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Election Archive => 2012 Elections => Topic started by: Mr. Morden on December 01, 2010, 05:42:11 am



Title: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 01, 2010, 05:42:11 am
God help me, but I'm going to try to track all of the various state legislative and state party efforts to move primary dates, and the general evolution of the 2012 primary calendar.  I might give this up if it becomes too cumbersome.  There's going to be a lot of activity in state legislatures in the early months of 2011 on this.

Maybe we can keep all discussion of 2012 primary calendar changes in this thread?  There doesn't really need to be separate threads for "California moves its primary", "Georgia moves its primary", etc.  If so, mods, feel free to eventually sticky this thread if you like.  Not sure if it's necessary yet, as there isn't going to be much activity on this front until January.

To start with, I'll try to post what I understand the "current" calendar to be in the near future.  I'll get to that soon, and edit this post appropriately.  In the meantime, here are two versions of it:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2010/06/2012-presidential-primary-calendar.html
(that is a very useful blog on this topic btw)

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c

I'll edit this post later with more detail.

OK, here's where things currently stand as I see it.  blue = primary, red = caucus, green = something that isn't really a primary or a caucus.

2012 GOP Presidential Primary Calendar (tentative)
March 2 UPDATE

Tue, Jan. 3: IA
Tue, Jan. 10: NH
Sat, Jan. 21: SC
Tue, Jan. 31: FL

Sat, Feb. 4: NV
Sat, Feb. 4 - Sat, Feb. 11: ME
Tue, Feb. 7: MO*, CO, MN
Tue, Feb. 28: AZ, MI

Sat, Mar. 3: WA
Tue, Mar. 6: GA, MA, OH, OK, TN, VT, VA, ID, ND, AK district conventions
Tue, Mar. 6 - Sat. Mar. 10: WY county conventions
Sat, Mar. 10: KS, Virgin Islands, Guam convention, Northern Marianas convention
Tue, Mar. 13: AL, MS, HI, American Samoa
Sat, Mar. 17: MO
Sun, Mar. 18: Puerto Rico
Tue, Mar. 20: IL
Sat, Mar. 24: LA

Tue, Apr. 3: DC, MD, WI
Tue, Apr. 24: CT, DE, NY, PA, RI

Tue, May 8: IN, NC, WV
Tue, May 15: NE, OR
Tue, May 22: AR, KY
Tue, May 29: TX

Tue, June 5: CA, MT, NJ, NM, SD
Tue, June 26: UT

* The Feb. 7 primary in Missouri awards no delegates on the Republican side.  The delegate allocation is based on the March 17 caucuses.

NOTES:

- These are only the dates for the GOP.  The Dem. calendar will be slightly different.  But I'm not going to bother tracking that, until such a time as Obama gets a serious primary challenger.

- I haven't bothered to add the dates for US territories yet.  Just the 50 states + DC.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 01, 2010, 05:43:01 am
Here is a thread discussing the new national party rules on primaries:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=116781.0

My summary of the revised RNC rules:

-If Iowa, NH, NV, or SC hold primaries/caucuses before Feb. 1, they lose half their delegates.
-If any other state holds primaries/caucuses before the first Tuesday of March, they lose half their delegates.
-Any state that holds primaries/caucuses before April 1 has to award their delegates on a proportional basis, not WTA statewide or WTA by district.  (Feb. 28 UPDATE: Actually, the proportionality rule allows states to use a hybrid of statewide PR and WTA by CD.  See here: http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/02/update-on-2012-republican-delegate.html  and here: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128721.msg2829427#msg2829427   )
-The RNC chairman will be able to grant waivers to states, to allow them to avoid the 50% delegate penalty if he wishes.  It looks like he'd be free to decide on the basis of any criteria he likes.

My summary of the revised DNC rules:

IA caucuses are to be held no earlier than Feb. 6th
NH primary to be held no earlier than Feb. 14th
NV caucuses to be held no earlier than Feb. 18th
SC primary to be held no earlier than Feb. 28th
Other primaries to be held no earlier than March 6th

States will be given bonus delegates for holding primaries in April or later.  They also get bonus delegates for "regional clustering" (holding primaries on the same dates as nearby states).  Bonuses can mean up to 35% increase in the number of delegates for the state.

If a state votes earlier than it's allowed, then it loses half its delegates, *and* any candidate who campaigns in that state before the primary is ineligible to get any delegates from the state.  However, if Democratic leaders in a state make a good faith effort to change the primary law so that the state is in compliance with the rules, and they fail, they can get the sanctions waived by the DNC.  e.g., if Dems in the Florida state legislature propose a bill that would move the primary back to March, but it's voted down by the GOP controlled legislature, then the DNC will give them a waiver.  Most of the states that currently have February primaries have either a GOP governor or legislature, so a lot of states could get waivers.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 01, 2010, 05:43:36 am
As noted above, states with primaries in February or earlier are going to be hit with new penalties this year.  So presumably, many of those states are going to move their primaries later, in order to comply with the new rules.  States with both a Democratic governor and Democratic legislature are probably the most likely to move their primaries later, as they have little to gain from going early and taking the penalty.  The only reason to go early is to try to have influence before the nomination is clinched.  If there's no contest on the Democratic side, then this is a non-issue.

So in this post, I'm going to list all of the January / February primary states, and list the party control of the governorship and the state legislature, as of 2011.

Dec. 11, 2010 UPDATE: In most of the primary states (NH and SC are two exceptions I know of), the state government sets the date of the primary.  Which means that for all of those February primaries (plus Florida), if you want to change the primary date, you need the state legislature to pass a change, and have the governor sign it.  As of 2011, I think the party control of state government in the Jan/Feb primary states is as follows:

Dem-controlled:
CA, CT, DE, MD, WA

GOP-controlled:
FL, AL, GA, OK, TN, UT, WI, AZ, MI

Divided government:
MO, NJ, NY, LA, VA


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 01, 2010, 05:49:46 am
OK, there are a few stories on this already.  First, a bill's going to be introduced in the Texas legislature to move the primary from the first week of March to the first week of February:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2010/11/bill-introduced-in-texas-house-to-move.html

Don't know that it's necessarily going to go anywhere though, as the same state rep tried the same thing in 2007, and it went nowhere.

Bigger news is that Florida may actually move its early primary later, but also go back to having an even earlier straw poll:

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2010/dec/01/gop-likely-to-abandon-early-primary-may-revive-str/news-breaking/

Quote
Florida Republicans likely will abandon their effort to force the state into the ranks of early presidential primary states in 2012.

Instead, the party may seek to revive a controversial but sometimes momentous Florida political tradition -- a presidential candidates' debate and straw poll held before the primaries.

If the event includes a straw poll, it could be the most important pre-primary test of the 2012 candidates, thrusting Florida into the campaign limelight in late 2011.

If it doesn't include a straw poll, it could signal the end, at least for now, of the state's attempt to have an early influence on presidential politics.

The event next fall would be called "Presidency V," the fifth in a series that dates to the 1980's.

In the past, early straw polls by both parties in Florida have strongly influenced presidential nominations. They were mostly abandoned during the 2000's, however, under pressure from candidates unwilling to commit the resources to compete in a serious, mega-state contest before the outset of the primary season.

State Republican Party Chairman John Thrasher said last week he hopes to hold a Presidency V event, and that the state party is already negotiating with "a major network" – he didn't want to say which one – to broadcast the debate.

Including a straw poll "is something that should be on the table," said Thrasher, who leaves the party chairmanship in January. "It's one of the issues I've put on the list to talk about. We haven't come to any final conclusion. This is real early."

He and other top GOP officials said tighter national party rules against states moving up their primary dates, together with Florida's role as 2012 national convention host, suggest Florida should not try to hold an early primary.

"Since we're the host state for the convention, I think everybody feels we'll be significant enough," said Paul Senft of Haines City, one of Florida's three delegates to the Republican National Committee. "We don't want to be caught up in the public relations nightmare of whether we're rocking the boat."

The article says that the RNC has tighter rules against early primaries than in 2008.  But they're not really *that* much tighter, and I actually think Florida Republicans would be nuts to move their primary later unless all of the February primaries are moving later too, but I guess we'll see....


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on December 01, 2010, 10:09:55 am
Catch this from the Florida article?

Quote
[Thrasher] and other top GOP officials said tighter national party rules against states moving up their primary dates, together with Florida's role as 2012 national convention host, suggest Florida should not try to hold an early primary.

and then at the very end...

Quote
Thrasher was a Romney backer in [2008], along with several other allies of Jeb Bush, and probably will be so again after he leaves the party chairmanship.

I assume Team Romney crapped themselves somewhat when the new calendar rules passed.  The penalties are less problematic for Florida as a state than they are for Romney as a candidate, since they stand to give him much weaker leverage out of his regional strength.  I think a plausible theory is that his allies are trying to kill the cow who starts the stampede, or simply protect Florida as a big, fat jackpot for Romney.  And consider it in context with the general- hey, am I coining this?- Palinophobia from the Bushes.

Found the article's framing interesting:

Quote
Florida Republicans likely will abandon their effort to force the state into the ranks of early presidential primary states in 2012.

but

Quote
Current state law sets Florida's presidential primary in early January of the election year, a date intended to compete with the early primary states, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

...the "effort" doesn't need to be abandoned.  It already succeeded. They changed the law.  Florida goes early as of 2008.  The effort would now actually be to move Florida back, which is a little stickier to sell.  Maybe the reporter was fed and swallowed spin from the Romney allies?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on December 01, 2010, 04:01:37 pm
Great Thread.  Frontloadinghq and the Green Papers contradict themselves on some dates though.  Which one do you prefer?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 01, 2010, 04:20:37 pm
Great Thread.  Frontloadinghq and the Green Papers contradict themselves on some dates though.  Which one do you prefer?

I'll have to take a closer look at it in the near future, to figure out who's "right" on some of these.  FHQ was definitely keeping up better at one point, but the guy who runs that blog has significantly scaled back his posting rate, so he may have fallen behind.

Any dates for IA, NH, NV, and SC are completely speculative at this point, as all four states are likely to wait until the rest of the calendar has settled before making any binding decisions.  All we can say is that IA and NH are determined to go before everyone else, SC is determined to go before any other Southern state, and NV will try to be one of the first states again as well.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 02, 2010, 04:25:31 am
I assume Team Romney crapped themselves somewhat when the new calendar rules passed.  The penalties are less problematic for Florida as a state than they are for Romney as a candidate, since they stand to give him much weaker leverage out of his regional strength.  I think a plausible theory is that his allies are trying to kill the cow who starts the stampede, or simply protect Florida as a big, fat jackpot for Romney.  And consider it in context with the general- hey, am I coining this?- Palinophobia from the Bushes.

I assume that Romney would love to see Florida hold a prominent straw poll shortly before the Iowa caucuses, and steal some of Iowa's "first in the nation" thunder.  He'd have a better chance at winning the FL straw poll than the Iowa caucuses, because the former would rely more on money and organization.  Of course, a straw poll wouldn't actually allocate any delegates, so there's every chance that other candidates skip it, and the media doesn't give it much coverage, which means that it wouldn't matter.  It only works if more than one candidate wants to contest it.

Quote
Found the article's framing interesting:

Quote
Florida Republicans likely will abandon their effort to force the state into the ranks of early presidential primary states in 2012.

but

Quote
Current state law sets Florida's presidential primary in early January of the election year, a date intended to compete with the early primary states, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

...the "effort" doesn't need to be abandoned.  It already succeeded. They changed the law.  Florida goes early as of 2008.  The effort would now actually be to move Florida back, which is a little stickier to sell.  Maybe the reporter was fed and swallowed spin from the Romney allies?

I don't know if it's actually spin, or just ignorance.  You'd be surprised by how many state legislators and state party leaders don't really seem to understand how the primary calendar works, even though they're the ones who are creating it.  It's quite possible that numerous Florida state legislators don't actually realize that they already have an early presidential primary, and all they have to do to keep it is do nothing.  It's just not something that that's necessarily on their issues radar, and most of them probably haven't given it much if any thought.

It's also likely that they haven't actually studied the new RNC rules.  They may simply be buying the media spin (which was generated by the national parties themselves) that the new penalties are tougher than they were in 2008.  Not so much on the GOP side of the aisle.  A January primary would mean that Florida would lose half its delegates.  But that penalty already applied in 2008, so that's no biggie.  The only new penalty is that they have to allocate their delegates proportionally, but there are like 30 other states that are in the same boat, so I don't see that as being a big deal.

At some point before legislation is actually drawn up on moving the primary, FL state legislators may simply realize that the penalties aren't much different from 2008, and they might as well keep the primary where it is.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on December 02, 2010, 01:36:00 pm
I assume Team Romney crapped themselves somewhat when the new calendar rules passed.  The penalties are less problematic for Florida as a state than they are for Romney as a candidate, since they stand to give him much weaker leverage out of his regional strength.  I think a plausible theory is that his allies are trying to kill the cow who starts the stampede, or simply protect Florida as a big, fat jackpot for Romney.  And consider it in context with the general- hey, am I coining this?- Palinophobia from the Bushes.

I assume that Romney would love to see Florida hold a prominent straw poll shortly before the Iowa caucuses, and steal some of Iowa's "first in the nation" thunder.  He'd have a better chance at winning the FL straw poll than the Iowa caucuses, because the former would rely more on money and organization.  Of course, a straw poll wouldn't actually allocate any delegates, so there's every chance that other candidates skip it, and the media doesn't give it much coverage, which means that it wouldn't matter.  It only works if more than one candidate wants to contest it.

I agree Romney would love a Florida straw poll but that's not mutually exclusive with a January primary though this Thrasher fellow is linking them.  This is about Romney wanting to move Florida later.  The momentum he would generate by winning Florida in late January would be easily offset by the damage the penalties his good states will pay if nothing changes, hence my verb-object choice "crapped themselves".  I think he is furiously lobbying to move states later.



Quote
Found the article's framing interesting:

Quote
Florida Republicans likely will abandon their effort to force the state into the ranks of early presidential primary states in 2012.

but

Quote
Current state law sets Florida's presidential primary in early January of the election year, a date intended to compete with the early primary states, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

...the "effort" doesn't need to be abandoned.  It already succeeded. They changed the law.  Florida goes early as of 2008.  The effort would now actually be to move Florida back, which is a little stickier to sell.  Maybe the reporter was fed and swallowed spin from the Romney allies?

I don't know if it's actually spin, or just ignorance.  You'd be surprised by how many state legislators and state party leaders don't really seem to understand how the primary calendar works, even though they're the ones who are creating it.  It's quite possible that numerous Florida state legislators don't actually realize that they already have an early presidential primary, and all they have to do to keep it is do nothing.  It's just not something that that's necessarily on their issues radar, and most of them probably haven't given it much if any thought.

It's also likely that they haven't actually studied the new RNC rules.  They may simply be buying the media spin (which was generated by the national parties themselves) that the new penalties are tougher than they were in 2008.  Not so much on the GOP side of the aisle.  A January primary would mean that Florida would lose half its delegates.  But that penalty already applied in 2008, so that's no biggie.  The only new penalty is that they have to allocate their delegates proportionally, but there are like 30 other states that are in the same boat, so I don't see that as being a big deal.

At some point before legislation is actually drawn up on moving the primary, FL state legislators may simply realize that the penalties aren't much different from 2008, and they might as well keep the primary where it is.

But the effort to abandon the effort to do nothing is being led by Thrasher, the GOP FL chairman, who is definitely aware of the specific penalties and their role in the big picture or is taking orders from someone who is.  Romney and his inner circle are definitely aware of it and have definitely been gaming out the race.  They're probably even checking in with blogs like frontloading to keep tabs on developments.  Who knows?  Maybe someone even stumbled on and keep up with this board and absorbed our previous analysis of how bad the new rules would be for Romney if they didn't jump on it.  If you're reading this Mr. Romney, I'm speculating you or an anonymous numbskull with your blessing called in a favor from Thrasher.  (I don't really think he reads this though.)  (PS Dog goes on the inside of the car.)

Romney's been palling around with Thrashers.

http://jacksonville.com/opinion/blog/403455/david-hunt/2010-06-15/romney-thrasher-wearing-bullseye
 (http://jacksonville.com/opinion/blog/403455/david-hunt/2010-06-15/romney-thrasher-wearing-bullseye)

Quote
Thrasher brought Romney in as the guest of honor to help raise campaign funds Tuesday at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium. When Romney asked the 250 attendees to open up their checkbooks, he laid out how serious their donations would be.

You guys are in a bit of a crucible right now. The Democratic Party would love to knock off the chair of the Republican Party. They’d like to go after his seat and knock him out. This is going to be a targeted race. He doesn’t deserve to be targeted.


Romney told the crowd that he thinks it's going to take leaders like Thrasher to fix Florida's problems.

Italics are Romney's quote.  It's pretty safe to say Thrasher (how can he not be a bit of an a**hole with that name btw?) would never be advocate this move-disguised-as-not-a-move if Romney was against it.

As for Florida being just one of 50 states, it's one of the biggest and the most Romney-friendly.  And beyond that, its behavior has in recent history affected other states.  In 2008, Florida and Michigan forced Iowa and friends into January creating the vacuum that sucked every other state up.  They were the first two to jump offsides I believe.  Here's my awesome theory: Romney wants Florida, the leader of the bloody insurrection against the party's oppressive calendar of 2008 (if you consider only getting half a delegate slate bloodshed) to turn peacemaker/pacemaker/Thrasher, and feign ignorance while leading the states back to the better-for-Mitt-Romney-2012 way it was before.  He wants Florida to remain a big, juicy, uncut delegate prize, and also help reverse the tide so California and New York do too.  Anyway, I assume he has chits to cash in with Thrashers in those state legislatures too.  Romney's is a campaign that has already telegraphed his intention to ignore evangelicals, i.e. yield a lot of states he has no shot in.  He has surely noticed the recent ppp polls showing how relatively weak he is in many regions. 

This little Florida story is imo way bigger than it looks.  The headline should be "Romney Proposes Bill in Florida Legislature that He Be the 2012 Nominee"  If the Florida legislature succeeds its in effort to abandon the effort to not do anything, and that calms the herd and the calendar slides later, Romney becomes way tougher to beat and the risk of a boring primary goes, unfortunately for us, way up.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 04, 2010, 06:15:08 am
Speaking of straw polls, Terry Branstad wants all the 2012ers to know that they had better participate in the August straw poll:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1210/45805.html

Also, I've added a bunch of new info to the early posts of this thread.  If you see any mistakes, let me know.  Also, I could really use some help in getting a list of which parties will control which state legislatures in 2011.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Poundingtherock on December 04, 2010, 02:07:30 pm
Joe,

What you wrote makes no sense.  So Romney wants a state that you believe is strong for him (that may not in fact be true anymore given what the evidence that he is collapsing) to come later in the process by a couple of months.

The problem with this argument is that he won't be able to sustain loss after loss and stay in.  he'll be forced  out of the race if he's not winning primaries.  If Florida is going to get pushed back to April, there's no way he'll be able to hang around until his "favorable" states if he's putting up terrible numbers February-March.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Progressive on December 04, 2010, 02:18:06 pm
Why so late?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: © tweed on December 04, 2010, 03:36:27 pm
may God help and bless you


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: TCash101 on December 04, 2010, 05:01:21 pm
I see what Joe means and in many races, I'd disagree. You want a lot of wins early on and knock your opponent out. Most years that's what happens. But remember how Clinton ws going to have the whole thing wrapped up after California and ST? The only thing that kept her in for so long is that she had Penn and Ohio and a few other states that were pretty strong for her. Now, she lost, but she certainly did better in her primary than Romney did in his. And I seriously don't see Romney walking away with this, especially if he alienates evangelicals. Tea Partiers and Palinites are NOT going to quietly endorse him if he wins a lot of states early on. If he does, someone will keep challenging him until the end. If Clinton didn't have Penn, Ky, and Indiana in those later primaries, she would have had to drop out well before she did.

Unless he crashes and burns before the primaries start, Romney is likely to lose Ia and SC and win Nev and NH. Given that, with NY, Ca, and NJ pretty early on, Romney has some big states he's likely to win- if polling stays somewhat in the vicinity it is now and no moderate suddenly starts doing well.

Plus, if the calendar is pretty similar to 2008, Romney didn't compete in the later states thus has a lot fewer folks who voted for him last time around. He took second in Florida and a pretty close second at that, so he has something to work with.



Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: © tweed on December 04, 2010, 06:19:17 pm
I see what Joe means and in many races, I'd disagree. You want a lot of wins early on and knock your opponent out. Most years that's what happens. But remember how Clinton ws going to have the whole thing wrapped up after California and ST? The only thing that kept her in for so long is that she had Penn and Ohio and a few other states that were pretty strong for her. Now, she lost, but she certainly did better in her primary than Romney did in his. And I seriously don't see Romney walking away with this, especially if he alienates evangelicals. Tea Partiers and Palinites are NOT going to quietly endorse him if he wins a lot of states early on. If he does, someone will keep challenging him until the end. If Clinton didn't have Penn, Ky, and Indiana in those later primaries, she would have had to drop out well before she did.

Unless he crashes and burns before the primaries start, Romney is likely to lose Ia and SC and win Nev and NH. Given that, with NY, Ca, and NJ pretty early on, Romney has some big states he's likely to win- if polling stays somewhat in the vicinity it is now and no moderate suddenly starts doing well.

Plus, if the calendar is pretty similar to 2008, Romney didn't compete in the later states thus has a lot fewer folks who voted for him last time around. He took second in Florida and a pretty close second at that, so he has something to work with.

ah, you're back? bringing the total of active or semi-active old forum veterans to at least five. still smoking a pack of Reds a day? personally I've almost quit: 48 hours since last cigarette, a total of about 7 since November 22nd.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on December 04, 2010, 11:01:03 pm

Unless he crashes and burns before the primaries start, Romney is likely to lose Ia and SC and win Nev and NH. Given that, with NY, Ca, and NJ pretty early on, Romney has some big states he's likely to win- if polling stays somewhat in the vicinity it is now and no moderate suddenly starts doing well.

Plus, if the calendar is pretty similar to 2008, Romney didn't compete in the later states thus has a lot fewer folks who voted for him last time around. He took second in Florida and a pretty close second at that, so he has something to work with.


My own take is that early mo is less important for Romney than for everyone else.  Or at least that he's confident of enough momentum from winning NH and NV to prefer Florida avoid the penalty.  The attempt to move in Florida, being orchestrated by a steering committee chair from Romney's 2008 campaign and a guy he raised serious money for in a close race, is, I'd say, fairly strong evidence of Romney's strategy.  The guy even cites the party penalties in his explanation.

I agree with Morden's assessment that, from the point of view of the state's self-interest, why should Florida care about the penalties?  It played a much more pivotal role in the GOP 2008 contest penalties notwithstanding.  It was where McCain forced Giuliani out and headed off Romney from turning the race on its head.  In fact, because, from the state's point of view, the penalties would so plainly be outweighed by the status of being in the club with Iowa, New Hampshire etc, it seems even more transparent to me that the Florida bill is meant as a favor to Romney.  Actually, imo, the conflict between what is good for Florida and what is good for Romney explains why the state senator and likely player on Romney's 2012 campaign who is leading the effort to move Florida back would want to spin it as just leaving it the way it is.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: TCash101 on December 05, 2010, 04:46:12 pm
I see what Joe means and in many races, I'd disagree. You want a lot of wins early on and knock your opponent out. Most years that's what happens. But remember how Clinton ws going to have the whole thing wrapped up after California and ST? The only thing that kept her in for so long is that she had Penn and Ohio and a few other states that were pretty strong for her. Now, she lost, but she certainly did better in her primary than Romney did in his. And I seriously don't see Romney walking away with this, especially if he alienates evangelicals. Tea Partiers and Palinites are NOT going to quietly endorse him if he wins a lot of states early on. If he does, someone will keep challenging him until the end. If Clinton didn't have Penn, Ky, and Indiana in those later primaries, she would have had to drop out well before she did.

Unless he crashes and burns before the primaries start, Romney is likely to lose Ia and SC and win Nev and NH. Given that, with NY, Ca, and NJ pretty early on, Romney has some big states he's likely to win- if polling stays somewhat in the vicinity it is now and no moderate suddenly starts doing well.

Plus, if the calendar is pretty similar to 2008, Romney didn't compete in the later states thus has a lot fewer folks who voted for him last time around. He took second in Florida and a pretty close second at that, so he has something to work with.

ah, you're back? bringing the total of active or semi-active old forum veterans to at least five. still smoking a pack of Reds a day? personally I've almost quit: 48 hours since last cigarette, a total of about 7 since November 22nd.

Good for you.! I'm still at a pack of camels and a gallon of coffee a day and check in here every now and again.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 11, 2010, 02:29:30 am
I've updated the third post of the thread with a list of party control of the state legislatures for the Jan/Feb. primary states.  Please let me know if you find any mistakes.

Like I said, I expect that Dem-controlled state governments are the most likely to move their primaries later (so yeah, my guess is that California will move back to a later primary).  But party control isn't necessarily determinative.  You could have some Dem-controlled states staying put and GOP-controlled or divided government states moving.  Too early to tell which states will move.

Another scheduling note that I'll mention is that the Iowa caucus has traditionally been held on a Monday (a tradition which was broken in 2008, when they went to a Thursday).

If Iowa is forced to go in one of the first two weeks of January this time around, they will probably *not* vote on a Monday, and instead go on a different day of the week, like in 2008.  That's because there will be major college football bowl games on both Mon, Jan. 2 and Mon, Jan. 9:

http://www.benchwarmersports.com/football-packages


Title: WA likely to suspend 2012 primary
Post by: bgwah on December 16, 2010, 02:39:12 pm
http://blogs.sos.wa.gov/FromOurCorner/index.php/2010/12/reed-proposes-suspending-2012-presidential-primary/

The Democrats already base all of their delegates off the caucus (not that it would probably matter in 2012 anyway), but the Republicans usually base 1/2 off the caucus and 1/2 of the primary.

Right-wingers do fantastically in our caucuses, so I think this is worth nothing. This greatly increases the likelihood that someone like Palin or Huckabee will win Washington in the 2012 Republican primary. Robertson won the 1988 caucus, after all.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 16, 2010, 02:54:11 pm
Courtesy of bgwah's thread, I see that Washington may end up scrapping its primary, and going 100% caucus:

http://blogs.sos.wa.gov/FromOurCorner/index.php/2010/12/reed-proposes-suspending-2012-presidential-primary/

The GOP (and Dem.) caucus last time was on the second Saturday of February.  If the primary is scuttled, and the GOP is left with just the caucus, then the Washington State GOP can avoid all delegate penalties if they wish by moving the caucus to March or later.  Or they can stick with an early caucus and take the penalties.


Title: Re: WA likely to suspend 2012 primary
Post by: Poundingtherock on December 16, 2010, 03:36:32 pm
Palin was already going to win Washington state whether it was a primary or caucus.  The Northwest Republican electorate is a good fit for her.


Title: Re: WA likely to suspend 2012 primary
Post by: feeblepizza on December 16, 2010, 06:12:41 pm
Huckabee and Palin aren't fanatical weirdos like Pat Robertson. And neither of them are going to run, anyway, so it's a moot point. I would expect Gingrich (another normal, presentable person) to win in Washington State.


Title: Re: WA likely to suspend 2012 primary
Post by: CultureKing on December 16, 2010, 07:33:32 pm
I wouldn't be surprised if someone like Paul won in the 2012 GOP caucus, he nearly won in 2008 (or did he actually win? I still am not clear about what happened with the bizarre GOP counting in 2008).


Title: Re: WA likely to suspend 2012 primary
Post by: Apocrypha on December 16, 2010, 07:35:33 pm
I wouldn't be surprised if someone like Paul won in the 2012 GOP caucus, he nearly won in 2008 (or did he actually win? I still am not clear about what happened with the bizarre GOP counting in 2008).
I think he came in third.


Title: Re: WA likely to suspend 2012 primary
Post by: bgwah on December 16, 2010, 08:00:15 pm
I wouldn't be surprised if someone like Paul won in the 2012 GOP caucus, he nearly won in 2008 (or did he actually win? I still am not clear about what happened with the bizarre GOP counting in 2008).

McCain won with something like 25% of the vote... But the Republican Party acted very suspiciously during the whole ordeal. Some people were speculating it was rigged to stop Paul.

It certainly at least makes someone like Romney winning less likely, IMO.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 19, 2010, 07:31:11 pm
The Ames, Iowa straw poll has been announced for Aug. 13th, 2011:

http://iowaindependent.com/49271/iowa-gop-strong-arms-presidential-candidates-into-ames-staw-poll

Meanwhile, the Nevada GOP has set their caucuses for Feb. 18, 2012:

http://www.lvrj.com/news/date-set-for-nevada-gop-caucus-112037424.html

As Josh Putnam notes:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2010/12/nevada-gop-sets-2012-presidential.html

the Nevada GOP is taking a different track from Iowa, NH, and SC.  Those three states protect their early status by waiting until everyone else has already set their dates.  NV isn't operating that way.  Though they may move back up to January depending on what other states do, for now, they're at Feb. 18.  In March 2007, they initially set their caucus for February 2008, but then later moved up to January, after there was a rush of other state primaries in February.  Same thing may happen this time.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 20, 2010, 12:28:29 am
The subject of the 2012 primary calendar has made it to Politico:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1210/46567.html

The article gets a few facts wrong, but is generally a good read.  Bottom line, as we already know, both the DNC and RNC would like 46 states to vote in March or later, and only IA, NH, NV, and SC to vote in February, with no primaries in January.  But it all depends on all those early primary states agreeing to move later.  It only takes one of them to mess things up.  It does sound like many in the Florida GOP appear willing to move later, even as just a sort of "thank you" to the RNC for picking Tampa for the convention:

Quote
Paul Senft, Florida's Republican National Committeeman, said he's received assurances from state legislators that the primary will be moved back to a date approved by the RNC. The proportional delegate distribution in the early contests will ensure that later states still have an influence, he said.

"It came down to a very simple analysis: Why do people want to move up?" he said. "They want to have an impact on the campaign. If they cannot do that because they're required to be proportional, it takes most of the incentive away."

(Personally, I don't buy that.  The Dems have used PR for like 25 years, and momentum was still plenty important in a lot of those contests.  Heck, look at the 2004 race for an extreme example.)

Quote
For the state GOP, there's an additional motivation: The party's national convention is scheduled to be held in Tampa. Florida Republicans don't want their hometown convention marred by a battle over party rules, Senft said.

Nonetheless, some lawmakers are making noises about sticking with the early primary, the Miami Herald reported last week.

Michigan is identified as a state likely to keep their now late February primary:

Quote
Michigan may present more of an obstacle. It won't likely try for January again, but its difficulty adjusting to the parties' new rules may typify the sorts of dilemmas other states will face.

The legislation that moved Michigan's 2008 primary to January was a one-shot deal. But under current law, its 2012 contest would still violate party rules by being held on Feb. 28.

That date coincides with municipal elections, meaning it would cost the cash-strapped state more if it sought to conduct a separate, later presidential primary. The state's RNC delegation opposed the new RNC scheduling rules.

"To be honest, I think we're going to be in a very difficult position with regard to moving the date," the state's national committeeman, Saul Anuzis, said. "At this point, I think there's a better-than-even shot that Michigan stays in February, as well as many other states."


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on December 24, 2010, 01:31:16 pm
Slipping a mention of proportional representation into an argument that moving to April is good for Florida is the equivalent of Romney mentioning Obama getting economic stimulus ahead of 2012 in his column arguing the tax deal was bad for America.  It betrays his real motives.

If only WTA makes a state important, explain the push to do a 2011 straw poll that awards no delegates at all?  Is it a serious claim that candidates would blow off a January Florida primary because of PR?  Also, on the GOP side in 2008, there was no real "battle": January primary, penalties, the end.  Florida could go in March and still be in compliance with GOP rules so why the push for April?  Seems transparent enough to me.  Romney, gauging Florida to be one of his most winnable states, wants momentum from the 2011 straw poll (as the Ames poll which is riskier for him, this could offset it) but he wants his Florida delegate pot uncut- which could yield him 6X the delegate tally from the state- his allies in the legislature, led by his 2008 FL co-campaign chair, are trying to orchestrate that for him.  While other reps are questioning if such a move gambles with FL's relevance.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 04, 2011, 05:38:35 am
Now that the census numbers are out, we know how many convention delegates each state will get for each party.  Here's the allocation on the Republican side:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-Del.phtml

This does not include any penalties that states will incur for holding early primaries, as we don't know what the calendar is yet!

FrontloadingHQ has a calendar of when state legislatures will be meeting in 2011:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/01/frontloading-starts-with-state.html

Some states with February primaries, like Georgia, wrap up their legislative session as early as April of this year.  If they're going to move their 2012 primary, they're going to have to do it before then, unless there's a special legislative session.  Florida doesn't even start its legislative session until March, so we may not know for a while whether IA will once again be backed up to the first week of January in order to keep its first in the nation status.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 05, 2011, 05:25:16 pm
A bill has been introduced in the California Assembly that would move the primary from February to June:

http://www.ballot-access.org/2011/01/05/california-bill-to-move-presidential-primary-from-february-to-june/

Ohio may end up moving its March primary to a later date if redistricting takes a long time:

http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2011/01/04/copy/slow-redistricting-could-delay-ohios-presidential-primary.html?adsec=politics&sid=101

I've also heard that VA, MD, and DC are looking to again do a "Potomac Primary", with all three voting on the same day, though that date would probably be later than last time, maybe April.  No link on that, sorry.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Beet on January 08, 2011, 11:29:52 am
Wait, there's a county convention in WY on Jan. 7th??? There wasn't anything like this in 2008.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 08, 2011, 02:01:24 pm
Yes there was.  They were often called caucuses by the media, but they weren't really caucuses in the same sense as Iowa or other states.  They were just a series of county conventions:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wyoming_Republican_caucuses,_2008


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 09, 2011, 03:16:05 am
Rubio supports Florida keeping its early primary:

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/2012-campaigns-take-their-first-baby-steps/1144437

And he's not alone:

Quote
"We hear more and more talk from Florida Republicans that despite potential penalties from the Republican National Committee, they are intent on once again having an early presidential primary in 2012."


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Poundingtherock on January 10, 2011, 01:49:29 am
It seems like Romney's team is completely self-destructive and indecisive about everything.

Because Romney knows his support is paper thin everywhere outside of some parts of the Northeast and some Mormon states, he has to equivocate as to whether he wants Florida ahead or towards the back of the process.

Romney ran one of the worst campaigns in 2008 if you look at the return on his investment ratio ($44 million in debt).  His PAC is well behind Palin's PAC in terms of return on investment ratio as well (though he avoided spending himself into debt this time).  It appears that Romney is set to run another terrible campaign in 2012 and his indecision on Florida is strong evidence that he will implode just like he did running his own campaign in 2008.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: A-Bob on January 11, 2011, 08:22:30 pm
Indecision is better. That way he can't be blamed for trying to push things around for the sake of his candidacy. I'm sure they have plans if it's later or real early. But all this would do would be a negative for him, the media blames him for sticking his nose in Florida just to snatch the nomination instead of staying out of it, nobody caring, adapting to the situation, and still have the ability to win Florida.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 12, 2011, 05:09:57 pm
Two bills have been filed in the Virginia House that would move the primary to the first Tuesday in March:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/01/two-bills-introduced-to-move-virginia.html


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 14, 2011, 06:55:43 pm
In Virginia, we now have a companion bill in the state senate to move the primary to March:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/01/accompanying-senate-bill-to-move.html

The effort to move the primary later in Virginia appears to be bipartisan.

