Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2010 House Election Polls => Topic started by: cinyc on October 06, 2010, 04:44:02 PM



Title: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: cinyc on October 06, 2010, 04:44:02 PM
CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman River Group Poll (http://www.ctcapitolreport.com/images/library/CapReportPollCT%205th%20Congressional%20District.pdf)

Caliguiri (R)   -  49.7%
Murphy (D)(i) - 44.3%
Undecided     -  6.0%

October 3-5, 2010; 481 LV; MOE +/- 4.5%

http://www.ctcapitolreport.com/images/library/CapReportPollCT%205th%20Congressional%20District.pdf

CT Capitol Report promises polls of CT-01 and CT-04 tomorrow.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Captiol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: tpfkaw on October 06, 2010, 04:54:26 PM
(D)(i)?


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Captiol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: cinyc on October 06, 2010, 04:57:27 PM

Democrat.  Incumbent.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Captiol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: Meeker on October 06, 2010, 06:29:20 PM
Haha, a poll with decimals. Cute.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Captiol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: cinyc on October 06, 2010, 06:37:44 PM

Caveat emptor.  Well, at least it's free to us.

You'd love the ccAdvertising NY internals, showing results to the hundredths of a percent.  Talk about false precision.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Captiol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 06, 2010, 06:46:40 PM
This is really not that surprising.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Captiol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: Mr.Phips on October 06, 2010, 07:50:24 PM
Well, at least Murphy wont have to give up his seat now if he's going to run for Senate in 2012. 


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Captiol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: Torie on October 06, 2010, 09:29:31 PM
Murphy (D) is down 5%, while McMahon is down 10% statewide (a 15% difference).  CT-5 is about 10% more GOP than the state. So this to me is another indicator of just how nationalized this election is, absent unusual circumstances.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: cinyc on October 06, 2010, 09:35:12 PM
Murphy (D) is down 5%, while McMahon is down 10% statewide (a 15% difference).  CT-5 is about 10% more GOP than the state. So this to me is another indicator of just how nationalized this election is, absent unusual circumstances.

The poll release said McMahon performed her best in CT-05.  

Tomorrow's CT-04 release should be interesting.  CT-01 should be a Democratic blowout.  Hopefully, they poll the competitive race in CT-02, too.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: minionofmidas on October 07, 2010, 03:22:43 AM
The poll release said McMahon performed her best in CT-05.  
Anything else would be quite surprising.

Quote
Tomorrow's CT-04 release should be interesting.  CT-01 should be a Democratic blowout.  Hopefully, they poll the competitive race in CT-02, too.
You mean, hopefully CT-02 is a competitive race, too.



I'd been somewhat wondering why I hadn't heard anything on the two eastern CT races.
Some people have this line about how a score of D incumbents are probably in trouble who don't even know it yet - how some seats might fall that nobody talked about - and I thought about what races they might mean and could think of about a dozen. These two were among them.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: cinyc on October 07, 2010, 12:49:56 PM
You mean, hopefully CT-02 is a competitive race, too.

No, CT-02 should be competitive if CT-04 is.  It's just one point more Democratic than CT-04 (D+6 vs D+5), but much more blue collar than the rest of Connecticut.  It's working class whites that are abandoning the Democrats most.  I'd be shocked if Peckinpaugh isn't within at least 7.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on October 07, 2010, 03:01:14 PM
You mean, hopefully CT-02 is a competitive race, too.

No, CT-02 should be competitive if CT-04 is.  It's just one point more Democratic than CT-04 (D+6 vs D+5), but much more blue collar than the rest of Connecticut.  It's working class whites that are abandoning the Democrats most.  I'd be shocked if Peckinpaugh isn't within at least 7.

I'd be shocked if either of these races are actually competitive


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: cinyc on October 07, 2010, 03:08:05 PM
You mean, hopefully CT-02 is a competitive race, too.

No, CT-02 should be competitive if CT-04 is.  It's just one point more Democratic than CT-04 (D+6 vs D+5), but much more blue collar than the rest of Connecticut.  It's working class whites that are abandoning the Democrats most.  I'd be shocked if Peckinpaugh isn't within at least 7.

