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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Congressional Elections => Topic started by: Vepres on July 06, 2010, 12:14:11 PM



Title: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Vepres on July 06, 2010, 12:14:11 PM
So, do you think there are any seats that could potentially be "sleeper seats"? What I mean is, they are largely held to be safe for the incumbent, but then the election turns out to be close or even a victory for the challenger.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Sam Spade on July 06, 2010, 01:04:33 PM
If a wave gets going, sure.

The most likely areas being wherever the wave hits or the most Republican of the seats where the incumbent has done no campaigning or has spent no money.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: TeePee4Prez on July 06, 2010, 01:36:59 PM
Do I dare say PA-13?  Nah, Dee Adcock is not going to get attention from the NRCC.  However, I have seen a few lawn signs for him.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 06, 2010, 04:35:46 PM
In a normal election* there are always results which cause a shock to most observers. Usually if you're good at watching elections and sufficiently obsessive about them you can spot most of them in advance, though chances are you'll never spot everything going on.

That's a 'yes', by the way.

In addition to the obvious stuff, cinyc's theories are worth paying attention to. They are extremely partisan, of course and are quite likely to be meaningless, but we should not forget that the poster that called the scale of 2006 with the most accuracy was Scoonie; equally partisan but for the other side. Just a thought.

*The essentially static pattern of House races in the early 2000s was not normal by either international or historical American standards. It's actually quite unusual for so little to shift and for so many seats to be so utterly safe.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 06, 2010, 05:43:37 PM
If Gene Taylor continues to cruise on autopilot, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Mr.Phips on July 06, 2010, 05:53:46 PM
If Gene Taylor continues to cruise on autopilot, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go.

If Taylor could get through 1994 with ease, I dont see him being going unless its in a pine box. 


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: BillyW on July 06, 2010, 06:40:37 PM
But thats what makes it a sleeper. No one is expecting it. I think Taylor could indeed not make it this year.

Would Chet Edwards be a sleeper? I'm putting in the call.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Sam Spade on July 06, 2010, 07:08:59 PM
But thats what makes it a sleeper. No one is expecting it. I think Taylor could indeed not make it this year.

Would Chet Edwards be a sleeper? I'm putting in the call.

Edwards has a serious, funded opponent.  Cook has it as Toss-up, as do I.  Rothenberg has it at toss-up, tilt Dem.

A good example would be Taylor or Ross or Boren or maybe even Matheson.

Personally, I tend to agree with JLT.  There is one big reason why that shows up in the past.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: nhmagic on July 06, 2010, 07:16:00 PM
ME01-Chellie Pingree, apparently her fundraising is abhorrent and her opponent is a very formidable candidate - dems could be sleeping in on this one


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: GJ12 on July 06, 2010, 07:25:06 PM
ME01-Chellie Pingree, apparently her fundraising is abhorrent and her opponent is a very formidable candidate - dems could be sleeping in on this one

Ya, I grew up there and it is definetely more conservative than you would expect.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: nhmagic on July 06, 2010, 07:37:28 PM
ME01-Chellie Pingree, apparently her fundraising is abhorrent and her opponent is a very formidable candidate - dems could be sleeping in on this one

Ya, I grew up there and it is definetely more conservative than you would expect.
kind of, Portland has a lot of cruncy granola types, I live in NH, but have a job in that district - there are more dems for sure, but I can totally see them staying home and the conservatives coming out


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: GJ12 on July 06, 2010, 07:48:21 PM
ME01-Chellie Pingree, apparently her fundraising is abhorrent and her opponent is a very formidable candidate - dems could be sleeping in on this one

Ya, I grew up there and it is definetely more conservative than you would expect.
kind of, Portland has a lot of cruncy granola types, I live in NH, but have a job in that district - there are more dems for sure, but I can totally see them staying home and the conservatives coming out

Portland is latte liberals for the most part with some working class areas but the burbs are more fiscally conservative and we have some deeply religious rural parts too.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: nhmagic on July 06, 2010, 08:20:30 PM
ME01-Chellie Pingree, apparently her fundraising is abhorrent and her opponent is a very formidable candidate - dems could be sleeping in on this one

Ya, I grew up there and it is definetely more conservative than you would expect.
kind of, Portland has a lot of cruncy granola types, I live in NH, but have a job in that district - there are more dems for sure, but I can totally see them staying home and the conservatives coming out

Portland is latte liberals for the most part with some working class areas but the burbs are more fiscally conservative and we have some deeply religious rural parts too.
True


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 06, 2010, 08:30:31 PM
Pingree's been outraising her opponent about 3-1 since he got in the race, and has $266k on hand to his $40k.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: GJ12 on July 06, 2010, 08:47:44 PM
Pingree's been outraising her opponent about 3-1 since he got in the race, and has $266k on hand to his $40k.
A wall of cash can't stop a wave.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: nhmagic on July 06, 2010, 09:04:47 PM
Pingree's been outraising her opponent about 3-1 since he got in the race, and has $266k on hand to his $40k.
Yeah, but you compare her fundraising totals to that of other dem incumbents and its really weak and her spending is fairly high.  No signs up either by the way in key areas she needs them to be in.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 06, 2010, 09:07:12 PM
Pingree's been outraising her opponent about 3-1 since he got in the race, and has $266k on hand to his $40k.
Yeah, but you compare her fundraising totals to that of other dem incumbents and its really weak and her spending is fairly high.  No signs up either by the way in key areas she needs them to be in.

