Title: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town Post by: homelycooking on July 13, 2010, 08:18:17 PM Beautiful map, not-so-beautiful result.
http://a.imageshack.us/img806/7191/maineprop12009.png Wording on this question is confusing. "Yes" is a vote to repeal gay marriage, and "No" is a vote to let the law stand. Light Green: 50-60% No Bright Green: 60-70% No Dark Green: 70+% No Light Red: 50-60% Yes Bright Red: 60-70% Yes Dark Red: 70+% Yes I think I'll do some more Maine referenda maps... Title: Re: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town Post by: Holmes on July 13, 2010, 08:35:21 PM You would think the results would have been less close by looking at the map. It definitely highlights No on 1's downfall, which was outreach in central Maine. Had they focused on Lewiston and Augusta as much as Portland and the York region, it would have been different.
Not to mention, if Maine gets a sh**t Republican governor this year, there won't be another shot at it for a while. Title: Re: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town Post by: Lunar on July 13, 2010, 11:01:42 PM You would think the results would have been less close by looking at the map. It definitely highlights No on 1's downfall, which was outreach in central Maine. Had they focused on Lewiston and Augusta as much as Portland and the York region, it would have been different. Not to mention, if Maine gets a sh**t Republican governor this year, there won't be another shot at it for a while. My impression of the campaign defending gay marriage in Maine that it was much tighter and better organized than the Prop 8 folks in CA -. I wasn't aware of the ins and outs, but the TV ads produced in Maine were among some of the tightest and well targeted I've ever seen regarding the issue, for example. From what I read, their organization seemed very spot on too. Right until the end I sincerely believed that their organizational strength was going to pull them across the finish line It's just a hard issue to win on referendum -- for now, will be different by 2012 & beyond Title: Re: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town Post by: RI on July 14, 2010, 01:51:27 AM Hey homelycooking, I like your maps a lot, but is there any chance you could use the Atlas coloring system? I would love to see this map with a full color scale.
Title: Re: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town Post by: Dan the Roman on July 14, 2010, 02:10:54 AM You would think the results would have been less close by looking at the map. It definitely highlights No on 1's downfall, which was outreach in central Maine. Had they focused on Lewiston and Augusta as much as Portland and the York region, it would have been different. Not to mention, if Maine gets a sh**t Republican governor this year, there won't be another shot at it for a while. My impression of the campaign defending gay marriage in Maine that it was much tighter and better organized than the Prop 8 folks in CA -. I wasn't aware of the ins and outs, but the TV ads produced in Maine were among some of the tightest and well targeted I've ever seen regarding the issue, for example. From what I read, their organization seemed very spot on too. Right until the end I sincerely believed that their organizational strength was going to pull them across the finish line It's just a hard issue to win on referendum -- for now, will be different by 2012 & beyond They lost it all in the last week. They stupidly filed a complaint against a guidance counselor for appearing in a Yes ad, and not advocating for the ban, but saying that it would be taught in schools. He was suspended from his job, and the newspapers for the last week were dominated by stories about the No side wanting to fire everyone who disagrees with them as well as the conversation being about homosexuality in the schools. The Gay rights groups have to get it that the demographics are destiny arguments, as much as they make them feel better, are offensive to a large number of people, including those who as a policy matter want equality. By fighting it as a moral issue, but treating dissent as evil, they are worrying a large number of voters that their agenda is not legal but cultural. And the problem is it is. I get tired of people complaining about the Prop 8 ads lying. The ads for the gay marriage bans in Michigan lied about the impact on potential domestic partnerships. The problem with the California ads about kids being taught about gay marriage is that they were true, and the No campaign had no response when that became apparent. The reason I think Marriage is necessary is that 70% of the law is presumption IE. if someone is married they are presumed to be next of kin, presumed to have power of attorney. That resumption comes not from the law but fromthe same 6000 years of history anti-gay marriage advocates want to protect. You may nominally have all the same rights with civil unions, but but if you have to go to court to 50% of the time to have them recognized then equality is nominal.