I'd be shocked if either of these races are actually competitive

Prepare to be shocked.  All 3 districts were held by Republicans in 2004.  CT-02 and CT-05 flipped in 2006; CT-04 in 2008.  They should be competitive - and will be.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: DrScholl on October 07, 2010, 03:13:43 PM
Not sure I buy this one, especially since they're CT-1 numbers seem off.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on October 07, 2010, 04:19:17 PM
You mean, hopefully CT-02 is a competitive race, too.

No, CT-02 should be competitive if CT-04 is.  It's just one point more Democratic than CT-04 (D+6 vs D+5), but much more blue collar than the rest of Connecticut.  It's working class whites that are abandoning the Democrats most.  I'd be shocked if Peckinpaugh isn't within at least 7.

I'd be shocked if either of these races are actually competitive

Prepare to be shocked.  All 3 districts were held by Republicans in 2004.  CT-02 and CT-05 flipped in 2006; CT-04 in 2008.  They should be competitive - and will be.

TX-22, FL-16, and KS-2 were Democratic in 2006, yet somehow I doubt they're going to be close :P  This reminds me of how some people were saying Courtney and Murphy might be vulnerable/in tough races in 2008.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on October 07, 2010, 07:18:19 PM
The key is the the GOP rebound in white upper class suburbs. That explains CT-05 and CT-04. In the 2000-2008 paradigm these were becoming more and more Dem and off limits to the GOP. Hence in 2006, Scott Elliot of Election Projections Listed CT-02 and CT-05 as the least likely to go back to the GOP after they were lost. The Paradigm has shifted significantly.


You mean, hopefully CT-02 is a competitive race, too.

No, CT-02 should be competitive if CT-04 is.  It's just one point more Democratic than CT-04 (D+6 vs D+5), but much more blue collar than the rest of Connecticut.  It's working class whites that are abandoning the Democrats most.  I'd be shocked if Peckinpaugh isn't within at least 7.

I'd be shocked if either of these races are actually competitive

Prepare to be shocked.  All 3 districts were held by Republicans in 2004.  CT-02 and CT-05 flipped in 2006; CT-04 in 2008.  They should be competitive - and will be.

TX-22, FL-16, and KS-2 were Democratic in 2006, yet somehow I doubt they're going to be close :P  This reminds me of how some people were saying Courtney and Murphy might be vulnerable/in tough races in 2008.

Cappielo was a strong candidate who just couldn't get traction in 2008 due to the environment and the continuing trend against the GOP in these type of seats.

CT-02 was only going to be Competative if Simmons had a rematch. He didn't.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on October 07, 2010, 07:22:21 PM
As was mentioned, CT-02 is more blue collar working class whites then the other two districts are. That coud be either good or bad for GOP. Simmons did well in this district but it was held by a Dem for 20 to 30 years before him and Simmons only be him due to a scandal I beleive in 2000, overcoming Gore's victory in the district. I think CT-02 is hardest of all them for the GOP to oust an incumbent Dem.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: minionofmidas on October 08, 2010, 08:05:54 AM
You mean, hopefully CT-02 is a competitive race, too.

No, CT-02 should be competitive if CT-04 is.  It's just one point more Democratic than CT-04 (D+6 vs D+5), but much more blue collar than the rest of Connecticut.  It's working class whites that are abandoning the Democrats most.
Nobody is abandoning the Democrats in large numbers, not even to nonvoting. What's actually happening is Republicans are turning out in record numbers for a midterm. And the fourth, being far more suburban, is much more likely to vote party not person in downballot races.
This isn't to say that the second might not be competitive too - just that it might not be.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: cinyc on October 08, 2010, 12:31:15 PM
You mean, hopefully CT-02 is a competitive race, too.

No, CT-02 should be competitive if CT-04 is.  It's just one point more Democratic than CT-04 (D+6 vs D+5), but much more blue collar than the rest of Connecticut.  It's working class whites that are abandoning the Democrats most.
Nobody is abandoning the Democrats in large numbers, not even to nonvoting. What's actually happening is Republicans are turning out in record numbers for a midterm. And the fourth, being far more suburban, is much more likely to vote party not person in downballot races.
This isn't to say that the second might not be competitive too - just that it might not be.

According to the recent AFK/AP poll, the gap in support among working class whites for Democratic congressional candidates has doubled from R+11 in 2008 to R+22.  That's what I meant by a significant abandonment of Democrats by working class voters - so-called Reagan Democrats moving back to the GOP.