All right, just keep moving those goalposts then.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: GJ12 on July 06, 2010, 09:07:41 PM
The signs I've seen are almost ALL for LePage.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: cinyc on July 06, 2010, 10:12:52 PM
In general, the sleeper House seats are in the suburbs of the Northeast and Midwest where the incumbent doesn't know that he or she is in trouble and won't campaign much.  Most of these incumbents do have large war chests, which they are already spending on something - though I have no idea really what.

In the NY portion of the NYC metro area, you're not talking about NY-01 (Bishop), NY-13 (McMahon) or NY-19 (Hall) - all of whose incumbents should know their races will likely be close and run for their lives.  You're talking about the next tier of candidates - NY-02 (Israel), NY-04 (McCarthy) and NY-18 (Lowey) - all of whom are real longshots to lose, but might not sense that they may be in trouble.  The good news for Israel and Lowey is that their potential Republican opponents are underwhelming and underfunded.  

In Connecticut, CT-04 (Himes) and CT-05 (Murphy) should be somewhat competitive  - and the incumbents probably already know it.  CT-02 (Courtney) is probably the only sleeper CT district that I could possibly see flip, depending on who ends up winning the Republican nomination.  It won't be Rob Simmons, who would have given Courtney a real run for his money in Simmons' old district.  Calling CT-02 a sleeper may be a bit of a stretch given that Courtney barely beat Simmons in 2006, though.

In Massachusetts, the only seat on anyone's radar is the open MA-10.    It's really hard to see any other MA seat flipping, but MA-05 (Tsongas) or MA-06 (Tierney) would probably be the next most likely.  If you assume Brown outperformed in MA-03 because it included his hometown, he performed next best in MA-02, MA-05 and MA-06. Republicans have always hoped Tsongas was vulnerable, though it has never happened.  In MA-06, with his own money included, Hudak almost raised as much money as Tierney in the first quarter, but Tierney has a huge warchest.  None of the MA-02 candidates seems impressive or capable of fundraising or winning.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Dan the Roman on July 06, 2010, 10:48:28 PM
In general, the sleeper House seats are in the suburbs of the Northeast and Midwest where the incumbent doesn't know that he or she is in trouble and won't campaign much.  Most of these incumbents do have large war chests, which they are already spending on something - though I have no idea really what.

In the NY portion of the NYC metro area, you're not talking about NY-01 (Bishop), NY-13 (McMahon) or NY-19 (Hall) - all of whose incumbents should know their races will likely be close and run for their lives.  You're talking about the next tier of candidates - NY-02 (Israel), NY-04 (McCarthy) and NY-18 (Lowey) - all of whom are real longshots to lose, but might not sense that they may be in trouble.  The good news for Israel and Lowey is that their potential Republican opponents are underwhelming and underfunded.  

In Connecticut, CT-04 (Himes) and CT-05 (Murphy) should be somewhat competitive  - and the incumbents probably already know it.  CT-02 (Courtney) is probably the only sleeper CT district that I could possibly see flip, depending on who ends up winning the Republican nomination.  It won't be Rob Simmons, who would have given Courtney a real run for his money in Simmons' old district.  Calling CT-02 a sleeper may be a bit of a stretch given that Courtney barely beat Simmons in 2006, though.

In Massachusetts, the only seat on anyone's radar is the open MA-10.    It's really hard to see any other MA seat flipping, but MA-05 (Tsongas) or MA-06 (Tierney) would probably be the next most likely.  If you assume Brown outperformed in MA-03 because it included his hometown, he performed next best in MA-02, MA-05 and MA-06. Republicans have always hoped Tsongas was vulnerable, though it has never happened.  In MA-06, with his own money included, Hudak almost raised as much money as Tierney in the first quarter, but Tierney has a huge warchest.  None of the MA-02 candidates seems impressive or capable of fundraising or winning.

MA-06, and maybe MA-02. Tierney is a much stronger incumbent than Tsongas, and Meas is a better candidate than Hudak. Neal would have been gone with a decent GOP candidate. Major recruiting failure for the GOP.

ME-01 is a weak and unpopular Democrat v. a weak Republican. In a low-info race where Pingree is on auto-pilot, she could get into real trouble. If she engages though, Scontras is probably way far to the right. Which to be fair, is less bad than being a lunatic and having by-weekly staff turnover, which is Hudak's problem.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Mr.Phips on July 07, 2010, 01:20:46 AM
Pingree's been outraising her opponent about 3-1 since he got in the race, and has $266k on hand to his $40k.
A wall of cash can't stop a wave.

