Talk Elections

Just as an FYI - don't be surprised to see Texas GOPers try to use Aaron Pena's recent switch to steal a seat (I doubt it's successful - but others have noted it too, and gaining four seats makes it more likely).

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The district in blue is District 10 in which Lloyd Doggett would face off against Michael McCaul. This district is 46 percent white 12 percent black 35 percent Hispanic 6 percent Asian and 1 percent Other. Obama got 71 percent in this district, so Doggett would most likely mop the floor against McCaul.

The pink district is District 31 which includes the least liberal areas of Travis County and the most liberal areas of Williamson County. A very swing district where Obama got slightly over 50 percent. John Carter would be the incumbent in this district. Not sure who would run against him though. The whites in this district are far more progressive than whites in the rest of the state as this district is 76 percent white.

Considering the make up of next years legislature, a likely speaker who isn't afraid to Gerrymander, and a douchebag governor,  Doggett probably won't get such a nice looking district as the one in your map shows.

Yeah, he will. Austin is growing too fast and is too strongly Democratic to try to split up any more. It would just make Republican incumbents vulnerable. The Republicans will give Doggett a very safe seat and pack the Democrats in Austin in.

I suspect the Texas GOP's interest in playing with Doggett will be directly inverse to the number of Hispanic districts they're forced to draw. 

Nevertheless, never, ever underestimate what Texas lawmakers will attempt to get away with in redistricting.  The plan for subdividing Austin into a million pieces is probably out there.

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This is the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex.

I will start with the blue district which is District 32. This district is a microcosm of what Dallas County politically speaking looked like 20 years ago. This district is 55 percent white and McCain got 54 percent in this district. Pete Sessions and Kenny Marchant would face each other in a primary in this district

The district in green is District 5. This district is 44 percent white, 23 percent black, 3 percent Asian, 29 percent Hispanic and 1 percent other. Obama got 59 percent in this district. Jeb Hensarling would run in this district, but he would have to run as an Olympia Snowe like Republican to keep this seat.

The district in purple is District 30. This district is 29 percent white, 35 percent black, 3 percent Asian, 34 percent Hispanic and 9 percent other. Obama got 74 percent in this district. Eddie Bernice Johnson would run in this district. She is currently in her mid 70s, so Royce West or Rafael Anchia may run in this district when she retires.

The turqoise district is District 24. This district is 52 percent white and Obama got 53 percent in this district. If Martin Frost ever wants to make a political comeback, this seat is open for him. If not, State Senator Wendy Davis or State Rep Mark Veasey or Lon Burnam could run here.

The district in silver is District 33. This has a lot of wealthy areas like Southlake, Richland Hills, Grapevine, Euless etc. This district is 73 percent white and McCain got 62 percent in this district. I'm not sure who would run in this district, maybe State Rep. Vicki Truitt?

The light purple looking district is District 12. This takes in western Tarrant County plus some counties to the north and west. This district is 75 percent white and McCain got 65 percent in this district. Kay Granger should be more than happy to run in this district.

The yellow district is District 3. This takes in parts of Collin County. This is a very affluent district and 76 percent white. McCain got 61 percent in this district. Sam Johnson of course would represent this district, but he is currently 80 years old. Once he retires, I could see Florence Shapiro run in this district.

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The district in yellow is District 18. This district is 31 percent white 22 percent black 4 percent Asian and 43 percent Hispanic. Obama got 65 percent of the vote here. Sheila Jackson Lee would run in this district. Although not as strongly democratic as the original TX-18, Sheila will be fine here.

The orange district is District 9. This district takes south central Houston, plus some black Missouri City neighborhoods in Fort Bend County. This district is 20 percent white, 37 percent black, 11 percent Asian, and 32 percent Hispanic. Obama got 73 percent here. Safe democrat.

The light green district is District 29. It takes in northeastern Harris County. Gene Green and Ted Poe would run up against each other. It would be a toss up race. This district is 43 percent white 20 percent black 3 percent Asian and 34 percent Hispanic. Obama got 51 percent of the vote here.

The purple district is district 34. It takes in the fast growing northwest part of Harris County. This district is 55 percent white and McCain got 58 percent of the vote here. State Senator Dan Patrick may run here.

The light green district in west Houston is District 7. This district is 58 percent white and McCain got 59 percent of the vote here. John Culberson should be fine here.

The puke green district to the southeast, District 35, is what puzzles me. This district is very working class with Pasadena, Baytown, Deer Park, LaPorte all being blue collar communities. But McCain got 55 percent here. What's more interesting is that this district is 47 percent white 5 percent black 3 percent Asian and 44 percent Hispanic. Maybe many hispanics aren't old enough to vote yet or maybe the whites in this district are Archie Bunker types. Some republican from the legislature will probably run here, but the district should be competitive by 2018 or 2020.

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This is the San Antonio area. The light green area is District 20. This takes in the urban precincts in San Antonio and is 21 percent white 10 percent black 2 percent Asian 66 percent Hispanic and 1 percent Other. Barack Obama got 64 percent in this district. Charlie Gonzalez should be fine in this district.

The light blue district is District 36. This district is very moderate in nature. This district is 46 percent white, 44 percent hispanic, 5 percent black, 3 percent Asian, and 1 percent other. McCain got slightly over 50 percent in this district. I made this district so that if Speaker Joe Strauss ever wants to run for congress, there would be a district waiting for him.

The tan colored district is District 21, this takes in the most exurban (and most republican) parts of Bexar County as well as the donut counties. This district is 60 percent white and McCain got 63 percent here. Lamar Smith should be happy running in this district.

Maldef or Lulac had proposed an Austin-San Antonio district as their remedy back in 2006.  That could pull some Democrats out of Bexar, making Canseco safer.  So Doggett's district becomes a Hispanic-opportunity district.  Create a district in Cameron-Hidalgo, which means Farenthold's district becomes pure Coastal Bend.  And move the Big Bend into Cuellar's district.

As much as I would love to see Harris county districts look that nice, that map would probably see lawsuits with the VRA. Central Harris county should have a majority black district, a two Hispanic majority districts, one on each side. 

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This purple district is District 15. Thanks to population growth, Hidalgo County can have a congressional district entirely within the county. At 88 percent Hispanic, this district could easily be the most hispanic in the country. Barack Obama got 69 percent in this district so Ruben Hinojosa should be safe here.

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This is the El Paso Area. District 16 changes very little. It is 76 percent Hispanic, 18 percent White, 2 percent Asian, and 4 percent Other. Obama got 65 percent in this district so Silvestre Reyes is fine here.

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This is West Central Texas. Right here is District 19 in light orange. Randy Naw-guh-bower would face mike Conaway in a primary. District 19 is probably the smallest it has ever been since it was originally drawn in the 1930s. It takes in the west texas cities of Lubbock Midland and Odessa. Still this is a 59 percent white district and is a safe seat for any republican to run in as McCain got 72 percent here.

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This picture here is of the Edwards Plateau. The district in light brown is District 11. I'm not sure who would run here, maybe Susan King or Jimmie Aycock from the State Assembly. This is a safe republican district at 67 percent white and McCain also getting 67 percent here.

Makes sense from the GOP angle, which means I wouldn't be surprised if they do it.

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This picture here is the same as last, only zoomed out. The tan/light brown looking district would be District 6, where Joe Barton would face Bill Flores in a primary.  It takes in areas directly south of the Metroplex, including Waco. Barton would most likely win considering he has been around a lot longer. This district is 74 percent white and McCain got 69 percent of the vote here, so any Republican is safe.

The pink/ruby looking district is District 8 which takes in the area along I-45 between Houston and Dallas. Kevin Brady would represent this district and at 78 percent white and 73 percent McCain, he is safe here.

Without having to do this myself, are we going to get any realistic looks at what's going to go on here? 

Those who want to post ideas need to start thinking like a partisan Republican that thinks all Dems are Commie fags who rape kids - because that's who will draw the maps.

Chopping up Austin won't get DoJ preclearance and would likely fail in court anyway just like the old border district from DeLay that was shot down.

Remember the last hispanic-opportunity district for Doggett? ;)

Fags who rape kids? Yeah. I for one wouldn't be surprised.

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Here is the area commonly referred to as "North Texas". The red district is District 4. This district is 69 percent white and takes in Rockwall County, Grayson County, rural parts of Collin County, Northeastern Dallas County and some of Hunt County. McCain got 62 percent in this district, so while not as safe as his old district, he should be fine here. But Ralph Hall is 570 years old and should be retiring soon anyways. I could see longtime state rep Joe Driver run in this district if he can put his corruption days behind him.

This also shows a zoomed out view of Kay Granger's new 12th District which is in light purple.

The Pink District is District 26. It takes in all of fast growing Denton County plus some of southern Cooke County. This district is 77 percent white and McCain got 62 percent here, so Burgess is slightly more safe.

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This is the area known as East Texas. Back in the day this area led the nation in lynchings I believe. So naturally a reactionary type is going to represent these districts.

The lime district in the top right (and also shown in the last post) takes in the areas of northeast Texas that used to be in CD 4, plus some areas of CD 1. I renamed this district CD 25. I can see State Senator Bob Deuell run in this district.

The lavender district in the center right of this district is District 1. This belongs to none other than four term congressman Louie Gohmert. He is the epitome of East Texas with his delusions that "homosexuality leads to bestiality" or that "congress has been taken over by demons" or my personal favorite, that "terror babies are crossing the border". At 71 percent white and McCain getting 70 percent in this district, Gohmert can be assured that like minded twats will continue to re-elect him into the foreseeable future.

The darker green district to the southeast is District 2. This has no incumbent and turncoat Allen Ritter may run in this district. This district is not nearly as republican as district 1 due to Jefferson County, which has always been democratic and even voted for Walter Mondale. But this district is still 69 percent white and McCain got 63 percent here, so this district is Safe Republican.

East Texas had some highly decent Congressmen until 2004. (And no, I don't recall ever hearing that Texas led the nation in lynchings. Unless you mean since 1965. Or maybe East Texas led within Texas? Would make sense.)

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This is south central Texas. All the districts are drawn very neatly. The only district that was slightly f---ed up was the district that took in all the areas within a couple miles of Austin-SA. It is in dark brown. Despite being this far south, this district is 65 percent white and McCain got 62 percent in this district. Not sure who would represent this district, which I named CD 23.

The dark blue district takes in most of Corpus Christi and runs through the Gulf Coast all the way up to Lake Jackson. This district is District 14 and Blake Farenthold would face Ron Paul in a primary. This district is 49 percent white, 42 percent hispanic, 7 percent black, 2 percent Asian, and 1 percent other. Despite the low white population, McCain got 60 percent here. A safe republican seat, but could become competitive by the end of the decade.

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This is the far southern parts of Texas. In fact Brownsville is as far south as Miami. This green district is District 27. This is an open seat that would be open for longtime legislature member Rene Oliveira to run in if he wants. This district is 80 percent hispanic 17 percent white 1 percent black 1 percent Asian 1 percent other. Obama got 61 percent here.

Slightly? Lolwut?

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I think this map is a more realistic version of Houston.

Districts 18 and 29 are black and Hispanic, the rest are all fairly strong McCain districts.

That would eliminate a Black (well, Black-held multiracial) district in Houston. Probably not going to fly with the DoJ, I suppose.

(Still, it's more realistic compared to crusher's maps... since Democrats aren't going to draw the map.)

I believe that it is now possible to draw two majority Hispanic districts in addition to one black majority district in the Houston area.  Currently the 9th is a minority coalition district so I assume that it will be altered to become Hispanic majority and the remaining area can be cut up to prevent any new Democrats from getting elected.

Approved by the DOJ and a federal court that had been picked by the Democrats.

Are two Hispanic districts going to be required in Houston? I drew a 60% Hispanic district, but it was still 58% Obama. The rest of the Hispanics I put in Republican districts. I turned the 18th into a lean Republican district that voted 51-49 Mccain. It contains Hispanic areas and north Harris county suburbs, and is about 32% Hispanic. My 8th consists of Montgomery county and then a sliver down into Harris to pick up some Hispanic areas. That district is 29% Hispanic, but still voted for Mccain with 69% of the vote. I suppose that could be considered diluting the vote, and might not get past the courts.

I put all Houston Blacks in one district, which voted about 90-9 Obama. Republicans will definitely try to draw that district, and it's only 60% black so I don't know if that will be considered packing. You definitely can't draw two Black majority districts there. But how good of an argument is to say that Blacks need two opportunity districts? I suspect Hispanics will get another district but Blacks won't. 

I split Austin in four, but I fear I may have drawn too few Hispanic districts overall. I am guessing Austin Hispanics get put into a district with South Texas, though the courts frowned upon that last time, right?

The issue with Hispanics is that unless they're a majority with a sizable black population or, at minimum, over 60% in number (better yet 65%), you never get the result you want in Texas.  They either don't show up - or if they're in the suburbs, they tend to vote more Republican than you want them to.

My gut tells me that the Houston area is going to remain the same and the three minority CDs will simply expand outward to take in more minorities (since the population was either stable or declined).  You can pack the blacks, but then the second Hispanic district will elect a white Dem or maybe a white GOP if you draw it deviously enough.  Besides, the black reps are not going to be happy giving away one of their CDs.

Dallas is rather simple in comparison - the new Hispanic district can be drawn out of 24 and 32 and everyone will be happy.

Rather, the game is going to be in San Antonio, Austin and South Texas.

Yup, Dallas was very easy to draw. Just draw the new Hispanic district and everything falls in place.

Last year I posted a Houston area map assuming 36 districts. It includes a black majority district (light blue 9) and two Hispanic majority districts (yellow 18 and olive 29). CD 29 is a solid 68% Hispanic, and easily defensible as a VRA district. CD 18 is at 57% Hispanic with 21% black and will probably be over 50% Hispanic VAP to satisfy section 2. I'll leave it to the local experts to determine how well it would elect a candidate of choice.

As I drew it there are still only three Harris county districts for Dems. That should give the GOP a shot a the new CD 35 (purple). It's a net increase of minority districts and of GOP districts.

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This district here is of the surrounding area of Houston. The light blue district is District 22. It takes in all of Fort Bend west of HWY 59 and snakes up to Sealy towards College Station. This district is 63 percent white and McCain also got 63 percent here. Pete Olson should be fine here.

The orange looking district south of Harris County is District 17. This district takes in all of Galveston, most of Brazoria, and parts of Fort Bend. This is an open seat and I'm not sure who would run here. But this is a 60 percent white district and McCain got 58 percent here, so a republican would do fine here.

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Here is a zoomed out view of the entire state.

The only districts I haven't mentioned yet are District 13 and 28.

District 13 is in silver. This takes in the northwest area of the state and the entire panhandle. This district is the type of Texas that people think of in the movies: cotton fields, oil rigs, small town football, guns, cowboys, chili cook-offs etc. This district is 69 percent white. This district could easily be the most republican leaning in the country with McCain getting 76 percent here, so Thornberry is fine here. But interestingly enough this is a fairly new phenomenon as Jimmy Carter easily won at least half of the counties in this district in 1976.

District 28 is in purple this takes in most of the Rio Grande Valley and could easily be the largest geographical district in the continental U.S. I thought it was big enough that it wouldn't have to go very far north, but unfortunately I had to take in some leftover cracker counties/precincts in District 19, that are overwhelmingly GOP. This district is 73 percent hispanic, 24 percent white, 1 percent black, 1 percent Asian, 1 percent Other. Obama got 52 percent here. This is Henry Cuellar's district, but he may have to go up against Canseco, depending where Canseco lives. This district should become more democratic by the end of the decade as many hispanics in this district reach voting age.

Same here.Jim thought a map keeping Jackson-Lee the only Democrat was possible, IIRC.

The thing is that Al Green will be safe in a 45% Hispanic, 30% Black type district - but it would be Hispanic opportunity when open.
Technically not, in practice yes - the district struck down was another one, but the remedy chosen made it very very clear what the court actually thought of that monstrosity. (Of course, the district was represented by Lloyd Doggett during the two years that it existed.)

Which is why the Texas GOP will probably lump the Austin Hispanics in with the San Antonio Hispanics and split the rest of the white Dem areas in Austin among GOP districts.  Charlie Gonzalez's CD has to expand anyway, and I don't know how much more GOP suburbs he would want.  Plus, as we noted this year, a second San Antonio Hispanic district becomes highly questionable as Dem unless you push it up to Austin (or push it down to the border - which the courts didn't like).  There just simply aren't enough Hispanic Dem precincts.

Also, one of the new districts *has* to be placed within the Austin and San Antonio suburbs, which makes this solution have even more validity.  You move the border portions of TX-23 into TX-28 and the white Republican portions of TX-25 are combined with Corpus Christi to create a new TX-25 for Farenthold.  TX-15 and TX-27 become true border districts, except that you design the more northern of the two to be marginal enough for the party switcher.

Or at least that's how I would do it upon first glance.

As for Houston, I can definitely see the option of packing the blacks and creating another Hispanic opportunity seat that might, in fact, be pretty marginal.  That may well be done.

In Dallas, creating the Hispanic opportunity seat is probably the best idea.  Otherwise, you start knocking your McCain margins down to below 55% in more than one of those Dallas seats.

I'm being nice and creating a 25-11 map (presently 23-9) with a chance for the party switcher to make it 26-10.  Don't underestimate the GOP trying for 26-10 or even 27-9, though.  It can be done, but it's just more challenging and risks court challenges, of course.

Based on the 2009 ACS, the states population is divided like this based on share of 36 districts.

CD 10, 17, and 23 were split between two regions.

CD 10: 50% Houston (Austin County east), 50% Central
CD 17: 64% Central (McLennan south), 36% DFW
CD 23: 62% Central (Bexar), 38% South

Houston 9.63 (Currently 8.50, including 50% of CD 10)
DFW 11.84 (Currently 10.36, including 36% of CD 17 plus CD 1)
Central 6.77 (Currently 5.76, including 64% of CD 17, 50% of CD 10, and 62% of CD 23)
West 2.95 (Currently 3)
South 4.82 (Currently 4.38, including 38% of CD 23)

We don't have to do much in West Texas other than unkinking the boundaries and picking up 35,000 people somewhere.

In South Texas, the population isn't really in the right place to promote the non-Bexar part of CD 23 to its own district, so instead that area is added to CD 28.  We then create a new district from the northern parts of CD 15, CD 27, and CD 28.  We designate this district as CD 27, which is a Coastal Bend district and should probably also inlcude Victoria and surrounding areas, so we shift about 0.18 of a district from the Houston area.  The southern part of CD 27 is designated CD 33, and includes portions of Hidalgo County, CD 15 is shifted westward along the Rio Grande (CD 28 can give up its portion of Hidalgo, because it has gained Eagle Pass, Del Rio, and the Trans Pecos from CD 23)

So that makes it 23:10, with a competitive Coastal Bend CD 27.

In the Houston area, the excess of 0.45 (after the shift of Victoria to the Southern area) is about equivalent to its 1/2 of CD 10.  But instead of continuing this as an inner metro-district, we get population from Montgomery and Fort Bend, and perhaps the rural western parts of CD 14.  This 1/2 district will be added to CD 17 - see below.  CD 10 gets converted into a new district 34 with its core in NW Harris County.

Elsewhere, Jefferson gets shifted to CD 8, in exchange for some areas in Montgomery.  CD 2 also picks up some excess from CD 9, 18, and 29, which collectively have only 88K extra to give up.   CD 29 is short -13K, so we add the most Hispanic areas of CD 9 and 18 that are adjacent to CD 29.  The area that gets shifted to CD 2 is in the IAH area, which will make it look less like CD 18 is wrapping around CD 29 in north Houston.  Elsewhere we shift population towards the west to help create CD 34 and provide new population for CD 17.

That makes it 24:10

In the DFW area, CD 35 is created in the northern suburbs.  There is sufficient excess population in CD 3, 4, 12, and 26 for this. 

The northern part of CD 17 becomes CD 36 and adds in parts of CD 6, 24, 30, 5, and 1 (actually, much of it comes from CD 6, with areas in the other districts moving into CD 6.   We also need to add a little bit to the DFW area, so we pick off the northern tip of CD 31, and perhaps additional parts of CD 17 such as Madison, Robertson, and Limestone.  CD 36 might take over the southern tail of CD 6.   CD 6 could pick up Grand Prairie, etc.  CD 32 is short a bit, which it picks up from CD 30.

That makes is 36:10 with CD 32 becoming more competitive.

In Central Texas, you have to bulk up the remaining parts of CD 10 and CD 23.   CD 23 gets its population mainly from CD 21 and the small excess from CD 20.  CD 21 becomes very much a San Antonio-Austin district.  San Antonio really doesn't have enough population for 3 districts.   CD 25 withdraws behind the Armadillo Curtain.   CD 31 takes McLennan county from CD 17, and gives up parts of Williamson County to CD 10 (so CD 31 would become Georgetown, Killeen, Temple, Waco), while CD 10 is more Austin-Round Rock.

The southern part of CD 17 around Bryan-College Station gets the parts of CD 10 and 25 to the east of Austin, in exchange for giving up McLennan, and then adds in portions of the extreme northern and western parts of the Houston area.  It in effect becomes the inter-regional district, bur rather than going from Harris to Travis, it is centered on Bryan-College Station and edges into the suburban areas.

So you have CD 26:10 with CD 23, 27, and 32 being competitive seats.

CD 4 and CD 8 become a bit more pure East Texas, CD 4 is +130K because of growth in Collins and Rockwall which it shed.  I suppose it keeps Rockwall for now.  CD 2 8 picks up Jefferson which has lost enough population that it can be outvoted by areas to the north, and it will still include parts of Montgomery.

CD 31 now becomes a Waco-Temple-Killeen district stretching into the northern part of Austin.  You have a district based in Bryan-College Station, and Corpus Christi-Waco.  You have 4 border districts which will no longer be represented from San Antonio or Corpus Christi.  In the west, you have a better separation into: Amarillo-Wichita Falls, Lubbock-Abilene, and Midland-Odessa-San Angelo-Hill Country districts.

Here's my latest attempt at the Hispanic districts in the south:

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In reading the Supreme Court decision, it seems like their beef was that a) the voting age population of Hispanics wasn't enough in TX-23, and b) there was too much of a geographic stretch to go from Austin to Laredo in TX-25.  What I conclude is that 65% Hispanic is enough to satisfy condition a (as that's roughly what the court-drawn TX-23 had), and that if you confine yourself to south Texas, you'll satisfy condition b.  I couldn't find any section in which the court added up votes and said that these Hispanics are too Republican, or anything like that. 

If that's right, then my lines will pass muster.  Canseco's TX-23 (in brown) is 65% Hispanic, 51-48 McCain (previously 51-48 Obama).  I dropped the rural counties in the far west - they can be added to the Midland/Odessa district - so this is less sprawling than it was before (albeit only slightly).  Farenthold's TX-27 (in green) is 65% Hispanic, 50-49 McCain (53-46 Obama previously).

After that it's simple.   Dem districts only in El Paso, San Antonio, Austin, 3 in Houston, and then 1 or 2 in Dallas - I've been able to draw just one and have all the other districts safe for the GOP but if the DoJ insists then draw two.  You have to be a bit careful with the districts in the Austin suburbs (you probably want to split Williamson in case it continues to trend blue) but otherwise almost anything will work once you pack the urban districts. 

based on my map here is the delegation of the 113th congress

DISTRICT 1 Louie Gohmert R-Tyler
DISTRICT 2 Allan Ritter R-Nederland
DISTRICT 3 Sam Johnson R-Plano
DISTRICT 4 Ralph Hall R-Rockwall
DISTRICT 5 Royce West D-Dallas
DISTRICT 6 Joe Barton R-Ennis
DISTRICT 7 John Culberson R-Houston
DISTRICT 8 Kevin Brady R-Woodlands
DISTRICT 9 Al Green D-Houston
DISTRICT 10 Lloyd Doggett D-Austin
DISTRICT 11 Jim Keffer R-Eastland
DISTRICT 12 Kay Granger R-Fort Worth
DISTRICT 13 Mac Thornberry R-Clarendon
DISTRICT 14 Ron Paul R-Lake Jackson
DISTRICT 15 Ruben Hinojosa D-Mercedes
DISTRICT 16 Silvestre Reyes D-El Paso
DISTRICT 17 Larry Taylor R-Friendswood
DISTRICT 18 Sheila Jackson Lee D-Houston
DISTRICT 19 Mike Conaway R-Midland
DISTRICT 20 Charlie Gonzales D-Houston
DISTRICT 21 Lamar Smith R-San Antonio
DISTRICT 22 Pete Olson R-Sugarland
DISTRICT 23 Harvey Hilderbran R-Kerrville
DISTRICT 24 Wendy Davis D-Fort Worth
DISTRICT 25 Bob Deuell R-Greenville
DISTRICT 26 Michael Burgess R-Lewisville
DISTRICT 27 Eddie Lucio Jr R-Brownsville
DISTRICT 28 Henry Cuellar D-Laredo
DISTRICT 29 Gene Green D-Houston
DISTRICT 30 Eddie Bernice Johnson D-Dallas
DISTRICT 31 John Carter R-Round Rock
DISTRICT 32 Pete Sessions R-Dallas
DISTRICT 33 Chris Harris R-Arlington
DISTRICT 34 Mike Jackson R-Pasadena
DISTRICT 35 Dan Patrick R-Houston
DISTRICT 36 Jeff Wentworth D-San Antonio

24 Republicans 12 Democrats.

In my first try (up in a couple of days when I get the numbers exactly right), I have managed to create the Hispanic-majority CD from Austin to San Antonio (not that hard really), while completely f-ing the Austin white students many times over (and from strange angles too), and ensuring no return of Chet Edwards or older time Dems.  The Corpus Christi seat may need a little work, but all border seats have been maintained, as per VRA, even though the new TX-27 is designed as a border seat to give the party switcher a chance..

This is my nice map - The Texas GOP could well be meaner in reality.

Do you plan to "publish" your map?

Yes, but I have to clean it up a bit first.

I just post sh*t drafts myself, and clean them up in "public," per the input of others, and as on ongoing work in progress (why or why do I make so many dumb mistakes?). I would  like to think it makes me seem more human to the Forum, as this fossil from another age, another era, does his own thing in his own odd way.  :)

Plus, I think it kind of interesting, to give others some sense of the roadblocks, and conundrums, that I face, as I try to effect my, well as my younger Dem brother told my a day or two ago, my execrable agenda for a Party as to which he is now rather quite confused, as to just why I have any allegiance, whatsoever.

But I know why. :P

And so it goes.

Sam, just as a note of caution, the population data is only accurate at the county level. Within counties, Dave Bradlee just assumes everything grew or shrank at the same rate since 2000. That is not such a big deal in relatively stagnant states like Wisconsin, but for a demographically dynamic state like Texas, that will tend to make your maps that take in the high population counties a piece of crap. Muon2 pointed this out to me.

And then there is Michigan, where the Detroit metro area has been shrinking. When the real numbers roll in, that might well help the Pubbies a bit from what one can do per Bradlee's software. I suspect the spots were there has been relative population loss are disproportionately Dem within Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties.

Round 2 of Delaymanderring doesn't seem all that difficult.

1. 1 new Dem district in Dallas
2. 1 new GOP district south of DFW.
3. 1 new GOP district in the  Houston suburbs (this comes out of Lloyd Doggett's 25th)
4. 1 new swingy (although lean GOP) district in South Texas

The trick is to I think run both CD-15 and CD-28 along the border only, both 70% Obama districts. CD-27 moves a bit north and becomes ~54% McCain. CD-23 runs all the way down to Brooks County, ~54% McCain, both are at 60% hispanic.

CD-35 comes in at the Southern Half of Bexar County, is majority white, and 54% McCain.

Outside of here you have 23 60% McCain districts and the 8 heavy Dem packed districts in Houston/Dallas/Austin/San Antonio/El Paso.

I realize the software is not perfect, especially not in the big cities.  For example, errors abound in the internal precincts of Houston, as I see obvious black precincts in Houston where black and Hispanic and/or white and black numbers are screwed up.

I am sure that the growth rates of the areas within the major counties will undoubtedly benefit the GOP in the map, as most of the Dallas/San Antonio/Houston current minority areas have been losing population.

Consider this an attempt that will be clarified when we get good data.

