Talk Elections

With Bush back with a solid win and the GOP in firm control of both the senate and the house, what can be expected from the 2006 contests of course a lot depends on the economy and the state of the war on terror but this is the info that I have to hand at the moment on what races look competitive and who might be retiring…

Competitive Races.

Virginia: George Allen (R), if Mark Warner runs this could be very competitive race indeed.

Missouri: Jim Talent (R)

Pennsylvania: Rick Santorum (R) he’s stronger than many democrats like to believe though. 

Montana: Conrad Burns (R)

Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)

Florida : Bill Nelson (D)

Vermont: Jim Jeffords (I)

Maine: Olympia Snow (R), the only reason she’s here is if she faces a conservative primary challenge or spoiler candidate a-la Spectre.

Competitive Races, assuming the incumbent retires. 

Tennessee: Bill Frist (R)

Indiana: Richard Lugar (R)

West Virginia: Robert Byrd (D)

Mississippi: Trent Lott (R), this is only competitive if Mike Moore runs.

Texas: Kay Bailey Hutchison, it would very probably stay GOP, but if Hutchinson looks to make a bid for the governorship it could be competitive.

…that’s all I can see at the moment but its something to keep focused on for the next two years :)

It will be tough going for Santroum with Rendell up for re-election as well.....

I think Rick "you have no right to privacy" Santorum will be the main target in the 2006 election.

Look for the DNC to roll out Joe Hoeffel, Chris Heinz, or Bob Casey Jr to run against him.

New York: polls show Giuliani could defeat Hillary Clinton in 2006

I'd do anything to keep her from being the pres nominee in 2008. She would destroy all hopes we'd ever have of taking the presidency.

Bob Casey Jr. would probably stand the best chance.  Cuttin into Santorum's western PA appeal is about the only way to beat him.

It the other parties can get good challengers, these races might be interesting:

Dems
Debbie Stabenow, MI (she only won 49% last time)
Hillary Clinton, NY (only if Rudy runs)
Maria Cantwell, WA (Nethercutt will probably try again)
Jon Corzine, NJ (there's a good chance he'll run for Gov., would try to appoint his own replacement but NJ situation sort of unstable right now)
Paul Sarbanes, MD (if he retires, Michael Steele will definitely run)
Kent Conrad, ND (if the GOP can find another John Thune)
Ben Nelson, NE (he is very popular, but don't be surprised if Mike Johanns, a very pop. Gov runs against him)
You already mentioned Bill Nelson, Mark Dayton and Robert Byrd (if he retires, I agree on that too)

Reps
George Allen, VA (only if Mark Warner runs)
Jim Talent, MO (Dems will have to find a good candidate)
Rick Santorum, PA (it is unknown how much the Specter support cost him in his western PA base, still pretty tough actually, Dems have good candidates, Rendell machine)
Conrad Burns, MT (only if Schweitzer runs again)
Olympia Snowe, ME (only chance is in-party challenge)
Trent Lott, MS (if he retires)
Richard Lugar, IN (same here, Dems would have to find another Evan Bayh figure)
Bill Frist, TN (if he retires, Harold Ford would be formidable)

Objections:
Democrats are officially on life support in Texas, even if Hutchinson were to run for Gov., it would be pretty impossible for Dems to win, DeLay is wiping them out there as we speak.

No one will challenge Jim Jeffords, unless he leaves, then I give the Dems the edge on that one.

Casey is the only one with a chance to beat Santorum but Casey as the Dem nominee for Senate won't happen.

1) He wants to be Governor.
2) He's pro life. He might be popular but the pro abortion rights groups will throw a lot of money at any pro choice candidate.

Hoeffel can't beat Santorum (let's watch and see if he even runs). Hafer can't beat Santorum. And Rendell can't beat Santorum. Santorum will keep this seat.

How about Mass?  Is Kennedy going to run again?  I remember him saying in 1994 that he wasn't going to run again.  Guess his word is good as gold :-).  This could be a competitive race if he retires, especially if Weld makes another run for the Senate.

Romney for Senate!

I would think Romney would stay in the statehouse.  2006 is his reelection year.

The Senate is looking very bleak for the Democrats for years to come.   The Dems can win the presidency without any Southern states, but they can't take back the Senate that way.  They can't gain many seats in 2006 because they already gained 4 of those same seats in 2000.   Maybe they can take Santorum's seat, plus TN with Ford and VA with Warner, but that's about the best case.

