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Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Election What-ifs? => Topic started by: Miles on November 09, 2010, 06:45:16 pm



Title: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 09, 2010, 06:45:16 pm
Hi guys, I did a 2020 timeline on the predictions thread and everyone seemed to enjoy it, so I thought I'd make another one!

I'm going to start with the 2011 Gubernatorial elections and then work my way to 2018 or 2020.

Comments are encouraged and welcomed.

Enjoy!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 09, 2010, 06:49:13 pm
Can't wait to see it start, Miles. That 2020 scenario was excellent.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 09, 2010, 06:50:12 pm
MAY 2011

Going into the 2011 gubernatorial elections, all three incumbents are popular:

KY-Steve Beshear(D)
Approve-51%
Dissapprove- 42%

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNnWfFohckI/AAAAAAAABb0/GWT9Mme0jBk/s1600/SteveBeshear.jpg)


LA-Bobby Jindal(R)
Approve-59%
Dissapprove-37%

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNnWJoVImaI/AAAAAAAABbs/ureuMtfMKt0/s1600/bobbjweb.jpg)


MS-Haley Barbour(R) [term-limited]
Approve-61%
Disapprove- 35%

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNnWxCn-EFI/AAAAAAAABb8/X0EMvNBSfXk/s1600/babbour2%2B%25281%2529.jpg)


In all three states, Obama’s approval rating is hovering around 30%:

KY-35/58
LA-29/64
MS-30/63

KY:
Despite Obama’s -23 net approval in KY, Dixiecrat Steve Beshear remains ahead of his two announced opponents by double digits in the polls, State Legislator Dave Williams and Congressman Brett Guthrie in the polls. While the RGA was initially eying Beshear’s seat, GOP leadership ultimately decided to save its funding for more competitive races in 2012.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNnXmkD-pLI/AAAAAAAABcM/iU-Wy_igW3s/s1600/BESHEARI.png)

LA:
Jindal, due to his charisma and Obama’s deep unpopularity in LA, has not drawn any serious competition. The only announced Democrat seeking Jindal’s seat is former Congressman Don Cazayoux of Baton Rouge; Cazayouz is pretty much running to build name recognition. Former judge Chet Traylor, a Republican challenger to David Vitter in 2010, has also filed to run. Jindal has opened with a wide lead in the polls and is heavily favored to win a jungle primary outright, without a runoff.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNnXmSsg6LI/AAAAAAAABcE/PDmJIfPXPIA/s1600/JINDALi.png)


MS:
While Haley Barbour is among the most popular governors in the nation, the GOP primary to pick his successor is heating up. Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant is seen as the establishment favorite, but the Tea Party Express has come in for States Treasurer Tate Reeves. The GOP primary is turning into an all-out proxy war reminiscent of the 2010 GA GOP governor’s primary or the 2010 DE Senate GOP primary.

2012 Republican candidates are trying to put last minute victories on their resumes by endorsing either Reeves or Bryant. Sarah Palin, Jim DeMint, Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich put their weight behind Reeves while Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty , Mitch Daniels and John McCain endorsed Bryant. Barbour would not endorse in the primary. Mississippi’s GOP Senators are divided on this race as well; Roger Wicker, fearing a tea party challenge in 2012, endorsed Reeves, but Thad Cochran chose Bryant. The Tea Party Express has reserved $3 million for Reeves’ campaign and a combined total of 2 million has already been spent by both the candidates on negative ads.

Sensing a harsh GOP primary, the Democrats drafted longtime south-Mississippi Congressman Gene Taylor. Taylor, who was narrowly swept up in 2010 GOP wave, often won reelection to the House with 70% or better and still remains favorable. Even better for the Democrats, Taylor will be uncontested in the primary. Taking advantage of the divided Republicans, Taylor has been competitive in the polls by touting his conservative voting record while in the house and emphasizing his leadership during the BP oil leak. Taylor’s main message: "I’m not Obama!!!”

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNnYCc6wr3I/AAAAAAAABcc/XDPJr6atokg/s1600/brt.png)

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNnXnOMNAxI/AAAAAAAABcU/_ljKhGUh9Lo/s1600/msp.png)





Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 09, 2010, 06:55:38 pm
It looks like the big contest is going to be Mississippi. I'm thinking a bloody GOP Primary could hand the election to Taylor.

He would win big in Bennie Thompson's district, probably pretty good in his own (not being sent to rubberstamp Pelosi anymore), but he needs to work on NE MS.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on November 09, 2010, 06:58:40 pm
By God, this is awesome already. :D ;D :D

Keep it going, and let me know if you need any help. I am a timeline maniac.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 09, 2010, 07:09:13 pm
It looks like the big contest is going tobe Mississippi. I'm thinking a bloody GOP Primary could hand the election to Taylor.

He would win big in Bennie Thompson's district, probably pretty good in his own (not being sent to rubberstamp Pelosi anymore), but he needs to work on NE MS.

PPP released a survey in May asking whether MS voters would be willing to support Taylor over a generic Republican.

Mississippi polling by Cong. District:
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNnhScLzT2I/AAAAAAAABck/V9sD47-UxFQ/s1600/img.php.png)

Generally speaking, would you support Democrat Gene Taylor for Governor?

District I
Yes-43%
No-52%

District II
Yes-62%
No-32%

District III
Yes-41%
N0-50%

District IV
Yes-53%
No-42%




Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 09, 2010, 07:14:34 pm
It looks like the big contest is going tobe Mississippi. I'm thinking a bloody GOP Primary could hand the election to Taylor.

He would win big in Bennie Thompson's district, probably pretty good in his own (not being sent to rubberstamp Pelosi anymore), but he needs to work on NE MS.

PPP released a survey in May asking whether MS voters would be willing to support Taylor over a generic Republican.

Mississippi polling by Cong. District:
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNnhScLzT2I/AAAAAAAABck/V9sD47-UxFQ/s1600/img.php.png)

Generally speaking, would you support Democrat Gene Taylor for Governor?

District I
Yes-43%
No-52%

District II
Yes-62%
No-32%

District III
Yes-41%
N0-50%

District IV
Yes-53%
No-42%




So it's YES statewide by a 49.75-44.00 margin. That's good, and the primary hasn't gotten bloody yet!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 09, 2010, 07:19:32 pm
By God, this is awesome already. :D ;D :D

Keep it going, and let me know if you need any help. I am a timeline maniac.

Thanks Svenssen! Just sit back and enjoy! lol


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 09, 2010, 08:06:12 pm
On the national scene, things aren't looking particularly good for Democrats;  a generic Republican would get the bare 270 EVs against Obama.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNnuQyL8X0I/AAAAAAAABc8/s0Tx1V0Tv2w/s1600/ACTUAL2012%2B-%2BCopy.png)



Obama Approval:

Gallup: 44/50

Quinnipiac: 44/51

PPP: 45/49

Obama Favorables

Gallup: 46/48

Quinnipiac: 47/49

PPP: 48/47


GOP Favorables:

Romney: 43/40

Huckabee: 42/43

Palin: 36/51

Thune: 38/34

Barbour: 37/40

Gingrich: 38/46

Daniels: 35/24





Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 09, 2010, 08:07:31 pm
On the national scene, things aren't looking particularly good for Democrats;  a generic Republican would get the bare 270 EVs against Obama.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNnuQyL8X0I/AAAAAAAABc8/s0Tx1V0Tv2w/s1600/ACTUAL2012%2B-%2BCopy.png)



Obama Approval:

Gallup: 44/50

Quinnipiac: 44/51

PPP: 45/49

Obama Favorables

Gallup: 46/48

Quinnipiac: 47/49

PPP: 48/47


GOP Favorables:

Romney: 43/40

Huckabee: 42/43

Palin: 36/51

Thune: 38/34

Barbour: 37/40

Gingrich: 38/46

Daniels: 35/24





Not good for Taylor if his opponent can tie him to Obama.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario) on November 09, 2010, 08:07:47 pm
This is very good. Keep it coming!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on November 09, 2010, 08:15:22 pm
This is very good. Keep it coming!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 10, 2010, 12:05:03 pm
JULY 2011

By July, the focal point of the elections is Mississippi. Louisiana and Kentucky have devolved into nothing more than sideshows; Beshear is still leading by double-digits and Jindal is far ahead. However, here are the updated LA and KY numbers.

KY:
KY State Senate President David Williams and his running mate Richie Farmer won the GOP primary. Dan Mongiardo, after a 2010 primary loss, steps down as Beshear’s running mate and is replaced by Louisville mayor Jerry Abramson. The Democrats lead by an average of 10 points.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNrPCROoh5I/AAAAAAAABdE/XxCjRgxOZDU/s1600/BESHT.png)

Beshear Approval: 54/43
Obama Approval: 35/57

LA:

This race remained very static; Jindal’s numbers continue to hover slightly under 60% while Cazayoux is stuck in the mid-30’s. Traylor’s campaign has fallen apart, not that he had much of an effort to begin with. Obama’s already poor approval in LA has continued to slide.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNrPCyYkixI/AAAAAAAABdM/0BtHise5ZtI/s1600/JINDALi.png)

Jindal Approval: 57/37
Obama Approval: 28/65


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Progressive on November 10, 2010, 12:32:19 pm
LOVE. please continue.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 10, 2010, 12:38:12 pm
BREAKING NEWS  BREAKING NEWS  BREAKING NEWS  BREAKING NEWS



July 20, 2011-After having a major falling-out with progressive Democrats in the Senate over healthcare and education funding, Joe Lieberman schedules a press conference. It seems we have our first major development of the 2012 Senate elections:

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNrXCRfj6yI/AAAAAAAABdU/yF3lHdCa9Co/s1600/lie.jpg)


“After witnessing the intense partisanship displayed by some of my unapologetically liberal colleagues, such as Senator Franken, Senator Durbin and Senator Boxer, I have come to a few conclusions about my future in this chamber. First, I realize that my reelection outlook in 2012 as an independent is very gloomy.  Second, for years I have been looking for an alternative to the ever-more partisan Democratic Party.  Thus, I will be seeking reelection to a 5th term in the Senate as a Republican. As such, I will be leaving the Democratic caucus, of which I’ve been a member for 23 years, and I will be joining my friends on the Republican side.”


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on November 10, 2010, 01:15:43 pm
This definitely looks good so far. Reelect Joe! :D


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 10, 2010, 01:25:44 pm
From an electoral perspective, Lieberman's swtich was pretty obvious, as he trails badly as an Independent:

PPP hypothetical polls- June, 2011

Lieberman*-16%
Himes[D]- 40%
Rell[R]-32%

Lieberman*-17%
Himes[D]-41%
Foley[R]-31%

Lieberman*-19%
Murphy[D]-39%
Rell[R]-34%

Lieberman*-17%
Murphy[D]- 40%
Foley[R]-33%

Quinnipiac generic poll-May 2011

Lieberman*-20%
Generic D- 44%
Generic R- 27%

Lieberman Overall Favorables- 31/59


Lieberman Favorablity by party:

Democrats: 24/68
Republicans: 48/40
Independents: 36/58


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: MorningInAmerica on November 10, 2010, 01:27:55 pm
This sounds pretty interesting. Nothing about the presidential candidates yet? Or does this time line focus on non-presidential political happenings?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 10, 2010, 01:31:52 pm
This sounds pretty interesting. Nothing about the presidential candidates yet? Or does this time line focus on non-presidential political happenings?

I'll get to the 2012 Presidential race soon. Right now I'm doing the 2011elections and early developments from the 2012 Senate races.

Trust me...we're gonna have fun with the presidential races!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Barnes on November 10, 2010, 01:52:15 pm
I like this so far! ;)

Lieberman is going down in the Senate race. ;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on November 10, 2010, 02:36:58 pm
Good for Lieberman! :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on November 10, 2010, 04:11:42 pm
This definitely looks good so far. Reelect Joe! :D


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario) on November 10, 2010, 04:48:49 pm
I hope Lieberman goes down like Specter did. Keep it coming!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 10, 2010, 06:13:37 pm
LATE JULY 2011

Meanwhile in MS, the GOP contest, which is leading up to an early August primary, has gotten downright nasty. It is estimated that Bryant and Reeves have spent a combined total of $9 million, most of which has been spent on negative advertizing. The obvious beneficiary of the divisive primary has been Gene Taylor, who has crept ahead of both Republicans.

Taylor has been running a great campaign operation.  Taylor plans to do the majority of his campaigning in the 2nd and 4th Congressional districts; he plans to elevate black turnout in the heavily Democratic 2nd District while consolidating his standing in his native south-Mississippi 4th District.

The Tea Party express has spent upwards of $3.5 million on Reeves campaign and has deployed several conservative heavyweights on the campaign trail:

Sarah Palin
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNsi88CzD2I/AAAAAAAABes/gtLGy9HWGyE/s1600/clearwaterImage2.jpg)

 “The great state of Mississippi needs Tate Reeves’ strong pro-America leadership; as Treasurer, he worked for reduced taxes, less government intrusion and he’s advised reigning in spending. Tate’s opponent is a typical Mississippi RINO and he’s been one of the same-‘ol-same-‘ol big-spending Washington-type Republicans.”

Sharron Angle
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNsi8PIH2iI/AAAAAAAABek/K7OfwJYuwnk/s1600/Sharron_Angle_370x278.jpg)

 “Tate Reeves will stand up for Mississippi’s conservative principles and he will use common-sense remedies to deal with the state’s issues. Tate has a battle-tested, war-ready conservative record.  There is really no reason why this primary should be this close…Mississippi Republicans need to man-up and vote for Tate Reeves.”

Marco Rubio
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNsi7pXIXoI/AAAAAAAABeU/Xs6UBTE6e7g/s1600/marco-rubio%2B%25281%2529.jpg)

 “In one candidate, Mississippi has a candidate who will defend the Constitutional principles that made this country great. That candidate is Tate Reeves. Tate and I both came from low beginnings but thanks to our limited-government, freedom-loving believes, we made it.”

Conversely, the members Mississippi and national GOP establishment have made many endorsements on behalf of Phil Bryant:

Thad Cochran
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNsi7w6pHOI/AAAAAAAABec/J6L2eIA-gxM/s1600/77653734.jpg)

“In my 33 years representing this great state in the Senate, I have never come across a better Lt. Governor than Phil Bryant. Phil, Haley and I have worked to keep Mississippi strong and Phil is the only candidate who has the executive experience to keep Mississippi going strong. I look forward to working with him”

Mitt Romney
(http://i.cnn.net/money/galleries/2007/moneymag/0712/gallery.social_security.moneymag/images/mitt_romney.jpg)

“When I first came down to Mississippi, I was very impressed with the state’s overall standing in the nation; Mississippi owes much of its prosperity to the leadership of Haley Barbour and Phil Bryant. I am confident that under Bryant Mississippi will continue to make strides and lead the south.”

Trent Lott
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNsifqKQSwI/AAAAAAAABeM/J91PDXlgly0/s1600/lott.jpg)

“My friends, Mississippi needs Phil Bryant. It would be absolutely foolish to elect a candidate with the inexperience of Tate Reeves. This country faces tough times, we need more governors like Phil Bryant to get out of this ditch that Obama and the Democrat party have left us in.”


Seizing the opportunity to elect a rare Democratic governor in red Mississippi, Dixecrats are very excited to campaign for Gene Taylor. The national DGA has deployed many Dixiecrats to go to bat for Taylor.

Mary Landrieu
(http://images.politico.com/global/news/090611_landrieu_ap_297.jpg)

“It is the best interest of our Gulf Coast that Gene Taylor be elected this state’s next governor. In Congress, Gene and I fought to save jobs in out Gulf Coast fishing and oil industries and we worked to hold BP accountable. Gene has served as south Mississippi’s voice for years; he deserves a promotion.”

Marion Berry
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNsjfcOyDHI/AAAAAAAABe8/DQ3q9TocB8c/s1600/mberry.jpg)

“’ ‘Folks, I’ve worked with Gene Taylor in Congress for fourteen years. Let me tell you, Gene is the man! In Congress, Gene and I worked to bring more agriculture and health funding to areas of the south like Arkansas and Mississippi. Gene has been standing up for Mississippi for more than 20 years. The man deserves a second chance!”

Mike Beebe
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/26/MikeBeebeGovernorCropped.jpg)

“As a governor of a southern state, I know what it takes to lead.  Gene Taylor is an excellent choice for Mississippi. Neither of Gene’s opponents have his impressive legislative record or his strong bipartisan appeal.”

Joe Manchin
(http://secularright.org/SR/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/111001_joe_manchin_ap_328.jpg)

“I am confident that Gene will do here in Mississippi what my administration did in West Virginia; we worked across the aisle and legislated in a fiscally conservative way to create record prosperity and a budget surplus.”


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 10, 2010, 06:21:07 pm


Current Mississippi Polls:

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNsn0LhRXuI/AAAAAAAABfE/JJ9r9VT9D3c/s1600/2011ms.png)

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNsn1FapfLI/AAAAAAAABfU/k85l4EWemfc/s1600/TYBR.png)

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TNsn0gl7ioI/AAAAAAAABfM/-kqgRXm2Cs8/s1600/TRRV.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 10, 2010, 07:00:54 pm
Gene Taylor's chances are looking good.

I'm glad Lieberman is finally where he belongs.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 11, 2010, 03:18:04 pm
I am surprised. this TL is really good, and it's very simple to understand (especially for a spanish speaker xD). Thanks for writting.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 12, 2010, 09:41:08 am
LATE JULY 2011


Politico Reports:

"There have been solid reports from within Democratic ranks that not only Olympia Snowe, but Susan Collins as well will switch parties. Ever since Lieberman left the Democratic ranks, Dems have been aggressively luring Olympia Snowe to join their caucus. Collins, who will be in a similar electoral situation as Snowe in 2014, is heavily considering changing parties at this early junction to avoid accusations that she is  political chameleon."


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 12, 2010, 09:45:09 am
LATE JULY 2011


Politico Reports:

"There have been solid reports from within Democratic ranks that not only Olympia Snowe, but Susan Collins as well will switch parties. Ever since Lieberman left the Democratic ranks, Dems have been aggressively luring Olympia Snowe to join their caucus. Collins, who will be in a similar electoral situation as Snowe in 2014, is heavily considering changing parties at this early junction to avoid accusations that she is  political chameleon."

This is great. The two Maine women are far better than Lieberman.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 12, 2010, 11:40:29 am
25 JULY 2011

A few days after the rampant rumors of both Maine senators changing parties, Maine pollster Critical Insights ran a series of hypothetical polls.

Critical Insights- July 22-24, 2011

Preview:

"Both Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins trail badly in early GOP primary polling. Snowe, who is up in 2012 trails by 24 points over a generic conservative challenger; Collins does only slightly better, though she still stands at a 21-point deficit. Fortunately, both senators remain on positive ground with moderates and Democrats. Based on these numbers and the strength of the Maine Tea Party, the clearest path for reelection for both senators would be to abandon the GOP."

Republican Primary Polls

In a 2012 Republican primary would you vote to re-nominate Olympia Snowe over a more conservative challenger?

Yes-35%
No-59%


In a 2014 Republican primary would you vote to re-nominate Susan Collins over a more conservative challenger?

Yes-37%
No-58%


General Election Polls:

Would you be open to supporting Olympia Snowe if she ran for reelection as a Democrat in 2012?

Yes-58%
No-33%

Would you be open to supporting Susan Collins if she ran for reelection as a Democrat in 2014?

Yes-57%
No-35%


Democratic Primary Polls

In a Democratic primary, would you rather moderate Olypmia Snowe over a more liberal challenger?

Yes-49%
No-39%

In a Democratic primary, would you rather moderate Susan Collins over a more liberal challenger?

Yes-47%
No-40%




Similarly in neighboring CT, Quinnipiac University conducted hypothetical polls testing Lieberman's electoral strength.

Quinnipiac University Polling Center- July 22-23, 2011


Preview:

Despite  Joe Lieberman's party switch, he still remains in weak shape heading into 2012. His favorably among Democrats is, expectedly, at a record low. Lieberman is still widely disliked by independents and captures only a plurality of support from his new party, the GOP; he also is set to narrowly lose a GOP primary. Its pretty safe to say that the odds are heavily against Lieberman making a 5th trip to DC as CT's Senator, as he trails badly in general election polls.

Republican Primary Poll

Would you support Republican Senator Joe Lieberman in a GOP primary or a challenger?

Lieberman-40%
Challenger(s)-50%


General Election Polls

In the general Senate election in 2012, would you vote for Republican Joe Lieberman, Democrat Chris Murphy, or are you unsure?

Lieberman(R)*-32%
Murphy(D)-52%
Other/unsure-16%

In the general Senate election in 2012, would you vote for Republican Joe Lieberman, Democrat Jim Himes, or are you unsure?

Lieberman(R)*-31%
Himes(D)-55%
Other/unsure-14%

Lieberman Favorables:

Democrats- 19/72
Independents- 28/60
Republicans- 47/37




Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 12, 2010, 11:43:41 am
Fantastic! Ilike Olympia and I don't dislike susan. so, I'm happy with this ;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 12, 2010, 01:36:02 pm
27 JULY 2011

With under a week to go until the MS governor's primaries, Gene Taylor gets 2 major boosts.

-Retired NFL star and south Mississippi native Brett Favre will be making frequent campaign stops for Taylor. Favre, a celebrity in his home state, remains very popular in his native Gulf Coast region. In the past, Favre has made donations to Taylor (this is actually true) and now he has time to campaign. Favre will help Taylor consolidate his south Mississippi base and help voter turnout in the Democratic 2nd District by energizing black voters.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TN2IHhiQYFI/AAAAAAAABf8/tiI3DeMY1rI/s1600/favre.png)


-The NRA, which has a history of endorsing Taylor and Mississippi Dixiecrats, endorses Taylor again. This will help Taylor in central and northern MS, areas where he is performing the weakest.

(http://aviewfromtheright.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/nra_logo2.gif)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Barnes on November 12, 2010, 01:36:46 pm
Very nice so far! I really like how you're governing the 2011 Gubernatorial elections. I don't think I've ever seen another timeline that's done that. :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 12, 2010, 02:21:06 pm
1 AUGUST 2011

Our first cumulative look at the 2012 Senate races:

This assuming that Snowe and Collins do change parties.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TN2S-0mSnDI/AAAAAAAABgM/ooUNe9IvbxM/s1600/202%2B-%2BCopy%2B%25282%2529.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 12, 2010, 03:12:51 pm
It looks good for Taylor...

And Ben Nelson and Lieberman are losing. :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Kevin on November 12, 2010, 04:02:55 pm
1 AUGUST 2011

Our first cumulative look at the 2012 Senate races:

This assuming that Snowe and Collins do change parties.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TN2S-0mSnDI/AAAAAAAABgM/ooUNe9IvbxM/s1600/202%2B-%2BCopy%2B%25282%2529.png)

I'd move Florida, Montana, and North Dakota to tossup given the environment for those incumbents.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 12, 2010, 04:12:01 pm
Tester and Nelson are still popular.

Tester's last approval rating was 54%. Tester lied low during the healthcare debate, thats why he's still on good ground. Baucus was in the center of the debate and his approvals plummeted.

Bill Nelson has as slightly positive approval as 37/35. PPP has him comfortably ahead of Connie Mack and George LeMieux. I can justify Lean D for FL.

Conrad is a total unknown. However, he almost got 70% in 2006, so I'm giving him the benfit of the doubt.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 13, 2010, 10:33:45 am
27 JULY 2011

With under a week to go until the MS governor's primaries, Gene Taylor gets 2 major boosts.

-Retired NFL star and south Mississippi native Brett Favre will be making frequent campaign stops for Taylor. Favre, a celebrity in his home state, remains very popular in his native Gulf Coast region. In the past, Favre has made donations to Taylor (this is actually true) and now he has time to campaign. Favre will help Taylor consolidate his south Mississippi base and help voter turnout in the Democratic 2nd District by energizing black voters.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TN2IHhiQYFI/AAAAAAAABf8/tiI3DeMY1rI/s1600/favre.png)


-The NRA, which has a history of endorsing Taylor and Mississippi Dixiecrats, endorses Taylor again. This will help Taylor in central and northern MS, areas where he is performing the weakest.

(http://aviewfromtheright.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/nra_logo2.gif)


Also, Brett Favre's brother was (and I think maybe still is?) mayor of Bay St. Louis, the town Gene Taylor lives in.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: albaleman on November 13, 2010, 10:36:36 am
27 JULY 2011

With under a week to go until the MS governor's primaries, Gene Taylor gets 2 major boosts.

-Retired NFL star and south Mississippi native Brett Favre will be making frequent campaign stops for Taylor. Favre, a celebrity in his home state, remains very popular in his native Gulf Coast region. In the past, Favre has made donations to Taylor (this is actually true) and now he has time to campaign. Favre will help Taylor consolidate his south Mississippi base and help voter turnout in the Democratic 2nd District by energizing black voters.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TN2IHhiQYFI/AAAAAAAABf8/tiI3DeMY1rI/s1600/favre.png)


Oh god. Gene probably had to stop over at his house 50 times and kneel down in worship to him to get him to do it. And CNN probably gave him 24/7 news coverage.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: albaleman on November 13, 2010, 10:39:11 am
Great timeline thread, Miles. Keep up the good work!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 13, 2010, 12:54:25 pm
I knew you'd like the Brett Favre part, albaleman!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario) on November 13, 2010, 01:49:29 pm
I find the part about Brett Favre being retired to be completely unrealistic. :P

Great timeline so far. Keep it coming!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 13, 2010, 03:22:56 pm
1 AUGUST 2011

With 1 day until the GOP primary in Mississippi, its anyone's guess:

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TN7x4auXV4I/AAAAAAAABg8/mlPXJqgCU-g/s1600/2011ms%2B-%2BCopy.png)



Taylor still holds small leads over both Republicans.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TN7x49TA2qI/AAAAAAAABhM/80XL5N-K-uI/s1600/TYBR.png)

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TN7x4rVISLI/AAAAAAAABhE/F--yV4wcSg4/s1600/TRRV.png)


The effects of the GOP primary are most obvious in the favorable numbers of the candidates; Taylor remains positively viewed , but either Republican will enter the general election on negative ground. Taylor stands at 53/38...both of the Republican's favorables are almost a mirror image of Taylor's.

Favorables:

Taylor- 53/38
Bryant-39/51
Reeves-37/52


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on November 13, 2010, 05:32:39 pm
For the sake of this timeline...go Taylor. There, I said it. ;)

(Speaking of conservadems: *cough*FreudenthalforSenate2014*cough*)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 14, 2010, 11:32:50 am
2 AUGUST 2011

Primary night in Mississippi. With 98% of precincts reporting Reeves is clinging onto a slim lead. The AP says that they will not be able to call the race until Wednesday morning.

Republican  Primary

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TOAOzg4-kGI/AAAAAAAABh8/-DrCuy-LPk0/s1600/revb.png)



Democratic Primary

Taylor-100% [uncontested]


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 14, 2010, 10:43:47 pm
I hope we get a recount...


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 15, 2010, 12:34:17 am
3 AUGUST 2011

With 100% of the GOP primary votes in, Reeves has expanded his lead to 50.34% to Bryant’s 49.66%. On Wednesday morning, Bryant concedes:

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TODFHc1Gb6I/AAAAAAAABiU/so_DHKXY6V8/s1600/Inaugural0011.JPG)

“...It is clear that the Tea Party Movement has made significant inroads here in the Magnolia State. While my team knew we were in for a rough battle, sadly, we did not come out on top, as we had planned. I would hope that our next governor practices the fiscally conservative and principled type of governance that I have fought for. I want to extend my thanks to my campaign workers, everyone who chipped in to my campaign and my family. Regardless of the final outcome of this race, I have enjoyed my time as your Lieutenant Governor and I and proud of the 15-year record I have of serving the people of Mississippi….”



The most important part of Bryant's concession speech: He doesn't endorse Reeves!!




Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 15, 2010, 01:20:42 am
4 AUGUST 2011

After its Mississippi Primary victory, the Tea Party Express releases its 2012 Senate hit list...


(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TODNf3I0qwI/AAAAAAAABjE/Iem-Lo6--Mc/s1600/TeaPartyExpressIII-2010.jpg)


***WANTED***

****TRAITOROUS****



OLYMPIA SNOWE-MAINE
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TODNJf7gOSI/AAAAAAAABic/ogWu7eKB4Kg/s1600/img-cs---olympia-snowe_073535859293.jpg)


ORRIN HATCH-UTAH
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TODNfrP_UyI/AAAAAAAABi0/74ij7sM1_qQ/s1600/s-HATCH-KENNEDY-large.jpg)


KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON-TEXAS
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TODNJraIxKI/AAAAAAAABik/L4UfrpsIJDY/s1600/Kay_Hutchison_JCC2.jpg)


DICK LUGAR-INDIANA
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TODNfyfu1uI/AAAAAAAABi8/aoqDCmdo8dU/s1600/051102_lugarObama_hmed_3p.grid-6x2.jpg)


BOB CORKER-TENNESSEE
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TODNJ7AgetI/AAAAAAAABis/5WiIl5iTCeI/s1600/UNIONBUSTERSenator%2BBob%2BCorker.jpg)

SCOTT BROWN-MASSACHUSETTS
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TODQ06SWHII/AAAAAAAABjM/M5z4pYFbCTM/s1600/30037_scott-brown-marco-rubio.jpg)




Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on November 15, 2010, 03:33:21 am
My opinion on the hit list...

Snowe - They'd be insane to do it. Free pickup, much?
Hatch - Yes, please. :D
Hutchison - Retires.
Lugar - Retires.
Corker - Again, yes please. :D
Brown - Uh, yeah. Have fun trying to take out a man with a 70% approval rating(which, to be fair, may have changed ittl...).


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 15, 2010, 07:56:57 am
Sounds like a good list. I hope all (except Corker) win.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 15, 2010, 09:58:05 am
Go Gene!!! And Hatch should become an indpeendents (it's the only way to have a non-republican representing Utah!!)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario) on November 15, 2010, 04:08:14 pm
I would support even Hatch and Corker over anything the Tea Party has to offer.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on November 15, 2010, 04:47:39 pm
Snowe - LePage?
Hatch - Chaffetz?
Hutchinson - Perry? Michael Williams?
Lugar - I'd love to see him ousted by no one would be able to get enough momentum to beat him (let alone be crazy enough to run in the first place, except maybe for Hockstetter)
Corker - Blackburn?
Brown - As Svensson said, good luck taking out someone with a 70% approval rating (also as Svensson said, it may have gone down ITTL, but I still assume that it's relatively high)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tpfkaw on November 15, 2010, 04:59:41 pm
Carla Howell is probably the best "Tea Party" challenger to Scott Brown.  She'd have to run as a Republican, though.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 15, 2010, 05:28:39 pm
15 AUGUST 2011

Two weeks after the Mississippi primary, here is where cumulative polling stands:

Kentucky

BESHEAR[D]*- 52%
WILLIAMS[R]-39%
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TOI4P9V_GMI/AAAAAAAABk8/V5GcXfci0zo/s1600/BESHEAR.png)


Louisiana

JINDAL[R]*-60%
CAZAYOUX[D]-35%
Others-2%

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TOI4PoQQDnI/AAAAAAAABk0/QYA1EvvpiZo/s1600/JINDAL.png)


Mississippi

TAYLOR[D]-47%
REEVES[R]^-42%

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TOI4QKJmzwI/AAAAAAAABlE/VTTRAXPZgzw/s1600/TAYL.png)



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on November 15, 2010, 08:27:30 pm
I think the "histlist" is kind of stupid, but...

Anyway, I wouldn't recommend the Tea Party attempt to take out Brown, given that he's pretty much the GOP's only hope for a Senate seat from Massachusetts, and he's at least more Conservative than Ted Kennedy. Ironic, considering that Tea Party momentum is what put Brown in office in the first place.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 15, 2010, 08:48:40 pm
19 AUGUST 2011


The second major development of the 2012 Senate elections occurs when Sen. Bill Nelson announces his retirement.


(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TOHirLxfAfI/AAAAAAAABks/JTD5S77fN3k/s1600/bill.jpg)

"While I have spent the last years serving Floridians in the Senate, I feel that it is my time to bow out. Looking back, I am satisfied with my record and I know that my work has benefited my constituents. I will spend my last year or so in the Senate wrapping up unfinished projects and bringing closure to my tenure in the Senate."


Almost immediately, failed FL Senate candidate Kendrick B. Meek announces his candidacy.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TOHhe1hlsFI/AAAAAAAABkk/PbP-CqRqDzM/s1600/Kendrick%2BMeek%2Bwith%2Breporters.jpg)

"With Senator Nelson's departure Democrats have lost a true advocate, however, now Florida has the opportunity to elect a new Senator. In 2010, we came close but we fell just short of defeating Senator Rubio. We had the support then and we continue to have the support from independents, liberals and conservatives that we need to win in 2012. I'm confident that this 6'2" former state trooper will be the next United States Senator from Florida!"


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: #IAintAfraidOfNoGoats on November 16, 2010, 02:27:54 am
I would support Hostettler to primary Lugar. The Tea Partys best bet if both Pence and Daniels both run for President or Pence runs for governor and Daniels for President. If not be prepared for Jackie Walorski.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 16, 2010, 07:59:25 am
I think the "histlist" is kind of stupid, but...

Anyway, I wouldn't recommend the Tea Party attempt to take out Brown, given that he's pretty much the GOP's only hope for a Senate seat from Massachusetts, and he's at least more Conservative than Ted Kennedy. Ironic, considering that Tea Party momentum is what put Brown in office in the first place.

And look what happened in Deleware. That was the second easies pickup for the GOP and they blew it because of the TP.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 16, 2010, 12:36:55 pm
Could Hatch swith to independent??


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 17, 2010, 12:26:06 am
15 SEPTEMBER 2011

POLLING UPDATES

Obama's performance against a Generic Republican continues to slide:

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TONydMx1tAI/AAAAAAAABlU/VXFsLp62wpc/s1600/ACTUAL2012%2B-%2BCopy.png)

Obama Approval:

PPP:
Approve-45%
Disapprove-48%


Rasmussen (R):
Strongly Approve-26%
Strongly Disapprove-45%

Total Approve-43%
Total Disapprove-57%

Quinnipiac:
Approve:44%
Disapprove:49%



Luckily for Dems, despite his relatively poor performance in the Electoral College and his slightly underwater approvals, Obama leads every probable GOP contender in PPP's cumulative polls. Obama does significantly better when pitted against the actual Republican candidates than a Generic Republican. The electoral college map is turning into nothing more than a visual of Obama's approval rating rather than a representation of an actual 2012 matchup.

Obama:48%
Romney:46%

Obama:47%
Huckabee:45%

Obama:49%
Palin:39%

Obama: 48%
Gingrich: 40%


Republican candidate Favorables (PPP)

Palin: 35/54
Romney: 48/42
Gingrich: 38/52
Huckabee: 44/42

Based on her intellectual capacity, do you think Sarah Palin is qualified to be president?

Yes-37%
No-56%

General Republican Primary Polling:

Palin:22%
Romney:22%
Huckabee:20%
Gingrich:16%

Favorables Among Republican voters:

Palin:76/21
Romney: 60/36
Huckabee: 67/29
Gingrich: 64/31



Generic Congressional Ballot

Gallup
R-47%
D-43%


PPP
R-46%
D-42%


Rasmussen (R)
R-50%
D-40%


Quinnipiac
R-46%
D-44%




Polling in 8 competitive Senate races:

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TON_IGuDWnI/AAAAAAAABl0/tVcDyR4PTuI/s1600/2012c.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 17, 2010, 11:05:03 am
Excellent. But I can't imagine allen doing better than mcdonnell


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 17, 2010, 02:16:25 pm
21 SEPTEMBER 2011

Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana signs into law an Arizona-style immigration law. His already great poll numbers rise, largely due to an energized conservative base in Louisiana.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TOQkp7-QZ2I/AAAAAAAABm8/rjpIn4XdLjw/s1600/bobby_jindal_E_20090413130137.jpg)


"...As for immigration, I will follow the lead of Governor Jan Brewer in Arizona. She has taken action where the Obama Administration has not and for that, I applaud her. We have an illegal immigration problem right here in the the Pelican state. Under my leadership, I hope Louisiana will join Arizona as leader in the fight against illegal immigration and encourage legal immigration to the United States. As your governor, I could not stand by and let this issue hurt our communities, our local businesses and our security any longer. Look, my parents can here as immigrants from India looking for a better life for themselves, me and my family, so can relate firsthand to experiences of immigrants. We can all respect that, but my parents came here legally and lawfully. I see no reason not to hold all our immigrants to that same standard. "


Magellan Strategies Poll- 23 September 2011

Do you approve of the new immigration law signed by Governor Jindal?

Yes-65%
No-30%

Do you approve of the job Bobby Jindal is doing as Governor?

Yes-63%
No-35%

If the 2011 Gubernatorial election were today, who would you vote for?

Jindal(R)*-64%
Cazayoux(D)-30%
Other/Unsure-6%

Do you approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

Yes-32%
No-66%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on November 17, 2010, 05:15:15 pm
The Jindal post is a little....biased, isn't it?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on November 17, 2010, 05:32:58 pm
The Jindal post is a little....biased, isn't it?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on November 17, 2010, 05:34:27 pm
I have to agree with the above two and suggest, politely, that you try to keep timelines as unbiased as possible. :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on November 17, 2010, 06:00:48 pm
I would support Hostettler to primary Lugar. The Tea Partys best bet if both Pence and Daniels both run for President or Pence runs for governor and Daniels for President. If not be prepared for Jackie Walorski.
I can promise you, Jackie won't challenge Lugar. If anything, she'll run against Donnelly in 2012. Republicans in the state are going to try and make that district as winnable for her as possible.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 17, 2010, 06:02:47 pm
I don't think it's biased. Jindal is a hack


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on November 17, 2010, 06:04:33 pm
I don't think it's biased. Jindal is a hack

Since you're a valued reader of my timelines, I won't comment.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 17, 2010, 06:34:03 pm
The Jindal post is a little....biased, isn't it?

Not really. He's a political opportuntist, and this is coming from an SB 1070 supporter.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 17, 2010, 07:01:50 pm
I agree with KS and bawlexus. I've lived in Louisiana for long enough to know that this is something Jindal would actually say and do.

He is super-popular, sadly for me! If anything, I went low on his numbers.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on November 17, 2010, 07:23:05 pm
The Jindal post is a little....biased, isn't it?

Not really. He's a political opportuntist, and this is coming from an SB 1070 supporter.

You called the State of Louisiana "xenophobic." That's biased in my eyes.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on November 17, 2010, 07:38:23 pm
The Jindal post is a little....biased, isn't it?

Not really. He's a political opportuntist, and this is coming from an SB 1070 supporter.

Well, it's not so much the Jindal critique as it was the "xenophobic Louisiana" deal. At least, that's my opinion.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 17, 2010, 07:40:52 pm
The Jindal post is a little....biased, isn't it?

Not really. He's a political opportuntist, and this is coming from an SB 1070 supporter.

You called the State of Louisiana "xenophobic." That's biased in my eyes.

Its is. Its a very racist state.

...and I'm saying that as a white person!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on November 17, 2010, 11:18:57 pm
The Jindal post is a little....biased, isn't it?

Not really. He's a political opportuntist, and this is coming from an SB 1070 supporter.

You called the State of Louisiana "xenophobic." That's biased in my eyes.

Its is. Its a very racist state.

...and I'm saying that as a white person!

Well, still, you may live there, but I find it's best to keep opinions out of timelines.

Just IMO, though. :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 18, 2010, 01:49:52 am
Yes, I agree opinions should be kept out of timelines. However, from time to time, my personal views may come across. But overall, I'll try to keep it pretty unbiased.


...I took the 'xenophobic' out of the Jindal post!

I even took down my signature, just to show how unbiased I am!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 18, 2010, 03:17:50 am
23 SEPTEMBER 2011

As the 2012 political season kicks into gear, more incumbents announce their retirement and more candidates formally announce their intentions...


(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TOQMDo3QubI/AAAAAAAABmE/7hXltcmo8Ok/s1600/kohl_gov.jpg)

"By next year, I will have served 24 years in the Senate; while my 24 years as a Senator from Wisconsin have been productive and gratifying, I regret to say that I will not be up for reelection to a 5th term. I believe that, due to the unique political circumstances in my home state and my need to spend more time on other endeavors, such as my family and the affairs of my great team, the Milwaukee Bucks, I finally feel that it is time to bring closure to my legislative career. Hence, I will join Senator Nelson of Florida as one of the outgoing members of this Congress.
 Of course, during the campaign season, I will support 100% and endorse the Democratic candidate; I hope that candidate will be an independent-minded and distinguished citizen of Wisconsin who has a proven record of standing up for what he believes in, regardless of the political costs.  The state of Wisconsin has sent some great Senators to Washington and I hope that as time goes on, I will be remembered as one of the. While the Republican party saw a resurgence in Wisconsin this year, I know that that Wisconsin is, at its core, a center-left state and I am confident that its citizens will have the good judgment to elected a Senator who will continue my work."




(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TOQXg5Tds5I/AAAAAAAABmU/m4OgCn-Z5JU/s1600/20101025__boxerdifi2%257E1_GALLERY%2B%25281%2529.JPG)

"After 18 great years of serving the people of California in the Senate, I will not be seeking reelection in 2012. During most of my life, I have served the California in one capacity or another. I have had setbacks, such as my ill-fated 1990 campaign for Governor, and I have had good times, like my 2006 landslide victory and more recently my management of my friend Barbara Boxer’s 2010 reelection campaign. I feel that Barbara and I have accomplished much over our 18 years in the Senate on behalf of the people of California. I have spent my career fighting for economic prosperity, social justice, women’s advancement and environmental conservation. Having served under the great times of the Clinton Administration and the darker days of the Bush years and finally under President Obama, my experience tells me that better days are ahead of America as a country. I will be spending the remaining year of my term finishing projects and I will be on the campaign trail for California Democrats."



(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TOQhjA9ookI/AAAAAAAABm0/TEmHciX9EsU/s1600/crist-charlie-announcment2.jpg)

"Today, as the 2012 political landscape is beginning to take shape, I have examined my own electoral prospects. After careful consideration and consulting with my family, I have decided to launch another bid for US Senate; my aim is to replace outgoing Senator Bill Nelson. In 2010, I watched as Florida elected one of the most extreme candidates in its history, Marco Rubio; since then, Senator Rubio has pursued his partisan agenda in the Senate and he has put the people of our state second.  For the past two years, I have been encouraged by many people not to end my political career.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and expecting a new result. Hence, because Rubio greatly benefitted from a split Democratic vote in 2010, I will be running as Democrat. As a moderate, I have been struggling to find a foothold in our increasingly partisan political scene. The Republicans have moved far to right and there is little room for Independent candidates. Thus, I am hoping that the Democratic Party will embrace my political moderation and common-sense approach to politics. As your governor, I fought both parties and made many enemies, but I delivered results for Florida by putting people ahead of the normal politics of Tallahassee. If elected to the Senate, I will do the same in Washington. The people of Florida need a champion for their interests in the Senate and as your Senator, I will always put the needs of the Sunshine State ahead of any ideological agenda or special interest groups."



(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TOTWYI_GHeI/AAAAAAAABnU/lIawaw-I61I/s1600/Dina%252BTitus%252BHarry%252BReid%252BAttends%252BGet%252BOut%252BVote%252BRUPHBMaDr6dl%2B-%2BCopy.jpg)

Former Congresswoman Dina Titus, flanked by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, announces her candidacy for the Senate seat currently held by John Ensign.

“Today, I have decided after much consideration that I will be running for Senate. As a Congresswoman, I helped to steer things such as employment incentives, energy funding and education dollars towards Nevada. After a year a brief hiatus from politics, I have decided to throw may hat back in. For twenty-four years, Senator Reid has been driving Nevada forward; he has used his vast clout in the Senate to make sure the Nevada is on a level playing field with the rest of the nation. As your Senator, I will help Reid bring Nevada back from the brink and work for prosperity both at the state and national levels. I have watched Senator Ensign put his extravagant personal musings before the needs of our state. I’ve been through lots of rough battles before, but this time, I know we can win! ”

Titus is immediately endorsed by Reid.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TOTfyEYtTVI/AAAAAAAABnc/C9PpZuJKGbE/s1600/16539_362428920423_249339445423_9903759_4254848_n.jpg)

“After months of carefully considering my future plans, I have decided that I will be Republican candidate for Senate in 2012 from Connecticut. I learned many things during the course of my 2010 campaign; I will undoubtedly use those lessons in this upcoming campaign season. Connecticut faces a flip-flopping political chameleon who has been Washington for decades. His name is Joe Lieberman. During his time in the Senate, he has looked out for only himself while the people of our state, and to a great extent, our country, has suffered. Now he hopes by simply switching parties, his constituents will forget about his abysmal record. Not if I can help it. As Republicans, as citizens of Connecticut, I know that we can do better than Senator Lieberman.  I have spent my time talking with the people of our and state and I feel they must me adequately represented in the Senate. Thus, I hope to be Connecticut’s next Senator.”



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 18, 2010, 11:02:52 am
Go Crist and Go Feingold. I would prefer ross miller over titus ;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 18, 2010, 11:43:21 am
Go Crist and Go Feingold. I would prefer ross miller over titus ;)

Reid's seat will be open in 2016...Miller might just run then :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 18, 2010, 05:35:03 pm
Go Crist and Go Feingold. I would prefer ross miller over titus ;)

Reid's seat will be open in 2016...Miller might just run then :)

Ok. Titus is a good candidate, too


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 18, 2010, 10:02:57 pm
Titus 2012!!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 19, 2010, 03:52:59 am
26 SEPTEMBER 2011

Critical Insights: Maine Republican Primary Poll

In a Republican Primary would you vote for Senator Olympia Snowe, or State Senator Chandler Woodcock?

Snowe-38%
Woodcock-49%
Unsure-13%

In a Republican Primary would you vote for Senator Olympia Snowe, or businessman Scott D'Amboise ?

Snowe-37%
D'Amboise-53%
Unsure-10%

Do you approve of the job Olympia Snowe is doing as a US Senator?

Yes-35%
No-59%

Do you approve of the job Susan Collins is doing as a US Senator?

Yes-37%
No-57%

Do you approve of the job Paul LePage is doing as a Governor?

Yes-62%
No-29%



Quinnipiac University-Maine Republican Poll

Would you vote to reelect Olympia Snowe over a more conservative primary challenger?

Yes-32%
No-59%

Do you think Olympia Snowe belongs in the Republican or Democratic party?

Republican-29%
Democratic-64%

Do you approve of the job Olympia Snowe is doing as a US Senator?

Yes-36%
No-61%



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on November 19, 2010, 06:09:26 am
Ugh. Why is the Maine tea Prty so awful, in terms of candidates? :(

Looking forward to two things: more on the 2011 elections, and more candidate declarations. :D


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 19, 2010, 10:24:24 am
continue please!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 19, 2010, 03:40:15 pm
1 OCTOBER 2011

In Kentucky, both sides are aggressively campaigning. Governor Steve Beshear has hosted campaign events with Bill Clinton and Ben Chandler. On the other side, both of Kentucky's Republican Senators have gone to bat for their parties's nominee, David Williams.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TOba8gIBQuI/AAAAAAAABoU/5_Xln5zyXvA/s1600/kycl.png)

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TObbD9YjK-I/AAAAAAAABoc/DolwIf5t0Ug/s1600/kymc.png)

While Williams has tried to tie the governor to the unpopular Obama, Beshear has run a campaign focusing on local and state issues. Beshear points out that he has helped bring fiscal balance to the state and reminds voters that he has actually lowered taxes; he also emphasizes his record as a fiscal and social moderate. Despite Williams' attacks, Beshear is holding up well in the polls, and going into October, it seems unlikely that the Republicans will pick up enough momentum to oust him.



Survey USA-Kentucky Poll (10/1-10/3)

Do you approve of the job Steve Beshear is doing as governor?

Yes-56%
No-40%

This November, will you vote for Democratic Governor Steve Beshear or Republican David Williams?

Beshear-54%
Williams-42%

Generally speaking, do you think Beshear is too conservative, too liberal, or about right?

Too conservative-17%
Too liberal-23%
About right-50%

Do you approve of President Barack Obama?

Yes-34%
No-59%



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 19, 2010, 04:27:40 pm
It's looking good for Beshear.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 19, 2010, 06:07:30 pm
beshear is the best kentucky electorate could vote for.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Hash on November 19, 2010, 06:08:20 pm
I don't often read tls, but this is definitely my favourite one out of those I've had time to read. Good job.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 20, 2010, 02:12:58 am
5 OCTOBER 2011

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TOd0YeDUtdI/AAAAAAAABo0/90H4tQRiWqI/s1600/101011_carl_paladino_crowd_ap_328.jpg)

"After a hard-fought campaign for Governor in 2010, my friends, we came up short. In those past months I have been thinking about the people of New York. They have been shortchanged by the Democrats who dominate our state and national government. We as Americans deserve better! I figure that if I can't help then as governor, I will represent them in the Senate. Long story short, I will be challenging liberal Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand for her Senate seat next year. As a Senator, Gillibrand has not cast votes thinking about her constituents. She only votes how Chuck Schumer tells her to! I hope that you will join my campaign, as I will be the candidate who best represents the people of New York. I will take my conservative principles to the Senate to stand up to the status quo. We had a great effort in 2010 and we can win in 2012 too!"


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 20, 2010, 02:57:13 am
9 OCTOBER 2011


Siena Research Institute- New York  Poll

(taken from 10/6-10/9)

Summary:

Both of New York's Democratic Senators and its Democratic Governor all remain very well-liked; each of them posts an approval margin of +20 or better. Kirsten Gillibrand goes into 2012 looking very strong against her only announced opponent, Republican Carl Paladino; she posts an impressive 37-point lead. Paladino is a very weak candidate; by a better than 2-to-1 margin, voters hold an unfavorable view of him. To see how a more moderate Republican would fare against Gillibrand, we replaced Paladino with Congressman Chris Lee. Lee only does slightly better than Paladino and would still trail by a wide margin. To say the least, Paladino, or any Republican, will have a very steep climb to unseat the popular Gillibrand.



Do you approve or disapprove of Kirsten Gillibrand's performance in the Senate?

Approve-57%
Disapprove-32%

Do you approve or disapprove of Chuck Schumer's performance in the Senate?

Approve-66%
Disapprove-26%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Carl Paladino?

Favorable-29%
Unfavorable-62%

Do you approve of Governor Cuomo's performance?

Yes-56%
No-36%

In the 2012 Senate election, would you support Kirsten Gillibrand (D) or Carl Paladino(R)?

Gillibrand(D)-63%
Paladino(R)-26%

In the 2012 Senate election, would you support Kirsten Gillibrand (D) or Chris Lee(R)?

Gillibrand-59%
Lee-29%



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 20, 2010, 08:34:24 am
LoL Paladino


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 20, 2010, 10:19:54 pm
Crazy Carl is back. Nice work, Miles.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on November 20, 2010, 10:23:31 pm
Jimmy McMillan should run instead.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Captain Chaos on November 21, 2010, 09:46:16 am
Jimmy McMillan should run instead.

The rent is too damn high!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on November 21, 2010, 12:51:05 pm
Yay! Go Crazy Carl!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on November 22, 2010, 08:54:39 pm
Oh, God, he returns. x_x


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Liberalrocks on November 23, 2010, 11:58:09 pm
Paladino is Batsh*T crazy !  He's back? What did Cuomo not wipe the floor with him strong enough to convince him New York is not the right state for his politics? He should consider running in the deep south.

However with that being said its fun to watch the rightwing wackos like Paladino O'Donnell and drum roll please.....The queen Sharron Angle ! I hope she makes a return!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 26, 2010, 12:57:16 am
7 OCTOBER 2011

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TO9LQv9sMLI/AAAAAAAABqE/DgPgYQ37g_Y/s1600/Newt-Gingrich-2.jpg)


"It is with the greatest seriousness and dedication, and after much contemplation, that I have decided to seek the Republican nomination for the 2012 Presidential Election. I feel that I stand on a solid record of conservative values and experience that I feel uniquely qualifies me to be President of this great nation. As Speaker of the House, I stood up to radical left and big-government, tax-and-spend liberals. These individuals wanted to turn our precious republic into a communist state; again and again, the voters have rejected this. The conservative movement that I spearheaded in 1994 continues to resonate with everyday Americans, as seen by the rapid rise of the Tea Party. In 1994, the people of America took their country back from the brink of socialism. Unfortunately, much of the conservative gains of 1994 have been lost. Instead, these past few years have been dominated by bid-spending, government-loving Democrats and Republicans. This is why I have decided to run for the Presidency. In 2012, with a Gingrich Presidency, conservatism will make a comeback and it will save our Republic!"


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 26, 2010, 01:33:21 am
10 OCTOBER 2011

PPP Report: Obama vs Gingrich, first look

Summary:

Despite Obama's approvals in the mid-40's, Newt Gingrich starts out with roughly a 90-electoral vote disadvantage. Gingrich would essentially put some swing states, like Florida, Ohio and Virginia, back into play and out of the Republican column. Most notably, Obama would likely see the rust-belt states 'come back' to him. Based on favorables, Gingrich isn't entirely apealing; outside of white conservative voters, he has very limited appeal.

PPP National Poll

(taken 10/7-10/09)

Do you approve of Barack Obama's performance as President?

Yes-45%
No-49%

You have a favorable view of Newt Gingrich?

Yes-36%
No-53%

Do you consider Newt Gingrich to be a man of moral integrity?

Yes-35%
No-51%

If the candidates fro President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?

Obama-46%
Gingrich-39%




(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TO9RfC3QDaI/AAAAAAAABqM/0zLLbhw82sg/s1600/ACTUAL2012%2B-%2BCopy.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Liberalrocks on November 26, 2010, 05:09:49 am
Newt what a joke. Almost as big a joke as Palin. Except Newt has a few more brain cells. Not much but a few more then Palin. I pity the GOP if eithier were to get nominated.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 26, 2010, 08:58:29 am
Newt what a joke. Almost as big a joke as Palin. Except Newt has a few more brain cells. Not much but a few more then Palin. I pity the GOP if eithier were to get nominated.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 26, 2010, 10:57:40 am
NEWT 2012!!!! (I want to see another obamaslide)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 26, 2010, 04:35:33 pm
15 OCTOBER 2011

At  the sole debate of the Mississippi Gubernatorial election, both Taylor and Reeves come out swinging.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPAlZg7EgpI/AAAAAAAABqU/TLJlEfqCRgE/s1600/g00025800000000000090840ac61f9429144146ce3c66e6333b60446e56.jpg)


"I was victorious in the primary and I will win this election because I am the candidate who has been standing up for the conservative values of Mississippi voters. My opponent, on the other hand, has been in Washington for twenty years following the leadership of Nancy Pelosi. Pelosi's policies aren't good for the nation and they're certainly not good for Mississippi. My opponent likes to say he's been an independent voice, but we know that all he's done in Washington is help Pelosi, Obama and the liberal Democrat Party. The Democrats have pushed our national debt off the chart and have put our Treasury in a crisis. If you vote for me, I will not be sympathetic towards them as my opponent has been. Instead, I will continue the work of Governor Barbour and put Mississippi first." 