Just FYI, krazen has really stumbled closer to the plan that will probably be used, as Dems will probably complain about the new TX-27 in my map.  To stop the complaining, I would point out that I am also pretty sure that I can put Cuellar and Hinojosa in the same district and create three McCain Hispanic 60% districts. (i.e. instead of 25-11 or 26-10, how about 27-9  :P)

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TX-1 (Gohmert's Lair)
Incumbent Home: Tyler (Smith County)
Voting: McCain 68% (69%), Obama 31% (31%)
Race: 70% White, 20% Black, 8% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Comment: Mostly unchanged from previous iteration.  Lufkin is taken out and replaced with a bit of Texarkana and some rural east Texas.

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TX-2 (Lampson's Nightmare)
Incumbent Home: Humble (Harris County)
Voting: McCain 62% (60%), Obama 37% (40%)
Race: White 69%, Black 14%, Hispanic 12%, Asian 4%
Comment: Similar to the present TX-2, except Kingwood is put in TX-22 and Port Arthur is put into TX-8 (thus separating Port Arthur and Beaumont).  I'm pretty sure Poe's home is in the district - Humble is separate from Kingwood - but change can be made easily if this is a problem.  In exchange, Poe gets northern parts of Liberty, adds Harbin County, and gets a nice (more) rural slice of Montgomery which will probably gain GOP constituents over time.

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TX-3 (How I Hate Dallas County, Texas)
Incumbent Home: Plano (Collin County)
Voting: McCain 62% (57%), Obama 37% (42%)
Race: 78% White, 9% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 5% Black
Comment: Sam Johnson's CD extricates itself from the older Dallas suburbs to go further north in Collin County, into Grayson County (Sherman and Denison) to the TX-OK border, thereby gaining Republican voters.

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TX-4 (Of Memories Past)
Incumbent Home: Rockwell (Rockwell County)
Voting: McCain 70% (69%), Obama 29% (30%)
Race: White 78%, Black 11%, Hispanic 9%, Asian 2%
Comment: In the olden days of Texas politics, no Republican would ever draw this type of CD.  It's got too many rural parts, leaving room for Dems to come in and snatch the thing up.  Now, it will be the most McCain CD in Texas.  Hall's new seat drops all of the Collin County suburbs, part of Grayson County and some of Texarkana to go down south, picking up parts of former TX-5 and TX-6, as well as half of Lufkin (including the black parts).

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TX-5 (Hensarling's Haunt)
Incumbent Home: Dallas (Dallas County)
Voting: McCain 61% (63%), Obama 38% (36%)
Race: White 70%, Hispanic 15%, Black 10%, Asian 4%
Comment: The ugliness of this CD is because I can't remember whether Hensarling lives in Mesquite or in White Rock Lake, and because of the necessities for the new Hispanic majority-minority district.  The CD has also been tightened up a bit, removing all of the territory to the South, removing a lot of the territory to the East, and taking in some of Joe Barton's Dallas suburbs.

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TX-6 (Best Lunch Ever Was in Ennis, Texas - It Was Also the Scariest)
Incumbent Home: Ennis (Ellis County)
Voting: McCain 61% (60%), Obama 38% (40%)
Race: White 70%, Black 14%, Hispanic 13%, Asian 3%
Comment: Similar to the present TX-6, except some Fort Worth suburbs are taken away.  To compensate that, the CD moves South and adds half of Lufkin, as well as Huntsville (Walker County) and even half of Grimes County!  Truly an I-45 CD now.  

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TX-7 (Rich Houstonians Still Vote Republican)
Incumbent Home: Houston (Harris County)
Voting: McCain 59% (58.54% exact) (58%), Obama 41% (41%)
Race: White 61%, Hispanic 24%, Asian 8%, Black 6%
Comment: Very careful precinct picking has only pushed the CD up 1% in McCain voting.  Because of the tricks that are necessary in the rest of the state (i.e. Austin), the easiest thing is to leave this CD the way it presently is, which is basically what this gerrymander does.  R+13 should be enough, anyway, even as things brown a bit.  I believe the incumbent lives in the rich suburbs south of I-10.

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TX-8 (Why Waste Montgomery County on One Guy)
Incumbent Home: The Woodlands (Montgomery County)
Voting: McCain 68% (74%), Obama 31% (26%)
Race: White 74%, Black 12%, Hispanic 12%, Asian 3%
Comment: In case, you haven't noticed, I divided fast-growing GOP Montgomery County into three (anticipating potential future movements).  Besides, who wants to waste all those votes on Brady?  Anyway, this CD stretches around to gather in black (err.. Dem) strongholds of Port Arthur, Galveston and part of Texas City, in exchange for removing Huntsville and some lesser rural east Texas counties.

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TX-9 (The Lesser Al Green)
Incumbent Home: Houston - Alief (Harris County)
Voting: Obama 77% (77%), McCain 22% (23%)
Race: Black 38%, Hispanic 33%, White 17%, Asian 12%, Other 1%
Comment: Much as TX-7, this CD stays pretty much the same, only to expand a little.  Trying to design a second Hispanic-majority CD in Houston is next to impossible unless you want to endanger a Dem seat and/or a GOP seat (especially under the above guidelines), so I just gave up trying.  It's almost impossible to get two Hispanic-majority CDs anyway.

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TX-10 (McCaul's Maul)
Incumbent Home: Austin (Travis County)
Voting: McCain 58% (57.57% exact) (55%), Obama 41% (44%)
Race: White 71%, Hispanic 15%, Asian 7%, Black 7%
Comment: Since McCaul lives in Austin, this CD must extend to Austin.  Note that new TX-34 basically does the same thing, so if he lives in TX-34 and not TX-10, he can run there instead (margin is the same).  I have lessened the Austin impact in TX-10 by using TX-34 and doing the evil manuever below (The Dangling Arm of Death).  Some Harris County suburbs are removed, as is Austin and Waller, to TX-34, in exchange for a few hyper-GOP, insanely fast-growing Montgomery County precincts.

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TX-11 (The Dangling Arm of Death)
Incumbent Home: Midland (Midland County)
Voting: McCain 61% (74%), Obama 38% (26%)
Race: White 65%, Hispanic 27%, Black 4%, Asian 3%
Comment: It is nothing but pure evil.  It begins, a much narrower strip than before, which takes up Midland, Odessa, Big Spring and San Angelo, until we reach Burnet County, where the arm stretches out, reaching into the heart of Austin, and castrating all the impotent students and government workers of a chance to pick someone who represents them.  The Bush-God from Midland strikes again against those who fail to worship him.

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TX-12 (Granger's Getaway)
Incumbent Home: Fort Worth (Tarrant County)
Voting: McCain 62% (63%), Obama 38% (36%)
Race: White 71%, Hispanic 17%, Black 9%, Asian 3%
Comment: Granger trades some hyper-GOP precincts in North Fort Worth to new TX-36 for some rural, west of Fort Worth, counties.  No real change in voting patterns.

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TX-13 (The Dangling Arm of Death - The Sequel)
Incumbent Home: Clarendon (Donley County)
Voting: McCain 73% (77%), Obama 26% (23%)
Race: White 72%, Hispanic 19%, Black 6%, Asian 3%
Comment: Although centered around Amarillo and Wichita Falls, this west Texas strip is also narrower than before, letting new TX-36 take over its dormant rural areas.  Its little Dangling Arm of Death reaches into Denton this time to castrate all those annoying, impotent University of North Texas students.

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TX-14 (Ron Paul Land)
Incumbent Home: Surfside (Brazoria County)
Voting: McCain 63% (66%), Obama 37% (33%)
Race: White 65%, Hispanic 20%, Black 10%, Asian 4%
Comment: With the recasting of TX-25 as a Coastal Bend CD, Ron Paul Land gets a rethink.  This version compresses it to most of Brazoria County, Galveston County (minus Galveston), Anahuac County (really the "Deep South") and Harris County "suburbs" along Galveston Bay.  Safely Republican, but less McCain than before.

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TX-15 (A Real South Texas "Border" CD For Once)
Incumbent Home: Mercedes (Hidalgo County)
Voting: Obama 75% (60%), McCain 25% (40%)
Race: Hispanic 92%, White 7%, Asian 1%
Comment: In the rather conscious attempt to create a lean GOP, open TX-27 (which it is), I put every solidly Dem precinct in Hinojosa's CD along the border.  This means the CD basically rides the border from Brownsville to McAllen, taking in every rural precinct possible (as these are *always* more Democratic), except for Edinburg, so as to give an opportunity for the party-switcher.

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TX-16 (El Paso Is Ugly, But Juarez Is a Hellhole)
Incumbent Home: El Paso (El Paso County)
Voting: Obama 65% (66%), McCain 34% (34%)
Race: Hispanic 76%, White 18%, Black 3%, Asian 2%, Other 1%
Comment:Reyes' CD is basically unchanged from before, except that a few precincts have been moved to TX-28 because of population growth greater than the baseline.

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TX-17 (Edwards Ain't Coming Back Man)
Incumbent Home: Bryan (Brazos County)
Voting: McCain 64% (67%), Obama 35% (32%)
Race: White 68%, Black 14%, Hispanic 13%, Asian 4%
Comment: I take away some of Flores' Dallas suburbs and move the district slightly further East while removing the Grimes County, Madisonville, east Brenham parts.  In its place, I add Edwards' old stomping ground - Fort Hood and Killeen.  So you might ask why I want Edwards back?  For the answer, see TX-19's Dangling Arm of Death into Waco's annoying center of blacks and college students that eliminates any future Edwards return...  :)

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TX-18 (Sheila Jackson Lee is One Annoying B*tch)
Incumbent Home: Houston (Harris County)
Voting: Obama 82% (77%), McCain 17% (22%)
Race: Black 49%, Hispanic 26%, White 16%, Asian 5%, Other 1%
Comment: Just so the d*mn woman doesn't get a bigger head than she already has, I'm leaving her at 49% blacks, even though I could well make it 50%.  The CD is basically the same as before, though the precincts are more carefully cut apart (i.e. why is Garden Oaks in her CD now? - those white precincts with some Hispanic browning should be in TX-7)

Other half later today.

I prefer "The Daughter of the Dangling Arm of Death".

Sam I require you to do the following:

5 Districts entirely within Harris County
3 Districts entirely within Dallas County
2 Districts entirely within Tarrant County
2 Districts entirely within Bexar County
1 District Entirely within Travis County
1 District Entirely Within Collin County
1 District Entirely within El Paso County
1 District Entirely within Hidalgo County

Basically, by playing around with South Texas and West Texas, I managed to create a map which:

1) Holds 24 CDs at 57.50% McCain of higher.
2) Creates 3 safe Dem seats in Houston, 2 in Dallas and 2 in San Antonio/Austin (4 being Hispanic majority-minority CDs)
3) Creates a new TX-15 along the border where Cuellar and Hinojosa must face each other in a primary.
4) Creates a new TX-25 along Corpus Christi with 60% Hispanic and 51% McCain for Farenthold.
5) Creates a new TX-27 with an Edinburg center for the party switcher with 66% Hispanic and 52% McCain.
6) Creates a new TX-28 in west Texas with 64% Hispanic and 53% McCain.

I could even play around and probably avoid the minority-majority CD in Dallas, but I think that may be going too far.  The west Texas CD may well be snatched up by Pete Gallego - I understand that danger.

The map may also be illegal in other ways - it's your choose.  More tonight or tomorrow.

I'll post the rest of the *nice* map with comments later, as well as the evil one, but as I look over both maps, the nice one is too conciliatory (even though new TX-25 is not minority-majority Hispanic and really safe R) and I suspect this one is probably too stretched.  It's just nearly impossible to get 27-9 if you concede a Dallas Hispanic majority-minority district, and logic says that this is a wise move imo.

26-10 can certainly be done, however, with the creation of the extra Hispanic minority-majority CD as mentioned above, and I can probably get the McCain % up to 54.50% in the two South Texas CDs and stick with the 57.50% in the other 24 CDs. 

Lastly, the combination of Cuellar with Hinojosa, btw, is a move of brilliance, if I may say so.  The map works even better with that bit of deviousness.

Sam, I demand you fix you map and move me back into Texas-08 >:( (East Montgomery County)

and Put Galveston back in Paul's district >:(

Sam, I demand you post the remainder of this particular plan this year. (And no, while it arguably "could be worse", this is probably about as evil as you can get without being shot down by the courts. Actually, that 90-odd% Hispanic district better not border any R-leaning seat if it wants to withstand court challenge.)

Sure - I get caught up doing other things sometimes.  I'll also post the 27-9 attempt within Map #1.  It's ugly, but I like it.

I'm also working on a second map, which is a bit of a rethink on the Texas gerrymander (not that great of one - since Austin still has to be divided into a million parts) and which makes TX-25 into Hispanic minority-majority.  Or very, very close - I'm only aiming for 58.50% Hispanic here, which should be enough for 50%+1 VAP in most of Texas.

The benefit to this second map is that it *looks* a whole lot better - districts are less fajita-strip and county divides are much less common.  And it should be 25-11 safe, with 26-10 probable, unless Farenthold is a real incompetent - and another Republican would probably have a good chance in this CD.

here is my alternative DFW Metroplex. These districts are based on state legislature districts where there are usually 3 or 4 assembly districts embedded within each district, so if one of the legislators want to run for there congress, they can keep their original constituency

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this is the entire area zoomed out as a whole

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This is Tarrant County. The light green district in the northern part is District 33. This is some wealthy areas we are dealing with like Southlake Grapevine Euless Bedford Richland Hills Wautauga River Oaks etc. This district is 78 percent white and McCain got 65 percent here. This is an open seat.

The light blue district in the central part of the country is District 32. This takes in the urban areas of Fort Worth. This district is diverse at 47 percent white, 26 percent hispanic, 21 percent black, 5 percent Asian, 1 percent Other. Obama got 56 percent here. This too is an open seat. Lon Burnam may run here.

The dark purplish district in western Tarrant county is District 12. It also takes the surrounding counties as shown above. It goes counterclockwise in taking in some rural areas surrounding Tarrant County. Kay Granger is even safer here. This district is 81 percent white and McCain got 69 percent here.

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This is Dallas County. The lime green district (District 30) is basically all of South Dallas and includes Fair Park as well as some southern suburbs like DeSoto, Lancaster, Duncanville. This district is 45 percent black, 29 percent hispanic, 24 percent white, and 2 percent Asian. Obama got 81 percent here. This is a safe dem district obviously

The cerulean district in western Dallas County is District 24 and also takes in some parts of Tarrant County. This district is the most hispanic in the metroplex at 42 percent hispanic. Whites are 40 percent, blacks are 11 percent, and Asians are 7 percent. This looks somewhat similar to Martin Frost's old district, but it also goes north into Coppell, making it less democratic. Obama got 53 percent here. Kenny Marchant is the incumbent and he could keep this seat but he needs to tweak his views to more of a Rockefeller type Republican.

The yellow district is District 5 and takes in Mesquite, the Park Cities, Downtown Dallas, parts of North Dallas as well as parts of Carrollton. Jeb Hensarling would face Pete Sessions in a primary here most likely. This district is 62 percent white and McCain got 52 percent here

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This here is the northern suburbs. The district in orange is District 3 it takes in the oldest parts of Plano (Jerry Madden's district) as well as Richardson, Garland, parts of North Dallas, Sachse, Rowlett. This district is 60 percent white and McCain got 54 percent here. Safe Republican as long as Johnson is here, lean republican if he retires.

District in light purple (CD 26) takes in most of Plano, as well as a great deal of Denton County like Lewisville, Lake Dallas, Denton, parts of Flower Mound. Michael Burgess would represent this district and at 74 percent white and McCain getting 59 percent here, a republican is safe.

District in red (CD 4) is the poster child of this argument: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=129666.0. 83 percent white, 67 percent McCain, enough said. Ralph Hall is the incumbent here, but he will retire eventually, so Jodie Laubenberg or Ken Paxton may run here.

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TX-19 (The Dangling Arm of Death - This Time It's Personal)
Incumbent Home: Lubbock (Lubbock County)
Voting: McCain 69% (72%), Obama 30% (29%)
Race: White 65%, Hispanic 24%, Black 9%, Asian 2%
Comment: TX-19 still takes in Lubbock and Abilene, but the CD is narrowed to a nice little strip by removing a number of pointless West Texas rural counties.  This alteration allows its "dangling arm of death" to invalidate all those minority Democratic precincts in Waco and neuter all those annoying Baylor students.

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TX-20 (Gonzalez - Past and Present)
Incumbent Home: San Antonio (Bexar County)
Voting: Obama 62% (63%), McCain 37% (36%)
Race: Hispanic 66%, White 24%, Black 8%, Asian 2%
Comment: Gonzalez's CD moves outward to take in outer Bexar precincts, while ceding a certain amount of inner Bexar precincts to the largely revamped TX-23.

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TX-21 (Bexar County Whites Have GOP Tattooed On Their Foreheads)
Incumbent Home: San Antonio (Bexar County)
Voting: McCain 59% (59.10% exact) (58%), Obama 40% (41%)
Race: White 67%, Hispanic 25%, Black 4%, Asian 3%
Comment: My redesign of the TX-21 removes the heart of the German Hill Country and this district's former piece of Austin to give to Canseco in new TX-35.  Since the rest of this CD is growing quite fast, all I need to do is add Hays County to create a nice compact district (for once) that is slightly more Republican than the one before.

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TX-22 (Lampson's Temporary Abode)
Incumbent Home: Sugar Land (Fort Bend County)
Voting: McCain 61% (58%), Obama 38% (41%)
Race: White 61%, Hispanic 21%, Asian 10%, Black 8%
Comment: This design exchanges a certain amount of Fort Bend County (not Olson's home in Sugar Land, naturally) for some fast-growing and rather Republican suburbs in NE Harris County, including the already-grown Kingwood area.  This strengthens the Republican lean of the CD already present in the current model.  It also makes the new TX-22 look a bit like Japan...

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TX-23 (A Real Hispanic Democratic District This Time)
Incumbent Home: None (pretty sure Doggett doesn't live here)
Voting: Obama 62% (51%), McCain 37% (48%)
Race: Hispanic 60% (59.75% exact), White 24%, Black 13%, Asian 2%
Comment: Another Japan-looking-like snake CD, but any Austin-San Antonio Hispanic majority-minority CD will have to look something like this in order to meet the required VAP.  This is the perfect CD for Ciro Rodriguez to make his return, as most of his old South Bexar stomping grounds remain intact.  Note that the black portions of Austin are found in this CD, whereas the black portions of San Antonio are moved to TX-20 (to create the required VAP number).

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TX-24 (Another Boring Metroplex District Heads North)
Incumbent Home: Coppell (Dallas County)
Voting: McCain 61% (55%), Obama 39% (44%)
Race: White 72%, Hispanic 13%, Asian 8%, Black 7%
Comment: TX-24 is made considerably more Republican by the creation of TX-33 Hispanic minority-majority district in the middle of Dallas.  This iteration chooses to add further GOP precincts by creating a fajita strip heading northward along the eastern edge of suburbs in Denton County and by grabbing most of rural Cooke County in North Texas.

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TX-25 (Farenthold Will Survive Here)
Incumbent Home: Corpus Christi (Nueces County)
Voting: McCain 59% (59.18% exact) (40%), Obama 40% (59%)
Race: White 48%, Hispanic 44%, Black 6%, Asian 2%
Comment: Doggett's former TX-25 is completely refashioned, in this map, as a Corpus Christi-Victoria Coastal Bend CD.  Cameron County is removed and replaced by a number of white rural redneck counties to the north that are used to voting for nuts.  The complaint that will be made, naturally, is that there is dilution of Hispanic voters by not creating another Hispanic majority-minority CD in South Texas, which can be done.  The GOP can deal with this, but the result will certainly two, if not three highly marginal CDs.  I've done the three marginal CDs one in another version of the same map - and they are all McCain districts, but barely, and in South Texas, this will create a real problem, if history is any guide.  With the two CDs, I can probably get both up to 53%-54%, but that will be an issue nonetheless.  An interesting alternative will be provided in the second map, which I believe is a more solid 26-10 than this version, but removes the possibility of 27-9.

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TX-26 (Burgess' Bulwark)
Incumbent Home: Flower Mound (Denton County)
Voting: McCain 61% (58%), Obama 38% (41%)
Race: White 74%, Hispanic 11%, Black 10%, Asian 6%
Comment: Most of Denton (both college students and Republicans) are removed from TX-26 to add a bigger slice of rich Fort Worth suburbs and poor black areas, including parts of TX-24.  Given the growth in this CD, its confines had to shrink a bit, regardless.

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TX-27 (The Party-Switcher's Possibility)
Incumbent Home: None
Voting: Obama 50% (50.29% exact) (53%), Obama 49% (46%)
Race: Hispanic 68%, Hispanic 29%, Black 2%, Asian 1%
Comment: This marginal open seat is designed by the GOP either for the party-switcher in Edinburg (note how Edinburg and much of his House seat is nicely included here) or for a GOP official in Cameron County (which comprises most of this CD's population).  Along the border, precincts have been closely analyzed for their Republican-ness.  The rest of the CD includes most of present-day TX-15 except that Hinojosa in Mercedes is carefully drawn out of the CD.

Revenant Ciro!

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TX-28 (Along the Border)
Incumbent Home: Laredo (Webb County)
Voting: Obama 65% (56%), McCain 34% (44%)
Race: Hispanic 86%, White 12%, Asian 1%, Black 1%
Comment: The basic change here is removing the German areas around Seguin and the other Hispanic areas around San Antonio in exchange for the long rural border area presently in TX-23.  This strengthens the Obama tilt of the CD.

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TX-29 (Green is Not a Brown)
Incumbent Home: Houston (Harris County)
Voting: Obama 64% (62%), McCain 35% (38%)
Race: Hispanic 70%, White 18%, Black 9%, Asian 2%
Comment: TX-29 remains basically the same, except with some tightening here and there of the gerrymander and some addition of stronger Obama precincts.

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TX-30 (The Part of Dallas You Don't Want to See)
Incumbent Home: Dallas (Dallas County)
Voting: Obama 78% (82%), Obama 22% (18%)
Race: Black 45%, White 30%, Hispanic 20%, Asian 5%
Comment: I have some fun here going north in a little "octopus tentacle" to pick up some minority precincts, as some of TX-30 has to be cut off in order in order to create new Hispanic minority-majority TX-33.  The other option is going west into Tarrant County, fyi.

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TX-31 (Carter's Creation)
Incumbent Home: Round Rock (Williamson County)
Voting: McCain 59% (59.19% exact) (58%), Obama 39% (42%)
Race: White 73%, Hispanic 15%, Black 8%, Asian 3%
Comment: TX-31 basically remains the same, exchanging some stronger McCain precincts for weaker McCain precincts, in particular giving Killeen and Fort Hood back to TX-17.  Carter lives in Round Rock, the most Southern part of Williamson County, so maps almost have to keep Williamson County in one piece.

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TX-32 (Reworking Sessions)
Incumbent Home: Dallas (Dallas County)
Voting: McCain 59% (58.95% exact) (53%), Obama 40% (46%)
Race: White 73%, Hispanic 15%, Black 8%, Asian 3%
Comment: The large Hispanic part of TX-32 is detached to create new TX-33 Hispanic minority-majority district.  In exchange, Sessions gets the Dallas portion of TX-3, the Collin County part of TX-4, and even stretches north to take in half of Grayson County from TX-4.  In other words, much like Johnson in TX-3, Sessions' CD is extended to take in newer line suburbs to protect against future demographic changes

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TX-33 (Maybe Martin Frost Can Run Here)
Incumbent Home: None
Voting: Obama 66%, McCain 33%
Race: Hispanic 60% (59.97% exact), White 23%, Black 13%, Asian 3%
Comment: From the ruins of TX-24, TX-30 and TX-32 comes the new Hispanic CD in Dallas.  I picked my fine tooth comb through all the Metroplex precincts, and this is basically the only way it can be designed to get it around the 60% magic number, so don't go around thinking there are other possibilities...

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TX-34 (Recreating Another McCaul Maul)
Incumbent Home: None
Voting: McCain 58% (57.96% exact), Obama 41%
Race: White 64%, Hispanic 22%, Black 10%, Asian 4%
Comment: Pushing TX-10 further north allows us to create its cousin, TX-34, which takes in west Harris County suburbs, Fort Bend suburbs from TX-22 and Brazoria County areas from TX-14 to balance its dangling arm into the Austin interior..

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TX-35 (Forcing Hispanic GOPers to Represent GOP Whites Yet Again)
Incumbent Home: San Antonio (Bexar County)
Voting: McCain 58% (57.98%), Obama 41%
Race: White 69%, Hispanic 24%, Asian 3%, Black%
Comment: I'm pretty sure Canseco resides here - if I'm wrong, some alterations can be made without destroying the CD, so...  In short, TX-35 takes the center of German Hill Country and the Austin environs from Smith and attaches it onto TX-23's GOP part of Bexar County, and some rural GOP areas (Uvalde, Hondo and the boonies).

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TX-36 (A Fourth West Texas District?)
Incumbent Home: None
Voting: McCain 64%, Obama 35%
Race: White 59%, Hispanic 28%, Black 10%, Asian 3%
Comment: This new TX-36 is a combination of rural west Texas counties dropped by TX-11, TX-13 and TX-19 and leftover Fort Worth and Denton suburbs from TX-12 and TX-26.  This will be a fair fight between rural interests and suburban interests as a decent bit of the Fort Worth areas (enough to matter in the population contest) are minority-based black areas that vote Democratic.

And later - something quite different...

Sam, I think that your DFW minority districts are not as VRA-proof as the TX GOP might want. This provides more margin to correct for the VAP, and even citizen VAP if needed. This will be especially needed since this would go through the Obama DOJ. So, here's my bullet-proof minority districts for the Metroplex.

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CD 30:
White 27%, Black 53%, Asian 3%, Hispanic 16%
Obama 79%, McCain 20%

CD 33:
White 21%, Black 9%, Asian 3%, Hispanic 66%
Obama 66%, McCain 33%

Yes, having now just looked at the question (because I was in a state of total confusion myself), apparently Justice Kennedy was vague in Bartlett v Strickland (did he mean to be vague, or was he just sloppy?), about whether the relevant minority class under the VRA was VAP or citizen VAP. His language just says VAP, but a later lower court opined in REYES v. CITY OF FARMERS BRANCH TEXAS (http://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-5th-circuit/1499114.html) that  given the context of the relevant phrase in Bartlett, and the fact that the issue of VAP versus citizen VAP was not before the Bartlett court, and  that the whole concept of voting means eligible to vote,  what Justice Kennedy really meant to say was citizen VAP, and not just VAP, and so ruled.

And since that lower court was the 5th Circuit, that holding is the governing authority for the moment for Texas, unless and until Justice Kennedy in a later case rules that no, when he wrote VAP, and did not include the qualifier "citizen," that was because he intended not to. It is all very odd, since the lower court in Bartlett which was appealed to SCOTUS, explicitly discussed the issue of citizen versus non-citizen, and explicitly ruled that the relevant number was citizen VAP, and one cannot not include the non citizen minority VAP in the count.

Fun stuff isn't it?

I don't think GOP would have any problem drawing those districts, even though they are *butt ugly* (to put it mildly).  I didn't do it, because, odd as it may sound, I'm aiming for something that looks a bit nicer.

Here's what I'm going to point out - Texas is really looking for fights with the Feds right now, and vice versa.  The reason why I'm drawing the maps that raise questions is because Texas lawmakers are almost certainly going to produce one based on their interpretation of LULAC v. Perry that comes as close to skirting the lines as they think possible.

In particular, they are going to read LULAC v. Perry as saying that 'so long as there is 50%+1 Latino citizen VAP, the first Gingles threshold requirement is not met, and, therefore, there is no Section 2 violation.'  TX-23, in that instance had 55% Latino population, 50% VAP and 46% citizen VAP.  TX-23 is probably going to be a tad lower on the citizen VAP than other parts of Texas, but if we have 59% to 60% Latino population, there will be 50%+1 citizen VAP.

And when the Obama Justice Dept. blocks this map through Section 5, they're going to argue the unconstitutionality of the Section 5, which the Court successfully ignored in Northwest Austin Municipal District No.1 v. Holder, but left quite a cautious tone on its continued viability (of course, Roberts does not speak for Kennedy, naturally)..

You'll see this game come to fruition in the next couple of maps I draw.

EDIT:  I see Torie's new post which suggests question between citizen VAP and regular VAP.  I am almost certain it is citizen VAP, just having read the ruling again before making the above post, but I am trying to show the number where 50%+1 citizen VAP is reached, at least along the border in Texas.