A wave is not going to send a barely funded teabagger candidate to Congress from a liberal district like ME-01.  That would be like a no-name Democrat with no money beating Jim McCrery in LA-04 in 2006.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Dgov on July 07, 2010, 02:28:59 AM
Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 07, 2010, 07:05:53 AM
Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.

Yes, I'm sure this crowd is going to play well in a district that went double-digits for Kerry and Obama:

http://www.cflow4azcd7.com/
http://www.ruth4az.com/
http://www.myers4congress.com/
http://www.josephsweeneyforcongress.org/
http://www.robertwilsonforcongress.com/


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on July 07, 2010, 09:07:44 AM
CA-37 of course guys. azmagic and redcommander said it was winnable!


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: minionofmidas on July 07, 2010, 11:07:06 AM
http://www.josephsweeneyforcongress.org/
Wow.

Of course, have you ever seen this page (http://www.americanpatrol.com/REFERENCE/Grijalva-Raul.html[/url)? Been around for ages.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Mr.Phips on July 07, 2010, 01:00:42 PM
Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.

You gotta be kidding me.  That district is majority Hispanic and Hispanics strongly oppose the law.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: nhmagic on July 07, 2010, 05:21:59 PM
CA-37 of course guys. azmagic and redcommander said it was winnable!
I didnt say it was winnable, I posed a hypothetical.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: The Mikado on July 07, 2010, 07:08:54 PM
Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.
http://www.josephsweeneyforcongress.org/

Holy Hell, is he running in 1998 or 2010?


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Lunar on July 07, 2010, 07:11:24 PM
Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.

I never realized his district was only D+6, he's such an outspoken member of the Progressive Caucus.

But his district is majority-Hispanic and less than 40% white.  McCain got less than 42% in '08 and he had a home-state advantage here.  How many districts in which McCain got less than 42% in are vulnerable?  McCain did about as well in this district as he did in the entire state of New Jersey.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Hash on July 07, 2010, 07:20:11 PM
Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.
http://www.josephsweeneyforcongress.org/

Holy Hell, is he running in 1998 or 2010?

quote:
"It really isn't funny letting a Hispanic Politician make a TAX Monkey out of you!"

wtf


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Lunar on July 07, 2010, 07:21:22 PM
Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.
http://www.josephsweeneyforcongress.org/

Holy Hell, is he running in 1998 or 2010?

quote:
"It really isn't funny letting a Hispanic Politician make a TAX Monkey out of you!"

wtf

ofmg, that's like the LEADING quote on his website!!

No one like that has a chance in a majority [not plurality] Hispanic district.

I looked at the animated clock on his website, I thought it was like a debt counter like many websites us, but no, it's actually a second-accurate military-format 24-hour clock.  What purpose does that serve?


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Lunar on July 07, 2010, 07:24:08 PM
omfg, has anyone on his staff even seen the website?  Click on the numbered tabs featured in the menu navigation.  

Or check out his fundraising graphic, where he's raised $0 out of $0 dollars and apparently he ends his fundraising 21 days after the 2010 general election is finished, November 23rd


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Lunar on July 07, 2010, 07:28:11 PM
omfg, and look at the picture they use for him in the upper right!  It looks like an attack website but IT'S NOT

I tried to get to his biography page, but it was a corrupted .pdf file. 


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Lunar on July 07, 2010, 07:30:39 PM
I think this is a better challenger:

http://www.ruth4az.com/

Not only does she have a website that's only bad instead of god-awful-disgusting, but her website has this important graphic on the homepage:

()


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: redcommander on July 07, 2010, 07:34:57 PM
CA-37 of course guys. azmagic and redcommander said it was winnable!

You tell me when was the last time Republicans put up a candidate as strong as Star Parker there? I said it's possible. Richardson has a bunch of ethics issues and represents a district with about 25% unemployment and a Republican candidate who could actually appeal to the district's voters.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Lunar on July 07, 2010, 07:38:56 PM
CA-37 of course guys. azmagic and redcommander said it was winnable!

You tell me when was the last time Republicans put up a candidate as strong as Star Parker there? I said it's possible. Richardson has a bunch of ethics issues and represents a district with about 25% unemployment and a Republican candidate who could actually appeal to the district's voters.

D+26%.  That's more Democratic that Joseph Cao's district, which he only barely won because he was in an extremely low-turnout runoff election against an opponent who was caught with $30,000 in his freezer.



Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 07, 2010, 07:54:54 PM
omfg, has anyone on his staff even seen the website?  Click on the numbered tabs featured in the menu navigation.  

I highly doubt he has any paid staff. Ruth McClung is the only Republican in AZ-07 that's filed any FEC reports, and she's raised all of $23k (over 9 months, and a lot of it looks like in-kinds). She does have a campaign manager, who appears to be donating her time. Her husband appears to have done the website (also donated).