(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPAlZhcllgI/AAAAAAAABqc/Lq2du95S2EU/s1600/tayl.jpg)

"Well, if you noticed, my opponent spends a lot of time talking about how bad Democrats are, but he doesn't talk a whole lot about his own record. The truth is, while I was in Congress, I voted against legislation that my own party pushed for because I knew it would be bad for Mississippi. I made sure that BP was held accountable for its damage to our Gulf Coast. I brought more funding to veterans programs. I made sure that our soldiers abroad had adequate equipment and funds. I pushed for repeal of NAFTA because its hurting our local industries. I've been an independent leader; for my opponent to claim that I've been a rubber stamp for Pelosi is just misleading and wrong."


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 26, 2010, 04:48:22 pm
GO GENE!!!!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 26, 2010, 04:49:38 pm
Mississippi Aggregate Polling:


Taylor(D)-49.5%
Reeves(R)^-45.1%
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPAo7NLs_5I/AAAAAAAABqk/D2Bu3Wkx-KQ/s1600/rt.png)



Gallup Poll

(taken 10/14-10/17; among likely voters)


Do you have a favorable opinion of Tate Reeves?

Yes-39%
No-50%

Would you consider Reeves to be moderate or extreme?

Moderate-37%
Extreme-53%

Do you have a favorable opinion of Gene Taylor?

Yes-54%
No-38%

Would you consider Taylor to be moderate or extreme?

Moderate-63%
Extreme-30%


Do you approve of Haley Barbour's job performance?

Yes-57%
No-35%

Who do you plan on voting for in November?

Taylor-48%
Reeves-44%






Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 26, 2010, 07:02:24 pm
Gene Taylor could run in RL next year.. he is the only "democrat" who could win...

talking about reeves, if 53% of mississipi people think he is extreme, he is probably worse than palin and demint. I'm scared.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 26, 2010, 07:06:05 pm
Taylor would be a great candidate. If he ran, I'd consider him the slight favorite regardless of who the Republican is.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 27, 2010, 06:49:09 am
Taylor would be a great candidate. If he ran, I'd consider him the slight favorite regardless of who the Republican is.

I think he would be a great candidate, too. But I'd consider his republican challenger the favourite.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 27, 2010, 09:35:41 pm
17-21 OCTOBER 2011

Retirements:

TOM CARPER
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPEt6k00C5I/AAAAAAAABqs/ey0FwzEvwPI/s1600/carp.jpg)
"Next year, I will not be a candidate for reelection in the state of Delaware. Instead, I will retire to focus on my family and I will serve the people of my state in other capacities. I feel that after serving 2 terms as its Governor and 2 terms as its Senator, my time as an elected official is nearly complete."

KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPEt6wIGpFI/AAAAAAAABq0/Y-Xs0p7Hi_w/s1600/bailey%2Bhutchinson.jpg)
"At this point in my Senate career, I feel that it is time that I step aside. As the most senior Republican woman in the Senate, I have been able to legislatively achieve for the state of Texas during my 18 years here. Simply put, I'd like to spend more time with my family and I feel that I have served my fair share of time in the Senate on behalf of the people of Texas."




Candidate Announcements

CLINT DIDIER
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPG3Qv0eJ-I/AAAAAAAABrE/kFp0w3aXJ9c/s1600/defend-life.jpg)
"In 2010, Washington state elected liberal Democrat Patty Murray. In 2012 Maria Cantwell, an even more liberal Senator will be up for election. On behalf of the people of Washington, I will be standing up to Senator Cantwell. In2012, she will be punished for her record of choosing choice over life and putting Washington DC above Washington state."

DAVE HEINEMAN
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPG3QQkNBYI/AAAAAAAABq8/e3CzY41STyw/s1600/Hein.jpg)
"I will be challenging Senator Ben Nelson in 2012. As a Senator, Nelson's policies have embarrassed and hurt Nebraska. In 2012, I was reelected with nearly 75% of the vote; I take this as a sign that the people of Nebraska overwhelmingly approve of my policies and my approach to leading. Knowing that, I decided to run for Senate"Nebraska needs another Senator that puts its people above his shady backroom Beltway friends. In 2013, I look forward to joining our Republican Senator, Mike Johanns, in Washington.

JEAN SCHMIDT
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPG32tyOihI/AAAAAAAABrM/rK3EcZs9m7I/s1600/2512562931_8342e9dfc0.jpg)
"Ohio, despite its center-right leanings, elected one of the most liberal legislators in Congress in 2006, Sherrod Brown. In 2010, Ohioans chose Republicans. Governor Strickland lost and Democrats lost 5 Ohio House seats.  In 2012, Ohio will reject Brown's liberalism as well! In Congress, I have worked to promote economic success, fiscal responsibility and life. These are principles that liberal  Sherrod Brown opposes. Brown is bad for Ohio and he must be replaced."


AND FINALLY...


(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPG6b7Evn-I/AAAAAAAABrU/9NZEXe8pP4k/s1600/Russ-Feingold.jpg)

"My friends, 2010 was a rough year for Democrats. No one knows that better than me! From north to south, Democrats struggled. Not this year. My friends, the lessons of my 2010 campaign will only boost the effort of my 2012 campaign.
I'd like to thank Senator Herb Kohl. I worked with Herb for 18 years and I know that he went to work every day with the state of Wisconsin in mind. In 2012, I'd like to continue Herb's wonderful job and build on projects that I started during my time in the Senate.
After my previous campaigns, I can truly say that I am prepared for anything the right has to throw at me!
As your Senator, I held meetings in every county, regardless of how right or left they leaned. Oddly, my preprocessor, Ron Johnson, has not done this. In the Seante, Ron has not stood up Wall Street and the big banks as I did. This is why we cannot left Herb's seat fall into the hands of another Republican!
On to 2012!!!"


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 27, 2010, 11:33:01 pm
NOOOOOOO!!!!! Hutchison!!

Schmidt, lol. Brown will survive.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 28, 2010, 01:46:53 am
LATE OCTOBER

Miscellaneous Senate Polling


GALLUP GENERIC BALLOT:
Republican-46%
Democratic-42%

Elway Research: Washington Senate Poll
Cantwell*-55%
Dider-34%

Rasmussen: Nebraska Senate Poll
Heineman-58%
Nelson*-32%

Columbus Dispatch: Ohio Senate Poll
Brown*-44%
Schmidt-36%

Mason-Dixon: Nevada Senate Poll
Titus-41%
Ensign*-40%

Marist College: New York Senate Poll
Gillibrand*-59%
Paladino-30%

PPP: Texas Senate Poll
Generic R^: 52%
Generic D: 41%

Susquehanna: Florida Democratic Primary Poll
Crist-52%
Meek-36%

Critical Insights: Maine-Snowe GOP Primary Favorables
Favorable-36%
Unfavorable-53%

PPP: Wisconsin-Feingold Favorables
Favorable- 50%
Unfavorable- 38%

SUSA: Hawaii- Akaka Favorables
Favorable-60%
Unfavorable-33%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 28, 2010, 10:12:38 am
what a sh**t! I actually like Ben nelson, he fits well his state....

but... I'm glad sherrod and feingold can win this ^^


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on November 28, 2010, 11:31:04 am
WOW. Nelson probably won't break 40%.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on November 28, 2010, 03:50:17 pm
Heineman! :D

And I'm glad Hutchison decided to retire. Better that than being teabagged out of political existence.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on November 28, 2010, 04:19:43 pm
Go Heineman!!!!!!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Liberalrocks on November 28, 2010, 07:24:45 pm
Sherrod Brown is too liberal for Ohio but I doubt Jean Schmidt is electable outside her district. She has been quoted with some controversial statements and comes off on the cold hearted side. Her demeanor is not warm and personable. In such a scenario Brown would be lucky for an opponent like her and would hold on...imo.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 29, 2010, 11:18:41 am
28 OCTOBER 2011

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPPSEX1pWZI/AAAAAAAABrk/YPN5x7lDxgw/s1600/MITT.jpg)

As the 2012 campaign season approaches, the lives of most Americans have not improved. Most families are in the same shape that they were in before the 2008 election; many are also worse off. This economic stagnation and lack to direction has given me reason to run for President in 2012. Therefore, I will be seeking the Republican nomination to replace Barack Obama as President in 2012.

Because I served as Governor of a blue state, I feel that I have developed the bispartisan and open problem solving skills that are needed to move America forward in these rough years. As Governor, I worked with people of both parties, as well as independents, to get results for the people of my state. At the same time, I remained to my conservative values of fiscal restriction, efficient government and social moderation.

I have no doubt that as Governor, I annoyed many on the far-right. This wing of the Republican party will probably be working against me in the primary as well. However, I am confident  that I will prevail because I believe that their is still room for those who truly want to solve America's problems and get our nation back on track. However, I share their believe that the extreme left is ruining our country; because of liberal extremism, our nation will be worse off for our future generations than it was for us. In 2012, I have no doubt that these liberals will be put out of power.

As of now, I know that I will be facing Speaker Newt Gingrich in the Republican primary. I look forward to an substantive debate with Newt and any other Republicans enter this race.Finally,  to win, I will need to build a coalition of moderate and conservative voters. Thus, I am calling on moderates, independents and conservatives to examine my record and to vote Mitt Romney in 2012.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 29, 2010, 11:45:48 am

OBAMA VS ROMNEY
Cumulative Electoral Map

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPPRN8958uI/AAAAAAAABrc/V0dTuhkgebs/s1600/gingrich%2B-%2BCopy.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 29, 2010, 11:46:41 am
PRESIDENTIAL POLLS


PPP
Obama: 45%
Romney: 43%

Obama: 46%
Gingrich: 38%

Quinnipiac
Obama: 43%
Romney: 43%

Obama: 44%
Gingrich: 39%

Survey USA
Obama: 44%
Romney: 41%

Obama: 45%
Gingrich: 40%

Rasmussen
Romney:46%
Obama: 42%

Obama: 43%
Gingrich: 41%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 29, 2010, 11:31:10 pm
PPP-2012 US SENATORS APPROVAL RATINGS

Gray denotes retiring Senator

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPR9av0CHhI/AAAAAAAABr0/uaafbcH7DuY/s1600/netapp.png)

*-UT numbers are based off of responses of likely Republican Convention delegates


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 29, 2010, 11:53:24 pm
I love excel ;)

No, I'm still thinking about it. I was thinking about maybe Terrance Wall or maybe Tim Michels (his 2004 opponent). I'm going to keep Paul Ryan in the House. I might give him a higher leadership post just to make sure he stays in the House and doesn't challenge Feingold.

I'll post more Wisconsin polls soon.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on November 29, 2010, 11:58:38 pm
This is great! :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 30, 2010, 09:55:14 am
This is great! :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario) on November 30, 2010, 03:51:14 pm


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on November 30, 2010, 04:21:58 pm


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on November 30, 2010, 04:51:57 pm


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 01, 2010, 01:27:29 am
OCTOBER 29 2011

Three days out from the 2011 Gubernatorial Elections, pollsters are putting out their final projections. Here is where the races stand heading into the final weekend:

KENTUCKY

PPP
Beshear-53%
Williams-44%

Quinnipiac
Beshear-54%
Williams-44%

SurveyUSA
Beshear-56%
Williams-42%

Mason-Dixon
Beshear-55%
Williams-43%

538.com:
Beshear-55.1%
Williams-44.9%

RATING: LIKELY DEMOCRATIC


LOUISIANA

PPP
Jindal-59%
Cazayoux-37%

Quinnipiac
Jindal-60%
Cazayoux-36%

Survey USA
Jindal-61%
Cazayoux-35%

Mason-Dixon
Jindal-59%
Cazayoux-36%

538.com:
Jindal-60.2%
Cazayoux-36.3%

OVERALL RATING: SAFE REPUBLICAN


MISSISSIPPI

PPP
Taylor-51%
Reeves-47%

Quinnipiac
Taylor-50%
Reeves-48%

SurveyUSA
Taylor-52%
Reeves-47%

Mason-Dixion
Taylor-52%
Reeves-47%

538.com:
Taylor-52.3%
Reeves-47.7%

OVERALL RATING: SLIGHT DEMOCRATIC


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on December 01, 2010, 01:42:55 am
WOO. Election night is coming right up. :D


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on December 01, 2010, 10:08:24 am
My predictions (LoL):

Beshear 54%
Williams 45%

-----

Jindal 59%
Cazayoux 39%

-----

Taylor 52%
Reeves 48%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 01, 2010, 11:52:27 am
1 NOVEMBER 2011

2011 ELECTION DAY

In mid-afternoon, exit polls confirm what most major pollsters have predicted:

KENTUCKY
Beshear*-55%
Williams-45%

LOUISIANA
Jindal*-60%
Cazayoux-38%

MISSISSIPPI
Taylor-52%
Reeves^-48%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on December 01, 2010, 01:37:19 pm
Snap. Election day. :D

Can't wait! ;D


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on December 01, 2010, 03:18:54 pm
1 NOVEMBER 2011

2011 ELECTION DAY

In mid-afternoon, exit polls confirm what most major pollsters have predicted:

KENTUCKY
Beshear*-55%
Williams-45%

LOUISIANA
Jindal*-60%
Cazayoux-38%

MISSISSIPPI
Taylor-52%
Reeves^-48%

if the exit polls are accurate, my predictions were perfect xD


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 01, 2010, 06:58:54 pm
1 NOVEMBER 2011

ELECTION NIGHT

KENTUCKY

2 hours after voting precincts began reporting, Steve Beshear opens with a wide lead of better than 14 points. Despite Kentucky's Republican trend and Obama's poor approvals, the race is quickly called in favor of Beshear.


WITH 60% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING...

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPbg0vpHAaI/AAAAAAAABsE/rcoUJzjoJ8w/s1600/electky.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 01, 2010, 07:03:12 pm
1 NOVEMBER 2011

ELECTION NIGHT

LOUISIANA

With a majority of precincts in, Republican governor Bobby Jindal handily wins a second term. The AP projects a Jindal landslide.


WITH 55% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING...

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPbhkSXQHqI/AAAAAAAABsM/glS9mwHWy_g/s1600/electla.png)



 


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on December 01, 2010, 07:03:57 pm
WOW. Now it's down to MS.

C'mon, Gene!!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 01, 2010, 07:12:30 pm
1 NOVEMBER 2011

ELECTION NIGHT

MISSISSIPPI

In a the most competitive race of this season, Dixiecrat Gene Taylor opens with a narrow lead over tea party favorite Tate Reeves. Throughout the race, Taylor was considered a slight favorite due to a harsh Republican primary. The AP maintains that this election is too close to call.



WITH 58% OF PRECINCTS IN...

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPbixC300PI/AAAAAAAABsU/YYwQBqdkvpc/s1600/electms.png)



MISSISSIPPI COUNTY WINNERS

-Red and Blue counties have at least 85% of precincts reporting
-Dark Gray counties have partial returns
-Light Gray counties have no returns

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPb-1sfDpbI/AAAAAAAABts/Gmp06Y0Wq3Y/s1600/MS%2B-%2BCopy%2B%25281%2529.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on December 01, 2010, 07:14:17 pm
1 NOVEMBER 2011

ELECTION NIGHT

MISSISSIPPI

In a the most competitive race of this season, Dixiecrat Gene Taylor opens with a narrow lead over tea party favorite Tate Reeves. Throughout the race, Taylor was considered a slight favorite due to a harsh Republican primary. The AP maintains that this election is too close to call.



WITH 58% OF PRECINCTS IN...

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPbixC300PI/AAAAAAAABsU/YYwQBqdkvpc/s1600/electms.png)



MISSISSIPPI COUNTY WINNERS

-Red and Blue counties have at least 85% of precincts reporting
-Dark Gray counties have partial returns
-Light Gray counties have no returns

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPbkP5lOteI/AAAAAAAABsc/UY4FQCt3bj8/s1600/MS%2B-%2BCopy.png)

The remaining counties are mostly in Dem/Taylor favorable areas.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on December 01, 2010, 07:36:52 pm
Yeah, Taylor's got this. Never thought I'd say this, but I'm not really complaining much.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 01, 2010, 08:57:56 pm
As more counties report in Mississippi, Taylor expands his lead. Still, the AP is waiting for every county to report at least 85% of its precincts until declaring a winner. The Republican's path to retaining this seat is narrowing.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPb7AXqu5YI/AAAAAAAABtE/DkaI8GlkqeM/s1600/electms.png)



MISSISSIPPI COUNTY WINNERS

WITH 72% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING...

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPb8lpr_ovI/AAAAAAAABtU/puk4Vo0cCz4/s1600/MS%2B-%2BCopy.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on December 01, 2010, 08:59:38 pm
It's over.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on December 02, 2010, 10:51:26 am
my predictions were OK. I'm glad taylor won!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 02, 2010, 11:28:58 am
2 NOVEMBER 2011


2011 ELECTION FINAL RESULTS


KENTUCKY

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPfIQLhApaI/AAAAAAAABu0/4vlINpt9A8E/s1600/electky.png)

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPfHe70js0I/AAAAAAAABuU/eQlaDqTuuck/s1600/ky.png)


LOUISIANA

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPfIQepUMwI/AAAAAAAABu8/KGXz8X5BURI/s1600/electla.png)

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPfHfZ0-A3I/AAAAAAAABuc/s0MYfEkS_zs/s1600/LA.png)


MISSISSIPPI

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPfH1GfkyoI/AAAAAAAABus/m33FtfYWR88/s1600/electms.png)

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPfHeg8XSfI/AAAAAAAABuM/5te5bhGMkGo/s1600/MS.png)



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 02, 2010, 11:33:51 am
UPDATED GUBERNATORIAL MAP

REPUBLICAN-28
DEMOCRATIC-21
INDEPENDENT-1



(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPfJ6uZg_lI/AAAAAAAABvM/Oil0LDn2Edk/s1600/OFFGOV.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on December 02, 2010, 12:06:43 pm
Excellent!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on December 02, 2010, 07:04:29 pm
Excellent!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: albaleman on December 03, 2010, 06:25:24 pm


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 03, 2010, 08:54:48 pm
3 NOVEMBER 2011

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPmdT6bjAoI/AAAAAAAABvU/7_3CXkOHRkQ/s1600/raese.jpeg)

Former Republican candidate John Raese announces that he will be seeking a rematch with West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin. Raese makes his announcement with Sarah Palin at a tea party rally.

Palin:
"Hello West Virginia! Next year you will have an opportunity to elect John Raese, a great Constitutional Conservative to the Senate. I supported John in 2010 and when he asked me if I'd help him again, I sad "You bectha!." West Virginia needs John's small business experience and his commitment to restoring America to the nation that our founders envisioned it. That liberal, big-spending Joe Manchin needs to go! Ever since he's been in Washington he's been cozying up to President Obama and the liberal Democrat leadership. Thats not good for West Virginia! John had a good effort in 2010, but he fell a bit short. Next year, we can change that! So next year, how 'bout we vote those liberals Joe Manchin and Barack Obama out!"


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 03, 2010, 09:23:55 pm
7 NOVEMBER 2011

PPP: West Virginia Poll

Summary: Despite President Obama's low approvals here, both of West Virginia's Democratic Senators remain very popular, as their approvals approach 60%. Heading into 2012, Manchin opens with an impressive 16-point lead. Raese doesn't seem to be a particularly strong candidate; he posts slightly negative favorables. Manchin leads by 21% with independents and gets almost 25% crossover support from Republicans, this is very impressive considering the polarized political atmosphere. With Rep. Shelley Moore Capito likely to run for Governor, the Republicans seem like they will be unable to recruit a strong candidate to challenge Manchin.

Do you approve of the job Senator Joe Manchin is doing?
Yes-56%
No-36%

Do you approve of the job Senator Jay Rockefeller is doing?
Yes-58%
No-35%

Do you approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing?
Yes-35%
No-58%

Do you have a favorable view of John Raese?
Yes-43%
No-47%

If the 2012 Senate race was between Joe Manchin and John Raese, who would you vote for?
Manchin-54%
Raese-38%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 04, 2010, 02:55:17 am
9 NOVEMBER 2011

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPnycEB_phI/AAAAAAAABvk/AP8IT0NLyZE/s1600/hatch.jpg)

Throughout my career, I have built a pragmatic conservative record. While I have remained true to my conservative roots, I have often worked in a bipartisan way to better serve the people of Utah. Sadly, my work across the aisle has become a political liability. For instance, the right is using my bipartisan my work with my great friend Ted Kennedy to attack me.

In 2010, Bob Bennett fell victim to the far right. Bob was a great Senator and I greatly enjoyed working with him; I couldn't have asked for a better colleague. In 2012, I have decided to fight back against the tide of ideological extremism that is flooding the Republican party. Therefore, rather than seeking the Republican nomination, I will seek reelection as a candidate with No Party Affiliation.

By running as an independent, I can focus on my Senate work and not have to worry about answering to ideological purists; instead, I will answer to the people of Utah. My constituents have trusted me to represent them in the Senate for 36 years. While this bold move will likely pit the entire state Republican party against me, I am confident that my constituents will afford me the chance to serve them for 1 more term.


12 NOVEMBER 2011

Bob Jones: Utah Senate Poll

Among Likely GOP Convention Delegates:

Who would you be most inclined to support at next year's Convention? (before Hatch left GOP)
Chaffetz-36%
Bridgewater-31%
Hatch-23%
Other-10%

Who would you be most inclined to support at next year's Convention? (after Hatch left GOP)
Chaffetz-45%
Bridgewater-39%
Other/Unsure-16%

General Election Polling:

3-Way Races

Chaffetz-38%
Hatch-37%
Generic D-19%

Hatch-39%
Bridgewater-36%
Generic D-18%

2-Way Races

Hatch-48%
Chaffetz-46%

Hatch-47%
Bridgewater-44%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario) on December 04, 2010, 08:18:45 am
Go Orrin!

(It's a scary world when Orrin Hatch is hailed as a Moderate Hero.)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on December 04, 2010, 09:58:55 am
Yes, I't surprising... but I'm supporting mr. Hatch jajaja


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on December 04, 2010, 12:49:43 pm
Please God let Hatch lose. It's some reassurance, at least, that Utah seems to only vote for people with an (R) by their name.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on December 04, 2010, 01:47:06 pm
Go Orrin!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 05, 2010, 09:19:42 pm
11 NOVEMBER 2011

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPxGEMHiUaI/AAAAAAAABwU/Zpw7AV1eVFE/s1600/danakaka.jpg)

Silencing rumors to the contrary, Hawaii Senator Dan Akaka announces that he will, in fact, be seeking a 5th term. Despite the very old age (88) of Hawaii's Senators, they both remain extremely popular, as does Obama; Hawaiians don't seem to care that both Akaka and Inouye are approaching 90, as they both have astronomical approval ratings. Akaka should be in good shape for reelection.

Survey USA: Hawaii Poll

Do you approve of Dan Inouye's work in the Senate?
Yes-76%
No-18%

Do you approve of Dan Akaka's work in the Senate?
Yes-71%
No-23%

Do you approve of Barack Obama's performance as president?
Yes-66%
No-30%

In 2012, would you vote to reelect Dan Akaka?
Yes-63%
No-34%

At the same time Ben Nelson of Nebraska announces his retirement. I don't think I need to show any Nebraska polls...
(http://images.huffingtonpost.com/gen/80213/thumbs/s-BEN-NELSON-large.jpg)



(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TPxkoIRN9eI/AAAAAAAABws/k0GYQ6ErH3w/s1600/2012-1.png)

Incumbent Democrat (16)
Incumbent Republican (8 )
Incumbent Independent (2)
Retiring Democrat (5)
Retiring Republican (1)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on December 06, 2010, 08:47:38 am
=) Lingle won't be a problem ;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on December 06, 2010, 01:55:54 pm
Nice job, as always.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on December 06, 2010, 06:40:48 pm
I wonder who the GOP will nominate in Hawaii?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on December 07, 2010, 10:03:02 am
I wonder who the GOP will nominate in Hawaii?

Cam Cavasso jajajaj


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on December 12, 2010, 12:54:00 pm
Where did this one go?  :)

There's a reason for everything...


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on December 12, 2010, 01:57:25 pm
Where did this one go?  :)

There's a reason for everything...

and... what's the reason?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on December 12, 2010, 04:00:55 pm
Where did this one go?  :)

There's a reason for everything...

and... what's the reason?

The 4th Deadly Sin - Sloth


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on December 12, 2010, 06:07:45 pm
Where did this one go?  :)

There's a reason for everything...

and... what's the reason?

...it's referred to as "College Exam Week" or "Hell".


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 12, 2010, 08:22:34 pm
Where did this one go?  :)

There's a reason for everything...

and... what's the reason?

...it's referred to as "College Exam Week" or "Hell".

Thats right.

Sorry guys. I've had a lot of stuff on my to-do list.

As KS said, I had exams all of last week, so I couldn't get to the TL.

Also, KS and I have been creating our 2012 redistricting map; this map will play a huge role in my TL , so I invested a lot of time and energy into it.

Well, now I have 5 weeks off and I will be updating my TL very regularly.

Thanks for your patience and concern.

'Miles


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 12, 2010, 10:01:52 pm
18 NOVEMBER 2011

We all knew this was coming...

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TQWMfs8grTI/AAAAAAAABzM/s03tj2dJ6Jw/s1600/110308_Palin_t_w600_h1200.jpg)

"After talking with Todd, Bristol, Willow, Track and Piper, they have said that they will be supportive of me running for president. As many of you have speculated and guessed, I will be running for president in 2012.

By seeking the highest office in this great country, I will try to put America on a new path. A path that our Founders had envisioned. A path that will lead average Americans, people like Joe the Plumber or even middle class American patriots like my family, to have a greater say in their government. The policies of this administration have put a choke hold on our great middle class and the businesses that drive our country forward. At this rate, America will never rise up to the great potential it showed under the Reagan and Bush eras. The small businesses that have been pumping life into our country for decades have never been hurting this much.

For these 3 years, President Obama and VP Joe Biden have bankrupted our country, our people and our children's future with their liberal, socialist policies. I am running to give Americans a second choice. By choosing me over Obama, Americans will be choosing common-sense conservatism over heavy-handed tyranny and they will choose freedom over oppression and big government.

While President Obama, VP Biden, their czars, Harry Reid and faceless bureaucrats have been trying to ruin America, I have been on the campaign trail trying to get Constitutional Conservative candidates elected. These candidates ranged from governors like Susana Martinez and Nikki Haley, as well as Congressman, like Michele Bachmann and Rand Paul. It was partly due to my efforts that the American people took back the House in 2010 and sent a loud and clear message of disapproval to this White House.

Finally, I feel that I have the strong executive experiences needed to move America forward and I hope to see you all on the campaign trail! We have a a hard road ahead of us, but no major changes in America were ever easy! We can do this! God bless America!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on December 12, 2010, 10:33:36 pm
YES! The triumphant return. :D Hope exams didn't eat you too badly, Miles.

And I offer one big facepalm at Sarah Palin. That is all. x_x


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 12, 2010, 10:41:41 pm
YES! The triumphant return. :D Hope exams didn't eat you too badly, Miles.

And I offer one big facepalm at Sarah Palin. That is all. x_x

:)

Thanks! I'm glad everybody missed me!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 12, 2010, 10:59:00 pm
LATE NOVEMBER 2011

PPP: First Look at Palin

How would you describe your view of Sarah Palin?
Favorable-37%
Unfavorable-51%

Do you approve of Barack Obama's job as President?
Yes-44%
No-49%

Do you think Sarah Palin is fit to be President?
Yes-39%
No-55%

Would you consider Palin to be extreme or about right?
Extreme-49%
About Right-32%
Unsure-19%

In the general 2012 Presidential election, would you support Obama or Palin?
Obama-52%
Palin-41%


REPUBLICAN POLLING

How would you describe your view of Sarah Palin?
Favorable-76%
Unfavorable-20%

So far, Romney, Gingrich and Palin have declared their intent to run for the GOP nomination. Who are you most leaning towards out of these three?
Palin-34%
Romney-31%
Gingrich-26%


GENERAL ELECTION POLLING

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TQWZYwg9DDI/AAAAAAAABzU/spEFmW0jfC0/s1600/ROMN.png)



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on December 13, 2010, 08:29:19 am
If Arizona's in questions and Montana is going Democrat, that's a bad sign right there.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on December 13, 2010, 09:09:47 am
Just making sure I'm not seeing things, did we just go in reverse to cover this?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on December 13, 2010, 10:47:52 am
YEAAHHH the TL didn't go to the hell =)!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on December 13, 2010, 12:27:21 pm
Glad to see this back again!

And the redistricting map will be good. Sadly, with all the Republicans running the Legislatures, there will be a lot of GOP Gerrymanders...


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 15, 2010, 08:10:24 pm
EARLY DECEMBER 2011


Candidate Announcements:

In Nevada, embattled Sen. John Ensign, in addition to his Democratic opponent, Dina Titus, gets 2 more challenges from within his own party. A popular figure in his district, Congressman Dean Heller steps up against Ensign. Despite Sen. Ensign's relatively conservative record, he also picks up a challenge from his right in Nevada Tea Party Chairwoman and 2010 GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle. Although Angle lost by a wider-than-expected margin in 2010, she remains popular with the conservative wing of the GOP and the Tea Party Express has pledged to spend millions on her campaign.
Many pollsters predict that Titus will now have an advantage in the general election; she is the only announced Democrat while 3 high-profile Republicans will be competing against each other. While Nevada's unemployment rate is still lingering at 12%, it looks like they could very well elect another Democrat to the Senate if the GOP primary is bloody enough.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TQlhRPSUdmI/AAAAAAAAB0c/rhLFiZWT-pM/s1600/nvl.png)

In North Dakota, 2-year Governor Jack Darlrymple prepares to challenge longtime Senator and Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad. While Conrad is generally considered to be a powerful figure in North Dakota, some in his home state say that after years in Washington, he's become just another "Beltway Insider." Initial polls show a closer than expected race. In 2010, Senator John Hoeven was elected with 74%; not a good sign for Conrad.
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TQliDdX4VbI/AAAAAAAAB0k/q-aMmwyvflo/s1600/cd.png)

Massachusetts Democrats got a big boost when Vicki Kennedy, wife of the 47-year MA Senator Ted Kennedy, declared her intentions to seek her late husband's seat. Despite the very leftward tilt of MA, this Senate race promises to be one of the most competitive in the country. Scott Brown has made a conscious effort to distinguish himself from his more conservative Senate colleagues, as he has split with them on some key issues such as abortion and education funding. But, will it be enough? Many are expecting Obama to carry MA by at least 15 points in 2012. Will Brown get enough crossover support to fend off Kennedy? This seems to be the big question in MA. Polls show Brown narrowly ahead, but this is somewhat due to lack of knowledge about Kennedy.
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TQlkC11M4MI/AAAAAAAAB0s/W_nZG-vmKQs/s1600/9844d9_Kenn_05052010.jpg)

Rep. Jason Chaffetz and 2010 GOP Senate contender Tim Bridgewater confirm that they will both be seeking the GOP nomination to take on Independent Republican Orrin Hatch in the general election. Hatch, facing the wrath of the far right for his extensive bipartisan work with the late Ted Kennedy, earned a spot on the Tea Party Express' 'Most Wanted' list. By running as an independent, Hatch hoped to salvage his career and squeeze one last term out of his right-leaning electorate. Because of Caffetz's and Bridgewater's nearly identical stances, the Republican contest is looking to be a personality contest.
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TQlmn9uEVII/AAAAAAAAB00/WClf3ZiKlMY/s1600/nvl.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 15, 2010, 08:23:48 pm
EARLY DECEMBER 2010

POLLING UPDATES

SurveyUSA: North Dakota Poll
Conrad-47%
Dalrymple-45%

PPP: Massachusetts Poll
Brown-46%
Kennedy-42%

Mason-Dixon: Nevada Poll

Titus-43%
Enign-40%

Titus-37%
Heller-45%

Titus-45%
Angle-37%

GOP Primary

Ensign*-36%
Heller-30%
Angle-27%

Dan Jones: Utah Polls

Chaffetz- 42%
Hatch- 39%
Generic D- 15%

Hatch- 41%
Bridgewater- 40%
Generic D- 16%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on December 16, 2010, 06:35:29 pm
Fantastic!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on December 16, 2010, 07:27:39 pm
Awesome!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 17, 2010, 04:15:31 pm
3 DECEMBER 2011

Giving a huge boost to Wisconsin Democrats, specifically Russ Feingold, Rep. Paul Ryan says that he will not be a candidate for Herb Kohl's open Senate seat.

(http://images.politico.com/global/news/090326_ryan_AP_223.jpg)

"After the Republican wave of 2010, I ascended to the Chairmanship of the powerful House Committee on Budget. I plan to Chair this Committee as long as Republicans control the House. Therefore, next November, I will be running again to represent the people of Wisconson's First District.
I am confident that state Republicans in Wisconsin will find a formidable challenger for Mr. Feingold. After the 2010 elections, the Republican bench is very strong.
As Chairman of the Budget Committee, I have fought to implemnet the core policies of my Roadmap for America's Future. Republicans on my Commitee have been trying to restore principles such as balanced budgets and efficient spending to Congress. I plan to continue my fight against the fiscal irresponsibility that have dominated Congress for decades so that America can once again be prosperous.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 19, 2010, 02:50:37 am
5 DECEMBER 2011

FINAL REDISTRICTING MAP AND RATINGS ARE RELEASED:

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TQ7jKweI60I/AAAAAAAAB1k/OeIx0mCdPr8/s1600/113house%2B-%2BCopy%2B%25282%2529.png)
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TQ25AbDkWnI/AAAAAAAAB1U/6ErxNnFChls/s1600/NUMR.png)


FOR A LARGER VERSION OF THE MAP, CLICK HERE:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TQ7jKweI60I/AAAAAAAAB1k/OeIx0mCdPr8/s1600/113house%2B-%2BCopy%2B%25282%2529.png


Notes:

-For the sake of this timeline (and simplicity) I used the current districts in California. It isn't expected to gain or lose votes and, also there is a very low seat turnover rate here anyway (even this year, no seats in CA flipped parties).

-When assigning district ratings, I took into consideration both the projected PVI rating as well as the popularity of the incumbents themselves.

-A special thanks to KS21 for helping me with some states. His plans were much appreciated!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on December 19, 2010, 03:30:19 am
Good God, Miles, how long did that take? :o


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 19, 2010, 03:39:24 am
Good God, Miles, how long did that take? :o


I started it about 3 weeks ago. KS21 and I put a lot of time and effort into this!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on December 19, 2010, 03:51:58 am
Good God, Miles, how long did that take? :o


I started it about 3 weeks ago. KS21 and I put a lot of time and effort into this!!

It shows. It really, really, really shows. :o

EXCELLENT work.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on December 19, 2010, 12:46:07 pm
Good God, Miles, how long did that take? :o


I started it about 3 weeks ago. KS21 and I put a lot of time and effort into this!!

It shows. It really, really, really shows. :o

EXCELLENT work.

Yeah, it was a lot of work. But I was happy to help out.

But Miles deserves the most credit- I only did a few states (AR (we worked together), MO, KS, OK, NJ, GA, WA), most of which are small(er than normal).

Miles did the larger states like PA, FL, NY, OH, MI, IL, etc, which ate up a lot more time.

Thanks, Sven!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on December 19, 2010, 12:54:13 pm
Great! :) My only real nitpick that I can see is Kansas, where I don't see the all Republican legislature creating a toss-up district right next to a safe Republican district.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on December 19, 2010, 01:35:30 pm
Great! :) My only real nitpick that I can see is Kansas, where I don't see the all Republican legislature creating a toss-up district right next to a safe Republican district.


My explanation-

They've done it before. They could have had Moore screwed over 5000+ ways in 2000 but they didn't because the KS GOP has created a swing districts in recent decades if it makes another district (Jenkins, in this case) safe for good.

This is ideal for the GOP because now every single Democratic area is now out of CD2, making a Boyda 2006-repeat practically impossible.

The GOP has controled the process for 3 decades now (Hayden, Graves, Brownback) and with only the exception of 1995-1999 we've had 1 or 2 Dems (Slattery, Moore, Boyda) in this very red state.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on December 19, 2010, 02:33:08 pm
Nice (really nice) MAP: cngratulations =)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: bloombergforpresident on December 19, 2010, 07:42:25 pm
That is really good. Are the districts in MO different and how?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 19, 2010, 07:52:57 pm
That is really good. Are the districts in MO different and how?

KS21 did MO for me. He's the expert in that region!

The 5 rural districts would still be Safe or Likely Republican. Ike Skelton is probably too old to make a comeback anyway.

The Kansas City district is Safe D. On the other side of the state, Lacy Clay would still be safe and Russ Carnahan would be about the same. Todd Aiken would now have a swing district.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: albaleman on December 19, 2010, 09:14:15 pm
That map is really, really, REALLY unbelievable. Fantastic job Miles.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: bloombergforpresident on December 19, 2010, 09:24:45 pm
That is really good. Are the districts in MO different and how?

KS21 did MO for me. He's the expert in that region!

The 5 rural districts would still be Safe or Likely Republican. Ike Skelton is probably too old to make a comeback anyway.

The Kansas City district is Safe D. On the other side of the state, Lacy Clay would still be safe and Russ Carnahan would be about the same. Todd Aiken would now have a swing district.


Did Akin's district boundaries change because I would  say that's  not a real swing district currrently.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: redcommander on December 20, 2010, 12:39:55 am
Bravo on the map! I'm hoping the Republicans pick a few seats outside of New Hampshire in New England in this timeline. It was such a shame that didn't happen in 2010


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on December 20, 2010, 07:56:11 am
That is really good. Are the districts in MO different and how?

KS21 did MO for me. He's the expert in that region!

The 5 rural districts would still be Safe or Likely Republican. Ike Skelton is probably too old to make a comeback anyway.

The Kansas City district is Safe D. On the other side of the state, Lacy Clay would still be safe and Russ Carnahan would be about the same. Todd Aiken would now have a swing district.


Did Akin's district boundaries change because I would  say that's  not a real swing district currrently.

Yes, the boundaries changed on Akin's district. This was planned. With a split redistricting process, it would seem likely that a 5-3-1 R compromise would be good.

Clay's district was moved north taking parts of Akin's district, had the southern 1/3 taken out and was given to what remained of Akin's. This plan more evenly splits up the Red suburbs, Blue suburbs, and Urban STL.

Cleaver's district had the GOP suburbs taken out and replaced with Caly County, which is a swing county by Missouri standards.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: bloombergforpresident on December 20, 2010, 11:28:24 am
That is really good. Are the districts in MO different and how?

KS21 did MO for me. He's the expert in that region!

The 5 rural districts would still be Safe or Likely Republican. Ike Skelton is probably too old to make a comeback anyway.

The Kansas City district is Safe D. On the other side of the state, Lacy Clay would still be safe and Russ Carnahan would be about the same. Todd Aiken would now have a swing district.


Did Akin's district boundaries change because I would  say that's  not a real swing district currrently.

Yes, the boundaries changed on Akin's district. This was planned. With a split redistricting process, it would seem likely that a 5-3-1 R compromise would be good.

Clay's district was moved north taking parts of Akin's district, had the southern 1/3 taken out and was given to what remained of Akin's. This plan more evenly splits up the Red suburbs, Blue suburbs, and Urban STL.

Cleaver's district had the GOP suburbs taken out and replaced with Caly County, which is a swing county by Missouri standards.

I see. Again, a fantastic map!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 26, 2010, 07:15:36 pm
DECEMBER 6 2011

Mike Huckabee becomes the last major contender to announce his candidacy for the GOP Presidential nod. Huckabee announces his intentions on his Fox News show.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TRfWmhTQGtI/AAAAAAAAB2o/pkueouz515c/s1600/huckb.png)

After today, I will be cancelling my show. I have nothing but thanks and gratitude to my viewers, supporters, friends and employers. I have enjoyed every second of this show. This was an opportunity that I will eternally cherish. Despite the end of this phase of my life, I will not stop serving the people of this great country. While the good Lord is indeed guiding my life in another direction, I will be continuing to help this country.
That is why I will be seeking the Presidency in 2012. As I watched the gradual and steady decline of America over the last four years, I felt more and more compelled to run for President again. In 2008, while my team ran a great campaign, we fell short, as I was the runner-up for the Republican nomination. In 2012, we will take our strengths from 2008 and build on them.
I feel that my great executive experience as Governor of Arkansas makes me the most qualified candidate. As Governor, I fought for fiscal responsibility, social restraint and conservative ideals. These are the values that a Huckabee Presidency will be based upon.
These next few months with be hard, but I believe in the Republican Party and the American electorate. I will be in a field of candidates that is nothing short of top-notch; I will be running against other fine Republicans, such as Speaker Gingrich and Governor Palin. However, I think that when Republicans examine my record, they will support me.
Again, thank you to all those who have supported me; I greatly value you and I hope you will continue your support in the future.  



PPP+Quinnipiac+SurveyUSA: Obama/Huckabee Compiled Map

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;6&AZ=2;11;6&AR=2;6;6&CA=1;55;6&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;6&DE=1;3;6&DC=1;3;6&FL=2;29;3&GA=2;16;6&HI=1;4;6&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;20;6&IN=2;11;4&IA=1;6;3&KS=2;6;6&KY=2;8;6&LA=2;8;6&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;11;6&MI=1;16;3&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;6&MO=2;10;4&MT=2;3;4&NV=1;6;3&NH=1;4;4&NJ=1;14;4&NM=1;5;3&NY=1;29;6&NC=3;15;4&ND=2;3;6&OH=2;18;3&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;6&PA=3;20;4&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;9;6&SD=2;3;6&TN=2;11;6&TX=2;38;6&UT=2;6;6&VT=1;3;6&VA=3;13;4&WA=1;12;6&WV=2;5;6&WI=1;10;3&WY=2;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=1;1;4&ME2=1;1;4&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;8&NE2=2;1;4&NE3=2;1;4)

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TRfb9q9PRwI/AAAAAAAAB2w/tmYe5xv3Tu8/s1600/SCALE.png)

OBAMA-243
HUCKABEE-238
TOSSUP-57


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 26, 2010, 08:06:49 pm
DECEMBER 12 2011

Selzer and Co.: Iowa GOP Caucus Poll
2000 respondents

Huckabee: 30%
Palin: 24%
Romney: 19%
Gingrich: 18%

Analysis: With a just under a month to go, the Iowa Caucus looks competitive; following a strong performance here in 2008, Huckabee is the favorite, however, a Palin upset is very possible. A key factor that will influence the outcome of this race will be Governor Branstad's endorsement. Branstad, the popular governor of Iowa, has yet to endorse a candidate; more importantly, 62% of respondents said that Branstad's pick will have at least some influence on their vote. The governor said that he will endorse on December 27, exactly one week before the caucus.

Other questions asked:

Which candidate do you think is the most conservative?
Palin: 38%
Huckabee: 32%
Gingrich: 22%
Romney: 8%

Do you approve of Governor Branstad's performance?
Yes-83%
No-13%

Favorables
Palin: 79/20
Huckabee: 78/19
Gingrich: 66/25
Romney: 61/28

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TRfmN-f-peI/AAAAAAAAB24/acMM7N0Jpu8/s1600/IA.png)

Huckabee
Palin
Romney
Gingrich

Regionally, the map is starting to take form. Romney is strongest in the more liberal  eastern portion of the state, where he did well in 2008. Congressman Steve King has been making campaign stops with Palin in his western district, thus she is building up a western-Iowa firewall. Palin has also done heavy campaigning in the north. Aside from a few counties going for Gingrich, Huckabee dominates central Iowa.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: - on December 29, 2010, 03:33:55 pm
Excellent!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on December 29, 2010, 08:02:22 pm
Excellent!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 01, 2011, 01:39:13 pm
Hey Guys,

I had a few, ahh... technical...errors with my last House map. It took me a few weeks to adress those errors, so this is the new (and final) redistricting map:

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TSHR12R4bFI/AAAAAAAAB4k/ITRgBM1lVHY/s1600/offihouse113.png)

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TSHSuUl3sfI/AAAAAAAAB4s/pV2PimWnQtk/s1600/RATINGS.png)

This is a larger version:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TSHR12R4bFI/AAAAAAAAB4k/ITRgBM1lVHY/s1600/offihouse113.png

And this is the FULL size map (if you copy and paste this to the Paint program, you can actually go in and change the colors of the districts!):
http://postimage.org/image/3350qydgk/full/

Again, thanks to KS for his help!

Thanks for all your support, my friends! More to come!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on January 01, 2011, 02:20:57 pm
Wow, Miles, I feel for you. bad enough you had to take nearly a month to make it, but another half of one to fix it. :( As someone who does occasional graphics work, I understand.

But, hey, least it was worth it. :D


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 01, 2011, 02:46:37 pm
Well, I was using the 2000 population estimates instead of the 2008 estimates for about 15 states; sadly, most of those states were the bigger ones (NY,PA,FL,NC, etc). The population differences were easier to correct in some states than others though.

I also tend to be a stubborn perfectionist when it comes to this stuff

But its finally done! This House map will last me through the entire timeline, so I thought the investment in time would be worth it in the long run!



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 01, 2011, 02:47:43 pm
hahaha! Sorry, I erased my response to change something and reposted it after you replied!

That just shows you how much of a perfectionist I can be! lol


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on January 01, 2011, 02:48:09 pm
Ah, we even share perfectionism. Awesome. ;)

Well, I can say it's paid off, at least!

EDIT: Wow, that confused me thoroughly for a second...


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 01, 2011, 02:48:30 pm
In any case...

on with the timeline!!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 01, 2011, 11:50:57 pm
9 DECEMBER 2011

BREAKING: NEW JERSEY SEN. FRANK LAUTENBERG'S HEALTH DECLINING; SENATOR RUSHED TO HOSPITAL

(http://images.politico.com/global/news/100324_lautenberg_ap_218.jpg)

Senator Frank Lautenberg(D-NJ), the eldest member of the Senate was taken into Georgetown University Hospital today. The Senator is said to be suffering from moderate pneumonia and severe dehydration. Lautenberg (87) will make his 88th birthday next month. The Senator's condition has been described as "critical." While Lautenberg's likelihood of survival is favorable, it is unclear whether or not he will continue his service in the Senate. If Lautenberg were to die or step down due to his health, the Democrats would be at the mercy of Governor Christie; Christie would appoint a successor to Lautenberg. Because of the party switch of Sen. Lieberman(R-CT), if Christie were to appoint a Republican, the Democratic Majority would be down to 51 seats.  

UPDATE: LAUTENBERG TO VACATE SENATE SEAT OVER HEALTH CONCERNS


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on January 02, 2011, 12:16:13 pm
continue!!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 03, 2011, 11:13:10 am
I'm a huge fan of those maps, and I know that that when you're dealing with minute details like house districts, it is time consuming. Such an awesome job!

:)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on January 03, 2011, 11:21:55 am
Christine Todd Whitman seems to be the obvious choice here, though Christie could decide to go with his Lt. Governor.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 03, 2011, 11:35:21 am
14 DECEMBER 2011

CHRISTIE TO APPOINT MODERATE REPUBLICAN FRANK LOBIONDO TO SENATE

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TSH6aiAz40I/AAAAAAAAB40/Lkt-IylKqt8/s1600/newj.png)

As Senator Frank Lautenberg has vacated the Senate due to health concerns, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (R) has announced that he will appoint moderate Republican Congressman Frank LoBiondo. Christie maintains " I am pleased to appoint a true fighter for New Jersey to the Senate. Both Frank LoBiondo's colleagues and his constituents can attest to his bipartisan approach to problem solving and his common-sense perspective. While Frank will be causing with the Republicans, I have no doubt that he will cross the aisle on issues such as the environment, spending and other issues. That is why I am proud to choose Frank; he has proven to be an independent voice for New Jersey and I expect him to do well in the Senate."

A Class II Special Election will be held next November in conjunction with the Regular Class I election, thus the seats of both New Jersey Senators, Menendez and LoBiondo, will be up for election. Most analysts predict LoBiondo will run for a full term.
While this appointment narrows the Democratic Majority in the Senate to just 51-49, there is some good news for Democrats:
-As a result of redistricting, LoBiondo's vacant House seat has a projected PVI of D+3. This will be a prime pickup opportunity for House Democrats. With Obama coattails in New Jersey, LoBiondo's House seat is now a top priority for the DCCC.
-Because LoBiondo will be running for a full term, his voting record will undoubtedly move even further to the left. Already, he has voted for such things as Cap and Trade. Democrats will have his vote on many key pieces of legislature. Also, because he is endorsed by Christie and has high name recognition, he LoBiondo will be relatively safe from a primary challenge.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 03, 2011, 11:50:14 am
15 DECEMBER 2011

PPP: New Jersey Poll


Analysis: In our first look at the NJ  Special Election, Frank LoBiondo is in pretty decent shape. While only 59% of Republicans view him favorably, he gets the approval of 23% of Democrats; that type of crossover support is rare in this climate. He narrowly leads two Democrats in hypothetical matches and a strong plurality of respondents see him as moderate. Because Republicans will likely vote for LoBiondo anyway in the general election, his primary focus now should be to build up a center-left voting record to attract even more Democrats. Senator Bob Mendez posts slightly positive, but mediocre, approvals, as he has his entire term.

Do approve of Governor Christie's choice of Frank LoBiondo?
Yes-39%
No-29%
Unsure-32%

Do you approve of Senator Menedez's job performance?
Yes-41%
No-39%

In the Special Election this November, would you vote for Frank LoBiondo(R) or Jon Adler(D)?
LoBiondo-40%
Adler-37%

In the Special Election this November, would you vote for Frank LoBiondo(R) or Rush Holt(D)?
LoBiondo-42%
Holt-39%

Would you consider LoBiondo to be conservative, liberal, or moderate?
Moderate-41%
Conservative-27%
Liberal-21%

New Jersey District 2 Poll

Did you approve of the work Frank LoBiondo did as your Representative?
Yes-60%
No-34%

Generally speaking, in 2012, would you vote for Barack Obama or a Republican?
Obama-46%
Republican-42%

Are you planning to vote to elect Sen. LoBiondo to a full term in 2012?
Yes-59%
No-30%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 04, 2011, 11:11:18 am
27 DECEMBER 2011

After a contentious Republican debate and with one week leading up to the Iowa caucus, Governor Branstad endorses Mitt Romney. While this endorsement gives the Romney campaign extra speed going into the final week, many wonder if it will be enough to overtake Huckabee, as most polls have Romney and Palin in a close contest- for second place.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TSM_2yYrFAI/AAAAAAAAB48/eEMMUf3nmlQ/s1600/branstad.jpg)

While this is no doubt a very high-profile and crucial endorsement, other Republican heavyweights have also made endorsements:

Romney Endorsements:
-Gov. Terry Branstad
-Sen. Chuck Grassley
-Gov. Scott Walker
-Gov. Tom Corbett
-Sen. Roy Blunt
-Sen. Kelly Ayotte
-Sen. Mark Kirk
-Frmr Sen. Connie Mack
-Gov. Ric Snyder
-Frmr. Chair Michael Steele
-Sen. Lindsey Graham
-Frmr Sen. Mel Martinez

Huckabee Endorsements:
-Sen. David Vitter
-Sen. John Boozman
-Gov. Bobby Jindal
-Gov. Bill Haslam
-Gov. Bob Bentley
-Frmr. Gov Bob Riley
-Rep. Duncan Hunter
-Sen. Bob Corker
-Frmer Sen. Trent Lott
-Frmer Sen. Rick Santorum
-Chuck Norris

Palin Endorsements:
-Sen. Jim DeMint
-Rep. Michele Bachmann
-Rep. Steve King
-Gov. Susana Martinez
-Gov. Jan Brewer
-John Raese
-Gov. Nikki Haley
-Sen. Mike Lee
-Sen. Rand Paul
-Sen. John McCain
-Gov. John Kasich
-Gov. Rick Perry
-Sen. Ron Johnson
-Sen. Jim Inhofe

Gingrich Endorsements:
-Gov. Nathan Deal
-Sen. Jeff Sessions
-Rep. Eric Cantor
-Sen. Richard Burr
-Sen. Lamar Alexander
-Sen. John Kyl




Selzer and Co.: Iowa GOP Poll

Huckabee: 31%
Romney:25%
Palin:24%
Gingrich:14%



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on January 04, 2011, 01:23:16 pm
I love how out of place Chuck Norris looks on that list of endorsements. All these people with high-rank titles and then, out of nowhere, "Chuck Norris."

Anyway - keep it up. ;D


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on January 04, 2011, 02:01:01 pm
haha I agree with svensson


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 05, 2011, 11:33:41 am
30 DECEMBER 2011

With only days until the Iowa Caucus, pollsters are making final calls.

It seems that Huckabee is set to pull off another Iowa win. In the general election, Huckabee and Romney essentially tie Obama while Gingirch and Palin trail badly.

SurveyUSA:
Huckabee- 30%
Romney-26%
Palin-26%
Gingirch-14%

Selzer and Co.:
Huckabee-31%
Palin-26%
Romney-25%
Gingrich-15%

General Election Polls: (IA only)

Huckabee- 45%
Obama- 44%

Obama-46%
Romney-44%

Obama-53%
Palin-40%

Obama-52%
Gingrich-38%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Mehmentum on January 06, 2011, 04:54:40 pm
Awesome!  This is very beleivable and interesting!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 06, 2011, 06:51:35 pm
1 JANUARY 2012

In seeking a return to the Senate after a 2-year "hiatus" Democrat Russ Feingold has picked up his first, and probably only challenger, Republican House freshman Sean Duffy. In 2010, Duffy won an open seat that was being vacated by 42-year veteran Democrat David Obey. Citied as one of the most ambitious GOP rising stars, most predict that the Republican establishment, as well as the majority of the WI Tea Party, will back Duffy.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TSZCpQ0hqXI/AAAAAAAAB5M/J-ANnWoEHyk/s1600/feinduff.png)
  
Duffy:
In 2010, the news of my candidacy sent David Obey running for retirement. This year, we will challenge another typical politician; Russ Feingold. In his all too-long 18 years in the Senate, Mr. Feingold supported irresponsible legislation, such as bloated budgets, the job-killing healthcare bill as well as the wasteful stimulus package. Mr. Feingold's Senate record can be characterized as reckless and inconsiderate. In short , Wisconsin cannot allow this tax-and-spend liberal to return to Washington.
That is why I am running for Senate. I want to give the voters of this state the choice that they deserve. The differences between Mr. Feingold and myself could not be more stark. As your Senator, I will follow in the footsteps of Senator Johnson. In this state that has sent Democrats to the Senate for years, my friend Senator Johnson was truly a breath of fresh air. In the House, I have fought for conservative principles; I have offered up amendments to reign in the reckless budget that House Republicans inherited from the Pelosi days. I have made sure our troops and military have had the funds that they need to succeed. I have worked closely with Speaker Boehner and Chairman Paul Ryan to cut funding to wasteful government programs.
In 2010, Republicans put Wisconsin on a new a path to freedom and prosperity. In 2012, I am confident that Wisconsin voters will continue to approve of the Republican's solutions. Thank you!