In Washington, a bill has been introduced by a Democratic state senator to abolish the state's presidential primary, and go 100% caucuses:

http://www.ballot-access.org/2011/01/14/washington-state-bill-to-abolish-presidential-primary/

So we now have bills pending in both CA and VA to move to a later primary, and a bill in WA to get rid of the primary altogether.  None of the other February primary states have made a move yet.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: muon2 on January 15, 2011, 08:13:29 pm
It was interesting that IL moved to a later date last year. Of course, it had only been moved up to help Obama. However, IL uses the same date for off year primaries as well, and given the disaster in the Dem Lt Gov race, the push to move it back to mid March was swift.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 19, 2011, 05:42:57 am
There are a couple of bills in the New Jersey legislature that were introduced last year, but still alive, though nothing's happened with them for ages.  They would both move the NJ primary back to June:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/01/two-oldies-but-goodies.html

And here's a textbook case of a reporter writing a story on a subject on which he is utterly clueless:

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_118_1780.aspx

But bottom line, several different options are being floated in Georgia.  They may stick with Feb. 7th and take the penalties.  They may move to what could be the new Super Tuesday of March 6th.  Or they may move to shortly before March 6th, and still take the penalties.  The odd thing is that Thursday, March 1st seems to be an option.  Thursday isn't a typical day for elections, but so be it.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on January 19, 2011, 06:45:07 pm
Hopefully they move back to March 6th.  I like seeing my state a major player in Super Tuesday.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 21, 2011, 09:14:47 pm
I feel dirty linking to all these news stories that get so many factual details wrong, but here's another one:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/21/arizona-begins-primary-calendar-jockeying/

Cutting through the factual inaccuracies, the bottom line is this.  Like it says on the calendar at the beginning of this thread, Arizona law sets its primary for Feb. 28, but the governor has the option of moving that up to Feb. 7th if she wishes.  While other February primary states are moving their primaries later, to comply with the DNC and RNC rules and avoid sanctions, the Arizona GOP looks set to pass a resolution this weekend that will urge Brewer to move the primary up to Feb. 7th.

Again (setting aside caucuses for a moment), we currently have 12 states with primaries on either Jan. 31 or Feb. 7.  And then there are states like Arizona that are later than Feb. 7, but might move up to that date.  All it takes is one of those states to hold firm with a late Jan. / early Feb. primary, and we'll get IA and NH scheduling their contests for January again.  This is what will most likely happen.  The primaries will most likely start in January again next year.  A year from today, the Iowa caucuses will likely have already taken place, and my guess is that the NH primary will have already happened too.  The media is constantly misrepresenting this point.  They seem to think that the DNC and RNC have somehow automatically moved all those primaries later or something.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Thomas D on January 22, 2011, 11:41:43 am
Hopefully they move back to March 6th.  I like seeing my state a major player in Super Tuesday.

If Newt is running won't everyone else just concede the state to him?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on January 22, 2011, 01:31:33 pm
Hopefully they move back to March 6th.  I like seeing my state a major player in Super Tuesday.

If Newt is running won't everyone else just concede the state to him?
Not necessarily.  I don't know many newt-fans here; I think most people don't really care where he's from.  The man has been irrelevant for a decade.  Though, if his campaign base is here and Huckabee runs, the two will probably split the socon vote and whoever the non-socon standard bearer is (Romney? Daniels?) could pick the state up with a plurality.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 29, 2011, 03:46:52 am
Lots of new (minor) updates:

The Arizona GOP ended up not passing that resolution that would urge Brewer to move the primary up to Feb. 7th.

The Florida Democratic Party chair wants the state's primary moved to March, but it's still less than clear that the GOP controlled legislature is going to give him his wish:

link (http://www.wctv.tv/news/headlines/Florida_Primary_Date_Concerns_114731824.html)

Oklahoma bill would move primary to first Tuesday of March:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/01/pair-of-pre-filed-bills-propose-moving.html

Idaho bill would move primary up by just one week:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/01/frontloading-in-idaho-sort-of.html


Really, Frontloading HQ is now doing such a good job of tracking all of this that maybe you should just read that instead of reading my posts:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/

I'll just post here when one of these bills actually passes and there's actual movement on the calendar.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: A-Bob on February 08, 2011, 11:13:03 pm
Hopefully they move back to March 6th.  I like seeing my state a major player in Super Tuesday.

If Newt is running won't everyone else just concede the state to him?

If Huck runs (I see it as unlikely) then no. I mean he was in Congress, it's not the same favorite son type deal as the senator or governor, but if Huck is out, then I don't see anyone else really have a chance for first down there until there's some major game changers (like the rise of Huckabee in 08 and fall of Thompson)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 09, 2011, 05:36:04 am
Here's a list of when some of the early February states are likely to move their primaries to.....in some cases based on bills that are in the pipeline in the respective state legislatures, and in some cases just based on public comments by legislative leaders:

Mar. 6: OK, VA
Apr. 3: MD
Jun. 5: CA, NJ
Jun. 12: DC

WA is likely to cancel their primary, though the caucus may still be in February.  In GA, there has been talk of moving to early March, though that's very uncertain, and they may yet just stick with early Feb.  And of course, in FL, it's unclear what's going to happen.  They might stick with Jan. 31, or else move to either March or April.

Haven't heard anything from other early Feb. states, like NY, MO, or TN.  Utah's legislative session apparently only lasts until March, so we should know fairly soon if they're going to move their primary or stick with Feb. 7th.

Bottom line, I'm guessing that enough states will vacate Feb. 7th that it will no longer be Super Tuesday.  March 6th will probably become Super Tuesday.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 12, 2011, 05:30:57 am
To the list above, add

Mar. 6: TN

as per this story: http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/02/bills-introduced-in-both-chambers-to.html

Again, it looks increasingly like March 6th is going to become Super Tuesday.

The effort to move the primary in TN (as in OK, VA, NJ, etc.) appears to be bipartisan.  There's no serious opposition in those states to moving the primary later.  Florida is a different matter.  The Dems have put forth bills that would move the primary to March 6th, and most of the GOP appears skeptical.  FHQ has a good rundown of the controversy:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/02/florida-primary-are-governor-scott-and.html

Basically, it looks like most of the Florida GOP is happy to leave the primary on Jan. 31.  And since the GOP controls the state government, that's probably what will happen.  (Which means, yes, IA, NH, and SC will all stay in January to stay ahead of FL, and the primaries will start (almost) as early in the year as they did in 2008.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: RIsaff on February 19, 2011, 07:08:43 pm
Hey look, it's 2008 all over again...except different party:

Quote
A deepening standoff between national Republicans and top party leaders in Florida has the potential to blow up the 2012 presidential primary calendar — and do lasting damage to the GOP in the nation’s largest swing state.

At issue is the early date of Florida’s presidential primary election, currently set for Jan. 31, 2012. As of right now, it’s the first primary scheduled.

That’s in blatant violation of Republican and Democratic National Committee rules, which say only four states — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada – can hold primary elections before the beginning of March.

But despite the pleas of GOP officials in Washington, the Republican leaders of Florida’s legislature say they have no intention of shifting the date in a way that could diminish the Sunshine State’s influence in 2012. Key officials signaled they would accept nothing less than going fifth on the primary calendar — not leapfrogging the four early states, but clearly marked off from the other 45.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0211/49832.html


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 20, 2011, 09:02:49 am
Hey look, it's 2008 all over again...except different party:

Yes, well, there's no reason for it to get as heated as the 2008 DNC situation, because (in this case) Florida doesn't really care that much about the delegate penalty.  They'll take the 50% delegate cut, if it means they can go early and have influence on the nomination.  In 2008, FL and MI lost 100% of their delegates on the Democratic side and most of the Democratic candidates boycotted both states, so it was a lot more messy.

And I doubt Florida will be the only state to go earlier than the RNC's window is supposed to allow.  Perhaps a half dozen or so other states will probably end up going early too.  If the RNC (or DNC) thought that their 2012 primary calendar plan was actually going to succeed in moving the start of the process into February, then they're fools.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on February 20, 2011, 06:53:38 pm
The real way to delay the start would be for opinion and party leaders in later states to shun the winners of early states, that is, to offset the momentum with stigma.  And the best way would be for later states to unite in their resentment at Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and uniformly call on candidates to not campaign in those states.  Candidates being asked about the arbitrary privilege of early states would be a little bit like Obama watching the protests in Egypt- you have to be careful not to alienate the dictator(s) if they stay in power or the uprising if they don't.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Likely Voter on February 21, 2011, 02:27:11 am
If RNC is serious about starting in February, they would have to threaten to remove all of Florida's delegates and to take the 2012 convention away.

I find it amazing that Florida GOP has been awarded the convention and is yet thumbing their nose at their own party.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 21, 2011, 04:35:37 am
If RNC is serious about starting in February, they would have to threaten to remove all of Florida's delegates and to take the 2012 convention away.

They're not serious though.  They would *like* to move the primaries later, but they have no desire to repeat the 2008 DNC vs. FL/MI fiasco.  They'll make a lot of noise, but won't really do anything about it.

And again, it's not just Florida.  Florida's just the most open about it.  Other states are likely to follow suit, and stick to late Jan. / early Feb. primaries.  Utah's 2012 primary is still scheduled for Feb. 7th, and the legislature adjourns in a couple of weeks and no one's put forth any legislation to move the primary later.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: The Mikado on February 25, 2011, 05:05:41 pm
So what penalties would there be?  Half-delegates?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 26, 2011, 09:14:16 am
So what penalties would there be?  Half-delegates?


States that vote earlier than April 1 have to allocate delegates by PR rather than WTA, and states that vote earlier than the first Tuesday of March will lose half their delegates (at least for all states besides IA, NH, NV, and SC, which can vote as early as Feb. 1 without losing any delegates).  Those are the rules the RNC adopted.  Unlikely they're going to be changed to anything harsher than that.

Also, Idaho has officially moved their primary May 15th:

http://www.ballot-access.org/2011/02/25/idaho-bill-signed-moves-primary-one-week-earlier/

and I've updated the calendar in the OP.  In Virginia, McDonnell will likely soon be signing the bill that moves that state's primary to March, as it's passed both houses of the legislature.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Thomas D on February 26, 2011, 09:48:34 am
I know this is a larger issue But why does everyone feel like they have to vote on a Tuesday. Couldn't Florida, or any state, hold their vote on Thursday March 1 and avoid any penalty?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 26, 2011, 10:10:09 am
Nope.  Because:

-If any other state holds primaries/caucuses before the first Tuesday of March, they lose half their delegates.

The penalty is for going before the first Tuesday of March, not March 1st.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Thomas D on February 26, 2011, 10:20:20 am
Nope.  Because:

-If any other state holds primaries/caucuses before the first Tuesday of March, they lose half their delegates.

The penalty is for going before the first Tuesday of March, not March 1st.


Okay. Thanks for explaining that.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on February 26, 2011, 11:05:30 am
Super Tuesday seems a bit small.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 26, 2011, 01:53:10 pm
Super Tuesday seems a bit small.

At least five of the states on the current "Super Tuesday" of Feb. 7th (including CA) are likely to move later, and the new Super Tuesday will probably be March 6th.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on February 27, 2011, 10:54:49 am
So the Republicans want to create a longer primary, allowing Obama to create an unstoppable campaign machine?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 28, 2011, 05:06:26 am
FHQ gets a copy of the actual text of the new RNC rules:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/02/update-on-2012-republican-delegate.html

and notes that we've all been misled on the proportionality requirement.  The rule is written extremely broadly, and allows states to fulfill the requirement by using a statewide PR / WTA by CD hybrid system.  Let me explain:

States with primaries after April 1 can allocate their delegates however they like.  States that vote before April "have to allocate their delegates by PR", but it's really faux-PR, at least for those states with primaries in March.

Let me use MN as an example.  MN held their caucus on the first Tuesday of February in 2008.  For 2012, they've moved to March 6th.  That means that they can't allocate their delegates via WTA.  They have to use a system that incorporates PR.  If they want to allocate all 37 of their delegates by PR, they may do so.  But if they want to, they can actually allocate up to 24 of those delegates by CD, with the winner of each of the 8 CDs in the state getting 3 delegates, and the remaining 13 delegates being allocated proportionally based on the statewide total.  (The fraction of delegates that can be used for WTA by CD varies by state, but is typically over 50% of the state's delegates.)  And even with those 13 delegates allocated by statewide PR, the state can set a minimum threshold as high as 20% if they like.

In 2008, the MN GOP caucus results were:

Romney 41.4%
McCain 22.0%
Huckabee 19.9%
Paul 15.7%
and Romney gets a plurality in all 8 CDs

So yes, under 2012 RNC rules, MN could write its allocation rules so that Romney gets 41.4% of the delegates, McCain gets 22.0% of the delegates, Huckabee 19.9%, etc.  But they could also write their rules such that 24 delegates are WTA by CD (all going to Romney), and the remaining 13 delegates are distribution between Romney and McCain, as Huck and Paul don't crack 20%.

(EDIT: Oh yeah, and I forgot the best part.  States can also include a provision in their allocation rules such that it reverts to WTA if one candidate gets more than 50%.  So again, this isn't real PR.)

These options would be available to the states with primaries in March.  The states with primaries in Jan. / Feb. would be hit with the additional penalty of the 50% delegate cut.  And it's unclear whether they'd have the same options with respect to PR, or if they'd be forced into full blown statewide PR for all of their delegates.  It may depend on how the RNC ends up interpreting the rule, which hasn't been decided yet.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on February 28, 2011, 05:18:01 pm
FHQ gets a copy of the actual text of the new RNC rules:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/02/update-on-2012-republican-delegate.html

and notes that we've all been misled on the proportionality requirement.  The rule is written extremely broadly, and allows states to fulfill the requirement by using a statewide PR / WTA by CD hybrid system.  Let me explain:

States with primaries after April 1 can allocate their delegates however they like.  States that vote before April "have to allocate their delegates by PR", but it's really faux-PR, at least for those states with primaries in March.

Let me use MN as an example.  MN held their caucus on the first Tuesday of February in 2008.  For 2012, they've moved to March 6th.  That means that they can't allocate their delegates via WTA.  They have to use a system that incorporates PR.  If they want to allocate all 37 of their delegates by PR, they may do so.  But if they want to, they can actually allocate up to 24 of those delegates by CD, with the winner of each of the 8 CDs in the state getting 3 delegates, and the remaining 13 delegates being allocated proportionally based on the statewide total.  (The fraction of delegates that can be used for WTA by CD varies by state, but is typically over 50% of the state's delegates.)  And even with those 13 delegates allocated by statewide PR, the state can set a minimum threshold as high as 20% if they like.

In 2008, the MN GOP caucus results were:

Romney 41.4%
McCain 22.0%
Huckabee 19.9%
Paul 15.7%
and Romney gets a plurality in all 8 CDs

So yes, under 2012 RNC rules, MN could write its allocation rules so that Romney gets 41.4% of the delegates, McCain gets 22.0% of the delegates, Huckabee 19.9%, etc.  But they could also write their rules such that 24 delegates are WTA by CD (all going to Romney), and the remaining 13 delegates are distribution between Romney and McCain, as Huck and Paul don't crack 20%.

(EDIT: Oh yeah, and I forgot the best part.  States can also include a provision in their allocation rules such that it reverts to WTA if one candidate gets more than 50%.  So again, this isn't real PR.)

These options would be available to the states with primaries in March.  The states with primaries in Jan. / Feb. would be hit with the additional penalty of the 50% delegate cut.  And it's unclear whether they'd have the same options with respect to PR, or if they'd be forced into full blown statewide PR for all of their delegates.  It may depend on how the RNC ends up interpreting the rule, which hasn't been decided yet.


I thought state's leeway in deciding how PR is implemented was reported when the new rules passed, no?  I remember something about the RNC chairman being able to arbitrarily decide who gets punished too which excited me, at least while Steele was still in charge.

I wonder if IA and NH get punished if everyone else goes in February and they say look we have no choice.  We're special.

As for the 20% threshold... I don't think it's impossible Iowa can be won with <20% if you have folks who are middling run with some level of parity like Romney, Palin, Pawlenty, Daniels, Gingrich, Bachmann.  How wonderful would it be if no one won any Iowa delegates?!  Probably a pipe dream.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 28, 2011, 05:28:08 pm
I thought state's leeway in deciding how PR is implemented was reported when the new rules passed, no?

It was reported that the rule was vague, but this is the first time it's been made explicit that the states are actually free to allocate a majority of their delegates by WTA by CD, escaping proportionality altogether for all but about 1/3rd of their delegates.

Quote
As for the 20% threshold... I don't think it's impossible Iowa can be won with <20% if you have folks who are middling run with some level of parity like Romney, Palin, Pawlenty, Daniels, Gingrich, Bachmann.  How wonderful would it be if no one won any Iowa delegates?!  Probably a pipe dream.

20% is the maximum threshold that states can set as their minimum for getting delegates.  But they're free to set that threshold anywhere between 0% and 20%.  Iowa has traditionally used something approximating straight PR, and will probably do the same in 2012.  McCain even got a delegate there in 2000, despite getting less than 5% of the vote.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: True Federalist on February 28, 2011, 08:00:46 pm
To start with, I'll try to post what I understand the "current" calendar to be in the near future.  I'll get to that soon, and edit this post appropriately.  In the meantime, here are two versions of it:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2010/06/2012-presidential-primary-calendar.html
(that is a very useful blog on this topic btw)

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c

Neither one of those blogs get everything right concerning South Carolina.  Frontloading gives a more likely date for the South Carolina GOP primary, but neglects the fact the parties can, have, and likely will, have their primaries on different dates.

Quote

NOTES:

- There's no point listing even tentative dates for IA, NH, and SC.  IA and NH will wait until every other state has set their primary date, then go before them (not counting events like the WY county conventions, which the candidates and the media will likely ignore anyway).  SC will make sure to go before any other southern state.

Unless the truly unexpected happens and Obama faces a real primary challenge, the SCDP is not going to make waves and will not be going before the February 28 date the DNC has set as their earliest possible date.  Indeed, instead of Feb 28, they might even decide to go on June 12 so as to have their presidential primary coincide with primary for the other offices.  Not that I think they will, but it wouldn't shock me in the least.

The date of the Republican primary is similarly easy to figure out.  So long as Florida remains at Jan 31, SC will go on Jan 28.  If Florida goes at least one week later, the SC GOP primary will be on Feb 4.  (Too many states currently on Feb 7 to expect any other dates from the SC GOP.  Of course, if some other State tries to push back into January, SC will make certain they go before them.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 28, 2011, 09:18:43 pm
To start with, I'll try to post what I understand the "current" calendar to be in the near future.  I'll get to that soon, and edit this post appropriately.  In the meantime, here are two versions of it:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2010/06/2012-presidential-primary-calendar.html
(that is a very useful blog on this topic btw)

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c

Neither one of those blogs get everything right concerning South Carolina.  Frontloading gives a more likely date for the South Carolina GOP primary, but neglects the fact the parties can, have, and likely will, have their primaries on different dates.

Like me, FHQ is only tracking the GOP calendar.  The Dem. calendar is unimportant (unless and until Obama gets a serious primary challenger).

Quote
The date of the Republican primary is similarly easy to figure out.  So long as Florida remains at Jan 31, SC will go on Jan 28.  If Florida goes at least one week later, the SC GOP primary will be on Feb 4. 

Why is that a given?  In 2008, SC positioned itself 10 days before Florida rather than 3.  Why isn't that a possibility for 2012?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: True Federalist on February 28, 2011, 11:01:41 pm
To start with, I'll try to post what I understand the "current" calendar to be in the near future.  I'll get to that soon, and edit this post appropriately.  In the meantime, here are two versions of it:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2010/06/2012-presidential-primary-calendar.html
(that is a very useful blog on this topic btw)

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c

Neither one of those blogs get everything right concerning South Carolina.  Frontloading gives a more likely date for the South Carolina GOP primary, but neglects the fact the parties can, have, and likely will, have their primaries on different dates.

Like me, FHQ is only tracking the GOP calendar.  The Dem. calendar is unimportant (unless and until Obama gets a serious primary challenger).

But FHQ gives February 28 (the earliest date the Democrats can and be compliant) as the date the GOP might move to, but the GOP only requires SC be after Feb 1.  Unless everybody on Super Tuesday moves to March, which won't happen, the absolute latest the SC GOP primary could happen is Feb 4.

Quote

Quote
The date of the Republican primary is similarly easy to figure out.  So long as Florida remains at Jan 31, SC will go on Jan 28.  If Florida goes at least one week later, the SC GOP primary will be on Feb 4. 

Why is that a given?  In 2008, SC positioned itself 10 days before Florida rather than 3.  Why isn't that a possibility for 2012?

Back when the 2008 date was set, several states were still considering moving earlier, and Nevada had already scheduled its caucus for the same date as South Carolina chose for its primary.  They went for 10 days before because they wanted to be (along with Nevada) not just the first in the South, but also the first after Iowa and New Hampshire.  (As it was, Michigan later changed to before South Carolina.)  Nevada has moved its caucuses to mid-February and at the moment, no State is considering moving its contest into January.  If the present circumstances hold, South Carolina has no reason to not be considerate to Iowa and New Hampshire, especially if Florida moves its primary later.  Feb 4 would fall within the RNC guidelines,


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 28, 2011, 11:14:48 pm
Quote

Quote
The date of the Republican primary is similarly easy to figure out.  So long as Florida remains at Jan 31, SC will go on Jan 28.  If Florida goes at least one week later, the SC GOP primary will be on Feb 4.

Why is that a given?  In 2008, SC positioned itself 10 days before Florida rather than 3.  Why isn't that a possibility for 2012?

Back when the 2008 date was set, several states were still considering moving earlier, and Nevada had already scheduled its caucus for the same date as South Carolina chose for its primary.  They went for 10 days before because they wanted to be (along with Nevada) not just the first in the South, but also the first after Iowa and New Hampshire.  (As it was, Michigan later changed to before South Carolina.)  Nevada has moved its caucuses to mid-February and at the moment, no State is considering moving its contest into January.  If the present circumstances hold, South Carolina has no reason to not be considerate to Iowa and New Hampshire, especially if Florida moves its primary later.  Feb 4 would fall within the RNC guidelines,

If Florida moves later, then I agree SC would go on Feb. 4th to stay within RNC rules.  If Florida stays on Jan. 31st, then SC might just as easily move to the 21st as 28th, just in case.  It gives SC more of a buffer on either side, and decreases the probability that some candidates will try to sidestep SC in favor of FL.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on March 01, 2011, 03:37:54 pm
Why does Florida want to go so early and lose half its delegation?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: True Federalist on March 01, 2011, 09:10:21 pm
If Florida moves later, then I agree SC would go on Feb. 4th to stay within RNC rules.  If Florida stays on Jan. 31st, then SC might just as easily move to the 21st as 28th, just in case.  It gives SC more of a buffer on either side, and decreases the probability that some candidates will try to sidestep SC in favor of FL.

The sidestep argument holds more weight than the buffer argument.  They tried a buffer last time and it failed as Michigan still ended up going before South Carolina.  In any case, we'll know for certain if South Carolina goes on Jan 21 no later than  Oct 21.  (Current state law specifies that a party has to inform the SEC (State Election Commission) at least ninety days before of the date they intend to hold the primary, but exactly ninety days before, Oct 23, is on a Sunday, so they'd need to inform them on the Friday before that.)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 04, 2011, 11:52:05 pm
OK, it appears I was led astray by a mistake by FHQ on the date of Minnesota's caucus.  It should be Feb. 7th.  Apparently, state law sets both parties' caucuses as the first Tuesday of Feb., unless the state has the consent of both political parties to move that date.  The parties have to agree to this before March 1st of the year before the caucuses:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0211/Minnesota_caucus_could_scramble_12_calendar.html

Well, March 1st has come and gone, and the Minnesota GOP refused to move the caucus date.  So it's still scheduled for Feb. 7th.  The MN GOP says this shouldn't be a problem for the primary calendar because the caucus is "non-binding".  But technically, I think almost all the caucuses are non-binding, so I think it kind of is a problem for the RNC pushing the calendar later.  Just another indication that the primaries are likely going to start in early January again.

Meanwhile, it looks like Michigan, which is currently scheduled for Feb. 28th, has no intention of moving later to avoid sanctions, and may again move *earlier*, as in 2008:

http://detnews.com/article/20110304/POLITICS02/103040402/Michigan-will-try-again-for-early-primary


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 05, 2011, 01:54:23 am
And now a bipartisan group of state legislators in Georgia has offered a bill that would allow the Georgia Secretary of State (currently a Republican) to set the state's primary date himself:

http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2011/03/04/in-a-game-of-presidential-primary-poker-georgia-will-play-it-close-to-the-vest/

He'd be able to name any date he likes, provided that it's no earlier than Jan. 30th and no later than the 2nd Tuesday of June.  And he wouldn't have to announce the date until Dec. 1, thus potentially waiting out every other state.

Apparently, the speculation is that this might be a bid to join Florida on Jan. 31st, but Georgia wants to wait and see how the current clash between Florida and the RNC plays out before committing to that date.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: True Federalist on March 05, 2011, 10:10:00 am
Apparently, the speculation is that this might be a bid to join Florida on Jan. 31st, but Georgia wants to wait and see how the current clash between Florida and the RNC plays out before committing to that date.

If Florida stays on January 31 and Georgia joins it, then South Carolina will go for January 21.  They might have gone for just a three day window if it was only Florida to worry about, but not if Georgia joins them.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: A-Bob on March 06, 2011, 05:17:42 pm
Geez, we really don't have a lot of time left. For states that want change, most have to go to the legislature, and in most cases states are already halfway done meaning few new bills will be able to enter and make it out before the session closes.

If it weren't for Florida being such narcissists this could have worked out where only the first four states went in February, and then the rest in March and April mainly. Florida could have even gone at the end of February (though it wouldn't be worth it to lose half their delegates).


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 06, 2011, 06:46:18 pm
Geez, we really don't have a lot of time left. For states that want change, most have to go to the legislature, and in most cases states are already halfway done meaning few new bills will be able to enter and make it out before the session closes.

A lot of states have bills in the pipeline.  Of course, not all of them will pass.  Virginia actually has a bill that would move the primary later that's been passed by both houses, and is just waiting for McDonnell's signature.  Every Feb. 7th primary state except DE, NY, and UT has a bill having to do with primary timing that's at least been proposed, if not yet voted on.  Utah is actually the most significant case, as they have a very short legislative session, which actually ends as early as this coming week.  So the chances are pretty good that Utah will be sticking with Feb. 7th.

Quote
If it weren't for Florida being such narcissists this could have worked out where only the first four states went in February, and then the rest in March and April mainly. Florida could have even gone at the end of February (though it wouldn't be worth it to lose half their delegates).

I don't think that's true at all.  As previously mentioned, it's not just Florida.  There are several February primary/caucus states that aren't going to move.  Utah will probably stay on Feb. 7th.  MN is likely going to stay on Feb. 7th.  New York is a question mark, but nothing's been proposed in the legislature yet.  Arizona probably isn't going to move later.  Michigan probably isn't going to move later, and might even move earlier.

The DNC and RNC were naive if they actually thought their rules changes were going to be enough to shift the start of primary season back to February.  It was never going to work.  They only way to stop primary season from starting in January is via federal legislation.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on March 06, 2011, 07:14:11 pm
I also think NH, IA etc would call special leg. sessions to make sure their primary is the earliest/most rad.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 06, 2011, 07:38:41 pm
I also think NH, IA etc would call special leg. sessions to make sure their primary is the earliest/most rad.

They don't need them.  In Iowa, the individual state parties set the caucus date (and the two parties don't have to go on the same day, though historically they have).  In NH, the Secretary of State sets the primary himself (the same system being proposed in Georgia).  That way, they can wait until very late in the game before announcing their primary date.

That's part of the hypocrisy of IA and NH.  They yell and scream about other states breaking national party rules by going too early, but then they also insist that they're not going to be bound by national party rules themselves, and will move their primaries earlier than everyone else no matter what the national parties say.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: The Mikado on March 09, 2011, 02:16:46 pm
It occurs to me that if a lot of states (including big ones like FL, MI, and NY) take the 50% delegate penalty, then if their gamble fails and the race is still competitive by Super Tuesday, the leftover big states will have vastly disproportionate influence (like TX).


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on March 09, 2011, 03:17:43 pm
Mikado,
Half-true.  Their gamble won't fail so much in that they'll still be showered with candidate visits and ad buys, just that later states will as well.  I used to think it was going to screw Romney over but looks like Cali will move their primary to June and I like his chances there with a one-on-one race if it comes down to it.  Varies by opponent but generally it seems like a strong state for him and a motherlode of delegates.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 11, 2011, 06:10:13 pm
Utah is now locked in to a Feb. 7th primary, as the state legislature has adjourned for the year, without changing the primary date:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/03/update-on-utah-locked-in-on-feb-7.html

While the Utah GOP could still decide to hold a later caucus that they pay for themselves (as opposed to the primary, which the state pays for), there's no reason to believe that's going to happen.  The state appears to be essentially a lock for a Feb. 7th primary, which is a month earlier than the national parties would like.

We now seem to have something of a split among the January / February primary states.  On the one hand, states like California, New Jersey, Virginia, Missouri, Tennessee, Maryland, and others all have bills in the pipeline to move the primary to March or later, and all seem to be on track to do so.  In each of those cases, the push for a later primary appears to be bipartisan.

On the flip side, the states that look most willing to defy DNC and RNC wishes, and stick with January or February primaries are Utah, Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Minnesota.  They all seem willing to accept the risk of a 50% delegate loss in order to go early.

The biggest question mark remains New York.  If California moves to June as expected, then New York is the biggest delegate prize among February primaries.  Are they going to move too?  There haven't yet been any bills presented in the legislature that would effect primary timing, and I'm not aware of any public statements by any state legislative leaders on this.  But I believe the New York legislature meets year round, so there should still be plenty of time on this.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 11, 2011, 06:41:28 pm
The Utah legislature adjourns for the year in March?! What.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 11, 2011, 06:52:15 pm
Yeah, the Utah legislature only meets for about six and a half weeks a year (between January and March):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utah_State_Legislature

There are several other states that only meet between January and April.  And on the other end of the spectrum, you've got states whose legislatures are in session pretty much year round.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 16, 2011, 04:44:58 am
OK, looks like everyone got the Utah story wrong.  True, the legislature didn't change the primary date, but they also failed to appropriate any money for the primary next year:

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/blogsoutofcontext/51428755-64/primary-date-utah-party.html.csp

Which means that, while Utah law says there will be a primary on Feb. 7th, there actually won't be one, because there's no money for it.  The parties are on their own, and have to fund their own delegate contests, which might be a party-run primary, or a caucus, or a state convention, or whatever.  It sounds like the Utah GOP will likely go late with their contest, possibly as late as June.

So I've changed the calendar in the OP to reflect this, and would also now amend the list of states I consider most likely to defy national party rules to go early as: FL, GA, AZ, MI, and MN.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 18, 2011, 10:50:01 pm
Missouri joins the states with a good chance of keeping an early primary.  There had been some support in both parties for moving to a later date, but the GOP leadership was divided on the issue, and when a bill came up in the state senate to move the primary to March, a Republican senator offered an amendment that would actually require that the primary be held just one week after NH (whenever NH decides to hold its primary) instead, and the amendment passed by a vote of 16-14:

http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/dfbdf304c117464986fbb88495d044e8/MO-XGR--Presidential-Primary/

It's not clear that the revised bill is actually going to go anywhere, and even if both houses passed it, it would probably be vetoed by Nixon.  But this definitely increases the chances that the legislature simply won't be able to agree on when to schedule the primary, which means that it stays on Feb. 7th, one month earlier than the national parties would like.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 23, 2011, 02:14:44 am
Yeah, the Utah legislature only meets for about six and a half weeks a year (between January and March):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utah_State_Legislature

There are several other states that only meet between January and April.  And on the other end of the spectrum, you've got states whose legislatures are in session pretty much year round.

And then, of course, there's Texas, whose legislature only meets every other year.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: The Mikado on March 24, 2011, 11:58:11 am
Yeah, the Utah legislature only meets for about six and a half weeks a year (between January and March):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utah_State_Legislature

There are several other states that only meet between January and April.  And on the other end of the spectrum, you've got states whose legislatures are in session pretty much year round.

And then, of course, there's Texas, whose legislature only meets every other year.

They'll likely have a bunch of special sessions this term, though.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Likely Voter on March 24, 2011, 01:21:49 pm
question for those who are following this? What is up with Florida? Are they really sticking with late Jan date? And if so, then is NV going to move into Jan (along with IA, NH and SC)?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on March 26, 2011, 12:42:34 am
question for those who are following this? What is up with Florida? Are they really sticking with late Jan date? And if so, then is NV going to move into Jan (along with IA, NH and SC)?

I thought Florida had relented to at least move to February.  Not sure if that changes anything.  Guess my streak of thorough linking to sources and not being lazy continues.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 26, 2011, 01:07:01 am
There are bills in both houses of the Florida legislature to move the primary later, but they're backed by Democrats, while it's the Republicans who are in the majority.  The GOP leadership in the legislature says they're willing to move to February, but only if Florida can still go before any other state besides IA, NH, NV, and SC.  Since at least a couple of the Feb. 7th states are probably going to stay where they are, I don't see Florida moving.

Florida's legislative session ends on May 6th, so that's the deadline for making a change.  Two other February primary states (Arizona and Georgia) have legislative sessions that end in April.  There haven't been any bills proposed in the Arizona legislature to move the primary.  And in Georgia, the only bill to move the primary would actually allow the state's Secretary of State to set the primary date unilaterally, allowing him to go as early as Jan. 30th if he wants.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on March 26, 2011, 12:21:21 pm
Even if Florida was willing to go in April, if even one rebel state stays Feb 7, Iowa obviously ends up mid-January at latest.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Likely Voter on March 26, 2011, 04:43:58 pm
So has NV indicated they are going to move into Jan to secure position as fourth state? NV is pretty important for Romney. He needs that second win after NH to fend off losses in IA and SC.

If NV does not move, Romney could go into the fourth contest (either FL or a mini-super Tuesday on Feb 7) facing a candidate with two wins (IA and SC), he needs NV to at least make it even (or have him facing two single win candidates). 


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: The Mikado on March 26, 2011, 04:56:49 pm
So, should all this happen, we'd be looking at the first 10 or so states having half-delegates?  Wouldn't big states like FL, MI, and others, besides, having half delegates mean that the later states would have that much more weight if the contest ends up split like 2008?  (Texas, especially, will be a heavyweight)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on March 26, 2011, 06:14:48 pm
Romney's strategy is being reported to expect a couple early losses to go with wins in NH and NV, hunker down for a long, expensive slog.  And/or they're just lowering expectations in IA and SC.  No doubt he doesn't want Pawlenty to be the other finalist and prefers a Bachmann or Palin blows him out of the race early.

