Talk Elections

New Poll: Washington Senator by Rasmussen on 2010-09-29 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2010/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=53320100928016)

Summary: D: 47%, R: 48%, I: 2%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/washington/election_2010_washington_senate)

This surprises me. Oh well, it never was going to be a blowout either way.

What the hell? Lame.

Gah. Gah, I say.

Not sure, but I have a feeling the blatantly false Boeing ad Murray's getting ripped for may have caused it.

I have some vague impression that Rossi started a more focused media barrage. Did he?

Yes, Rossi is up on the air.  The RNSC is running as well.  "American Crossroads" has also reserved air time.

The GOP "thinks" this could be their #51 (they are diverting resources away from California) to fully fund the effort.

Mr. Moderate is correct re the Boeing ad.  Voters have gotten used to attack ads the really, really stretch the truth, but the Murray ad was just a flat out fabrication, and she will pay a (modest) price for it.

Strange, I've seen very few Rossi ads here lately. I thought the Boeing attack ad was really effective.

Good for them that they've realized that Fiorina doesn't stand a chance. I like Angle and DioGuardi the best out of the Republican candidates in marginal states (which isn't saying much since I hate McMahon and Fiorina and don't care for Raese or Rossi), but I can understand that New York's media market is a money pit. However, couldn't the RNC run ads a lot cheaper in Nevada than in Washington?

The situation in Nevada is actually slowly drifting in Angles favour.

The logic, twisted though it may be, is basically as follows.

A) - Angle is a crazy lunatic.
B) - Reid is a mindless tool of Obama aiding and abetting the destruction of the nation.

A) is less dangerous than B)

Angle, however warped, would be 1% of 1/2 of 1/3rd of the power apparatus in Washington.  By herself she can do very little damage.  Harry Reid has actual levers of power that can hurt people.

Reid's numbers are actually mindly trending downward, he is now averaging about 45% in the polls (versus Angle at about 44%) which means Angle likley wins on election day.

I brought this up before when somebody else said this, but a single backbench senator (Jim Bunning) was single-handedly able to hold up the payment of unemployment benefits for about a week, despite opposition from pretty much all of his colleagues, within and without his party.  A single senator still retains significant (potentially harmful, as in this case) power.

On a personal note, although I'm no fan of Harry Reid, I do not want that teabagger representing me in the Senate.

Comparing what Angle could potentially do for a week to what Harry Reid has done for the last four years is ridiculous.

I would agree that the direction is in Angle's favor, however based on polling, the magnitude seems to be at a snail's pace. Unless the undecideds break heavily toward Angle (which isn't impossible), then it will probably continue to be a close race, in which a few bucks could be the difference between winning by ~1000 votes and losing by ~1000 votes.

Rossi has been more visible on the airwaves over the last two weeks.  We may be seeing the effect of that -- if this poll is to be believed.  I will need to see more independent polling to confirm this.  Rasmussen and POR had a hand in the recent FOX News poll which also had the race a tie, so I do not consider it an independent assessment.

Mr. Moderate's belief that Murray is getting "ripped" for the Boeing ad is wrong.  There is no widespread outraged outcry here about this ad.  Some have said the ad is false, but that has been said about many ads on all sides during this political season.  Some have said the ad is effective.

Rossi made a politically unwise statement about the Boeing Tanker bid during an interview with the Tacoma News Tribune and was forced to backpedal/correct his statement.  Whether he made his comments out of ignorance or some secret agenda is unknown, but one can hardly blame Sen. Murray for taking advantage of it.  If there is no hidden agenda, then the real issue is Rossi's unpreparedness on an economically important issue facing our state.

If Vorlon thinks the level of truth stretching in Murray's ad is particularly egregious, then he or she is showing ignorance about politics in general and the public statements/ads on all sides of the WA Senate race in particular.  Perhaps it is more based on the fact that Vorlon thinks that Sen. Murray's victory would be a sign that "democracy is broken and government has been turned over to the hands of a raging mob."

Well, there's one way to prevent that.  Vote Rossi 2010! :)

Better yet, vote Feingold, Murray, and Boxer 2010!!!