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Torie on July 07, 2010, 08:51:32 PM
CA-37 of course guys. azmagic and redcommander said it was winnable!

You tell me when was the last time Republicans put up a candidate as strong as Star Parker there? I said it's possible. Richardson has a bunch of ethics issues and represents a district with about 25% unemployment and a Republican candidate who could actually appeal to the district's voters.


Putting aside everything else, blacks make up about 40% of the electorate I would guess.  So when you find some poll with the GOP making inroads among blacks, get back to me.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Lunar on July 07, 2010, 08:55:17 PM
omfg, has anyone on his staff even seen the website?  Click on the numbered tabs featured in the menu navigation.  

I highly doubt he has any paid staff. Ruth McClung is the only Republican in AZ-07 that's filed any FEC reports, and she's raised all of $23k (over 9 months, and a lot of it looks like in-kinds). She does have a campaign manager, who appears to be donating her time. Her husband appears to have done the website (also donated).

Well, needless to say, no one will with a Congressional Seat without staff or a horribly scandal-tarred opponent. 


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Lunar on July 07, 2010, 08:57:59 PM
CA-37 of course guys. azmagic and redcommander said it was winnable!

You tell me when was the last time Republicans put up a candidate as strong as Star Parker there? I said it's possible. Richardson has a bunch of ethics issues and represents a district with about 25% unemployment and a Republican candidate who could actually appeal to the district's voters.


Putting aside everything else, blacks make up about 40% of the electorate I would guess.  So when you find some poll with the GOP making inroads among blacks, get back to me.

Not sure about the electorate, but they are 25% of the demographics of the district per the last census.  It's less than 17% white though, so there's no mathematical way possible for a Republican to win that district.  Joseph Cao's district in Louisiana is about twice as white


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Torie on July 07, 2010, 09:04:40 PM
CA-37 of course guys. azmagic and redcommander said it was winnable!

You tell me when was the last time Republicans put up a candidate as strong as Star Parker there? I said it's possible. Richardson has a bunch of ethics issues and represents a district with about 25% unemployment and a Republican candidate who could actually appeal to the district's voters.


Putting aside everything else, blacks make up about 40% of the electorate I would guess.  So when you find some poll with the GOP making inroads among blacks, get back to me.

Not sure about the electorate, but they are 25% of the demographics of the district per the last census.  It's less than 17% white though, so there's no mathematical way possible for a Republican to win that district.  Joseph Cao's district in Louisiana is about twice as white

The black voting percentage is substantially higher than 25%, since Hispanics tend not to vote much, particularly in this district, where the Hispanic neighborhoods are mostly downscale, and the Asians there would be about in the same category, more or less (outside the Japanese in Gardena maybe). It is no accident that blacks still win in this district in Dem primaries. 40% strikes me as a reasonable guess. And among the whites, there are a considerable number of gays down in Long Beach.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: cinyc on July 07, 2010, 10:13:27 PM
I can't think of many sleeper House seats in SoCal. 

I suppose Loretta Sanchez's CA-47 will be on the Republicans' radar, as it always is, and her opponent, Assemblyman Van Tran, seems to be relatively well-funded for a Republican challenger in SoCal - but Sanchez always seems to win by large margins, despite the hype. 

CA-51 (Filner) would be a real longshot that's probably not on anyone's radar.  His opponent is a retired Marine with a good backstory - but at least so far, little cash.   Unemployment is really high in parts of the district, though, which could be worth a few points.  But I doubt Popaditch can pull it out.

Every other SoCal district currently represented by a Democrat seems too Gerrymandered to possibly flip.  And even if they weren't Gerrymandered, the Republican who had some money lost the primary in CA-27 (Sherman), and the Republican opponents in CA-29 (Schiff) and CA-36 (Harmon) don't seem to be well-funded.  All three districts voted for Schwartzenegger, but have PVIs in the low teens - and probably are not winnable by Republicans on the federal level.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Torie on July 07, 2010, 10:17:52 PM
CA 47 is the only one vaguely possible, as a sleeper seat. I notice that Whitman is only running about 10% behind Brown with Hispanics in the Field poll, and Hispanics in OC tend to be more conservative anyway, than those up the road in LA. The Asians in this district tend to be Vietnamese, and heavily GOP.

But then Linda tends to avoid trying to be a flame thrower.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Dgov on July 07, 2010, 10:40:03 PM
Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.

You gotta be kidding me.  That district is majority Hispanic and Hispanics strongly oppose the law.

Umm, no.  In fact, significantly more Hispanics want a version of this law in their state than voted for McCain in 08. (37 compared to 29).