The trend is most evident in the Upper Midwest.  Apparently, it's not translating to CT-02.  CT Capitol Reports' pollster claims the result is due to Courtney localizing the race.  I know Peckinpaugh had some tax issues.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: minionofmidas on October 08, 2010, 12:42:05 PM
CT Capitol Reports' pollster claims the result is due to Courtney localizing the race.
Which is easier to do in some types of areas than others. And certainly ought to be easier in eastern Connecticut that western Connecticut.
Which brings me back to what I've been saying here, and for weeks, and Sam Spade has been implying for months. (Yankee's got it too.) :P


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on October 08, 2010, 03:18:53 PM


You mean, hopefully CT-02 is a competitive race, too.

No, CT-02 should be competitive if CT-04 is.  It's just one point more Democratic than CT-04 (D+6 vs D+5), but much more blue collar than the rest of Connecticut.  It's working class whites that are abandoning the Democrats most.
Nobody is abandoning the Democrats in large numbers, not even to nonvoting. What's actually happening is Republicans are turning out in record numbers for a midterm. And the fourth, being far more suburban, is much more likely to vote party not person in downballot races.
This isn't to say that the second might not be competitive too - just that it might not be.

People are abandoning Democrats, especially blue collar working class voters. The Problem is that this is New England and CT-02's blue collar workers might be resistant to voting GOP like has been seen in RI and Bristol, MA. This is the type of year in which such business as usuall can change but it doesn't mean it will and definately doesn't mean it is uniform acrossed these states.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: cinyc on October 08, 2010, 03:56:58 PM
People are abandoning Democrats, especially blue collar working class voters. The Problem is that this is New England and CT-02's blue collar workers might be resistant to voting GOP like has been seen in RI and Bristol, MA. This is the type of year in which such business as usuall can change but it doesn't mean it will and definately doesn't mean it is uniform acrossed these states.

Actually, Bristol County, MA had the second-largest swing of any MA county from McCain to Brown, and the largest swing from the Republican in most recent major competitive statewide races (Weld v. Kerry and Romney v. O'Brien).  Granted, Scott Brown was from a neighboring county - but I don't think that explained all of it.  

I don't think CT-02's blue collar workers are resistant to voting GOP.  They did vote for Simmons.  

One major difference between CT-02 and CT-04 and CT-05 is the lack of a Democratic stronghold city with a large minority population whose residents likely won't turn out in anywhere close to the same percentages this year as in '08.  CT-04 has Bridgeport.  CT-05 has New Britain and Danbury.  Bridgeport turnout will likely determine who wins CT-04.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: minionofmidas on October 09, 2010, 03:35:28 AM
Pollsters actually expect the second-highest Dem percentage (of the available electorate) in a midterm in a long long time. 2006 being highest.
The issue is that they're also expecting a record-shattering Rep percentage.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 09, 2010, 11:58:14 AM
According to the recent AFK/AP poll, the gap in support among working class whites for Democratic congressional candidates has doubled from R+11 in 2008 to R+22. 

No, it was a poll of whites who admitted to not having a degree, which was then packaged as a poll of 'the white working class'. Defining class in such terms is... actually pretty stupid. Though as whites who are working class are the part of the electorate most alienated from the two parties, they're also the largest block of swingable voters in the country. So, yeah.

But shifts in low turnout elections are mostly about turnout.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: cinyc on October 09, 2010, 02:26:55 PM
According to the recent AFK/AP poll, the gap in support among working class whites for Democratic congressional candidates has doubled from R+11 in 2008 to R+22. 

No, it was a poll of whites who admitted to not having a degree, which was then packaged as a poll of 'the white working class'. Defining class in such terms is... actually pretty stupid. Though as whites who are working class are the part of the electorate most alienated from the two parties, they're also the largest block of swingable voters in the country. So, yeah.

But shifts in low turnout elections are mostly about turnout.

AP argues that because of income disparities in different parts of the country, defining working class by educational background instead of income makes sense.  A $50,000 family income in NYC is practically peanuts.  $50,000 in Dubuque is a lot more.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: minionofmidas on October 09, 2010, 02:30:04 PM
The issue is probably that elderly non-posh, not working class either, people do not have degrees. Though their children or grandchildren do (in America. In Germany, not necessarily. The degree explosion hasn't really continued apace here in the last twenty years.)



Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 09, 2010, 02:44:57 PM
I have coworkers who don't have college degrees; they're in white-collar office jobs. Does this count as "working-class"?