\| Its why I hate the moral argument. By making it about morals, you seed the high ground. The problem with separate but equal is not that separate is inherently wrong, but that separate cannot be equal until we have reached a point of acceptance at which the issue is moot anyway. Title: Re: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town Post by: homelycooking on July 14, 2010, 11:23:17 AM Hey homelycooking, I like your maps a lot, but is there any chance you could use the Atlas coloring system? I would love to see this map with a full color scale. What's the colour scheme? I'll be glad to redo the map. Title: Re: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town Post by: cinyc on July 14, 2010, 01:55:53 PM You would think the results would have been less close by looking at the map. It definitely highlights No on 1's downfall, which was outreach in central Maine. Had they focused on Lewiston and Augusta as much as Portland and the York region, it would have been different. I'm not sure what you're talking about. Portland, Lewiston and Augusta are all in the same TV market. What I see is the liberal coast versus conservative interior pattern that we usually see in states like California - well, at least up to Bar Harbor. The Bangor and Presque Isle TV markets appear to have voted yes (Presque Isle is obvious; Bangor would require an analysis of coast vs. interior to be sure), while the Portland-Auburn DMA seems to have voted no. Title: Re: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town Post by: homelycooking on July 14, 2010, 02:15:51 PM The Bangor and Presque Isle TV markets appear to have voted yes (Presque Isle is obvious; Bangor would require an analysis of coast vs. interior to be sure), Bangor proper voted no along with Old Town and very liberal Orono. However, the yes votes from the surrounding very conservative towns (between Bangor and Dover-Foxcroft) almost certainly cancelled out Yes' margins in the cities. Title: Re: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town Post by: cinyc on July 14, 2010, 02:35:08 PM The Bangor and Presque Isle TV markets appear to have voted yes (Presque Isle is obvious; Bangor would require an analysis of coast vs. interior to be sure), Bangor proper voted no along with Old Town and very liberal Orono. However, the yes votes from the surrounding very conservative towns (between Bangor and Dover-Foxcroft) almost certainly cancelled out Yes' margins in the cities. We'd also have to factor in the coastal towns in the Bar Harbor area, which are in the Bangor TV market. It's Waldo, Hancock, Washington, Penobscot, Piscataquis and Somerset Counties. Edit: By my math based on the Bangor Daily News' numbers (http://www.bangordailynews.com/electionresults.html), Yes won the Bangor DMA with about 58% of the vote and Presque Isle DMA with 73%. No barely squeaked by in the Portland-Auburn DMA with 50.5%. What's the one town in Washington County that voted no? Inidian Township Indian Reservation? Princeton? Title: Re: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town Post by: homelycooking on July 14, 2010, 03:08:47 PM That's right, it's Indian Township.
The +70% towns in the Bangor Market are, in order of population, NO Orono 9958 Bar Harbor 4117 North Haven 374 Cranberry Isles 201 Isle Au Haut 57 total 14707 YES Lincoln 5059 East Millinocket 2376 Baileyville 2185 Corinna 1891 Medway 1858 Corinth 1715 Hartland 1660 Howland 1601 Palmyra 1488 St Albans 1400 Enfield 1388 Patten 1371 Sangerville 1219 Greenbush 1064 Charleston 1041 Mattawamkeag 1002 Princeton 990 Bradford 889 Danforth 827 Plymouth 811 Hudson 798 Frankfort 780 Etna 758 Harmony 756 Cutler 728 Garland 713 Beals 695 Lee 686 Parkman 626 Abbot 577 Moscow 572 Verona 558 Staceyville 555 Winn 503 Cambridge 445 Springfield 443 Ripley 434 Chester 433 Passadumkeag 431 Alexander 383 Burlington 322 Baring Plantation 308 Atkinson 306 Charlotte 295 Kingman Township 281 Vanceboro 256 Topsfield 244 Shirley 241 Mount Chase 233 Woodville 225 Prentiss Plantation 205 Lowell 194 Waltham 186 Carroll Plantation 172 Willimantic 164 Waite 132 Edinburg 126 Meddybemps 110 Aurora 109 Caratunk 84 Crawford 83 Webster Plantation 79 Brighton Plantation 74 Highland Plantation 59 Drew Plantation 57 Sebois Plantation 53 Osborn 47 Deblois 44 Beddington 36 Bowerbank 19 Kingsbury Plantation 4 total 48457 I think it's pretty certain that Yes prevailed in the Bangor area. Title: Re: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town Post by: RI on July 14, 2010, 03:18:19 PM Hey homelycooking, I like your maps a lot, but is there any chance you could use the Atlas coloring system? I would love to see this map with a full color scale. What's the colour scheme? I'll be glad to redo the map. This is the pallette I created and personally use: () (http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp131/rarohla/Colors-1.png) I made it from the one Dave provides, but it includes some colors he uses but doesn't have on his pallette: () Title: Re: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town Post by: homelycooking on July 14, 2010, 04:34:36 PM Thanks very much! Here's the map again.
