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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Congressional Elections => Topic started by: Keystone Phil on December 01, 2010, 12:29:28 pm



Title: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 01, 2010, 12:29:28 pm
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1210/45788.html (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1210/45788.html)

He has been raising money though so the news isn't necessarily that bad for Dems though it seems like the GOP is going to target the seat anyway. If I recall correctly, Bingaman's approval ratings haven't been so hot lately.


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: Mjh on December 01, 2010, 01:22:41 pm
Interesting.

Which candidates could the Nex Mexico GOP field against him in 2012 if he decides to run?


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 01, 2010, 01:33:40 pm
PPP had Bingaman at 50-34 approval back in September, so he doesn't seem that vulnerable to me. That's the only recent polling I could find.

Heather Wilson is about the only one that would make it remotely competitive, but that's assuming she could win a primary.


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: SvenssonRS on December 01, 2010, 01:36:35 pm
Interesting.

Which candidates could the Nex Mexico GOP field against him in 2012 if he decides to run?

That is actually a very good question. They only did so well in the major races this year because Pearce decided to reappear and Martinez just practically materialized for them.


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on December 01, 2010, 02:15:06 pm
Martinez got elected Governor in 2010 due to Richardson's unpopularity.


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: Good Grumps With A Gun on December 01, 2010, 02:16:00 pm
Martinez got elected Governor in 2010 due to Richardson's unpopularity.

Ok, Sam and Joe, which of you let him out of his cell?


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: Cory Booker on December 01, 2010, 02:25:33 pm
They stopped deleted his threads, they need to start back doing it.


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: Sam Spade on December 01, 2010, 02:29:53 pm
Martinez got elected Governor in 2010 due to Richardson's unpopularity.

Ok, Sam and Joe, which of you let him out of his cell?

His posts will be dealt with either tonight or in the next couple of days when I get to it.  I don't really care if he posts on his own thread.


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: tmthforu94 on December 01, 2010, 03:47:56 pm
Maybe he'll run for President instead?

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=124250.0


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: Kalwejt on December 01, 2010, 04:13:41 pm
Martinez got elected Governor in 2010 due to Richardson's unpopularity.

Ok, Sam and Joe, which of you let him out of his cell?

Damn it, nkpatel is at large...

Hide your daughters!


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: nkpatel1279 on December 01, 2010, 04:17:31 pm
Martinez got elected Governor in 2010 due to Richardson's unpopularity.

Ok, Sam and Joe, which of you let him out of his cell?

His posts will be dealt with either tonight or in the next couple of days when I get to it.  I don't really care if he posts on his own thread.
Sam, Did Dave Lieps made you and Joe the  Moderator of this forum site?


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: Saxwsylvania on December 01, 2010, 10:02:22 pm
Who is Bingman?


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: Joe Republic on December 01, 2010, 10:06:53 pm
Sam, Did Dave Lieps made you and Joe the  Moderator of this forum site?

Is English your first language, Neal?


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on December 01, 2010, 10:17:11 pm
Sam, Did Dave Lieps made you and Joe the  Moderator of this forum site?

Is English your first language, Neal?

His first language is C++. You knew that, Joe!


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: King on December 01, 2010, 10:27:58 pm
Yay, New Mexico news.

Dems should hold on to this seat.  Susana Martinez was a strong candidate running against a weak candidate tied to a weak incumbent, but here are few candidates on both sides to keep in mind:

State Auditor Hector Balderas (D)
State Senate PPT Michael Sanchez (D)
Lt. Governor John Sanchez (R)
Albuquerque Mayor Richard Berry (R)

Neither side really has much to offer.  The old Democratic machine that used to produce candidates is dying and the Republicans are as disorganized as ever.  That doesn't mean much though.  Martinez was an obscure DA and she managed a win.  Gary Johnson came out of left field, too. Somebody could come out of irrelevance and win this seat.

It is New Mexico, after all.


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 01, 2010, 10:38:27 pm
What about Martin Heinrich? Everyone thinks he's hot and all.


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: King on December 01, 2010, 11:24:11 pm
What about Martin Heinrich? Everyone thinks he's hot and all.

Too much of a city slicker.  You can't win statewide here unless you're Hispanic or look like you can milk a cow.

He certainly has a shot.  He's run two great campaigns in a row with the odds stacked against him, but he'd have to be helped by a strong Obama showing in the state.  That may not come.


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on December 01, 2010, 11:56:27 pm
What about Martin Heinrich? Everyone thinks he's hot and all.

Too much of a city slicker.  You can't win statewide here unless you're Hispanic or look like you can milk a cow.

He certainly has a shot.  He's run two great campaigns in a row with the odds stacked against him, but he'd have to be helped by a strong Obama showing in the state.  That may not come.

Wouldn't he put NM-01 at risk if he ran for the Senate?


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: Skill and Chance on December 02, 2010, 12:43:13 am
What about Martin Heinrich? Everyone thinks he's hot and all.

Too much of a city slicker.  You can't win statewide here unless you're Hispanic or look like you can milk a cow.

He certainly has a shot.  He's run two great campaigns in a row with the odds stacked against him, but he'd have to be helped by a strong Obama showing in the state.  That may not come.

Wouldn't he put NM-01 at risk if he ran for the Senate?

A D+5 District during a presidential year?  That's not going to be a major concern.  Also, the urban Albuquerque district will probably be made even more democratic during redistricting as a compromise to make life easier for Steve Pearce in NM-02.


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on December 02, 2010, 02:20:05 am
What about Martin Heinrich? Everyone thinks he's hot and all.

Too much of a city slicker.  You can't win statewide here unless you're Hispanic or look like you can milk a cow.

