Title: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: dpmapper on December 31, 2010, 01:25:26 PM ()
() First draft of Georgia. Start in the southwest: GA-02 in green, Sanford Bishop. I didn't want to mess with this one too much, seeing as it might trigger a VRA case. This district lost its parts of Columbus, gained Valdosta and most of Macon. It was 48% black, now it's 47% black; I haven't run the numbers on it but it should be a shade more GOP-friendly than it was before. Bishop will have to stay on his toes, given his close call this year. The district that picked up Columbus is GA-03, Lynn Westmoreland. It's still at 59.1-40.2 McCain, and that's without accounting for its part of Floyd county south of Rome. Moving east, GA-08 in yellow for Austin Scott. Losing Macon means it goes from 56-43% McCain to 62.4-37.9. GA-01 (blue) for Jack Kingston: lost Valdosta, gained more of Savannah. In exchange GA-12 (orange) for John Barrow gained counties north of Augusta (and lost some majority black counties in the process). If we assume Savannah/Chatham County votes split proportionally between Kingston and Barrow (which shouldn't be too hard to arrange) then Kingston is still at 59.4-40.0 McCain, while Barrow goes to 52.2-47.2 McCain (from 54-45 Obama). This is actually being nice to Barrow; one could both make him move and give him a 55% McCain district very easily, but I'm tired and just wanted to get this map out there. I do wonder how badly the GOP wants to get rid of him; he is, after all, the least valuable Democrat according to 538 now that Artur Davis is gone. The new district is in bronze, taking in the Atlanta south and southeast exurbs, primarily. Without its Gwinnett parts, it's at 61.4-37.9 McCain. Everyone else should be just as safe as before; I haven't calculated because it's pretty darn obvious. Gingrey (GA-11, in light green) has the GOP parts of Cobb anchored by Paulding and Bartow exurbs which run 70% McCain. Price, GA-06 in teal, has some of the white parts of north Atlanta and DeKalb (I checked most of those precincts - they're about 50-55% McCain in total), plus his home base of Roswell/Alpharetta in north Fulton (>60% McCain), plus Cherokee County at 75% McCain. Woodall (GA-07, in gray), took a purplish DeKalb finger, but lost lean-GOP north Gwinnett while gaining Hall and Jackson Counties (75% McCain). He's safe. Graves (GA-9, light blue) takes the lean-GOP north Gwinnett from Woodall and Broun (GA-10, pink) soaks up some black voters west of Augusta, but given that they still have their parts of north Georgia, they're more than comfortable. So the totals are: 9 solid GOP district 1 lean GOP district 1 minority-almost-plularity-but-still-somewhat-swingy district 3 solid Atlanta Dems Plus, if you really want to mess with Bishop you still have room to do that as well. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Verily on December 31, 2010, 01:49:08 PM There's really no excuse not to make Bishop's district majority black now that it is very possible to do so. Don't think the Republicans will be able to get away with anything less.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on December 31, 2010, 01:54:09 PM If you really want to engage in some monstrosity-making, you can actually take the 2nd and run it from Albany to Columbus to Macon to Augusta to Savannah and create a ~60% black district. It ends up looking like a horseshoe and cuts the state in half; you can do this while leaving 3 CD's worth of population under the cut.
Instead, though, I think they keep the existing 2nd and just put Macon/Valdosta into it. That bumps it up to ~54% black. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on January 04, 2011, 11:53:07 AM There's really no excuse not to make Bishop's district majority black now that it is very possible to do so. Don't think the Republicans will be able to get away with anything less. Yep, I can't imagine them not wanting to do this. img689.imageshack.us/img689/258/georgian.png New CD-2 is 56% Black. New CD-12 runs much farther north and is 28% Black. Whether this dislodges Barrow the way it did Marshall, I am not sure. New CD-14 is 24% black and runs from Gwinnet County south. What I am not sure about is the exact boundaries between CD-5 and CD-6 as well as CD-4 and CD-7. Does it make more sense to run 6 and 7 deeper into Dekalb/Fulton, and run 4 and 5 deeper into Cobb/Gwinnett? Or should 4 and 5 remain in Dekalb/Fulton counties? I'm not sure where the stronger Dem areas are. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: dpmapper on January 04, 2011, 04:30:11 PM Broun lives in Athens, and that's where Barrow used to live, so you probably don't want to run an Athens-Savannah district, besides the usual non-compactness reasons.
The reason I wasn't sure about how many blacks the GOP would want to pack into Bishop's district is that none of the bordering GOP reps need much help, plus they don't want to completely destroy their chances of picking him off if any additional ethical improprieties surface. Plus it gets pretty ugly if you want to get it much higher than 50%. I wouldn't run the GOP districts too far in - you get white liberals and Georgia Tech if you do that. If I had run them any farther into north Atlanta and inner DeKalb in my map, I would have been picking up areas which were Obama 55%+. Better to have 20% minority + white conservatives than a district that's 5% minority but white moderate/liberals. But these are minor details. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 04, 2011, 04:41:29 PM I think the point is that the VRA becomes an issue when there are this many seats to play around with. When you have fourteen seats, can you really argue against drawing a black majority seat in southern Georgia if you're supposed to if you can?
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Sam Spade on January 04, 2011, 04:50:52 PM I would have to think Bishop's CD is probably going to have to be black majority. Which leaves the only question in GA left - how badly does the GOP try to take out Barrow?
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: dpmapper on January 04, 2011, 04:52:57 PM I understood the VRA issue, although one can try to argue against it by saying that 47-8% is close enough and any more requires really jagged lines. My point was more that, even if they're compelled to make it majority black, I doubt that they'll go much higher than 50%+1.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on January 04, 2011, 04:56:28 PM Broun lives in Athens, and that's where Barrow used to live, so you probably don't want to run an Athens-Savannah district, besides the usual non-compactness reasons. The reason I wasn't sure about how many blacks the GOP would want to pack into Bishop's district is that none of the bordering GOP reps need much help, plus they don't want to completely destroy their chances of picking him off if any additional ethical improprieties surface. Plus it gets pretty ugly if you want to get it much higher than 50%. I wouldn't run the GOP districts too far in - you get white liberals and Georgia Tech if you do that. If I had run them any farther into north Atlanta and inner DeKalb in my map, I would have been picking up areas which were Obama 55%+. Better to have 20% minority + white conservatives than a district that's 5% minority but white moderate/liberals. But these are minor details. I don't think the idea is to take him out so much as it is to keep him voting the way you want him to vote, and keep the seat heavy Republican if it opens or in the next 2010. Where you run him to is up for debate. Between weakening Jack Kingston and drawing noncompact lines it probably makes sense to draw noncompact lines. Broun certainly can take all of Augusta and be in a stronger district than, say, Westmoreland and Kingston. And he doesn't have the clout that Kingston does anyway. With Bishop, I figure you might as well pack him in. If/when his ethics violations bite him in the rear, you can do a Joseph Cao and lease his seat for 2 years. The trick to forming a really strong map will be unlocking the excess strength in the 9th. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Sam Spade on January 04, 2011, 04:57:23 PM I understood the VRA issue, although one can try to argue against it by saying that 47-8% is close enough and any more requires really jagged lines. My point was more that, even if they're compelled to make it majority black, I doubt that they'll go much higher than 50%+1. With blacks, that's all that would be required. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Linus Van Pelt on January 04, 2011, 06:30:43 PM I understood the VRA issue, although one can try to argue against it by saying that 47-8% is close enough and any more requires really jagged lines. Actually you can get a small outright majority and still have the most normal-looking rural VRA district in the south after MS-2. () Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 04, 2011, 10:58:02 PM Here's an attempt at a 10-4 Republican map of Georgia.
Statewide map: () Atlanta area: () GA-01 (blue, Jack Kingston - R) - Stretches west to take in some parts of GA-02. Still safe R. GA-02 (green, Sanford Bishop - D) - Yeah, this one almost goes to Augusta in order to soak up as many black voters as possible. Now 55% black. GA-03 (purple, Lynn Westmoreland - R) - Eastern end shrinks, instead goes north. Safe R. GA-04 (red, Hank Johnson - D) - Pretty much the same, 58% black. GA-05 (yellow, John Lewis - D) - Also pretty much the same, 57% black. GA-06 (teal, Tom Price - R) - Here's where things get interesting. The Atlanta suburbs are expanding rapidly, and bringing with them (gasp) diversity. Of course, there's no way of really telling how the suburbs are changing, but I tried to even out GA-06, 07, and 11 as DRA posits the county growth. This one's 68% white. GA-07 (grey, Rob Woodall - R) - Wasn't sure where this guy lives, so I guessed somewhere in Gwinnett County. The district loses its eastern edge but stretches north to compensate. GA-08 (light purple, Austin Scott - R) - Conveniently, Scott lives in the southern end of the district, so I could lop the top off at Macon. Drops the black population from 33% to 28%. GA-09 (sky blue, Tom Graves - R) - now an L-shape along the state's border; not a huge change. GA-10 (magenta, Paul Broun - R) - Ridiculously-shaped in order to soak up both Athens and most of Augusta, but those cities are compensated for by the extremely-Republican parts in the north and western edge of the district. GA-11 (light green, Phil Gingrey - R) - Becomes a much more suburban district. 68% white. GA-12 (very light purple, John Barrow - D) - Tried to dislodge Barrow by reducing the black percentage. Excising much of the black belt portion of the district (and Augusta) and stretching the district northwest reduces the black population to 32%. GA-13 (pink, David Scott - D) - Mostly unchanged, 52% black. GA-14 (brown, open) - Created from parts of GA-03 and GA-08, it should be a pretty Republican seat. 67% white, 26% black. Yeah, so the Atlanta suburbs are a ticking time bomb for the Republicans, but they can always re-redistrict whenever they become too inconvenient. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Verily on January 04, 2011, 11:03:01 PM Couldn't hurt to put the black parts of Newton County in GA-04.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on January 05, 2011, 08:28:08 AM The other option:
Pack Barrow's district and crack ethically challenged Bishop's. This might actually be a better solution since Bishop doesn't have the same 'moderate' tendencies that Barrow does, and it might lead to a primary challenge on Barrow and oust him anyway. () You get the numbers within 1-2% of what you get with the Barrow Configuration. Westmoreland goes up from 22% to 24%, same as Kingston. Bishop's district is 33-34% black depending on how badly you want to draw the lines. Between Savannah, Augusta, Columbus, Albany, Macon, you seem to have to choose 3. Later I am going to try to draw a Savannah-Albany-Macon district, ditching Augusta entirely into Broun's district. Savannah-Albany-Macon puts the bases of all 3 Dem Congressman in the same district. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on January 05, 2011, 09:28:59 AM My expectations for Georgia redistricting:
-The 2nd will become minority-majority -They'll gun for Barrow, possibly by forcing him to run against, Kingston, or maybe Broun or Scott. -The new district will be placed in such a way that northwest Georgia (Dalton, Rome, ect.) gets it's own district. Also, if any Republican loses his district it'll be Gingrey, who's like 70 and is rumored to be contemplating retirement anyway. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: minionofmidas on January 05, 2011, 10:04:09 AM I think the point is that the VRA becomes an issue when there are this many seats to play around with. When you have fourteen seats, can you really argue against drawing a black majority seat in southern Georgia if you're supposed to if you can? Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on January 05, 2011, 12:18:19 PM ()
Here's my take on a likely/possible Georgia map: (analysis by district below goes from south to north, roughly) 2nd (dark green): 52% black, 43% white. Bishop's district gains Macon to make it majority black. 8th (blue on the border with FL): 67% white, 25% black. Austin Scott gets a safe seat. 1st (dark blue, southeast): 59% white, 34% black. Kingston's seat; Barrow might also run. (I should have swapped territory with the 8th to make both districts about 64% white, honestly. Pretend that happened here. Especially with more to the south and less to the north, it's areas where Kingston already has campaign infrastructure and all that. Kingston v. Barrow would be an easy Kingston win in that circumstance.) 12th (blue district in middle of the state): 61% white, 33% black. Open seat ready for a Republican legislator. Marshall could run but he'd have a much harder time winning without his Macon base. I imagine someone like State Senators Tollerson or Staton would run for the seat, which would further reduce Marshall's chances with their political bases in north Bibb Co. and Houston Co., respectively. 3rd (yellow): 66% white, 26% black. A safe seat for Westmoreland that scoops up most of Henry County to avoid having a closer suburban district on the map that could switch parties with a demographic shift. 11th (lime green): 76% white, 13% black. Safe for Gingrey or whatever Republican holds it if he retires. 13th (salmon) 55% black, 30% white, 10% hispanic. Minority-majority district, safe for Scott. 5th (purple) 55% black, 31% white, 10% hispanic. Minority-majority district, safe for Lewis. 4th (red): 56% black, 23% white, 14% hispanic. Minority-majority district, safe for Johnson. 6th district (teal): 68% white, 14% hispanic. Safe for Price. Minimal risk of demographic change; the wealthy whites in gentrified Buckhead and the "McMansion" suburbs of old Milton aren't going anywhere. 7th (gray): 63% white, 18% black, 11% hispanic. Safe for Woodall. Takes in wealthy and white Oconee County to keep Woodall safer from future demographic changes in Gwinnett. 10th (pink): 63% white, 28% black Safe for Broun (though with this district he could be primaried from that guy in Augusta- who IIRC the GOP establishment liked more anyway). Barrow would probably try to run in this district (switching his residency back to his home in Athens) because it includes both Athens and Augusta. The inclusion of the outer Atlanta suburbia with Barrow (the county) and Jackson in this district would help shore up the GOP candidate, though. 14th (golden brown): 81% white, 10% hispanic. Safe GOP seat with no incumbent. I know this district will be created with a certain state legislator (who's on the redistricting committee, lol) in mind; don't remember his name. I want to say he represents somewhere around Dalton. 9th (sky blue in the northeast): 81% white, 11% hispanic. Safe seat for Graves. And, there you have it. A 10-4 map for the GOP without messy boundaries, legitimate grounds for a VRA lawsuit, or risk of losing seats within the decade from demographic movement. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on January 06, 2011, 12:12:57 AM This is the f you map.
() New gold 14th crafted for Senator Bill Cowsert, who happens to be Vice Chair of Redistricting. Mike Keown lives in the new 2nd, which is about 15 points more Republican. Bishop might actually live in the new 55% black 12th. Every other district should be absolutely ironclad. Gwinnett County, even if it goes blue a bit, is split amongst several districts. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: dpmapper on January 06, 2011, 01:08:59 AM Hmm, maybe they should go after Bishop, not Barrow. You might even get Barrow to vote to repeal ObamaCare in exchange for a promise to give him the safe district. Wouldn't want to give him too many African-Americans, though, lest he lose a primary challenge from the left. 50%+1 should be adequate.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on January 06, 2011, 07:39:43 AM Hmm, maybe they should go after Bishop, not Barrow. You might even get Barrow to vote to repeal ObamaCare in exchange for a promise to give him the safe district. Wouldn't want to give him too many African-Americans, though, lest he lose a primary challenge from the left. 50%+1 should be adequate. It actually made more sense to me, since on that side of the state, you don't have to weaken any existing powerful incumbents (IE Kingston). Westmoreland has to take in Columbus, but he is compensated for it. Why should only 1 guy get North Georgia? Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 06, 2011, 08:50:39 AM Bishop lives in Albany, which you split between the 2nd and 12th.
