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Election Archive => 2012 Elections => Topic started by: Kevin on November 26, 2010, 10:34:37 pm



Title: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Kevin on November 26, 2010, 10:34:37 pm
Is President Obama destined to lose reelection in 2012 and drag the Democratic Party's prospects down with him? I'm asking this question because even though there is a strong chance that Obama can pull what Clinton did after the 1994 midterm's and rebuild his political fortunes, he is facing much more daunting prospects then his Democratic predecessor did in the 1990's, As the current economic situation is very dire and appears to becoming even more so by the month, and predictions for the future aren't rosy ether as in 2011 the economic and financial situation in the US and abroad is predicted to be even worse with more bailouts here and in Europe, along the increasing possibility of double-dip recession and further shrinkage within the real estate market. Which to be fair alot of isn't his fault, as much of the recent turmoil is driven by economic events beyond US borders, and the fact that he inherited this crisis(even though he hasn't made it any better, if not worse)

Going on this I'm starting to believe that Obama will lose reelection in 2012 for the reasons I listed above, and that any Republican barring Palin or maybe Gingrich would beat him.


I now this sounds rash ad hackish to some to say this, this is just what my intuition is telling me.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 26, 2010, 10:41:28 pm
It all depends on the economy.  If Obama can get unemployment below 8% by June 2012, he will probably win reelection.  I say June because that is usually when opinions harden about a bad economy.  A strong third quarter and declining unemployment after June 1992 didnt help Bush 41 at all. 


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Beet on November 26, 2010, 10:49:57 pm
My intuition tells me Obama will lose re-election.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Poundingtherock on November 26, 2010, 10:53:04 pm
No, he is not destined to lose.

It's hilarious that this is coming from a Mark Kirk supporter, one of the biggest political hacks and outrageous liars to run for office. And I'm a pretty conservative guy as well.  I don't care whether you are a republican or democrat but anyone who lies about his or her military service like Kirk did should be shunned completely.  Even though Alexi was worse, that so many Republicans blindly supported this fool suggests to me that this party has some issues.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: tpfkaw on November 26, 2010, 11:08:02 pm
Yes.  Unemployment will still be above 9% in November 2012.  However, Palin might make it close.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: redcommander on November 26, 2010, 11:44:32 pm
No, he is not destined to lose.

It's hilarious that this is coming from a Mark Kirk supporter, one of the biggest political hacks and outrageous liars to run for office. And I'm a pretty conservative guy as well.  I don't care whether you are a republican or democrat but anyone who lies about his or her military service like Kirk did should be shunned completely.  Even though Alexi was worse, that so many Republicans blindly supported this fool suggests to me that this party has some issues.

He was a million times better than Alexi on policy though which is the important thing. Still the military issue like in Conneticut made the race close when it shouldn't have been. It Roskam had run he would have wiped the floor with Giannoulias.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 26, 2010, 11:55:19 pm
Destined clearly isn't the right word. Is he on the road to losing re-election? Yes, I believe so...but we're two years away. Things can change. I think his style is going to be the big problem. He's set on standing his ground. If things don't drastically change for the better and he is still set in his ways, he's very likely to lose. I only say "very likely" because my party could screw things up.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: #IAintAfraidOfNoGoats on November 27, 2010, 12:01:52 am
I think Palin can very well beat Obama. If Romney is the nominee Obama will win. If Romney isn't the nominee, it's gonna be another good election for the GOP.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 27, 2010, 12:02:35 am
It has nothing to with destiny, just choices.

Obama is not in as bad a position as some would like to believe. It's 2 years to go, we don't know who he's going up against... so many variables, and so much time left.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on November 27, 2010, 12:16:33 am
I think he is probably going to win so no.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Reaganfan on November 27, 2010, 12:25:12 am
I think a bigger problem is that the American electorate just seems tired of all politicians at all levels and is willing to dump parties or persons in power every cycle. See: Ohio 2004-2010. Went from GOP in Presidency 2004, to DEM in 2006 Midterms, to DEM in Presidency in 2008, to GOP in 2010 Midterms.



Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: #IAintAfraidOfNoGoats on November 27, 2010, 12:37:50 am
I think a bigger problem is that the American electorate just seems tired of all politicians at all levels and is willing to dump parties or persons in power every cycle. See: Ohio 2004-2010. Went from GOP in Presidency 2004, to DEM in 2006 Midterms, to DEM in Presidency in 2008, to GOP in 2010 Midterms.




Which could lead to some Libertarians winning soon. I think we might be in the mist of a change in the party system.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: pbrower2a on November 27, 2010, 01:53:18 am
Destined clearly isn't the right word. Is he on the road to losing re-election? Yes, I believe so...but we're two years away. Things can change. I think his style is going to be the big problem. He's set on standing his ground. If things don't drastically change for the better and he is still set in his ways, he's very likely to lose. I only say "very likely" because my party could screw things up.

It is possible to interpret the 2010 election as proof that Americans have begun to show renewed faith in an agenda that promises lower wages, less economic certainty, harsher working conditions, and higher taxes for the non-rich while promoting a ravaged environment, regulatory relief, swifter depletion of natural resources, wars for profit and control of natural resources, easier collection of debts, and lower taxes for the super-rich in return for promises of Pie in the Sky When You Die. If such is the valid interpretation, then America is Italy in 1922 or Japan around 1934 and Americans deserve the consequences. Masochists deserve what sadists inflict upon them. Otherwise, 2010 is the Last Hurrah for the Hard Right.   

Oh, can the GOP screw up! Because the GOP is essentially the same entity that it was between 1994 and 2006 when it had the majority, and has not changed positions except to go further to the Right, it risks alienating the voters who stayed home in 2010 after 2008 and many who made the voted for someone like Pat Toomey in 2010. This is especially true in the House of Representatives should the GOP leadership waste efforts on "proving" pseudoscience like Young-Earth Creationism or the denial of anthropogenic global warming -- or beginning inquisitions of people for "lack of patriotism" (as Reps. Daniel Issa and Michelle Bachmann have promised) for failing to share the GOP agenda. Corporate America owns the House of Representatives, and that can have ugly consequences. A government that effectively serves only 5% of the people while $crewing most of the rest can get extremely unpopular.  Wave elections sweep in some turkeys and poor fits, and such may have happened in 2008 -- and 2010 alike.

I wouldn't count out the Left forming its own mirror image of the Tea Party with similar results.  I can already think of an image of GOP politicians who have decided that the Oil Cartel has the right to set policies on energy and transportation -- the "Gusher of Greed", with GOP pols grabbing campaign contributions emanating from an oil well. I could also think of an image of a business executive with a whip in one hand and a bottle of whiskey (to dissolve what little conscience is left).

