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The Second Term of Richard Nixon

On September 15, 1972, a grand jury indicted 7 men (Virgilio González, Bernard Baker, James McCord Jr., Eugenio Martinez, Frank Sturgis, Howard Hunt Jr., and Gordon Liddy) of conspiracy, burglary, and violation of wiretapping law, as that June they had broken in to the Watergate Hotel and wiretapped the headquarters of the Democratic National Committee.

They were convicted on January 30, 1973. All men were, after much investigation, found to be tied to a 1972 Committee to Re-elect the President. A letter from McCord to John Sirica implicated important government officials, including former Attorney General John Mitchell.

A Senate committee, chaired by Democrat Sam Ervin of North Carolina, was founded to investigate the break-in, and found it connected to top White House officials. On April 30, 1973, Nixon asked for the resignation of three of his most influential aides. All three would end up in prison.

On July 13, 1973, Alexander Butterfield told the Committee that there was system in the White House that automatically recorded everything said in most rooms, including the Oval Office, the Cabinet Room, and Nixon’s office in the Old Executive Office Building. These tapes were subpoenaed by special prosecutor Archibald Cox, but Nixon cited his executive privilege as President of the United States, and refused.

Cox refused to drop his subpoena. On October 20, 1973, Nixon asked Attorney General Elliot Richardson, Assistant Attorney General William Ruckelshaus, and Solicitor General Robert Bork to fire Cox. All three resigned.

Six days later, on October 26, 1973, the so-called ‘Smoking Gun’ tape was released, where-in Bob Haldeman (one of the three fired aides from April 30) details the Watergate break-in from Nixon and how he plans to derail the Senate investigation. Throughout the tape, Nixon approves.

On November 17, 1973, Nixon released all tapes and resigned from the Presidency.

However, the office of the Vice Presidency was vacant, as Vice President Spiro Agnew had resigned approximately two months earlier, on October 10, due to an unrelated scandal; in the mid-‘60s, Agnew had taken bribes as Governor of Maryland.

With both the offices of President and Vice President vacant, the provisions of the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 kicked in, and Speaker of the House Carl Albert, Democrat of Oklahoma, was inaugurated President of the United States.

The First Term of Carl Albert

From the start, Albert’s position was precarious. He had not been elected President or Vice President; rather, he had been elected as U.S. Representative by the voters of Oklahoma’s 3rd congressional district, and had become President merely by a twist of fate.

Albert’s first move was to ensure that he would not be President for long. Tip O’Neill, a Democratic U.S. Representative from Massachusetts who succeeded Albert as Speaker, introduced the 27th Amendment, that moved all future presidential elections two years into the past (1976 to 1974, 1980 to 1978, 1984 to 1982, etc., etc.). The Amendment passed both houses of Congress with surprising speed and had been ratified by state legislatures by the end of January, in time for both parties to organize presidential primaries.

Albert neglected to appoint a Vice-President. For the office of Attorney General, Albert re-appointed Nixon’s ex-Attorney General, Elliot Richardson, who had resigned in protest during the Watergate Scandal.

Albert, additionally, pledged to sign only laws that garnered the support of a majority of both Congressional Republicans and Democrats.

In short, Albert was a do-nothing President and proud of it.

However, Albert would come to regret his pledge. On February 6, 1974, Senator Ted Kennedy, Democrat of Massachusetts, introduced the Comprehensive Health Insurance Act. After several months of debate, the bill was passed by the Senate and House in April of 1974, garnering the support of around sixty percent of both Houses – not quite enough to override a veto, but nevertheless an imposing majority. However, the Republican congressional delegation, by a narrow margin, voted against the bill.

In spite of the pleas of his party, Albert refused to break his pledge and sign the bill into law. He vetoed it in the hope that Congress might overturn the veto, and while the second time around the margin of support was greater, Senator Kennedy failed to convince Congress to overturn the veto.

Democratic Primaries

President Albert announced that he would not be seeking any office in 1974, and would indeed be leaving politics.

He left Ted Kennedy, of Massachusetts, as the overwhelming frontrunner. Kennedy easily won the nomination, in spite of a whole host of candidates, some of whom participated early in the primaries, then dropped out; some of whom dropped in to replace them; and some of whom (so-called ‘favorite sons’) participated only in their home states, and sometimes, border states.

Mo Udall carried Arizona and Wyoming; Jerry Brown carried California, Nevada, and on the other side of the country, New Jersey and Delaware; Frank Church carried Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Nebraska; George Wallace carried Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina; Hubert Humphrey carried Minnesota and North Dakota; Henry Jackson carried his home state of Washington, and, oddly enough, New York; Robert Byrd carried his home state of West Virginia; Adlai Stevenson III carried his home state of Illinois; Jimmy Carter carried his home state of Georgia.

These candidates all largely bickered with each other, and there was never any doubt that Kennedy would win the nomination. Riding on the wave of opposition to the health-care failure, Kennedy would be triumphantly nominated at the Convention and chose former Governor of North Carolina Terry Sanford (who had unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination in 1972) as his running mate, to appeal to Southern voters.

Republican Primaries

In 1974, the two most populous states in the U.S. were California and New York. The Governor of California, Ronald Reagan, was the leader of the conservative wing of the Republican Party; the Governor of New York, Nelson Rockefeller, was the leader of the liberal wing of the Republican Party. It was inevitable that these two titans would clash.

They did in 1974, both forgoing reelection to the Governor’s Mansion for a run at the presidency. Although Rockefeller had an early lead, Reagan was buoyed by a victory in North Carolina (he had been endorsed by local Senator Jesse Helms); afterwards, the two fought a long campaign which finally went to the Convention[1].

With no clear favorite, Reagan made the mistake of choosing liberal Republican Attorney General Elliot Richardson as his running mate. The move backfired as conservative support declined, allowing Rockefeller to win narrowly on the first ballot. Rockefeller selected conservative Governor of New Hampshire Meldrim Thomson as his running mate.

General Election

The long, drawn-out Republican fight left Rockefeller weak and without the support of conservative voters. Kennedy, on the other hand, had the total support of his party. Although Republicans across the nation tried to blame the nation’s economic troubles (the economy was, at this point, entering the Long Recession) on President Albert, and indeed this tactic buoyed many local Republicans, Kennedy of all Democrats had been unforgiving of Albert’s veto of the health-care bill, and was viewed as much of an opponent of Albert as the Republicans were (although this was simply not true).

Slates of unpledged electors ran very successfully in the South, which was not really willing to vote for either Kennedy or Rockefeller. Most Southerners held their noses and voted for Kennedy, although the unpledged-s would win victories in Mississippi and Alabama.

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Ted Kennedy/Terry Sanford (Democratic): 461 EV, 55.3% PV
Nelson Rockefeller/Meldrim Thomson (Republican): 61 EV, 42.4% PV
Unpledged Electors: 17 EV

The unpledged electors ended up choosing Alabama Governor George Wallace (who had run as an independent in 1968, and ran three times for the Democratic nomination – in 1964, 1972, and 1976) for President and North Carolina Senator Jesse Helms as Vice President.

Congressional Elections

Although Kennedy blew Rockefeller out of the water, down-ballot Democrats and Republicans ran basically equal.

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Four incumbent Senators were defeated. Republicans Peter Dominick of Colorado and William Saxbe of Ohio were defeated, respectively, by Democrats Gary Hart and John Glenn; Democrats George McGovern of South Dakota and Birch Bayh of Indiana were defeated, respectively, by Republicans Leo Thorsness and Richard Lugar.

Additionally, two open seats changed hands. In Nevada, long-time Democratic Senator Alan Bible retired, and popular Republican Governor Paul Laxalt won his seat; in New Hampshire, long-time Republican Senator Norris Cotton retired; and the fall-out from the many gaffes produced by the state’s Republican Governor and 1974 vice-presidential nominee, Meldrim Thomson, was enough to swing the victory to little-known Democrat John Durkin.

Other prominent elections include Arkansas, where Democrat Dale Bumpers replaced retiring Democrat William Fulbright; Florida, where Republican Jack Eckerd replaced retiring Republican Edward Gurney; Iowa, where Democrat John Culver replaced retiring Democrat Harold Hughes; Kentucky, where Republican Senator Marlow Cook narrowly eked out a victory against his Democratic challenger, Wendell Ford; North Carolina, where Democrat Robert Morgan replaced retiring Democrat Sam Ervin; Utah, where Republican Jake Garn replaced retiring Republican Wallace Bennett; and Vermont, where Republican Richard Mallary replaced retiring Republican George Aiken.

The result was that the Senate net change was zero, and the Democrats retained their majority, 56-42 (with 2 independent Senators; one caucusing with the Democrats, one with the Republicans). In practice, their majority was 57-43.

In the House of Representatives, however, Kennedy’s coat-tails were more noticeable, if still less than one might expect them to be. Democrats ultimately picked up 10 seats, and upped their majority to 253-182. Speaker Tip O’Neill was reelected. As the Republican House leader, Gerald Ford of Michigan, had retired in 1974, he was replaced as Minority Leader by John Rhodes of Michigan.

[1] The map is exactly like OTL’s Ford v. Reagan match.

The First Term of Ted Kennedy

Vice President: Terry Sanford
Chief of Staff: Sargent Shriver, Jr.
Secretary of State: Cyrus Vance
Secretary of the Treasury: Russell Long
Secretary of Defense: Benjamin Davis, Jr.
Attorney General: Roger Wilkins
Secretary of the Interior: Cecil Andrus
Secretary of Commerce: Daniel Inouye
Secretary of Labor: Ray Marshall
Secretary of Agriculture: Sissy Farenthold
Secretary of Health, Education, and Welfare: la Donna Harris
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Patricia R. Harris
Secretary of Transportation: Geraldine Ferraro
National Security Advisor: Zbigniew Brzezinski

Ted Kennedy was inaugurated President of the United States on January 21, 1975. He made it immediately clear that his very first priority was to pass universal health care legislation in the United States.

This was expected – it had been a major part of Kennedy's campaign. The new act was jointly introduced to the Senate by two freshmen – Paul Tsongas, who had been appointed to replace President Kennedy, and Spark Matsunaga, who had been appointed to replace Secretary Inouye. (The third Senator who left to join the Kennedy administration, Russell Long of Louisiana, was replaced by former Senator Elaine Edwards). The new act is far, far more ambitious than the one passed just several months earlier. In the House, it is personally introduced by Speaker O'Neill.