The problem with trying to make Barrow safer is that he's already vulnerable to a primary challenge; that black state Senator who raised no money got about 40% running against him last year. Heck, putting Macon in the district could cause Jim Marshall to run and split the white vote. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: minionofmidas on January 06, 2011, 09:06:03 AM Bishop lives in Albany, which you split between the 2nd and 12th. The problem with trying to make Barrow safer is that he's already vulnerable to a primary challenge; that black state Senator who raised no money got about 40% running against him last year. Heck, putting Macon in the district could cause Jim Marshall to run and split the white vote. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 06, 2011, 09:20:49 AM Yeah, I'm just saying, trying to get rid of Bishop by drawing him in with Barrow would probably backfire.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on January 06, 2011, 10:00:04 AM Bishop lives in Albany, which you split between the 2nd and 12th. The problem with trying to make Barrow safer is that he's already vulnerable to a primary challenge; that black state Senator who raised no money got about 40% running against him last year. Heck, putting Macon in the district could cause Jim Marshall to run and split the white vote. I'm not really trying to get rid of or the other. If Bishop wants to run in CD-12 he is more than welcome to. The idea is to limit the Democrats to 1 district here, I don't care who comes out of it. I figure you put the bases of all 3 congressman (Savannah, Macon, Albany) in mostly the same district and let the chips fall wherever they put them. With Barrow, if you try to knock him off, you can get a redux of Chet Edwards/Jim Marshall with this guy holding onto an R+10 district. I figure if you do this, though, yeah, he is screwed in a primary. But that's his problem, isn't it? I think scholarship Bishop is less likely to hold onto an R+10 district (the 2nd in my map) than Barrow is (the typically drawn 12th in most people's maps). It is, somewhat, meanness for meanness sake, but it is also a great map, imo. I can probably work the 12th deeper into Albany if I want to. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Linus Van Pelt on January 06, 2011, 01:42:43 PM The other issue is that Unnamed New Black Congressperson (D-GA) will probably be more liberal than Bishop. Regina Thomas who got 42% in the primary against Barrow was definitely running to his left; it wasn't a sort of racial non-ideological challenge like that Lawson dude in north Florida was running. So if you're going to have one guaranteed VRA seat, you might as well have it be Bishop, from the GOP's point of view, ideologically speaking.
I mean, I know the sides dislike each other, but this isn't some 8-year old boys' schoolyard fight in which pissing off the other guy is itself a victory regardless of your own interests. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: they don't love you like i love you on January 06, 2011, 10:40:53 PM I just realized the new seat has a good chance of having the highest GOP PVI in the country. You could easily draw a seat stretching from Cherokee to around Hall counties that would probably be around an R+30.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on January 08, 2011, 12:29:16 AM The 11-3 map.
() I ran the 13th down rather than sideways. It's not overly hideous. The 2nd here is about 36% black. Probably winnable for the right candidate, but should keep Sanford on his toes. The existing 12th is utterly dismantled. The new 14th is probably a 56% or so McCain district, just eyeballing it. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: they don't love you like i love you on January 08, 2011, 01:02:07 AM I highly doubt the DOJ would approve that map.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on January 08, 2011, 01:54:06 AM I highly doubt the DOJ would approve that map. Shrug. It's not like the existing 13th is a clean district. I haven't thought much about running it south rather than north. The 9th is just sitting there begging to pick up some blue precincts. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on January 08, 2011, 08:50:08 AM That wouldn't make it through the assembly's redistricting committee. Nobody wants Texas-style fajita strip districts, nor is it really neccesary for an 11-3 district. Legislators from the north would go mad seeing that map. assuming the state wants a fight with the Feds to get that 11th district anyway (though the combative signals from the new Secretary of State and Attorney General make it seem possible), this map wouldn't be it.
I doubt Graves (Hall) and Broun (Clarke) would really like being in the same district, and you're making Westmoreland's district unneccesarily marginal. The new district could tilt with demographic change too. I won't be at a computer until tomorrow (posting on my phone now) but I'll try my hand at a 11-3 map when I get the chance. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: minionofmidas on January 08, 2011, 08:55:31 AM What makes you think you could abolish a VRA seat while gaining a seat overall? Unless the Black pop. dropped, that seems just perfectly obviously imposs.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on January 08, 2011, 09:28:04 AM What makes you think you could abolish a VRA seat while gaining a seat overall? Unless the Black pop. dropped, that seems just perfectly obviously imposs. I personally agree with you, but Attorney General Olens has indicated that he's itching for a fight with the government over redistricting. Expect something subtle I think, if the legislature takes the bait salivating over that possible extra seat. Perhaps a new district for Bishop with a similar racial breakdown, but exchanging some of the current whites in his district with wealthier, more Republican whites in Houston County perhaps? That way "on paper" it wouldn't be as bad. Or perhaps even give him a district he could win in 2012 but would be likely to lose in 2014, thus muddying up any lawsuit against it. Of course, not saying the GOP here would actually try to pull any of this, but it sadly is an option on the table for them. Oh well. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on January 08, 2011, 11:15:27 AM That wouldn't make it through the assembly's redistricting committee. Nobody wants Texas-style fajita strip districts, nor is it really neccesary for an 11-3 district. Legislators from the north would go mad seeing that map. assuming the state wants a fight with the Feds to get that 11th district anyway (though the combative signals from the new Secretary of State and Attorney General make it seem possible), this map wouldn't be it. I doubt Graves (Hall) and Broun (Clarke) would really like being in the same district, and you're making Westmoreland's district unneccesarily marginal. The new district could tilt with demographic change too. I won't be at a computer until tomorrow (posting on my phone now) but I'll try my hand at a 11-3 map when I get the chance. Per his facebook, Tom Graves lives in Gordon County. Nathan Deal I believe lived in Hall County. I would not call that fajita stripping, though. Is it abolishing a VRA seat? That depends on whether you think the new 13th is significantly less compact than the old 13th, which wrapped around 7 counties. The 14th is, as I said, somewhat marginal, but I think that could be helped by shifting precints in Gwinnett to the 7th. I think I made the 7th excessively strong since it has Forscythe. The existing 2nd is not a VRA district, is it? Westmoreland's district isn't even close to marginal. Fayette, Coweta, Heard, Carroll are all 66% counties. Troup is 59%, then he has the White section of Muskogee, Douglas (50/50), and 30k people on the southern tip of Fulton. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 08, 2011, 11:23:33 AM ()
Seems fairly compact to me. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: minionofmidas on January 08, 2011, 11:36:03 AM Why wouldn't the second district be protected by the VRA? And maybe you're thinking of the 2002-6 version of the thirteenth or something.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on January 08, 2011, 11:40:01 AM Why wouldn't the second district be protected by the VRA? And maybe you're thinking of the 2002-6 version of the thirteenth or something. Well, its a plurality, not a majority district. The old 13th obviously was a pretty ugly mess and I have it in the back of my mind. The new 13th still chops through counties and wraps, although the perimeter is obviously lower. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: minionofmidas on January 08, 2011, 11:43:35 AM Why wouldn't the second district be protected by the VRA? And maybe you're thinking of the 2002-6 version of the thirteenth or something. Well, its a plurality, not a majority district. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on January 08, 2011, 12:09:27 PM Why wouldn't the second district be protected by the VRA? And maybe you're thinking of the 2002-6 version of the thirteenth or something. Well, its a plurality, not a majority district. Didn't the Supreme Court decline to require such a district in South Georgia in the 90s? Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: minionofmidas on January 08, 2011, 12:19:08 PM Why wouldn't the second district be protected by the VRA? And maybe you're thinking of the 2002-6 version of the thirteenth or something. Well, its a plurality, not a majority district. Didn't the Supreme Court decline to require such a district in South Georgia in the 90s? Though yeah (and somewhat bizarrely) it was Republicans who wrote the anti-gerrymandering caselaw connected to the VRA, in a series of partisan 5-4 decisions in the 90s. Basically, you can't legally discriminate Black voters, or Hispanic voters, or Native voters, *either positively or negatively*. Though you have to do so fairly badly to actually be called on it. This is really just Kennedy's and O'Connor's position; Scalia, Thomas, Roberts, Alito, Ginsburg and Breyer have no record of ruling anything beyond "this is bad for my party and therefore I'm vetoing it because I can", and the Obama appointees haven't been on the court for any VRA case. The court has been careful never to go so far as to say you can't gerrymander VRA states at all (or, only the areas of the state where race doesn't have anything to do with it - you certainly still can with Austin liberals all you like), and it will be careful not to in the future either, but it would have been the logical conclusion to its argument. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on January 14, 2011, 12:08:59 PM I know this is "US House" redistricting, but I'll just put this here unless you guys think another thread is appropriate.
Georgia's legislature will have quite a hard time redistricting its own seats. The southern half of the state will lose something like two Senate seats and six Assembly seats to the Atlanta metro. I've toyed around with the seats in the south, it looks like they'll be facing many tough decisions- which Republicans get their districts carved out? They can't remove the Democratic districts left down there, because it would make all the surrounding Republican seats more marginal. Also, districting the new districts in the Atlanta area could very well prove difficult as well (though I haven't messed around in the app yet there)- more seats and greater population density necessarily means more compact districts, which makes it a lot harder to protect suburban Republicans in counties like Gwinnett and Cobb from the inevitable demographic shifting. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on January 14, 2011, 12:13:29 PM () Seems fairly compact to me. And definitely more compact than this monstrosity: () Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: muon2 on January 14, 2011, 09:13:14 PM Why wouldn't the second district be protected by the VRA? And maybe you're thinking of the 2002-6 version of the thirteenth or something. Well, its a plurality, not a majority district. Didn't the Supreme Court decline to require such a district in South Georgia in the 90s? Though yeah (and somewhat bizarrely) it was Republicans who wrote the anti-gerrymandering caselaw connected to the VRA, in a series of partisan 5-4 decisions in the 90s. Basically, you can't legally discriminate Black voters, or Hispanic voters, or Native voters, *either positively or negatively*. Though you have to do so fairly badly to actually be called on it. This is really just Kennedy's and O'Connor's position; Scalia, Thomas, Roberts, Alito, Ginsburg and Breyer have no record of ruling anything beyond "this is bad for my party and therefore I'm vetoing it because I can", and the Obama appointees haven't been on the court for any VRA case. The court has been careful never to go so far as to say you can't gerrymander VRA states at all (or, only the areas of the state where race doesn't have anything to do with it - you certainly still can with Austin liberals all you like), and it will be careful not to in the future either, but it would have been the logical conclusion to its argument. Given that GA is 30% black, any map that doesn't have at least 4 districts where blacks can elect a candidate of their choice would be subject to a section 2 challenge, and the DOJ would probably reject it under section 5 for the same reason. That wouldn't help the GA AG if he wants to pick a fight over the applicability of section 5. The legislature may want a map that is as safe from section 2 as they can imagine, but still picks a fight with the DOJ. That would certainly include squeezing out Barrow while making 4 districts with >50% black VAP to meet the standard set in the 2009 Bartlett decision. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on January 19, 2011, 03:15:56 PM Here's an evil idea- putting the black parts of Albany, Columbus, Macon, AND Augusta all in the 2nd district. I've been toying around with it on the app and it can actually be done pretty easily; it can be done in two ways. First, it could cut across the northern edge of the black belt all the way from Alabama to South Carolina and fit three full districts south of it (with an extension the width of a single county cutting down to Albany). Alternatively, you could give Bishop more of his old territory and a cleaner-looking district, but it would require one of the south districts to awkwardly skim the SC border through Augusta and take in the white suburbs to the north. Either way, it eliminates Barrow, prevents a Marshall comeback, and provides a ~55% black VRA district for Bishop (and with enough of his old territory that he'd be pretty safe from a primary challenge by someone more liberal).
Will post maps. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on January 19, 2011, 03:56:20 PM Here's option A.
() Eastern district (incumbent is Kingston): 60% white, 32% black (-320 from ideal pop.) Southern district (no incumbent): 65% white, 28% black (+181 from ideal pop.) Central district (incumbent is Scott): 60% white, 35% black (-215 from ideal pop.) Green district (incumbent is Bishop): 54% black, 41% white (+161 from ideal pop.) the three Republican districts here aren't perfect, but the focus here is the 2nd district. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on January 19, 2011, 04:21:40 PM ()
Here's Plan B. Dark blue- Kingston- 63% white, 29% black Medium blue- Scott- 63% white, 30% black light blue- Barrow (but he'd lose)- 62% white, 31% black Green- Bishop- 56% black, 39% white Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on January 24, 2011, 04:51:25 PM How Republican are South GA Whites, BK? 75%? 80%?
Or another way of to approach this would be to ask if you know the McCain versus Obama number on your maps in what would be Kingston's district especially, since it was mentioned, yet again off board, that he could lose in a bad year if you target Barrow. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on January 24, 2011, 04:58:52 PM How Republican are South GA Whites, BK? 75%? 80%? Or another way of to approach this would be to ask if you know the McCain versus Obama number on your maps in what would be Kingston's district especially, since it was mentioned, yet again off board, that he could lose in a bad year if you target Barrow. Chatham County is about 40% black and went 57% Obama. Simple math suggests the nonblack portion is about 70-75% Republican. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Verily on January 24, 2011, 05:04:16 PM Reposting this here:
I'm curious if anyone knows--has Dave's Redistricting been updated for the 2009 ACS figures? I ask specifically about Georgia (I know he has new figures for New England.) I was poking around the NYT map, and then verified this info on the American FactFinder Census site, and the black population is increasing so fast in some parts of the suburban Atlanta metro that it may in fact be not only possible but easy to draw a fourth black majority seat in the Atlanta metro (which could affect whether the DOJ sues to force one). For example, Rockdale County, GA was estimated at 32.6% black in 2008 ACS and is now estimated at 37.0% black in the 2009 ACS. On that 3.4% annual increase, it would be around 39% black at the 2010 Census (which is less than a full year after the ACS). Similar rapid growth is shown in Newton County, Henry County, Douglas County and Cobb County (and to a lesser extent in Gwinnett County, where Hispanics and Asians form the larger part of the new residents, and in Clayton County, which increased from 51% black in 2000 to 60% in the 2009 ACS but seems to have stabilized recently). It is accompanied by a slight decline in Fulton County, but the decline in Fulton is tiny relative to the increase in the others. If the changes really are that rapid, how easy a black district is to create might change dramatically from the 2008 estimates to the 2009 ones, or to the actual 2010 census figures (which will include another half-year of change after the 2009 estimates). And even on the 2008 numbers it is possible, just barely, to craft four black majority seats in the area (albeit only 50-51% black each.) Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Verily on January 24, 2011, 06:31:53 PM Per the above, using the ACS 2009 data, four black-majority seats in the Atlanta metro. They probably could be a lot neater (in their boundaries with one another); this was just my first attempt. On the 2010 Census, assuming trends continue, this will be slightly easier. Also, I limited myself to Cobb, Douglas, Fulton, Fayette, Clayton, DeKalb, Gwinnett, Henry, Newton and Rockdale Counties. It becomes a LOT easier if you're allowed to reach into Spaulding and Coweta Counties (which historically were separate but today I think have a fair number of commuters).
() Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on January 24, 2011, 06:53:36 PM ()
Here's the census definition of the metro area. Pretty easy to fit four black districts in those borders, especially if one doesn't mind some tendrils. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on January 24, 2011, 10:30:26 PM Here's an evil idea- putting the black parts of Albany, Columbus, Macon, AND Augusta all in the 2nd district. I've been toying around with it on the app and it can actually be done pretty easily; it can be done in two ways. First, it could cut across the northern edge of the black belt all the way from Alabama to South Carolina and fit three full districts south of it (with an extension the width of a single county cutting down to Albany). Alternatively, you could give Bishop more of his old territory and a cleaner-looking district, but it would require one of the south districts to awkwardly skim the SC border through Augusta and take in the white suburbs to the north. Either way, it eliminates Barrow, prevents a Marshall comeback, and provides a ~55% black VRA district for Bishop (and with enough of his old territory that he'd be pretty safe from a primary challenge by someone more liberal). Will post maps. That's precisely why I drew the same thing with Albany, Macon, Augusta, and Savannah instead. It has the same effect, and Columbus is easy enough to swallow in the 9th. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on January 25, 2011, 02:57:33 PM Toying around with the 2009 ACS estimates, it's actually very easy to make both the 2nd and the 12th majority black...
() 1st (dark blue): 70% white, 23% black 2nd (green): 53% black, 43% white 8th (medium blue): 66% white, 28% black 12th (light blue): 52% black, 44% white Can/would the DOJ sue to force something like this, since it's possible? Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on January 25, 2011, 03:08:25 PM What are the VRA requirements for an area to need two such VRA districts? And what line would the Supreme Court take on them?