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1460&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0

And the law has had almost no change in partisan voting trends for any ethnic group, despite how many people want to shout from the bleachers that this will "Doom the Republican's chances of Hispanic support"

http://laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=358597&CategoryId=12395

So throw in that this district covers the Pinal country region the Drug cartels have more or less taken over by force, and that he's been calling for people to boycott his own state over the issue, and i certainly see this as a sleeper pickup for the Republicans in 2010.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Sbane on July 07, 2010, 10:57:25 PM
CA 47 is the only one vaguely possible, as a sleeper seat. I notice that Whitman is only running about 10% behind Brown with Hispanics in the Field poll, and Hispanics in OC tend to be more conservative anyway, than those up the road in LA. The Asians in this district tend to be Vietnamese, and heavily GOP.

But then Linda tends to avoid trying to be a flame thrower.

The last sentence is the reason why she won't lose. If she was a liberal, she might have some problems but she legislates as a moderate Democrat. This is a district full of moderate Hispanics (maybe conservative on social issues but certainly not on things like health care for example) and a bunch of hyper Republican Vietnamese (but not necessarily amongst the younger, more Americanized generation). If the Republicans ran a moderate Hispanic here they might have a chance. But I don't think a moderate will make it through a Republican primary for at least the next 10 years (hopefully they will learn their lesson by that time).


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on July 07, 2010, 11:00:50 PM
CA-37 of course guys. azmagic and redcommander said it was winnable!

You tell me when was the last time Republicans put up a candidate as strong as Star Parker there? I said it's possible. Richardson has a bunch of ethics issues and represents a district with about 25% unemployment and a Republican candidate who could actually appeal to the district's voters.

Star Parker is not anymore a strong candidate than Michael Moore would be if he moved to AL-06 and ran there. Being a far right activist is not an advantage in that district, not that it really matters what anyone is if they have an "R" next to their name. It's already been established above that seat is essentially mathematically unwinnable. I think it's worth noting that in Cao's seat black turnout fell through the floor in the runoff round where Cao won.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: cinyc on July 08, 2010, 12:30:49 AM
You can cross NY-18 off of the list, now that the self-funded guy with some money who had a small chance of knocking off Nita Lowey announced he's out of the race.  The Republicans are putting up the guy who got crushed last cycle - and he'll lose again by double digits.

To finish California, in NorCal, CA-11 (McNerry) ought to be competitive and isn't really much of a sleeper since it is a R+1 district that Bush won in 2004.  The only NorCal sleeper may be CA-18 (Cardoza), a D+4 district in the Central Valley - though I don't have much faith in a candidate whose website is down, even if he can self-fund to some extent.

There actually may be more Republican incumbents in danger in California than Democrats.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Sbane on July 08, 2010, 01:18:12 AM
You can cross NY-18 off of the list, now that the self-funded guy with some money who had a small chance of knocking off Nita Lowey announced he's out of the race.  The Republicans are putting up the guy who got crushed last cycle - and he'll lose again by double digits.

To finish California, in NorCal, CA-11 (McNerry) ought to be competitive and isn't really much of a sleeper since it is a R+1 district that Bush won in 2004.  The only NorCal sleeper may be CA-18 (Cardoza), a D+4 district in the Central Valley - though I don't have much faith in a candidate whose website is down, even if he can self-fund to some extent.

There actually may be more Republican incumbents in danger in California than Democrats.

CA-11 is certainly no sleeper. Republicans have a good chance of picking it up (although it's less than 50% imo).

CA-18 is another one of those moderate Hispanic heavy districts that Republicans should be able to pick up in theory. But you need a good candidate to win this sort of district. Another thing going in Cardoza's favor is the issue of delta water pumping restrictions becoming less of a concern now that we have had a pretty wet winter.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: redcommander on July 08, 2010, 01:25:58 AM
You would think that with a Diverse statewide ticket, the Republican Party in California could have gotten some more viable and diverse candidates to run.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: cinyc on July 08, 2010, 01:39:04 AM
You would think that with a Diverse statewide ticket, the Republican Party in California could have gotten some more viable and diverse candidates to run.

Blatant Gerrymandering makes very few seats held by Democrats competitive in California.  CA-23 (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/maps/111th.cgi?CAH23) is a joke, almost on par with FL-22 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:FL22_109.PNG) and 23.

I'd have added the Fresno-area's CA-20 (Costa) to the list of possible sleepers if the Republican candidate did a slightly better job at fundraising and didn't face a primary battle.  It's a Hispanic-majority D+5 district that Schwartzenegger won - winnable in a wave election in theory, but probably not in practice.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on July 08, 2010, 01:58:53 AM
Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.
http://www.josephsweeneyforcongress.org/

Holy Hell, is he running in 1998 or 2010?

His site links to this page (http://www.thelandofthefree.net/conservativeopinion/2006/06/07/the-2006-election-frontrunner-is-none-of-the-above/). So I believe the answer is 2006.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Lunar on July 09, 2010, 07:55:57 AM
I think this is a better challenger:

http://www.ruth4az.com/

Not only does she have a website that's only bad instead of god-awful-disgusting, but her website has this important graphic on the homepage:

()

BREAKING NEWS: The Twitter icon for "Phuket Gay Resort" uses the SAME ICON

http://twitter.com/PhuketGayResort


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Ameriplan on July 10, 2010, 07:33:34 AM
Do I dare say PA-13?  Nah, Dee Adcock is not going to get attention from the NRCC.  However, I have seen a few lawn signs for him.