Mikado, definitely. And many late states looked bad for Romney.  But the California bill to go in June passed committee easily, which depending on who he faces could be like playing Game 7 at home. I do think it'll be unsettled until June.  One can only hope the race is long, messy and dirty.  Even as a Democrat, Obama vs. Hillary was high entertainment.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 27, 2011, 07:19:09 pm
So has NV indicated they are going to move into Jan to secure position as fourth state? NV is pretty important for Romney. He needs that second win after NH to fend off losses in IA and SC.

Nevada is still clinging to the hope that all the other states will move into March like the RNC wants them to.  Of course, that's not really going to happen.  Not all of them are going to move.  Nevada will probably move up into January in the end, but nothing's certain.

So, should all this happen, we'd be looking at the first 10 or so states having half-delegates?  Wouldn't big states like FL, MI, and others, besides, having half delegates mean that the later states would have that much more weight if the contest ends up split like 2008?  (Texas, especially, will be a heavyweight)

Yes, there could end up being a lot of states with half delegates.  But remember, back in 2008, the RNC had similar 50% delegate penalties for states with January primaries, including NH, SC, and FL.  But even with delegate penalties, McCain basically won the nomination by winning those three states.  He won because the momentum he got from winning those states carried over into Super Tuesday and beyond.  That's the gamble that each of these states is making by setting early primaries dates.  The gamble is that "momentum" trumps delegates.

This is a good read that I've linked to before:

http://www.slate.com/id/2179500/pagenum/all

"We don't nominate presidents anymore by getting to the point where somebody has a majority of the delegates. We nominate someone when we get to the point that there is a communal sense that one of the candidates has effectively won the nomination and the race is over."

Of course, that was said just before the 2008 Democratic race, a contest in which delegates actually mattered more than momentum.  Maybe the 2012 GOP race will end up like that.  But there's no way to know yet.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on March 27, 2011, 11:12:39 pm
On communal sense and momentum over delegates... I'd be surprised if that's not gone for good. Nate Silver argues Romney could either score a quick KO or win a long slog.  But Silver is himself the one who exposed the media's dishonesty in prolonging Obama Hillary by misrepresenting her chance to catch him in delegates (or chance to win with a deficit in pledged delegates).  I would bet on a long slog if it was on intrade.  If Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire and is polling ahead in NV and FL and competitive in SC, the media including FOX (or powerful parts thereof) will frantically report on polls showing resistance to a candidate who passed a mandate, polls showing Romney weak in the South and Midwest, downplay the NH win as favorite son, puff up another choice.  If Pawlenty wins IA and NH, they'll give his fake Southern drawl the Dean scream treatment.  The object of (even conservative) media will be make the GOP the party of no consensus.  With McCain, the GOP was winner-take-all so their hands were tied when he won CA and NY and Romney obliged by dropping out.  A Huckabee comeback was not slightly feasible and they already had Obama v. Hillary to sell.  They need the GOP to be their show next year and the light (penalized) delegate prizes up front will give them ample ammo to blow away the Gladwellian scenario in your linked article.  Even if Bachmann is hanging on and Rove, Brooks and George Will are shouting to call the fight for Romney, others will remind you every other minute, he's still way short of the clinching # and this is far from over.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 27, 2011, 11:32:00 pm
Yes, the media has something of an interest in prolonging the nomination fight.  And yet, that's been the case forever, and there are still many cases in which a winner is annointed very early.  The most extreme recent case is the Democratic race in 2004.  Kerry looked to be dead in the water as late as December 2003.  Then, once the primary voting actually starts, he wins back to back victories in IA and NH, and he becomes the putative nominee.  The race ended right away, well before he had amassed a majority of delegates, despite the fact that every Democratic primary assigned delegates by proportional representation.

Maybe the 2012 GOP nomination race will be like that.  Maybe it won't be.  There's no reliable way to predict such things this far in advance.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on March 28, 2011, 12:19:54 am
Fair enough.  Certainly the media helped destroy Dean post-Iowa which arguably shortened the contest.  Likewise, if Palin served up a doozy of a gaffe in a South Carolina debate, hard to imagine they'd be able to resist the temptation to pounce on it no matter their bigger agenda.  I do see analogies to Democrats 2004. Massachusetts flipflopper linkable to president on the issue that most motivates your own base's anger.  But also a background well-suited to the particular election.  Here's a difference: Kerry's war vote wasn't the exception.  I do think if John Edwards had been a consistent Iraq War opponent who'd voted no on authorization, Kerry might have struggled after early sweeps.  If Romney starts off running the table, he's still the only one so connected to ObamaCare and at most one of two Mormons.  But maybe it won't be enough or maybe  Pawlenty will be the one off to the races...


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 28, 2011, 04:39:52 am
Virginia officially moves to March 6th, to avoid the 50% delegate penalty:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/03/gov-mcdonnell-makes-it-official.html

I've updated the calendar in the OP accordingly.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on March 28, 2011, 06:50:32 pm
Theoretically, Reince Preibus could use his power to exempt a bunch of early big states like Florida to ensure there is a guarranteed front runner comming out of January into the Super Tuesday whether in Feb or March (likely February at this point). A prime candidate for such treatment would be Florida since its large and early, though that would anger SC considerably as FL would become cemented as the Southern king maker.

Preibus would seem to be someone who wants it over and done with quickly. He doesn't want to be remembered as the guy who failed to oust Obama during his term, and that would be impossible to prevent if this doesn't end till June in California, or even worse, at the Convention in Tampa.


Title: Calendar war escalates among Republicans
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 31, 2011, 11:27:47 am
If Mr. Morden considers it more appropriate, I have no problem with him merging this thread with the pinned one about the primary calendar.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0311/SC_Republicans_escalate_calendar_feud.html?showall (http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0311/SC_Republicans_escalate_calendar_feud.html?showall)

South Carolina Republican Party Chair Karen Floyd today brought into the open the simmering tensions between the traditional early states and the others -- particularly Florida -- jockeying to break into the primary calendar.
Floyd's demand: If Florida won't step aside, the RNC should move its convention out of the state.

She writes to fellow RNC members:

...

Simply put, if Florida does not respect the process by which our primary calendar was set, the RNC should not be bound to the process by which the convention site was selected.

If Florida refuses to move its primary date into compliance with RNC rules, I am respectfully requesting that the Committee convene a special task force to select a new site for the 2012 Convention outside the state of Florida...

...

It is, in other words, on.



Title: Re: Calendar war escalates among Republicans
Post by: Tender Branson on March 31, 2011, 11:37:49 am
I support Karen Floyd on this.

It would be better if Florida moves to Super Tuesday instead.


Title: Re: Calendar war escalates among Republicans
Post by: Bull Moose Base on March 31, 2011, 11:45:25 am
Do you mean Super March Tuesday?  I think going 2/7 wouldn't change South Carolina etc's plans.  Though it'd diminish Florida's status a bit and they'd probably still prefer it to seeing FL go 1/31.  Btw, if you're getting hit with penalties regardless, why would any state go in Feb instead of Jan?


Title: Re: Calendar war escalates among Republicans
Post by: Likely Voter on March 31, 2011, 01:57:29 pm
i agree, FL is throwing a wrench into this whole thing and they are thumbing their noses at the RNC, so why should they also be awarded with the convention.


Title: Re: Calendar war escalates among Republicans
Post by: #IAintAfraidOfNoGoats on March 31, 2011, 03:36:38 pm
Indiana should move it's Presidential Primary to one of those Super Tuesday dates. It's kinda silly to have a primary so late that by the time it comes around the nomination is already clinched.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 31, 2011, 05:23:18 pm
Merged into the primary calendar thread.

i agree, FL is throwing a wrench into this whole thing and they are thumbing their noses at the RNC, so why should they also be awarded with the convention.

It's not just Florida though.  There are several other states that will hold early primaries as well, inviting RNC sanctions.  Florida is just the most extreme case at the moment.

Again, the DNC/RNC plan for moving the start of primary season a month later was never going to work.  As long as the individual states are running and paying for their own primaries, there is going to be primary calendar "chaos".  If the RNC wants later primaries, they should pay for the primaries themselves.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: jimrtex on April 13, 2011, 11:29:55 pm
Texas is likely to move its primary to April to avoid the penalty for not using proportional delegate allocation.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 14, 2011, 06:00:38 am
Texas is likely to move its primary to April to avoid the penalty for not using proportional delegate allocation.


Indeed, it's being talked about.  But have any bills to do that actually been put forward on this in the legislature yet?

Anyway, a lot of activity going on in state legislatures at the moment to move some of the February primaries later, to avoid sanctions.  In Maryland, Oklahoma, and DC, legislatures have passed bills to move the respective primaries later, and those bills are now awaiting the signature of the governor (or mayor, in the case of DC).

But the most interesting activity is in the states that have gone rogue.  States that have primaries in January/February, and want to keep them there, or move even earlier: Florida, Georgia, Michigan, and Missouri.  (Well, Arizona and Minnesota too, but there's nothing new to report there.)

Florida

The Florida Speaker of the House has indicated that he will introduce legislation to set up a 10 person committee (3 people each appointed by the governor and both houses of the legislature, plus the Secretary of State in a non-voting role), that would have the power to set the state's primary whenever they want, between the first Tuesday in January and the first Tuesday in March:

link (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/florida_delaying_primary_decision/2011/04/13/AFXvMGXD_blog.html?wprss=the-fix)

So yes, if Florida gets too annoyed by the RNC harrassing it, they could move their primary even *earlier*, bumping Iowa and NH into December.  Florida's legislative session ends on May 6, but if they vote to create this committee, the committee would be able to defer the choice of a primary date until as late as October.

Georgia

Georgia is currently scheduled for Feb. 7th, which leaves them open to the 50% delegate penalty.  However, Georgia wants to go early anyway.  The House has passed a bill that would grant the Secretary of State (a Republican, at present) the power to decide the primary date on his own, but that hasn't been passed by the Senate, and the last day of the Georgia legislature's 2011 session is *today*.  So if it doesn't pass today, Georgia will stick with a Feb. 7th primary.

Michigan

Michigan's primary is Feb. 28th, which breaks national party rules.  But Michigan has no intention of moving later.  They may end up moving *earlier*.  Earlier this week, a bill was introduced to move the primary up to Jan. 31st, the same day as Florida:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/04/bill-introduced-in-michigan-house-to.html

We'll have to wait and see what happens to that bill.  Michigan's legislature is in session all year, so this controversy could go well into the fall.

Missouri

Missouri's primary is scheduled for Feb. 7th.  Again, in violation of national party rules.  The House passed a bill to move the primary back to March 6th.  But the Senate passed a bill that would anchor the primary to NH, and hold it one week after NH, whenever NH votes.  Not clear what's going to happen.  There's a good chance that the legislature will be deadlocked, and the primary will stay on Feb. 7th.  The legislature adjourns on May 30th.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on April 14, 2011, 01:58:51 pm
Wow.  What if Florida, Georgia, and Michigan all end up on January 31?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 16, 2011, 07:21:35 am
Wow.  What if Florida, Georgia, and Michigan all end up on January 31?

That's a very real possibility now that the Georgia Senate has indeed passed the bill that would give the state's Secretary of State the power to set the primary whenever he likes, going as early as Jan. 31 if he wants:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/04/georgia-senate-passes-presidential.html

The bill has now passed both houses of the legislature, and goes to Gov. Deal to sign.

In Missouri, things have gotten more crazy, with the relevant committee in the House approving a bill that would move Missouri's primary all the way up to November 2011(!):

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/04/did-missouri-house-up-ante-on-state.html

I'm nor sure that version is really going to pass the full House.  But it's looking more likely that either the legislature will deadlock, or they'll pass an early primary bill that Nixon will veto, and Missouri will still have an early primary on Feb. 7th, which is the status quo.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: jimrtex on April 18, 2011, 09:52:36 pm
Texas is likely to move its primary to April to avoid the penalty for not using proportional delegate allocation.
Indeed, it's being talked about.  But have any bills to do that actually been put forward on this in the legislature yet?
SB 100, HB 111, and HB 3585 are all intended to implement the Federal MOVE act which requires a 45-day mail out period for military voters for all federal elections.  This causes a problem in Texas, because of the time between the primary and the primary runoff, because Texas combines the statewide primary and presidential primary, and because of the filing deadline.

If Texas leaves the primary in March, the filing deadline would have to be moved into December to provide enough time for ballots to be prepared and mailed out in mid-January.  A December filing deadline conflicts with a constitutional provision that requires county office holders to resign if they file for another office in the middle of the term.  A December filing deadline is more than a year before the end of the term.  So let's say that you are in a 3rd year of a 4-year term as county commissioner.  You decide to run for county judge in November 2012.  You have just resigned the last year of your county commissioner term.  It doesn't make a very good platform to have quit the last elected position.

So if they change the filing deadline, they have to also change the constitution, which requires a vote of the people, who might vote NO.  Since the election on the amendment would be in November 2011 there is a risk factor.

If they keep the March primary, the runoff will have to be moved from early April to mid-to-late May, where it steps on local elections.  So they have to sort of fudge this.  In Texas, primaries are conducted by the political parties - though they typically receive a lot of assistance from the counties, including use of voting machines, and the counties conduct early voting.  But they can't be combined with nonpartisan local elections.  So what they have done is told cities and school districts that want to keep a May 2012 election, they may have to run the election themselves, and might not have any voting equipment from the county.  With early voting, you will have two overlapping elections.

If they move the primary to April, they can keep a January filing deadline, and have a runoff in June.  There is still a conflict with the local elections, but perhaps a bit less.

The original versions of SB 100, HB 111, and HB 3585 have no calendar changes, but are being amended in committee.  SB 100 has passed the senate with a March primary, May runoff, and December filing deadline.


Title: Re: WA likely to suspend 2012 primary
Post by: bgwah on April 20, 2011, 07:18:31 pm
Update: it's official. Washington has canceled its presidential primary. Washington will definitely be a top target for Paul and whoever becomes the religious right candidate.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on April 20, 2011, 07:48:37 pm
So did the bill with Georgia go through?


Title: Re: WA likely to suspend 2012 primary
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 20, 2011, 07:50:17 pm
Update: it's official. Washington has canceled its presidential primary. Washington will definitely be a top target for Paul and whoever becomes the religious right candidate.

I don't think it is official.  It's been passed by both houses of the legislature, but I don't think the bill has been signed by the governor yet (though it presumably will be).  I'll update the calendar in the OP once the bill is signed.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 20, 2011, 07:52:19 pm
So did the bill with Georgia go through?

Like I said here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128721.msg2871890#msg2871890

"The bill has now passed both houses of the legislature, and goes to Gov. Deal to sign."

That's where we're at right now.  Deal hasn't signed it yet, but everyone expects that he will.  Just like we have bills in DC, MD, OK, and WA to move or cancel primaries that have been passed by the respectively legislatures but aren't yet signed by the governor (or mayor in the case of DC).


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on April 20, 2011, 09:08:28 pm
So did the bill with Georgia go through?

Like I said here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128721.msg2871890#msg2871890

"The bill has now passed both houses of the legislature, and goes to Gov. Deal to sign."

That's where we're at right now.  Deal hasn't signed it yet, but everyone expects that he will.  Just like we have bills in DC, MD, OK, and WA to move or cancel primaries that have been passed by the respectively legislatures but aren't yet signed by the governor (or mayor in the case of DC).

Oh, sorry.  I missed that.

This will be a pretty neat primary season they way the schedule is shaping up.  It looks like we might have several smaller super-Tuesday like primaries after IA, NH, and SC.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: A-Bob on April 20, 2011, 09:16:20 pm
So did the bill with Georgia go through?

Like I said here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128721.msg2871890#msg2871890

"The bill has now passed both houses of the legislature, and goes to Gov. Deal to sign."

That's where we're at right now.  Deal hasn't signed it yet, but everyone expects that he will.  Just like we have bills in DC, MD, OK, and WA to move or cancel primaries that have been passed by the respectively legislatures but aren't yet signed by the governor (or mayor in the case of DC).

Oh, sorry.  I missed that.

This will be a pretty neat primary season they way the schedule is shaping up.  It looks like we might have several smaller super-Tuesday like primaries after IA, NH, and SC.

That's whay I'm hoping for, it makes the season more fun then have the early states and 20 states on super tuesday. Mini super Tuesdays allow underdogs to make headway and such, and it adds drama :)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 26, 2011, 02:51:45 am
An update on several bills to move or cancel primaries.  In the following states, you have a bill that's been passed by both houses of the legislature, and the move would become official with the signature of the governor (or mayor in the case of DC):

DC (bill would move primary to April 3)
Maryland (bill would move primary to April 3)
Georgia (bill would give the Secretary of State the power to set the primary when he likes)
Oklahoma (bill would move the primary to March 6)
Tennessee (bill would move the primary to March 6)
Washington (bill would cancel the primary, so that delegates for both parties would be allocated by caucus)

As I said, none of those moves is official yet, because the governor (or mayor in the case of DC) still has to sign the bill.  But it's expected to be signed all six of these cases.

There are also of course, efforts to move to later primaries in other February states, like California and New Jersey, but those bills haven't yet passed both houses of the legislature.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 03, 2011, 06:18:04 am
DC has officially moved its primary to April 3:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/dc-to-april-3.html

and I've updated the calendar in the OP.

Also, the Arizona legislature adjourned for the year, and did not move the primary.  That means the primary is locked into February, and Arizona will get hit by the 50% delegate penalty unless the RNC gives them a waiver.  The primary is tentatively scheduled for Feb. 28, but the governor has the power to move it to Feb. 7 if she wishes.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 04, 2011, 04:54:11 am
Mary Fallin signs the bill in Oklahoma, which moves the primary to March 6th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/oklahoma-to-march-6.html

I've updated the calendar in the OP.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 07, 2011, 06:24:23 am
Both houses of the Florida legislature have passed the bill that would turn over the power to set the primary date to a "bipartisan" commission.  It now goes to Gov. Scott for his signature:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/florida-senate-passes-house-primary.html

I put "bipartisan" in scare quotes because the commission would be appointed by the GOP-majority legislature and the Republican governor, so it'll presumably have a Republican majority.  It's expected that the commission would follow the wishes of state Republicans, and schedule the primary for an early date.  Possibly Jan. 31, but possibly some time in February, if the existing February primary states end up moving later.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 10, 2011, 04:11:47 am
Haslam signs the bill which moves Tennessee to March 6th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/tennessee-presidential-primary-to-march.html

I've updated the OP to reflect the revised calendar.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: jimrtex on May 11, 2011, 03:21:39 am
The Texas Defense and Veterans Affairs Committee has supposedly reported a version of SB 100 that would move the date to April.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 11, 2011, 05:44:46 am
Maryland officially moves to April 3:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/maryland-presidential-primary-to-april.html

Missouri is the one to watch right now.  The legislature adjourns for the year on Friday, and the primary is still scheduled for Feb. 7.  The House has passed several bills that would move the primary to a later date, but the Senate won't pass them.  The GOP actually controls both houses of the legislature.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 12, 2011, 12:05:01 pm
Maryland officially moves to April 3:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/maryland-presidential-primary-to-april.html

Missouri is the one to watch right now.  The legislature adjourns for the year on Friday, and the primary is still scheduled for Feb. 7.  The House has passed several bills that would move the primary to a later date, but the Senate won't pass them.  The GOP actually controls both houses of the legislature.


Why this discord between the houses?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 12, 2011, 03:56:15 pm
Maryland officially moves to April 3:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/maryland-presidential-primary-to-april.html

Missouri is the one to watch right now.  The legislature adjourns for the year on Friday, and the primary is still scheduled for Feb. 7.  The House has passed several bills that would move the primary to a later date, but the Senate won't pass them.  The GOP actually controls both houses of the legislature.


Why this discord between the houses?

A narrow majority in the state senate seem to be of the school of thought that says the primary system imposed by the national parties is unfair, and Missouri shouldn't cooperate with it.  They should just go ahead with an early primary, and to heck with what the national parties say.  In the house, I guess they disagree.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 13, 2011, 10:18:15 pm
Deal signs the bill in Georgia that allows the Secretary of State to set the primary date:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/governor-deal-signs-presidential.html

There'd been some earlier speculation that he might go for a January primary, but apparently there's now the suggestion that he might pick April.  In which case, this bill was kind of pointless.  The legislature might as well have just set the date for April itself.

Gregoire signs the bill that cancel's Washington's primary:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/gregoires-signature-cancels-2012.html

I've updated the OP, though Washington still has GOP caucuses tentatively scheduled for February.

Also, the Missouri senate finally relented, and passed a bill that would move the primary to March, which has now been passed by both houses:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/missouri-house-passes-conference.html

The bill now goes to Gov. Nixon, who's expected to sign it.

There still remains an outside chance that Arizona, Florida, Michigan, and Minnesota will be the only states to defy the national parties and hold January/February primaries/caucuses when they're not supposed to.  All the other states still might end up moving later.  Of course, even if it's just those four, that's still enough to make Iowa and New Hampshire hold their contests in January.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 17, 2011, 05:44:19 am
Hawaii caucuses have moved to March 13th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/hawaii-gop-moves-caucuses-to-march-13.html

I've updated the calendar in the OP.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 21, 2011, 12:32:10 am
Scott signs the legislation in Florida that hands the power to set the primary date over to a state-appointed board:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/governor-scott-sign-florida-elections.html

The board would be able to set the primary date to any time between the first week of January and the first week of March.  So I've updated the calendar to put Florida in the "TBD, but they want to go first" category.

We also have the first hints of primary movement in one of the biggest early primary states, New York:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/hints-of-april-24-regional-primary-from.html

New York apparently may join a proposed regional primary with PA, CT, and DE.  Only PA is already scheduled for April 24th.  It's not clear whether the GOP-controlled Senate in NY will go along with the later primary though.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2011, 02:25:28 am
It looks like Super Tuesday so far benefits Mitt Romney the most, with many Obama states in the North East, making it harder for a more conservative Republican to win there.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 21, 2011, 02:33:47 am
It looks like Super Tuesday so far benefits Mitt Romney the most, with many Obama states in the North East, making it harder for a more conservative Republican to win there.

That may be a bit deceptive though, because the larger Democratic states like CA, NY, and NJ tend to have legislative sessions that last almost year-round, whereas Republican states are more likely to only be in session for the first five months of the year or so.  So most of the Republican states that used to be on Feb. 7th have already moved their primaries later, while the Democratic ones like CA and NJ will probably do so later in the year.

I still expect that, in all likelihood, enough of the remaining Feb. 7th states will move that it'll make March 6th the new Super Tuesday.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on May 21, 2011, 06:54:17 am
Morden, do you think it's more likely to have IA, NH, SC, and NV in January or February?  According to your calendar on the OP, I suspect January, am I correct in the assumption?  When do you think we'll know for sure on especially Iowa and New Hampshire since they traditionally the first two states?  IIRC, wasn't it pretty late in 2007 when January 3, 2008 was set as the Iowa Caucus date?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 21, 2011, 07:17:46 am
Morden, do you think it's more likely to have IA, NH, SC, and NV in January or February?  According to your calendar on the OP, I suspect January, am I correct in the assumption?  When do you think we'll know for sure on especially Iowa and New Hampshire since they traditionally the first two states?  IIRC, wasn't it pretty late in 2007 when January 3, 2008 was set as the Iowa Caucus date?

I think there's virtually a 100% chance that Iowa at least will be in January, and I strongly suspect that New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada will be as well (and probably Florida too....plus maybe Michigan).  Even if only one of those states on Feb. 7th or 11th stays put, Iowa and NH will schedule their contests for January, as NH always goes at least 7 days before any other primary, and Iowa always goes a week before NH.

Last time around, the Jan. 8th, 2008 date for the NH wasn't set until Nov. 21, 2007:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21920411/ns/politics-decision_08/t/earliest-ever-nh-primary-set-jan/

It might be set similarly late this time, as Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Michigan may keep us guessing until fairly late in the year.  NH always tries to wait everyone else out, so that they can make sure they go first.  The newly passed legislation in Florida at least means that they'll have to decide by Oct. 1st, so maybe that'll be something of a marker.  If, say, Florida and Michigan both set their primaries for Jan. 31, then that would probably give IA, NH, and SC enough information that they could set their own dates.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: jimrtex on May 26, 2011, 03:43:25 am
States are required to mail military ballots for federal elections 45 days before the election.  So 60 days is probably a minimum.  Florida, South Carolina, and New Hampshire have to get pre-clearance to change their election dates.

Someone ought to do an "early March" all mail-election, and mail out ballots 45 days early.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2011, 10:28:51 pm
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/55631.html (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/55631.html)

Louisiana is moving their caucuses up to either late January or early February and has changed the rules again. Due to Gingrich's implosion this is up for grabs. Jindal is a not-so-covert Romney backer and has been sending out barely coded signals for months to that effect. Sen. Birther will do the opposite of what Jindal does for feudal reasons. JNK is as unpredictable as Palin, ditto for Dardenne. Landry and Scalise will follow Jindal's lead. No public endorsements seem likely at this stage.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 30, 2011, 06:09:24 am
Colorado moves to March 6th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/colorado-presidential-caucuses-move-to.html

Calendar has been updated.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/55631.html (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/55631.html)

Louisiana is moving their caucuses up to either late January or early February and has changed the rules again. Due to Gingrich's implosion this is up for grabs. Jindal is a not-so-covert Romney backer and has been sending out barely coded signals for months to that effect. Sen. Birther will do the opposite of what Jindal does for feudal reasons. JNK is as unpredictable as Palin, ditto for Dardenne. Landry and Scalise will follow Jindal's lead. No public endorsements seem likely at this stage.

Louisiana is one of the states that annoys me by making their delegate selection plans needlessly complicated.  :P

As FHQ notes:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/louisiana-republicans-craft-new.html

they've done the caucus/primary 2-step thing before.  And in fact, even had an early caucus in 2008, which everyone ignored.  Are the delegate allocation rules markedly different this time from last time?  In what way are they different?  For now, I've just got the Louisiana primary on the calendar.  Will add the caucus date as well once they announce a specific date.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on June 04, 2011, 12:16:15 am
Mr. Morden, do you know until which date each state has to set it's primary/caucus date, so that the calendar is finalized ?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: RI on June 04, 2011, 12:18:48 am
The entire calendar may not be finalized until October or November, depending on how long Florida and Georgia wait to decide their dates.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on June 04, 2011, 12:41:01 am
Mr. Morden, do you know until which date each state has to set it's primary/caucus date, so that the calendar is finalized ?


Good question.  For primary states, in most cases (I'll list the exceptions I know about below), the date can remain unresolved until whenever the legislature adjourns.  FHQ lists these dates here:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/01/frontloading-starts-with-state.html

It should be noted that in AL and MO, the legislature has already passed legislation moving the primary to March, and it awaits the respective governors' signatures.  So even though the MO legislature has already adjourned, the primary date there depends on whether Nixon signs the bill or not.  (CT is one to watch right now, as the legislature apparently adjourns within days, and only one house of the legislature has passed legislation moving the primary to March.)

Some of those state legislatures meet year-round.  So they could potentially wait until very late in the year to move.  However, as jimrtex noted, states now have to announce any election date at least ~60 days in advance, in order to mail out military absentee ballots in time.  So we can no longer have a situation where a state sets an early January primary in late November.

States where the primary date can still remain up in the air after the legislature adjourns:

AZ: The primary date is set for Feb. 28, but the governor can move it up to Feb. 7th if she wants.  I don't know what the deadline for that decision is.

FL: "Independent" commission (though it's appointed by the GOP-controlled legislature) sets the primary date, and they have until Oct. 1 to decide.

GA: The state's SoS sets the primary, and he has until Dec. 1 to decide.

NH: The state's SoS sets the primary date, and he can wait as long as he wants before announcing the date.

SC: The state parties set their own primary dates, and I believe they can wait as long as they want before announcing the date.

In the caucus and county/district convention states, the state parties set their own dates, and they can wait as long as they want in announcing what date to hold the caucus.  All of the caucus dates I list should be considered very tentative other than CO, HI, and MN.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: jimrtex on June 05, 2011, 01:04:02 am
Texas ended up keeping the primary on the first Tuesday in March, assuming Perry signs the law.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on June 08, 2011, 03:11:20 am
The Utah GOP has decided to go with a June 26th primary, which puts them at the very end of the primary calendar (three weeks after any other state has voted):

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/06/utah-republicans-opt-to-link-2012.html

It is in fact allowable within the RNC rules to go this late.  Though I think that's the latest any state has ever gone.

Calendar in the OP has thus been updated.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on June 08, 2011, 07:53:32 am
Poor Mittens. :(


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on June 22, 2011, 08:46:36 am
Alabama has moved to March 13, same day as Mississippi and Hawaii:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/06/alabama-presidential-primary-to-march.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on June 25, 2011, 10:55:32 pm
The New York legislature passed a bill that would move the primary to April 24, the same day as PA.  It's not official yet, as Cuomo has to sign the bill, but I would assume that he'll sign it.  It may look like there are still quite a few February primaries on the calendar, but almost all of those states are on track to move their primaries later.  Most of the caucus states will probably do so as well, though that's less certain.  I have no idea what Kansas or Washington are going to do, for example.

But assuming that the caucus states end up moving later just like most of the primary states, there are still going to be four "problem states" (from the perspective of the RNC rules) that seem determined to stick with a Jan/Feb primary or caucus: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota.  MN actually might not be a problem, because the candidates will probably ignore it, since the caucus isn't strictly binding on delegate allocation (though technically, that's the case for a lot of caucuses), and because there's a favorite son and a favorite daughter candidate running.  It's actually possible that NH might go the same day as MN, figuring that the candidates will ignore MN.

The prime movers are likely to be AZ and MI (neither of which are likely to decide anything for another couple of months).  You might end up with something like this:

Feb. 1: IA
Feb. 7: NH, MN
Feb. 18: NV, SC
Feb. 21: FL
Feb. 28: AZ, MI
Mar. 6: Super Tuesday

That's about the latest that the primary season might start.  OTOH, it's just as likely that you'll end up with something like this:

Jan. 5: IA
Jan. 10: NH
Jan. 21: NV, SC
Jan. 24: FL
Jan. 31: MI
Feb. 7: AZ, MN
Feb. 11: KS, WA
Mar. 6: Super Tuesday

Or you could get something in between.  We probably won't know until August or September or so.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: True Federalist on June 26, 2011, 08:15:15 pm
There is a slight chance that the SC GOP will hold a caucus instead of a primary.

(link - The State (http://www.thestate.com/2011/06/26/1874323/veto-could-kill-sc-gop-primary.html))

It looks certain that Haley will issue a line-item veto on the appropriation for a State run presidential primary. It looks probable that the Democrats along with some Tea Party Republicans will vote to sustain that veto. That doesn't rule out the possibility that the SC GOP won't raise the money to hold a primary on its own, and while I think it likely they will, it isn't certain.

The only thing that might derail the GOP primary would be if the Attorney General rules that the State Election Commission cannot rent out its equipment to the GOP for a party-run primary, but I doubt Wilson will do that.  I just can't see the SC GOP being able to get the voting machines needed if it has to bring it in from out of state.


Title: South Carolina Could Kill GOP Primary
Post by: NVGonzalez on June 26, 2011, 11:19:20 pm
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/06/26/south_carolina_could_kill_gop_primary.html



South Carolina's "much-watched first-in-the-South Republican presidential primary could become a far less important first-in-the-South caucus," the Columbia State reports.

"Without the help of the state, the party may not legally be able to hold a primary in early 2012... Gov. Nikki Haley is expected to veto part of a state budget proposal, now on her desk, that could partially pay for that primary."

"Switching to a caucus would end the state's three-decade tradition of holding the first-in-the-South primary. That primary's importance has been bolstered by state Republican voters' record of picking the eventual GOP nominee in every race since Ronald Reagan in 1980. The state also would lose national exposure, prestige and millions of dollars that campaigns, media and others spend during the event."


Title: Re: South Carolina Could Kill GOP Primary
Post by: RIsaff on June 26, 2011, 11:25:27 pm
Womp.


Title: Re: South Carolina Could Kill GOP Primary
Post by: Justice Jbrase on June 26, 2011, 11:44:32 pm
Good, there is no reason for the states to subsidize corporations.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: True Federalist on June 27, 2011, 05:15:31 pm
Elections Commission can run GOP primary, Attorney general says
(link - The State (http://www.thestate.com/2011/06/27/1876585/elections-commission-can-run-gop.html))

As I thought, Wilson okayed the GOP paying for a statewide primary if it can raise the funds, which I think it will be able to do so.  Still, that'll be around $600,000 the GOP wishes it could spend otherwise.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Simfan34 on June 28, 2011, 03:08:57 pm
The Utah GOP has decided to go with a June 26th primary, which puts them at the very end of the primary calendar (three weeks after any other state has voted):

It is in fact allowable within the RNC rules to go this late.  Though I think that's the latest any state has ever gone.

Calendar in the OP has thus been updated.


Putting off the tough decisions... well it'll probably help Huntsman, so why am I complaining?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: True Federalist on June 30, 2011, 10:11:40 am
SC: The state parties set their own primary dates, and I believe they can wait as long as they want before announcing the date.
They have to set the date 90 days before the primary is held, so I can say for certain that the SC primary will not be held any earlier than September 28 of this year. ;)

Quote from: Section 7-11-20(B)(3)
The political party shall give written notice to the State Election Commission of the date set for the party's presidential preference primary no later than ninety days before the date of the primary.

Note this only applies to a State funded primary.  If the GOP raises funds to hold a primary without State assistance, it can hold it whenever it wants to.  Not they will likely do so now that Haley's line-item veto of the appropriation has been overridden.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 01, 2011, 06:53:26 am
The Louisiana primary has been moved to March 24:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/06/louisiana-presidential-primary-to-march.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 07, 2011, 09:05:31 pm
Ohio moved to May 8th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/ohio-presidential-primary-to-may-8.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 08, 2011, 07:58:12 pm
Rhode Island moves to April 24:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/rhode-island-presidential-primary-to.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.

In Missouri, Nixon vetoes the bill that would move the primary to March:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/nixon-vetoes-missouri-presidential.html

He votoed it because of other provisions in the bill, not related to the primary date.  At present, Missouri is scheduled for a Feb. 7th primary, which would mean a 50% delegate penalty.  However, there is likely to be a special legislative session in MO this year, and the primary date is one of the issues that might be revisited.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on July 11, 2011, 02:17:28 pm
Below is my estimation of the final GOP primary season schedule.