Feingold :
My friends, 2012 is here!! This is our chance! This will be our year to reclaim Wisconsin!! During 2011, while I was teaching at Marquette University, I was also travelling the state, talking to middle class families. Because of the policies of Congressional Republicans are advocating, these hard-working citizens are hurting. That is why I want to go back to the Senate; I will stand up for our middle class just like did for 18 years.
While Representative Ryan is quick to brag about his accomplishments for business, I have rarely heard him discuss his plans for our middle-class and the unemployed. In fact, if it were up to Rep. Duffy, the government would play no role in creating or sustaining jobs, rather, our workers would be at the mercy of market forces. Imagine if FDR shared Mr. Duffy's views! The Great Depression would have lasted for decades! My friends, that is why my opponent is too extreme for Wisconsin.
When I was in the Senate, I was famous for my disdain for lobbyists. So far, Mr. Duffy has taken almost $500,000 from oil and financial interests. Senator Johnson has already proven that he serves the Chamber of Commerce, not the citizens of Wisconsin. We don't need to reward greed again by electing another Republican to the Senate.  


A PPP hypothetical poll back in November found Feingold leading Duffy 46-36, however, to many, Duffy was unkown.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 06, 2011, 07:27:05 pm
1 JANUARY 2012

With 2012 beginning, here is our Senate polling outlook:

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TSZdUM21vmI/AAAAAAAAB5s/K7BhInR_5NE/s1600/2012-1.png)

D: 19
R: 9
I: 1


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 08, 2011, 02:10:11 am
3 JANUARY 2012

The Iowa Caucus

With almost all votes in, the winner is...MIKE HUCKABEE.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TSgFhCMbBTI/AAAAAAAAB58/IsE7uO_39nw/s1600/GOPIA.png)

As most pollsters and analysts had predicted Huckabee finished strong while Palin and Romney fought for second place. Gingrich finished a distant fourth with less than 12%.


(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TSgFlG9wAcI/AAAAAAAAB6E/FOSweL79Wug/s1600/IA.png)

Geographically, Romney was not able to extend his reach beyond the more liberal counties in the east. On the opposite side of the state, we see a similar issue with Palin. While she built up an impressive firewall in the west, and won a few central counties, she underperformed in the northern-central region, as conservatives there broke for Huckabee. Gingrich failed to carry a single county.

(http://i.huffpost.com/gen/221203/thumbs/s-MIKE-HUCKABEE-IOWA-JUDGES-large.jpg)
"Tonight is a great night not only for my campaign and for Iowa voters, but for the entire conservative grassroots movement that is sweeping the nation. As I've traveled Iowa, and the nation, people have been coming up to me saying "Mike, what are we going to do about our future? Will you please run for President." I felt like I had nothing less than an obligation to the American people; I had to run so that America can have the type of honest government that it deserves. That is why we won tonight; Iowa Republicans approve of my new direction for America. A Huckabee Administration will involve transparent leadership and accountability.
My friends, what we have now is crisis of leadership that must be corrected. Iowa voters showed tonight that they trust my tested, conservative and responsible record of governing. When I go to Washington, I will end this mentality of  trying to 'spend our problems away.' I understand that we must build a new economy by staying within our means and cutting back on waste. I haven't lived my life waiting for the government to rescue me; instead, I knew that the path to prosperity would require me to be hard-working and patient; those are the values I will fight for. As President, I will work closely with Speaker Boehner and Leader McConnell to craft legislation that will carry out these values. We must realize that government today is doing much more harm than good, like wasting our tax dollars with the Stimulus bill and taking choice away from our consumers with the job-killing Healthcare bill. As President, I will fight tooth-and-nail to repeal these massive intrusions of government into our lives, because I believe in the power of the free market, and more importantly, the American people.
My friends, while we will enjoy this victory tonight, tomorrow, its on to New Hampshire. This victory will give our campaign the crucial momentum it needs to go forward in these next few weeks. On to New Hampshire, on to the White House!"


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on January 08, 2011, 02:11:54 am
Praise the Lord it wasn't Palin.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 08, 2011, 09:39:02 pm
6 JANUARY 2012

While Huckabee emerged from the Iowa caucus with a 6-point victory, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina seem like they will different stories for Huckabee.
Romney and Palin are both approaching 40% in NV and SC, respectively. Interestingly, NH seems like it will be surprisingly close.

University of New Hampshire: GOP Poll
Romney-36%
Palin- 31%
Huckabee- 15%
Gingrich- 9%

Mason-Dixion: NV GOP Poll
Romney- 37%
Palin- 26%
Huckabee- 17%
Gingrich- 10%

Quinnipiac: SC GOP Poll
Palin- 38%
Huckabee- 25%
Gingrich- 16%
Romney- 14%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on January 08, 2011, 09:58:07 pm
I'm hoping that Palin comes closer in New Hampshire and sustains her lead in South Carolina. Still an awesome TL.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: albaleman on January 08, 2011, 10:00:35 pm
Excellent! GO PALIN (so that Obama can win in a landslide)!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on January 09, 2011, 01:08:34 pm
Excellent! GO PALIN (so that Obama can win in a landslide)!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 09, 2011, 09:18:32 pm
6 JANUARY 2012

We can project that Mitt Romney will win the low-profile Wyoming Convention in 2 days. Also, new polling from Michigan shows Romney well ahead. Much of the state Republican Party, including Governor Snyder and Lt. Gov Brian Calley have backed Romney.

Detroit News: GOP Primary Poll
Romney- 41%
Palin- 23%
Huckabee- 19%
Gingrich- 10%

With Gingrich very low in the polls and Huckabee investing heavily in the later-to-come southern states, it looks at this point like a contest between Romney and Palin.

With the New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada primaries approaching, high profile statewide figures in those states are making endorsements:


NH
Sen. Kelly Ayotte is returning a favor from 2010 and endorsing Sarah Palin. Ironically, the man Palin helped Ayotte beat in her primary, Ovide Lamontgne is also getting behing Palin.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TSpUuTBqi0I/AAAAAAAAB6c/NR5hpd_0Mc4/s1600/ayp.png)

The highest endorsement Romney got was from Former Senator Judd Gregg. Gregg, whose father was a Governor, still holds considerable clout with Republicans in his home state. He also remains popular with Independent voters; since this will be an open primary, Gregg will be critical to drawing Independents to vote for Romney.
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TSpVkhYqzgI/AAAAAAAAB6k/sLsaFOILnv0/s1600/gregg.jpg)

NV
Romney is winning the endorsement war here. Early on, he was endorsed by Governor Brian Sandoval. Since then, he has been endorsed by Former NV Party Chair Sue Lowden and Congressman Joe Heck. Also, embattled Senator John Ensign has backed him, who is in the fight of his life to keep his party's nomination; Ensign is hoping that Romney, will also endorse him. Senate candidate Dean Heller has yet to endorse. The sole, but influential, major endorsement Palin has received is from 2010 Senate nominee Sharron Angle. Despite her larger-than-expected loss in 2010, Angle is popular with the Tea Party and she is rallying conservatives for Palin.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TSpoHGSD_eI/AAAAAAAAB7M/fpP2cQOyMzc/s1600/nvgop.png)
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TSpiTEzS4jI/AAAAAAAAB60/4tK6upsTqiQ/s1600/angp.png)

SC
SC seems to be a reversal of NV, as Palin has racked up far more endorsements here than Romney. Despite Huckabee's southern roots, his campaign isn't very competitive here. Two of Palin's foremost political allies, Sen. DeMint and Governor Haley almost immediately endorsed her. Also, Congressional freshman Mick Mulvaney and Trey Gowdy, who were swept in with the 2010 wave, have campaign for Palin.
Senator Lindsey Graham, a sure 2014 "target" for the tea party, has endorsed Romney, along with Former Congressman Bob Inglis, himself a victim of the tea party. As in NH, Romney's strategy here involves getting Independents to vote Republican. While polls show him trailing by about 13% with only Republicans, Romney will try to net in as many moderate Independents as possible.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TSpkNdm-1sI/AAAAAAAAB7E/2D0rpWz1sJQ/s1600/scp.png)
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TSpjz1WgC9I/AAAAAAAAB68/55vGd5k1_pg/s1600/scr.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Mehmentum on January 09, 2011, 09:25:17 pm
It looks like a long drought for Huckabee.  I predict he withers before Super Tuesday.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 10, 2011, 01:23:51 pm
7 JANUARY 2012

In our latest Senate development, it looks like the race to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison has gotten more interesting. Barbara Bush, daughter of former President George W. Bush, has announced that she will seek that seat. Bush (30), would be the youngest woman ever elected to the Senate.
The Republican field already includes State Ag. Commissioner Todd Staples, Rep. Mike Conaway, Rep. Blake Farenthold and Speaker of the TX House Joe Straus.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TStKxH2QnbI/AAAAAAAAB7Y/nIjlNQfmtEs/s1600/barbara1.jpg)

PPP: Texas GOP Poll

While Bush is leading by a solid 14 points, she will probably need to do more campaigning, especially with her father, if she hopes to avoid a runoff. At this point, Bush is definitely looking like the frontrunner.

Do you approve of the job Kay Bailey Hutchison did in the Senate?
Yes- 45%
No- 45%

Do you have a favorable view of George W. Bush?
Yes-71%
No-21%

Who are you leaning towards voting for in the Republican primary?
Bush- 37%
Staples- 23%
Straus- 15%
Conaway- 12%
Farenthold- 11%



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 10, 2011, 03:55:42 pm
8 JANUARY 2012

Mitt Romney has won the Wyoming GOP Convention.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TStx1EFIxzI/AAAAAAAAB7o/KnqtJ8Moe44/s1600/gopwy.png)

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TStx06a9WVI/AAAAAAAAB7g/dIcEZ9gkv7Q/s1600/WY.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on January 10, 2011, 03:57:59 pm
Least surprising primary victory ever.

Stopped by just to say that. :) Oh, and keep up the good work. *disappears again*


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on January 10, 2011, 05:11:08 pm
Stunning victory! ;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Liberalrocks on January 15, 2011, 08:01:33 pm
Good Thread. I really "hope" Palin is the nominee.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 17, 2011, 09:04:37 pm
10 JANUARY 2012

Tonight, Mitt Romney gets two steps closer to the Republican nomination. In New Hampshire, he has held off a close challenge from Sarah Palin. Because the New Hampshire GOP has drifted further to the right, Palin came within striking distance of winning. However, it roughly 35% of the voters in this primary were Independent; these voters most likely put Romney over the top. Final numbers have Romney winning by less than two points, a close but sweet win for the Governor.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TTTwDynu5FI/AAAAAAAAB84/RZAUBVfhMAw/s1600/gopnh.png)
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TTTwOIsNf3I/AAAAAAAAB9A/m_ix7xzR9_o/s1600/NH.png)

In Michigan, Romney has won a commanding victory. Romney's father, George, was the Governor of Michigan in the 60's and Romney himself is a native of Detroit.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TTTwDhTrv_I/AAAAAAAAB8w/VBUDDnfgbzI/s1600/GOPMI.png)
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TTTwOk1eYcI/AAAAAAAAB9I/9Ck5jOm-YD8/s1600/MI.png)




Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 23, 2011, 04:38:16 pm
21 JANUARY 2012

In the second major round of primaries, Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin each score landslide victories. While this contest seems to be turning into a match between Palin and Romney, the Huckabee campaign insists that it is investing more in the later, Super Tuesday states. It seems all but immanent that Newt Gingrich will drop out before Super Tuesday, as he has garnered 10% or less of the vote in most primaries so far.

In Nevada Mitt Romney has scored a 23-point point victory over Sarah Palin.
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TTyUAMEGATI/AAAAAAAAB-A/PVdl7Xf2vos/s1600/nvnom.png)
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TTyUQxYz8hI/AAAAAAAAB-Q/22QAS7h9Fzs/s1600/romneynv.png)


(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TTye9q_5-mI/AAAAAAAAB-g/mwk0e2-aTEY/s1600/romnn.jpg)

"Thank you Nevada! This night marks my fourth primary victory in row! With the help, support and votes of our friends around the county, we will be on the road to the Republican nomination.
All my life, I have been fighting liberalism; the same liberalism that is being embraced by the White House. I've seen first-hand the effects of this corrosive philosophy. In Massachusetts, I ran against Ted Kennedy. While the outcome wasn't exactly what I wanted, I was proud to take a stand for the conservative movement. Years later, my efforts were repaid as the people of Massachusetts elected me to be their governor. Before I was elected, Massachusetts was one of the great epicenters of liberalism, like Nancy Pelosi's San Francisco, or Barack Obama's Chicago. I put my state on a course to financial success and long-term sustainability because of the bold consevartive actions I took in the statehouse. Also, as governor, I built as a solid record of bipartisanship with the Democratic Legislature. These two things, conservatism and bipartisanship, will be the outline of a Romney presidency.  
I think my record stands on solid. I've had vast experience in both sectors, private and public. My approach of fiscal restraint and living within my means has been the cornerstone of my life's endeavors. I've done that with the Olympics, I've done that in Massachusetts and I'll do that in the Washington as your president.
In my public work, I have fought to strengthen the American people. And let me tell you, we need to call on the strength of America; you don't strengthen government, you strengthen the American people. You strengthen the American people by letting them keep more of their own money, and not taxing their families at death. You strengthen the American people by securing our borders and by insisting that the children who come legally to this land are taught in English. And perhaps most importantly, you strengthen the American people when you strengthen the American family; this is why the Republican party place such an emphasis on family values. If our families are strong, our children will be better suited for the challenges of America in the future.
Now is the time, starting here in Nevada, for conservatives, Republicans and Americans to stand together, to lead a great coalition of strength! For our families, for our economy and for our country. We will win this nomination and we will win in November! God bless Nevada, and may God bless this great land!"


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 23, 2011, 05:20:51 pm
21 JANUARY 2012

The second major primary of the night, South Carolina, has handily gone to Sarah Palin.

The former Alaska governor has won by a commanding 22-points (similar to Romney's margin in Nevada).
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TTyUQlIExtI/AAAAAAAAB-I/y-0AAPRChFU/s1600/nvnom.png)
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TTyURHjyJxI/AAAAAAAAB-Y/cBSoKQ056oQ/s1600/palinsc.png)

In something of a symbolic gesture, Palin is introduced by her former running-mate, John McCain. McCain, who won the SC primary in 2008, is widely credited for giving Palin here vast political clout.
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TTyigR9rFxI/AAAAAAAAB-o/FsR0Kd47wbo/s1600/mccan.jpg)

McCain:
"My friends, tonight I am proud to stand with you. More importantly, I have the privilege of introducing one of America's greatest patriots, Sarah Palin.
In 2008, when I chose to share my ticket with Governor Palin, I knew she had potential. Over these years, she has lived out her potential and I am confident that their is more to come! Even though the election did not favor us in the end, I am still proud to stand with Sarah! She has traveled the country and, I assure you, no one is more in touch with the thoughts and needs of our people than Sarah! As she has gone around the country, she has helped to prop up candidates who will be faithful to our great Constitution and who will carry out an agenda that will emphasize service to the American people. Because of the efforts of people like Sarah, and concerned, patriotic citizens across the country, the American people took away Nancy Pelosi's majority in the House! In 2012, I am confident that we can put Harry Reid and Barack Obama out of power as well! In 2008, conservatism was declared 'dead' by the media. Boy, were they wrong! In 2010, we made an unprecedented comeback and in 2012, with Sarah Palin, we will make a full-scale sweep of Washington! Please welcome Governor Palin!"

 
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TTylWnEek1I/AAAAAAAAB-w/GO21ud-hFKo/s1600/palinle.jpg)

Palin:
 My friends, lets thank Senator McCain for that great introduction. He is right, 2012 will be a year of great Republican gains. I have been going around the country trying to get constitutional conservative candidates, like John McCain, elected to Congress. Thanks to our efforts, and the power of the tea party, the American fired Nancy Pelosi and said "No!" to her socialist agenda. This year, Americans will send a similar message to the White House and to the Senate! President Obama and Leader Reid will be joining Pelosi on the sidelines of American politics as new conservative Republicans will be elected! The President claims that he is running as grassroots campaign, but nothing is more grassroots than the average citizens in the tea party who are backing my candidacy.
My friends, South Carolina is ground zero for the state of our country. It suffers an unemployment rate of 9.2% and prices for even the most common things are rising. With the landmark of election of Governor Haley in 2010, this state is once again on its way to prosperity. As President, I will reinforce Governor Haley's efforts by enacting pro-growth polices that will make life for South Carolinians, and for all Americans, better and freer. I have a record of  protecting of Americans and taxpayers, such as my vetoes of wasteful spending and my strong executive experiences.
In the 80's Ronald Reagan didn't get America back on track by spending and expanding government. Rather, he promoted common-sense conservatism that sparked the innovative nature of our country. The result was a thriving economy. Lets be clear; 2012 will be 1980 all over again!
As president, I will work my Momma Grizzlies and constitutional conservatives in Congress to reenact measures that are similar to those of President Reagan's were in the 80's.
For now, it will a time of campaigning. Thank you South Carolina, the momentum we have built here will carry use through to the Republican nomination and into the White House! God bless the Republican party, God bless the tea party, and Gob bless America!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 23, 2011, 06:17:52 pm
21 JANUARY 2012

With only a few primaries left until Super Tuesday, Romney has a commanding lead with projected delegates.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TTy20-zYspI/AAAAAAAAB_Q/qC0jchN-kpc/s1600/GOPDELG.png)

Romney-156
Palin-54
Huckabee-35


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 24, 2011, 08:34:16 pm
In addition to the Presidential and Senate races, 2012 will have some closely watched Gubernatorial races. Specifically, the contests in North Carolina and Washington will be quite interesting. In both states, we have unpopular, blond, female Democratic incumbents.
In Washington, despite a net approval rating of -16, Gov. Gregoire will be running for a third term, as WA has no Gubernatorial term limits. Her opponent will be the well-respected WA Attny. General Rob McKenna.
In North Carolina, Gov. Bev Perdue will be fighting for a second term in a rematch against former Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory. Despite her poor approvals, she remains competitive in the polls because some rural voters are hesitant to support a city slicker like McCrory.
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TT4oCNldYPI/AAAAAAAAB_Y/a-veu2eQO1M/s1600/mcp.png)
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TT4oChS8ieI/AAAAAAAAB_g/AVc8LaCzXOI/s1600/greg.png)

PPP: NC Gov. Poll
Perdue Approval: 38/51
McCrory Favorable: 44/41

NC Gov. General Election:
McCrory- 46%
Perdue^- 41%

PPP: Washington Gov. Poll
Gregoire Approval: 39/55
McKenna: Favorable: 36/22

WA Gov. General Election:
McKenna: 47%
Gregoire^: 39%

In two other states, ND and WV, Gubernatorial races are taking form.
Former Rep. Earl Pomeroy, who lose his seat in the 2010 GOP wave, will be running for the statehouse being vacated by Gov. Jack Darlrymple.
In West Virginia, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito will be vacating her seat to run for Governor. Earl Ray Tomblin, the sitting Governor, will not be seeking a full term.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: albaleman on January 24, 2011, 11:14:21 pm
Fantastic!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on January 25, 2011, 12:46:24 pm
C'mooon, McKenna. :D


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 26, 2011, 05:28:51 pm
24 JANUARY 2012

**Breaking News**Breaking News**Breaking News**

GINGRICH GONE; ENDORSES PALIN

(http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/assets_c/2009/05/gingrich-confused-529-490-cropped-proto-custom_2.jpg)

"...At this time, I will concede my bid for the Republican nomination. Sadly, I do not see how the primary situation will turn out in my favor.
To all those who have worked on my campaign, and to all those whose votes I have earned, I thank you very much. Your support has meant so much to me; I will never be able to repay your generosity. I'd like to especially thank my dedicated staff and my family; they have propelled me through this process and inspired me to pore everything I had into this campaign.
While my best efforts were not enough to secure the Republican nod, fortunately for the American people, there is still an excellent Republican running in this race; a fine conservative dedicated to restoring our nations founding values. This is why I will encourage my supporters to get behind Sarah Palin. Governor Palin is a tremendous force in American politics and a strong figurehead of the conservative movement. She is a family woman who embodies the ideals of America. She knows that the basis for long term prosperity will not be attained by expanding government or entitlement, but rather, it can be found in the Constitution. She has worked to keep America strong, both at home and abroad and she will be a powerful force against radical Islam. That is why I endorse Sarah Palin..."


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on January 26, 2011, 06:36:29 pm
Oh, God. Now there's a united base of stupid.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on January 27, 2011, 12:59:02 pm
The Tea Party base is still divided between Palin and Huckabee. Romney's going to be the nominee.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 27, 2011, 02:54:05 pm
26 JANUARY 2012

Tonight, all three remaining Republicans scored victories. The states of Louisiana, Hawaii and Maine had primaries (or caucuses) today.

After suffering a sting of primary loses, Mike Huckabee rebounds with a commanding Louisiana win. Geographically, Huckabee sweeps most of the state, as Palin only wins areas on the coast and river delta, while Romney is limited to Baton Rouge and New Orleans.
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUHKV1HXT7I/AAAAAAAAB_w/VkRcGQZpqoI/s1600/lahh.png)
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUHKVyitsaI/AAAAAAAAB_o/TxFssfhgU5M/s1600/lah.png)

In Maine, Palin scores a landslide 38-point victory over Mitt Romney, thanks in large part to the Maine GOP's newly adopted tea party platform.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUHK_Tg_sdI/AAAAAAAACAA/RDz3BoYzx0Y/s1600/mep.png)
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUHK_EZTRwI/AAAAAAAAB_4/t2GO64XwMQA/s1600/ME.png)

Finally, Romney wins the Hawaii caucus. Boring.
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUHLI9g2fiI/AAAAAAAACAQ/0HpcRjhlyi0/s1600/hirr.png)
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUHLImCVDCI/AAAAAAAACAI/2H8gfS97Dwo/s1600/HI.png)



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 27, 2011, 03:01:45 pm
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUHOQyE6_hI/AAAAAAAACAY/_urb-BUG-ls/s1600/GOPDELG.png)

Romney-175
Huckabee-89
Palin-77


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on January 27, 2011, 06:08:50 pm
Go Palin haha


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on January 28, 2011, 11:29:22 pm
I don't see how a revision of the state party platform would change the results of the election that much. Maine is Romney Country, and will remain Romney Country in 2012. And on the off chance Palin were to ever win it, it would be razor-thin, at least.

Other than that, this is good! Keep it up :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 29, 2011, 05:58:39 pm
The Maine primary is a closed caucus, which would favor the most ideologically pure candidate. Still, maybe I overinflated Palin's margin.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 29, 2011, 10:30:55 pm
27 JANUARY 2012

GATES TO RETIRE

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUSlgBy8p1I/AAAAAAAACBA/nDak60P3kwE/s1600/sod.jpg)
In a press conference today, US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates announced his retirement, saying that he will leave office by the end of February. Gates maintained that his retirement was entirely for personal reasons, and he praised President Obama, his staff and other members of the Presidential Cabinet.

The outgoing Secretary said that he was privileged to play such a pivotal in "reshaping America's diplomatic process and molding a new and distinct direction for American policy abroad." Gates noted the "progress made in Iraq and Afghanistan in creating a freer world" and his "extensive budgetary work" as the hallmarks of his tenure. He noted that he tried to bring a "culture of fiscal restraint, moderation and restraint" to the Department of Defense; Gates recommended to that his successor should take a similar approach so that the military would be on a solid financial footing.

Gates noted that he was proud to have presided over of and coordinated the technical aspects of the repeal of the DADT policy; he said that DADT repeal was a "great asset to the armed forces" and he was glad that that Congress showed the "fundamental respect and common decency" that made repeal possible.

When Gates does leave office, he will be replaced on an interim basis by Gordon English, one of his deputies. President Obama is expected to appoint a permanent Secretary after his 2012 campaign, assuming he is reelected.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 29, 2011, 11:04:59 pm
28 JANUARY 2012

Looking back at the Republican contest,  the upcoming Florida Primary is looming large. This will be the last primary before Super Tuesday. All three candidates have been around the state trying to collect votes in preparation for the February 7 primary. However, the endorsement that was which was most sought was that of Governor Scott. Today, Scott made his decision:

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUThRJgkF4I/AAAAAAAACBQ/thUl3-M41L4/s1600/rick_scott.jpg)

"Today, I will be joining many other governors across the county, such as my friends Susana Martinez and Rick Perry, in endorsing Governor Sarah Palin for president. Palin will bring a much needed breath of fresh air to Washington and offers a wealth of meaningful experiences, both at the professional and personal level. If the conservative brand must continue, Republicans must elect leaders who carry out our vision for America, in the field of candidates this year, Sarah is best equipped to do that. A governor who fights for fiscal conservatism, I relate to Sarah. Florida Republicans are a smart group of voters; once they examine each candidate, I am confident that Governor Plain will win this primary."

Scott's endorsement of Palin was more to spite Romney than anything else. In the close primary between Rick Scott and Bill McCollum in 2010, Romney campaigned for McCollum. Ever since, relations between Romney and Scott have been strained.


Zogby: FL GOP Poll

Who do you plan on voting for in this primary?
Palin-33%
Romney-29%
Huckabee-23%

Will Governor Scott's endorsement be a factor in your vote?
Yes-57%
No-39%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on January 29, 2011, 11:25:34 pm
AGH! Scott, you useless cockroach! >:(

...*ahem* Sorry, I think I got too into it there for a second. Gotta hate Palin! :D


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 29, 2011, 11:43:09 pm
AGH! Scott, you useless cockroach! >:(

...*ahem* Sorry, I think I got too into it there for a second. Gotta hate Palin! :D

Don't worry, I agree with you ;)

Rick Scott should be behind bars, not in the Governor's mansion!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Mehmentum on January 30, 2011, 12:14:09 am
Palin and Huckabee split the conservative vote... Romney has the advantage unless one of them withdraws.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 30, 2011, 12:48:12 am
28 JANUARY 2012

While Florida will be a critical state at the Presidential level, the race to replace retiring Sen. Bill Nelson is looking like it will one of the most entertaining in the county. Both parties have 2 prominent frontrunners seeking the nominations of their respective parties.

On the Democratic side, two candidates from 2010 will be competing once again; former Governor Charlie is running as a Democrat and will be facing former Congressman Kendrick Meek. This will be Crist's third run for the Senate and Meek's second. President Obama said that he will not be endorsing in this primary.

Two big-name Republicans will be fighting for the GOP nod. Former Senator George LeMeiux will be running against George P. Bush, the son of former Governor Jeb Bush.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUTyje7DpSI/AAAAAAAACBY/t4YyViAbQGI/s1600/flsen.png)

Major Endorsements:

Meek:
-frmr. Rep. Alan Grayson
-Rep. Debbie W-Schultz
-Rep. Frederica Wilson
-Rep. Alcee Hastings
-frmr. Sen. Roland Burris
-frmr. Rep. Ron Klein
-Pres. Bill Clinton

Crist:
-Gov. Gene Taylor
-frmr. Rep. Suzanne Kosmas
-frmr. Gov. Arnold Shwarzenegger
-frmr. Rep. Allen Boyd
-Rep. Kathy Castor
-Sen. Mary Landrieu
-2010 Gov. Candidate Alex Sink

LeMiuex:
-frmr. Sen. Connie Mack
-frmr. Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp
-frmr Sen. Connie Mack III
-Rep. Connie Mack IV
-Rep. Ander Crenshaw
-Sen. John McCain
-Sen. Richard Burr
-Sen. Lindsay Graham
 
Bush:
-Jeb Bush (obviously)
-Sen. Marco Rubio
-Pres. George Bush
-frmr. Sen. Mel Martinez
-Rep. Dan Webster
-Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
-Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart
-Rep. Vern Buchanan
-Gov. Bobby Jindal


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on January 30, 2011, 07:02:35 pm
7 FEBRUARY 2012

The AP can now project that Sarah Palin will be winning the Florida primary and the votes of Florida's 135 Convention delegates:

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUX6mymvEoI/AAAAAAAACBo/0ajIo-4Aslc/s1600/flgop.png)
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUX6mnY1VYI/AAAAAAAACBg/aiCsPJJU_Zo/s1600/FL.png)


Because of her FL victory, Palin will now overtake Romney in the delegate count leading up to Super Tuesday.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUX7YQ-xqFI/AAAAAAAACBw/-4Bj6qmArSU/s1600/GOPDELG.png)

Palin-212
Romney-175
Huckabee-89

...needless to say, Democrats are cheering.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on January 30, 2011, 07:03:29 pm
CRAP. Damn you, Rick Scott. >:(


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 02, 2011, 01:40:52 am
10 FEBRUARY 2012

Today, we have our first look at the 2012 House election.

The pollsters PPP, SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University have compiled a cumulative polling map of all 435 districts.

District Ratings are based on incumbent approvals, district PVI's and hypothetical match-ups.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUiacwH-BEI/AAAAAAAACCA/FDeHNyUTa4U/s1600/MILESredist%2B-%2BCopy%2B%25282%2529.png)
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUj78EYowoI/AAAAAAAACCQ/QE2EvI78BU8/s1600/ratingss.png)

Analysis:

"Our initial House map finds 197 districts in Democratic hands and 218 districts where the GOP is favored; 20 districts are purely tossups. Thus, the Republicans are starting this election cycle with the bare minimum number of seats needed to keep the House. In order for Speaker Boehner to lose his gavel, Democrats must sweep every "Swing" district and win one additional Republican district. Thats a tall order. We recommend that Democrats steer more funds towards keeping their Senate majority, as it is very unlikely that they will retake the House, at least for now.

However, there is some good news for Democrats. As a result of redistricting, unpopularity, or otherwise, 7 House incumbents are set to lose their seats, only 1 is a Democrat:

-Cravaack-MN
-Dold-IL
-Walsh-IL
-Harris-MD
-Farenthold-TX
-Donnelly-IN
-Meehan-PA

Also, Democrats are in a strong position to pick up two open seats; as Sean Duffy is running for Senate, Dems are likely to reclaim David Obey's seat. Also, Democrats are looking good to take the old House seat of Sen. Frank LoBiondo in New Jersey.

At least for now the GOP is probably going to retain the House, but a lot can change between now and November."


FULL SIZE HOUSE MAP:
http://postimage.org/image/2c182fyw4/full/


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on February 02, 2011, 09:54:00 am
Great, but one question: Why would the Oklahoma legislature make Boren's district safer than it currently is? They don't have much to lose by trying to gerrymander him out, considering all of the other districts in the state are very Republican.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 02, 2011, 01:43:10 pm
Great, but one question: Why would the Oklahoma legislature make Boren's district safer than it currently is? They don't have much to lose by trying to gerrymander him out, considering all of the other districts in the state are very Republican.

I had KS21 do OK for me.

Here's his response:

"Boren is a dynastic name and Boren's father (the popular former Senator) is the haed of OU. The name recognition alone gives him a substantial advantage over a GOP challenger regardless of how his district is designed."

I'd agree. Regardless of where his district is in eastern OK, he'd still be personally popular and he'd have name recognition.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 02, 2011, 09:18:04 pm
Late January Senate Polls:

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUoNQOFEF-I/AAAAAAAACCY/opFye6yUUnA/s1600/2012-1.png)

Competitive Races:
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUoOWKtzHaI/AAAAAAAACCo/xmUObB1u_XE/s1600/comp..png)

Races not likely to be competitive:
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUoOO91RS4I/AAAAAAAACCg/UB2Em9PazXc/s1600/unlk.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Mister Jellybean on February 03, 2011, 09:25:31 am
CRAP. Damn you, Rick Scott. >:(
Fraud <3 Palin


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 04, 2011, 07:43:11 am
Update soon??


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 04, 2011, 02:26:03 pm
EARLY FEBRUARY 2012

This month we have our final few Senate retirements. Two more Democrats have announced that they will not seek reelection. While these retirements are big news, neither of them is likely to put the Democrat's majority in jeopardy.

Popular 5-term New Mexico Senator Jeff Bingaman, Chairman of the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, will not be seeking a 6th term. While this is an unusual move for such a powerful Chairman, Bingaman acknowledged that he wanted to step down in order to "better focus on solving America's energy problems while promoting environmentally green solutions." The Senator said that he would be better positioned to do this in some other capacity then as a Senator, although he singled that he would not move to K Street. Some are speculating that President Obama will appoint him to a high-level position within the Department of Energy or the EPA.
In the race to replace him, popular Congressman Ben Ray Lujan said that he would be interested in running should Bingaman retire. Lujan will be running against Pete Domeinici Jr, the son of a former NM Senator. Still, Democrats don't have much to worry about here; Lujan is polling quite strongly.
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUxPGZ5XkBI/AAAAAAAACC0/tXdNN2X2DE4/s1600/nmm.png)

In Virginia, freshman Senator Jim Webb will not be seeking a second term. Webb maintained that the legislative process was to slow, citing the "languid and often frustrating nature of the Senate." To replace Webb, Democrats have drafted DNC Chairman Tim Kaine, a popular former governor. Kaine will be running against former Sen. George Allen, who lost his seat to Webb in the Democratic wave of 2006. Most polls show Kaine ahead of Allen.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUxQ3mhLDeI/AAAAAAAACC8/ZzNQOuOMMSc/s1600/vaa.png)

SurveyUSA Polls:

NM:
Lujan- 53%
Domeinici- 38%

VA:
Kaine- 50%
Allen- 45%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 04, 2011, 07:39:32 pm
OK, I'm glad with this retirements. I like Kaine better than I like Webb


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 04, 2011, 09:06:21 pm
9 FEBRUARY 2012

After the departure of Defense Secretary Robert Gates, President Obama makes some major cabinet changes...

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TUywMQoyegI/AAAAAAAACDM/gav0AmXBNLc/s1600/gall.obama.biden.clinton.jpg)
 
"Now, I would like to start off today by thanking Secretary Gates for his long career of service to this nation. His vast knowledge of policy and his grasp of issues, both political and administrative will certainly be missed and difficult to replace. Our next Secretary will have a strong performance to follow. For now, Gordon English will be the acting Secretary of Defense and I look forward to working with him in these next few months.
That said, today I want to lay out my future plans for the Department of Defense. Of course, my plans are contingent on my reelection; which I can assure you, I will be working quite diligently on!
For my second term, I will be appointing our current Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, to lead the Defense Department. Secretary Clinton has done an excellent job in her capacity as Secretary of State and I feel that our Defense Department will benefit from her strong record of legislative and diplomatic strength. While Secretary Gates, incoming Secretary English and myself have been working to mold a more sustainable and financially solid Department of Defense, I feel that Secretary Clinton is best fit to continue our work, as well as to carry out the other duties required for that office. Simply put, Secretary Clinton's impressive resume and her experience makes her quite suited for this office and I look forward to her work.
Now, for the State Department. Starting in January of 2013, Vice President Joe Biden will be leading that Department. Joe has been one of the leading voices in American foreign policy for decades. Joe's work on the Foreign Relations Committee has made him one of the foremost American actors on the international stage. From the Balkans to Iraq, fro  Europe to Afghanistan, Joe has seen it all. Thats why I chose him to be America's new international face."


...which means Obama will need a new VP in 2012.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 05, 2011, 04:30:37 pm
Before I get to Super Tuesday, lets look at Obama's approval ratings, just to see how he's faring.

Approval by state:

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TU4Qt5qeAvI/AAAAAAAACD0/B26APcUjjsE/s1600/OBAMA.APP.png)

NET APPROVAL SCALE
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TU29fh3_AeI/AAAAAAAACDc/2ptldVBsZZw/s1600/scalc.png)

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TU3BKeep1eI/AAAAAAAACDs/AzPc8SW9FZA/s1600/APPRV.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Mexino Vote on February 05, 2011, 04:35:49 pm
How does  Obama have  +1 in NC, a normally R state yet have -10 in Ohio? Just curious.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 05, 2011, 10:02:25 pm
How does  Obama have  +1 in NC, a normally R state yet have -10 in Ohio? Just curious.
Unemployment rate:

    Jan. 2011   Jan. 2012
OH    9.3%            9.2%
NC    9.6%            8.2%

estimated Democratic spending so far:
OH: 1.4 Million
NC: 2.7 Million


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on February 05, 2011, 10:03:36 pm
A nitpick: Indiana is lighter than Ohio despite having worse approvals.

:P This is very detailed. I like it!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 05, 2011, 10:07:30 pm
A nitpick: Indiana is lighter than Ohio despite having worse approvals.

:P This is very detailed. I like it!

Thanks Isaac! You're always here to pick out my mistakes!! hahaha

I think OH is actually too dark.

I'll fix it.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 08, 2011, 01:19:48 am
14 FEBRUARY 2012

SUPER TUESDAY

Tonight, I'll start rolling out results from Super Tuesday, I'll be doing this over the course of a few nights.

Lets begin!

♫(election music playing)♫

Our first state to be reporting will be Alabama, where Mike Huckabee has won a decisive victory. Huckabee had the backing of Governor Bentley and his predecessor, Bob Riley.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TVDfZAKxz_I/AAAAAAAACG8/EbRVOVCwX1g/s1600/algop.png)

Huckabee-51%
Palin-36%
Romney-12%

Our next state will be Arkansas, Huckabee's home state. As to be expected, Huck sweeps every county.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TVDfYQWQZQI/AAAAAAAACGk/pJt5gJqSdEg/s1600/argop.png)

Huckabee-61%
Palin-24%
Romney-14%

Team Romney scores a victory in Delaware. Despite the efforts of tea party leader Christine O'Donnell on behalf of Palin, the tea party has left a sour taste in the mouths of DE Republicans.
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TVDfYuB0BhI/AAAAAAAACGs/6kc-juJcnBs/s1600/degop.png)

Romney-52%
Palin-38%
Huckabee-9%

Huckabee, extending his winning streak in the south, will be carrying Georgia by a comfortable margin. After Gingrich dropped out, Governor Deal threw his clout to Huckabee and endorsed the former Arkansas Governor. Also, former Governor Sonny Purdue was one of Huckabee's first and foremost supporters this year. 
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TVDfZCq5PeI/AAAAAAAACG0/LE0K0MK5CX4/s1600/gagop.png)

Huckabee-50%
Palin-35%
Romney-14%

While Huckabee dominates the south, Romney is strong in the west; he scores a wide victory at the Colorado caucus. Colorado was a bright spot for Romney in his 2008 campaign as well.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TVDgJiUbbhI/AAAAAAAACHM/G0jVrRyfDl0/s1600/cogop.png)

Romney-59%
Palin-30%
Huckabee-9%

Palin scores her first victory of the night with a win in Arizona. She had the endorsement of Governor Brewer and stumped with the Arizona Governor. Notably, she did campaign here with her former running mate, John McCain; while McCain has moved to the ideological right, he remains unpopular with the GOP base, thus, he would have been considered a drag on Palin.
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TVDfsEV6U6I/AAAAAAAACHE/H6PUNA4KRXI/s1600/azgop.png)

Palin-53%
Romney-36%
Huckabee-10%

In Oklahoma, Huckabee has won a close race. Despite the presence of a "Mama Grizzly" in the statehouse, Team Huckabee invested heavily here from the beginning of th campaign season and it seems to have paid off .
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TVDfYZ6bTzI/AAAAAAAACGc/guXNuyq-IsA/s1600/okgop.png)

Huckabee-42%
Palin-40%
Romney-18%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on February 08, 2011, 01:20:51 am
Oh, thank God, Palin is finally starting to fall in the primaries.

For the love of everything sane, GO HUCKABEE!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 08, 2011, 02:33:48 pm
14 FEBRUARY 2012

SUPER TUESDAY PART II

We now have two New England states reporting. To nobody's surprise, Mitt Romney will be sweeping both his home state of Massachusetts as well as Connecticut.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TVGRQTkMhCI/AAAAAAAACHc/T6kBtsT5pfE/s1600/magop.png)

Romney-60%
Palin-26%
Huckabee-13%

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TVGRQUlTsOI/AAAAAAAACHU/SeduAKhbRIg/s1600/ctgop.png)
Romney-55%
Palin-30%
Huckabee-14%

Mike Huckabee will be scoring a victory in the Show-Me state; his rural appeal has delivered him the Missouri delegates.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TVGSuvN2lvI/AAAAAAAACHk/89nkIe5BWXg/s1600/MOGOP.png)
Huckabee-45%
Palin-32%
Romney-23%

In Minnesota, Sarah Palin has had considerable help from Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and Rep. Chip Cravaack. Thus, she will be winning Minnesota due to high turnout among tea partiers in Bachmann and Cravaack's districts.
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TVGSu687cOI/AAAAAAAACHs/hHp4_H9EPyI/s1600/mngop.png)
Palin-42%
Romney-37%
Huckabee-21%

Despite the rightward drift of the Republican electorate in Utah, Mitt Romney will be sweeping this state as well. In 2008, he got nearly 90% of the vote here, this year, his performance in Utah was worse, but he will still win the state in a 65-point landslide.
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TVGUhCAFVVI/AAAAAAAACH8/H5u8uM-brA8/s1600/utgop.png)
Romney-79%
Palin-14%
Huckabee-7%

We can project that Romney can also add the Illinois delegates to his tally; in the campaign, both Huckabee and Palin seemed to prematurely concede IL to invest elsewhere. 
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TVGUhAPls9I/AAAAAAAACH0/EEBY_Ll6S54/s1600/ilgop.png)
Romney-58%
Palin-22%
Huckabee-20%

In 2008, Mike Huckabee won Tennessee and he has done so again this year. Huckabee had the endorsement of the very popular Governor, Bill Haslam. Palin has the endorsement of 2 TN Representatives, Marsha Blackburn and Scott DesJarlias. While Blackburn's district is located in Huckabee territory, Palin was able to perform surprisingly well in DesJarlias' district. Romney was limited to Nashville.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TVGWpb2vOuI/AAAAAAAACIM/-eRMLy0p9Wc/s1600/tngop.png)
Huckabee-50%
Palin-38%
Romney-12%

At the West Virginia Convention, Palin, with the help of Senate Candidate John Raese, will be winning a fairly close contest.
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TVGWpFI5l9I/AAAAAAAACIE/VgKzXu0VO2U/s1600/wvgop.png)
Palin-44%
Huckabee-41%
Romney-15%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on February 08, 2011, 02:35:40 pm
Palin's absolutely crap performance on Super Tuesday brightens my fictional day. :D


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 08, 2011, 02:40:10 pm
Palin's absolutely crap performance on Super Tuesday brightens my fictional day. :D

Its not over yet...:)

We still have about 6 states to go!


With 6 states left to go on Super Tuesday, Palin has fallen to third place.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TVGq6Gjt0iI/AAAAAAAACIc/dr5R9FoduhI/s1600/GOPDELG.png)

(Dark gray states are Super Tuesday states that have not reported yet)

Romney-422
Huckabee-402
Palin-345



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on February 08, 2011, 04:41:14 pm
Palin is on track to get 80 delegates for the rest of Super Tuesday at most, from what I can see. Romney has the northeast effectively locked and won, and I don't see Palin winning California any time soon.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 09, 2011, 10:29:03 am
Go Palin haha


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 09, 2011, 09:49:20 pm
14 FEBRUARY 2012

SUPER TUESDAY PART III



We begin with a surprise.Throughout this campaign, the Romney team has taken the state of New York for granted. Tonight it seems like an energized Upstate conservative base has helped Palin in New York; also lower turnout in the states urban centers has worked against Romney. We can conclude that New York's 90 delegates will be going to Palin.
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ol7EwCyZ8tQ/TVNPyTJM_7I/AAAAAAAACJU/0zIy1b3gKXs/s1600/NY.png)

Palin-43%
Romney-33%
Huckabee-23%

One state down in New Jersey, Palin seems to have done well as well; she has benefited from vote-splitting between the 2 more establishment Republicans. Governor Chrsitie was an early supporter of Palin. She will pull out a narrowly win here.
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-nxHGJXM6nfQ/TVNKjYDXLdI/AAAAAAAACIs/2x0AALTv0Qo/s1600/nj.png)

Palin-37%
Romney-33%
Huckabee-29%

Moving westward, Romney will be winning the trio of North Dakota, Montana and California. The very popular ND Senator John Hoeven endorsed Romney while in Montana Gubernatorial candidate and former Congressman Denny Rehberg went for Palin but failed to deliver for her.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Kh-_4PIp6sw/TVNLrvaIfDI/AAAAAAAACI8/idid2-CXyqU/s1600/ND.png)

Romney-49%
Huckabee-29%
Palin-22%

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1_Qkq5B4mEc/TVNLrp-NNOI/AAAAAAAACJE/1QI4u4WRKeg/s1600/MT.png)

Romney-40%
Palin-31%
Huckabee-28%

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-S1R9qT-JQ_o/TVNLra_lDZI/AAAAAAAACI0/NZeY_UiEAG8/s1600/ca.png)

Romney-48%
Palin-36%
Huckabee-16%

Finally, what could be our most interesting result. Palin has won Alaska...barely. Projections have Romney within less than 1000 votes of Palin. Its seems that the 'home state effect' has saved her.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ok3HSkF7mes/TVNNb_d2uPI/AAAAAAAACJM/eXay-BSUuz8/s1600/ak.png)
Palin-36.5%
Romney-36.4%
Huckabee-27%



(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Gk4lZ002jrQ/TVNQyeffcsI/AAAAAAAACJc/pRPoNvFjGPQ/s1600/gopdel.png)

Romney-645
Palin-511
Huckabee-402


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Mehmentum on February 09, 2011, 09:58:15 pm
This is looking like the 2008 Democratic primary except with 3 people, although Romney seems to have the advantage, particularly with Palin and Huckabee splitting votes.

Good job!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 10, 2011, 06:06:18 pm
Looking at the next set of primaries...

KS Caucus
Palin-37%
Huckabee- 32%
Romney-20%

DC
Romney-56%
Palin-14%
Huckabee-11%

MD
Romney-51%
Palin-25%
Huckabee-16%

VA
Huckabee-35%
Palin-32%
Romney-18%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on February 10, 2011, 06:58:10 pm
This primary is awesome. Pretty much anyone can win. :D


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 10, 2011, 07:30:39 pm
This primary is awesome. Pretty much anyone can win. :D

Thats what I don't like about our primary system today. They're engineered so that a winner will be chosen as fast as possible. I'm trying to make it competitive!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: America™ on February 10, 2011, 09:37:09 pm
This is great! Keep up the good work!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Progressive on February 12, 2011, 06:42:47 pm
Beautifully done. Update often!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on February 12, 2011, 08:03:13 pm
Go Palin!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 12, 2011, 11:16:45 pm
19 FEBRUARY 2012

This Saturday night has not been kind to Mike Huckabee. Although Huck was leading in the Virginia primary polls, Sarah Palin will be pulling an upset tonight. Palin had the help of Gov. Bob McDonnell, a popular figure with conservatives.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bHG4N4Z4iQY/TVdZzFXEKFI/AAAAAAAACJk/kQUJo5xDPt8/s1600/mcpln.png)

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Aj59HD_mu38/TVdZzgXzWKI/AAAAAAAACJs/H-R7Y3sZRTk/s1600/VA.png)

Palin-45.1%
Huckabee-42.5%
Romney-11.7%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on February 12, 2011, 11:49:14 pm
Wouldn't Romney have performed better in northern Virginia?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 12, 2011, 11:54:58 pm
Wouldn't Romney have performed better in northern Virginia?

Huckabee and McCain crushed him there in 2008.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on February 13, 2011, 12:07:08 am
Wouldn't Romney have performed better in northern Virginia?

Huckabee and McCain crushed him there in 2008.
McCain and Huckabee also crushed Romney in Ohio. Why? Because Romney had already dropped out of the race.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 13, 2011, 12:12:46 am
Wouldn't Romney have performed better in northern Virginia?

Huckabee and McCain crushed him there in 2008.
McCain and Huckabee also crushed Romney in Ohio. Why? Because Romney had already dropped out of the race.

Oh, really?

Can someone help me with an explanation here??!! lol


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on February 13, 2011, 12:26:59 am
Wouldn't Romney have performed better in northern Virginia?

Huckabee and McCain crushed him there in 2008.
McCain and Huckabee also crushed Romney in Ohio. Why? Because Romney had already dropped out of the race.

Oh, really?

Can someone help me with an explanation here??!! lol
Mitt Romney dropped out on February 7th, 2 days after Super Tuesday. Virginia's primary wasn't until the 12th.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 13, 2011, 12:34:37 am
Wouldn't Romney have performed better in northern Virginia?

Huckabee and McCain crushed him there in 2008.
McCain and Huckabee also crushed Romney in Ohio. Why? Because Romney had already dropped out of the race.

Oh, really?

Can someone help me with an explanation here??!! lol
Mitt Romney dropped out on February 7th, 2 days after Super Tuesday. Virginia's primary wasn't until the 12th.

Well, in any case, Palin has won Virginia!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Mexino Vote on February 13, 2011, 12:42:37 am
What a great timeline. Go Palin!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 13, 2011, 10:15:02 am
great!!! what a detailed TL, I like it =)

but wouldn't huckabee have carried some rural counties in maryland?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 13, 2011, 12:56:51 pm
Guys,

This week is gonna be hell week for me; I have three exams and extra hours at my job. I probably won't be able to post this week. I'll try to post sometime mid-week, but I can't make any promises.

Thank you all for your constant enthusiasm and support; it means the world to me!

'Miles


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: HappyWarrior on February 13, 2011, 06:06:12 pm
great!!! what a detailed TL, I like it =)

but wouldn't huckabee have carried some rural counties in maryland?

Either Huckabee or Palin would certainly win Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore as well as St. Mary's and Calvert County.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Jackson on February 15, 2011, 07:04:51 am
It will certainly be interesting to see who the Romney delegates choose to back, in the chinese sense, at any rate.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 15, 2011, 12:01:55 pm
Updated Delegate Count

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0YnylV9dC2I/TV4OV84BF6I/AAAAAAAACKc/O3wGbSx5tTA/s1600/gopdel.png)

ROMNEY-699
PALIN-614
HUCKABEE-402


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 15, 2011, 01:11:57 pm
Texas might become Huckabee's last stand...

I think he0ll win texas, mississippi, north carolina, kentucky, nebraska, ohio, indiana and maybe pennsylvania. so, IMO, he's not dead, yet.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 21, 2011, 06:34:14 pm
21 FEBRUARY 2012

For the past weeks, Wisconsin was considered to be among the most competitive states in the GOP race. Tonight, it looks like Sarah Palin will be winning an expectedly narrow victory. Palin had help from Senator Ron Johnson and Governor Scott Walker, both figures are extremely popular with state conservatives.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-S5d9QL_cnSA/TWLm1JZIg0I/AAAAAAAACKs/JYYYh-sU8i0/s1600/WItrans..gif)

Palin-34.9%
Romney-33.0%
Huckabee-30.1%


In Washington, Romney will be cruising to an easy victory.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sVJFxNX0vak/TWL10Kn3xgI/AAAAAAAACK0/AQPYWKoaiWY/s1600/watransp.gif)

Romney-54%
Palin-31%
Huckabee-15%



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 22, 2011, 11:31:50 am
continue =)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 22, 2011, 12:13:20 pm
UPDATED DELEGATE TALLY

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6CaJieMWO48/TWPtrOroWOI/AAAAAAAACK8/V07Bgwm25Ug/s1600/gopddd.gif)

ROMNEY-743
PALIN-656
HUCKABEE-402


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on February 22, 2011, 12:31:40 pm
At this point, I really don't see Romney losing - or at the very least, I really don't see Palin winning.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 22, 2011, 04:31:52 pm
22 FEBRUARY 2012

As we approach the beginning of the last phase of the GOP primary, lets see how the three remaining Republicans poll against Obama nationally.

PPP and SurveyUSA:

While no Republican polls particuarly well against Obama, he is by no means guaranteed another term. Of course, polling will expectedly change once once a clear GOP President/Vice-President ticket emerges, but for now, here is where the candidates stand.

Map Key
>70%= Safe
>60%= Likely
>40%= Lean
>30%= Slight
Green= Tossup


Obama vs Romney

Our findings show that Obama leads Romney nationally by a 49-46 margin. Obama's job approval numbers are a timid 48/46, but Romney's favorables are only 43/40. Basically, if Romney were the nominee, we would see 7 states that would be pure tossups.
Romney is very competitive in the western states of CO and NV, as well as NH; Romney would force Democrats to spend money in these otherwise blue states. The Romney campaign has been investing heavily in OH, which accounts for his 49-45 lead there. In this scenario, Obama would have the edge in VA, NC and PA.

Obama-246
Romney-199

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;7&AZ=2;11;4&AR=2;6;6&CA=1;55;7&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;6&DE=1;3;7&DC=1;3;7&FL=3;29;4&GA=2;16;4&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;20;7&IN=2;11;4&IA=1;6;4&KS=2;6;7&KY=2;8;6&LA=2;8;7&MD=1;10;7&MA=1;11;6&MI=1;16;4&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;6&MO=3;10;4&MT=2;3;4&NV=3;6;4&NH=3;4;4&NJ=1;14;6&NM=1;5;6&NY=1;29;7&NC=3;15;4&ND=2;3;4&OH=2;18;3&OK=2;7;7&OR=1;7;7&PA=3;20;4&RI=1;4;7&SC=2;9;6&SD=2;3;4&TN=2;11;6&TX=2;38;6&UT=2;6;7&VT=1;3;7&VA=1;13;3&WA=1;12;6&WV=2;5;6&WI=1;10;3&WY=2;3;7&ME=1;2;4&ME1=1;1;4&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;4&NE3=2;1;6)

Obama vs Huckabee

While Huckabee would garner marginally less electoral votes than Romney and he would also push Obama closer to 270. Obama leads Huck nationally by a 48-44 margin.
Huckabee would make VA, NC and IA more competitive, as well as solidify MO into the GOP column. With Huckabee, the GOP looks like it would concede the western states NV, CO to Obama. Also, Huckabee has much less appeal in NH than Romney.