The math is just plain awful for the Dems.  Bush won 30 states this year, so the GOP can get a veto-proof majority without even winning any of the blue states.

Wouldn't it be weird to have two Senator Warners in VA?  I guess they would be Warner Sr. and Warner Jr.

 

Just do what all the moderate Dems have been saying for years and quit it with the divisive social issues! There are plenty of good Dems in the South, but most are pro-life and small-c conservative... Ford and Warner can both win, because they are conservative to populist dems.

What’s important to remember is that economic populism not social liberalism is at the heart of what the Democratic Party is all about, I don't mean that the democrats should abandon some socially liberals stands nor that they should suddenly endorse some of the intolerant and hateful ideas of the far right of the republican party but many within the party could learn from the moderate wing of the party, social liberalism was never a part of the agenda’s of FDR, Truman or Kennedy in fact it was only in the 1970’s in the context of the “counter culture” that it became fused by many liberal dems with the democrats traditional economic populism… it is time to re-evaluate this fusion IMHO       

I agree, though I might say that I don't think Warner can defeat Allen head-on (Allen is very powerful and very well-liked).  He'd probably end up with about the same percentage he did against Warner Sr. in 1996.  It might be smarter to just wait and see if Warner Sr. would retire in 2008.

Santorum is sometimes vulnerable, especially since he stupidly back Specter against Toomey, but I really don't know how that hurt him among his base, if it did at all.  If it didn't, he's a tough nut to crack in PA because of his strength in Western PA.  He always appears more in danger than he is (very few Senators like that).

Ford can win in Tennessee if Bill Frist retires.  He's conservative socially and that would play well there.  I don't know who would run against him on the Rep side.  He won't challenge if its against Frist, obviously.

I don't agree with that.  Remember that pro-life Dem that ran against Sanotrum in 2000?  Ron Klink.  HE LOST!  Only Joe Hoeffel or Chris Heinz can win this seat.  Considering Specter had the AFL-CIO support, it was difficult for Hoeffel to muster anything this time.  They will definitely not back Santorum.  Also, the socially liberal SE suburbs will not vote for him like they did in 2000.

There's two Mike Moores I reckon, or else somebody on this forum has been smoking a lot of crack. :)
Although I guess this is a safe Dem pickup if Moore runs as  a Republican. :)

Mike Moore, is a former Attorney General of Missippi from 1987 to 1999 and just about the most popular politican in the state he seems to have waiting for a chance to run for the senate and while any statewide race for a dem in Mississippi would be tough Moore would be highly competative and in with a very good shot.

Any expected "default" post-9/11 Democratic losses? This is after all the last Senate race with people who were elected before it.

I think most would agree with me when I say that comparing a candidacy by Casey to the candidacy of Klink is pretty insulting.

Then you say only Hoeffel or Heinz can win this seat. Well what about Rendell? (I don't think Rendell can either but I just want your opinion)

Neither Hoeffel nor Heinz can win Santorum's seat. Heinz is nothing. People will see right through him. Hoeffel would provide a bit of a challenge but in the end it would be a 53-47 Santorum win. Hoeffel can have his union support but he'd do poorly out west with the socially conservative Dems.

Heinz is young.  I expect him to run for the House first.  Probably will unseat Melissa Hart (people LOVED his father and they would elect him on his name alone).

Klink was a joke of a candidate.  He ran a poor campaign and had way too much dirty laundry.

Bob Casey Jr would be the best challenger for Santorum but the real question is "does he want the job".  He was just elected to a 4-year term as state treasurer so I agree it is highly unlikely he would jump directly at a Senatorial position.

Heinz wouldn't win a House race against Hart. However, if Hart runs for Governor in 2006, that leaves an open seat. Will he run? Possibly. Could he win? Yeah he could win but I don't think he'd win. People would see right through him.

As for Casey, he doesn't want the job. He wants to be Governor.

If PA-4 is an open seat in 2006, Heinz wins it. Probably as convincingly as Hart did in 2000.

I'd like to see how the NJ Senate race plays out. Corzine might run for Gov.

I would love to see Clinton Tossed on her butt, and Kay Hutchinson in the Gov's Mansion.