Lol.

I'd have to say Altmire's seat, but he is pretty conservative.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Ameriplan on July 10, 2010, 07:36:45 AM
I think this is a better challenger:

http://www.ruth4az.com/

Not only does she have a website that's only bad instead of god-awful-disgusting, but her website has this important graphic on the homepage:

()

Quote from: Wikipedia
50.6% Hispanic

Erm, no.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: TeePee4Prez on July 11, 2010, 12:06:01 PM
Do I dare say PA-13?  Nah, Dee Adcock is not going to get attention from the NRCC.  However, I have seen a few lawn signs for him.

Lol.

I'd have to say Altmire's seat, but he is pretty conservative.

Altmire wouldn't be considered "sleeper" for it is known to be conservative to begin with and a conservative Dem is representing the district.  It would however, take a severe wave for Allyson Schwartz to get knocked off in the 13th, but the candidate is unimpressive.  If Bruce Castor were to run, I'd put this on Watch List at least, possibly Likely Dem.  I would think the 7th and 8th would have long flipped back before this is even a possibility as well.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Ameriplan on July 11, 2010, 12:13:14 PM
Do I dare say PA-13?  Nah, Dee Adcock is not going to get attention from the NRCC.  However, I have seen a few lawn signs for him.

Lol.

I'd have to say Altmire's seat, but he is pretty conservative.

Altmire wouldn't be considered "sleeper" for it is known to be conservative to begin with and a conservative Dem is representing the district.  It would however, take a severe wave for Allyson Schwartz to get knocked off in the 13th, but the candidate is unimpressive.  If Bruce Castor were to run, I'd put this on Watch List at least, possibly Likely Dem.  I would think the 7th and 8th would have long flipped back before this is even a possibility as well.

Possible. However, with a Cook PVI of D+7, a lot of craziness has to happen before a Republican is elected.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Rococo4 on July 11, 2010, 01:18:42 PM
Bill Johnson vs. Charlie Wilson in OH-6


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: TeePee4Prez on July 11, 2010, 01:22:35 PM
Do I dare say PA-13?  Nah, Dee Adcock is not going to get attention from the NRCC.  However, I have seen a few lawn signs for him.

Lol.

I'd have to say Altmire's seat, but he is pretty conservative.

Altmire wouldn't be considered "sleeper" for it is known to be conservative to begin with and a conservative Dem is representing the district.  It would however, take a severe wave for Allyson Schwartz to get knocked off in the 13th, but the candidate is unimpressive.  If Bruce Castor were to run, I'd put this on Watch List at least, possibly Likely Dem.  I would think the 7th and 8th would have long flipped back before this is even a possibility as well.

Possible. However, with a Cook PVI of D+7, a lot of craziness has to happen before a Republican is elected.

Another one I forgot: PA-15.  But it would have to be an average or good Democratic year.  Don Cunningham should have ran in 2006 or 08, not now.  PA-6 the same thing.  The Dems ran a dud in 2008, who almost won anyway, when that was definitely the year with Obama winning the district by 18 points.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Ameriplan on July 11, 2010, 02:02:15 PM
Do I dare say PA-13?  Nah, Dee Adcock is not going to get attention from the NRCC.  However, I have seen a few lawn signs for him.

Lol.

I'd have to say Altmire's seat, but he is pretty conservative.

Altmire wouldn't be considered "sleeper" for it is known to be conservative to begin with and a conservative Dem is representing the district.  It would however, take a severe wave for Allyson Schwartz to get knocked off in the 13th, but the candidate is unimpressive.  If Bruce Castor were to run, I'd put this on Watch List at least, possibly Likely Dem.  I would think the 7th and 8th would have long flipped back before this is even a possibility as well.

Possible. However, with a Cook PVI of D+7, a lot of craziness has to happen before a Republican is elected.

Another one I forgot: PA-15.  But it would have to be an average or good Democratic year.  Don Cunningham should have ran in 2006 or 08, not now.  PA-6 the same thing.  The Dems ran a dud in 2008, who almost won anyway, when that was definitely the year with Obama winning the district by 18 points.

My home district :) . Yeah, you're right Dems should have run better but Dent's safe for another cycle. As for PA-6, it's probably the same deal. only D+4 in a tough year, that 4 is erased.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: TeePee4Prez on July 11, 2010, 03:47:38 PM
Do I dare say PA-13?  Nah, Dee Adcock is not going to get attention from the NRCC.  However, I have seen a few lawn signs for him.

Lol.

I'd have to say Altmire's seat, but he is pretty conservative.

Altmire wouldn't be considered "sleeper" for it is known to be conservative to begin with and a conservative Dem is representing the district.  It would however, take a severe wave for Allyson Schwartz to get knocked off in the 13th, but the candidate is unimpressive.  If Bruce Castor were to run, I'd put this on Watch List at least, possibly Likely Dem.  I would think the 7th and 8th would have long flipped back before this is even a possibility as well.