Being more ambitious, it receives much heavier opposition than the 1974 act. Nevertheless, in mid-March, the House passes the act, 235-200.

It receives even greater opposition in the Senate, however, where Republican Senators Roman Hruska of Nebraska and Strom Thurmond of South Carolina jointly filibuster the act.

On April 30, even worse news strikes for the President: the fall of Saigon. The Vietnam War is over (though America had long since withdrawn). The Communists had conquered Vietnam.

Throughout the summer of 1975, Senators continue to debate the health-care act, with Hruska and Thurmond continuing as its most fervent opponents. Meanwhile, as the economic picture gets steadily worse (the Long Recession has kicked in), so does the President's approval rating, which slowly goes downhill. Finally, on October 29, the health-care act is brought to a vote.

It fails by the narrow vote of 51-49.

The next day, President Kennedy gives his 'Philadelphia Address' (he was in Philadelphia at the time), regretting the Congress's failure to pass the bill, berating it for not caring about the average American, but also firmly establishing that it is time to move on. Kennedy looks shocked throughout the entire speech.

On December 23, 1975, Congress passes the Metric Conversion Act, formally shifting the United States government from using customary units to using the metric system the entire rest of the world uses. In the present day, every country in the world uses the metric system, with the sole exception of Burma.

1976, for the Kennedy administration, could be looked at several ways. On the one hand, it was legislatively certainly a more successful year than 1975, when Kennedy had spent the entire year trying to pass universal health-care only to narrowly fail in the end. But, on the other hand, it was also the year of rising inflation, a worsening unemployment picture, and a generally decreasing presidential approval rating.

Kennedy passed many significant acts of legislation in 1976. These included IDEA (the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act) that set up the way public schools would educate children with thirteen stated different kinds of disabilities. He also passed the U.S. Freedom of Information Act, that specified ten things the government could conceal from the people (generally military information), and required it to publish all else. The Toxic Substances Control Act of 1976 listed the chemical substances that could legally be privately owned in the United States; the Copyright Act of 1976 fundamentally altered U.S. copyright law (which had remained unchanged since 1909).

On October 21, 1976, largely due to the constant lobbying of Interior Secretary Cecil Andrus, three laws were passed; the Federal Land Policy and Management Act; the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act; and the National Forest Management Act.

Congressional Elections

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The Republicans picked up 7 seats to the Democrats' 2 pickups, for a net Republican gain of 5 seats (it must be noted that, during the campaign, independent Senator James Buckley, who had already caucused with the Republicans, formally joined the Republican Party and was reelected as a Republican). The result was a Democratic majority of 51-48-1, with the 1 independent (Harry Byrd, Jr.) caucusing with the Democrats, so in effect the Democratic majority was 52-48.

Five incumbents were defeated for reelection. In California, Republican S.I. Hayakawa defeated incumbent Democrat John Tunney; in New Mexico, Republican Harrison Schmitt defeated incumbent Democrat Joseph Montoya; in Utah, Republican Orrin Hatch defeated incumbent Democrat Frank Moss; and in Wyoming, Republican Malcolm Wallop defeated incumbent Democrat Gale McGee. Additionally, in Maryland, Democrat Paul Sarbanes defeated incumbent Republican John G. Beall, Jr.

Three Republican pickups were open seats, as was one Democratic pickup. In Michigan, Republican Marvin Esch was elected to the open seat of Democrat Philip Hart; in Missouri, Republican John Danforth was elected to the open seat of Democrat Stuart Symington; and in Rhode Island, Republican John Chafee was elected to the open seat of Democrat John Pastore. In Hawaii, Democrat Patsy Mink was elected to the open seat of Republican Hiram Fong.

Other notable races included Arizona, where in a great upset Republican Sam Steiger defeated Democrat Dennis de Concini; Indiana, where in a similar upset incumbent Democratic Senator Vance Hartke was reelected; Hawaii, where in conjunction to Mink getting elected to Fong's seat appointed Senator Spark Matsunaga was reelected (the unique color of Hawaii on the map reflects one Democratic pickup, one hold); Louisiana, where appointed placeholder Senator Elaine Edwards retired, and fellow Democrat John McKeithen was elected to her seat; Massachusetts, where recently appointed Senator Paul Tsongas was reelected; Montana, where Democrat John Melcher was elected to replace retiring Democratic Senate Majority Leader Mike Mansfield; Nebraska, where Republican John McCollister was elected to replace retiring Republican Roman Hruska; New York, where incumbent Republican Senator James Buckley was narrowly reelected over his Democratic challenger, Pat Moynihan; Ohio, where incumbent Republican Senator Robert Taft, Jr. was narrowly reelected over his Democratic challenger Howard Metzenbaum; Pennsylvania, where retiring Republican Senate Minority Leader Hugh Scott was replaced by fellow Republican John Heinz, Jr.; and Tennessee, where incumbent Republican Senator Bill Brock was reelected in a close race over his Democratic challenger, Jim Sasser.

The elections in the House of Representatives are similarly disastrous; Democrats lose 22 seats. Nevertheless, they maintain a majority of 231-204; Tip O'Neill continues as Speaker of the House, and John Rhodes continues as Minority Leader.

In the Senate, both party leaders, Democrat Mike Mansfield of Montana and Republican Hugh Scott of Pennsylvania, retired. Mansfield was replaced by Senator Walter Mondale of Minnesota, who became Senate Majority Leader; Scott was replaced by Senator Howard Baker of Tennessee, who becomes Senate Minority Leader.

Gubernatorial Elections

(too lazy to make a map; sorry 'bout the wall-o'-text)

The 1975 gubernatorial elections had gone fairly well for Democrats. In Kentucky and Louisiana, incumbent Democratic governors Julian Carroll and Edwin Edwards were easily reelected; however, a tea leaf for the upcoming 1976 disaster for the Democrats could be spotted in Mississippi, where Democratic Governor Bill Waller was term-limited, and Democratic nominee Cliff Finch defeated the totally unknown Republican candidate, Gil Carmichael, by a slim 2% margin.

The 1976 gubernatorial elections were an utter disaster for Democrats. In Arkansas, incumbent Democratic Governor David Pryor was reelected; in Delaware, incumbent Democratic Governor Sherman Tribbitt was defeated by Republican candidate Pierre du Pont IV; in Illinois, Democratic Governor Daniel Walker is defeated in a primary by Michael Howlett, who is in turn defeated by Republican candidate Jim Thompson; in Indiana, incumbent Republican Governor Otis Bowen is reelected; in Missouri, incumbent Republican Governor Kit Bond is reelected; in Montana, incumbent Democratic Governor Thomas L. Judge is reelected; in New Hampshire, incumbent Republican Governor (and 1974 Republican vice-presidential nominee) Meldrim Thomson, famous for his gaffes, is nevertheless reelected; in North Carolina, a bright spot for Democrats as Democrat Jim Hunt replaces Republican Governor James Holshouser, who was barred from seeking reelection; in North Dakota, Republican Allen Olson defeats incumbent Democratic Governor Arthur Link; in Rhode Island, after several recounts, Democratic candidate John Garrahy narrowly defeats totally unknown Republican candidate James Taft to replace incumbent Democratic Governor Philip Noel; in Utah, Republican Vernon Romney (cousin of prominent ex-Michigan Governor George Romney) replaces Democratic Governor Calvin Rampton, who was barred from seeking reelection; in Vermont, Republican Richard Snelling replaces Democrat Thomas Salmon; in Washington, Republican John Spellman replaces Republican Daniel Evans; and lastly in West Virginia, another Democratic bright spot, Democrat Jay Rockefeller replaces Republican Arch Moore, Jr.

The First Term of Ted Kennedy (cont.)

After the ‘shellacking’ his party took in the ’76 midterms (although it retained control of both House and Senate), Kennedy toned down his goals. After the successes of late ’76, environmentalism became a more prominent factor in the Kennedy administration.

This environmentalism contributed to the passage of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (which regulated coal mining), the National Energy Conservation Policy Act; and the Clean Water Act, which mandated an extremely low amount of water pollution in the United States. In the mid-‘80s, the standards set by the CWA would be met, but the credit would largely go to Kennedy’s successor.

By 1977, the country was in the exact center of the Long Recession, which had begun in 1973 and showed no signs of coming to a halt. In order to bolster the economy, Kennedy passed the Community Reinvestment Act (a broad stimulus, but with most money going to particularly low-income neighborhoods); the Humphrey Full Employment Act, which was designed to increase American employment (it should be noted that ITTL Senators James Allen of Alabama and Hubert Humphrey of Minnesota are both alive (if not well) at the conclusion of this update).

Also, Kennedy passed the Bankruptcy Reform Act of 1978, replacing the old bankruptcy code, which had not been altered since the Nelson Act of 1898.

Nevertheless, such ‘economically stimulating’ acts were broadly failures, as Kennedy categorically failed to uplift the American economy, and the American people’s approval of him suffered because of it.

Kennedy would be remembered more positively for his continued efforts towards fairness and against discrimination. He passed the Ethics in Government Act, heavily restricting the abilities of incumbent members of Congress to lobby, among other things; and the Pregnancy Discrimination Act, which not only forbids companies from not hiring on account of pregnancy, but mandates companies have a paid maternity leave.

Democratic Primaries

Despite his unpopularity, President Kennedy was not seriously opposed in the 1978 primaries. Although a ‘Draft Muskie’ movement, attempting to draft Maine Senator and 1968 vice-presidential nominee Edmund Muskie to run against Kennedy garnered much media attention, Muskie declined, endorsing Kennedy for re-election.

Republican Primaries

The Republican Party primaries certainly attracted more prominent candidates than the Democrats, even if they failed to garner much more competition. Former Governor Ronald Reagan of California was the frontrunner; he was opposed by Representative John Anderson of Illinois; Senate Minority Leader Howard Baker of Tennessee; former Governor John Connally of Texas; Representative Phil Crane, also of Illinois; Senator Bob Dole of Kansas; Senator Lowell Weicker of Connecticut; and former Governor Harold Stassen of Minnesota.

Reagan immediately established himself as the frontrunner. The fact that Baker and Dole dropped out before the primaries, opting to endorse Reagan, certainly did not hurt this image.

An odd trio came to represent the source of opposition to Reagan; they were all tied for second place in national polling, and it was clear that if one could break out, they would be a serious threat. These much-hyped candidates were Connally (representing the right), Anderson (representing the center), and Weicker (representing the left). The field was further cleared when Crane dropped out, endorsing Connally over Anderson.