He certainly has a shot.  He's run two great campaigns in a row with the odds stacked against him, but he'd have to be helped by a strong Obama showing in the state.  That may not come.

Wouldn't he put NM-01 at risk if he ran for the Senate?

A D+5 District during a presidential year?  That's not going to be a major concern.  Also, the urban Albuquerque district will probably be made even more democratic during redistricting as a compromise to make life easier for Steve Pearce in NM-02.

Redistricting is a wild card in most states.

Yet a D+5 seat, but one which a Republican represented since its creation till 2009. And one that is known for bizarre results. An open seat, plus a strong Republican candidate even in a presidential year is more "risk" then having Heinrich run again. Notice I never said "win", I said "risk".


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: King on December 02, 2010, 03:33:01 am
NM-01 would be risked, but not a high risk.  It's an incumbent bias district more than anything, but it does lean Democrat.

Republicans controlled it for along time, but Heather Wilson was somewhat moderate (or at the very least, non-threatening and sane) and her opponents were always awful.  There was never much effort put into winning her district mainly because candidates always choose not to run.

But Heinrich won't win.  I like him and voted for him this year, but he just doesn't sell outside of Albuquerque.  It's your typical major city vs. rest of state split.

As for redistricting, I'll be interested to see what happens.  I'm not sure about how much water this rumor holds, but apparently if NM-02 and NM-03 were split vertically east-west instead of north-south, they would could be made lean Republican instead of the solid Dem and solid Rep they are now.  Gary Johnson didn't mess with it in 2000, but I don't think Susana Martinez is as noble.


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: Skill and Chance on December 02, 2010, 07:52:49 am
NM-01 would be risked, but not a high risk.  It's an incumbent bias district more than anything, but it does lean Democrat.

Republicans controlled it for along time, but Heather Wilson was somewhat moderate (or at the very least, non-threatening and sane) and her opponents were always awful.  There was never much effort put into winning her district mainly because candidates always choose not to run.

But Heinrich won't win.  I like him and voted for him this year, but he just doesn't sell outside of Albuquerque.  It's your typical major city vs. rest of state split.

As for redistricting, I'll be interested to see what happens.  I'm not sure about how much water this rumor holds, but apparently if NM-02 and NM-03 were split vertically east-west instead of north-south, they would could be made lean Republican instead of the solid Dem and solid Rep they are now.  Gary Johnson didn't mess with it in 2000, but I don't think Susana Martinez is as noble.

Does the D-controlled legislature have a restricted role in redistricting or something?  I assume they would not agree to this off hand.


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: Nichlemn on December 16, 2010, 10:13:11 am

As for redistricting, I'll be interested to see what happens.  I'm not sure about how much water this rumor holds, but apparently if NM-02 and NM-03 were split vertically east-west instead of north-south, they would could be made lean Republican instead of the solid Dem and solid Rep they are now.  Gary Johnson didn't mess with it in 2000, but I don't think Susana Martinez is as noble.

NM-02 is R+6 and NM-03 is D+7, so it's mathematically impossible to make them both lean Republican without packing NM-01.


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: Party Like It's 2006 on December 16, 2010, 11:32:34 am
Yeah split control = incumbent protection. That split would be the exact opposite of incumbent protection.


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: opebo on December 18, 2010, 02:28:56 pm
Martinez got elected Governor in 2010 due to Richardson's unpopularity.

Ok, Sam and Joe, which of you let him out of his cell?

His posts will be dealt with either tonight or in the next couple of days when I get to it.  I don't really care if he posts on his own thread.

Why is nkpatel1279 being silenced?


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: SvenssonRS on December 18, 2010, 03:22:28 pm
Martinez got elected Governor in 2010 due to Richardson's unpopularity.

Ok, Sam and Joe, which of you let him out of his cell?

His posts will be dealt with either tonight or in the next couple of days when I get to it.  I don't really care if he posts on his own thread.

Why is nkpatel1279 being silenced?

He's a blatant spambot?


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 18, 2010, 09:09:03 pm
I thought you said you weren't posting here anymore, Svensson?


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: Mr.Phips on December 18, 2010, 10:02:18 pm
What about Martin Heinrich? Everyone thinks he's hot and all.

Too much of a city slicker.  You can't win statewide here unless you're Hispanic or look like you can milk a cow.

He certainly has a shot.  He's run two great campaigns in a row with the odds stacked against him, but he'd have to be helped by a strong Obama showing in the state.  That may not come.

Wouldn't he put NM-01 at risk if he ran for the Senate?

A D+5 District during a presidential year?  That's not going to be a major concern.  Also, the urban Albuquerque district will probably be made even more democratic during redistricting as a compromise to make life easier for Steve Pearce in NM-02.

Redistricting is a wild card in most states.

Yet a D+5 seat, but one which a Republican represented since its creation till 2009. And one that is known for bizarre results. An open seat, plus a strong Republican candidate even in a presidential year is more "risk" then having Heinrich run again. Notice I never said "win", I said "risk".

Obama won 60% of the vote in this district and if he does so again, a Republican is not winning here in an open seat or an incumbent race. 


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: opebo on December 19, 2010, 12:58:34 pm
He's a blatant spambot?

What's that?


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: SvenssonRS on December 19, 2010, 01:48:46 pm
I thought you said you weren't posting here anymore, Svensson?

Considering I'm within inches of leaving Atlasia, I decided I needed something else to keep me vaguely connected. This forum happens to be the only place on the site where I can track campaign announcements.


He's blatantly running on a program. All his posts seem pretty much robotic.


Title: Re: Bingaman undecided on re-election.
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on December 19, 2010, 01:57:51 pm
Not the ones in this thread, though...