Talk Elections

A thread we need to see.

I'll start with a fantasy map. CDs 4, 5, and 6 essentially preserved (4 taking some parishes from 5, 5 and 6 expanding southward), 1 cleaned up with complete disregard to race but respect to political boundaries, 3 distributed between the cleaned-up 2 and 7, which is renumbered 3.
One half of it is actually sort of likely, the other half is utterly impossible - CD3 is 49% White and 41% Black.

()

()

So I failed to draw a satisfactorily Black version of this CD2... I would at the very least have had to nudge into Baton Rouge. More reasonable to go the whole hog and do a completely racial split of BR. CD2 is 61% Black.
This required major counterclockwise shifts of territory. Lake Charles will probably have me hunted down & killed as a warning to real life redistricters.
Though this is actually a very clean map - except for the splits involving CD2, there are only three parish splits (Avoyelles and St Landry, and you could avoid one of those but it just looks buttt-ugly; and Jeff Davis). The western CD is composed wholly of entire parishes. Orleans is still a whole lot cleaner than the current map - but that's partly because it's a whole lot cleaner than Baton Rouge.
Populations are within 1000... and if you move that outermost Algiers precinct to the Cajun CD (it's white and just the right size, but it would be the only New Orleans precinct in there) you're within 400 and all but one district (yellow) within 150.


()

()

()

It looks like Jeff Landry would be happy with that map; the new LA-03 would probably favor him over Charles Boustany.

It seems like the way to ensure Landry takes the hit is to wrap CD-1 down the coast so that CD-1 takes St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parishes.

I just don't know if they do that.

Here's the Jeff Landry hit map.

()

()

CD-1 took most of Lafourche as well because the only reasonable alternative to that was to split Lafayette. New Orleans not quite as cleaned as in the last go; Baton Rouge and the corridor (which is majority Black even in this incarnation) a little cleaner.

I think you may have to take apart CD 6 in order to keep two Cajun districts.

If you do that, the other districts are short (based on 2009 ACS):

CD 4 -97K; CD 5 -112K, total 209K

CD 7 -85K; CD 3 -119K; total 204K

CD 1 -64K; CD 2 -238K; total 302K

Then take CD 2 across Lake Pontchartrain before dropping down onto the Mississippi, but don't go all the way to Baton Rouge so as to leave a gap for CD 5 and CD 3.  Then go north around Hammond pick up the black areas of Hammond, go west (and maybe east) along the Mississippi border, and then come down into Baton Rouge from the north.  You could also go up the Mississippi, perhaps taking whole parishes.

Bring CD 1 to include St Bernard (and New Orleans East, and connect to Jefferson through the current doohickey that comes from Jefferson down to almost Chalmette (the route across Lake Ponchartrain will be blocked).   Then bring CD 3 around the western tip of the part of CD 2 that goes up the Mississippi, and do the same for CD 5.

Perhaps move CD 7 northward a bit as well, which would end up with CD 5 then taking more in the Baton Rouge area.

Not sure what you mean. You certainly don't want to take CD2 to the north shore of Pontchartrain. That's lilywhite posh uberrepublican suburbia there. Also, there are some black suburban areas in southern (populated) Jefferson - south of that weird spike - that you won't want to let go.
Shedding Cassidy's CD6 and letting Landry and Boustany live is probably a workable idea, actually... but only if CD2 is taken into Baton Rouge, as that's pretty much starting the dismemberment already. Then you take CDs4 and 5 east, CD7 north, CD1 west, and CD3 wherever turns out to fit best. I may try that next.

I'm calling it the Rape of Baton Rouge.

()

()

This incarnation of CD2 is 58% Black. I suppose combining the dismantle CD6 idea with the CD1 Eastern Prong idea (from the previous attempt and Jim's suggestion) and connecting New Orleans to St Helena via a string of precincts in western Tangipahoa rather than western Livingston may actually come out minimally less disgusting. Either way though, it has no chance of happening.

Yes, definitely better. And yes, definitely still horrid. Also, back up to 61% Black -  western Tangipahoa (rural parts as well as Hammond) has surprising numbers of Black population. Well, surpising to me, anyhow.

()

Also, in the preceding map technically you couldn't drive from Baton Rouge to the southern parts of CD3 - in both versions the district has the only bridge between Baton Rouge and just above  Laplace - it's just below Donaldsonville, in heavily Afro-American territory. Those two westernmost St James Parish precincts face each other across it. But in the first map the precinct just north of it, which you'd also need to drive from a to b, was in CD2.

So... seeing as dismantling CD6 is just plain ugly... two other ways to preserve two Cajun districts.

Version 1: Steve Scalise's district is packed with Republicans. Share the wealth!

()

()

()

The issue is that it is far from certain that the Cajun part of Landry's district can dominate it, especially as Landry is from New Iberia and Scalise also lives in the district. Worse, with Cajun registration patterns, they might lose the primary and then win the GE with a Melancon revenant as Democratic candidate.

Version 2: That leaves northern Louisiana. Randy Alexander was a Democrat once after all. Can he really be trusted?