I think the Democrats should put more focus on the House but they need to do a better job of refining the blue states into pure Democratic senators. Make a big deal in Maine and RI and go for the jugular of Olympia Snowe and Lincoln Chafee. It will be a project for the stronger than ever New England Democrats to go for. If the Democrats stick it to them they can pull of John Thune's. Just look what Tom Carper did in Delaware in 2000. Try the same strategy in Pennsylvania and there may be a pickup there. The Democrats need to do a better job of identiying the Jim Bunning types earlier so they can wear and tear against them (which was what the NH Democrats succeeded in with the Lynch campaign). The Democrats should field strong candidates in Arizona, Nevada, and Virginia to organize and register new voters before sacrifices will be made in 2008.

I think he's pretty set against running for Governor in 2005 but I guess it could still happen. If so, the 2006 Senate race could mean the return of Republican Doug Forrester as a Senate candidate (he's running for Governor this year but if he wins the primary and has to face Corzine, it's almost guarenteed he'll lose). The Dems would probably put up either Bob Menendez or popular south Jersey Congressman Rob Andrews.

If Corzine stays in the Senate and runs for re-election in two years, he'll win easily.

How? Named ID alone isn't how you win an election. Yeah it helps but that doesn't seal the deal.

Perfect example: PA 17. PATERNO vs. Holden

Actually that was more like PATERNO vs HOLDEN. Voting out one of the best constituency reps in Congress is plain daft.

You didn't answer my question, did you?

Name ID favored Paterno. People across PA know that name especially those in PA 17. I didn't ask you your opinion on whether or not it was a good idea to vote out Holden.

The two are related ;-)

You'd have made a better point, if you'd used the example of Nick Clooney losing... although even then it doesn't quite translate... KY-4 is a naturally Republican district that had a Dem rep who retired. PA-4 is a naturally Democratic (albeit socially conservative) district. Name recogniton mighten't matter a great deal, but it's enough to push you over the top.

Heh, believe it or not, with the crappy football season and overwhelming support of Holden...I think the name ID would go to Holden. It's hard to figure out but you don't live in this area.

He wouldn't win

It would be nice to see him get maybe 46-47% of the vote though.

And if he's going against someone like Ben Affleck, he can win.

I agree.  Joe Paterno is a fossil and has sh**tty football teams.  Scott Paterno looks like a "Tommy Boy". 

he's not William Weld. Only was elected governor because he had a very weak candidate. He is not insanely popular. He'd probably be facing one of the congressman, and he'd lose. It doesn't matter, he'll most likely run for reelection anyway, and lose to Rep. Marty Meehan.

Scott Paterno is a fat moron.

I don't mean to bust on KeystonePhil, but I wish all Republicans had his mentality and cockiness.  He must think the GOP is going to invade certain areas.  He also thinks PA is a solidly conservative state.  I know PA is far from a liberal state, but it is nowhere near as right a KP would think. 

IrishDem, once again, I love how you tell me how I think. I have stated that PA is a conservative state. We're no Utah, we're no Wyoming. However, you're the one saying we're a "centrist" state. Sorry to bust on you, IrishDem, but I don't think you know what you're talking about. I'm sixteen but I know my stuff.

No, Ben Affleck would win (he'd get like 78% of the woman vote) but Romney could approach 45-47%.

Against a 'real' candidate liek Barney Frank, He probably would get 42-45%.

Massachusetts hasn't sent a Democrat to the senate since (Insert First name here) Brooke retired, and he was a liberal.  Only Bill Weld, who I don't think even lives in MA anymore, would have a chance.

Also, MA hasn't sent a Republican to congress in the last 4 elections and maybe longer than that.

Hear hear!

1994 was the last time the Republicans won so much as a House seat in MA.

Going against Ben Affleck, Romney would have a pretty good chance. But let's say Affleck wins. It would be nice to see the seat that Ted Kennedy once held almost go GOP.

As for your final statement, you said MA hasn't sent a Dem to the Senate since Edward Brooke. Don't you mean MA hasn't sent a Republican since then?

As for Bill Weld, yes he would have a chance but he doesn't reside in MA.

Instead of keeping to a mature debate, the Dems have to stoop to personal attacks. How low. Can't say I didn't expect it, though.

Now your saying you're looking for a moral victory in MA?  lol.

And yes I meant That Brooke was the last GOP senator from Massachusetts.

51-49 for Kerry, pretty split, that sounds centrist to me. And the fact that Kerry won by itself means the state isn't conservative.