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Verily on January 25, 2011, 03:13:17 PM What are the VRA requirements for an area to need two such VRA districts? And what line would the Supreme Court take on them? The requirements are sort of vague. They have to represent communities of interest, which means no maps that stretch tiny spindles across states to create minority majority seats. For example, Corinne Brown's seat would never be required--although the Florida GOP wanted to draw it to pack in Democrats, so there was no suit forcing its creation. I think BK's map suggests that communities of interest would be met, especially as the Richmond-Savannah link exists even now, and Macon is not far outside of Bishop's current seat. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on January 25, 2011, 03:34:17 PM What are the VRA requirements for an area to need two such VRA districts? And what line would the Supreme Court take on them? Pretty much 8 justices rule to favor their party, and Kennedy figures out what he wants. It really depends on how hard both sides want to play. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: muon2 on January 26, 2011, 02:18:49 AM What are the VRA requirements for an area to need two such VRA districts? And what line would the Supreme Court take on them? In De Grandy (1994), the SCOTUS ruled that a state is not obligated to create more minority districts than would be expected based on the proportion of that minority in the state. Quote We hold that no violation of § 2 can be found here, where, in spite of continuing discrimination and racial bloc voting, minority voters form effective voting majorities in a number of districts roughly proportional to the minority voters' respective shares in the voting age population. So, as I posted earlier, the magic number for GA is 4 CDs to avoid a section 2 challenge. GA is a section 5 state and requires preclearance. Typically this is done by filing with DoJ. However, the state can also file its proposed district changes with the Federal District Court of DC, and skip DoJ. I presume that the DC Court would look to the section 2 standard set in De Grandy. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on January 26, 2011, 02:18:51 PM Ah, missed this post earlier.
How Republican are South GA Whites, BK? 75%? 80%? Depends on where in South GA, exactly- Savannah has some white liberals just like, say, Charleston does. 70% GOP sounds about right for Chatham whites, yes. Other counties like Laurens or Baldwin still have some blue dog Dems locally, with whites also voting around 70% GOP; the white Democratic candidates rely on the black voters to win. Besides that, though, in most places whites are about 80-90% Republican. I'm actually working on a map right now that displays the white percentage of a county minus the percent McCain got- basically a rough measurement of how Republican a given county's whites are. I'll post it here when I'm done; notably though I've discovered some counties (Bleckley and Calhoun so far) actually have a greater percentage McCain than of whites. Of course one must keep in mind that whites have a higher turnout than blacks, but still that has to be a McCain vote of at least 90% among those whites. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on January 26, 2011, 02:41:14 PM Also, The State Senate PPT lost an intra-party fight (http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2011/01/25/casey-cagle-wins-an-obscure-but-important-tiff-over-redistricting/) with Lt. Governor Cagle regarding, among other things, control over redistricting. This means that all three men in control of the process will be from the Atlanta Metro area. Not sure what effects that will have in the south.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on January 28, 2011, 09:49:21 PM Ah, missed this post earlier. How Republican are South GA Whites, BK? 75%? 80%? Depends on where in South GA, exactly- Savannah has some white liberals just like, say, Charleston does. 70% GOP sounds about right for Chatham whites, yes. Other counties like Laurens or Baldwin still have some blue dog Dems locally, with whites also voting around 70% GOP; the white Democratic candidates rely on the black voters to win. Besides that, though, in most places whites are about 80-90% Republican. I'm actually working on a map right now that displays the white percentage of a county minus the percent McCain got- basically a rough measurement of how Republican a given county's whites are. I'll post it here when I'm done; notably though I've discovered some counties (Bleckley and Calhoun so far) actually have a greater percentage McCain than of whites. Of course one must keep in mind that whites have a higher turnout than blacks, but still that has to be a McCain vote of at least 90% among those whites. That sounds interesting but for right now, I am just wonding how Republican a 63% white district in South Ga would be since someone said that your idea to undo Barrow would make Kingston vulnerable. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on February 01, 2011, 10:44:15 AM Ah, missed this post earlier. How Republican are South GA Whites, BK? 75%? 80%? Depends on where in South GA, exactly- Savannah has some white liberals just like, say, Charleston does. 70% GOP sounds about right for Chatham whites, yes. Other counties like Laurens or Baldwin still have some blue dog Dems locally, with whites also voting around 70% GOP; the white Democratic candidates rely on the black voters to win. Besides that, though, in most places whites are about 80-90% Republican. I'm actually working on a map right now that displays the white percentage of a county minus the percent McCain got- basically a rough measurement of how Republican a given county's whites are. I'll post it here when I'm done; notably though I've discovered some counties (Bleckley and Calhoun so far) actually have a greater percentage McCain than of whites. Of course one must keep in mind that whites have a higher turnout than blacks, but still that has to be a McCain vote of at least 90% among those whites. That sounds interesting but for right now, I am just wonding how Republican a 63% white district in South Ga would be since someone said that your idea to undo Barrow would make Kingston vulnerable. Kingston would be fine with a 63% white district. First off, there wouldn't be any change in the voting patterns of the district's white- the relatively moderate white vote within Savannah would be cancelled out by the especially conservative Savannah suburbs. Kingston routinely gets around 70% of the vote in his 72% white district; a 63% white district would still keep him safe in even a very rough election. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on March 20, 2011, 11:22:17 PM Okay, I've toyed around with the 2010 data for a few minutes in Dave's app; it looks like making either the 2nd or 12th into a 50% black VAP district will require a pretty ugly gerrymander.
However, a glimpse at the Atlanta metro gives me the impression that drawing four black districts there could be done a great deal more simply than with the ACS data- possibly with the districts even looking somewhat clean. When I wake up tomorrow I'll try a map. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on March 21, 2011, 12:09:45 PM Okay, I've toyed around with the 2010 data for a few minutes in Dave's app; it looks like making either the 2nd or 12th into a 50% black VAP district will require a pretty ugly gerrymander. However, a glimpse at the Atlanta metro gives me the impression that drawing four black districts there could be done a great deal more simply than with the ACS data- possibly with the districts even looking somewhat clean. When I wake up tomorrow I'll try a map. It almost seems to me like the 12th should be dissolved entirely and relocated. There's a lot of population loss in South Georgia. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Brittain33 on March 21, 2011, 12:21:41 PM It almost seems to me like the 12th should be dissolved entirely and relocated. There's a lot of population loss in South Georgia. Have you tried to do this? I wonder what the outcome would be. 1+2+8+12 = almost exactly four districts at the current target, but I could see moving some of the 8th's northern territory into an Atlanta exurban district and having it and the 10th take up much of what remains in 12 while moving the rest of Savannah in to the 1st. Paul Broun and Austin Scott wouldn't be reps for life, but it could be safe enough. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on March 21, 2011, 12:29:25 PM It almost seems to me like the 12th should be dissolved entirely and relocated. There's a lot of population loss in South Georgia. Have you tried to do this? I wonder what the outcome would be. 1+2+8+12 = almost exactly four districts at the current target, but I could see moving some of the 8th's northern territory into an Atlanta exurban district and having it and the 10th take up much of what remains in 12 while moving the rest of Savannah in to the 1st. Paul Broun and Austin Scott wouldn't be reps for life, but it could be safe enough. Vaguely. The inital idea I had was to just loop through counties from Savannah to Augusta to Macon to Albany. It turns out that the connecting counties have lost too much black population for such a district to be 50% black VAP anymore without hacking precincts. Instead, I started toying around with running the 8th east rather than north. Scott and Kingston would split Savannah and each would end up with a ~65% white 28% black district. The new 12th becomes an Atlanta exurb/Augusta based district that also goes sidewards and sits in the center of the map; also ending up at about 65/28. Macon just slides into the 2nd, or if you really want to push the envelope, the 13th. It ends up looking like something like Bacon posted in reply 16. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on March 21, 2011, 01:48:45 PM ()
With the Southern part of the state losing population, one of the four existing districts down there will basically be pushed northwards as the other districts take its territory. The above map turns the 8th district into a black majority district by losing all the territory south of Macon and pushing a bit into the Atlanta metro. It's then very simple to create three other black majority districts in the Atlanta area, thus fulfilling GA's four "expected" VRA districts, allowing the 2nd and 12th to be easily taken from their incumbents. I'm not sure if this map messes with any Republican incumbents; the lines might have to be moved a mile or so around Lawrenceville (Gwinnett) for Woodall and in Marrietta (Cobb) for Gingrey, but that wouldn't be a problem. VAP%: dark green 50.0% black (actually 50.013% so passes Gingles) 37.8% white 7.9% hispanic light green 50.7% black 33.7% white 9.9% hispanic yellow 51.1% black 24.5% white 15.6% hispanic 6.9% asian gray 50.1% black 42.1% white 4.4% hispanic I'm gonna try to turn this into a full map now. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on March 21, 2011, 02:28:28 PM () With the Southern part of the state losing population, one of the four existing districts down there will basically be pushed northwards as the other districts take its territory. The above map turns the 8th district into a black majority district by losing all the territory south of Macon and pushing a bit into the Atlanta metro. It's then very simple to create three other black majority districts in the Atlanta area, thus fulfilling GA's four "expected" VRA districts, allowing the 2nd and 12th to be easily taken from their incumbents. I'm not sure if this map messes with any Republican incumbents; the lines might have to be moved a mile or so around Lawrenceville (Gwinnett) for Woodall and in Marrietta (Cobb) for Gingrey, but that wouldn't be a problem. VAP%: dark green 50.0% black (actually 50.013% so passes Gingles) 37.8% white 7.9% hispanic light green 50.7% black 33.7% white 9.9% hispanic yellow 51.1% black 24.5% white 15.6% hispanic 6.9% asian gray 50.1% black 42.1% white 4.4% hispanic I'm gonna try to turn this into a full map now. The Dark green district could probably snake down through the 2 black counties down to Columbus rather than taking Westmoreland's Republicans. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on March 21, 2011, 03:51:38 PM ()
CD1: Kingston's seat stays pretty similar. Safe R. 66.7% white, 25.2% black. CD2: Austin Scott facing off in favorable conditions against Sanford Bishop. This district is basically the old 8th district's portion south of Macon, (the half of the district Scott is from, so more of a personal vote too) plus Bishop's home of Albany, and a swath of territory from the old 2nd district he lost 2-1 last year (and he got only about half of the vote in these counties in 2008, in spite of winning with 69% against a no-name challenger). Note that the whites in this part of the state have become very Republican in the last decade. Strong R. 58.6% white, 34.7% black. CD3: Westmoreland's district taking in the rest of Bishop's old district. It has enough of the old 3rd to keep Westmoreland comfortable; potential demographic changes will only make it easier for him. Safe R. 62.7% white, 30.3% black. CD4: Hank Johnson keeps a safe district that extends out include to minority areas in Snellville and Lawrenceville to protect the Woodall from shifting demographics in the future. Safe D, VRA district. 51.1% black, 24.5% white, 15.6% hispanic, 6.9% asian. CD5: Lewis's district stays safe, but extends out to central Cobb now to keep Gingrey's district safer. Safe D, VRA district. 50.7% black, 33.7% white, 9.9% hispanic. CD6: Price's district shifts south to take in some more liberal white areas in Atlanta, but it's extremely wealthy, white, and conservative north Fulton base stays the same. Safe/strong R. 65.6% white, 12.2% hispanic, 12.0% black, 8.4% asian. CD7: Woodall keeps a safe district that'll be safe for the decade thanks to losing Gwinnett's heavily minority areas in return for white and conservative outer suburbs. Safe R. 66.8% white, 12.5% black, 10% asian. CD8: Like I said in the last post, The old 8th loses its southern half and gains on its northern end to become a VRA district. It'd be an open seat; Jim Marshall could actually win it if no major black candidates run. Strong D (may become vulnerable to a takeover later in the decade) 50.1% black, 42.1% white. CD9: Tom Graves' safe district. yawn. Safe R. 84.5% white. CD10: Broun's district that he'd probably lose if challenged by a Hall County Republican. The GA GOP establishment hates Broun, and the redistricting trifecta (Gov, Lt. Gov [as head of State Senate], Speaker) are all from Hall County, so this kills two birds with one stone. Safe R. 78.1% white, 9.6% hispanic, 9.3% black. CD11: Safe seat for Gingrey; basically a mirror of Woodall in the 7th. Safe R. 78.7% white, 10.3% black. CD12: The district to get rid of Barrow. Takes away the black parts of Augusta and replaces it with plenty of superconservative rural territory. Strong R. 60.3% white, 32.8% black. CD13: David Scott's district. Currently safe D but demographic change could make it competitive, especially for someone scandal-prone like Scott. Strong D. 50.01% black, 37.7% white. CD14: open seat, kind of an awkward district but necessary given everything around it. Besides, IIRC there's a big mover-and-shaker in the state legislature in this area really wanting a district. 64% white, 29.9% black. So there you have it. 8R-4D Georgia with the four D's all VRA Atlanta districts, all eight Republicans pretty safe and in familiar districts, and even a possible pickup opportunity for the Republicans to maybe hold a VRA district for two years if given a "perfect storm" situation. Thoughts? Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on March 21, 2011, 09:13:49 PM This is my new aggressive map.
() (http://img818.imageshack.us/i/fullo.png/) () (http://img215.imageshack.us/i/closeup1.png/) Writeup here. I'll retype it later. http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/228/georgia-redistricting-1031 Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on March 21, 2011, 11:33:24 PM My comments:
-if you're trying to get rid of Bishop there's much easier ways to do it (see my map) -regarding putting into the 6th district parts of Atlanta that "never should have been in the 5th at all", do note that those areas looked very different demographically in 2000 than they do now. -7th district won't happen. Hall County will either have no incumbent or an incumbent the state party hates (Broun). -Graves actually lives in the eastern part of Gordon County so you've cut him out of his district. -at 30% black Georgia's gonna have a 4th black district; given how easy a 4th minority district is to make I don't see how they'd pass preclearance otherwise. -it's much easier and simpler to push Columbus into the 3rd than put it in your crazy 13th district -your map looks FAR more gerrymandered than it really needs to be, especially in North GA. Note, for example, that my map's districts are gerrymandered to hell and back, but for the most part aren't overtly ugly on the map. Style matters as much as function with these things, at least as far as a potential media response is concerned. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on March 22, 2011, 12:45:05 AM Thanks for the comments.