()

The issue here is with district safety in a Democratic waveyear, rather than regionalism. The district at risk being... somewhat surprisingly... the northwestern one, which is down to just 59% White. Probably could be helped a little with more creative boundaries, though.

I think Iberville and Pointe Coupee go in the Cajun district.  Will that pull the purple district out of St. Tammany?   Maybe toss in West Baton Rouge for some more population.

It is interesting that the reported percentage of French Ancestry vs French Canadian ancestry has a pretty strong east/west variation, with French Canadian stronger in the west (of Lafayette) vs the east, though French is more common throughout.

About blacks in Tangipahoa, Blacks are about 35% of the current 3 northern districts, and the mid to high 20s in the other districts except the two NOLA districts where they have been deliberately separated.  On that basis, the mark of Zorro district makes sense.  Blacks are too well distributed, vs states like Mississippi or South Carolina.

Are you counting St.Martin as a county split?

Is there a legal requirement to keep county splits low? I'm mostly just avoiding them to a large extent as a matter of personal preference.

Yes, adding Iberville and Pointe Coupee - and Avoyelles, too - to a Cajun seat makes sense.  Splits the state in two, though, leaving too little territory for two seats and far too much for one to the north (considering Lake Charles as non-negotiable). Could probably tweak it by splitting Pointe Coupee. Might try such a map. Wouldn't be enough to get Landry out of North Jefferson and St Tammany though, and yes, given the nature of northern Jefferson I consider the Causeway link indispensable, and the Z clearly inferior and more disruptive - unnatural -  than the Mississippi river link.

Gallot said some coastal legislators are proposing the design of a coastal congressional district that would stretch across the bottom of the state, arguing the parishes have many issues in common, such as hurricane protection and coastal erosion. Currently, two congressional districts contain coastal parishes.

Other lawmakers are arguing to merge north Louisiana parishes -- which are split between two congressional districts -- into one district that contains both Monroe and Shreveport. The chairman of the Senate redistricting committee, Sen. Bob Kostelka, R-Monroe, has said he objects to such a plan, however.

http://house.louisiana.gov/H_Redistricting2011/NewsPDF/1221_10_Gallot_PressClub.pdf

Gallot said something similar to today’s majority black PSC district that runs from New Orleans to
north Baton Rouge, including communities near the Mississippi River, “certainly is a reasonable
footprint to look at.”
Gallot said two north Louisiana-based congressional districts could undergo substantial changes.
The Shreveport-based 4th Congressional District would have to extend to the Gulf of Mexico to pick
up needed population, Gallot said. And, he said, the Monroe-based 5th District would expand to
Plaquemines Parish instead of just to outside Baton Rouge.


I'll have to try to draw that first plan later today. That would effectively combine Boustany and Landry, but the populations of all those southern coastal parishes seem to add up to too much.





If powerful people are keeping both northern districts, and of course Lafayette/Lake Charles together, well, the only district that seems to be left to chop is Cassidy's 6th.

You could probably draw this a couple of ways.  Start out with Lake Charles and Lafayette and then swing down fairly south towards Houma and the bird foot delta.  This opens the Mississippi for CD-2 to get to Baton Rouge.

Thicker in the east, and and narrow in the west, so mostly preserves CD-3, plus Lafayette.  Maybe hard to include Lake Charles, and blocks CD-2.

This is going to be the sticking point.  The north says they get two districts, which means the Cajuns will want two districts.  The blacks have to have a district, which means that there is also a district for the people that aren't black.  So CD-6 is the odd-man out.

If it for feelings being hurt, this might work.  I'm guessing a merged district ends up north of Alexandria.  Which opens a number of possibilities such as a CD-7 becoming a Lake Charles-Alexandria district, with Lafayette shifting to CD-3.

Or perhaps CD-3 takes all of the Atchafalaya basis and extends up to Alexandria.

Or maybe CD-6 extends to Alexandria to make up for the loss of north Baton Rouge.

It is kind of surprising they are talking congressional redistricting.  They need to get legislative redistricting done for this fall.  But because of the open primary for congressional elections is in November 2012, they have until Summer 2012 to finish.  And since they serve 4 year terms, they wouldn't have to worry about the political fallout.

I assume the latter was a bit of hyperbole.

Shreveport-Lake Charles means that Boustany and Landry end up running against each other, but that you go from 2 not so certain Republican seats to one.

There is a pretty strong rivalry between north and south Louisiana, so I could see this one ending up deadlocked.

It's lovely, isn't it. Republicans have full control and still have to screw one of their own. ;D

This is also why they're talking congressional before state house... it's the controversial part.

()

This was my first shot at it.

The problem is you end up over population. You either don't cover the full coast, or you have to split either Calcasieu or Lafayette. Plus I didn't cover St Bernard or all the population in Jefferson that probably should be covered.

Well, technically the same is true in Massachusetts. The difference is they have a senate race and a bunch of old people there who might retire.

I also don't think they're quite as keen on regional interests.