Especially since the 7th Circuit wasn't willing to use a standard like CVAP in Gonzalez v. City of Aurora (2008) (http://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-7th-circuit/1375584.html). They want to compare the approved map to a race neutral map to test for vote dilution. Clearly the two circuits differ in approach and it sets up an inevitable SCOTUS review after the 2011 redistricting IMHO. Many legal experts I've spoke to in the last year agree that the subject of VAP vs CVAP will need clarification by the high court.

Similar to my effort in DFW, here's what I get for the Houston area. Here my goal was 60% for the Hispanic districts. I got close with the estimates and rough mapping of Dave's App. I'm confident that with block-level mapping 60% would be achievable. Definitely not pretty.

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CD 9:
White 13%, Black 61%, Asian 5%, Hispanic 21%
Obama 86%, McCain 14%

CD 18:
White 22%, Black 14%, Asian 5%, Hispanic 58.2%
Obama 62%, McCain 37%

CD 29:
White 21%, Black 16%, Asian 4%, Hispanic 59.0%
Obama 69%, McCain 31%

And of course, how do you count CVAP when it is not included in the census?  And just why would it seem reasonable that persons not eligible to vote, should be factored in as to whether those eligible to vote can elect someone of their choice? Those Hispanic eligible to vote would be getting a boost from those not eligible to vote to reach the 50% plus one threshold. Under that standard, why don't we count the Hispanic minors too? How are they different from VAP's who are as equally ineligible to vote?

And as to VAP's who are not CVAP's, do we count illegals too, or just legal residents with green cards who are not citizens? Why should illegals have some influence on who gets elected?  Just asking. Heck, if I were Hispanic, but all the rest of the Hispanics were illegals, in my community of interest, and the number of illegals were enough to get to 50% plus one, then I suppose as a practical matter, it should come down to whether someone of my choice can get elected. :P

The thing is at once ludicrous and a legal mess, and if something other than VAP is the standard, the courts will be saddled with a host of hack experts testifying trying to create inferential data, sometimes, particularly at the margins, out of something akin to thin air as we "decide" which names on the voting rolls seem "Hispanic" for CVAP purposes, and which not. I once knew a Cuban, who looked quite Hispanic, with the name of "Martin."  He would obviously not be counted as Hispanic on the voting rolls. And a fair number of surnames, could be either facially Hispanic or Anglo, not to mention having to deal with Italian and Portuguese surnames, which cross over into Spanish surnames.

SCOTUS has not distinguished itself on this one - at all. JMO of course.

Do you see how the legal advocacy mind works here?  :P

Indeed, it is a mess, and the culprit is the combination of (a) single-member districts with (b) representation for non-geographic minorities.

If you gave up (a), you could get (b) quite easily without any erose (as you like to put it) maps. For instance, STV is used in Northern Ireland for just the reason that the main social cleavage there doesn't correspond to a clear geographic segregation, and the same ought to apply to the southern US.

We are in agreement here, Torie.  The Supreme Court decisions in the area of congressional appropriation in recent years generally suck royally.  No wonder is it that so many of the recent ones have been written by Kennedy.

Of course, I also think Reynolds v. Sims was wrongly decided, so maybe my opinion is a little out there.

I was always a bit surprised that the Reynolds court didn't establish separate standards for upper and lower chambers for state legislatures. Clearly there is that distinction for the US Senate. They could have held that as long as one chamber was fairly apportioned, then the republican model applied to the states would work as well as the federal system was intended by the Constitution.

I wouldn't worry about Sam's metro districts, what with the fact that not nearly all the non-Blacks / non-Mexicans are Anglo. Though who knows.

Shouldn't the high court address the issue of inter-district variation in CVAP?  Doesn't the deliberate packing of citizens of voting age in some districts result in their having less of a vote than citizens of voting age in other districts, and violate the 14th Amendment?

The Court considered CVAP only as a proxy for determining the likelihood of a certain outcome, not for an individual's right to representation, which is based on being a resident of the state and not a citizen.

I'm not worried about the metro districts - so long as they vote the right way, no one will be complaining.  And the Hispanic CDs probably fit under VAP or citizen VAP - if not, adjustments can be made easily to make them compatible.

Anyway, map #2, which I'm working on, is the real way to f-ck Democrats of which there will be a hard time to find complaints to stop it.  The trick is to go back to the old Republican method of splitting Webb County, pitting Cuellar against Hinojosa in CD-15, and design new CD-28 so that it takes in the former border areas of TX-23, the leftover parts of Webb County and then combine them with Midland and Odessa, thus giving us Conaway as an incumbent.  I can get to 62.74% Hispanic population (definitely good enough for VAP or CVAP) and 55.07% McCain numbers while making everything look nice and pretty.

Interesting. When I have time, I'll have to read that decision for quotes supporting their decision to determine districting by resident population, and not the number of VAP citizens, because if they believed the latter was what mattered, they could easily have ruled for using that as the total. There are always quotes and arguments put forward in decisions that are then outweighed by other arguments seen to have more relevance and a stronger constitutional basis--hence "as nearly as practicable." Do you think that the courts would rule that a citizen's right to an equal distribution of CVAP outweighs the right of residents of the U.S. to equal representation regardless of ability or proclivity to vote? Is there evidence that the courts share that view?

I do think it's interesting that Wesberry was decided at a time when the non-citizen adult population in the U.S. was likely at a low for the century... just before immigration reform. However, it was also before the mass registration of African-American citizens in the South, so there were surely districts in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas with a relatively low number of voters. Did Wesberry comment on any of those districts for the purpose of de facto citizens' equal rights to representation vs. adults (not that African-Americans were represented by their representatives)? Did the courts make a nod to the fact that citizenship did not correlate with voting rights, which is a difference in analogizing that population to non-citizens and children today? I would think that if the court had concerns about districts with roughly equal populations but very different sized electorates, they would have seized the opportunity to say something. Whites in predominantly white areas surely were at a disadvantage to whites in heavily minority areas even when the districts were of equal population, as Wesberry decided was the best solution.

Hmm? Blacks in those places were always citizens, even when they couldn't vote. They met the 14th Amendment requirement of being born in the United States. After all, restrictions on black voting did not consist in laws actually banning blacks from voting (to which the courts would have immediately acknowledged they had a constitutional right) but rather on denying all people with low education levels or the inability to pay a fee the vote, or else through extralegal intimidation.

You're right of course, I meant to say "voters" in that particular sentence. The rest of my paragraph makes sense with that correction in mind (which I'll make now), I used "de facto citizens" to refer to those who could vote and distinguish them from those who couldn't. (which also included some poor whites, but that's another discussion.)

I am finding that drawing really good maps requires a heck of a lot of work, Sam, precinct by precinct, and of course the larger number of CD's involved, the more the work. I found PA to be a bear, and Texas must be an utter nightmare. Can you imagine what will be involved to draw CA, with all those rules as an overlay?  Oh dear!

You can't just spend a couple of hours with your mouse, and call it a day. Not for this endeavor.

With Texas, the only real questions occur from Austin southward and westward.  There's really no point to playing around with the other parts of the state that much, the results are obvious, except that it makes a lot of sense to give Johnson, Culberson and Sessions some younger suburbs.  Map #2 will be a bit different in layout than the present gerrymander than Map #1, and I must admit, looks much better.

I'm going to produce a map with 60%+1 Latino population and one with 62.50%+1 Latino population just for comparison.  The second one I know will produce a Hispanic majority even under CVAP, even though I can only get Farenthold up a bit in GOP strength (about 50-50) and there will be two obvious marginals (I can get TX-27 up to marginal status).  With 60%, I can certainly produce 27 seats that should produce GOP reps as the McCain% should be above 50% in the two marginals.

Depending on the actual numbers, this is the map that should be produced b/c you get the two new Hispanic majority CDs (the third would be made up of almost already all Democratic areas in Houston, if done) and 25 certain GOP reps, along with two marginals that look much better than present TX-23 and TX-27.

Actually, the problem with so many CDs is that it makes it harder for you to open up your eyes and see the best solution, which in Texas is 1) combine Cuellar and Hinojosa together - the geography works; 2) split Webb County; 3) include Midland/Odessa in a border CD.

Interview about Texas redistricting.


http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/01/redistricting-q-2.php

MA: I think their starting place will be to try to hold their districts. And they'll do that by keeping the minority percentage the same, but putting in high-voting Anglo-Republicans. High turnout Republicans. What they did this time is they won because you had high turnout among Anglos who vote straight-ticket Republican.

And then they will draw a new Hispanic district in Dallas County and just say that that's a new Hispanic district. Because you can draw it there and not hurt any incumbent. Then they'll draw some kind of Hispanic district, or at least I'll call it a "Hispanic district" from Austin, South. But rather than leave the rest of Travis County for Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D), they'll break up Travis County into three or four pieces.

So Doggett will face a tough race. Either they'll get rid of him by putting him a Republican district or they'll make him run in a Hispanic district. Doggett's been elected in a Hispanic district before; maybe he can do it again. But it keeps Democrats from netting up seats. So then, in effect, what they will have done is created three new Republican districts.



I don't know if I agree with that, but its an interesting point to ponder. It makes much more sense to me just to draw a circle in Travis County and move on.

I don't know where this idea that there's going to be another hispanic majority Dem district in South Texas. I see no reason at all to draw one. If there has to be an 8th hispanic majority district it should use the idea posted above and just rearrange the 3 existing Houston districts.

btw, the next map I'll work on is the Austin pack.  You won't get to 60% Hispanic though, which will probably cause LULAC to file suit for another Hispanic district.  Or maybe not.  

The fact remains is that, without making the map *too* ugly, a pretty safe 25-11 GOP map, with the Austin-San Antonio TX-23, can be created at the 62.5% Hispanic population level with one definite marginal stronger than present TX-23 or TX-27 and another marginal the same or weaker than those..  At the 60%, those two marginals become even stronger, of course.  The issue is that I can't get Farenthold's CD above McCain 52% with 60% Hispanics in its current configuration or something close.  You go to the north and east and you pick up too many whites.

With the Austin pack, I suspect I can get 26-10 with a bit more security, but 27-9 is probably impossible.  It allows me to try to push Farenthold's CD out to the west where I think I can get a better %.  We'll see.  Anything more than 27-9 anywhere, is impossible.  The GOP may be OK with 26-10, since they probably view Farenthold as a fluke, but we'll see.

So, in other words, they're going to follow the initial plan of my maps.  But no one will have the guts to go and draw Midland-Odessa with the border and a Webb County split.  It works - quite well, I might add. 55% McCain.

I got a Farenthold district at 50% McCain, 65% Hispanic:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=129772.msg2765676#msg2765676

You could probably modify it to get 52% McCain, 60% Hispanic pretty easily.  

I should have clarified - without making it look *butt-ugly*.  :)

But even with that, you should seriously think about f-ing Cuellar.  The trick is going up to Midland-Odessa, pulling in rural counties  around that area in west Texas (which have lots of Hispanics) and splitting Webb.

I wouldn't say nobody. Tom Delay might, if they can find a way to contract him from prison.

I still believe the cleanest solution is 26-10, Austin Pack, 3 GOP marginals (Canseco, Farenholdt, and whomever gets the new district), and 7 hispanic majority districts. LULAC will probably complain no matter what you do.

I don't see any court forcing any type of Austin to San Antonio district, which is really just a waste of Republican votes and forces you to crack the Austin liberal whites. I'm going to try to work on a map to use TX 13, 19, and 11 and utterly chop Austin into bits.

The Austin-San Antonio thing won't be forced either, I agree. 

But since I can chop Austin into bits in map #2 with McCain % being 57.50% in all the Austin choppers (map#2 I've designed has it being Smith, Canseco, Neugebauer and Flores!) I don't view it as being that big of a wast.  :)

Map 2 is the 27-9 map, right? 3 Houston, 2 Dallas, 1 El Paso, 1 San Antonio, 2 South Texas?

Not any uglier than some of your dangling arms.   You could call it the Hispanic hook from hell.   :-p

I'm toying with combining that with an Austin-San Antonio VRA district... might be able to get to 25 GOP 2 lean 9 Dem whilst adding two Hispanic seats. 

1 San Antonio-Austin

I can get you 27 McCain districts (25 being 54% or above, 24 being 57.50% or more) with at least 9 Hispanic-majority districts at 60% or more.  But you can probably only count on 26, as the 27th will have to be a kind-of-strange rural district.  The GOP won one of the HDs this year that would almost certainly be in the 27th, and there's the party-switcher, so there will be possible candidates

I just tried this. Utterly, utterly brilliant, if I got it right.

I am not sure about your intention, though, is the intention for the Midland district to be Hispanic? Because I didn't see exactly how to get it there, nor do I see a reason to. I just used my CD-11 to dilute those hyperdem 80% counties.

()


CD-16, CD-20 - Whatever.

CD-23 - 62% Hispanic, 55% McCain

CD-28 - 59% Hispanic, 52% McCain

CD-27 - 59% Hispanic, 53% McCain

CD-33 - new Republican 57% McCain district

CD-11 - now *only* 67% McCain

CD-25 - packed in Lloyd Doggett district

You really limit the Democrats to 1 district in South Texas, and that's TX-15. From here you just rampage over the rest of the map.

don't include San Angelo, but include Midland.  don't go too far west into central Texas.  Pick through the El Paso precincts for strong Hispanic ones.

I've gotten 60.54% Hispanic and 57.32% McCain; 62.73% Hispanic and 55.09% McCain.  Plus, if you include Midland, you get Conaway as an incumbent in a district with a lot of strange rural counties where it's too GOP for Pete Gallego to take a chance.

Forget dreaming. You're not going to get these things past any court, if the TX23 decision is any indication.

What is the impact if Republicans in the legislature decide they'd rather create a seat for one of themselves instead of shoring up a flake like Farenthold in a marginal part of the state?

They pretty much have to add some territory to the border seats and create an additional seat there. Not trying to make that an R seat would be silly. Going north from Corpus and drawing a seat for Farenthold is the obvious choice - otherwise you're forced to do the kind of map krazen and Sam are talking about further west.
Obviously, you could make it a whole lot more marginal on the basis of "look at the seat he won in 2010", but...

Unless you know something about Anthony Kennedy that nobody else does, it shouldn't be any indication.

There's no retrogression, and TX-23, TX-27, and TX-28 all resemble their current shapes. Plus, you get 2 new Hispanic districts TX-33 and TX-9.

Lewis, you're basically forced to go north on Farenthold regardless of whether you do the thing out west I'm talking about if you want to give him a McCain CD.  I'm working on trying to get him to 53% or 54% while staying above 60% Hispanic, but it ain't easy, and is probably as far as I can go.

As for Texas, what is pretty clear is this - you have 24 obvious GOP seats and 7 obvious Dem seats (3 Houston, 2 Dallas, 1 San Antonio, 1 El Paso, 4-5 Hispanic minority majority) in a fairly nice looking map, irregardless.  What's left is Doggett, Cuellar, Hinojosa, Canseco and Farenthold.  Drawing Canseco into a new north Bexar and other district is rather easy, so you'll create an open seat.

As for the rest, another Dem seat has to either be the Hispanic-majority Austin to San Antonio thing I mentioned or the Austin pack.  The Hispanics will insist (especially with Austin pack, but with other too) that the others be Hispanic-majority, and it is hard for me to disagree there because the numbers support it.

So we're left with an OK district for Farenthold and even though I can get one of the others into marginal status (kinda), with South Texas this is always a question mark.

That's where the west idea comes from.  And don't think it has no chance in the courts - under the rules laid out by Kennedy, it is a much stronger argument, as it will 1) have a CVAP of over 50% and 2) be fairly compact (less important argument).

Wait, are you talking about TX-23 (Canseco, the light blue district) or TX-11 (Conoway, the light green district?)

I'm not sure whether you are trying to create 3 McCain Hispanic districts or 4. I found making 3 to be relatively easy. The only question is what you do with the remaining half of Webb County; I chose to just dump it obviously.

One could try to make the Austin-to-San Antonio Hispanic seat the same as the San Antonio Dem seat... that's getting really ambitious but I can make that happen in some configurations.  Might require too many districts pitching in to chop the rest of Austin, though. 

Bexar has close to 1,000,000 Hispanic residents according to the 2009 Census estimates; Travis has about 300,000. You need more than one district for everyone.

Ok, another question. Shouldn't Republicans be worried about banking on multiple 52-54% McCain, 60+% Hispanic districts in places where nearly all of the population growth in the next 10 years is going to make the districts more Democratic?

I don't think anyone is banking on them (although R+5 to R+7 is not all that unsafe), but what else can you do with the territory?

Between the existing 15, 23, 27, 28 Obama I think won all 4 districts. If you could retrogress you'd just pack 1 of the 4 and create safe McCain districts with the other 3, but you can't.

It's not like you're weakening the remaining 24 districts by monkeying around with 23, 27, 28.

What you're trying to do is eliminate a Hispanic opportunity seat (that is, a seat in which the victor will be reliant on widespread Hispanic support), while technically fulfilling a random cutoff line and while creating unnecessarily disparate, huge constituencies in particularly empty minority country. You're doing exactly what the TX-23 decision says you can't do in West Texas, except with several districts. And run the risk of the same thing happening again - your seats struck down and your evil plans for other seats thwarted as an indirect consequence.

---

At which point I went to read the SC decision, because I think I've only ever read the district court's.


Yeah, seems to me like they're saying "random figures like 60% or whatever are not of primary relevance. What matters is the outcome". Oh, and also "what Justice Kennedy thinks is not of primary relevance. These dudes (http://www.txwd.uscourts.gov/general/judges/biographylist.asp) are actually slightly more important - we're unlikely to flat out overturn them unless they unduly provoke us, even if we don't like their reasoning (this is, after all, what they did with TX23 - change the parts of the reasoning that they didn't like while upholding the outcome).
Oh, and here: Yeah, (largely) non-voting Hispanic communities in the Permian Basin and parts of the panhandle are just about the posterbook case for what's described here.

In this case and with these districts... actually I find em quite unsafe. At even money, I'd bet on your TX27 and TX28 voting for Hispanic Democrats most of the time.  Your TX23 wouldn't, but (in conjunction with that 11th) it's not going to last long. It's a fairly unequivocal dilution of Latino voting strength.
The bizarre thing is that from a personal preferences pov, I like a compact Lower Valley district... (though yours isn't as compact as it ought to be)... and that you're at current throwing the gain away by conceding a seat to Doggett. Which is what "ought" to be done, of course, but probably isn't strictly necessary and probably won't be done. Sam's earlier plan to set him up for a battle against Ciro Rodriguez is a very good idea is a very good idea to get rid of him. (Though if I were Canseco I wouldn't have liked Sam's plan at all, actually - safe from the Democrats, but thrown to the Anglo Primary wolves.)

The more I think about it, the surer I am that I know Kennedy's mind on VRA issues quite well.

"I'd much rather not be having to think about them anymore at all. It is my duty to hear these cases, but I am somewhat unlikely to actually listen. Unfortunately not one of my colleagues can be trusted on them, but thankfully most of the lower courts can, and while I reserve the right to contradict them, it is rather unlikely that I will." :-*

It's not like all of those Hispanic residents live in areas that need to be part of the Dem pack.  Especially if a good number of them are used in a San Antonio+points south Hispanic marginal seat.  

I'm basically not worried about that.  Any court-designed map based on present gerrymander (which is what they'll do) is going to be hard not to make 24-12, especially if you play Austin-pack and sacrifice Canseco to the Anglo wolves.  Getting seat #25, in almost any way you design it, becomes quite difficult unless you can do what I did or convince them to let you create an Anglo-majority district for Farenthold.  Any Hispanic minority-majority district with Farenthold can be made stronger, but not safe.  There is, at least, a GOP institutional base in Nueces, so if he screws up, the CD is certainly not lost for good.

As for the rest of your points on LULAC v. Perry I respectfully disagree.  Maybe more later.  The last two Texas maps have gone to the Supremes, so I wouldn't be surprised if Kennedy is involved again.



My point about TX-23 is, once again, how is it dilution of Latino voting strength if, where they are located, they vote more Republican than in other places?  That wasn't really at issue in LULAC, as they voted rather predictably in its prior iteration.  TX-11 is 30% Hispanic, after all, in present form.  Is it a requirement now that you have enough Hispanics that vote Democratic consistently in order for compactness to be met?

My TX-15 and TX-28 are pure border districts and quite legal, regardless of the fact that I can get one of them to potential marginal status if I make Farenthold weaker.  I recognize who they'll probably elect, but that's not the point. 

Lastly, Farenthold's CD will have to push north to take in San Antonio suburbs anyway if you want to make it a good partisan gerrymander with enough Hispanic votes.

The rest of that opinion, though, specifically referenced CVAP and the ability (or inability) to vote for a candidate. The fact that those people don't vote is their own problem.

In any case, the damage is fairly contained. Even if you are correct, all that probably will happen is the 11th and 23rd flipping territory, with the 23rd becoming a 54-55% Obama Laredo to San Antonio seat and the 11th covering the entire empty area. There's little risk I see to the new 28th and new 27th, which are about 6 points more Republican than they were.

The gain, though, isn't Doggett's seat. It's Cuellar's, who would have to run in either the light blue west Texas district or the pink district that doesn't include Laredo. The pink district is a new district intended for some new Republican to run in.

Someone is going to be suing no matter what they do. I doubt that stops anyone. And didn't the district court, or the appeals court, uphold the fajita strip TX-25?

Btw, I may create a version of said map (talked about above in great extent) which leaves Cuellar and Webb intact, thus leaving us to argue whether the fact Canseco and Farenthold got elected in TX-23 and TX-27 means that the Hispanic majority is exercising its vote differently now.  :P

Wait... which map again? My whole "courts'll strike it down" argument is in reference to krazen's map (and probably the new one you're promising), not your first attempt. Your first attempt looks to me like it ought to stand.Yes, but only because that was quite enough on its own to strike it down. It's VRA case law. There aren't any sufficient conditions to prove a district is fine, only necessary conditions. 
The most likely remedy; but also your best-case scenario once the seats have been struck down. They could easily redraw a few more seats while they're at it, as they did in the TX23 case.
Yeah, I was comparing to a hypothetical unposted combination of your and Sam's maps in which they were both targetted. I ought to be technically possible... or would be without the VRA. Anyways, if the Delaymander is anything to go by (possibly not), TX Reps'll be more interested in targetting Doggett than Cuellar.

Oh, quite. :) The question is, how far will they get? The District Court *technically* did, or pretended they did, really. The SC expressly struck it down. The SC decision is really just adapting the DC's logic to better fit the precedent without having to change the outcome, though.

I fully expect the state of Texas to make such an argument, actually. And I don't even think it's wholly inaccurate - Ortiz probably got ousted because he was getting too old and people were tired of him.

Which still makes for a counting error on my part, given that Sam was replacing Doggett with another Democrat. Just noticed that. Sorry.

I would just say the opposite, actually. Part of the point of Delaymandering was to target Cuellar, who wasn't a member of the House yet.

Cuellar almost knocked off Henry Bonilla, so they wanted to knock down the Hispanic % there and remove Laredo from the 23rd. Targeting Doggett was indirect and mostly a side effect because they needed to make a replacement district.

As it stands, last time, they only changed the minimum number of districts required, which was 5 if I recall, and they only made the minimal changes required.

In any case, here's the first redistricting bill. It's set up around 32 districts rather than 36, if someone wants to poke through it.

http://www.connectamarillo.com/news/story.aspx?id=562653

They split Laredo, actually, just as you're doing now. It was an issue in the District Court's ruling. And they drew Cuellar's home into a safe democratic district, which he then ran in, primarying Ciro, so... Not really. They argued afterwards that that was what they had done, though, after it became clear that the original line that Bonilla's was still a Hispanic-opportunity district (or alternatively, that it hadn't been before 2002, and thus didn't need to be made into one just because it would be natural to do so. Which, btw, is a line of logic wholly alien to the VRA) wouldn't fly.

They could have easily left Hinojosa's district alone. Resulting in a less white, less compact seat for Doggett.
Of course, in practice they probably felt that district was just as much of a disgrace as its western neighbors. Changes in outer Bexar (Gonzalez' district was left unchanged) were massive all-round and could easily have been reduced.

You know, I can do my map without splitting Webb, though I really don't think that there is any prohibition against that per se.  Splitting Webb is done because I can get the highest McCain % that way (about 1% more than the others that I've found so far) and it makes the map look the prettiest.  Besides, I like the idea of combining Cuellar and Hinojosa in a primary, though there's no real need for it if you concede TX-28 and 10 seats to the Dems, which the GOP may well do, recognizing that Farenthold was likely a fluke who needs protection and attempting to create another south Texas GOP opportunity seat is unlikely to be successful.

I drew a map that would have 21 safe GOP districts, 1 lean GOP district, 1 Tossup, 2 Lean Dem Districts, and 11 Safe Dem Districts.

Here they are:

CD 14
all of Jefferson County
all of Chambers County
black areas of Orange County
all of Galveston County
southeastern Brazoria County
61 percent white 58 percent McCain
I: Ron Paul
Comments: I wouldn't be surprised if Michael Dukakis won this district. This area has suffered from Archie Bunker's disease.

CD 22
remaining areas of Brazoria County, all of Matagorda County, anglo areas of Fort Bend County, (basically west of HWY 59), 95% of Colorado County, all of Austin County, 90% of Waller County. 59 percent white, 61 percent McCain
I: Pete Olson
Comments: Olson is safe here

CD 9
part of Fort Bend County in Dora Olivo's district; SW Harris County. 36 percent black, 29 percent white, 25 percent Hispanic, 9 percent Asian, 1 percent Other. 68 percent Obama
I: Al Green
Comments: Probably the most diverse district in the nation. The district isn't as dem as the old CD 9 but it is still a D+15

CD 30 all of Eric Johnson's district, all of Helen Giddings district, all of Yvonne Davis's district, all of Barbara Malloy Caraway's district, part of Roberto Alonzo's district. This district is 45 percent black, 29 percent Hispanic, 23 percent white, 2 percent Asian, 1 percent other. Obama got 81 percent here.
I: EBJ
Comments: The blackest district in Texas. Not surprisingly the most democratic.

CD 24 all of Rafael Anchia's district, all of Linda Harper Brown's district, all of Rodney Anderson's district, all of Dan Branch's district, and part of Kenneth Sheets district. 44 percent Hispanic, 42 percent white, 9 percent black, 5 percent Asian. Obama got 53 percent here giving it a PVI of EVEN. No Incumbent Here.

CD 5 NE Dallas County. Mesquite, Garland, Rowlett, Sachse, part of Richardson. 57 percent white. McCain got 52 percent here. Pete Sessions would face Jeb Hensarling in a primary here.
This is my lean Republican seat. It could possibly become a tossup seat by the end of the decade possibly.

CD 23 Part of HD 117, all of HD 118, all of HD 119, all of HD 120, part of HD 35. Counties: Bexar (partial), Atascosa, Karnes, Live Oak, McMullen, Bee (partial). 55 percent Hispanic, Obama got 56 percent here. Lean Democratic. I believe no incumbent is in this district.

CD 31 Brown, Comanche, Mills, Hamilton, Bosque, Somervell, Hill, Navarro, Henderson, Van Zandt (partial), Coryell, Bell (partial), Williamson (partial). 70 percent white, 64 percent McCain.
I: John Carter

CD 12 rural collin county (east of Trinity north of 380), parts of Denton (northern and western parts), NW Tarrant (basically north of I-30/I-820 and west of I-35W). 80 percent white, 65 percent McCain
I: Kay Granger
Comments: A true exurban district

CD 17 McLennan, Limestone, Freestone, Bell (partial), Falls, Milam, Robertson, Leon (partial), Lee, Burleson, Brazos, Washington, Fayette (partial). 67 percent white, 64 percent McCain.
I: Bill Flores (not sure though)

CD 29 all of HD 134, part of HD 146, all of HD 147, all of HD 145, part of HD 148. In Harris County. 44 percent Hispanic, 30 percent White, 19 percent black, 6 percent Asian, 1 percent Other. 63 percent Obama
I: Gene Green

CD 13 SW Tarrant (Benbrook, White Settlement),  Parker, Palo Pinto, Stephens, Shackelford, Jones, Fisher, Scurry, Borden, Garza, Crosby, Floyd, Hale, Swisher, Briscoe, Hall, Childress, Hardeman, Wilbarger, Wichita (partial), Armstrong, Donley, Collingsworth, Carson, Gray, Wheeler, Hemphill, Roberts, Hutchinson, Moore, Hartley, Dallam, Sherman, Hansford, Ochiltree, Lipscomb. 74 percent white, 71 percent McCain
I: Mac Thornberry
 

District 19
Potter, Oldham, Randall, Deaf Smith, Castro, Parmer, Lamb, Bailey, Lubbock, Hockley, Cochran, Lynn, Terry, Yoakum, Dawson, Gaines, Andrews, Martin, Howard, Winkler (partial). 63 percent white, 73 percent McCain
I: Randy Neugebauer
Comments: I don't get why this district is so republican. It borders New Mexico which is a swing/lean blue state

District 3
populated parts of Collin County. Basically everything south of 380 and west of Trinity. 77 percent white, 61 percent McCain
I: Sam Johnson
Comments: May retire soon, Florence Shapiro may run here.