This race will be the one to tip the balance in the senate. The 51st. If that happens, it will be in this order:
42) North Dakota
43) Arkansas
44) Indiana
45) Pennsylvania
46) Wisconsin
47) Colorado
48) Illinois
49) West Virginia
50) Nevada
51) Washington

52) Connecticut
53) California


I'm not even putting Delaware on this list. During this month, the GOP will divert cash to races like WA, NV, WI, and WV. They may even take some from CA too

That's a matter of opinion.  I don't consider Reid to be as bad as you do, and has the added advantage of not being a teabagger.

It's not a matter of what intensity of hatred you have for Harry Reid (personally I'm not a fan of funding the wars, SCHIP, the bailouts, "stimulus", medical industry oligopolies, bogus financial "reform", etc. and that's just the things that Reid has accomplished, not to mention the attempted cap and trade, DISCLOSE, and Internet censorship bills), but it is simply a fact that regardless of how much supposed influence Angle would have as a freshman senator, Reid has much more power as the Senator Majority Leader. To suggest otherwise is ludicrous.

Then it appears you misread my initial post.  I was simply refuting The Vorlon's assertion that Angle would have very little power on her own.  I said nothing about Harry Reid until you brought him up.

No, Vorlon's assertion was that Angle would be less dangerous than Harry Reid. You have yet to refute that.

Ah yes, I just reread Vorlon's post, and you're right that that was his assertion.

But again, you (and he) are of the opinion that Harry Reid is "dangerous" to begin with.  I am of the opinion that a teabagger in the United States Senate is also "dangerous".  This is a difference of opinion.

My point for being here was to refute any kind of implication that Angle would have virtually no power at all.  Compared to Reid, sure, but she would still have more power than people give her credit for.  Hence the Bunning reference.

You have to love Rasmussen.

Look at their past three polls-

Rossi +3
Murray +5
Rossi +1

First a swing of 8 for Murray, now a swing of 6 for Rossi.

This race has swung a total of 14 points in 29 days.

Whatever you say, Rasmussen...

Ugh, I was really hoping you wouldn't find the forum part of this site...

If you paid any attention to the race if Washington, you would know that Murray started an ad blitz and had the momentum on her side. But then she ran a terribly inaccurate ad, which has put Rossi back on top, but narrowly.

There was no problem with that ad, and in my opinion, any backfire was minimal.

I agree with this. Voters are used to negative ads at this point, and I don't think there has been much significant backlash towards Murray because of that ad.

Negative ads are nothing new.

It's basic campaign strategy- introduce yourself and give the voters a favorable impression of you, then go all-out negative on the other guy.

And tmthforu- you know very well I follow that Wasington seat very intently.

This is the race I think might turn ala Wisconsin over the next two weeks or so.  I'm not predicting a 10 point win, but I think the third state wide race might be the charm for Rossi.  Washington has elected Republcians and nearly did for governor in 2004.  Murray may be one of the last swept away by the wave much as Talent and Allen were in 2006.

One can't say they pay attention to polling if they ridicule/ignore any pollster completely.

Hypocrite. :D

Ha.  The thing George Allen got swept away in was his own macaca.  The poetic justice was highly amusing.

Right, and Talent was never as far behind as Feingold is now. The race was a practical toss-up to the very end.

Keep in mind, Rossi was up on Gregoire in most late polls in 2004 and lost.  This is a senatorial race, which is tougher for the minority party to win.

Murray survives 52-47%, my guess.

Rossi actually sounds like a pretty decent person.

It all sepends what you mean by "decent".

Went into real estate with lobbyists when he was in the legislature, and taught seminars for investors on how to profit off of other's foreclosures.

In my mind, he was never decent, and still isn't.

I think Murray will survive 52-48, roughly.

Negative ads aren't new, no. Entirely untruthful ads, however, are fairly unique.

Well, unless you add in that one Grayson ran.

You can believe that but the Everett Herald, whose circulation area includes the largest Boeing factory in the state, has endorsed Sen. Murray.  And the editorial specifically mentions her strong support for Boeing's tanker bid:


http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20101003/OPINION01/710039961 (http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20101003/OPINION01/710039961)