Yes. Democrats are also marginally more used to it... and of course, without the VRA, you might try to eliminate Richmond instead here. Heck, his district is drastically underpopulated.

Probably bring LA-1 down through St.Bernard (most of the population is, or was) just outside New Orleans, and then keep going to Plaquemines if this let's you help get all of Calcasieu and Lafayette.  You could also get the whole of Jefferson in LA-1 or 2, and start the coastal district at Lafourche.

This is the best I could do to keep everyone happy. Well, 5/6 of the state anyway.

()


The Cajuns will be pretty happy here, as will the guys in the red district.

Scalise gets a fairly compact and solid district, but he's safe under any map.

The Republicans in Livingston might cry bloody murder at getting represented by Rodney Alexander, though.

But that's the problem with the 2 cajun/2 north configuration. By definition it means crunching the 6th, but someone has to take that territory.

I can't blame Jindal for running away from this.

Not too bad really.  Change it so the 3 NOLA districts are Purple, Yellow, and Green, with the two that reach up to Baton Rouge, purple and yellow. 

Yep, seems you read the two posts about where additional cajuns live. :) Saves me the bother of going back to the map one last time, since (except probably for a cleaner New Orleans) this is what it'd have come out as.

Close up of New Orleans. I left Orleans Parish intact.


()


Its odd how Rodney Alexander (elected 2002) is the senior member of the delegation here. Boustany was elected in 2004, the rest of them are over the last 2 years. They have a combined ~20 years of seniority.

When the legislature was debating returning to the open primary for congressional elections, those opposed argued that it would cost Louisiana seniority (with a party primary, representatives are elected in early November; with the open primary in December, if a runoff is needed).  But they didn't figure out the reason that there was so little seniority was that they had replaced everyone in the last few years, with some of them two times.  In addition, seniority is measured from January when the term begins.  At worst, a representative elected in December is going to get an office a long way from the capitol.

Incidentally, Edwin Edwards has been released from prison, to serve the rest of his sentence in home confinement.

It might make sense to put all of Point Coupee in the purple district, and Avoyelles entirely in the yellow or the purple district.  This would eliminate a couple of county splits, and place the entire Atchafalaya River in the purple district.  While it may look cosmetically worse, it is very difficult to travel through that area by road.  Mapquest says to cross over at Natchez if traveling between Monroe and Baton Rouge.

This assumes a balancing adjustment can be founde in East Baton Rouge and Ascension.

Louisiana (on the 2009 ACS, so this will have to change slightly for the Census as Orleans Parish was overestimated in the ACS). Two Cajun seats, two Northern seats, one black seat, no problems. The key was to put a bunch of Jefferson Parish in with LA-03. LA-02 is 57% black.


()


()

I dismantled LA-06 and actually managed to make it look pretty decent, aside from LA-02, of course.

()

LA-02 is 66% black. LA-04 is 33% black, but that's where it is currently, so that shouldn't hurt the Republican hold on the district. LA-07 got renumbered to LA-05 (yellow).

Anyone tried this (a hypothetical "No VRA") scenario? It's a bit risky because LA's current Republican shift might be temporary as a result of Obama. (There were, after all, 3/7 Democrats as recently as 2008 and what looked like a good shot at getting 4/7). However, LA-01 to the north has a lot of heavily and reliably Republican suburban territory, so it might not be too hard.

An attempt to:

*Create a 55% Black district that doesn't include New Orleans
*A second district that is majority-minority
*Avoid crossing Lake Pontchartrain
*Population deviation less that 75 from ideal
*Beyond the A-A non-New Orleans district, attempt to keep parish and city boundaries intact.

I was successful in all but the last category, in which I was relatively close; and in crossing the Lake (but I did it via unpopulated land, not water, so I'm giving myself that one).

()

Not much detail required, you get the idea.

D1 (thistle) White 75%, Black 19%
D2 (green) White 47%, Black 41%
D3 (orange) White 68%, Black 25%
D4 (yellow) White 74%, Black 20%
D5 (pink) White 67%, Black 29%
D6 (navy blue) White 41%, Black 55%

The conventional wisdom here seems to be that the VRA district must extend all the way to Baton Rouge. I just made one that's 53% black and only extends up to take in parts of Iberville and Ascension Parishes. I used 2009 ACS, but something like that should still end up being majority VAP black by census numbers, right?

Probably not. The ACS ended up way overestimating New Orleans' population. The VRA seat is going to have to go into Baton Rouge.

But it doesn't have to go into New Orleans.

(any comments on my map?)

()

Louisiana Redistricting Cases:  the 1990s (http://www.senate.leg.state.mn.us/departments/scr/redist/redsum/lasum.htm)

Been there, done that, got the court decree.

Well there you go. I wonder if it would survive a challenge nowadays...

In the 1990's the USDOJ approved both the Mark of Zorro and the reverse back slash.  Bother were overturned by a district court.

The Supreme Court decision in between had to do with standing.  The original plaintiffs weren't in the 2nd plan.  After they got some new plaintiffs the court then reoverturned the plan.  The court then drew the final plan, which didn't need pre-clearance since it was drawn by a federal court.