District 18
part of HD 148, all of HD 139, all of HD 140, all of HD 141, some of HD 142. Central and Northern Houston. 45 percent Hispanic, 34 percent black, 18 percent white, 3 percent Asian. 77 percent Obama
I: Sheila Jackson Lee
Comments: Harris County seems to be pretty politically segregated. South of FM 1960 is largely dem, anywhere north of there is fairly republican.

DISTRICT 20
HD 123, HD 125, HD 124, HD 116, part of HD 117. Central Santonio. 66 percent Hispanic. 61 percent Obama
I: Charlie Gonzalez

DISTRICT 26
parts of Richardson, Addison, parts of North Dallas, Carrollton, Coppell, anglo areas of Farmers Branch, Lewisville, the Colony, Lake Dallas, Little Elm, Corinth, Hackberry, Hebron
69 percent white, 58 percent McCain
I: Kenny Marchant vs. Michael Burgess in GOP primary

DISTRICT 10
all of HD 52, all of HD 50, all of HD 46, part of HD 48. Northern Travis, Southeastern Williamson.
59 percent white, 59 percent Obama
I: Michael McCaul
Comments: how does a district so white, vote so democratic?

DISTRICT 1
Bowie, most of Franklin, Titus, Morris, Cass, Camp, Upshur, Marion, Harrison, Gregg, Smith, Rusk, Panola. 70 percent white, 69 percent McCain
I: Louis Gohmert "Gohmert Pyle"

DISTRICT 11
Winkler (partial), Ector, Midland, Glasscock, Sterling, Mitchell (partial), Nolan (partial), Coke, Runnells, Coleman, McCulloch, Concho, Tom Green, Irion, Reagan, San Saba, Lampasas, western Williamson, Burnett, Llano, Mason, Menard, Schleicher, Crockett, Sutton, Kimble, Kerr (partial), Real, Bandera. 68 percent white, 73 percent McCain
I: Mike Conaway

DISTRICT 33
Parts of HD 142, all of HD 143, HD 144, HD 129, parts of HD 128. SE Harris County
49 percent white, 37 percent Hispanic, 9 percent black, 5 percent Asian. 57 percent McCain
I: None
Comments: Areas like Deer Park, LaPorte, Baytown, and parts of Pasadena have all caught Archie Bunker's disease

DISTRICT 7
Piney Point, Hunters Creek, Hilshire, Bunker Hill, Hedwig Villages, parts of Cypress, parts of Katy (entirely south of 290 though) 56 percent white, 59 percent McCain
I: John Culberson

CD 34
Bastrop, Caldwell, far western Hays, southern Fayette, Gonzales, Lavaca, small area in Colorado, Wilson, DeWitt, Jackson, Victoria, Goliad, Calhoun, Refugio, Aransas, San Patricio, Nueces (partial), Bee (partial). 52 percent white, 59 percent McCain
I: Blake Farenthold (I think)
Comments: I just made Farenthold a hell of a lot more safer assuming he lives in this district

CD 21
Frank Corte Jr and Joe Strauss's districts in Bexar County, Comal, Guadalupe, Kendall, Gillespie, Kerr (partial). 70 percent white, 65 percent McCain
I: Lamar Smith

CD 27
all of HD 38
all of HD 37
all of HD 43
some of HD 34
some of HD 39
all of Cameron County, all of Willacy County, all of Kenedy county, all of Brooks County, all of Jim Hogg, all of Kleberg, all of Jim Wells, parts of Nueces, parts of Hidalgo County. 79 percent hispanic, 60 percent Obama
I: None

CD 2
most of Orange County, Hardin, Liberty, Newton, Jasper, Tyler, Polk, San Jacinto, northern Walker, Madison, Leon (east of I-45), Trinity, Houston, Angelina, San Augustine, Sabine, Shelby, Nacogdoches, Cherokee, Anderson
75 percent white 71 percent McCain
I: None
Comments: "I Like Sugar and I Like Tea but I don't like _______ no sirree" sums up this district

CD 15
part of HD 39, all of HD 36, all of HD 41, part of HD 40. Entirely within Hidalgo County. This district is 88 percent hispanic and Obama got 69 percent here.
I: Ruben Hinojosa

CD 28
Western Hidalgo, Starr, Zapata, Webb, Duval, LaSalle, Frio, Medina, Uvalde, Zavala, Dimmit, Maverick, Kinney, Edwards, Val Verde, Terrell, Pecos, Crane, Upton, Ward, Loving, Brewster, Presidio, Jeff Davis, Reeves, Culberson, Hudspeth, small eastern areas of El Paso County. 84 percent hispanic, 62 percent Obama
I: Henry Cuellar (but Jose Canseco lives here too)

CD 8
most exurban part of Harris County (west of 249, east/north of 290, north of FM 1960), far northern part of Waller County, all of Grimes County, all of Montgomery County, part of Walker County (in Huntsville)

CD 25
parts of HD 48, all of HD 47, all of HD 49, all of HD 51, part of HD 45. counties: Travis (partial), Blanco, Hays (everything except Kyle). 63 percent white, 60 percent Obama.
I: Lloyd Doggett
Comment: How can a 63 percent white district be this democratic?

CD 35
Klein, Spring, Humble, Kingwood, Atascosita. Northern and Eastern parts of Harris County. 65 percent white, 62 percent McCain.
I: Ted Poe

CD 4
Wood, Rains, Hunt, Rockwall, Hunt, Hopkins, Delta, Lamar, Red River, far northern precinct of Franklin, Fannin, Grayson, Cooke, Montague, Wise, Jack, Clay, Archer, Young, far southern precincts of Wichita County, Throckmorton, Baylor, Haskell, Knox, Foard, Stonewall, King, Cottle, Motley, Dickens, Kent. 84 percent white, 73 percent McCain
Comments: The whitest district in Texas. Hall may retire soon; not sure who would replace him

CD 6
eastern Nolan, Taylor, Callahan, Eastland, Erath, Hood, Johnson, Kaufman, NW precincts of Van Zandt. 79 percent white, 73 percent McCain
I: Joe Barton

CD 32
all of HD 90, all of HD 95, all of HD 94, all of HD 96, a few precincts in the southern part of HD 93. Central and Eastern Tarrant County. 49 percent white, 26 percent Hispanic, 20 percent Black, 5 percent Asian. Obama got 54 percent here. Lean Dem
I: None
Comments: Lon Burnam vs. Diane Patrick for this race maybe?

CD 36
eastern and northern areas of Tarrant County. Far eastern parts of Arlington, Euless, Bedford, Hurst, NRH, Haltom City, Watauga, Keller, Southlake, Grapevine. 71 percent white, 61 percent McCain
I: None

CD 16
most of El Paso County. 76 percent Hispanic, 65 percent Obama
I: Silvestre Reyes

I've got a map with 8-9 Hispanic districts (depending on whether you want 1 or 2 in Houston) that goes 26 solid GOP, 2 swingish-lean-GOP, and ONLY 8 DEMOCRATIC DISTRICTS!!!!  Now, whether this is too ugly to pass muster is another question, and I haven't bothered to check where incumbents live too much.  But here goes:

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It's not complete, but the rest of the map should be easy.  

Going along the border:

* El Paso district in green.  

* El Paso/Odessa/Midland/Laredo district in pale aquamarine: 65% Hispanic, 56-43 McCain.  Solid GOP.  Midland is split so Conaway might or might not be in this district.  

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* Midland/San Angelo/San Antonio/border in royal blue: this is a mess but it's not a VRA district so it doesn't matter.  49% Hispanic, 56-43 McCain.  Might be Conaway's or Canseco's, depending on where they live.  

* McAllen/Brownsville in violet-red: 92% Hispanic for Hinojosa.  

* Harlingen-Corpus Christi-Victoria district in spring green for Farenthold: 62% Hispanic, 52-47 McCain.  

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* McAllen-San Antonio district in Orange for the party-switcher, or maybe for Canseco: 65% Hispanic, 51-48 McCain.  

* north Bexar district in purple for Lamar Smith: 55-44 McCain.  You didn't think there would be a GOP district this compact, did you?  :) 

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* the Austin-San Antonio pack in greenish grey: 71% Hispanic.  If you get enough heavily Hispanic areas in SA then you can put the black areas of *both* Austin and San Antonio in this district - this is nice if you are trying to crack Austin since the black areas are about 20 points bluer than the Hispanic ones.  

* Bexar county-New Braunfels-San Marcos-Austin + counties northwest in reddish-brown: 55-43 McCain.

* Austin-west Travis/Williamson-rural counties to the northwest in yellow: 55-44 McCain.

* north Austin-Round Rock-Waco outskirts in teal: 55-43 McCain.

* east Austin-Houston exurbs in bronze: 55-44 McCain.

* Corpus Christi-Galveston in maroon: This district still has 107K to go but it's at 56-44 McCain.  

* Abilene-Waco-Killeen-Temple in orange: This district is short 64K right now (not enough to take in Lubbock) but it's at 60-39 McCain.  

Actually the goal was to provide a district which Cuellar could win.  Remember that Cuellar had been appointed SOS by Rick Perry (just after Bush had resigned, so it may have even been Bush's decision).

The 2002 election was just an attempt by Laredoans to take back the district that had been taken from them when Albert Bustamante had beaten Chick Kazen in the 1984 primary.

Historical Texas Congressional Districts (http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/historical_congress.htm)

 Texas Congressional Map 1934-1956 (http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/congress_historical/c_1934_1956.pdf)

Texas gained 3 seats after the 1930 census.  CD 15 is the border district.  Prior to redistricting it had also included the Brush Country.  This was also the first redistricting when Harris, Dallas, and Bexar had their own CD.  CD 8 (Harris County) was only 29% over.

It was after the 1930 Census that Bexar, Dallas, and Harris counties were each entitled to 7 state representatives, and the Texas Constitution was changed to require 100,000 persons for each additional representative.  At the time, each representative represented 38,831 persons.

By 1940, CD 8 was 173% of the statewide average, and by 1950 CD 8 was 219% of the statewide average.  Texas had gained a 22nd representative in 1952, but he was elected at large.

 Texas Congressional Map 1958-1964 (http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/congress_historical/c_1958_1964.pdf)

In 1958, the legislature got around to splitting Harris County, which by then had over a million persons.  After the 1960 Census, Texas gained another representative who was elected at large.  Dallas County, CD 5, with 951,000 persons was the most populous district in the country at the time of Wesberry v Sanders (see Appendix to Harlan dissent), 4.40 times the population of the least populous district in Texas.

In 2000 legislative hearings on redistricting, Martin Frost's henchman Gerry Hebert cited this example as being a Texas tradition of protecting incumbents.  In 1960, Joe Pool had run from this district and lost, while garnering almost as many votes as Sam Rayburn and Wright Patman combined.  Unfortunately for Pool, he was running as a Democrat in the only Republican district in Texas, and only got 42% of the vote.  Hebert claimed that the legislature made Pool run at large in 1962, when Texas got another representative, but no redistricting.  In fact, the Democrats were denying representation to Republicans.

 Texas Congressional Map 1966 (http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/congress_historical/c_1966.pdf)

 Texas Congressional Map 1968-1970 (http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/congress_historical/c_1968_1970.pdf)

Bush v Martin brought one man one vote to Texas.   Bush is George Bush who was Republican State chairman at the time.  In 1966, Bush was elected to Congress from CD 7 which had been moved into Harris County, which increased the Republican representation to 2 from zero.  The other was CD 18 in the panhandle.  The Dallas district had been lost in the 1964 landslide, and Joe Pool won election in CD 3.  After his death, a 3rd Republican was elected.

Notice in particular the 2nd map which implemented one man, one vote, and see what evil the VRA has inflicted since.

There were now 3 CD's wholly within Harris County, 2 within Dallas, and 1 each in Tarrant and Bexar counties.

CD 15 moved to the lower valley, and CD 23 was created south of San Antonio.  In its initial configuration, only 15% of the district was in Bexar County, and about 15% in Webb County.  Chick Kazen of Laredo was elected in this district.

 Texas Congressional Map 1972 (http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/congress_historical/c_1972.pdf)

 Texas Congressional Map 1974 (http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/congress_historical/c_1974.pdf)

 Texas Congressional Map 1976-1980  (http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/congress_historical/c_1976_1980.pdf)

The 1972 redistricting pushed CD 23 northward due to slow rural growth.  It appears that the court ordered changes had to do with more rigorous enforcement of equal population, with some really ugly splits (see boundary between 11 and 17 where 3 counties ended up being chopped.

The 24th district was created in Tarrant and Dallas counties, and CD 18 was moved from the Panhandle to Harris County, where Barbara Jordan was elected.

CD 15 was now 35% in Bexar County, and about 16% in Webb County, and continued to be represented by Kazen.

 Texas Congressional Map 1982  (http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/congress_historical/c_1982.pdf)

 Texas Congressional Map 1984-1990  (http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/congress_historical/c_1984_1990.pdf)

1980 brought 3 more districts to Texas.  CD 25 was created in Harris County, CD 26 in the Dallas suburbs, and CD 27 the coastal strip of South Texas.

Since South Texas really didn't have the population for a 3rd district, this shifted CD 15 to the west and north, much more into Bexar County.  In the 1984 configuration, Bexar County went to 45% of the district, with Webb now 19%, and loss of much of the district south of San Antonio,   In 1984, Albert Bustamante of San Antonio beat Kazen in the Democratic primary.

 Texas Congressional Map 1992-1996(primary)  (http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/congress_historical/c_1992_1996P.pdf)

 Texas Congressional Map 1996(general)-2000  (http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/congress_historical/c_1996G_2000.pdf)

This was the Frostrosity redistricting.  Egged on by Governor Ann Richards who likened redistricting to hog butchering, and compared a federal court judge to a baby in a high chair, three new districts were hacked out, CD 28 in "South Texas", CD 29 in Harris County, and CD 30 in Dallas County.  Notice all the splits of Midland, Odessa, San Angelo, Lubbock, Amarillo, Tyler, and Nacogdoches.  Besides creating 3 Democratic seats, the Democrats tried to maintain control of other districts, and would eventually lose 5, 9, 12, 13, 14, and 23.

CD 28 of course is a thinly disguised San Antonio district.  Since so much of its population is from Bexar County, it forced a radical shift of CD 23 to the west.  Albert Bustamante also wanted his new mansion in northwest San Antonio to be in his district.  Bexar County was only 27% of the district, and Webb had grown to 24%.  Henry Bonilla beat Bustamante in 1992, in party by running ads showing Bustamante's kited checks from the House Banking Scandal and pictures of his new mansion.

Bush v Vera in 1996 resulted in redrawing the districts in the Dallas and Houston areas, and meant that elections in 13 districts were run as special elections, with the primary results discarded.  This had no impact on South Texas.

 Texas Congressional Map 2002  (http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/congress_historical/c_2002.pdf)

The federal district court drew the map in 2002 cleaning up lines to some extend but see CD 4 and CD 5 for example.  The two new districts were CD 31 running from Houston to Round Rock, and CD 32 in Dallas.

CD 23 had only minor adjustments, but now Webb County had 30% of the district, while Bexar was down down to 26%.  When Henry Cuellar challenged Henry Bonilla it was a geographically polarized election more than racially polarized.  But because some of the border counties are so heavily Hispanic you can convince some judges that it was racially polarized.

 Texas Congressional Map 2004-2006 primary  (http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/congress_historical/c_2004_2006.pdf)

After the 2001 district court decision invited the legislature to perform its redistricting duties, this map was drawn in 2003.  This map clearly demonstrates that you can't draw 6 border districts.  Henry Cuellar defeated Ciro Rodriguez in the 2004 primary, which simply was another illustration of geographical polarization.

Just for fun, compare CD 27 between the 2002 and 2004 maps.

 Texas Congressional Map 2006 general-2010 (http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/congress_historical/c_2006G_2010.pdf)

These are the districts drawn in 2006.  With Webb placed entirely in CD 28, Bexar County is now 56% of CD 23.  Had it been an ordinary election, Henry Bonilla would have defeated Ciro Gonzalez in 2006, and Quico Canseco did in 2010.

The Supreme Court in 2006 ruled that CD 25 did not count for VRA purposes.  But are CD 15 and CD 28 really any better?  They bypass nearby communities to include far distant population

CD 28: 340 miles (McAllen, Laredo, Floresville, Seguin)
CD 15: 220 miles (McAllen, Alice, Cuero)

CD 23 perhaps could be defended as being "compact" on the basis of having to stick the Trans-Pecos somewhere.  But San Antonio-Del Rio-El Paso is 580 miles and doesn't even include the direct highway route between El Paso and San Antonio, adding another 1-1/2 to a trip that is already 7-1/2 hours.

The first prong of the Gingles Test is that a geographically compact minority can form a majority in a single-member district.  But doesn't that imply that the single-member district should also be compact?

It's probably easier to get to from the Texas legislature website.

It is essentially a shell bill.  The Texas Constitution has lots of restrictions on the process of legislation.  In particular, the first month or so of the session is restricted to committee consideration of bills.   So filing a bill permits it to be assigned to a redistricting committee, so that hearings can be held.  You may notice that the bills give the Plan number on the Redviewer site.

I wouldn't be surprised if the congressional and SBOE plans weren't also filed in the House as well.  Traditionally, the two houses redistrict themselves.  The bills then go to the opposite house, where it arranged that they are voted on at the same time.  Doormen are stationed at opposite end of the capital so that they can verify that the two bills are simultaneously gaveled as being approved.

Lepak v City of Irving, currently pending in federal district court (Northern District, Texas), challenges the notion of whether a city may "voluntarily" draw districts such that the influence of voters in some districts is diluted, even though the districts have the same number of persons, especially when equal population districts can be drawn that do have relatively equal numbers of voters.

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Here is Frostrocity Redux. Blue district is District 10. McCaul is the incumbent. 59 percent white, 59 percent Obama. Pink District is District 36. Lloyd Doggett (or as freepers call him Lloyd Dogs#it) is the incumbent. This district is 62% white and Obama got 60 percent here. In a state where McCain won 73 percent of the white vote, I'm surprised Obama could win any districts that are 55-65 percent white.

()]This is the Rio Grande Valley. District 28 stretches from the western edge of Hidalgo County all the way to the eastern part of El Paso County. Easily one of the largest geographical districts in the U.S. and probably the largest in Texas. This district is 84 percent hispanic and Obama got 63 percent here. Henry Cuellar is the incumbent here.

The orange district takes in most of El Paso County. This district is 76 percent hispanic and Obama got 65 percent here. The incumbent is Silvestre Reyes.

Hidalgo County has grown to the extent that a district can be entirely within it. District 15 (in green) is 88 percent hispanic and Obama got 69 percent here. Ruben Hinojosa is the incumbent.

The district that takes in the far southern coastal counties is District 27. It takes in a small part of Hidalgo County, all of Cameron County, and parts of Nueces County. This district is 79 percent hispanic and Obama got 60 percent here. I split up Nueces County so Farenthold has the option of either running in District 27 and taking a gamble OR running in District 14 and facing Ron Paul in a primary. Farenthold might have a decent shot of unseating Paul as he will be 77 in 2012.

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This is the district Farenthold may run in if he wishes to challenge Ron Paul in a primary. This is district 14 in green. It is 53 percent white and McCain got 61 percent here.

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This is Central Texas. The district in brown is District 31. It basically takes in areas that were in Doggett or McCaul's old district. This district is 70 percent white and McCain got 62 percent here. John Carter should be fine here.

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District 4 is in silver. Time to pack it in Ralph. Not only has your district been transformed to a mostly rural district to a nearly 100 percent suburban one, but you are 80 odd years old and a turncoat (what ticks me off about you). Instead Taliban Pete would run in this district. He is slightly more safe here in a 60 percent white and 55 percent McCain district.

District 5 is in red. This is 39 percent white 33 percent black 25 percent hispanic and 3 percent Asian. Obama got 68 percent here. Hensarling is the incumbent here.

District 12 is in light blue. Basically takes in the most exurban parts of Denton County, undeveloped areas in western Tarrant County, and some uber wealthy areas in northern Tarrant County like Southlake or River Oaks. Granger is the incumbent here and will be fine in a 82 percent white and 67 percent McCain district.

District 24 is in puke green and takes in the most democratic areas of Tarrant County. This district is 49 percent white 27 percent hispanic 20 percent black and 4 percent Asian. This is an open seat and would probably be a lean R seat. Lon Burnam or Marc Veasey may run here.

District 26 is a green/light green and takes in NW Dallas County, SE Denton, and parts of West Plano in Collin County. Here Kenny Marchant faces off against Michael Burgess in a primary. I'm not sure who would win, both have been in office for about 5-10 years, both are fairly conservative but not a Steve King type loudmouth, and both are around 60 years old. Whoever would win the primary would be reasonably safe in a 68 percent white, 57 percent McCain district.

District 30 is in pink. This is the most hispanic district in the metroplex at 44 percent hispanic. Other races include 29 percent white, 23 percent black, 3 percent Asian, 1 percent Other. Obama got 69 percent here. Eddie Bernice Johnson can run either in District 5 or District 30. If she wants to run here that's fine, but if she wants to run in District 5 and face off against Hensarling that would be fine too. This would lead to an open seat where Rafael Anchia or Roberto Alonzo would probably run.

District 32 is in orange/light orange. It takes in some of northern Dallas and southern Collin county. Although the district is renumbered, Sam Johnson is the incumbent here. This district is 72 percent white and McCain got 58 percent here, which is actually an improvement since the 1980s, when the area in this district was probably the most republican in the country.

District 35 is dark brown in eastern and northern Tarrant County. This district is 67 percent white and McCain got 58 percent here.

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this is East Texas. The dark purple district is District 34. No incumbent is in here, but a republican will almost certainly represent this district. This district is 74 percent white and McCain got 70 percent here.

The light purple district below it is District 8. Kevin Brady is the incumbent here and is safe in a 76 percent white and 71 percent McCain district.

The light blue district is District 9. This district here has no incumbent depending on whether Ron Paul wants to stay in District 14 or run in this district. If this is an open seat, the right democrat (like Craig Eiland) could win this district. Nick Lampson and Jack Brooks used to represent this district. The sad thing about this district is that it used to be solid democrat and even Dukakis won this area. But this is a racist district. This district is 60 percent white and McCain got 56 percent here.


The silver district is District 11. It basically takes in  part of Waco and runs through Collie Station. This district is 60 percent white and McCain got 59 percent here. Flores is safe here unless Edwards wants his seat back.

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This is the Houston Area. Although county results show Dallas County to be more democratic voting than Harris County, this maps confirms that the Houston area is still more democratic as a whole.

Dark Blue District is District 2. Ted Poe is incumbent here. This district is 65 percent white and McCain got 63 percent here

Yellow district is District 18. This district is 42 percent hispanic, 37 percent black, 18 percent white, and 3 percent Asian. Obama got 78 percent here. Sheila Jackson Lee is the incumbent here.

Dark blue district is District 29. Basically takes in some wealthy areas near downtown and also working class areas like NW Pasadena, Jacinto City, Galena Park, South Houston. Gene Green is the incumbent here and is safe in a 54 percent hispanic and 62 percent Obama district.

Silver district is District 25. Probably one of the most diverse districts in the country. 32 percent white, 28 percent hispanic, 26 percent black, 13 percent Asian, 1 percent Other. Obama got 62 percent here. Al Green (no not the singer) is the incumbent here and should be safe, although not as safe as he was in his old district.

Pink District is District 22. This is my big F#ck you to Tom DeLay. A 40 percent white district, 27 percent black, 22 percent hispanic district. Obama got 55 percent here. Lean Dem district, but Pete Olson could survive for a few cycles if he runs as a moderate.

Purple district is District 7. Basically the wealthy areas of midwest Harris County. 60 percent white and 61 percent McCain. Culberson should be fine here.

Light blue district is District 33. Takes in the most exurban and most republican parts of Harris County. 71 percent white, 67 percent McCain district.

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this is Northeast Texas. The purple district is District 3. It is basically the same as old district 4 except that it doesn't have Rockwall County and has more of Collin County in it. This would be a safe republican district at 79 percent white and 68 percent McCain.

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this is a zoomed out area of the state as a whole. Other districts is District 19 in dark pink which is Lubbock Midland area and snakes around to Edwards Plateau. Mike Conaway would face Randy Nawguhbower in a primary. Whoever would win the primary would be safe because the district is 61 percent white and McCain got 73 percent here.

The light pink district is District 6. With the removal of the Fort Worth area, this district becomes much more republican. This district is 77 percent white and McCain got 72 percent here.

The dark purple district west of the metroplex is District 17. This is similar to Charlie Stenholm's old district. He could run here if he wanted too, but he's probably a little old to be making a comeback as he would be 74 in 2012. If he doesn't want to run, a republican will undoubtedly win here. The republicanism in this county is fairly recent. Bill Clinton managed to win a few of the counties in this district. This is the thesis for "What's the Matter with Kansas?" This district is 81 percent white and McCain got 75 percent here.

The light green district east of the metroplex is District 1. This is in many ways the western edge of the deep south. This is Gohmert's district and will be fine in a 76 percent white and a 71 percent McCain district

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This light green district is District 13. This district is 65 percent white and would easily be in the top ten most republican districts in the nation as McCain got 76 percent here.

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This is the San Antonio area. Pink district is District 20. This is Charlie Gonzalez's district and is 65 percent hispanic. Obama got 60 percent here.

The gold district is District 23. This is Canseco's district. This district is 55 percent hispanic. Canseco is in the same scenario as Pete Olsen. He would represent a 55 percent Obama district and may survive a few cycles, but the next time a dem wave year comes, he's gone.

The tan district is District 21. This takes in the only strong GOP areas in Bexar County and also some German counties to the NW. Lamar Smith is a lot safer in a 74 percent white and 67 percent McCain district.

I started out on the premise that an 18-18 Texas oughtn't to be hard if you ignore Blacks' VRA rights, but I got greedy. Guess it's no coincidence that I share a (real life) first name with one former Congressman Frost.

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Enhances:

Dallas

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Houston

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San Antonio with Austin

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This is far from perfect - there's still a few Democrats marooned in Dallas area Republican districts, there's still far too few Republicans trapped in Houston area Democratic districts, and those border districts slice it far too close - I had 50.5% Obama as a minimum goal, but in the end I decided I didn't want to draw that necessary tentacle into Austin or revisit the El Paso split, and was satisfied with a plurality in two of them. :D

CD2 Beaumont and Galveston, 52% Obama, 45% white, 29% black, 21% hispanic
CD5 SE Dallas and adjoining rural parts, 52% Obama, 60% white
CD7 NW Houston, 55% Obama, 38% white, 34% hispanic, 20% black
CD9 SW Houston, 55% Obama, 32% white, 30% hispanic, 25% black
CD11 a new additional bacon strip to go between Cuellar and Hinojosa, 50% Obama, 62% hispanic
CD12 Fort Worth, 55% Obama, 48% white, 28% hispanic, 19% black
CD15 made a lot more erose, 52% Obama, 69% hispanic
CD16 El Paso to Odessa, 55% Obama, 66% hispanic
CD18 Central Houston, 56% Obama, 49% white, 24% black, 22% hispanic
CD20 WC San Antonio, 51% Obama, 53% hispanic
CD21 EC San Antonio, 51% Obama, 47% hispanic, 40% white
CD22 South Houston, a whopping 62% Obama, 36% white, 33% black, 21% hispanic
CD23 still the huge southwestern district, but now with no San Antonio, only half of Laredo, but with Midland, half of Odessa, half of Abilene and a much larger share of El Paso. 51% Obama, 71% hispanic
CD25 roughly where it was, 55% Obama, 57% white
CD27 roughly as is, 52% Obama, 67% hispanic
CD28 now stretching all the way from Brownsville to Abilene. 53% Obama, 75% hispanic
CD29 East Houston, 55% Obama, 59% hispanic
CD30 East Dallas, 54% Obama, 48% white, 26% hispanic, 22% black
CD31 NW Austin, Round Rock, 52% Obama, 75% white
CD32 Central Dallas, 53% Obama, 45% white, 34% hispanic
CD33 West Dallas County, 53% Obama, 42% white, 39% hispanic
CD34 NE Austin and points north, 56% Obama, 53% white

Oh yeah, Republicans get districts too.
CD1 East Texas, 70% McCain
CD2 Collin County, 61% McCain
CD4 NE Texas, 69% McCain
CD6 suburban Forth Worth, 59% McCain
CD8 Montgomery County and stuff, 70% McCain
CD10 NW Houston and points beyond, 67% McCain
CD13 NW Texas, 76% McCain
CD14 Ronpaulland, 67% McCain
CD17 West Central Texas, 74% McCain
CD19 NW Texas, 72% McCain
CD24 Tarrant/Denton, 63% McCain
CD26 NW Dallas Metro, 68% McCain
CD35 from the southern outskirts of Dallas to Orange County, 70% McCain
CD36 and to think that this actually includes all of Waco. 68% McCain

Martin is a name used in Germany? I thought it was French.

