Title: Maine Republicans Closing Fast Post by: SamInTheSouth on October 29, 2010, 06:00:03 PM Critical Insights (http://www.pressherald.com/news/Scontras-edges-ahead-of-Pingree-in-latest-poll.html) has Republican Dean Scontras up four points over Chellie Pingree in ME-01.
Just a week ago another poll (http://www.criticalinsights.com/assets/CriticalInsightsTrackingSurveyFall2010.pdf) had Scontras just five points behind Pingree. In ME-02 Jason Levesque is within four points of Mike Michaud according to Critical Insights (http://www.pressherald.com/news/New-poll-Levesque-surges-close-to-Michaud.html)
How strange would that be to have all Republican delegation to Congress? Title: Re: Maine Republicans Closing Fast Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 29, 2010, 06:34:12 PM Yeah, so now it's a 19-point swing over two weeks in ME-01. Sure.
Title: Re: Maine Republicans Closing Fast Post by: cinyc on October 29, 2010, 06:35:59 PM Recent polls have put Republicans in front or within striking distance in ME-01, ME-02, NH-01, NH-02, MA-04, MA-10, RI-01, CT-04 and CT-05. And who knows what's going on in some of the other under-the-radar MA districts.
New England is shaping up to be a potential Democratic bloodbath. Not bad for a region with zero Republican Congressmen right now. Title: Re: Maine Republicans Closing Fast Post by: cinyc on October 29, 2010, 06:37:28 PM Yeah, so now it's a 19-point swing over two weeks in ME-01. Sure. Maine is one of those 2 CD states where pollsters split 500-600 statewide LV poll samples to provide CD-level polling, leading to high MoEs - usually around 6%. That almost always leads to higher variation than usual. Title: Re: Maine Republicans Closing Fast Post by: DrScholl on October 29, 2010, 07:23:50 PM I do think that the swings do look a bit odd, since swings like that don't generally occur with an a matter of weeks. I would take these with a grain of salt.
Title: Re: Maine Republicans Closing Fast Post by: Zarn on October 29, 2010, 07:27:13 PM The New England and NJ swings seem to reflect what happened with Brown and Coakley. Trending GOP out of nowhere, it seems.
I don't know how NY and PA been trending. Title: Re: Maine Republicans Closing Fast Post by: tpfkaw on October 29, 2010, 08:01:19 PM Yeah, so now it's a 19-point swing over two weeks in ME-01. Sure. Happened with Brown/Coakley. Title: Re: Maine Republicans Closing Fast Post by: ajc0918 on October 29, 2010, 08:26:17 PM What the hell is this sh!#?
LePage coattails!?!?! Title: Re: Maine Republicans Closing Fast Post by: Zarn on October 29, 2010, 08:59:30 PM LePage coattails!?!?! Everybody loves zee French. Title: Re: Maine Republicans Closing Fast Post by: nhmagic on October 29, 2010, 09:22:19 PM Its not a fluke poll, though it may overestimate Scontras a bit. The district is D+8, but very contrarian. I suspect they're about even. Pingree has been getting hit hard for a lot of things including the jet trips with her husband and in an eco-friendly district, those predisposed to her might decide just to not vote instead of pull the lever for her. She's also a physical manifestation of a "rich liberal" when Mainers are unemployed. That sort of style doesn't play well here - I work in her district, particularly in her stomping grounds - not hearing a lot of good things from people who voted for her the last time.
As for Michaud, I think hes good to go, but he still is in a D+3 district and could be swept away. I highly doubt it. Michaud's got a huge presence name wise and is pretty well liked. Title: Re: Maine Republicans Closing Fast Post by: tpfkaw on October 29, 2010, 09:26:27 PM I hope Levesque wins. He's one of the best GOPhers this cycle.
Title: Re: Maine Republicans Closing Fast Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on October 29, 2010, 11:06:58 PM What the hell is this sh!#? LePage coattails!?!?! A guy whose pulling around 40% is not going to have coattails. Title: Re: Maine Republicans Closing Fast Post by: SvenssonRS on October 29, 2010, 11:09:40 PM What the hell is this sh!#? LePage coattails!?!?! A guy whose pulling around 40% is not going to have coattails. Correction: a guy in completely good standing to lose to an indy is not going to have coattails. Title: Re: Maine Republicans Closing Fast Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 29, 2010, 11:24:39 PM Welch has got to be sh**tting his pants. After all, as goes Maine goes Vermont.
Title: Re: Maine Republicans Closing Fast Post by: Hash on October 30, 2010, 07:44:14 AM LePage coattails!?!?! Everybody loves zee French. LePage makes me ashamed to be French. Title: Re: Maine Republicans Closing Fast Post by: Zarn on October 30, 2010, 09:58:37 AM LePage coattails!?!?! Everybody loves zee French. LePage makes me ashamed to be French. I'm French, too... well Franco-American. (Cuban-American also) :) I'm very sexy. lol I don't think he is any worse than some of the politicians we see in the mother country. Royal and Le Pen, for example. Title: Re: Maine Republicans Closing Fast Post by: Vepres on October 30, 2010, 10:47:43 AM I guess my gut feeling is looking to be right yet again!
Title: Re: Maine Republicans Closing Fast Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 22, 2010, 08:28:07 AM I win this round.
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