So, in short, it depends on the composition of the court at that point in time, if it was the second proposal. If it was the first proposal, it could be rejected completely without any chance of returning.

I think?

The court would have to find some reason to overturn the reasoning of their earlier decision.

Well, with the 2010 Census numbers added for LA, I thought I'd try and make a Louisiana map that doesn't involve going into Baton Rouge to maintain LA-02. Landry gets the shaft, since he's the freshman.

State:

()

Zoom of LA-02 and surrounding area:

()

LA-01 (blue, Steve Scalise - R) - Created a district that encircles Lake Pontchartrain. Extremely safe for Stivers.
LA-02 (green, Cedric Richmond - D) - Okay, so this one stretches from New Orleans to Lafayette. It's 59.3% black, with a 56.5% black VAP. It also has the advantage of cutting right through Jeff Landry's home of New Iberia. Boustany lives in Lafayette, but probably not in the heavily-black portions (just guessing).
LA-03 (purple, Charles Boustany - R) - Boustany gets nearly all of his old district plus part of Landry's. He'd be a prohibitive favorite if Landry were to run here.
LA-04 (red, John Fleming - R) - This one pulls in a few new parishes, and loses one (Grant). 60.6% white, 32.9% black, but the VAP is 63.0% and 31.3%, respectively.
LA-05 (yellow, Rodney Alexander - R) - Stretches southeast to take in parts of LA-06 and the former LA-03. 62.6% white, 33.2% black, with a VAP of 65.0% and 31.3%.
LA-06 (teal, Bill Cassidy - R) - Pulls in some parts of LA-01, loses some areas around Baton Rouge. 60.5% white, 32.5% black, with VAP of 63.2% and 30.3%.

The danger here, of course, is if Republicans stop getting 75% of the white vote. Anything below that and they start to have problems.

Apart from not seeing why going into Lafayette should be preferrable to going into Baton Rouge... if such a map were to be drawn you certainly should shift a lot of territory counterclockwise around the 2nd.

Couldn't the state of Louisiana just argue that the African American populations of Baton Rouge and New Orleans are two discrete and distinct population groups, geographically distant enough that the Gingles test wouldn't apply for creating a minority district in the area? They could initiate preclearance with the DC District Court rather than waiting for Eric Holder's move, and cite Miller v. Johnson and such for the three judge panel.

Then the legislature could just put all of the NOLA metro neatly into a single district that would put Richmond in a tough fight against Scalise. That would also let the Baton Rouge district take in some GOP-heavy North Shore territory from the current 1st district to shore up Cassidy. All six Republican Congressmen keeping their seats sounds great for them, no?

At which the first judge they not picked specifically for the purpose by them laughs so hard that the state is blown right into Lake Maracaibo, right?

I can't see Scalise willingly bumping his district up to 35% black or so.

What you could do is make sure you hit only 50.000001% VAP and pair New Orleans with, say, Livingston parish for Joseph Cao to make a comeback. But I highly doubt they do it.

I would guess that New Orleans includes some of the only liberal non-minority neighborhoods in the state which would make a non-corrupt Democrat viable even at that level.

That seems to be the case, given how Orleans Parish voted 77% Kerry and 79% Obama, and New Orleans is something like 65% black or so. Might be less now.

You would have to gerrymander liberal whites out into Scalise's district.

Well, most likely, yeah, but it doesn't mean that the blind opportunists populating the Louisiana state government wouldn't try to do it anyway. :P

Especially considering the local unpopularity of a BR-NO district (among NOLA whites, anyway), the legal history of previous districts in the state that connected black cities with narrow strands, and the fact that Anthony Kennedy wrote the majority opinion in some arguably relevant case law. IMO there's just enough of an impetus here that I could see 'em actually trying to do it.

Yes, New Orleans has plenty of liberal whites, probably the only in the state.

As a vague/general rule of thumb if you're going to be trying a map of this, you can assume the only Orleans Parish whites that will vote reliably Republican are those living directly west of City Park (the really big north-central precinct in the redistricting app).

That's just a generalization of course but if I start going on about the exceptions I'll probably end up writing an essay. :P

The problem is that the sixth is actually majoritarian in that 4th. Meaning that Rodney Alexander won't be happy at all.

So, apart from amending for the changes between estimates and census results, this map attempts to rectify that and give the north a plurality vs suburban BR and suburban NOLA...

()

()

It seems like there are a lot of extra county splits.  In the current map it appears that there was an effort to reduce splits.  You have two counties split between salmon and turquoise, and turquoise and purple.  Since the yellow district will split counties, there is no reason to split a county between salmon and yellow.  I'd try to keep Rapides in one district (turquoise) and bring the Salmon district further south along the border (you've probably split Fort Polk between districts also).  And then eliminate the three-way splits of Saint. James, Saint John the Baptist, and Saint Charles.  The split of Jefferson is unavoidable.