Ever heard of Luther?

Do you mean the German churchman or the badly written TV cop show?

I meant Luther Vandross, of course.

Hmmmm, I don't think or remember things well immediately after waking up.

This is the last map I'm going to do until the new numbers come out.  It is really four maps, all of which "pack" Austin, one based on an Odessa-San Antonio TX-23 with 63% Hispanic and no Webb intrusion, the second based on an Odessa-Midland-Laredo TX-23 with 63% Hispanic and a Webb split.  The other two maps give TX-27 60% Hispanic instead of 63% Hispanic with this configuration.

Also, I saw an earlier comment on precincts after new numbers come out - Texas counties almost never redraw their precincts, rather they split current precincts up (when they become too big, I guess).  I should know why but I don't.

Goals:
1) 24 safe GOP seats (McCain 60.00% or greater)
2) 10 safe DEM seats (Obama packs)
3) 2 marginal GOP seats (TX-23 = McCain 55%; TX-27 = McCain 52% (if 63% Hispanic) or McCain 54% (if 60% Hispanic)
4) All incumbents get a seat.  (Exceptions: Canseco has to go into TX-36, where his greatest danger will be an Anglo GOP.  In the Odessa-Midland-Laredo TX-23, Conaway has to go into TX-23 (unless he's scared, and he may well be - he would certainly b!tch), leaving TX-11 open)
5) 8 Hispanic-Majority seats, 2 Black-majority seats, 2 Minority-Majority seats.
6) No safe GOP seat has greater than 29.50% Hispanic population to avoid claims of dilution. (Exception: In the Odessa-Midland-Laredo TX-23 with TX-27 = 60% Hispanic, TX-14 (Paul) has 30.90% Hispanic.  It would require a major redesign of a lot of other Houston area seats (and possibly TX-17 and TX-21) to get this one right, so I passed.  Let them complain - it doesn't make any difference as to the result in TX-14).
7) All deviations under 1,000.

TX-X = Odessa only, TX-23 and TX-27 = 63% Hispanic
TX-Xa = Odessa + Midland, TX-23 and TX-27 = 63% Hispanic
TX-Xb = Odessa only, TX-27= 60% Hispanic
TX-Xc = Odessa + Midland, TX-27 = 60% Hispanic

I think that's about it.

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TX-1
a) Gohmert
b) McCain 69, Obama 30 (previous McCain 69, Obama 31)
c) White 70, Black 20, Hispanic 8, Asian 2
d) Basically the same as before, except it takes in Texarkana now and removes parts south.

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TX-2
a) Poe
b) McCain 63, Obama 36 (previous McCain 60, Obama 40)
c) White 63, Hispanic 24, Black 8, Asian 5
d) Now a Harris County only seat, it wraps around the city of Houston, with the most important GOP parts being in NW Houston.  I believe Poe lives here; if not, he lives in neighboring TX-35, no biggie.

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TX-3
a) Johnson
b) McCain 61 (60.95), Obama 38 (previous McCain 57, Obama 42)
c) White 77, Hispanic 9, Asian 9, Black 5
d) Now a Collin County only seat, it stretches much further north to pick up virgin suburban territory.

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TX-4
a) Hall
b) McCain 64, Obama 35 (previous McCain 69, Obama 30)
c) White 66, Hispanic 16, Black 12, Asian 5
d) Hall's CD moves away from east Texas to pick up some inner Dallas suburbs, including Garland.  Splitting these suburbs east of US-75 is key to making a good Dallas gerrymander.

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TX-5
a) Hensarling
b) McCain 62, Obama 37 (previous McCain 63, Obama 36)
c) White 71, Hispanic 15, Black 12, Asian 3
d) Hensarling's CD shifts further west to pick up some more inner Dallas suburbs and even some Waco suburbs.  I'm pretty sure he lives here.  Anyway, the key here is keeping fast-growing Kaufman County in its midst.

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TX-6
a) Barton
b) McCain 61 (61.16), Obama 38 (previous McCain 60, Obama 40)
c) White 74, Hispanic 14, Black 9, Asian 4
d) The areas in Tarrant and Dallas County are quite marginal (mostly taken from TX-24).  The areas in the three counties to the South are not.

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TX-7 (Odessa only)
a) Culberson
b) McCain 61 (61.00), Obama 38 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 64, Hispanic 23, Asian 8, Black 5
d) Pushing the McCain % up is achieved by taking in virgin suburban territory in NW Houston where whitey is.

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TX-7a & TX-7c (Odessa + Midland)
a) Culberson
b) McCain 61 (60.56), Obama 38 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 64, Hispanic 23, Asian 8, Black 5
d) The only change here is made because TX-22 needed a little more McCain %.

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TX-7b (Odessa only, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Culberson
b) McCain 61 (60.50), Obama 38 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 63, Hispanic 23, Asian 8, Black 5
d) Ditto with TX-7a.

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TX-8
a) Brady
b) McCain 64, Obama 35 (previous McCain 74, Obama 26)
c) White 70, Black 16, Hispanic 11, Asian 3
d) TX-8 moves to take in all old parts of TX-2 (including Jefferson County) and Montgomery is split in half.  So is the city of Galveston (not necessary, but amusing).  Montgomery is too useful for the GOP not to split it up.  :P

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TX-9
a) Green
b) Obama 73, McCain 27 (previous Obama 77, McCain 23)
c) Hispanic 34, Hispanic 32, White 21, Asian 13, Other 1
d) Very similar to before, except it heads further into Fort Bend.

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TX-10 & TX-10b (Odessa only)
a) McCaul
b) McCain 61 (60.58), Obama 38 (previous McCain 55, Obama 44)
c) White 76, Hispanic 18, Asian 4, Black 3
d) Instead of heading east this time, we head west to pick up sizable chunks of German Texas, San Angelo and assorted rural counties.  And we end up with a safer CD.  I think I have McCaul, but if not, he can just move somewhere else in Austin.

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TX-10a & TX-10c (Odessa + Midland)
a) McCaul
b) McCain 60 (60.00), Obama 39 (previous McCain 55, Obama 44)
c) White 76, Hispanic 17, Asian 4, Black 2
d) Minor changes - the CD moves further south to pick up even more of German Texas.

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TX-11 (Odessa only)
a) Conaway
b) McCain 68, Obama 31 (previous McCain 76, Obama 24)
c) White 64, Hispanic 20, Black 13, Asian 3, Other 1
d) This fajita strip is compressed a bit, and makes sure to pick up Fort Hood/Killeen to the east.

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TX-11a (Odessa + Midland)
a) None
b) McCain 68, Obama 31 (previous McCain 76, Obama 24)
c) White 64, Hispanic 20, Black 12, Asian 3, Other 1
d) In exchange for dropping Midland, a whole bunch of rural counties are picked up, making Abilene the population center of the CD.  Conaway lives in TX-23 in this makeup, so no incumbent!

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TX-12
a) Granger
b) McCain 62, Obama 38 (previous McCain 63, Obama 36)
c) White 74, Hispanic 14, Black 9, Asian 4
d) Picks up territory from TX-6 and TX-13, in exchange for dropping Wise County.  In actuality, this is rather cosmetic.

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TX-13
a) Thornberry
b) McCain 71, Obama 28 (previous McCain 77, Obama 23)
c) White 79, Hispanic 11, Black 7, Asian 3
d) I figure if we have border districts to the south, why not have a border district in the north.  :P

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TX-14 (Odessa only)
a) Paul
b) McCain 63, Obama 36 (previous McCain 66, Obama 33)
c) White 60, Hispanic 29 (29.49), Black 7, Asian 3
d) In order to maximize McCain votes in TX-27, you have to split Corpus Christi and San Patricio - there's basically no way around it.  The McCain % in TX-14 is never the problem, since all of Brazoria County is included in TX-14 this time, but the Hispanic % is a bit high for my tastes.  Still pretty compact.

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TX-14a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Paul
b) McCain 64, Obama 35 (previous McCain 66, Obama 33)
c) White 60, Hispanic 29 (29.47), Black 7, Asian 3
d) The Odessa-Midland-Laredo TX-23 pushes everything further east to get under 29.50% Hispanic.

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TX-14b (Odessa only, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Paul
b) McCain 64, Obama 35 (previous McCain 66, Obama 33)
c) White 60, Hispanic 29 (29.48), Black 8, Asian 3
d) Now things get ugly as the necessary expansion of TX-27 east to pick up white areas gathers steam.

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TX-14c (Odessa + Midland), TX-27 = 60%)
a) Paul
b) McCain 64, Obama 36 (previous McCain 66, Obama 33)
c) White 58, Hispanic 31 (30.90), Black 7, Asian 3
d) When I realized that I'd have to make major changes to the Houston suburbs to get it down to 29.50% Hispanic, I stopped.  It can be done, however.

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TX-15 (Odessa only)
a) Hinojosa
b) Obama 70, McCain 29 (previous Obama 60, McCain 40)
c) Hispanic 88, White 11, Asian 1
d) Not that bad really.  Most of the population is Hidalgo County and Hinojosa's home is here too.  Brownsville is included.  Not Harlingen - for rather obvious reasons (it has whites).

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TX-15a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Hinojosa
b) Obama 70, McCain 29 (previous Obama 60, McCain 40)
c) Hispanic 88, White 11, Asian 1
d) Changes are cosmetic.

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TX-15b (Odessa only, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Hinojosa
b) Obama 71, McCain 28 (previous Obama 60, McCain 40)
c) Hispanic 89, White 10, Asian 1
d) Not much change. Yawn.

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TX-15c (Odessa + Midland, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Hinojosa
b) Obama 72, McCain 27 (previous Obama 60, McCain 40)
c) Hispanic 90, White 9, Asian 1
d) No changes worth mentioning.

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TX-16
a) Reyes
b) Obama 65, McCain 34 (previous Obama 66, McCain 34)
c) Hispanic 77, White 18, Black 3, Asian 2, Other 1
d) Basically the same as before.  There is really no reason to play around with El Paso, except at the margins, unless you want to do something like Martin did.

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TX-17 (Odessa only)
a) Flores
b) McCain 65, Obama 34 (previous McCain 67, Obama 32)
c) White 68, Hispanic 16, Black 13, Asian 3
d) This complete redesign of TX-17 takes advantage of Flores' base to swipe a bit of Austin.  The northern half of Montgomery County is added for good measure, but the heart of the CD will be Bryan-College Station.

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TX-17a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Flores
b) McCain 64, Obama 34 (previous McCain 67, Obama 32)
c) White 67, Hispanic 17, Black 13, Asian 3
d) Changes are cosmetic to pick up a few more Hispanics from TX-21.

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TX-17b (Odessa only, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Flores
b) McCain 64, Obama 35 (previous McCain 67, Obama 32)
c) White 66, Hispanic 18, Black 13, Asian 3
d) The requirements of TX-14 make this iteration a bit ugly.  Kinda looks like a misshapened bat.

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TX-17c (Odessa + Midland, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Flores
b) McCain 64, Obama 35 (previous McCain 67, Obama 32)
c) White 67, Hispanic 17, Black 13, Asian 3
d) Only cosmetic changes here.  Major changes would have been required to get TX-14 down to 29.50%, which I didn't do.

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TX-18
a) Lee
b) Obama 84, McCain 15 (previous Obama 77, McCain 22)
c) Black 53, Hispanic 26, White 16, Asian 4, Other 1
d) This is about as black as I can make the annoying b!tch's CD without making it very ugly.

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TX-19 & TX=19b (Odessa only)
a) Neugebauer
b) McCain 73, Obama 26 (previous McCain 72, Obama 27)
c) White 64, Hispanic 28, Black 6, Asian 2
d) So I decided to do something which will never happen in real life - the Amarillo and Lubbock CD!

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TX-19a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Neugebauer
b) McCain 73, Obama 26 (previous McCain 72, Obama 27)
c) White 64, Hispanic 28, Black 6, Asian 2
d) The change here is a county in the south of the CD or something.  No big deal.

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TX-20
a) Gonzalez
b) Obama 68, McCain 31 (previous Obama 63, McCain 36)
c) Hispanic 68, White 19, Black 10, Asian 2, Other 1
d) TX-20 picks up a chunk of the former TX-23 areas, as required.

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TX-21 (Odessa only)
a) Smith
b) McCain 61 (60.76), Obama 38 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 61, Hispanic 29 (29.46), Black 7, Asian 3
d) TX-21 is radically altered in these two maps.  Instead of picking up Austin and German Texas, this version goes southeast to pick up Victoria.  Which actually works quite nicely, as the San Antonio suburbs will still control.

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TX-21a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Smith
b) McCain 61 (60.78), Obama 38 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 60, Hispanic 29 (29.48), Black 7, Asian 3
d) Changes are cosmetic.

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TX-21b (Odessa only, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Smith
b) McCain 61 (60.87), Obama 38 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 61, Hispanic 29 (29.47), Black 7, Asian 3
d) Extends "more literally" to the southeast, but the actual changes really don't mean much.

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TX-21c (Odessa + Midland, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Smith
b) McCain 61 (60.97), Obama 38 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 60, Hispanic 29 (29.45), Black 7, Asian 3
d) Changes are still cosmetic, actually.

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TX-22 (Odessa only)
a) Olson
b) McCain 61 (60.52), Obama 38 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 62, Hispanic 19, Asian 11, Black 9
d) A nicely compact CD which takes in all of Fort Bend not in TX-9 and some west Houston suburbs.  Of all of the GOP CDs, this one would worry me the most in the future, but not *that* much.

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TX-22a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Olson
b) McCain 60 (60.10), Obama 39 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 62, Hispanic 19, Asian 11, Black 9
d) The changes address problems in TX-14, but are still cosmetic.

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TX-22b (Odessa only, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Olson
b) McCain 60 (60.18), Obama 39 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 62, Hispanic 19, Asian 11, Black 9
d) Changes are cosmetic.

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TX-22c (Odessa + Midland, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Olson
b) McCain 60 (60.00), Obama 39 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 62, Hispanic 19, Asian 11, Black 9
d) Keeps getting uglier, but the changes really aren't important.

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TX-23 (Odessa only)
a) Open
b) McCain 55 (55.26), Obama 44 (previous Obama 51, McCain 48)
c) Hispanic 63 (63.20), White 33, Black 3, Asian 1
d) In the Odessa-only version, TX-23 picks up a number of rural counties north of Odessa (almost all the way to Lubbock) along the border, and then goes east at Del Rio to pick up some of the inner San Antonio Hispanic precincts.  I consider this version a safer VRA test b/c Odessa and San Antonio have been combined in past CDs and are presently combined in Senate District 19.  Going north into west Texas will probably be complained about, but there are Hispanics here (of course, they vote more GOP than the ones in Maverick County, but let the challenge occur).  I do not, however, consider this a safer GOP hold than version 2 because 1) there will be no incumbent; 2) Odessa is not growing (unlike Midland or Laredo); 3) the Dems have a potential very dangerous candidate in Pete Gallego in the Trans-Pecos, who represents a lot of the *swing* area of this CD (his state Rep seat is entirely included - note that I don't include Uresti in this description, as he would need much more of Hispanic Bexar to win).

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TX-23a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Conaway
b) McCain 55 (54.83), Obama 44 (previous Obama 51, McCain 48)
c) Hispanic 63 (63.04), White 32, Black 3, Asian 1
d) In this version, all of San Antonio, strongly GOP Uvalde and Medina County is moved to TX-28 and TX-36 in exchange for Midland, Maverick County and a little over half of Webb.  Thus, this becomes a much more Hispanic version of the original DeLay-mander.  The problem is that you have to convince Conaway to take a potential problem seat - although Odessa and Midland accounts for about a fourth of the population and about a third of the votes.  Cuellar will probably take the safe road - and run in the southern Webb seat.  Of course, I view this one as more VRA problematic.  You can get it down to 60% and avoid the Webb split, but I didn't make that one.

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TX-24
a) Marchant
b) McCain 62, Obama 37 (McCain 55, Obama 44)
c) White 72, Hispanic 13, Asian 8, Black 6
d) A nice compact DFW CD that swings west into GOP Tarrant County territory.  Removed most of the rest of the CD into new TX-33.

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TX-25
a) Doggett
b) Obama 74, McCain 24 (previous Obama 59, McCain 40)
c) White 47, Hispanic 34, Black 12, Asian 6
d) Packed every Austin Democrat into this CD as I thought I could.

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TX-26
a) Burgess
b) McCain 64, Obama 35 (previous McCain 58, Obama 41)
c) White 77, Hispanic 12, Asian 5, Black 5
d) This DFW CD snakes around a little bit, but is still basically Denton and Tarrant County-based.  Getting rid of minority precincts makes it even more GOP, as expected.

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TX-27 (Odessa only)
a) Farenthold
b) McCain 52 (52.07), Obama 47 (previous Obama 53, McCain 46)
c) Hispanic 63 (63.18), White 33, Asian 2, Black 2
d) I combed through literally every precinct in Hidalgo and Cameron counties looking for the best Hispanic-GOP ratios, and this is the best I could do, after recognizing that getting to Brownsville is not worth it.  And then I had to do the same for Nueces, splitting the thing in two.  And this is still about the best I can do.  Hey, it's still a lot better than Obama 53, McCain 46.

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TX-27a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Farenthold
b) McCain 52 (52.18), Obama 47 (previous Obama 53, McCain 46)
c) Hispanic 63 (63.23), White 32, Asian 2, Black 2
d) Very similar, except moved to the east because of TX-28.  I also think my division is slightly better this time (by hundredths of percentage points, I know, but still...)

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TX-27b (Odessa only, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Farenthold
b) McCain 54 (54.17), Obama 45 (previous Obama 53, McCain 46)
c) Hispanic 60 (60.27), White 36, Asian 2, Black 2
d) Now it extends further to the east to take in some more white precincts.  Yawn.  Percentage is up to 54%, but that's about the best you can do.

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TX-27c (Odessa + Midland, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Farenthold
b) McCain 54 (53.88), Obama 45 (previous Obama 53, McCain 46)
c) Hispanic 60 (60.15), White 35, Asian 2, Black 2
d) Last iteration of this CD looks the cleanest, actually.

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TX-28 (Odessa only)
a) Cuellar
b) Obama 74, McCain 25 (previous Obama 56, McCain 44)
c) Hispanic 93, White 6, Black 1
d) This version of TX-28 looks rather clean, actually.  A nice border CD, and also much safer than before, btw.

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TX-28a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Cuellar
b) Obama 72, McCain 28 (previous Obama 56, McCain 44)
c) Hispanic 89, White 9, Asian 1, Black 1
d) Lots of good visual imagery here.  Consider this the son of DeLay-mander, as half of Webb County extends north to take in a number of Bexar County barrio precincts (but not enough for Ciro to win).

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TX-28b (Odessa only, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Cuellar
b) Obama 74, McCain 26 (previous Obama 56, McCain 44)
c) Hispanic 92, White 7, Asian 1
d) Basically the same as original, with little changes to fit the needs of TX-27.

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TX-28c (Odessa + Midland, TX-27 = 60%)
a) Cuellar
b) Obama 71, McCain 28 (previous Obama 56, McCain 44)
c) Hispanic 89, White 10, Asian 1, Black 1
d) Same as original, with changes for TX-27's sake.

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TX-29
a) Green
b) Obama 68, McCain 32 (Obama 62, McCain 38)
c) Hispanic 67, White 18, Black 12, Asian 3
d) Not really much different than before, except more Democratic.

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TX-30
a) Johnson
b) Obama 82, McCain 17 (previous Obama 82, McCain 18)
c) Black 51, White 25, Hispanic 20, Asian 3
d) Now extends to reach the blacks in Tarrant County.  Also now majority-black.

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TX-31
a) Carter
b) McCain 60 (60.01), Obama 39 (previous McCain 58, Obama 42)
c) White 74, Hispanic 15, Black 7, Asian 3
d) Not really much different than before, except Killeen and Fort Hood (and all points north are removed) in exchange for a couple of counties to the south.  Williamson County remains in full here, it's kind of hard to separate Carter from it without hurting him (since he lives in Round Rock).

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TX-32
a) Sessions
b) McCain 60 (60.07), Obama 39 (previous McCain 53, Obama 46)
c) White 71, Hispanic 16, Asian 6, Black 6
d) Getting rid of the Hispanic precincts does wonders to the numbers.  Also adding half of Collin County, half of Grayson County and some of Denton works wonders as well.

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TX-33
a) None
b) Obama 69, McCain 30
c) Hispanic 63 (63.16), White 21, Black 13, Asian 3
d) What an ugly looking strip of Hispanic minority-majority land.

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TX-34
a) None
b) McCain 67, Obama 32
c) White 71, Black 16, Hispanic 11, Asian 2
d) The heart of Democratic Waco, with Nacogdoches and Lufkin included.  Let's see Chet Edwards make a comeback here!

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TX-35
a) None
b) McCain 64, Obama 36
c) White 67, Hispanic 18, Black 10, Asian 5
d) Poe may be here, he may be in TX-2, whichever...  Kingwood plus Pasadena suburbs plus all of the parts of Galveston County where white people from Houston will probably head = safe GOP.

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TX-36 (Odessa only)
a) Canseco
b) McCain 60 (60.05), Obama 39
c) White 66, Hispanic 27, Asian 3, Black 3
d) NW San Antonio plus German Texas and the more Republican parts of Hays County (well, it does include Texas State, so not exactly).  This is where Canseco resides (I'm pretty sure), so all he has to fear is an Anglo.  I made this a real San Antonio-centered CD to eliminate that possibility as much as possible while keeping the CD safe GOP.

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TX-36a (Odessa + Midland)
a) Canseco
b) McCain 60 (60.10), Obama 39
c) White 65, Hispanic 28, Asian 3, Black 3
d) Replace German Texas for GOP Medina and Uvalde County.  Yawn.

I'll do that - tomorrow.  It will also require more like five to ten maps, not two.  :)

OK, but I suggest that you darken the colors by reducing the opacity level. Color choices for each CD are also important. But then you do have an artistic side I know.  You probably are a closet metrosexual. :P

So even this supposed uber-gerrymander creates a new Hispanic majority seat? Not that I'm surprised though.

My artistic side is completely musical and theatrical.  I have below zero visual sense though, really.  I go to the museum, but I can barely draw stick figures.  If you want to redesign the thing, feel free.

And I'm about as far from a metrosexual as possible.  As has been noted by many friends on many occasions.  :P

You basically have to create one new Hispanic seat in Dallas - some GOP seats will be far too marginal without it.  You can create another San Antonio-Austin one to f-ck Doggett, but it's not necessary.  More than that is probably not going to be needed - I don't think Al Green's seat needs to be Hispanic-majority, and I don't think it can be anyway.

Let's face it - the previous map was a 21-10 GOP gerrymander with one marginal (TX-23).  GOPers wouldn't have considered Ortiz marginal in prior years.  The one the courts struck down was meant to be 22-10 GOP.

I don't really have to see the new Census numbers to know that 24 GOP seats can be created with almost any halfway competent gerrymander - and they can be ultra-safe too.  The problem is after that with the VRA.  It's nearly impossible to get it to 8 DEM seats under the VRA without having the courts strike down your map and I don't think trying to keep them to 9 seats will work either - playing with South Texas is rather problematic, you need decent margins, it's not really worth it under 52% McCain. 

So you pack ten Dems (the 9 already there, plus the new Dallas seat) and create the two most favorable Hispanic-majority seats you can (since you already hold two of them) for TX-23 and TX-27.  This is what is done above.

I mean I kind of figured that, but it results in the new seats being 3-1 GOP, which is only a +2. Then again shoring up Farenthold and making a Rodriguez comeback impossible might count as two more seats.

I just don't think the Texas GOP can make all four new seats GOP with the VRA and all.  You basically have to shore up Farenthold (South Texas seats tend to act 2-4 points Dem PVI than they say, and I assume his seat is 2008 iteration only (ignoring 2004), meaning R/D+0, basically).  And I can't see how they think Canseco's seat will give you the "right" result every time.  It has to be majority Hispanic, and adding more Bexar is not going to up the percentage as much as you like - which is why the radical rethink.  Plus, the majority Hispanic CD in Dallas fixes a lot of problems for the next decade, which is why it'll be done.

I have to think that the Texas GOP basically views Farenthold's seat as a gift, but always thought that Canseco's seat should have been theirs.  Therefore, since the prior map is basically drawn as a 22-10 gerrymander with a lucky bounce (Farenthold), a 26-10 gerrymander should be viewed as a likely end game and not a negative.  But who knows.

Changes in election precincts and polling places are a change in voting procedure which must be precleared under Section 5 of the VRA.  That means you have to hire very expensive lawyers to justify the change.

Texas election law requires that election precincts not cross, congressional district, legislative district, SBOE district, commissioner precinct, justice of the peace precinct boundaries, and council districts in large cities.

The rule about commissioner precincts is why every county in Texas, even Loving, has at least 4 election precincts.  After the 1990s redistricting, the number of precincts in Harris County roughly doubled, because the congressional and the two legislative redistricting were done independently using the census geography which only shows number of people and race, and not whether a boundary makes sense.  There were precincts with 5 voters because where one district line zigged another zagged.  The Comical would do interviews with election judges in their carport which served as the polling place, and they would say that they had voted when the polls opened, and their neighbor Joe would come over after work, and the other voter had moved.

Since the 1990s redistricting was based on race, it is likely that any area on one side of a line had a different racial makeup than those on the other side.  So if you had a nice rectangular precinct on one side of the road, and another on the other side that was split based on race, you won't want to explain to the USDOJ why you took this nice rectangular precinct on one side of the road and merged it with this odd shaped finger that happened to be 70% minority.  You would simply split the other precinct to conform to the legislatively mandated district lines.

One reasons that the the 1990s lines were so irregular was that the lines had been drawn to pick up apartment complexes for inclusion in the Ben Reyes or Craig Washington districts, and to separate them from the single family homes in the Bill Archer district.  Because Houston doesn't have zoning, there can be apartments in the the middle of single-family residential, and these were connected in an attempt to include the fewest houses.

After the most egregious districts (congressional and senate) were overturned, there was the possibility of merging some precincts back together, and that was done in some cases.  The number of precincts in Harris County is much less than the peak.  It went from around 666 to 1300, and now is somewhere around 850.  The reason that Harris County precinct numbers don't make any sense is that when precincts are merged, the highest number is retired.  And then when they need a new one, they will just take the lowest available.

During the 2000s redistricting, an effort was made to follow existing election precinct boundaries.  While this tended not to make matters worse, it didn't necessarily improve things, because some precinct boundaries are fossilized remains of the 1990s racial divisions.

Currently, elections precincts are limited to a maximum of 5000 voters.  In the past, this maximum this number based on the size of the county.  Montgomery County had to redo most their election precincts when their population reached a certain threshold.  This maximum may not be effectively as large as it used to be, because of it become harder to purge registration lists.

this is why I don't like what Martin Frost, Tom DeLay or even Sam Spade did to the maps. What they're doing is basically making apartheid districts. It Frost's case it was uber white districts and in Spade and DeLay's case it is uber Hispanic and black districts.

If you want to see congressional districts that are as close as possible to what they are now, come and see my new districts on this website:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/1/17/163956/012

I see you went with something close to my "butt-ugly" version for minority districts in DFW.

Are VAP/Citizen VAP problems going to be as dire in the Houston/DFW districts as they are in South Texas?

I always figured part of the problem was that South Texas was full of illegals and thus Citizen VAP is going to be proportionately lower compared to the urban cities, which should have more citizens.