Obama-266
Huckabee-191

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;7&AZ=2;11;4&AR=2;6;7&CA=1;55;7&CO=1;9;4&CT=1;7;7&DE=1;3;7&DC=1;3;7&FL=3;29;4&GA=2;16;6&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;20;6&IN=2;11;3&IA=3;6;4&KS=2;6;7&KY=2;8;6&LA=2;8;7&MD=1;10;7&MA=1;11;7&MI=1;16;6&MN=1;10;6&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;10;4&MT=2;3;4&NV=1;6;4&NH=1;4;4&NJ=1;14;6&NM=1;5;7&NY=1;29;7&NC=3;15;4&ND=2;3;4&OH=3;18;4&OK=2;7;7&OR=1;7;7&PA=1;20;3&RI=1;4;7&SC=2;9;6&SD=2;3;4&TN=2;11;6&TX=2;38;6&UT=2;6;7&VT=1;3;7&VA=3;13;4&WA=1;12;7&WV=2;5;7&WI=1;10;4&WY=2;3;7&ME=1;2;4&ME1=1;1;4&ME2=1;1;4&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=2;1;4&NE3=2;1;6)

Obama vs Palin

If Palin were the Republican nominee, she would start out with a 13 point deficit, at 53-40. Obama would have a 3-to-1 electoral vote advantage. Palin posts a 34/58 favorability nationally and even more troubling for her is that independents break by a wide 64-26 margin in favor of Obama. Palin's numbers at home are even underwater; with 39/53 favorables, she can only lead Obama by a 47-44 margin.

Obama-388
Palin-125

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;3&AZ=1;11;4&AR=2;6;4&CA=1;55;7&CO=1;9;7&CT=1;7;7&DE=1;3;7&DC=1;3;7&FL=1;29;4&GA=3;16;4&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;20;7&IN=1;11;4&IA=1;6;6&KS=2;6;6&KY=2;8;4&LA=2;8;6&MD=1;10;7&MA=1;11;7&MI=1;16;7&MN=1;10;7&MS=2;6;4&MO=1;10;4&MT=1;3;3&NV=1;6;7&NH=1;4;6&NJ=1;14;7&NM=1;5;7&NY=1;29;7&NC=1;15;4&ND=1;3;4&OH=1;18;6&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;7&PA=1;20;6&RI=1;4;7&SC=3;9;4&SD=1;3;4&TN=2;11;4&TX=2;38;4&UT=2;6;7&VT=1;3;7&VA=1;13;6&WA=1;12;7&WV=2;5;4&WI=1;10;6&WY=2;3;6&ME=1;2;6&ME1=1;1;7&ME2=1;1;4&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;4&NE2=2;1;5&NE3=2;1;6)



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on February 22, 2011, 05:05:59 pm
As if we needed any more proof that Palin is a disgrace.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Barnes on February 22, 2011, 10:37:24 pm
Excellent so far, Miles! :)

As far as the election, I think the Huckster might just pull a comeback. That would certainly make for the most interesting match-up! ;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 23, 2011, 09:09:14 pm
I haven't posted any candidate announcements lately for the Congressional or Gubernatorial races in a while, so here we go:

Montana:
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Xp8s0hmDvE8/TWWp1Y8-04I/AAAAAAAACLE/VjOzoAvoc-A/s1600/mttl.png)

Next year we will see somewhat of a reshuffling of positions here. While Jon Tester is still running for Senate, Congressman Denny Rehberg will be running for Governor. To replace Rehberg, current Governor Brian Schweitzer will be running for the House. All three men are popular in the state and are ell expected to win against token opposition. Tester will be running against businessman Steve Daine; Rehberg will be facing AG Steve Bullock; Shcweitzer will be running against businessman Neil Livingstone.

Senate:
Tester-49%
Daines-38%

Governor:
Rehberg-55%
Bullock-37%

House
Schweitzer-59%
Livingstone-35%

Arizona:
Senator Jon Kyl will be seeking a 4th term. Former AG and 2010 candidate Terry Goddard will be challenging him. Kyl is in good shape. Boring.

Kyl-53%
Goddard-41%


Tennessee:
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ta-lCe76XAk/TWWsJ2toG_I/AAAAAAAACLM/7xXEWZ7gN_Q/s1600/tntl.png)

One of the most endangered Senators this cycle will be Bob Corker. Corker's main challenge will not necessarily be in the general election, but from within his own party's ranks. He has amassed a wide field of challengers who claim that they are more conservative than he is. His three main opponents are former Congressman Zach Wamp, musician Hank Williams and YouTube personality Basil Marceaux. Polling suggests that Corker is, in fact, vulnerable in the primary.
Democrats, seeing the writing on the wall, have recruited former Congressman Bart Gordon. While former Governor Phil Bredesen declined to run, Gordon should be a strong candidate in the event that Corker loses his primary; Gordon trails Corker, he is competitive with Wamp and leads Marceaux and Williams.

GOP Primary:
Corker-37%
Wamp-28%
Williams-15%
Marceaux-12%

Michigan:
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-lfxD0KYlZZo/TWWvYCtiKMI/AAAAAAAACLU/x2y1XMzG_SM/s1600/mitl.png)

Since the 2010 elections, Michigan's economy has improved moderately; this is partially due to a better-than-expected performance from the Big Three automakers and the increased quality and demand for American cars.It seems that the 2009 auto bailout is yielding metaphorical fruit here. Thus, the 2012 Michigan electorate will be less hostile to incumbents than the 2010 electorate.
Unemployment here has decreased from 12% to 9.2%. Thus, Republicans have less ammunition to use against incumbent Debbie Stabenow. Her foremost opponent will be Congressman Pete Hoeskstra; while Stabenow looked vulnerable in earlier years, her numbers have seen a rebound.

Stabenow-46%
Hoesktra- 40%

Delaware:
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1oQt50eGUFA/TWW4XgSVmqI/AAAAAAAACLc/hFElWM-9paU/s1600/detl.png)

In Delaware, super-popular Governor Jack Markell will eschew a second term in the statehouse; rather, he will be running for Tom Carper's open Senate seat. Markell will be running against...you guessed it!...Christine O'Donnell! AG Beau Biden will be seeking a promotion to Governor; no Republicans have yet announced that they will be challenging Biden. In any case, Markell and Biden are assured victory.

Senate:
Markell-61%
O'Donnell-31%

Governor:
Biden-63%
Generic R- 28%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on February 23, 2011, 09:13:00 pm
Go Hoekstra!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on February 23, 2011, 09:23:14 pm
Go Hoekstra!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on February 23, 2011, 10:02:28 pm
Oh, man, I'm loving the candidates so far. This is going to be interesting, I can tell. :D


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 23, 2011, 11:56:49 pm
Candidate announcements/Congressional races continued....


West Virginia
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NPhoNnSvJiA/TWXSTKZv39I/AAAAAAAACL0/yj1g1PfU0t8/s1600/wvtl.png)

West Virginia is looking to be one of the most interesting states this election cycle. This state will have a Senate race, a Gubernatorial race and two competitive House contests.
First, tea party favorite and Palin-backed 2010 candidate John Raese has struggled to gain traction against Senator Joe Manchin in a rematch. This is Raese's 4th Senate run and voters just aren't terribly enthused about his candidacy. Manchin has retained much of his popularity as he has moved from the WV statehouse to Washington D.C. Manchin maintains a wide lead.
Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito is the favorite to become Governor in 2012. Governor Tomblin will not be seeking a second term. Capito has no clear opponent yet.
Former Senator Carte Goodwin will be running to replace Capito in the 2nd district. Goodwin will be facing perennial candidate Jay Wolfe. Manchin and Rockefeller are expected to be stumping for Goodwin.
In the first district, Rep. McKinley will be facing a competitive rematch with State Legislator Mike Oliverio. McKinley won by less than 1400 votes in 2010.
Congressman Nick Rahall is expected to cruise to victory in the 3rd district.

Senate:
Manchin-55%
Raese-34%

Governor:
Capito-58%
Generic D- 38%

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-s3z04lhP8w8/TWXSrfRE-OI/AAAAAAAACL8/aCMnKHyjWHw/s1600/wvcd.gif)

Wyoming:
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3qx08rmpEaQ/TWXUwzBJd0I/AAAAAAAACME/KfZHkTsljmU/s1600/wytl.png)

Despite the overwhelming GOP tilt of Wyoming, the state is set to have a competitive House race. Former Governor Dave Freudenthal will be challenging Rep. Cynthia Lummis. Freudenthal, while a Democrat, has an established reputation as a political moderate and a problem-solver; he remains extremely popular. Lummis has been accused by some to be out of touch with her constituents and she he been criticized for her infrequent visits to Wyoming.  

Colorado:
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-r4S98OkH9aU/TWXWqIEausI/AAAAAAAACMM/ApN8BT-skxM/s1600/cotl.png)
Here we will have an interesting House race as well. In the redistricted 4th district, Betsy Markey will be seeking a return to Washington D.C. In the redistricting session, the legislature made CO-05 a solidly GOP district while, in the process, making CO-04 into a true swing district. Markey will be running against 2010 Senate candidate Ken Buck.
During her term in Congress, Markey cast politically tough votes, such as votes in favor of healthcare reform and the stimulus package, that ultimately led to her defeat. Now, Democrats are hoping that the gaffe-prone Buck will be an easy opponent for Markey.
The 4th district is still based in northern-CO and now includes a greater portion of the Boulder-area.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4vSFHCsn3w4/TWXYgLq0sCI/AAAAAAAACMk/YiTVjftD4PM/s1600/markyy.gif)

Arkansas
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2BFA6VxWlOU/TWXcUxAqRJI/AAAAAAAACM8/NqRNGf__nts/s1600/artl.png)
Thanks to a redistricting by the Democratic legislature, Republican Tom Griffin is now vulnerable in the 2nd district. Griffin will be facing former Lt. Governor Bill Halter. The AR-02 now has an EVEN projected PVI , down from its previous R+5. Halter, while a progressive, is very popular on the personal level and is considered to be an excellent campaigner and fundraiser.
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oP7nDrqs2_Y/TWXcKwBcCzI/AAAAAAAACM0/m5aho0uCqCA/s1600/halterr.gif)

Minnesota:
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-MBnGDa4RD6Y/TWXjalcxZyI/AAAAAAAACNM/5z5GvERcE70/s1600/klob.png)
Here, we have both a Senate race and a closely watched House race. Senator Amy Klobuachar is in solid shape with approvals approaching 60%. Her opponent will be Teresa Collett, who unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Betty McCollum in 2010. Democrats have little to worry about here.
Klobuchar-60%
Collett-32%

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kyiF3z4kzmw/TWXjqBmRq4I/AAAAAAAACNU/7Y72F4bP5Ag/s1600/mitl.png)
On the House side, the race for the 8th Congressional district will be one of particular emotional and symbolic value for the DFL. Bill Richard, who served as Chief of Staff for the former Congressman Jim Oberstar, will be running to avenge his fallen boss. Rep. Chip Cravaack was able to pull a narrow upset here in 2010, mostly due to low turnout; this year, the DFL is making voter turnout, especially in St. Louis County, its top priority. Since the new district is relatively similar to the old one, the overall dynamics and demographics of the 8th district still lean Democratic.
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bWr7Kqm02mA/TWXk2o7QCuI/AAAAAAAACNk/69g__S_8CrY/s1600/dfl8.gif)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on February 24, 2011, 01:21:15 am
I can't properly express how happy that House race makes me.

>:D


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 24, 2011, 01:33:03 am
I can't properly express how happy that House race makes me.

>:D

That was for you, my friend! :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on February 24, 2011, 01:37:34 am
I can't properly express how happy that House race makes me.

>:D

That was for you, my friend! :)

It's a marvelous present. ;D


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: HappyWarrior on February 24, 2011, 08:50:54 am
Any update for MD-01? ;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Barnes on February 24, 2011, 10:06:46 am
Could we get some info on some GA Congressional races? :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 24, 2011, 11:33:03 am
Best TL ever =)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 24, 2011, 03:25:24 pm
A few more race updates...

Maryland:
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-lQb7ZbcEiSo/TWawJcK4TvI/AAAAAAAACNs/THklwjeV0o0/s1600/mdtl.png)
The Senate race in Maryland will feature to candidates with high statewide profiles. Sen. Ben Cardin, while not as popular as his colleague Barb Mikulski, is still very well liked. He will be challenged by former Governor Bob Erhlich. Erhlich, although at this point he has become the Dino Rossi of MD, was the GOP's best possible recruit here. Still, Cardin is still looking to be one of the safer Senators up this cycle.

Cardin-52%
Ehrlich-36%

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Cq11N3jVz3k/TWawJkNxewI/AAAAAAAACN0/PP0lkjytgUw/s1600/kratovil_harris_0924.jpg)
In terms of redistricting, while Democrats have essentially been locked out of states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania, Democrats have tried to milk as many districts as possible out of the relatively few states that they still control. One example of this is MD-01. In Maryland, Democrats have a trifecta, as they have large majorities in both state chambers and hold the statehouse; they have taken full advantage of this. Traditionally, MD-01 has been a conservative district by state standards, however, when it comes to redistricting in MD, seemingly minor changes in district boundaries can profoundly change the nature of a district. Such is the case with MD-01; it has now extended further inward into some heavily Democratic portions of the state. Its PVI has gone down from R+13 to a amazing R+1.
Former Congressman Frank Kratovil, a casualty of the 2010 wave. is seeking a rematch against Rep. Andy Harris. Democrats are wasting no time in linking Harris, an unapologetic conservative and tea party supporter, to such figures as Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann. Kratovil, on the other hand, is a centrist Democrats and some liberals are hesitant to support him.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5DRS5bFJO2k/TWawW5ewUyI/AAAAAAAACN8/aqTPNVnOKZ4/s1600/mdtll.gif)

Georgia:
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JpHuPNUe0cs/TWa-DcJXP1I/AAAAAAAACOM/j3IBeO1Im2g/s1600/gatl.png)
With a political trifecta here, Republicans have carved up an expectedly GOP-friendly map. GA gained one seat during the census. The legislature's plan has protected all incumbent Republican incumbent and created a new GOP-leaning swing district. The biggest beneficiary of redistricting, besides the GOP,  was Rep. John Barrow; the legislature conceded GA-12 to the Democrats as they tried to sure-up their own incumbents. Barrow now has a D+6 district, up from D+1.

The new district, GA-14, would encompass Athens; it would also take in rural areas of central-GA while extending into some Democratic areas near Atlanta. Democrats are trying to convince former Athens mayor Heidi Davison to run for Congress; Davison left office with a 60% approval rating and is very popular in the Athens area. Republicans have a candidate in State Senator Johnny Grant. If Davison were to run, this would be one of the closest races in the country.
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4vuYr987RBk/TWa-DeytNpI/AAAAAAAACOE/58b5Rl3Ro1I/s1600/gatll.gif)
One other district to watch will be GA-02, where Rep. Sanford Bishop will be facing a rematch against State Rep. Mike Keown. Bishop won narrowly won in 2010, but his district has since gotten marginally more conservative. Bishop's fate will likely rely on Obama's ability to turn out Democratic votes here.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 24, 2011, 07:43:33 pm
24 FEBRUARY 2012

BREAKING: HUCKABEE DROPS OUT


HUCK EXITS RACE, CONCEDES GOP NOMINATION
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mIkkP7Nx5Fs/TWb5wRIou-I/AAAAAAAACOc/Ild0bDwmJlY/s1600/huckk.jpg)

"...my friends and fellow Republicans, after careful consideration and discussion with my family, I have decided to leave the race for the Republican nomination. I simply have concluded that, although I have no shortage of enthusiastic supporters, that the electoral map will probably not turn out in my favor.
That said, I am still looking forward to a Republican victory in 2012. As of now, I will be endorsing Governor Palin or Governor Romney. Rather, come November, I will be throwing my support behind whomever my party nominates. I will also be campaigning for the Republican nominee this fall; both Mitt and Sarah would be better as President than Obama!
This is by no means the end of my public service. I will be working with my PAC, Huck PAC, to help elect conservative candidates for legislative and statewide offices this year.
The good Lord has blessed my life in such a way that I will never be able to fully express. This opportunity to seek the highest office in the world was just his latest blessing. As I leave the ring, I'd like to thank the people of Arkansas, who were the first to trust me; I am enormously grateful to them. I would like to thank the voters in the states that I won, as well as all those Republicans who supported me, regardless of state lines.
Thank you and God bless America!"


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on February 24, 2011, 07:44:57 pm
Oh, crap. x_x


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Mehmentum on February 26, 2011, 05:58:08 pm
Oh, crap. x_x
Yeah.

I think Palin's odds of winning have just gone up.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 26, 2011, 10:02:33 pm
A few more Senate updates...

Hawaii:
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-J6P9NO9-P2U/TWmt6srndxI/AAAAAAAACOk/dilqrqr-zpU/s1600/hitl.png)

In Hawaii, the main contest looks like it will be in the Democratic primary rather than the general election. Former Congressman Ed Case will once again be attempting to primary Senator Dan Akaka. Case will be running to the right of Akaka, as he did in 2006. Akaka has the support of the state Democratic Party as well as Sen. Dan Inouye and HI native President Obama. Case came within 8 points of ousting Akaka in by 2006 by implying that the sitting Senator was too old and the HI needed a new generation in the Senate. This year Akaka will be 88 years old; still Sen. Inouyem, who is the same age, was reelected with 75% of the vote in 2010, suggesting that Hawaiians might not care much about age. Also, this would be Case'd third attempt at a seat in Congress in 6 years; he may be viewed as 'damaged goods.'

Washington:
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-9QyQR8_xX9U/TWmxnxJ1DJI/AAAAAAAACOs/lv-ycRaM1Do/s1600/watl.png)

Senator Maria Cantwell will be getting a marginally more threating opponent in  Snohomish County Councilman John Koster. Koster is the second major Republican to challenge Cantwell, after tea party-endorsed Clint Didier. (Surprisingly, Dino Rossi has ruled out running!). Neither Republican comes close to Cantwell in the polls, although Republicans see Koster as more electable than the extreme Didier; Koster has managed to hold Cantwell under 50% in cumulative polls. In any case, most of the GOP's efforts here will be in the Gubernatorial race, where AG Rob McKenna is running to deny Gov. Chris Gregoire a third term.

Cantwell-49%
Koster-38%

Cantwell-53%
Didier-33%

Missouri
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rj_FM0JJanY/TWm4rG-cdyI/AAAAAAAACO0/WInoko5U-Wg/s1600/motl.png)

As usual, the Show-Me state will have no shortage of high-profile races. Lt. Gov. Steve Kinder will be seeking a promotion by attempting to oust Governor Jay Nixon. Nixon still remains on popular ground, but MO has trended strongly towards the GOP since his election in 2008.
Republicans have long considered Sen. Claire McCaskill to be one of their prime targets. In McCaskill was a candidate who, without the overwhelming 2006 Democratic wave at her back, would have likely fallen short. The two Republicans vying to run against her are establishment Blaine Luetkemeyer and tea party Sarah Steelman. Luetkemeyer, a victim of redistricting, opted to run against McCaskill rather than battling Rep. Sam Graves in a GOP primary; he has the endorsement of Sen. Roy Blunt and his predecessor, Kit Bond. Steelman has been backed by Sen. Jim DeMint and the Tea Party Express. While Luetkemeyer has a 98% lifetime rating from the Amerrican Conservative Union, Steelman is maintaining that he is too moderate.

Nixon- 49%
Kinder- 39%

McCaskill- 48%
Luetkemeyer- 44%

McCaskill- 50%
Steelman- 40%

New Jersey
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xsdnZmPdypw/TWm8piwU0wI/AAAAAAAACO8/1TC3K_SauKg/s1600/njtl.png)

Despite the blue tilt of NJ, we will have 2 closely watched races here. Sen. Bob Menendez, who has never had particularly solid ratings, is being challenged by House freshman John Runyan. Runyan, due to his lack of seniority, had his district axed. Menendez maintains a lead in the polls, Runyan has not developed much name recognition.
The more interesting here will be the Special Election. Appointed Senator Frank LoBiondo will be campaigning to represent NJ for two more years in the Senate. On the Democratic side, former Gov. John Corzine will be seeking a return to the Senate. Corzine is personally unpopular, but, as a Democrat, he will have up-ticket help from Obama. LoBiondo is in the opposite situation. While he is popular on the personal level, he is trying to keep his party affiliation at arm's length; since his appointment, he has been among the most liberal Republicans in the Senate, breaking with his party on fiscal and environmental issues. Some observers expected LoBiondo to get a primary challenger, but the tea party will be investing in other states, such as Utah, Tennessee and Nevada.

Menendez- 43%  
Runyan-36%         

LoBiondo-41%
Corzine-40%



If my tally serves me correctly, states were I haven't specifically announced candidates for Senate are : VT, ME, PA, WY, IN, MS, WY and CA. Most of those state are pretty safe anyway, but I'll try have those out by the end of this week.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on February 26, 2011, 10:18:55 pm
Go Palin! :D


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 27, 2011, 09:37:36 am
Go Palin! :D

for other reasons, obviously...


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on February 27, 2011, 09:49:44 am
I think Huckabee could've been one of the better nominees. With Romney, you risk alienating the Tea Party. With Palin you risk losing everything except the Tea Party. I think Romney would fare better but maybe get less turnout in the South. Maybe he could choose Huck as his running mate or something.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: bloombergforpresident on February 27, 2011, 11:08:34 am
What about MO redistricting???


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on February 27, 2011, 11:27:39 am
Maybe [Romney] could choose Huck as his running mate or something.
Those two hate eachother. Not happening, even in a TL.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on February 27, 2011, 12:04:46 pm
Maybe [Romney] could choose Huck as his running mate or something.
Those two hate eachother. Not happening, even in a TL.

Oops. Yeah, forgot about that.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on February 27, 2011, 02:20:56 pm
What about MO redistricting???

Here's the plan that I came up with, its based off on one of KS21's designs.

Correction from previous post: Luetkemeyer would actually live in Hartzler's district.

Otherwise, I tried to make the map favorable to incumbents.

Rather than expanding Russ Carnahan's district into more rural areas, I tried to vote-pack it in with some territory from Lacy Clay's. That makes Emerson and Aiken both very safe.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-T_eGRaEuVTY/TWqiGuXgwmI/AAAAAAAACPU/t8CD_b8I9io/s1600/mored.gif)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on March 01, 2011, 09:32:29 pm


California
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Q4lUNy6vqdA/TW2ojXwNawI/AAAAAAAACQE/K6dLoH5D4fI/s1600/catl.png)

The race to replace Dianne Feinstein is not looking like it will be competitive. The GOP, seeking pickups in other more friendly states, has all but conceded this race. The expected Democratic nominee will be San Francisco area District Attorney. She will be probably be running against tea partier Chuck DeVore, to whom the national RSCC has plEdged little funding.

Harris-52%
DeVore-32%

Wyoming and Vermont
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hSR7uUvC4sU/TW2ojoAqkcI/AAAAAAAACQM/n964siwu1cw/s1600/VTTL.png)
Every election cycle, one or two Senators is elected without major party oppostion. This year, the pair of Sanders of Vermont and Barasso of Wyoming will not have opponents. Wyoming Democrats will be focusing on former Gov. Freudenthal's House bid rather than challenging the popular Barrasso. Republicans determined that any funds sent to Vermont would be wasted.

Indiana
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KNRGEwbKusA/TW2rz1r_Y2I/AAAAAAAACQU/0fXSUHOKS00/s1600/intl.png)
Indiana will feature a competitive primary between incumbent Dick Lugar and conservative challenger Richard  Mourdock. On the Democratic side, no formidable candidates have emerged. Lugar's fate will depend upon his ability to string together a coalition of moderate Republicans, Independents and possibly conservative Democrats in an open primary.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on March 03, 2011, 02:37:49 pm
6 MARCH 2012

Tonight, we will have Republican voters from 5 more states weigh in on who their party's nominee should be.

We begin in the Northeastern states of Vermont and Rhode Island. In both of these states, regional son Mitt Romney has garnered nearly 70% of the vote.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/---V1KQktHjU/TW_q3BlEohI/AAAAAAAACQc/BYpYV0Wf07U/s1600/RITTL.gif)

Romney-67%
Palin-30%

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Rw0FjYgkqtM/TW_q3InNDBI/AAAAAAAACQk/hgeBQXmTOZ8/s1600/VTTLL.gif)

Romney-69%
Palin-28%

Moving southward to the state of Ohio, the candidates are locked in a race that, at the moment is too close to call. Counties in gray have less than 50% of precincts reporting. Palin seems to be clinging onto a .8% lead, but the seven counties that have not reported yet will likely decide the winner.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-W1Xh3e_pyYo/TW_q3SztsrI/AAAAAAAACQs/rtLUS2Jzfbk/s1600/OHTTL.gif)

Palin-48.9%
Romney-48.1%

Moving southward still, Palin scores big wins in Texas and Mississippi. In both those states, Huckabee had a solid support base; it seems that tonight the would-be Huck voters have moved heavily towards Palin.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-EKU-ougxuCE/TW_sYStsY5I/AAAAAAAACQ8/dkx2hiDXiIM/s1600/mstll.gif)

Palin-57%
Romney-40%

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xx6h8SaSmLw/TW_sYPaWQPI/AAAAAAAACQ0/zBc2yuAVMkM/s1600/TXTLL.gif)

Palin-61%
Romney-36%

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FnVZ2Rc7YEY/TW_ty11UpVI/AAAAAAAACRE/UOUd-hOxTOs/s1600/palinperry.jpg)

Palin celebrates with supporter Rick Perry


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on March 03, 2011, 02:44:02 pm
Damn it, Huckabee, you could have foiled her. >:(


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on March 03, 2011, 03:21:02 pm
Damn it, Huckabee, you could have foiled her. >:(


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on March 03, 2011, 04:39:37 pm
ROMNEY WINS OHIO....PALIN SURPASSES ROMNEY IN OVERALL TALLY BY ONE DELEGATE

With regards to Ohio, it looks like Romney will actually be taking the 83 delegates from that stata.

The 7 remaining counties have reported (they are darker than the rest). Of those, Romney has taken 5 to Palin's 2.

(http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/8164/47853126.gif) (http://img141.imageshack.us/my.php?image=47853126.gif)

Romney-49.0%
Palin-47.9%



(http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/8618/38426845.gif) (http://img141.imageshack.us/my.php?image=38426845.gif)

Palin-861
ROMNEY-860


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on March 03, 2011, 04:43:00 pm
For the record, when I was assigning delegate numbers to the individaul states, I had no idea that the numbers would turn out this way...

I was actually expecting Romney to be ahead at  this point. I didn't expect he'd be trailing...by one delegate!!!

This really does make this race a pure tossup, doesn't it!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on March 03, 2011, 05:54:42 pm
6 MARCH 2010

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9sKRe1aBYnM/TXAXDXbJArI/AAAAAAAACRM/4OPiNS3uqXQ/s1600/barbarabush.jpg)

Other than the Presidential Primary, the first Senate primary of the 2012 cycle took place today. in The main event was the four-way primary to replace Se. Kay Bailey Hucthison. The winner of this first ballot is the daughter of former President George W. Bush, Laura Bush. While tea partiers had hoped to replace KBH with a more conservative Republican, the Bush family spent an enormous amount to political capital here and the Bush brand is still strong with Texas Republicans. Barbara's parents and grandparents all made many campaign stops and stump speeches on behalf of her; Hutchison also endorsed Bush. Based on tonights results, Bush and state Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples will be forced into a runoff.

(http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/9408/83526308.gif) (http://img850.imageshack.us/my.php?image=83526308.gif)

Bush-45%
Staples-29%

Straus-14%
Conaway-11%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: SvenssonRS on March 03, 2011, 10:34:26 pm
If Romney can take the rest of the West, which shouldn't be hard in the slightest, along with Pennsylvania, I strongly suspect he'll win.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on March 04, 2011, 09:56:23 am
Romney supporters can now breath a sigh of relief as results from Guam, Puerto Rico and American Samoa have just come in. Romney will be sweeping all three of these, bringing an extra 32 deleagte sto his column. The total now stands at...

Romney-892
Palin-860


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on March 04, 2011, 06:52:27 pm
Go, PAlin!!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on March 04, 2011, 07:52:18 pm
Another Bush in politics! The name lives on, hopefully with better memories than the last time.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: America™ on March 04, 2011, 08:31:27 pm
This is an AMAZING TL. Please continue.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: HST1948 on March 06, 2011, 07:19:45 pm
This is an AMAZING TL. Please continue.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on March 08, 2011, 03:19:50 pm
This is an AMAZING TL. Please continue.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on March 08, 2011, 07:45:07 pm

TRAGEDY IN MINNESOTA

SENATOR AL FRANKEN SHOT******SENATOR AL FRANKEN SHOT

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OEKKX2A_m0A/TXbJUVtifEI/AAAAAAAACRU/jnoHv4QDwis/s1600/al_franken.jpg)

While attending a town hall meeting this weekend, Senator Al Franken has been shot and killed by a tea party protestor. The events unfolded as Franken was leaving an annual town hall in St. Cloud at about 6:00 P.M. Franken was subsequently rushed to the hospital, but the shots, landing in the senator’s torso region, proved to be fatal and Franken died within minutes. The suspect was promptly taken down after two shots were fired and he was subsequently detained. Franken was 60.

The suspect was identified as Mr. Jarett Lee Loughnerr. Loughnerr, a local tea party activist and organizer, has had his mental health questioned many times within the last week. In interviews, his friends and fellow tea partiers  have observed that he was acting “peculiar” and that he “was approaching the edge”, as they cited strange behavior such as staying up late at night and not answering phone calls. Both friends and relatives said that Loughner had frequent and random mood swings. At the present time, Loughner is incarcerated and awaits trial.

Al Franken was known as an ardent defender of progressive ideas in the Senate. Elected in the Democratic wave of 2008, he ousted incumbent Norm Coleman and vowed to legislate in the manner of his friend, the late Senator Paul Wellstone. Senator Franken will be best remembered for his legislation defending the rights of women, his work on behalf of students, and his efforts to expand healthcare to all Americans.

During this last round of town hall meetings, Franken was making his pitch to revisit the 2010 Healthcare Bill. Specifically, Franken, along with Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon, had introduced legislation in February to add a provision to create a government-funded public option. Many liberals were disappointed when a public option was not ultimately included in the final healthcare bill; some progressive shave been campaigning on amending the bill to include one. Of course, with a split Congress, this provision was unlikely to pass anyway, as it was more of a symbolic gesture. 

(http://s3.mediamatters.org/static/video/embed/factor-20090226-franken.jpg)

In the wake of Franken’s death, many are pointing to Fox News host Bill O’Reilly for motivating Loughnerr. O’Reilly and Franken had an ongoing feud. O’Reilly was one of the subjects of Franken’s many books attacking conservatives in the media. During the past month, O’Reilly had referred to Franken as a “pinhead” and a “morally detestable and vile human being.” Media Matters and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee are sponsoring a petition calling for O’Reilly to resign from Fox; they have already garnered over 10,000  signatures.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8XTJMTqBRSs/TXbLqd_X2-I/AAAAAAAACRc/QSMEkWImPEc/s1600/mcdayton.png)

In the wake of Senator Franken’s death, Governor Mark Dayton will appoint his successor.

“My friends and fellow Minnesotans, yesterday was a day of great darkness for our state. The all too early and tragic death of Senator Franken was unnecessary and justice will be administered in the proper fashion. I have called Al’s wife, Franni, and his family and offered my sincerest condolences and I have pledged to help them in any way possible during these difficult weeks. ...
…today, I will appoint Congresswoman Betty McCollum. Betty has been a workhorse for the people of her district and I believe that she will fill Senator Franken’s large shoes; she has a record of success in the House and I am proud to send her to Senate. Betty was a friend of Al and I trust that she will carry on his legacy in the Senate.
Working with the Secretary of State, I have scheduled a special election that will coincide with the regular 2012 Senate elections. As a result, this year, both Minnesota seats will be up for election.”




Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on March 08, 2011, 07:51:11 pm
I think the fact that your avatar is red might have had an affect on the latest post. :P Still, good timeline.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on March 08, 2011, 08:30:19 pm
I think the fact that your avatar is red might have had an affect on the latest post. :P Still, good timeline.

Why?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on March 08, 2011, 09:06:29 pm
I think the fact that your avatar is red might have had an affect on the latest post. :P Still, good timeline.

Why?

Democratic Senator killed by Tea Party crazy, Tea Party and Bill O'Reilly get blamed.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Mister Jellybean on March 08, 2011, 09:25:13 pm
Well, looks like the theofascists struck again, eh? I really wonder what a good final solution to this problem would look like...


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on March 09, 2011, 09:08:55 am
SAFE DEM SEAT, I hope =)
It should be mccollum vs. bachmann... the crazy teabagger running for a seat which's open because of a crazy teabagger haha...


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Mehmentum on March 10, 2011, 03:50:52 pm
I think the fact that your avatar is red might have had an affect on the latest post. :P Still, good timeline.

Why?

Democratic Senator killed by Tea Party crazy, Tea Party and Bill O'Reilly get blamed.
I agree, but because of my red avatar, I don't mind.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on March 10, 2011, 08:16:10 pm
Campaign updates/Candidates announcements


Maine
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pb4W62R92Ck/TXl3erwsrRI/AAAAAAAACSc/u19bvTGF2vM/s1600/me12.png)
After years of political speculation, Senator Olympia Snowe has decided to leave the Republican party, at least nominally. Snowe will be seeking a 4th term as an Independent candidate; however, she has maintained that if reelected, she would continue to caucus with the GOP. Snowe citied the GOP's ideological drift to the right as well has her moderate record during her press conference, though many saw her poor numbers with Republican primary voters as a key factor in her choice. Tea Party Governor Paul LePage said that he will stand by his endorsement of Snowe. The likely Democratic nominee will be former ME House Speaker Hannah Pingree. The Republicans will almost certainly nominate either Andrew Ian Dodge, a tea partier.

Snowe- Republican Primary Approval- 35/59

ME General Election
Snowe*- 52%
Pingree- 27%
Dodge- 15%

North Carolina
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aUP6fojvf8g/TXl3bSHRKCI/AAAAAAAACSM/Y-afeHPApBc/s1600/marshallkissell.png)

After being dealt a bad hand during the 2011 redistricting session, Rep. Larry Kissell has opted to run statewide rather than seek a third House term. Kissell's 8th district, along with Brad Miller in the 13th, were the main targets of the Republican Legislature. While the old NC-08 gave Obama a 5-point win, its new configuration would have gone for McCain by 12 points. Kissell will be running to succeed Secretary of State Elaine Marshall; Marshall will be stepping down after 18 years in office.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Tbeo4dtQAd8/TXl1YKecsrI/AAAAAAAACRs/ZgpXCm0RdMo/s1600/ncgerry.png)

Indiana
Blue Dog Joe Donnelly will be following Kissell's lead and run for statewide office rather than running a much redder district. Donnelly's current R+2 district would have a projected PVI of at least R+6 in its new form. He will be running to become the 1st Democratic Treasurer since 1978; that office is being vacated by Richard Mourdock as he seeks to unseat Sen. Dick Lugar.

Ohio
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FhKc4Wrwlmc/TXl2F59V45I/AAAAAAAACR0/si3VUmhFaM0/s1600/ohtll.png)
Much to the dismay of liberals, Sen. Sherrod Brown gets a more formidable challenger in Lt. Governor Mary Taylor. Brown leads Rep. Jean Schmidt, but Taylor would make this one of the closest races in the county. Taylor, a rising star in the party, is considered to be running ahead of the establishment Schmidt in the primary.
More troublesome for Brown is that he has garnered a primary challenge from the right. Former Rep. Steve Driehaus, who lost a close race in 2010, maintains that Brown is too liberal for Ohio. Dreihaus claims that he is more electable than Brown.
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LS-b2cL9f-M/TXl2Rb-ar1I/AAAAAAAACR8/Z09zUAMhMPI/s1600/ohpolls.png)

Utah
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sHP3axKq6VI/TXl2u68JygI/AAAAAAAACSE/O0Pc0scXcSc/s1600/matheson.png)
After a decade of trying to take out political survivor Jim Matheson, Utah Republicans  have conceded a Democratic district during redistricting. Matheson's new district, consisting mainly of Salt Lake City and Summit County, would actually be fairly left-leaning. Therein lies an intrinsic problem for Matheson; he is now extremely vulnerable to being tossed out in the primary. Matheson has a scare at the 2010 Convention;, he only got 55% against Brigham Young's  liberal great-great granddaughter, Claudia Wright. Wright is seeking a rematch.
Some have speculated that Matheson will enter the Senate race rather than run for the House; he would benefit from a Republican electorate split between Independent Orrin Hatch and the GOP nominee.



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on March 15, 2011, 06:29:13 pm
Sorry for the slow pace here. Its midterms week, so I'm having a busy time.

I'll try to have an update by the weekend.

Thanks,

Miles


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on March 19, 2011, 11:52:11 pm
Hey guys,

I still have one more exam hovering over my head (economics). The good news is that it will out of the way soon (Monday morning at 7:30 :( ); so I'll have an update soon after that.

Thanks


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on March 22, 2011, 03:05:07 pm
APRIL 5 2012

PALIN AND ROMNEY STILL TRADING PUNCHES WITH VICTORIES

It looks like the virtual stalemate between Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney, the two Republican presidential contenders left standing, will be extending until the next round of primaries. Tonight, we will bring you results from the Keystone state as well as the Bluegrass state. Both of these primaries have been moved up a few weeks from their 2008 dates for the 2012 cycle.

We begin in Pennsylvania. Here, Romney has carried the day. This state was obviously critical in the primary because is it often one of the most contested states in the general election. Republicans have strived for the last two years to really bring back their brand here. Despite the wide unpopularity of other Republican governors in the industrial Midwest, Governor Corbett has tried not to politically 'overreach' and has kept a relatively moderate profile.  As such, Corbett's endorsement went to Romney. Also, Senator Pat Toomey's has moved more towards the political center; he only won narrowly in 2010 despite his tea party backing. The latest evidence of Toomey's moderation is his endorsement of Romney.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pcXSsG6AO70/TYj7ZG_BdqI/AAAAAAAACTk/xEDlTYXN6b0/s1600/patl.png)

Romney-55.4%
Palin-44.0%

In Kentucky, the Palin campaign cruises to an easy win. Romney was never particularly popular in the south and Kentucky seems to be no exception. Senator Rand Paul was a strong supporter of Palin as well.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ncVDa7T2cUo/TYj7ZVcWx0I/AAAAAAAACTs/bt3fH9SeEcQ/s1600/kytl.png)

Palin-57.8%
Romney-41.7%


(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-14N_nrBbUtA/TYj_OM5CTaI/AAAAAAAACT0/p2a1ygdoAG8/s1600/goppdel.)

ROMNEY-963
PALIN-908


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on March 22, 2011, 05:06:40 pm
Go Palin, you're almost there!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on March 22, 2011, 07:40:54 pm
2012 Gubernatorial Polls

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-00bm-qRGkwc/TYk-Dgma_bI/AAAAAAAACT8/hSKf9Aw-x2o/s1600/govapril.png)

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-BZ6Fr-xCWXQ/TY_Sb4qDM9I/AAAAAAAACUU/hS89HO_yV-8/s1600/romnin.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on March 27, 2011, 07:06:41 pm
16 APRIL 2012

IT ALL COMES DOWN TO INDIANA

TOP PALIN ADVISOR: "IF PALIN LOSES INDIANA....SHE WILL DROP OUT"

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-QnVXm1KRsiQ/TY_PVfSJzZI/AAAAAAAACUM/yEEb1g6cSC4/s1600/romnin.png)

"With the April 24th Indiana primary dominating Republican politics, the Palin camp is rumored to be taking an all-or-nothing approach. Top Republican leaders have insisted that the longer Romney and Palin are fighting, the better off Obama will be in the fall. Increasingly, Republicans voters want to see a clear end to this primary season.
Enter Indiana. While traditionally a red state, Obama was able to prevail here in 2008. As such, this state will be pivotal not only in the general election, but also in the primary. Both Republicans have been pouring money into the local media markets.
The Palin campaign, trailing by a meager 55 delegates, is banking on the growing tea party base in the state. However, national Republicans are pressuring her to drop out if she does not win this primary. In essence, they are giving her 'one last shot.' Still, Palin, never one to abide the rank-and-file party organization, insists that she will make the ultimate decision of whether or not to stay in the race, not the "party bosses." However, two aides very close with the Palin campaign have said that if she does not win IN, she will in fact, concede.
Predictably, the national tea party is campaigning around the clock for Palin. Palin has made several campaign  stops with Indiana Senate hopeful Richard Mourdock, who hopes to topple the 'RINO' Richard Lugar in the Senate primary. Thankfully for Lugar, the Senate and Presidential primaries will not be held on the same day. Governor Daniels will make an endorsement on the 20th.

Talk radio personalities have also weighed in on the impact of this primary:

Mark Levin:
(http://www.mofopolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/mark_levin.jpg)
"I know we have a large audience in the Hooiser state. To all our brothers in that state, I urge you to choose liberty over soft tyranny. This Romney is a damn fool, an idiot! This fool ain't even close to a conservative! Heck, I'd almost even rather McCain. The healthcare law that Romney passed in Massachusetts was unforgivable; he's just another lib. Massachusetts is one of the great shining beacon's of statism. He's unprincipled! If we Republicans keep electing these sellouts with no principles, we'll never get America back on track! We have a great, brilliant, smart, constitutional conservative in Sarah Palin. By far, the superior candidate and the true Reaganite. After Palin wins, we're gonna dump that sellout Lugar too! Indiana will be the model for a conservative comeback in 2012!" The cost of defeat is too high

Rush Limbaugh:
(http://cdn.newstalk870.am/files/2011/01/RushLimbaugh2-250x200.jpg)
"I don't see what the appeal of Romney is. In terms of fundraising, passion and ground game, Palin seems to be the better choice. I'm sick of this mentality that some Republicans have: "Well, if I act more like a Democrat, maybe I'll have a better chance of winning!" Mitt Romney has that mentality! Why bother voting for Romney; Obama would be just as good! This isn't the standard we should hold ourself to! Sure, Palin has some weaknesses, but none of them undermine core conservative causes. Romney would just go along with Obamacare: "We don't have to repeal it, we just need to make it better! Lets make America more like Massachusetts!" No! Hell no!


Polling shows a pure tossup.

PPP
Romney: 47%
Palin:46%

Rasmussen (R)
Palin: 45%
Romney: 43%

SurveyUSA
Romney: 48%
Palin: 47%

Quinnipiac
Palin:48%
Romney:46%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Ron DeSanchez on March 27, 2011, 07:12:32 pm
Robert Byrd Revisionist-like the name. As a Libertarian, I hate him. Being from a West Virginia family, we loved him.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on March 27, 2011, 07:20:24 pm
Robert Byrd Revisionist-like the name. As a Libertarian, I hate him. Being from a West Virginia family, we loved him.

I love Robert Byrd; I have family from WV also.

My dad always says that West Virginia is a good place to be from!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on March 28, 2011, 12:38:39 am
17 APRIL 2012

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-s6DZvjGUvM8/TZAeUFmcOcI/AAAAAAAACUk/TASts27nc-A/s1600/huychbush.png)

We have news from the Lone Star state! In the GOP primary to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison, Barbara Bush has defeated TX Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples.
Bush, despite her socially moderate stances on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage, was able to defy the tea party by defeating Staples due to her family's political clout and her ability to attract independent voters.
Hutchison, who was a strong supporter of Bush, said that she was "overjoyed with this victory" and said that Bush represents a "new generation of Republican leadership."
In the fall, Bush will face off against 2006 Gubernatorial candidate Kinky Freidman; she is heavily favored to retain the seat for Republicans.
 
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fpvV4aS2IRg/TZAeTjCMmAI/AAAAAAAACUc/XVoUttmtA0o/s1600/bush%2Bstaples.png)





Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on March 28, 2011, 10:16:38 am
Romney and Lugar will both have me campaigning hard for them in Indiana, so they'll obviously win. ;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on March 28, 2011, 04:05:49 pm
hopefully, palin wins in IN


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Ron DeSanchez on March 28, 2011, 04:12:53 pm
Robert Byrd Revisionist-like the name. As a Libertarian, I hate him. Being from a West Virginia family, we loved him.

I love Robert Byrd; I have family from WV also.

My dad always says that West Virginia is a good place to be from!

I wish I was from there :( My whole family is from Braxton County.
Oh well-I will have to make do with Florida.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on March 28, 2011, 04:52:53 pm
Robert Byrd Revisionist-like the name. As a Libertarian, I hate him. Being from a West Virginia family, we loved him.

I love Robert Byrd; I have family from WV also.

My dad always says that West Virginia is a good place to be from!

I wish I was from there :( My whole family is from Braxton County.
Oh well-I will have to make do with Florida.

Nice; some of my dad's family still lives in a small town in Kanawha county, near Charleston. Its a beautiful state.

I love the politics of West Virginia too!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on March 28, 2011, 05:58:45 pm
Since I started in 2011, I didn't get to cover the 2010 Senate midterms. Here were the results:

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-PvOo0lZV0l8/TZESSeGttqI/AAAAAAAACUs/oAzm3_2i8CI/s1600/2010tl.png)

Just a few differences from the actual results:

AR- Blanche Lincoln survives a close race against State Legislator Gilbert Baker. John Boozman decides to stay in the House and is named the House Republican Conference Chair. Both the Democratic and GOP primaries are bloody. Lincoln manages to fend off Lt. Gov. Bill Halter by a 53-47 margin; Baker defeats legislator Jim Holt in a bitter 51-49 runoff. Baker is an extremely gaffe-prone candidate; a recording was released of him calling Lincoln a "bitch" and questions arose about his allegedly corrupt ties to a lobbyist during his time in the AR legislature. Still, Lincoln won by a thin 47-45. Third party candidates got nearly 8% of the vote in this race.

CT - Despite the financial scandals surrounding him, Senator Chris Dodd decides to seek reelection. Dodd narrowly escapes a primary challenge from 2006 candidate Ned Lamont. In the general election, Dodd faced Governor Jodi Rell. Rell won 53-44.

FL: This became more of a two-way tossuup between Crist and Rubio. Rubio wins with 39% to Crist's 37% and Meek's 22%.


And the Gubernatorial races...

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8-p2qjFLXG4/TaJDPOm0QmI/AAAAAAAACXc/DO7wu6mBPqo/s1600/gov2010.png)

Pretty much the same except for:

OH- Ted Strickland's superior ground game pays off. He is able to hold onto his job by 618 votes out of roughly 3.9 million votes cast.

MN- Due to extremely low levels of DFL turnout, Mark Dayton losses to Tom Emmer by about 5,000 votes.



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 07, 2011, 01:00:52 pm
BUMP!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on April 10, 2011, 02:28:17 am
24 APRIL 2012

THE DECIDING NIGHT

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TnDeJ5XXlDk/TZ1Fthb7xtI/AAAAAAAACVs/fTtikSY0cG0/s1600/gopind.png)

After a long and expansive Republican primary, the unofficial consensus among party officials is that the winner of Indiana will go on win the party nomination. Both candidates acknowledged that anymore prolonged infighting will likely hurt the party's chances of taking the White House. Both candidates have done extensive campaigning here and have increased their clout with Indiana voters, a critical swing electorate in the general election. The tea party has funneled millions for Palin while most of the state Republican party has lined up behind Romney. The results from this round of voting will also serve as somewhat a preview for the competitive Senate primary between Sen. Lugar and challenger Richard Mourdock.


With 80% of precincts reporting, Romney has maintained a consistent lead of about 5 points, which seems to be holding up. The AP has called the election for him.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iEtvLtTKuK4/TZ1A081ClfI/AAAAAAAACVc/10M-OtzNs9o/s1600/indtl.png)

ROMNEY- 51.8%
PALIN- 46.6%
 


(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JHdkd0_tyo4/TZ1RSqlfzKI/AAAAAAAACWM/FMH3p0P3JKU/s1600/mittromney-speech.jpg)
My friends, the results are in, and we have been declared the winner! I really could not have done this without your support! Thank you Indiana Republicans!! Because of your votes, and the countless hours my dedicate volunteers have worked, not only here in Indiana, but all across America, our campaign has the necessary momentum that will propel us to victory in November.
I want to extend my sincerest admiration and gratitude to Governor Palin. I just got off the phone with her. She was gracious her concession and I look forward to working with her in the fall for a Republican victory. More importantly, Governor Palin's presence in this race offered Republicans a choice and gave them the opportunity to test us on the issues that matter most to Americans. I enjoyed her spirited competition, and also that Speaker Gingrich and Governor Huckabee during the earlier stages of the primary. Again, Governor Palin is a great asset to the Republican movement and she has my deepest respect and esteem.
Moving forward, our focus will be the focus of the American people; the need for jobs, economic prosperity and the need to control a Washington DC that sees almost no limit to its reaches. My approach will be crafted to emphasize both short and long-term sustainability and prosperity. Put simply, a return to time-tested Republican polices will result in a stronger America. I know that my experience both in private and public sectors will be a welcome change in the White House. My friends, President Obama and I have substantial differences, differences that will only become more apparent in these coming months. I look forward to the aggressive campaigning, ardent travelling and energetic debating that these next months will entail.
Thank you Indiana!! Lets enjoy tonight! The second part of our road to the White House will begin tomorrow!



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 10, 2011, 10:07:00 am
so, lugar will also win his primary?!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 10, 2011, 12:14:40 pm
I think you're just throwing me a bone by giving Romney 60% in my county. :P  Pretty reasonable map, actually. I think Romney could win Clay County, but probably not by that much, and Owen County would probably vote for Palin, as it is very rural. Would expect Romney to mainly be strong up around Chicago and in Marion County and surrounding suburbs.

Good job! Great to see Romney win. :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on April 10, 2011, 12:15:56 pm
No! No no no no no!
I just hope Mourdock wins his primary...


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on April 10, 2011, 12:25:20 pm
I think you're just throwing me a bone by giving Romney 60% in my county. :P 

;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on April 10, 2011, 02:43:49 pm
REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES UP IN THE AIR

With less than a month to go until two of the most competitive primaries in the county, the tea party is looking to capture Senate seats in Indiana and Nevada.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pV7Qoi_HA2c/TaH4-j2qluI/AAAAAAAACW8/1JePklNAftE/s1600/inpri1.png)

In Indiana, Senator Dick Lugar is trying to fend off a tea-filled challenge from Treasurer Richard Mourdock in the May 1 primary. The tea party is emphasizing Lugar's more liberal stances on immigration, his support for both of Obama's Judicial nominees and his moderate social record. Mourdock is also trying to label Lugar as out-of-touch with his constituents and has run as a much more conservative alternative.
While Lugar had an initial lead in the polls, he fell behind. However, since then, Lugar has run a better campaign than Moudock and seems to have the momentum.
Lugar's fate will largely be determined by his ability to turn out Independents in the open primary. Among only registered Republicans, Mourdock has a 47-44 lead; however, Independents break towards Lugar by a 59-36 margin.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-J0rT7rdLHZM/TaH4-nxennI/AAAAAAAACW0/HR3HeU_vgJU/s1600/inpri.png)

In the general election, either Republican would be favored to win against 2008 Gubernatorial candidate Jill Long Thompson. Lugar would lead Thompson by 28 points while Mourdock would post a less impressive 10 point lead.

General election

Lugar- 61%
Thompson- 33%

Mourdock- 49%
Tompson- 39%


(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cL2muhZel4w/TaH4-zu-lUI/AAAAAAAACXM/iR06VbivP0w/s1600/nvpri1.png)

The May 15 Nevada primary has become a a free-for-all. Initially Dean Heller was considered the favorite to topple the scandal-plagued incumbent John Ensign; thankfully, for Ensign, the entrance of tea party challenger Sharron Angle changed the dynamic of this race. Both Ensign and Angle, rather than attacking each other, are both investing heavily in negative Heller attack ads. Ensign has consistently hovered around 32% while Heller has fallen from the high-40's to the mid-30's; Angle's level of support has risen dramatically to almost 30%.
In the general election, both Ensign and Angle would trail Democrat Dina Titus while Heller would still lead her, albeit by a reduced margin.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GykUUgrz_Jo/TaH4--ja8lI/AAAAAAAACXE/dyc1997f0Iw/s1600/nvpri.png)


General election (with trend lines)

Titus- 45% (43)
Ensign- 36%  (40)

Titus- 40%  (37)
Heller- 46% (45)

Titus- 46% (46)
Angle- 35%  (37)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 11, 2011, 10:26:30 am
GO Angle!!

democrats for angle! liberals for angle!! haha


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on April 13, 2011, 01:05:09 pm
I'm having a real rough week guys. I wanted to update the TL this week so here we go (this is kinda the bare minimum):

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-teiw8hSU3R0/TaXlVHk63fI/AAAAAAAACYE/VVuMgfaW3yY/s1600/colemanmcllm.png)

In the Minnesota special election, former Senator Norm Coleman will be trying to reclaim his old seat. The interim Senator, Betty McCollum was appointed after the assassination of Senator Al Franken, who beat Coleman in 2008 by less than 400 votes. McCollum has said that she will be running to fill in out the remaining 2 years of Franken's term. While Coleman was a top-tier Republican recruit, he is still expect to have an uphill battle; he will have both Obama and Klobuchar above him on the ticket.

MN Senate polls:

Klobuchar- 60%
Collett- 31%

McCollum- 48%
Coleman- 41%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on April 13, 2011, 05:58:27 pm
Go Mourdock!!!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 13, 2011, 09:54:17 pm
Go Lugar! Hopefully Indiana Republicans will value integrity and character in this timeline and grant Lugar another term.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on April 17, 2011, 02:13:46 am
1 MAY 2012

A MIXED NIGHT FOR THE TEA PARTY

Tonight, the first night of major non-Presidential primaries, we have results from two-highly contested and closely watched races; Indiana and North Carolina.

We begin in Indiana. Tonight, Senator Dick Lugar is fighting for his political life. With only 64% of precincts reporting, Lugar is clinging to less than a 2% lead. Despite polling suggesting Lugar in extremely perilous straits as he trailed Mourdock, he was able to mount a comeback within the last few days leading up to the primary.

64% of precincts reporting...

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xNasXH4WHaM/TaqKnhdTUMI/AAAAAAAACYM/1EbqxAcv-JI/s1600/indtl.png)
Gray counties have less than 50% reporting

Lugar-49.7%
Mourdock- 48.4%

Looking at the Indiana exit polls we can deduce a few things about the race and look for indications of the eventual outcome:

- The Republican primary electorate consisted of 61% Republicans, 32% Independents and 7% Democrats

-Registered Republicans voted for Moudock by a roughly 57-43 margin. Independents, by contrast, broke towards Lugar by a huge 65-32 split; Lugar was extremely lucky that Indiana has an open primary system. Democrats nearly broke even; some seemed genuinely like Lugar, but some wanted the GOP to nominate the weaker candidate.