Arguing with you really is pointless. I have said before that this state is very partisan when it comes to Presidential races. However, this is a conservative state and that can be seen in a number of other races here in the Keystone state.

But why would it be partisan Democrat if it was conservative? Are you saying there are lots of conservatives who voted for the guy who was labeled the #1 liberal in the Senate? (not true, but that's what was said about him)

Using your logic, I could argue Montana is a liberal state.

I'll make this very simple for you, BRTD. Dems outnumber Republicans in this state by a small margin. Many Dems in this state are conservative however when it comes to Presidential elections those conservative Dems are usually pretty partisan. On the state and local levels, it is a different story. That's the way it is in this state. Now you can choose to see it a different way but I believe that most would agree with my logic.

Now here is my question to you: If there was a poll taken in the state of Pennsylvania and those being polled had to label themselves conservative, liberal or moderate, how do you think most of them would answer?

why are the Democrats conservative? They'd have to be liberal on at least some issues if they were Democrats. Therefore while PA might be a conservative state on some issues, it'd have to be liberal on many as well. That evens out to a centrist state.

As for the poll, I'd say moderate.

Forrester is a loser. He spend like half a million on attack ads against Dan Rather in the whole Bush National Guard thing. Bob Menendez might run, hes a powerful House Dem, and a possible Senate candidate. Rob Andrews won't run for Senate, hes a possible contender for the governor in 2005. There are some other Dem possiblites for Senate. Sen. John Adler, my state senator who was chairman of kerry in nj, and chairman of the judiciary committee, is raising money for a '08 run for Senate incase Frank Lautenberg retires again. He could move it up to the '06 race if Corzine leaves for the Governors' Mansion. He was also the frontrunner for U.S. Atty. if Kerry would have won.

I'd put even odds on Orrin Hatch retiring after his term ends in 2006.  He's been serving since 1976, and will be 72.  IF he retires, I doubt the race would be very competitive--I'd look for Mike Leavitt (former  three-term Governor, EPA Administrator), to win over Jan Graham (former two-term Attorney General), although the race would be closer than many outside Utah would imagine, since both are quite popular.

But, that's only IF Hatch retires.  Like I said, even odds.

Get your drivers license yet?

Once you can tell me the relevance of that question to this debate, I'll answer. Otherwise, I suggest you start looking up better ways to debate candidates instead of the "Paterno is fat!" lines.

Well I disagree. I think if you ask some of the PA Dems on the forum they'd even agree that PA is a conservative state.

Casey wants to be governor, not senator.

It totally just depends on where you are in the state. The West is turning more conservative, the East more liberal and the center is staying about the same, with a few areas turning more liberal and others turning more conservative.

Dan I agree.  Montgomery County is getting drastically more liberal and that's a huge county.  In 1988 Ronald Reagan praised them for having one of the best Republican organizations in the country.  That was more of a eulogy.  Also, judging from the results of this past election even Northeast Philly which is relatively conservative compared to the rest of the city turned out for the Dems and gave a 20 yr State House incumbent a near heart attack.  You also have to consider Lois Murphy very narrowly lost to incumbent Republican Jim Gerlach in PA-6.  Rest assure PA-6 and PA-8 will be challenged for years to come as will PA-7 when Curt Weldon retires. 

LOL. This is why I don't take you seriously...

Voter registration in PA:

Democrat:   3,966,293
Republican: 3,386,434

I'll do the math for you since obviously your school isn't doing a good job. Here's the difference: 579,859

That means there's over a half million more Democrats then Republicans in PA. Hardly a small margin.
 

Phil, you didn't explain. Why would a person be a Democrat if they're a 100% conservative?

Also, why did Bush win Westmoreland county and Kerry win Montgomery county then?

You might be able to say Pennsylvania is a SOCIALLY conservative state, but it sure as hell isn't an economically one, or conservative overall.

PA overall is by a very slight margin a socially conservative state. It IS changing. Just look at one of the few growth areas of the state, the Philly suburbs which are becoming more liberal. Western PA is turning more Republican, but that part of the state is declining in population.

On the compass I'd say:

Economic: -2.50
Social: +1.50

Actually, I have known Scott Paterno since high school (I competed in forensics against him).  He is overweight and of below average intelligence (honestly, too many frat parties ... he's been attending them since he was 14).

Actually you didn't address the point I made. This just in: Just because there are more Dems than Republicans doesn't mean more people in PA are liberal. Guess what? Kentucky has a higher Dem registration than Republican. Think they are liberal?