If the electorate of 2012 looks much like that of 2008, then the GOP is in deep trouble and not only because President Obama will be re-elected. The GOP needed to do some soul-searching after its losses in 2006 and 2008 and instead read Machiavelli for guidance. Every House seat will be up for grabs. Sure, the Democrats face potentially few gains in the Senate because only ten GOP seats are up for grabs:

State    Senator    Last election %
Montana    Jon Tester (D)    49%
Connecticut    Joe Lieberman (I)    50%
Missouri    Claire McCaskill (D)    50%
Virginia    Jim Webb (D)    50%
Tennessee    Bob Corker (R)    51%
Massachusetts    Scott Brown (R)    52%
Arizona    Jon Kyl (R)    53%
New Jersey    Bob Menendez (D)    53%
Rhode Island    Sheldon Whitehouse (D)    53%
West Virginia    Joe Manchin (D)    54%
Maryland    Ben Cardin (D)    54%
Mississippi    Roger Wicker (R)    55%
Nevada    John Ensign (R)    55%
Ohio    Sherrod Brown (D)    56%
Michigan    Debbie Stabenow (D)    57%
Washington    Maria Cantwell (D)    57%
Minnesota    Amy Klobuchar (D)    58%
California    Dianne Feinstein (D)    59%
Pennsylvania    Bob Casey, Jr. (D)    59%
Florida    Bill Nelson (D)    60%
Hawaii    Daniel Akaka (D)    61%
Texas    Kay Bailey Hutchison (R)    62%
Utah    Orrin Hatch (R)    62%
New York    Kirsten Gillibrand (D)    62%
Nebraska    Ben Nelson (D)    64%
Vermont    Bernie Sanders (I)    65%
Wisconsin    Herb Kohl (D)    67%
North Dakota    Kent Conrad (D)    69%
Delaware    Tom Carper (D)    70%
New Mexico    Jeff Bingaman (D)    71%
Wyoming    John Barrasso (R)    73%
Maine    Olympia Snowe (R)    74%
Indiana    Richard Lugar (R)    87%   

 
Any Democrat who won by less than 60%  in 2006 or later is vulnerable until I see otherwise. Imaginable Democratic pick-ups (not counting Joe Lieberman) are Senate seats in Massachusetts (it is Massachusetts), Nevada (John Ensign -- enough said), Arizona (should the anti-alien demagoguery of the GOP backfire), Texas (probably an open seat), and Maine (should Olympia Snowe be tea-bagged).  But that is only "imaginable", and give enough "ifs" and the likelihood of a set of independent events happening  shrinks to near zero.. I can see at least seven easy pick-ups for the GOP if the electorate is as in 2010 (MT, MO, WV, MI, VA, OH, NE) which, with GOP maintenance of the House and a defeat of Obama could aid in turning America into a Christian and Corporate (a/k/a fascist) State.




Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: © tweed on November 27, 2010, 12:38:49 pm
destiny is a retroactive thing


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Liberalrocks on November 27, 2010, 02:20:57 pm
Considering where Reagan and Clinton's approval ratings were at this time in their presidency I am not willing to right off the chances of Obama. Then we have a GOP field in which many of the prospective candidates would lucky to get 200 electoral votes. If they nominate Caribou Barbie its over! She will do worse then McCain and get crushed in a landslide. Huckabee wont do better then the deep south and Romney is slimy and untrustable. Thune would be competitive but may be too socially conservative. He certaintly would do better then Palin and Huck.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: J. J. on November 27, 2010, 02:32:25 pm
Are we facing a realignment?

2010 may have been the R version of 1930.

Had McCain won, I'd be predicting an Obama victory in 2012.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: phk on November 27, 2010, 06:54:56 pm
I think he will be one of the few incumbents who does worse the 2nd time around.

I think he can pull off a 2004 style Bush victory if the economic numbers are right and terrorism worries are declining.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Penelope on November 27, 2010, 07:24:37 pm
Are we facing a realignment?

2010 may have been the R version of 1930.

Had McCain won, I'd be predicting an Obama victory in 2012.

Not really. 1946 is about where we are, based on what I'm hearing from the GOP, and seeing in polls.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: White Cloud on November 27, 2010, 08:07:12 pm
Republicans have been ceding about 250 electoral votes to the Democrat in every presidential election since 1992. Democrats have a solid bloc of states in the northeast, upper Midwest, and west coast that nets them about 250 electoral votes. Win those states and all the Democrat has to do is pick up another 20 EV's to win the election. Given that Obama is almost certain to win that bloc of states that every Democrat has won since 1992, the election will hinge on whether or not Obama can add to that bloc one of:

1) Virginia
2) Ohio
3) Florida

And/or add a combination of Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada to put him over 270.

I think that Obama is in a good position to do that with the African-American vote in Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada, the Hispanic vote in New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado, and the support that he has had in Iowa since his caucus win in 2008.

The big thing that Obama has going for him is the African-American vote. That is his firewall that will keep Republicans from being able to break through in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. It also helps him in a state like Virginia, where if he maximizes the African-American turnout, it makes that state more competitive.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Penelope on November 27, 2010, 08:13:56 pm
Republicans have been ceding about 250 electoral votes to the Democrat in every presidential election since 1992. Democrats have a solid bloc of states in the northeast, upper Midwest, and west coast that nets them about 250 electoral votes. Win those states and all the Democrat has to do is pick up another 20 EV's to win the election. Given that Obama is almost certain to win that bloc of states that every Democrat has won since 1992, the election will hinge on whether or not Obama can add to that bloc one of:

1) Virginia
2) Ohio
3) Florida

And/or add a combination of Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada to put him over 270.

I think that Obama is in a good position to do that with the African-American vote in Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada, the Hispanic vote in New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado, and the support that he has had in Iowa since his caucus win in 2008.

The big thing that Obama has going for him is the African-American vote. That is his firewall that will keep Republicans from being able to break through in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. It also helps him in a state like Virginia, where if he maximizes the African-American turnout, it makes that state more competitive.

Considering that the Southwest has been trending towards the Democrats since at least 2000, I would say Obama only has to win Ohio, and he's won the election. To be honest I don't see where everyone's getting the idea that Obama is in a position to lose states like Michigan, Wisconsin and New Mexico, all states which voted for him by upwards of 55%.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: White Cloud on November 27, 2010, 08:43:28 pm
Republicans have been ceding about 250 electoral votes to the Democrat in every presidential election since 1992. Democrats have a solid bloc of states in the northeast, upper Midwest, and west coast that nets them about 250 electoral votes. Win those states and all the Democrat has to do is pick up another 20 EV's to win the election. Given that Obama is almost certain to win that bloc of states that every Democrat has won since 1992, the election will hinge on whether or not Obama can add to that bloc one of:

1) Virginia
2) Ohio
3) Florida

And/or add a combination of Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada to put him over 270.

I think that Obama is in a good position to do that with the African-American vote in Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada, the Hispanic vote in New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado, and the support that he has had in Iowa since his caucus win in 2008.

The big thing that Obama has going for him is the African-American vote. That is his firewall that will keep Republicans from being able to break through in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. It also helps him in a state like Virginia, where if he maximizes the African-American turnout, it makes that state more competitive.

Considering that the Southwest has been trending towards the Democrats since at least 2000, I would say Obama only has to win Ohio, and he's won the election. To be honest I don't see where everyone's getting the idea that Obama is in a position to lose states like Michigan, Wisconsin and New Mexico, all states which voted for him by upwards of 55%.

I don't know how the EV's will change for 2012, but I believe that Obama will be able to get to 270 without Ohio, Florida, or Virginia. He would need to win the northeast bloc from DC to Maine (including New Hampshire), the upper Midwest bloc from Michigan to Minnesota, and the west coast bloc from Washington to California, including Hawaii. Then he would need to pick up Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada, all states that he won comfortably in 2008. I believe that would be enough for 270. He doesn't need Ohio or Florida. But just like in 2008, his campaign manager is going to construct scenarios where Obama can win with different combinations of states.