The first two primaries were Iowa and New Hampshire. Iowa polling showed Reagan narrowly leading Connally; New Hampshire polling showed Reagan narrowly leading Weicker. Reagan pulled off narrow victories in both states. Connally, who had bankrupted his campaign for Iowa, dropped out; leaving Reagan, Weicker, Anderson, and Stassen. On March 4, Weicker carried Massachusetts and Connecticut; this was followed by an all-out blitz from Reagan, who would carry Illinois and most of the south over the next few days, although Weicker would carry Connecticut.

By now severely short on funds, Weicker dropped out on April 1, simultaneously losing Kansas and Wisconsin.

Weicker’s drop-out removed the last obstacle from Reagan’s path to nomination; Anderson and Stassen were non-entities. Or so it was thought.

They were correct about Stassen, who would take the race all the way to the convention, where he would get zero votes. Anderson, however, dropped out several days after Weicker, and declared his candidacy as an independent. Independent Maine Governor James Longley was his running mate.

Reagan was triumphantly nominated at the Republican Convention; he chose Pennsylvania Senator (and Weicker supporter) Richard Schweiker as his running mate. One comedian theorized that this was because the two names (Schweiker and Weicker) sounded similar and people would confuse the one for the other; this reference was largely forgotten until the publishing of Schweiker’s autobiography in 1994 revealed this was indeed the case.

Soon after the convention, Weicker would endorse Anderson.

General Election

The election began as a close race between Reagan and Kennedy, with Anderson as somewhat of a third wheel. Nevertheless, many realized that if the election went to the House, Anderson could end up a kingmaker, and indeed Anderson was, in the early stages of the campaign, negotiating with both the Reagan and Kennedy campaigns about the event of a House vote.

These negotiations broke off as Anderson’s poll numbers began to fall, his supporters fleeing in equal numbers to Reagan and Kennedy, who were thought possible winners, unlike Anderson. It was a self-fulfilling prophecy; the more Reagan and Kennedy seemed like winners, not Anderson, the more Anderson supporters left for Reagan and Kennedy, and the more Reagan and Kennedy seemed like winners. Et cetera.

The scheduled debate between Reagan and Kennedy was repeatedly delayed, as both Kennedy and Reagan were under the impression (largely false, though conventional wisdom at the time) that Anderson largely sucked up Reagan support. Therefore, Kennedy would only agree to a debate if Anderson was in it (gaining him more attention, and hopefully resurrecting his poll numbers), while Reagan had the opposite demand: he would debate Kennedy if Anderson was not included.

As Anderson’s support continued to drop, he increasingly shifted from the role of a potential kingmaker to the role of a minor-party candidate, and the Kennedy campaign’s demands to include Anderson became seen as petty. One week before the election, Kennedy agreed to a debate with Reagan.

The debate was a disaster for Kennedy, who appeared flustered and was seen as somewhat ‘mean’, repeatedly going negative. Reagan interrupted one Kennedy tirade, with the phrase, “There you go again,” pointing out the various benefits Californians received during his Governorship. At the end, he turned and faced the audience. “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”

On Election Day, the answer is overwhelmingly ‘no’. Reagan is elected in a landslide, and his victory also brings coat-tails down-ballot, electing many Republicans thought to be unknown or to have no chance of victory.

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Ronald Reagan/Richard Schweiker (Republican) 489 EV, 50.7% PV
Ted Kennedy/Terry Sanford (Democratic) 49 EV, 40.0% PV
John Anderson/James Longley (Independent) 0 EV, 7.6% PV

Congressional Elections

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Democrats failed to pick up any seats whatsoever in the Senate in 1978, whereas Republicans picked up 8 seats, taking the Senate majority 56-43-1, with the independent, Harry Byrd Jr. of Virginia, caucusing with the Democrats, so in effect a majority of 56-44. Howard Baker of Tennessee became Senate Majority Leader, while his Democratic counterpart, Walter Mondale of Minnesota (one of the 8 Democratic Senate victories of 1978) became Senate Minority Leader.

Three Republican pickups were open seats; Republicans defeated five Democratic incumbents. In Colorado, William Armstrong defeated Floyd Haskell; in Iowa, Roger Jepsen defeated Dick Clark; in Maine, William Cohen defeated William Hathaway; New Hampshire, Gordon Humphrey defeated Thomas McIntyre; and in West Virginia, Arch Moore Jr. defeated Jennings Randolph.

In Alabama, Republican James Martin was elected to the open seat left by the retirement of John Sparkman; in Mississippi, Thad Cochran was elected to James Eastland’s seat; and in South Dakota Larry Pressler was elected to James Abourezk’s seat.

Other notable races included Arkansas, where Democrat David Pryor was elected to Kaneaster Hodges’s seat (Hodges being a placeholder after the death of John McClellan); Kansas, where Republican Nancy Kassebaum, the daughter of former governor and 1936 presidential candidate Alf Landon, was elected to the open seat of James Pearson; Massachusetts and Michigan, where incumbent Republicans Edward Brooke and Robert Griffin triumphed in close races largely due to the wave; Minnesota, where Democrat Walter Mondale was extremely narrowly reelected; Montana, where Democrat Max Baucus was elected to Paul Hatfield’s seat (Hatfield, like Hodges, was a placeholder appointed after the death of Lee Metcalf); Nebraska, where incumbent Republican Carl Curtis reneged on his previous decision to retire and was reelected; New Jersey, where conservative Republican Jeffrey Bell defeated liberal Republican incumbent Clifford Case in the primary before beating back a Democratic challenge; Oklahoma, where Republican Dewey Bartlett narrowly triumphed over his Democratic challenger, David Boren, largely due to the wave; Virginia, where Republican John Warner was elected to the open seat of fellow Republican William Scott; and Wyoming, where Republican Alan Simpson was elected to the open seat of fellow Republican Clifford Hansen.

The picture was no less bleak in the House. Democrats lost 35 seats, and Republicans picked up the majority 239-196; Republican John Rhodes of Arizona became Speaker, while Speaker Tip O’Neill became Minority Leader. In both houses, it was the first Republican majority since 1954.

List of Governors of the Fifty U.S. States After the Elections of 1978

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Alabama: Fob James (Democratic)
Alaska: Jay Hammond (Republican)
Arizona: Evan Mecham (Republican)
Arkansas: Bill Clinton (Democratic)
California: Jerry Brown (Democratic)
Colorado: Richard Lamm (Democratic)
Connecticut: Ella Grasso (Democratic)
Delaware: Pierre du Pont IV (Republican)
Florida: Paula Hawkins (Republican)
Georgia: George Busbee (Democratic)
Hawaii: John Leopold (Republican)
Idaho: John Evans (Democratic)
Illinois: James Thompson (Republican)
Indiana: Otis Bowen (Republican)
Iowa: Robert Ray (Republican)
Kansas: Robert Bennett (Republican)
Maine: David Emery (Republican)
Maryland: Harry Hughes (Democratic)
Massachusetts: John Sears (Republican)
Michigan: William Milliken (Republican)
Minnesota: Al Quie (Republican)
Missouri: Kit Bond (Republican)
Montana: Thomas Judge (Democratic)
Nebraska: Charles Thone (Republican)
Nevada: Robert List (Republican)
New Hampshire: Meldrim Thomson (Republican)
New Jersey: Ray Bateman (Republican)
New Mexico: Joe Skeen (Republican)
New York: Perry Duryea (Republican)
North Carolina: Jim Hunt (Democratic)
North Dakota: Allen Olson (Republican)
Ohio: Jim Rhodes (Republican)
Oklahoma: George Nigh (Democratic)
Oregon: Victor Atiyeh (Republican)
Pennsylvania: Dick Thornburgh (Republican)
Rhode Island: John Garrahy (Democratic)
South Carolina: Edward Young (Republican)
South Dakota: Bill Janklow (Republican)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (Republican)
Texas: Bill Clements (Republican)
Utah: Vernon Romney (Republican)
Vermont: Richard Snelling (Republican)
Virginia: John Dalton (Republican)
Washington: John Spellman (Republican)
West Virginia: Jay Rockefeller (Democratic)
Wisconsin: Bob Kasten (Republican)
Wyoming: John Ostlund (Republican)

The First Term of Ronald Reagan

Vice President: Richard Schweiker
Secretary of State: Nelson Rockefeller
Secretary of the Treasury: Donald Regan
Secretary of Defense: Henry Kissinger
Attorney General: Edward Levi
Secretary of the Interior: Elizabeth Dole
Secretary of Commerce: Elliot Richardson
Secretary of Labor: George Shultz
Secretary of Agriculture: John R. Block
Secretary of Health, Education, and Welfare: Caspar Weinberger
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Carla A. Hills
Secretary of Transportation: William T. Coleman, Jr.
Chief of Staff: James Baker

Reagan was blessed with the first Congressional Republican majority since Eisenhower, and he immediately brought it to use. He began with a sweeping, tax cut, which had been proposed by Representative Jack Kemp of New York. It passed easily[1] due to the Republican majority in both Houses. Some would call it a failure – just a year later, in 1980, a so-called 'Fiscal Responsibility Act' repealed large sections of the Kemp cuts, although tax rates remained dramatically lower.

However, tax increases were also passed by the 96th Congress. The Secretary of Transportation, William Thaddeus Coleman, pioneered a four-cent gas tax increase, in order to fund repairs on interstate highways.

Also, Democratic Senator Gaylord Nelson of Wisconsin enacted the Regulatory Flexibility Act, which demands that regulatory agencies must 'solicit the views of affected small entities and of the Office of Small Business Advocacy' before doing anything that would 'significantly impact' small businesses.

Also in 1979, incumbent Secretary of State Nelson Rockefeller died in office. Rockefeller and Reagan had been rivals ever since the presidential primaries of 1974, and the nomination was a successful attempt at conciliation. Secretary of Defense Henry Kissinger, who had formerly held the office of SecState, was promoted, and the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, Alexander M. Haig, was given the office of Secretary of Defense.

Senator Jake Garn of Utah wrote the Depository Institutions Act, which also passed in 1980, deregulating savings and loans and allowing banks to adjust mortgage rates as they saw fit. The DIA passed with broad majorities in both Houses, although it was later criticized.