http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/7191/maineprop12009.png Title: Re: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town Post by: Holmes on July 14, 2010, 06:49:22 PM You would think the results would have been less close by looking at the map. It definitely highlights No on 1's downfall, which was outreach in central Maine. Had they focused on Lewiston and Augusta as much as Portland and the York region, it would have been different. I'm not sure what you're talking about. Portland, Lewiston and Augusta are all in the same TV market. Is TV ads really all that matter in campaigns to you? I was talking about face-to-face community outreach and phonebanks compared to just advertising. Title: Re: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town Post by: cinyc on July 15, 2010, 01:25:12 PM You would think the results would have been less close by looking at the map. It definitely highlights No on 1's downfall, which was outreach in central Maine. Had they focused on Lewiston and Augusta as much as Portland and the York region, it would have been different. I'm not sure what you're talking about. Portland, Lewiston and Augusta are all in the same TV market. Is TV ads really all that matter in campaigns to you? I was talking about face-to-face community outreach and phonebanks compared to just advertising. The majority of spending on both sides was for TV and radio ads. So yes, TV and radio advertising does matter to me most. According to Ballotopedia (http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Maine_Same-Sex_Marriage_People%27s_Veto,_Question_1_%282009%29), the no side spent 3 times as much on TV and radio ads as they did on mailing and signs, and about 10 times as much as they did on "telephone use". The disparity for the yes side was even higher - 5 times more than mailing and signs and 1637 times as much as on "telephone use". Perhaps the nos should have been more respectful of the power of TV advertising and ditched the annoying call centers. Title: Re: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town Post by: Brittain33 on July 15, 2010, 02:56:15 PM The majority of spending on both sides was for TV and radio ads. So yes, TV and radio advertising does matter to me most. But why should the cost of an item directly correlate to its importance? Direct voter contact, preferably in person, is more effective than tv advertising in general, but it doesn't show up on your balance sheet because you have volunteers doing it instead of having to cut a check to the tv station. Similarly, ground organization on election day and the days leading up to it won't equate to advertising in dollar values alone. I think it's an especially big leap to say that the mix of campaign efforts, tv vs. call centers, was a factor here, given that it's not as if people have found any combination that leads to a pro-marriage equality outcome in a referendum yet. Title: Re: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town Post by: nclib on July 17, 2010, 04:50:25 PM Good work, homely. Do you or anyone else can make a list of the towns with the best percentage or numerical margins.
Title: Re: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town Post by: Jordan Gwendolyn on July 17, 2010, 09:34:48 PM I was actually thinking Q1 would go down, I actually thought the western interior would be closer to NH's "Live Free or Die" attitude, and the northern and eastern would be mitigated by Canada being nearby (where gender neutral marriage is a settled issue
Title: Re: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town Post by: homelycooking on July 17, 2010, 10:29:46 PM Good work, homely. Do you or anyone else can make a list of the towns with the best percentage or numerical margins. No problem. Top 10 Highest Percentages, YES Glenwood Plantation, 100.0% (5 total votes) Moro Plantation, 95.2% (21 total votes) Drew Plantation, 94.4% (18 total votes) Kingman Township, 93.5% (62 total votes) Reed Plantation, 90.5% (63 total votes) Crawford, 87.9% (58 total votes) Kingsbury Plantation, 87.5% (8 total votes) Hersey, 87.5% (24 total votes) Cary Plantation, 86.4% (88 total votes) Byron, 85.9% (71 total votes) Top 10 Highest Percentages, NO Isle au Haut, 88.4% (43 total votes) Cranberry Isles, 74.8% (115 total votes) Portland, 73.5% (27,353 total votes) Orono, 73.2% (4,276 total votes) North Haven, 72.0% (200 total votes) Bar Harbor, 71.0% (2,469 total votes) Cape Elizabeth, 68.4% (5,217 total votes) Ogunquit, 67.9% (757 total votes) Yarmouth, 66.4% (4,434 total votes) Mount Desert, 66.4% (1,116 total votes) Numerical margins will take a while. I'll do them tomorrow. Title: Re: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town Post by: homelycooking on July 18, 2010, 08:57:58 AM Top 10 Highest Vote Totals, YES
Lewiston 7420 Portland 7250 Bangor 5205 Auburn 4835 South Portland 4174 Scarborough 4162 Biddeford 4129 Augusta 3824 Windham 3807 Sanford 3722 Top 10 Highest Vote Totals, NO Portland 20103 South Portland 7391 Bangor 6149 Brunswick 5971 Lewiston 5193 Scarborough 4907 Auburn 4128 Saco 4069 Westbrook 3908 Biddeford 3697 Top 10 Highest Vote-Margins, YES Lewiston 2227 Caribou 1257 Presque Isle 1118 Lisbon 1073 Winslow 826 Houlton 822 Jay 813 Millinocket 802 Lincoln 780 Madawaska 772 Top 10 Highest Vote-Margins, NO Portland 12853 South Portland 3217 Brunswick 2485 Orono 1982 Cape Elizabeth 1915 Falmouth 1322 Freeport 1156 Bar Harbor 1039 Bangor 944 Wells 926 Kennebunk 825 ...is this what you were looking for? |