But I'm not sure that I'd worry about Alexander.  And in any case, if comes down to a regional race, Monroe will vote more provincially than Baton Rouge, and rural areas even more so.

Yeah, I know I have a lot of county splits that just looked prettier. :)

Putting Alexandria in teal (where it doesn't belong from a "regional" perspective) probably does make sense for the GOP - that red district is getting awfully black otherwise.

They're two centres of population in Vernon Parish, one right by Fort Polk, the other Leesville, and I ran the boundary between them. I suppose their economies are tied to each other and they're better off left together, though...

What's Cassidy going to do after his district is dismantled? If the 4th is really a majorly redrawn 6th, I don't see why he wouldn't run there.

But alright. Cassidy Alexander fight set up again; minimal number of county splits not counting those with Richmond. Not three-way-cutting St Charles means wasting some perfectly good suburban Republicans on Richmond, though. Vermilion was transferred cause otherwise (with boundaries elsewhere as is) the St Landry split goes right through Eunice. I didn't actually keep Rapides in one piece, though - better that than Calcasieu, and if you use Allen you need almost (but not quite) the entire parish making Boustany's connection to Alexandria quite erose.

()

()

All districts within 100 of optimum.

The fourth is still just 59.9% White, but Fort Polk is bound to have more Republican Whites - and more Republican / nonvoting minorities - than Alexandria, so I suppose it'll be alright.

Just noticed that I still technically have a three-way split of Orleans with that outermost Algiers precinct. Easily remedied, though - the precinct just west of those two easternmost Jefferson Landry precincts is almost exactly the same size and plurality White.

If you look at the current map without county lines visible, it almost appears as if there are bunches of county cuts, because the shape of the counties is irregular.

Since LA has a 32% black population, I wonder if the DOJ will want to see roughly 1/3 of the CDs drawn with a black majority? I drew a hypothetical map that achieves that result. All districts are within 100 of the ideal. CD 2 goes from New Orleans to Houma district with 51.4% black VAP. CD 6 takes in Baton Rouge, Alexandria, and Lafayette with 50.6% black VAP. CD 3 ends up wrapping from east of Baton Rouge to the southern suburbs of New Orleans. The Shreveport area parishes are split to avoid a district that runs from Monroe to Lake Charles.

()
()

It would be hard to argue I suspect to argue that your LA-02 Muon2 ties together communities of interest. I would think the DOJ would be embarrassed to push for such a thing. But that does not mean that they won't. But I suspect SCOTUS will blow the DOJ away on this one if it goes there.

The old idea of LA-2 entirely within the SE corner clearly can't happen anymore. Most other maps posted link NOLA to either Baton Rouge or perhaps to Lafayette. I could argue that this version of LA-2 would keep it entirely in the traditional Cajun parishes near NOLA, and is no worse than the long river link up to Baton Rouge.

Yes, but does the VRA require it?

You're playing with a lot of fire there, in that this map creates a decent possibility of a 6-0 GOP LA delegation (especially if Obama is reelected), since come 2012, we go back to the old system of jungle primary night on election day and runoff afterwards.

So, how does the court handle a jungle primary with the requirement that the minority has the opportunity to elect a candidate of choice? The court has removed the threat of challenges for maps that provide rough proportionality for such opportunities, the lack of an available district that has a majority of the VAP for a single minority, or the lack of different voting behavior between the minority and the white majority. The court has held that a district need not guarantee the specific minority success - note that Cao won in LA-2. If a minority thwarts itself in an open primary by running multiple candidates, isn't that still an opportunity even if missed?

You seem to think that the DoJ will play hardball at every point, which is not that ridiculous of an assumption given who runs things.  So there.

However, one wonders whether they would push hard on weak cases, thus giving the USSC greater leeway to strike them down and deliver bad precedent.  After all, 32% is not 33%, last time I checked.  And last term, USSC indicated that section 5 preclearance is not long for this world.  Moreover, the "big" court has not exactly indicated hard and fast rules for everything (if much of anything), and has not exactly been inclined to strike down districts that made it past lower levels.

CD-6 there looks even more problematic than  CD-2.

I'm not sure why it would be problematic. Other intentional VRA districts are often as badly shaped, and in NC one can argue that they are worse than my example here.

If you were to shift Plaquemines and St.Bernard, New Orleans Easr, French Quarter, and Garden District to CD-3, could you push CD-3 out of Baton Rouge?  You can come in along the river from Chalmette.

Or go ahead and take Jefferson Parish by using Lake Pontchartrain.

I tried a number of combinations to get CD-3 out of Baton Rouge. I did look at moving CD-3 up to US 61 and picking up the French Quarter, etc. as you suggest. However, it wasn't enough population to push CD-1 all the way across to the Mississippi. I hadn't considered leaping across the lake to connect CD-2, since the maps I saw connected across only at the Causeway.

Mostly because I don't expect any court to actually require that, and I don't expect newly empowered LA Republicans to roll over for the Justice department.

Update here.