I think that Republicans speculate about winning rust belt states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin because they think that region is their best place to break into the Democratic bloc. They are probably right, too. They aren't going to break into California, Oregon, and Washington. They are dead as a party in the northeast, except for New Hampshire. But I think that in 2012 at least, the African-American vote in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and to a lesser extent Wisconsin, will be Obama's firewall, which will keep Republicans from being able to win those states.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Kevin on November 27, 2010, 11:22:11 pm
Republicans have been ceding about 250 electoral votes to the Democrat in every presidential election since 1992. Democrats have a solid bloc of states in the northeast, upper Midwest, and west coast that nets them about 250 electoral votes. Win those states and all the Democrat has to do is pick up another 20 EV's to win the election. Given that Obama is almost certain to win that bloc of states that every Democrat has won since 1992, the election will hinge on whether or not Obama can add to that bloc one of:

1) Virginia
2) Ohio
3) Florida

And/or add a combination of Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada to put him over 270.

I think that Obama is in a good position to do that with the African-American vote in Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada, the Hispanic vote in New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado, and the support that he has had in Iowa since his caucus win in 2008.

The big thing that Obama has going for him is the African-American vote. That is his firewall that will keep Republicans from being able to break through in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. It also helps him in a state like Virginia, where if he maximizes the African-American turnout, it makes that state more competitive.

Considering that the Southwest has been trending towards the Democrats since at least 2000, I would say Obama only has to win Ohio, and he's won the election. To be honest I don't see where everyone's getting the idea that Obama is in a position to lose states like Michigan, Wisconsin and New Mexico, all states which voted for him by upwards of 55%.

Considering the beatings the Democrats took in both Michigan and Wisconsin don't be so sure as they both trended right this past election. Especially Wisconsin, which threw out a well liked prominent, entrenched Democratic Senator, elected a Republican Governor along with GOP majorities in the State Legislature, in addition to giving Congressional Republicans a majority of the House delegation from the state. Michigan also gave the Republicans a solid victory in the Governor's race, and majorities in the State legislature. So overall, some Republican definate inroads were made into these "solidly" Democratic states.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Kevin on November 27, 2010, 11:29:17 pm
Destined clearly isn't the right word. Is he on the road to losing re-election? Yes, I believe so...but we're two years away. Things can change. I think his style is going to be the big problem. He's set on standing his ground. If things don't drastically change for the better and he is still set in his ways, he's very likely to lose. I only say "very likely" because my party could screw things up.

Perhaps I wasn't right using the world "destined" as things do change, but the present and projected future doesn't look too good for President Obama's reelection chances or the Democratic Party in general.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Reaganfan on November 28, 2010, 12:52:06 am
AT THIS POINT...here's what I see as likely.

The economy will be in bad shape.
The President's campaign will sound drastically different than 2008.
Young voter turnout will be greatly reduced
African American turnout will be greatly reduced
Teaparty/Conservative turnout will be increased
Republicans will gain 6 electoral votes in the 2012 EV changes

States Obama will likely lose:
Indiana
North Carolina
Nebraska CD-2

That gives Republicans 206 electoral votes.

The President has gone from his African American/Young voter energizing 2008 self to...well...an incumbent President. Add the gray hair and unpopularity and a bad set of circumstances economically...and his 2008 stardom is gone. SEE: Obama campaigning in 2010. He's looking at the likelihood of losing Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, and Florida. That alone gives the GOP 269, thus the Presidency.

Not to mention if a liberal, African American Democrat could win a Nebraska CD or Indiana, whose to say a conservative Republican can't win Minnesota or Pennsylvania?


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 28, 2010, 12:55:59 am
The irrational exuberance of Republicans on this forum is amusing.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Frodo on November 28, 2010, 01:02:53 am
Nym90 -please sticky this thread so we can all laugh at it two years from now.  


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Psychic Octopus on November 28, 2010, 01:06:24 am
Destined - no, and that is not quite the right word. I think that he'll have a hard fight ahead of him, though, considering that he'll need to do some arm-twisting and win back several key points of the electorate in order to be victorious.

Nym90 -please sticky this thread so we can all laugh at it (and Kevin) two years from now.  

What if he's right? Perhaps we should leave it how it is so we can see in two years.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on November 28, 2010, 02:15:38 am
African American turnout will be greatly reduced
Why? Why wouldn't they go out to support their guy?


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: opebo on November 28, 2010, 05:29:17 am
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;6&AZ=2;10;6&AR=2;6;6&CA=1;55;6&CO=0;9;3&CT=1;7;6&DE=1;3;6&DC=1;3;6&FL=2;27;6&GA=2;15;6&HI=1;4;6&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;21;6&IN=2;11;6&IA=1;7;3&KS=2;6;6&KY=2;8;6&LA=2;9;6&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;12;6&MI=1;17;3&MN=1;10;3&MS=2;6;6&MO=2;11;6&MT=2;3;6&NV=0;5;5&NH=2;4;3&NJ=1;15;6&NM=1;5;6&NY=1;31;6&NC=2;15;6&ND=2;3;6&OH=2;20;6&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;6&PA=1;21;3&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;6&TN=2;11;6&TX=2;34;6&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;6&VA=0;13;5&WA=1;11;6&WV=2;5;6&WI=0;10;5&WY=2;3;6&ME=1;2;6&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;6&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;6)

So, the red states are still solid, and the pink ones are leaning dem, while New Hampshire is the only one merely leaning GOP - most GOP states are quite solid I believe.  I still believe that Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia are not joining the anti-Democrat bandwagon as much as so many other states.

Personally I think it will be decided by Virgina:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;6&AZ=2;10;6&AR=2;6;6&CA=1;55;6&CO=1;9;3&CT=1;7;6&DE=1;3;6&DC=1;3;6&FL=2;27;6&GA=2;15;6&HI=1;4;6&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;21;6&IN=2;11;6&IA=1;7;3&KS=2;6;6&KY=2;8;6&LA=2;9;6&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;12;6&MI=1;17;3&MN=1;10;3&MS=2;6;6&MO=2;11;6&MT=2;3;6&NV=2;5;3&NH=2;4;3&NJ=1;15;6&NM=1;5;6&NY=1;31;6&NC=2;15;6&ND=2;3;6&OH=2;20;6&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;6&PA=1;21;3&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;6&TN=2;11;6&TX=2;34;6&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;6&VA=0;13;3&WA=1;11;6&WV=2;5;6&WI=1;10;3&WY=2;3;6&ME=1;2;6&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;6&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;6)


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: DS0816 on November 28, 2010, 06:58:18 am
Since the 17th Amendment was adopted in 1913, one only one commander in chief -- elected to at least two terms -- retained same-party majorities in Congress throughout his entire presidency: Franklin Roosevelt.

Woodrow Wilson lost the House and Senate in 1918. Dwight Eisenhower lost both in 1954. Richard Nixon never had same-party control of either house but suffered losses in 1970 and, after resigning, 1974. Ronald Reagan lost the Senate in 1986. Clinton did the same thing as Ike -- lost both in his Year 2, 1994. And George W. Bush lost twice: in the 2001 Senate, with Jim Jeffords (R-Vermont) leaving the 50-50 Senate to caucus with (and turn over majority control to) the Democrats; in 2006, with both houses.