Possible. However, with a Cook PVI of D+7, a lot of craziness has to happen before a Republican is elected.

Another one I forgot: PA-15.  But it would have to be an average or good Democratic year.  Don Cunningham should have ran in 2006 or 08, not now.  PA-6 the same thing.  The Dems ran a dud in 2008, who almost won anyway, when that was definitely the year with Obama winning the district by 18 points.

My home district :) . Yeah, you're right Dems should have run better but Dent's safe for another cycle. As for PA-6, it's probably the same deal. only D+4 in a tough year, that 4 is erased.

I've spent a lot of time in the Lehigh Valley at one point.  True swing district.  Hard to tell what will happen.  Lots of unions there, but lots of exurbs (NYC/Philly).  Voted for Toomey and Obama.  Go figure.  I agree with you on Dent- he's safe, but only for this cycle.

PA-6 will be a Dem district if kept intact at some point when Gerlach retires.  I'd still have it Lean GOP, but that's only considering the cycle.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on July 14, 2010, 09:27:20 AM
Bill Johnson vs. Charlie Wilson in OH-6

I doubt it, Charlie Wilson is (like Strickland) quite popular in that district. 


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Vepres on September 06, 2010, 12:52:00 AM
Bumping this because there will probably be more of these.

Here are some that have been on mind (I haven't looked at the districts specifically, mind you), what do you guys think? (some are very out there, I know, but that is sort of the point, no?)

CA-10
CT-02
IA-02
Either Maine district
MN-07
MS-04
NY-27
OH-06
TX-27
TX-28
UT-02
VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)
WA-06

I'm not saying any will flip, or even be within single digits, I'm just throwing some ideas out there, as I suspect there will be a few surprises on election night given the nature of this election.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Sbane on September 06, 2010, 01:22:44 AM
CA-10 isn't flipping. If Garamendi can win with double digits in a special election, I think he should be fine in a general election. This would be something like the 100-110th seat to flip.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on September 06, 2010, 02:09:32 AM
In MN-07 there was a nasty primary between a complete joke candidate and the complete joke candidate who got clobbered in 2008. The complete joke candidate who didn't run last time run, so the joke from 2008 is going to run again as an independent. That itself doesn't help the GOP's chances.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: redcommander on September 06, 2010, 03:30:07 AM
I would say WA-1 and WA-9 should be on the sleeper seat radar. If the wave is as big as in 94, Washington state should be extremely vulnerable for Democrats. Haven't seen any polling out from those districts yet, but the challengers appear to be viable and have the funding to be able to pull out wins.

WA-1 James Watkins http://www.watkinsforcongress.com/

WA-9 Dick Muri http://www.dickmuri.com/





Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Dgov on September 06, 2010, 03:39:08 AM
TX-27 should be on the radar.  It's a Hispanic-majority district, but Ortiz only won 56% there in 2008 despite being a 28-year incumbent, and it only voted 50% for Obama in 2008.  Bush also won the district substantially.  No idea about the challenger though.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 06, 2010, 07:08:07 AM
Bumping this because there will probably be more of these.

Here are some that have been on mind (I haven't looked at the districts specifically, mind you), what do you guys think? (some are very out there, I know, but that is sort of the point, no?)

CA-10
CT-02
IA-02
Either Maine district
MN-07
MS-04
NY-27
OH-06
TX-27
TX-28
UT-02
VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)
WA-06

I'm not saying any will flip, or even be within single digits, I'm just throwing some ideas out there, as I suspect there will be a few surprises on election night given the nature of this election.

MS-04 and OH-06 have been on both Sam Spade's and my lists for a while now. The challengers in most of those other districts haven't raised any significant money. I'm sure there will be a couple surprises on election night, since there always are, but at this point I think the field is pretty well set.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: nhmagic on September 06, 2010, 10:00:06 AM
Bumping this because there will probably be more of these.

Here are some that have been on mind (I haven't looked at the districts specifically, mind you), what do you guys think? (some are very out there, I know, but that is sort of the point, no?)

CA-10
CT-02
IA-02
Either Maine district
MN-07
MS-04
NY-27
OH-06
TX-27
TX-28
UT-02
VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)
WA-06

I'm not saying any will flip, or even be within single digits, I'm just throwing some ideas out there, as I suspect there will be a few surprises on election night given the nature of this election.
Pingree has a ton of money and her opponent doesn't.  Turnout will be decent for Rs because of LePage on the ticket and working class Mainers are going to be coming out in droves to vote against the dems - however, Scontras isn't making any waves primarily because he's out of money.  Some good attention from say Scott Brown or Chris Christie might help - ME's not too far for either of them. I dont think he'll beat her though.
Michaud on the other hand would be vulnerable if Rs took some interest in the race. LePage being on the ticket will definitely help in northern ME.  Jason Levesque needs cash badly and he's got to find a way to do that on the quick.  This state needs some polling done.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Meeker on September 06, 2010, 10:09:18 AM
Bumping this because there will probably be more of these.