Per the 2000 census data, that area around Buckhead (and to the north) between I-75 and I-85 was always predominantly white and wealthy. It's still like that 10 years later, I believe, or at least it was last year when I visited. The Hall County thing bothered me, too, but it could be solved with an uglier Gwinnett chop. The entire scheme of splitting Gwinnett in half and anchoring with Forscythe and Hall can remain; you just have to put Lawrenceville in the Forscythe district. Good point about Graves though; at second glance, that county split is probably unnecessary even if it exists now. I swapped some Cobb precincts and put Gordon county entirely in the 9th. As it stands, I weakened Broun enough such that he might lose. That district is only 58% McCain; same with the 12th. Keep in mind that Section 2 has never required the maximum number of minority districts. I certainly don't believe in needlessly giving away a 4th district when it doesn't exist now, and Democrats can easily be packed into 3. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on March 22, 2011, 01:30:59 AM Per the 2000 census data, that area around Buckhead (and to the north) between I-75 and I-85 was always predominantly white and wealthy. It's still like that 10 years later, I believe, or at least it was last year when I visited. Okay, Buckhead, yeah. I didn't look at the map that closely and thought you were talking about somewhere closer to Midtown. Quote The Hall County thing bothered me, too, but it could be solved with an uglier Gwinnett chop. The entire scheme of splitting Gwinnett in half and anchoring with Forscythe and Hall can remain; you just have to put Lawrenceville in the Forscythe district. True, and it wouldn't be that hard to do, I was just pointing it out for ya. Quote Good point about Graves though; at second glance, that county split is probably unnecessary even if it exists now. I swapped some Cobb precincts and put Gordon county entirely in the 9th. To be fair, I only learned which town Graves lives in when I was making my own map earlier today :P Quote As it stands, I weakened Broun enough such that he might lose. That district is only 58% McCain; same with the 12th. I have no idea where in Athens-Clarke County Broun resides, but the easiest way to shore up the 10th for you would be to place minority areas of Clarke and the librul bastion of UGA while flipping some territory north of Hall County into the 10th. Quote Keep in mind that Section 2 has never required the maximum number of minority districts. I certainly don't believe in needlessly giving away a 4th district when it doesn't exist now, and Democrats can easily be packed into 3. Section 2 isn't the issue here; Section 5 is :P Georgia's not passing preclearance with only three minority districts, not when a fourth can be so easily created. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on March 22, 2011, 08:56:20 AM Section 2 isn't the issue here; Section 5 is :P Georgia's not passing preclearance with only three minority districts, not when a fourth can be so easily created. The way I see it: Deal, Kingston, Gingrey, Norwood, Price, and Westmoreland all really, really hate section 5 and tried to get rid of it in 2006. They'll sue. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on March 22, 2011, 10:11:50 AM I've retooled my map a little bit. Goodness, I'll probably keep at this until I have it perfect, just like Torie when he does this. :P
() Close-up of the Atlanta metro: () Highlights: - I've realized that Kingston's district can hold all of Chatham Co. and still remain a safe seat. - From that, I've been able to take the 12th district permanently out of Barrow's hands. - I redid the four minority districts so they look nicer. Note that while CD5 does look a bit odd extending into Gwinnett like that, it does so by pushing up around I-85 so it actually makes a bit of sense. - Although it probably doesn't matter that much, I gave CD6 territory in the very religious, conservative, and suburban Cobb/Cherokee Counties to minimize any affect that white liberals in the south of the district would have. - I did what I could to shore up Westmoreland more by giving him more of his current district's conservative suburbs. It's more than 8% less black than his current district so I think he'll be okay. - Gave Broun a district separate from the Hall district; note the Athens split (that is, interestingly almost identical to how Athens is currently split by GA Sen. districts) Demographics! (groups w/ over 10% are listed) CD1: 60.5% white, 29.7% black (VAP: 63.4% white, 28.3% black) CD2: 54.7% white, 37.1% black (VAP: 57.8% white, 35.4% black) CD3: 59.7% white, 31.7% black (VAP: 62.0% white, 30.5% black) CD4: 52.1% black, 24.6% white (VAP: 50.1% black, 38.2% white) CD5: 51.4% black, 24.9% white, 14.6% hispanic (VAP: 50.1% black, 28.4% white, 12.5% hispanic) CD6: 66.6% white, 13.8% hispanic, 11.2% black (VAP: 68.5% white, 12.1% hispanic, 11.4% black) CD7: 62.7% white, 12.3% hispanic, 11.8% asian, 11.0% black (VAP: 65.1% white, 11.7% asian, 11.1% hispanic, 10.6% black) CD8: 52.3% black, 34.8% white (VAP: 50.2% black, 38.5% white) CD9: 81.3% white, 11.0% hispanic (VAP: 84.3% white) CD10: 60.1% white, 31.7% black (62.8% white, 30.1% black) CD11: 75.0% white, 14.5% black .... and then I accidentally X'd out of the app. Derp. The 13th was demographically identical to the other three VRA districts, the 12th was about 64% white, and of course the 14th was very white. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on March 22, 2011, 10:38:46 AM Section 2 isn't the issue here; Section 5 is :P Georgia's not passing preclearance with only three minority districts, not when a fourth can be so easily created. The way I see it: Deal, Kingston, Gingrey, Norwood, Price, and Westmoreland all really, really hate section 5 and tried to get rid of it in 2006. They'll sue. Oh, I don't doubt they'll try, but do realize it almost certainly won't work. I remember Westmoreland getting extremely excited in 2009, saying that it looked like Section 5 would soon be on the way out, and then two weeks later the Supreme Court decided 8-1 that the 2006 Section 5 extention was constitutional. Doubt a lawsuit would work for Deal on that front :P They could try to bail out, but while it would possibly be successful it wouldn't be done in time for 2012 districts. But yeah, let's assume that Georgia tries to submit a 3-VRA district map for preclearance because this state's Republicans really want to fight the Feds on everything. Let's also assume that most likely, after a potentially costly legal battle, Georgia will end up being required to draw a 4-VRA district map. Krazen, let's assume you are attempting to model the former while I'm attempting to model the latter :P Also, since it seems to be only the two of us following this thread right now, do you have any comments/criticism besides the number of VRA districts? I'd like to improve this thing some more. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on March 22, 2011, 11:35:13 AM Oh, I don't doubt they'll try, but do realize it almost certainly won't work. I remember Westmoreland getting extremely excited in 2009, saying that it looked like Section 5 would soon be on the way out, and then two weeks later the Supreme Court decided 8-1 that the 2006 Section 5 extention was constitutional. Doubt a lawsuit would work for Deal on that front :P They could try to bail out, but while it would possibly be successful it wouldn't be done in time for 2012 districts. But yeah, let's assume that Georgia tries to submit a 3-VRA district map for preclearance because this state's Republicans really want to fight the Feds on everything. Let's also assume that most likely, after a potentially costly legal battle, Georgia will end up being required to draw a 4-VRA district map. Krazen, let's assume you are attempting to model the former while I'm attempting to model the latter :P Also, since it seems to be only the two of us following this thread right now, do you have any comments/criticism besides the number of VRA districts? I'd like to improve this thing some more. I think you don't have the Republican killer instinct. :) Well, I think if you're going to go with 4 VRA districts, the 4th one won't be black, but rather a Hispanic/Asian coalition type sitting in North Dekalb/Gwinnett, combined with Forscythe that a Republican is a lot more likely to win. But given 4 black districts: Ultimately a 4 black district map should probably retain 1 in South Georgia, imo. You had a concept for it in the old maps a couple pages back with the arching district that sucks up all the blacks outside the Atlanta Metro. It's just ultimately much easier to use North Georgia to crack areas like Cobb County. If you're going to have 4 black districts in the Atlanta metro, 1 of them shouldn't touch Dekalb/Fulton/Clayton at all. Your initial CD-8 is definitely better than your new CD-8; see if you can create a black or minority district that runs from Gwinnett (Centerville, I think?) to Bibb without touching those counties. I think you messed too much with important people. The biggest problem with an 11-3 Georgia map is that guys like Jack Kingston will scream if you tried to give them the rest of Chatham County. Not that he couldn't win easily, but he's selfish like that. You also cut Gingrey and Price out of Cobb/North Fulton a lot. On my map, I tried to mess with the freshmen more and the veterans less. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on March 22, 2011, 12:29:02 PM Try something like these districts (either the gold or the purple):
() (http://img827.imageshack.us/i/templatep.png/) The purple one maintains similar racial percentages to Sanford Bishop's existing CD-2. The gold is a coalition district. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on March 22, 2011, 12:47:15 PM The thing is, with four black majority districts that form coherent communities of interest so simple to create, you have a pretty clear Section 2 requirement that the Feds will surely demand in preclearance. From a Republican perspective, I think it's better to put the fourth VRA district in the Atlanta area- in south GA the black vote is so spread out that a black district will be a tangly mess (and it's instead easier to dilute the population between districts without risk of demographic upsets since the black population is shrinking badly). Modifying either the 2nd or 12th into black majority districts is MUCH harder than the 2009 ACS suggested, which I used for the earlier maps you're talking about. With four Atlanta VRA districts like in my 2010 data maps, those four districts can push into Atlanta's middle suburbs to prevent minority population growth in the next decade from pushing Gingrey and Woodall put of office. You deal with this problem by cutting up Gwinnett, which is less preferable for many from a community of interest perspective (ex: Gilmer County has enough of an issue being in a Hall/Forsyth district, no way their state legislators would support a map that extends their district even further south!)
You're right about Gingrey/Price, just imagine a bit of territory pushed east in each district to push Price out of Cobb and Woodall out of Fulton. Maintain equality by shifting population from the 14th to the 7th, 9th from the 14th, and 11th from the 9th so it all evens out. I don't think Kingston would mind that new district much, honestly. He'd be safe, keep his base, and has always struck me as a timid guy anyway. Westmoreland, on the other hand, might pitch a fit, but making his district any safer in my second map would require keeping Sanford in a tossup-ish district while putting Austin Scott over in my 12th district. Doable but less preferable for the GOP. Of course, maybe you're right- I don't really like the state Republican party and ideally support nonpartisan redistricting reform, so this is just a sort of academic excercise for me- my heart's not in it :P Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Verily on March 22, 2011, 03:10:47 PM I don't get why you think making GA-02 majority black VAP is so hard on the Census numbers, BK. It's pretty easy. You have to be willing to split a few counties, but around 52% black VAP is not hard at all and doesn't look all that messy. The below map has GA-02 as 52.1% black VAP (ignore the surrounding districts).
() Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on March 22, 2011, 03:31:45 PM Ah, I'm an idiot. :P it was around 3 AM when I tried and found it "impossible", and didn't bother trying again afterwards; I'll just blame it on the sleep deprivation.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: minionofmidas on March 23, 2011, 01:53:49 PM I was just about to say, Verily. "Are you guys sure you can't draw a Black district out of Columbus, Macon and Albany? I have a hard time believing that."
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on March 24, 2011, 03:59:29 PM Oh, just found this out: a second district shaped pretty similarly to Verily's there was declared unconstitutional in a Federal district court in the nineties, echoing the Supreme Court's earlier reasoning in Miller v. Johnson.
() Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Verily on March 24, 2011, 04:14:24 PM I find it highly unlikely that a court would rule similarly today. That was just a district court, after all. Also, I think my version is neater (and could be even more neat if needed while maintaining 50% VAP).
And back then it was certainly possible for the candidate favored by black voters to win a 40% black seat in the area. Not so nowadays--the need to protect minority interest in electing their preferred representative has become much stronger as the non-black vote has swung to ultra-Republican. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on March 24, 2011, 04:23:12 PM I find it highly unlikely that a court would rule similarly today. That was just a district court, after all. Also, I think my version is neater (and could be even more neat if needed while maintaining 50% VAP). And back then it was certainly possible for the candidate favored by black voters to win a 40% black seat in the area. Not so nowadays--the need to protect minority interest in electing their preferred representative has become much stronger as the non-black vote has swung to ultra-Republican. True. Also, one could argue that your district is drawn for incumbency protection and partisanship reasons, both of which are constitutional (and neither of which applied in '92). Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on March 24, 2011, 04:32:10 PM True. Also, one could argue that your district is drawn for incumbency protection and partisanship reasons, both of which are constitutional (and neither of which applied in '92). I don't see that district making it past the legislature; GA Democrats would love it, but for GA Republicans it submerges too many white Uber-Republicans. If you're making a black district in South Georgia it probably makes more sense to place it where GA-12 is; I think Savannah and Augusta have some white liberals. I'm glad you posted the original GA-13, though, it was the basis for my new GA-13. Whether your 4 district plan constitutes 'communities of interest', well, I dunno. You obviously chop both Atlanta and Dekalb County in half, and your 4 way split of Fulton itself. We'll have a good idea of what the Justice Department is doing with the Louisiana map. Right now, pretty much everyone in North Lousiana hates everyone in South Louisana because nobody wants to lose the axed district. Any attempt to force a 2nd district would incidentally create a common enemy as nobody wants to be represented by a Black Democrat. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on March 24, 2011, 05:32:02 PM A black majority 12th would be nigh-impossible. I'll double check but I am pretty sure on that one :P
Regarding the 2nd, there is some talk here in GA about playing it "safe" and swapping territory between the 2nd and 8th to keep both incumbents safer; Westmoreland especially supports this (probably because he doesn't want his district to be drastically altered, which will necessarily happen in any plan that tries to eliminate Bishop). The four Atlanta-area districts in my map are almost certainly communities of interest; they all represent reasonably cohesive areas- note that "communities of interest" isn't exactly held to an extremely strict standard and regardless doesn't necessarily equate strictly to municipal boundaries. Also, regarding Louisiana, it's quite likely that Landry that'll be getting the axe and I really doubt the state won't keep LA-2 black majority; aside from legal concerns it's also an extremely convenient Democratic vote sink. But that's a discussion for amother thread :P Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on March 24, 2011, 05:41:28 PM ()
This is the best I could do and the cleanest I could get it, too. 50.1% black VAP. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on March 24, 2011, 06:07:54 PM () This is the best I could do and the cleanest I could get it, too. 50.1% black VAP. Try arcing it down to Albany. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on March 25, 2011, 12:54:47 AM Here ya go. This hideous miscarriage of justice clocks in at a 53.8% VAP.
() Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Dgov on March 25, 2011, 02:39:18 AM () This is the best I could do and the cleanest I could get it, too. 50.1% black VAP. That's not actually all that bad of a district. its better than most south Georgia Black-majority districts I've seen. On top of that, this benefits the Republicans (more if they can cut out Effington county), because they can split the current 2nd in half and force Bishop to pick up some more conservative territory in South-Central Georgia and lose the black part of Columbus, which can be safely put in the current 3rd district. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on March 25, 2011, 07:57:19 AM Here ya go. This hideous miscarriage of justice clocks in at a 53.8% VAP. () It's not clean, but I'd guess the PVI on that is about 5 points better than the Columbus Albany Macon district. Does Augusta have its share of white liberals? Richmond County is 51% black and 66% Obama, so it does seem like there are a few. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Verily on March 25, 2011, 08:51:39 AM There's no way that district would pass muster. The courts would simply say that incumbent protection could be accomplished in a much easier fashion without combining communities obviously of not similar interest.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on March 25, 2011, 10:16:35 AM There's no way that district would pass muster. The courts would simply say that incumbent protection could be accomplished in a much easier fashion without combining communities obviously of not similar interest. Incumbent protection wouldn't be the justification here; obviously the GOP has no interest in protecting Democratic incumbents. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on March 25, 2011, 10:26:23 AM Also, regarding Louisiana, it's quite likely that Landry that'll be getting the axe and I really doubt the state won't keep LA-2 black majority; aside from legal concerns it's also an extremely convenient Democratic vote sink. But that's a discussion for amother thread :P Oh, I wasn't referring to the 2nd district, but rather maintaining the 2nd district and converting the 4th into another black district. That's what the Louisiana Legislative Black Caucus wants, anyway, and some of them think the DOJ is their vehicle to get it. But hell will freeze over before it happens, even though its 'theoratically ' possible. I suspect we'll see the same thing in LA, AL, GA, and SC: We'll see 60-65% packs come out of the legislature, and the DOJ will pick its response. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on March 25, 2011, 12:10:40 PM Also, regarding Louisiana, it's quite likely that Landry that'll be getting the axe and I really doubt the state won't keep LA-2 black majority; aside from legal concerns it's also an extremely convenient Democratic vote sink. But that's a discussion for amother thread :P Oh, I wasn't referring to the 2nd district, but rather maintaining the 2nd district and converting the 4th into another black district. That's what the Louisiana Legislative Black Caucus wants, anyway, and some of them think the DOJ is their vehicle to get it. But hell will freeze over before it happens, even though its 'theoratically ' possible. I suspect we'll see the same thing in LA, AL, GA, and SC: We'll see 60-65% packs come out of the legislature, and the DOJ will pick its response. There's a huge world of difference between the stringy proposed maps of Louisiana and, for example, the 4 VRA district GA plans. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: RI on March 25, 2011, 12:21:44 PM Anyone want to do a 6+ VRA district map? ;)
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Verily on March 25, 2011, 02:11:46 PM Just did it. Actually had a lot of excess black population, so the bright yellow district (or is it bright green--colorblind) is 61% black and there are plenty of excess blacks in Cobb County. Not enough for a 7th seat, though, I don't think.