Special Legislative session to handle redistricting is starting in 8 days. The proposed deadline to submit everything for preclearance is May 2nd. Fun fact: Louisiana has never qualified preclearance on the first try before! This can be a problem- state legislature's districts have to be finalized by the end of August for the 2011 elections.

Looking pretty clear that two districts will remain in the north while the lost district will be one of the coastal ones; Boustany's already gearing up to fight a primary against Landry (even holding events in what's still the latter's district). Traditionally, the US House delegation submits it's own redistricting proposal for the state legislature to consider; everyone except Landry agreed on the principle of mostly gutting Landry's district but changing the others as little as possible.

Also, the Louisiana legislative Black Caucus has hired a consultant to draw a map with two majority-black districts. (http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/03/black_caucus_hires_consultant.html)

Instead of hiring a consultant, they should just have talked to muon2.

And I could give a cleaner looking map with 2 majority-black districts if I had data at the block level. :)

Hey, look, it's our first officially-proposed maps:

http://www.2theadvocate.com/blogs/politicsblog/118209134.html

The Senate passed this map (http://www.legis.state.la.us/billdata/streamdocument.asp?did=736183) which puts Landry in Boustany's district and gives LA-04 about a 40% black VAP.

One has to wonder how on earth this can be that difficult. Jindal I hope would veto any map like the Senate one.

This was the two-district black map plan (http://www.legis.state.la.us/archive/111es/HB42Original.pdf). It stretched the 2nd District from New Orleans to Lafayette (56.6% black registered voters) and the 5th district from Baton Rouge to Monroe (51.8% black registered voters). Didn't make it out of committee in the House because of universal Republican opposition: the map chopped up every Congressman's political base except Boustany, put Alexander and Fleming in the same seat, cut Landry's hometown between the districts of Boustany, Scalise, and Richmond, and I think forced Bill Cassidy to move, too.


A Jindal spokesman has said (http://www.dailyworld.com/article/20110324/NEWS01/103240306) that the governor disagrees with a horizontal "I-20 district" that covers the north of the state and puts Shrevport and Monroe into the same district, so yeah, I'm not really sure what the Senate is doing passing that map.

Other than eliminating an incumbent (which has to be done somewhere and the incumbent lost under this plan isn't in the North, anyway), why is putting Monroe and Shreveport in the same district so controversial?

This ugly map (http://www.legis.state.la.us/archive/111es/HB6Engrossed.pdf) has been the most popular with the House redistricting committee (passing fifteen to five). It keeps two vertical districts in the north, keeps Boustany's district nice and compact, makes the 2nd district 61.6% black (registered voters) with a New Orleans-Baton Rouge connection (that's actually kind of tidily designed coming out of New Orleans but then becomes only a single precinct wide on the outskirts of Baton Rouge). The 1st district covers most of both shores of Lake Ponchartrain but then cuts across Lake Borgne (no connection of any sort exists there) to cover the eastern bayou as well. Most strangely, the 5th district comes south to the northern edge of Baton Rouge then cuts across to the east in a two precinct-wide line between the 6th district and the state line to the north, as if for some reason it had to include as much of the Mississippi border as possible. I don't know why they did that.


Well, first off, neither Alexander nor Fleming want to run against each other at all, while Boustany has no problem running against Landry if given favorable conditions. Also, nobody wants to mess with Alexander because he's the only member of the delegation on the Appropriations Committee. Besides that, though, there's a pretty strong community of interest argument- the northwest has several big army bases and Fleming's on the Armed Services Committee, while the northeast is mostly farmland. There's also a tradition argument because both districts have been historically shaped that way, with the two cities serving as the centers of two separate districts.

If you wanted to create a road connection, LA-01 would have to pick up the two eastmost New Orleans precincts, 9-45 and 9-45A.   They have about 1,000 residents between them and are majority non-Hispanic white.  But former Congressman Cao lives in one of those precincts in the Venetian Isles neighborhood.  Perhaps they didn't want to draw him out of the New Orleans district or into a Republican district where he might challenge the party's man.

The other issue is that Monroe and Shreveport combined have too many blacks to become a safe R district.

I did this map for kicks and grins more than anything else.

My goals were:
-Create a super-packed VRA district with >75% minority
-Create 2 horizontal districts in the north
-Have 1 district span almost the entire coastine
-Split as few parishes as possible.

()

This is a closer look at the VRA district. Its 76% minority with 24% white. Note the deviation of zero; I know these numbers are older, but I thought that was pretty cool.
()

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/04/5_louisiana_congressmen_call_f.html

With just days remaining in the Legislature's post-census redistricting session, five members of Louisiana's congressional delegation are calling for state lawmakers to postpone drawing new U.S. House districts.



Bottom line: Boustany is being a huge d-bag and trying to sink Fleming as well as Landry. Rest of the GOP delegation is pissed.

Boustany already has a Safe R district and even with redistricting , he'd be in pretty good shape anyway.

Oh well, I'll have more time to work on a plan. I have relations on the Legislature's Redistricting Committee. I've been wanting to send in a plan...

