Talk Elections

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/10/28/miller_plummets_in_alaska.html


This is certainly an interesting race.

After factoring in the write-in penalty, McAdams might actually be leading this race.  How did the survey treat Murkowski?  Was there no prompting whatsoever?

Seems like a decent way to ask the question.

AHAHAHAHHAAH...I would just love to see Boxer or Murray lose and then McAdams win to make it GOP+9.

Not to be, um, skeptical ... but I definitely want to see another poll here.

They treated the question of "how do you poll Murkowski" well, but I disagree that it's a well-constructed poll question in general. They failed to attach party designations to the names, and that's a glaring omission.

On edit: It appears that this is not the first time their polling has shown Miller in third.

ROFL

If this flips Dem, this will officially be the most hilarious election cycle this century.:P

What is Hays Research's history and do they usually poll for one party or another?

I've seen some pretty absurd polls, but this one takes the cake!

I don't think so, really. Miller has ran one of the worst campaigns since Martha Coakley, and is, uh, a flawed candidate, to put it lightly.

Miller is terribly flawed, but if Murkowski throws this race away due to her own vanity she should be punished.  I like what happened to William Wallace.

Go check 2008 Presidential elections polling board

Now this is very interesting.

They had McCain and Obama statistically tied in Alaska on November 2nd.

LOLOLOLOL.

Why they hell is this even in the database?

Looks like it's a poll of adults, not even registered voters.

This might turn out to be the Hawaii presidential race of 2004, real close to flipping to the other party. I really, really hope McAdams can win this.

I could go ask six people on the street how they feel about the race and it would be about as legitimate as this "poll."

The poll obviously has a lot of... issues... but I wouldn't be too surprised if Miller started nosediving. Even Alaskans can only take so much crazy. Hopefully someone else polls here before Tuesday.

Lolno. Just lolno.

     A poll of adults for an election in five days? Now that's pointless.

Here´s the release:

http://www.haysresearch.com/page2/page30/page30.html

They did 4 seperate polls with 500 Likely Voters each and Miller is going down rapidely and McAdams up sharply.

LMAO @ Miller's disapprovals.
He's just a senate candidate and he is in >60% range.

Wow.  And people are taking this poll seriously?

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Murkowski wins. Don't know why the Democrats are celebrating though. Miller is precisely the sort of person you want in the senate so you can sh**t on them non stop.

But then again the Democrats are pussies and would probably fail at even that so nevermind.

I meant disapprovals ;)
Which is exactly why I was laughing.

That's what I meant too . . .

Miller's dissaprovals are completely understandable. The guy has a freaking militia that takes down reporters that ask questions. I don't think even normal Republicans like that kind of stuff.

     I think the Democrats are hoping that people forget about writing a candidate in & just vote for McAdams.

Unfavorables, not disapprovals.

Yeah,true.
"Disapprovals" is used exclusively when someone is in office,right? Man I need to practice my english more...

It has nothing to do with knowing English. Almost everyone outside of the political sphere probably don't know the difference between "disapproval" and "unfavorable." You just need to brush up on your American political lingo.  :P

"Approval" = I approve of the job so-and-so is doing in office (and it doesn't really have any meaning for someone not in office)
"Favorable" = I have a favorable impression of so-and-so

They usually track pretty closely, but they don't have to.  For example, in the later years of the Clinton administration, people thought he did a good job as prez, but that he was scum in his personal life.  So his job approval #s were markedly higher than his favorability.

Of course, about 80% of the forum seems oblivious to the distinction (regardless of what their native language is), and this is a political board!  I just brought it up because I'm nitpicky.  :)

Thanks for correcting me anyway...one never stops learning ;)

I guess you could look at the trendlines to see movement?

But yes, this is trash.

This poll was paid for (http://community.adn.com/adn/node/153984) by IBEW Local 1547, which has backed McAdams.  Caveat emptor.

This is one of the few bright spots for the Democrats. How many voters will get the polling place and decide not to vote for Murkowski because she's not on the ballot?

The GOP establishment seems to be coming to the conclusion that Murkowski can win. Of course, they'd be fine with this and in fact prefer it.

I'd to see control of the Senate come down to the intent of write-in voters. It'd be Lizard People x1000.

I predict that Miller will win this one going away, with the Democrat and the bitch fighting it out for a distant second.

Miller is probably the most disgusting candidate the Republicans nominated this year (and that is saying a lot), so it'll be nice to see him go down.

Someone didn't read the "poll."  ;)

Oh, haha. I still wouldn't be surprised at all if he were in 3rd place right now, considering he's had nothing but scandal after scandal the past two weeks.

I read that the AK Supreme Court decided to pass out a list of write in candidates at polling places.
If this is true, it shoud help Murkowski...

From what I understand, they TEMPORARILY allowed it pending hearing of oral arguments, which are scheduled for today.  As of right now, the votes of those who asked for the list are being segregated.  But elections officials claim that logistically can't be done on election day.