Deregulation was a major theme of the 96th Congress. In addition to the RFA and the DIA, Representative Harley Staggers (Democrat-West Virginia) wrote the Rail Act of 1980; Senator Howard Cannon (Democrat-Nevada) wrote the Airline Deregulation Act of 1979; and Senator Paul Tsongas (Democrat-Massachusetts) wrote the Motor Carrier Act of 1980, which deregulated the trucking industry

Another prominent bill passed was the Dole Act of 1980, named after its sponsor, Senator Robert Dole of Kansas. The Dole Act gave inventors “intellectual property control” of their inventions, rather than the government.

In foreign affairs, Congress passed the Taiwan Act. The Act recognizes two states, one the “People's Republic of China” and one the “Republic of China”; it defines the “Republic of China”'s territory as comprising the island of Taiwan, the Island of Itu Aba, the Penghu Islands, the Kinmen Islands, the Matsu Islands, and the Pratas Islands.[2]

Nevertheless, the economy remained poor, as the nation was entering the end of the Long Recession, which lasted from 1973 till 1981.[3] Additionally, the bad news of the Soviet invasion of Iran[4] came just a week before the 1980 midterms.

Incumbent Deaths During the 96th Congress

Three Senators died during the 96th Congress, and one resigned.

Senator Richard Schweiker had resigned during the waning days of 1978, as he had been elected to the office of Vice President of the United States. The incumbent Republican Governor of Pennsylvania, Dick Thornburgh, nominated former Pennsylvania district attorney Arlen Specter to the Senate. This was compared to Reagan's nomination of Rockefeller for Secretary of State – Thornburgh and Specter had ran against each other in the Republican primary for Governor of Pennsylvania earlier that year.

Senator Dewey Bartlett of Oklahoma, a Republican, died on March 1, 1979. Democratic state Governor George Nigh chose to appoint a Democrat, former Governor David Boren, to Bartlett's seat. This Democratic pickup was later cancelled out by the death of Hubert Humphrey.

Senator James Allen of Alabama, a Democrat, died on June 1, 1979. Democratic Alabama Governor Fob James nominated his widow, Maryon Pittman Allen, to serve until his term's conclusion.

Prominent Senator Hubert Humphrey died on January 13, 1980, of bladder cancer in Waverly, Minnesota. Humphrey, who had served as Vice President and been the Democratic nominee for President in 1968, was mourned by all. Politically, his death resulted in a Republican pickup, as Governor Quie nominated David Durenberger to Humphrey's seat. Durenberger, a political unknown, had been the sacrificial-lamb Republican nominee against Walter Mondale in 1978, and came from behind to nearly beat him.

Congressional Elections

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Democrats picked up 7 seats in the midterms of 1980, resulting in a Senate split 50-49-1, with independent Harry Byrd, Jr., of Virginia siding with the Democrats, resulting in what was effectively a Democratic majority of 51-49. Walter Mondale, of Minnesota, regained his old office of Senate Majority Leader.

What was even more astounding was that six of the seven Democratic pickups were defeats of incumbents. In Florida, state Treasurer Bill Gunter defeated incumbent Senator Jack Eckerd; in Kentucky, the mayor of Louisville, Harvey Sloane, defeated incumbent Senator Marlow Cook; in the Minnesota special election, former Governor Wendell Anderson defeated appointed Republican Senator David Durenberger; in New York, Congresswoman Elizabeth Holtzman defeated liberal Republican Jacob Javits, who had insisted on running for reelection in spite of being on his deathbed; in Oregon, little-known state Senator Ted Kulongoski defeated incumbent Republican Bob Packwood; and finally, in Pennsylvania, former Mayor of Pittsburgh and nearly-successful 1978 gubernatorial candidate Pete Flaherty defeated appointed Senator Arlen Specter.

Oklahoma's unique shade signifies one Democratic pickup and one Democratic hold. Appointed Senator David Boren won the special election, whereas in the regularly-scheduled election, incumbent Republican Senator Henry Bellmon retired and a heartbreaker election occurred between the Democratic Mayor of Oklahoma City, Andy Coats, and Republican state Senator (and Bartlett protege) Don Nickles. By a margin of less than 200 votes, Coats defeated Nickles – this result took several recounts to determine, and, as the matchup also decided control of the Senate, the recounts received nationwide attention.

Other prominent elections occurred in Alabama, where appointed Democratic placeholder Maryon P. Allen startled the state by running for reelection and winning; Alaska, where Mike Gravel won a primary and then the general election in two extremely close races; Connecticut, where Democratic U.S. Representative Chris Dodd was elected to the seat of retiring Democratic senator Abraham Ribicoff; Georgia, where segregationist Democrat Herman Talmadge was nevertheless easily reelected; Idaho, where respected Democratic senator Frank Church was also easily reelected; and Illinois, where state Secretary of State Alan Dixon replaced retiring Senator Adlai Stevenson III (some speculated Stevenson had retired to mount a challenge to Reagan in 1982...)

Still other prominent elections occurred in Indiana, where Republican senator Richard Lugar was easily reelected; Iowa, where Democratic senator John Culver successfully beat back an energetic Republican challenger; New Hampshire, where Democratic senator John Durkin did likewise; North Carolina, where Democrat Robert B. Morgan was easily reelected; North Dakota, where longtime U.S. Representative Mark Andrews was elected to the senate to replace longtime now-retiring senator Milton Young; South Dakota, where incumbent Republican Leo Thorsness did not face a significant challenge; Vermont, where Republican Richard Mallary was also not seriously challenged; Washington, where longtime Senator Warren Magnuson was almost defeated in what would have been a stunning upset, had it occurred; and finally Wisconsin, where Senator Gaylord Nelson was easily reelected.

The picture was similarly bad for the Republicans in the House, where the Democrats gained 30 seats to retake the chamber, 226-209; Tip O'Neill again became Speaker of the House.

Gubernatorial Elections

The 1979 elections failed to appreciatively forecast the upcoming disaster for Republicans. In Kentucky and Mississippi, incumbent Democratic governors Julian Carroll and Cliff Finch were term-limited, and were replaced by Kentucky Fried Chicken CEO John Brown, Jr., and former lieutenant governor William Winter, respectively; but in Louisiana, term-limited Democratic governor Edwin Edwards was replaced by Republican U.S. Representative Dave Treen, a left-over from the success of 1978.

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Democrats also picked up 4 Governors' Mansions. In Missouri, incumbent Republican Govenor Kit Bond was term-limited, and he was replaced by Democratic former Jackson County Prosecuting Attorney Joe Teasdale. It was Teasdale's third run for the Govenor's Mansion. In New Hampshire, state Representative Hugh Gallen upset incumbent Republican Governor Meldrim Thomson (who had been the vice-presidential nominee in 1974); in North Dakota, former Governor Arthur Link returned after four years to defeat incumbent Republican Allen Olson; and in Washington, state Senator Jim McDermott defeated incumbent Republican governor John Spellman.

Other races were less exciting. In Arkansas and Delaware, incumbent Governors Clinton and du Pont won reelection; in Indiana, term-limited Otis Bowen was replaced by fellow Republican Robert Orr after a Democratic recruiting failue. In Montana, term-limited governor Judge was replaced by fellow Democrat Ted Schwinden; in North Carolina, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, and West Virginia, Governors Hunt, Garrahy, Romney, Snelling, and Rockefeller were reelected (respectively).

Footnotes

[1] Note that this is two years earlier and is more substantial than OTL, as they to not have to appease a Democratic House majority.

[2] Again, this is more extreme than OTL; the U.S. Has not, since 1979, used the phrase “Republic of China” (only “Taiwan”); it does not conduct formal relations with Taiwan, and it only recognizes its claim to Taiwan itself and the Penghu Islands.

[3] The definition of recession is somewhat more broad ITTL.

[4] The foreign affairs update will follow the 1982 presidential election.

The First Term of Ronald Reagan (cont.)

After the hit Reagan's party took in the 1980 midterms, with Democrats taking both Houses of Congress, the 97th Congress was largely a do-nothing Congress, as disagreement between the President and Congress served as a roadblock to legislation.

With hindsight, probably the most important bill passed by the 97th Congress was the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, which was passed on January 7, 1982; it regulated the disposal of nuclear waste, both existing and waste which was projected to be brought into existence in the future.

A major controversy during the 97th Congress was that of the Equal Rights Amendment. Passed by the Senate in 1973, with a deadline of ratification in 1979, in 1978 the Democratic-controlled Congress saw fit to extend the deadline to 1982. Finally, after nine years, the ERA was added to the Constitution in 1981.

But only temporarily, for just several days later the Supreme Court ruled that the 1978 deadline had been unconstitutional; and that since the Amendment had not been passed by 1979, it was not a part of the Constitution.

The uproar over this decision was tremendous; indeed, in 1981, Congress (controlled by Democrats) again passed the selfsame Amendment, again with a five-year deadline – that is, the Amendment had to be passed at 1986. President Reagan remained neutral; noting merely that he would respect the decisions of the Supreme Court. Notably, Reagan nominated Sandra Day O'Connor, a woman, to replace retiring Justice Potter Stewart. O'Connor was the second woman ever nominated to the Supreme Court; the first, Shirley Hufstedler, had been appointed by President Kennedy to replace Justice Bill Douglas in 1975.

The air traffic controllers strike also occurred during the 97th Congress, beginning on August 3, 1981. Reagan gave the controllers 48 hours to return to work or forfeit their jobs. After they failed to return, on August 5 Reagan fired them all and banned them from ever again working for the federal government – though Reagan himself later lifted the ban in 1986.

However, the 97th Congress was the beginning of a better 1980s, as the Long Recession is considered to have ended in October of 1981. Reagan's popularity rose, and when the presidential election came along, Reagan was considered at least a slight favorite over the Democratic field.

Republican Primaries

The most prominent Republican to run against Reagan was the former Governor of Minnesota, Harold Stassen. Reagan would win every primary with over 90% of the vote; he and Vice President Schweiker were triumphantly, near-unanimously nominated at the Convention. (A single delegate voted for Reagan's appointed Ambassador to the United Nations, Jeane Kirkpatrick).

Democratic Primaries

The Democratic primaries, on the other hand, were more chaotic. Eight candidates ran for the nomination; former Vice President Terry Sanford, of North Carolina; Senator Gary Hart, of Colorado; Senator Elizabeth Holtzman, of New York; Senator John Glenn, of Ohio; former Senator and 1972 nominee George McGovern, of South Dakota; Senator Ernest Hollings, of South Carolina; former Governor Reubin Askew, of Florida; and lastly, Senator Scoop Jackson of Washington decided to try for a last hurrah.