Majority black VAP seats are the grey, teal, purple, hot pink, cyan and bright yellow ones, unless my colorblindness caused me to misdescribe the colors. () Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on March 25, 2011, 02:54:27 PM (or is it bright green--colorblind) it's lime green :) And that is a beautifully hideous map, great work there Verily. I could see a 7th seat, made by shaving down the 61% district, taking up Cobb County, then extending tendrils outwards to the cities in the north with some minority population (especially if it could make it over to Hall Co.) being <50% white and maybe even a black-hispanic coalition district. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Dgov on March 25, 2011, 06:15:32 PM You can easily do a 7-VRA district if you just go for plurality Black instead of majority-black. You can get 5 in the Atlanta area alone, and two more in South Georgia.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on March 25, 2011, 10:35:36 PM But if it's plurality it's not a VRA district. Gingles test.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: minionofmidas on March 26, 2011, 05:27:27 AM But if it's plurality it's not a VRA district. Gingles test. Even then the district itself doesn't need to be 50.1, it only needs to safely elect a candidate of the Black community's choice. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on March 26, 2011, 07:08:19 AM But if it's plurality it's not a VRA district. Gingles test. Even then the district itself doesn't need to be 50.1, it only needs to safely elect a candidate of the Black community's choice. Ah, thanks for the info :) I love how this forum is such a wealth of knowledge- I'm pretty sure I've learned more about politics and related topics here over the years than I have from all other sources combined, even in college poli sci classes and such. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: minionofmidas on March 26, 2011, 07:20:52 AM But if it's plurality it's not a VRA district. Gingles test. Even then the district itself doesn't need to be 50.1, it only needs to safely elect a candidate of the Black community's choice. Ah, thanks for the info :) Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: JacobNC on May 13, 2011, 10:53:30 PM GEORGIA: 8-6 DEMOCRATIC GERRYMANDER
***All Democratic districts are majority-minority*** () Atlanta Close-up: () District 1 (light green): Southeastern Georgia Jack Kingston (R) SAFE REPUBLICAN 68% John McCain 31% Barack Obama 71% White 21% Black District 2 (yellow): Southwestern Georgia Sanford Bishop (D) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC 55% Barack Obama 45% John McCain 48% White 45% Black District 3 (light purple): Stretching from North of Columbus around Atlanta to Gainesville Lynn Westmoreland (R) SAFE REPUBLICAN 68% John McCain 31% Barack Obama 76% White 18% Black District 4 (gold): East Atlanta (DeKalb) Hank Johnson (D) SAFE DEMOCRATIC 60% Barack Obama 40% John McCain 47% White 26% Black 19% Hispanic District 5 (dark green): Atlanta (Fulton) John Lewis (D) SAFE DEMOCRATIC 66% Barack Obama 34% John McCain 46% White 40% Black District 6 (sky blue): Northwest ATL Suburbs Tom Price (R) SAFE REPUBLICAN 71% John McCain 28% Barack Obama 78% White 9% Black District 7 (gray): East DeKalb, Gwinnett Rob Woodall (R) LIKELY DEMOCRAT 56% Barack Obama 44% John McCain 48% White 40% Black District 8 (blue): South-Central GA Austin Scott (R) SAFE REPUBLICAN 64% John McCain 36% Barack Obama 68% White 25% Black District 9 (peach): Northeast GA Tom Graves (R) SAFE REPUBLICAN 73% John McCain 26% Barack Obama 83% White 9% Black District 10 (pink): Stretches from DeKalb to Athens Paul Broun (R) LEAN DEMOCRATIC (Likely Dem if Broun is running - Hallelujah!) 54% Barack Obama 45% John McCain 48% White 27% Black 14% Hispanic District 11 (red): Northwest GA Phil Gingrey (R) SAFE REPUBLICAN 70% John McCain 29% Barack Obama 82% White 7% Black District 12 (bright green): Augusta to Savannah John Barrow (D) SAFE DEMOCRATIC - but maybe not for him! 65% Barack Obama 34% John McCain 51% Black 43% White District 13 (dark blue): West of Atlanta OPEN DISTRICT (Scott moves to 14th) LEAN DEMOCRATIC 54% Barack Obama 45% John McCain 49% White 35% Black 11% Hispanic District 14 (olive): South Atlanta (Clayton) David Scott (D) SAFE DEMOCRATIC 64% Barack Obama 35% John McCain 51% Black 38% White Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Dgov on May 14, 2011, 02:26:31 AM Lol--Dekalb County GA is literally 82 people short of a full Congressional district.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: freepcrusher on May 14, 2011, 10:43:23 AM is there a metropolitan area as politically diverse as the Atlanta area? You can dry a compact 94% Obama district without trying, but you can also draw a compact 75% McCain district in the northern perimeter of the area.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 14, 2011, 12:07:36 PM 9-4-1 Georgia map:
State () Atlanta () GA-01 (blue) - 64.1 McCain, 35.2 Obama. (Was 63-36 McCain) GA-02 (green) - 62.1 Obama, 37.4 McCain, 52.0% black VAP. (Was 54-46 Obama) GA-03 (purple) - 65.7 McCain, 33.3 Obama. (Was 64-35 McCain) GA-04 (red) - 85.8 Obama, 13.5 McCain, 56.2% black VAP. (Was 79-21 Obama) GA-05 (yellow) - 76.0 Obama, 23.1 McCain, 52.8% black VAP. (Was 79-20 Obama) GA-06 (teal) - 60.9 McCain, 38.0 Obama. (Was 62-37 McCain) GA-07 (grey) - 60.3 McCain, 38.7 Obama. (Was 60-39 McCain) GA-08 (tan) - 62.9 McCain, 36.3 Obama. (Was 56-43 McCain) GA-09 (sky blue) - 71.0 McCain, 27.6 Obama. (Was 75-24 McCain) GA-10 (magenta) - 58.9 McCain, 40.0 Obama. (Was 61-38 McCain) GA-11 (light green) - 67.6 McCain, 31.0 Obama. (Was 66-33 McCain) GA-12 (light purple) - 49.7 Obama, 49.7 McCain, 36.7% black VAP. (Was 54-45 Obama) GA-13 (pink) - 74.3 Obama, 25.1 McCain, 60.1% black VAP. (Was 71-28 McCain) GA-14 (brown) - 71.1 McCain, 27.7 Obama. GA-08 is now out of reach for the Democrats; I tried to maintain or strengthen the other Republican districts as much as possible, but GA-06 and GA-10 slip a little. And GA-12 is now only an Obama district by about 70 votes. It would be much easier if you could just remove Savannah from the district, but that would push Kingston's district up to about 55-45 McCain, and I doubt he'd like that. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: JacobNC on May 14, 2011, 05:06:39 PM is there a metropolitan area as politically diverse as the Atlanta area? You can dry a compact 94% Obama district without trying, but you can also draw a compact 75% McCain district in the northern perimeter of the area. Maybe Dallas or Houston. I was thinking of drawing a Republican gerrymander to see how black I can make a district. Currently the blackest district in the US is only around 65% black (in Chicago). You could probably make an 85-95% black district in South Atlanta. Also... I made this map a while ago to see how many majority-minority districts I could make. I only made minor changes when I got the election data, but if you unpack John Lewis & Hank Johnson's districts you might be able to shore up the 10th and 13th. You may also be able to make a hispanic majority district but I don't know if that would be ideal for a Democratic gerrymander. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: freepcrusher on May 15, 2011, 07:56:32 PM is there a metropolitan area as politically diverse as the Atlanta area? You can dry a compact 94% Obama district without trying, but you can also draw a compact 75% McCain district in the northern perimeter of the area. Maybe Dallas or Houston. I would agree with Houston. In 1984, there was a district that took in the area inside the 610 loop called the 18th District that gave Walter Mondale 72 percent of the vote. There was also a district right next to it that took in the the memorial villages, river oaks, and the remaining western part of the county called the 7th which gave Reagan 83 percent of the vote. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Dgov on May 15, 2011, 11:13:29 PM is there a metropolitan area as politically diverse as the Atlanta area? You can dry a compact 94% Obama district without trying, but you can also draw a compact 75% McCain district in the northern perimeter of the area. Most Cities in the South are like that, Atlanta is just big enough for it to be noticeable. For Example, Birmingham is considered one of the most Liberal Cities in the US (~90% Obama I think), but its Suburbs are also some of the most Conservative in the US (AL-6 was McCain's best Congressional district I think). It's not as noticeable because Birmingham is only like 200,000 people, and so can't form its own congressional district. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 16, 2011, 01:59:18 AM Uh, Birmingham is 24% white. Voted 90% Obama? LOL.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Dgov on May 16, 2011, 04:25:25 AM Uh, Birmingham is 24% white. Voted 90% Obama? LOL. It's listed as the 19th most Liberal City in the US, right after Philadelphia and right Before St Louis, so Kerry probably got about 80% there. And those rankings were based on 2004--i.e. before Obama ubercharged Black Southern Turnout. http://alt.coxnewsweb.com/statesman/metro/081205libs.pdf Also, this makes it the most Liberal Large City (more than 100,000 people) in a state Obama didn't win Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 16, 2011, 08:15:02 AM The authors of that paper seem to be mistaking "Democratic" for "liberal".
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 22, 2011, 01:32:49 AM What's the most McCain district you can draw in the Atlanta suburbs?
() 74% McCain. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Dgov on May 22, 2011, 02:28:30 AM What's the most McCain district you can draw in the Atlanta suburbs? () 74% McCain. Cut out Cartersville and add Pickens and Dawson counties (which i think are Atlanta Exurbs now), and you get it up to 76% Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on May 23, 2011, 12:46:56 PM Dawson and Pickens are both in the Atlanta Metro per the Census Bureau, yeah.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 23, 2011, 01:05:42 PM Ouch, Bacon King's home was 76% McCain. And I thought my home in Bismarck, ND was bad enough.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on May 23, 2011, 02:23:38 PM Ouch, Bacon King's home was 76% McCain. And I thought my home in Bismarck, ND was bad enough. Don't remind me! :P Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on May 23, 2011, 10:42:29 PM Ouch, Bacon King's home was 76% McCain. And I thought my home in Bismarck, ND was bad enough. Don't remind me! :P Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: freepcrusher on May 24, 2011, 04:41:22 PM Ouch, Bacon King's home was 76% McCain. And I thought my home in Bismarck, ND was bad enough. Don't remind me! :P probably more republican. Obama did better in pretty much all sub or ex urban areas in the country. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 24, 2011, 09:25:51 PM Barrow County definitely swung toward Obama.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on May 25, 2011, 07:59:26 AM My precinct in 2008: 77.97% McCain
My precinct in 2004: 82.65% Bush Neither total includes early/absentee votes. Including those, it probably increases the swing by a couple more percent. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Yelnoc on May 29, 2011, 06:40:27 PM My precinct in 2008: 58.6% McCain.
I couldn't find 2004 data, but I assume there would have been a ten point swing in Bush's favor, considering that a) He performed better overall and b) there has been and still are several large waves of emigrants flooding my town, mostly from the northeast though some, like myself, are from out west. I only read the first page and the last page of this thread, so, where do people think the two new districts will be created from? Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 29, 2011, 06:49:21 PM Pretty sure Georgia is only gaining one seat. As I understand it, all the power brokers are from north Georgia, so I'm going to guess there. I drew a map a page or two back that stuck a new district in the northeastern corner of the state.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Yelnoc on May 29, 2011, 06:57:07 PM Pretty sure Georgia is only gaining one seat. As I understand it, all the power brokers are from north Georgia, so I'm going to guess there. I drew a map a page or two back that stuck a new district in the northeastern corner of the state. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Yelnoc on May 29, 2011, 07:20:25 PM So, here is my attempt at a Gerrymandered Democratic District. Every single district voted for 90% or over for Obama, except for two that I was forced to include because they were encircled; both were in the 80's.
97.5% for Obama in 2008 87.9% Black in the 18+ category () Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: MatthewZD on May 30, 2011, 09:07:21 PM I grew up in Calhoun, right in the middle of carpet country. It's always surprised me that there was never a district centered around the Dalton-Rome-Cartersville triangle. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: MatthewZD on June 03, 2011, 08:27:14 AM I decided to try my hand at reapportionment and all I have to say is "yeesh, pass the Aleve, I've got a headache." South GA is a challenge trying to get a couple of majority minority districts without them looking like gerrymandered messes.
However, I did manage a fairly compact complete plurality district in northeast Atlanta. I'll post a photo of it later on, but it's around Chamblee, Doraville, Tucker, and Duluth stretching down to Redan, Centerville, and Lithonia. 36.9% black, 27.3% white, 23.9% hispanic, and 9.6% Asian. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on June 03, 2011, 10:13:49 AM Pretty sure Georgia is only gaining one seat. As I understand it, all the power brokers are from north Georgia, so I'm going to guess there. I drew a map a page or two back that stuck a new district in the northeastern corner of the state. In Georgia, all three of the redistricting trifecta (governor, lt. gov, and speaker) are from Hall County (in Northeast GA) though that county is currently represented by a guy from the northwest corner of the state. The new district will almost certainly be centered around Hall County. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: they don't love you like i love you on June 05, 2011, 11:18:58 PM Georgia has 180 State House districts. How many white liberal seats can be drawn?
I have 7. Two in Athens, two in the white part of northern Atlanta, two in DeKalb and one that kind of straddles the border between Atlanta and DeKalb. I haven't finished yet so who knows if there's white liberal enclaves in Savannah or whatever. What's with Decatur? I have a 66% white seat around there that was almost 78% for Obama, this is the best performance among whites I've seen for Obama in the state. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: MatthewZD on June 06, 2011, 08:07:35 AM What's with Decatur? I have a 66% white seat around there that was almost 78% for Obama, this is the best performance among whites I've seen for Obama in the state. It's always been a fairly liberal area compared to the rest of the state. Plus, two colleges - Agnes Scott and Emory - are there so that most likely contributes to the liberal lean of the area. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on June 06, 2011, 09:13:32 AM Exactly; Decatur is not culturally Southern at all.