(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HQjUhMc3GaY/TaqSrIbzSWI/AAAAAAAACYc/hoOewfVBqY8/s1600/nchayes.png)

In North Carolina, former state Republican Party Chairman Robin Hayes, who ran as a conservative insurgent, has upset former Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory, denying him a rematch with Gov. Bev Perdue. Hayes called McCrory out-of-touch with the more conservative rural parts of the state and labelled him as an unprincipled, big-government Republican. During the last few weeks of the campaign, the tea party dumped $3 million into the smaller rural media markets in the state for Hayes. McCrory ran up predictably large margins in Charlotte and the Research Triangle, but it was not enough to save him. With virtually all precincts in, Hayes is maintaining a .9% lead.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-B4PD_qaiOg8/TaqP3kDTXBI/AAAAAAAACYU/GNGGUB-OO0k/s1600/NC.png)

Hayes- 48.9%
McCrory- 48.0%

Team Perdue is certainly breathing easier after this primary. Bev Perdue cruised to victory with 76% of her primary vote, despite her lacking statewide approval ratings. Recent polls had her trailing McCrory, but leading Hayes. While Perdue is certainly not out of the woods yet, she is expected to have an easier time retaining her seat.

PPP- NC Governor Polls (April 25-28)

Perdue- 39%
McCrory- 48%

Perdue- 43%
Hayes- 41%

Perdue Approval- 37/47


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 17, 2011, 06:34:33 am
Looking at IN map, I think Mourdock will win by 0.5 to 1%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on April 17, 2011, 04:15:03 pm
Too bad that Indiana doesn't have a closed primary system. That way Lugar would be toast.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 18, 2011, 07:49:45 pm
Thankfully Indiana has an open primary system, otherwise one of the nation's few sane Senators would be toast.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on April 18, 2011, 07:53:38 pm
Too bad that Indiana doesn't have a closed primary system. That way Lugar would be toast.

Thankfully Indiana has an open primary system, otherwise one of the nation's few sane Senators would be toast.

Wow. Two of my favorite Indianans on the forum going at it.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on April 18, 2011, 07:59:58 pm
Too bad that Indiana doesn't have a closed primary system. That way Lugar would be toast.

Thankfully Indiana has an open primary system, otherwise one of the nation's few sane Senators would be toast.

Wow. Two of my favorite Indianans on the forum going at it.

We prefer to be called "Hoosiers," thank you very much.

If tmth and me were running against each other for office, he would be the establishment candidate with gobs of donations from rich, constipated PGA tour enthusiasts, and I would be guzzling loads of cash from the Tea Party Express.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on April 23, 2011, 01:09:48 am
ANTI-INCUMBENT!!?? NOT HERE!
LUGAR WIN IS BIG SETBACK FOR TEA PARTY

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3Dx0MSXiYs8/TbJqrb9qqgI/AAAAAAAACY0/CCCCeyJ0qaQ/s1600/110208_dick_lugar_ap_328.jpg)

In what has been the first of many competitive Senate primaries to come, the establishment has pulled through in Indiana. As more precincts have poured in, its has become increasingly unlikely that Richard Mourdock will get the support he needs to unseat Senator Lugar.

With 99.9% of votes tallied, Lugar's lead is holding up:

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-x88_QgT2l2k/TbJfrl7C4RI/AAAAAAAACYs/fbkEkBHJ6w0/s1600/intl.png)
Lugar- 50.2%
Mourdock- 48.9%

To win the primary, Lugar put together an interesting electoral coalition. The Senator actually lost among registered Republicans by 15 points, 57-42. However, there is no question that Independent voters, who made up a whopping 31% of the primary electorate, obviously delivered for Lugar, as they went nearly 2-1 in his favor. Democrats, who made up 7% of the Republican primary, split nearly even between Lugar and Mourdock; 52% of Democrats seemed to genuinely like Lugar, while 47% wanted Republicans to nominate the weaker candidate. Overall, Lugar's coalition of moderate Republicans, Independnets and conservative Democrats pulled him over the finish line and allowed him to retain his seat. Going into the general election, Lugar leads Jill Thompson by margins of 30 points and is heavily favored.

Primary breakdown by party:
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ReJeGpTvhlc/TbJso-IL3BI/AAAAAAAACZE/zDzkpw-ptcc/s1600/inres.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 23, 2011, 07:09:43 am
I don't know if I like those results... I certainly like sen. Lugar, but I'd prefer a moderate democrat taking that seat =( ...

And if the primary was Tmth agains feeble, I guess Tmth would win.. sorry feeble =/


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on April 23, 2011, 07:42:19 am
Ah, fuck.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 23, 2011, 09:45:20 am
I don't know if I like those results... I certainly like sen. Lugar, but I'd prefer a moderate democrat taking that seat =( ...

And if the primary was Tmth agains feeble, I guess Tmth would win.. sorry feeble =/
If it makes you feel better, Mourdock would crush Jill Long Thompson. Just about anyone could beat her.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 23, 2011, 11:01:06 am
I don't know if I like those results... I certainly like sen. Lugar, but I'd prefer a moderate democrat taking that seat =( ...

And if the primary was Tmth agains feeble, I guess Tmth would win.. sorry feeble =/
If it makes you feel better, Mourdock would crush Jill Long Thompson. Just about anyone could beat her.

what about Brad Ellsworth or Joe Donnelly? You may consider Ellsworth a conservative democrat, but I'm not sure that's true... he voted FOR the health care reform ;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 23, 2011, 10:26:40 pm
I don't know if I like those results... I certainly like sen. Lugar, but I'd prefer a moderate democrat taking that seat =( ...

And if the primary was Tmth agains feeble, I guess Tmth would win.. sorry feeble =/
If it makes you feel better, Mourdock would crush Jill Long Thompson. Just about anyone could beat her.

what about Brad Ellsworth or Joe Donnelly? You may consider Ellsworth a conservative democrat, but I'm not sure that's true... he voted FOR the health care reform ;)
The only Democrat who could beat Mourdock is Bayh, and he isn't running. I personally would love to see Weinzapfel run, and would support him over many Republicans, but I doubt he would.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 24, 2011, 08:21:11 am
I don't know if I like those results... I certainly like sen. Lugar, but I'd prefer a moderate democrat taking that seat =( ...

And if the primary was Tmth agains feeble, I guess Tmth would win.. sorry feeble =/
If it makes you feel better, Mourdock would crush Jill Long Thompson. Just about anyone could beat her.

what about Brad Ellsworth or Joe Donnelly? You may consider Ellsworth a conservative democrat, but I'm not sure that's true... he voted FOR the health care reform ;)
The only Democrat who could beat Mourdock is Bayh, and he isn't running. I personally would love to see Weinzapfel run, and would support him over many Republicans, but I doubt he would.

Isn't Weinzapfel a liberal democrat?? He might run if it's clear Lugar will loose the primary. I really don't know.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on April 24, 2011, 12:06:17 pm
I don't know if I like those results... I certainly like sen. Lugar, but I'd prefer a moderate democrat taking that seat =( ...

And if the primary was Tmth agains feeble, I guess Tmth would win.. sorry feeble =/
If it makes you feel better, Mourdock would crush Jill Long Thompson. Just about anyone could beat her.

what about Brad Ellsworth or Joe Donnelly? You may consider Ellsworth a conservative democrat, but I'm not sure that's true... he voted FOR the health care reform ;)
The only Democrat who could beat Mourdock is Bayh, and he isn't running. I personally would love to see Weinzapfel run, and would support him over many Republicans, but I doubt he would.

Isn't Weinzapfel a liberal democrat?? He might run if it's clear Lugar will loose the primary. I really don't know.
Remember that Tmth also supports Lugar...and Weinzapfel has, I believe, denied interest in running.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 24, 2011, 07:16:58 pm
I don't know if I like those results... I certainly like sen. Lugar, but I'd prefer a moderate democrat taking that seat =( ...

And if the primary was Tmth agains feeble, I guess Tmth would win.. sorry feeble =/
If it makes you feel better, Mourdock would crush Jill Long Thompson. Just about anyone could beat her.

what about Brad Ellsworth or Joe Donnelly? You may consider Ellsworth a conservative democrat, but I'm not sure that's true... he voted FOR the health care reform ;)
The only Democrat who could beat Mourdock is Bayh, and he isn't running. I personally would love to see Weinzapfel run, and would support him over many Republicans, but I doubt he would.

Isn't Weinzapfel a liberal democrat?? He might run if it's clear Lugar will loose the primary. I really don't know.
Remember that Tmth also supports Lugar...and Weinzapfel has, I believe, denied interest in running.
Weinzapfel is center-left, like many Democrats. He just has a proven record of working with both sides in Evansville. He'd probably be better for Governor, though I'd support Pence over him.

I fail to see the point you're trying to make, Feeble. Lugar has a longstanding record as a conservative, bi-partisan Republican.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on April 24, 2011, 08:20:51 pm
What do you call START? The Automatic Weapons Ban? Comprehensive immigration reform? Appearing in an Obama campaign ad? Chairing Obama's inaugural committee? Praising Obama's foreign policy during the '08 campaign and failing to endorse a candidate? Being on Obama's short-list of potential SOS candidates? That sounds pretty liberal to me.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on April 24, 2011, 08:40:10 pm
What do you call START? The Automatic Weapons Ban? Comprehensive immigration reform? Appearing in an Obama campaign ad? Chairing Obama's inaugural committee? Praising Obama's foreign policy during the '08 campaign and failing to endorse a candidate? Being on Obama's short-list of potential SOS candidates? That sounds pretty liberal to me.

That also sounds pretty bipartisan to me.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on April 25, 2011, 03:30:45 am
JUST THE RIGHT ANGLE

CONTROVERSIAL SHARRON ANGLE WINS GOP PRIMARY...AGAIN

ANGLE, TITUS COMPETE TO BECOME NV'S 1ST FEMALE SENATOR
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hSa0yRiazvo/TbUtAKicdgI/AAAAAAAACaM/dFJsK8fMduw/s1600/nvsen.png)

Nevada Republicans essentially had three choices in their primary today; they had a good choice, a bad choice and an ugly choice. The consensus among political junkies: they sure didn't chose the good one.
Despite her initial baggage, tea party Republican Sharron Angle will be ousting Sen. John Ensign, and fending off a challenge from Rep. Dean Heller. Heller, the strongest candidate in the general election, was primarily the subject of negative attack ads from both Ensign and Angle. While both Ensign and Angle focused on dragging Heller's numbers down, Nevada Republicans seemed unwilling to forgive Ensign for his marriage scandal; Ensign thus underperformed and Angle was able to slide through.
For the tea party, the Angle win is comes as a hard-fought victory after a stinging loss in Indiana. After their win here in Nevada, other Senate races the tea party will be focusing on will include those in ME, FL, MO and TN.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-f-dZS81WRyU/TbUs_0uSMGI/AAAAAAAACZ8/wzc2O2pzE1Q/s1600/nvgoppri.png)
Angle- 35.1%
Heller- 34.2%
Ensign*- 27.8%

From a county-by-county perspective, roughly 48% of votes came from Clark county. This county delivered for Angle, who won there with 37% compared to Ensign's 28% and Heller's 32%. In the second largest vote source, Washoe County, making up 23% of the electorate, Ensign fared better, beating Angle 38-33, but it was not enough to compensate for his poor performance in Clark County. In the rural areas, accounting for the remaining 29% of the electorate, Heller and Angle ran even, each averaging about 35% with Ensign trailing with 28%.

Looking towards the general election, Republicans now have a decidedly uphill climb. Dina Titus was easily elected the Democratic nominee and has been leading Angle in the polls; the most recent Mason-Dixon gave Titus a 46-38 advantage and most handicappers will likely move Nevada from 'Tossup' to at least 'Lean Democrat.' The winner in November will become Nevada's first female Senator.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-M0SzHjk8OgA/TbUs_8Y7L8I/AAAAAAAACaE/WNlvsxOZA38/s1600/nvhousedel.p)
Nevada is also an interesting state in that 2 of its 4 House seats will be open. Congressmen Joe Heck and Shelley Berkley will be virtually assured victory. In the new 4th district, a liberal Las Vegas-based district, Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani has won her primary and is a favorite to win the general election; she will be running against Republican John Chachas. To fill Dean Heller's open seat, Sue Lowden who owns property in Reno, will run against Nancy Price; the district is only slightly red. Still, it looks like Nevada will be sending an evenly split delegation to the House.

NV district PVI's:
NV-01: D+11 (Berkley)
NV-02: R+4 (Lowden vs Price)
NV-03: R+7 (Heck)
NV-04: D+7 (Guinchigliani vs Chachas)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on April 25, 2011, 06:26:28 am
Go Angle!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 25, 2011, 08:03:40 am
What do you call START? The Automatic Weapons Ban? Comprehensive immigration reform? Appearing in an Obama campaign ad? Chairing Obama's inaugural committee? Praising Obama's foreign policy during the '08 campaign and failing to endorse a candidate? Being on Obama's short-list of potential SOS candidates? That sounds pretty liberal to me.

I call that bi-partisan, being ready to work with both sides. I admire Senator Lugar for making efforts to work with President Obama. And he did endorse McCain in 2008. Maybe he didn't in the primaries, but he did in the general election. Picking out a few pieces of legislation Lugar supported in the past few years is not an accurate interpretation of his three decades in Washington D.C., and to suggest it is, well, is quite ridiculous. I could come back with hundreds of times Lugar has stood with the Republican Party.




Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on April 25, 2011, 08:46:35 am
What do you call START? The Automatic Weapons Ban? Comprehensive immigration reform? Appearing in an Obama campaign ad? Chairing Obama's inaugural committee? Praising Obama's foreign policy during the '08 campaign and failing to endorse a candidate? Being on Obama's short-list of potential SOS candidates? That sounds pretty liberal to me.

I call that bi-partisan, being ready to work with both sides. I admire Senator Lugar for making efforts to work with President Obama. And he did endorse McCain in 2008. Maybe he didn't in the primaries, but he did in the general election. Picking out a few pieces of legislation Lugar supported in the past few years is not an accurate interpretation of his three decades in Washington D.C., and to suggest it is, well, is quite ridiculous. I could come back with hundreds of times Lugar has stood with the Republican Party.
Even if Dick Lugar did endorse McCain, I doubt he really meant it. After the second presidential debate, he released a statement praising Obama's foreign policy. And what about his support for Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan? I cannot forgive him for supporting liberal activist judges, either.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 25, 2011, 08:57:14 am
Angle won the primary? LoL, D+1 =)
Awesome, Miles. Hopefully, Price will beat Lowden and Nevada will have 5 democrat congresspeople and only 1 republican.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on April 25, 2011, 12:18:55 pm
Lowden will win :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 25, 2011, 12:52:09 pm
What do you call START? The Automatic Weapons Ban? Comprehensive immigration reform? Appearing in an Obama campaign ad? Chairing Obama's inaugural committee? Praising Obama's foreign policy during the '08 campaign and failing to endorse a candidate? Being on Obama's short-list of potential SOS candidates? That sounds pretty liberal to me.

I call that bi-partisan, being ready to work with both sides. I admire Senator Lugar for making efforts to work with President Obama. And he did endorse McCain in 2008. Maybe he didn't in the primaries, but he did in the general election. Picking out a few pieces of legislation Lugar supported in the past few years is not an accurate interpretation of his three decades in Washington D.C., and to suggest it is, well, is quite ridiculous. I could come back with hundreds of times Lugar has stood with the Republican Party.
Even if Dick Lugar did endorse McCain, I doubt he really meant it. After the second presidential debate, he released a statement praising Obama's foreign policy. And what about his support for Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan? I cannot forgive him for supporting liberal activist judges, either.
And how do you know Lugar didn't mean it? Palm readings? Health Care, Stimulus Packages, DADT...three of the biggest issues during the Obama Administration...three issues Senatore Lugar stood with the GOP on.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on April 25, 2011, 03:03:12 pm
What do you call START? The Automatic Weapons Ban? Comprehensive immigration reform? Appearing in an Obama campaign ad? Chairing Obama's inaugural committee? Praising Obama's foreign policy during the '08 campaign and failing to endorse a candidate? Being on Obama's short-list of potential SOS candidates? That sounds pretty liberal to me.

I call that bi-partisan, being ready to work with both sides. I admire Senator Lugar for making efforts to work with President Obama. And he did endorse McCain in 2008. Maybe he didn't in the primaries, but he did in the general election. Picking out a few pieces of legislation Lugar supported in the past few years is not an accurate interpretation of his three decades in Washington D.C., and to suggest it is, well, is quite ridiculous. I could come back with hundreds of times Lugar has stood with the Republican Party.
Even if Dick Lugar did endorse McCain, I doubt he really meant it. After the second presidential debate, he released a statement praising Obama's foreign policy. And what about his support for Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan? I cannot forgive him for supporting liberal activist judges, either.
And how do you know Lugar didn't mean it? Palm readings? Health Care, Stimulus Packages, DADT...three of the biggest issues during the Obama Administration...three issues Senatore Lugar stood with the GOP on.
He endorses McCain, yet praises Obama. Doesn't really seem like he meant it. And must I remind you that START was also a major focus of President Obama, and an issue that Lugar stood with the liberals on?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on April 25, 2011, 03:43:42 pm
Ok, guys, I appreciate your enthusiasm, but in this TL, Lugar wins, although by a narrow margin. There, its over; we can move on. Lugar will easily win the general election and I may have other plans for Mourdock. There; everything will be fine and rosy!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 25, 2011, 04:27:58 pm
Is Lugar a socialist, feeble? hahaha..


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on April 25, 2011, 04:45:40 pm
Is Lugar a socialist, feeble? hahaha..
No, but too liberal for me.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on April 28, 2011, 12:14:59 am
In our first look at the general election match up since Romney locked up the Republican nomination, we find a competitive. With unemployment still floating at 7.9%, we can expect voters to hold Obama accountable for the slower-than-expected recovery rate. Romney holds Obama under 270 electoral and under 50% nationally. However, Obama clings to a 12-point electoral college margin and a 2-point popular vote advantage. Both Obama and Romney post slightly positive approvals/favorables; however, since neither one can break 50%, we have the potential for a very competitive contest.

Aggregate numbers:

Do you approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?
Yes- 48%
No- 47%

Do you have a favorable view of Mitt Romney?
Yes- 46%
No- 42%

Who are you planning on voting for this November?
Obama- 47%
Romeny- 45%

In the electoral college, both candidates have their respective regional bases locked up. The Romney campaign is aggressively contesting previously blue states such as New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Colorado, all with varying degrees of success. Obama is still betting on the "new South" by strongly contesting Virginia and North Carolina.
One state where Obama has made inroads lately is Ohio; the governor, Ted Strickland, has helped Obama fund-raise and campaign. Strickland, who narrowly clung to reelection in 2010 by less than 1000 votes, has mobilized much of the state's Democratic machinery; many considered Strickland's reelection in 2010 the test-case for Obama's 2012 Ohio campaign. Unemployment in Ohio is down to 8.1%, marginally above the national average.
States where Romney is performing well include the swing state of Florida and New Hampshire.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xFzTod7X08g/TbjlrKx1rUI/AAAAAAAACbM/x3cdSID4aLA/s1600/2012presmao.png)

OBAMA- 236
ROMNEY -224


Senate Outlook

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6JYoiccKedk/Tbj3PwS_-BI/AAAAAAAACbU/JrHiYcCFfSM/s1600/2012senoverview.png)
A few key races...
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_wIjZ3Kxz3s/Tbj3WYfZ4KI/AAAAAAAACbc/elZUr3lK4RM/s1600/sen.%2Blist.png)

I'll have an updated House map out within a few days.



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on April 30, 2011, 01:38:48 am
Before I post the House map, I have a special feature on the home state of yours truly...

REDISTRICTING FREE-FOR-ALL IN LOUISIANA
NEW LA MAP PITS 4 INCUMBENTS AGAINST EACH OTHER IN JUNGLE PRIMARIES

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VfhpaZonaDg/Tbun1cIbBiI/AAAAAAAACbs/J4GVsilQP0M/s1600/JINDALHOLDER.png)

A brutal redistricting fight recently concluded between Governor Bobby Jindal and Attorney General Eric Holder. The original map submitted by the Louisiana Legislature only allowed for one minority-majority district, with African Americans making up 52% of the electorate their, while the remaining five districts would be solidly Republican. When the Obama DOJ insisted that Louisiana draw two VRA districts, Jindal decried this move as a "blatant and obvious partisan abuse of the law" and "racial politics at its worst." After initially attempting to resist and swim around the DOJ's order, a lengthy court battle ensued over the map borders. Finally, in March of 2012, the DOJ cleared Louisiana's final proposal, passed by the Republican state legislature and signed by a reluctant Jindal.
The new map consists now contains a second minority district, with a 54% black to 41% whites. LA-02, the original VRA district, increases its minority population with 53% black to 37% white.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-O_G4f5e02VA/Tbuq3Q26UbI/AAAAAAAACcU/uXLNQsRvcJg/s1600/LA32.png)


(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Gf_uT9LysAc/Tbun1o8FKXI/AAAAAAAACb0/bI5pOHdIIFw/s1600/LALEG.png)

The political ramifications from LA redistricting will be very interesting to watch as they develop.  In 4 of the 6 districts, high-profile LA politicians will be running against each other. The additional VRA district has forced Congressmen John Flemming and Rodney Alexander to be drawn into the same north-central Louisiana district, LA-04. While the 4th is Republican leaning, both will be competing in a jungle primary, potentially splitting the Republican vote; still, no prominent Democrats have appeared interested in running .
After the second redistricting plan was drafted,the old  LA-03 was left fairly similar to its current configuration (except it was numbered as the LA-06). While it retained much of its coastal lands, it has "arms" that extend near Lafayette and Baton Rouge, on either side. Because it takes in parts of Baton Rouge, Rep. Jeff Landry will be running against Rep. Bill Cassidy, setting up a proxy war between the LA Republican establishment and the tea party.

In both VRA districts, the Congressional races are looking to be equally as harsh.
In LA-02, incumbent Cedric Richmond, who carried baggage in 2010 despite his landslide win, is being challenged by former Congressman Charlie Melancon. The second district has expanded to include rural south parishes, as well as Melancon's home in Napoleonville. Louisiana Attorney General Joesph Cao said that he has "no interest" in running for his old seat.
Finally, the newly open minority 5th will feature a contest between State Rep. Michael Jackson of Baton Rouge, an Independent, Republican Chris Hazel of Alexandria, another state legislator and 2010 Democratic nominee Tom Gibbs.
Congressman Steve Scalise and Charles Boustany, because they have managed to keep their districts to themselves, have remained relatively insulated from the entire process.

LA District PVIs
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HmF9mW079i0/TbupSKzkzcI/AAAAAAAACb8/SnStRomgdvo/s1600/lapvi.png)

LA Congressional Polls for competitive districts
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kxnY6nKYsYc/TbupSQvdfuI/AAAAAAAACcE/l6SNVI5tVyM/s1600/laraces.p)


....................................................................................Louisiana politics can never be clean!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 30, 2011, 09:20:58 am
wow, fantastic update. definitely, LA politics are one of my favourites in the USA... IMO; Melancon should loose badly do Richomnd... why doesn't he try to do somethind in LA-06? I know it's R+18, but he is a Blue Dog and he can't wwin in a D+14 district...


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on May 01, 2011, 03:44:03 pm
MAY 8 2012

PPP+SurveyUSA: In our second comprehensive look at the House elections, we found little change since our late February survey. Since then, we have gotten a clearer picture of the dynamics of each race as well as the electoral landscape as a whole; clear candidates are beginning to emerge as primaries approach and all district lines are final.

Based on our polls, Republicans are still favored to hold the People's House. Our late February polls found Republicans maintaining control with 218 districts to Democrats' 197. Four months later, we found minimal movement; Republicans are favored to hold at least 215 seats to Democrats' 195.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8OeaRt6a0Tg/Tb28YutCvYI/AAAAAAAACcs/JjnNs0JHGXI/s1600/house113.png)

Republicans seats favored to flip:
FL-25 (Rivera)
MN-08 (Cravaack)
WV-01 (McKinley)
MT-AL (Open)
WY-AL (Lummis)
IL-13 (Schilling)
IL-06 (Dold)
IL-08 (Walsh)
LA-05 (Open)

Democratic seats favored to flip:
IN-02 (Open)
NC-08 (Open)
NC-13 (Miller)
OR-01 (Wu)

A few races to watch across the country.
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tVibkRjODMI/Tb3FMRqmZ_I/AAAAAAAACc0/VjED635h-Co/s1600/racestowatch.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: JewCon on May 01, 2011, 05:37:09 pm
Go Romney! Great story :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on May 01, 2011, 05:57:51 pm
I haven't been completely following this, but has Romney chosen a running mate yet?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Ron DeSanchez on May 01, 2011, 06:01:43 pm
Whats going on in Floridas 22nd district (my district), with Allen West.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on May 01, 2011, 06:50:37 pm
Incredible maps! Love the dedication :)

:)

lol. Wait 'till I start rolling out the election results! I'm planning on having the House results broken down by district AND county lines! Here's an example (NC-13):
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iV6CET-Yt5Q/Tb3vgLSAWWI/AAAAAAAACd0/H6DFNwMaEbE/s1600/NC13.png)

I haven't been completely following this, but has Romney chosen a running mate yet?

No, both Romney and Obama will be choosing running mates later (Biden will be taking over as SoS).

Whats going on in Floridas 22nd district (my district), with Allen West.

Former West Palm Beach mayor Louis Frankel is challenging Allen West. For simplicity's sake, the district itself stayed fairly unchanged.


****If anyone wants to see regions of the map in greater detail, try this link; you should be able to find the FULL size version of the map.
http://content.screencast.com/users/Milesc56/folders/Snagit/media/5cd83d62-d58a-4bec-bda8-fa57153e9f28/05.01.2011-18.31.01.bmp

Anyway, for my next post, I'll have primary results from:
- CT (we'll see how Lieberman fares as a Republican)
- UT (we find out which Republican gets to challenge Orrin Hatch and the fate of Jim Matheson)
- OH (competitive Senate primaries on both sides)
- PA (pretty boring)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on May 01, 2011, 11:31:22 pm
If anyone cares, here's the House districts map with counties.

http://content.screencast.com/users/Milesc56/folders/Snagit/media/486697a9-9fc0-4e99-810b-24bb255ad62e/05.01.2011-23.28.51.png


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: JewCon on May 05, 2011, 04:57:53 pm
Keep up the great work. Amazing story! :D Mitt 2012!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on May 16, 2011, 03:16:07 pm
NOT EVEN CLOSE
CT GOP ENDS LIEBERMAN'S CAREER, PROGRESSIVES CHEER

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sXIhwfpWRTo/TdE1Lv26GBI/AAAAAAAACe8/K8pVmW9YHl0/s1600/ctsen.png)

In one of the most interesting and closely followed primaries of this year, Linda McMahon will be defeating Senator Joe Lieberamn for the Republican Senate nomination. Lieberman switched to caucus with the GOP in 2011, still, his 20+ year association with the Democratic party was difficult to sell in a Republican primary. Another one of Lieberman's missteps could have been a fundraiser he hosted with Sen. John McCain, an unpopular figure to Republicans. McMahon nailed Lieberman on flip-flopping on economic issues, still, to have a chance in the general election, McMahon will undoubtedly have to track left. The Democrats have nominated Rep. Jim Himes, who won over minor opponents. Lieberman, unlike hos iconic 2006 run, said that he will not run in the general election as an Independent.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KS3OYytk-AM/TdE9Y7r5WXI/AAAAAAAACfE/SGXSgoh8VFY/s1600/ctgoppri.png)


In Ohio, our general election field has taken shape. On the Democratic side, Senator Sherrod Brown has easily fended off a challenge from his right in former Congressman Steve Driehaus. Brown had the support of a motivated liberal base and strong labor movement. Polls initially suggested this primary had the potential to be competitive, but Brown will win with 60%.
Far Republicans, the primary was much closer. State Auditor Mary Taylor will be defeating Congresswoman Jean Schmidt. This comes as bad news for the Democrats; most polls showed Brown with a double-digit lead over Schmidt, but in a much closer contest against Taylor.
The labor movement sweeping across the midwest will have a large roll in the outcome of this election. In the states of Michigan and Wisconsin, Republican governors have stripped away collective bargaining rights of workers; Governor Strickland, who survived reelection by only 618 votes, is battling Republican supermajorites in both state legislative chambers over collective bargaining rights. With roughly 63% of each state chamber, Republicans cannot override a veto, but the fight over labor has nonetheless ignited the Democratic base. While Mary Taylor has said that she is not in favor of taking collective bargaining rights for unions, Brown will undoubtedly try to tie her to the unpopular state Republicans.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-51GO1WYWURE/TdFF2a_Tc7I/AAAAAAAACfk/oBo9R-pEk80/s1600/ohdempri.png)



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on May 16, 2011, 04:14:58 pm
great!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: JewCon on May 16, 2011, 05:24:52 pm
Nice update :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on May 16, 2011, 06:38:29 pm
Nice update :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Pingvin on May 16, 2011, 09:52:41 pm


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on May 26, 2011, 09:44:28 am
June 1 2012
OBAMA TO ANNOUNCE BIDEN REPLACEMENT "BY THE END OF JUNE"

"Politico- Today President Obama announced that he will make his VP selection by the end of the month. Following a major Cabinet reshuffling, current VP Joe Biden will be taking over the State Department, assuming Obama is reelected. With a large number of names circulating the blogosphere, these are the names that have been mentioned by top Democratic strategists most frequently:

GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER- MONTANA

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-jRQq6LKLIz4/Td5hdrn37hI/AAAAAAAACfs/tVV_PD8LSPU/s1600/schweitzer.png)

Pros:
-During his tenure as Governor, he created the largest budget surplus in Montana's history
-Known for working across the aisle
-Expertise in energy and agricultural issues
-Would make the Democratic ticket more competitive in rural areas; would likely hand Obama Montana, possibly the Dakotas and Missouri, solidify Colorado, Nevada and other western states

Cons:
- Shcweitzer is already running for Congress, if he is elected VP, Republicans would have the benefit of the doubt to succeed him in red-leaning Montana
-Montana only has 3 electoral votes
- His executive style can be a overly aggressive and fiery at times, contrasting with Obama's cool temperament

APPROVAL RATING: 57/31

GOV. GENE TAYLOR- MISSISSIPPI

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/--0OFzHmoFWo/Td5iEfwbYdI/AAAAAAAACf0/1VJSsNFhfCI/s1600/GeneTaylor_370x278.jpg)

Pros:
-With over 20 years of experience, Taylor knows the inner workings of Congress
-Mississippi is in sound financial shape, posting slight surpluses
-Has wide crossover appeal

Cons:
-On social issues, he's to the right if Romney; liberals would freak out
-Lack of executive experience; he's been Governor for less than a year
-Even with Taylor, Obama would still struggle in the Gulf Coast states

APPROVAL RATING: 53/37


SEN. BOB CASEY-PENNSYLVANIA

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Day-Fr2LLwk/Td5irgg258I/AAAAAAAACf8/HwyLMfJrqXU/s1600/s-CASEY-large.jpg)

Pros:
-With Obama underwater in PA, his last approvals were 45/47, Casey would likely deliver Obama PA's 20 electoral votes
-Well liked by Democrats and Independents and could draw moderate Republicans
-Could help in other rust belt states

Cons:
-Pro-life stance would frustrate progressives
-Only 1 term in the Senate
-Casey's Senate seat is up this year; Dems have a lackluster bench in PA to replace him

APPROVAL RATING: 50/36


SEN. AMY KLOBUCHAR-MINNESOTA

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vyK78OuGX3I/Td5mxKO4lpI/AAAAAAAACgE/66q4LhJLIuM/s1600/KlobucharStanding-500.jpg)

Pros:
-One of the most popular Senators from either party
-Would energize women and satisfy liberals
-A strong candidate to succeed Obama in 2016

Cons:
-Like Casey, she has a Senate election in 2012 as well, though Democrats would be better off holding a seat in MN than PA
-Only 1 term in the Senate
-Despite her popularity, her profile is still fairly low

APPROVAL RATING: 60/32


SEN. PATTY MURRAY-WASHINGTON

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sVN6i_gyEZ0/Td5mxu0O2fI/AAAAAAAACgU/3_PHHMdlEu0/s1600/congratsmurray.jpg)

Pros:
-Murray would also energize women and progressives
-'Mom in tennis shoes' could resonate well with middle class
- Has the ability to win close elections and campaign effectively
- Former DSCC Chairman; can raise money well

Cons:
-Could be seen as too liberal to Independents
-Obama already polls well in WA
-She's high in the Senate Democratic ranks and may eventually want to a position of even greater stature in the Democratic caucus, rather than to oversee the entire Senate

APPROVAL RATING: 49/38


GOV. JOHN LYNCH- NEW HAMPSHIRE

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-qRih5Tx6e0A/Td5mxeQ92oI/AAAAAAAACgM/5rWUvAjN-KM/s1600/lynch.png)

Pros:
-Among the most popular Governors
-Lynch would neutralize Romney's large operation in NH
-He rode out the 2010 GOP wave in NH relatively comfortably
-Would satisfy the left, but still appeal to the center

Cons:
-Relative unknown to most
-Outside of NH, Obama already polls well in New England

APPROVAL RATING: 58/35



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on May 26, 2011, 12:44:05 pm
If I were Obama, I'd pick Lynch or Schweitzer.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: feeblepizza on May 26, 2011, 12:51:06 pm
If I were Obama, I would pick Schweitzer, Taylor, or Casey.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on May 26, 2011, 08:41:56 pm
I like seeing the pros and cons of each, and if Obama has to win, then I'm hoping for Schweitzer, Casey, or Taylor as VP.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on May 26, 2011, 09:42:48 pm
You had already said that Clinton would be the running mate.

Clinton is becoming the Secretary of Defense.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on June 11, 2011, 10:46:07 pm
CONTENTIOUS FLORIDA PRIMARY PLAYS OBAMA AGAINST CLINTON, GOP SENATORS AGAINST TEA PARTY

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kDYRYhFi28E/TfQu0iXORSI/AAAAAAAAChg/s3PvmP_RDR8/s1600/fldem.png)

As Senate primary season begins to kick into high gear, no contest is more closely watched than that in Florida. Both Democrats and Republicans have invested enormously here and heavy-hitters from each party have been flocking to Florida.

On the Democratic side, it feels like 2010 all over again. Former Governor Charlie Crist, who left office on fairly favorable terms, is battling against 2010 Democratic nominee Rep. Kendrick Meek. In 2010, President Bill Clinton emerged as top Meek ally and will be sticking with Meek during his 2012 campaign. According to President Clinton "Kendrick is the right candidate for Florida. I think Democrats, Independents and even Republicans can agree that, during his time in the House, he put his constituents above the politics of the moment. Thats what a state deserves in a Senator! Kendrick is fighter; when the going gets tough, he's not one to give up/" Despite a rocky 2010 finish Meek insists he will be victorious this year. " I'm the candidate who has a track record of legislating for the working families of Florida. I've led the charge against unfair policies that favor the rich and the established powers over our own hardworking citizens." Meek has also picked up endorsements from the Congressional Black Caucus, the ACLU and Senators Boxer, Brown (OH), Sanders and Franken.

President Obama, meanwhile, has endorsed Crist. During his time as Governor, Crist was one of the few Republicans who worked with Obama; he even went so far as to become the sole Republican Governor to endorse Obama's stimulus package. In a rally for Crist, Obama cited the former Governor's bipartisan efforts and criticized the GOP for its "extreme" stances. "Now, as many of you know, when Charlie was Governor, he always did what was best for the people of Florida. Unfortunately, some of his policies weren't too popular with those on the far right who run the Republican Party, even tough his approval rating were through the roof! In fact, they denied him a chance to become a Senator in 2010 because he was "too moderate!" Here in the Democratic Party, we welcome Charlie's common sense approach to governing and I look forward to working with him in the Senate." A handful of other top Democrats have endorsed Crist, such as Senators Landrieu, Pryor, Lincoln and Manchin.

Polls have Crist narrowly ahead and doing better in the general election. Senator Bill Nelson, who is retiring, said that he will not endorse in the primary.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mpkj84drlCo/TfQv5T5VyTI/AAAAAAAACho/ZPsdFfIQBcs/s1600/flr.png)

The Republican primary promises to be just as dramatic. Former Senator George LeMieux is running against George Prescott Bush, son of former FL Governor Jeb Bush.

During his time in the Senate, LeMieux became somewhat of rising star within the caucus and many Republican Senators have said that they would like to see him again in the Senate. LeMieux is essentially running as the "establishment" candidate. Senator Mitch McConnell has endorsed him; "In the Senate, George stood as a solid voice for fiscal sanity and was key member of the caucus. I think if the voters of Florida elect him, he will serve them well just as he has in the past." LeMieux also has the backing of several other ranking Republicans, including Senators Sessions, Kyl, Burr and Barrasso.

George P. Bush, unlike his cousin Barbara who has taken many centrist stances in her Texas campaign, has embraced the tea party. Bush said that he was inspired by Senator Marco Rubio's rapid rise the Senate. "Marco's campaign was truly motivational to me. Working from the ground up, we toppled the establishment and sent a true conservative luminary to Washington. We need more Senators like him who are tough on spending and stand up for conservative values. That's why I'm running. Florida is a right-of-center state and we can't afford to keep electing liberals like Nelson or Crist." Bush's uncle, former President George W. Bush has campaigned on his behalf. "During my administration, I would have loved to have George as a Senator; his passion for the issues and his dedication to the Constitution is unparalleled." As expected, Bush has the endorsement of Senator Rubio and the Tea Party Caucus.

One factor which may hurt Republicans here is the deep unpopularity of Governor Rick Scott. While Obama is on slightly negative ground in Florida, the latest Quinnipiac poll found voters disapproving of Scott by greater than a 2:1 margin. Scott, perhaps for the good of his party, has not endorsed a candidate in the Senate race; top state Republicans secretly admit that an endorsement from him could cripple either Bush or LeMieux in the general election. The Obama campaign is already running ads in Florida trying to link GOP nominee Mitt Romney to the wildly unpopular Scott as part of his strategy to hold Florida's 29 electoral votes.

Polling:
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ag596YKcOX0/TfQsz5iQlMI/AAAAAAAAChY/hnfEe6wskac/s1600/flpolls.png)

Favorables:

Crist............................47/39
Meek...........................40/31
LeMieux......................37/29
Bush...........................35/30

Job Approvals:

Barack Obama............46/50
Rick Scott....................28/62


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on June 27, 2011, 03:09:28 pm
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bWSmW2L8TdA/Tgji7u9EjcI/AAAAAAAACjo/EsR0o6kMHkY/s1600/maddowmatthews.png)

Rachel Maddow: Welcome to MSNBC's election coverage of this last round of Senate primaries. I'm Rachel Maddow and joining me here in my studio is my colleague Chris Matthews. We hope you'll join us for the next few hours as we roll in results from all across the country. Tonight will be nothing less than a defining night in American politics. While the presidential race between President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney is heating up, and VP speculation is running rampant, tonight we will be covering many Senate races-to-watch.
Chris: That's absolutely right, Rachel. The presidential race is important, but these Senate contests will show us how voters are feeling on the more local levels. Lets not forgot, with Democrats clinging to a 51-seat majority, almost any state could shift the balance in the Senate.


Rachel: And it looks like we have our first round of results coming in. With most precincts in, voters in the Sunshine state have chosen Senate nominees for the seat being vacated by Senator Bill Nelson. On the Democratic side, former Governor Charlie Crist is holding onto just under a 2-point lead over his opponent, former Congressman Kendrick Meek.
Chris: And Republicans have narrowly elected former Senator George LeMieux over George Prescott Bush, the son of Governor Jeb Bush. Very interesting. The Bush family clout worked for Barbara Bush in Texas, but they couldn't quite get by in Texas. I think we could be seeing more from Bush in the future, but tonight just wasn't his night.  In any case, this will no doubt be one the marquee Senate races this year; it could even hinge on the President's performance there.
Rachel: There's another interesting dynamic here. LeMieux owes his national prominence to Crist. Crist appointed him to the Senate and LeMieux was essentially Crist's right-hand man for most of term as governor. To say that I'm interested to see how this race turns out would be a vast understatement....

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Wd8U_OHvGlY/TgjepeGa9KI/AAAAAAAACjY/RDi0tMQ4KMw/s1600/cristlem.png)

Democratic Primary

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-C3ZLR-aAyM0/Tge7_skj9tI/AAAAAAAACiA/8vo_quK4HUI/s1600/FL.png)

CRIST- 47.2%
MEEK- 45.7%


Republican Primary

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-KyjAdTFqj88/Tge7_tgLnqI/AAAAAAAACiI/l6FJFBo4uL4/s1600/flgop.png)

LEMIEUX- 48.0%
BUSH- 46.5%

Chris: Now it looks like we have a first results from Utah starting to come in. Let me tell 'ya, Beehive State politics is something else...
Rachel: That's right, Chris. Senator Orrin Hatch, after seeing his colleague Bob Bennett get whacked at the Republican Convention last cycle, decided that he too would likely fail the purity test and subsequently fled the GOP to run as an Independent. Had Hatch stayed a Republican, his career would have probably ended at the Convention a few months ago and he wouldn't have even made it to this primary!  
Chris: Also, no Democrat filed to run for Senate. Some are saying that Hatch made a deal with the Utah Democratic Party; if they didn't run as candidate, he would become the default-Democrat and still pick up moderate Republicans. Will it work? We'll see...
Rachel: We'll see what  happens to Senator Hatch. Tonight Republicans decided who they will run against him in the general election. The top two vote-getters at the convention were Rep. Jason Chaffetz and lawyer Tim Bridgewater. From what we can gather, Chaffetz will be winning by about 8 points.
Chris: Lets not forget that Utah is almost a single-party Republican state. Will it only vote for a Senator with an "R" behind his name? The polls are tight so this election could boil down the ground game of these candidates. No doubt Hatch is taking a big risk. No telling whether he's just prolonging his fate by running as an Independent.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-F4Bq5WhNOBk/TgjgTSeeijI/AAAAAAAACjg/WFzSWnE-uG0/s1600/hatchch.png)

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-YRC1ywqn81k/TgfCPB0FASI/AAAAAAAACiQ/LYdQ7tRve-M/s1600/UT.png)

CHAFFETZ- 54.2%
BRIDGEWATER- 45.8%


Chris: Next we're going to Tennessee, where its bad news if you're an incumbent Republican Senator. Remember, back in 2006, Tennessee was one of the few bright spots for Republicans; it was the only competitive race that went to the GOP as Bob Corker kept Bill Frist's seat. Well, tonight Corker will be losing the GOP nomination for that seat in the primary.
Rachel: Corker was never especially liked by conservatives; he made it onto a few tea party primary "hit lists." The Republican field for this race was pretty very crowded; it looks like Corker just got drowned out. The GOP nod will instead go to Congressman Zach Wamp. Wamp ran as seemed to successfully bridge the gap between the tea party and the GOP establishment. Singer Hank Williams Jr., former Congressman Van Hilleary and perennial/joke candidate Basil Marceaux also ran.
Chris: On the Democratic side, former Congressman Bart Gordon has had a pretty easy walk to the nomination. Even though Tennessee is red, a respected  guy like Gordon could have a shot at winning, especially with Corker gone. This just shows you how crazy these primaries can be. I mean, who would have though Bob Bennett, Mike Castle and now Bob Corker would go down like this!?
Rachel: And no word from the Corker camp about a possible write-in or independent run. Looks like his options are pretty slim at this point; he'd have to do a ton of legal and logistical maneuvering to even get back on the ballot.
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7IqmLHxye0U/TggDNDGUyaI/AAAAAAAACjI/OuN7xmFAdSs/s1600/TN.png)

Wamp- 32.6%
Corker*- 30.1%
Hilleary- 19.0%
Williams- 16.5%
Marceaux- 1.1%


Chris: Missouri has always had interesting elections and tonight is no exception. Freshman Claire McCaskill, who was a big Obama supporter in 2008, could be in for a bumpy ride.
Rachel: Yep. The main contest tonight was between Republicans vying to dislodge her  in the fall. Sarah Steelman emerged as a tea party contender, she won the backing if Senator Jim DeMint and made a real grassroots effort to connect with conservative rural voters. On the other hand Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer ran as more traditional Republican, who was close with the establishment powers.  From what we can report so far, it looks like this will be another close race. Still, we can project that Steelman will hold into a victory with about 51% to 48% to Luetkemeyer.
Chris: Well, looking at the polls, McCaskill would have had a close race with either of the candidates. Steelman definitively has conservative enthusiasm on her side, but she could be seen as less mainstream. This is another seat that could well hinge on the outcome of the Presidential race.
Even if you look at the primary map, you can find clues about the genera election. Steelman performed well in the very socially conservative southern and western regions and narrowly pulled out Kansas City.. Luetkemeyer took a more suburban strategy and won the St. Louis suburbs, most of his district and even a few college towns. This polarization is very interesting.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0zmn_gFdbhA/TgjPnYGxJdI/AAAAAAAACjQ/JiYLW7vFMgM/s1600/MO.png)


STEELMAN- 51.1%
LUETKEMEYER- 47.7%

Rachel: Moving to our last state, the Evergreen State looks like a mixed bag for Democrats. The jungle primaries tonight will determine which candidates will advance to the fall election. Senator Maria Cantwell has won a clear majority. The Republican vote was fractured mostly between 2010 House candidate Chris Koster and tea partier Clint Didier. With a 27%, Koster will be the Republican advancing with Cantwell. Nonetheless, Cantwell looks to be in fairly solid shape, as exit polls showed her job approval ratings at a positive 49/36 spread.
Chris: Well Rachel, one thing that definitely isn't positive for Democrats is Governor Gregoire's performance. While she will still be advancing to the general election, she has finished in second place. Even with another semi-major Republican on the ticket, conseervative businessman Paul Akers, Republican AG Rob McKenna has a 6-point lead over Gregoire. Going forward, its very tough to see how Gregroire wins in the general election. Bottom line, if the election were today, she'd lose.
Rachel: Governor Gregoire essentially has 4 months to win back enough voters for her third term. We've seen another unpopular Democratic Governor, Bev Perdue in North Carolina, "luck out" and get a lower-tier opponent over a more electable one, but Gregroire had no such luck. For the record, voters from the exit polls don't like Gregoire, but they're not in love with McKenna either; our polls show that they disapprove of Gregoire 40/51, but only 44% have a favorable opinion of McKenna to 41% who see him negatively. So, this wraps up out and we hope you enjoyed our coverage and that you will join us again for future elections!

Washington Senate Jungle Primary

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wf6Q0Uv0PGs/TgfzDBK7ZhI/AAAAAAAACi4/bDSFKqntDFY/s1600/WA.png)
CANTWELL (D)- 51.4%
KOSTER (R)- 26.8%

DIDIER (R)- 19.3%
OTHERS- 2.5%


Washington Gubernatorial Jungle Primary

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-g0Z31JP8zLg/TgfyxuXKMMI/AAAAAAAACiw/ogVoweshGkc/s1600/WAgov.png)
MCKENNA (R)- 46.6%
GREGOIRE (D)- 41.0%

AKERS (R)-7.7%
OTHERS- 4.7%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on June 27, 2011, 08:13:40 pm
Great!!!! Amazing update (however, this should have been updated some days before...)!!

continue, please


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on June 28, 2011, 11:05:10 am
Nate Silver/538.com-

"Now that each party has their nominees chosen in all 35 Senate races, we at 538.com have released our first full election forecast. The results are based on recent polls as well as 100,000 election simulations.

Based on our results, control of the upper chamber could hinge on virtually any state. Overall, Democrats are likely to hold onto 51 seats to 48 for Republicans and 1 seat is an outright statistical tie.

Each party is favored to "pick-up" two seats thus far. Republicans will almost certainly take Nebraska, we give GOP Governor Heineman a 98.9% chance of winning there. In Ohio Republican AG Mary Taylor is a slight favorite to oust freshman Sherrod Brown; Taylor's chance of victory is 50.4% compared to Brown's 49.6%.

Nevada will be a bright spot for Democrats this year. Former Rep. Dina Titus has an 85.4% chance of flipping that seat over to Democrats and defeating tea partier Sharron Angle. The other likely Democratic pickup is Connecticut, where Rep. Jim Himes is a 65% favorite to defeat Linda McMahon and take back Joe Lieberman's seat.

The New Jersey Special election is an absolute tie; appointed Senator Frank LoBiondo and former Governor Jon Corzine each won in 50,000 simulations. If there was a state most likely to flip the Senate balance, it could be New Jersey. Its other Senator, Bob Menedez, is looking fairly decent, as he has a 68.4% chance of retaining his seat.

We project that 3 Independents will win as well. The safest is Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who has no major party opposition. In Maine Olympia Snowe is also running strong for a 4th term; she has an 84% likelihood of winning her 3-way race. Finally, Orrin Hatch is only a narrow favorite, posting a 50.3% chance of winning.

We'll have House and President simulations out soon."

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-QCMzmaxBAxY/Tgn4iwUA5MI/AAAAAAAACkA/NrGypi0yyzA/s1600/538p1.png)

Projected Election Results by State

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RNQEDJt-cqo/Tgn7VfJQEZI/AAAAAAAACkI/E1XISjX3KYQ/s1600/senate538.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: HST1948 on June 28, 2011, 02:10:54 pm
I'm so glad you decided to continue posting! Great updates!!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Barnes on June 28, 2011, 04:51:29 pm
I'm so glad you decided to continue posting! Great updates!!!

Agreed! This is  fabulous timeline! :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on June 28, 2011, 07:49:13 pm
I'm so glad you decided to continue posting! Great updates!!!

Agreed! This is  fabulous timeline! :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Kevin on June 28, 2011, 10:15:41 pm
Good job so far Miles!

While I don't agree with the storyline entirely, I still have to say you spared no effort with this.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on June 29, 2011, 02:27:39 pm
Nate Silver/538.com-

"Much the same as with our Senate forecast, our first Presidential simulation has yielded a very close result. Our initial look at the Presidential race shows President Obama clinging to a bare 270 electoral votes to 262 for Republican challenger Mitt Romney; they both have a statistically equal chance of carrying Nevada. As for the popular vote, we project Obama winning by roughly a 50-48.5 margin; quite a far cry from his 7-point victory over Senator McCain in 2008.

Despite the unpopularity of several Republican Governors in the region, Obama continues to struggle in areas of the Industrial Midwest. The states that are most worrisome for him are Ohio, Pennsylvania, and to a lesser extent, Indiana. We project Romney as a moderate favorite to win Ohio, he has a 59% of carrying its 18 electoral votes. An encore performance in Indiana is unlikely for Obama at this point; his chances are a mere 37% to Romney's 63%. We give Romney only a narrow edge Pennsylvania; he posts a 50.8% chance of winning there to Obama's 49.2%. If the President has any room for improvement nationally, much of it would be in these states.

Romney posts similar leads in the states of Florida and New Hampshire. Ever since the primaries, Romney has been running a solid campaign operation in the Granite State and his efforts seem to be paying off. Just next to New Hampshire, Obama is in a rather perilous position in Maine. Even though Maine was an 18-point slaughter for Republicans in 2008, Romney is using his northeastern image to appeal to Independent voters there. Still, Obama is a favorite to carry Maine. Romney is favored to win Florida, but Obama has closed the gap in most polls. Over the last few months Obama has turned an average deficit of 7 points into a deficit of only 2 or 3 points in the latest polls.

Despite his relatively poor standing in the aforementioned states, there is some good news for the President. Obama is favored to hold at least 5 of 9 states he flipped in 2008. He's headed for a victory of roughly 3 and 6 points in the states of Iowa and Virginia, respectively. The President is in even stronger standings in Colorado and New Mexico where his chances of winning are 76% and 85%, respectively. Lastly, the home of the 2012 Democratic Convention, North Carolina, is marginally favorable to Obama; were we project him winning by 1 point."

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HvDiL9dHEZs/Tgt705rE8lI/AAAAAAAACkg/V-CcHFttS8o/s1600/538pres.png)


Obama and Romney split our list of the 18 most competitive states almost evenly; Obama is favored in 8, Romney takes 9 of them and Nevada is tied.

Projected Results in Competitive/Swing States
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/--qmJrZRzwhk/Tgt8A90bahI/AAAAAAAACko/Yd_ef4CUoCo/s1600/18comp.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on June 29, 2011, 06:19:09 pm
That map is a bit of an upset... But I hope Obama will carry some "romney" states in that map like PA, OH and FL.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: HST1948 on June 29, 2011, 07:26:28 pm
Did Obama chose his new VP yet, or did I miss it somewhere in the thread?

As always, great job and please continue!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on June 29, 2011, 08:51:39 pm
Did Obama chose his new VP yet, or did I miss it somewhere in the thread?

As always, great job and please continue!

The next few posts will deal with the VPs!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on June 29, 2011, 08:55:26 pm
As I've said many times before, I love your work, Miles! Well done :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Kevin on June 29, 2011, 10:22:56 pm
That map is a bit of an upset... But I hope Obama will carry some "romney" states in that map like PA, OH and FL.

I'd move North Carolina to lean Republican, and make VA and Florida toss-ups. Also I'd move OH  MI, IA, and CO to toss-up status as well with PA perhaps being slightly Democratic.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on June 30, 2011, 02:36:50 pm
OBAMA MAKES VP PICK: POPULAR AR GOVERNOR MIKE BEEBE


(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Y4LdwaWdy3k/TgzFYVkYK1I/AAAAAAAACkw/wXolxv7NQJE/s1600/obamabeebe.png)

Politico-

"Today President Obama picked his 2012 Vice Presidential running-mate; Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe. Beebe, elected in 2006, has been among the most well-liked Governors in the state's history. Despite the GOP tide that struck the state in 2008, Beebe was reelected in a landslide, winning by more than 30 points. Since then Beebe has remained very popular; the last poll taken showed that 65% approved of his performance to only 29% who disapprove.

In his announcement speech, Obama cited Beebe's work as a problem-solver within his state. "While searching for a running mate, Mike's record stuck out me. To Mike, there are no such things as 'Democratic ideas or Republican ideas' only 'good ideas' and 'bad ideas.' This centrist approach has outlined his approach to governing. We could use more of that in Washington."

Obama also quipped about Beebe's record as a fiscal conservative. "I'm surprised that the tea party hasn't endorsed him! They want lower taxes and a more efficient government, right!?Then I give you Exhibit A: Governor Beebe!" During his 6-year tenure as Governor, he has drawn dozens of new businesses to Arkansas by reducing taxes on both corporations and individuals. Arkansas' unemployment rate is well under the national rate of 8.0%; it stands at 6.8%.

Governor Beebe himself also expressed enthusiasm about his selection. "Arkansas has a rich tradition of sending Democrats to Washington. For years, out two great Senators, Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor, as well as our Congressional Democrats, have done a great job of representing our Arkansan values in the Senate. As I aspire to the President of the Senate, I hope to join them in fighting not only for the people of this state, but for all Americans.

