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Title: HI-01: PPP: Hanabusa leads a close one Post by: Rowan on October 05, 2010, 11:51:11 AM HI-01
Hanabusa: 48% Djou: 47% http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2010/10/2/HI-1/11/5ZR4S Title: Re: HI-01: PPP: Hanabusa leads a close one Post by: Sam Spade on October 05, 2010, 11:58:12 AM So basically what I suspected, though Hawaii polling sucks, which means both I and it could be dead wrong.
Title: Re: HI-01: PPP: Hanabusa leads a close one Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on October 05, 2010, 12:12:56 PM It's time for another Obama endorsement ad.
Title: Re: HI-01: PPP: Hanabusa leads a close one Post by: DrScholl on October 05, 2010, 12:27:26 PM Hanabusa under polled very much during the special election, some of her support just didn't show up in the polls done then.
Title: Re: HI-01: PPP: Hanabusa leads a close one Post by: Dgov on October 05, 2010, 02:05:15 PM This also has Abercrombie tied, so it might be a republican-leaning sample.
Either way, this is good news for Djou. At the very least this isn't going to be a blowout election. Title: Re: HI-01: PPP: Hanabusa leads a close one Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 05, 2010, 03:08:43 PM This also has Abercrombie tied, so it might be a republican-leaning sample. Either way, this is good news for Djou. At the very least this isn't going to be a blowout election. And surprisingly good news for Aiona. Someone should totally poll that. Title: Re: HI-01: PPP: Hanabusa leads a close one Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on October 05, 2010, 03:10:40 PM Hansubusa's election day support was higher than her polls were in the special election. Supposedly there's a cultural thing where Japanese women refuse to answer polls or something.
Title: Re: HI-01: PPP: Hanabusa leads a close one Post by: Dgov on October 05, 2010, 03:14:24 PM Hansubusa's election day support was higher than her polls were in the special election. Supposedly there's a cultural thing where Japanese women refuse to answer polls or something. But wasn't that coming mostly from the other guy rather than Djou? Either way, this is going to be an interesting end to the election night bonanza. Title: Re: HI-01: PPP: Hanabusa leads a close one Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 05, 2010, 06:01:30 PM The poll has Abercrombie and Aiona tied, so either this poll is understating Democratic support or Abercrombie's in some real trouble.
Title: Re: HI-01: PPP: Hanabusa leads a close one Post by: Dgov on October 05, 2010, 06:05:04 PM The poll has Abercrombie and Aiona tied, so either this poll is understating Democratic support or Abercrombie's in some real trouble. Well, the other Hawaii seat is more Democratic, so it still suggests he's leading statewide. Title: Re: HI-01: PPP: Hanabusa leads a close one Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on October 06, 2010, 01:41:04 AM Well, doesn't HI has a strong incumbent bent?
Title: Re: HI-01: PPP: Hanabusa leads a close one Post by: Dgov on October 06, 2010, 03:49:28 AM Well, doesn't HI has a strong incumbent bent? Title: Re: HI-01: PPP: Hanabusa leads a close one Post by: Mr.Phips on October 06, 2010, 03:50:50 AM Well, doesn't HI has a strong incumbent bent? The same was true for federal races in Louisiana until 2008 and in Mississippi. Title: Re: HI-01: PPP: Hanabusa leads a close one Post by: Brittain33 on October 06, 2010, 08:30:17 AM Well, doesn't HI has a strong incumbent bent? I don't understand the argument that someone counts as an incumbent if the large majority of voters never voted for him, but actually voted for members of the other party, and he's only been in office a few months. Title: Re: HI-01: PPP: Hanabusa leads a close one Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on October 07, 2010, 05:49:32 PM Well, doesn't HI has a strong incumbent bent? I don't understand the argument that someone counts as an incumbent if the large majority of voters never voted for him, but actually voted for members of the other party, and he's only been in office a few months. I don't understand what's your point being. A large plurality did vote for him, and the fact is Hawaii never had never turfed an "incumbent" from federal office. Title: Re: HI-01: PPP: Hanabusa leads a close one Post by: Brittain33 on October 07, 2010, 06:40:32 PM Well, doesn't HI has a strong incumbent bent? I don't understand the argument that someone counts as an incumbent if the large majority of voters never voted for him, but actually voted for members of the other party, and he's only been in office a few months. I don't understand what's your point being. A large plurality did vote for him, and the fact is Hawaii never had never turfed an "incumbent" from federal office. Because he needs to win over lots of people who didn't vote for him. A traditional incumbent has already gotten a majority of people to vote for him once before who are then validating their previous choice or feel they have some personal investment in his performance. What other reason could there be for an incumbent to have an advantage? His plurality was not that impressive, either. 45% would have been better, but at 40%, he clearly only won because the Dems split their votes. Title: Re: HI-01: PPP: Hanabusa leads a close one Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 08, 2010, 07:07:24 AM I've never understood why people put so much stock in these "state x hasn't voted out an incumbent in y years" saws. Past performance is never a reliable indicator of future results in politics.
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