February 6, 2012: Iowa caucuses

February 14, 2012: New Hampshire primary

February 18, 2012: Nevada caucuses

February 28, 2012: South Carolina primary

March 1, 2012: Florida primary

March 2, 2012: Georgia primary

March 6, 2012: Colorado, Minnesota caucuses; Arizona, Massachusetts, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia primaries

March 11, 2012: Maine caucuses

March 13, 2012: Hawaii and Wyoming caucuses; Alabama and Mississippi primaries

March 20, 2012: Illinois primary

March 24, 2012: Louisiana primary

April 3, 2012: Maryland, Washington D.C., and Wisconsin primaries

April 14, 2012: Kansas caucuses

April 15, 2012: Alaska and Washington caucuses

April 24, 2012: Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and New York primaries

May 5, 2012: Michigan caucus

May 8, 2012: Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia primaries

May 15, 2012: Idaho, Nebraska, and Oregon primaries

May 22, 2012: Arkansas and Kentucky primaries

June 5, 2012: Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota primaries; North Dakota caucus

June 12, 2012: New Jersey primary

June 19, 2012: California primary

June 26, 2012: Utah caucuses

August 27-30, 2012: Republican National Convention is held in Tampa Bay, Florida


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 11, 2011, 04:02:20 pm
The Arizona legislature has already adjourned for the year, so they can't move the primary later than Feb. 28th.  They can only move *earlier*, if Gov. Brewer decides to do so.

And Feb. 28th is unlikely for SC, since I think they also hold their primary on a Saturday.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on July 11, 2011, 08:05:52 pm
The Arizona legislature has already adjourned for the year, so they can't move the primary later than Feb. 28th.  They can only move *earlier*, if Gov. Brewer decides to do so.

And Feb. 28th is unlikely for SC, since I think they also hold their primary on a Saturday.

I thought Brewer had the option to move it later?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 12, 2011, 02:47:40 am
The Arizona legislature has already adjourned for the year, so they can't move the primary later than Feb. 28th.  They can only move *earlier*, if Gov. Brewer decides to do so.

And Feb. 28th is unlikely for SC, since I think they also hold their primary on a Saturday.

I thought Brewer had the option to move it later?

No, she can leave it where it is or move it earlier.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 12, 2011, 05:15:40 am
CT has moved to April 24th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/governor-malloys-signature-moves.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: True Federalist on July 12, 2011, 12:49:22 pm
The Arizona legislature has already adjourned for the year, so they can't move the primary later than Feb. 28th.  They can only move *earlier*, if Gov. Brewer decides to do so.

And Feb. 28th is unlikely for SC, since I think they also hold their primary on a Saturday.


While it is traditional by now for the Republicans to hold it on a Saturday, there's no requirement to do so.  The only day of the week it certainly will not be held on is Sunday, as we've got too many polling places located at churches to make that possible.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 13, 2011, 05:02:56 am
It's still very much a question mark as to whether either Missouri or Wisconsin will move from their current February dates.  FHQ speculates that if Missouri stays on Feb. 7th, then FL, GA, and MI might all jump up to late January, and we might end up with something like this:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/follow-up-on-missouri-presidential.html

January
Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Florida
Michigan
Georgia

February
7th Missouri
21st Wisconsin
28th Arizona

And that's not including some of the caucus states that may or may not stick with February.  Minnesota, for example, looks very likely to stick with Feb. 7th.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on July 13, 2011, 09:56:33 am
It's still very much a question mark as to whether either Missouri or Wisconsin will move from their current February dates.  FHQ speculates that if Missouri stays on Feb. 7th, then FL, GA, and MI might all jump up to late January, and we might end up with something like this:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/follow-up-on-missouri-presidential.html

January
Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Florida
Michigan
Georgia

February
7th Missouri
21st Wisconsin
28th Arizona

And that's not including some of the caucus states that may or may not stick with February.  Minnesota, for example, looks very likely to stick with Feb. 7th.


Any one in February even a caucus would push Iowa (and then everything) into January, no?  Pawlenty is hoping Minnesota goes the day after Iowa but we can assume that won't happen.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 14, 2011, 05:03:25 pm
New York has now moved to April 24:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/cuomo-signs-bill-moving-new-york.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.  Also, the California legislature has passed a bill moving the state's primary to June 5th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/california-senate-passes-june.html

but it's not official until Brown signs it.

Feb. 7th is dead as Super Tuesday.  March 6th is the new Super Tuesday.  Though it's an extremely weak Super Tuesday, as there are only 7 states voting that day.  (Though a couple more will probably end up joining.)  But yes, March 6th is the date that'll have the most delegates at stake.  If both California and New Jersey move to June 5th as expected, then June 5th will probably be the date with the second most delegates at stake.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 15, 2011, 04:50:47 am
Any one in February even a caucus would push Iowa (and then everything) into January, no?  Pawlenty is hoping Minnesota goes the day after Iowa but we can assume that won't happen.

That's a good question.  It's actually more complicated than you might think.  NH says they will go at least one week before any other primary/caucus other than Iowa, and Iowa says they will go before NH.

But in reality, there have been numerous occasions in recent decades when Iowa and/or NH allowed some other state to go before them.  That's because Iowa and NH don't care about other states going before them, as long as those other states are mostly ignored by the candidates and the media.  In 2008, for example, Wyoming selected their delegates at county conventions, which were held after Iowa, but before NH.  NH didn't care, because Wyoming was largely ignored by the media.  In 1996, Louisiana held caucuses before both Iowa and NH, but most of the candidates boycotted the state, so as to respect the Iowa/NH tradition.

Which contests might go before Iowa and/or NH in 2012?  My calendar lists early dates for WY county conventions, WV state convention, and AK district conventions.  It's hard to imagine Iowa or NH complaining much about any of them going first, because those contests would all be ignored by the media.  Maine caucuses (because they're held over multiple days, and all the candidates skipped them last time) *might* also be able to get by going before at least NH.

The interesting case is Minnesota.  The Minnesota GOP wants to hold their caucus on Feb. 7th, and they're arguing that they should be exempt from the 50% delegate penalty because the caucus results are technically non-binding on delegate allocation.  But that's also the case in several other caucuses as well, and it doesn't necessarily prevent the candidates from campaigning there.  The other thing though is that MN has both a favorite son and favorite daughter candidate in the race, which makes it less likely that there'll be much campaigning there.

If other states cooperate, and the RNC is really determined not to start primary season before February, and NH gets assurances from all the candidates that won't compete in Minnesota's "rogue" caucuses, then there might even be a chance that this hypothetical calendar will come to pass, with MN and NH on the same day:

Feb. 1: IA
Feb. 7: NH, MN
Feb. 18: NV, SC
Feb. 21: FL
Feb. 28: AZ, MI
Mar. 6: Super Tuesday


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on July 15, 2011, 04:56:41 am
New York has now moved to April 24:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/cuomo-signs-bill-moving-new-york.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.  Also, the California legislature has passed a bill moving the state's primary to June 5th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/california-senate-passes-june.html

but it's not official until Brown signs it.

Feb. 7th is dead as Super Tuesday.  March 6th is the new Super Tuesday.  Though it's an extremely weak Super Tuesday, as there are only 7 states voting that day.  (Though a couple more will probably end up joining.)  But yes, March 6th is the date that'll have the most delegates at stake.  If both California and New Jersey move to June 5th as expected, then June 5th will probably be the date with the second most delegates at stake.

Very bad for Mitt if they move back.

BTW, Mr. Morden, check your PMs and tell me what you think about it.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on July 15, 2011, 09:36:30 am
New York has now moved to April 24:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/cuomo-signs-bill-moving-new-york.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.  Also, the California legislature has passed a bill moving the state's primary to June 5th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/california-senate-passes-june.html

but it's not official until Brown signs it.

Feb. 7th is dead as Super Tuesday.  March 6th is the new Super Tuesday.  Though it's an extremely weak Super Tuesday, as there are only 7 states voting that day.  (Though a couple more will probably end up joining.)  But yes, March 6th is the date that'll have the most delegates at stake.  If both California and New Jersey move to June 5th as expected, then June 5th will probably be the date with the second most delegates at stake.

Very bad for Mitt if they move back.

I'll dissent.  I think it's really good news for him.  I like his chances of winning NY and CA and their being penalized could have cost him the nomination.  And I don't think winning them earlier would have given him a knockout in any case.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 15, 2011, 07:16:00 pm
NH Secretary of State Bill Gardner admits the obvious: New Hampshire will almost certainly hold its primary earlier than the Feb. 14 date that the national parties would like:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/gardner-speaks-new-hampshire-might-not.html

As FHQ blogger Josh Putnam says:

Quote
Again, as I said earlier this week, the most likely scenario will see the four earliest states in January with a smattering of rogue, non-compliant states mostly in February but perhaps slipping into the end of January. Every other state will follow on or after March 6.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 17, 2011, 07:09:54 am
The Idaho GOP will now be holding a caucus on March 6th (Super Tuesday):

link (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hA8hyqeSeh5nCalhgkST-P2XE0AA?docId=c1421dec582040279651ce876faa8482)

I've added that to the calendar.  I've removed the Idaho primary from the calendar, because it'll now be utterly meaningless, with both parties allocating their delegates by caucus.  I'm only listing contests that actually allocate delegates.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: bgwah on July 20, 2011, 02:43:44 am
What source do you have for the Washington GOP's caucus date? (I'm hoping it's okay I don't feel like reading 12 pages of this thread to find out!)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 20, 2011, 03:12:54 am
What source do you have for the Washington GOP's caucus date? (I'm hoping it's okay I don't feel like reading 12 pages of this thread to find out!)

It's just a guess from the Green Papers:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c

which I think is just based off of when they held it last time.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: bgwah on July 20, 2011, 03:34:42 am
What source do you have for the Washington GOP's caucus date? (I'm hoping it's okay I don't feel like reading 12 pages of this thread to find out!)

It's just a guess from the Green Papers:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c

which I think is just based off of when they held it last time.


Oh, I see. Well, I believe they previously based it off of the primary, which the state canceled. So I was curious if the state GOP could schedule it at a different date.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 20, 2011, 04:02:37 am
Oh, I see. Well, I believe they previously based it off of the primary, which the state canceled. So I was curious if the state GOP could schedule it at a different date.

The WA GOP can schedule it for whenever they like.  They haven't really scheduled it for real yet.  I think they'll do so in August or something.  I suppose I could move it to "TBD" on the calendar.  When I started the calendar, everything was assigned a date except IA, NH, and SC.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Gustaf on July 20, 2011, 05:53:22 am
Most of the early primaries look like they could be pretty favourable to Romney. An opponent would probably have to hang on until March (probably by winning Iowa and/or South Carolina) where it seems to be very Southern.

There is an interesting division this time around with no real Super Tuesday.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: A-Bob on July 20, 2011, 06:01:02 pm
Colorado republicans may move up

http://www.coloradopeakpolitics.com/diary/513/make-colorado-count-gop-chair-ryan-call-considering-moving-colorado-gop-caucus-to-february


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Simfan34 on July 20, 2011, 10:20:53 pm
Move it! Move it! Move it NJ! Let me vote in my primary!


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 20, 2011, 10:22:05 pm
Move it! Move it! Move it NJ! Let me vote in my primary!

They already moved it back to June.  :P


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 21, 2011, 05:18:03 am
Move it! Move it! Move it NJ! Let me vote in my primary!

They already moved it back to June.  :P

Not official yet, as Christie hasn't signed the bill.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 22, 2011, 05:34:01 am
The Arizona primary is scheduled for Feb. 28, but state law allows Gov. Jan Brewer to unilaterally set it earlier than that if she wants, and she's allowed to go as early as she likes, as long as she announces the date at least 150 days in advance.  Well, we now have this:

http://www.ahwatukee.com/news/valley_and_state/article_306e0c1b-229e-5d92-b81f-1e14c78c2c82.html

Quote
Gov. Jan Brewer is leaning to moving Arizona's presidential primary to the last Tuesday in January in hopes of getting a jump on most other states.
.
.
.
"It only makes sense that our state be positioned to have its voice heard loud and clear when it comes to the presidential nomination process,'' [Brewer] continued. "Moving Arizona's presidential preference primary election into January would ensure that our citizens are major players in the 2012 campaign.''

If she moves it to Jan. 31, then my guess is that Florida moves to Jan. 24, and you get a domino effect, where the calendar starts out like this:

Jan. 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 24 FL
Jan. 31 AZ

Or something like that.  Georgia and Michigan might go for late January as well.  Or maybe if enough of the remaining February states move later, they'll figure that there's a void in February that they can fill, and just hold their primaries in Feb.

Because Brewer has to announce this 150 days in advance, if she wants to go for Jan. 31, she'll have to announce it by early September.   Most of the potential early primary states seem headed for some kind of decision time in August or September, so we may actually have a good idea of what the primary calendar looks like on October 1.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on July 23, 2011, 10:31:29 am
The Arizona primary is scheduled for Feb. 28, but state law allows Gov. Jan Brewer to unilaterally set it earlier than that if she wants, and she's allowed to go as early as she likes, as long as she announces the date at least 150 days in advance.  Well, we now have this:

http://www.ahwatukee.com/news/valley_and_state/article_306e0c1b-229e-5d92-b81f-1e14c78c2c82.html

Quote
Gov. Jan Brewer is leaning to moving Arizona's presidential primary to the last Tuesday in January in hopes of getting a jump on most other states.
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"It only makes sense that our state be positioned to have its voice heard loud and clear when it comes to the presidential nomination process,'' [Brewer] continued. "Moving Arizona's presidential preference primary election into January would ensure that our citizens are major players in the 2012 campaign.''

If she moves it to Jan. 31, then my guess is that Florida moves to Jan. 24, and you get a domino effect, where the calendar starts out like this:

Jan. 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 24 FL
Jan. 31 AZ

Or something like that.  Georgia and Michigan might go for late January as well.  Or maybe if enough of the remaining February states move later, they'll figure that there's a void in February that they can fill, and just hold their primaries in Feb.

Because Brewer has to announce this 150 days in advance, if she wants to go for Jan. 31, she'll have to announce it by early September.   Most of the potential early primary states seem headed for some kind of decision time in August or September, so we may actually have a good idea of what the primary calendar looks like on October 1.


January 5 Iowa would be awesome!! Everyone knows I am a fan of a long, drawn out primary campaign such as we had in 2008 that lasted 5 1/2 months between the January 3 Iowa Caucuses and the late-June coronation of Barack Obama as the Democratic Nominee.  That was a fun winter and spring for me!!  I hope we can have the same fight and tussle with the Republicans this next year!


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: TJ in Wisco on July 23, 2011, 12:25:30 pm
Move it! Move it! Move it NJ! Let me vote in my primary!

Are you guys in NJ really not allowed to vote in the primary until you turn 18? I think in Ohio we're allowed to vote in the primary as long we will be 18 by the general election.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 23, 2011, 06:03:51 pm
The West Virginia GOP has decided to ditch the 2-step process they did last time, where half the delegates are allocated in a convention, and half in a primary.  Instead, they'll allocate all their delegates in the May primary:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/may-8-primary-opposition-emerges.html

So I've taken the convention date off of the calendar in the OP.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Simfan34 on July 25, 2011, 12:22:00 am
Move it! Move it! Move it NJ! Let me vote in my primary!

Are you guys in NJ really not allowed to vote in the primary until you turn 18? I think in Ohio we're allowed to vote in the primary as long we will be 18 by the general election.

Really?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on July 25, 2011, 06:04:25 pm
Move it! Move it! Move it NJ! Let me vote in my primary!

Are you guys in NJ really not allowed to vote in the primary until you turn 18? I think in Ohio we're allowed to vote in the primary as long we will be 18 by the general election.

Really?

I think that's the same way in Oklahoma.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 26, 2011, 05:50:53 am
Story in the NYT about the primary calendar:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/26/us/politics/26primary.html

And here's a useful rundown of the state of play in the remaining January/February states:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/primer-on-when-remaining-states-might.html

My main conclusions at the moment are:

-Virtually every state will likely have finalized their primary date by October 1.  We may well know the entire calendar by mid-October.

-Many of the remaining February states will move later, but there will probably be about 5-10 (maybe closer to 5 than 10) states that defy the national parties' wishes, and go earlier than March 6.  (This is not counting IA/NH/NV/SC, who are already allowed to do so.)

-The most likely states to do that are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, and Minnesota.  (No surprise, if you've been following this thread.)

-The "prime movers" are probably Arizona and Michigan.  They will probably both show their hand by early September, and there's a wide range of dates they might pick.  What they decide to do will influence Florida, and in turn every other early state.

-The Iowa caucuses (and thus the beginning of primary season) will probably be held some time between January 5 and January 16, depending on what happens with the other states.  At least, that's my guess for the most likely range of dates at the moment.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 30, 2011, 12:23:01 am
California has officially moved to June 5:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/california-presidential-primary-to-june.html

and I've updated the calendar in the OP.  June 5 will now be the date with the second most delegates at stake, after Super Tuesday (March 6).


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on July 30, 2011, 09:25:03 am
Idk if this was posted before, but Governor Brewer is looking towards moving Arizona's primary up to the last Tuesday in January (the 31st).  She has to make the decision at least 150 days before the new date, so she could potentially delay until early September.  If she wants to move the date back, which according to the article is possible, she can stall a little longer.

http://www.rightspeak.net/2011/07/arizona-gov-jan-brewer-likely-to-move.html


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 30, 2011, 09:34:05 am
Idk if this was posted before, but Governor Brewer is looking towards moving Arizona's primary up to the last Tuesday in January (the 31st).  She has to make the decision at least 150 days before the new date, so she could potentially delay until early September.  If she wants to move the date back, which according to the article is possible, she can stall a little longer.

http://www.rightspeak.net/2011/07/arizona-gov-jan-brewer-likely-to-move.html

Yes, I posted on this last week:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128721.msg2964713#msg2964713


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on July 30, 2011, 09:37:08 am
Idk if this was posted before, but Governor Brewer is looking towards moving Arizona's primary up to the last Tuesday in January (the 31st).  She has to make the decision at least 150 days before the new date, so she could potentially delay until early September.  If she wants to move the date back, which according to the article is possible, she can stall a little longer.

http://www.rightspeak.net/2011/07/arizona-gov-jan-brewer-likely-to-move.html

Yes, I posted on this last week:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128721.msg2964713#msg2964713

I feel like that guy from the flash mob AT&T commercial (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bd8ppk0UCx8).


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 30, 2011, 01:48:56 pm
Of the remaining February primary/caucus states....

The state legislatures in DE and NJ have already passed bills to move the primary later, and they'll become official once the states' respective governors sign them (which they presumably will).

MO and WI are more likely than not to move to a later date in the end.

My guess is that the majority of the caucus states will end up going later as well.

FHQ says that there is a rumor that rather than move up to Jan. 31, Brewer might move Arizona to Feb. 14, which would be the state's centennial.

Here is my latest very hypothetical guess as to what the early part of the calendar might end up looking like in the end, assuming that many of those states are cooperative and move later.  I'm supposing that many of the early states specifically grab dates for themselves that they won't have to to share with other states:

Mon, Jan. 16: IA caucus
Tue, Jan. 24: NH primary
Tue, Jan. 31: SC primary
Sat, Feb. 4: NV caucus
Tue, Feb. 7: FL primary, MN caucus, ND caucus
Tue, Feb. 14: AZ primary
Tue, Feb. 21: GA primary
Tue, Feb. 28: MI primary
Tue, March 6: Super Tuesday


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: True Federalist on July 30, 2011, 07:52:39 pm
I will be shocked if the SC GOP primary is not held on a Saturday, no matter when it is held.  That is the traditional day of the week to hold the Republican Presidential Primary.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 30, 2011, 10:26:04 pm
I will be shocked if the SC GOP primary is not held on a Saturday, no matter when it is held.  That is the traditional day of the week to hold the Republican Presidential Primary.

You're probably right.  I was just thinking that perhaps if SC was only three days before FL, the SC GOP would be afraid that a few candidates would put less emphasis on SC, figuring that FL would be a few days later anyway, and that might be a bigger deal.  Whereas if it's separated from FL by a full week, that wouldn't be an issue.  So maybe they'll go a full 10 days before FL like last time, though of course that bumps IA and NH up another week.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 31, 2011, 07:26:51 am
A note on the delegate allocation:

As previously mentioned, states that vote in March or earlier have to award their delegates according to some version of PR (though there are loopholes, allowing them to use a hybrid of statewide PR and CD-wide WTA if they wish).  States that vote in April or later are free to allocate their delegates however they like.

While the April-June states can allocate by statewide WTA if they want to, it looks like very few of them intend to do so.  It looks like the only states left that will use statewide WTA will be New Jersey (assuming Christie signs the bill that moves the primary to June), Connecticut, Montana, Utah, and DC.

However, many states (including the biggest delegate prize of all, California) will use WTA by congressional district.  WTA by CD means that the statewide winner can often win the lion's share of the delegates anyway, because if you're winning the state by like 10 points, then you're going to win the bulk of the congressional districts.  In 2008, for example, McCain beat Romney in California by 42.2%-34.6%, and ended up winning about 90% of the state's delegates, because he won nearly every CD.  So for many of the primaries next year, there's going to be an enormous difference between winning a state by 1% and winning by ~8% or more.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 02, 2011, 10:58:04 pm
Delaware officially moves to April 24:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/08/delaware-governor-quietly-signs.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: True Federalist on August 03, 2011, 10:53:20 am
Why is Christie sitting on the NJ bill?  Alternatively, when is the NJ Assembly going to meet next?  It's been almost long enough that all that is needed is for the lower house to meet for the NJ bill to become law without Christie's signature.  (when they first meet on or after August 13)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on August 03, 2011, 11:00:33 am
Christie's sitting on it? It's dead. No piece of paper could withstand that pressure.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Phony Moderate on August 04, 2011, 05:21:14 pm
It could actually end up having a similar feel to it as the 1992 Democratic Primaries.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 05, 2011, 08:00:08 am
The RNC has decided to defer on the question of whether to impose further punishment on "rogue states" like Arizona and Florida for scheduling their primaries earlier than March 6th:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/60682.html#ixzz1U6XvlJhV

The current punishment is that the states lose 50% of their delegates.  However, the RNC can impose further punishment by giving the remaining delegates bad hotels and inferior seating in the convention hall.  But they're not going to make a decision on any further punishments until January, by which time the calendar will be set anyway.

The RNC has basically resigned itself to the fact that some states are going to defy the calendar rules and go early.  At this point, they're probably going to work behind the scenes to simply contain the damage, and least keep states like AZ, FL, and MI in February, so that IA, NH, NV, and SC can vote in January, rather than spill over into Christmas.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 05, 2011, 09:33:22 am
"The Death of Super Tuesday":

http://news.yahoo.com/mitt-romney-sarah-palin-012-presidential-race-death-024013923.html


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: whaeffner1 on August 12, 2011, 09:53:36 pm
Here's my question to the RNC: Why can't Florida be the first primary in the country?  First, it is an important swing state, being the biggest one out there.  Second, it has a large Hispanic population, which is important because whoever the nominee is will need to have more of their support than McCain did in 2008.  Third, it is a big state, so it will test who has better fundraising power, an important trait for the general election.  And fourth, Iowa and New Hampshire have dominated the process for so long that their voters almost feel entitled.  Let's shake it up a bit.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 12, 2011, 10:05:31 pm
Here's my question to the RNC: Why can't Florida be the first primary in the country?  First, it is an important swing state, being the biggest one out there.  Second, it has a large Hispanic population, which is important because whoever the nominee is will need to have more of their support than McCain did in 2008.  Third, it is a big state, so it will test who has better fundraising power, an important trait for the general election.  And fourth, Iowa and New Hampshire have dominated the process for so long that their voters almost feel entitled.  Let's shake it up a bit.

Welcome to the forum.

I won't give a full answer to your question here, but I would just point out that, as we're seeing yet again this time around, the RNC's current penalties are in no way sufficient to prevent states from going earlier if they want to.  So, for example, even if Florida went as early as possible under state law (which I believe would be the first Tuesday of January), then Iowa and NH would simply move up to December, because they're determined to go first.  It wouldn't matter if the RNC then imposed a 50% delegate penalty on IA and NH, because they don't care about delegate penalties.

The only way to stop IA and NH from going first is to either: 1) Force them to move later via federal legislation, 2) Have some other state change their laws or party rules, to allow them to go arbitrarily early, and then have that state match IA and NH in brinkmanship, or 3) Convince the candidates to ignore IA and NH (which might be doable with a 100% delegate penalty.....but possibly not even then).

Of course, the above is probably all moot, since neither of the two national parties seem that interested in removing IA and NH from the front of the line, and very few other states seem that interested in usurping them.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: True Federalist on August 13, 2011, 10:30:55 pm
Here's my question to the RNC: Why can't Florida be the first primary in the country?  First, it is an important swing state, being the biggest one out there.  Second, it has a large Hispanic population, which is important because whoever the nominee is will need to have more of their support than McCain did in 2008.  Third, it is a big state, so it will test who has better fundraising power, an important trait for the general election.  And fourth, Iowa and New Hampshire have dominated the process for so long that their voters almost feel entitled.  Let's shake it up a bit.

Having small states go first does enable a wider variety of candidates to test the waters.  If they can attract attention there, they can leverage that into fundraising on a broader level.

However, if the RNC (or the DNC) wants to take back control of their nomination schedule they'll have to start organizing them themselves.  So long as the States are footing the bill, they'll be the ones deciding the schedule.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 13, 2011, 11:27:12 pm
There'd been some talk for a while about the Michigan GOP abandoning the primary in favor of a caucus.  Well, that talk is no more, as the state party voted decisively in favor of sticking with the primary:

http://detnews.com/article/20110813/POLITICS02/108130391/Michigan-GOP-to-hold-primary-for-delegates-in-presidential-nominee-vote

Under current state law, the primary is scheduled for Feb. 28, which puts it one week before Super Tuesday, but not as early as last time.  The state legislature still might change the date, but the most likely scenario is that they simply stick with Feb. 28.  If Michigan sticks with Feb. 28, then they'll be going before Super Tuesday, but after early states like IA, NH, NV, SC, and probably FL, AZ, MN, and a couple of others as well.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 25, 2011, 05:29:26 am
Kansas caucus to March 10th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/08/kansas-gop-chooses-march-10-for.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 25, 2011, 06:00:02 am
In Michigan, a bill has been introduced in the state senate that would set up a panel to determine the state's primary date, though the panel would only be allowed to choose dates between Feb. 28 and March 6:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/08/legislation-to-create-presidential.html

The panel would have to decide by Oct. 1, which isn't that far away, given that this legislation hasn't even been voted on yet.

Meanwhile, the clock ticks down towards Sept. 2nd.  If Jan Brewer wants to move Arizona's primary date to Jan. 31 as her spokesman suggested she might, she will have to announce it by next week Friday (Sept. 2).  If she does move it to Jan. 31, then it could easily lead to a domino effect that has Iowa voting in the first week of January.  The fate of the 2012 primary calendar rests in this woman's hands:

(http://assets.nydailynews.com/img/2010/06/02/alg_gov_jan-brewer.jpg)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 28, 2011, 12:05:01 am
It's been almost long enough that all that is needed is for the lower house to meet for the NJ bill to become law without Christie's signature.  (when they first meet on or after August 13)

It's the lower house that has to meet for it to become law without his signature?  Because I believe the state senate met for one day last week, but I don't think the assembly has met recently.

Anyway, here is a mini-update on the confirmed or potential pre-Super Tuesday states:

Arizona

Primary is tentatively scheduled for Feb. 28, but Gov. Brewer can unilaterally move it to an earlier date, as long as she gives at least 150 days notice.  Her spokesman said that she's leaning towards moving it up to Jan. 31.  But she would have to announce that by Sept. 2 (this coming Friday).  If she doesn't announce anything this week, then the rumor is that she would instead move it up to Feb. 14 (the 100th anniversary of Arizona statehood).

Colorado

Caucus is scheduled for March 6, but the CO GOP has said that they might move it up to Feb. 7.  But chances are better than 50/50 that they'll just stick with March 6 (Super Tuesday).

Florida

10 person committee to set the primary date still hasn't been named.  They will have to decide on a date by Oct. 1.  Florida officials have said in the past that they want to go fifth (before every other state except IA/NH/NV/SC), but they may or may not stick to that.  If Arizona goes all the way up to Jan. 31, then I don't think it's a certainty that Florida will go earlier.

Georgia

Georgia's Republican Secretary of State can set the date himself, and every indication is that he wants to go before Super Tuesday.  How much earlier than Super Tuesday is uncertain.  But he probably won't push things any earlier than Arizona and Florida.

Michigan

Currently schedule for Feb. 28.  Legislature will consider legislation to set up a committee that can set the date between Feb. 28 and March 6.  They will have to act fast to get this passed though.

Minnesota

Caucus is scheduled for Feb. 7.  Though my guess is that the candidates will largely ignore it, as there's a favorite daughter candidate (Bachmann), and the caucus results are technically non-binding on delegates.  I doubt that NV, SC, or FL would care if Minnesota goes before them, under such circumstances.

Missouri

Legislature passed a bill to move the primary to March 6, but Nixon vetoed it because of unrelated provisions that he objected to.  The legislature will, some time in the September special session, probably either override his veto or pass a clean bill.  So Missouri will probably move to March 6, but it's not guaranteed.

New Jersey

The legislature has passed a bill to move the primary to June, but Christie has neither signed it nor vetoed it yet.  Once the state assembly meets, it'll become law anyway, unless Christie vetoes it first.

Wisconsin

Bill to move the primary to April has passed one house of the legislature, and will probably pass the other house and be signed by Walker in September.  Not a sure thing though.

Wyoming

The Wyoming GOP met earlier today, and the date of the county conventions was on the agenda.  It was tentatively on the calendar for Jan. 7, but would probably be moved later.  Haven't heard anything about what was decided.

Alaska, Maine, North Dakota, and Washington

Will probably all announce new caucus / convention dates before Oct. 1.  Alaska and Washington are likely to move to March or later.  Maine and North Dakota could go either way.

Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina

Nevada already announced Feb. 18 for their caucus date, but will probably end up moving earlier, to get in front of other states.  IA, NH, and SC will wait until every other state announces, and then set their own dates, to make sure they can go first.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 30, 2011, 05:21:31 am
Wyoming county conventions move to March 6-10:

http://trib.com/news/opinion/blogs/capitol/article_9729132e-d28f-11e0-b7b9-001cc4c002e0.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2011, 07:12:58 am
Arizona update:

Ms. Brewer’s spokesman told The Boston Globe on Monday that the governor “continues to lean toward Jan. 31.”

But he also said that there were other options, too. The governor might decide not to risk the ire of the Republican party schedulers and instead hold a debate in the state in January. That way, the state could feel like it has influence on the course of the nomination primary.

“A debate would be one way to really shine the light on Arizona issues, such as illegal immigration and border issues,” Matthew Benson, Ms. Brewer’s spokesman, told The Globe.

Will that be enough for Ms. Brewer and the other Arizona boosters? We should know by Saturday.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/31/will-arizona-scramble-the-republican-primary-calendar


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Northam for Governor '17 on August 31, 2011, 11:18:18 am
Looking at the tentative schedule, things look pretty easy for Perry.  Most of the early states are strong Perry states, and I don't see much room for Romney to regain momentum after New Hampshire.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 02, 2011, 05:46:40 am
I think I previously stated that Jan Brewer has until Friday to announce whether she wants to move the primary to as early as Jan. 31.  It's actually Saturday.  Still, she'll probably say something about it on Friday.  Here's her Twitter feed if you must know:

https://twitter.com/#!/GovBrewer


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 02, 2011, 05:58:44 pm
Brewer speaks: Arizona primary will *not* be held on Jan. 31:

link (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ARIZONA_PRIMARY?SITE=TNMEM&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT)

Quote
Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer has decided against moving up the state's presidential primary in 2012 by nearly a month to Jan. 31.

Brewer tells The Associated Press on Friday that she's leaving open her options of still moving the Feb. 28 primary date to an earlier date. She says the state has been tentatively allotted a Republican presidential candidates' debate by the Republican National Committee.

So, to clarify, the primary is still tentatively scheduled for Feb. 28, and Brewer can still move the primary to earlier in February.  But she says she's not moving it into January (and this weekend would have been her last chance to do so).

So, the waiting game continues.  If she wants to keep the primary on a Tuesday, then she has until *next* week Saturday to decide whether she wants to move the primary to Feb. 7, and the Saturday after that to decide if it'll be Feb. 14, etc.  Because whatever the primary date is, she has to announce it at least 150 days in advance.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 02, 2011, 06:06:51 pm
The South Carolina GOP chairman says he's been talking to the Florida GOP, and they both intend to hold their primaries earlier than Arizona, no matter what:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/09/in-2012-the-calendar-is-king-the-note-2/


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 02, 2011, 06:07:00 pm
At least the prospect of everyone celebrating Christmas at Iowa is now extremely remote.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on September 02, 2011, 11:12:23 pm
At least the prospect of everyone celebrating Christmas at Iowa is now extremely remote.


Dang! I was hoping for an early January caucus!! I knew it wasn't going to happen.  I love the primary season and want to have the ENTIRE year full of elections!!!


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 03, 2011, 12:47:27 am
At least the prospect of everyone celebrating Christmas at Iowa is now extremely remote.


Dang! I was hoping for an early January caucus!! I knew it wasn't going to happen.  I love the primary season and want to have the ENTIRE year full of elections!!!

It's still absolutely possible.  If Arizona moves to Feb. 7th, or if Missouri sticks with Feb. 7th because they can't get the new primary bill through the legislature or something, then you could have:

Jan. 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 31 FL
Feb. other states, like AZ, GA, MI, MN, etc.
Mar. 6 Super Tuesday

Depends on any number of things, like how much space SC thinks it needs before Florida, whether Georgia tries to go really early or not, etc.

What I think is off the table though is Iowa voting in December.  Hard to see how that's going to happen now.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on September 03, 2011, 09:08:11 am
At least the prospect of everyone celebrating Christmas at Iowa is now extremely remote.


Dang! I was hoping for an early January caucus!! I knew it wasn't going to happen.  I love the primary season and want to have the ENTIRE year full of elections!!!

It's still absolutely possible.  If Arizona moves to Feb. 7th, or if Missouri sticks with Feb. 7th because they can't get the new primary bill through the legislature or something, then you could have:

Jan. 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 31 FL
Feb. other states, like AZ, GA, MI, MN, etc.
Mar. 6 Super Tuesday

Depends on any number of things, like how much space SC thinks it needs before Florida, whether Georgia tries to go really early or not, etc.

What I think is off the table though is Iowa voting in December.  Hard to see how that's going to happen now.


What if Brewer moves Arizona to January 31 and then both Florida and Georgia determine they want to go before Arizona?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on September 03, 2011, 09:13:46 am
At least the prospect of everyone celebrating Christmas at Iowa is now extremely remote.


Dang! I was hoping for an early January caucus!! I knew it wasn't going to happen.  I love the primary season and want to have the ENTIRE year full of elections!!!

It's still absolutely possible.  If Arizona moves to Feb. 7th, or if Missouri sticks with Feb. 7th because they can't get the new primary bill through the legislature or something, then you could have:

Jan. 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 31 FL
Feb. other states, like AZ, GA, MI, MN, etc.
Mar. 6 Super Tuesday

Depends on any number of things, like how much space SC thinks it needs before Florida, whether Georgia tries to go really early or not, etc.

What I think is off the table though is Iowa voting in December.  Hard to see how that's going to happen now.


What if Brewer moves Arizona to January 31 and then both Florida and Georgia determine they want to go before Arizona?