I truly believe that Washington can learn from what we've done here in the Razorback State. During my time as Governor, I tried to follow in the footsteps of another giant from Arkansas, President Clinton. I hear this all the time from some Republicans, they ask me: Why are you a Democrat? Democrats are just a bunch of big-spending fiscal liberals who are borrowing us into an oblivion. I tell them: Have you ever heard of Bill Clinton!?"


Beebe went on to emphasize his record of public service. "Throughout my twenty years in politics, two if my prime issues have been education and fiscal conservatism.  While Republicans all over the country are axing their education systems and laying off teachers, I expanded our early education programs and made record investments in our universities and smaller local colleges. As a result, Arkansans will have an edge in the job market for decades to come. In bringing my perspective to the table, I hope to duplicate this on the national level. Also, while most states are in the fiscal red, I've worked with the Legislature kept Arkansas going strong. Our country faces real challenges that will extend far beyond this election cycle. As Vice President, I will bring my agenda for jobs and education to Washington."

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-IOdJNGuTTIw/TgzKwmG_IQI/AAAAAAAACk4/f5A-BVhVh7Y/s1600/beebe.png)

Despite Obama's selection, it remains to be seen whether he will ultimately be able to carry the state's 6 electoral votes. Ever since the days of Bill Clinton, Arkansas has aggressively trended Republican.  In 2008, McCain won there 59-39. In 2010, Democrats lost control of the states Congressional delegation, though Senator Blanche Lincoln narrowly won reelection against a very flawed opponent, Gilbert Baker.

Most pundits agree that in picking Beebe, Obama is aiming to strengthen his standing among Independents and moderate voters rather than playing to the liberal base. MSNBC analysis Chuck Todd maintains that "there could be some backlash from the left here, but Obama really does need to go after those crucial independent and centrist voters. Beebe was a good pick for that." Todd also conjectured about Republican Mitt Romney's selection "I think Romney will take the opposite route and chose a fairly conservative running mate. Most Republicans already view him as slightly liberal, so a more conservative VP choice could help him secure his ranks within his own party."

Romney is slated to make his VP choice next week."


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on June 30, 2011, 02:39:07 pm
Arkansas could flip with a weaker nominee, but with Romney as the GOP nominee, I can't see it flipping unless he chooses a moderate as his VP, and even then, it'd be close.

My guess is this pick won't be taken to well in the far-left of the party, who already aren't too happy with Obama.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 04, 2011, 10:35:16 pm
GOP TICKET EMERGES WITH ROMNEY VP CHOICE:  SEN. JOHN THUNE

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bloUC1QqfoY/ThKGFEQvBWI/AAAAAAAACl4/v1AOmUjwpOU/s1600/thuner.png)

Politico-

"With Obama's choice of Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe last week, presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney today made his VP selection. Senator John Thune, who has represented  South Dakota for 8 years thus far in the Senate and 6 in the House, will join Romney on the GOP ticket. Like his Democratic counterpart, Governor Beebe, Thune is hugely popular among his constituents; the last poll showed Thune with a whopping 63/29 approval rating.

In his speech, Romney emphasized Thune's strong electoral record as well as his accomplishments in the Senate. "I believe the ultimate barometer for anyone in public service is their relationship with the people they represent. John Thune has always kept the values of the people of South Dakota with him. For 6 years, John represented South Dakota in the People's House; during those years, he was always elected in landslides. Then, in 2002, he decided to run for Senate. After a brutal campaign, John lost the closest Senate election in state history. After that loss, he could have easily given up. But that's not John. In 2004, he came back stronger than ever, as he became the first candidate in 52 years to oust a sitting Party Leader in the Senate. I truly admire this persistence to do the right thing.

Since becoming a member of the Senate, he quickly emerged as a leader within the Republican caucus on a number of issues ranging from taxes, to agriculture, to foreign policy and to transportation. He has been a powerful voice for responsible spending and commonsense reforms. Even as he has become one of the most influential conservatives within the Senate, he has never lost touch with the people who sent him there. In fact, last election cycle, no one even filled to challenge him!

I chose John because he represents a fresh approach to responsible, conservative governance. He will be a Vice President for all generations. While he has done an excellent job representing his constituents, the positive results of John's work in the Senate have rippled  well past the prairies of South Dakota. His legislative experience will be an invaluable asset to the Republican ticket. "


Thune responded. "When Governor Romney asked me to run as Vice President, I knew that my county was calling me. I couldn't be more excited that this opportunity was afforded to me. While this a great time to be a Republican, our country faces challenges. Working with Governor Romney, our administration's prime focus will be to expand the private sector and to create a more efficient federal government. I have fought for jobs and smaller government during my time in the Senate and I will do the same in by using my influence as Vice President.

I would encourage Americans, over these next few months to examine my record. Because of the pro-growth policies that I have fostered, along with other Republicans in my state, South Dakota has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country. As Vice President, I will make sure that every state state will enjoy prosperity."


With both major party tickets set, campaign season will fully ensue. The Democratic and Republican Conventions, respectively in Charlotte and Tampa, will take place in roughly a month."


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 05, 2011, 06:30:51 pm
29 AUGUST 2012

DEMS MAKE 2012 PITCH IN THE QUEEN CITY; HOST GOV. PERDUE: "THIS IS OUR CHANCE"

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-aOgupuFg4Qs/ThOcAm_wqCI/AAAAAAAACmY/T6xSFa06fEw/s1600/charlotte.png)

As the 2012 Democratic National Convention kicked into gear, top Democrats aimed to use this opportunity to remind voters what President Obama and Democrats have accomplished since 2008. At the same, many speakers at the Convention took the time to attack the Republican ticket. However, one obviously common theme throughout the convention was the need to reelect President Obama. Governor Bev Perdue said "ever since Charlotte was selected, I was intent on making this the most memorable party convention in recent history" and that she would use it to "showcase the progress that North Carolina has made under President Obama's policies." "Working with Mayor Foxx and DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, we left no stone unturned. This convention will offer Democrats an excellent chance to show the nation what our party offers."

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kz_uC_OjthE/ThOUGJBJsVI/AAAAAAAACmI/ZQ_m7Xm0PpI/s1600/lujan.jpg)

The keynote speaker, Rep. Ben Ray Lujan of New Mexico, who is running for Senate, also gave a most impressive performance. While he praised Obama's record, he also blasted the Republican Party. "At this critical point in our history, we cannot afford to go back to another Republican administration. I can say with confidence that no other President in recent history has done more to help our children, our immigrants, our working class and our veterans than Barack Obama. America, we've come too far in these last four years to throw in the towel on progress in change. The goal of a Romney/Thune administration will be simple: accelerate wealth to the top at the expense of everyone else. Thats what their core philosophy has been for decades. Thats what Republican Governors across the country are trying to do. We Demcorats know that this approach doesn't work. Thats why Barack Obama has given record tax cut to our hardworking middle class, not the wealthiest few."

Lujan also pointed out Obama's record investments in renewable energy through programs such as his 2009 stimulus package and other initiatives. "In these four years, what has impressed me most about the Obama administration its investments in clean, renewable energy sources. Remember the petro-dictators that governed our country from 2000 to 2008!? We cannot go back to that! In New Mexico, thanks to both federal and local efforts, we have found new ways to harness wind and solar power to meet the needs of our ever-growing population. We have been leading the way in finding new and sustainable energy sources. Because of our work and research in this sector, New Mexicans are turning profits and beating the national recession. Thats a model that works. On this issue, Barack Obama is right and Mitt Romney is wrong!

Because of the bold steps President Obama took in his stimulus programs, 20,000 people in my district and over 52,000 people in the state of New Mexico have gone back to work; thousands more have kept their jobs. Thats the change that we can believe in. This is why Barack Obama is right and Mitt Romney is wrong! While my state is going strong on the way to recovery, with an unemployment rate of 5.5%, there is much work left to be done. America needs Barack Obama and Mike Beebe to continue this upward trend of job creation and innovation!"


(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-orQpecxu0zc/ThOV-FKa7AI/AAAAAAAACmQ/Wh8MewOd6_Q/s1600/3dems.png)

Other than the keeping Obama in the White House, Democrats' primary goal is to maintain their control of of the Senate; they currently hold just a 51-49 majority. As such, the DNC also featured many Democratic Senate candidate from across the country. Former Sen. Russ Freingold, Rep. Dina Titus and Sen. Jon Tester, who are all running for Senate in swing states, emphasized the importance of keeping the Upper House.

Feingold, a hero to the progressives, bashed the Republicans who control his state. "The Republicans wanted Wisconsin to be their test case for what they plan to do if they win this year. Under their control, Wisconsin has gone backward to the nineteenth century. Our out-of-control Legislature and our puppet Governor have taken away rights from our middle class in the name of pushing a radical agenda. This cannot be the case for the country. If anyone out there in on the fence and doesn't know how they'll vote next year, do yourself a favor and look at the Wisconsin Republicans. If I am elected to the Senate again, I will work to do whatever I can to curtail the effects of the Citizens United case. Giving corporations the same rights as people helped enable many Republicans across our country to get elected in 2010 and push their extreme agendas."

"In Nevada, we're still suffering from the Bush Administration," Titus claimed. "As a result of the reckless Republican financial policies and lack of oversight, the crash in the housing market has caused our unemployment rate to skyrocket and the values of our homes to decline. While President Obama and Leader Reid have promoted stimulus policies which gotten our local employers to begin hiring again, we cannot afford to hand power back over to Republicans."

Finally, in his speech, Senator Tester tried to appeal to centrists . "As a pro-gun westerner, I might not agree with my party on everything, but I know that we Democrats are the party of the common man. I believe that President Obama has seen how we do business in Montana and knows the needs of our people. Working together, our Democratic Governor, Brian Schwietzer and our Republican legislature, have posted the greatest surpluses in our states history. In Montana, we know that working together is more important than trying to tear each other down. Thats how I try to work in the Senate and the President has tried to be similarly bipartisan in his outreach to Congressional Republicans. Still, while bipartisanship is necessary, there are some critical areas, such as taxes and spending, where we disagree, that is why Democrats must retain the Senate."

President Obama is scheduled to speak tomorrow.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 06, 2011, 12:33:59 pm
30 AUGUST 2012

OBAMA AT DNC: "LOOK HOW FAR WE'VE COME"

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-B9UkySTHgCE/ThSWYkvN35I/AAAAAAAACmw/Jqkir2zvBAE/s1600/79393-president-barack-obama.jpg)

"Thank you Democrats. Thank you Charlotte.

I stand here in front of America to call for a renewed effort for change and progress. To build upon the foundation of what we have already achieved a a country. Tonight, our nation faces a critical juncture. We all know that our country faces many challenges.

Still, as a people, we have always been able to outlast our travails and survive our hardships. I believe that while we have always taken pride in our robust, independent spirit, that government can serve as a force of real and permanent good. Just look at our history. We believe, in the words of our first Republican president, Abraham Lincoln, that through government, we should do together what we cannot do as well for ourselves.  And so we’ve built a strong military to keep us secure, and public schools and universities to educate our citizens.  We’ve laid down railroads spanning thousands of miles and highways to facilitate travel and commerce. We’ve supported the work of scientists and researchers whose discoveries have saved lives, unleashed repeated technological revolutions, and led to countless new jobs and entire industries.  Each of us has benefitted from these investments, and we are a more prosperous country as a result.

Part of this American belief that we are all connected also expresses itself in a conviction that each one of us deserves some basic measure of security.  We recognize that no matter how responsibly we live our lives, hard times or bad luck, a crippling illness or a layoff, may strike any one of us. So, we've  constructed programs like Medicare and Social Security, which guarantee us health care and a measure of basic income after a lifetime of hard work; unemployment insurance, which protects us against unexpected job loss; and Medicaid, which provides care for millions of seniors in nursing homes, poor children, and those with disabilities.  We are a better country because of these commitments.  Throughout my administration, I've strived to build on these achievements.

....Because of the legislation I enacted with Congress in the first part of my term, a severe recession was curtailed.  Millions of Americans are on track to get affordable, quality healthcare. The mastermind of 9/11 Osama bin Laden, will no longer be terrorizing our world. Our gay men and women in uniform can openly and honestly serve in our armed forces....

...Now, I compel you, America, to look at the other side. The Republican plan for the future is a vision that says even though America can’t afford to invest in education or clean energy; even though we can’t afford to care for seniors and poor children, we can somehow afford more than $1 trillion in new tax breaks for the wealthy.  Think about it.  In the last decade, the average income of the bottom 90% of all working Americans actually declined.  The top 1% saw their income rise by an average of more than a quarter of a million dollars each.  And that’s who needs to pay less taxes?  They want to give people like me a two hundred thousand dollar tax cut that’s paid for by asking thirty three seniors to each pay six thousand dollars more in health costs?   That’s not right, and it’s not going to happen as long as I’m President.

The fact is, their vision is less about reducing the deficit than it is about changing the basic social compact in America.  As Ronald Reagan’s own budget director said, there’s nothing “serious” or “courageous” about this plan.  There’s nothing serious about a plan that claims to reduce the deficit by spending a trillion dollars on tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires.  There’s nothing courageous about asking for sacrifice from those who can least afford it and don’t have any clout on Capitol Hill.  And this is not a vision of the America I know...

...America, as my friend Governor Bev Perdue said of this moment in history, this is our chance! We cannot and we will not go back to the horrendous policies that in the past have left our nation financially crippled and stranded on the global chance. This is our time, our chance to continue towards progress and recovery!

Thank you, Democrats! Thank you North Carolina! Thank you Americans!"




And of course, Obama gets and obligatory post-convention poll boost:

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rd6f7UG8NPs/ThScQM3bfdI/AAAAAAAACm4/Y_dz1yGedZQ/s1600/polls1.png)

 


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 06, 2011, 12:55:32 pm
Keep it coming! I look forward to seeing the results :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 07, 2011, 02:08:18 pm
GOP TRIES TO MAKE SELL IN TAMPA...RICK SCOTT? RICK, WHO?

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mCu0etxxWko/ThXlQE7aaXI/AAAAAAAACnQ/9R_F7j38ytY/s1600/tampascott.png)

As the Democrats wrapped up their Charlotte convention, media cameras now travel down to Tampa, where the Republicans will try to sell their message to millions of viewers. "This will certainly give American voters a good chance to hear from the top leaders and candidates within our party so that they can make a better informed choice this fall" said RNC Chair Reince Priebus. He added "During the course of this convention, we will highlight the real and substantive differences that make Republicans the party better suited to lead. We have a plethora of new candidates and officeholders who were elected in 2010. I have not doubt that their stories will inspire voters to come to the Republican side this fall."

However, one face that was noticeably absent convention events was Florida's Republican Governor, Rick Scott. This stood in stark contrast to Governor Bev Perdue, who played a very central role in organizing and overseeing the Democratic Convection in her state. Many pundits conjectured that top Republicans were trying to marginalize the vastly unpopular Scott. Pollster Tom Jensen agrees with that assessment "He's the least popular Governor in the country. His approvals are under 30%. Even with Republicans, he breaks no better than even in our polls. 'Definitely not someone you'd want to advertise. It makes sense that the Republican leadership would be sidelining him. " Scott's top legislative adviser offered another reason though. "Many pieces of legislation that are key to the Governor's pro-growth agenda are currently up for consideration in the Legislature. His main goal is to ensure his legislation sails smoothly through the Legislature. We regret that the Governor's busy schedule will preclude him from spending much time at the convention."

The keynote speaker was freshman Congressman Chip Cravaack of Minnesota. His speech was  part of an effort by Republicans to showcase the members of their new House freshman class.


(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hlTkUmKhD4Y/ThXpPMZQcsI/AAAAAAAACnY/0XC7tN8zsuk/s1600/cravaack.png)

In his speech, Cravaack gave an account of his own uphill election battle. "Dozens of Republicans like me earned the trust of our constituents in 2010 and we were sent to do our people's work in Congress. I think I speak for most of my colleagues when I say that I know what it feels like to be counted out. When I announced my candidacy against an influential, seemingly infallible-term incumbent, no one thought I could win. On the campaign trail, they'd tell me "Chip, you know, Oberstar is unbeatable. He even beat a former Senator who ran against him! This is a blue district!" But thanks to the grassroots support from a powerful, energized movement of ordinary people who wanted a voice in Washington, I was elected, along with many promising new conservative leaders.
At the local level, Republicans were also swept into power in Minnesota as they took both houses of our Legislature. Thanks to an effort headed by another one of our great Congressman, Michelle Bachmann and a passionate outpouring of concerned voters, we turned Minnesota red.  My friends, this is a good time to be a Republican!
But, of course, this isn't about the past or this isn't about any one state. We know that America must elect Mitt Romeny and John Thune this November. They will put an end to one of the most reckless, irresponsible administrations that we've seen in a generation! Mitt's experience as a Governor combined with John's years of legislating at the local and national levels will be exactly what our country needs at this vital chapter in our history!"


He also criticized the ramifications of Obama's policies on his district and on the country, specifically regarding agricultural and foreign policy matters. "The Cap-and-Trade agenda being championed by Democrats will strangle the farmers, dairy workers and miners in my district. The effects of this legislation are driving up the operation costs on the workers and farmers of my district and throughout the country. The taxes that are imposed on our workers must be lifted at once if we are to be competitive market force. Mitt Romney will understands that these policies are hurting America's businesses. He knows that dependence on the federal government is not healthy for anyone! Again, I think I speak for many of us when I say that this administration is leaving rural America behind! Senator Thune is from a rural state himself and he will bring a pro-agriculture perspective to a new Republican administration.
As a pilot in the navy, I helped defend my country.
The way that Obama weakens our global standing and apologizes to our enemies is disgraceful. We need a new, more efficient foreign policy that recognizes American exceptionalism, as well as strong commitment to men and women like me who serve. Mitt Romney understands this and he will not be conceding anything to other countries."


Three of the most well-received speakers where Rep. Kristi Noem, Rep. Tim Scott and Congressional candidate Ilario Pantano.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7r-_2lf_5Sk/ThYA8mK7fYI/AAAAAAAACng/q3tEDvbg0VY/s1600/3reps.png)

"As a South Dakotan, I was thrilled when my Senator, John Thune, was chosen to run for Vice President" Noem said. "I've worked with him, I've campaigned with him and I can tell you, he's ready to lead.What a great choice Governor Romney made! A Romney-Thune Administration will value the priorities of our working heartland citizens over the whims of the union-heads or the city machines. As I battle in Congress for my constituent, it will be great to have a President that actually supports me!
What Republicans have done in South Dakota will be am example for the entire country. By lowering taxes and crafting legislation to foster the individualistic spirit if our people, our state has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the county and our finances are going steady. Thats conservative leadership that makes a difference!"


"Now, contrary to what many liberals think, just because I'm of a certain race or look a certain way doesn't mean you can just put me in an ideological box" Scott maintained.  "I was part of a wave of true conservative candidates who were elected in the great state of South Carolina in 2010; as a result, 4 of the 6 members of the South Carolina House delegation are fresh, new Constitutionalists. During our time in Congress, our delegation has helped bring conservative, tea party values to Congress. We called for steep spending cuts and were a driving force in the effort to repeal Obamacare."

Pantano, who is running in a rematch against North Carolina Rep. Mike McIntrye, seemed to channel Sen. Marco Rubio. "Now, my father came here from Italy. As he started out here, here he of course didn't have much. But, the values that where instilled in him by his family, persistence, self-motivation and independence, are the same parameters that I live by. On a side note, I must admit that, as an Italian-American American, I'm embarrassed that the first Speaker of the House of Italian heritage was Nancy Pelosi! With your help, we will make sure that Pelosi does not get her gavel back and we will put an end to Harry Reid's disastrous tenure as Senate Majority Leader!
In 2010, I nearly toppled an 8-term incumbent. Before last year, Congressman Mike McIntyre was rarely elected with anything less than 70%. I came within 7 points of defeating him. This time, I know that I will be successful, along with several other outstanding conservatives who are in close races. With a Romney-Thune ticket, our campaigns will only be strengthened!"


Romney will speak tomorrow.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on July 07, 2011, 03:30:35 pm
Good tl, and ftr it's been included in the Timeline Index. :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 08, 2011, 12:09:51 pm
^^^ Thanks!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 09, 2011, 03:44:31 pm
ROMNEY: WE'RE "AT THE CUSP OF A STRONGER COUNTRY"

(http://www.frumforum.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/romney-speech-300x187.jpg)

"Thank you Republicans! Thank you Florida! Thank you America!

My friends, today we stand here with two clear routes ahead of us. I don't have to tell any of you that, if we continue along our current road, our country will continue to grow weaker; it will continue to be subjected the mercy of a liberal philosophy that brought so many other countries to their knees. I promise to make bold, fresh changes if I am elected President. More than anything, our county needs a leader in the White House; a leader who wakes up every single day fighting for jobs.

...I know that even though America the most wealth and influence in the world, that is not where its greatness originates. America's greatness can be derived from our system of self-rule. A system that accounts for the free spirit of our people and demands that our government be accountable to the American people. Americans, every four years, you decide who will steer the ship of state as Commander-in-Chief. Though we all come from different backgrounds, we all believe in America. Tonight, I'm asking you believe in a new course for our country.

While we all share a common love for our country, I'd venture to say that we all share a common concern for our country. America is in peril; our people and institutions are being tested like never before.

In 2008, we elected someone with a clean slate, we wished him well, and hoped for the best. This time, we have more than empty slogans or rhetorical platitudes to judge Barack Obama by. He has failed America. When he took over, we were facing a recession. Since then, he has prolonged our nation's suffering and only exacerbated the economy's fall. The numbers speak for themselves: unemployment stands at 8.0% and roughly 13 million Americans don't have a job. Our families are being smothered by high food and gas prices. Our debt has climbed astronomically. This November, I'm counting on you, Americans, through our system on democracy to chart a new course.

...Let me be clear: A Romney Administration will stand up for the needs of our everyday, average Americans who work hard and play by rules. Because of the plans that I am proposing, under a my administration, you won't wonder whether your children will have a better life than you did; you'll know. This confidence for a better tomorrow is what binds us together as a people. I will work to ensure that every one in this great county will have a better days ahead.

To address our massive debt, I will cap federal spending at 20 percent or less of the GDP and finally, finally balance the budget. My generation will pass the torch to the next generation, not a bill. It is simply the right thing to do for our children.

I will insist that Washington learns to respect the Constitution. We will return responsibility and authority to the states for dozens of government programs -- and that begins with a complete repeal of Obamacare. From my first day in office, my No. 1 job will be to see that America once again is No. 1 in job creation. We must send more conservative, pragmatic values to Wasgington.

....America, we are on the cusp on a new day, a better tomorrow. I'm asking you to believe in it. With your vote, you will send a clear message to Washington and the world this fall!Thank you!




Romney's post-convention poll bounce:

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VXsPCj94XHM/Thi89luXu2I/AAAAAAAACn4/5KKlNiS9DSc/s1600/obamaromneypolls.png)


A few other notes:

I think I'll skip the Presidential debates for this TL...too much work and time! I'll do 1 more round of 538 predictions for President/Senate/House and then I'll start rolling out 2012 results!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 11, 2011, 12:33:34 pm
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6ZRLfym9plc/Thszu_rAQDI/AAAAAAAACoQ/sAijkuoBxyE/s1600/538logo.png)

DEMS HAVE 96% CHANCE OF RETAINING SENATE

Nate Silver/538.com-

"With President Obama in a close contest with Governor Romney, one assurance that Democrats will have going into election day is that they will likely keep the Senate. In fact, our models forecast a 96% that the Senate will stay in Democratic hands. Why is this the case? Well, Democrats have improved their standing in several pivotal races.

Essentially, the President's party is likely to pickup a trio of seats in the Northeast. In Connecticut, a seat which should probably have never been in GOP hands anyway, Linda McMahon remains an underdog to Rep. Jim Himes. Himes, despite running a generally poor campaign, is a 61.8% favorite to win.
In Massachusetts, Vicki Kennedy has built leads on Sen. Scott Brown in most recent polls; still, Mr. Brown is not one to be underestimated. Even so, Ms. Kennedy has keeps a 55% chance of winning.
Finally, in what could be the closest contest in the nation, former Governor Jon Corzine takes a slim lead over interim Senator Frank LoBiondo in New Jersey. While NJ is a blue state and will probably go for Obama by double-digits, LoBiondo, while in the House, consistently won a Democratic district by quite comfortable margins. We give Corzine only a 50.2% chance of winning to LoBiondo's 49.8%.

The other seat likely to flip from Republicans is that of Nevada. Democrat Dina Titus is a strong favorite to defeat tea party Republican Sharron Angle, a deeply flawed and highly controversial candidate. While Angle initially looked competitive, she has made a series of gaffes since she ousted Sen. John Ensign in the primary. Titus has a 89% chance of victory compared to Angle's 11%.

Other states where Democrats have improved include ND, OH and MO. Senator Kent Conrad, who has faced only one close race in his career, has pulled away from Governor Jack Dalrymple. Senator Sherrod Brown has moved past State AG Mary Taylor to become a slim favorite, at 58%. Finally, Senator Claire McCaskill has expanded her lead on challenger Sarah Steelman; she's up from a 57% chance of victory to 68%.

Republicans have had a lock on the open Nebraska seat ever since popular Governor Dave Heineman declared his candidacy.

In the closely-watched Utah race, we regard Senator Hatch as a slight favorite, with a 57% chance of victory to challenger Jason Chaffetz's 43%. Regardless of the outcome here, this Utah seat will nonetheless remain in the Republican caucus.

In conclusion, our forecast projects that, when all the electoral dust settles, Democrats will control 54 Senate seats to 46 for Republicans. If Republicans have a good night, they could control as many as 49 seats; conversely Democrats could end up controlling as many as 56 seats. While this is certainly good news for the President and Majority Leader Reid, the House is quite a different story...

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5-o64A77Im0/ThsyJrXB8oI/AAAAAAAACoA/psK_-6TXZbQ/s1600/538sen.png)

Projected Senate Election Results:

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AL2k4-RCCLs/ThsykE0JHAI/AAAAAAAACoI/CVljPfyr02A/s1600/538senfinal.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 11, 2011, 03:12:17 pm
Pretty good, though this scenario is obviously very pro-Democratic. ;) Keep it up!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 11, 2011, 04:15:49 pm
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6ZRLfym9plc/Thszu_rAQDI/AAAAAAAACoQ/sAijkuoBxyE/s1600/538logo.png)

GOP 85% LIKELY TO KEEP HOUSE

Our final House forecast, we can conjecture that the Republicans will hold onto the House by a 15-seat margin. Why are Democrats picking up so many seats? Well, after the 2010 elections, Republican nearly "maxed out" their number of winnable seats. After the census, many new seats, such as those in Texas, South Carolina, and Florida, went to the Republicans. Thus, the GOP was able to gain seats simply from redistricting. However, Democrats are still projected to defeat a number of GOP incumbents; this will neutralize and even reverse some of the gains Republicans made from redistricting (such as races in West Virginia and Montana).

(I'm not going to go through every single race; I'll cover the important races when I post the results!)

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lMFhrDtqjco/ThtnEmJZuaI/AAAAAAAACoY/eTMLj9TV8Wk/s1600/house113blank.png)

Democratic Gains [20] : (name of projected winner)
CA-03 (Bera) , WY-AL (Freudenthal), MT-AL (Schweitzer), CO-04 (Markey), MN-08 (Richard), WI-07 (Lassa), AR-02 (Halter), LA-05 (Jackson), FL-22(Frankel), FL-25(Garcia), WV-01 (Oliverio), WV-02 (Goodwin), NC-02 (Marshall), NJ-02 (Kiurkowski), NH-02(Kuster), IL-17(Hare), IL-08(Bean), IL-10 (Shayman), IL-14 (Foster), PA-07(Sestak)

Republican Gains [3]:
IA-03(Latham), IN-02 (Walorski), GA-02 (Keown)

OVERALL SEAT COUNT:
REPUBLICANS: 225
DEMOCRATS: 210


-For simplicity's sake, no newly created/eliminated seats are listed here (ex. TX-36, LA-07)

-Due to continuing lawsuits, the North Carolina Congressional districts will not change. Rather, a new court-drawn map will be in place for the 2014 cycle.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Ron DeSanchez on July 11, 2011, 04:20:03 pm



 FL-22

NOOOOO!




Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 11, 2011, 05:09:51 pm
excellent updates, miles!!



YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEES!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 11, 2011, 05:16:44 pm
I updated my last House 538 post so that the districts have projected winners...'should give some hints about the final result!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 12, 2011, 11:30:48 am
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6ZRLfym9plc/Thszu_rAQDI/AAAAAAAACoQ/sAijkuoBxyE/s1600/538logo.png)

CONTEST FOR PRESIDENT VERY CLOSE

"As we round out this election, our final forecast is about as close as it could be. The President clings to a bare 270 electoral votes, as he holds only a 2-point advantage over Governor Romney; quite a far cry from his 192-point blowout in 2008. Still, with the electoral math winding up this close, any swing state could tilt the balance towards either Obama or Romney. Based on our math, Obama's 'ceiling' would be around 339 electoral votes to Romney's 199; this would be similar to his 2008 scenario. Likewise, Romney's high-water mark would be 328 votes to Obama's 210. Both of these scenarios are unlikely, as they would require one candidate to sweep nearly every swing state.

Three states that have moved into play most recently are IA, MO and AR. While the Presidential candidates have limited appeal in these states, the Vice-Presidential candidates have campaigned there frequently. Obama has dispatched Mike Beebe to campaign in AR and MO, while Senator Thune has done well in making IA competitive. Our forecast shows Romney sweeping these states. His chances are 51.3% in IA, 53.2% in MO and 54.7% in AR. While Arkansans love Mike Beebe, Obama's place on the ticket is still keeping some Arkansans from voting for one of their own.

Still, if Mike Beebe doesn't help Obama chance's of carrying AR, he has helped Obama reach out to Independent voters; since choosing Beebe, Obama has gained over 10 points with them, essentially breaking even with Romney. Senator Thune has likewise helped shore-up conservative enthusiasm for Romney. Our popular vote projection has Obama winning by a close 50.3% to 48.8%.

Obama has also made modest progress in Nevada where he's up to a 53.1% chance of winning. During these last weeks, his campaign has tried, with some success, to tie Governor Romney to his party's Senate candidate, Sharron Angle, who most Nevada voters see as extreme or unelectable. Still, Romney's prowress in states such as PA, OH and FL, all which voted Democratic last cycle, should worry Obama.

All in all, Tuesday shouldn't be a boring election night!"

CHANCE OF WINNING:
OBAMA: 52.1% (270 EV)
ROMNEY: 47.9% (268 EV)  

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lKkCy1ugvlA/Thx2ivQMrxI/AAAAAAAACpA/EeWMSSkU7F8/s1600/538pres.png)

Projections for Competitive States:
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2UNDbSfjD1g/Thx0vAX2FGI/AAAAAAAACog/mLNwPCAJarI/s1600/compstates.png)

Home/ Favorite Son States
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-r_yCIDPUBRA/Thx0vARmxNI/AAAAAAAACoo/w9mP65cmoFc/s1600/homestates.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 12, 2011, 01:33:21 pm
O-B-A-M-A!!!!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Barnes on July 12, 2011, 07:46:45 pm
O-B-A-M-A!!!!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 12, 2011, 09:04:18 pm
R-O-M-N-E-Y!!!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 13, 2011, 05:07:44 am
R-O-M-N-E-Y!!!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 13, 2011, 09:00:22 am
O-B-A-M-A!!!!!
Two can play this game. :P


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: sentinel on July 13, 2011, 10:15:36 am
Bloomberg! >_>


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 13, 2011, 11:02:49 am
O-B-A-M-A!!!!!
Two can play this game. :P

Hahahaha...



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 13, 2011, 11:14:00 am
O-B-A-M-A!!!!!
;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 13, 2011, 02:36:09 pm
I'm glad everyone seems to be enthusiastic!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Ron DeSanchez on July 13, 2011, 02:39:21 pm
The reason I love this timeline is its attention to detail and realism.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: HST1948 on July 13, 2011, 03:01:23 pm
The reason I love this timeline is its attention to detail and realism.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 13, 2011, 05:51:29 pm
ELECTION NIGHT 2012

Some election night music!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwoRVxmmH0o

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3AUNtoy7718/Th4KdCt1ckI/AAAAAAAACpQ/HjdO2ChTQ6o/s1600/MADDOWMATTHEWS.png)

Rachel: Good evening America! Tonight is a night that will be apex of the intense 2012 campaign! I'm back with my colleague Chris Matthews in MSNBC election headquarters as we try to make sense of what will no doubt be a critical night in American history.

Chris: Thats right, Rachel. Tonight will be a very, very important night. Governor Romney has pulled within striking distance of the President. We'll have a roller-coaster of a Presidental race, maybe even as close as the 2000 election, plus a good number of Senate and House seats up for grabs.

Rachel: And well even have a good number of closely-watched Governor's and local elections to talk about as well. Tonight could fundamentally transform the direction of American politics for the next few years, even the next few decades; as policies and choices of tonight's winner, like Supreme Court nominees and fiscal polices, will have ramifications that will last well beyond the next few election cycles.

Chris: And Rachel, at 7:00 Eastern Time, it looks like we have our first batch of results in! These are from the state of Vermont. Vermont has become a Democratic stronghold and our numbers confirm this. In the Presidential race, Obama will easily be winning Vermont; its such a liberal state that not even a moderate Republican like Romney could crack 35% there anymore.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VBZfQhdXxrw/Th4OgxLlivI/AAAAAAAACpY/Ly4ByP-Mb4o/s1600/vt2012.png)

Rachel: And on top of Obama's 35-point win, we have 2 other Democratic winners. In the Governor's race, Peter Shumlin, who is best known for his efforts for a single-payer healthcare system, will be comfortably reelected over former Auditor Tom Salmon. With Shumlin's reelection, Vermont will have a single-payer system as early as next year.  
On the Senate side, there wasn't much action. Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders, among the Senate's strongest progressive voices, has no major party opposition and will get about 92%.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kpcxChsyN2o/Th4P4TwQBmI/AAAAAAAACpg/f3dr35qV8oU/s1600/vtpres.png)

Rachel: We also have most of the results from the Bluegrass State reporting. While Republicans have done poorly there at the state level recently, their Presidential candidates have done well. Tonight is no exception; it gives 8 electoral votes to Governor Romney. Romney will be carrying the state by about 13 points. These results from Kentucky are very similar to the last 2008 election, where Obama lost there by 16 to Senator McCain.

Chris: If Democrats want to build up there nationwide strategy, they have to stop permanently conceding these states like Kentucky. The Clintons have always done well there, Obama has done next to nothing there. I mean even in the local off-year election last year, Governor Beshear and the Democrats stomped the Republicans.

Rachel: But, lets not forget, while Kentucky may be a Democratic state, its still a conservative state. I think Obama's choice of Governor Beebe was an attempt to reach out to these centrist or conservative-minded Democrats who see Obama as too liberal. While Beebe may help Obama in other swing states, his dividends in Kentucky are fairly meager, as Obama only did slightly better there this year than in 2008.  Plus, a lot of voters in Appalachia see Obama as anti-coal and therefore anti-jobs.

Chris: Thats right. In these Appalachian states, coal is king. Still, I think with the right candidate, Kentucky could go back to the Democrats.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rtlcvAqw25M/Th4Qrs3P2QI/AAAAAAAACpo/6Zr4LONPL84/s1600/kypres.png)

Maddow: Moving just north, we have our first look at Indiana. Don't be fooled by Romney's wide 17-point lead. Only 42% of all ballots are counted; a good portion of the outstanding ballots will be coming from Democratic-leaning areas. Therefore, as of now, our official wording for the Presidential race here is that is "too early to call."

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-V0I3gVOR1Tw/Th4fIPyWjbI/AAAAAAAACp4/lkKXoRP0wOs/s1600/in2012early.png)

Chris: It looks like two other races from Indiana are all but over though. We do have most Senate and Governor's results out. Senator Dick Lugar, one of the great elder statesmen of Indiana, who narrowly pushed back a tea party challenge in the primary will cruise to another term in the Sanate. He will be winning by nearly 40 points over Democrat Jill Thompson. Also, the AP is also in the Governor's race. Congressman Mike Pence will defeat former Congressman Brad Ellsworth by about 8 points.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oW4d5iehDHc/Th4ewsdy_0I/AAAAAAAACpw/wjiXIOvvCE8/s1600/INSEN2012.png)

Rachel: Could Indiana set the tone for other vital industrial Midwest States? As we take a quick break, I would encourage our viewers to stay tuned. We will have full results from Indiana and many, many more races very soon!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 13, 2011, 07:38:10 pm
One nitpick - there is absolutely no way Ellsworth would beat Pence in Clay or Greene County. I know because that's where I live! :P Ellsworth would probably carry it if he won by a decent margin, but not losing by 8 points.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 13, 2011, 08:12:20 pm

you almost won. congratulations, "a person".

Now, let's be serious. Miles, this TL is incredible, perfect, simple to understand, easy to read, detailed... You've done a great job. Thanks, and congratulations!
Continue, please ;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 13, 2011, 09:46:15 pm
One nitpick - there is absolutely no way Ellsworth would beat Pence in Clay or Greene County. I know because that's where I live! :P Ellsworth would probably carry it if he won by a decent margin, but not losing by 8 points.

I had to give you something to call me out on ;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 13, 2011, 09:56:35 pm
One nitpick - there is absolutely no way Ellsworth would beat Pence in Clay or Greene County. I know because that's where I live! :P Ellsworth would probably carry it if he won by a decent margin, but not losing by 8 points.

I had to give you something to call me out on ;)
And here I was, being so nice and giving Landrieu a victory in my timeline...:(

*Runs to edit results*
;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on July 13, 2011, 10:11:48 pm
Great tl. Besides "go Romney", that's all I gotta say. Great tl.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: bore on July 14, 2011, 10:00:59 am

you almost won. congratulations, "a person".

Now, let's be serious. Miles, this TL is incredible, perfect, simple to understand, easy to read, detailed... You've done a great job. Thanks, and congratulations!
Continue, please ;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 14, 2011, 01:30:40 pm
IN TIGHTENS, GA CALLED, CLOSE HOUSE RACES

Rachel: Welcome back to our live election night coverage here on MSNBC. As my friend Chris and I try to sift through the returns we have so far, several important races for the House have come in since our break.

Chris: Thats right, Rachel. We have one more closely-watched race from Indiana. Congressman Joe Donnelly is in a real barn-burner of a rematch a against Jackie Walorski. Republicans were able to nab 2 Democratic seats in 2010 and take control of its House delegation, but they fell short against Donnelly up in the South Bend area. Looks like tonight the result will be just as close.
Also, as results from Georgia start to trickle in we have another House rematch, we'll actually have quite a few of these rematches because so many of the 2010 races were very close. Congressman Sanfors Bishop is clinging to a .7% lead over State Legislator Mike Keown. In the newly created Georgia 14th, former Athens mayor Heidi Davison is also deadlocked with State Senator Johnny Grant. Davison was a very popular mayor, but Grant has also been solidly reelected many times to the State Senate.
With 57% reporting in Indiana and 48% of Georgia in, we're not going to call any of these.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8sHrxXmVcwc/Th8oDgF801I/AAAAAAAACqY/rS55gVzDfj8/s1600/in02.png)

Rachel: And all three of those House races were impacted by the redistricting process. Donnelly's old district went for Obama by about 9 points; his new district would be very close to even. Clearly, the Republicans who control Indiana tried to weaken him and favor Walorksi. Donnelly has a base in South Bend which may ultimately deliver for him. Still, the district moved quite bit towards the Republicans.
In George, the 2nd district became only slightly more Republican. The real drama in Georgia was the new 14th. Republicans thought that if they created a new, swing district in eastern-central Georgia, they could weaken Congressman John Barrow, a Democrat in the neighboring 12th. So far, its looks like Barrow is still up double-digits, in fact, we didn't even feature his district as a race-to-watch.

Chris: Fascinating, fascinating stuff, this redistricting. Its just shows you how many forces at working driving the numbers in these House races. While we can't call either of those Congressional districts, we can call Georgia. With 52% of the Presidential ballots counted, the AP is calling Georgia for Romney. They project that its 16 votes will end up in the Republican column by about 8 points; overall, the President will be doing a little worse this year than he did in 2008.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VIwWh_Q09aM/Th8wM2QBtzI/AAAAAAAACqg/VTDg-qCuJAM/s1600/ga2012.png)

Rachel: Looking at what the numbers are implying, it seems that Obama's turnout in urban Atlanta was a few ticks under his 2008 performance. That could be a bad sign for Obama as well in for North Carolina, were he won in 2008 thanks to sky-high black turnout. The demographics pretty much fell into place. Obama beat Romney by almost 3-to-1 in Atlanta, while Romney trounced Obama in the northern suburbs and exurbs by about 40-50 points.
Georgia is gradually swinging towards the Democrats, but it will take a few election cycles until it is electoral votes are truly up for grabs.

Chris: We have more returns from Indiana. While Obama has chipped Romney's lead down to 8, 'looks like Romney is holding pretty steady. With 60% reporting, its seems unlikely that Obama pulls this out again.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JAsDq9vWf6Q/Th80wilzxQI/AAAAAAAACqo/gr4D0LFHn90/s1600/in2012early.png)


Rachel: IF we'll excuse us, we must take another break. So far, we have Romney leading Obama in the Electoral College 24-3, when all of Indiana s counted, that would put Romney up 35-3. Will the President be elected, or will America give the levers of power back to the Republicans? Stick around to find out!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 14, 2011, 04:12:13 pm
ROMNEY SOLIDIFIES IN; VA, SC, FL REPORT

Chris: Welcome back to our coverage in MSNBC. In what has been our first closely contest Presidential state, Indiana will be going to the Republicans. While Obama's 2008 win here was considered somewhat of a fluke by most Republicans operatives and strategists, the GOP nonetheless made sure that this state would not fall to Democrats once again. With 93% of votes counted, we can project that Indiana will fall to Romney by a margin of 52-47. While this margin isn't as bad as Bush's two landslides here, it nonetheless is a blow to Team Obama. This certainly is not good for Obama, who polls show is struggling in this region.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cAEFcn7IMcY/Th9Fhc6stiI/AAAAAAAACqw/k4VPMVow5iM/s1600/in2012.png)

Rachel: Here's more worrisome news for Democrats. The first House pickup of the evening will not be switching from Republican to Democratic hands, rather a Republican will be ousting a Democrat. In that close IN-02 race, the AP projects that Congressman Donnelly will not be able to overcome Walorski's lead. For him to win, there would need to be a catastrophic Republican collapse in St. Joseph and Starke counties. While Donnelly is underperforming in his new Republican counties,  Walorski is controlling the bleeding in the Democratic counties.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Uybz0MouwXU/Th9H2D70XGI/AAAAAAAACq4/YOI82BymItk/s1600/in02.png)
Chris: Very ironic that this seat would be one of the first to flip Republican; Donnelly was a bright spot for Democrats in 2010 in what was otherwise a horrendous night. We do have some good news from Virginia for Obama though. Obama's effort her was very strong and it looks to be paying off tonight. 54% of VA precincts are reporting and, based on where those precincts are coming from, Obama looks like he will ultimately retain the state's 13 electoral votes. The AP projects that when all the votes are counted, Obama will win by 51-47 in Virginia.
However, what is still very close is the colossal Senate race between former Governor Kaine and former Senator Allen. Kaine, of course, has always been a strong ally of the President, but even with 54% of votes in, Kaine looks to be underperforming. He only leads by less than 1 point half of a point.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HcnSLcC9xlU/Th9P2_ogXxI/AAAAAAAACrQ/fXXKe07aIpw/s1600/VApres.png)

Rachel: As for Virginia's Congressional seats, there's not much to see. All incumbents are slated to win, resulting in a continuing delegation of 8 Republicans and 3 Democrats.  This Virginia win gives the President a much-needed boost in the Electoral College; he now trails 35-16.

Chris: Actually, make that 44-16. South Carolina is reporting and we can put it in the GOP column. Romney wins its 9 votes by 12 points. Of course, Obama was strong in Charleston, Columbia and rural black areas, but he was blown out in the heavily conservative northern and eastern counties.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-V8EqMNZLZXU/Th9RuH_rPFI/AAAAAAAACrY/QgQYKdnCgFg/s1600/sc2012.png)

Rachel: We also have our first numbers from Florida rolling in. This race has the potential to keep us awake all night! With 42% of precincts in, Obama is up by just over a point. Now, I would caution anyone not to look too far into that number. Most of the panhandle counties have yet to report anything; of course these counties are very heavily Republican, so Romney will certainly get a boost there. The question is if Obama can cobble enough votes together in southern Florida to offset the panhandle counties.
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_1j47Ifq_Q0/Th9apsj7ZMI/AAAAAAAACro/ZWvZdCRG1a4/s1600/FLpres.png)

Chris: Going into another break, lets recap what we have. At 8:00, polls in many more states just closed. We'll have those results when we return.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-KCbUSxvN4V8/Th9YSHZ5F_I/AAAAAAAACrg/HyQniJuy6XY/s1600/2012night.png)

ROMNEY: 44
OBAMA: 16


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: bloombergforpresident on July 14, 2011, 05:39:16 pm
I love it!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 14, 2011, 08:30:19 pm
I love it!!

so do I... but I'm sad with that result in IN-2


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Ron DeSanchez on July 14, 2011, 09:07:43 pm
Im on the edge of my seat!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: redcommander on July 14, 2011, 09:09:21 pm
This is an amazing timeline. When can we expect another update?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 14, 2011, 09:49:15 pm
This is an amazing timeline. When can we expect another update?

I'll try to aim for a few updates per day.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Kevin on July 14, 2011, 10:32:01 pm
ROMNEY SOLIDIFIES IN; VA, SC, FL REPORT

Chris: Welcome back to our coverage in MSNBC. In what has been our first closely contest Presidential state, Indiana will be going to the Republicans. While Obama's 2008 win here was considered somewhat of a fluke by most Republicans operatives and strategists, the GOP nonetheless made sure that this state would not fall to Democrats once again. With 93% of votes counted, we can project that Indiana will fall to Romney by a margin of 52-47. While this margin isn't as bad as Bush's two landslides here, it nonetheless is a blow to Team Obama. This certainly is not good for Obama, who polls show is struggling in this region.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cAEFcn7IMcY/Th9Fhc6stiI/AAAAAAAACqw/k4VPMVow5iM/s1600/in2012.png)

Rachel: Here's more worrisome news for Democrats. The first House pickup of the evening will not be switching from Republican to Democratic hands, rather a Republican will be ousting a Democrat. In that close IN-02 race, the AP projects that Congressman Donnelly will not be able to overcome Walorski's lead. For him to win, there would need to be a catastrophic Republican collapse in St. Joseph and Starke counties. While Donnelly is underperforming in his new Republican counties,  Walorski is controlling the bleeding in the Democratic counties.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Uybz0MouwXU/Th9H2D70XGI/AAAAAAAACq4/YOI82BymItk/s1600/in02.png)
Chris: Very ironic that this seat would be one of the first to flip Republican; Donnelly was a bright spot for Democrats in 2010 in what was otherwise a horrendous night. We do have some good news from Virginia for Obama though. Obama's effort her was very strong and it looks to be paying off tonight. 54% of VA precincts are reporting and, based on where those precincts are coming from, Obama looks like he will ultimately retain the state's 13 electoral votes. The AP projects that when all the votes are counted, Obama will win by 51-47 in Virginia.
However, what is still very close is the colossal Senate race between former Governor Kaine and former Senator Allen. Kaine, of course, has always been a strong ally of the President, but even with 54% of votes in, Kaine looks to be underperforming. He only leads by less than 1 point half of a point.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HcnSLcC9xlU/Th9P2_ogXxI/AAAAAAAACrQ/fXXKe07aIpw/s1600/VApres.png)

Rachel: As for Virginia's Congressional seats, there's not much to see. All incumbents are slated to win, resulting in a continuing delegation of 8 Republicans and 3 Democrats.  This Virginia win gives the President a much-needed boost in the Electoral College; he now trails 35-16.

Chris: Actually, make that 44-16. South Carolina is reporting and we can put it in the GOP column. Romney wins its 9 votes by 12 points. Of course, Obama was strong in Charleston, Columbia and rural black areas, but he was blown out in the heavily conservative northern and eastern counties.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-V8EqMNZLZXU/Th9RuH_rPFI/AAAAAAAACrY/QgQYKdnCgFg/s1600/sc2012.png)

Rachel: We also have our first numbers from Florida rolling in. This race has the potential to keep us awake all night! With 42% of precincts in, Obama is up by just over a point. Now, I would caution anyone not to look too far into that number. Most of the panhandle counties have yet to report anything; of course these counties are very heavily Republican, so Romney will certainly get a boost there. The question is if Obama can cobble enough votes together in southern Florida to offset the panhandle counties.
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_1j47Ifq_Q0/Th9apsj7ZMI/AAAAAAAACro/ZWvZdCRG1a4/s1600/FLpres.png)

Chris: Going into another break, lets recap what we have. At 8:00, polls in many more states just closed. We'll have those results when we return.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-KCbUSxvN4V8/Th9YSHZ5F_I/AAAAAAAACrg/HyQniJuy6XY/s1600/2012night.png)

ROMNEY: 44
OBAMA: 16


Timeline looks very good so far!

However, no way would the VA Senate race be that close if both Loudoun and PW counties went to Kaine. Especially since Kaine would still have a window for even if he still lost those two since he did fairly well for a Democrat down state.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 14, 2011, 11:02:46 pm
Yeah, I'm not very familiar with Virginia politics :P


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 15, 2011, 05:24:03 pm
CRIST, WEST, GRAYSON ELECTED IN FL

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0dyV3gTIkV0/TiC8bp8eEJI/AAAAAAAACsA/9HE83A3QbNk/s1600/fl3.png)

Rachel: Going back to key state of Florida, we have a few other important non-Presidential races to call . Democrat Charlie Crist, whose making his third run for the US Senate, is finding that the third time really is a charm. Despite a very close race for President here, the former Governor will actually be defeating his former ally, Republican George LeMieux, fairly comfortably, by Florida standards. Floridians, will be sending Crist to the Senate by about 5 percentage points.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_Dbrib7bSz0/TiC9N4Jv3SI/AAAAAAAACsI/m5unOdt-4w0/s1600/flsen.pn)

Chris: Crist didn't have much room to win back in 2010. He was too liberal for Republicans, but he had to compete for Democratic votes as well. He was in a tough spot running as an Independent. Now, a true surprise tonight is that Congressman Allen West will be reelected. West's district stayed more or less the same after the Census. It now looks like he'lll be turning back a strong challenge from West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel. 'Another very harsh blow for Democrats as they try to retake the House. Still, West was a tea party favorite and he was able to raise a ton on money; that's probably what pushed him over the top tonight.  


Rachel: Well, don't forget Florida's 22nd is a rather competitive district, so West will probably still be vulnerable in future cycles. Still, an impressive performance by him tonight. Democrats also have a pickup in the 8th district. Alan Grayson, who may be the anti-Allen West, will be heading back to Congress. He defeated his 2008 opponent, Ric Keller. Granted, this district was made into a true Democratic-leaning seat during the redistricting process as its now virtually contained within Orlando, Grayson was also a great fundraiser and he had a motivated liberal base supporting him. So Florida, though a fairly centrist state, will be electing a pair of ideological opposites in Congressman West and Grayson!

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-wZ9gPGf6ieY/TiC8CEOXhMI/AAAAAAAACrw/vRDpdEvE4yM/s1600/FL22.png)


(Sorry guys, 'busy day. This was all I could get to. I'll work on more stuff tonight!)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Ron DeSanchez on July 15, 2011, 07:43:16 pm
Well Grayson is a small price to pay to keep Allen West---ugh--the fought of Frankel scares me. She was the 3rd pinhead ever mentioned in Bill O'Reillys infamous segment!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: HST1948 on July 15, 2011, 07:44:29 pm
This is fantastic! Keep it coming!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 16, 2011, 08:33:05 am
more updates, please!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 16, 2011, 03:45:42 pm
DE ROLLS IN, NJ STICKS WITH LOBIONDO, DEMS TAKE BACK MA

Chris: Rachel, it looks like our next batch of numbers will be from Delaware. Democrats have always done very well there and tonight, everything played out as expected. Democrats have swept all races at the top of Delaware ballot. Obama starts out strong with a 22-point blowout. His current VP, Joe Biden, a favorite son of Delaware, is slated to take over the State Department if Obama is reelected. Speaking of Joe Biden, his son, Beau, the current AG there, will be unanimously elected the state's next Governor, no one else even filed to challenge him! Beau is a very promising face in Democratic politics and I'm sure we'll be hearing more about him down the line.

Rachel: And don't forget, Delaware also had a Senate race. Governor Jack Markell, a very popular figure as well, will be defeating one of the most well-known candidates in the county, the infamous Christine O'Donnell, by nearly 50 points! Thats seat is being vacated by Senator Tom Carper. O'Donnell of course gave us much...interesting, odd and bizarre material to discuss on our shows! I wonder if she'll run again! In any case, Delaware's electoral votes are solidly with Obama; unfortunately for him, its only worth 3!

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CvYg-8F_ksg/TiHjCxtiljI/AAAAAAAACsQ/Rd3kzutbGDY/s1600/DE2012.png)

Chris: Next, we move just north to New Jersey. The real story here was the Special Senate election. Last year, Senator Frank Lautenberg had to resign due to his poor health; Governor Christie appointed Congressman Frank LoBiondo to that seat. Even though LoBiondo had held a Democratic-leaning seat for years, he was a prime target of the DSCC. Even so, it looks like LoBiondo will be keeping his Senate seat. He even got an outright majority. 'Pretty impressive.

Rachel: Yes, LoBiondo was one of the better campaigners of this cycle. It is worth noting though, that his opponent, former Governor Jon Corzine was a terrible candidate; his campaign was rather languid and he failed to really excite liberals. The good news for Democrats, though, is that they will get another crack at trying to unseat LoBiondo in 2014. They've learned tonight that they'd be better off running a fresh face against him than trying to bring back an old loser. We'll see who the DSCC comes up with.
It is also worth noting that to keep his seat, LoBiondo ran as one of the most liberal Republicans in the county. He voted with Democrats on many fiscal matters and he has taken stance contrary to his party's leadership on most environmental and social issues. Could he be prone to a tea party challenge in 2014? Very possible.