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: minionofmidas on October 09, 2010, 02:47:37 PM
I have coworkers who don't have college degrees; they're in white-collar office jobs. Does this count as "working-class"?
That would depend on what kind of "white-collar office job"; as well as on their family background, values, outlook on life.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 09, 2010, 07:13:19 PM
AP argues that because of income disparities in different parts of the country, defining working class by educational background instead of income makes sense.  A $50,000 family income in NYC is practically peanuts.  $50,000 in Dubuque is a lot more.

Yeah, I'd guess that was probably the reason given. The problem is that this is not a geography of class:

()

Even if class is a factor in it. Another problem is the tendency of people to lie about their qualifications. In most countries the effect of that would be obvious, but I wonder if it might work the other way in America, given post-1960s anti-intellectual discourses*.

That said given that non-working class people who are prepared to admit that they don't have a degree are likely the staunchest in support for today's Republican Party, any significant movement amongst whites without degrees is probably related more to movement amongst working class voters, rather than the others.

*Often promoted by... er... intellectuals. But then, hey. Engels was a capitalist.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: Torie on October 10, 2010, 09:06:50 AM
Here are the swings based on PVI (in the margins, so you get the baseline margin by doubling the PVI percentage)in the 5 CT districts:

1. +21%R
2. +2%D
3. +3%D
4. +8%R
5. +9%R

The comments here as to why the variance seem reasonable to me.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: AndrewTX on October 10, 2010, 03:58:12 PM
People are abandoning Democrats, especially blue collar working class voters. The Problem is that this is New England and CT-02's blue collar workers might be resistant to voting GOP like has been seen in RI and Bristol, MA. This is the type of year in which such business as usuall can change but it doesn't mean it will and definately doesn't mean it is uniform acrossed these states.

Actually, Bristol County, MA had the second-largest swing of any MA county from McCain to Brown, and the largest swing from the Republican in most recent major competitive statewide races (Weld v. Kerry and Romney v. O'Brien).  Granted, Scott Brown was from a neighboring county - but I don't think that explained all of it.  

I don't think CT-02's blue collar workers are resistant to voting GOP.  They did vote for Simmons.  

One major difference between CT-02 and CT-04 and CT-05 is the lack of a Democratic stronghold city with a large minority population whose residents likely won't turn out in anywhere close to the same percentages this year as in '08.  CT-04 has Bridgeport.  CT-05 has New Britain and Danbury.  Bridgeport turnout will likely determine who wins CT-04.

Actually, Bridgeport wont have an effect on it. Its all coming down to my city of Norwalk. Voters arent going to come out like they did in 2008, and especially in Bridgeport. Stamford will probably still lean Dem, but if you can win Norwalk, you'll win the election.


Title: Re: CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on October 10, 2010, 07:23:38 PM
People are abandoning Democrats, especially blue collar working class voters. The Problem is that this is New England and CT-02's blue collar workers might be resistant to voting GOP like has been seen in RI and Bristol, MA. This is the type of year in which such business as usuall can change but it doesn't mean it will and definately doesn't mean it is uniform acrossed these states.

Actually, Bristol County, MA had the second-largest swing of any MA county from McCain to Brown, and the largest swing from the Republican in most recent major competitive statewide races (Weld v. Kerry and Romney v. O'Brien).  Granted, Scott Brown was from a neighboring county - but I don't think that explained all of it.  

I don't think CT-02's blue collar workers are resistant to voting GOP.  They did vote for Simmons.  

One major difference between CT-02 and CT-04 and CT-05 is the lack of a Democratic stronghold city with a large minority population whose residents likely won't turn out in anywhere close to the same percentages this year as in '08.  CT-04 has Bridgeport.  CT-05 has New Britain and Danbury.  Bridgeport turnout will likely determine who wins CT-04.

Why the hell do you think I included the Sentence about uniformity. I mean I could write books of posts explaining all the twists and turns and sub points but no one would read them because of length. I am fully aware of Scott Brown's victory in Bristol and such forth. Thats why I said the trend may not be uniform. OVer the last 30 years those areas have been resistent to Republican overtures unlike similar areas around the country. Hency my inclusion of the sentence just prior.

CT-02 does have Groton. It may not be large but certainly hasn't been moving towards the GOP. Simmons did well there I beleive. Others will likely struggle till you get the right combo of candidate, year and turnout.