Here's the voting pattern, for the most part, in our elections during the past 100 years: Turn over the White House to a party pickup president. Then watch the party flipped out of the White House come back for vengeance in midterms. Read and listen to people try and merge midterms with presidentials. Watch party pickup president win re-election.





Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: A Strange Reflection on November 28, 2010, 07:07:49 am
Anyone who claims to have the answer to this question at this point is a hack.

2006 : Is Obama destined to win in 2008 ? LOL
2008 : Are Republicans destined to take the House in 2010 ? LOL


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: pbrower2a on November 28, 2010, 12:17:20 pm
AT THIS POINT...here's what I see as likely.

The economy will be in bad shape.

Better than in early 2009, an Americans will be more patient.

Quote
The President's campaign will sound drastically different than 2008.

Unless it is "We are the grown-ups".
Quote
Young voter turnout will be greatly reduced

African American turnout will be greatly reduced

From 2008 or 2010? From 2010 only if GOP-dominated state governments can effectively cull the vote, which won't be easy, especially if the Federal courts have their way.

Quote
Teaparty/Conservative turnout will be increased

People will begin to see through the lies and greed.

Quote
Republicans will gain 6 electoral votes in the 2012 EV changes

Correct! You just won the teddy bear! Of course you could have gotten it cheaper at a discount store than having kept trying to win it at the carnival.

Quote
States Obama will likely lose:
Indiana
North Carolina
Nebraska CD-2


That gives Republicans 206 electoral votes.

Not too bad a prediction. Only problem: no President has won with between  57.1% (Truman, 1948) and 66.5% of the electoral vote (Taft, 1908) since 1900, which means that President Obama is likely to get under 307 electoral votes or more than 358 electoral votes, which means that the GOP nominee is likely to get either 180 or fewer electoral votes or 231 or more. Someone looking at losing 332-206 in electoral votes will take chances that either win the election outright, make things close, or make winning impossible.   


Quote
The President has gone from his African American/Young voter energizing 2008 self to...well...an incumbent President. Add the gray hair and unpopularity and a bad set of circumstances economically...and his 2008 stardom is gone. SEE: Obama campaigning in 2010. He's looking at the likelihood of losing Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, and Florida. That alone gives the GOP 269, thus the Presidency.

I see him winning all of the states that either Gore or Kerry won  and Colorado and Nevada, which is 273 electoral votes even with what you say. Republicans lost Senate races in Colorado and Nevada.  Turnout goes up -- way up -- in Presidential elections.

Quote
Not to mention if a liberal, African American Democrat could win a Nebraska CD or Indiana, whose to say a conservative Republican can't win Minnesota or Pennsylvania?

I could say the same of Texas by extension on behalf of President Obama. Watch the approval ratings for Senator Toomey in Pennsylvania and Senator Johnson in Wisconsin to see whether the GOP has a real chance to win the electoral votes of Minnesota (which is much like Wisconsin politically) or Pennsylvania. 


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: dead0man on November 28, 2010, 01:54:14 pm
The irrational exuberance of Republicans on this forum is amusing.
...as is the pessimism of the left.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on November 28, 2010, 01:58:26 pm
The irrational exuberance of Republicans on this forum is amusing.
...as is the pessimism of the left.

By "the left" you mean Beet? The guy who believe Christined O'Donnell was favored? Not exactly representative of the left I'd say.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: dead0man on November 28, 2010, 02:01:40 pm
touché


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Reaganfan on November 28, 2010, 04:30:42 pm
African American turnout will be greatly reduced
Why? Why wouldn't they go out to support their guy?

Enthusiasm will be gone. We elected the first black President. We did so in a year of the highest turnout ever, with a bitter Hillary vs. Obama primary with whom both at one point or another had high amounts of African American support. I can't see them rushing out at anywhere near the levels they did in 2008 next time to re-elect the President.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 28, 2010, 04:45:58 pm
African American turnout will be greatly reduced
Why? Why wouldn't they go out to support their guy?

Enthusiasm will be gone. We elected the first black President. We did so in a year of the highest turnout ever, with a bitter Hillary vs. Obama primary with whom both at one point or another had high amounts of African American support. I can't see them rushing out at anywhere near the levels they did in 2008 next time to re-elect the President.

Making declarative statements like this are a waste of time this far out, for all we know, the economy could have improved markedly and the GOP commits electoral suicide... or the economy remains sluggish and etc etc...


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Mechaman on November 28, 2010, 04:52:34 pm
Anyone who claims to have the answer to this question at this point is a hack.

2006 : Is Obama destined to win in 2008 ? LOL
2008 : Are Republicans destined to take the House in 2010 ? LOL

Smartest post yet in this entire thread.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Vice President PiT on November 28, 2010, 05:05:12 pm
Anyone who claims to have the answer to this question at this point is a hack.

2006 : Is Obama destined to win in 2008 ? LOL
2008 : Are Republicans destined to take the House in 2010 ? LOL

Smartest post yet in this entire thread.

     Quite true. We can make reasonable guesses as to what things will look like in 2012, but to say with certitude is impossible.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: pbrower2a on November 28, 2010, 05:34:59 pm
African American turnout will be greatly reduced
Why? Why wouldn't they go out to support their guy?

Enthusiasm will be gone. We elected the first black President. We did so in a year of the highest turnout ever, with a bitter Hillary vs. Obama primary with whom both at one point or another had high amounts of African American support. I can't see them rushing out at anywhere near the levels they did in 2008 next time to re-elect the President.

1. The youngest generation of voters (the ones that Howe and Strauss call the Millennial Generation)  will be an even larger part of the electorate.  Under 31, they will not yet have what might cause them to become cultural conservatives (teenage kids). They remain the most liberal generation in the electorate.

2. Few of the Millennial Generation will have yet to get fully entrenched in any economic gravy train. Most will still have either crappy jobs that pay a pittance or huge student loans. Neither crappy jobs more huge personal debt make one sympathetic to deflationary economics that the GOP promotes.

3. The Millennial Generation is quite rational. It has little use for the Culture Wars of Boomers, and generally none for the pseudoscience and superstition that older Boomers support on behalf of the Religious Right, the Religious Right very much an aging phenomenon. 

4. There will likely be no primary fight among Democrats. Among Republicans there will either be a knockdown, drag-out fight or there will be someone nominated (like Mondale in 1984) for "proven service to the Party".  Neither the survivor of a knock-down, drag-out primary struggle nor someone nominated as a reward for "longtime, dedicated service to the Party" ordinarily fares well in the general election.

5. President Obama showed himself one of the slickest campaigners in American history with one of the best-run campaign machines ever. The GOP will need someone about as effective a campaigner as Ronald Reagan to beat him. Such a candidate will have to be without any regional weaknesses. President Obama can beat any mediocrity.

6. An incumbent either runs on his record and wins or runs from it and loses. President Obama has much legislative success so far, and if he doesn't have many achievements between 2010 and 2012 he will offer a solution -- rebuild the Democratic majority in the House and hold the Democratic majority in the Senate so that he can do so again. 