After former President Ted Kennedy chose not to run, there was absolutely no frontrunner whatsoever. Most early polls showed Sanford, Jackson, and Glenn tied for first place, with Hart and Holtzman not far behind. Although seen as a serious candidate, Senator Hollings dropped out early on in favor of Sanford; as did Askew. McGovern, after doing very poorly in several early primaries, also chose to drop out.

Iowa, a close contest between Sanford and Hart, decided itself in favor of Sanford. In New Hampshire, where Holtzman was seen as favored, Jackson unexpectedly upset her; later on, Holtzman won Vermont while Hart would win Wyoming.

Five primaries held on March 13 would see Sanford's first victories, in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, while Holtzman won Massachusetts and Jackson Rhode Island. Having failed to gain even a single victory, Glenn at this point dropped out, leaving four seemingly evenly matched candidates: Sanford, Holtzman, Hart, and Jackson.

Jackson won a surprise victory in Illinois, only to have Holtzman win Connecticut. Unfortunately for Holtzman, Jackson would narrowly edge her out in her home state of New York; prompting Holtzman to drop out and giving Jackson the title of seeming frontrunner. (Ironically, on that same day, Holtzman won a surprise victory in Wisconsin).

On April 10, the Pennsylvania primary occurred, with Jackson, Sanford, and Hart the only remaining candidates. Sanford very narrowly defeated Jackson. The next day, Sanford won Tennessee whereas Hart triumphed in the District of Columbia primary.

On May 5, Sanford won Louisiana; four primaries on the 8th saw Hart win Maryland and Ohio, while Jackson won Indiana and Sanford utterly dominated in his home state of North Carolina.

On May 15, the Idaho and Nebraska went to Hart, but, Jackson won Oregon. There was then a long pause until the next series of primaries, which were to occur on June 5. Unfortunately, on June 1, 1982, Henry “Scoop” Jackson died suddenly at the age of 70 of an aortic aneurysm.[1] Jackson's widow, Helen, would endorse Sanford.

Campaigning halted as all men across the political spectrum mourned the death of the Senator from Washington. Politically, Sanford had more delegates than Hart, and so became the frontrunner. On June 5, Sanford won California, New Jersey, and West Virginia, while Hart won the lesser contests of Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota. On June 12, Sanford won an upset victory in North Dakota, prompting Hart to drop out and endorse Sanford.

A divided convention saw Sanford win on the first ballot, with many delegates voting for Hart, Holtzman, or even Jackson, in spite of them having dropped out or, in Jackson's case, died. Sanford's initial choice for the vice-presidential nomination was the Governor of Connecticut, Ella Grasso. However, Grasso was forced to drop out after she was diagnosed on August 31 with ovarian cancer.

Sanford, after some thought, ultimately replaced her with a U.S. Representative from Wisconsin, Les Aspin. Aspin, although not female or a minority as Sanford had wanted his running mate to be, was nevertheless good on defense (a weak spot of Sanford's), and hailed from the swing region known as the Midwest.

General Election

During the summer, Sanford was narrowly behind the President. Although Reagan's lead slowly expanded, the so-called 'Grasso bump' from sympathy votes was enough to give Sanford a substantial lead at the beginning of September. However, various Reagan ads (the two most famous of which are 'Morning in America' and 'Bear in the Forest') and a stellar performance at the presidential debate gave Reagan a large lead over Sanford that Sanford was never able to effectively combat; finally, Reagan won a landslide victory over Sanford.

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Ronald Reagan/Richard Schweiker (Republican) 412 EV, 54.8% PV
Terry Sanford/Les Aspin (Democratic) 126 EV, 44.1% PV

Congressional Elections

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Republicans picked up 6 Senate seats in the election of 1982, but Democrats countered with 2 pickups of their own, resulting in an overall result of 4 Republican pickups, and Republican control of the Senate, 53-47. Howard Baker returned to the position of Majority Leader, Walter Mondale regressing to Minority Leader.

Four of the Republican pickups were defeats of incumbent Senators; two pickups were made in the aftermath of a Democratic retirement – in Virginia, where Republican U.S. Representative Paul Trible, Jr., was elected to replace outgoing Independent/Democratic Senator Harry Reid, Jr., and Washington, where incumbent Senator Scoop Jackson had vacated the race in order to run for President, and then died, rendering him incapable of running for office. The Republican nominee, former Governor Daniel Evans, was elected to replace Jackson.

Obviously, four Democratic incumbents were also defeated. In Indiana, U.S. Representative Dan Quayle defeated incumbent Senator Vance Hartke; in Minnesota, Rudy Boschwitz, the founder of Plywood Minnesota, defeated incumbent Senator Wendell Anderson; in Nevada, former state Senator Chic Hecht defeated Senator Howard Cannon; and in New Jersey, scandal-ridden incumbent Democrat Harrison Williams was defeated by liberal, feminist Republican Congresswoman Millicent Fenwick.

Democrats defeated two incumbents, in New York and Tennessee. In New York, the former Mayor of New York City, Mario Cuomo (ITTL, the 1977 Democratic primary runoff was between Cuomo and Beame, rather than Cuomo and Koch; ITTL, Cuomo won and served a single term as Mayor, 1977-1981, before unexpectedly stepping out; in 1981, after another confusing Democratic primary, a runoff occurred between Bella Abzug and Koch, which Abzug won; as of now in the timeline, Bella Abzug is Mayor of New York) defeated incumbent conservative Republican James Buckley; in Tennessee, Democratic U.S. Representative Al Gore, Jr., successfully sought to avenge incumbent Republican Senator Bill Brock's defeat of his father twelve years earlier.

Other notable races included Arizona, where controversial Republican Sam Steiger was narrowly reelected; California, where Republican U.S. Representative Pete Wilson replaced incumbent Republican Senator S.I. Hayakawa, who retired after a single term; Hawaii, where Senator Patsy Mink was reelected; Maine, where Senator Edmund Muskie was reelected; Maryland, where Democratic U.S. Representative Jim Shannon was elected to replace outgoing Democrat Paul Tsongas; Michigan, where Republican Marvin Esch was reelected; Nebraska, where incumbent Republican Senator John McCollister was easily reelected; New Mexico, where incumbent Republican Senator Harrison Schmitt was narrowly reelected following an extremely close race; and Ohio, where Republican Robert Taft, Jr., successfully sought reelection in spite of health problems.

Republicans also picked up a net 17 seats in the House, enough to flip margins exactly; the House went from a 226-209 Democratic majority to a 226-209 Republican majority. Former Speaker John Rhodes of Arizona having retired, Republicans inaugurated Bob Michel of Illinois as Speaker of the House.

Gubernatorial Elections

The gubernatorial elections of 1981 resulted in a single Democratic pickup, as in New Jersey incumbent Republican Ray Bateman was elected to his second term, whereas in Virginia incumbent Republican John N. Dalton was term-limited, and Democrat Chuck Robb was elected to replace him.

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The gubernatorial elections of 1982 were stalemated, as Republicans and Democrats picked up 5 statehouses each, canceling each other out.

[wall-o'-text starts now; read it if you want]

In Alabama, Republican Mayor of Montgomery Emory Folmar defeated incumbent Democratic governor Fob James; in Alaska, Republican former Speaker of the state House of Representatives, Tom Fink, was elected to replace term-limited incumbent Republican Governor Jay Hammond; in Arizona, Democratic state Attorney General Dennis de Concini defeated scandal-plagued incumbent Republican Governor Evan Mecham; in Arkansas, Republican near-successful 1980 gubernatorial candidate Frank White defeated incumbent Democrat Bill Clinton; in California, Republican state Attorney General George Deukmejian replaced incumbent Democratic governor Jerry Brown, who had launched an (unsuccessful) run for the U.S. Senate; in Colorado, Dick Lamm was reelected; in Connecticut, Democratic Lieutenant Governor William O'Neill replaced term-limited (and deathly ill) Democratic incumbent Ella Grasso; in Florida, Republican Governor Paula Hawkins was easily reelected; in Georgia, Democratic state Representative Joe Frank Harris replaced term-limited incumbent Democrat George Busbee; in Hawaii, incumbent Republican John Leopold was reelected; in Idaho, Republican Lieutenant Governor Phil Batt defeated Democratic Governor John Evans; in Illinois, Republican Governor Big Jim Thompson was reelected; in Iowa, Lieutenant Governor Terry Branstad replaced incumbent Governor Robert Ray, who chose not to seek another term; in Kansas, term-limited Republican Robert Bennett was replaced by Democratic state Treasurer Joan Finney; in Maine, Republican incumbent David Emery was reelected; in Maryland, Democratic incumbent Harry Hughes was reelected; in Massachusetts, former Governor Michael Dukakis returned after four years to defeat Republican Governor John Sears; in Michigan, ex-George Romney advisor Richard Headlee was successfully elected Governor, after ex-George Romney Lieutenant Governor (turned Governor) William Milliken chose not to seek another term; in Minnesota, ex-Lieutenant Governor (and failed 1978 candidate) Rudy Perpich was elected after incumbent Republican Al Quie chose to limit his gubernatorial tenure to one term; in Nebraska and Nevada, incumbent Republican Governors Charles Thone and Robert List were reelected; in New Hampshire, former Governor Meldrim Thomson came back to beat incumbent Democrat Hugh Gallen, who had beaten him in 1980 (and had been previously beaten by Thomson in 1978); in New Mexico and New York, incumbent Republican Governors Joe Skeen and Perry Duryea were reelected; in Ohio, former Director of the Peace Corps (and former U.S. Representative) Dick Celeste was elected to replace unpopular term-limited Republican Jim Rhodes; in Oklahoma, Democrat George Nigh was reelected; in Oregon and Pennsylvania, incumbent Republican Governors Victor Atiyeh and Dick Thornburgh were reelected; in Rhode Island, incumbent Democrat John Garrahy was reelected; in South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wisconsin, and Wyoming, incumbent Republican Governors Edward Young, Bill Janklow, Lamar Alexander, Bill Clements, Richard Snelling, Bob Kasten, and John Ostlund were reelected.

OK, I'm tired of not updating this timeline, so I'm just going to write a brief, informal update on what's been going on in the outside world.

In Canada, Trudeau lost the election of 1974 to Stanfield. He handed leadership over to Claude Wagner in 1976, who lost an election to John Turner in 1977. In spite of the Progressive Conservatives, now under Joe Clark, becoming the largest party in the election of 1981, Turner formed a minority government with New Democratic support.

