Talk Elections

Debbie Stabenow: 49
John Engler: 42

Debbie Stabenow: 45
Pete Hoekstra: 44

Debbie Stabenow: 45
Terri Lynn Land: 41

URL: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MI_1208806.pdf

Compared to the Obama numbers those look pretty bad for her.

If Obama loses PA and MI it will be a landslide for Mitt Romney who is gonna be the apparent nominee anyways, so he gets the nomination, this will be contested.

Hoekstra has the highest numbers against her? Seriously? As far as Republicans go, you'd be hard pressed to find someone more ridiculous and full of themselves.

Nevertheless I'm sure Stabenow will be fine in 2012.

This can't be good news for Stabenow. I'm surprised Engler is so low. Personally, I'd like to see Lynn Land get the nomination, but I'm not sure if she'll run.

These are horrible numbers for an incumbent, especially in a Democratic-leaning state like Michigan. Also I read a PPP poll a while back if I recall correctly, and Stabennow's approvals were pretty bad.

I don't see what is so horrible about the numbers, they are better than they could be at this stage in the game when opposition is seen as very generic. Stabenow will have quite a boost from Presidential turnout, so that plays heavily in her favor.

Weird how I was randomly talking about her re-election chances with someone just hours before I saw this. I said she could be knocked off and didn't have Levin-like popularity. ;)

For the record, the other person brought up her re-election chances. I don't randomly start talking that type of stuff.  :P

Most interesting observations about this poll (in my opinion):

John Engler - Favorable: 33; Unfavorable: 45
-50% of independents/other view him unfavorably
-58% of moderates view him unfavorably
-73% of African-Americans view him unfavorably

Jennifer Granholm - Approve: 37; Disapprove: 57
-Her approvals are actually higher than I expected

Pete Hoekstra's favorability among self-identified liberals: 14
-This seems awful strange, as Hoekstra is often considered one of the more conservative members of the US House (certainly the most conservative US House member from Michigan)

Definitely a little surprising considering how well Obama is still running here.

I'm calling this fools' gold for Republicans unless 2012 is a repeat of 2010. Michigan's economy is still bad, so incumbents aren't going to look good... this is why the more established Republicans aren't doing better. The state's lean in a presidential year and the fact that Dem policy is much more favorable to Michigan than Republican is going to keep this in the D column, as with Washington and California this year. Even Feingold would have won in a 2012 electorate and Michigan isn't Wisconsin.

I suspect the Dems are in  deep trouble in Michigan in 2012. The numbers this time in the state were that bad for the Dems. I didn't fully fathom it, until I vetted the state intensively, in the past month or so, as I was doing my redistricting plans. The Dems will need a big snap back, and it was not as if Detroit this time did not show up and vote. To me, the critical states in 2012 are Michigan and Wisconsin. I suspect Michigan will be more GOP than PA. I also think the economy will remain tepid in 2012, with still high unemployment. We have a long hard road folks.

Did you see PPP's numbers in Michigan for Obama vs. the Republicans this past week? I would have shared your concern until I saw that. He's trouncing everyone except for Romney by double digits, and leading Romney substantially.

Here's the thread, you have to ignore the predictions to get to the real numbers.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=129000.0

Not sure how a lead that's barely outside the margin of error is "substantial."

These numbers are bad news for Stabenow, though I suspect she will squeak by due to Obama's coattails.

Why exactly is Engler seen so unfavorable by MI voters ? I thought he was more a popular guy ?

He left office quite unpopular. I am not sure why. Maybe voters just got tired of him. In watching him on the tube, I don't think he wore too well.

Ask Eric.

Why is PPP doing 2012 polls now?  I would think 2011 would be in order in Mississippi and Kentucky.

True. I think I used that term because I was surprised at how well Obama is doing across the board in Michigan, but it doesn't make it a substantial lead in absolute terms.

I was unaware of this poll and yes, it is interesting. Yes, other than Romney, the field of GOP candidates polled suck for Michigan, and all are losers in any event to Obama. Of that, I am quite confident. As to the poll however, I have trouble believing that Obama has a favorable rating of 2-1 with moderates. Why would it be so much higher here, than the nation?

They want to establish long-term trendlines.

I know it sounds bizarre, and especially to hear it coming from me, but the economy is set for quite a rebound, and states like Michigan and the rust belt are set to come back strongest (albeit from a terrible base).  It depends on whether people are encouraged by the direction things are going, or the fact that they will still be objectively pretty bad in 2012 in MI/WI, etc.

David Weigel hypothesized that it's because the auto bailout is popular:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/weigel/archive/2010/12/07/breaking-michigan-supported-huge-bailout-of-michigan.aspx

though I haven't really been following the political situation in Michigan, so I'd be curious as to what others thought of that.

Why do you believe that?

What about Spain? It seems to me it's headed towards default. The Germans seem to be enjoying twisting the knife. When that happens it will be like CreditAnstalt in 1931.

Spain isn't going anywhere. germany will go down before spain.