7. The GOP gets to expose itself in the 112th Congress. If the American people like President Obama and the first priority of Republicans is to make sure that President Obama is defeated in 2012, then guess what happens. Darrell Issa and Michelle Bachmann, self-proclaimed Grand Inquisitors, could make lots of Americans regret having voted for Republicans in the House.

8. The fastest-growing part of the electorate is the Hispanic vote. Until Republicans can convince Mexican-Americans that the GOP isn't for the debasement of education, trickle-down economics, and the harassment of people who have an icon of the Virgin of Guadalupe in their cars, the GOP is going to have little credibility among non-Cuban Hispanics.

9. Watch for rifts between the Tea Party and the Corporate Power cliques.   

 


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Ben Romney on November 28, 2010, 06:17:19 pm
If the gOP nominate Palin he would win easily
but I dont think he will be our nominee in 2012


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Reaganfan on November 28, 2010, 06:26:53 pm
Quote
1. The youngest generation of voters (the ones that Howe and Strauss call the Millennial Generation)  will be an even larger part of the electorate.  Under 31, they will not yet have what might cause them to become cultural conservatives (teenage kids). They remain the most liberal generation in the electorate.

Doesn't change the fact that they won't be showing up in their 2008 numbers.

Quote
2. Few of the Millennial Generation will have yet to get fully entrenched in any economic gravy train. Most will still have either crappy jobs that pay a pittance or huge student loans. Neither crappy jobs more huge personal debt make one sympathetic to deflationary economics that the GOP promotes.

Incorrect. If anything, Obama's policies are becoming increasingly discussed among all ages as one of the reasons the economy is in the tank. "Tax and Spend liberal" fears have always kept us from electing President's like Obama, but now that we have and have seen what has transpired...Reaganomics and Bush-era tax policy appears more favorable than in 2008.

Quote
3. The Millennial Generation is quite rational. It has little use for the Culture Wars of Boomers, and generally none for the pseudoscience and superstition that older Boomers support on behalf of the Religious Right, the Religious Right very much an aging phenomenon.

Maybe among some issues, however the massive defeat of Gay Marriage in many states and the loss of dangerous drug legalization...even in a state like California...shows that many Americans still hold those issues dear. Remember, there are registered young voters in America...places like Mississippi, West Virginia, Texas, ect ect who may still go out and party and be promiscuous...but they believe in the sanctity of human life, the traditional values of marriage, and make it to Church every week.

Quote
4. There will likely be no primary fight among Democrats. Among Republicans there will either be a knockdown, drag-out fight or there will be someone nominated (like Mondale in 1984) for "proven service to the Party".  Neither the survivor of a knock-down, drag-out primary struggle nor someone nominated as a reward for "longtime, dedicated service to the Party" ordinarily fares well in the general election.

Clinton...Bush...Obama...are you serious?

Quote
5. President Obama showed himself one of the slickest campaigners in American history with one of the best-run campaign machines ever. The GOP will need someone about as effective a campaigner as Ronald Reagan to beat him. Such a candidate will have to be without any regional weaknesses. President Obama can beat any mediocrity.

But he is seen as a different Obama. In 2008, he was a "rock star". People voted for him just on the basis of his race, his speeches, ect. But then, suddenly....he became a President. Aging and rising unpopularity and suddenly being what needs the "change" will hurt him in 2012.

Quote
6. An incumbent either runs on his record and wins or runs from it and loses. President Obama has much legislative success so far, and if he doesn't have many achievements between 2010 and 2012 he will offer a solution -- rebuild the Democratic majority in the House and hold the Democratic majority in the Senate so that he can do so again.

This may be the President's biggest problem. He's not going to be having to battle for his re-election because he couldn't get things done. He's going to have to battle for his re-election because he did get the things done, and America, thus far, has not responded kindly. 

Quote
7. The GOP gets to expose itself in the 112th Congress. If the American people like President Obama and the first priority of Republicans is to make sure that President Obama is defeated in 2012, then guess what happens. Darrell Issa and Michelle Bachmann, self-proclaimed Grand Inquisitors, could make lots of Americans regret having voted for Republicans in the House.

Indeed, this is a wait and see. Let's hope our party learned it's lessons from 1995.

Quote
8. The fastest-growing part of the electorate is the Hispanic vote. Until Republicans can convince Mexican-Americans that the GOP isn't for the debasement of education, trickle-down economics, and the harassment of people who have an icon of the Virgin of Guadalupe in their cars, the GOP is going to have little credibility among non-Cuban Hispanics.

Not true, in fact...I'd guess that support peaked for Democrats in 2006 and 2008. I think in the coming years, with more diverse Republicans in office, and the plausible situation of a Marco Rubio candidacy, I think the GOP will improve in this area.

Quote
9. Watch for rifts between the Tea Party and the Corporate Power cliques.
   

The only possible national candidate who is doing right in this regard is Marco Rubio. Teapartiers love him, but he's not seen as a Teaparty candidate but rather a traditional, Reagan-mold conservative. Let's hope whoever we nominate in 2012, both sides of conservatives get behind.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 28, 2010, 06:30:56 pm
They don't actually need to come out in 2008 numbers in order for Obama to win...


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Reaganfan on November 28, 2010, 06:37:40 pm
They don't actually need to come out in 2008 numbers in order for Obama to win...

But it makes a difference. Remember, if a good chunk of those Circa-1996 "let me take my kids to Soccer practice, then rent them "Jumanji" then go to bed watching Stone Phillips on Dateline NBC talk about how a kid misbehaving needs medication" women hadn't shown up, Bill Clinton wouldn't have been re-elected President.

PS: Sorry for the anti-90s outburst, you know how I feel about that...and for that time I can say, I was there.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on November 28, 2010, 06:43:29 pm
I don't think he's destined to lose re-election, but I do think he's in a lot of trouble.  The economy is still in the toilet and jobs aren't being created as fast as the country needs.  I do think things have improved a little since Bush left office, but not enough to write home about.  I really think it all depends on the economy.  If it grows faster than what it has been, he might be alright, but if the economy stays stagnant he might be sleeping in Chicago the night of Sunday, January 20, 2013.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: villainsaff on November 29, 2010, 06:41:59 am
No.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Kalwejt on November 29, 2010, 08:53:21 am
Can Barack Obama be blamed for BushOK quittinglosing his previous job?


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 29, 2010, 11:39:44 am
He's not destined, but there's a good chance he will.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: ... on November 29, 2010, 03:07:12 pm
For the first time I think it's possible........I mean the libs here are far more venomous in attacking the guy than the conservatives or moderates, who are simply content to let him shoot himself in the foot.

Of course the pubs need a very strong candidate, and frankly I don't see one yet.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: pbrower2a on November 29, 2010, 07:42:30 pm
My old material in green
Your old material in blue



Quote
1. The youngest generation of voters (the ones that Howe and Strauss call the Millennial Generation)  will be an even larger part of the electorate.  Under 31, they will not yet have what might cause them to become cultural conservatives (teenage kids). They remain the most liberal generation in the electorate.

Doesn't change the fact that they won't be showing up in their 2008 numbers.

There will be more just because of the aging of one of the most liberal generations of voters. Nothing that the GOP is likely to do will make them more politically conservative. Indeed, make appeals for tax cuts that favor only the super-rich while either bloating the deficit or being offset by taxes that hit the non-rich, for wage cuts, or for destruction of workers' rights on behalf or economic elites, and young voters who have little immediate stake in dividends and share prices will vote their economic interests.

