sweet, Sweet Tune
FL: 52/48 - KERRY
OH: 52/47 - KERRY
MI: 51/48 - KERRY
PA: 58/42 - KERRY
IA: 50/48 - KERRY
WI: 53/47 - KERRY
MN: 57/42 - KERRY
NH: 58/41 - KERRY
ME: 55/44 - KERRY

NM: 49/49 - TIE

NV: 48/49 - BUSH
CO: 49/50 - BUSH
AR: 45/54 - BUSH
NC: 47/53 - BUSH


A NOTE ON EXITS/EARLY POLLING: We post these numbers because information wants to be free! Run, information! Run for your life!

freedomburns

Oh No! Landon Landslide!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wasn't VNS completely disbanded or something like that after 2000?

It was renamed to National Election Pool.  The VNS tag could be an indication of accuracy.

Breaking news......

A exit poll from the Southern Women Hairstylists for Socialists has Kerry up 58 - 40 on Bush.

Yeeeeeesssss Kerry is winning
wonkette:

Bush only up by one in Virginia? In gun-toting, gay-bashing VIRGINIA? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!

Kerry = + numbers
FL +4
OH +5
MI +4
PA +16
IA +2
WI +5
MN +15
NV Bush up 1
NM tied at 49
CO Bush up 1
VA Bush up 1
NC Bush up 5

ALSO: WI, as of 4:41PM, 51/48 KERRY

Our Call
Zogby International's 2004 Predictions
(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)


2004 Presidential Election

 Electoral Votes:
 
Bush
 213
 
Kerry
 311
 
To Close To Call
 Nevada (5)
 
To Close To Call
 Colorado (9
 

Take some more pills and piss off troll.

Wow. We have some really pissed off Republicans right now.

Wait to see how Democrats are when the actual results come in.

Let's just plain WAIT until the actual results come in. ;)

That should be exciting.

Democrats are desperate to put their faith in exit polls.

Strategic Vision is doing exit polling?

"At Strategic Vision, we have been reviewing and conducting exit polls and do not know where the media reports came from. We are showing a slight advantage for Bush in Florida by 1 point."

CEO of SV.

States-Yes, yes we are :D

Damn. If SV is showing it so close, it must be grim for Bush.

I hate to bring actual facts into things but..

according to Drudge..

17:12:21 ET // UPDATE: Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday evening after exit data from big media sources claimed Kerry competitive in key states.... FL Kerry +1 PA Kerry+2-4 OH Kerry+1 WI Kerry+4 MI Kerry+2 NH Kerry +4 // Senate Winners: Martinez FL  Thune SD Bunning KY Salazar CO // Losers: Bowles NC Coors Co [CAUTION: Early 2000 exit polls showed Gore +3 in Florida; showed Gore-Bush even in CO [Bush won by 9], 2000 exits showed Gore +4 in AZ [Bush won by 6]]... Developing...

Bush and Martinez have been polling almost identically...

Survey USA in the same sample had
     =>BUsh +1 / Martinez Tied

Zogby  in the same sample had
     =>Bush tied / Martinez Tied

etc.. etc...

In fact in the last 12 poll Bush and Martinez were never more than 2% different in terms of a Lead / deficit.

Drudge has CALLED the Senate seat for Martinez.. ie he is up a fair bit..

If the result is indeed Kerrry +1 in Florida, rthere is NO WAY Martinex could be far enough ahead to be declared "elected"

Either Kerry +1 is wrong, or Martinez elected is wrong...

Or Drudge is wrong.

Hmm, how many of those Hispanic voters would split their ballots for Kerry/Martinez?

Certainly not that many.

Someone is wrong.

On Sean Hannity's radio show, Drudge is really giving the impression (perhaps unintentionally) that the exit polls are ugly for Bush.  He's not giving numbers, he's pointing out the past problems with exit polling, and he's railing against the biased mainstream media consortium behind the exit polls.  

If the exit polls looked good for Bush, he would report the numbers, as he did in 2000, and he would not repeatedly question the validity of exit polling,  but report the results uncritically, as he did in 2000.

