Talk Elections

57% Stutzman (R)
32% Hayhurst (D)
  7% Wise (L)

Statement of Methodology for U.S. House 3rd District of Indiana:

SurveyUSA interviewed 565 registered voters from Indiana's 3rd Congressional District 10/21/10 through 10/25/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 400 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 midterm election. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to the voter registration database. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2010/DownsSUSA_IN_1026.htm

Well, Penn Schoen and Berland say that Stutzman (R) is down by 12% actually, with Hayworth (D) rendering him chopped liver. I guess all that missionary  work by JS in Ft. Wayne has made the place a Dem bastion or something. Alternatively, something is rotten in Denmark. I have emailed PSB inviting it to disown this purported poll which appears on the subject website. Developing ...  

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As someone who knows this race quite well, I can tell you that Stutzman is definitely winning, though maybe not by 25. I'd say he'll win with right around 60% of the vote. Marlin is running a great campaign, he's a great person, and will make a great Representative in Congress.

It sounds like they accidentally reversed the numbers to me.

The only problem with the transposed digits thing, which indeed would be a facially plausible result, is that I can't find a reference to this poll anywhere but this website. So my reasonable conclusion, is that it is ersatz, and maybe are numbers for some other race. I will let you know if the polling outfit responds to me. This poll was brought to my attention from elsewhere, and inquiring whether any credence should be put on this poll.  I was flattered that someone out there on the Fruited Plain had some confidence in my "expertise."  :P

That doesn't sound right--the Republican down in a very Republican district (R+13 or something like that...the district includes Goshen, which is like the Midwest Bible Belt), in a very Republican year.

stutzman and hayhurst are both good campaigners. but the district is too republican, the year is too anti-democrat and stutzman may be a better candidate than hayhurst.

Thank you, Captain Obvious