It is possible that the Hard Right was unusually-well organized in 2010 and many liberal-leaning voters stayed home; in Presidential elections the electorate usually expands.  
Quote
Quote
2. Few of the Millennial Generation will have yet to get fully entrenched in any economic gravy train. Most will still have either crappy jobs that pay a pittance or huge student loans. Neither crappy jobs more huge personal debt make one sympathetic to deflationary economics that the GOP promotes.

Incorrect. If anything, Obama's policies are becoming increasingly discussed among all ages as one of the reasons the economy is in the tank. "Tax and Spend liberal" fears have always kept us from electing President's like Obama, but now that we have and have seen what has transpired...Reaganomics and Bush-era tax policy appears more favorable than in 2008.

Memes such as "tax-and-spend liberal" weaken with time. the Hard Right will need fresh bromides for 2012.  

Quote
Quote
3. The Millennial Generation is quite rational. It has little use for the Culture Wars of Boomers, and generally none for the pseudoscience and superstition that older Boomers support on behalf of the Religious Right, the Religious Right very much an aging phenomenon.

Maybe among some issues, however the massive defeat of Gay Marriage in many states and the loss of dangerous drug legalization...even in a state like California...shows that many Americans still hold those issues dear. Remember, there are registered young voters in America...places like Mississippi, West Virginia, Texas, ect ect who may still go out and party and be promiscuous...but they believe in the sanctity of human life, the traditional values of marriage, and make it to Church every week.

President Obama won't be running on gay marriage or the legalization of marijuana, itself much less dangerous than stupidwater (alcohol). As for Mississippi, Texas, and West Virginia, he lost those states in 2008, and it would take miracles to win any one of them.  The economic situation and foreign/military policy will matter far more in 2012 than in 2008. In 2008 Senator Obama ran on promises. In 2012 he runs on his record and wins or runs from it and loses.

So you tell me how President Obama loses:

These are the states decided by margins less than 12% in 2008:


State            Electoral        Total       (meaningless) Vote          Pct
                      Votes            Votes                           Margin      margin
        

Pennsylvania   21   0   6,015,476   1   2   620,478   10.31%   
Minnesota   10   0   2,910,369   1   2   297,945   10.24%   
NH                    4   0   710,970           1   2   68,292   9.61%   
Iowa            7   0   1,537,123   1   2   146,561   9.53%   
Colorado        9   0   2,401,462   1   2   215,004   8.95%   
Virginia           13   0   3,723,260   1   2   234,527   6.30%   
Ohio                   20   0   5,721,815   1   2   262,224   4.58%   
Florida           27   0   8,411,861   1   2   236,148   2.81%   
Indiana           11   0   2,756,340   1   2   28,391   1.03%   
North Carolina   15   0   4,310,789   1   2   14,177   0.33%   
Missouri           0   11   2,929,111   2   1   3,903   0.13%   
Montana           0     3   492,750      2   1   11,723   2.38%
Georgia         0   15   3,932,158   2   1   204,636   5.20%   
South Dakota   0     3    381,975           2   1   32,130   8.41%
Arizona          0   10   2,303,838   2   1   195,404   8.48%
North Dakota   0     3   317,738           2   1   27,484   8.65%   
South Carolina   0     8   1,920,969   2   1   172,447   8.98%   
Texas           0   34   8,087,402   2   1   950,695   11.76%   

The 2010 Senate election showed that Colorado is probably a stronger Democratic state than either Iowa or New Hampshire. Should President Obama win every state that he won at least as strongly as Colorado in 2012 and nothing else, he wins just over 270 electoral votes. The Republicans will need about a 4.8% swing of the popular vote nationwide to swing either Iowa or New Hampshire, both now apparently more vulnerable than Colorado.  President Obama would need a miracle if he loses either Iowa or New Hampshire.  Florida, Ohio, or Virginia  would be such miracles. The auto bailout might be enough to win Ohio for Obama (and the Presidential election) without one or both of Iowa and New Hampshire. Virginia has been drifting D for a couple decades. Florida goes D if environmental issues come to the fore.

Do you see how difficult it would be for the Republicans to win the Presidency in 2012? before you say "Pennsylvania" -- Texas is about as close to being a Democratic win. Political cultures do not change overnight.





Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: ?????????? on November 29, 2010, 07:46:13 pm
Is PBrower destined to be a hack?


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: pbrower2a on November 29, 2010, 07:54:08 pm
Continuation:
My old material in green
Your old material in blue

Quote

4. There will likely be no primary fight among Democrats. Among Republicans there will either be a knockdown, drag-out fight or there will be someone nominated (like Mondale in 1984) for "proven service to the Party".  Neither the survivor of a knock-down, drag-out primary struggle nor someone nominated as a reward for "longtime, dedicated service to the Party" ordinarily fares well in the general election.

Clinton...Bush...Obama...are you serious?

The last two incumbent Presidents to have serious primary challenges were Jimmy Carter (Kennedy) in 1980 and Gerald Ford (Reagan) in 1976, and both lost. They were obviously seen as vulnerable by mainstream factions within their parties, indicating that they had big problems in those years.  Sure, that is a weak argument for Obama, but those are two of the last three presidents to lose bids for re-election. But that is a very strong argument on behalf of any challenger to an incumbent President. Sure, one of the Senators defeated in 2010 might in theory challenge President Obama, but I more likely see cabinet positions opening for people like Sestak, Feingold, or even Lincoln.

  

Yes, had George W. Bush faced a serious challenge from within his Party, then he too would have lost in 2004.

Quote
5. President Obama showed himself one of the slickest campaigners in American history with one of the best-run campaign machines ever. The GOP will need someone about as effective a campaigner as Ronald Reagan to beat him. Such a candidate will have to be without any regional weaknesses. President Obama can beat any mediocrity.

But he is seen as a different Obama. In 2008, he was a "rock star". People voted for him just on the basis of his race, his speeches, ect. But then, suddenly....he became a President. Aging and rising unpopularity and suddenly being what needs the "change" will hurt him in 2012.[/quote]

I assure you that he won't be running as a "rock star" in 2012. He's much too old for that now, and such was not the cornerstone of his election campaign in 2008. He is about as mature an adult as there is in American politics these days without having a foot in the grave. That said, economics, foreign policy, and military affairs are deadly serious. President Obama has made plenty of promises and kept most of them. People who didn't like those promises in 2008 are going to do as they did in 2008 -- and vote for the Republican nominee.

Question: will he lose few enough people disappointed with they got or win over enough people who had their misgivings or find the opponent unelectable to win enough states? That is the question; indeed that is practically the defining question of 2012. But that's about like predicting that whatever team scores the most points wins the game.

Quote
6. An incumbent either runs on his record and wins or runs from it and loses. President Obama has much legislative success so far, and if he doesn't have many achievements between 2010 and 2012 he will offer a solution -- rebuild the Democratic majority in the House and hold the Democratic majority in the Senate so that he can do so again.

This may be the President's biggest problem. He's not going to be having to battle for his re-election because he couldn't get things done. He's going to have to battle for his re-election because he did get the things done, and America, thus far, has not responded kindly.  