Also, you'll probably find about a state House district's worth of white liberals in Savannah. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on June 06, 2011, 09:43:56 AM Exactly; Decatur is not culturally Southern at all. Also, you'll probably find about a state House district's worth of white liberals in Savannah. How many of those will actually be drawn? The 2 in Athens? It should be easy to put the white liberals in black districts based on residence. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: freepcrusher on June 06, 2011, 10:41:16 AM there are certain areas of Georgia (like in Athens or inside the 285 perimeter) where Obama won the white vote. Considering he only won 23% of the white vote statewide, its disturbing to consider what % of the white vote he won if one takes out those areas. I'm guessing it would be almost as bad as there neighbor to the west.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: they don't love you like i love you on June 06, 2011, 12:52:24 PM Exactly; Decatur is not culturally Southern at all. Also, you'll probably find about a state House district's worth of white liberals in Savannah. How many of those will actually be drawn? The 2 in Athens? It should be easy to put the white liberals in black districts based on residence. No it's not. Go look at the population map, northern Atlanta and DeKalb County are very white and the white areas have more than enough population for several state house seats considering that they aren't very big. Savannah obviously has more liberal whites than the most places in the state, but it's tough to draw a Democratic state house seat there without a significant black population. The whitest precinct there that voted for Obama is 80% white and 51% for Obama. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on June 07, 2011, 04:08:05 AM Exactly; Decatur is not culturally Southern at all. Also, you'll probably find about a state House district's worth of white liberals in Savannah. How many of those will actually be drawn? The 2 in Athens? It should be easy to put the white liberals in black districts based on residence. The current map even drowns out the white liberals in Athens. One white liberal district, one (IIRC) plurality black district with a some white liberals, and one district that drowns out some white liberal votes by putting them in a district with the neighboring conservative rural areas. Also yeah, many (if not most) of the liberal Dekalb/Fulton whites are put into VRA districts. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: RBH on June 25, 2011, 03:51:14 PM My unconstitutional plan
() () GA1 (blue): 70W/20.5B, 66.6/32.7 McCain GA2 (green): 36W/56.5B, 65.3/34.2 Obama GA3 (purple): 70W/22B, 66.4/32.7 McCain GA4 (red): 27W/58B, 80.8/18.4 Obama GA5 (yellow): 30W/57.5B, 77.6/21.7 Obama GA6 (teal): 67W/12B, 62.9/35.9 McCain GA7 (gray): 49W/21B/19H, 59/40.1 McCain GA8 (blueish): 67W/25B, 67.2/32.1 McCain GA9 (skyblue): 81W/11H, 70.8/27.9 McCain GA10 (fuchsia): 79.5W/11B, 71/27.8 McCain GA11 (light green): 60W/24B/11H, 58.1/40.7 McCain GA12 (blueish): 42W/49B, 65.4/33.8 Obama GA13 (peach): 33W/51.5B, 62.5/36.6 Obama GA14 (gold): 70W/15H, 71.4/27.4 McCain so 14 districts, none of them closer than 17% presidentially Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Linus Van Pelt on June 25, 2011, 07:05:15 PM Given Muon's comments about the De Grandy decision and the recent Louisiana preclearance, it seems pretty likely that 10-4 with an attack on Barrow will be ruled constitutional. It's possible to get the 12th up to 56% McCain while keeping the 1st, 8th and 10th all at 59/60 without any of the squiggly stuff courts don't like on the borders among these districts, and without any major modifications to the rest of the state. I think this is much more likely than the attack on Bishop discussed earlier in the thread, which would require one of the GOP incumbents to get a much less white district. With all incumbent residences in the district of the same number and the new 14th district in the region of the redistricters' Hall County base:
() (All race numbers VAP) 1 (blue): 59/41 McCain, 65% W 2 (forest green): 61/39 Obama, 51% B 3 (purple): 65/34 McCain, 72% W 4 (red): 80/19 Obama, 52% B 5 (yellow): 81/18 Obama, 51% B 6 (dark green north Atlanta): 60/39 McCain, 66% W 7 (grey): 66/33 McCain, 69% W 8 (purply-blue): 60/40 McCain, 64% W 9 (pale blue NW): 70/28 McCain, 84% W 10 (pink): 60/39 McCain, 71% W 11 (light green): 60/39 McCain, 65% W 12 (pale blue central): 56/44 McCain, 61% W (currently D+1) 13 (beige): 70/29 Obama, 57% B 14 (bronze): 74/25 McCain, 78% W Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on June 26, 2011, 03:18:36 PM Given Muon's comments about the De Grandy decision and the recent Louisiana preclearance, it seems pretty likely that 10-4 with an attack on Barrow will be ruled constitutional. It's possible to get the 12th up to 56% McCain while keeping the 1st, 8th and 10th all at 59/60 without any of the squiggly stuff courts don't like on the borders among these districts, and without any major modifications to the rest of the state. I think this is much more likely than the attack on Bishop discussed earlier in the thread, which would require one of the GOP incumbents to get a much less white district. With all incumbent residences in the district of the same number and the new 14th district in the region of the redistricters' Hall County base: () (All race numbers VAP) 1 (blue): 59/41 McCain, 65% W 2 (forest green): 61/39 Obama, 51% B 3 (purple): 65/34 McCain, 72% W 4 (red): 80/19 Obama, 52% B 5 (yellow): 81/18 Obama, 51% B 6 (dark green north Atlanta): 60/39 McCain, 66% W 7 (grey): 66/33 McCain, 69% W 8 (purply-blue): 60/40 McCain, 64% W 9 (pale blue NW): 70/28 McCain, 84% W 10 (pink): 60/39 McCain, 71% W 11 (light green): 60/39 McCain, 65% W 12 (pale blue central): 56/44 McCain, 61% W (currently D+1) 13 (beige): 70/29 Obama, 57% B 14 (bronze): 74/25 McCain, 78% W Not a bad plan. Now you just need to unpack the bronze district. You can do that by giving it part of the blueing areas of north Fulton, or by diving it down into central Gwinnett, or by giving it Athens and telling Broun to take a hike by giving him Hall County. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on June 27, 2011, 09:15:15 AM http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-politics-elections/ga-redistricting-maps-may-988985.html
As has been hinted, likely going straight to the court past the DOJ. Georgia Republicans may bypass the Obama Justice Department and go straight to court after they draw new legislative maps this summer. Good punishment for the 2000 map. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on July 11, 2011, 05:39:37 PM A similar map to the above, with a cleaner CD-02.
() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/827/1031n.png/) () (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/163/1031close.png/) Uglier elsewhere though. I don't like the Dekalb split. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 29, 2011, 05:43:37 PM Early scuttlebutt: they're going after Barrow, but shoring up Bishop. (http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2011/07/29/u-s-rep-john-barrow-to-be-shoved-out-of-savannah/?cxntfid=blogs_political_insider_jim_galloway&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on July 29, 2011, 07:25:05 PM Full disclosure: Jim, this is not the real GA GOP map. This is the map I drew as my estimate of what GA Republicans might do in my May book, “Better Know a District.” – David Wasserman, Cook Political Report.
A good thing too because that map stinks! Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on July 29, 2011, 07:32:30 PM Early scuttlebutt: they're going after Barrow, but shoring up Bishop. (http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2011/07/29/u-s-rep-john-barrow-to-be-shoved-out-of-savannah/?cxntfid=blogs_political_insider_jim_galloway&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter) Looks like "influential Georgia Republicans" use Dave's Redistricting App! :D The analysis at the link is right, though. The seventh district will definitely be made safer than that. Kingston and Broun's districts also look a bit too marginal compared to what the GOP probably wants, but I'm not sure on that; I'll check PVI on the App later. edit- hadn't seen krazen's post. That explains that. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: nclib on July 30, 2011, 08:14:24 PM Georgia has 180 State House districts. How many white liberal seats can be drawn? I have 7. Two in Athens, two in the white part of northern Atlanta, two in DeKalb and one that kind of straddles the border between Atlanta and DeKalb. I haven't finished yet so who knows if there's white liberal enclaves in Savannah or whatever. What's with Decatur? I have a 66% white seat around there that was almost 78% for Obama, this is the best performance among whites I've seen for Obama in the state. Can a white liberal Congressional seat be drawn in the Atlanta area? Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: they don't love you like i love you on July 30, 2011, 10:33:43 PM Best you could do is something like this:
() 56.8% white VAP and 58.1% Obama. I padded it with a few uber-black precincts in Atlanta granted, remove those and you can get around 58.3% white VAP and 56.7% Obama. Keep in mind though that this seat would also have a notable Asian and Hispanic population and is only about 20% black VAP, so it's not like the type of seat that is like 56% white and 42% black in which case 58.1% Obama still shows uber-Republican whites. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Miles on July 30, 2011, 11:55:41 PM Here's a solid 9-5 R map. I don't know why Republicans wouldn't want to draw delegation like this. They'd have to concede 2 non-Atlanta Democratic seats, but they'd have 9 seats that Democrats could never win.
() GA-01 [Purple] 62.8/36.4 McCain (R+17) GA-02 [Green ] 56.4/43.0 Obama (D+3) GA-03 [Blue ] 63.0/36.0 McCain (R+17) GA-04 [Yellow] 78.2/21.1 Obama (D+25) 52.0% black VAP GA-05 [Teal] 82.1/17.2 Obama (D+29) 54.1% black VAP GA-06 [Crimson] 64.2/34.6 McCain (R+18) GA-07 [Silver] 60.2/38.9 McCain (R+14) GA-08 [Red ] 61.1/38.2 McCain (R+15) GA-09 [Navy] 71.4/27.3 McCain (R+25) GA-10 [Pink] 64.3/34.7 McCain (R+18) GA-11 [Lime] 62.7/36.0 McCain (R+17) GA-12 [Turquoise] 60.0/39.2 Obama (D+7) GA-13 [Salmon] 65.5/33.6 Obama (D+13) 48.3% black VAP GA-14 [OliveDrab] 72.2/26.5 McCain (R+26) Broun would be drawn out of his district because Athens was needed to pack GA-12. He'd still be ok running in GA-10. I'm not sure if I drew Jack Kingston out of GA-01, again, I packed most of Savannah into GA-12, but his new district would be rather familiar territory for him. There really aren't any marginal seats; I don't see any districts flipping over the 10 years. The weakest Republican seat is 60.2% McCain; decidedly out of reach for Democrats. Conversely, Sanford Bishop has the weakest Democratic seat. He rode out 2010 in a less favorable district, so he could hang around until 2020 if he wanted. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: lowtech redneck on August 05, 2011, 09:05:54 AM Exactly; Decatur is not culturally Southern at all. I don't think I would take the description that far (liberal white Southerners still typically identify with Southern culture, as do most Southern blacks). But yeah, Decauter whites are pretty 'liberal' overall; its commonly referred to by local detractors (such as myself) as 'The People's Republic of Decauter'. To give people an idea, they actually mandate a specific (and inferior) brand of garbage bag be used (presumably for environmental reasons), or else they won't pick it up. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on August 08, 2011, 08:52:30 PM http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-politics-elections/democratic-leader-accuses-gop-1088555.html
Republicans who are controlling the process, she said, plan to create 49 "majority-minority" House districts, an increase of seven over the current configuration. "They accomplished this by purging the state of Georgia of white Democrats," Abrams, who is black, said. "Almost without exception in the Fulton-DeKalb area, if you are a white Democrat who is near an African-American, you were paired and you are going to have to run against one another. Amusing! Suddenly the Democrats don't believe in minority districts again. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: BigSkyBob on August 08, 2011, 09:31:41 PM http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-politics-elections/democratic-leader-accuses-gop-1088555.html Republicans who are controlling the process, she said, plan to create 49 "majority-minority" House districts, an increase of seven over the current configuration. "They accomplished this by purging the state of Georgia of white Democrats," Abrams, who is black, said. "Almost without exception in the Fulton-DeKalb area, if you are a white Democrat who is near an African-American, you were paired and you are going to have to run against one another. Amusing! Suddenly the Democrats don't believe in minority districts again. The Fulton-DeKalb area did not have the robust growth of the outer suburbs, so some seats had to be eliminated. It is a neat trick to claim "regression" if a Black seat is eliminated, while pleading the "purging of White Democrats" if no Black seats are eliminated. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on August 08, 2011, 09:42:47 PM http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-politics-elections/democratic-leader-accuses-gop-1088555.html Republicans who are controlling the process, she said, plan to create 49 "majority-minority" House districts, an increase of seven over the current configuration. "They accomplished this by purging the state of Georgia of white Democrats," Abrams, who is black, said. "Almost without exception in the Fulton-DeKalb area, if you are a white Democrat who is near an African-American, you were paired and you are going to have to run against one another. Amusing! Suddenly the Democrats don't believe in minority districts again. The Fulton-DeKalb area did not have the robust growth of the outer suburbs, so some seats had to be eliminated. It is a neat trick to claim "regression" if a Black seat is eliminated, while pleading the "purging of White Democrats" if no Black seats are eliminated. Yes sir! At least 4 districts in the Senate (1 in Atlanta, 1 in Dekalb, 2 in South Georgia) should all be dissolved and relocated to the growing suburbs. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on August 09, 2011, 04:30:29 PM I could easily see the Republicans doing something like this for the Congressional map:
() 1st: 56.1% R, 64.1% white 2nd: 60.5% D, 50.9% black 3rd: 64.6% R, 69.8% white 4th: 80.7% D, 51.7% black 5th: 76.3% D, 52.6% black 6th: 59.9% R, 66.7% white 7th: 57.9% R, 51.2% white 8th: 61.5% R, 65.1% white 9th: 71.0% R, 84.7% white 10th: 61.7% R, 73.7% white 11th: 65.1% R, 72.5% white 12th: 54.6% R, 58.8% white 13th: 71.0% D, 57.8% black 14th: 74.3% R, 81.7% white Barrow's district loses a quarter of his black voters and they're replaced with the Augusta suburbs. Barrow's also cut out of his own district, so he'd have to move to Augusta or run in the 1st District. A Kingston-Barrow race would be slightly risky for the GOP, considering the district is made much more marginal with the inclusion of the black parts of Savannah, but it's still a R+10 district so Kingston should be fine (the new 12th district is R+10 as well). Woodall's district might become more marginal later in the decade but he's apparently pushing hard to have a Gwinnett-only district; in this map the 7th is R + 17 so he's secure for a while. Ultimately, a 10-4 map, with the four Democratic districts being VRA seats and all Republican districts being R +20 or more except Kingston's and Barrow's current districts, both R+10, but that's required to eliminate Barrow. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on August 09, 2011, 04:51:35 PM Shouldn't that last line say "both R+10, but" instead of "both R+20, but"? ;)
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Verily on August 09, 2011, 05:01:21 PM I think that's mostly realistic, but that GA-07 is risky. Not in 2012, but by 2018 or 2020... Gwinnett County is changing fast, and the Georgia Republicans know it. They'll split it up across districts.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Miles on August 09, 2011, 05:07:56 PM Would your GA-02 be considered Racial Gerrymandering?
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario) on August 09, 2011, 05:23:37 PM Would your GA-02 be considered Racial Gerrymandering? I don't see how. It's more compact than most black-majority districts, and for the most part respects county boundaries. I don't see how they could uphold something like NC-12 and toss out this version of GA-2. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on August 09, 2011, 05:39:51 PM Would your GA-02 be considered Racial Gerrymandering? I don't see how. It's more compact than most black-majority districts, and for the most part respects county boundaries. I don't see how they could uphold something like NC-12 and toss out this version of GA-2. A GA-02 that splits Macon along racial lines like that (along with other counties) has already been rejected in Georgia district court. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on August 09, 2011, 06:10:45 PM Shouldn't that last line say "both R+10, but" instead of "both R+20, but"? ;) Corrected :P I think that's mostly realistic, but that GA-07 is risky. Not in 2012, but by 2018 or 2020... Gwinnett County is changing fast, and the Georgia Republicans know it. They'll split it up across districts. Strategically speaking they should do it, of course, but I'm not sure at this point if they will. Georgia's redistricting session meets next week so we'll have a better idea at what the GOP wants to do then. Would your GA-02 be considered Racial Gerrymandering? Well, not nearly bad enough to be an unlawful gerrymander. Would your GA-02 be considered Racial Gerrymandering? I don't see how. It's more compact than most black-majority districts, and for the most part respects county boundaries. I don't see how they could uphold something like NC-12 and toss out this version of GA-2. A GA-02 that splits Macon along racial lines like that (along with other counties) has already been rejected in Georgia district court. Curious here. What case? Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on August 09, 2011, 06:14:41 PM Oh, wait, you're talking about Miller v. Johnson, doh.
I think this is much worse than my 2nd district: () Also the map-makers could just claim it's incumbency protection, which is perfectly permissible. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Verily on August 09, 2011, 06:24:26 PM More importantly, Miller v. Johnson was decided at a time when the preferred black candidate could genuinely win a 40% black district in that area, so drawing a 55% black seat and a 30% black seat denied blacks the ability to elect their preferred candidates in two different seats. Not any more.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: BigSkyBob on August 10, 2011, 01:35:13 AM More importantly, Miller v. Johnson was decided at a time when the preferred black candidate could genuinely win a 40% black district in that area, so drawing a 55% black seat and a 30% black seat denied blacks the ability to elect their preferred candidates in two different seats. Not any more. Which 40% Black seats in the deep South have a Black representative again? When the VRA was passed, it was assumed the Democrat nominee would win just about every seat in the deep South. The VRA was passed to stop the "cracking" of Blacks so that a Black nominee could win. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on August 10, 2011, 03:52:07 AM Which 40% Black seats in the deep South have a Black representative again? Sanford Bishop won the 2nd District after the post- Miller v. Johnson 1995 redistricting; at the time it was 60% white. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Verily on August 10, 2011, 06:44:24 AM Which 40% Black seats in the deep South have a Black representative again? Sanford Bishop won the 2nd District after the post- Miller v. Johnson 1995 redistricting; at the time it was 60% white. Also, preferred black candidate =/= black person. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on August 10, 2011, 09:15:42 AM Oh, wait, you're talking about Miller v. Johnson, doh. I think this is much worse than my 2nd district: () Also the map-makers could just claim it's incumbency protection, which is perfectly permissible. That it certainly is. Whether it is in the GOP's best interest to create such a district for the perpetually 'barely winning' Bishop is another question. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on August 10, 2011, 09:42:21 AM A safe district for Bishop is definitely in the best interest of the GOP; they need a Democratic vote sink down there because without one Austin Scott and/or Westmoreland would be at risk.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on August 10, 2011, 01:48:54 PM Here's my best effort for a 11-3 plan...
