Title: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on October 18, 2010, 01:24:23 PM http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2010/10/16/AZ-3/15/aYA8e
Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 10/16-17. Likely voters. MoE 3.8% (No trend lines) Ben Quayle (R) 44 Jon Hulburd (D) 46 Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on October 18, 2010, 01:39:59 PM The sample is:
51% women, 49% men 52% McCain voters, 40% Obama, 9% someone else/don't remember 45% Republican, 30% Democrats, 25% Independent/Other Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Hash on October 18, 2010, 01:43:03 PM what
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 18, 2010, 01:44:32 PM While this district is quite conservative, that doesn't mean they are eager to elect a moron who is the son of another moron who actually stated in his campaign ad "Barack Obama is the worst President in history." even if they aren't fond of Obama.
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Eraserhead on October 18, 2010, 01:44:53 PM ...
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 18, 2010, 01:47:15 PM lol, wha
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 18, 2010, 01:48:38 PM I don't expect this one to flip honestly, but really the GOP would've walked away with this one if they had nominated anyone besides the son of one of the biggest and most mocked jokes in American politics.
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: minionofmidas on October 18, 2010, 02:15:49 PM That primary was another textbook case for irv or at least a runoff in primaries.
Quayle actually trailing? Not just in trouble but trailing in a poll? Lolsson. Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Niemeyerite on October 18, 2010, 02:24:13 PM I knew this race was a toss up. but I thought I was crazy. Quayle is the worst candidate ever.
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Iosif on October 18, 2010, 02:30:45 PM Republicans have been quite fond of shooting themselves in the foot this cycle.
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: minionofmidas on October 18, 2010, 02:32:53 PM I knew this race was a toss up. but I thought I was crazy. Quayle is the worst candidate ever. Of course, we may be drawing too much from just one poll here. Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: DrScholl on October 18, 2010, 02:41:28 PM It looks like Quayle is just too wacky for some. I'm still surprised by these numbers, though.
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 18, 2010, 03:02:11 PM It would be pretty hilarious to pick up this seat. While it will probably be close, I doubt we take it.
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Rowan on October 18, 2010, 04:37:24 PM No.
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on October 18, 2010, 05:17:38 PM This poll is a shocker in all possible aspects. It has Brewer up by only 51-44 and McCain up by only 53-39.
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 18, 2010, 05:42:44 PM Looks a little too Dem-friendly, to me. I did think Quayle would slip by without any major trouble due to the nature of the district and the year, plus Brewer/McCain coattails. Still, this is going back on my list, although I don't think Quayle will lose -- until the 2012 primary, that is.
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: redcommander on October 18, 2010, 05:47:02 PM I hope he loses. Can you image how much of a joke he would be on the house floor?
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: victorola on October 18, 2010, 06:17:18 PM If Brewer is only up by 7 points in a poll of likely voters in a conservative district, then Goddard has a chance. We can hope.
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Zarn on October 18, 2010, 06:21:25 PM This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end.
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Dgov on October 18, 2010, 07:58:40 PM If Brewer is only up by 7 points in a poll of likely voters in a conservative district, then Goddard has a chance. We can hope. Or (More likely) this poll is too friendly to the Democrats. Though Qualye is the best argument for IIRV. He won almost entirely on the strength of his family name, with like 25% of the vote against 10 candidates Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: DrScholl on October 18, 2010, 08:09:47 PM I'm looking at the internals, the poll doesn't look to be biased toward Democrats, Obama has 55% disapproval, the electorate is 4% less Democratic than 2008 and 45% Republican. It's about the favorables, Hulbard is not known by almost half of those polled and Quayle is disapproved of by 52%.