Kerry-Bush
FL 50-49
OH 50-49
PA 54-45
WI 51-46
MI 51-47
NH Kerry +3

NV 48-50
CO 46-53
NC 49-51
MO Bush +11

In early 2000, exit polls showed: Gore +3 in Florida;
Gore-Bush even in CO (Bush won by 9)
Gore +4 in AZ (Bush won by 6)


Senate Thune +4 (SD) (vs. Daschle)
Castor +3 (FL) (vs. Martinez)
Burr +6 (NC)
Bunning +6 (KT)
Coburn +6 (OK)
Demint +4 (SC)
Salazar +4 (CO) (vs. Coors)

But, Hegemon, the exit polling was bad for the President in 2000.  The MSM expected him to lose the pV by mor than he did and to lose the EV as well.

Exactly, Bush is actually doing BETTER then 2000.

Afternoon Exit Polls
The latest batch.
By Jack Shafer
Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 2:29 PM PT


The 4 p.m. ET exit-poll numbers:

Florida
Kerry   52
Bush    48

Ohio
Kerry  52
Bush   47

Michigan
Kerry  51
Bush   48

Pennsylvania
Kerry  58
Bush   42

Iowa
Kerry  50
Bush   48

Wisconsin
Kerry   53
Bush    47

Minnesota
Kerry   57
Bush    42

New Hampshire
Kerry   58
Bush    41

Maine   
Kerry    55
Bush    44

New Mexico
Kerry   49
Bush    49

Nevada
Kerry   48
Bush   49

Colorado
Kerry   49
Bush    50

Arkansas
Kerry   45
Bush    54

North Carolina
Kerry   47
Bush   53
-------------------------------------------------------------

I think absantee ballots will pull Kerry wins in Iowa and Nevada

So the third party vote is 1% in CO?  It was 7% in 2000.  Badnarik alone will probably get more than 2-3%.

Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 2:49 PM PT


The first wave of exit-poll data reaching my desk comes from a variety of sources. In some states the sources disagree about the specific margin by which a candidate leads, but never about which candidate is out in front. Some of the confusion may stem from the mixing of morning exit-poll numbers with early afternoon numbers. With those provisos and the understanding that the early numbers are predictive of nothing without their accompanying computer model, here's what I've heard:

Florida
Kerry  50
Bush   49

Ohio
Kerry  50
Bush   49

Pennsylvania
Kerry 54
Bush 45

Wisconsin
Kerry 51
Bush 46

Michigan
Kerry  51
Bush   47

Minnesota
Kerry  58
Bush   40

Nevada
Kerry  48
Bush   50

New Mexico
Kerry  50
Bush   48

North Carolina
Kerry  49
Bush   51

Colorado
Kerry  46
Bush   53

updated again, very close in florida and ohio

Something is wrong with Minnesota.

Very close in North Carolina too, almost as much as Florida and Ohio.

Wonkette:

5:40 p.m.

CO Bush 50 Kerry 48
FL Kerry 51 Bush 49
IA Kerry 50 Bush 49
MI Kerry 51 Bush 47
MN Kerry 54 Bush 44
NV tied
NH Kerry 53 Bush 45
NJ Kerry 54 Bush 44
NM Kerry 50 Bush 48
OH Kerry 51 Bush 49
OR still too early to get accurate reading
PA Kerry 53 Bush 46
WI Kerry 51 Bush 48
Disclaims a birdie: "*** There appear be problems with exits in the following states that could be tipping numbers toward kerry: MN, NH, VT, PA, VA, CT, DE. described only as 'serious' issues we're looking at. so i would not put too much faith in those results."

Fellow Democrats, I ask you -- do not THAT much faith in exit polls. They are traditionally unreliable. There is still a huge chance that Bush will easily win re-election.

I would like to see that these polls are accurate, but we all know they won't be. Lets just wait and see till the big states start coming in.

Ahhhhh...memories :)

This comment appears to be the smartest out there looking back.

I had a huge intuition to lay a good amount of money on Bush on Tradesports about 5:00 PM EST when he was down to about 20, but I didn't.

Memories, ah memories.... :)

This exit polls are worrying me. I guess Kerry has basically won this one...

I'm sure exit polls dicouraged enough WI voters to make a difference.

Exit Polls are dumbass