Chris: Very true. But there is something to be said for a Republican like LoBiondo winning this comfortably in a blue state. At the Presidential level, Obama carried the state by about 13 points, which was about what most pollsters had projected. In the other Senate seat, Senator Bob Menendez, who has always seemed to underperform, will be fending of Congressman John Runyan by about 5 points.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0q3eam1pc54/TiHmb6i-IAI/AAAAAAAACsY/bbk8rZ3wrY8/s1600/nj2012.png)

Rachel: We now have results from 2 southern states. A majority of precincts  from the states of Oklahoma and Alabama are in. Obama was never expected to even come close to winning either of these. Though his VP, Mike Beebe, did prove to have some appeal to rural white voters in these states; as Obama's margins are slightly better this time around than in 2008. Still, the 16 electoral votes are head to Romney's column.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4YPuem-9BDQ/TiHo2buwgJI/AAAAAAAACsg/qEVy2BSt_NA/s1600/AL2012.png)

Chris: We actually have one interesting race out of Oklahoma, even though Romney won in a landslide. In the 4th district, Congressman Tom Cole faced the closest contest of his career. Former Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins pulled within 6 points of the Congressman. Askins got a lot of help from former Governor Brad Henry, who still is very popular, but fell short. Still, for her to come this far in a ruby red district that gave Romney 65% of the vote is impressive. A rematch could very well be in the works for 2014.

Rachel: We can also call those 2 outstanding Georgia races for Democrats. This comes as much needed boost to House Democrats after they've lost Joe Donnelly and it looks like they'll fall short in their effort to take Senator LoBiondo's old House seat. Mayor Davison in the 14th and Congressman Bishop in the 2nd will be elected in Georgia.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cb7b0lUUjU8/TiHyhAjLgaI/AAAAAAAACso/dkKmz-tl-AE/s1600/OK4.png)

Chris: Now here's a race we've all been waiting for: the Massachusetts Senate contest. Scott Brown shocked the county by winning here in 2010 and Democrats have ever since been hell-bent on getting back Teddy Kennedy's seat. This was one of the most expensive races in the county; both the DSCC and the RSCC poured millions into this race. Well, Vicki Kennedy has unseated Senator Brown. Even though Senator Brown ran a great effort here, Obama was able to carry Kennedy over the finish line. Kennedy, in fact, won by a rather cushy 7 points. I still think we'll be hearing more from Mr. Brown though, he could be good position to run for Governor in 2014 (hint, hint!!). At the beginning of the campaign, some people were even trying to draft you into this race, Rachel!

Rachel: Thats right! I remember that! I'm quite happy with my job right here! I do think we'll be seeing more of Scott Brown though. He could even run for President, or he would be a promising VP choice. But for now, the Kennedy legacy is back in the Bay State. President Obama has carried this state as well. However, since this was Mitt Romney's home state, Obama has done worse her than in 2008, as he has carried Massachusetts' 11 electoral votes with less than 60% of the vote, as some ordinarily Democratic voters here crossed their ballots for their former Governor; Romney still had somewhat of a base left in the eastern portion of the state.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VOyCrwePDEc/TiH3LK3qtoI/AAAAAAAACsw/BT_XB7q2ddQ/s1600/Ma2012.png)

Chris: And with that, we'll take a quick break!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on July 16, 2011, 05:22:40 pm
Grayson! :D



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 16, 2011, 06:38:59 pm
Fantastic!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 17, 2011, 05:35:19 pm
Its really good. Please continue


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 17, 2011, 11:17:59 pm
I'll aim for an update Monday afternoon/evening.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 18, 2011, 10:31:04 pm

Rachel: We just now received our first results from the quintessential battleground state of Ohio. While these results will be exciting and nervewracking again, I would caution our viewers not to read very far into these numbers. Only 26% of the overall results are in; only 18% of the Cleveland area is in. Most of what we have comes from central Ohio. We only have about 16% of the Senate numbers in, so we'll hold off on that race.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-uNwBQ2MeetQ/TiTvX1_ddxI/AAAAAAAACtA/SOVTRtkzg0c/s1600/oh2012.png)

Chris: Very pivotal, Ohio. Very pivotal. Remember, no President since Jack Kennedy has won the White House without Ohio. Our final Ohio results will be a good indicator of the nation as whole. We just got results in from one state which isn't very close though: Maryland. Obama will be winning this Democratic stronghold by about 25 points. In the Senate race, freshman Ben Cardin will be winning in a similar landslide over former Governor Bob Ehrlich. Maryland will be sending Cardin back to the Senate by about 17 points. This is a huge blow to Republicans here; Ehrlich was about as strong as Republicans come in Maryland and the best he could do was lose by double-digits.

Rachel: Yes, Cardin began his Senate career 6 years ago by defeating Maryland's then Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele. That was before his RNC days! Ever since then, I've become pretty good friends with Mr. Steele! haha. And we have one House race here as well. Former Congressman Frank Kratovil will he headed back to the Beltway as he ousts tea party Republican Andy Harris. Harris was another target of redistricting; the Democrats who control Maryland made his district considerably more liberal. With Kratovil's margin of victory, about 6 points, there's no doubt that redistricting played heavily in his favor.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wHWwBq-Nn8s/TiTvYCiwnLI/AAAAAAAACtI/gFjqcGJsB4U/s1600/Md2012.png)

Chris: We now also have results reporting from New Hampshire. Its still close, but from what I can tell, Obama has a lot of ground to make up here. With 41% reporting, he trails Governor Romney by about 4 points. Some liberals still argue that New Hampshire was the state that hurt all Gore most back in 2000; had New Hampshire voted Democratic, like all its New England neighbors did, Gore would have won. But Romney invested a ton of money and resources here, especially in the early days of the campaign. That could very well be paying off tonight.

Rachel: Thats right. Even though its located in the Northeast, New Hampshire has a conservative streak. In the state's House races, we have mixed news for both parties. Democrat Ann Kuster will be knocking off Charlie Bass in the 2nd district. This district was among the biggest heart-breakers for Democrats back in 2010, as Bass won by the skin of his teeth.  However, since then, the electorate quickly soured on Bass and Kuster was able to capitalize on Bass' unpopularity. In the first district, Republican Frank Guinta holding off a challenge from Carroll Shea-Porter, a former Congresswoman. Shea-Porter was not as great as fundraiser or campaigner as Kuster, so that district will be staying red tonight. Governor John Lynch has also been soundly defeating tea party Republican Ovide Lamontagne. Lynch had already gone for a unprecedented 4th term in 2010. But, he has remained so popular that voters have elected him for a fifth time.  

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qndsRuTTfm0/TiT5e1GIBjI/AAAAAAAACt4/HVtSMTdU5M8/s1600/NHPRES.png)

Rachel: And now we have some of the Show-Me State in. Our initial returns show Romney with a lead of 2 points. Even though Missouri stayed GOP in 2008, Democrats dispatched Mike Beebe and Bill Clinton here to make the state competitive again. They campaigned in the southern and northwestern parts of the state trying to draw more rural-minded and centrist voters to their party’s ticket. Only 42% of votes are counted so far, so this could go either way very easily.

Chris: Yep. At first it looked like Obama was going to give up Missouri, but during the last month or so there, he did a lot of campaigner there with Mike Beebe and Senator McCaskill. Speaking of Senator McCaskill, the AP is calling the race in her favor. She’s leading with 52% of the vote and there seemed to be no real indication that Republican Sarah Steelman will be getting enough votes to take the lead. Steelman is currently standing at 44%. During most of the campaign, McCaskill tried to portray Steelman as something of a fringe candidate. In the Governor’s race, Democrat Jay Nixon will also be winning with 54% of the vote to 45% his Republican opponent, Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-65DYNQnnJ9o/TiTvYXTMo_I/AAAAAAAACtQ/ePy_enJoYQg/s1600/mo2012.png)

Chris: Moving one state to the northeast, we have results from the President's home state. Illinois will be giving Obama 60%. Not very surprising. Also, 4 new Democrats will be elected to Congress; this is also a result of the Democratic-led redistricting in Illinois. Democrats have won the 17th with Cheri Bustos, the 8th with Tammy Duckwork, Bill Foster makes a comeback in the 14th and Alexi Giannoulias ran in the 10th and won there. This flips the Illinois House delegation from 11-8 Republican to 12-6 Democratic. A very tough blow to Republicans. Asterisks on the map represent pickups.
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qd7FwqykHKI/TiTxhYoBKZI/AAAAAAAACtw/P6L5SzemnxY/s1600/IL2012.png)
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TgAdfsFNcVE/TiTwUujw1OI/AAAAAAAACtg/zpjW4NZ2G0Q/s1600/ILCONGRESS.png)
Rachel: Rounding out this batch of states will be Mississippi. President Obama and his running mate Mike Beebe also campaigned in the Delta area of this state. They also had help from Governor Gene Taylor. Even so, Governor Romney will be winning the state by about 11 points.
Chris: In the Senate race, incumbent Roger Wicker will also be winning by a similar 12 points against former Congressman Travis Childers. Back years ago, Mississippi sent some Democratic giants to the Senate, like John Stennis and Jim Eastland. Now it’s almost impossible for a Democrat to win there, even one as moderate as Childers.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GcSKgG1UE30/TiTwU59qjeI/AAAAAAAACto/XDF3R06JRlg/s1600/MS2012.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 18, 2011, 10:36:02 pm
In Missouri, how can some counties not be reporting for the Presidential race but have numbers for Senate and Governor?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 18, 2011, 10:56:58 pm
In Missouri, how can some counties not be reporting for the Presidential race but have numbers for Senate and Governor?

No reason, I just want to keep everyone guessing about the President race!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on July 18, 2011, 11:07:56 pm
Advice on PA: Given that Obama now has greater strength in Appalachia, he should win the state even though Romney will improve in the Philly suburbs and Central PA.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 18, 2011, 11:17:01 pm
Chris: Our first House snapshot shows Republicans with a lead over Democrats. Still, there are 318 races left to be tallied!:

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AYSw_bVmGUM/TiUDt9_yniI/AAAAAAAACuA/Yg0PAvxcJQ8/s1600/house113blankk.png)

REPUBLICANS: 68
DEMOCRATS: 49


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 19, 2011, 09:29:28 pm
318.

So NH, MO, and OH have not been called yet, right?

Sorry. Math error. I was up late posting that...

NH is called for Romney.

OH, MO and FL have not been called.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 20, 2011, 06:49:08 pm
update soon?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 20, 2011, 07:39:12 pm
update soon?

Sorry, I'm on a trip (as my avatar suggests).

I'll have one up soon.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 23, 2011, 10:51:34 pm
FOR DEMS, NEWS GOOD IN WV, MIXED IN ME

Chris: Welcome back to election night here on MSNBC! Now we're going to a state that Democrats have traditionally done well in: West Virginia. The Mountain State has been one of the most reliably Democratic states throughout the twentieth century, voting for both Carter twice and Dukakis, even though they both lost. But its seems recently Democrats have let this state slip away. Is that the case tonight Rachel?

Rachel:Well, yes and no Chris. Republicans will be holding onto the state's 6 Electoral Votes, but Democrats will be winning virtually every other important race here. With almost 90% of precincts in, Romney will win the state by about 11 points.
As far as the Senate race, Senator Joe Manchin, who was an extremely popular Governor, will be cruising past Republican John Raese in a rematch. Raese was a favorite tea party candidate of Sarah Palin, but he just couldn't beat Manchin. So, Robert Byrd's old seat will stay Democratic for at least the next 6 years.
In the Governor's race, acting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin will shock the nation by keeping his job. He was considered the underdog to Rep. Shelley Moore Capito for most of the race. Tomblin did run an excellent campaign and he had help on the trail from Senator Manchin and Former President Clinton, who was always popular in West Virginia.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NxZ3ctDdapM/Tit9qsXVgnI/AAAAAAAACuY/52KEn5cUDY8/s1600/WVpres.png)

Chris: We also have a trio of House races to report on. As you said, Democrats have made major gains here, especially in the House. West Virginia's House delegation will do a complete flip from 2-1 Republican to 3-0 Democratic. In the first district, State Senator Mike Oliverio ousts incumbent David McKinley, who won by 1400 votes in 2010. Looks like Manchin's strong coattails really put Oliverio over the top. In the 2nd district, former (interim) Senator Carte Goodwin flips Capito's open seat. Goodwin also had help from Bill Clinton. Goodwin will be defeating perennial GOP candidate Jay Wolfe. Finally, Nick Rahall, who has been representing the southern coal fields since the Carter days, goes without an opponent. Well, if Democrats are giving away West Virginia's electoral votes, at least they're keeping its Congressional delegation.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dKKxafVXZXg/Tit9qwLvlTI/AAAAAAAACug/MZqESBCmHok/s1600/WVCONGRESS.png)

Rachel: Moving up the north, we can report that the President is in a perilous situation in Maine. While Obama is ahead the cumulative total, we can report that Romney will likely be taking at least of one of the state's split electoral votes. The swingy 2nd district will be going to the Governor. However, Obama's margin in the other 1st district will afford him 3 of Main's 4 votes.

Chris: In the Senate race, we will see Senator Olympia Snowe back in Washington. Mainers have always been very independent people, as we have seen tonight. Senator Snowe ran as an Independent to avoid a tea party primary. As it turns out the Republican in the race, Andrew Ian Dodge, dropped out during the last few weeks due to some gaffes and campaign issues. Snowe will be defeating Democrat Hannah Pingree. Even though she lost tonight, Pingree could very well make a comeback.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FBzcRKtMwbo/TiuS3hNwfZI/AAAAAAAACuw/RoFtuD1Yku0/s1600/ME2012.png)



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on July 23, 2011, 11:16:41 pm
Interesting results in both states.

Not to nitpick, however, but I'd say Snowe would win by a much bigger margin without a Republican, and that given the context Obama would have a better shot at some of the little counties in WV; maybe switch Mingo or Nicholas to Obama.

But I probably am nitpicking. :P Excellent job on the timeline, and certainly better than any of my election nights. If those Maine numbers don't change, this could be a very suspenseful timeline (on par with that one between Obama and Palin)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 23, 2011, 11:34:04 pm
Why does it not surprise me Democrats are doing very well in West Virginia? :P


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 23, 2011, 11:59:08 pm
If those Maine numbers don't change, this could be a very suspenseful timeline (on par with that one between Obama and Palin)

Those were the final results in Maine; Romney took ME-02!

Is the suspense killing you yet!? lol

Why does it not surprise me Democrats are doing very well in West Virginia? :P

b/c West Virginia is a Democratic state ;)

Outside of Presidential elections, its as blue as Massachusetts or Maryland. The GOP bench simply sucks there.

As I said, I'm a southern Democrat with West Virginian heritage myself, so I kinda indulged myself there!

I know Mike Oliverio personally...I couldn't have him lose!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 24, 2011, 01:21:52 am
Why does it not surprise me Democrats are doing very well in West Virginia? :P

b/c West Virginia is a Democratic state ;)

Outside of Presidential elections, its as blue as Massachusetts or Maryland. The GOP bench simply sucks there.

As I said, I'm a southern Democrat with West Virginian heritage myself, so I kinda indulged myself there!

I know Mike Oliverio personally...I couldn't have him lose!

This is what I meant - Tomblin beating Ireland, while Democrats taking all House seats. :P You probably would have given Obama West Virginia too if not for the fact it's totally implausible. ;)

Good to see Goodwin back, though.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 24, 2011, 10:12:43 am
great!! but if romney is carrying one CD in maine, he may win this election...


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on July 26, 2011, 04:06:07 pm
I want to see Pennsylvania soon.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 27, 2011, 05:24:19 pm
Sorry everyone, I've had some pressing personal business I've had to attend to in the last few days.

I promise and update tomorrow.

@Snowstalker, I'll include PA results in my next update :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Ron DeSanchez on July 27, 2011, 10:06:57 pm
I just got back from Cresson, Pennsylvania. I wonder whats going on in the Altoona-Johnstown-Ebensburg area.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 28, 2011, 07:21:04 pm
Chris: Just pouring in are our first results from a state that is very near and dear to my own heart, Pennsylvania. We'll start with the Senate race. Senator Bob Casey, one of the leading moderate Democrats in the Senate, will easily be turning back a challenge from State Senator Joe Scarnati. The Casey's were always well regarded by Democrats, Republicans and Independents in the Keystone state; tonight, their legacy lives on as Bob Casey is reelected by 14 points even though President Obama has been on shaky ground in Pennsylvania. We only have 67%of the state reporting, so these vote tallies are by no means final, but we can, again, project that Casey will be winning this. The Presidential race is another story. Our returns show both candidates locked in a close race with Obama clinging to a 2.5-point lead. We'll see of that holds up.

Rachel: And other than those two contests, only 1 House seat is projected to flip hands. Thanks to GOP control of redistricting, all Republicans will be holding on except Pat Meehan in the 7th district. Meehan will be losing to Admiral Joe Sestak, who held that seat before he ran for Senate. Sestak outperformed most Democrats there in 2010, but still narrowly lost. Now he's headed back to Congress. Overall, the House delegation from Pennsylvania stays Republican by an 11 to 7 margin.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-U5AvKZvbJCg/TjH8wbF-86I/AAAAAAAACv4/3b3UdNH3N-c/s1600/pa2012.png)

Chris: Now here's one result that isn't surprising in the least Obama will be carrying D.C by 84 points! No electoral votes are safer for Democrats than the 3 from D.C.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-eBQwNjXc78w/TjH7Zs1G6pI/AAAAAAAACvo/cn-jKRFrguY/s1600/DC.png)
Rachel: Moving to Michigan, we also have good news for team Obama. Despite Romney's roots here, we can still project 16 more votes for Obama. No doubt, the auto bailouts were most appreciated here. Now, GM and Chrysler have picked up with steady profits and the economy in Michigan has accordingly begun to significantly improve; Obama's adds there hammered away at that. In the Senate race, we can also report that Senator Debbie Stabenow will be returning to Washington; her challenger was Republican Pete Hoekstra. As for the Congressional delegation, again due to the Republican-drawn lines, the GOP will at least have a healthy 9 to 5 edge over Democrats.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-PTkuyUvGtwA/TjH5-4kPZSI/AAAAAAAACvY/YzkUl4sjv3k/s1600/MI2012.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on July 28, 2011, 07:25:18 pm
Tip on PA: The final results, given Obama's slightly improved rural appeal, should give him at least the 2004 Kerry>2008 McCain counties, plus Greene. I may be also tempted to suggest giving Chester, Berks, and Dauphin to Romney. Romney would also likely improve rather than do worse in Delaware and Montgomery counties.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 28, 2011, 08:18:18 pm
Tip on PA: The final results, given Obama's slightly improved rural appeal, should give him at least the 2004 Kerry>2008 McCain counties, plus Greene. I may be also tempted to suggest giving Chester, Berks, and Dauphin to Romney. Romney would also likely improve rather than do worse in Delaware and Montgomery counties.

Thanks!

As I said, all the results aren't in yet! ;)

Also, if anyone else would like to give me tips about their respective states, feel welcomed. Electoral insights from locals are appreciated!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 28, 2011, 09:35:47 pm
Tip on PA: The final results, given Obama's slightly improved rural appeal, should give him at least the 2004 Kerry>2008 McCain counties, plus Greene. I may be also tempted to suggest giving Chester, Berks, and Dauphin to Romney. Romney would also likely improve rather than do worse in Delaware and Montgomery counties.

Thanks!

As I said, all the results aren't in yet! ;)

Also, if anyone else would like to give me tips about their respective states, feel welcomed. Electoral insights from locals are appreciated!
I tried to give you my insight on Indiana, but of course, you jacked it up, giving Clay to Ellsworth. Geesh...:P


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on July 28, 2011, 09:46:42 pm
Not doubting the results in my home county (Lancaster).


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 28, 2011, 09:58:53 pm
Tip on PA: The final results, given Obama's slightly improved rural appeal, should give him at least the 2004 Kerry>2008 McCain counties, plus Greene. I may be also tempted to suggest giving Chester, Berks, and Dauphin to Romney. Romney would also likely improve rather than do worse in Delaware and Montgomery counties.

Thanks!

As I said, all the results aren't in yet! ;)

Also, if anyone else would like to give me tips about their respective states, feel welcomed. Electoral insights from locals are appreciated!
I tried to give you my insight on Indiana, but of course, you jacked it up, giving Clay to Ellsworth. Geesh...:P

Well, its in his district so I though he'd do pretty well there.

But you have been helpful throughout this TL, tmthforu. ;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 29, 2011, 05:49:28 am
Thanks, Miles. I hope you update this soon ;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 30, 2011, 02:25:02 pm
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-J7ZH8v-CqmA/TjRWHc24qlI/AAAAAAAACwo/ydWtSZ8ZBGg/s1600/maddowmatthews.png)

Rachel: Next we have results from deeply blue Connecticut. While Romney did try to contest this state more than George Bush or John McCain, Obama will still be winning here. That said, the President's margin will not be as large as his 2008 blowout. Also, the President has carried Democrat Jim Himes well over the line in the Senate race. He will be defeating Linda McMahon to flip Joe Lieberman's seat. For most of the cycle, this was considered a likely Democratic pickup, as virtually any Republican would lose here in a Presidential year. Even though McMahon ousted Lieberman in the primary, she was not able to gain any substantial momentum in the general election. Connecticut voters will also be keeping their all-Democratic Congressional delegation.
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BHiJzPtj9sM/TjRUv5MErWI/AAAAAAAACwA/PUDCoZv55D0/s1600/ct2012.png)

Chris: Now we have results from a state on the opposite side of the spectrum: Texas. Here we have 38 votes solidly in Governor Romney's column. Despite the growing Hispanic population here, Democrats are still struggling there. Tonight, the President will lose Texas by 12 or 13 points.
We'll also be seeing another Bush in Washington! Barbara P. Bush, the daughter of George W. Bush, will be elected in a landslide against Democrat Kinky Friedman. This was for the seat being vacated by Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. Hutchison was an early supporter of Bush. In January, Bush will break the record for the youngest women sworn into Congress; she'll only be 31, the previous record, 38, is held by Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, right next door. I can surely see Barbara Bush as a rising star within the party and she could be the one to revive the Bush brand.

Rachel: That's right, Chris, we'll definitely be following Senator Bush throughout her Senate career. Through tonight's Senate races, we've seen the reemergence of two political dynasties. Vicki Kennedy brings the Kennedy legacy back to Washington with her win in Massachusetts and now Barbara Bush in Texas.
Whats amazing about Bush is that she was able to win with well over 60% of the vote! She got a significant amount of crossover support from Democrats, over 20% of Obama voters crossed their ballots for her. So, she can definitely win support from both parties and we could see here become a leading moderate within the Senate.
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XnWP8xvI7zk/TjRUwMxuMmI/AAAAAAAACwI/FmrhDgS6q5A/s1600/TX2012.png)

Chris: Moving a few states eastward, we have results from Tennessee. While the state's 11 votes will be going to Governor Romney, the real drama here was in the Senate race. If you remember, Senator Bob Corker was a top target of the tea party; accordingly, he was ousted in a crazy 4-way primary. The Republican, Congressman Zach Wamp, went on to face Democratic Congressman Bart Gordon in the general. Wamp was seen as somewhat extreme and had a number of gaffes on the campaign trail; he also had trouble consolidating the Republican vote after the primary. Gorder, by contrast, ran a well-oiled campaign operation. Gordon had former Governor Phil Bredesen, a very popular figure, do campaign ads for him and he also had help from Governor Beebe. Tonight, Gordon win by running up the margins in his very Republican-leaning district and doing well in the Delta counties as well as Middle Tennessee.  The Republicans however, will have keep their very solid 7-2 advantage in the state's House delegation.

Rachel: Still, while Democrats have won this seat, there's no doubt that they will not have Senator Gordon's vote on a number of key issues. In the campaign, he ran far to the right of most Democrats and took stances firmly against legislation such as the President's healthcare plan and most of his environmental policies. While Gordon cast Wamp as an extremist, he made it clear that he himself was no liberal.
As for the Presidential race, outside of slightly improved Democratic margins in Memphis and Nashville, this is a solid GOP win. Tennessee has been trending the Republicans way since the Clinton days; now, almost no Democratic Presidential candidate could win there now.
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aIxGtHW4Zsk/TjRVewVsDfI/AAAAAAAACwQ/NBOxtj5Stzo/s1600/TNPRES.png)

Chris: We have a few more Senate calls to make! This will come as both good news and bad news for both parties! In Virginia, former Governor Tim Kaine will be elected to the Senate over former Senator George Allen. Obama's strong campaign effort also gave Kaine a boost both in polls and in terms of turnout. The Virginia results aren't final, but the AP does project that Allen will not get enough votes to surpass Kaine's lead.
In Ohio, we can project that Senator Sherrod Brown will be losing his seat to AG Mary Taylor. This comes as a huge blow to liberals; Brown was a great hero to progressives. Taylor tried to portray Brown as too liberal and out of touch with Ohio. Senator Brown rode in on the 2006 wave, but many of the factors that helped him back then were working against him this time around.

Rachel: We knew that the Ohio race was going to be close. Whats interesting is that, if you look at the polls, on the local level, Ohioans dislike both parties right now; the strongly Republican Legislature is deeply unpopular, but Governor Ted Strickland only has a 40% approval rating himself. Of course, this does not bode will for the President; still, the Presidential race is too close to call in Ohio.
Who knew that BOTH Senator Browns would lose tonight! Both Scott Brown and Sherrod Brown will not be returning to Congress!
Sherrod Brown did well in the northeastern region, and around his old district, but Taylor invested heavily in southern and western portions of the state. Those regions are delivering for her tonight.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-eZaiw-u_SEY/TjRVfPM1rcI/AAAAAAAACwY/5KwgfCwUuEg/s1600/VASEN.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 30, 2011, 03:05:25 pm
Strange Results - GOP wins Ohio but can't win Tennessee or Virginia.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 30, 2011, 03:45:07 pm
Chris: Now lets take another look at our updated cumulative maps:

PRESIDENT
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dwfAxUSfNGo/TjRsjMUwVEI/AAAAAAAACxY/VCkEV1V2oSY/s1600/2012night.png)
ROMNEY- 125
OBAMA- 103


SENATE

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-s6QjkpP24Xw/TjRsjLfBPII/AAAAAAAACxg/kOc88VT7YPM/s1600/538sen.png)

NET CHANGE: D+2

U.S HOUSE
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Kerxk9enEHM/TjRpSwzE3kI/AAAAAAAACxA/w_Cned8nv_I/s1600/house113blankk.png)
REPUBLICANS: 136
DEMOCRATS: 113


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: GLPman on July 30, 2011, 05:19:52 pm
I love the format that you're using for the election. Can't wait to see more results.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 30, 2011, 06:36:00 pm
more, please!

It's a pitty Sherrod lost... Bart Gordon will be a DINO, while sherrod was a reliable liberal vote in the senate... hopefully, this TL ends with a  slim Obama victory and more dems. in the house and senate ;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: redcommander on July 30, 2011, 06:53:07 pm
I can't wait for the California results! :D


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 30, 2011, 07:09:55 pm
more, please!
 hopefully, this TL ends with a  slim Obama victory and more dems.

the TL won't end until 2020! :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 31, 2011, 01:33:50 am
more, please!
 hopefully, this TL ends with a  slim Obama victory and more dems.

the TL won't end until 2020! :)

good to know =)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 31, 2011, 04:05:55 pm
Rachel: Welcome back yet again to our live 2012 Election Night coverage here on MSNBC! We hope you'll stay with us as we have another hefty batch of results pouring in from states all across the country. Interestingly enough, we start in the smallest state in the Union, Rhode Island. Despite the President's slight decline in the neighboring states of Connecticut and Massachusetts, he will still be getting above 60% of the vote in Rhode Island, as it has become one of the bluest states in the county. Other than the President's 23-point win here, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse will be going back to the Senate for his sophomore term; he defeated Republican John Robatille by an even more impressive 28 points.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-f9sD2u1b7oo/TjXCbfIqYrI/AAAAAAAACxw/EQpspsLhLu0/s1600/R12012.png)

Chris: Now lets go to New York. The President will be winning by 20 points, not surprising. Still, he'll be falling just shy of that 60% mark. In the Senate race, Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand will be falling just short of 70%. She'll be defeating Republican Karl Paladino by a whopping 41 points! Gillibrand will be another possible Presidential candidate who we'll probably hearing more from in the future. Looks like each party will be losing a House seat here due to redistricting. Governor Cuomo made a point of redistricting in as bi-partisan a way as possible, so neither party will be making gains. The House delegation will be 21 Democrats to 6 Republicans.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LUEGo9LA33Q/TjXCoF9IQAI/AAAAAAAACx4/jn_OA3_vg-Q/s1600/NY2012.png)

Rachel: With these next two calls, we have good news for Governor Romney. Kansas, as everyone was predicting, will add 6 more electoral votes to his total. The result there was very similar to that of 2008, with Romney winning by 16 points.
However, the news that Republicans should be celebrating is this: the AP has just called Ohio for Governor Romney! Even as Cleveland precincts came in, there was no indication that the President would get enough turnout to pass the Governor. Again, the AP projects that by eight-tenths of a point, Ohio will ultimately be going Republican this year. Our numbers are showing that it was the Independent voters who really hurt the President.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Z6eKtP0bBl0/TjXJarDKMvI/AAAAAAAACyQ/j2pUsQblSko/s1600/KS2012.png)

Chris: That's a very harsh blow to the President. With Pennsylvania and Florida still up in the air, the President can't be feeling very good right now. In New Mexico, the story is different. New Mexicans will be giving 5 electoral votes to the President again. In the Senate race, Congressman Ben Ray Lujan, the keynote speaker at the DNC a few months ago, holds Senator Jeff Bingaman's seat for Democrats against Republican Pete Domenici Jr.
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-nY3Eg54vIs8/TjXDCx0ThBI/AAAAAAAACyI/YmW3HPhgN-Y/s1600/nm2012.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on July 31, 2011, 04:17:28 pm
If Romney's winning Ohio, he'd do better in the counties. I'd hand him Cincinnati, at least, and maybe give Obama a couple counties in SE Ohio.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 31, 2011, 04:26:13 pm
Good update, though one little thing - no way would Obama win Riley County in Kansas. ;) Not even LBJ could win it in `64.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on July 31, 2011, 04:35:26 pm
If Romney's winning Ohio, he'd do better in the counties. I'd hand him Cincinnati, at least, and maybe give Obama a couple counties in SE Ohio.

Modified.

I ran up Romney's margins in western OH and gave him Hamilton County.

 
Good update, though one little thing - no way would Obama win Riley County in Kansas. ;) Not even LBJ could win it in `64.

Ok.

Well, Riley is one of the dozen or so counties in KS that are actually trending Democrat. I thought I'd get creative and trade Crawford for Riley. I'll go back later and fix that.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 31, 2011, 08:51:45 pm
I noticed I've been nitpicking a lot. :P Just so you know, AMAZING JOB, Miles! :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on August 01, 2011, 06:27:32 pm
One more thing--Romney would probably win Colfax and Hidalgo counties in NM if he halves Obama's margin in the state.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 04, 2011, 06:32:54 pm
Chris: Following pretty iffy news for the President out of Ohio, we do have some good news for him. In Wisconsin, which was the epicenter of American politics for most of 2011, he has performed well. He will be carrying the 10 electoral votes associated with Wisconsin. There was a lot of liberal energy here left over from the 2011 recall elections, in fact, Governor Scott Walker will likely face a recall election himself next year. Walker has really helped in closing the Democratic "enthusiasm gap" that was so prominent in Wisconsin during the 2010 cycle.
In fact, one of the victims of the enthusiasm gap, Senator Russ Feingold will be headed back to the Senate after losing 2 years ago; he defeated Freshman House Republican Sean Duffy. Of course, Feingold was one of the foremost progressives while he was in the Senate. Some speculated that Feingold would challenge Walker in the recall election next year, but he opted to run for Senate again. The President will be taking 52% of the vote here and Senator Feingold has captured 53%. Feingold said that his top priority when he returns to Congress will be trying to find legislative and Congressional means of deterring the Citizens United case and its ramifications.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Q5RUODngxHs/Tjsqq_GNLKI/AAAAAAAACyg/66jAbADV7hQ/s1600/WIPRES.png)

Rachel: We also have some good news for Republicans. In Louisiana, we have a sound GOP victory. The Governor will add 8 more electoral votes to his tally. We can project that he will be winning Louisiana by 18 points. The President marginally improved on his 2008 performance, but nonetheless, Louisiana is aggressively moving towards Republicans these days.
An interesting fact about Louisiana, in the exit polls, surveyors asked whether the President's race would make voters less likely to vote for him; the state with the highest "yes" response rate was Louisiana.

Looking at the electoral landscape of Louisiana tonight, if I were Senator Mary Landrieu, I'd be feeling very cautious right now. Even though she isn'y up for election this year, Senator Landrieu, the last remaining statewide Democrat in Louisiana, will have to cast her votes very carefully if she wants to be reelected in 2 years.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9rQjNCr-7RY/Tjsq_X1ouFI/AAAAAAAACyw/E6Wk0Q8qbiM/s1600/la2012.png)

Chris: Yep, the Louisiana Democrats were always the most conservative Democrats. From what I've seen, Mary Landrieu knows how to frame herself to win in this conservative state. Moving to Arkansas, we have a very close race. Arkansas, of course, is the home of Obama's running-mate Governor Mike Beebe. Despite the state's recent Republican resurgence, Team Obama seriously contested this state. As of now, its too close to call.
What we seem to have is a classic Arkansas tossup scenario; the Delta region and most of the south went for the Democrat, while the north and west have gone Republican.
This could be very close. Its worth noting that in some Delta counties, Obama has broken 70%; that's because Beebe was born and raised in that region. The coalitions that each side builds in Arkansas will be interesting to watch. Right now, Governor Romney holds a very slight advantage.

Rachel: Well, even if Democrats don't win statewide, they have picked up one Congressional seat. In the reconfigured 2nd district, former Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter will oust incumbent Tim Griffin. Halter became well known for challenging Senator Blanche Lincoln in 2010, but narrowly losing. Lincoln went on narrowly retain her seat. The redistricting process also gave Halter an advantage; Democratic Little Rock was paired with heavily Democratic Pine Bluff, while most of the other smaller counties were largely Republican; this turned a Republican-leaning district into a relatively swingy seat. 
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YQhUebGPHDQ/Tjsq_R-nMmI/AAAAAAAACy4/LtjTVESh0Y4/s1600/AR2012.png)
Chris: Now for another state that is similar to Wisconsin. The President has won Minnesota again. His performance will expectantly be weaker than last time around, but the AP maintains that he will be taking almost 52% to Romney's 46%. Also, like New Jersey, Minnesota is a state where we have 2 Senate races. In the regular election, Senator Amy Klobuchar, who is one of the most popular members of Congress, sweeps every county against Republican Theresea Collette. The Special election was more interesting though. Interim Senator Betty McCollum wins over former Senator Norm Coleman. However, McCollum, like Senator Frank LoBiondo in New Jersey, will be up again in 2014.
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-46Su0XosdA4/TjsrnB2Y03I/AAAAAAAACzI/GbvEUF2lWLU/s1600/MNPRES.png)
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ERON4Jc0hgc/TjsqrN0Ba-I/AAAAAAAACyo/BrLGwwlu_Xg/s1600/mn2012.png)
Rachel: And remember Congressman Chip Cravaack, the keynote speaker at this year's RNC? Well, he will be losing tonight. Cravaack seat was a top target of the DSCC. The new Congressman for Minnesota's 8th with be Democrat Bill Richard. Richard was the Chief of Staff for Rep. Jim Oberstar, a longtime Congressman from that district.

Chris: Finally, we can close this batch with Nebraska. While the President managed to snag the state's 2nd Congressional district, he will have no such luck tonight. Governor Romney will be taking all 5 electoral votes from Nebraska. We can also report a Senate seat takeover. For the seat being vacated by Democrat Ben Nelson, Governor Dave Heineman will soundly be elected to the Senate against Democrat Mike Meister. Heinaman was a strong and early support of Mitt Romney.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-FTUCa3ZYY8E/Tjsq_2aW7VI/AAAAAAAACzA/iW003-F9Nhg/s1600/NE2012.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on August 04, 2011, 06:45:39 pm
*breathes in*...FEINGOLD!!! :D

I'm working towards election night 2016 (Romney vs. Feingold) in my timeline.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: mondale84 on August 04, 2011, 07:44:17 pm
I didn't remember that Blanche Lincoln won...

...well, I'm just going to toe the party line and say: I LOVE BLANCHE LINCOLN


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: HST1948 on August 04, 2011, 08:17:44 pm
This is one of the best TL's I have read! Can't wait to see the final results! :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 08, 2011, 10:15:03 am
'Working on an update for later today!

I'll have results from NC, AZ, WY and an official AP call for PA.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 08, 2011, 10:30:36 am
Here's another cumulative Presidential map.

Obama and Romney are only 1 electoral vote apart!!!!! (and no, I actually didn't plan that!)

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/2012night.png)

ROMNEY- 162
OBAMA- 161


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on August 08, 2011, 10:45:59 am
Hey, I'd like to see South Dakota, especially the Congressional race (it's Sandlin, right?)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 08, 2011, 01:58:35 pm
Hey, I'd like to see South Dakota, especially the Congressional race (it's Sandlin, right?)

Nah, Noem is cruisin'


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 08, 2011, 02:29:09 pm
Hey, I'd like to see South Dakota, especially the Congressional race (it's Sandlin, right?)

Nah, Noem is cruisin'
:D


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 08, 2011, 06:09:55 pm
The update will be later tonight....about 11-midnight-ish.

'Miles


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 08, 2011, 10:40:05 pm
'Working on an update for later today tomorrow!

I'll have results from NC, AZ, WY and an official AP call for PA.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 09, 2011, 02:59:04 pm
Rachel: We now have a most...epic...batch of returns to report here at MSNBC Election Night. Perhaps no swing state was contested by the Obama team than North Carolina. While Obama did invest heavily here, and he even selected Charlotte for the DNC, the economic recovery in North Carolina has been languid, benefiting Romney. Our initial returns, with 48% of ballots counted, shows the candidates locked in an expectedly narrow race. Governor Romney is clinging to a razor-thin 49.5% to the President's 49.1%. Back in 2008, it actually took a few days to accurately call North Carolina; that might be the case again with the contest this close.

Chris: While the race for President got a lot of attention, we do have some important local results. Remember Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory lost the Republican nomination for Governor to former Congressman Robin Hayes!? Hayes ran as a tea party-backed alternate to the more moderate McCrory. Well, Democrats were smiling back then and they're smiling now; by giving the nomination to a less electable candidate, Republicans essentially handed Governor Perdue victory. Governor Perdue will be defeating Robin Hayes. Amazing that, even last year, most pundits were writing her off against McCrory.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-wVv5w0fhGX0/TkGOaJV62ZI/AAAAAAAACzw/-OFw-tx5TQw/s1600/nc2012.png)

Rachel: In fact, we have exit polls showing that McCrory would have won! This just shows how important primaries are! In the Congressional arena, Democrats could be running on borrowed time. Due to extensive court battles and legal paralysis, the current map will be used for one more cycle. For the 2014 cycle, a map drawn by the courts will be implemented. It is worth noting that that the current map was drawn to favor Democrats; a court-drawn map could endanger as many as 3 Democrats.
But for now, Democrats will actually gain a seat in North Carolina's delegation. We start in the 7th district, which is nestled in the southeastern corner of the state. This is actually another rematch. Ilario Pantano was a key speaker at the RNC; however he will be falling short again against Congressman Mike McIntyre. He'll be holding McIntyre under 60%, but still losing by about 18 points.

Chris: We also had a closely-watched race in the 2nd district. Republican Renee Ellmers was swept ashore in the 2010 GOP wave. However, tonight, she has been soundly beaten by Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, a resident of Harnett county. Renee Ellmers was always a controversial figure in the district and was a prime target of Democrats.

Rachel: Finally, in the 8th Congressman Larry Kissell has won against State Senator Bob Rucho. Kissell initially planned to run for Secretary of State, but announced he would run for Congress again when it was announced that the map would not change this year. Rucho campaigned strongly in Cabarrus and Stanly counties, but was blown away elsewhere inthe district.  (and no, Rucho doesn't actually live in the district he ran in, but neither does Virginia Foxx)

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4XJ9l881AZI/TkGOaMSJQ8I/AAAAAAAACz4/cY5TDWVsIXE/s1600/NCcongress.png)

Chris: Well, no telling how late we could up waiting for a Presidential  winner in North Carolina. One state where we do have winners is Arizona. If Arizona hadn't been McCain's home state, Obama might well have carried it in 2008. Tonight, it stays Republican; Romney actually improved on McCain's margin. In the Senate race, Arizona will be sending Senator Jon Kyl back to Congress for 6 more years over AG Terry Goddard. Even though Kyl had a few gaffes, he will nonetheless be winning by about 6 points.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-b9lgBk_5hpE/TkGPguXaCFI/AAAAAAAAC0Q/eFvD02spYU4/s1600/NE2012.png)

We only have 1 high-profile Congressional race here. Former Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick narrowly bests Congressman Paul Gosar to return to Congress. Democrats tried to portray Gosar as a fringe candidate; Gosar did have to take some tough votes in the House, like the Ryan Budget, that Kirkpatrick used against him. Congresswoman Gabby Giffords will be going unopposed while Arizona's new 9th district will be going Republican (sorry, I did't know any good candidates :P)
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dWTEA68r6_w/TkGO_AYcKBI/AAAAAAAAC0A/RIvXAjayw1w/s1600/az01.png)

Rachel: Now lets go Wyoming. At the top of ticket, Republicans dominated. Governor Romney will be carrying the state 2-to-1. Senator John Barasso had no major opponent. What is truly historic about Wyoming tonight is the Congressional contest. Former Governor Dave Freudnethal, who remains extremely popular, will he knocking off Congresswoman Cynthia Lummis.
Fruedenthal, despite his party affiliation, trounced Lummis with Independents, winning them 64-34, and he got roughly a third of the Republican vote, while still keeping over 90% of Democrats. That kind of crossover support is very impressive, especially in a state like Wyoming.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xHQ7oHsw4z8/TkGPhJ3GnlI/AAAAAAAAC0Y/JnF3uq_a004/s1600/wy2012.png)
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TtWNVCgOWxM/TkGPhHRgpeI/AAAAAAAAC0g/zoJ2YbZet2c/s1600/WYAL.png)

Chris: A very, very impressive feat for Freudenthal. You know, the last time that Wyoming had a Democrat the House was 35 years ago! This was a truly groundbreaking election there.

Rachel: We can finally call Pennsylvania. Despite the slow economic recovery here, the President will be retaining. I think what we're seeing here is the result of an extraordinary effort by the Obama campaign to get the vote out in the Keystone state. While the President isn't out of the woods yet, this gives him a much-needed boost. Our county-level results aren't 100% accurate, but they're fairly close; again, the AP is calling the Keystone state for the President by about 51-48.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-A5mdWaQxdcU/TkGQDHJX11I/AAAAAAAAC0o/9Mkocbklq8k/s1600/PApres.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on August 09, 2011, 03:01:14 pm
Yeah, go Obama!

What was the 1% who didn't vote for Barasso?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 09, 2011, 03:13:23 pm
Yeah, go Obama!

What was the 1% who didn't vote for Barasso?

Eh, I had to give some portion of the vote to third parties.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 09, 2011, 04:58:18 pm
Cumulative Congressional Update:

SENATE

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7-5nEHXgeJc/TkGrJBHgflI/AAAAAAAAC04/Az5XS1RgZqQ/s1600/538sen.png)

NET CHANGE: D+1


U.S HOUSE

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-66paUnCArvs/TkGq0oLZSrI/AAAAAAAAC0w/STfEj0KT9vM/s1600/house113blankk.png)

REPUBLICANS: 174
DEMOCRATS: 156
RUNOFF NEEDED: 4
OUTSTANDING: 101


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Devilman88 on August 10, 2011, 08:50:05 am
What the ev map look like now?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 10, 2011, 01:02:34 pm
OBAMA- 181
ROMNEY-176

(I'll post a map when I call more states)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: redcommander on August 11, 2011, 09:26:29 pm
How did Cicciline manage to hold on in Rhode Island? I know its a pretty liberal place, but I don't see him winning against the Republican.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on August 13, 2011, 07:13:29 am
more, please!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Ron DeSanchez on August 13, 2011, 01:54:26 pm
more, please!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on August 13, 2011, 01:59:34 pm


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: bloombergforpresident on August 13, 2011, 03:16:05 pm
Who won Luektemeyer's seat in MO?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 13, 2011, 11:29:34 pm
How did Cicciline manage to hold on in Rhode Island? I know its a pretty liberal place, but I don't see him winning against the Republican.

Just assume some generic (and thus, electable) Democrat beat him in the primary and held the seat.

Who won Luektemeyer's seat in MO?

His 9th district was axed since he ran for Senate. Most of his district was combined with Aiken's and Graves'.



I'll shoot for an update by Monday; I'm currently working on a few more state maps.

'Miles


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on August 16, 2011, 05:59:57 am
So...?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 18, 2011, 10:32:33 am
A long-awaited update! :)

Rachel: Continuing our move westward, we have several more states to project. We just got results from the Dakotas. Starting in South Dakota, the home of Republican VP candidate John Thune. Accordingly, Governor Romney will be winning the state in a blowout 68-31 margin. This just shows how popular Senator Thune is back home. Democratoc counties are largely limited to those with large majority Native American populations. In the House race, Freshman Republican Kristi Noem faced only token opposition, as former Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin decided against seeking a rematch.

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/SDPRES.png)

Chris: The Republican Presidential ticket was also very strong in North Dakota. Romney will be winning there by about 30 points. However, at the state level, North Dakota is more of a mixed bag. We had quite an interesting Senate race here. Acting Governor Jack Dalrymple challenged Senator Kent Conrad. Dalrymple was fairly popular despite not actually being elected; he portrayed Conrad as a Beltway insider who was too entrenched in D.C politics to be in touch with North Dakota. Polling was close for this race, as Dalrymple was competitive. With only 64% of precincts in, we can report that Senator Conrad is trailing the Governor. This could really come down to the wire. North Dakota hasn't had a competitive Senate race in decades.

Rachel: There was also an open Governor's race there. This comes as good news for Democrats. The AP can project that former Senator Byron Dorgan will come out ahead of Lieutenant Governor Drew Wrigley. Because of his retirement, Dorgan wasn't as attached to D.C as Conrad, so that definitely played his favor. Wrigley also ran somewhat of an ineffective and slow campaign.

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/ND2012.png)

Chris: Moving west still, we have a look at Nevada. Governor Romney has always done well here and we can report that he is indeed in a tight race. At this point, we can give the President a small lead, but we still about a third of precincts left.
However, one race that isn't close is the Senate contest. Congresswoman Dina Titus will be soundly elected over tea party icon Sharron Angle. Angle ousted Senator John Ensign in the primary, but never had much appeal outside of conservative voters. Even if Obama loses here, Democrats should be glad that they have both of Nevada's Senate seats.
The House delegation will stand at 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans. Democrats Shelley Berkley and Chris Guinchigliani were elected in liberal Las Vegas districts will Republicans Joe Heck and Sue Lowden take the other 2 seats.

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/nv2012.png)

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/nvdelegation.png)

Rachel: We can finally make a call in Missouri. Governor Romney will win there by about 3%. The President lost there by 3000 votes and since then the electorate has become less receptive to him. In any case, its a good boost for Governor Romney.

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/mofinal-1.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on August 18, 2011, 01:35:33 pm
Woah, Obama did worse than I expected in the Dakotas. Guess Thune helped a lot more than I expected.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 18, 2011, 01:47:58 pm
Woah, Obama did worse than I expected in the Dakotas. Guess Thune helped a lot more than I expected.

It may seem like a lot, but in 2004, Bush got 60% in SD and 62% in ND.

So Romney outperforms Bush by 8% in SD and 2% in ND. I think that's reasonable considering Thune's home-state effect.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on August 18, 2011, 01:50:04 pm
Yeah. Obama slightly overperformed as well due to McCain's opposition to ethanol.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Ron DeSanchez on August 18, 2011, 03:14:49 pm
A Romney victory in Missouri is a good sign.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 18, 2011, 04:28:10 pm
Up next:

-IA
-CO
-MT
-UT
-AR (official AP call)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on August 18, 2011, 04:30:29 pm
Up next:

-IA
-CO
-MT
-UT
-AR (official AP call)

that'll be today??

I hope Conrad wins... he's one of my favourite senators.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 18, 2011, 04:34:30 pm
Up next:

-IA
-CO
-MT
-UT
-AR (official AP call)

that'll be today??

I hope Conrad wins... he's one of my favourite senators.

Probably not today; I'll be traveling tomorrow, so I'll shoot for Saturday. I'll post what I can tonight as well.

I'll try to get IA, MT and UT up tonight. How's that?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on August 18, 2011, 07:29:52 pm
Up next:

-IA
-CO
-MT
-UT
-AR (official AP call)

that'll be today??

I hope Conrad wins... he's one of my favourite senators.

Probably not today; I'll be traveling tomorrow, so I'll shoot for Saturday. I'll post what I can tonight as well.

I'll try to get IA, MT and UT up tonight. How's that?

That's enough ;) Thanks. UT should be really interesting


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 18, 2011, 10:36:02 pm
Chris: Now lets go Utah. As a Mormon, this was like a home-state to Governor Romney. As you would expect, it was no contest at the Presidential level. Romney beat the President by a better than 3-to-1 margin. 'Pretty impressive. Governor Gary Herbert soared to reelection over minor third-party candidates.
However, the race to watch here was for Senate. Hoping to avoid the fate of his former colleague Bob Bennett, Senator Orrin Hatch left the GOP to run on his own. The tea party went after Hatch because of his extensive bipartisan work with the late Teddy Kennedy. However, by skipping the GOP Convention to run as Independent, he may have only postponed his fate. Democrats did not run a candidate; some say that Hatch made a deal with Democratic officials in the state. Because no real Democrat ran, Hatch was hoping to build a coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats. However, tonight it looks like we can report that Congressman Jason Chaffetz, the Republican, will be making history by defeating Utah's longest serving Senator. Even with high name recognition and a solid effort, Hatch couldn't withstand the overwhelming Republican coattails.

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/utpres.png)

Rachel: Next we have Montana. This is another sort of mixed-bag state where both parties have won important races. As you pointed out earlier, Chris, Governor Romney has always had a certain electoral prowess out west; that also hols true for Montana. While McCain only carried Montana with less than 50% in 2008, the President's standing there has certainly eroded. The AP says that Romney will win there by about 9 points.
There was a great amount of ballot-crossing among Montana voters as well. In the Senate race, Senator Jon Tester has won by about 12 points over an almost perennial Republican, Steve Daines.
In the House race, Governor Brian Schweitzer, who was considered to be on the President's short-list for VP this year, will be elected to Congress for Montana's at-large seat. Schweitzer, like Governor Dave Freudnethal in next-door Wyoming, was a popular term-limited Governor who opted to run for the House. Schweitzer makes a strong Congressional debut, winning just under 60% of the vote.
Finally, Congressman Denny Rehberg will assume the Governorship. He defeats AG Steve Bullock. So again, in Montana, we pretty much have victories for both parties.

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/MTfinal-2.png)




(I didn't get to IA :( )


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on August 18, 2011, 10:58:42 pm
Wow. I must have forgotten just how much Romney can do in Utah.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on August 18, 2011, 10:59:54 pm
Rom-ney! Rom-ney! Rom-ney!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on August 19, 2011, 05:48:02 am
thanks again ;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 19, 2011, 06:48:57 pm
Chris: Another state that was more close this time around was Iowa. Obama carried it in 2008 handily by about 10 points. Well, Governor Romney was hoping that he could capitalize on Senator Thune's midwestern appeal there. While Iowa was more competitive, we can say that Obama will be retaining it by about 6 points.
We only have 1 notable House race there. Congressmen Leonard Boswell and Tom Latham were thrown into the same district as Iowa had to ax one of its seats after the census. Latham was a Republican who always enjoyed strong support from Independents; tonight, in somewhat of an upset, he will be defeating Boswell for that newly-drawn, central-Iowa 3rd district.

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/iaa-2.png)

Rachel: We have results from Idaho. No shocks; the Governor easily wins 4 more electoral votes. There were no other major races here and both of Idaho's GOP Congressman will be easily reelected.

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/IDPRES.png)

Chris: Finally, despite overwhelming support for Obama/Beebe in the Arkansas delta, Romney will be winning the Razorback state. Eh, at least Democrats picked up a Congressional seat there.

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/ARR.png)

Rachel: When it rains, it certainly pours; we have even more bad news for Democrats. We can project that the key state of Florida will end up in Romney's camp. Republicans ran a great operation there and some criticized Obama's effort there as lazy and lacking urgency. In any case, this is a major blow to the President and it truly does complicate his path to 270.

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/FLpres.png)



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 19, 2011, 06:57:21 pm
(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/20122-1.png)

ROMNEY- 240
OBAMA- 187


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on August 19, 2011, 07:00:02 pm
You messed up with the Iowa percentages. :P


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 19, 2011, 07:22:58 pm
Fixed.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on August 19, 2011, 09:41:32 pm
Romney wins FL and AR... I thought Obama could take AR =/


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: bore on August 21, 2011, 07:28:28 am
Looking at the map and the states that are to declare, I can't see how Romney gets the extra 30 votes.

By the Way Great Timeline.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Vosem on August 21, 2011, 08:40:35 am
Looking at the map and the states that are to declare, I can't see how Romney gets the extra 30 votes.

By the Way Great Timeline.


Assuming the Pacific Northwest will go Democratic, Romney needs all three of North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada to win. (I'm counting Alaska as being in the Romney column already).

However, if Romney can flip Oregon (can he?) his path to 270 becomes that much easier. The problem is that of this quartet, all four states are trending Democratic. Romney shouldn't give up hope yet; he can still pull this out.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on August 21, 2011, 08:44:09 am
Are the ones with the 30%type shading being counted?

Strange. Even if Romney loses, Id call it a good Tepublican year when looking at the map.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 21, 2011, 10:03:41 am
Are the ones with the 30%type shading being counted?


No; the results from those states are still pending.

I told Julio this the other day, but just so that everyone knows: I had some hardware issues with my laptop. Until I get a new part for it, about 4-8 days, I can't update the TL. I'm working off the campus computers, but all my maps are on my laptop :P.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 21, 2011, 12:18:31 pm
Looking at the map and the states that are to declare, I can't see how Romney gets the extra 30 votes.

By the Way Great Timeline.


Assuming the Pacific Northwest will go Democratic, Romney needs all three of North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada to win. (I'm counting Alaska as being in the Romney column already).

However, if Romney can flip Oregon (can he?) his path to 270 becomes that much easier. The problem is that of this quartet, all four states are trending Democratic. Romney shouldn't give up hope yet; he can still pull this out.
Ah, since it was shaded, I thought Nevada and North Carolina had already been called, so I thought it was pretty much impossible for Romney to win. Looks like it's still plausible.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: redcommander on August 21, 2011, 06:42:52 pm
I'd love to see Oregon go for Romney. Miles are you going use new California congressional districts for your TL since I know originally you were keeping the 2001-2011 ones intact?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 21, 2011, 06:51:52 pm
I'd love to see Oregon go for Romney. Miles are you going use new California congressional districts for your TL since I know originally you were keeping the 2001-2011 ones intact?