In the U.K., Heath was reelected in 1974, but defeated overwhelmingly in 1979 by James Callaghan's Labour Party. Callaghan was assassinated in 1981 during a visit to Northern Ireland (which hasn't been doing very well ITTL), and was replaced by Tony Benn, causing a large chunk of the party to secede, under the leadership of Denis Healey. The Conservatives were thrown into disarray after Heath's defeat, ultimately choosing Geoffrey Howe as their leader in 1980 after Heath stubbornly refused to resign. As no party could come close to commanding the confidence of the chamber, an election was held in 1981. Argentina's attack on the Falklands came earlier ITTL, and Benn attacked and reconquered them, resulting in a surge of popularity. On Election Day, Labour came in undisputably first, but failed to reach a majority. Jeremy Thorpe (who has avoided his scandal)'s Liberals sided with a Conservative-SDP alliance; although the Conservatives were the largest party in the alliance, ultimately Healey became Prime Minister. All three men had criticized Benn over the Falklands, and they were peacefully signed over to Argentina in July 1982.

I must admit a general lack of knowledge in France, so I'm just going to say Francois Mitterand defeated Valery Giscard d'Estaing by a very narrow margin in 1974, and became unpopular. A splintered right allowed the Socialists to maintain power in Parliament throughout the decade, but Jacques Chirac (who narrowly came in second over Georges Marchais, who came in third, and VGd'E, who came in fourth) defeated Mitterand in the runoff in 1981.

Iberia, on the other hand, has done poorly. Both countries have come under the control of Marxist parties allied to the U.S.S.R.; in Portugal, under Alvaro Cunhal, and in Spain, under Enrique Lister. War nearly broke out over the micronation of Andorra after the revolutionary government abolished the Bishopric of Urgell and imprisoned Joan Marti i Alanis (the French army occupied Llivia), but ultimately Llivia was handed back to the Spanish and a referendum held in Andorra; Sant Julia de Loria and la Massana joined communist Spain, whereas the rest of the country joined France). Notably, elements of the French Communist Party actively campaigned in favor of Andorra being attached to Spain.

After Solidarity held a strike in 1980, the Soviet Union intervened in Poland and crushed it. No Fall of Communism is going to be starting in Poland anytime soon.

The crisis between Greece and Turkey in 1974 became...interesting. Not in a good way. Brezhnev and Hoxha both decided they had something to do with it. The result was Greek annexation of 'East Thrace', 'Ionia', and 'Northern Epirus'. Turkey became a Soviet client state, as did Albania, now under Mehmet Shehu. Turns out Hoxha was right about him. (In real life, Hoxha accused Shehu at his show trial of being a spy for the Soviets, British, Americans, and Yugoslavs all simultaneously.) Brezhnev decided he liked pointless annexations just the same as pointless medals, and made Istanbul and surroundings a 17th Republic. The military regime in Greece ultimately became too scary for even the Soviets to support, and a quiet coup in 1978 but in a more orthodox dictatorship.

Afghanistan has also gone Communist, but it's a nicer place than real life. The Soviets have not decided Hafizullah Amin (the one popular Communist, and truly loyal to the USSR) was a secret CIA agent (whoever thought that was smoking the same stuff as Enver Hoxha).

Iran's overthrow of their Shah was botched, and the USSR invaded and turned the country into a puppet state. Again, Brezhnev loves his annexations-which-can-only-make-the-international-community-hate-you, adding the OTL provinces of West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan, and Ardabil to the Azerbaijani Republic; Golestan to the Turkmen Republic; and forming the Persian Soviet Socialist Republic (#18) out of Gilan and Mazandaran. Notably, in an attempt to de-Pahlavize the remainder of the country, the Soviets renamed Iran to Persia. Saddam Hussein also made good of all the chaos, successfully snapping up Khuzestan. Hussein continues to maintain an antagonistic relationship with Persia - except ITTL this is a Soviet puppet, and this translates to maintaining an antagonistic relationship with the USSR, and therefore a good one with the US. Controversially, Vice President Richard Schweiker visited Iraq in 1983, just as he was taking over Kuwait; Hussein even went so far as to sign a peace treaty with Israel in 1982.

Hussein has also maintained an antagonistic relationship with Saudi Arabia; war has nearly broken out several times. An even more poisonous environment than OTL has led to Qatar and Bahrain joining the UAE, which has become a more 'seven equal Emirs' than 'Abu Dhabi rules!' type place.

The USSR's puppetizing of Turkey greatly antagonized Libyan leader Muammar al-Gadhafi, who formed an alliance with Israel during the War of 1981, in which Israel and Libya fought against an alliance of Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon. (Actually, Gadhafi fought only against Egypt, but that's a distinction frequently overlooked by Arab nationalists). Egypt came under Libyan occupation after the Israeli army controversially handed over the bit they had occupied to Gadhafi. Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin (the right has yet to gain power ITTL) formed the Holy League Association (HLA), an alliance between Israel (having unilaterally annexed most of the West Bank, all of Jerusalem, and all of Sinai), Gaza (Monaco-style; surrounded by Israel but having an avenue to the sea), Jordan (which, funnily enough, gained land from the war they lost; Rabin handed over some of the eastern West Bank because the Intifada was getting annoying), and also Syria and Lebanon.

Interesting news in other parts of the world. After puppetizing Egypt, Gadhafi successfully turned his attention to Sudan and Chad. Meanwhile, Mauritania has kept their third of Western Sahara rather than giving it over to Morocco. Mozambique and Angola have become Communist; East Timor, too, has maintained commie-independence because Suharto was busy with an attempted revolt on West Papua, or something.

The Soviet Union has accepted most of these new converts into the Warsaw Pact, which has become more powerful, having the ability, by 2/3 vote, to do basically anything in a member state. Portugal, Spain, Greece, Turkey, Albania, Iran, Angola, Mozambique, East Timor, Cuba, and Chile (more on that later) have all been admitted into the Pact. In southern Africa, the regimes in Rhodesia and South Africa survive. South Africa's 'bantustan' idea has been more successful ITTL; Swaziland's gotten it's access to the sea, and the CIA has successfully guided Transkei and Ciskei (also Gaza/Monaco style) from being puppets of the South Africa to puppets of the United States, and the juicy U.N. membership that comes with it. Venda and Bophuthatswana remain part of the country.

ITTL in Australia, Whitlam was never dismissed, and successfully won reelection in 1977 and 1980. In 1983 the Liberal/National coalition regained power under John Howard.

Pinochet died after his plane crashed in the Andes mountains and the other passengers ate him. Salvador Allende has led the country into the Warsaw Pact (Cuba joined too), resulting in a more widespread, more violent, and more secretive Operation Condor (records released by President ------ in 2003 would reveal even President Kennedy was unaware of much of what was going on). For example, the Somozas are still in power in Nicaragua.

Mao Yuanxin has taken power in China and some really dark stuff is happening there that I totally did not steal from Drew's excellent timeline Fear, Loathing, and Gumbo on the Campaign Trail '72, posted on alternatehistory.com's After 1900 section, or anything.

Almighty God remains in power in Ethiopia, and the Ogaden War resulted in a (bizarrely enough) Ethiopian puppet state being put in place in Mogadishu.

To the south, Mobutu has received...a lot of aid from the United States. Some of it has gone to helping the people, but most of it has gone to (what else?) conquering Soviet-sympathetic governments that have sprung up around him, in the CAR and in the Republic of the Congo. Although Mobutu intervened in the Angolan Civil War, he failed to stop dos Santos from coming to power, but did come away with the provinces of Cabinda and Zaire.

That was a lot less brief than I had planned...regular updates on American politics coming in the next bit. (Speaking of America, I forgot to note that ITTL the Pacific Trust Territories formally became territories of the United States; and no Panama-Canal-giving-over happened ITTL either). If you have any questions about what's happening anywhere in the world, please don't hesitate to ask.

The Second Term of Ronald Reagan

Vice President: Richard Schweiker
Secretary of State: George Shultz
Secretary of the Treasury: James Baker
Secretary of Defense: Caspar Weinberger
Attorney General: Edwin Meese
Secretary of the Interior: Donald Hodel
Secretary of Agriculture: John R. Block
Secretary of Commerce: Howard Baldrige, Jr.
Secretary of Labor: Ann Dore McLaughlin
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Otis Bowen
Secretary of Education: William Bennett
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Samuel Pierce, Jr.
Secretary of Transportation: Elizabeth Hanford Dole
Secretary of Energy: John Herrington
Chief of Staff: Howard Baker
National Security Advisor: Henry Kissinger

Reagan began his second term with a new Cabinet, firing nearly all first-term Cabinet members, and those that were not fired were shifted to new positions. Although Reagan appointed non-politicians to his Cabinet for the most part, the appointment of Howard Baker as Chief of Staff shifted the Senate balance of power in Reagan's favor, as Senator Bill Brock, a close Reagan ally who had been defeated in 1982, was appointed to the seat after Baker's resignation, losing no seniority and getting a 'second chance' at his political career. Also, Senator Baker's resignation required Republicans to pick a new Senate leader; close Reagan ally Senator Paul Laxalt, of Nevada, was the obvious choice and was chosen as the new Senate Majority Leader. (Democratic Senate leader Walter Mondale became Minority Leader).

The elections of 1982 also reverberated in the House of Representatives, as former Speaker John Rhodes, of Arizona, regained his position, and Democratic leader Tip O'Neill declined to continue as Democratic House leader, instead resigning and retiring to Massachusetts. John McFall of California was chosen as the new Democratic leader in the House, and therefore Minority Leader.

Little legislation of note passed during the first half of Reagan's Senate term. One bill which provoked controversy was the Social Security Amendment of 1983, which proposed an increase in payroll taxes to pay for Social Security. It was opposed by some conservative members of the Republican Party, but opposition cooled after Senate Majority Leader Paul Laxalt came out in favor. The bill passed with over 2/3 of the vote and was signed into law by President Reagan. Legislation to make voting easier for disabled Americans was also passed in mid-1984; the bill, sponsored by Senator Bob Dole of Kansas, enjoyed bipartisan support.

Foreign affairs provoked more controversy. The 1979-1981 war in Iran, which had seen Soviet intervention and resulted in a communist government, lead the Reagan administration to try to foster a closer relationship with Saddam Hussein's dictatorship in Iraq, which vehemently opposed the communist Iranian regime. Covert aid had been given to Iraq during the war, to aid in its takeover of Khuzestan (which Hussein referred to as 'Arabistan') and Kuwait, but many considered Vice President Richard Schweiker's visit to the country and meeting with Hussein in March of 1983 a step too far; the senior Senator from California, Alan Cranston, controversially proposed to break off diplomatic relations with Hussein's regime, a proposal supported by prominent leftists including former Senator and 1972 nominee George McGovern and former Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill.