If so, I figure you might as well rebundle 9 and 18 and get yourself a 'free' hispanic district.

In apologies for my Demmymander, here's "Civic Exercise" Texas, ie something similar to what a redistricting commission might draw if it existed (and given the recent Florida and California initiatives, who knows what the future has in store on that front?) Except they'd do a much better job at dividing Houston Blacks from Houston Hispanics, and maybe the Lubbock-Amarillo thing (why is that "never going to happen in real life", Sam?) Oh, and they'd baulk at the donut I drew around San Antonio, but it was the most reasonable thing to do with the territory I had left.

This has - 8 Hispanic seats (3 South Texas, 2 San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, El Paso), two of them not entirely unwinnable for Republicans (Farenthold's and one in San Antonio), 2 Black seats (Houston and Dallas), 3 White Democrats (2 Austin and Fort Worth) and one coalition seat in Houston that it's really hard to tell who'll win it except that they'll be a Democrat.
Oh, also one seat where, had it existed last decade, Nick Lampson would presumably have lost in 2010 but definitely not before, and one marginal McCain seat in Dallas that demographic change will do in before the decade's out.

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CD1 (blue) Tyler, Marshall, Longview, Nacogdoches
70 - 9 - 19 (format is white - hispanic - black where over 5 - asian where over 5)
69-30 McCain
Gohmert

CD2 (dark green) Texarkana to Dallas exurbs
78 - 8 - 12
69-30 McCain
Hall

CD3 (purple) North Tarrant to Denison
81 - 10
66-33 McCain (Denton town is ridiculously liberal btw, wtf is up with that?)
Open, right?

CD4 (red) most of Collin County
77 - 10 - 5 - 8
62-37 McCain
Sam Johnson (probably)

time for the DFW map

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CD5 (yellow) Northeast Tarrant, much of Denton Counties
79 - 10 - 5 - 5
65-35 McCain
Burgess

CD6 (bluegreen) Northwest Dallas County, bleeding over the line into Denton and Collin
56 - 22 - 15 - 7
52-47 McCain
Marchant

CD7 (grey) Northeast Dallas County
67 - 16 - 8 - 9
56-43 McCain
No idea whereabouts in Dallas Hensarling might be living but it could be here. Sessions also has to be living in Dallas someplace.

CD8 (lavender) South Dallas. That ugly spike is sort of unavoidable.
28 - 24 - 46
78-22 Obama
One would hope Eddie Johnson lives here

CD9 (teal) Central Dallas and points west
34 - 50 - 10 - 6
57-42 Obama
Open, or maybe Sessions

CD10 (pink) Fort Worth
48 - 28 - 20
56-43 Obama
Granger (?)

CD11 (light green) suburbs and exurbs southeast, south and west of Fort Worth
81 - 10 - 5
67-32 McCain
Open (unless Granger's home is here after all. She'd probably run here, anyways.)

CD12 (light blue) Wichita Falls, Abilene, and points south to the Colorado and north into the entire eastern half of the Panhandle (it's outside the picture, but it's the three eastern columns of counties except in the northernmost row, where it's only the easternmost county.)
78 - 15 - 5
76-23 McCain
Thornberry

CD13 (tan) Lubbock and Amarillo
63 - 28 - 6
73-26 McCain
Neugebauer

CD14 (golden brown) Killeen, Temple, Georgetown
68 - 15 - 13
59-39 McCain
Open

CD15 (orange) Waco and points northeast around Corsicana, including more genuinely suburban territory than I would have liked
72 - 14 -12
66-33 McCain
Barton

CD16 (green) Bryan, Huntsville, Lufkin
68 - 13 - 16
66-33 McCain
Flores

CD17 (slate) Beaumont/Port Arthur, Galveston/Texas City, Baytown
62 - 14 - 22
58-41 McCain
Open

CD18 (yellow) Montgomery County and some northeast Harris burbs
78 - 12 - 7
71-28 McCain
Brady, Poe (just about - he lives in Humble which is the westernmost area in the Harris portion here)

time for the Harris map

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CD19 (that faintly disgusting undefinable shade between green and brown) Northwest Harris County
66 - 18 - 9
64-35 McCain
*Probably* open

CD20 (pale pink) North Houston
18 - 46 - 32
76-24 Obama
Gene Green may or may not live here, I've no idea

CD21 (maroon) Centralish Houston
30 - 40 - 23
66-33 Obama
Jackson-Lee may or may not live here, I've no idea

CD22 (brown) West Houston Whiteyland
65 - 21 - 6 - 8
62-37 McCain
Culberson, I suppose?

CD23 (light teal) either side of the Harris-Fort Bend line
24 - 26 - 36 - 13. Wow at the Asian %age here. Yes, it's a coalition seat strictly speaking, not a Black seat.
70-29 Obama
Al Green

CD24 (purple) based around Pasadena
47 - 39 - 8 - 5
56-43 McCain
Open

CD25 (rosé) Brazoria, outer Fort Bend, suburban Galveston County
65 - 21 - 8 - 7
66-33 McCain
Paul, probably Olson (though he might be in Al Green's seat too)

CD26 (dark grey) a Coastal Bend seat based around Victoria, with all sorts of areas that don't quite belong thrown in around the edges
58 - 32 - 7
65-34 McCain
Open

CD27 (another tealish shade) North Austin, Round Rock
63 - 21 - 9 - 7
59-39 Obama
McCaul, Carter. Lol.

time for the San Antonio/Austin map

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CD28 (lavender) South Austin, San Marcos
57 - 31 - 7
62-36 Obama
Doggett

CD29 (another weird shade) a donut with two fillings. Suburban Bexar, White Flight Comal County, a lot of Hill Country
63 - 31
65-34 McCain
Open unless one of the San Antonio Republicans actually lives here. Smith should run here, anyways.

CD30 (red) East San Antonio
41 - 47 - 9
52-47 Obama
Smith supposedly lives in San Antonio, and so does Canseco. No idea where, but one wonders if Canseco might hold this one down.

CD31 (yellow) West San Antonio. Seeing how exactly two CDs fit within those ring roads, it'd be  criminal not to. Split it north-south instead and the map looks even nicer and the northern seat is marginally McCain, but also marginally majority white. Which wouldn't fly with a commission reading it's VRA caselaw, not with the southern seat next door quite packed with Hispanics.
27 - 65 - 5
59-39 Obama
Don't know which district Gonzalez lives in, either.

time for the South Texas map

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CD32 (orange) Corpus to Harlingen
27 - 69
54-45 Obama
Farenthold

CD33 (blue) Brownsville to McAllen
12 - 87
68-32 Obama
Hinojosa

CD34 (green) Mission to Del Rio
8 - 91
71-29 Obama
Cuellar

CD35 (purple) Permian, San Angelo, some Hill Country, Trans-Pecos even though it hurt to let it go
53 - 41
71 - 28 McCain
Conaway

CD36 (not shown) El Paso
18 - 77
65-34 Obama
Reyes

here's who i see in the 113th delegation

1. Gohmert
2.  Hall (if he doesn't croak)
3. Jane Nelson
4. Johnson
5. Burgess
6. Marchant
7. Sessions vs. Hensarling primary (Sessions winning)
8. EBJ
9. Rafael Anchia
10. Wendy Davis
11. Granger
12. Thornberry
13. Nawgubower
14. Dan Gattis maybe?
15. Barton
16. Flores
17. Craig Eiland maybe?
18. Brady
19. Poe
20. G. Green
21. SJL
22. Culberson
23. A. Green
24. jackson guy in the state senate
25. Olsen
26. not sure
27. Mark Strama
28.  Doggett
29. Smith
30. Canseco or Van de Putte
31. Gonzalez
32. Farenthold (if he keeps the seat)
33. Hinojosa
34. Cuellar
35. Conaway
36. Reyes

What would the UIL do?

When it was first possible to draw a Lubbock - Amarillo it would have been very tightly drawn, perhaps going down the New Mexico border to avoid Plainview, but leaving out Dalhart, or it could go further east, to cut down the population, but it would ended up being a donut.  Even now, while the Lubbock-Amarillo district looks neat, you have a huge area which you disguised by cutting off the map.

University of North Texas, Texas Womens University.  Also Denton is far enough north that it really isn't a suburban.   Because the Denton-Collin border is east of the Tarrant-Dallas border, the suburban growth is in the SE corner, and then you hit a lake so it isn't solid growth to Denton.  Suburban growth from Fort Worth is just barely lapping into Denton County.

Granger was mayor of Fort Worth.

The state highway between Galveston and Port Arthur was wiped out several decades ago and not replaced.  Your district looks OK simply because lower Galverton Bay is in Galveston County, and upper Galveston Bay is in Chambers.

Sam's Texas map version 1. Sam you seem to have a hanging precinct in South Texas. :P But I did that in PA, because to do otherwise meant going through a 90% Obama precinct or two to get to South Philly to append to PA-07 (a zone that was very sorely needed to append to PA-07), so I noted that a couple of precinct lines would simply have to be redrawn (so that the connection could be over the Philly airport runway, and a Gulf Oil tank farm)!

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Dallas
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Austin-San Antonio
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Houston
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South Texas
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Sam TX Map version 2 (change in CD's in San Antonio-Houston corridor from version 1)
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For some reason, it told me that it was contiguous, but I changed it in later versions when I saw it wasn't.  It's not a big deal - you can change things around Harlingen an the numbers are not particularly different.

does anyone know or remember in 1981 when they were redrawing the lines and there was controversy over the redrawing of the DFW Area.

I believe there was a plan to draw a CD 26 which would have been in south Dallas where pretty much every black precinct was packed in. The remaining parts of CD 24 and CD 5 would then absorb the area in CD 3. I believe there were people in the NAACP who wanted a district that would elect a black person, but there were blacks in the legislature, who although they were supportive of blacks in office, they placed the priorities of the democratic party first.

The controversy is seen in the 1988 election map. Dukakis won District 5 50-49 and District 24 52-47. The black areas of Dallas was split in half and added to suburban areas. District 24 took in Grand Prairie, Irving, Carrollton, Coppell and District 5 took in Mesquite. District 3, which bordered both districts to the north, gave Bush 74 percent as the democrats packed every WASP precinct into that district. 

In the federal district court trial on the 2003 district boundaries, the issue of the district boundaries in the Harlingen area were raised.  The plaintiffs claimed that these really weird boundaries (between 27 and 15) were drawn to cut out 15 Hispanic voters.  The State responded that they had simply followed the city limits, including fence lines of Harlingen.  For that reason, Torie's boundaries might be suspect since they ignored conventional redistricting practice of respecting city boundaries, especially if it appeared that the intent was done to deny Hispanics an equal opportunity to elect the candidate of their choice.

I kind of did a run over the numbers and came to these conclusions with regards to a really pretty looking map in a GOP gerrymander with the present numbers.


Really easy actually.  You get three GOP CDs with 60%+McCain (Culberson, Poe and new Congressman), two Dem CDs, one Hispanic majority and one black majority (Green and Lee) completely within Harris and one Dem CD that extends into Fort Bend County to pick up the rest of Houston and the black precincts around Missouri City.  Yawn.


This is the one problem county in a pretty Republican gerrymander.  You can't get the new Hispanic-majority CD into safe Hispanic-majority territory without pushing into Tarrant County (and TX-30 remains not black majority, but who cares).  You can create one Republican CD entirely within Dallas County, but the third CD would become pretty marginal.  If you say "screw the Hispanic district", then you can extend that third CD to another county to make it safe Republican.


One GOP CD in NE Tarrant County.  Easy.  Then you've got to make it look ugly.  Give the most severely Dem areas to a CD that extends out to the west and north (not Denton).  Create the other GOP CD from the leftovers.  If the Hispanic CD moves into Tarrant, your job becomes easier and you may not have to extend out to the counties to the west and north (not Denton)


Basically, you have Gonzalez and then you can draw Smith (and possibly Canseco) into a safe Republican seat, with the Bexar County excess Hispanics going into one of the other Hispanic-majority seats.


So you pack Doggett into Austin.  Yawn.  As I showed in the last map, if you push McCaul's seat west, instead of east, taking in San Angelo, you make it much more safe even though you take in all the other Travis precincts.  It makes a lot more sense to do this now that Flores holds TX-17 (you can draw his seat to take in a lot (if not all) of the former TX-10 rural areas.


Already did this.  Johnson's seat makes the most sense, of course.


Already did this - the excess goes into the Trans-Pecos area seat.


You can make Hinojosa's CD the entire county and spread it into Cameron to take precincts away from TX-27 to make it more Republican-friendly.  Not that difficult really.

What are exactly the "fence lines of Harlingen"?  The numbers don't make that big of a difference here in my book, so changes could be made to "respect that".

Go to  http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/redist.htm  And bring up District Viewer (the cursor target is off a bit, so point slightly above).

Select the congressional plan and select on cities, then turn off the congressional map checkbox.  Zoom in on Harlingen (sorry, no box zoom).  And if you notice carefully you see a long yellow spear almost reaching the river.  Turn the congressional map back on.

Texas has (had) pretty liberal annexation laws, where a city can basically say to an area, "you're now in the city".  You might remember when Houston under Bob Lanier annexed Kingwood.  And when NASA was being built at Clear Lake, there were like 13 cities trying to annex it.

So to try to provide some structure, cities were granted Extra Territorial Jurisdiction (ETJ) outside their city limits.  The distance outside your city limits that an ETJ extends, depends on the population of the city.  For Houston, it extends 5 miles.  Another city can not annex within an ETJ of another city, and new city may not be formed within the ETJ (without permission).

Cities used to be able to annex very narrow strips of land, less than 100 feet wide.  You could annex a long strip, and extend your ETJ, and then repeat.  Houston has some areas like that which extend almost to Waller and Tomball, and there is another that goes into the far NW corner of Harris County.  Those that reach out to Waller and Tomball have arms that spread out as if trying to surround those areas.  Those are fence lines, which are being used to fence out other cities.

Strip annexations like that are now illegal, but cities can still keep the existing ones, and annex off them.  Cities are now also required to provide services to an area when they annex it, within a few years.  So most cities only annex retail, offices, and industrial areas, since they bring in more revenue than they cost in services.  Residential areas are expensive - except in cases like Kingwood which already had city-level streets and utilities.  Something like 97% of retail establishments in Harris County are inside city limits, so that the cities can collect the sales taxes.

Back to Harlingen.  The boundary between CD 15 and 27 used to be on the Hidalgo-Cameron County line.  But let's say you want to draw a district between say McAllen and ummmm. how about Austin?  So you need a little bit more of Hidalgo County, and CD 15 needs some more population.  So you shift Harlingen into CD 15 and add some more of San Patricio to CD 27.

And just to keep Justice Kennedy and his never-ending quest for the judiciable political gerrymander standard, you respect the city limits of Harlingen.  When the district court had its trial, the plaintiffs tried to show that the irregularity in district boundaries was racially based, and the State could show that they were following city boundaries.

Interesting, read, jim. Those annexation laws are actually pretty strict compared to Georgia, though- cities can even annex roadways without annexing the property on either side. The western boundary of my hometown of Auburn is just a patchwork of territory randomly in and outside of city limits, with the city limits doing crazy things like travelling along a road, taking in a cow pasture to reach another road, then extending further along that one. There's an intersection where the town is to the southeast, but the only city territory is the northwest corner. On one smaller road out of town you pass five "Auburn City Limits" signs in about three miles.

And then there's Braselton, a small town along the interstate that extended it's city limits two miles down the highway to get tax revenue from the gas station at the next exit down, and (more importantly) have a longer stretch of interstate to catch speeders.

I'll end my off-topic tangent here, but such crazy things like you describe do happen pretty often.   

Wow Auburn has an ugly shape. It looks like a hideously gerrymandered congressional district. So Georgia is full of a sprawly mess and lets it get shaped ugly too.

Indeed. Here's a map for those keeping score at home:

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Also, just as an addendum to my earlier post, Braselton has since expanded to encompass the area between the two interstate exits in a normal fashion. Auburn is ridiculous, though.

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Pikers.  Alvin is the "A" in the upper center of the map.  It has two little arms extending along Texas 6 to the east and west, and legs along Texas 35 to the south.

Its fence line (1) extends almost the full length of the Brazoria-Galveston county line, (2) almost to the Gulf of Mexico, it then (3,4) comes back north through Brazoria county to keep the Lake Jackson cities out, and then heads west to (5) where it reaches the Brazos River and Fort Bend County.  It then follows the county line, north, east, and NNE, to (6) where it meets the Pearland fence line and heads east.  It is snipped off by Iowa Colony, but starts up again until it meets the Manvel fence line and heads south, end where it meets Iowa Colony again.

I'm guessing that this fence line is about 80 miles in length.

(7) Alvin has another fence line to its north that extends along the Brazoria-Galveston line west of Friendswood, heads west along the Pearland fence line, and then turns south along the Manvel fence line.

is there a VRA for white people? Cuz if there is I'm pretty sure this map would see lawsuits by the NAAWP.

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i had a plan that would be to protect all 32 incumbents, which I found difficult to do. I tried to protect Marchant by getting rid of everything south of I-30 and adding some wealthier areas of NE Tarrant County for a 62 percent McCain district. I protected Sessions by getting rid of Cockrell Hill and some mexican areas of Dallas and attaching it to some Dallas county portions of CD 3.

The best way to protect McCaul is to take out the most dem areas of Austin.
Under that plan the only area of Travis County left would be the Pflugerville area (not sure if he lives there). Despite it being a 58% McCain district, it is somewhat difficult to protect Pete Olsen. His district has 900,000 people, so it needed to shed a lot of precincts. I took out a lot of areas in Galveston and Harris counties out of the district, which made it look more compact. The issue for him is that those are the most republican parts of his district, and without them, it would be a 50-50 district for him.

It is rather easy to protect all incumbents not named Canseco and Farenthold, if you want to.  The creation of the Hispanic-majority CD in DFW allows you to get 60% McCain on all Dallas area CDs without the map looking too bad actually.  As for McCaul, I haven't figured out exactly where he lives in Austin, but the best way to protect him (oddly enough) is to go west, not east, which is made a heck of a lot easier now that Flores holds TX-17 (lives in Bryan-College Station).  That way, you can append Waco to some other CD, like Barton, for example and push Flores to take up McCaul rural areas.

With the strictures of the VRA, it's going to be hard to protect Doggett, if you want to protect Farenthold (as demonstrated earlier).  Otherwise, you'll probably be able to move the scale in favor of Canseco and Farenthold only a few points.  My idea of giving Canseco one of the new districts and redesigning TX-23 is also possible.  You can probably do the same thing with Farenthold, but it's more difficult to do it for both and still have enough Hispanic CDs.

one idea i had was to make a district entirely on the excess population of other districts. I made a district that took out all the excess population from Ralph Hall, Kay Granger, Sam Johnson, and Burgess district. It took in Western Grayson county and eastern cooke county, anna, frisco, mckinney, celina, melissa, prosper in collin county; the colony, krum, little elm, hackberry, sanger in denton county; all of wise county and most of Parker county.

It is an 82 percent white district. Someone like Phil King or Ken Paxton would run here and probably wouldn't have much trouble getting elected.

In actuality, because I had not yet done this, I stand corrected. 

You can give Canseco and Farenthold 60% McCain CDs (Canseco would fear Anglo GOP challenge, of course) and redesign TX23 and TX27 to be 63/64% Hispanic CDs with 55% McCain and 52% McCain totals respectively. 

TX23 remains similar to the Odessa map Torie detailed and TX27 takes the Brownsville portion of Cameron County (pushing the Harlingen part to TX-15, which is a little counterintuitive), pushes up north, bypasses Nueces, takes in San Patricio and centers the other half of the CD around Victoria.  Farenthold's new CD goes along the coast and then moves up to take Paul and McCaul old territories.

That means two of the four open CDs will be very marginal territory, but it may actually make more sense for the GOP, as Victoria (and the surrounding areas Hispanics) are a bit more reliable GOP voters down ballot.

Sam, have you been following the fight between Perry and Doggett over education funding? Do you think Perry might push the legislature to cut up his seat after this?

Not really.

Perry might do it.  It can be done - you either make it into a Hispanic-majority seat, he may still win anyway, or you draw him out of the district, but I don't know where exactly he lives in Austin.  The Hispanic-majority seat not pretty, but it can be done.  The only issue is that it makes creating Hispanic-majority seats where GOPers can win a bit more difficult in other parts of the state.

so who will represent the hispanic district in Dallas? I'm thinking someone like Rafael Anchia may represent him. He's fairly young and has been in the legislature for four terms. He is supposed to be an up and comer. Kind of reminds me of Raul Grijalva only less liberal.

Watch - you'll get a whitey there like Gene Green, although Gene had extremely favorable circumstances when he first ran.

So Torie sent me the exact whereabouts of Doggett, and my conclusion is that it's going to be very hard to f-ck him.  You can't draw him into a GOP district without having a really ugly looking claw, and even then you will include a lot of hard Dem territory to where it marginalizes the GOP area and will most likely be minority (which will break the justification).  Drawing the Hispanic minority-majority CD is also difficult in that you need to make sure you've got more San Antonio than Austin, which is difficult, almost impossible.

In short, it's probably not worth the effort.

He can move.  After the 2003 redistricting he rented an apartment in south Austin.  During the court trial, one of the remedy plans said that he didn't live in the new district, but it didn't matter since he didn't live in his old one either, and then one of the briefs noted that he did live in the district.

My first attempt with 2010 census data:

I'll do a writeup on it later, but I just want to get the images out there.

New districts are the orange one in DFW, the green district in Waco/rural Texas, the purple one in Arlington stretching south parallel to Barton's district, and the light blue one in Port Arthur/Beaumont. New hispanic districts in DFW and Houston.


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Yeah, I know the 2 DFW districts are not contiguous on Dave's app. Pretend I connected them via I-30 similar to IL-4.

This map gives up on the idea of knocking out Cuellar.

Cd-9 and CD-18 are also not contiguous and I don't know how they could be.

I haven't started posting any maps yet because I have to get the partisan figures for the big counties into an excel file in order to properly gerrymander (like Torie does).  :P

Probably point-continuity like in NC.

It's designed to be touch pointed.

Fair enough.

I think you could have one district use the Pierce Elevated while the other uses Main Street, or you use the tunnels.

I might add, though, that the purpose of touch pointing on that map is kind of limited. All it does is let you put all the Hispanics in CD-9 and create yourself a 'free' Hispanic majority district to make LULAC happy, and with any luck, get rid of Sheila Jackson Lee. It doesn't net the Pubbies any seats.

Al Green won't defeat Sheila in that CD-18, though I see how you're drawing him in, but he'll be toast.  Gene Green's residence would now be in CD-9, so CD-29 would be very open.  A lot of your proposed CD-29 is very idiosyncratic territory - you could get any type of race in control there, don't let the Hispanic numbers fool you.

You also won't like the partisan numbers on your proposed CD-7.  I also wonder on the partisan numbers of CD-9 and CD-29, they'll be Democratic enough, though.

Hmm, I approximated that CD-7 at 56% McCain or so; its a 59.8% Anglo district. The precincts are pretty carefully chosen. It might be a problem a few years from now, though.

CD-22 was actually my real concern given the massive shifts in Fort Bend.

The old Culberson CD was 58% McCain, so if that's the case, you've given him a weaker CD.

You're right, it is at about 56% McCain from what I can tell trying to replicate it.   However, it begs the question why you added all the Democrat-leaning territory in the western part of the district and gave the heavily-republican parts to the 8th?  I assume that district doesn't need any help.  Rearrange some lines around there and give some of the red/blue territory to  the 7th, and you can make it at least 59% McCain.

Also, your CD-22 is fine, it's almost 60% McCain.

I actually mapped it out; that Woodlands district was close to 70. Thanks, made some swaps. Both districts should be at or above 60 now. I put those Democratic areas in Flores's district since he dropped Waco up north.

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I think TX-7 could be safe Republican even with a lower McCain number, much like Torie's district in California. Obama won many high-income voters over McCain-Palin in 2008 that are simply not going to vote for a Democratic candidate for Congress and may not vote for Obama again in 2012.

You're probably right, of course, but there's no reason not to play it safe since the numbers can be made stronger without much hurt otherwise.

what's with Pete Sessions district losing 11,000 people. I'm guessing the district is going to pick up parts of Garland from CD 3.

Probably not--those precincts don't have the kind of numbers that he needs to get a safe district.  It'll probably shoot north towards Frisco and some of the other North-Dallas suburbs in the 4th and 26th that can be safely removed.

Wait, what is this "touch-pointed"? That doesn't make sense. Mathematically, you shouldn't be able to skip over the center point like that - if you could, then any noncontiguous district with two parts at opposite ends of a state could be made "contiguous" by an infinitely narrow point-wide connection with a Dedekind cut on either side.

Imagine Utah and New Mexico being in 1 district, and Arizona/Colorado being in a 2nd district.

It's already used in several places. NC-13 for example.

I think you are going to get different interpretation of whether this is legal in different states,  Just because it happened in North Carolina doesn't mean that it will work in Texas.

If you wanted to maintain literal contiguity you can start out with 36 concentric districts that are a millimeter thick around the outside perimeter of the state.   Pick out a set of discontiguous areas that are to comprise the outermost district.  Connect these with narrow channels 72 millimeters wide that run down the center of roads etc  Run the bundles of districts down the left side if the channel.  When you get to one of the areas that have people that will be in the district, run the bundle around the outside, and then come back down the right side the channel.  Repeat the same for each other district.

I'm struggling to think of an example other than that one in use currently.

You might be right at the Congressional level. I know for a fact that George Democrats used it in 2001 at the state legislative level.

Truthfully the only reason to do it is to achieve a different racial balance in CD-9.

Yeah, you're right about NC-13 and NC-6 in Greensboro - never noticed that before.

Still, already done doesn't mean legal; it just means never challenged on that basis, and I still maintain it ought not to be legal. Jimrtex's suggestions with millimeters are legalistic but coherent; with these X's, on the other hand, the district's width must be literally just a point, because any larger surface area at all would cut off the other district. And if you allow districts to have sections that don't extend at all in two dimensions then there is effectively no requirement of contiguity at all.

Something that I never thought about:

Is it possible to eliminate Gene Green's seat?

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The yellow and blue are 81/85% Obama dem packs. The grey district is Culbertson's and 58% McCain; the purple is a newly created 60% McCain district. The green incomplete district starts at Humble (Ted Poe's home) and would head towards Port Arthur.

The grey-green seat in eastern Harris is the new Gene Green seat, and is 60% Hispanic, 55% McCain per the old data. It is likely much more hispanic with the new data.

How is that eliminating Gene Green's seat? It's a purpose drawn Hispanic Dominated seat as is. Yeah, Green's white, but it's not been an issue except on his very first election in 1992.

He means flip it to a Republican seat.

And yes it is possible, but you'd probably run into a VRA challenge as a result.  By definition a district like that would have to basically contain a bunch of uber-Republican whites to out-vote the Hispanic majority, which I don't think is allowed.  Though you can certainly cut out the Black-heavy parts of the current district to get it down to basically swing while still Highly Hispanic.

You can actually do the same thing with the 27th and 23rd as well (a Laredo-Odessa/Midland District is like 67% Hispanic and 60% McCain), and possibly also with the 28th and the San Antonio suburbs.

GA-08 and GA-11 also had point contiguity before the Republicans did the mid-decade redistricting in 2005.

Yeah right, sorry. Overlooked that McCain percentage somehow.

That would be the general idea, yeah. The existing 15, 28 already contain a Hispanic majority in the south with some uber-Republican whites in the northern rural counties.

That map was drawn with the old census data, though, so the racial percentages are off. I'd expect it to be ~65% Hispanic now, although in a very low turnout area.

Yeah, it sounds easy to draw a couple Hispanic majority McCain CD's in Texas involving rural areas and not too much of the border. Is this mainly due to plenty of Hispanics not being citizens (or not turning out) or do some of these areas have more GOP Hispanic support?

It's a bit of both.  I've been recently going through the barrio precincts in San Antonio, and turnout in 2008 in most of these was around 20%-25% of VAP, at best.  Seriously.  Granted, there's a high percentage of non-citizens, but still...

Also, in the suburbs, you get plenty of middle-upper income areas which are much more likely to have Hispanics voting Republican.

It depends on where you're talking about.  West Texas has plenty of GOP-voting Hispanics, (the current TX-11 is almost 40% Hispanic, and it was George Bush's best District in the country), and they certainly exist in the rest of the state--they're just spread-in with the white voters so they're harder to detect.  The more concentrated Hispanics are in one place, the more Democrat they tend to be (since such areas are generally urban and poor).