Yes, I am. Only 1 district will be flipping though.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: bore on August 22, 2011, 03:02:10 pm
Looking at the map and the states that are to declare, I can't see how Romney gets the extra 30 votes.

By the Way Great Timeline.


Assuming the Pacific Northwest will go Democratic, Romney needs all three of North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada to win. (I'm counting Alaska as being in the Romney column already).

However, if Romney can flip Oregon (can he?) his path to 270 becomes that much easier. The problem is that of this quartet, all four states are trending Democratic. Romney shouldn't give up hope yet; he can still pull this out.
Ah, since it was shaded, I thought Nevada and North Carolina had already been called, so I thought it was pretty much impossible for Romney to win. Looks like it's still plausible.

If North carolina's votes aren't already counted though I think Romney might pull it out as he does have some pull in the west.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on August 25, 2011, 10:38:48 pm
...


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 25, 2011, 11:16:43 pm
...

I'm still waiting on a computer part!!! :(

I'll see what I can post on the LSU campus computers. I just tend to be a perfectionist when it comes to this stuff, so I'd like to have access to the maps/editing programs on my laptop.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 27, 2011, 12:41:30 pm
Expect an update later today.

I still don't have the darn part for my laptop >:(

I'll have results from WA, OR, CA and HI. 'Obviously good news for Obama.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on August 27, 2011, 06:21:43 pm
=)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 27, 2011, 07:17:18 pm
Rachel: As election night rolls on, we have results from the west coast. Of course, this region has been swinging towards the Democrats for the last few decades, so team blue can certainly breath a sigh of relief as these numbers come in. We start in the Evergreen State, Washington. Even though Washington state was ground zero for the 1994 GOP wave, as Republicans picked up 6 House seats there, Democrats did fairly well there in 2010, despite a grim outlook in other states; they held onto the state's Congressional delegation and Senator Patty Murray won by a surprisingly comfortable margin, almost 5%. Overall, Washington is another good area for the President again, he'll be winning there by 11 points. Also, Senator Maria Cantwell routes here opponent, John Koster.
The Republicans, however, will be taking the Governorship.  Governor Chris Gregoire was never well-liked to begin with, but still sought a third term anyway. As you may recall, she even lost the jungle primary a few months ago. AG Rob McKenna was always considered a favorite to win overall, and he will be winning despite an otherwise unfavorable climate for his party statewide.

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/wapres.png)

Chris: Some of Gregoire's opponents even called here the "Wicked Witch of the Northwest"! Anyway, moving to Oregon, we have a fairly simple story. Obama will be winning there by about 10 points. Even though, the Romney camp made a better-than-expected effort there, no one was realistically expecting him to win there.
(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/orpres.png)
Rachel: California was also largely uncontested by either candidate. While the President will not be repeating his 24-point trouncing of McCain, he still will win the state by about 18 points. Even as other larger states have soured on the President, he always polled very well there and his party even made gains there in 2010.
In the Senate race, we can report another lopsided victory. Sn Fransisco attorney Kamala Harris defeats tea party Republican Chuck DeVore by over 20 points for Diane Feinstein's old seat. Some are already comparing Harris to a "female Barack Obama." She'll really be a rising star in Democratic politics.
Finally, in the House, we only have one seat changing hands. Dr. Ami Bera will ousting Congressman Dan Lungren. Bera was also seen as a rising star in Democratic politics. Despite his loss in 2010, he was a bright spot for House Democrats; not many doctors are running as Democrats!
(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/pictemplate.png)

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/CA003.png)
Chris: Finally, we have the President's home, Hawaii. He will be crushing Romney with just over 70% of the vote. We also had quite an add Senate race. Senator Dan Akaka faced an Independent challenge from conservative Democrat Ed Case. Still, Akaka, who is popular, also had overwhelming Obama coattails in his favor. Case will be losing that race by almost 30 points. Case tried to build a coalition with Republicans, but Republicans in Hawaii are fairly hard to find...
(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/hipres.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on August 27, 2011, 08:17:42 pm
Expected results, but thanks for updating ;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on August 27, 2011, 08:44:45 pm
Hey, did you do Colorado yet?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 27, 2011, 09:32:14 pm
Hey, did you do Colorado yet?

No. Actually, I'm not quite sure why I haven't done CO yet...

I'll have it in my next (and likely final) batch of results.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: President von Cat on August 28, 2011, 06:30:13 pm
This thread is terrific. I was seriously on the edge of my seat as these results were coming in. Your election music made it all too real. Can't wait for your conclusion!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on August 28, 2011, 09:10:21 pm
I'm glad someone noticed the music!

I'll try to have an update by next weekend.

Basically, all thats left is NC, CO, NV and the ND Senate race.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 03, 2011, 11:27:17 am
U-P-D-A-T-E!!!!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on September 03, 2011, 11:59:44 am
LAST CONGRESSIONAL RACES CEMENT CONTROL OF CHAMBERS

Chris: We have two more important Congressional races to report, but still, it looks like both parties will retain their respective chamber of the US Congress.

Rachel: Thats right. In our last major Senate call, Senator Conrad will actually be retaining his seat. It looks like his adds emphasizing his seniority and clout on key Committees has payed off. Still, this was by far the closest Senate race in recent North Dakota history. Considering Conrad beat Dalrymple by almost 2-to-1 in 1992, my hat is off to Dalrymple for coming so close to winning tonight.
(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/ND2012-1.png)

Finally, our last critical House race was in Colorado. In the newly-drawn 4th district, former Congresswoman Betsey Markey makes a comeback by defeating tea party Republican Ken Buck. Even though Buck was able to raise millions of dollars, mostly from national tea party groups and conservative interests, he was still seen as unelectable by many in this district.

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/COO4.png)

Chris: So, as far as the Congressional bottom lines, here are our final numbers for tonight. While Democrats netted 19 seats in the House, Speaker John Boehner will be holding on to his gavel. Boehner will oversee 223 seats to 212 for Minority Leader Pelosi. It will be interesting to watch the coalitions that Boehner will need to form in order to pass key legislation.
In the Senate, we will have 53 Democrats to 47 Republicans.

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/housetotal.png)

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/house113blank-3.png)




(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/senatetotal.png)

SENATE DELEGATION MAP

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/2012senatedelegations.png)

SENATE ROSTER
(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/senateroster-2.png)
New members bold and italicized


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: President von Cat on September 03, 2011, 04:42:43 pm
Please finish! We are dying for the conclusion! :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 03, 2011, 06:21:59 pm
Please finish! We are dying for the conclusion! :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on September 03, 2011, 07:43:26 pm
Please finish! We are dying for the conclusion! :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Ron DeSanchez on September 03, 2011, 08:19:19 pm


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on September 03, 2011, 08:19:51 pm


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on September 05, 2011, 02:49:23 pm
OBAMA PROJECTED WINNER

Rachel: With the AP calling the three states of Colorado, Nevada and North Carolina, we can call the race for President Obama. With these three states, the tally in the Electoral College will stand at 280 for the President as opposed to 258 for the Governor.

Colorado was the only swing state to elect both a Democratic Senator and Governor last year, so Democrats invested heavily in retaining Colorado's 9 electoral votes. Colorado's very popular Governor, John Hickenlooper, was also a string supporter and campaigner for Obama. We can see those efforts paying off tonight as the President pulls out a 5-point win in this battleground state.
(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/co2012.png)

In Nevada, the President is clinging onto a 3-point lead, and the AP projects that the outcome of this race will not turn out in the Governor's favor. While the slow economy there was a drag on Obama, the Democratic turnout effort here was second to none; we saw this with Senate Leader Harry Reid in 2010. President Obama racked up 58% in Clarke County, Las Vegas, and Governor Romney could not make up for that elsewhere.
(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/NV2012F.png)

Chris: Finally, despite all the effort Democrats put into North Carolina, such as  hosting the DNC, Obama's dozens of campaign stops there, the millions of dollars the national party spent there, the President will be losing the state by about one-point. This comes as something of a consolation prize to the Romney campaign, a quite a few poll showed him trailing there and the Obama campaign emphasized North Carolina so greatly.
(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/nc2012.png)

Finally, we don't have any actual returns from Alaska, but based on just exit polling, the AP is calling it for Romney.
(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/AK.png)

Rachel: Well, no doubt this has been a landmark, crazy and exciting night to be an American political reporter. With the status quo largely preserved in both in the halls of Congress and in the White House, in which direction will our nation policies go now? At MSNBC we look forward to covering the 2nd part of President Obama's Administration for the next four years. For now though, I'm Rachel Maddow, signing off!

Chris: And I'm Chris Matthews!

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/popvote.png)
OBAMA- 280
ROMNEY- 258

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/538sen.png)



Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on September 05, 2011, 03:00:23 pm
 YEAH


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on September 05, 2011, 03:01:10 pm
Boo! :(


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on September 05, 2011, 03:20:55 pm
I think I'll be skipping straight to 2014 after this. In 2013, Christie wins reelection and Tom Perriello wins an upset in VA.

Now on to the midterms!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on September 05, 2011, 03:29:28 pm
1. What did Obama do in years 5 and 6?
2. What happened in the NYC mayoral election?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on September 05, 2011, 03:44:01 pm
1. What did Obama do in years 5 and 6?
2. What happened in the NYC mayoral election?

1- I'll get to that later.
2-Weiner wins. The Weiner-gate scandal never happened in my TL.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 05, 2011, 07:30:39 pm
Fantastic, Obama won =)

I'd like to know the margin of Perriello's victory, however ;)

Thanks, Miles. continue soon, please!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on September 05, 2011, 07:35:16 pm
Nooooooo!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on September 06, 2011, 03:51:14 pm
Fantastic, Obama won =)

I'd like to know the margin of Perriello's victory, however ;)

Thanks, Miles. continue soon, please!

Perriello upsets Cuccinelli by a few hundred votes, just like he did with Virgil Goode.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on September 06, 2011, 05:12:19 pm
Very good. :) I recall you saying this would go beyond 2012.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on September 08, 2011, 01:42:57 am
This also kinda goes with 2013....


NC DELEGATION EYES NEW COURT-DRAWN MAP

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/ncdelegation.png)

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/nccourt-2.png)

Today the new Congressional map of North Carolina was unveiled after more than a year of litigation. When the Democratic State House could not agree with the Republican Senate on Congressional maps, the process was sent to the courts. Specifically, the State Supreme Court took over the process of redrawing the state’s 13 House districts. The Chief Justice, Sarah Parker, along with 2 Associate Justices, Mark Martin and Patricia Timmons-Goodson, were largely charged with drawing the new districts. “Our main goals were to preserve communities of interest and create compact seats while ensuring that minorities have adequate representation. Unlike the party leaders in the General Assembly, we did not consider the partisan impacts of our lines.”; Martin went on “North Carolina has a history of virulently gerrymandered districts. North Carolina may be the most litigated state in the country, in terms of redistricting; that reflects badly on our people. We tried to change that by creating clean districts.” Chief Justice Parker said that she “fully expects the new lines to be in place for the 2014 midterms.”

In terms of partisanship, pundits project the map will result in 7 seats that are “Safe” or “Likely” wins for either party while the other 6 could become competitive under certain circumstances. While the electoral outcome of the new map is similar to the current iteration, a few NC’s individual Congressman may need to do some geopolitical maneuvering.

In the northeastern portion of the state, G.K Butterfield’s district, which lost over 100,000 people since the last round of redistricting, reaches westward to swallow Durham.  Interestingly, this was a feature of the map proposed by Assembly Republicans. Still, Butterfield himself has endorsed the new seat. “It protects the voting rights of our minorities and does not leave any significant black populations in a Republican district.” Roughly 51% of the registered voters there are black.

The new second district keeps its anchor, GOP-leaning Johnston County, but also takes in most of northern Wake County. Overall, the district maintains a slight Democratic lean, voting 50.9% for President Obama in 2012.Its incumbent, Elaine Marshall, finds herself drawn into the neighboring 13th district. Still, many expect Marshall to run in the new 2nd; NC political pollster Tom Jensen says “She’s had 18 years a statewide official; name recognition should not be a problem for her in any of these districts. It would make sense for her to run in the new 2nd. She’d start out as the favorite.”

Walter Jones’ 3rd district becomes slightly more compact and remains largely unchanged. It gave about 60% of its vote to Governor Romney in 2012. Most expect Jones, a moderate Republican, to have no problem holding it.

In shedding Durham to the new 1st and much of its Wake county territory to the new 13th, David Price’s 4th now extends to Greensboro and hugs the Virginia border. Even though most wanted Wake county to have only 2 districts, the 4th maintains a small tendril of Wake to include NC State University. “We wanted the 4th to represent the interests of the Research Triangle.  It now includes NC State, Duke and UNC-Chapel Hill” Martin said. “These institutions will have a unified Congressional voice in Representative Price. Using his clout, he will be able to steer appropriate funding towards these three great universities” Martin said. “This may be the most highly-educated district in the country!” Obama won the 4th by 59-40 in 2012.

Virginia Foxx’s 5th is still nestled in the northwestern corner of the state. It shed much of its Triad area in order to take in counties near Foxx’s residence. Giving Governor Romney almost 64%, this is a very safe GOP seat.

The new 6th would become a much more urban seat, consisting of most of central Winston-Salem and Greensboro. Without a viable district in the Research Triangle, most expect Congressman Brad Miller to run here, despite his general lack of clout in local politics. “He was raised in Fayetteville, he’s represented Raleigh in the State Senate and Congress and now it looks like he’ll have to move to the Triad.  Is there a region of the state where Congressman Miller doesn’t have a connection to!?” Jensen joked. Still, while Miller’s current 13th does have a portion of Greensboro, most of this district would be new to him; he could be vulnerable in a primary. Specifically, 2010 Senate candidate Cal Cunningham is considering a run here, should Miller decide to run elsewhere. The winner of the Democratic primary would be favored, as this seat gave Obama 56% last year.

The 7th district keeps its general configuration in southeastern NC. While the district gave President Obama only 45% to Romney’s 54%, Congressman Mike McIntyre, a conservative Democrat, should hold it fairly easily, even though he barley lives within the confines of this new seat. “We wanted to use as many whole counties as possible for this district” Chief Justice Parker said. “In splitting Robeson, that standard was otherwise fulfilled.”  Historically, this is a deeply Democratic seat; the last time the 7th district of North Carolina sent a Republican to the US Congress was in 1868.

Congressman Larry Kissell of Biscoe would keep a slightly Democratic-leaning seat. Giving Obama 52% last year, some observers consider this to be a swing district; still, despite Republican efforts to unseat him, Kissell has proven to be an especially formidable campaigner.
 
Sue Myrick of Charlotte will be among the safest incumbents in Congress. In 2010, she won with almost 70% in a 54% McCain seat; now, she will hold a 60% Romney seat based in the southern and eastern Charlotte suburbs.  Congressman Patrick McHenry is similarly as safe as he ever was. The Gaston County Congressman will take a 63% Romney district that will encompass the western and northern Charlotte exurbs.  

Congressman Heath Shuler would find his district virtually unchanged “The 11th district was already a fairly logical and compact seat” Martin announced. “Therefore, the 11th was largely insulated from any changes, other than minor line tweaks.” Despite Governor Romney’s 7% margin here, this district is more competitive on the local level and the conservative Shuler is very popular.

Perhaps the most radical change that this map presented was the elimination of the so-called ‘NC-12 Snake.’ “We thought that a district based entirely in Mecklenburg County was more than reasonable” said Martin. “Rather than splitting his time and effort between major three cities, Congressman Watt can focus exclusively on representing the people of Charlotte.”  As for partisan concerns, the 12th district will still be strongly Democratic, though less so than its previous iteration; it would have given Obama 66% in 2012, as opposed to 71% in its serpentine shape back in 2008.

Finally, the 13th occupies a good swath of central NC and most of southern Wake County.  Representative Elaine Marshall would live there, but most expect her to run in the neighboring 2nd. With the dean of the delegation, Congressman Howard Coble, retiring, former Congresswoman Renee Ellmers is said to mulling a comeback, though its unclear as to how crowded the GOP field will be.

“In the final analysis, we feel that we have created a map that features compact seats and strengthens communities of interest” the 3 Justices said in a joint statement.

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/nccourt-2.png)

District Stats:
(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/ncstats.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on September 09, 2011, 07:34:11 pm
Decent map, not ultra-gerrymandered like either the D plans or the R plans.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 10, 2011, 12:26:21 pm
continue!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on September 11, 2011, 01:33:34 am
November 2013

LOOKING TO MIDTERMS, EPIC SENATE MATCH-UPS COULD EMERGE

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/2014sen.png)
Senators Warner, Collins, Landrieu and LoBiondo could find themselves in tough races next year.

Politico-  While political observers had quite a spectacle this year with Governor Tom Perriello's surprise win in Virginia and Governor Chris Christie's win over New Jersey Senate Leader Steve Sweeney, next year will be even more promising for political enthusiasts. In 2012, Democrats held  a 53-47 Senate majority while the GOP held their majority in the People's House. With the President's approvals breaking roughly even, 48% approving with 49% disapproving reports PPP, and Congressional approval gradually rising, political statistician Nate Silver says that large changes within Congress are unlikely next year. "We shouldn't expect a sizmic power shift next year. Republicans will not have a 2006-style beatdown; similarly, Democrats are unlikely to experience a 2010-esque bloodbath."

Still, operatives for both parties are eyeing total Congressional control. DSCC Chair Xavier Bacerra says that a Democratic House comeback could very well be in the cards. "After 4 years of Speaker Boehner's polarizing and ineffective style, I think its fair to say that the American people want better. We House Democrats look forward to being back in the majority come 2015 and so we can finally end the political stagnation." House Majority Leader Eric Cantor takes another stance. "By giving the gavel to my good friend Speaker Boehner, the American people sent a message; they want a balanced and responsible approach to governing. Thats what we as Republicans have tried to do. As a country, we can't afford to return to free-spending, and unrestrained days of Speaker Pelosi."

There will also be many high-profile Senate races. Thanks to big gains in 2008, Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid will be defending 20 seats to only 13 for Minority Leader McConnell.  "Of course Americans are sick and tired of a Democratic Senate" said RSCC Chair Richard Burr. "Republicans have a solid opportunity to flip up to 9 seats next year. That would give us a strong 56-44 Majority. Senate  Democrats will not have the advantage of having an unpopular President to run against, as they did back in 2008. In fact, President Obama may actually be working against some Democrats." DSCC leader Patty Murray suggested otherwise "American voters approved of the job Senate Democrats were doing back in 2012 and I fully expect them to again. In the Senate, Democrats have been focused on ushering forward jobs agenda that we feel will help millions of Americans."

Most political pundits are already predicting which Senate races will be most competitive.

In Virginia, outgoing Governor Bob McDonnell is said to be weighing a run against Senator Mark Warner. "McDonnell is a fine Governor and he has a strong record as a legislator" said Burr. Still, even with McDonnell, Virginia could be an uphill climb for Republicans. Warner's latest numbers showed 53% approving of his job to only 31% giving him bad marks; McDonnell was given favorable reviews himself, with 51% approving and 38% disapproving of his tenure.

Republicans are also targeting Mary Landrieu, who is among the most conservative Democrat in the Senate. She already has one opponent in former Congressman Jeff Landry; Landry is  positioning himself a the tea party's choice. "Landrieu had been voting for big government her entire career. Louisiana is a Republican state and it deserves a true conservative. Senator Landrieu will pretend to a moderate, but when push comes to shove, she will vote with her more liberal colleagues." Murray says otherwise "I don't know why the people of Louisiana would want want to throw away Mary's 18 years of clout in the Senate. From defending the Gulf Coast, to protecting small businesses, Mary wakes up every day with the goal of moving her state forward." Other possible Republicans include Congressman Charles Boustany and Bill Cassidy. Governor Jindal, a rising star in GOP politics said that he is "leaning against" a Senate run. Landrieu's last approval was 44/40; she also led Landry 43-36.

On the other side, Democrats think that they could pick up a few seats. In Maine, Congressman Mike Michaud looks to be gearing up towards challenging Senator Susan Collins. "I can assure you that Democrats will not be picking up a seat from Maine next year" Burr maintained. "Susan does a fantastic job of representing her constituents. Her legislative style reflects the independent spirit of her people." Democrats say that Michaud could be competitive. Collins posts a 55/33 approval rating and leads Michaud 53-40 in hypothetical polling. "She's still strong, but her numbers now are worse than the 24-points she won by in 2008" said pollster Tom Jensen. "Collins' lead isn't insurmountable, but Mainers are quite fond of both their Senators." Senator Olympia Snowe stands at a 59/29 approval rating.

A more winnable race for Democrats could be that in New Jersey. Senator Frank LoBiondo held onto his seat despite President Obama's 12-point win. Like Collins in Maine, LoBiondo retains a good amount of personal popularity, which helps his prospects in this blue-leaning state. PPP pegged his approvals at 50/38. Even so, Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts posted similar numbers in 2011, but went on to lose by 6.
Ironically, LoBiondo's biggest challenge may come from his right; he's carved out a niche as a liberal Republican, supporting Democrats on many environmental and social policies. "I've tried to bring moderation to the Republican caucus. I take the best ideas from both parties to get results for the people of New Jersey. I don't see whats so controversial about that." Tea party groups are trying to draft Governor Christie, somewhat of a conservative firebrand, to run in the Republican primary. Christie has since ruled out running. "Look, I appointed Frank. There's no chance I'd run against him. I appointed him in the first place because I knew he'd be an effective Senator. Here in Trenton, I have my hands full already." Conservatives may find a better candidate in former Congressman Jon Runyan, who said he'd "consider" running for Senate again. On the Democratic side, progressives are eyeing Congressman Rush Holt. Holt trails LoBiondo 45-40 but leads Runyan 43-37. In primary polling, Christie narrowly leads LoBiondo 41-39 but LoBiondo would hold a 53-36 lead over Runyan.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 11, 2011, 08:47:58 am
I see LoBiondo becoming an independent =S

I know you'll make Landrieu win, Miles! However, please, don't let Warner loose!!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on September 11, 2011, 12:29:04 pm
We'll see!!

Anyway, now that school is back in full swing for me, I'll probably update the TL on a weekend-to-weekend basis.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on September 11, 2011, 12:37:25 pm
Excited!

Warner has stated several times how unhappy he's been in the Senate due to the lack of compromise and bitterness there. Personally, I don't see him running for reelection, especially if he would be in a competitive race.

Fun fact I noticed a while back - the last Virginia Governor who didn't later run for Senate was Douglas Wilder. He ran for Mayor instead. :P


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on September 11, 2011, 12:51:39 pm
I thought Wilder ran for President.

Also, is McConnell vulnerable?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on September 11, 2011, 12:54:14 pm
I thought Wilder ran for President.

Also, is McConnell vulnerable?
He ran for both President and Senate, but both runs were short lived. I'm only considering runs that actually ended in defeat/victory. ;)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on September 11, 2011, 01:20:54 pm
I thought Wilder ran for President.

Also, is McConnell vulnerable?

He's at 40/51 approval in KY.

Some of KY's Democratic statewide officials may be prepping to run for his seat...


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on September 11, 2011, 02:15:04 pm
Guessing either Mongiardo or Conway.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 11, 2011, 02:41:50 pm
Senator Conway... I like it! (f*** Rand Paul, he should have dropped out and endorsed his challenger hahaha).


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Talleyrand on September 12, 2011, 07:20:28 pm
Guessing either Mongiardo or Conway.

Crit Luallen?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on October 01, 2011, 05:58:26 pm
SHE'S BACK!!!

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ew1Syg3uV0w/ToeV1X34qCI/AAAAAAAAC1I/QG9GfdQZkS8/s1600/ak2014.png)

Politico- Today, in her home town of Wasilla, Alaska, former Governor Sarah Palin announced that she will seek elected office again: this time, to the US Senate. "I'm very proud of the campaign we ran for President. My team put forward a great effort and we received millions of votes, but in the end, we fell just short of the Nomination. Even though Republicans came very close to winning back in 2012 we still have a President who is imposing crushing regulations on our businesses and destroying the future of our future generations. Until 2016, that will sadly still be the case. In the meantime, all kinds of Americans have been asking me "Sarah, why don't you run again!? Please run again!" Well, this outpouring of support has truly been humbling. The more I thought about it, the more I realized that I could not just sit back while President Obama and Senate Leader Harry Reid bankrupt our county and spend away America's greatness. Thats what's motivated me and thats while I'll be running for US Senate in these upcoming midterm elections."

She went on "I know that I will have the full backing of many patriotic groups such as the Tea Party Express and FreedomWorks, as well as my own SarahPAC. In the last midterm elections, these groups raised millions to elect Constitutional Conservatives and we were able to take back the House.  From New Mexico to Maine, conservatives were able to make unprecedented gains in all across the country, not only in Congress, but also at the more local levels. Well, this time I'm throwing my own hat into the ring!"

Palin also took a few swipes at her opponent, Senator Mark Begich. "Now for being ruggedly  conservative state, Alaska has a two liberal Senators in Washington. Senator Begich pretends to be a moderate, independent-minded legislator, but in the end, he will vote with Harry Reid and the liberals. He voted for the stimulus package which did next to nothing for us in Alaska and wasted hundreds billions. He also voted this President's healthcare take-over. We can't afford that! If I'm elected, I will bring a fresh, conservative perspective to the US Senate where Senator Begich has failed."

Almost immediately after Palin announced her candidacy, Alaska's senior Senator, Republican Lisa Murkowski, endorsed her junior colleague. Despite their separate party affiliations, this move came as no surprise to those familiar with Alaska politics. "There's a well-known animosity between the Palins and Murkowskis which has only been exacerbated through the years" said one of Rep. Don Young's aides. Starting in 2006, Palin ousted Murkowski's father in a primary and in 2010, Palin played a key role in Murkowski's 2010 Senate primary loss. I don't think "dislike" would be a good word for their relationship; "disdain" would probably more appropriate."

"The people of Alaska should, and I believe that they ultimately will, have the good sense to avoid partisan politicians like Sarah Palin. Its clear that after walking out on the job during her first term and then failing at the national level, Governor Palin is heading back to Alaska in hopes that she can convince voters to give her another chance at leading. Senator Begich and I have worked to find solutions for Alaskans, not by tearing others down and demonizing those we disagree with, but by bringing everyone together. That's why I'll be endorsing my friend Mark for reelection." Begich's office put out a statement saying he looks forward to reelection regardless of who his opponent is. "Senator Begich sees this as a good opportunity to contrast his common-sense and centrist legislative approach to the extremist views of Governor Palin" his spokesperson said.

Tom Jense of PPP explained the statistical aspects of Palin's race; "Palin isn't particularly popular, but her negatives have gone down" said Jensen. "Last month, we found that 40% of Alaskans have a favorable view to Palin to 48% who see her negatively. That may not sound stellar, but its much better than the 36/58 spread we found her at during the lowest point of her Prediential campaign. The trend is in here favor." As far as the actual Republican primary, the news gets better for Palin; 55% of Alaska Republicans want her as their nominee to just 32% who 'definitely' want someone else.

With both Palin and Begich heavily favored to win their primaries, the general election would start out a tossup. "Begich would post a 44-41 lead. What could be worrisome for Begich is that he posts sub-par numbers himself; only 37% are happy with his job to 45% who aren't. Still, the fact that Begich is leading in a state where registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats is pretty impressive." Murkowski fares better, holding a positive 47/36 approval rating. "Murkowski's endorsement could be a big help to Begich. Her popularity could be an asset to him" Jensen concluded "Just like 2008 and 2010, we can expect the Alaska Senate race this year to be nail bitter."


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 01, 2011, 06:10:46 pm
YEEEEEEEEEEEEES, Sarah Palin being defeated by a liberal anti-american democrat in her own state!!

That sounds great


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on October 01, 2011, 06:20:47 pm
Begich is a Blue Dog, though. (Though chances are you're sarcastic)

I'd love to see Palin lose to, say, Sean Parnell in the primary.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Ron DeSanchez on October 01, 2011, 06:44:41 pm
Begich is a Blue Dog, though. (Though chances are you're sarcastic)

I'd love to see Palin lose to, say, Sean Parnell in the primary.

Probably would to...


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on October 01, 2011, 07:24:56 pm
Begich is a Blue Dog, though. (Though chances are you're sarcastic)

I'd love to see Palin lose to, say, Sean Parnell in the primary.

Probably would to...

Parnell has ruled out a Senate run and he's running for Governor again; I should have mentioned that in the article.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: RodPresident on October 01, 2011, 08:08:05 pm
Sean Parnell'14 = Charlie Christ'10...


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on October 08, 2011, 07:36:58 pm
MCCONNELL OUT, T-PAW IN

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/mnky.png)

The Senate Republicans will be electing a new floor leader at the beginning of the 114th Congress; their Leader, Mitch McConnell will not be seeking a 6th term. The Kentucky lawmaker said that "there comes a time in all our careers where it just seems logical and right to set aside. I think that this just happens to be my time. Elaine and I have just decided that this is the right time. While I look forward to leading my caucus through this last year or so,  I'll always stand behind what Senate Republicans were able to accomplish under my tenure."

Still, weak numbers at home could have been a driving factor towards McConnell's decision. Only 40% of Kentucky voters approve of his job while 51% disagree. He had 2 potential opponents who were seriously considering  challenging him. KY Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, seen as a rising star in state politics, and Congressman Ben Chandler could have given McConnell a tough race; in the polls, he only led Grimes 43-41 and he ran slightly behind Chandler at 45-42. In purely hypothetical polling, he would trail Governor Steve Beshear 51-41; the popular Governor has ruled out running for Senate.

Of the Democrats, Grimes seems more enthusiastic about mounting a Senate run. "In 2012, Kentucky elections were among the smoothest and mus budget-efficient in the country. In the two and a half years since I have been Secretary of State, we have heavily invested to combat voter fraud. My record speaks for itself and I think Kentucky voters would agree with me." Grimes posts a 41/27 job approval rating and Chandler has a similar 42/29 favorable rating. Potential Republicans who could hold McConnell's seat include Congressman Brett Guthrie and Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer. 

Top Senate Republicans are already trying to whip votes from their colleagues in the upcoming contest to fill McConnell's place as caucus leader. The two front-runners likely to emerge are Senators John Thune and Jon Kyl. After Thune's Vice-Presidential run in 2012, he has accumulated tangible clout among the Republican establishment. Also, Thune said that he'd be "inclined against" a future Presidential run, meaning that he sees himself hanging around the Senate for a while. Kyl would be the more logical and conventional choice, but has indicated that he may not be interested in seeking McConnell's job.

In Minnesota, Senator Betty McCollum has drawn a top-tier challenger in former Governor Tim Pawlenty. McCollum was appointed in 2011 after the death of Senator Al Franken. In 2012, she won the seat in her own right with 53% of the vote against another strong opponent, former Senator Norm Coleman. However, in 2012 both Minnesota seats were up for election and McCollum was buoyed by her downballot position from the very popular Senator Amy Klobuchar, who won with 66%. Before then, McCollum represented a heavily Democratic St. Paul district in the House.

"The bottom line is that Senator McCollum has not been an independent voice for our state. I've served the people of Minnesota for 8 years and I've been going around the state listening to their concerns and needs. They want a real leader for them in Washington who won't just be a rubber stamp for the President. Senator McCollum is not that leader. During her time in the House, she voted with Nancy Pelosi on virtually everything and she is maintaining a similarly far-left liberal record in the Senate. As Minnesotans, we can do better. That's why I'm running for US Senate. As a Senator, I will work to lower our national debt and create a sustainable jobs outlook not through loyalty to my party, but by bringing mt own solutions to the table."

Senator McCollum's campaign released a statement blasting Pawlenty. "From protecting the rich to restricting woman's rights, Governor Pawlenty's record points in one direction: backward. If elected, Pawlenty will work with the far-right Congressional Republicans to turn back the clock on what Congressional Democrats have accomplished, such as affordable healthcare for all Americans."

SurveyUSA's last poll has McCollum and Pawlenty tied at 44% apiece.  Similarly, Minnesotans are pretty equally divided on both candidates; McCollum has a neutral 43/39 job approval rating to Palwnety's 44/41 favorable rating. Senator Amy Klobuchar stands at 62/25 and Governor Dayton is on positive ground at 50/42.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on October 08, 2011, 08:07:24 pm
Oh, Pawlenty.

I'd love to see him become a Harold Stassen, running until he keels over in 2044 or so.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on October 08, 2011, 11:50:38 pm
PROGRESSIVES DRAFT BAUCUS PRIMARY OUSTER

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/baucusouster.png)

Montana liberals have found a candidate to run against Senator Max Baucus; Montana Superintendent of Education Denise Juneau will be challenging the 6-term Senator. Juneau said that "Montana working families are being left behind and no longer will their votes be taken for granted. I've seen this first-hand as I've steered our educational system; too many of our students come from families that are struggling to get by. That needs to stop. While Senator Baucus has garnered clout during his 36 years in Washington, it seems that too often he forgets the real and obvious struggles that face Montanans every day. Our state needs a new voice and a Senator that isn't entrenched in Beltway culture. "

Adam Green, the chairman of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, was instrumental in drafting Juneau. "At the PCCC, we're committed to electing candidates committed to taking bold progressive values to Washington. We're thrilled that Denise is running in Montana. She has an impeccable record with educational issues and, as one of Native American heritage herself, she has worked tirelessly to bring educational and economic opportunity to the Native American community. Senator Baucus, by contrast,  is one of the worst corporate Democrats in Washington. Montanans deserve better than a Republican masquerading as a Democrat; that's truly what Senator Baucus has become. Just look at his disastrous tenure as Chairman of the Finance Committee; his healthcare bill was everything the Republicans could ask for, it was a total giveaway to the very corporations that stuff Baucus' pockets. In the Senate, Denise will support progressive legislation that will truly and tangibly help the middle class, not just the rich."

When asked who he'd be endorsing, or even if he'd run for Senate, Congressman Brian Schweitzer supported Baucus. "There's no chance I'll run for Senate. I'm quite happy where I am. In the House, along with my friend Dave Freudenthal of Wyoming, I try to bring a unique westerner's perspective to our caucus. Senator Baucus has been in tough races before and he's prevailed. I don't think this will be any different." 53% are happy with his performance in Congress while 34% aren't.

The numbers are not in Baucus' favor. According to PPP, only 41% approve of his job to 52% who disagree. "Numbers like tht are bad, but aren't insurmountable" says Tom Jensen. "Baucus has had quite a fall from grace since he was reelected in 2008 with 72%. 'No question that his lead role in the healthcare debate was toxic." The Republican frontrunner is Steve Daines, who lost to Senator Jon Tester by 13 points in 2012. "Still, despite that loss, he remains competitive; I don't think Daines' 2012 loss will be an indicator for his 2014 performance. First, Tester is considerably more popular than Baucus and was a much harder opponent, as Tester stands at a very healthy 56/38 spread. Second, Daines was never unpopular, his own numbers are positive at 36/29."

Going into 2014, Daines would start out with a 43-39 lead over Baucus and he'd be up 40-38 on Juneau. "This should be the Juneau campaign's central argument: despite her more liberal positions, she actually does better in the general election. As of now, she has an electability advantage." For comparison, Schweitzer would post a 55-32 lead over Daines.  

If there is a glimmer of hope for Baucus, its that he's on good terms with Montana Democrats...for now. 60% of Democrats approve of his job while only 33% don't. "Still" Jensen says "Mike Castle and Lisa Murkowski had similar numbers with their own parties going into 2010."


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: tmthforu94 on October 08, 2011, 11:53:16 pm
Why am I not surprised Grimes is running? :P


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on October 08, 2011, 11:55:08 pm
Why am I not surprised Grimes is running? :P


I'm a huge fan of her's :)

Not that my personal opinion will influence the outcome or anything...


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on October 09, 2011, 11:12:35 am
A bit disappointed at McConnell's retirement though. I'd have liked to see him go down.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 09, 2011, 04:11:53 pm
I still support Baucus


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on October 26, 2011, 04:04:41 am
Sorry that I'm egregiously behind on this, but I'll have an update up in a few days.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 28, 2011, 10:42:05 am
Would love to see an Alaska Senate race update! And despite all the libs here rooting for Palin's Senate loss, count me as someone who hopes you let that Senate race unfold as fairly and objectively as possible ;)

Translate: if you make a democra win in AK, I'll cal you a liberal troll hahaha...


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 28, 2011, 07:19:05 pm
YEEEEEEEEEEEEES, Sarah Palin being defeated by a liberal anti-american democrat in her own state!!

That sounds great

Translation: if you make Palin win in AK, I'll call you a conservative troll hahaha...

No, I know Miles is a conservative democrat, but not a conservative troll...
...
...
...

well, not really. if he makes Palin win, I'll call him a conservatroll xD


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on October 28, 2011, 10:50:31 pm
Retirements shake Senate Democratic Caucus

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/retiredems.png)

Just as Senator Mitch McConnell’s retirement threatens cause intra-party upheaval on the GOP side, three top Democrats announced their retirements as well, sending shockwaves through the Democratic Caucus. For decades, Senators Jay Rockefeller, Carl Levin and Dick Durbin have been among the greatest power players in their caucus; this week, this trio announced that they would not seek reelection ahead of the 2014 midterms. Still, all three remain popular in their states. “Going forward, this will definitely mean that some of our newer members will be able to move up through the leadership ranks and make names for themselves” said one Democratic source “still, the policies and legislation that Dick, Jay and Carl have crafted over the years have been central to our party’s message. They’ll all be missed.”

In Illinois, Senator Durbin iterated his need to “spend more time with his family,” though he said that he’d stay active in local politics as well as national party causes. “After my time in the Senate, I will not stop working for the Democratic Party and I will keep working for a better Illinois.” Durbin’s approval rating is at a strong 52% with 35% disapproving. The popular Illinois Attorney General, Lisa Madigan has hinted at running in a possible open-seat contest and she may now have her chance. DSCC Chair Patty Murray seemed confident that the party would ultimately hold Durbin’s seat “We’ve learned from our mistakes in 2010; I assure you, Illinois will not be sending another Republican to the US Senate,” as she alluded to Senator Mark Kirk, a moderate Republican who was able to defeat a very flawed opponent to win President Obama’s old Illinois Senate seat. “Dick has been an excellent representative of his state throughout his career. I’m very excited about the possibly of Lisa Madigan.” No major Republicans have yet to emerge. President Obama remains decent ground in his home state with 51% approving of his job to 40% who don’t.

While Illinois may be easy for Democrats to maintain, West Virginia and Michigan may be harder. “While West Virginia is a Democratic state, it’s also a very conservative state” said RSCC Chair Richard Burr. “During his last term, Senator Rockefeller skewed far to the left of his state with regards to healthcare and fiscal matters. I think the people of West Virginia would agree with me. That’s probably why Jay retired.”
Rockefeller latest approval rating was 50% with 39% not approving; still, President Obama remains deeply disliked among West Virginians, as only 31% like him to 59% who don’t. Rockefeller, along with Senator Joe Manchin, along with Congressmen Mike Oliverio and Nick Rahall, endorsed Congressman Carte Goodwin for Senate. “Our state is ready for a younger generation of leaders like Carte. In the Senate, I was impressed with his diligent work, even if it was only on an interim basis. During his time in the Senate, he continued the good work of his predecessor, our dear Senator Robert Byrd. In the House, he has been a strong voice for his district and the people of central West Virginia. That’s why I’m endorsing him; while I may be leaving the Senate, with Carte, I can leave the people of West Virginia in good hands.”
While the GOP has had a historically weak bench in West Virginia, party leaders have coalesced around Bill Maloney; a conservative businessman. Former Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito has ruled out a run.

Finally, of the trio, the contest for Levin’s seat may be the most challenging for Democrats. Despite President Obama’s win in 2012, his approval lukewarm, at a 45/44 spread; Senator Debbie Stabenow, who won a competitive 2012 race, is better off, at 49/38. On both sides, the primaries are expected to be competitive. Republican Congressman Thad McCotter is gearing up to face off against fellow Representative Justin Amash. Amash, a tea party candidate, is expected to run to the right of the establishment McCotter. Rather than seeking the open seat himself, former Rep. Pete Hoeskstra, who lost to Stabenow, is now the Chair of the state Republican Party; he’s expected to back McCotter. On the Democratic side, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero is set to run against former Congressman Gary Peters, who was a redistricting victim in 2012. Neither Levin nor the state party is endorsing in the primary.

MSNBC's Chuck Todd offered his analysis, "Overall, 2014 looks to be a troublesome year for senior Democrats. In addition to these three retirements, Senator Max Baucus is facing a serious primary from his left in Montana." He added "don't forget that Senator Tim Johnson has not announced his election plans. South Dakota would be a very hard state to hold for Democrats. Finally, we knowthat three senior Democrats Senators, Kerry, Harkin and Landrieu are running for reelection."


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on October 29, 2011, 05:22:51 pm
MORE SENATE RETIREMENTS: ALEXANDER, INHOFE, MERKLEY OUT, JOHNSON STAYS IN

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/moreretire14.png)

Ahead of the midterms, three more Senators announced that they would be forgoing reelection. (This should be all the retirements...)

In Tennessee, 2-term Senator Lamar Alexander, said that he will be retiring in 2014. Alexander considered to be another key player in the GOP caucus, serving as Caucus Conference Chair. Alexander citied the slow Senatorial process in his speech. "During my time as Governor of Tennessee, I took direct and decisive actions to help the people of my state. In the Senate,  there is no such sense of urgency and intent. Throughout my terms here, that is what has most frustrated me. The process here is more engineered towards making quick deals and ignoring real debate rather than actually helping the American people."
The Republicans remain favored to hold Alexander's seat. Senator Bob Corker, who lost his primary in 2012, could be a possible candidate. Representatives Marsha Blackburn and Steven Fincher are also mulling bids. Democrats control Tennessee's other seat, with Senator Bart Gordon; its unlikely that they'd swipe both seats.

Inhofe cited his old age, 78, as his main reason for retirement. As with Tennessee, Republicans have a strong head start here. President Obama's approvals are at a horrendous 27/61 in Oklahoma. "The President would damage any Democratic there beyond repair" said RSCC Chair Richard Burr "this seat should be safely in Republican hands. The Republican party has never been stronger in Oklahoma." The Republican frontrunner is Governor Mary Fallin, who has declared her candidacy; she has a favorable 53/37 approval rating. The only 2 Democrats whop could be competitive would be former Governor Brad Henry and Congressman Dan Boren. Henry, who has a strong 55/33 favorable rating, is expected to seek his old job back.
Still, Fallin would start strong; she'd lead Henry, if he ran for Senate, by 48-44 and Boren by 47-41.

While freshman Democrat Jeff Merkley is retiring, he sees his retirement as more of a 'job transfer.' When the Governor of Oregon, John Kitzhaber, announced that he would not seek a 4th term, Merkley said that he would run for Governor rather than a second Senate term. In his speech, Merkley shared many of Alexander's frustrations with the Senate. "In 2008, the people of Oregon sent e to Washington to help implement bold changes. While I value every day I spend here representing them, the Senate itself is not geared towards progress. I think I can better serve the the people of Oregon in the Governor's office."

Democratic strategists breathed a sigh of relief when Senator Tim Johnson announced his plans to seek a 4th term. Johnson remains personally popular in an otherwise Republican-leaning state. Former Governor Mike Rounds, a Republican, is considering a race. Pollster Tom Jensen said "Democrats are very lucky Johnson is running again; he leads Rounds 49-40. While South Dakota is still not a slam-dunk for Democrats, Johnson is very formidable. By comparison, if he had decided to retire, Rounds would be up 52-34 in an open-seat contest against a generic Democrat. The distinction is obvious, a Johnson retirement would have been devastating to Democrats" Jensen added "In an open-seat contest, Rounds would have led former Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin by a slimmer 48-43. Finally, if Rep. Kristi Noem were to run against Johnson, she'd start out trailing 50-40." Herseth-Sandlin has ruled out running for elected office in 2014.

In addition to these retirements, several Republicans face competitive primaries. Senator Jeff Sessions (AL), Pat Roberts (KS) and Lindsay Graham (SC) all face primaries to their right. Only one Democrat, Max Baucus (MT), has drawn a strong primary opponent.

Sessions faces tea party challenger Rick Barber, who ran for Congress in 2010. While Sessions has carved out a prominent profile as a leading conservative on the Judiciary Committee, Parker maintains that Sessions "at one time probably had our state's best interests at heart, he has become nothing more than a rank-and-file Republican, entrenched in Washington culture and special interest."

Senator Pat Roberts faces GOP House frosh Tim Huelskamp. Huelskamp was one of dozens of tea party freshmen swept in during the 2010 elections. Kansas' other Senator, Jerry  Moran, is backing Roberts. Sarah Palin and the Tea Party Express have endorsed Huelskamp.

Senator Graham has been on the tea party 'traitor list' for quite a while. Talk show hosts, such as Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, have labeled Grahama as a 'weak, McCain RINO.' "Guber-Lindsay Graham voted for the bailout, he worked with Barbara Boxer on climate and he voted for both of Obama radical Supreme Court justices" said Levin. "Does this man sound like a Republican to you!? If we conservatives are going to take back our country, its not gonna be with sellouts like this! He's a Charlie Crist-type phony!" In fact, there is strong speculation that Graham may actually run as an independent. His fellow Senator, Jim DeMint, has endorsed Rep. Mick Mulvaney over Graham. In primary polling, Mulvaney leads Graham 52-43.

Open Seat Map

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/openseats2014.png)


538.com 2014 Senate Ratings
(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/INITIALRATINGS2014.png)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 29, 2011, 06:40:04 pm
Love it !


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Ron DeSanchez on October 29, 2011, 09:20:04 pm
Could Hank Williams make another Senate run? With Alexander gone, the field is clear.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on October 29, 2011, 09:25:19 pm
Could Hank Williams make another Senate run? With Alexander gone, the field is clear.

Eh, after what he said on Fox, I'm keeping him out my TL! haha

Corker would have an early lead.

Tennessee GOP Primary polling:

Corker- 43%
Blackburn- 36%
Unsure- 21%


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: RodPresident on October 30, 2011, 11:08:45 am
I think that Henry should skip 2014 and try for Coburn's seat in 2016. Fallin has it on bag. A great contest will be in Texas and I can see Cornyn being primaried from the right. Democrats have a good opportunity to take Senate seat for first time in 53 years. Statewide election is also another very important thing. I can see KBH trying to get governorship as Independent.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on October 30, 2011, 01:26:36 pm
I don't think Henry would want to run for Senate. Despite a 52/36 favorable rating, he'd still narrowly trail Tom Cole and J.C Watts in an open-seat contest. (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2009/PPP_Release_OK_519.pdf)

I think you'll like my plans for TX Governor!


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: RodPresident on October 30, 2011, 02:07:47 pm
State contests will be a great thing in 2014. Great Lakes' states are going to have great disputes. Unfortunately, I think that SD is a lost cause. I'd love to see Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin trying governorship but Daugaard isn't a candidate to beat in 2014. Nebraska would be a great place to Democrats to try get a gubernatorial post, like Idaho


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on October 30, 2011, 02:12:34 pm
My next few posts will be about Governors races; I've kinda focused on the Senate lately, but I'll switch gears.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 11, 2011, 01:28:06 pm
Update this weekend.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on November 11, 2011, 02:05:04 pm
I'd love to see Rick Perry go down to Julian Castro or Bill White. :)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 11, 2011, 06:44:59 pm
I'd love to see Rick Perry go down to Julian Castro or Bill White. :)
Not exactly what I have in store, but I don't think you'll be disappointed.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 12, 2011, 07:18:17 pm
TEXAS SET TO BE CRUCIAL BATTLEGROUND GOV RACE

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/txgov.png)

In Texas, 2014 will feature an electoral event that has not taken place since 1990: an open-seat contest for its highest statewide office. Last week, Governor Rick Perry, who has led Texas for 14 years, announced his choice to retire, though he would legally entitled to seek a 4th term.

"I thought that this would be a good time. It was hard for me to turn down to the opportunity to serve the people of Texas for another 4 years. The growth that Texas has experienced since I took over in 2000 has been remarkable; I can only hope that my succotash continues that legacy of low taxes and economic success."
"Part of the reason Perry decided to hang up the phone is that he isn't a particularly popular Governor" said PPP's Tom Jensen. "Our last survey showed only 38% of Texas approved of him while 48% didn't. Even worse, only 26% wanted him to run again in 2014 versus 53% who wanted him to step aside."

Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst announced his plans to seek a promotion. Normally, he would be the frontrunner, but he has drawn a challenge from his right in Solicter-General Ted Cruz. "The primary is going to be brutal" said one Texas GOP insider "both men are great fundraisers." Ted Cruz promises a "truly conservative vision for Texas" and maintains that Dewhusrt is a career Republican politician. "As Governor, I won't take part in the backroom deals that Dewhurst has done. I've spent my whole career arguing for conservative, limited-government; I'm prepared to take that fight all the way to the Texas Governor's Mansion." Dewhurst counted by pointing to his own accomplishments; "working with Governor Perry, Texas has weathered the recession very well. Our unemployment rate is under the national average and our agricultural and technological sectors are still going strong."
Senators Cornyn and Bush as well as Governor Perry have all endorsed Dewhurst while the Club for Growth, the Tea Party Express and Americans for Prosperity have backed Cruz. Governors Jindal (LA) and Martinez (NM) have both endorsed Cruz while Fallin (OK) is endorsing Dewhurst.

The Democratic primary seems to be just as entertaining. Cecile Richards, daughter of the late Governor Ann Richards is running against former Congressman Max Sandlin. Richards was the President of Planned Parenthood; while she's more in touch with the Democratic base, some see the more conservative-minded Sandlin as more electable in the general. "Ever since my mother left office, Republicans have been hard at work trying to take the state backwards. I'm running because I think the Democratic party has a lot to offer Texas and I want to put Texas back on the right track by picking up where my mother left off." Sandlin plans on winning the general election by reaching out to normally Republican-leaning voters. "In Congress, I represented rural Texas, thats where I come from and that's what I will emphasize. While the Democratic party in Texas is growing , we must stay true to our rural roots. I want to take a common-sense, non-ideological approach to governing; that's what my record will show."
Sandlin, a hunting enthusiast, has already secured one crucial bargaining chip in the election: the NRA's endorsement. Sandlin also has endorsements from Governors Taylor of Mississippi and Senators Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor of Arkansas. Still, many in the party state leadership have endorsed Richards, including Congressmen Sheila Jackson-Lee, Gene Greene and Lloyd Doggett.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 12, 2011, 07:28:08 pm
Cecile Richards would be a great governor, but I'm not sure Texans would vote for her. Max Sandlin is a Joe Manchin kind of democrat... A DINO, but better than a insane republican.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 12, 2011, 09:32:44 pm
IN OH, MA, BROWNS SEEK COMEBACKS

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/maohgov.png)

2012 was not a good year to be a Senator with the last name "Brown"; both Scott Brown of Massachusetts and Sherrod Brown lost their reelection bids. Still, 2014 may bring comeback chances for both of them. Both Massachusetts and Ohio will feature open-seat Gubernatorial races; Governor Duval Patrick, rather than seeking a third term, will take over the DNC in 2015, while Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio is term-limited.
"The good news for both Browns is that, while they were both voted out of office in 2012, voters in both states still see them positively" says Jensen. "Scott Brown stands at a good 48/35 favorable spread. Sherrod Brown is decently popular as well, standing at 45/35."

In 2010, Ohio was the closest Gubernatorial races in the county; Strickland won by less than 1,000 votes.  John Kasich, the Republican, is running again for Governor. What may help Brown is that Legislative Republicans in the Assembly have proposed anti-union legislation that has been widely unpopular; Republican majorities are so large that they were able to override Strickland's veto. Early on, Kasich endorsed this legislation; that may hurt him this time around. The economy in Ohio is also improving, so the overall environment will not be as hostile towards Democrats; unemployment has dropped from 9.6% in 2010 to 8.0%.
PPP has Brown up 5% in Kasich, 45% to 40%. Voters are mum on Strickland, giving him a 46/50 approval rating; while that may sound subpar, Assembly Republicans incredibly unpopular, at 34/52. 

In Massachusetts, Governor Deval Patrick remains popular, posting a solid 51% approval rating while only 37% disapprove. Still, President Obama announced that he tapped Patrick to be the next DNC Chairman in 2015, when current Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz steps down; this prompted Patrick to forgo seeking a 3rd term. Patrick's Lieutenant Governor, Tim Murray said thet he will seek the promotion to Governor. In polling, Brown posts a slight lead over Murray, 47% to 43%. "While Massachusetts is a Democratic state, we have seen that its voters are still open to supporting moderate Republicans for statewide offices; Governors Romney and Weld come to mind. We think that Scott Brown is such a Republican. Voters have said that while they prefer Democrats on the federal level, they'd be willing to vote Republican on the more local level" said RGA Chair Bobby Jindal. "The Massachusetts Gubernatorial race was competitive in 2010 and I think that, with Scott, Republicans can do well in the Bay State this cycle."


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Cath on November 12, 2011, 09:37:20 pm
If Scott Brown wins in 2014, will moderates be hoping for a 2016 campaign? While I wouldn't support Brown in the primaries, I've found the prospect of a Brown campaign interesting and I merely liked the idea that he had won Ted Kennedy's seat. I hope there's a future for him as a running-mate, though I doubt the GOP would trust another Massachusetts Republican on a national ticket in 2016. Hoping for a good Southern or Mid-Western Conservative in 2016.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 25, 2011, 05:50:00 am
'Ya know, just to expedite things, I think I'll just jump to Election Day 2014.

...I'll have a few updates coming.


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on November 28, 2011, 01:00:50 pm
All right, I have final exams fast approaching next week, so I probably won't get to focus on updates. 'Gotta prioritize! I'll be done with exams by December 8th though.

I HAVEN'T FORGOTTEN ABOUT THIS TL!! :) I have some good stuff down the line!

For most of December and January, I'll be back and forth between Baton Rouge, New Orleans and Charlotte, but I'll have plenty of time for the TL and Election Night 2014. I'm hoping to be done with Election Night 2014 by early/mid-January so I can move to the 2016 Presidential race!

Cheers,
Miles


Until then....

(http://dudestuff.com/GEAUX_TIGERS!.gif)


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: morgieb on December 14, 2011, 02:56:26 am
Miles, what was the original 2020 scenario?

Also, are you gonna restart this?


Title: Re: 2011 and Beyond...
Post by: Miles on December 26, 2011, 08:24:03 pm
Miles, what was the original 2020 scenario?

Also, are you gonna restart this?

I'm actually making an entirely new TL, but based off this storyline.

My very first TL is over in the 2010 Senate prediction threads. I'll have to do some digging for it; it wasn't as detailed as this one. Basically, I had Charlie Crist/Blanche Lincoln (D) beating Paul Ryan/Scott Brown (R) for President in 2020.