HB 1 (which redistricts state House seats) and SB 1 (which redistricts the Senate) have both passed the the opposite chambers today without amendment, meaning all that's left now is for their originating chambers to send them to the governor.

The U.S. Congressional districts are the only thing still left to consider.

The Senate passed this map today:

()

:D

Not bad.

I could see the 5th and 6th being competitive with the right wave.

4th and 5th you mean? I can't imagine the Baton Rouge district being competitive anymore now that the black population was removed.

Really?  Because I'd think the 4th is the Democrat's best pickup opportunity, given that its probably ~40% black.  Both the 5th and 6th cover fairly Conservative white territory.

So, the gamble is going to be - let's create a district where there are so many blacks that only a black Dem will be nominated in a open seat jungle general election, and then said black Dem will get f-ed in the runoff.  Seems to me a little dangerous, but LA GOP must still be afraid of the white Dem and not afraid off the black Dem (which is not that unreasonable).  Of course, as long as there is a GOP incumbent, there won't be any problem until the wave, and maybe the silly jungle primary will be effective there to.  I'd still spread the blacks out, but that's a choice...

This makes the three other GOP CDs really safe though and Boustany will not lose that CD while he's around (so I guess he's planning on being around).

Yeah, I meant the 4th.

This map just passed both chambers and Jindal is expected to sign it:

()

Looks pretty solid. LA-05 is 62% white/36% black, but not that big an issue.

:(

This is the actual map

()

The 5th looks like it almost has touch-point contiguity.

The southern tip of Concordia Parish comes just south of 31 degrees north (the boundary between Mississippi and Louisiana) and touches West Feliciana.  There is also a loop at Old River which is part of West Feliciana, but not contiguous to the main part.  No roads in the area, but you can come across at Natchez to get to Baton Rouge.

That second map is the correct one; the blog I got mine from updated a few hours later.

The 4th is 35% Black and the 5th is 36%.

It still looks pretty awkward though.

The 6th looks like it cuts the 5th into 2 pieces.

So they screwed Landry and gave Scalise some nasty Cajuns to deal with. Which is pretty much what it takes to save Cassidy. They must like Cassidy.

The only representatives they really like are Boustany and Alexander, hence why their respective districts changed so little. Keeping Boustany comfortable is what forced them to screw over Landry (which was inevitably going to happen from the start). Boustany's district is also what forces the 1st District to pick up the rest of cajun country. Scalise may have dislike his new district but he should be comfortable because his base in East Jefferson will always outvote the bayou. I don't think the map really gives Cassidy any sort of preferential treatment in particular, especially considering that he has to deal with +50,000 angry cajuns as well (note how Houma's basically split in half).

Wow, that's right. They really screwed over the eastern part of Cajun country.

SSP has the Presidential numbers for the new districts:

LA-01 - 72.7 McCain, 25.3 Obama
LA-02 - 73.4 Obama, 25.4 McCain
LA-03 - 64.3 McCain, 34.1 Obama
LA-04 - 58.9 McCain, 39.9 Obama
LA-05 - 62.0 McCain, 36.7 Obama
LA-06 - 67.5 McCain, 30.9 Obama

Congressional map precleared.

They could have forced another VRA seat....

They have the racial breakdown (which is a fairly close voter proxy in Louisiana) but does anyone know where I could get ready information on the actual vote of the 2008 election within these new districts (I'm new at this)?  I'd like to know how safe the Republican districts would be in another Democratic blowout election.

I don't disagree, but the same census that La. is losing a seat, it would look bad and partisan for Obama and the DOJ to do so.

Oops...

Thanks!

LA is about 33% black, so minorities should have another seat, IMO.

But yeah, I agree.

Are you aware of the Cleomander and the case law around it?

No.

()

That's what it took in the 90s. It was used for two elections, then struck down by the Supreme Court.

I always wondered what the story behind that funky district was.

But surely a cleaner district could be drawn...

Doubt it. The blacks are too spread out.

http://www.legis.state.la.us/archive/111es/HB42Original.pdf

Alright, I'm a bit surprised at that, but point taken. Still, it's not pretty, and it splits most parishes in the 5th. Would it survive a court challenge? We'll never know.

You can do a second black-majority seat by doing something like NC-12. Go along I-49 and US-167 to connect from New Iberia, through Lafayette, Alexandria and Natchitoches all the way to Shreveport. You'll need to create an arm out to either Lake Charles or Monroe to finish it, but it's a little bit neater than the 90s version (which was drawn in quite so convoluted a fashion in part to ensure that the surrounding districts remained sufficiently Democratic to elect more Democratic congressman).

The older district had a higher Black percentage than some of the more compact alternatives.

Personally, I prefer to call it the "mark of Zorro" :P

The last time I tried to do a map of GA, the 2nd ended up looking like that. :P


Sorry, BK. ;)

If you look carefully, there are fingers into Baton Rouge, Shreveport, Ruston, Monroe, Alexandria, and Lafayette.  With the primitive computer equipment of the era they were unable to get to Lake Charles, Houma, and Bogulusa.