So generally speaking, drawing McCain-Hispanic districts involves a combination of Hispanic-majority areas and precincts that Vote Democrat in depressed numbers and White-majority but still-substantially Hispanic Republican precincts to out-vote them.

In the example i gave above, you combine about 350,000 People in the Laredo and Eagle Pass areas that are like 95% Hispanic and 70% Democrat with about 350,000 People in the Odessa and Midland Areas that are like 35% Hispanic and 80% Republican (and who vote more) to get a district that is 65% Hispanic but also solidly Republican.

You can also do this with the Gulf Coast areas (which are Solidly Republican with a substantial Hispanic Population) and South Texas to give Farenthold a solid R district that's Hispanic-majority.

However in the large cities this breaks down a bit--particularly because you start getting White Liberals and Blacks in the mix, both of which drag down the Hispanic percentage and the McCain percentage, so it becomes a more ugly fine-picking of precincts.  It's generally still possible to get 55% McCain Districts in Houston and San Antonio, and perhaps even Dallas (but I haven't got one there yet).

Here is a map that both parties would probably agree on. It gives the possibility of republicans having a 27-9 delegation, but it also has the opportunity for the possibility of an 18-18 split by the end of the decade.

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This is the Houston Area.

Green district is the 2nd District. This takes is the same although it sheds its western appendage and takes in some areas from CD 22. This district is 55.9% White and McCain probably got in the high 50s or low 60s here. Ted Poe is the incumbent in another safe GOP seat.

Silver district is the 7th District. This district is more or less the same as it was before. The district adds a few areas from CD 2 and loses some of the eastern areas of the district, but politically it is probably the same at a 58 or 59 percent McCain District. The district is 55.2% White. Safe Republican

purplish district district is 8th District. This district is more similar to what it looked like before the DeLay gerrymander. This district is 64% White and could be the most republican suburban district in the country as McCain probably got around 71 percent here. Kevin Brady of course is safe here.

Light blue district is District 9. This district is more or less the same give or take some precincts. This district is 43.2% Hispanic, 34.7% Black, 10.9% White, 9.8% Asian, 1.3% Other, and 1% Native American. Obama probably got in the mid-high 70s here. Al Green is safe here.

Yellow District is District 18. Now a more compact looking district, this is now Hispanic plurality at 42.8%. Blacks are 30.5% and Whites are 20.6%. This district is 4.9% Asian, 1.2% Other and .2% Native American. Obama probably got in the mid 70s here. Sheila Jackson Lee, despite being gaffe prone, will be fine here.

Dark brown district is District 22. This district is similar although it sheds a lot of Harris county precincts. This district is 41.2% White, 25.7% Hispanic, 16% Black, 15% Asian, 1.9% other, and .2% Native American. This is probably an R+10 district. Considering Olsen defeated an incumbent in an otherwise good year for democrats, this is a safe GOP district.

Gray district is District 29. This is a 72.2% Hispanic district where Obama probably got in the low to mid 60s. Gene Green is safe in this district.

Dark blue district is District 33. This is a 46.3% White, 29.8% Hispanic, 13.8% Black, 8.1% Asian, 1.8% Other, and .2% Native American district. It basically takes in the fast growing areas of Fort Bend and Harris counties as well as Waller and Wharton counties. McCain probably got in the low 60s here. Dan Patrick or Glenn Hegar, both state senators, may run here.

I'll be back with more later

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This is the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex.

The light purple district in the top right is the 3rd District. This district is similar to the old CD 3 except it takes out Allen, Frisco, and McKinney and adds in some of north Dallas and Richardson. This district is 49.2% White, 24.1% Hispanic, 12.5% Asian, 11.9% Black, 3% Native American, and 2% Other. McCain probably got in the mid 50s in this district. Sam Johnson is the incumbent here. Safe GOP as long as he is there, and lean/likely GOP to whoever succeeds him when he retires (he was born in 1930)

The red district is District 4. This district takes the fast growing exurbs of the metroplex. It takes in all of Jodi Laubenberg and Ken Paxton’s districts as well as some areas of Denton County and I took in a precinct in Grayson county to get it to the magical 698,000 number. This district is 65.3% White and McCain probably got around 2/3 of the vote here. Ralph Hall is the incumbent here but he will be 89 in 2012 and the above mentioned members of the legislature may succeed him (both have 100 ratings from Texans for Fiscal Responsibility).

The yellow district is District 5. Similar to before although it does add in more rural areas previously from CD 6. This district is 54.8% White and McCain most likely got in the high 50s or low 60s here. Jeb Hensarling is safe in this district.

The light blue district on the left side is District 12. This district is 47% White, 34% Hispanic, 15.1% Black, 2.2% Asian, 1.3% other, and .4% Native American. This district sheds the northwestern part of Tarrant County and takes in some black areas from the old 26th district, but Granger should be safe as the district still contains the cracker counties of Parker and Wise. Kay Granger is the sanest out of all the Texas Republicans so I’m fine with her representing this district. McCain probably got in the mid to high 50s here.

Dark purple district in Tarrant County is District 24. This district basically takes in areas of the old 24th, old 26th, and the Tarrant portion of the 6th district. State Senator Chris Harris may run here. I’m guessing this would be an R+8 district. This is still majority white at 51.4%.

Silver District is District 26. Sheds a lot of Denton county area and takes in the northern part of the old 24th District. Kenny Marchant would face Michael Burgess in a primary here. This district is 49.9% White, 28.1% Hispanic, 10.5% Black, 9% Asian, 2.1% other, and .4% Native American. I’m guessing this is an R+12 or R+13 district.

Pink District is District 30. This is a 42.1% Black, 35.1% Hispanic, 19.5% White, 1.8% Asian, 1.2% Other, .3% Native American District. This is probably the most democratic district in Texas as Obama probably got in the high 70s low 80s here. Eddie Bernice Johnson is the incumbent here.

Orange district in Dallas County is District 32. This is Similar to the old 32nd although it loses Richardson/North Dallas and takes in some areas from old CD 5. This is a 43% Hispanic, 41.2% White, 10% Black, 4.2% Asian, 1.3% Other, .3% Native American District. McCain probably got in the low 50s here. Pete Sessions is the incumbent here. He should hold the district in 2012, but in the long term he needs to reposition himself as more of an Olympia Snowe type republican or else he may end up in the same situation Bob Dornan did 15 years ago.

Light orange district is District 36. This takes in a lot of fast growth areas in northern Tarrant County and parts of Denton County. It also adds a precinct from Cooke County to get to the magical 698,000 number. McCain probably got around 65 percent here. Jane Nelson, a high-ranking veteran in the state senate, may run in this 71.5% White district.

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This is Bexar County.

Pink District is District 20. This Remains a Central San Antonio district. This is a 71.8% Hispanic district and Obama probably got around 65 percent here. Safe DEM.

Dark Brown District is District 21. . This district removes a lot of German Hill country area and adds more precincts from CD 23 in Bexar County. This district has become more Bexar based then what it was in the 1990s when it took in San Angelo and stretched all the way out to Midland/Odessa. This district is 49.7% White, 36.1% Hispanic, 8.5% Black, 3.5% Asian, .3% Native American, and 1.9% Other. McCain probably got around 55-56% here. Lamar Smith is safe here considering his seniority.

Light blue District is District 23. This is pretty similar to the previous 23rd District. I’m surprised the Hispanic % is 77.7%. Of course Canseco is Hispanic and that helps. Obama probably won this district, but by less than 5 points. This is Canseco’s test to prove that 2010 wasn’t a fluke.

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This is Austin.

Light green district is District 27. Not to be confused with the old 27th district, this is similar to the old 25th District although it sheds a lot of rural areas to the east. Obama probably got around 65 percent here which is impressive considering that this is a 52.4% White district. This is a safe district for Doggett.

Purple district is District 17. This has nothing in common with the old 17th except that it keeps the Bryan/College Station area. It then takes in some rural territory from CD 10 as well as the Travis County portion of it. Michael McCaul and Bill Flores would face off in a primary here. This is a 53.7% White district. McCain probably got in the low to mid 50s here. Likely republican for the time being, although it may flip by the end of the decade.

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This is eastern Texas.

Dark blue district is District 1. This is centered around the eastern cities of Tyler, Longview, Marshall, and Texarkana. This is a 66.4% White District and McCain probably got in the mid to high 60s here. Louie Gohmert is the incumbent in this safe republican district.

Pink district is the 25th district. Not to be confused with the old 25th District, this district is now located in eastern Texas. Kind of reminds me of what Charlie Wilson’s district used to look like. Bill Clinton probably won this district, but McCain easily got over 60 percent here. State Rep. Wayne Christian may run here. This is a 66.3% White district.

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This is the southern and gulf coast part of the state.

The pink district is the 10th District. This district was formerly the 28th district and has been renamed. It is similar to the old 28th except that the northern (read Republican) areas around Seguin have been taken off. Obama probably got in the low 60s here. This district is 89.8% Hispanic. Henry Cuellar survived 2010 in a harder district, so he is safe.

The puke colored district is District 14. This district is similar to the old 14th except that it sheds the Fort Bend County area and veers north to take in some areas that used to be in CD 25. This is a 58% White district. McCain probably got in the low to mid 60s here. Ron Paul is safe here.

Orange District is District 15. Similar to the old 15th except that it sheds some of the cracker counties to the north. Obama probably got in the low to mid 60s here. In a 88.9% Hispanic district, Hinojosa is safe.

Lavender district on the southern coast is District 28. This is basically the old 27th District renamed the 28th. This is a 71.8% Hispanic district. Obama probably got in the low 50s here. This is a test for Blake Farenthold to prove that 2010 wasn’t a fluke.

Green District is District 34. This is a 57% White District that takes in some random areas from CD 21, CD 25, CD 15, and CD 28. McCain probably got in the low 60s here. Veteran State Rep. Harvey Hilderbran may run here.

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This is the southwestern tip of the state. The green district in the far left corner is District 16. Pretty much the same although it veers out to take in Pecos to get to the magical 698 as the precincts in eastern El Paso county have too many people. This is an 80.1% Hispanic district and Obama probably got around 65% Here. Safe Democratic district for Reyes.

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This is Central Texas.

Blue Greenish district is District 6. Smoky Joe loses the entire Tarrant portion of his district. This is a 67.4% White district and McCain probably got in the mid to high 60s here. Barton is even more safe in this district, and its not like he was vulnerable in his previous district either. This also squashes any possibility of a Chet Edwards comeback.

Tan District is District 31. Another Central Texas district with Williamson and Bell counties making up most of the population. Probably an R+14 district. John Carter is safe in this 64.7% White district.

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This is a statewide view. Some districts I missed:

11th District (Light Green). This is similar to the old 11th, only it sheds some areas to the west and adds in some areas from the 31st (that ironically was in the Chet Edwards 11th district before the delay gerrymander). This district is 58.8% White and McCain probably got in the low 70s here. This is a safe district for Conaway.

13th District (Tan). This is now a true panhandle district. This is similar to what the 18th district used to look like, before the district was moved to Houston in 1972. The district is surprisingly only 56.7% White, but don’t let that fool you. This is easily one of the most republican districts in the country and McCain probably got in the low to mid 70s here. Thornberry of course is safe here.

19th District (puke green). This is similar to the old 19th district, except that it takes in the western part of CD 11. This is a 58.4% White district. McCain probably got in the low 70s here. Neugebauer (Naw-guh-bower) is safe here.

35th District (purple). This is a “Red River” District. It also gets the price for the whitest district at 74.4% White. McCain probably got in the high 60s or low 70s here. State Senator Craig Estes may run here.

Here is the final Harris County product. Bust-a-gene-green.

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These districts are exactly at population per the 2010 census. Removing the blacks and putting whites in TX-29 does wonders for the results. 60% VAP on the TX-29 here should be adequate as that is just about where it was at the start of the decade.

The current TX-18 actually holds a lot of Republican territory, and the current TX-9 holds some too. It's nice to pluck that out to pick up TX-29's worst precincts.

Final percentages:

TX-9: 79.8% Obama
TX-18: 82.8% Obama
TX-29: 55.8% McCain, 31.8% white, 60.0% hispanic

Why are you so hell-bent on getting rid of Gene Green? He's a quiet guy and not someone to make loudmouthed comments like Alan Grayson. Plus, he represents a district that's nearly seventy percent hispanic. That map would see lawsuits by LULAC.

Mostly because we can. LULAC can holler as much as they want; with any luck, the right Texas Hispanic Republican can at least move into TX-29 as an open seat.

Greene is too entrenched. He has been in congress for 20 years and in an elected office for nearly 40 years. Doing that will only put him in a position similar to Jim Matheson.

Quite possibly. Around 80-85% of that district is identical to the existing CD-29 (which of course is underpopulated and has to lose hispanic VAP regardless); the only significant change is in the northeast corner where the black dominated 70-85% precincts are chopped out, which all go into another Democratic district anyway.

Still, if Texas can vote out Ortiz, they can vote out Green.

doubt it'll get by the DoJ, but the only real complaint against it from the community of interest perspective is not including the far western edge of East End and Denver Harbor.  And also dividing Jacinto City?

Especially considering Ortiz was in a much safer district (Obama won ~53% there i think). Green will be toast if such a district survives a lawsuit (which is not a sure thing by any means)

Though you can draw a 67% Hispanic district that voted 53% McCain with a similar shape.  You just have to fine-tune the details of it and figure out a good McCain-vote:Hispanic ratio.  There are enough heavily McCain precincts on the outer edges of the district to flip the district--you just have to balance them with Heavily Hispanic districts in inner Houston with low turnouts and medium Obama margins.

Is that 67% VAP? My district is at 65% population and 60% VAP, and as a general rule of thumb, its a 1% to 1% tradeoff, so that makes sense.

These kinds of small changes also give hispanics a strong plurality in CD-9. I don't know of any cases where districts like this have been overturned in any lawsuit; if they could be, the original TX-29 last decade would have also had problems.

The heavy black areas were all in that central area that connected the 2 big hispanic populations. I'm not sure what town is up there or if its unincorporated.

67% total Population, though since the current one is like 72% Total Hispanic and much less 10 years ago, it should be fine.

Also, have you tried connecting the two sections directly?  (Cutting through the 18th right at the neck).  That territory is maybe 63% Obama and you only need a few precincts to go through.  then the 18th just wraps around the top part of the 29th and comes back down, like a fishhook.

slightly off topic, but didn't Gene Green draw himself into power? I believe he was a state senator in the early 90s, and drew a convoluted district for himself meandering through eastern Harris County in search of democratic precincts. I believe Eddie Bernice Johnson did the same thing. You can see a map of the district here:
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/jackbrooks

He picked a lot of the precincts, picking up more in north Houston which were White transitioning to Hispanic, vs those in east Houston.  It also extended west to Spring Branch to include apartment complexes with Hispanic census counts, but who weren't so likely to be voting.  A lot of all the fingers were due to Houston not having zoning, so they had to search out for multi-family housing.  Because it went so far west, TX-18 had to wrap around the district to get from the 3rd Ward to Acres Homes and Houston Heights and then to the 5th Ward and Kashmere Gardens and Clinton Park and Pleasantville in the northeast.   TX-18 needed to include all the northern black areas, since the Democrats were trying to protect TX-25.  You will notice that TX-25 also wraps TX-29 to include areas north of the ship channel which you might have been put in a Hispanic district.  So unlike IL-4 which actually pretends to be picking up Hispanic voters in the loop to the west, the loop in TX-18 was trying to avoid voters.

The first primary in TX-29 was between Gene Green and Ben Reyes, which was extremely close and ended up in court because of cross-over voting between the primary and runoff.  In Texas, there is not a secret ballot if you vote illegally, so you can be called to testify if you have voted in primaries of two parties.  One old man said something to the effect, I'm 75 years old, I've had a good life, and done all the things I've wanted to do, so you might as well come and put the cuffs on, because I'm not going to tell you who I voted for.

Eventually, a new election was called.  And it was also discovered that the primary had not been run on the correct boundaries, with a few precincts excluded, and others erroneously excluded.  I have a fantasy that it was a Taiwanese graduate student trying to analyze the election results, and discovered they didn't actually match the census block-defined boundaries; or that both the Reyes and Green camps knew of this, and were holding off in case of an adverse court ruling.

Eddie Bernice Johnson testified that she had included her friends in uhh,,, her district.  This may have been so that she could grant scholarships to her friends children, so it was not as corrupt as it would appear.

a lot of those white transitioning to Hispanic precincts north of Houston used to be in Jack Field's district I believe. Pretty much all the democratic precincts were excised out of the district and added areas like Montgomery County and College Station to the district. He got a pretty good deal. His old district was a district where where Bush got in the low to mid 50s in 1988. The new district he was given was a 73% Bush district. The newly drawn 29th was a 58% Dukakis District.

North Houston, not north of Houston.  The area starting at North Main, between the East Tex and North Freeways.

and now for an amusing lawsuit...

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/7508489.html

It sounds similar to what happened in 1991.  After the legislature had passed its redistricting bills, they were challenged in a district court in Hidalgo County.  The State (Richards and Morales) conceded that the districts drawn by the legislature were illegal, and that a district court in McAllen should fashion a remedy.  It got moved into a federal court which ruled that the district court hadn't exercised due process, and drew its own plans.  Ann Richards then called a special session to redistrict again.  This was when she was comparing federal judges to infants in a high chair, and that redistricting was like hog butchering.  Most of the legislators were kept out of the process, and Texas ended up with different senate district boundaries in 1990, 1992, 1994, 1996, and 1998.  In Harris County, all the Democratic House districts ended up with 5% less population than the Republican districts.

From the link, it looks like the same type of lawsuit was successful after the 2000 census.

Cameron and Hidalgo counties sued Donald Evans, the Secretary of Commerce (Census Bureau is part of Department of Commerce) to have statistically adjusted census figures released.  The district court dismissed all the juicy claims (equal protection, due process, regulatory procedure, and the Census Act), but did grant release of the figures under the Freedom of Information Act.

The case was appealed to the 5th Circuit but it appears that everything was eventually dismissed with the agreement of the litigants.

At issue then was the claim that the counties and cities would lose money from the US government that is distributed on a per capita basis.  I couldn't find anything whether any population counts or disbursements were actually adjusted.

The lawyer in the MALC case is the same lawyer as the 2000s cases.  I don't know why they don't sue Gary Locke, though since they are claiming that it was the Census Bureau decision to not use mail out.

There are some House of Representative plans submitted by outsiders on the  Texas Legislative Council website (See Districtviewer) (http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/redist.htm)

MALDEF thinks it's OK to draw a district from McAllen to not quite Austin, especially if you draw another district from San Antonio to Austin that prevents the first district from actually touching Travis County.

i like the pates plan. It throws Marchant, Hensarling, and Poe under the bus and also returns the districts to their natural home (17th district is again based in Abilene, 1st is based in Texarkana, 25th in Houston, 11th in Waco-Temple Area)

all right this is my the last map i'll post of Texas. I drew this map in the mind of a republican opportunist. Do you think the republicans would like this map?

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It shows what political hacks the Democratic lawyers were in 2006 when they tried to disqualify Pate.  I sure hope the attorney fees weren't coming from personal funds of the Representative (other than Jackson Lee of course).

Sounds like MALDEF should go hike over to California and ask why there are so few Latino representatives there.

I'm happy to see this though. My 27-9 plan would have 8 hispanic districts; if 9 is a real sticking point (for some reason, Al Green's plurality hispanic district doesn't count..), its easy enough to dive TX-25 into San Antonio and throw all the Austin white liberals into TX-19.

Finally incorporated my bust-a-green move into the overall texas map.

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Texas is a 67.5% McCain state after the 9 Democratic districts (and some small pieces of some neighboring Republican districts) are drawn. It's just a matter of arranging the Republicans; you probably want to keep Williamson, Mcclennan, and Bell County split apart; figure out how much you want to run Sessions into the rural areas, and you're good to go.



TX-23 is 59% VAP Hispanic and 53% McCain, TX-27 is 63% VAP Hispanic and 51% McCain, and TX-29 is 59% VAP Hispanic and 55% McCain, probably for Orlando Sanchez. Even TX-18 hits 45% VAP Hispanic.

Damn.

GRIT has drawn what they claim to be a 29-7 map. No new district in Dallas, Gonzales and Doggett are merged. Bexar county is shattered.

http://gritnewsletter.org/?p=72

That map will never get through the Justice Department. 

No surprise that it is possible. It is probably possible to go one further, maybe even two further. Does not mean it will meet VRA review; nothing less than a Hispanic district in Dallas (plus making a Hispanic district to "replace" Farenthold's) will do for that.

That map claims to have 19 majority minority seats. Probably more than the Democratic plans. I wonder what the demographic distributions are.

I doubt its wise, as a Democratic vote dump in DFW is very smart, but its quite interesting. As drawn there TX-30 probably becomes a majority Hispanic district.

Although, the Maldef plans also slice and dice Bexar, so I doubt they care about that.

Minority-majority =/= VRA compliant. It must typically elect the preferred candidate of the protected minority group to comply. In theory, you could draw every single Texas district to be minority-majority; that map would certainly not meet VRA requirements.

In fact, beyond a certain point (around 12 minority seats) the more minority-majority districts they create, the less likely the map is to be VRA-compliant as the individual minority groups become more and more limited in their ability to elect their preferred candidates in each individual district.

the supreme court should invent a term. A VRA district has to be one where hispanics make up a majority of REGISTERED VOTERS. In case a hack like krazen starts drawing the maps, it can stop them from enacting them.

How on earth are they claiming that their District 25 (Travis County - Austin) is a Republican district? 

I don't know if that's true. Your own state has very few districts where hispanics make up a majority of REGISTERED VOTERS. Not sure why you're complaining about GRIT.

Pull up the 112 plan. The Dem districts are 16, 20, 9, 18, 27, 28, and 30, I think. 25 barely touches Travis.

Aha.  They've got the wrong plan number listed on their blog post. 

No, it really wouldn't.  its not like these districts are R-leaning because most of the Hispanics aren't registered/don't vote ()though that helps), its because they vote 60-40 Democrat while the ~40% white voters vote 75-25 Republican.

Why?  Its not like they can't draw the 27th in a way that is still overwhelmingly Hispanic (like 67% VAP) that also voted for McCain.  You have to trade out Brownsville for the Harlingen area (which is way more Republican and only a little less Hispanic), and add in some of the Hispanic Republican counties more inland, but you can probably draw Farenthold a strong R District that's still easily VRA compliant.

I think it is probably safe to say at this point that Texas will not use the same map through the decade.

Because you need to have a district that routinely elects the Hispanic voters' preferred candidate. That may be a Republican, but it seems at least unlikely. It's pretty easy to draw one district containing the Hispanic parts of Corpus Christi then stretching down to all of Cameron County, then draw another district for Farenthold that contains the white parts of Corpus and Republican areas to the north.

redistricting in Texas is always so much fun...  :)

Doggett found a proposed Republican map.

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2011/04/28/a_proposed_redistricting_map_w.html

The long and short of it:

1. Doggett's district turned into a Travis-Bexar district, presumably Hispanic VRA.
2. Hispanic 33rd in Metroplex.
3. Corpus-based 35th and points north for Farenthold or someone else, his old district reverting to VRA.
4. 2nd district moves all the way into Harris County, and what used to be the 2nd in East Texas is now the 36th.
5. 34th district looks bizarre, linking Parker County to the Hill Country across the remains of Edwards' pre-Delaymander district. Presumably picking up leftover territory after the 21st and 31st districts shrink and expand into Travis.

You can't see the bottom of that map. It depends on how Hidalgo is split; 27 there is almost certainly a Dem district, but 15 might not be.

That 31st is really bad. Williamson and Bell need to be split.

In South Texas, if you chose the correct Hispanics, you could probably do even better than 60-40.

I wish there were some geographical consistency there. The 11th dirstict is going to run from the New Mexican border to almost the Fort Worth suburbs. Ugh.

You seem to have answered my question. Apperently, it is the 15th that Pena is targeting. The other option was for him to inherit the 27th.

Not an impossible plan, but from the Republican perspective the 31st is a bit questionable, though Carter will not be in trouble there, but will he serve until he's 80?

31 doesn't go into Travis County, in fact a bit of Williamson is included in 10. 

MALDEF is demanding a Austin-San Antonio district.  When state demographers were going over the population before the redistricting committee, the Hispanic members, who happen to be lawyers, were carefully eliciting "testimony" about Hispanic growth between the two cities.

34 can be improved.  Give it Kendall, Bandera, Llano, Mason, San Saba, Mills, Hamilton, and all of Hood, so it will look like a Hill Country district.  Move some more of Travis into 21, to make up for Kerr and Bandera, and move the western stack a little bit further east (Cooke, Wise, and Parker) to make up for the loss of the other counties.   Maybe pick up a slice of Williamson.

Rumor has it that C115 will be the plan.

DKE in panic mode.

Link?

http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/

Base Plan C115.

That map has some truly ludicrous and amateurish elements. Basically, three of the four "new" districts plus what the 34th does to the 15th. Surely they can draw a strong Republican map that doesn't look this bad. 

Also, that map splits Laredo in two. Why would anyone expect that to be more acceptable this decade than it was last time?

The two representatives who represented Webb County (Cuellar and Bonilla) submitted a brief requesting that the split be maintained.

How was their brief received by the court?

Wow Epic Fail.  I can draw a fairly clean 25-9-2 Gerrymander that follows the VRA (all Hispanic-majority districts have more tahn 60% VAP Hispanic).

That's just a mess, and not only that, a poorly drawn mess.

That might end up being a 27-9 map. The 15th isn't very dem there. Though they need to smash gene green still and plop a new dallas Hispanic district, which also nicely completely eliminates the last 2 white liberals.

There is no conceivable way the 15th survives a court challenge.  They struck down a Hidalgo-Austin Map, what makes you think they'd approve of a Hidalgo-HOUSTON map?

A lot of meaningful objectionss can be made to the map. Splitting Laredo is simply not one of them.

While the district may very well be challenged in court, it simply is "conceivable" that the district is upheld. Courts have approved baconmandering South Texas for decades. Failing to baconmander South Texas would result in a couple of very Hispanic districts along the Rio Grand, and series of more marginal districts to the North. That sounds fine with me.

The appearance of the district might not even be an issue.

I'm putting this one into Dave's App right now, but it'll will take some time.

I've only done the Dallas metro (which is where Laubenberg lives), and it is a pretty good (IMO) gerrymander of that place without the Hispanic district (which makes me question whether it will be legal under VRA). 

Basically, every CD (except CD-30, of course) is at least 55% McCain, white majority, and less than 30% Hispanic.  CD-24 and CD-32 are bumped up a couple of points (CD-24 from 55 to 57; CD-32 from 53 to 55, respectively).  I think you can improve these another point or two, but the map will be even uglier.

CD-5 and CD-12 are bumped down to compensate (CD-5 from 63 to 58 and CD-12 from 63 to 56, respectively). I think even a more careful gerrymander could up CD-5 and CD-12 a couple of points (more effectively than CD-24 and CD-32), with CD-5 taking from CD-6 and CD-4 and CD-12 taking from CD-26 and new CD-36 (which is an ugly, but effective gerrymander), but CD-5 and CD-12 are done correctly in that they take in fast-growing white areas in the outskirts of the Dallas metro (CD-12 - Parker County, CD-5 - Kaufman County).

Food for thought.  More later.

yeah, but that was back when the Northern part of those districts were overwhelmingly white and needed the Border-Hispanic population to get by the VRA.

You don't really need that anymore.  I can draw 5 Hispanic-Majority Districts in the South Border-San Antonio Area that are all over 60% VAP Hispanic with only 1 "Baconmader", and that's to take Harlingen and put it in a Corpus-Christi District.  Two whole districts are on the South Border (Brownsville to Edinburg, and McAllen to Laredo) that are over 90% Hispanic each and the rest of the map still works.

I remember Laubenberg back when I lived in the DFW Metroplex. She is basically a clone of your stereotypical neorepublican woman (by neorepublican I mean more like musgrave or blackburn as opposed to the old order of republican women like Margaret Chase Smith or Connie Morella). I hated her then and I hate her now, but I actually sort of like her new plan. It makes a lot of competitive districts so that if another year like 1974 happens, the democrats could maybe hold 14-15 seats.

Hmmm...  I wonder whether this is Joe Barton's message to Mr. Lamar Smith.  Smith's CD gets reduced to 52% McCain.  lol  Of course, Smith does get the fast-growing areas...