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Eraserhead on October 18, 2010, 08:27:24 PM This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end. Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though. Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Dgov on October 18, 2010, 08:29:44 PM I'm looking at the internals, the poll doesn't look to be biased toward Democrats, Obama has 55% disapproval, the electorate is 4% less Democratic than 2008 and 45% Republican. It's about the favorables, Hulbard is not known by almost half of those polled and Quayle is disapproved of by 52%. I don't mean in the crosstabs, i mean in general. Obama got 42% of the Vote here in 2008, so a 38% approval rating for him is actually really good. The McCain numbers are also really low, considering he won the district with 57% of the vote in 2008. An interesting bit in the poll though is that AZ-3 Hispanics oppose the immigration law by only 5 points. Granted the Hispanics here aren't as Liberal as those in AZ-4 in South Phoenix, but those kinds of numbers suggest that Obama's attempt to use immigration to turnout Hispanic voters might not have been the best idea. Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Dgov on October 18, 2010, 08:31:49 PM This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end. Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though. Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category. Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Eraserhead on October 18, 2010, 08:37:29 PM This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end. Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though. Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category. Well, we'll still take it while we can have it. :P Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on October 18, 2010, 09:45:46 PM This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end. Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though. Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category. If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 ;) Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Skill and Chance on October 18, 2010, 09:56:46 PM This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end. Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though. Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category. If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 ;) Minnick's Tea Party endorsement likely explains 90% of his lead. The other 10% comes from his wacky opponent. Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Eraserhead on October 18, 2010, 10:08:42 PM This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end. Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though. Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category. If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 ;) Minnick's Tea Party endorsement likely explains 90% of his lead. The other 10% comes from his wacky opponent. Didn't he say he didn't want it after they gave it to him? Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on October 18, 2010, 11:13:43 PM This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end. Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though. Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category. If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 ;) Minnick's Tea Party endorsement likely explains 90% of his lead. The other 10% comes from his wacky opponent. Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Tender Branson on October 19, 2010, 12:46:13 AM The DCCC should probably pour a good sum into this district to see what comes out in the end.
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 19, 2010, 12:47:00 AM Did this idiot benefit from affirmative action like his idiot daddy did?
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Dgov on October 19, 2010, 02:44:35 AM This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end. Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though. Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category. If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 ;) Seeing as this apparent closeness is almost entirely due to Ben Qualye's unfavorables, no. Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 19, 2010, 03:07:14 AM This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end. Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though. Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category. If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 ;) Seeing as this apparent closeness is almost entirely due to Ben Qualye's unfavorables, no. And the only reason we won ID-01 at all was Bill Sali's unfavorables. Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 19, 2010, 03:10:05 AM Quayle is a mess, of course. Still favored to win because of the environment, but there's no reason why Democrats can't actually pick up this seat if they really want it.
But with Dems on their heals defending 50+ incumbents ... can they afford $500,000 here to chase after a hard-to-hold seat? Should be interesting to see what happens here. Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Wonkish1 on October 19, 2010, 09:19:55 AM Okay as a person that had this race as a tossup/ lean republican well before this poll came out ill put my 2 cents in.
A) he is a horrible candidate, and he has brought this race to the point that he could lose it on nov 2nd. B) the poll is a little off. A little off on the mccain and obama numbers but not by a lot. And by ppp's lv screening(even though that is probably less of a factor here) My guess is that if a poll was done right in az 3 it would have quayle up 1-2%. That's it. So this ones going down to the wire. Ill add to more close races held by gop that are on no ones radar. MI 3 all the moderate republicans are backing the dem NE 2 less close than the previous 2, but this economic oasis is not going to be apart of any "wave".. This race is all local. Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Torie on October 19, 2010, 10:03:38 AM Quayle is a mess, of course. Still favored to win because of the environment, but there's no reason why Democrats can't actually pick up this seat if they really want it. But with Dems on their heals defending 50+ incumbents ... can they afford $500,000 here to chase after a hard-to-hold seat? Should be interesting to see what happens here. Quayle fils makes Quayle pere look like a most attractive candidate by comparison. He strikes me as just another dumb, spoiled, self indulgent and rich scion. Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Phony Moderate on October 19, 2010, 10:09:34 AM lol
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: minionofmidas on October 19, 2010, 11:33:11 AM What will the Arizona map look like after 2010, exactly? They got a nonpartisan commission and VRA-protected seats and will gain several.