That's highly unlikely to happen as Gov. Brewer nixed the idea of January 31. Now, she still could go earlier in February if she wants.  It remains to be seen what the Madame Governor will do.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Franzl on September 03, 2011, 09:21:45 am
Make them all as late as possible...


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on September 03, 2011, 09:40:05 am
Make them all as late as possible...

That's not as fun for us political junkies, plus that would eliminate 10 1/4 straight months of elections!!


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Franzl on September 03, 2011, 10:02:53 am
Make them all as late as possible...

That's not as fun for us political junkies, plus that would eliminate 10 1/4 straight months of elections!!

Precisely. Less mindless campaigning, less TV commercials...and maybe, just maybe some productive work in the absence of the never ending election season.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: A-Bob on September 03, 2011, 03:54:43 pm
If Arizona moves up and Missouri sticks, the earlier will all move up back to Jan and then you can be sure Colorado will move up to early Feb as well. Especially since the GOP Chair used to be a Romney staffer (and is Mormon) and now Perry is a potential threat, obviously they are extremely arrogant thinking Romney will carry the caucus again and putting a strong Romney showing up in the first few states will of course in theory help the campaign immensely. Especially since we do have some delegates, even if we are cut in half.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 03, 2011, 04:22:40 pm
At least the prospect of everyone celebrating Christmas at Iowa is now extremely remote.


Dang! I was hoping for an early January caucus!! I knew it wasn't going to happen.  I love the primary season and want to have the ENTIRE year full of elections!!!

It's still absolutely possible.  If Arizona moves to Feb. 7th, or if Missouri sticks with Feb. 7th because they can't get the new primary bill through the legislature or something, then you could have:

Jan. 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 31 FL
Feb. other states, like AZ, GA, MI, MN, etc.
Mar. 6 Super Tuesday

Depends on any number of things, like how much space SC thinks it needs before Florida, whether Georgia tries to go really early or not, etc.

What I think is off the table though is Iowa voting in December.  Hard to see how that's going to happen now.


What if Brewer moves Arizona to January 31 and then both Florida and Georgia determine they want to go before Arizona?

Brewer can no longer move up to Jan. 31.  The deadline for doing that was today, and she said she's not doing it.

And Georgia can't go any earlier than Jan. 31.  Jan. 31 is the earliest their primary law allows them to go.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on September 03, 2011, 07:30:31 pm
Ok, so something like this might this be the earliest possible calendar?

Dec. 29 IA
Jan. 3 NH
Jan. 14 SC
Jan. 21 NV
Jan. 24 FL
Jan. 31 GA
Feb. 7 AZ, MN, MO
Feb. 28 MI
Mar. 6 Super Tuesday


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 03, 2011, 08:26:35 pm
Ok, so something like this might this be the earliest possible calendar?

Dec. 29 IA
Jan. 3 NH
Jan. 14 SC
Jan. 21 NV
Jan. 24 FL
Jan. 31 GA
Feb. 7 AZ, MN, MO
Feb. 28 MI
Mar. 6 Super Tuesday

That is possible in theory, but my sense is that SC and FL are willing to play ball in keeping Iowa out of December.  Which means that if Georgia actually goes all the way up to Jan. 31 (which it probably won't, but suppose it does), then we would either get this:

Jan. 3, 4, or 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 24 FL
Jan. 31 GA

or this:

Jan. 3, 4, or 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 28 FL
Jan. 31 GA

depending on whether Florida is cool with a Saturday primary, and whether they want more breathing room before or after their primary.

It's not in South Carolina's interest to go so early that Iowa votes in December.  If Iowa votes in December, then there'll be even more calls to radically reform the process for next time, which could lead to South Carolina losing its privileged position near the start of the calendar in 2016.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on September 05, 2011, 05:08:08 pm
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/arizona-presidential-primary-calendar.html

Statutory requirements in Florida require the states to pick a primary date by October 1st; similarly, Arizona's 150 day requirement means that Brewer would also have to make a decision by October 1st. In Georgia, however, Secretary of State Brian Kemp doesn't have to decide on a primary date until December 1st (with the requirement that the primary must be at least 60 days after he announces it). Also note that the new law, unusually for Georgia, has no requirement that the election take place on a Tuesday.

I don't think he'll wait until December to decide, of course, and I doubt he'll use his authority to cut ahead of the first four states. I think its entirely possible though that he'll wait until after October 1st so he can make sure Georgia doesn't go after Florida. My best guess is that he'll end up picking a date somewhere between the day that Florida votes and the Monday/Tuesday after South Carolina votes (SC always has their primaries on a Saturday, right?).


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on September 05, 2011, 08:11:16 pm
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/arizona-presidential-primary-calendar.html

Statutory requirements in Florida require the states to pick a primary date by October 1st; similarly, Arizona's 150 day requirement means that Brewer would also have to make a decision by October 1st. In Georgia, however, Secretary of State Brian Kemp doesn't have to decide on a primary date until December 1st (with the requirement that the primary must be at least 60 days after he announces it). Also note that the new law, unusually for Georgia, has no requirement that the election take place on a Tuesday.

I don't think he'll wait until December to decide, of course, and I doubt he'll use his authority to cut ahead of the first four states. I think its entirely possible though that he'll wait until after October 1st so he can make sure Georgia doesn't go after Florida. My best guess is that he'll end up picking a date somewhere between the day that Florida votes and the Monday/Tuesday after South Carolina votes (SC always has their primaries on a Saturday, right?).
I can only see Georgia trying to cut ahead of the others if a) Kemp is a Tea Partier and b) Perry implodes and Cain becomes the Tea Party candidate.  Not impossible, but not likely, IMO.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 07, 2011, 06:00:23 am
Indeed, I think I had previously stated that Georgia can't go earlier than Jan. 31.  But it looks like I misunderstood the primary law there.  Georgia can in fact go as early as Jan. 1, as long as the SoS announces the date at least 60 days in advance of the primary:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/red-flags-raised-some-comments-on.html

So yes, Georgia has all the cards over Florida.  They can match Florida's primary date and go earlier if desired.  Whether SoS Brian Kemp actually wants to do that or not is unclear.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 13, 2011, 06:12:55 am
Jan Brewer has announced that she will *not* move up Arizona's primary, thereby locking in the primary date for February 28:

http://www.azgovernor.gov/dms/upload/PR_091211_PPEDate.pdf

Attention now shifts to Florida and Georgia (which will go first, and when will they vote?), and the question of which of the other pre-Feb. 28 primary/caucus states will end up moving.  It's still possible that the only states that will stick with pre-Feb. 28th primary/caucus dates will be IA, NH, NV, SC, MN, FL, and GA, but we'll have to wait and see.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 14, 2011, 05:13:52 am
Both houses of the Wisconsin legislature have now passed the bill that would move the primary to April:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/wisconsin-assembly-concurs-with-senate.html

The bill now goes to Gov. Walker, and he's expected to sign it.

In Missouri, as you may recall, the legislature passed legislation to move the primary to March, but it included other provisions that Gov. Nixon didn't like, so he vetoed it, and asked the legislature to send him a clean bill.  Now the legislature is in special session, and the House has passed a new bill to move the primary to March.  The bill is making its way through the Senate:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/march-presidential-primary-bill-from.html

The only problem is that this still isn't a clean bill.  The bill also increases the filing fee for presidential candidates.  I would presume that that's a minor enough issue that Nixon will sign the bill anyway, but it's not certain.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 15, 2011, 06:10:52 am
In Missouri, things are looking a bit more uncertain re: the possibility of moving the primary later.

As I said yesterday, Nixon vetoed the earlier bill that would have moved the primary to March.  He said wanted a clean bill that doesn't include extraneous items.  The House has now passed a bill that would move the primary to March (but also increases the filing fee for candidates).  The Senate is now taking up the bill, but there's some resistance to passing it:

http://ozarksfirst.com/fulltext?nxd_id=522007

Quote
"Why do we want to take out citizens out of the game," said Sen. Tim Green, D-St. Louis, who was among the most vocal opponents of the bill. "We all can agree once March comes, pretty much you're down to one or two candidates."

One Republican state senator now says that he's going to offer an amendment that would abolish the primary altogether and replace it with a caucus (also to be held on Feb. 7th, though it's not clear that the state has the constitutional authority to tell the parties when to hold caucuses, should they eliminate the primary).  This won't be voted on until at least Wednesday of next week.

It's not clear that this would pass, or if they'll come up with a version that the House agrees to, or that Nixon will agree to sign.  If they can't pass anything, then the status quo will remain, which is the Missouri primary being held on Feb. 7th.

It's also quite possible now that this uncertainty will drag on beyond Oct. 1, when Florida has to announce its primary date.  Florida says they want to go before every state except IA/NH/NV/SC.  As has already been mentioned here, that may be a problem, since they won't necessarily know when Georgia's primary will be held when they have to make a decision.  What if they also don't know when Missouri will vote either?  Will Florida then go pre-Feb. 7th just in case?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 16, 2011, 09:22:55 pm
Maine caucuses will be held from Feb. 4 to Feb. 11:

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2011/09/16/20110916republican-presidential-primaries-rogue-states-threaten-calendar-politico.html

I've updated the calendar in the OP.

In other news, NH SoS Bill Gardner says that NH will not accept going less than 7 days before Nevada, meaning that the original DNC calendar was never going to happen anyway:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/nhs-gardner-indicates-granite-state.html

The nine members of the commission in Florida to pick the primary date have been named.  There are six Republicans and three Dems.  They will meet once on Sept. 23, and then again on Sept. 30 (and presumably pick a date at the latter meeting, since they have to decide by Oct. 1):

http://www.newsserviceflorida.com/cgi/as_web.exe?rev2011+D+7698156

And finally, it looks like Michigan has dropped the idea of moving the primary later than Feb. 28.  They'll keep it on Feb. 28, but the legislature is working on a bill that would change the primary from open to closed:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/michigan-senate-passes-february-28.html

So now we basically know for sure that Arizona and Michigan will stick with Feb. 28, and we more or less know the contours of the calendar after Feb. 28.  It's the calendar *before* Feb. 28 that remains a big mess.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 17, 2011, 10:58:19 am
And finally, it looks like Michigan has dropped the idea of moving the primary later than Feb. 28.  They'll keep it on Feb. 28, but the legislature is working on a bill that would change the primary from open to closed:

Bad news for Romney I guess, because Independents would certainly "fatten up" Romney's margin over Perry in MI. But if it's only Republicans, it's more uncertain, especially after SC.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Marston on September 17, 2011, 12:44:38 pm
And finally, it looks like Michigan has dropped the idea of moving the primary later than Feb. 28.  They'll keep it on Feb. 28, but the legislature is working on a bill that would change the primary from open to closed:

Bad news for Romney I guess, because Independents would certainly "fatten up" Romney's margin over Perry in MI. But if it's only Republicans, it's more uncertain, especially after SC.

Eh, you just have to verbally declare yourself a Republican, if I remember correctly. I, as a registered Democrat, can vote in the closed primary by just lying about my affiliation to the poll workers. They won't know the difference.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 21, 2011, 06:14:30 am
Quick update on Missouri: There are still two different options that would involve moving the primary to March, following Nixon's veto of the earlier legislation.  One is for the legislature to override his veto.  The other is for them to pass a new bill with different provisions so that Nixon will sign it.  It looks like this Friday is the deadline for them to override the veto, so they'd have to move quickly:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/additional-notes-on-missouri.html

If they don't do that, then they'll have to pass a new bill in the special session, though as previously mentioned, it's not clear whether that'll happen or not.  It's also unclear how long the special session will last.  Conceivably, they could wrap things up this week, though going into next week is certainly possible.  It's likely that we'll have an answer on what's happening with Missouri by the end of next week, when Florida has to decide on its primary date.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 22, 2011, 05:49:10 am
The 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Calendar may be largely decided in Jefferson City, Missouri this Friday.

The state legislature will reconvene, to take up the presidential primary bill again, and perhaps strike some kind of last minute deal:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/missouri-senate-adjourns-presidential.html

There's a good chance that that will be the last day of the legislature's special session (though it might continue into next week), so they'll probably stay well into the night to get everything done.  In all likelihood, we'll soon know whether Missouri is sticking with a Feb. 7 primary or moving to March 6 (or, the least likely option.....cancel the primary altogether, and have it replaced with caucuses).

If the primary stays on Feb. 7th, then Florida will almost certainly vote on Jan. 31, which means Iowa will happen in early January.

Whereas if Missouri moves to March, then there's at least a chance (assuming other states move later, as expected) that Florida (and maybe Georgia) hold their primaries in mid-February, which means that we might get the Iowa caucuses as late as late January.

We should find out soon.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: 5280 on September 22, 2011, 10:57:19 pm
Looks like the Republican caucus for Colorado will be push forward to February 2012 instead of March if approved.
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_18956141 (http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_18956141)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 23, 2011, 06:12:23 am
Looks like the Republican caucus for Colorado will be push forward to February 2012 instead of March if approved.
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_18956141 (http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_18956141)

Indeed.  They will vote on that this Saturday.

Also, Ohio has actually moved back up to March 6 (Super Tuesday):

http://www.ballot-access.org/2011/09/22/ohio-2012-primary-to-be-in-march-not-may/

Ohio will be the second biggest delegate prize on Super Tuesday (Texas being first).  Of course, assuming that Perry wins his home state easily, Ohio will be the biggest Super Tuesday prize that will actually be contested.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 23, 2011, 08:43:57 am
Mr. Morden, how likely is it that we'll have a somewhat final calendar by next Saturday ?

Are there any states that will decide on their date after next Saturday ?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 23, 2011, 08:54:19 am
Mr. Morden, how likely is it that we'll have a somewhat final calendar by next Saturday ?

Are there any states that will decide on their date after next Saturday ?

IA, NH, NV, SC, and GA will probably not have finalized things by Oct. 1, but every other state basically will have.  The only other states that might still be in limbo are states like NJ and WI, where the legislature has passed a bill, but the governor has neither signed nor vetoed it yet.

I expect that GA will be announced some time shortly after Oct. 1, and the other four states shortly after that.  The only thing might gum up the works is if NJ continues to remain in limbo like this.  Why won't Christie just sign the freaking bill?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 23, 2011, 08:57:18 am
Mr. Morden, how likely is it that we'll have a somewhat final calendar by next Saturday ?

Are there any states that will decide on their date after next Saturday ?

IA, NH, NV, SC, and GA will probably not have finalized things by Oct. 1, but every other state basically will have.  The only other states that might still be in limbo are states like NJ and WI, where the legislature has passed a bill, but the governor has neither signed nor vetoed it yet.

I expect that GA will be announced some time shortly after Oct. 1, and the other four states shortly after that.  The only thing might gum up the works is if NJ continues to remain in limbo like this.  Why won't Christie just sign the freaking bill?

Will GA, NJ and WI get punished by the RNC if they decide their date after Oct. 1 ?

And what are the states that will already get punished in some way by the RNC ?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 23, 2011, 09:48:56 pm
Mr. Morden, how likely is it that we'll have a somewhat final calendar by next Saturday ?

Are there any states that will decide on their date after next Saturday ?

IA, NH, NV, SC, and GA will probably not have finalized things by Oct. 1, but every other state basically will have.  The only other states that might still be in limbo are states like NJ and WI, where the legislature has passed a bill, but the governor has neither signed nor vetoed it yet.

I expect that GA will be announced some time shortly after Oct. 1, and the other four states shortly after that.  The only thing might gum up the works is if NJ continues to remain in limbo like this.  Why won't Christie just sign the freaking bill?

Will GA, NJ and WI get punished by the RNC if they decide their date after Oct. 1 ?

There's apparently no actual punishment for failing to meet the Oct. 1 deadline.  The rules say that you have to let the RNC know when you're going to hold your primary or caucus by Oct. 1, but it doesn't say what happens if you don't.  Last time around, there were a few states that missed the deadline, and nothing happened to them.  Still, like I said, other than these few exceptions, I expect nearly every state to meet the Oct. 1 deadline.  Florida, for example, by its own state law has to determine its primary date by Oct. 1.

Quote
And what are the states that will already get punished in some way by the RNC ?

Any state other than IA/NH/NV/SC that holds a primary before March 6 loses half its delegates.  And IA/NH/NV/SC are not allowed to go earlier than Feb. 1, or they lose half their delegates.

Note that I said "primary".  If a state holds caucuses, then they only lose half their delegates for going too early if the caucus results are binding on delegate allocation.  But many caucus states aren't binding on delegate allocation, so they pay absolutely no penalty for going early.  With Iowa, for example, the results on caucus day do not technically bind the results of delegate allocation for the state, so they can go as early as they want without paying a penalty.  Same goes for Maine, Minnesota, and Colorado, which is why the first two (and possibly the third) will end up going in early February.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 23, 2011, 09:57:12 pm
And now it looks like we may be in limbo on Missouri for some time, potentially until early November:

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2011/09/23/general-mo-xgr-business-incentives_8698207.html

In brief, the primary is still, as of today, scheduled for Feb. 7.  The state House has passed a bill that would move the primary to March.  The state Senate has not yet acted on it, and it's not clear if it would pass there as is.  The legislature has adjourned for today, and will technically remain in special session for the foreseeable future, but only with one or two senators meeting each day to keep the session going.  In the background, you have legislators negotiating with Gov. Nixon on an overhaul of the state's tax incentives for businesses.  If they ever come to a breakthrough on that, then they'll call everyone in again to resume the session.  But this could drag on until early November, when the special session legally has to come to an end.

So, other states are going to have to start deciding what to do without the benefit of knowing how things will end in Missouri.  Florida, for example, has to decide on a date by Oct. 1, and so they're going to have to decide whether going fifth is important enough for them to schedule their primary for something like Jan. 31 or Feb. 4, thus pushing Iowa up to early January.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: A-Bob on September 24, 2011, 11:45:46 am
Colorado GOP is voting now to move up to Feb 7 with full support from elected officials and the party leadership :D

And there's an extremely high chance there won't be a penalty since we elect the delegates months later at the convention.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: A-Bob on September 24, 2011, 01:47:56 pm
WOO!!! It's official. Colorado moves up to Feb 7, the day after Iowa (for now) :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D 


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: RI on September 24, 2011, 01:48:18 pm
Nice. :)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 24, 2011, 04:34:35 pm
Colorado moves to Feb. 7:

http://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Colorado-GOP-moves-up-2012-caucuses-to-Feb-7-2186720.php

Calendar in the OP has been updated.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on September 24, 2011, 04:59:48 pm
WOO!!! It's official. Colorado moves up to Feb 7, the day after Iowa (for now) :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D 

So this is what a Rocky Mountain High looks like? :P


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: 5280 on September 24, 2011, 08:28:15 pm
WOO!!! It's official. Colorado moves up to Feb 7, the day after Iowa (for now) :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D 
That's good news!


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 25, 2011, 01:41:33 am
More good news for Romney.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on September 25, 2011, 02:10:45 am
More good news for Romney.

More so now then a week ago.


Remember, it is still a caucus and one which Romney risks being overrun by the TP if he is getting trounced by a single person amongst them by like 20 points. It seems less likely that that will occur now with Perry declining. But it is still a ways away and even with all Romney's advantages in the state, he can easily have it taken away  by aggressive TP turnout on caucus day.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 25, 2011, 03:00:25 am
Unconfirmed sources say Washington state caucus will be March 3 and Alaska will be some time in March.  I'll update the calendar in the OP if I get something more solid on that.

In any case, we now know that *at least* CO and MN caucuses will be on Feb. 7.  Possibly also MO primary and maybe ND caucus.  Given that, I would assume that at least IA, NH, NV, and SC will end up voting before Feb. 7.  My *guess* would be that Florida probably does the same, but I'm not sure.  The signals out of Florida are less clear.

If we assume that WA on March 3 is correct and that Florida does indeed go earlier than Feb. 7 and that NJ and WI move later as expected, then the final pre-Super Tuesday calendar might look something like this:

Jan. 10: IA caucus
Jan. 17: NH primary
Jan. 28: NV caucus, SC primary
Jan. 31 or Feb. 4: FL primary
Feb. 4 - 11: ME caucus
Feb. 7: CO, MN caucuses, (MO primary?), (ND caucus?)
Feb. 14 or Feb. 21: GA primary?
Feb. 28: AZ, MI primaries
Mar. 3: WA caucus
Mar. 7: Super Tuesday

OTOH, if Florida is less determined to go 5th than we've thought, it could be:

Jan. 16: IA caucus
Jan. 24: NH primary
Feb. 4: NV caucus, SC primary
Feb. 4 - 11: ME caucus
Feb. 7: CO, MN caucuses, (MO primary?), (ND caucus?)
Feb. 14: FL primary?
Feb. 21: GA primary?
Feb. 28: AZ, MI primaries
Mar. 3: WA caucus
Mar. 7: Super Tuesday

Something close to one of those two scenarios is probably what will happen......more likely the first scenario if I had to guess.  And it's also possible that Nevada and South Carolina decide they don't want to go on the same day, in which case Iowa gets bumped up to something like Jan. 3, 4, or 5.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on September 25, 2011, 10:15:41 am
I doubt South Carolina and Nevada will go on the same down.  I also have an inkling that Georgia may try to cut ahead of Florida and figuratively give them the finger.  Georgia and Florida have gone back and forth over things like usage of the Chattahoochee River; I also think Florida's stubborn determination to be a special snowflake is annoying certain people within Georgia.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: A-Bob on September 25, 2011, 05:15:28 pm
More good news for Romney.

Remember that the caucus was what propelled Maes to win the nomination and destroyed Norton's hopes for grass-roots support.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 26, 2011, 06:13:28 am
So apparently a couple of months ago, the Nevada GOP voted to tether their caucus date to the NH primary date:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64375_Page2.html

Quote
The party’s executive board voted in July to tether Nevada’s date to New Hampshire. Now, rather than stating that the caucus will definitely be held on Feb. 18, party rules state that it will be held “the Saturday after New Hampshire,” according to Nevada Republican officials.

“If New Hampshire moves, we move with them,” Nevada GOP Chairwoman Amy Tarkanian told POLITICO. With Arizona moving up the calendar, “This will ensure our first-in-the-West status,” Tarkanian said.

OK, the only problem here is that NH SoS Bill Gardner says that he will definitely schedule NH at least 7 days before any other contest (save Iowa), in accordance with state law.  That means at least a week before Nevada:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/nhs-gardner-indicates-granite-state.html

So this could be a bit of an issue.  Of course, one solution would be for NH to abandon its traditional Tuesday primary date, and go with a Saturday.  That way, Nevada can be the Saturday after NH, and NH would still be 7 days before NV.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 26, 2011, 03:56:04 pm
New Jersey primary (finally) moves to June:

http://njtoday.net/2011/09/26/nj-presidential-primary-returns-to-june/

Calendar in the OP has been updated.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on September 27, 2011, 03:51:40 pm
I know we've been over this, but when do you expect a firm date for the early states including Iowa and New Hampshire.  Thus, when do you expect a final, firm, set-in-stone calendar?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on September 27, 2011, 03:57:48 pm
When all the other states have chosen their dates.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on September 27, 2011, 05:20:28 pm
I know we've been over this, but when do you expect a firm date for the early states including Iowa and New Hampshire.  Thus, when do you expect a final, firm, set-in-stone calendar?
On October 1 Florida will be forced to make a decision.  The lawmakers will have to decide how much going 5th really matters.  The earliest date talked about (that I am aware of) is January 31; the latest being before February 28, the date of the Arizona and Michigan primaries.

That leaves Georgia and Missouri as the sticklers.  Since September 6, Missouri has been in a special session.  Missouri state law specifies that a special session may last no longer than 60 days, so they can potentially stall until November 4 before passing a bill (which would move the primary to March 6, i.e. "Super Tuesday", IIRC); if no bill passed Missouri's primary will stay on February 7.  The Georgian Secretary of State has until December 31 to decide, though I do not expect him to wait much longer after Missouri decides.

That means we will likely know the final calendar by November.  By next week, we should have a good idea of what shape that calendar will take.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 27, 2011, 05:32:27 pm
Yelnoc's explanation is correct.  I'd just make one other point:

The Georgian Secretary of State has until December 31 to decide, though I do not expect him to wait much longer after Missouri decides.

He might decide before Missouri decides.  Especially if Florida goes for Jan. 31 or something.  That would make the question of whether Missouri goes with Feb. 7 or March 6 less relevant to Georgia's decision.

And while he can wait until December before making a final decision, he has to announce a date at least two months in advance of the primary.  In fact, I think every state has to announce a primary date at least two months or so in advance, in order to comply with recent federal legislation ensuring that overseas military absentee ballots are mailed out in time........but the same rule does not apply to caucuses.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 28, 2011, 04:23:47 am
Washington GOP caucuses moved to March 3:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/washington-republicans-to-caucus-on.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.

We're now down to ten states whose primary/caucus states still seem to be in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Florida
Georgia
Alaska
North Dakota
Missouri
Wisconsin

The other 40 states + DC seem to have locked themselves into the current calendar.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 28, 2011, 07:05:04 am
The Speaker of the House in Florida says that the primary date commission in Florida is likely to pick Jan. 31 as the primary date, in order to keep the state's primary early in the game (possibly 5th, after IA, NH, NV, and SC, though GA has the potential to jump earlier as well):

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/09/28/florida.primary/index.html

Quote
"We are expecting to meet on Friday from 11 to 12, and I expect that they will pick January 31 as Florida's primary date," said Cannon, who helped select members of the nine-member commission.

This was also interesting:

Quote
RNC Chairman Reince Priebus and other GOP officials have been aggressively lobbying Florida Gov. Rick Scott and state legislative leaders to move the primary back to February 21 in a last-ditch effort to protect the integrity of the nominating calendar, sources told CNN.

But apparently, that pitch isn't working, as they don't want to go later than Missouri, Colorado, etc.  We'll presumably find out what they decide on Friday.

If Florida does go with Jan. 31, then it means that Iowa will end up in either the first or second week of January.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 28, 2011, 07:18:00 am
North Dakota caucus to March 6 (Super Tuesday):

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/super-tuesday-caucuses-for-north-dakota.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Florida
Georgia
Alaska
Missouri
Wisconsin


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: NHI on September 28, 2011, 07:51:04 am
http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/09/28/florida.primary/index.html


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 28, 2011, 08:05:18 am
http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/09/28/florida.primary/index.html

Already posted this:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128721.msg3036294#msg3036294


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 28, 2011, 03:09:40 pm
So it looks like IA will again be in the first week of January, just like 2008. Apparently if the parties really want to fix this thing they have to come up with stiffer penalties. What is amazing is that FL got the GOP convention and yet they are throwing the biggest wrench into the process.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 28, 2011, 04:44:24 pm
Georgia SoS Kemp will apparently announce Georgia's primary date on Thursday at 11am:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/georgia-secretary-of-state-brian-kemp.html

The fact that he's announcing before Florida suggests that he's not going to leapfrog Florida.  Maybe it'll be mid-February, since that's wide open.

Meanwhile, IA/NH/NV/SC may have some kind of joint announcement on their primary dates on Thursday as well:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64613.html

Though I'd presume they don't make anything official until after Florida acts.  The calendar may well be pretty much settled (perhaps with a couple of exceptions, like Missouri) within a couple of days.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 28, 2011, 05:06:21 pm
Do IA, NH, NV and SC lose any delegates if they are forced by FL to move from Feb to Jan?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 29, 2011, 04:29:34 am
Do IA, NH, NV and SC lose any delegates if they are forced by FL to move from Feb to Jan?

Actually yes, at least for NH, NV, and SC.  If they move into January, then they lose half their delegates.  Iowa doesn't, because its caucus results aren't technically binding on delegate allocation (which puts it in the same boat as CO and MN).  Yes, the contest that leads off the primary calendar, and the one that gets the most national attention....actually isn't binding on delegate allocation.

In other news, the AP is reporting that Kemp is going to announce that the Georgia primary will be held on March 6 (Super Tuesday):

http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2011/09/28/georgia-presidential-primary-will-be-march-6-2012/

So after all that drama, they may go with the safe option after all.  Meanwhile, the RNC is still pressuring Florida not to go as early as Jan. 31, and Bill Gardner says there will be no announcement this week on the NH primary date:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64674.html

If Florida does go as early as Jan. 31 and Georgia goes on Super Tuesday, then there'll be a gaping hole in the middle of February with no primaries (assuming WI moves later, as expected).  Which I guess would benefit Arizona and Michigan, since they'll get the stage to themselves for a couple of weeks.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 29, 2011, 04:31:12 am
Alaska district conventions will be held on Super Tuesday:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/alaska-gop-to-hold-march-6-district.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Florida
Georgia
Missouri
Wisconsin


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on September 29, 2011, 11:10:43 am
Yep, Georgia will go on Super Tuesday (March 6).

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/29/georgia-announces-primary-date/


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 29, 2011, 11:36:35 am
Missouri might have a caucus instead of a primary:

JEFFERSON CITY • The failure of legislation moving the state's presidential primary to March could result in Missouri returning to a caucus system.

A spokesman for the Missouri Republican Party would not discuss what party leadership is considering, but a conference call has been scheduled tonight for the Missouri Republican State Committee to discuss options.

States must report their planned primary dates to the national parties by Saturday, and with the Missouri Senate adjourned until next week, abandoning the February primary and moving to a March caucus might give the party a chance to stay in compliance with rules set up by the national Democratic and Republican parties.

Under current state law, a primary must be held in February. National party rules dictate that only Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada can hold presidential nominating contests before March 6. States that violate that rule have been threatened with the loss of half of their delegates to the national convention. Other penalties, such as fewer guest passes to the convention, have also been considered.

A bill moving the state's primary to March has become stalled in the state Senate, a victim of the stalemate over a massive economic development bill. In response to the Senate's failure to pass a bill, Missouri GOP Executive Director Lloyd Smith said the party would "explore all of our options, including those that do not require legislative action."

While state law mandates that a presidential primary be held, it does not specifically say that the results must be used to divvy out delegates to presidential candidates. It only says that the results of the primary must be reported to the state parties.

The responsibility of selecting delegates to the national convention is left up to the parties and is to be done at caucuses around the state, and ultimately, at the party's district and state conventions.

"Missouri law sets forth how the presidential primary will be conducted, but the process of selecting delegates for the national conventions is left to the political parties," said Laura Egerdal, communications director for the Secretary of State's office.

County caucuses are already scheduled for March, just as they always are during presidential election years. Participants at those caucuses will select delegates to congressional district and state conventions, where delegates will be chosen to attend the Republican and Democratic national conventions.

Traditionally, the results of the presidential primary have been used to allocate delegates at the caucuses. But Missouri law does not appear to mandate that, meaning Republican officials could -- in theory at least -- essentially turn the presidential primary into a straw poll and tell the Republican National Committee that the true presidential contest will be held at the Missouri Caucuses in March.

The party's legal options are currently being studied, according to members of the party's state committee.

State committee members would not comment on what the party planned to do to stay in compliance with the national party's rules. But several expressed support for a switch to the caucus system, which Missouri has used previously over the years to vote for president.

Read more: http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/political-fix/article_e9248c7c-ea9e-11e0-9fc4-0019bb30f31a.html#ixzz1ZMOTGMHt


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Insula Dei on September 29, 2011, 11:44:19 am
So it looks like IA will again be in the first week of January, just like 2008. Apparently if the parties really want to fix this thing they have to come up with stiffer penalties. What is amazing is that FL got the GOP convention and yet they are throwing the biggest wrench into the process.

Is there any way they could still take the convention away from FL? (I know next to nothing about these things, as you can see). Also, on the whole the BP Gulf disaster seems to have faded from the public mind. Makes one wonder whether they couldn't have done better than that for a convention spot.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 29, 2011, 04:10:39 pm
Yep, Georgia will go on Super Tuesday (March 6).

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/29/georgia-announces-primary-date/

I've now updated the calendar in the OP to reflect this.

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Florida
Missouri
Wisconsin

Those are the only seven left to decide.  The ball is really in Florida's court now.  Can the RNC talk them into going later than Jan. 31?  If Missouri promises to switch from a February primary to a March caucus, will that be good enough to convince Florida to go in late February, or will they refuse to go later than CO, MN, and ME caucuses?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on September 29, 2011, 07:18:13 pm
Missouri is going with caucuses. From the KY3 TV Website

Quote
JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. -- After Gov. Jay Nixon vetoed the elections bill and the General Assembly failed to achieve final passage of the presidential primary bill prior to Oct. 1, the Missouri Republican State Committee held an emergency meeting on Thursday to ensure our state is in compliance with the rules of the Republican Party.  During this meeting, the committee voted unanimously to amend our call to convention and go to a caucus system for the 2012 election.




Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: RI on September 29, 2011, 07:29:38 pm
Missouri caucuses will be on March 17.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 29, 2011, 07:30:58 pm
The term "caucus" has always amused me for some reason.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on September 29, 2011, 07:31:55 pm
Missouri caucuses will be on March 17.
Source?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: RI on September 29, 2011, 07:34:18 pm
Missouri caucuses will be on March 17.
Source?

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/missouri-republicans-will-caucus-on.html (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/missouri-republicans-will-caucus-on.html)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 29, 2011, 09:08:04 pm
Missouri caucuses will be on March 17.
Source?

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/missouri-republicans-will-caucus-on.html (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/missouri-republicans-will-caucus-on.html)

I've updated the calendar in the OP to reflect this.  The primary on Feb. 7 still exists, but won't award any delegates.  The delegate allocation will be based on the March 17 caucus.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 30, 2011, 12:45:18 am
Missouri caucuses will be on March 17.
Source?

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/missouri-republicans-will-caucus-on.html (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/missouri-republicans-will-caucus-on.html)

I've updated the calendar in the OP to reflect this.  The primary on Feb. 7 still exists, but won't award any delegates.  The delegate allocation will be based on the March 17 caucus.

Why are they holding the meaningless primary anyway ? It's a waste of money and organisation then. They should just scrap it.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 30, 2011, 01:37:23 am
Missouri caucuses will be on March 17.
Source?

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/missouri-republicans-will-caucus-on.html (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/missouri-republicans-will-caucus-on.html)

I've updated the calendar in the OP to reflect this.  The primary on Feb. 7 still exists, but won't award any delegates.  The delegate allocation will be based on the March 17 caucus.

Why are they holding the meaningless primary anyway ? It's a waste of money and organisation then. They should just scrap it.

Scrapping it requires the legislature to actually pass a bill that would scrap it, and have the governor sign it.  But all legislative business is basically deadlocked at the moment, as Nixon is at an impasse with the legislature over other issues.  Most of the legislature is at home right now, and they aren't meeting in the capitol on a day-to-day basis.  If there's a breakthrough in negotiations with Nixon, they'll come back to the capitol and start voting on these things again.  But otherwise they're just going to run out the clock on the special session.

So the primary is just kind of a casualty of the legislative impasse.  It's not an important enough issue to motivate the legislature to come back to the capital from their home districts just to kill the primary.

EDIT: I wonder if any of the candidates will actually put their names on the ballot in the meaningless primary.  Filing deadline is in November, and there's a filing fee, but I'm not sure how much it costs.  Maybe the legislature will come back in January and kill the primary then, and refund everyone's money.