Canseco's CD becomes 55% McCain, btw.

In DFW, it's a pretty good gerrymander.  Outside DFW, it is fairly inefficient from what I'm seeing, so far.

The question is whether the 15th has a separate distinct hispanic population on the Houston side, and the vap issue. Texas GOP won't mess up vap again, former I can't tell.

The dallas map probably holds through the decade though. Did they at least get the black population out of the 29th?

The court said we received 14 different maps and we ignored them all.

Nope.  In fact aside from throwing Galveston into the new 27th and splitting the 14th and 22nd more cleanly, the Houston map is basically identical to the current one.  I don't know why though--doing that is easy and it takes the 29th from a 62% Obama district to like a 55% one that's actually MORE Hispanic (depending on what you add to compensate though).  Through in the rest of Pasadena, and it winds up a ~70% Hispanic district (66% Hispanic VAP) that voted for McCain.

Though the 22nd is probably under 55% McCain now too, and the 10th looks like it takes in even more of Austin.  Yeah, this is a bad map.  Its ugly and pretty crappy outside of the DFW area, which is the ugliest in the State and will probably get struck down out of sheer ugliness, let alone Population Cracking of the Hispanics there.  I mean, the 31st is probably only about 53% McCain because it takes in Fort Hood (Democratic bastion) instead of the Temple area of Bell County (Republican Bastion).  Its not like Bill Flores needs the extra support--Its an uglyness created that Hurts the Republican incumbent.

Though I toyed with it for a bit, and you can draw about a 62% Hispanic district if you take it from Fort Worth to NE Dallas that looks a bit nicer than that map

Also, Unless I've missed something, that map only adds 1 net Hispanic-Majority district (33rd and 34th created as Hispanic-majority, and 25th turned into Hispanic-majority, but 23rd and 27th are no longer Hispanic-majority).  I don't think the Courts will allow only 1 new Hispanic Majority District, particularly one that's split between Austin and San Antonio like the 25th currently is.

I like the map, but does anyone agree that the Dallas map is pure bullsh!t. In 1988, Michael Dukakis won two districts in Dallas, the 5th and 24th, even though George W. Bush carried the county by a 58-42 margin. In 2008, Barack Obama won the county 57-43, yet only won a single district (the 30th) in Dallas.

Of course--The County is basically a Bunch of Blacks in South Dallas surrounded by swing-y areas.  Under a Democratic Gerrymander, said blacks were split up to swing more Districts to the Democrats.  Under a Republican Gerrymander, the Blacks are all concentrated into one district and the swing areas are lumped with heavily Republican areas in the surrounding counties.  Its Gerrymandering 101.  He who draws the lines controls the elections.

Although to be honest Obama would still probably only have won 2 maps in DFW under a fair plan (South Dallas one and Fort Worth one), mostly because the rest of the area is either Uber-Republican Suburbs or lean Republican Cities (Garland, Mesquite, Arlington, North Dallas if it was its own city etc.).  Outside of the Heavily Liberal South Dallas Burbs and Grand Prairie I don't think Obama won a single small city there.  You would however have like 2-3 others that voted barely for McCain on the order of like 51-52% that a Democrat could conceivably win.

I much prefer the 8th district in this map. It keeps my house and the university I attend in the same district. (At least It appears to, the line looks like it goes through the middle of Walker county)

Apparently this Laudenberg woman isn't on the redistricting committee, so the map (C115) is probably not the one the Republicans intend to pass.

Can Someone help me figure out how to post my screenshots of my TX Gerrymander?  I got the pics saved in Photoshop, but now Photo-bucket apparently can't find them in their folder.  Do i need to convert them to something else instead?

You can store pictures on this site, I believe.  Go to gallery.

Okay, I got my 24-9-3 (Pretty) Clean VRA-compliant Texas R Gerrymander uploaded.

Full State:
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Houston Area:
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DFW:
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Overall, I added 2 Hispanic Majority Districts (35th in DFW, and the 11th in West Texas is now Hispanic-Majority), a Black Majority District (TX-30 in Dallas is now 50.2% Black and 51.2% Black VAP), and a plurality Hispanic district (TX-25 in Austin).

All Hispanic-majority Districts except the 35th are at least 59% VAP Hispanic, all but the 35th and the 11th are at least 61% VAP Hispanic.  TX-27, TX-23 and TX-29 are all McCain-Voting districts as well, although they are all under 55% McCain so i listed them as "swing" districts since they're really not Safe.  But even assuming worst case for the GOP, and it loses all 3, this map is still a solid 24-12 Gerrymander, which represents a 4-seat pickup from 2008.

District-by-District analysis coming shortly.

It's a whole lot easier when you can do the Austin pack, but I suspect that you're going to be required to do the Austin-San Antonio Hispanic thing.  Your TX-11 is a little strange also.

Well, its the only place in the State where you can draw another Hispanic-Majority district without really ugly gerrymandering, so It'll probably stand.  Its more of a community of interest than the Austin-SA district, which you can't actually do under this map (not enough Hispanics free in SA, both TX-20 and TX-23 are at 62% VRA Hispanic, and they can't afford to give up any more to boost TX-25.

District 1:
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This district doesn't change much.  Incumbent Louie Gohmert is Safe in this District, which voted 69% for McCain

District 2: (Dark Green)
()

This district gets completely confined to Harris County, and as a result gets considerably more Republican, taking in some parts of the current TX-7 and TX-10 while losing Swing-y Beaumont and Port Arthur to the 36th.  It goes from 60% McCain to 64.5% McCain, and is a Safe R district for incumbent Ted Poe

District 3:
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This District is now completely inside Collins county, taking in Plano and some surrounding Suburbs.  It gets about 5 points more R, and now voted 63% McCain.  Incumbent Sam Johnson is Safe

District 4:
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This district has the safe rough shape as the current district, but gives up alot of its Dallas Suburbs to the 3rd and 32nd districts.  As a result, it gets about a point more Republican, going from 69.5% McCain to 70.5% McCain.  Incumbent Ralph Hall is Safe here, although his home in Rockwall is very inconveniently place and prevents me from shoring up the 32nd any more.  If he were to retire or move further out from downtown, i could do some reshuffling and make this a primarily rural district.  Either way Safe R.

District 5:
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This district Takes in more of the Garland and NorthEast Dallas, and as a result gets about a point and a half more Democrat.  However, incumbent Jeb Hensarling is still safe in this 62% McCain District (assuming I didn't draw him out of his district, and I don't know precisely where he lives).  Safe R.

District 6:
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This district loses Arlington and some of its Southern rural counties, but picks up Waco and Grand Prarie in Southwest Dallas county.  It goes from 60% McCain to 62% McCain, though incumbent Joe Barton might not like how much new territory he's getting.  Safe R

District 7:
()

This District loses some of its western swing suburbs and picks up alot of Republican and swing territory from the current 18th near central Houston (that i presume was intended to eliminate a Democratic incumbent).  It gets about a point more Republican, going from 58% McCain to 59% McCain.  Incumbent John Culberson is safe here in this reliably Republican district.

District 8:
()

Much like the 2nd District, this district is now completely based in the Overwhelmingly Conservative Northern Houston Suburbs.  Montgomery county is kept together for incumbent Kevin Brady, and the district remains overwhelmingly Republican.  Safe R

District 9:
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This district is basically unchanged.  I tried to balance its Black population with the 18th to keep 2 Black-influenced districts, but this one wound up still being plurality VAP Hispanic, but by less than a point.  Incumbent Al Green should be safe in this heavily Minority 79% Obama District.  Save D

District 10:
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This district changes Radically, and Incumbent Michael McCaul is drawn out of it.  It changed from a finger district between the Heavily Republican parts of Houston and White Liberal Austin, to covering the territory between Bexar and Travis counties.  Its about halfway split between Swing-y South Austin Suburbs and Heavily Republican San Antonio Suburbs.  Incumbent McCaul will probalby not be happy with this district, but its impossible to preserve his district in anything resembleing a clean map, so he'll have to make do with either this district or TX-33, which covers West Austin Suburbs.  Though at 60% McCain, it'll be safe R no matter who runs in it.

District 11:
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This is the first new Hispanic-Majority VAP district, covering most of West Texas outside of El Paso.  Its 59% VAP Hispanic, and has to include some finger portions to get up to that (including forcing El Paso-based 16th to take some white areas of the big bend to compensate).  The District is based in Odessa/Midland, but steches to San Angelo, El Paso, Eagle Pass, and almost up to Lubbock.

While a kind of ugly district, I think this is the cleanest way to add a 9th Hispanic-Majority district in the state.  It doesn't hurt that its also 61% McCain, though incumbent Mike Conway is probably not going to be happy with a Hispanic-Majority district.  Safe R either way though.

District 12:
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This District Doesn't change much from its current form.  Its still basically the White and Republican areas of Fort Worth along with the Surrounding Suburbs.  It has gotten about a point more Republican however, and incumbent Kay Granger is Safe in this 64% McCain District.

District 13:
()

This District gets alot cleaner than its current counterpart.  It now stretches from Amarillo to Wichita falls, with most of the rural areas West and Southwest of Oklahoma it in.  Incumbent Mac Thornberry is safe in this district, which is about equally as Republican as its would-be predecessor.  McCain got 76% of the Vote here.

District 14:
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This District consolidates around the Houston Suburbs, picking up the rest of Galveston County along with most of Brazoria county and Southeast Harris County.  Its significantly more Democratic than the current 14th, but still voted 59% for McCain, so Paul should be safe here barring any major backlash against his unique political style.  Safe R

District 15:
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This is the one that I think is going to be the most controversial, since its basically a Hispanic pack.  At 91% VAP Hispanic, it would be (along with its neighbor the 28th) the most Hispanic district in the US, by a ton.  However, the fact that this district represents a legitimate community of interest instead of a line of counties stretching from the border to Houston (and that the bacon-manderring is no longer needed to satisfy the VRA), I think it'll pass in court.  Incumbent Rueben Hinojosa is very safe here, as the district would have voted 74% Obama (though with extremely low turnout).

District 16: (Darker Green)
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This district is basically unchanged from its current form despite adding thousands of square miles of west Texas nothing.  its still overwhelmingly based in El Paso, still Safely Democrat, and Still around 65% Obama.  Democratic Incumbent Silvestre Reyes is safe here.

District 17:
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This was basically my left-over district, covering a long stretch of rural territory from the coast to North of Houston.  Incumbent Bill Flores is getting a lot of new territory here, but at 64% McCain, it shouldn't be too much of a problem.  The only oddity is that I threw in a bunch of D-leaning West Harris Suburbs, (they had to go somewhere),  but that can be easily traded to the 8th for parts of Montgomery county if necessary.  Safe R

District 18: (Yellow Curved one)
()

This district is ugly.  Really ugly.  It forms a sort of a toilet seat around the 29th district.  However i got this one back to plurality black VAP, so there probably shouldn't be any racial problems.  its shape comes from the fact that I connected the two prongs of the 29th though the middle of its current form, so its overall location doesn't change much.  It does however get a few points more Democratic, and at 81% Obama should be safe for any Democrat to hold.

District 19:
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This district takes in most of West-Central Texas, stretching from Lubbock in the Northwest to San Angelo in the South to Abilene in the East.  Incumbent Randy Neugebauer is safe here, in a district that gave McCain 72% of the Vote.  Safe R

District 20: (Pink)
()

This district moves slightly north from its previous form, taking in some more swing areas of northern San Antonio in exchange for some heavily Hispanic precincts in the South.  As a results, it gets a bit less Hispanic (only 62% Hispanic VAP), but it also gets 3 points more Democratic, so incumbent Charlie Gonzalez is safe here, in a district that gave Obama 66% of the vote.  Safe D

District 21: (Brown)
()

This district gets completely confined to Bexar County.  However, it takes all the Republican parts, so it still voted 59% for McCain, and incumbent Lamar Smith is safe here.  The reason for this districts shape is because I needed an "excuse" to crack southern San Antonio, and fitting this district entirely in Bexar county worked out perfectly for that.  Safe R

Some observations:

1) The key to making a GOP Texas gerrymander safe for 10 years is two-fold - 1) utilize West Texas rural areas to eliminate certain issues in the I-35 corridor; 2) connect Democratic areas in the inner cities with suburbs that are likely to grow.  Too many Republicans are still locked in one place, imo.  My proposed map #1 (to be posted tomorrow) is a bit uglier, but it deals with this issue better.
2) I think the TX-11 thing is unnecessary and can be handled better.  It is of questionable legality, anyways.
3) Dividing Montgomery County in half eliminates all problems in the Houston area for Republicans.  I would do it without thinking.
4) There's no need to crack the South SA barrio if you do the Austin-San Antonio Hispanic thing.  And it allows you to let TX-20 take in most of the annoying for Republicans Leon Valley area, as Hispanics take over.

here is something cool. You can make a district based solely upon the excess of other districts. Here would be the 34th district in Texas that takes off excess population from the 3rd, 4th, 12th, 24th, and 26th.

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District 22:
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This district takes up most of Fort Bend Country, parts of west Harris County, and western Brazoria county.  As a result it gets a bit more Republican, and at 60% McCain, it should be safe for incumbent Pete Olsen.

District 23:
()

This district is now based almost entirely around San Antonio and some rural areas to the East.  Its only about half a point less Hispanic than its current incarnation, but at 52% McCain it should be safer for incumbent Quico Canseco, after trading out the somewhat Hispanic NE San Antonio for the somewhat Hispanic Victoria area, which is far more Republican.  Its probably a Republican-leaning Swing District

District 24:
()

This district sheds its southern half, and is now concentrated around NE Tarrant County.  As a result, it gets significantly Whiter and more Republican, as it would have voted 63% McCain in 2008.  If incumbent Kenny Marchant can be convinced to move into the Tarrant county portino of the district, Coppel and the surrouding Republican areas can be put into the 32nd to make it safer.

District 25:
()

This district is basically an Austin-Pack, though I made sure it wound up being at least plurality Hispanic.  Incumbent LLoyd Dogget will be much safer in this 75% Obama District.

District 26:
()

This District loses its portion of tarrant county, and as a result is now much more Republican.  It takes in parts of Collins County and more of the rural areas north of Dallas, and at 63% McCain, should be safe for Incumbent Michael Burgess.

District 27:

()

This district doesn't change much from its current incarnation, although it does trade out Brownsville for the much more Republican Harlington in South Texas.  Keeping Corpus Christi intact makes solidifying this district a problem since it can't really go anywhere else, but i did make it 5 points more Republican (to 51% McCain), so incumbent Blake Farenthold should be much safe here in 2012.  Lean R at worst

District 28:

()

This is the other South-Texas Based district, and like the 15th its about 90% Hispanic and 70% Obama.  Incumbent Henry Ceullar is very safe here, though he might face a primary challenge from a more Liberal Hispanic.

District 29:

()

This is the Houston Hispanic-Majority District, and it gets significantly more Republican.  I basically cut out all the Black-heavy parts and replaced them with heavily Republican parts in SE Harris county.  It goes from 63% Obama to 54% McCain while still under 25% White.  This should be a Republican pickup, although incumbent Gene Green has won in most of this territory before.  Lean R

District 30:

()

This district loses its heavily HIspanic parts to the 35th, but gains the black parts of Tarrant County.  As a result, it gets more slightly more Democrat and Blacker, and is now 51% VAP Black.  Incumbent Eddie Bernice Johnson is safe here

enjoy trying to get rid of Gene Green. Even if it has minority VAP, that probably won't stand up in court.

Dgov, what do you think of this plan to create 2 hispanic districts? Not that I buy the nonsense that you can't remove the blacks from the 29th district, but its quite easy to push the 18th over the edge anyway.

() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/716/alternateharris.png/)

New Jersey Democrats did a very similar thing to LD-33.

The district is a bit more Democratic on a local level and Gene Green is a strong politician, so don't think that he is done, but I wouldn't want to be running in a wave year there.

I don't expect Texas Republicans to be this smart, though.  The two maps they've come up with so far have been very uncreative, imo.

As for legality, any map drafted will be challenged, so you might as well take chances.  As I said before, having grown up in this area, it is hard for me to argue against bleaching from a community of interest perspective in the way these maps are drawn, as black areas where Hispanics have infiltrated are quite different than white areas where Hispanics have infiltrated (these areas were Hispanic for much longer).  There are other aspects of challenge, of course.

District 31:

()

This district doesn't really change much--It loses its northern Rural areas and Fort Hood in exchange for some rural areas NE of Austin.  At 59% McCain, incumbent John Carter should probably be safe here for the time being.  Safe R

District 32:

()

This district is a bit tricky, since its currently only marginally Republican and has Republican incumbents to the West, NW, North, NE, and East of it, boxing it in from the heavily Republican territory further out from Dallas.  I did manage to get it up to 58% McCain from its current 53%, although its still not as safe as I would like.  If incumbent Ralph hall or Kenny Marchant could be persuaded to either retire or move, this district could easily get up to 61% McCain.


District 33:

()

This district is the first new one, and it takes in 3 very different demographic areas:  the marginally Republican West Austin Suburbs, fairly democratic Fort Hood, and heavily Republican Central Texas.  It all evens out to about 61% McCain, so an easy Republican pickup no matter who runs here.

District 34:

()

This district is the 2nd new one, and takes in most of Arlington and the Southwest Fort Worth Suburbs.  At 63% McCain, its about as safe as most other Dallas-based Republican Districts, and should probably elect an Arlington Republican.  Safe R

District 35:

()

This district is the new Hispanic-Majority VAP one in the Metroplex.  It stretches from Fort Worth to Dallas to Garland, and although its only 55% VAP Hispanic, I don't think it will be much of an issue given that Metroplex Hispanics are so spread out that a district this ugly is basically required to get the Hispanic VAP up to even that.  At 69% Obama, its probably Safe D for whoever decides to run here.

District 36:

()

This district covers the Beaumont/Port Arthur area along with the rural territory north of it.  This area is historically Democratic (Delay actually removed a district roughly this shape in 2003), but turned hard Republican over the last few years, so at 64% McCain it should probably be safe for any R.  If necessary, you can trade territory with the Montgomery-based 8th to shore it up some more, but i don't think thats currently necessary.

I know, though the districts itself would be like the 3rd most Republican district represented by a Democrat in the country if he survives, and its not like it makes any of the Republican districts weaker if you don't try that.

Also, at the very least you're going to force Green to run as more of a Conservative than he currently is, which I'd consider a win.  Considering he won 65% in a 62% Obama district in 2010 also speaks highly of his strength as an incumbent, but that proportionally would mean he would have only gotten about 48% in 2010 in this district (a 17-point drop), so its not like he would be totally unbeatable, particularly if he's actually targeted by the RPOT.

Just to make things clear, this map was designed to be the cleanest Safe R map rather than the best map in general, which is why o tried to keep some counties and COI intact and mess up others.

For example, I fully expect a legal challenge to the 23rd and 27th districts in this map, but I figure that unless the courts are using a straight "Hispanics must vote for the winner" classification (Which i doubt since they drew the current 15th, 27th, 28th, and 23rd as Bush districts in 2006), they should hold up.  Aside from the fact that they voted for McCain, neither district is particularly ugly, and in the 23rds case is actually a better COI than the current map.  Basically the Republicans can use the excuse of repairing COI influence to give themselves a safer map for their two most vulnerable incumbents, and protect a gerrymander from an ethnic-rights lawsuit.

Technically the excuse is to keep the 18th and 9th as Black-controlled (since i basically just removed all the 20-30% Black precincts from the 29th and put them in the 18th.  There's really no other way to do it, since the 29th has basically the only other accessible blacks in the entire Houston area.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/22/us/22ttramsey.html

Key quote:


I can't imagine that Perry would ever let this happen.

Basically, they've got two weeks.  The budget is the other big thing that has to happen, and even though there is a general framework, details are not exactly in stone yet.  I don't know whether they'll be able to accomplish both, and Texas redistricters have not shown great creativity so far, which means they may prefer the court to draw the boundaries and wait, as the court tends to protect incumbents.  We'll see.

They could call a special session. They did it in 2003. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Perry did it again.

The senate and house redistricting bills were passed yesterday.

It is pretty likely that there will be a special session to deal with redistricting, plus cleanup of everything that doesn't get finished this week.  Perry gets to set the agenda.  Traditionally, everyone can file bills and they can be taken up in committee, but they can't be passed unless they are on the call or added to the call.

State courts get first crack at redistricting.  In 2001, a state court drew a very nice congressional map, and then Pete Laney queered the deal.  The Texas Supreme Court threw out the state map.  It was only then that the federal court took over.

The federal district court drew a map that maintained existing boundaries to the extent possible (deferring to the legislative intent as expressed in past maps, and locating new districts where there was the most excess population.  This actually works out well for Republicans because a federal court won't draw a contorted district in DFW in an area where the population has not been increasing.  A federal court won't draw another fajita strip in South Texas.  And if the federal court draws the boundaries, it is not subject to Section 5 pre-clearance.

i know this is slightly off topic, but I heard somewhere recently that Drew Brees had a grandfather who was a congressman in the 1970s and 1980s. Did any of you guys know this?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Hightower (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Hightower)

Rep. Barton files in state in Navarro County, at 12:01 A.M. Sunday.

http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/05/23/3097836/facing-legislative-inaction-barton.html (http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/05/23/3097836/facing-legislative-inaction-barton.html)

How is this expected to impact the map?  Any chance of the court's map being less gerrymandered than what the legislature would've produced.

http://jacksonvilleprogress.com/local/x108199430/Congressional-redistricting-likely-in-special-session

Congressional redistricting likely in special session





These clowns basically need someone to tell them what to do and I'm glad Barton is stepping up to the plate.

Politico though is throwing out the numbers. Smith plan is apparently a 25-11 plan, which is somewhat lame, but they claim Barton's plan is also a 25-11 plan, which is just silly as the Barton plan doesn't create the most important Dem district to make. Looking at that plan, Barton's is 26-10 that gives back the Farenholdt district.

A federal court is required to follow past legislative intent.  They can only make the minimal changes to make the plan legal.  If you look at the 2001 plan, they left as much of the 1991/2/6 gerrymander in place as possible.

A state court might be a little more aggressive, but you could end up having it appealed and overturned.  That is what more or less happened in 2001.  A state court plan would still need to be precleared.

The legislature just moved the filing deadline to November-December (2011).  So a plan probably has to be in place by the first of October.  If it is a State plan, you would have to begin preclearance in early August.

Perry says he'll call a special session once they have a deal.

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-redistricting/redistricting/perry-session-on-congressional-maps-possible/

Any map that means Green could possibly lose won't get preclearance, and would probably be found illegal in court.

Why?  Is Gene Green's incumbency protected under the VRA?

Also, as I mentioned earlier, you can make the district much more Hispanic (to about 65-67% VAP Hispanic) without making it much less Republican (about 52% McCain).

If the Courts are going to shoot down a 65% Hispanic VAP District (More than his current one was in 2000 BTW), they're going to shoot down any map the Republicans propose.  Even then, unless the Courts decide to radically redraw the map instead of just adding back in the 60% Hispanic/30% Black precincts I threw into the 18th, there's really no risk to any other Republican incumbents.  And again, in that case they'd throw out any Republican map anyway.

Gene Green specifically is not protected, but the preferred Hispanic candidate is. Any 52% McCain district would fail the VRA because it would not typically elect the preferred candidate of the Hispanic voters, which makes it an illegal dilution of Hispanic voting power--regardless of how heavily Hispanic the seat is. (Assuming, of course, that the preferred Hispanic candidate is a Democrat, which they usually are. It is possible, though, to draw 55% Hispanic seats in South Florida that would elect only Democrats. That would likely also be illegal.)

Apparently its a go. Dewhurst is putting it on the special session, under majority vote  rather than 2/3.


http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2011/05/31/redistricting_map_splits_travi.html?cxntfid=blogs_postcards


Hispanics of course are getting the Doggett district. That looks like a done deal. They definitely took a play from the Will County playbook.

At least among the leaders of the House and Senate, this plan looks like consensus.





Travis County would be split into five congressional districts, up from three, under a redistricting map proposed this morning by the leaders of the Texas House and Senate Redistricting committees.

And, wow.

http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/

Plan 125 - PLANC125 - SOLOMONS-SELIGER CONGRESSIONAL PROPOSAL
 
This might just be it. And it is glorious in its own way. This could be the 27-9 map we're looking for.

The 33rd connects Arlington with Parker County. Safe R.

The 34th is the new Solomon Ortiz district that bypasses Nueces County and picks up some Hidalgo County Democrats.

The 15th might go Republican at a glance. The 28th experty snakes into Bexar County to grab what I think are the Bexar County blacks, which keeps the Hispanic VAP down. The 20th moves into the Leon Valley. The 23rd grabs a lot more conservative whites and ditches the most liberal hispanics.

The 35th is the vacant Austin to San Antonio district, probably Hispanic, while the 25th becomes a safe R.

The 36th is an absurdity connecting downtown Houston with Grimes County, Tyler County, and Beaumont/Port Arthur. Safe R as well. The 36th is pretty much the height of absurdity.

Tarrant is cracked 5 ways. Travis is cracked 5 ways. Dallas is cracked 5 ways. Harris is part of 9 Congressional districts....

This is what results when you try to do a least-change map for incumbents and add four new districts and when you despise one particular congressman.

looks like a good map, but the Metroplex map will never survive in court

You referring to Ron Paul? Or Doggett?

They didn't have to do anything like this, though. I don't know why they just didn't split Montgomery County between Brady and Poe, and kept the 36th looking sane.

I cheated and looked at the reports. The 15th is 80% VAP Hispanic (similar to 16th) and the 28th has a trivially small Black population, FWIW. Doggett could still win the primary in the 35th, I believe.

Doggett. I didn't consider the impact on Paul. Maybe Paul can primary Farenthold if he doesn't like the new 14th? Farenthold doesn't seem tough to defeat.

The 36th is completely absurd, the only explanation that makes sense to me was that they wanted Brady to have all familiar territory.

For the record: I do not care if Timothy or Bob condemn this map.

Oh, I did not even know they had those reports. That makes things so much easier, thanks.

Wasn't there some kind of Barton vs. Smith fight over redistricting? From the looks of Barton's district, he lost. His district looks like Sessions's. Winnable, but with a large number of Democrats.

He won the battle but lost the war. Barton always wanted to avoid the Dem district in DFW. Naturally that means that he would have to grab some areas somewhere. Smith never had that issue as there are 2 Democrats in that area.

I have to imagine though that Barton is not happy with THAT many of those areas.


http://www.texastribune.org/texas-redistricting/redistricting/texas-state-lawmakers-unveil-congressional-map/


Edit: You are right about the 15th though. It's about 59% Obama. Might be enough to beat Hinojosa for a cycle, but that's about it. Moving Harlinglen in would drop that to about 57%.

I was being sarcastic about Gene Green

Still, I don't really see how this interpretation could actually work.  The Problem is that the current 23rd and 27th would therefore not count as VRA-Districts anymore since they recently elected a candidate that the Hispanic-Majority didn't vote for.  Those are court-drawn districts, and I literally don't think you can make them more DEM while still adding more Hispanic-majority districts to the state.

Also, if its a straight "They Have to vote for Democrats" Rule, there's really no point in even submitting a map.   By Definition, the Texas map would have to be at least 24-12 Republican at minimum to even satisfy it, rendering the whole damn thing a pointless exercise in the first place.

They don't have to always vote for the preferred Hispanic candidate. Just often enough that the Hispanic voting influence is not clearly being diluted. (And what they did with Farenthold reflects that; he got a safe seat, and they created a new Hispanic seat to replace the Farenthold seat.)

TX-23 is similar; it can elect Republicans sometimes, it just has to generally reflect Hispanic voter will. Which the old probably does, but the new one probably does not and may get thrown out. (It would be easy enough to up the Democratic percentage anyway--Corpus has a bunch of Hispanics who could be taken, for example, and the new TX-28 and TX-15 are packed more than they need to be.)

And, yes, the map does have to be 24-12. Or, at least, it has to be at least 24-10-2 or so.

Even the current Court map has no real possibility of a 12th dem district without Chet Edwards. They're capped at 11.

That, IMHO, is basically why the court (and for the court, read Anthony Kennedy, I suppose...) hasn't really spelled out or even fully thought through what its recent decisions tend to - that the VRA renders gerrymandering per se illegal in minority-impacted areas. Push him too much with a whole series of 56% VAP Hispanic, 50% Citizen VAP Hispanic, 54% Republican districts, though, and you run the very real risk of eventually getting just that verdict.