The Administration tried to paint Hussein as a pro-American liberalizer, making much of his peace treaty with Israel in 1982, but this argument was undercut when, in late 1984, Hussein enacted numerous repressive laws against the Shi'ite majority and Kurd minority. Rioters in Baghdad were fired upon on December 19, 1983, and 56 protesters, of whom 42 were Shi'ite, were killed.

Other Reaganite foreign policy came under attack, including the sponsoring of a military coup in Grenada and support for the Somoza regime in Nicaragua. Reagan's allies in Congress attempted, in July of 1984, to form the so-called 'Ballistic Missile Defense Initiative', an elaborate anti-ballistic missile system which hoped to become an alternative to the previously-relied upon principle of mutually assured destruction (ie, hoping that ballistic missiles would not be fired by pointing, but not firing, your own ballistic missiles at the enemy). Although the plan made it through Congress, public approval for it was low, and it was widely derided as 'Star Wars' by the Senate left.

Additional controversy accompanied the death of Senator Frank Church, of Idaho, in mid-1983. Church, a liberal icon, was replaced in the Senate by Republican Representative Steve Symms, a prominent conservative (increasing the Republican majority to 54-46), leading Senate Democrats to attempt to introduce a constitutional amendment which would require special Senate elections to occur in lieu of gubernatorial appointments. The amendment ultimately passed the Senate by a margin of 56-44, far below the 2/3 (or 67 votes) necessary for approval.

Congressional Elections

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The congressional elections of 1984 were not kind to the Reagan administration, as the principle of the 'six-year itch' again reared its head. Democrats picked up 7 Senate seats, to no Republican pickups, regaining the Senate majority 53-47.

Even more embarrassingly, six of those pickups were defeats of incumbents. The one exception was West Virginia, where Senator Arch Moore chose to forego a run for reelection and instead run for Governor of West Virginia; he was replaced by Democratic incumbent Governor Jay Rockefeller.

The remaining six Democratic pickups were defeats. In Alabama, U.S. Representative Richard Shelby defeated incumbent Senator James Martin; in Illinois, U.S. Representative Paul Simon defeated incumbent Senator Charles Percy; in Iowa, U.S. Representative Tom Harkin defeated incumbent Senator Roger Jepsen; in Massachusetts, state Lieutenant Governor John Kerry defeated incumbent Senator Edward Brooke, leaving the Senate devoid of African-Americans; in New Jersey, prominent businessman Frank Lautenberg defeated conservative icon Senator Jeffrey Bell; and in North Carolina, Governor Jim Hunt defeated other conservative icon Senator Jesse Helms.

Counting Moore, there were only three retirements, a remarkable low. In Minnesota, Senator Walter Mondale chose to forego reelection to focus on a planned run for the Presidency in 1986; he was replaced by Minnesota Secretary of State Joan Growe. In Texas, John Tower was replaced by fellow Republican U.S. Representative Phil Gramm.

In other prominent races, Senators Symms in Idaho and Brock in Tennessee were both easily reelected, in spite of Democratic opposition to their appointments – Symms was reelected together with his Republican colleague, James McClure. In Kentucky, businessman Mitch McConnell nearly upset incumbent Democrat Walter Huddleston in the closest Republicans came to a pickup; in Michigan, Robert Griffin won a narrow, unexpected victory and in Nebraska, aged Senator Carl Curtis was reelected yet again.

The outlook in the House was similarly poor for Republicans. Democrats picked up a net of 30 seats on their way to a 239-196 majority, and McFall became Speaker. As Rhodes had retired, Illinois Representative Bob Michel became House Minority Leader.

In the Senate, Laxalt was demoted to Minority Leader. The frontrunner for the Democratic leadership was the senior Senator from West Virginia, Robert Byrd, but he was opposed by some liberals for his historical pro-segregation views, and some tried to convince William Proxmire of Wisconsin or Alan Cranston of California to run, but both declined, and Byrd became Majority Leader.

Gubernatorial Elections

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The gubernatorial elections were better for Republicans than congressional ones. Republicans picked up 4 Governor's Mansions to 2 Democratic Pickups.

In Arkansas, Democratic former U.S. Representative Jim Guy Tucker returned to defeat Republican Governor Frank White after former Governor Bill Clinton decided to leave politics for another profession; in Delaware, Republican Lieutenant Governor Michael Castle replaced term-limited Republican Governor Pierre du Pont; in Indiana, Republican Robert Orr was easily elected to a second term; in Missouri, state Attorney General John Ashcroft defeated incumbent Democratic Governor Joseph Teasdale; in Montana and New Hampshire, respectively, Democratic and Republican Governors, respectively, Schwinden and Thomson were reelected; in North Carolina, Republican U.S. Representative James Martin was elected Governor after incumbent Democrat Jim Hunt ran for the Senate; in North Dakota, Democrat George Sinner replaced Democrat Arthur Link; in Rhode Island, Republican Edward di Prete was elected Governor to replace Democrat John Garrahy; in Utah, Republican Norman Bangerter replaced Republican Vernon Romney; in Vermont, Democratic state Lieutenant Governor Madeleine Kunin replaced incumbent Republican Richard Snelling, who chose not to seek reelection to focus on a hypothetical run for President in 1986; in Washington, Democratic Governor Jim McDermott was reelected; and in West Virginia, Republican Senator (and former Governor) Arch Moore returned to the Governor's Mansion, replacing Democratic Governor Jay Rockefeller, who, ironically, received Moore's Senate office.

The Second Term of Ronald Reagan (cont.)

One of the very first bills passed by the new Democratic Congress was the Gramm-Hollings Balanced Budget Act of 1985. The deficit, which had been slowly increasing ever since the Johnson Presidency, had by then reached the largest level in human history, something which Senator Phil Gramm (R-Texas) was quick to point out.

The various spending caps of the GHBBA failed to create a balanced budget in FY86, but did successfully dent the deficit; although the bill was actually co-written by Senator Ernest Hollings (D-South Carolina), Gramm received most of the credit, setting himself up for his eventual run for the presidency.

A more liberal endeavour Congress embarked upon in 1985 was COBRA (the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act), which charged all employers with more than 20 full-time employees an excise tax if their group health plan did not meet certain requirements.

Later that year, the Firearm Owners Protection Act was passed, loosening the restrictions of the Gun Control Act of 1968.

The first major bill passed in 1986 was the bipartisan Department of Defense Reorganization Act, championed in the Senate by former presidential candidate Barry Goldwater (R-Arizona); it passed the Senate universally. The bill increased the powers of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the expense of various bureaucrats in the Department of Defense, and clearly outlined the entire chain of command from top to bottom, starting with the President and finishing with combatant commanders.

The Immigration Reform and Control Act, also passed in 1986, made it illegal for anyone to hire illegal immigrants, but also controversially gave amnesty to all immigrants who had been in the United States before 1982.

The Tax Reform Act of 1986, sponsored by U.S. Representatives Bill Bradley (D-New Jersey) and Dick Gephardt (D-Missouri), greatly simplified the income tax code; although sponsored by two Democrats, the revenue neutral Act received great support from conservatives and was easily ferried through both Houses of Congress.

Republican Primaries

The original two favorites in the Republican primaries of 1986 were Senator Paul Laxalt, of Nevada, representing the conservatives (who held a lead in Iowa), and Vice President Richard Schweiker, of Pennsylvania, who held a lead in New Hampshire.

Several less prominent candidates were also in the running. The term-limited Governor of Wisconsin, Bob Kasten, announced a run for the Presidency, as did long-time Governor of New Hampshire (and 1974 vice-presidential nominee) Meldrim Thomson; Senator Bob Dole, of Kansas; along with the former Governor of Delaware, Pete du Pont, and prominent televangelist Pat Robertson.

As the other candidates came to be better-known, both Laxalt and Schweiker came to sink in polling. Iowa became a three-way tie between Laxalt, Dole, and Kasten; while Schweiker and Thomson competed for New Hampshire, with du Pont not far behind. Robertson, although he polled in the double-digits in Iowa, largely failed to catch on and dropped out in September.

With no clear frontrunner, many prominent party figures came to worry about the possibility of no candidate present at the convention; also, most of the Democrats running led most of the Republicans running in polling. Enter George Bush.

Bush had held a variety of prominent government positions, including a spot in the House of Representatives; Ambassador to the United Nations; and Chairman of the Republican National Committee; during the Reagan presidency, Bush had at first served as Director of the C.I.A., but was then promoted to Deputy Secretary of State; and served as Acting Secretary of State during Schweiker's visit to Iraq in 1983 before George Shultz was nominated, and was credited by various administration figures for advising against it.

Bush made a positive impression on many voters, and quickly shot to the top of nationwide polls, although he remained behind the pack in both Iowa and New Hampshire, where the established candidates had already formed bases of support.

Thus, when New Year's Day 1986 rolled around, the identity of the Republican nominee was not just far from clear but downright opaque. The night before the Iowa caucus, prominent political analyst William Clinton predicted a Dole victory, followed by Bush, then Kasten, and then Laxalt.

Finally, with less than 25% of the vote, the Governor of Wisconsin, Bob Kasten, carried Iowa. George Bush came in second; Bob Dole third; Richard Schweiker fourth; Meldrim Thomson fifth; Paul Laxalt sixth; and Pete du Pont seventh. An astounding total of six candidates won double-digits.

Reverberations of the Iowa vote occurred immediately, as Laxalt and Dole, who had both staked their chances on the state, dropped out, with Laxalt announcing that he was permanently leaving politics.

New Hampshire was also unclear before the final vote. New Hampshire ultimately selected favorite son Meldrim Thomson, followed by George Bush; then Richard Schweiker; then Bob Kasten; and then Pete du Pont in last place. Schweiker and du Pont both dropped out.

Three candidates were left – Governor Meldrim Thomson of New Hampshire; Governor Bob Kasten of Wisconsin; and State Department official George Bush of Texas.

Thomson's victory in New Hampshire brought him more attention than the media had afforded him previously, as conservatives and evangelicals surveyed his record and liked what they saw. Two days after New Hampshire, Thomson was endorsed by former candidate Pat Robertson; it appeared clear that he had the momentum, though many prominent Republicans worried about his electability.