Probably wouldn't save this bloke unless he turns out surprisingly good (and no Zach, Sali's loss was not due to Sali being Sali alone. Minnick was a wellknown moderate candidate.) Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Brittain33 on October 19, 2010, 11:47:45 AM What will the Arizona map look like after 2010, exactly? They got a nonpartisan commission and VRA-protected seats and will gain several. Probably wouldn't save this bloke unless he turns out surprisingly good (and no Zach, Sali's loss was not due to Sali being Sali alone. Minnick was a wellknown moderate candidate.) This seat will be at least as Republican as it is now. Growth in Phoenix metro area has been in the far west and the southeast. Whichever area gets the new district--probably in the southeast--this district will likely have to shift a bit in the opposite direction. Which means picking up reliably Republican areas from AZ-2 or AZ-5. Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on October 19, 2010, 06:45:59 PM This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end. Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though. Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category. If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 ;) Minnick's Tea Party endorsement likely explains 90% of his lead. The other 10% comes from his wacky opponent. I highly doubt Ward and Labrador are the only Republicans in ID-01. :P Criticizing the current nominee in a race, isn't an endorsement for his primary opponent you know. You can criticize Maes for instance and that doesn't mean you wanted McInnis instead. It could mean you wanted Penry or Suthers or someone else that is remotely acceptable that ran and dropped out or considered running and decided not to. Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 19, 2010, 09:59:20 PM What will the Arizona map look like after 2010, exactly? They got a nonpartisan commission and VRA-protected seats and will gain several. Probably wouldn't save this bloke unless he turns out surprisingly good (and no Zach, Sali's loss was not due to Sali being Sali alone. Minnick was a wellknown moderate candidate.) This seat will be at least as Republican as it is now. Growth in Phoenix metro area has been in the far west and the southeast. Whichever area gets the new district--probably in the southeast--this district will likely have to shift a bit in the opposite direction. Which means picking up reliably Republican areas from AZ-2 or AZ-5. Actually the new seat will likely be a DOJ-mandated Hispanic majority one. Arizona is over 30% Hispanic, which would "entitle" them to three seats under a 9-seat map. Drawing such a seat though on the redistricting app resulted in a map where this seat didn't change much though. Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on October 19, 2010, 11:00:20 PM This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end. Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though. Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category. If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 ;) Minnick's Tea Party endorsement likely explains 90% of his lead. The other 10% comes from his wacky opponent. Criticizing the current nominee in a race, isn't an endorsement for his primary opponent you know. You can criticize Maes for instance and that doesn't mean you wanted McInnis instead. It could mean you wanted Penry or Suthers or someone else that is remotely acceptable that ran and dropped out or considered running and decided not to. Minnick has quickly become entrenched. 2012 will definitely be more difficult for him but if he can survive in 2k12, he'll be this district's congressman for a long time. Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: minionofmidas on October 20, 2010, 10:47:46 AM Not really. He's old. :P
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2010, 07:13:55 PM lol @ PPP
Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Vepres on November 06, 2010, 07:26:34 PM This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end. Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though. Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category. If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 ;) Turns out you can't :P Title: Re: PPP polls AZ-03, oh my god Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 06, 2010, 11:45:33 PM This proves that PPP has gone off the deep end. Nope. It more than likely proves that Quayle is a terrible candidate though. Well, if Quayle does lose, you can put this down in the "Seats Republicans will pickup in 2012" Category. If we can hold ID-1 in 2010 ;) Minnick's Tea Party endorsement likely explains 90% of his lead. The other 10% comes from his wacky opponent. Criticizing the current nominee in a race, isn't an endorsement for his primary opponent you know. You can criticize Maes for instance and that doesn't mean you wanted McInnis instead. It could mean you wanted Penry or Suthers or someone else that is remotely acceptable that ran and dropped out or considered running and decided not to. Minnick has quickly become entrenched. 2012 will definitely be more difficult for him but if he can survive in 2k12, he'll be this district's congressman for a long time. Some trench? They produce the shovels in china? |