Here are some that have been on mind (I haven't looked at the districts specifically, mind you), what do you guys think? (some are very out there, I know, but that is sort of the point, no?)

CA-10
CT-02
IA-02
Either Maine district
MN-07
MS-04
NY-27
OH-06
TX-27
TX-28
UT-02
VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)
WA-06

I'm not saying any will flip, or even be within single digits, I'm just throwing some ideas out there, as I suspect there will be a few surprises on election night given the nature of this election.

Dicks got 58% in 1994. Anyone under the age of 52 in this district has never seen another Democratic nominee for Congress on the ballot. He's going nowhere.

If you want "sleeper" Washington districts then go with WA-09 followed by WA-01. But considering the pitiful fundraising by Smith and Inslee's opponents I don't see how those are going to be competitive either.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Vepres on September 06, 2010, 10:14:37 AM
Bumping this because there will probably be more of these.

Here are some that have been on mind (I haven't looked at the districts specifically, mind you), what do you guys think? (some are very out there, I know, but that is sort of the point, no?)

CA-10
CT-02
IA-02
Either Maine district
MN-07
MS-04
NY-27
OH-06
TX-27
TX-28
UT-02
VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)
WA-06

I'm not saying any will flip, or even be within single digits, I'm just throwing some ideas out there, as I suspect there will be a few surprises on election night given the nature of this election.

Dicks got 58% in 1994. Anyone under the age of 52 in this district has never seen another Democratic nominee for Congress on the ballot. He's going nowhere.

If you want "sleeper" Washington districts then go with WA-09 followed by WA-01. But considering the pitiful fundraising by Smith and Inslee's opponents I don't see how those are going to be competitive either.

Oh, okay. I was looking at the PVIs mainly.

Yeah, I don't see either WA-09 or WA-01 being close, but Washington did vote in a bizarre way in the last Republican wave.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 06, 2010, 10:57:59 AM
I'd love to know where these magical coattails in Maine are coming from, considering LePage is under 40% in the polls.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Hash on September 06, 2010, 12:14:30 PM
VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)

rofl


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Joe Republic on September 06, 2010, 12:30:18 PM
VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)

rofl

Yeah, the guy that the Republicans also nominated to run for re-election in 2008 is certainly one to watch this year.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Vepres on September 06, 2010, 12:50:49 PM
VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)

rofl

Yeah, the guy that the Republicans also nominated to run for re-election in 2008 is certainly one to watch this year.

I really don't follow...


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Alcon on September 06, 2010, 01:21:50 PM
VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)

rofl

Yeah, the guy that the Republicans also nominated to run for re-election in 2008 is certainly one to watch this year.

I really don't follow...

Welch got the Democratic and Republican nominations in Vermont in 2008.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on September 06, 2010, 01:32:55 PM
And I'm sure that this guy (http://www.beaudryforcongress.org) is really going to appeal to Vermont.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: redcommander on September 07, 2010, 12:33:39 AM
Indiana 7th could also be another one. The district swung heavily to Obama, but Carson does have a decent challenger, and his mother didn't rack up huge margins in the district when she ran.

http://www.drmarvinscottforcongress.com/


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Dgov on September 07, 2010, 03:55:27 AM
Indiana 7th could also be another one. The district swung heavily to Obama, but Carson does have a decent challenger, and his mother didn't rack up huge margins in the district when she ran.

http://www.drmarvinscottforcongress.com/

Considering the District takes up most of Marion County, which Bush both Narrowly lost and Narrowly won in his 2 elections, I'd have to say you're right that this is at least on the radar.  The problem is that the parts of Marion county not in the district are between 70-80% Republican, which drives up the Dem margins in the district, and that the area has been trending Democratic for some time now.  Carson won 65% of the Vote here in 2008, and Cook has it rated as D + 14, which is roughly on par with Cuyahoga county in Ohio.  Republican's aren't winning here anytime soon.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 07, 2010, 06:51:00 AM
Julia Carson never really campaigned much; she had a lot of health problems while she was in Congress. She'd always manage to win, though.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 07, 2010, 07:02:42 AM
I think Niki Tsongas may be sitting in one of those "sleeper" seats.


Title: Re: "Sleeper" House Seats
Post by: tmthforu94 on September 07, 2010, 07:06:12 AM
Indiana 7th could also be another one. The district swung heavily to Obama, but Carson does have a decent challenger, and his mother didn't rack up huge margins in the district when she ran.

http://www.drmarvinscottforcongress.com/
Marvin Scott isn't that great of a candidate, though it will help him that's he black. He got slaughtered by Bayh in 2004, only garnering a little under 40% of the vote. He may hold Carson below 60%, but barring any major gaffes, this should easily stay in the Democratic column.