() 1st: R+9, 64% white 2nd: R+8, 58% white 3rd: R+13, 64% white 4th: D+20, 50% black 5th: D+26, 59% black 6th: R+13, 65% white 7th: R+16, 61% white 8th: R+8, 59% white 9th: R+22, 80% white 10th: R+13, 71% white 11th: R+16, 69% white 12th: R+7, 61% white 13th: D+16, 55% black 14th: R+26, 83% white (edit: PVI's are approximations because I dun goof'd; see next post) Dubious legality, I think, under the VRA. Bishop and Barrow both get cut out of their districts; the new 2nd and 12th favor the GOP but could still go Democratic in a bad year. The 8th district would see a Bishop vs. Austin Scott fight where the latter would be favored, but still under significant risk. The Kingston vs. Barrow matchup happens like in my other map. The 3rd, 10th, and possibly even the 6th could all be at risk in a bad year later in the decade: Westmoreland would hate Macon being placed into his district, and would also have to deal with Coweta and Fayette trending to the left later in the decade; Broun would hate getting a second college town put into his district (GCSU in Milledgeville) and would face unfriendly trends in Henry, Newton, and Spaulding. Tom Price is a bit more insulated from demographic change thanks to the higher property values in north Fulton (Alpharetta/Roswell/etc.), but I've always considered it inevitable that Buckhead will eventually start voting Democratic like similar neighborhoods on the East Side of Atlanta already do. So, yeah. A 11R-3D map that would possibly be a stable but could just as easily have 10D-4R delegation later in the decade. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Verily on August 10, 2011, 03:11:13 PM You're overstating the PVIs in your calculation. PVI isn't Democratic minus Republican (or the reverse); it's the difference between one party's vote and the most recent result. The absolute maximum Democratic PVI, using 2008 as a base, is D+47; the absolute maximum Republican PVI is R+53.
On the assumption that 2008 was 53D-47R, a 60D-40R seat is D+7, not D+20 or D+14. A 60R-40D seat is R+13, not R+20 or R+26. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on August 10, 2011, 04:13:31 PM You're overstating the PVIs in your calculation. PVI isn't Democratic minus Republican (or the reverse); it's the difference between one party's vote and the most recent result. The absolute maximum Democratic PVI, using 2008 as a base, is D+47; the absolute maximum Republican PVI is R+53. On the assumption that 2008 was 53D-47R, a 60D-40R seat is D+7, not D+20 or D+14. A 60R-40D seat is R+13, not R+20 or R+26. Haha, wow, thanks Verily. All these years I've been entirely misunderstood what PVI meant. All I can think to say is, "derp." Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: muon2 on August 10, 2011, 07:19:25 PM You're overstating the PVIs in your calculation. PVI isn't Democratic minus Republican (or the reverse); it's the difference between one party's vote and the most recent result. The absolute maximum Democratic PVI, using 2008 as a base, is D+47; the absolute maximum Republican PVI is R+53. On the assumption that 2008 was 53D-47R, a 60D-40R seat is D+7, not D+20 or D+14. A 60R-40D seat is R+13, not R+20 or R+26. Haha, wow, thanks Verily. All these years I've been entirely misunderstood what PVI meant. All I can think to say is, "derp." More accurately the PVI (or Cook PVI after its originator) is found by taking the average of the last two presidential elections considering only the two party vote. The PVI then measures the difference between the district and the nation as a whole. Obama took 53.7% of the two party vote nationally, and Bush took 51.2% in 2004. The net is 51.3% for the Dems for the two cycles. A district's current PVI comes by comparing the district average to a baseline of 51.3% Dem. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on August 10, 2011, 08:43:44 PM Here's my best effort for a 11-3 plan... () 1st: R+9, 64% white 2nd: R+8, 58% white 3rd: R+13, 64% white 4th: D+20, 50% black 5th: D+26, 59% black 6th: R+13, 65% white 7th: R+16, 61% white 8th: R+8, 59% white 9th: R+22, 80% white 10th: R+13, 71% white 11th: R+16, 69% white 12th: R+7, 61% white 13th: D+16, 55% black 14th: R+26, 83% white (edit: PVI's are approximations because I dun goof'd; see next post) Dubious legality, I think, under the VRA. Bishop and Barrow both get cut out of their districts; the new 2nd and 12th favor the GOP but could still go Democratic in a bad year. The 8th district would see a Bishop vs. Austin Scott fight where the latter would be favored, but still under significant risk. The Kingston vs. Barrow matchup happens like in my other map. The 3rd, 10th, and possibly even the 6th could all be at risk in a bad year later in the decade: Westmoreland would hate Macon being placed into his district, and would also have to deal with Coweta and Fayette trending to the left later in the decade; Broun would hate getting a second college town put into his district (GCSU in Milledgeville) and would face unfriendly trends in Henry, Newton, and Spaulding. Tom Price is a bit more insulated from demographic change thanks to the higher property values in north Fulton (Alpharetta/Roswell/etc.), but I've always considered it inevitable that Buckhead will eventually start voting Democratic like similar neighborhoods on the East Side of Atlanta already do. So, yeah. A 11R-3D map that would possibly be a stable but could just as easily have 10D-4R delegation later in the decade. I would consider sacrificing compactness, in favor of, say, swapping Hall and Clarke Counties. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on August 10, 2011, 09:20:16 PM I would consider sacrificing compactness, in favor of, say, swapping Hall and Clarke Counties. Not realistic. The state leadership won't do anything that could marginalize its Hall County CD pet project, especially not for Broun of all people. Besides, such a swap would be unforgivably ugly unless you cut into the northern part of that 12th district, and doing so would essentially be granting it to Barrow. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on August 11, 2011, 09:18:51 AM http://savannahnow.com/news/2011-08-10/kingston-okay-district-including-all-chatham-if-it-keeps-its-military-bases
Kingston is willing to take Chatham and Effingham. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Brittain33 on August 11, 2011, 10:26:51 AM http://savannahnow.com/news/2011-08-10/kingston-okay-district-including-all-chatham-if-it-keeps-its-military-bases Kingston is willing to take Chatham and Effingham. Next challenge is for someone to draw a map that does that and keeps all four bases in. How hard can that be, if they're willing to make the lines wonky? It's not like Austin Scott's district is going to become that much more competitive. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: dpmapper on August 11, 2011, 11:25:45 AM http://savannahnow.com/news/2011-08-10/kingston-okay-district-including-all-chatham-if-it-keeps-its-military-bases Kingston is willing to take Chatham and Effingham. Next challenge is for someone to draw a map that does that and keeps all four bases in. How hard can that be, if they're willing to make the lines wonky? It's not like Austin Scott's district is going to become that much more competitive. It's really quite easy, and looks reasonable too. You just have to avoid going too far inland until you reach the Florida border. Statesboro, Waycross, Jesup - all of them should be in other districts. Result is about a 56% McCain district. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on August 11, 2011, 12:58:45 PM ()
Done very easily. I kept Waycross in the district to minimize county splits and because it looked uglier without it. The district's 54.9% McCain, 44.4% Obama. Cook PVI: R+7. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: lowtech redneck on August 11, 2011, 03:30:07 PM Done very easily. I kept Waycross in the district to minimize county splits and because it looked uglier without it. The district's 54.9% McCain, 44.4% Obama. Cook PVI: R+7. What's the population and Republican voting percentage of the portion of Lowndes County you included? Kingston would probably prefer a district with a higher probability of remaing safe in 10 years in the event that Savannah takes off economically and attracts more out-of-state migrants, so I was wondering whether the rural counties further inland would be a better fit (assuming the Republicans can make up the difference elsewhere to take down Barrow). Thanks, btw; I just got into amateur redistricting (I still have a lot more to learn, not to mention precint-level data to acquire), and your maps have been very helpful. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario) on August 11, 2011, 04:12:03 PM ()
A slight alteration to Bacon King's plan gets the district up to 56.9% McCain. What's the population and Republican voting percentage of the portion of Lowndes County you included? Kingston would probably prefer a district with a higher probability of remaing safe in 10 years in the event that Savannah takes off economically and attracts more out-of-state migrants, so I was wondering whether the rural counties further inland would be a better fit (assuming the Republicans can make up the difference elsewhere to take down Barrow). Thanks, btw; I just got into amateur redistricting (I still have a lot more to learn, not to mention precint-level data to acquire), and your maps have been very helpful. In my plan, the Lowndes County portion has a population of 56,923 and voted 73.4% for McCain. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on August 11, 2011, 05:18:48 PM What's the population and Republican voting percentage of the portion of Lowndes County you included? That part of Lowndes County has 48,463 people, is 64.2% white, and voted 61.2% for McCain. Only the two precincts on the district boundary east of Valdosta proper voted for Obama (which I included in the district for aesthetic reasons and to get the population up to quota without needing another county split). Quote Kingston would probably prefer a district with a higher probability of remaing safe in 10 years in the event that Savannah takes off economically and attracts more out-of-state migrants, so I was wondering whether the rural counties further inland would be a better fit (assuming the Republicans can make up the difference elsewhere to take down Barrow). Unless the map is a gerrymandered monstrosity I don't see how Barrow can go down without pushing his district out of Chatham entirely. I mean, it's entirely possible that the GOP could play it safe with a 9-5 split (or target Bishop instead, but that's a lot riskier for Austin Scott's district plus there's potential VRA legal issues). If they want to target Barrow though, and they do of course, it can't be done without pushing his district out of Chatham. And yeah, Kingston would definitely be safer with more Republican counties like Wayne, Brantley, Pierce, etc., but he's insisted on keeping Moody AFB in his district, which is in the northeast corner of Lowndes. I'm assuming he's eyeing the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee as his next step towards Chairman of Appropriations, which he wants really badly. Quote Thanks, btw; I just got into amateur redistricting (I still have a lot more to learn, not to mention precint-level data to acquire), and your maps have been very helpful. Of course, and thank you! Always great to have more people involved around here. If you haven't discovered it yet, Dave's redistricting app (http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/launchapp.html) is the perfect tool to use. It has precinct-level Census 2010 data for every state, and precinct-level election data for about half the states. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on August 12, 2011, 12:07:25 PM Legislative maps!
http://www.legis.ga.gov/Joint/reapportionment/en-US/default.aspx On the senate map, 2 black Democrats cannibalized this guy in the Columbus/Albany area. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hooks Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario) on August 12, 2011, 12:43:07 PM On the senate map, 2 black Democrats cannibalized this guy in the Columbus/Albany area. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hooks Apparently he's the ranking member of the Appropriations Committee, as well as co-chair of the joint Senate-House Budgetary Responsibility Oversight Committee. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: dpmapper on August 12, 2011, 12:59:24 PM Legislative maps! http://www.legis.ga.gov/Joint/reapportionment/en-US/default.aspx On the senate map, 2 black Democrats cannibalized this guy in the Columbus/Albany area. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hooks The GOP was pretty gentle on the senate map. Hooks is the only Dem they seem to have destroyed (the last white Dem outside the ATL metro, no?). They also have two swing seats around northern Atlanta (6 & 40; currently split between parties) even though they could have tilted them further pretty easily. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on August 12, 2011, 01:08:22 PM Tough to see.
The southern portion of Cobb County (district 6, held by a Dem) was chopped and thrown in with the expansion of the Atlanta black districts. District 6 now routes into Sandy Springs. I don't see how the Democrats hold that one. Doug Stoner is also white. http://www.senate.ga.gov/senators/en-US/member.aspx?Member=45&Session=21 Democrats should hold the 15 black seats, as well as SD-33 (Cobb), SD-42 (Dekalb), and SD-5 (Gwinnett). That gives them 18 total or 32% of seats. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: dpmapper on August 12, 2011, 01:43:06 PM Tough to see. The southern portion of Cobb County (district 6, held by a Dem) was chopped and thrown in with the expansion of the Atlanta black districts. District 6 now routes into Sandy Springs. I don't see how the Democrats hold that one. Doug Stoner is also white. http://www.senate.ga.gov/senators/en-US/member.aspx?Member=45&Session=21 Democrats should hold the 15 black seats, as well as SD-33 (Cobb), SD-42 (Dekalb), and SD-5 (Gwinnett). That gives them 18 total or 32% of seats. OK, so D6 was solid Dem and now is a swingy seat, slight lean R - I mapped it in DRA and it went about 50-51% McCain. D40 was also about 51% McCain; dunno how safe it was previously. I guess this means Republicans gain 1.5 seats... just on the cusp of a veto-proof majority. PS. You missed the "outside the Atlanta metro" part of my post. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on August 12, 2011, 02:07:33 PM Tough to see. The southern portion of Cobb County (district 6, held by a Dem) was chopped and thrown in with the expansion of the Atlanta black districts. District 6 now routes into Sandy Springs. I don't see how the Democrats hold that one. Doug Stoner is also white. http://www.senate.ga.gov/senators/en-US/member.aspx?Member=45&Session=21 Democrats should hold the 15 black seats, as well as SD-33 (Cobb), SD-42 (Dekalb), and SD-5 (Gwinnett). That gives them 18 total or 32% of seats. OK, so D6 was solid Dem and now is a swingy seat, slight lean R - I mapped it in DRA and it went about 50-51% McCain. D40 was also about 51% McCain; dunno how safe it was previously. I guess this means Republicans gain 1.5 seats... just on the cusp of a veto-proof majority. PS. You missed the "outside the Atlanta metro" part of my post. Ah, yes, I see that. I was just posting a general musing about the map rather than any specific response to your post. I do not know why the Democrats did not sent the black areas of Dekalb County north into the white liberal areas of Dekalb County rather than south into Newton, Rockdale, and Henry Counties. Those areas could have been cracked. It seems like District 42 could have been vaporized. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: lowtech redneck on August 12, 2011, 02:53:32 PM And yeah, Kingston would definitely be safer with more Republican counties like Wayne, Brantley, Pierce, etc., but he's insisted on keeping Moody AFB in his district, which is in the northeast corner of Lowndes. I'm assuming he's eyeing the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee as his next step towards Chairman of Appropriations, which he wants really badly. If you haven't discovered it yet, Dave's redistricting app (http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/launchapp.html) is the perfect tool to use. It has precinct-level Census 2010 data for every state, and precinct-level election data for about half the states. Thanks! And yeah, I didn't realize where Moody AFB was (I kinda assumed it was near Hunter Army Airfield); it seems that Kingston's ambitions might be putting the long-term electoral security of his district at risk. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: lowtech redneck on August 16, 2011, 06:58:19 PM Given the limitations of Dave's redistricting app, what percentage of deviation between the populations of congressional districts is considered reasonable on this forum? For instance, my current Georgia effort has deviations ranging from a 2,782 surplus in 4th District to a 2,703 deficit in the 13th District.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario) on August 16, 2011, 07:04:55 PM Given the limitations of Dave's redistricting app, what percentage of deviation between the populations of congressional districts is considered reasonable on this forum? For instance, my current Georgia effort has deviations ranging from a 2,782 surplus in 4th District to a 2,703 deficit in the 13th District. I try to keep the deviations below 200. That can be quite difficult depending on the area, but it's usually possible. Personally, I wouldn't accept a deviation above 500 unless you're doing a state like Arkansas or West Virginia where county splits are prohibited. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: lowtech redneck on August 16, 2011, 08:00:41 PM Given the limitations of Dave's redistricting app, what percentage of deviation between the populations of congressional districts is considered reasonable on this forum? For instance, my current Georgia effort has deviations ranging from a 2,782 surplus in 4th District to a 2,703 deficit in the 13th District. I try to keep the deviations below 200. That can be quite difficult depending on the area, but it's usually possible. Personally, I wouldn't accept a deviation above 500 unless you're doing a state like Arkansas or West Virginia where county splits are prohibited. Ouch. But wouldn't a percentage-based standard make more sense? A 200-500 deviation would be more significant in some states than in others. Basically, I'm wondering at what approximate percentage point it would be assumed on this forum that the final shape and composition of a CD would become noticably different after neighborhood by neighborhood trade-offs at the sub-precint level occur? Would less than a percentage point in deviation-and less than half a percentage of surplus or deficit-be generally considered insufficient to that goal? Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 16, 2011, 08:20:20 PM I keep deviations under 1,000; if it's really low, good, but without the ability to split precincts, it seems pointless to worry about getting lower deviations than that.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on August 16, 2011, 09:36:01 PM Given the limitations of Dave's redistricting app, what percentage of deviation between the populations of congressional districts is considered reasonable on this forum? For instance, my current Georgia effort has deviations ranging from a 2,782 surplus in 4th District to a 2,703 deficit in the 13th District. Georgia's current map was drawn with a maximum deviation of 0.01%; under 2010 census numbers that'd be plus or minus seventy people. When I draw my maps I keep deviation under 500 though I'll make it less than that if I can. Also, everyone, as an aside, note that Georgia law limits splitting precincts between districts unless it's absolutely necessary for population equality- I only know of four precinct splits in the current map (one each in Lowndes, Newton, Henry, and Baldwin Counties). Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: lowtech redneck on August 17, 2011, 01:01:07 AM Also, everyone, as an aside, note that Georgia law limits splitting precincts between districts unless it's absolutely necessary for population equality- I only know of four precinct splits in the current map (one each in Lowndes, Newton, Henry, and Baldwin Counties). Ouch again. Well, back to the old drawing board... I think I'll follow JohnnyLongtorso's advice in general, though; anything more would probably be too frustrating for me right now. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on August 22, 2011, 01:29:58 PM http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2011/08/22/john-barrow-moved-out-of-savannah-tom-price-gets-only-a-piece-of-buckhead-in-new-maps/
10-4, albiet not a very well done 10-4. BK did a very good job at matching the 1st draft. Very very rough approximations. CD-1: 55.5% McCain/54.2% Republican CD-2: 41.3/40.7 CD-3: 64.6/63.8 CD-4: 24.1/28.7 CD-5: 12.9/16.8 CD-6: 59.9/62.7 CD-7: 60.2/63.5 CD-8: 61.5/57.9 CD-9: 72.8/68.8 (new) CD-10: 59.2/58.6 CD-11: 64.2/65.2 CD-12: 55.6/54.4 CD-13: 37.0/39.4 CD-14: 69.8/65.7 CD-13 is just a really lousy district. They seemed to put a bunch of white precincts in there guessing that blacks will move in. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Miles on August 22, 2011, 02:20:09 PM Could Barrow possibly challenge Kingston in the new 1st? Kingston took a considerable PVI downgrade; 55.5% McCain down from 62%.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on August 22, 2011, 02:47:02 PM He could try. Kingston held a district like that in the 1990s. In 1996 he won it by 36 points.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on August 22, 2011, 03:03:16 PM A few observations.