The next contest, in Michigan, was easily won by Bob Kasten, who was after all from the neighboring state of Wisconsin; Thomson came in second place, Bush third.

In Hawaii, Bush won his first victory; Thomson came in second and Kasten third. In the next contest, Kansas, the candidates all tried to obtain Senator Dole's endorsement, which many thought could prove decisive; however, Dole refused to endorse and the state ultimately went to Thomson, with Bush and Kasten almost exactly tied for second place, Kasten edging out Bush by less than 100 votes.

In the next contest, Nevada, Bush won again; on March 1st, Minnesota and South Dakota voted; Minnesota supporting Kasten and South Dakota Thomson. The next day, Wyoming also backed Thomson; and a week after that, Maine, which polling showed a safe Bush state, unexpectedly backed Thomson.

Bush dropped out after losing Maine, supporting Kasten, who by this time had built up a fairly heavy delegate lead over Thomson; Kasten was also supported by most 'establishment' Republicans, who saw him as a more electable and charismatic candidate than Thomson. Nevertheless, the next three primaries – Alaska, Vermont, and South Carolina, in that order – were all won by Thomson. Although Kasten maintained his delegate lead, Thomson had the momentum and was seen by some as the inevitable nominee.

Both candidates came to focus on the 'Super Tuesday' contests of March 15th, in which seventeen, largely Southern states all voted simultaneously. A victory on Super Tuesday, for either candidate could break the balance. Although Thomson held many polling leads, momentum shifted to Kasten, who was better-funded and seen as more electable; a series of gaffes by Thomson at a debate on March 12th also did the candidate no favors.

Kasten won decisively. He won 10 states to Thomson's 7, breaking into the South and largely carrying the more populous states. Kasten carried Florida, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Washington; to Thomson's Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Oklahoma; essentially limiting Thomson to the South.

Although Kasten had effectively won the nomination, Thomson remained in the race, not dropping out until the convention, even scoring a single victory in Idaho, while Kasten became presumptive nominee. At the convention, Thomson, not all that enthusiastically, endorsed Kasten. Kasten, who had lurched right during the primaries leading into his victory on Super Tuesday, chose moderate retiring New York Governor Perry Duryea as his running mate.

Democratic Primaries

The Democrats were just as disorganized as the Republicans. The contest, at first, was intended to be a conflict between former Democratic Senate leader Walter Mondale of Minnesota, a protege of Hubert Humphrey, who led in Iowa, and Senator Elizabeth Holtzman of New York, who had ran in 1982, who led in New Hampshire. A distinct third choice also existed in Senator Gary Hart of Colorado, who had also ran in 1982 and whom polling showed ran second in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Several additional candidates also ran. Harold Washington, the Mayor of Chicago, focused on Iowa; he was one of the first truly serious African-American candidates for the Presidency. Governor Michael Dukakis, of Massachusetts, focused on New Hampshire; Senator Al Gore, of Tennessee, ran well in the South, but failed to make much headway in the early states, and dropped out in mid-December.

The Democratic primaries in 1986 followed almost the exact same schedule as the Republican ones.

The field opened in Iowa with a decidedly underwhelming performance by alleged frontrunner Walter Mondale, who had been campaigning for several years but nevertheless placed third, behind winner Harold Washington and second-place candidate Gary Hart. Elizabeth Holtzman and Michael Dukakis, who had both done little campaigning, placed fourth and fifth, respectively.

Mondale's campaign was fatally wounded and he dropped out. Hart, who came in only a percentage point behind Washington, spun himself as a 'Comeback Kid', having done well in spite of allegations of an extramarital affair, took the lead in New Hampshire polling.

Hart successfully won New Hampshire, with Holtzman placing second, Dukakis third, and Washington fourth. Holtzman and Dukakis, who had both staked their campaigns, dropped out, leaving the primaries a two-way match between Washington and Hart.

Although Hart took a decisive lead in national polling, he was damaged by an upset Washington victory in Michigan; Hart then recovered with a string of victories in Hawaii, Kansas, and Nevada. He split the March 1st primaries with Washington, as Washington carried Minnesota while Hart won South Dakota. Washington shifted his campaign to the South, hoping to carry the March 12th South Carolina primary (he was aided by former polling leader Al Gore endorsing Washington on the 11th).

In the meantime, Hart won Wyoming, Maine, Alaska, and Vermont, but Washington won a decisive victory in South Carolina with almost 2/3 of the vote. Washington was also aided, in the runup to Super Tuesday, by an endorsement by former Alabama Governor and presidential candidate George Wallace.

Finally, with both candidates tied and hoping for a decisive victory, Super Tuesday rolled along. Both candidates carried 8 states (Hart won Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, and Washington to Washington's Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia), but the biggest prize, Texas, remained too close to call for several days. On March 23rd, the same day as Washington's decisive victory in Illinois, Texas was finally called for Hart, giving him a decisive lead in the delegate count and providing momentum, which was used over the next days for victories in Connecticut and Colorado, but was halted when Washington roared back in Wisconsin.

With both candidates hoping for a victory in the May 3rd Pennsylvania primary, focus shifted to Pennsylvania as both candidates campaigned furiously in the state. Hart was helped along by the endorsement of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bob Casey, and decisively won the state. By now, most of the media viewed a Washington victory as extremely unlikely, but Washington refused to drop out, winning D.C. and scoring an upset in Indiana on May 10th even as Hart carried Ohio. Over the next several days, Hart won additional victories in Oregon and Idaho, prompting Washington to drop out on Memorial Day.

Hart and Washington held a joint rally on June 7th, at which Hart promised to name Washington his vice-presidential candidate; but, following a near-fatal heart attack on July 10th, Washington backed out (in fact also promising not to seek reelection to the Mayoralty in 1987), prompting media speculation about the new vice-presidential candidate.

On the first day of the convention, Hart picked Senator Claiborne Pell, of Rhode Island, as his running mate. Although at first criticized for choosing an older, white male, Pell's grandfatherly appearance balanced out Hart's youthfulness, and polling in mid-October suggested Pell was more popular than Hart, Kasten, or Duryea.

General Election

Although hypothetical polling before either of the two were nominated usually showed Hart leading Kasten, Kasten attained his party's nomination first, enabling him to campaign in swing states while Hart was still battling Washington; and when September and the general election season came, the election was too close to call; and so it remained up until Election Day.

1986 Election Night Coverage

6:30 PM

CLINTON: Good evening, folks, and welcome once again to Newstime with Bill Clinton. This is a special edition, as CNN has graciously allowed us to continue until a winner has been announced in the presidential election.

[intermittent cheers from the audience]

CLINTON: I would like to introduce the map which we will be using in the election.

(

)

As you can see, as of right now, the map is entirely gray. In the presidential election, gray will mean states that are still voting; green will mean states which have finished voting, but where there is still no clear winner; red means a victory for Hart; and blue a victory for Kasten. We will keep a running tally of electoral votes; keep in mind 270 are necessary for a victory.

We will also be using this map for the Senate and gubernatorial elections this year; the same key will be used, but gray will also mean states which are not voting whatsoever. We won't have a map going of House elections; sorry.

And with that, I would like to introduce our Election Night Great American Panel!

[cheers from the audience]

CLINTON: Deputy Secretary of State George Bush! The senior Senator from Texas, Lloyd Bentsen! The junior Senator from Indiana, Dan Quayle! And the Mayor of Chicago, Harold Washington!

[The members of the Election Night Great American Panel walk onstage and sit down to general applause.]

CLINTON: With the first states closing in

[checks watch]

twenty-six minutes, if I could hear your predictions? Senator?

BENTSEN: Probably a very close Hart victory, I would say. The Democrats keep the House, but I would say Senate polling seems to suggest a narrow Republican takeover.

WASHINGTON: Be an optimist, Lloyd.

[laughter]

BUSH: I'd have to disagree with you there, Lloyd.

BENTSEN: You have in the past.

BUSH: [chuckling]

CLINTON: For those who missed the joke, Misters Bush and Bentsen ran against each other for a Senate seat in 1970.

BUSH: Yes, Bill. Back to the topic at hand – I'd have to predict a Kasten victory. It'll be close, I don't doubt, but Kasten seems to have the upper hand.

CLINTON: Senator Quayle?

QUAYLE: Of course he does. I would also not hesitate to say that Republicans will take both Houses of Congress.

CLINTON: Glad to hear your opinions, gentlemen.

[facing audience]

We're going to commercial break now, but when we come back, the first states close, with the first actual votes being counted! It's all right here, on Newstime with Bill Clinton.

[commercial break]

1986 Election Night Coverage (cont.)

7:00 PM

CLINTON: Hello again, folks. Now that it's seven o'clock, polls have closed in seven states – Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia. We also have several calls.

We can call the states of South Carolina and Virginia for Kasten.

PRESIDENT
South Carolina
()
[X] Bob Kasten

PRESIDENT
Virginia
()
[X] Bob Kasten

The remaining five states remain too close to call. Thus, as of right now, Kasten leads, 20-0. Kasten supporters shouldn't be getting complacent, but neither should Hart supporters be getting worried; in general, the states which close early were expected to favor Kasten.

(

)

In these seven states, four Senate elections were being held; Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Vermont. The election in Kentucky, between Senator Harvey Sloane and his Republican challenger, Larry Forgy, remains too close to call; but in Georgia, South Carolina, and Vermont, two Democratic and one Republican incumbents have been easily reelected.

SENATE
Georgia
()
[X] Herman Talmadge

SENATE
South Carolina
()
[X] Ernest Hollings

SENATE
Vermont
no image available, sorry
[X] Richard Mallary

(

)

Additionally, Georgia, South Carolina, and Vermont were holding gubernatorial contests. We can definitely say that the Governor of Georgia, Joe Frank Harris, has been reelected.

GOVERNOR
Georgia
()
[X] Joe Frank Harris

(

)

The gubernatorial elections in South Carolina, between U.S. Representative Carroll Campbell, Jr., and state Lieutenant Governor Michael Daniel, and in Vermont, which is holding a three-way race between incumbent Democratic Governor Madeleine Kunin, Republican state Lieutenant Governor Peter Smith, and the Mayor of Burlington, Bernie Sanders, who is running as an independent. In Vermont, we can definitively say that either Smith or Kunin, not Sanders, will be the winner, but we are unable to say which.

Electoral Tally:
Kasten/Duryea 20
Hart/Pell 0

Senate Tally:
Republican 41
Democratic 29

Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Election What-ifs? => Topic started by: Vosem on December 15, 2010, 05:40:33 PM