Talk Elections

Jon Tester (D) vs. Marc Racicot (R): 42-49
Jon Tester (D) vs. Denny Rehberg (R): 46-48

Jon Tester (D) vs. Steve Daines (R): 48-37
Jon Tester (D) vs. Neil Livingstone (R): 46-35

...

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jon Tester's job performance?

50-40

...

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Max Baucus’ job performance?

38-53

...

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_1116ND.pdf

He's running better against Rehberg than against Racicot? He's more popular than Baucus? What?

LOL at Baucus. I guess palling around with DC lobbyists doesn't play that well at Missoula or Bozeman.

But hey, no problem. Maybe next time he will call his friends, Grassley and Enzi, to campaign for him and vouch for his bipartisanship.

Didn't Baucus spend most of last year making a complete tit out of himself? In public?

Yeah but he's Max Baucus in Montana.

Looks like I haven't learned the lesson I've been reminding others of...

Totally. I think the guy may be getting senile - I'm serious.

Not bad.

Needs more Kelleher.

What about a rematch against Conrad Montana  Burns.

I think the Louvre has a policy that bars mummies from seeking political office.

I actually don't think this performance is half bad for him.  I thought he might be in Blanche Lincoln territory right now.

Stronger than I would have imagined.

On the subject of Tester, does anyone else find he looks 20 years younger than he is?

The healthcare debate brought Baucus' numbers down. If he were up this year then he'd be in Blanche Lincoln territory.

Rehberg would be a fool to give up his safe House seat. Unless Rehberg or Racicot runs, Tester doesn't have much to worry about.

I wonder if Rehburg wouldn't just wait until 2014 and Baucus to get a chance at a Senate seat. Not that he wouldn't have a good chance in 2012, but still.

Then again, Baucus might retire and that might bring about a matchup with Schweitzer.

Rehberg has always struck me as a guy who's just kind of there; he's never had to run a tough race in his life (he was appointed Lt. Governor, and even for his first term in the House the Democrats put a nobody up), so he might not want to risk going up against a strong opponent. He could always just wait until 2014, since Baucus looks like an easier target at this point (plus Baucus might just retire).

I personally think Rehberg will run; he's well-liked statewide, has been re-elected overwhelmingly, and is facing a weak-ish incumbent. He runs now, instead of waiting until 2014.

If Schwietzer runs in 2014 instead of running for president in 2016, then the senate seat is his, barring new developments that happen over the course of the next four years.

Marc Racicot is of course the best option but he doesn't want to be in the Senate.


Tester is in a stronger position then I expected, I still think the GOP will end up targetting this seat though.

This is pretty good news for Tester given that this is pretty much the lowest point for Democrats. 

A lot of differences between the two, but at this point, Coleman was ahead in the polls by like 18 points.

Carnahan was ahead by about as much as those GOPers in January 2009.

Don't forget this is a registered voter poll, so the Republicans would probably do about 5 points better than this in an actual election

Baucus will pull through when its time for re-election.  He's got that Reid teflon.  Tester seems popular enough to stay around.

Also, the Montana GOP is a joke and will likely fumble at the opportunity. 

Well, that didn't take long.

Tester iss a good man and he is polling better than expected... If 2012 numbers for obama in MT aren't THAT bad, I can see him getting reelected easily ;)

I'm so surprised - why would Tester have such high approval ratings in one of the most anti-government states in the nation? Especially when the approval ratings of other senators (especially ones who voted for "Obamacare") are tanking?

At this point, only registered voter polls are done, it's far to early to even say that anyone would do better in the actual election, because the likely voter screen isn't formed yet.

?

Rehberg was the 1996 nominee against Baucus.

Missed that. Oh well, never mind.

Has there ever been an election where Democrats didn't do worse in the actual electorate rather than "Registered voters"?  It's an important trend to note.

The 2012 MT US Senate Race between Tester-D vs Rehberg-R will be similar to the 2002 SD US Senate Race between Johnson-D- a weak First term Democratic Incumbent from a Red State. vs Thune- a popular Republican at large US House Member.  2002 was a Republican leaning midterm election year- George W Bush was highly popular- during the 2002 Midterm election cycle- Post 9-11/Pre Iraq War.  Johnson-D narrowly defeated Thune-R during the 2002 SD US Senate Race.