CD-13 is just a really lousy district. They seemed to put a bunch of white precincts in there guessing that blacks will move in. They probably wanted to keep the black percentage of the district too high to prevent any possible "packing" VRA lawsuits. And anyway, those probably are the precincts black will move into. :P Could Barrow possibly challenge Kingston in the new 1st? Kingston took a considerable PVI downgrade; 55.5% McCain down from 62%. Possibly. It's basically the same PVI as the new 12th, though, and in that district he won't have to race against an incumbent in unfamiliar territory. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 22, 2011, 05:41:43 PM You'd probably need a Jim Marshall type to win GA-01; Barrow's current district has terrible black turnout in off-years, but it was an Obama district in 2008.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: they don't love you like i love you on August 22, 2011, 06:13:46 PM And in an alternate universe where Barnes was elected Governor last year and the Democrats miraculously managed to hold the legislature the whole decade:
() () GA-01: Uber-GOP rural north Georgia seat. Graves wins easily. GA-02: Uber-GOP exurban district. Appears to be open, should have an interesting primary. GA-03: Broun doesn't live here, but he'd probably run here, it's not too different from his current seat minus Athens, he'd just have to move to suburban Augusta. 68% McCain. GA-04: Kind of a leftovers district, it's basically exurbs + rural counties the Democrats wouldn't want in other seats, but it fits Gingrey pretty well with his current seat. 63.7% McCain and safe GOP. GA-05: Another generic suburban Republican seat, 62.6% seat. Tom Price would most likely hold it. GA-06: Here we have kind of a hodgepodge of types of Democrats, blacks and Hispanics in the more rundown parts of Cobb County, a chunk of Atlanta including the white liberal area, and blacks in southwest DeKalb. 44.1% black VAP. Kind of resembles Scott's current seat in demographics, but Lewis fits it better geographically. Over 70% Obama. GA-07: Tons of blacks in Atlanta and southern Fulton + some generic rural counties. 54.6% black, yet only 65.9% Obama, still enough to be safe Dem, Scott no doubt wins. GA-08: Blacks + white liberals in DeKalb + some suburban Republicans to dilute them. 52% black VAP, and Obama's best seat with 75.9%. Johnson wins. GA-09: Here we start having fun. Athens adds the minority parts of Gwinnett and the Hispanics in northern DeKalb. 52.9% Obama because it still has to cut through some Republican parts, but Woodall would need a very strong personal vote to hang on. GA-10: Augusta to Savannah. Probably Barrow's new seat. 54% Obama. GA-11: 50.4% Obama, so not exactly a strong seat to guaranteed to be held in a year with bad black turnout. However this is also perfect for a Jim Marshall comeback if he has any interest, he could probably hold it in a year with no so great black turnout too due to blue dog appeal. GA-12: Bishop's new seat, 42.9% black VAP, 52.5% Obama. GA-13: 64.4% McCain pack seat, held by either Kingston or that guy who beat Marshall. GA-14: The same, 62.8% McCain. If Kingston lives in Savannah he has to move obviously, but this seat would like him. So 7-7 most likely, could go to 8-6 or 9-5 if the blacks stay home, but the GOP incumbents would require some serious skills to hold. GA-09 would also no doubt increase its D PVI as the decade went on, so even if Woodall hung on, he'd need a perfect storm every election since. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on August 22, 2011, 08:25:36 PM A few observations.
CD-13 is just a really lousy district. They seemed to put a bunch of white precincts in there guessing that blacks will move in. They probably wanted to keep the black percentage of the district too high to prevent any possible "packing" VRA lawsuits. And anyway, those probably are the precincts black will move into. :P Could Barrow possibly challenge Kingston in the new 1st? Kingston took a considerable PVI downgrade; 55.5% McCain down from 62%. Possibly. It's basically the same PVI as the new 12th, though, and in that district he won't have to race against an incumbent in unfamiliar territory. Hmph. Why not put all of Forscythe into CD-7 then? It can use those areas and drop the Pickneyville area into a black district, and the combined black districts can then ditch the white areas in CD-13. CD-13 is only 54% or so black and much less than CD-5 and CD-4. It certainly has room to be packed in. You called it of course, but that Hall County district is quite irritating and uses strength that can be had in CD-12. Still the map likely gets the job done. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: they don't love you like i love you on August 22, 2011, 08:33:22 PM The other purpose of that Forsyth split is to solve the "Gwinnett problem" that isn't an issue now but would be in a decade. The demographic trend in that county is not favorable to the GOP. The other demographic trends mean they don't have to worry about anything statewide but a Gwinnett-based seat would be a problem in the future. The chunk of Forsyth negates that.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: lowtech redneck on August 23, 2011, 02:21:12 AM They probably wanted to keep the black percentage of the district too high to prevent any possible "packing" VRA lawsuits. And anyway, those probably are the precincts black will move into. :P Not enough to make a partisan difference within the decade....but you're probably right about the reasons. (On a side note, I wonder why the black middle-class seems to be skipping northern Dekalb in favor of other areas?) The Republicans seem to have done something similar (i.e. anticipating black migration) with the Five Forks Trickum area in Gwinnet, at the cost of keeping a few precints in the seventh district that favor Democrats now instead of in some hypothetical future. They also incorporated several Democratic precints in Dekalb into the sixth district...I can't fathom their reasoning. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on August 25, 2011, 09:38:22 AM Dunwoody is pretty pricey, is it not?
The median income for a household in the CDP was $82,838, and the median income for a family was $100,796. In any case, Deal has signed the legislative maps to increase the GOP majorities. Congressional map was tweaked to make minor changes. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: lowtech redneck on August 25, 2011, 10:42:10 AM Dunwoody is pretty pricey, is it not? The median income for a household in the CDP was $82,838, and the median income for a family was $100,796. I was thinking more about the areas between Dunwoody and south Dekalb, like Doraville and Tucker-places that have seen substantial hispanic growth but relatively lackluster black growth. I guess it could just be a social snowballing effect ("hey, this family member/friend of mine, who happens to be my own ethnicity, just moved to this place and says that its great! Let's move there and say the same thing to other family/friends who are coincidentally the same ethnicity as us!). Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on August 27, 2011, 06:06:37 PM Finally got around to looking up the amended map. Here's a link for anyone that's curious (http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/images/GeorgiaCongPlan2.jpg).
Kingston gets Moody AFB after all, which causes the 1st, 8th, and 12th districts to each rotate a little bit clockwise. The 11th takes in a bit more of Fulton, making the 6th slightly safer. The 3rd gets a bit more of Fayette, at the request of a few state legislators in the area. Dunwoody is pretty pricey, is it not? The median income for a household in the CDP was $82,838, and the median income for a family was $100,796. I was thinking more about the areas between Dunwoody and south Dekalb, like Doraville and Tucker-places that have seen substantial hispanic growth but relatively lackluster black growth. I guess it could just be a social snowballing effect ("hey, this family member/friend of mine, who happens to be my own ethnicity, just moved to this place and says that its great! Let's move there and say the same thing to other family/friends who are coincidentally the same ethnicity as us!). That's definitely true for Hispanics, with the language barrier playing a huge role in it. To give you an overly simplistic answer, blacks aren't moving to Doraville/Tucker/etc. because when someone's moving out into the suburbs it's because of upward social mobility, so they wouldn't be moving into an area that's poorer than the area they left. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: lowtech redneck on August 28, 2011, 07:39:14 AM Finally got around to looking up the amended map. Here's a link for anyone that's curious (http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/images/GeorgiaCongPlan2.jpg). Kingston gets Moody AFB after all, which causes the 1st, 8th, and 12th districts to each rotate a little bit clockwise. The 11th takes in a bit more of Fulton, making the 6th slightly safer. The 3rd gets a bit more of Fayette, at the request of a few state legislators in the area. Dunwoody is pretty pricey, is it not? The median income for a household in the CDP was $82,838, and the median income for a family was $100,796. I was thinking more about the areas between Dunwoody and south Dekalb, like Doraville and Tucker-places that have seen substantial hispanic growth but relatively lackluster black growth. I guess it could just be a social snowballing effect ("hey, this family member/friend of mine, who happens to be my own ethnicity, just moved to this place and says that its great! Let's move there and say the same thing to other family/friends who are coincidentally the same ethnicity as us!). That's definitely true for Hispanics, with the language barrier playing a huge role in it. To give you an overly simplistic answer, blacks aren't moving to Doraville/Tucker/etc. because when someone's moving out into the suburbs it's because of upward social mobility, so they wouldn't be moving into an area that's poorer than the area they left. I'm not so sure that applies to Tucker (which is right next door to me), in relation to nearby areas in south Dekalb: http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bplive/2008/snapshots/PL1377652.html The job growth percentage might explain it, though (ouch!); now I'm wondering why any hispanics want to move here.... Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: BigSkyBob on August 30, 2011, 11:26:28 PM Tomorrow might be final passage. Passed committee today.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/G/GA_GEORGIA_REDISTRICTING_GAOL-?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: BigSkyBob on September 01, 2011, 12:03:21 AM http://www.legis.ga.gov/Joint/reapportionment/Documents/CONGPROP2.html
Passes State Senate, and awaits Governor's signature. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: minionofmidas on October 08, 2011, 05:54:23 AM I somehow completely missed this. Not that the end result is surprising in any way.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on December 26, 2011, 06:14:48 PM http://buckhead.patch.com/articles/lindsey-praises-u-s-approval-of-georgia-redistricting-maps
Precleared. I believe that wraps up the South? SC, NC, MS, AL, LA area all finished. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Yelnoc on December 26, 2011, 07:41:11 PM Ah c'mon. They put me with Barrow and Walton? Really? Really?
>:( Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Mr.Phips on December 26, 2011, 09:40:57 PM Jesus H. Christ, does Obama care a bit about a Democratic majority in the House. What was done in GA-12 clearly turned a black influence district in to one where they have no chance at all.
Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Bacon King on December 26, 2011, 10:14:34 PM Ah c'mon. They put me with Barrow and Walton? Really? Really? >:( Hey now, don't hate on Barrow! :P I think a bigger complaint is that they put both of us in a district that stretches from the Northeast Atlanta suburbs all the way to Vidalia onion country. And the biggest problem is that Paul Broun is now our Congressman :( Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Skill and Chance on December 27, 2011, 12:20:21 AM http://buckhead.patch.com/articles/lindsey-praises-u-s-approval-of-georgia-redistricting-maps Precleared. I believe that wraps up the South? SC, NC, MS, AL, LA area all finished. I would have thought the DOJ would object to GA-12. Rather surprising they didn't. Maybe they feel that GA-02 now provides sufficient opportunity in south GA? Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on December 27, 2011, 10:15:58 AM http://buckhead.patch.com/articles/lindsey-praises-u-s-approval-of-georgia-redistricting-maps Precleared. I believe that wraps up the South? SC, NC, MS, AL, LA area all finished. I would have thought the DOJ would object to GA-12. Rather surprising they didn't. Maybe they feel that GA-02 now provides sufficient opportunity in south GA? Georgia also had a secondary lawsuit in place to overturn S5. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: Yelnoc on December 27, 2011, 04:28:23 PM Ah c'mon. They put me with Barrow and Walton? Really? Really? >:( Hey now, don't hate on Barrow! :P I think a bigger complaint is that they put both of us in a district that stretches from the Northeast Atlanta suburbs all the way to Vidalia onion country. And the biggest problem is that Paul Broun is now our Congressman :( What will happen to Woodall? Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: muon2 on December 27, 2011, 05:19:03 PM http://buckhead.patch.com/articles/lindsey-praises-u-s-approval-of-georgia-redistricting-maps Precleared. I believe that wraps up the South? SC, NC, MS, AL, LA area all finished. I would have thought the DOJ would object to GA-12. Rather surprising they didn't. Maybe they feel that GA-02 now provides sufficient opportunity in south GA? Georgia also had a secondary lawsuit in place to overturn S5. Is that the real reason DOJ has been so accommodating to the southern state review? By accepting the plans it negates any section 5 challenge. Many observers think that the court could be ripe to overturn section 5 and this way DOJ maintains its authority without challenge. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: krazen1211 on December 27, 2011, 07:27:08 PM Georgia also had a secondary lawsuit in place to overturn S5. Is that the real reason DOJ has been so accommodating to the southern state review? By accepting the plans it negates any section 5 challenge. Many observers think that the court could be ripe to overturn section 5 and this way DOJ maintains its authority without challenge. After making a massive stink over the Georgia voter verification laws for over a year, they ended up preclearing the plan in August 2010 in about 24 hours. Georgia then dismissed the lawsuit in that case. Slightly complicating the issue was that Georgia AG Thurbert Baker (who is black, btw) refused to do his job and fight the DOJ, so he was bypassed by Sonny Perdue. http://www.lawyerscommittee.org/projects/voting_rights/page?id=0062 So yeah, they have rolled the DOJ before. Basically the 3 main points of conflict this cycle are South Carolina voter ID, Texas voter ID (which will certainly be withdrawn soon and head to the DC circuit), and Texas redistricting of course. Attorney General Olens is 'bundling' in generic S5 complaint in all his filings now and dismissing the suits after he gets what he wants. Title: Re: US House Redistricting: Georgia Post by: minionofmidas on December 28, 2011, 11:46:57 AM http://buckhead.patch.com/articles/lindsey-praises-u-s-approval-of-georgia-redistricting-maps Precleared. I believe that wraps up the South? SC, NC, MS, AL, LA area all finished. I would have thought the DOJ would object to GA-12. Rather surprising they didn't. Maybe they feel that GA-02 now provides sufficient opportunity in south GA? Georgia also had a secondary lawsuit in place to overturn S5. Is that the real reason DOJ has been so accommodating to the southern state review? By accepting the plans it negates any section 5 challenge. Many observers think that the court could be ripe to overturn section 5 and this way DOJ maintains its authority without challenge. |