Quote
Quote
7. The GOP gets to expose itself in the 112th Congress. If the American people like President Obama and the first priority of Republicans is to make sure that President Obama is defeated in 2012, then guess what happens. Darrell Issa and Michelle Bachmann, self-proclaimed Grand Inquisitors, could make lots of Americans regret having voted for Republicans in the House.

Indeed, this is a wait and see. Let's hope our party learned it's lessons from 1995.

Amen. But I would extend the time period from 1995 to 2006 as well.  Sure, I am talking about a Senator, but when shells are flying from North Korea to South Korea, the least of our problems is that the current President be a one-term President. Many of the Republican leaders in the House will be holdovers from the era of Republican dominance, and it would be best that there are no corruption scandals by Republicans holding power or attempts to smear every liberal personality or agenda as "un-American". This country has far bigger problems other than whether disclosing that someone like Michael Moore is 'inadequately patriotic'.  

It will be up to the Republican majority in the House to foster good government; should that fail, Democrats stand to hold the Presidency (which now looks fairly easy) and the Senate (difficult in view of the large Democratic contingent of seats up for grabs) -- and win "back" the House. Just let Darrell Issa and Michelle Bachmann turn the House chambers into a three-ring circus of inquisitions that prove excessively partisan, and Americans will vote out lots of Republicans in Congress.    

Quote
Quote
8. The fastest-growing part of the electorate is the Hispanic vote. Until Republicans can convince Mexican-Americans that the GOP isn't for the debasement of education, trickle-down economics, and the harassment of people who have an icon of the Virgin of Guadalupe in their cars, the GOP is going to have little credibility among non-Cuban Hispanics.


Not true, in fact...I'd guess that support peaked for Democrats in 2006 and 2008. I think in the coming years, with more diverse Republicans in office, and the plausible situation of a Marco Rubio candidacy, I think the GOP will improve in this area.

Political culture usually changes slowly. But the continuing presence of Michael Bennett, Harry Read,  Barbara Boxer, and perhaps Patty Murray in the Senate shows the significance of the Mexican-American part of the electorate. That is a significant change in the demographics. In view of GOP support for politicians hostile to Mexican-Americans (Angle in Nevada, Brewer in Arizona), such is going to take time to undo.

Sure, there is the Plexiglass effect (reversion to the mean) with respect to extreme levels of support for certain types of candidates among certain groups of people. But the GOP  has hurt itself with Mexican-Americans nationwide.

Quote
9. Watch for rifts between the Tea Party and the Corporate Power cliques.    

The only possible national candidate who is doing right in this regard is Marco Rubio. Teapartiers love him, but he's not seen as a Teaparty candidate but rather a traditional, Reagan-mold conservative. Let's hope whoever we nominate in 2012, both sides of conservatives get behind.

Of course such is not my hope.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: pbrower2a on November 29, 2010, 08:06:56 pm
Is PBrower destined to be a hack?

Hacks don't discuss the mechanics of elections and don't try to use history as a guide to the future. hacks speak of "waves of the future" and use bad methods of statistics.

I have a big peeve with statistical extrapolation -- that is, looking at a short-term trend and using it to forecast the distant future. In effect, don't use December forecasts to predict what will happen in June.

Sure, I have my ideological bias. I am a liberal and a humanist. I worked on behalf of a Democratic Congressman who has lost to some Bible-thumping stooge of Big Oil and Wall Street hedge-fund managers who have almost no constituency in his district, and I despised the results. I have much contempt for dictatorship and oligarchy, for dirty tricks (including Orwellian propaganda), and for ideologies that debase people.  But who here doesn't have an ideological bias?

Liberalism and humanism have elevated humanity. Conservatism at its best protects what is good from radical challenges (including Communism, Nazism, and Fascism) that destroy what is good. Unfortunately, what passes for conservatism these days is a ringing endorsement of superstition, bigotry,  irresponsible hierarchy, and pervasive corruption. America will be a better place when conservatism rediscovers the need to foster something worthy of preservation.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: ?????????? on November 29, 2010, 08:22:15 pm
Is PBrower destined to be a hack?

Hacks don't discuss the mechanics of elections and don't try to use history as a guide to the future. hacks speak of "waves of the future" and use bad methods of statistics.

I have a big peeve with statistical extrapolation -- that is, looking at a short-term trend and using it to forecast the distant future. In effect, don't use December forecasts to predict what will happen in June.

Sure, I have my ideological bias. I am a liberal and a humanist. I worked on behalf of a Democratic Congressman who has lost to some Bible-thumping stooge of Big Oil and Wall Street hedge-fund managers who have almost no constituency in his district, and I despised the results. I have much contempt for dictatorship and oligarchy, for dirty tricks (including Orwellian propaganda), and for ideologies that debase people.  But who here doesn't have an ideological bias?

Liberalism and humanism have elevated humanity. Conservatism at its best protects what is good from radical challenges (including Communism, Nazism, and Fascism) that destroy what is good. Unfortunately, what passes for conservatism these days is a ringing endorsement of superstition, bigotry,  irresponsible hierarchy, and pervasive corruption. America will be a better place when conservatism rediscovers the need to foster something worthy of preservation.

Ah, humanism, aka "Godless Statism".


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 29, 2010, 08:29:28 pm
Is PBrower destined to be a hack?

Hacks don't discuss the mechanics of elections and don't try to use history as a guide to the future. hacks speak of "waves of the future" and use bad methods of statistics.

I have a big peeve with statistical extrapolation -- that is, looking at a short-term trend and using it to forecast the distant future. In effect, don't use December forecasts to predict what will happen in June.

Sure, I have my ideological bias. I am a liberal and a humanist. I worked on behalf of a Democratic Congressman who has lost to some Bible-thumping stooge of Big Oil and Wall Street hedge-fund managers who have almost no constituency in his district, and I despised the results. I have much contempt for dictatorship and oligarchy, for dirty tricks (including Orwellian propaganda), and for ideologies that debase people.  But who here doesn't have an ideological bias?

Liberalism and humanism have elevated humanity. Conservatism at its best protects what is good from radical challenges (including Communism, Nazism, and Fascism) that destroy what is good. Unfortunately, what passes for conservatism these days is a ringing endorsement of superstition, bigotry,  irresponsible hierarchy, and pervasive corruption. America will be a better place when conservatism rediscovers the need to foster something worthy of preservation.

Ah, humanism, aka "Godless Statism".

Ah... theocratic fascism


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: J. J. on November 29, 2010, 08:51:14 pm
Is PBrower destined to be a hack?

Yes, and has fulfilled his destiny already.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: ?????????? on November 29, 2010, 10:04:24 pm
Ah... theocratic fascism

Who believes in that?


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: oreomilkshake on November 29, 2010, 10:09:34 pm
Anyone who won in 2008 was destined to lose re-election. Even if Obama was super competent and did all the right things (or at least what he promised, lol) the economy would still be suffering from humpty dumpty syndrome. None of this should surprise anyone.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Cath on November 29, 2010, 10:13:37 pm
Is PBrower destined to be a hack?