If any of you meet the constitutional requirements to serve as POTUS by next year, and you want to run a presidential campaign restricted to the non-binding primary in Missouri, you should file to put your name on the ballot.  If Romney, Perry, Bachmann et al don't put their names on the ballot, you might win!  ;)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 30, 2011, 01:46:07 am
Missouri caucuses will be on March 17.
Source?

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/missouri-republicans-will-caucus-on.html (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/missouri-republicans-will-caucus-on.html)

I've updated the calendar in the OP to reflect this.  The primary on Feb. 7 still exists, but won't award any delegates.  The delegate allocation will be based on the March 17 caucus.

Why are they holding the meaningless primary anyway ? It's a waste of money and organisation then. They should just scrap it.

Scrapping it requires the legislature to actually pass a bill that would scrap it, and have the governor sign it.  But all legislative business is basically deadlocked at the moment, as Nixon is at an impasse with the legislature over other issues.  Most of the legislature is at home right now, and they aren't meeting in the capitol on a day-to-day basis.  If there's a breakthrough in negotiations with Nixon, they'll come back to the capitol and start voting on these things again.  But otherwise they're just going to run out the clock on the special session.

So the primary is just kind of a casualty of the legislative impasse.  It's not an important enough issue to motivate the legislature to come back to the capital from their home districts just to kill the primary.

Cann they kill the primary later ?

It's not like holding such a primary election is cheap and these lawmakers are probably not interested in wasting millions of taxpayer money ahead of the important 2012 election.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 30, 2011, 01:51:36 am
Cann they kill the primary later ?

It's not like holding such a primary election is cheap and these lawmakers are probably not interested in wasting millions of taxpayer money ahead of the important 2012 election.

I was editing my post when you posted this message.  I would assume they can come back in January and kill the primary then.  Of course, the filing deadline is in November, so they'd have to refund everyone's money.

Also, it just occurred to me that states often combine presidential primaries with either state primaries or other local elections.  I have no idea if they're doing that in Missouri or not.  It's possible that the primary is being combined with other elections that'll have to happen anyway.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 30, 2011, 10:17:22 am
Can any of you see the Florida primary date selection committee meeting live stream here?

http://thefloridachannel.org/

I'm not on a computer where I'm able to watch live video at the moment.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 30, 2011, 11:37:41 am
Florida primary officially set to Jan. 31, which is simply a reversion back to when it was originally scheduled, before they set up the special primary calendar panel:

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/florida-presidential-primary-will-be-jan-31-2012/1194512

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Wisconsin

So we basically know the primary calendar now.  Just a few details remain.  Will Wisconsin move to April 3?  Probably, but not official yet.  IA, NH, NV, and SC will presumably all vote in January now (with Iowa some time in early January), but what will the exact dates be?  Will NV and SC go on the same day?  Will NV manage to go just a few days after NH, as they'd hoped to?

The interesting thing about the new calendar is that if Wisconsin does indeed move to April, then there's this big 3 week gap in February with no primaries or caucuses.  My guess is that the gap will probably mean that the early states will be perhaps a bit less important than in recent election cycles.  Because a 3 week gap is long enough that there's time for the campaign to more or less reset.  Momentum from the early states will have time to dissipate.

But maybe it'll be the reverse.  Who knows?  I'm just guessing here.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 30, 2011, 12:20:36 pm
Gov. Walker just signed the primary bill:

MADISON (AP) - Gov. Scott Walker has signed the bill that moves Wisconsin's presidential primary from late February to the first Tuesday in April.

Wisconsin's primary next year would be April 3, the same day as the spring election.

It's part of a move by the national Democratic and Republican parties to avoid front-loading state primaries.

Florida officials also decided Friday to move their presidential primary to Jan. 31, which is expected to prompt other states to move up their primary and caucus dates.

Walker's spokesman Cullen Werwie had no comment on Florida's move Friday.

Currently, Iowa is scheduled to hold its caucuses Feb. 6, followed by the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 14, the Nevada caucus on Feb. 18, the South Carolina primary on Feb. 28 and Super Tuesday March 6.

http://www.leadertelegram.com/news/daily_updates/article_d6971e50-eb82-11e0-a690-001cc4c002e0.html


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 30, 2011, 02:21:57 pm
With every state except IA, NH, NV and SC now having settled on their final date, it very much looks like Romney is the clear favorite ahead of the March Super Tuesday.

IA: He probably won't win it, but ARGGGHGHHHH has him leading there right now !
NH: Should be an easy Romney win
NV: Should be an easy Romney win
SC: Perry was favored, but now he's down and tied with Romney again
FL: Also good Romney territory because of the many old people
CO: Should be a Romney win
MN: Could be a Romney win, if he wins FL before that and Bachmann collapses further
ME: Easy Romney
AZ: Probably Romney, because Perry's immigration policy is DOA and because of the olds
MI: Easy Romney
WA: Easy Romney


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: NHI on September 30, 2011, 02:41:43 pm
The bump of Florida should pave the way for Romney.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on September 30, 2011, 06:40:35 pm
Nevada may keep it's caucus in February.

From the Nevada News Bureau. (I would link if allowed)

Quote
State GOP chair Amy Tarkanian confirmed a short while ago that although discussions are ongoing, she is leaning towards holding Nevada’s presidential caucuses the first week of February. Tarkanian said she is just not sure she’s willing to be penalized and lose half the state’s delegates by scheduling prior to February 1, which is what Republican National Committee rules would require.


That would probably put them 5th, after IA, NH, SC and FL.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on September 30, 2011, 09:06:08 pm
With every state except IA, NH, NV and SC now having settled on their final date, it very much looks like Romney is the clear favorite ahead of the March Super Tuesday.

IA: He probably won't win it, but ARGGGHGHHHH has him leading there right now !
NH: Should be an easy Romney win
NV: Should be an easy Romney win
SC: Perry was favored, but now he's down and tied with Romney again
FL: Also good Romney territory because of the many old people
CO: Should be a Romney win
MN: Could be a Romney win, if he wins FL before that and Bachmann collapses further
ME: Easy Romney
AZ: Probably Romney, because Perry's immigration policy is DOA and because of the olds
MI: Easy Romney
WA: Easy Romney

Perry (and his allies) will have as much or more money than Romney and better Tea Party support. I don't see him losing very many caucus states. And the Republican parties in Colorado and Washington are both pretty conservative; hardly easy Romney wins.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 30, 2011, 09:17:47 pm
Gov. Walker just signed the primary bill:

MADISON (AP) - Gov. Scott Walker has signed the bill that moves Wisconsin's presidential primary from late February to the first Tuesday in April.

Wisconsin's primary next year would be April 3, the same day as the spring election.


I've updated the calendar in the OP to include this.

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina

Sounds like Nevada may decide on whether to go before or after Florida by the Saturday deadline.  Nevada GOP is holding an emergency meeting to discuss the issue.

IA, NH, and SC are expected to miss the deadline, and will probably not announce their dates until next week, at the earliest.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 30, 2011, 11:35:49 pm
Nevada caucus will probably be Feb. 4 (after Florida, but before Colorado and Minnesota):

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64879.html

By staying in February, Nevada will avoid any delegate penalties.  The final decision on the caucus date will be voted on Saturday night.

Assuming they do that, then I would guess that Iowa will end up in the second week of January, NH in the third week of January, and South Carolina in the fourth week of January, followed by Florida on Jan. 31.

Most likely date for Iowa would then be Jan. 10.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on October 01, 2011, 12:01:40 am
I hope we get a definitive calendar soon.  I want to start planning my primary nights election coverage. :)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 01, 2011, 11:35:01 pm
As previously mentioned, as of yesterday it looked like the Nevada GOP was leaning towards scheduling their caucus in February, after Florida.  But tonight, the party voted to keep their current scheduling rule intact, which tethers the caucus date to the date of the NH primary:

http://www.rgj.com/article/20111001/NEWS19/110010335/Nevada-GOP-votes-move-presidential-caucus-January?odyssey=nav%7Chead

They plan to hold the caucus on the Saturday after the NH primary.  This sets up a confrontation with NH, as NH 1) historically votes on a Tuesday, and 2) has a state law that requires them to vote at least seven days before any other primary or caucus (except Iowa).

So something has to give.  Either NH has to vote on a Saturday, or they have to allow NV to vote just four days after them, or NV has to give up on going on the Saturday after NH.

Once we know how that is resolved, we'll know what the calendar looks like.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 02, 2011, 12:49:20 am
As previously mentioned, as of yesterday it looked like the Nevada GOP was leaning towards scheduling their caucus in February, after Florida.  But tonight, the party voted to keep their current scheduling rule intact, which tethers the caucus date to the date of the NH primary:

http://www.rgj.com/article/20111001/NEWS19/110010335/Nevada-GOP-votes-move-presidential-caucus-January?odyssey=nav%7Chead

They plan to hold the caucus on the Saturday after the NH primary.  This sets up a confrontation with NH, as NH 1) historically votes on a Tuesday, and 2) has a state law that requires them to vote at least seven days before any other primary or caucus (except Iowa).

So something has to give.  Either NH has to vote on a Saturday, or they have to allow NV to vote just four days after them, or NV has to give up on going on the Saturday after NH.

Once we know how that is resolved, we'll know what the calendar looks like.


NH shouldn't act like a pussy, as everyone knows that they are much more important than NV.

I would suggest Jan. 10 for Iowa, Jan. 17 for NH, Jan. 21 for NV (Saturday) and Jan. 24 for SC.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on October 02, 2011, 07:49:49 am
As previously mentioned, as of yesterday it looked like the Nevada GOP was leaning towards scheduling their caucus in February, after Florida.  But tonight, the party voted to keep their current scheduling rule intact, which tethers the caucus date to the date of the NH primary:

http://www.rgj.com/article/20111001/NEWS19/110010335/Nevada-GOP-votes-move-presidential-caucus-January?odyssey=nav%7Chead

They plan to hold the caucus on the Saturday after the NH primary.  This sets up a confrontation with NH, as NH 1) historically votes on a Tuesday, and 2) has a state law that requires them to vote at least seven days before any other primary or caucus (except Iowa).

So something has to give.  Either NH has to vote on a Saturday, or they have to allow NV to vote just four days after them, or NV has to give up on going on the Saturday after NH.

Once we know how that is resolved, we'll know what the calendar looks like.


NH shouldn't act like a pussy, as everyone knows that they are much more important than NV.

I would suggest Jan. 10 for Iowa, Jan. 17 for NH, Jan. 21 for NV (Saturday) and Jan. 24 for SC.

That wouldn't bode too well for SC in my opinion with Florida right behind them at January 31.  I would move the earlier states up to put Iowa on January 3, New Hampshire on on January 10, Nevada on January 14, and South Carolina on January 24.  The reason for this is, if Nevada is going to tether themselves to New Hampshire, they obviously don't need or even care about having time for the candidates to shift out west and have several days to campaign in that state alone.  South Carolina has not made any such demands, to my knowledge, and therefore still should get at least a week where candidates can focus on the Palmetto State before transitioning two states to the south to Florida.

I know this puts Iowa campaigning early in December, but they are going to do that anyway, and in the political world, that's not as critical as giving the early states time to have the candidates all to themselves.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 02, 2011, 10:27:07 pm
South Carolina will reveal their primary date at 11am Monday:

http://www.thestate.com/2011/10/02/1994582/sc-gop-to-reveal-primary-date.html

That's the easy part.  The remaining part of the calendar is how things shake out between NH and NV.  That part could very well take a few weeks.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 03, 2011, 09:41:48 am
CNN says they have two sources telling them that South Carolina is going to opt for Jan. 21, 10 days before Florida:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/03/south-carolina-to-hold-primary-on-january-21/

I'll hold off on changing the calendar in the OP until there's an official announcement from SC (which should come within the hour).

If true, then this pretty much guarantees that Iowa will be in the first week of January (probably Jan. 3, 4, or 5).  NH would likely be Jan. 10.  I don't know about NV.  Possibly the same day as SC again now.  I assume that NV will ultimately blink in their standoff with NH.

EDIT: It's official.  South Carolina primary to Jan. 21:

http://www.abcnews4.com/story/15599231/south-carolina-gop-chair-expected-to-announce-new-primary-date-following-floridas-change

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 04, 2011, 02:48:23 am
Now it looks like New Hampshire is waiting for NV's GOP meeting at the end of October.

If Nevada sets their date, NH will set theirs and then Iowa.

So we should have the final calendar in about a month.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 04, 2011, 07:10:05 am
Nevada GOP chairwoman Amy Tarkanian says that the state party intends to schedule the caucus *before* SC on Jan. 21:

http://www.lvrj.com/news/caucuses-sometime-before-jan-21-gop-leader-says-131025468.html

If Nevada goes on Sat, Jan. 14, then NH will likely not be content to go on Tuesday the 10th, because their state law says that they need the 7 day window.  They would likely move to the first week of January, which could push Iowa into December.  Also, both Saturday Jan. 7 and Saturday Jan. 14 will have NFL playoff games during the late afternoon and evening.  Not the best time to be competing for national attention.

If Nevada is willing to go on a day other than a Saturday (say, Tuesday, Jan. 17), then this could be resolved easily.  But the article says "Nevada GOP leaders believe holding the caucuses on a weekend will boost turnout and excitement for the meetings as Republicans pick their presidential favorites."

Again, at least one out of the three of Iowa, NH, and Nevada is going to have to compromise in some way on the timing of their primary or caucus.  If they all insist on going before SC and on having "breathing room" between them and the other states, then Iowa will be pushed into December.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on October 04, 2011, 05:00:05 pm
WA isn't easy Romney at all; the caucus is pretty right-wing. Look at the 2008 results; Huckabee nearly won (though McCain did better in the primary)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: cavalcade on October 05, 2011, 09:09:33 pm
Supposedly Nevada has indeed picked the 14th- not confirmed yet though.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on October 05, 2011, 09:13:12 pm
Supposedly Nevada has indeed picked the 14th- not confirmed yet though.

John Ralston, top political reporter in the state, tweeted that Nevada is indeed going on the 14th.



Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on October 05, 2011, 09:17:07 pm
If New Hampshire insists on going at least 7 days before Nevada and they stick with a Tuesday Primary that would put them on Jan 4th. That would mean the Iowa caucuses happen in December.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: cavalcade on October 05, 2011, 09:24:11 pm
Supposedly Nevada has indeed picked the 14th- not confirmed yet though.

John Ralston, top political reporter in the state, tweeted that Nevada is indeed going on the 14th.




Then I believe that NH can legally go on the 10th and be satisfied that they are special.  Depending on the exact wording of the law, however, they might push the primary forward to the 7th (which would be 7 days before, but not a Tuesday), or the 3rd (which would be both).  Calculate the date of the Iowa caucus accordingly...


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Nichlemn on October 06, 2011, 01:14:40 am
I thought they were trying to deter front loading.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 06, 2011, 02:45:10 am
So, Iowa might be sometime between December 27-31 ?

Nice ... :)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: redcommander on October 06, 2011, 03:36:48 am
So, Iowa might be sometime between December 27-31 ?

Nice ... :)

Awesome. I love the idea of a drawn out primary season. Has Iowa ever held its caucus the year before an election?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 06, 2011, 04:06:51 am
So, Iowa might be sometime between December 27-31 ?

Nice ... :)

Awesome. I love the idea of a drawn out primary season. Has Iowa ever held its caucus the year before an election?

I think it would be the first time that any primary or caucus takes place in December.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Nichlemn on October 06, 2011, 04:24:21 am
So, Iowa might be sometime between December 27-31 ?

Nice ... :)

Awesome. I love the idea of a drawn out primary season. Has Iowa ever held its caucus the year before an election?

I think it would be the first time that any primary or caucus takes place in December.

I'm concerned about precedent. If December is fair game, next time they'll be rushing for November, then October... then where does it end? Inauguration Day of the current term? They'll have to put a stop to it somewhere.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 06, 2011, 05:56:30 am
Nevada caucus to Jan. 14:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/65285.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire

Iowa and NH now have to make some hard decisions.  NH SoS Bill Gardner has consistently said that there's no chance of NH going less than 7 days before NV.  So the latest NH goes is Jan. 7.  NH also historically goes on a Tuesday, so maybe he would opt for Jan. 3.  But then that pushes Iowa into December.  Jan. 7 is less than ideal for NH, because it conflicts with NFL playoffs.  Though my guess is that Gardner really doesn't want Iowa pushed into December, because it would cause the parties to take a hard look at the role of IA and NH for the next time around.  So it's a tough call.

If NH does go on the 3rd, then I suppose there's a remote chance that IA could actually go *later* than NH, in order to avoid being pushed into December.  But that's unlikely.  More likely, NH on Jan. 3 means Iowa in December.  And probably not the last week of December either.  You're not going to get any news coverage over the week between Christmas and New Year's.  If Iowa is in December, it would probably be a week before Christmas, like Dec. 19.

I guess we'll find out one way or the other soon enough.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 06, 2011, 06:03:08 am
Nevada caucus to Jan. 14:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/65285.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire

Iowa and NH now have to make some hard decisions.  NH SoS Bill Gardner has consistently said that there's no chance of NH going less than 7 days before NV.  So the latest NH goes is Jan. 7.  NH also historically goes on a Tuesday, so maybe he would opt for Jan. 3.  But then that pushes Iowa into December.  Jan. 7 is less than ideal for NH, because it conflicts with NFL playoffs.  Though my guess is that Gardner really doesn't want Iowa pushed into December, because it would cause the parties to take a hard look at the role of IA and NH for the next time around.  So it's a tough call.

If NH does go on the 3rd, then I suppose there's a remote chance that IA could actually go *later* than NH, in order to avoid being pushed into December.  But that's unlikely.  More likely, NH on Jan. 3 means Iowa in December.  And probably not the last week of December either.  You're not going to get any news coverage over the week between Christmas and New Year's.  If Iowa is in December, it would probably be a week before Christmas, like Dec. 19.

I guess we'll find out one way or the other soon enough.

NH primary and NFL playoffs starting on Jan. 7 ?

That probably deserves a thick red reminder in my calendar ... ;)

Nothing better than football and voting on the same day.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: cavalcade on October 06, 2011, 08:34:25 am
It now sounds (via Chuck Todd) like Iowa will set their date soon (before NH announces), and would prefer to go in January.

That makes it sound like NH is leaning towards the 7th or 10th.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 06, 2011, 08:39:47 am
It now sounds (via Chuck Todd) like Iowa will set their date soon (before NH announces), and would prefer to go in January.

That makes it sound like NH is leaning towards the 7th or 10th.

Iowa on the 3rd and NH on the 7th maybe ?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 06, 2011, 03:16:59 pm
It now sounds (via Chuck Todd) like Iowa will set their date soon (before NH announces), and would prefer to go in January.

Or perhaps Iowa just wants to grab the Jan. 3 date before NH takes it?  That would force NH to either go with something like Jan. 7 or move into December.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: RI on October 06, 2011, 06:35:46 pm
So, Iowa might be sometime between December 27-31 ?

Nice ... :)

Awesome. I love the idea of a drawn out primary season. Has Iowa ever held its caucus the year before an election?

I think it would be the first time that any primary or caucus takes place in December.

I'm concerned about precedent. If December is fair game, next time they'll be rushing for November, then October... then where does it end? Inauguration Day of the current term? They'll have to put a stop to it somewhere.

Actually, it has sort of happened before. For example, Florida held a caucus that was the actual first step toward electing delegates in October 1979 (I've even found almost all the county results of that contest too :) ). I believe they did it in 1983 as well, but that contest didn't have anywhere near the coverage as in 1979.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on October 06, 2011, 11:06:00 pm
As much as I love early and long, drawn out primary seasons, I don't want any contest in December.  I don't want any political contest interfering with my Christmas or New Year's celebrations.  I hope New Hampshire gives up the idea of a Tuesday, and goes January 7, or at least gives up the idea of a week long gap before the next contest and goes January 10.  Iowa on January 3 is exactly what we had in 2008.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 07, 2011, 01:45:18 am
Reading some of the public comments by people in the know over the last ~24 hours, I'd say that there's a better than 50/50 chance that we're headed towards either Iowa or NH voting in December, and probably about a ~30% chance that NH votes *before* Iowa.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 07, 2011, 07:32:10 am
Rumors are percolating about Romney's allies in the early primary states having pushed for this calendar, with Santorum leading the accusations:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/06/romney-rebuked-over-primary-calendar-moves/

All we know for certain is that Romney campaign people in Nevada publicly said that they preferred for Nevada to schedule its caucuses in January, before Florida.  Whether there was actually a hidden Romney hand in the selection of Jan. 14 in particular, or in the selection of dates for Florida or other states as well is unclear.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 07, 2011, 11:48:45 am
Iowa just picked January 3 for their caucus:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20111007/NEWS09/111007011/1056/


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: cavalcade on October 07, 2011, 01:01:46 pm
Iowa just picked January 3 for their caucus:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20111007/NEWS09/111007011/1056/

That gives NH a pretty nice window.  Seeing how it won't really be relevant this year anyway, they might as well take the 7th, or even the 10th.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on October 08, 2011, 05:01:06 am
I'm pleased with January 3 for Iowa.  Hopefully, NH will get the hint and keep it either January 7 or 10.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 08, 2011, 05:45:55 am
Iowa hasn't really officially decided anything yet:

link (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20111007/NEWS09/111007011/1056/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+desmoinesregister%2FPolitics+%28DesMoinesRegister.com+-+Politics%29)

The caucus date will be voted on on Oct. 16, but until then, it's rather tentative.

The problem with NH going later than that is that Bill Gardner says that he's hamstrung by NH state law, which he claims forces him to go at least 7 days before Nevada.  He also "said the primary would not be scheduled for a Saturday because it is the Jewish sabbath". (http://www.unionleader.com/article/20111006/NEWS0602/710069995)

So where does that leave us?  Unless Gardner is completely bluffing here, the latest he'll schedule the NH primary is Friday, Jan. 6th, just 3 days later than the tentative date for Iowa.  But is it really very likely that he'd go for a Friday primary?  '“Every presidential primary has been on a Tuesday, every state primary has been on a Tuesday, and ever federal and state general election has been on a Tuesday,” Gardner said.'

This is why I'm thinking that it's very very possible that NH will move all the way up to December (maybe the 20th?), putting it before Iowa.  Or possibly, NH moves in and takes Jan. 3rd, and Iowa is bumped up into December instead.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 08, 2011, 07:34:21 am
He also "said the primary would not be scheduled for a Saturday because it is the Jewish sabbath". (http://www.unionleader.com/article/20111006/NEWS0602/710069995)

What ? There are only 10.000 Jews (1%) in New Hampshire. They can vote absentee if they don't want to vote on a Saturday.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 08, 2011, 02:30:37 pm
New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner said today he may schedule the first-in-the nation primary as early as Dec. 6, marking the first time ever that New Hampshire voters would pick a presidential candidate in December.

“Any Tuesday in December would be a possibility, but that’s one of them,” Gardner said today, when asked about a Dec. 6 primary. “It’s not something I would do lightly. It would be done regrettably, but if it has to be done, we’re going to comply with our tradition and our state law.”

http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/10/calendar-war-continues-considers-primary-early-dec/Co3q3Rv3plIJFP1SILrBUP/index.html


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on October 08, 2011, 03:37:03 pm
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/65285.html (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/65285.html)

Nevada set for Saturday, January 14, pushing New Hampshire to first week of January, probably Tuesday, January 3, which pushes Iowa into December.

"Romney may have an advantage campaigning here because if I'm not mistaken Mormons don't celebrate Christmas until March" -Rick Perry, December, 2011.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on October 08, 2011, 06:36:55 pm
Here is the relevant snippet from the New Hampshire Law.

"[the New Hampshire Primary must be held] on the Tuesday at least seven days immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election."

With Nevada scheduled for January 14, the closest date that meets state law is January 3.  Iowa state law "mandates its caucus be held eight days before any caucus or primary"; a legalistic interpretation would place the Iowa Caucuses on December 26.  But there is no way the state will hold its caucuses the day after Christmas.  December 20 looks like a more likely Tuesday.  The problem there is over three weeks and a major holiday will separate it and New Hampshire.  The Iowa results will become much less meaningful due to those dynamics.  And so, Iowa has a vested interest in keeping its primary in January.

The question becomes, how much will the two states compromise?  The New Hampshire Secretary of State seems set on getting his way; I have to think he would not go with the December 6 date but there is no way to know.  This could be easily solved if he ignored the mandate for a Tuesday and placed the New Hampshire primary on January 7.  Then, Iowa could somehow "broadly interpret" its mandate to go on January 1. 


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 08, 2011, 06:54:59 pm
I believe the NH law was changed just a few years ago, so that the SoS can now set it for any day of the week, not just a Tuesday.  So in principle, Gardner could set it for Saturday the 7th.  But he doesn't seem to want to.  He wants to set it for a Tuesday.

Likewise, the 8 day rule in Iowa didn't seem to be binding in 2008, when the caucuses were only 5 days before NH.

So there's flexibility there.  Both states would ideally like to go on Jan. 3, and they'd both like to not have to share that week with the other state.  But obviously, at least one of them is going to lose out on that.  We may find out next weekend, if the Iowa GOP takes a vote on what date to set the caucuses for on Oct. 16.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on October 08, 2011, 10:01:30 pm
Sounds to me like NH will go Tues 1/3 and Iowa will go the last week of December.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 08, 2011, 10:35:22 pm
Sounds to me like NH will go Tues 1/3 and Iowa will go the last week of December.

I just don't believe they'd hold the caucus on the day after Christmas, or really any time that week between X-mas and New Year's..  If they're going in December, it'll probably be in the week before Christmas, perhaps Dec. 19.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on October 08, 2011, 11:10:32 pm
You think they'd avoid the 27th-29th?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 08, 2011, 11:49:17 pm
You think they'd avoid the 27th-29th?

Probably.  Everyone's on vacation that week.  Who's going to be paying attention to politics?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on October 09, 2011, 07:03:17 am
The thought of a primary just shortly after Thanksgiving is pretty mind-blowing.  If New Hampshire or Iowa goes early in December, that's what we're going to have.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on October 09, 2011, 10:08:36 am
The thought of a primary just shortly after Thanksgiving is pretty mind-blowing.  If New Hampshire or Iowa goes early in December, that's what we're going to have.
And then we will have a space of a month before the primaries really start.  Assuming Romney does not sweep Iowa and New Hampshire, those results will likely be forgotten and South Carolina and New Hampshire will be viewed as the "real" first primaries. 


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on October 09, 2011, 11:42:01 am
The thought of a primary just shortly after Thanksgiving is pretty mind-blowing.  If New Hampshire or Iowa goes early in December, that's what we're going to have.
And then we will have a space of a month before the primaries really start.  Assuming Romney does not sweep Iowa and New Hampshire, those results will likely be forgotten and South Carolina and New Hampshire will be viewed as the "real" first primaries. 

Remember that there is a 3-week gap in February, as well.  So, we're likely to get Iowa, then a 3-4 week break, followed by January with NH, NV, SC, FL, and the Feb 7 states, and then another 3 week gap before Feb 28 which is the week before Super Tuesday.  It's conceivable, though not near as likely that the results from January could be erased when we get to the Feb 28/March calendar time frame.  None of the states in January, save for Florida, have all that many delegates, so it's possible that a candidate that didn't do too well in January could come back strong in March and suprise a few folks.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 10, 2011, 03:15:09 am
Ballot Access News notes that the 2012 primary season will be the longest ever, and that the "median primary date" will be April 3, the latest it's been since 1992:

http://www.ballot-access.org/2011/10/09/2012-presidential-primary-season-likely-to-last-a-record-length-of-time/


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 10, 2011, 10:45:37 am
A map of the primary/caucus dates so far:

(http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/7543/primary.png)

Green = January
Blue = February
Red = Super Tuesday (March 6)
Light Red = March (excl. Super Tuesday)
Yellow = April
Purple = May
Orange = June


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 11, 2011, 05:21:28 am
I still say there's a non-negligible chance that NH goes before Iowa, and the media hasn't really caught onto this yet.

It's highly likely that next Sunday, the Iowa GOP will vote to hold their caucus on Jan. 3.  That's when we find out if Bill Gardner is bluffing.  If he's really serious about sticking with a Tuesday, going at least 7 days before Nevada and giving NH a week of its own that it doesn't share with other states, then we'll have a December New Hampshire primary.

Does Iowa then abandon Jan. 3, and jump up to December as well, to keep up with New Hampshire?  Possibly, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion.  Sticking with Jan. 3, and letting NH go first would be a very real possibility.  In general, being the first primary/caucus state maximizes your influence.  But it's not clear that that would hold if you really move your primary or caucus up into December and the holiday season.  Any momentum one would get from a December primary could easily evaporate, as people are focused on the holidays.

I guess we'll find out soon enough....


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on October 11, 2011, 01:18:55 pm
I still say there's a non-negligible chance that NH goes before Iowa, and the media hasn't really caught onto this yet.

It's highly likely that next Sunday, the Iowa GOP will vote to hold their caucus on Jan. 3.  That's when we find out if Bill Gardner is bluffing.  If he's really serious about sticking with a Tuesday, going at least 7 days before Nevada and giving NH a week of its own that it doesn't share with other states, then we'll have a December New Hampshire primary.

Does Iowa then abandon Jan. 3, and jump up to December as well, to keep up with New Hampshire?  Possibly, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion.  Sticking with Jan. 3, and letting NH go first would be a very real possibility.  In general, being the first primary/caucus state maximizes your influence.  But it's not clear that that would hold if you really move your primary or caucus up into December and the holiday season.  Any momentum one would get from a December primary could easily evaporate, as people are focused on the holidays.

I guess we'll find out soon enough....


Maybe they'd both go January 3.  But to clarify: Iowa is not locked in by the date they choose next Sunday, no?  They can move the caucus date after New Hampshire sets its date?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 11, 2011, 03:22:20 pm
Maybe they'd both go January 3.  But to clarify: Iowa is not locked in by the date they choose next Sunday, no?  They can move the caucus date after New Hampshire sets its date?

Legally, they can move it again.  Practically......they can't wait forever.  At some point in the not too distant future, they really should start locking down sites to hold the caucuses, so they know they can pull this off without a hitch.  Though I imagine such a day of reckoning won't come until at least Nov. 1.

OTOH, the FHQ blog indicated that NH is so experienced with throwing together a primary at the last minute, that they could potentially do it all within a couple of weeks or something.  I think I had previously mentioned that the federal MOVE Act required them to set a date something like two months in advance, but apparently that's not an issue if they're willing to pay a fine for violating it.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: greenforest32 on October 11, 2011, 03:57:57 pm
A map of the primary/caucus dates so far:

(http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/7543/primary.png)

Green = January
Blue = February
Red = Super Tuesday (March 6)
Light Red = March (excl. Super Tuesday)
Yellow = April
Purple = May
Orange = June

What's going on with Missouri?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: RI on October 11, 2011, 04:34:26 pm
A map of the primary/caucus dates so far:

(http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/7543/primary.png)

Green = January
Blue = February
Red = Super Tuesday (March 6)
Light Red = March (excl. Super Tuesday)
Yellow = April
Purple = May
Orange = June

What's going on with Missouri?

It has a primary and a caucus.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: greenforest32 on October 11, 2011, 05:26:47 pm
A map of the primary/caucus dates so far:

(http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/7543/primary.png)

Green = January
Blue = February
Red = Super Tuesday (March 6)
Light Red = March (excl. Super Tuesday)
Yellow = April
Purple = May
Orange = June

What's going on with Missouri?

It has a primary and a caucus.

Why would they do that? Just so they can hold one earlier than the other and double dip? :P


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 12, 2011, 01:33:23 am
A map of the primary/caucus dates so far:

(http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/7543/primary.png)

Green = January
Blue = February
Red = Super Tuesday (March 6)
Light Red = March (excl. Super Tuesday)
Yellow = April
Purple = May
Orange = June

What's going on with Missouri?

It has a primary and a caucus.

Why would they do that? Just so they can hold one earlier than the other and double dip? :P

So they can waste taxpayer money.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: cavalcade on October 12, 2011, 03:37:15 pm
Maybe they'd both go January 3.  But to clarify: Iowa is not locked in by the date they choose next Sunday, no?  They can move the caucus date after New Hampshire sets its date?

I think I had previously mentioned that the federal MOVE Act required them to set a date something like two months in advance, but apparently that's not an issue if they're willing to pay a fine for violating it.


You're talking about a state that forgoes millions of dollars each year in federal transportation funding rather than require adults to wear a seatbelt.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: True Federalist on October 12, 2011, 06:48:58 pm
A map of the primary/caucus dates so far:

(http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/7543/primary.png)

Green = January
Blue = February
Red = Super Tuesday (March 6)
Light Red = March (excl. Super Tuesday)
Yellow = April
Purple = May
Orange = June

What's going on with Missouri?

It has a primary and a caucus.

Why would they do that? Just so they can hold one earlier than the other and double dip? :P

Nah.  The State GOP doesn't want to lose delegates by going too early, but the State legislature and the governor could never agree on a bill to move the primary date later, so the Missouri GOP won't use the primary results to select its delegates but instead a caucus to be held later.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mehmentum on October 12, 2011, 07:25:32 pm
You think they'd avoid the 27th-29th?

Probably.  Everyone's on vacation that week.  Who's going to be paying attention to politics?

Us.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on October 12, 2011, 08:04:30 pm
You think they'd avoid the 27th-29th?

Probably.  Everyone's on vacation that week.  Who's going to be paying attention to politics?

Us.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: ibarnes on October 12, 2011, 09:36:39 pm
Maybe they'd both go January 3.  But to clarify: Iowa is not locked in by the date they choose next Sunday, no?  They can move the caucus date after New Hampshire sets its date?

I think I had previously mentioned that the federal MOVE Act required them to set a date something like two months in advance, but apparently that's not an issue if they're willing to pay a fine for violating it.


You're talking about a state that forgoes millions of dollars each year in federal transportation funding rather than require adults to wear a seatbelt.

We have a seatbelt law here. We forgo millions of dollars each year in federal transportation funding rather than require motorcyclists to wear helmets. But I understand lots of states do that now...


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 13, 2011, 05:04:14 am
NH SoS Bill Gardner issues a memo in which the first nine paragraphs are about how the New Hampshire primary is awesome:

http://www.sos.nh.gov/Why%20New%20Hampshire%20is%20First%2010.12.11.pdf

The rest of the memo is a plea to Nevada to move its caucus to Jan. 17 or later, so that NH can schedule their primary for Jan. 10 and follow their law that requires a 7 day window before the next contest, while also honoring the state's tradition of voting on a Tuesday.

Gardner says that if Nevada doesn't agree to that, he'll consider scheduling NH for December 6 or 13.

EDIT: And Sandoval says thanks, but no thanks:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/new-hampshire-and-nevada-have-words-over-presidential-contests/2011/10/12/gIQAT8GMgL_blog.html


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Pilchard on October 13, 2011, 06:51:17 am
Quote
NEW HAMSHIRE IS FIRST FOR A REASON.