You have to ask some of the conservative Dems why they stay Dem, BRTD. I obviously don't have the answer to that question.

My position on this will stay the same: More people in the state of Pennsylvania identify themselves as conservative as opposed to being moderate or liberal. You disagree? Fine. We have a difference of opinion and I doubt it will change.

Kenney had a near heart attack? IrishDem, I don't think you understand. Every election the Dems target Kenney and make their candidate seem like the best thing the PA Democratic party has ever produced. In the end, Kenney wins and usually wins big. He never took Boyle seriously and never really worried about losing his seat. Boyle might be a great candidate when the seat opens but in all honestly, he's not a candidate that scared Kenney at all.

LOL. The GOP took back the governorship in 2002 for 2 reasons, A) Ehrlich ran a good campaign and Townsend didn't, and B) Glendening had some problems. Steele was not one of the reasons. We have two good candidates ready for Governor, or possibly Senate, in 2006. Martin O'Malley, Mayor of Baltimore (who got 88% for re-election last week) and Prince George's County Executive, Doug Duncan. If they both run for governor, keep in mind we have 6 representives who could move up. That is all assuming Sarbanes doesn't run again; there are some pretty old people in the capitol.

Luzerne County almost went for Bush this year.  Hoeffel lost big and Bush lost by 4,000 votes.

A perfect example of the average PA politician is Bob Casey Jr.  Social consevative, economic liberal.  

That's NOT my point. You said PA is Democratic by a small margin. You didn't check up on your facts.

Ok well maybe it's not a small margin. But it's kind of embarrassing for you guys that with an advantage you can't win back the State House or State Senate or the State AG post or either of the two U.S. Senate seats or a majority in the PA Congressional delegation...

The PA Republicans *did* gerrymander the hell of the state y'know...

...and before that they still had a majority ya know...

What was it... one seat? Two? No more than that. PA's Congressional Delagation was very close for most of the '90's.

My point was with the advantage the Dems have they were never able to overcome the GOP advantage in the delegation no matter how small it was.

After the '98 election the Dems had (IIRC) a one seat advantage in PA.

You're right. I stand corrected. It didn't last very long though.

Isn't it amazing how quickly PA takes over threads? Oh well. Local stuff is usually interesting.
Any amusing scandels in Philly recently?

I doubt anything can beat "the scaffolding needs to be restored"

Some of our Mayor's closest political allies and friends are being indicted. During the 2003 Mayoral election, his office was bugged. He spun the news against the Republicans and cruised to re-election. The Republican, Sam Katz, was going to win, too. Even IrishDem voted for the Republican in that election! The scandal continues to make news these days but it's not that big of a story anymore. However, if the Mayor gets indicted (which some believe will happen) expect to hear about it.

Where would Philly be without grotesque corruption? Oh... I see... a better place... but still... it's a Tradition. Been going on for about 200 years and Philly is still in a better shape than Camden ;-)

Yeah that's always a plus.

Who will it be for Mayor?

Dems:

Jon Saidel
Michael Nutter
Blondell Reynolds Brown
Janine Blackwell
Johnny Dougherty

Reps:

Frank Rizzo Jr.
Brian O'Neill
Jack Kelly

Saidel over Rizzo 57% to 42%.

Too early to tell who the nominees will be. I think your list for possible candidates is pretty good with one exception: Jack Kelly won't run for Mayor or even consider it.

A few comments on the race: Saidel has a great shot at the nomination but Johnny Doc will have strong union backing. I think Blackwell would like to be Mayor but it just won't work out for her in the primary if she's going up against people like Doc and Saidel.

As for the Republicans, like I said Kelly won't run. I'm not sure about O'Neill. People keep bringing him up but in my opinion he wouldn't be a good Mayoral candidate. That being said, my opinion of an O'Neill candidacy doesn't control whether or not it happens. Rizzo was hinting at running as a Dem but it seems like that talk had died down. He'll run as a Republican and be the favorite for the nomination. However, it's still too early to tell the nominees of each party. If I had to take a guess, I'd say Doc vs. Rizzo.

Probably the same reason Zell Miller remained a Dem.  Their fathers, mothers, grandfathers, and grandmothers are all Democrats and they're not going to change their party affiliation because their family link to the Democratic party outweighs the fact that they vote Republican in national elections.