Yes, and has fulfilled his destiny already.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Mechaman on November 30, 2010, 08:27:48 am
Facepalm at the idea that Obama had "one of the best run campaigns ever".  One of the worst economic downturns in our history happen right before election and the other party's president had approval ratings in the high 20's, yet Obama won only 52.87% of the vote.
Harry Truman and John Kennedy would make this guy look like an absolute noob.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 30, 2010, 10:33:23 am
Facepalm at the idea that Obama had "one of the best run campaigns ever".  One of the worst economic downturns in our history happen right before election and the other party's president had approval ratings in the high 20's, yet Obama won only 52.87% of the vote.
Harry Truman and John Kennedy would make this guy look like an absolute noob.

If somebody told you after the 2004 election than in four years a first-term liberal black senator with a Muslim name would take 53% of the vote, carrying Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina, would you believe him?


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Mechaman on November 30, 2010, 03:20:12 pm
Facepalm at the idea that Obama had "one of the best run campaigns ever".  One of the worst economic downturns in our history happen right before election and the other party's president had approval ratings in the high 20's, yet Obama won only 52.87% of the vote.
Harry Truman and John Kennedy would make this guy look like an absolute noob.

If somebody told you after the 2004 election than in four years a first-term liberal black senator with a Muslim name would take 53% of the vote, carrying Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina, would you believe him?

After the 2004 election, but after the economic f***fest that took place in October 2008?
If the Democratic candidate was Rainman I wouldn'tve been surprised if he won 55%.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 30, 2010, 05:44:21 pm
Facepalm at the idea that Obama had "one of the best run campaigns ever".  One of the worst economic downturns in our history happen right before election and the other party's president had approval ratings in the high 20's, yet Obama won only 52.87% of the vote.
Harry Truman and John Kennedy would make this guy look like an absolute noob.

If somebody told you after the 2004 election than in four years a first-term liberal black senator with a Muslim name would take 53% of the vote, carrying Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina, would you believe him?

After the 2004 election, but after the economic f***fest that took place in October 2008?
If the Democratic candidate was Rainman I wouldn'tve been surprised if he won 55%.

The country is highly polarized.  The economic crisis was probably the difference between Obama squeaking out a 50%-49% win and his actual 53%-46% win.  There just are not that many persuadable voters anymore. 


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Mechaman on November 30, 2010, 10:38:04 pm
Facepalm at the idea that Obama had "one of the best run campaigns ever".  One of the worst economic downturns in our history happen right before election and the other party's president had approval ratings in the high 20's, yet Obama won only 52.87% of the vote.
Harry Truman and John Kennedy would make this guy look like an absolute noob.

If somebody told you after the 2004 election than in four years a first-term liberal black senator with a Muslim name would take 53% of the vote, carrying Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina, would you believe him?

After the 2004 election, but after the economic f***fest that took place in October 2008?
If the Democratic candidate was Rainman I wouldn'tve been surprised if he won 55%.

The country is highly polarized.  The economic crisis was probably the difference between Obama squeaking out a 50%-49% win and his actual 53%-46% win.  There just are not that many persuadable voters anymore.  

With the other party's president (at the time) having approval ratings in the 20's yeah I think there would be quite a bit more than 50%-49% of the electorate would want another party in there, especially when the candidate of the hated president's party pretty much campaigns on being a carbon copy of said hated president.
Again I see little reason, even in this so-called "polarized climate" why Obama didn't manage a near 400 electoral vote landslide.  If anything it doesn't say that much about how well his campaign was run, but rather how well the McCain campaign did despite having the albatross of George W. Bush over them.
His campaign didn't suck, but I wouldn't call it "one of the greatest run campaigns in history".

If you want to make the argument that his success in the Democratic Primaries over Hillary was predicted to win nomination out of the birth canal Clinton as one of the most successful primary campaigns in history, then yeah I might agree on that one.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: davajuan on December 02, 2010, 03:01:47 pm
YES.

Everyone, on both sides of the aisle, are pretty much stupefied at how the first two years have gone for Obama.

The next two years will see massive stop-loss intellectual transactions as everyone except true believers come to grips with this mistake and turn on him.

He may not even run. His ego will not allow him to lose in a landslide. If the numbers are looking bad, a magical leadership position at the UN may materialize.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: opebo on December 02, 2010, 03:06:51 pm
YES.

Everyone, on both sides of the aisle, are pretty much stupefied at how the first two years have gone for Obama.

The next two years will see massive stop-loss intellectual transactions as everyone except true believers come to grips with this mistake and turn on him.

He may not even run. His ego will not allow him to lose in a landslide. If the numbers are looking bad, a magical leadership position at the UN may materialize.

Its nothing to do with 'true believers', Davenport, its simply a matter of the economy, which is going to go very well for the next two years, beating all expectations, and racism, which is the wind at his face.  I still say he'll lose, but there's no 'mistake', nor will he lose any further support from his current situation.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: pbrower2a on December 02, 2010, 04:34:28 pm
YES.

Everyone, on both sides of the aisle, are pretty much stupefied at how the first two years have gone for Obama.

The next two years will see massive stop-loss intellectual transactions as everyone except true believers come to grips with this mistake and turn on him.

He may not even run. His ego will not allow him to lose in a landslide. If the numbers are looking bad, a magical leadership position at the UN may materialize.

President Obama loses, the Republicans win the Senate, and consolidate their hold on the House if the propaganda machine that the GOP and its front groups can convince the electorate to vote for semi-fascists as they did in 2010.

Of course that depends upon some things yet to be known -- like how the GOP plays its hand in the House of Representatives that it will dominate, how big the voter turnout will be,  and  whether the GOP can perform electoral fraud through elected officials or employer intimidation of workers. The GOP is not a democratic party as it used to be; it is now nearly fascist.

Americans will get a taste of the same ugly rhetoric that they knew from the GOP between 1994 and 2006, only on steroids.  The GOP has not moderated in the least, it seems to offer the same agenda whether in suburban Detroit or the Texas Panhandle, and the only people that it gives a d@mn about are either the super-rich or their stupid hangers-on.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Kalwejt on June 18, 2014, 05:15:38 pm
Nym90 -please sticky this thread so we can all laugh at it two years from now.  

This thread is so ironic, then and now.

(bumping for comical effect)


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: IceSpear on June 19, 2014, 09:31:45 pm
I think Palin can very well beat Obama. If Romney is the nominee Obama will win. If Romney isn't the nominee, it's gonna be another good election for the GOP.

dying


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Kalwejt on June 24, 2014, 03:19:31 pm
I think Palin can very well beat Obama. If Romney is the nominee Obama will win. If Romney isn't the nominee, it's gonna be another good election for the GOP.

dying

See, that is why Republicans had lost, because they nominated Romney. Had they nominated Palin, there would be a landslide.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: ssuperflash on April 26, 2015, 06:38:59 pm
Someone looking at losing 332-206 in electoral votes will take chances that either win the election outright, make things close, or make winning impossible.   
Holy sh**t, he predicted this basically 2 years to the month before the election. Nice job!


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 26, 2015, 06:45:47 pm
Someone looking at losing 332-206 in electoral votes will take chances that either win the election outright, make things close, or make winning impossible.   
Holy sh**t, he predicted this basically 2 years to the month before the election. Nice job!

Congrats, Reaganfan!


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: Ebsy on April 26, 2015, 06:49:26 pm
These threads make me hesitant to make any hasty predictions. However, that does not seem to be the case among a vocal few of our forum members.


Title: Re: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?
Post by: MT Treasurer on July 19, 2015, 05:51:34 am
My intuition tells me Obama will lose re-election.

k