I like how at the beginning of the fifth paragraph he manages to spell the name of his state wrong in block capitals.

edit: aaw, it seems to have been corrected now


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on October 13, 2011, 08:41:14 am
This means with the refusal of Nevada to move its caucus date to January 17.  New Hampshire will likely go December 6 or 13 which is just 7 1/2 - 8 1/2 weeks from now!! The candidates will be spending much of November, including Thanksgiving, almost exclusively in New Hampshire.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mehmentum on October 13, 2011, 10:50:55 am
This means with the refusal of Nevada to move its caucus date to January 17.  New Hampshire will likely go December 6 or 13 which is just 7 1/2 - 8 1/2 weeks from now!! The candidates will be spending much of November, including Thanksgiving, almost exclusively in New Hampshire.
As if this presidential race wasn't screwed up enough as it is.

Edit: Won't Iowa have to move its caucus to before NH?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on October 13, 2011, 11:20:44 am
This means with the refusal of Nevada to move its caucus date to January 17.  New Hampshire will likely go December 6 or 13 which is just 7 1/2 - 8 1/2 weeks from now!! The candidates will be spending much of November, including Thanksgiving, almost exclusively in New Hampshire.
As if this presidential race wasn't screwed up enough as it is.

Edit: Won't Iowa have to move its caucus to before NH?

That would mean a November Iowa Caucus


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: M on October 13, 2011, 11:29:54 am
This means with the refusal of Nevada to move its caucus date to January 17.  New Hampshire will likely go December 6 or 13 which is just 7 1/2 - 8 1/2 weeks from now!! The candidates will be spending much of November, including Thanksgiving, almost exclusively in New Hampshire.
As if this presidential race wasn't screwed up enough as it is.

Edit: Won't Iowa have to move its caucus to before NH?

That would mean a November Iowa Caucus

Jeez. If so, Perry would need to release his ad buys NOW. And time would pretty much be up for anyone else but Cain and maybe Romney to prevail there.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 13, 2011, 01:57:53 pm
NH going in December and then nothing happening for about a month screws over Mitt Romney hard.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 13, 2011, 03:25:27 pm
This means with the refusal of Nevada to move its caucus date to January 17.  New Hampshire will likely go December 6 or 13 which is just 7 1/2 - 8 1/2 weeks from now!! The candidates will be spending much of November, including Thanksgiving, almost exclusively in New Hampshire.
As if this presidential race wasn't screwed up enough as it is.

Edit: Won't Iowa have to move its caucus to before NH?

No, they don't "have to".  It's an open question as to whether they would or not.  My guess is no, they'd just let NH go first if it wants to go in December.  Certainly, Iowa isn't going to move into November, just a few days after Thanksgiving.

NH going in December and then nothing happening for about a month screws over Mitt Romney hard.

Don't worry, because Romney's opponents are here to bail him out:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20119904-503544.html

Quote
Republican presidential candidate Jon Huntsman Thursday threatened to boycott the Nevada primary caucus if officials there keep their date of Jan. 14, just 11 days after the first-in-the-nation voting event in Iowa.

And now Bachmann, Gingrich, and Santorum are saying the same thing (according to Josh McElveen at WMUR....still haven't found a real news article to confirm that):

Twitter link (http://twitter.com/#!/JoshMcElveen/status/124561288247521280)

Twitter link (http://twitter.com/#!/JoshMcElveen/status/124564440929681410)

Will Nevada now fold?  Or do they not care about the second tier candidates skipping their caucus?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 13, 2011, 03:56:45 pm
http://www.newhampshire.com/article/20111013/NEWS0605/110609989

Quote
Primary Status has learned that following Jon Huntsman's lead on the issue this morning, also pledging to boycott Nevada are Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, with Michele Bachmann also a possibility.

Rick Perry is also considering the move, while Mitt Romney's campaign says he will not boycott.

[New Hampshire] House Speaker Bill O'Brien is calling on candidate to “respect the primary and boycott the Nevada caucus,” said his aid, Greg Moore. The O'Brien move is in reaction to Nevada Republicans' decision to schedule its caucus on Jan. 14, 2012, which may force Secretary of State Bill Gardner to schedule the New Hampshire Primary in December.

Perry is considering boycotting a caucus in a state where the governor has endorsed him?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 13, 2011, 04:06:23 pm
Wow, what the hell is wrong with these people? Moving NH to December would essentially make it irrelevant, which would be a significant blow to Romney's campaign.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 13, 2011, 04:17:40 pm
Here's Nate Silver's take on potential early December NH primary, including this fun graphic showing what the calendar would look like if NH goes on Dec. 6:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/12/early-new-hampshire-primary-could-backfire-on-romney/

(http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/10/13/us/politics/fivethirtyeight-1013-earlyNH1/fivethirtyeight-1013-earlyNH1-blog480.png)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on October 13, 2011, 06:14:33 pm
Wow, what the hell is wrong with these people? Moving NH to December would essentially make it irrelevant, which would be a significant blow to Romney's campaign.
They should be applauding New Hampshire's decision, at least in private.  The only person for whom it makes sense to oppose Nevada's early date is Huntsman, who needs to win New Hampshire and then be relevant.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on October 13, 2011, 07:12:06 pm
http://www.newhampshire.com/article/20111013/NEWS0605/110609989

Quote
Primary Status has learned that following Jon Huntsman's lead on the issue this morning, also pledging to boycott Nevada are Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, with Michele Bachmann also a possibility.

Rick Perry is also considering the move, while Mitt Romney's campaign says he will not boycott.

[New Hampshire] House Speaker Bill O'Brien is calling on candidate to “respect the primary and boycott the Nevada caucus,” said his aid, Greg Moore. The O'Brien move is in reaction to Nevada Republicans' decision to schedule its caucus on Jan. 14, 2012, which may force Secretary of State Bill Gardner to schedule the New Hampshire Primary in December.

Perry is considering boycotting a caucus in a state where the governor has endorsed him?


Isn't it obvious Perry would be way smarter to now boycott New Hampshire in defense of Iowa?  It might boost him/damage his rivals there where he has a better chance.  Even if some others joined the boycott of New Hampshire, it'd just put a huge asterisk next to a Romney win there.  Perry is going to get embarrassed in New Hampshire no matter what and he's being handed on a silver state platter, a perfect excuse not to compete there.  You'd think the campaign that dodged Ames to great success would have figured this out by now.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 13, 2011, 08:16:47 pm
Why is everyone picking on NV and threatening a boycott when it was FL that caused this problem. Plus SC chose to go 10 days before FL, making the problem even worse. If SC went a week before FL, then everyone goes on a Tuesday and everyone gets the same week buffer zone.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: True Federalist on October 14, 2011, 12:04:57 am
Why is everyone picking on NV and threatening a boycott when it was FL that caused this problem. Plus SC chose to go 10 days before FL, making the problem even worse. If SC went a week before FL, then everyone goes on a Tuesday and everyone gets the same week buffer zone.

South Carolina has traditionally held the GOP primary on a Saturday and that was not going to change n matter what.  When FL moved to the 31st, that forced SC to the 21st, as they were not going to schedule it 3 days before FL under any circumstances. The Democrats were willing to settle for only 3 days before FL in 2008, but not the GOP, and that was in part to downplay any advantage Obama might gain in South Carolina if Hillary did poorly, which she did.

Nevada wants a Saturday caucus, so that forced them to the 14th.  Nevada was willing to share the date with the the SC GOP Primary in 2008 because for them, the Democratic race was the important one given that Romney was expected to easily win Nevada, which he did, and as I said, the SC Dems obligingly gave Nevada a 7 day window. The Democratic nomination is meaningless this time, so that doesn't pertain.

If the mess is to be straightened out, Florida needs to go later.  The nomination race will still be going strong until at least March, so February 21 would give Florida a two week window in which the candidates would concentrate there. That would also allow both SC and NV to go 1 week later and give NH the room in needs to avoid a December primary.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 14, 2011, 05:48:57 am
If the mess is to be straightened out, Florida needs to go later.

There's no mechanism for that to happen, since the Florida legislature is out of session, and won't be back in session until after the primary.  Besides, Florida doesn't care about New Hampshire going in December.  Why should they care?

Anyway, Florida also wouldn't have scheduled their primary on Jan. 31 if Colorado and Minnesota hadn't scheduled their caucuses for Feb. 7.  It doesn't make much sense to "blame" any one state for this.  It's the "fault" of the entire primary system, in which the national parties set rules with toothless penalties for breaking them, and still expects the individual states to follow their rules, even when they see following the rules as going against their self interests.  As I said a year ago, the RNC was delusional to think that they could successfully move the beginning of primary season back to February, given the way the incentives work, and the fact that a single state can unravel the whole thing.  There's no real way to "fix" this as long as the individual states are running their own elections.

With regard to the candidate boycotts of Nevada.....if it's just Bachmann, Gingrich, Huntsman, and Santorum, then I doubt that'll be enough to get the Nevada GOP to change the Jan. 14 date.  Most of them were never going to campaign much in Nevada anyway.  How many of them will even be in the race by Jan. 14?  Unless Nevada gets some kind of pressure from, say, Romney or Perry or the RNC, I don't see them changing their minds.  Though I wouldn't bet the farm on that.  You never know.

Also, there's a debate in Nevada on Tuesday.  I'm guessing we'll actually get a question in the debate on the primary calendar now, and whether the candidates are going to campaign in Nevada.

EDIT:  Oh, and most of these boycott threats are not really ironclad.  They're mostly saying that if Nevada is within a week of NH, they'll boycott Nevada.  Well, if NH follows through on a move to December, then Nevada stays on Jan. 14 and will not be within a week of NH.  Does that mean no boycott?  Only Santorum specifically says he will boycott the state if it stays on Jan. 14:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/65930.html


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 14, 2011, 07:08:45 am
Romney, Perry, and Paul all say they will not join a boycott of Nevada:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/13/huntsman-to-boycott-nv-in-favor-of-nh/

The only major candidate who hasn't weighed in is Cain.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on October 14, 2011, 03:54:31 pm
Is there still a meeting scheduled for Sunday to determine the dates for Iowa and New Hampshire?  What time is that meeting scheduled for?  A third question, will we have a definite calendar with Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada by the time we wake up Monday morning or will this linger for a couple more weeks closer to Halloween?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 14, 2011, 06:50:29 pm
Cain will boycott Nevada as well:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/66013.html

but that doesn't seem to apply to the debate being held there in a few days.  Most of the candidates will participate in the debate (except Huntsman), but the only ones promising to campaign in Nevada after that are Romney, Perry, and Paul.

Is there still a meeting scheduled for Sunday to determine the dates for Iowa and New Hampshire?  What time is that meeting scheduled for?  A third question, will we have a definite calendar with Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada by the time we wake up Monday morning or will this linger for a couple more weeks closer to Halloween?

The meeting on Sunday is just for the Iowa GOP.  It is likely that they'll vote on an Iowa caucus date at that time.

I don't know when Bill Gardner will decide the NH primary date.  He could easily take the decision into November with him.  There's no way to know.

Regarding a "definite" decision from Nevada.....as far as the Nevada GOP is concerned, they've already made it "definite", and they're voting on Jan. 14.  Of course, it's still theoretically possible for them to change their minds, just like it's theoretically possible for virtually any of the caucus states to change their minds.  That doesn't mean they're likely to do so though.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 14, 2011, 09:25:40 pm
A December primary in NH would strain the finances of cities across the state, since they haven't budgeted for it:

http://www.wmur.com/new-hampshire-primary-extended-coverage/29488154/detail.html

Quote
Most town budgets lack the money for the primary to be held before January. Linxweiler said that if the primary is pushed to December, the town would somehow have to come up with extra money.

Also, it looks like a NH primary on Jan. 3 may be logistically impossible for Manchester:

Quote
Manchester has another possible complication. If the primary was moved to Jan. 3, the city would have a difficult time taking part.

"There are no ward moderators, there are no selectmen, because we all must be sworn in that day," Gatsas said. "By our charter, it says on the first Tuesday of January, we must be sworn in, and that's Jan. 3."


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on October 15, 2011, 02:11:32 am
Bachmann boycotting Nevada.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-bachmann-nevada-20111014,0,4796870.story?track=icymi (http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-bachmann-nevada-20111014,0,4796870.story?track=icymi)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Joe Republic on October 15, 2011, 03:17:29 am
I like how this mess is all Nevada's fault, and in no way Florida's (or New Hampshire's).  ::)

In fact, New Hampshire's argument makes little sense.  If they feel like Nevada is forcing them to push their primary forward, why did they never do so when Iowa first jumped ahead of them?  Oh yeah, because they have caucuses, not a primary, so it never really mattered as far as they were concerned.  So what the frick is the difference here?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2011, 03:57:40 am
For the future, I would favor a system like the one that is used in the Champions League group draw, in which there would be pots for 10 groups of 5 states each. And every week for 10 weeks in a row there would be primaries held in 5 states that were drawn before into this group.

Or eleven weeks/groups, with the overseas territories.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 15, 2011, 07:14:08 pm
If NH does go for December, will Iowa follow them into December to maintain their first in the nation status?  No one really knows:

http://ames.patch.com/articles/iowans-split-on-leapfrogging-election-contestssome-iowans-shrug-off-possible-2011-contests-and-say-keep-caucus-in-january


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 15, 2011, 07:16:21 pm
but then wouldnt NH jump back into January once IA jumped out?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Phony Moderate on October 15, 2011, 07:19:00 pm
If NH does go for December, will Iowa follow them into December to maintain their first in the nation status?  No one really knows:

http://ames.patch.com/articles/iowans-split-on-leapfrogging-election-contestssome-iowans-shrug-off-possible-2011-contests-and-say-keep-caucus-in-january


If New Hampshire sets it's date for December 6th, and Iowa still wants to go first, then wouldn't Iowa have to be held in November?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 15, 2011, 07:22:59 pm
but then wouldnt NH jump back into January once IA jumped out?

Maybe, but not necessarily.  The whole thing's rather unclear.  Like I said a few posts ago, Jan. 3 would be logistically difficult for Manchester (NH's largest city).  But then, December is logistically difficult as well.

If NH does go for December, will Iowa follow them into December to maintain their first in the nation status?  No one really knows:

http://ames.patch.com/articles/iowans-split-on-leapfrogging-election-contestssome-iowans-shrug-off-possible-2011-contests-and-say-keep-caucus-in-january


If New Hampshire sets it's date for December 6th, and Iowa still wants to go first, then wouldn't Iowa have to be held in November?

I doubt Gardner is serious about Dec. 6.  If he goes with December, it'll probably be mid-December.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on October 16, 2011, 04:55:47 am
but then wouldnt NH jump back into January once IA jumped out?

Maybe, but not necessarily.  The whole thing's rather unclear.  Like I said a few posts ago, Jan. 3 would be logistically difficult for Manchester (NH's largest city).  But then, December is logistically difficult as well.

If NH does go for December, will Iowa follow them into December to maintain their first in the nation status?  No one really knows:

http://ames.patch.com/articles/iowans-split-on-leapfrogging-election-contestssome-iowans-shrug-off-possible-2011-contests-and-say-keep-caucus-in-january


If New Hampshire sets it's date for December 6th, and Iowa still wants to go first, then wouldn't Iowa have to be held in November?

I doubt Gardner is serious about Dec. 6.  If he goes with December, it'll probably be mid-December.


He could go with December 13 or even 20 as the latter is still the week before Christmas Day.  Really, the only Tuesday that is off the table is probably December 27 as that is Christmas/New Years vacation week.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Meeker on October 17, 2011, 09:04:36 pm
I don't think Gardner can go in December due to military absentee ballot rules.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 18, 2011, 04:53:14 am
I don't think Gardner can go in December due to military absentee ballot rules.

Actually, he can:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/gardners-bluffing-but-it-has-nothing-to.html

Anyway, the Iowa GOP has now set their caucus date and time for January 3, at 7pm Central:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/18/us-iowa-caucus-republicans-idUSTRE79H0IC20111018

Legally, they could still move it again in response to whatever NH does, but it looks like they're probably not going to, barring extraordinary circumstances:

Quote
"One thing that I have received clear guidance from Iowa Republicans on over the last week and a half is the desire to make sure the caucuses are in 2012," Iowa Republican Party chairman Matt Strawn said in an interview.
.
.
.
"Having a firm date of January 3 accomplishes some certainty not just for the voters, not just for the candidates, but really allows us to do all the organizational planning necessary to get over 1,700 precincts set up for caucus night," Strawn said.

So that leaves NH as the only state left that hasn't set their primary date.  Bill Gardner is still holding out hope that Nevada will change its mind, and move to a later date, which would then have NH going on Jan. 10.  But they're still at an impasse.  The Nevada GOP is meeting on Saturday, Oct. 22, and it's entirely possible that they'll fold, in order to placate crybaby Bill Gardner, and prevent the candidate boycott.  Josh Putnam says that he's betting that they will fold, and also quotes NV political journalist Jon Ralston as saying that he doesn't "get a sense of "steely resolve" from NVGOP chairwoman, Amy Tarkanian regarding the current caucus date."

OTOH, it looks like the Nevada Democratic Party is strongly considering moving their own caucus date to Jan. 14 as a show of solidarity with the state GOP on holding the line against NH.....so who really knows what's going to happen.

EDIT: Meanwhile, NBC announces a NH debate on Meet the Press, the Sunday before the NH primary, whenever that might be:

http://www.unionleader.com/article/20111016/NEWS0605/111019922

Will that debate be held on New Year's Day?  ;)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 18, 2011, 05:00:43 am
In other news, the Missouri legislature tries yet again to deal with the primary that's currently scheduled for Feb. 7, and will award no delegates.  But they can't agree on the bill to cancel it, or to move it, so it looks like it's going to stay on Feb. 7, and award no delegates, while the delegates will be allocated based on the March caucuses:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/around-around-it-goes-in-missouri-where.html


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 18, 2011, 04:26:16 pm
It'll be interesting to see how the boycott is discussed at tonight's debate.  To what extent will the candidates defend their decision to boycott NV (or not)?  That might give us a clue as to how much pressure the Nevada GOP is under to change the caucus date.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 19, 2011, 05:44:13 am
So the boycott apparently wasn't covered at all in the debate.

Anyway, the Nevada Dems have moved their own caucus to Jan. 14, in solidarity with the Nevada GOP:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/timely-solidarity-nevada-democrats-join.html

Yet, it sounds more and more like Nevada is getting ready to fold.  Amy Tarkanian said "As of today, we are on the 14th", as if that could easily change.  Brian Sandoval is supposedly now getting pressure from Priebus to move later, and he sounds like he's ready to fold.

The Nevada GOP is meeting on Saturday, and if the date is going to change, they'll probably do it then.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 19, 2011, 10:26:18 am
What cowards. This is our chance to break New Hampshire's monopoly on the process once and for all they're throwing in the towel.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 19, 2011, 03:54:41 pm
Rumor on Twitter is that Nevada GOP may be considering going all the way back to Feb. 4, which puts them just *after* Florida.  They would then get no delegate penalty.  Priebus may have given them some kind of assurance that they'll still get an early slot in 2016, though it's really impossible to guarantee that this far in advance.

All is rumor, but something official may come soon.


Title: Counties challenge S.C. GOP primary
Post by: True Federalist on October 19, 2011, 05:19:30 pm
From The State (http://www.thestate.com/2011/10/18/2014063/4-sc-counties-sue-over-sc-republican.html)

Quote from: Adam Beam - The State
Four S.C. counties have filed a lawsuit challenging the state’s high-profile “first in the South” Republican presidential primary.

...

If successful, the lawsuit would make it more difficult for state Republicans to hold their primary on Jan. 21, forcing the GOP to pay for it with private money.

I don't think the lawsuit will succeed or cause the GOP to shift the date.  It is of note is the counties who filed it: Beaufort, Chester, Greenville and Spartanburg. Three of them are GOP strongholds, so this is not a political lawsuit (in the sense of party politics that is).  This is more about yet another unfunded mandate on local governments coming from Columbia.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 20, 2011, 03:51:15 am
Reince Priebus appears to be urging Nevada to move to a later date.  Not because he favors NH over NV, but because he has no leverage over Bill Gardner in NH, so getting NV to move is the path of least resistance.  Here is a summary of what the Nevada GOP will apparently get if they move to Feb. 4:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/in-return-for-forfeiting-its-coveted.html

Quote
-a protected position in the pre-window period
-a promise of stronger future sanctions
-to keep first in the West status
-to keep a full slate of delegates for holding a rules-compliant contest
-a promise of high-level party surrogates to raise money in the state
-a date -- presumably February 4 -- all to themselves four days after the Florida primary and three days before non-binding caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota.
-no more headaches at the mere mention of Bill Gardner's name.
-no more pressure from the RNC, Iowa Republicans and New Hampshire's Republican leadership, elected officials and media outlets.

Whether this will be enough to satisfy the Nevada GOP or not, I don't know.  It looks like it probably will be, but they'll vote on it on Saturday.

In the meantime, it looks like the Ohio primary date is still uncertain.  The details are a bit complicated, but here's a summary:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/ohio-presidential-primary-date-back-up.html

In short, the redistricting battle for Congress is likely to drag on beyond the filing deadline for incumbent members of Congress in Ohio, which means that candidates would be filing their candidacy to run in districts that may or may not exist at the time of the election.  So the combined presidential-and-congressional primary might be moved back from its current Super Tuesday date to May or June.  This will be sorted out in the legislature (or not) in the near future.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 20, 2011, 03:55:20 am
Oh, and New Hampshire politicos have set up this ridiculous website to petition candidates to boycott Nevada if they don't change the caucus date:

http://boycottnevada.org/


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on October 20, 2011, 07:39:17 pm
Oh, and New Hampshire politicos have set up this ridiculous website to petition candidates to boycott Nevada if they don't change the caucus date:

http://boycottnevada.org/

Web 1.0...

rofl


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 21, 2011, 05:17:08 am
Every indication is that Nevada is going to move to Feb. 4 on Saturday, but we still have to wait and see to be sure.

Also, in Ohio, the state senate has passed a bill that would move the primary there to June 12:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/ohio-senate-passes-bill-creating.html

The extra time gives them more time to sort out the redistricting mess.

State with primary dates still in flux:

Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on October 21, 2011, 08:16:53 am
Every indication is that Nevada is going to move to Feb. 4 on Saturday, but we still have to wait and see to be sure.

Also, in Ohio, the state senate has passed a bill that would move the primary there to June 12:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/ohio-senate-passes-bill-creating.html

The extra time gives them more time to sort out the redistricting mess.

State with primary dates still in flux:

Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio


I know you've probably mentioned this before, but if Nevada goes go back to February 4 do you think New Hampshire would then fill in the January 10 slot, because of the 7-day rule, or would they ignore that rule and go to January 17 with Iowa possibly moving back to January 10?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on October 21, 2011, 02:30:20 pm
Every indication is that Nevada is going to move to Feb. 4 on Saturday, but we still have to wait and see to be sure.

Also, in Ohio, the state senate has passed a bill that would move the primary there to June 12:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/ohio-senate-passes-bill-creating.html

The extra time gives them more time to sort out the redistricting mess.

State with primary dates still in flux:

Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio


I know you've probably mentioned this before, but if Nevada goes go back to February 4 do you think New Hampshire would then fill in the January 10 slot, because of the 7-day rule, or would they ignore that rule and go to January 17 with Iowa possibly moving back to January 10?

South Carolina is January 21st so NH would look insane to move to the 17th after the whole NV fiasco.  What I don't understand is why Nevada doesn't move to January 17, 24 or 28 instead of letting Florida go first and potentially either clinch it for Romney or whittle it down to Romney and some candidate who has no shot in Nevada.



Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on October 21, 2011, 02:59:06 pm
Every indication is that Nevada is going to move to Feb. 4 on Saturday, but we still have to wait and see to be sure.

Also, in Ohio, the state senate has passed a bill that would move the primary there to June 12:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/ohio-senate-passes-bill-creating.html

The extra time gives them more time to sort out the redistricting mess.

State with primary dates still in flux:

Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio


I know you've probably mentioned this before, but if Nevada goes go back to February 4 do you think New Hampshire would then fill in the January 10 slot, because of the 7-day rule, or would they ignore that rule and go to January 17 with Iowa possibly moving back to January 10?

South Carolina is January 21st so NH would look insane to move to the 17th after the whole NV fiasco.  What I don't understand is why Nevada doesn't move to January 17, 24 or 28 instead of letting Florida go first and potentially either clinch it for Romney or whittle it down to Romney and some candidate who has no shot in Nevada.



That's what I thought, and I agree with you on Nevada.  Nevada could be relegating itself to playing mop up duty by going February 4.  It will be kind of like when the backup quarterback comes in with 3 or 4 minutes to go with the game already out of reach in their favor.  The backup is playing mop up duty.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 21, 2011, 04:25:31 pm
I know you've probably mentioned this before, but if Nevada goes go back to February 4 do you think New Hampshire would then fill in the January 10 slot, because of the 7-day rule, or would they ignore that rule and go to January 17 with Iowa possibly moving back to January 10?

The whole point of NH pressuring NV to move later was so that NH could go on Jan. 10, because they have the 7-day rule, and they want to go on a Tuesday.  How could they now ignore the 7-day rule, and go on the 17th?  That doesn't make any sense.

South Carolina is January 21st so NH would look insane to move to the 17th after the whole NV fiasco.  What I don't understand is why Nevada doesn't move to January 17, 24 or 28 instead of letting Florida go first and potentially either clinch it for Romney or whittle it down to Romney and some candidate who has no shot in Nevada.

They say that running the caucus on a weekday is too logistically difficult, because many of their caucus sites will be in use.  And if they're going to go later, they'd like to keep all their delegates.  By going in February, they can keep all their delegates.  Any caucus date in January means losing half their delegates.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on October 21, 2011, 08:52:24 pm
I know you've probably mentioned this before, but if Nevada goes go back to February 4 do you think New Hampshire would then fill in the January 10 slot, because of the 7-day rule, or would they ignore that rule and go to January 17 with Iowa possibly moving back to January 10?

The whole point of NH pressuring NV to move later was so that NH could go on Jan. 10, because they have the 7-day rule, and they want to go on a Tuesday.  How could they now ignore the 7-day rule, and go on the 17th?  That doesn't make any sense.


That's what I thought.  I just wanted to make sure.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 21, 2011, 11:54:22 pm
Assuming that Nevada moves to Feb. 4 and NH moves to Jan. 10 as expected, the early primary calendar will then look like this:

Tue, Jan. 3: IA caucus
Tue, Jan. 10: NH primary
Sat, Jan. 21: SC primary
Tue, Jan. 31: FL primary

Sat, Feb. 4: NV caucus
Sat, Feb. 4 - Sat, Feb. 11: ME caucus
Tue, Feb. 7: CO and MN caucuses
Tue, Feb. 28: AZ and MI primaries

Sat, Mar. 3: WA caucus
Tue, Mar. 6: Super Tuesday

Again, it'll be interesting to see if that three week gap in February means that any early momentum dies out and the campaign resets.  Granted, probably only about three candidates will still be in the race by then.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on October 22, 2011, 08:50:56 am
What do you think the importance of Super Tuesday will be?  Will the nominee largely be decided then, or with the three week gap in February be enough to make March 6 a huge day?  I do agree that we'll likely be down to 3, maybe 4, candidates by the end of February, so that could possibly give the winner a larger slice of the delegate pie.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 22, 2011, 10:38:48 am
The 11-day gap between NH and SC will also be VERY interesting. Especially if we take under consideration the latter's reputation for dirty campaigning.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: cavalcade on October 22, 2011, 11:05:03 am
Assuming that Nevada moves to Feb. 4 and NH moves to Jan. 10 as expected, the early primary calendar will then look like this:

Tue, Jan. 3: IA caucus
Tue, Jan. 10: NH primary
Sat, Jan. 21: SC primary
Tue, Jan. 31: FL primary

Sat, Feb. 4: NV caucus
Sat, Feb. 4 - Sat, Feb. 11: ME caucus
Tue, Feb. 7: CO and MN caucuses
Tue, Feb. 28: AZ and MI primaries

Sat, Mar. 3: WA caucus
Tue, Mar. 6: Super Tuesday


I would rather see NV and FL switched, and obviously everything shifted back a couple weeks, but this would be a pretty good calendar considering the crazy alternatives that have been made possible.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on October 22, 2011, 01:41:19 pm
February 4 it is for Nevada, according to Politico.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 22, 2011, 02:37:07 pm
Nevada GOP moves caucuses to Feb. 4:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/22/nevada-g-o-p-relents-on-early-primary/

and Ohio moves its primary to June 12:

http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/ohio-news/ohio-house-agrees-to-push-presidential-primary-1272473.html

thereby making Super Tuesday even more heavily Southern.  I've updated the calendar in the OP.

The only state left to declare their date is New Hampshire, but there's a ~99% chance that they'll be on Jan. 10.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on October 22, 2011, 03:38:02 pm
Nevada GOP moves caucuses to Feb. 4:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/22/nevada-g-o-p-relents-on-early-primary/

and Ohio moves its primary to June 12:

http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/ohio-news/ohio-house-agrees-to-push-presidential-primary-1272473.html

thereby making Super Tuesday even more heavily Southern.  I've updated the calendar in the OP.

The only state left to declare their date is New Hampshire, but there's a ~99% chance that they'll be on Jan. 10.


I like this calendar better than I do having New Hampshire in early-mid December.  Having one that early when the rest are not until January, February, and March seems like a waste of a primary to me.  Plus, it would have been very sad to see New Hampshire campaigning over the Thanksgiving Holiday.  We're used to Christmas/New Years campaigning in Iowa thanks to the 2008 cycle, but Thanksgiving is just way too early, and again, a waste of a good primary day.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Chris B on October 22, 2011, 11:49:13 pm
The move can't help Romney. If only since he wont have as much momentum going into Florida with only a win in NH, unless he can pull it off in Iowa and/or SC.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: cavalcade on October 23, 2011, 11:45:51 am
Nevada GOP moves caucuses to Feb. 4:

Don't mess with New Hampshire.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 25, 2011, 04:16:40 am
Fred Karger says that if Florida doesn't move its primary to a later date, he'll boycott Florida orange juice:

http://www.unionleader.com/article/20111025/LOCALVOICES/710259991

Quote
"If by Tuesday, Nov. 1, Florida has not agreed to move its primary back to its original date in March 2012, I will officially launch a nationwide boycott of Florida orange juice. We own the domain name www.BoycottFloridaOrangeJuice.com, have begun developing this web site and have the ticking orange on our logo."

There is actually no mechanism for Florida to change its primary date again even if it wanted to, as the legislature isn't going to meet in time for it to happen.  So I guess Karger is going to boycott Florida orange juice.

Meanwhile, it looks like Florida is not only going earlier than the RNC rules call for, but they'll stick with a statewide WTA allocation of their delegates, which also violates RNC rules:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/os-presidential-campaigns-in-florida-20111024,0,1721196.story

But the RNC is not going to give them any additional punishment, because there actually is no provision in the RNC rules for penalty harsher than the 50% delegate penalty that they're already getting.  Arizona may also end up sticking with its statewide WTA rule, since it's also going to lose half its delegates for going early anyway.

It's unclear if this means that the RNC won't enforce the proportionality rules at all, or if this is just a loophole for the states that are already losing half their delegates for going early.  For many states, it might actually be worth it to take a 50% delegate penalty in exchange for doing statewide WTA.  Unclear how many will do this.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on October 25, 2011, 10:02:49 am
Your loss, Karger.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: A-Bob on October 25, 2011, 06:51:35 pm
Your loss, Karger.
^

If anyone took him seriously they should see how screwed up he is. Why would he strive to destroy an economy to punish a political party picking a date for their state?

lol


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 26, 2011, 05:54:59 am
I swear, if I hear "Florida single-handedly screwed up the primary calendar" one more time, I'm going to scream.

Look, if Florida had gone with a much later date, then Iowa would have gone just one week later, or *possibly* two weeks later than its currently scheduled January 3.  That's it.  Not a month later.  Iowa in February was never going to happen, because several other states were already going to be in February anyway, and IA/NH/NV/SC were going to jump them.  Colorado and Minnesota caucuses on Feb. 7 means that the primaries were inevitably going to start in the first half of January.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on October 29, 2011, 01:54:28 pm
When is New Hampshire supposed to decide on a date, thus completing the calendar?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 29, 2011, 04:19:25 pm
From a couple of days ago:

http://twitter.com/#!/JamesPindell/status/128862520931909632

Quote
Release: Gardner will announce the date of the New Hampshire Presidential Primary next week after the filing period has ended.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on October 29, 2011, 05:38:45 pm
From a couple of days ago:

http://twitter.com/#!/JamesPindell/status/128862520931909632

Quote
Release: Gardner will announce the date of the New Hampshire Presidential Primary next week after the filing period has ended.


Okay, that's what I thought, I just know how loosely a time frame can be kept.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 01, 2011, 05:05:53 am
Gardner will apparently set the NH primary date on Wednesday morning:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/gardner-to-set-new-hampshire-primary.html


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on November 01, 2011, 11:03:13 am
According to the article you posted, it looks like January 10 will indeed be chosen for the first-in-the-nation primary.  This puts the nominating season starting in just 9 weeks from today with the Iowa Caucuses on Tuesday, January 3, 2012.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on November 02, 2011, 10:28:20 am
According to the Associated Press, Gardner has officially set the New Hampshire primary for Tuesday, January 10, 2012.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/02/breaking-new-hampshire-primary-date-set/


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 02, 2011, 04:18:14 pm
NH to Jan. 10.  The calendar in the OP has been updated.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on November 02, 2011, 07:18:49 pm
Gentlemen, your work here is completed!


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on November 02, 2011, 08:06:49 pm
We can officially begin the countdown to the nominating season!! Iowa is just 2 months from tomorrow. :)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 06, 2011, 02:04:31 am
It's not necessarily over.  There's still talk of possible primary date moves in both Massachusetts and Ohio:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/in-massachusetts-talk-of-primary.html

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/11/ohio-presidential-primary-back-to-march.html

But the pre-Super Tuesday calendar seems to be set.  I'll also add the dates for US territories when I get a chance.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on November 06, 2011, 08:14:30 pm
It's not necessarily over.  There's still talk of possible primary date moves in both Massachusetts and Ohio:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/in-massachusetts-talk-of-primary.html

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/11/ohio-presidential-primary-back-to-march.html

But the pre-Super Tuesday calendar seems to be set.  I'll also add the dates for US territories when I get a chance.


Ohio and Massachusetts are really immaterial right now.  We've got a half dozen states or more before Super Tuesday.  January looks like a fun month before a 3-week February break.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: NVGonzalez on November 06, 2011, 08:16:33 pm
I though Ohio had already decided March 6.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: RI on November 06, 2011, 08:17:44 pm
I though Ohio had already decided March 6.

They've since changed it to June to align with the other statewide primaries and to give them time to pass the map for the new districts.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Nice Guy FF on November 06, 2011, 11:24:17 pm
The debate line-ups are getting boring. When is someone going to drop out?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: True Federalist on November 07, 2011, 12:36:24 am
The debate line-ups are getting boring. When is someone going to drop out?

At this point, not until after Iowa at the earliest, and probably not until after New Hampshire.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on November 07, 2011, 10:07:51 pm
...and magic makes it all complete!


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on November 12, 2011, 03:39:42 pm
52 days until Iowa - 51 if you don't count today.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: King on November 12, 2011, 09:54:46 pm
Bushie, please stop keeping track when January 3rd is.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: RI on November 13, 2011, 12:46:09 am
It's only 9 days after Christmas. He could countdown to that instead.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: True Federalist on November 15, 2011, 08:40:42 pm
It's still too soon to say the calendar is set in stone.  The case concerning how the South Carolina primary is to be paid for (and by whom) was heard at our Supreme Court yesterday.  Chief Justice Toal was skeptical of the counties' claims, but Associate Justice Beatty was appreciative. While I think the plaintiffs will be unsuccessful, if the GOP has to conduct the primary itself and use paper ballots, then it is possible that the primary could be delayed since the change requires DOJ clearance.


article in The State (http://www.thestate.com/2011/11/14/2046381/who-should-pay-for-scs-republican.html)

(http://www.sccourts.org/judges/photos/supreme/1118photo1.jpg)
Chief Justice Toal
(http://www.sccourts.org/judges/photos/supreme/1134photo1.jpg)
Associate Justice Beatty


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 27, 2011, 04:11:51 am
I've mentioned before that the new RNC rules imposing PR on the early states are really imposing "faux-PR".  It's not really proportional.  But it is clearly meant to be something other than pure statewide WTA.

But I've also mentioned how it's not clear whether the RNC is really going to enforce that rule or not.  This op/ed in Politico asks whether the RNC is actually going to enforce that rule at all:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/69048.html

And in fact, it questions whether the RNC rules even allow for them to enforce the rule.  Have they made a rule that without an enforcement mechanism for breaking it?

The op/ed gets a few details wrong, but if I'm reading the situation correctly, it sounds like a slew of states that either use WTA or open primaries may end up facing credentials challenges at the convention, *if* anyone there actually tried to challenge them (which probably won't happen).  Or perhaps they can become delegates, but they're technically "unpledged", and don't really have to vote for the candidate who won their primary (though they presumably would vote for the presumptive nominee, assuming there is a presumptive nominee).

Bottom line, this may mean nothing if, like every other presidential primary contest for the last 30+ years, there is a presumptive nominee at the end of the primary voting process.  But in the unlikely event that there's a brokered convention scenario, then the RNC may have invited legal armageddon over its attempt to revise its delegate selection rules without more clearly delineating the enforcement mechanism.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 09, 2011, 04:34:44 am
Added Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, and Virgin Islands caucuses to the calendar (all in March).  I don't know when Northern Mariana votes.

Also, remarkably, Ohio might move its presidential primary yet again.  This time, perhaps to April 24, to coincide with NY, PA, and other contiguous states:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/12/dont-necessarily-get-to-used-to-idea-of.html

Not clear that anything will get decided on that until next month, which would mark a rare time when the primaries have already started while a state in the later part of the calendar is moving its date around.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 09, 2011, 04:41:17 am
If any of you are still dreaming of a late entry into the race, here's a list of the filing deadlines:

(http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/content/images/FRC2011120801-chart2.png)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on December 09, 2011, 10:46:51 pm
The biggest prize on Super Tuesday may be delayed.  Texas had scheduled the presidential primary for the same day as other state primaries but with the Supreme Court staying the Congressional and state legislative redistricting maps it looks certain that those primaries will be postponed. Will Texas hold 2 primaries or will they postpone the presidential primary to?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 09, 2011, 11:02:59 pm
The biggest prize on Super Tuesday may be delayed.  Texas had scheduled the presidential primary for the same day as other state primaries but with the Supreme Court staying the Congressional and state legislative redistricting maps it looks certain that those primaries will be postponed. Will Texas hold 2 primaries or will they postpone the presidential primary to?

Yeah, I just read about that.  This story suggests that the congressional and legislative primaries will be delayed until May:

http://www.chron.com/news/local_news/article/Supreme-Court-temporarily-blocks-interim-2393236.php

though perhaps other primaries will remain in March.  But the presidential primary delegate allocation is largely based on the results in congressional districts, so it's unclear how this is going to work if there are no congressional districts in place at the time of the primary.

Oh, and if Texas does move later, then Gingrich's home state of Georgia will be the biggest remaining delegate prize on Super Tuesday.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 09, 2011, 11:10:12 pm
Maybe Texas should actually move to June 5th, and join CA, MT, NJ, NM, and SD.  That would actually make June 5th the new Super Tuesday, as it would supplant March 6th as the day when the most delegates are decided, and the most people vote.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on December 09, 2011, 11:18:31 pm
Maybe Texas should actually move to June 5th, and join CA, MT, NJ, NM, and SD.  That would actually make June 5th the new Super Tuesday, as it would supplant March 6th as the day when the most delegates are decided, and the most people vote.


The way the schedule is shaping up I think it could lead to a long drawn out primary fight. There will be a lot of delegates available in April, May and June, many in winner take all states (either by state or CD).  There will be plenty of chances for a candidate who falls behind early in the process to catch up.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on December 10, 2011, 07:35:58 am
As it stands right now, and this is a bit suprising given our competition, but Oklahoma is the 5th biggest prize on the current Super Tuesday, March 6.  We even beat out bigger states such as Massachusetts.  I believe the only states that are bigger prizes than the Sooner State are Texas, Georgia, Virginia, and Tennessee.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 10, 2011, 04:33:38 pm
This article suggests that the new date being eyed for Texas's primary is May 22:

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-redistricting/redistricting/supreme-court-freezes-texas-elections/

But it also suggests that that might just be for congressional and legislative primaries, while the presidential and senate primaries remain in March.  But as I said yesterday, about 2/3rds of Texas's delegates to the RNC are allocated at the congressional district level.  So how are you going to have a presidential primary without knowing what the congressional district boundaries are?

Granted, the Texas GOP could simply change the state's delegate allocation rules so that it's 100% based on the statewide result.  But you'd still be left with the question of whether the state actually wants to pay for two primaries.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on December 12, 2011, 09:17:29 pm
This article suggests that the new date being eyed for Texas's primary is May 22:

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-redistricting/redistricting/supreme-court-freezes-texas-elections/

But it also suggests that that might just be for congressional and legislative primaries, while the presidential and senate primaries remain in March.  But as I said yesterday, about 2/3rds of Texas's delegates to the RNC are allocated at the congressional district level.  So how are you going to have a presidential primary without knowing what the congressional district boundaries are?

Granted, the Texas GOP could simply change the state's delegate allocation rules so that it's 100% based on the statewide result.  But you'd still be left with the question of whether the state actually wants to pay for two primaries.


It looks Like the TX Republican party already had changed their delegate allocation rules to a proportional system based on the statewide vote.

http://blogs.star-telegram.com/politex/2011/10/texas-republican-party-changes-primary-plan-to-comply-with-rnc-hopes-it-was-worth-it.html


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 14, 2011, 01:50:55 am
Yes, apparently the Texas GOP wants to keep the presidential primary in March, even if legislative primaries are delayed until May.  However, local election officials don't want to have to do two separate primaries.  A federal judge will probably decide this within the next few days.

Meanwhile, a bill's been introduced in the Ohio legislature to move its primary up to May:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/12/bill-introduced-in-ohio-house-to-create.html

So we're three weeks away from Iowa, and two of the biggest delegate prizes (Texas and Ohio) still haven't definitively sorted out when they're going to hold their primaries.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 14, 2011, 05:15:14 pm
What the heck is going on in Ohio?  The primary had previously been scheduled for March 6 (Super Tuesday).  Then the legislature delayed it until June, because the thinking was that redistricting wouldn't be done in time.  Now it looks like the two parties have struck some kind of deal on redistricting, that will also bring the primary forward back to March 6:

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2011/12/14/dems-gop-decide-on-single-march-primary-in-2012.html

But according to FHQ on Twitter, the current version of the legislation being considered would make the presidential primary filing deadline revert to Dec. 7 (which we've already passed):

http://twitter.com/#!/FHQ/status/147049224469614592

Only Gingrich, Perry, and Romney are already on the Ohio ballot.  The rest of the candidates haven't filed yet, because they were assuming that there was indeed going to be a June primary with the later deadline, so there was no rush to file now.  If this passes in its current form, then Bachmann, Huntsman, Paul, Santorum, Johnson, Roemer, etc. would all have to run as write-in candidates.

Surely, they'll fix this before voting on this legislation, right?  Or does anyone want to offer any conspiracy theories about depriving Paul of delegates?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 14, 2011, 06:28:02 pm
On the other hand, this article says Ohio is still headed towards a unified primary in May:

http://www2.ohiovotes2011.com/news/2011/dec/14/swing-state-ohio-set-2012-primary-may-ar-863464/

Still confused about what's actually going on.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: jimrtex on December 16, 2011, 03:49:34 am
On the other hand, this article says Ohio is still headed towards a unified primary in May:

http://www2.ohiovotes2011.com/news/2011/dec/14/swing-state-ohio-set-2012-primary-may-ar-863464/

Still confused about what's actually going on.

The bill that passed, HB 369 set new congressional districts, and combined the primary on March 6.   For all offices that had been scheduled for March 6, the filing deadline was left at December 7.

For congress, and president, and president delegates, a December 30 deadline was set; and any previous filings are discarded.

In Ohio, delegates are actually elected in the primary, and the election is done by congressional district.  When a delegate candidate files, he lists the name of his favored two presidential candidates (with their permission), and then the candidate ranks all the delegates who favored him.  So when delegates are apportioned by presidential candidate, there is a list of delegates that these are picked off of.

I assume in practice, the presidential candidates pick their delegates and help them get their signatures to get on the ballot. Since delegates (and indirectly presidential candidates) quality by congressional district, a presidential candidate might not be on the ballot statewide.  I think Gingrich had failed to qualify statewide, and this was cited as a failure of his organization, but now he can fix that.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: jimrtex on December 16, 2011, 02:05:58 pm
This article suggests that the new date being eyed for Texas's primary is May 22:

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-redistricting/redistricting/supreme-court-freezes-texas-elections/

But it also suggests that that might just be for congressional and legislative primaries, while the presidential and senate primaries remain in March.  But as I said yesterday, about 2/3rds of Texas's delegates to the RNC are allocated at the congressional district level.  So how are you going to have a presidential primary without knowing what the congressional district boundaries are?

Granted, the Texas GOP could simply change the state's delegate allocation rules so that it's 100% based on the statewide result.  But you'd still be left with the question of whether the state actually wants to pay for two primaries.

Texas law does not specify how delegates are selected.  It requires that 75% of delegates be chosen "based" on the primary results ("based on" includes winner take all).  Democrats use senatorial districts; Republicans use congressional districts, but in both cases, it is simply a matter of which election precincts are tabulated.  There are no delegates actually selected in the primary, the selection in June is based on the March results.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: jimrtex on December 16, 2011, 08:13:51 pm
Texas = April 3, IF there are congressional and legislative districts before February 1st.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Badger on December 16, 2011, 09:15:33 pm
On the other hand, this article says Ohio is still headed towards a unified primary in May:

http://www2.ohiovotes2011.com/news/2011/dec/14/swing-state-ohio-set-2012-primary-may-ar-863464/

Still confused about what's actually going on.


this is the version I hear is most likely to occur. A May primary was traditional until recent elections, and no one wants to spend on two primary elections so long as a redistricting deal is reached.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: jimrtex on December 17, 2011, 02:18:59 am
On the other hand, this article says Ohio is still headed towards a unified primary in May:

http://www2.ohiovotes2011.com/news/2011/dec/14/swing-state-ohio-set-2012-primary-may-ar-863464/

Still confused about what's actually going on.


this is the version I hear is most likely to occur. A May primary was traditional until recent elections, and no one wants to spend on two primary elections so long as a redistricting deal is reached.

That article is like so December 14th.  You've got to move into the modern era.

http://www2.ohiovotes2011.com/news/2011/dec/15/ohio-governor-signs-march-6-primary-date-law-ar-865288/


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 17, 2011, 10:56:40 am
On the other hand, this article says Ohio is still headed towards a unified primary in May:

http://www2.ohiovotes2011.com/news/2011/dec/14/swing-state-ohio-set-2012-primary-may-ar-863464/

Still confused about what's actually going on.


this is the version I hear is most likely to occur. A May primary was traditional until recent elections, and no one wants to spend on two primary elections so long as a redistricting deal is reached.

That article is like so December 14th.  You've got to move into the modern era.

http://www2.ohiovotes2011.com/news/2011/dec/15/ohio-governor-signs-march-6-primary-date-law-ar-865288/

Correct, Kasich has signed the bill to move the Ohio primary to March 6, and the courts have OK'ed the deal between the two parties in Texas to move the Texas primary to April 3:

http://www.chron.com/news/local_news/article/Republicans-Democrats-cut-deal-on-primary-date-2408283.php

I've updated the calendar in the OP.  I guess we'll have to wait and see whether the primary calendar is now "done", or if there's going to be any other movement.

Also, Georgia is now the biggest delegate prize on Super Tuesday, though Ohio is the Super Tuesday state with the largest population.  Georgia has more delegates, because the RNC rewards states based on "party strength".  That is, states that are more Republican will get more delegates.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on December 17, 2011, 11:20:56 am
Mr. Morden:

The Northern Marianas Commonwealth Convention on Feb. 25 is missing in your calendar.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on December 19, 2011, 10:47:23 am
Everyday I'm shuffling.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 23, 2011, 12:02:14 pm
Mr. Morden:

The Northern Marianas Commonwealth Convention on Feb. 25 is missing in your calendar.

The Green Papers lists that date for Northern Marianas, but the note they attach basically says "We don't know when this is going to be, but our default assumption is that it'll be the same time as last year."  Is there some other definitive source that lists the Feb. 25 date?  Just want to double check on that.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 13, 2012, 02:22:58 pm
Should I un-sticky this?  We're basically done with the calendar.  Nothing's happened in the last few weeks.

When I started this, the primary calendar was hard to find, but now it's posted all over the place, including Wikipedia.  Or is it really convenient to have the primary calendar handy like this?  I guess I could always ask Erc to post a copy of the calendar in the first post of his delegate counting thread?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on January 14, 2012, 10:08:57 pm
It's handy for me, so I say keep it stickied, at least through Florida.  Just another two weeks (+ change).


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: RI on January 17, 2012, 09:48:27 pm
Apparently the Louisiana caucus was moved back to April 28. :( :( Jindal apparently wants a spot in the Romney administration.

http://www.theind.com/news/9739-la-gop-sets-april-caucus (http://www.theind.com/news/9739-la-gop-sets-april-caucus)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on January 18, 2012, 09:54:13 am
I vote to keep it up for several months longer, maybe through the conventions.  I would also add to the OP the Convention Dates and Sites, the beginning of Mail-in balloting for the states that vote by mail, Election Day, and Inauguaration Day (not that political junkies don't know the last two dates, but just to complete the cycle).  You might change the name to 2012 Presidential Election Calendar, instead of just focusing solely on the Primaries.

I use the OP quite a bit to figure out which primary comes at what date and I would use it also for planning for the dates listed above.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 18, 2012, 10:38:34 am
Apparently the Louisiana caucus was moved back to April 28. :( :( Jindal apparently wants a spot in the Romney administration.

http://www.theind.com/news/9739-la-gop-sets-april-caucus (http://www.theind.com/news/9739-la-gop-sets-april-caucus)

Will their March primary still be held or is it replaced with the April caucus ?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: RI on January 18, 2012, 11:15:10 am
Apparently the Louisiana caucus was moved back to April 28. :( :( Jindal apparently wants a spot in the Romney administration.

http://www.theind.com/news/9739-la-gop-sets-april-caucus (http://www.theind.com/news/9739-la-gop-sets-april-caucus)

Will their March primary still be held or is it replaced with the April caucus ?

They're having both.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on January 25, 2012, 06:01:18 pm
It seems the Maine caucuses are actually beginning this weekend: http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/01/maine-gop-begins-caucusing-saturday.html


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 27, 2012, 09:38:52 pm
There could still be further primary calendar movement.  The Texas primary was pushed back from the original March date because of the redistricting mess, and the courts may push it back again because the redistricting mess isn't settled:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/federal-court-says-april-3-primary-in-texas-still-possible-if-compromise-reached-by-feb-6/2012/01/27/gIQAHKSWWQ_story.html

That article suggests a possible new date of April 17, but some of the discussion I read about this on Twitter suggested it may be pushed back to May.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 31, 2012, 05:13:41 am
Here's the rundown on filing deadlines and the number of states where you can vote "Uncommitted" or write in a name:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2012/01/ill-see-your-white-knight-and-raise-you.html

Just in case any of you are still holding onto the hope of a late entry.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 06, 2012, 04:04:26 am
The courts might delay the Texas primary again, to possibly as late as June, if there's no compromise on the redistricting boundaries agreed to by today:

http://keranews.org/post/april-3-primary-depends-deadline-today

Quote
Today is the deadline for opposing sides to agree on Texas election maps. Without an agreement federal judges in San Antonio have said the April 3 primary elections will be delayed again. KERA’s Shelley Kofler says that could further diminish Texas’ role in the presidential election.

Texas Republicans had hoped the state’s March 6 primary would come early enough so they’d have a big “say” in choosing the GOP presidential nominee. But a legal dispute over election boundaries has pushed the Texas primary back to April 3. Now federal judges have said they will delay the primary further if republican lawmakers who drew the state’s maps don’t reach an agreement today with minority groups and Democrats.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: RI on February 06, 2012, 03:37:21 pm
The courts might delay the Texas primary again, to possibly as late as June, if there's no compromise on the redistricting boundaries agreed to by today:

http://keranews.org/post/april-3-primary-depends-deadline-today

Quote
Today is the deadline for opposing sides to agree on Texas election maps. Without an agreement federal judges in San Antonio have said the April 3 primary elections will be delayed again. KERA’s Shelley Kofler says that could further diminish Texas’ role in the presidential election.

Texas Republicans had hoped the state’s March 6 primary would come early enough so they’d have a big “say” in choosing the GOP presidential nominee. But a legal dispute over election boundaries has pushed the Texas primary back to April 3. Now federal judges have said they will delay the primary further if republican lawmakers who drew the state’s maps don’t reach an agreement today with minority groups and Democrats.


A deal was struck to keep the Texas primary on April 3.

http://blogs.star-telegram.com/politex/2012/02/texas-ag-agrees-to-temporary-map-to-keep-april-3-state-primary-ap-reports.html (http://blogs.star-telegram.com/politex/2012/02/texas-ag-agrees-to-temporary-map-to-keep-april-3-state-primary-ap-reports.html)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 07, 2012, 05:30:15 am
Actually, the deal has fallen apart, and it looks like we're going to have a later primary in Texas:

link (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jn37p4c3oQsklYwoPxPEMWaY2PLw?docId=d287f91a16cf4503bd27c24fd7ed61d4)

Quote
Texas is all but certain to have an even later say in choosing the Republican presidential nominee after what at first looked like a breakthrough deal in a bitter dispute over redistricting maps ended with wide rejection of the proposal.

That left the date of the Texas primaries in limbo Tuesday, a day after a court-imposed deadline for the state and minority advocacy groups to compromise came and went without temporary maps that everyone could agree on for the 2012 elections.

A San Antonio federal court had told both sides to reach a deal by Monday or see the April 3 primary date pushed back a second time. The Texas attorney general's office appeared to hit the deadline by announcing an agreement with some of the groups, but that was soon overshadowed by other prominent black and Hispanic organizations blasting the deal.

The court also appeared to reject the partial deal, as U.S. District Judge Orlando Garcia urged talks to continue toward "a general agreement between all" parties.

Also, the redistricting battle in Pennsylvania may end up pushing the primary later there as well:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2012/02/pennsylvania-presidential-primary-on.html


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on February 07, 2012, 12:31:07 pm
So the real Super Tuesday is going to be in June then most likely. Hilarious.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 09, 2012, 05:37:04 am
Nothing new on Texas.  While they missed the nominal deadline on the compromise map, it's not clear that the court is going to do anything about setting a new date for the primary until next week.  So we'll wait to see what happens.

I removed Guam from the calendar in the OP, because it looks like the supposed date of the caucuses there wasn't official.  It's still unclear when it'll happen.  But Northern Marianas will select their delegates at a convention on March 10:

http://www.saipantribune.com/newsstory.aspx?cat=1&newsID=116333

so I've added that to the calendar.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 12, 2012, 04:06:45 am
So it looks like the judge in the redistricting case in Texas is pushing hard to get a compromise map done quickly.  (Hearings on this will be held this week, on the 14th and 15th.)  This could result in the primary staying in April, but possibly delayed until the 17th or 24th.

http://www.texasgopvote.com/2012-elections/redistricting-update-viii-court-wants-april-primary-003847


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on February 14, 2012, 11:41:33 pm
Looks like the earliest the Texas primary will be is May 22, maybe as late as June 26.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_TEXAS_REDISTRICTING?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 15, 2012, 03:56:42 pm
One of the 3 judges on the case says that it's likely the court will delay the primary until May 29, but nothing official yet:

http://www.ballot-access.org/2012/02/15/san-antonio-3-judge-panel-suggests-that-texas-primary-will-be-may-29/


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 18, 2012, 02:28:31 pm
I've updated the calendar in the OP to list Texas as TBD, since it's now obvious that the primary won't happen on April 3.  The 3 judge panel has said as much, but hasn't set a new date yet.  They claim that the earliest realistic date is May 29th, but it might go to June.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: RI on February 25, 2012, 03:52:16 pm
I don't know if anyone's noted this yet or not, but the Missouri caucuses actually are taking place from March 15 to March 24, with the majority of the counties voting on March 17. St. Louis County and Jackson County (Kansas City) are both voting on March 24.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Erc on February 25, 2012, 07:40:42 pm
The Texas GOP is apparently close to giving up on the primaries and running its own County Conventions on April 14 or April 21.  The plan will be voted on by the State Republican Executive Committee this upcoming Wednesday.

http://hardincountyconservatives.blogspot.com/p/texas-gop-draft-plan-temporary-and.html (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/TX-R)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on February 25, 2012, 08:58:39 pm
I'm sure that will be run smoothly with little delay or controversy.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 29, 2012, 06:17:44 am
The courts have issued compromise maps in Texas that will likely allow the primary to go forward on May 29, though not official yet:

http://azstarnet.com/news/national/federal-court-issues-new-political-maps-saving-texas-primary/article_ef735481-8611-5780-8c6d-efa213f1d217.html

Looks like the GOP is OK with the maps, but the Dems are less happy.  But as of yet, there's no indication that the coalition of minority rights groups will try for another appeal.  If they don't, then it looks like the May 29 primary would go forward.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on February 29, 2012, 03:28:13 pm
According to Wikipedia [citation needed] Ohio is a "semi-closed" primary.  Is that true, and if so, what does that mean?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on February 29, 2012, 08:34:51 pm
If Texas does move to May 29, the Republican race could still be in flux by then, which means the two biggest prizes in any contest will vote just a week apart, Texas on May 29 and California on June 5.  How interesting...


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tidewater_Wave on February 29, 2012, 09:05:33 pm
I'm all for states doing whatever they want in these types of situations, but I would like to see the Ohio plan adopted by the GOP.  It would give less wealthy candidates a chance and still mandate that larger states have more pull.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: True Federalist on February 29, 2012, 09:07:59 pm
According to Wikipedia [citation needed] Ohio is a "semi-closed" primary.  Is that true, and if so, what does that mean?

It's a "closed" primary in the sense that only registered Republicans can vote in it, but if a non-Republican shows up and asks for a ballot they get one as their party registration will be changed to Republican.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tidewater_Wave on February 29, 2012, 09:15:58 pm
According to Wikipedia [citation needed] Ohio is a "semi-closed" primary.  Is that true, and if so, what does that mean?

It's a "closed" primary in the sense that only registered Republicans can vote in it, but if a non-Republican shows up and asks for a ballot they get one as their party registration will be changed to Republican.
[/quote

That's another thing I can't stand along with early voting. Republicans should vote in the GOP primary and Democrats should vote in their primary. Independents must wait until election day. This prevents people from rigging each other's primaries. I know states should decide most things, but in this case I'm actually considering favoring the federal government being involved.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: True Federalist on March 01, 2012, 12:29:51 am
That's another thing I can't stand along with early voting. Republicans should vote in the GOP primary and Democrats should vote in their primary. Independents must wait until election day. This prevents people from rigging each other's primaries. I know states should decide most things, but in this case I'm actually considering favoring the federal government being involved.

If the parties want to control who selects their candidates, they need to start paying for their primaries themselves instead of having the taxpayers foot the bill.  So long as this independent taxpayer is being forced to pay for the political activities of the major parties, then the parties will just have to put up with me voting in their primaries.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tidewater_Wave on March 01, 2012, 12:59:19 am
That's another thing I can't stand along with early voting. Republicans should vote in the GOP primary and Democrats should vote in their primary. Independents must wait until election day. This prevents people from rigging each other's primaries. I know states should decide most things, but in this case I'm actually considering favoring the federal government being involved.

If the parties want to control who selects their candidates, they need to start paying for their primaries themselves instead of having the taxpayers foot the bill.  So long as this independent taxpayer is being forced to pay for the political activities of the major parties, then the parties will just have to put up with me voting in their primaries.

I think the parties should pay for their primaries 100%. I'm completely against alot of soft money too but that's a different story lol.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Erc on March 01, 2012, 01:15:32 am
The Texas GOP is apparently close to giving up on the primaries and running its own County Conventions on April 14 or April 21.  The plan will be voted on by the State Republican Executive Committee this upcoming Wednesday.

http://hardincountyconservatives.blogspot.com/p/texas-gop-draft-plan-temporary-and.html (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/TX-R)

The Texas GOP appears to have approved the change (http://hardincountyconservatives.blogspot.com/2012/02/new-rpt-2012-temporaryemergency-rule.html), but it seems I overstated the vastness of the change earlier.

The delegates will still be bound based on the results of the primary (and the allocations of bindings are proportional).  The delegates are still bound for up to three ballots; they will not even be polled on the first ballot.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 01, 2012, 02:40:38 am
The Texas GOP is apparently close to giving up on the primaries and running its own County Conventions on April 14 or April 21.  The plan will be voted on by the State Republican Executive Committee this upcoming Wednesday.

http://hardincountyconservatives.blogspot.com/p/texas-gop-draft-plan-temporary-and.html (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/TX-R)

The Texas GOP appears to have approved the change (http://hardincountyconservatives.blogspot.com/2012/02/new-rpt-2012-temporaryemergency-rule.html), but it seems I overstated the vastness of the change earlier.

The delegates will still be bound based on the results of the primary (and the allocations of bindings are proportional).  The delegates are still bound for up to three ballots; they will not even be polled on the first ballot.

Sorry, can you clarify this?  Are you saying that the delegates will be chosen in April, but then their vote at the RNC will be bound by the results of the primary, which isn't until May or June?


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Erc on March 01, 2012, 01:11:04 pm
The Texas GOP is apparently close to giving up on the primaries and running its own County Conventions on April 14 or April 21.  The plan will be voted on by the State Republican Executive Committee this upcoming Wednesday.

http://hardincountyconservatives.blogspot.com/p/texas-gop-draft-plan-temporary-and.html (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/TX-R)

The Texas GOP appears to have approved the change (http://hardincountyconservatives.blogspot.com/2012/02/new-rpt-2012-temporaryemergency-rule.html), but it seems I overstated the vastness of the change earlier.

The delegates will still be bound based on the results of the primary (and the allocations of bindings are proportional).  The delegates are still bound for up to three ballots; they will not even be polled on the first ballot.

Sorry, can you clarify this?  Are you saying that the delegates will be chosen in April, but then their vote at the RNC will be bound by the results of the primary, which isn't until May or June?


Sorry.  There will be district conventions in April, which choose delegates to the State Convention.  The State Convention (as a whole or by districts) chooses the delegates to Tampa.  These delegates need not be vetted or approved by any campaign.

The State Chairman then assigns each delegate a candidate they are bound to based on the results of the primary (each candidate gets a number of delegates directly proportional to the statewide vote). 

This allocation of delegates will be what Texas reports as its vote for the first ballot (the delegates are not even polled), unless the candidate decides to release them.  They are also bound on the second ballot (although the delegates may be polled?).  If a candidate receives less than 20% of the vote on the second ballot, their delegates are released for the third.  All delegates are released for the fourth.

So if this does drag out for several ballots, the preferences of the delegates (chosen by the State Convention only, not vetted in any way by any campaign) become important.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tidewater_Wave on March 01, 2012, 10:23:42 pm
I take part of my comment about 100% back. If you think about it, it's tax dollars that fund the general election and tax dollars that fund both primaries. Both parties have a chance to vote in their own primaries. As Americans we have a duty to cooperate with the election process the same as politicians have a duty to leave office when voted out. Parties paying for their primaries partly is fine but tax dollars already fund the general election and it's not like anyone in either party is excluded from their own party. One vote each election and one vote each primary within one's party.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 02, 2012, 05:06:22 am
The federal court in Texas has ruled that the new primary date there will in fact be May 29, as expected:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/02/us/texas-primary-election-set-for-may-29.html

I've added that to the OP.  Also added the Guam convention on March 10:

http://mvguam.com/local/news/22223-guam-republicans-to-hold-state-convention.html

Will this end up being the last update to the calendar?  I mean, people have already been voting in various primaries for two months.....so about time for states to stop moving their primary dates around?  ;)


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on March 02, 2012, 03:59:23 pm
The federal court in Texas has ruled that the new primary date there will in fact be May 29, as expected:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/02/us/texas-primary-election-set-for-may-29.html

I've added that to the OP.  Also added the Guam convention on March 10:

http://mvguam.com/local/news/22223-guam-republicans-to-hold-state-convention.html

Will this end up being the last update to the calendar?  I mean, people have already been voting in various primaries for two months.....so about time for states to stop moving their primary dates around?  ;)

Hopefully this is it.  For one last edit to the OP, you can remove this line:

Quote
- I haven't bothered to add the dates for US territories yet.  Just the 50 states + DC.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: jimrtex on March 07, 2012, 11:26:44 am
The Texas GOP is apparently close to giving up on the primaries and running its own County Conventions on April 14 or April 21.  The plan will be voted on by the State Republican Executive Committee this upcoming Wednesday.

http://hardincountyconservatives.blogspot.com/p/texas-gop-draft-plan-temporary-and.html (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/TX-R)

The Texas GOP appears to have approved the change (http://hardincountyconservatives.blogspot.com/2012/02/new-rpt-2012-temporaryemergency-rule.html), but it seems I overstated the vastness of the change earlier.

The delegates will still be bound based on the results of the primary (and the allocations of bindings are proportional).  The delegates are still bound for up to three ballots; they will not even be polled on the first ballot.

Sorry, can you clarify this?  Are you saying that the delegates will be chosen in April, but then their vote at the RNC will be bound by the results of the primary, which isn't until May or June?
In Texas, the primary-nominating parties, also hold conventions.  On election night, there are precinct conventions, and then a couple of weeks later county/senatorial district conventions, and then a state convention in early June.  The state conventions are really large, and can't be moved because of hotel reservations. 

Note, the senatorial district conventions aren't really for senate districts, but for splitting county conventions in larger counties.  They are optional, and even when held they are often held at the same location in a county.  The Democrats choose their sub-state-level national delegates by senatorial district, but these are done at the state convention, where delegates from all the counties in the senatorial district meet in a senatorial district caucus.  The Republicans choose their sub-state-level national delegates by congressional district, so even when they have senatorial district conventions, part of the process is based on congressional district.

The primaries determine the party nominees for all offices but president, and it is pretty hard to replace a nominee.  The conventions conduct party business and choose delegates to the next level.  The state convention chooses the delegates to the national convention.  Texas law requires at least 75% of non-official delegates to be based on the results of the presidential primary (based on can include winner-take-all, but the national party rules require proportionality - the Republicans did so for all primaries before April.

Though the national delegates are based on the primary, they aren't chosen until the state convention.  The Democrats poll their convention attendees on presidential preferences, and choose delegates to the next level based on the presidential preference.  The Democrats also choose national delegates in proportion to the poll taken at the precinct conventions (the so-called Texas Two Step, or Texas Double Cross).  They skirt the 75% requirement by having some of these national delegates be official delegates (while the intent is that these might be used for congressmen and the like, the Democratic delegates can be city councilmen and county offiicals, etc. chosen on the basis of which presidential candidate they support).

That is for normal years.

Back in December, after the Supreme Court issued its stay, the SA Court put out a truly ludicrous schedule that would have moved the primary (and precinct conventions) to April 3 and the county conventions to April 14/21.  That schedule assumed that new maps would be settled by February 1, and that an election that will take 89 days could be done in 63 days.  The Supreme Court hearing was January 9, the schedule assumed that the Supreme Court would issue their opinion, have it digested, and new maps drawn in 23 days.

The parties realized that the primary would not be on April 3, and that if there was a primary on May 29, they wouldn't have time for intermediate conventions before the state convention.   So they came up with a schedule that would have the county conventions before the primary.

Precinct conventions were eliminated, and the county conventions will be held on April 21 (this is the only part of the December court order that is still in force).  At the county convention, voters from each precinct will sit as a delegation, and have a voting strength equal to the number of delegates they would have chosen if there had been precinct conventions.

The Democrats will not be using the primary results at all, but will choose national delegates based on the proportion of participants supporting each candidate at the county conventions.

The Republicans will choose its delegates independently of the primary results, but will assign them a candidate who they will vote for in the first ballot of the national convention.  Under the original plan, the national delegates would have been chosen from actual supporters of the presidential candidates.  Under the new plan, there is a potential for fights to determine delegates at both the county and state conventions.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 07, 2012, 07:05:22 pm
I think this thread can be un-stickied now, with the TX date set.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 08, 2012, 03:54:11 am
I'd be happy to un-sticky it, if there are no objections.  I asked about possibly unstickying it earlier, and BushOK said that he liked having the primary calendar here on this board for reference.  But it can also be found countless other places as well.

I'll leave it here for at least 24 hours, and if anyone has opinions on whether it should remain stickied or not, you can weigh in.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 08, 2012, 04:00:27 am
In about 1 week, starting with Illinois, there are only 10 "blocks" of primary days left and because the media will remind us each day which primaries will take place anyway, I think we don't need the stickied thread anymore.

For those who create their Atlas predictions, there's also the remaining calendar and if you fill out your predictions you know which primaries come up.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Erc on March 08, 2012, 09:42:34 am
I generally keep the upcoming month of contests (excluding purely beauty contest primaries) at the bottom of The Delegate Fight sticky.  I can extend it further into the future if there's a demand.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: jimrtex on March 09, 2012, 04:16:33 am
Texas Democrats are using the county convention results on April 21.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 09, 2012, 04:21:30 am
OK, I'm unstickying it.  I may resticky it if there's a great public outcry.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on March 09, 2012, 10:04:43 am
And so ends an era :(


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: argentarius on March 09, 2012, 12:25:23 pm
This has been the most epic fail of a calendar reshuffle. Let all the states until SC vote early and then get going with the big ones.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 15, 2012, 12:16:01 am
I am annoyed by this no longer being stickied, for the record.


Title: Re: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread
Post by: Yelnoc on March 18, 2012, 05:27:49 pm
Bumped so that the next time I go digging for this it isn't so far down.