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/08/legislative_black_caucus_will.html

Rep. Patricia Smith, D-Baton Rouge, said unless an individual wants to challenge it or a national group wants to fight the new districts in court, they will probably remain as they are. The map was cleared last week by the U.S. Department of Justice. "We've got our hands full with the (state) House seats," Smith said.



Not surprising.

Something I did in my boredom as the hurricane passed through:

This would be as close to 3-3 as you could get in Louisiana.

()


CD1: R+27

Pretty similar to the district that Scalise actually got. He's one of the Republicans that I like the most in Congress (he's done some good work with Landrieu on local issues), so I kept his seat basically intact.

CD2: D+17

This is on 52% Black VAP, which should be enough for preclearance. Again, similar to the actual district.

CD3: R+27

The 3rd becomes one of the three votes sinks where McCain won by almost 3:1. Landry's odd's of winning a primary would slightly improve under this map, as this map keeps Terrebone in the 3rd, but I'd still expect Boustany to retain this seat. Maybe I could draw a district for Chris John in addition to the 3 others Democratic seats in this map. 4-2 would be nice...

CD4: R+7

This is about as D-friendly as I could make the Shreveport district. Its down to 53% McCain, thanks to the hooks into Monroe and Alexandria. Landrieu should have won with 57-58% here and Flemming should have lost the open-seat contest here by about 5 points in 2008. The Democrats would still need to do some work here, as this seat would have probably flipped in 2010; in any case, should be well within reach for a Blue Dog.

CD5: R+28

Alexander gets the third R vote sink. This is something of a "leftovers" seat; its keeps the  most the parishes along the MS border but gets the R parts of Rapides and Ouchita and then finally reaches south to absorb the horrendously red Livingston parish. 'Interesting to think that the district that Huey Long was born in has almost a 70% R average!

This is also the most racially polarized district in the state. The electorate here is 76.6% white VAP, 74.1% McCain; meaning McCain won 97% of the white vote. In terms of the polarization, the other 2 heavily R district weren't far behind; McCain got 96% of whites in CD1 and 92% in CD3.

CD6: R+2

This would be a fairly solid D seat by state standards; it even actually voted for Obama. The only threat would be Cassidy running, but it would even then be a tossup at best. The best candidate here would be State Representative Steven Ortego (http://www.stephenortego.com/bio/); he's 28 and I think he could be a fresh face for the LA Dems going forward.
I would have normally drawn this district up to Alexandria to pick up black voters, but I used that instead to bolster the 4th; this necessitated the hand into Lake Charles. This district is 41% black VAP, so Ortego would only need about 17-20% of the white vote to win, which should come pretty easily.

New Orleans is the fastest growing city in the nation. Does anyone know if they are on pace to regain the 7th district?

I am contemplating how the legislature can cleave New Orleans to create another Republican district.

Yes, people are, thankfully, coming back to New Orleans after Katrina.

I doubt it will be enough to get a 7th CD back though; in New Orleans, we're not even back up to our pre-Katrina numbers. Even without the population loss from the storm, Louisiana was still on track to lose CD7, IIRC.

Made this map out of boredom, taking on the concept of a borderline VRA seat, in a slightly unconventional way

()

LA1 (Scalise): 75.5W/16B/5H, 74M/24O, 68R/32D
LA2 (Richmond): 43W/44B/8H, 58O/40M, 63D/37R
LA3 (Landry or Boustany): 68W/23B, 66M/32O, 62R/38D
LA4 (Fleming): 73W/21B, 72M/27O, 67R/33D
LA5 (Alexander): 72W/22.5B, 68M/30.5O, 63R/37D
LA6 (open): 30W/65B, 69O/30M, 72D/28R

()
()

There was absolutely no reason not for the Obama DOJ to push for a new black majority seat here, in Alabama, and in South Carolina.  I guess he and black Bob Saget(Holder) love having a Republican House. 

Because 201 to 204 Democratic Congressmen is the difference between whether there's a Republican House or not?

My suspicion is the DOJ didn't want to press the boundaries of the VRA for fear that the whole thing could get thrown out. Of course, that may end up happening anyways.

The more seats you have is always better. 

I think that section 5 of the VRA is the part they were most concerned with overturning. If that were eliminated DOJ would lose its special position to preclear changes in affected jurisdictions.

Not that I'm expecting much to come of this but Louisiana is being sued  (http://www.opposingviews.com/i/society/race/louisiana-sued-racial-gerrymandering-blacks-packed-2nd-congressional-district#)as CD2 is being called a racial gerrymander.

This is a Louisiana that the state GOP would do if a Black district isn't required. LA-02 is a tossup district. LA-05 is drawn to slightly favor Riser in a rematch.
()

If I were trying to draw a pro-Riser map, I would also have CD4 span the entire AR border, like with this map. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=130419.msg2867572#msg2867572) That way, three of McAllister's best parishes are excised. I'd maybe also trade Lincoln parish to push the district further south.

What are the numbers for your CDs 1 and 2? I don't think Scalise would like that map. He'd have to run in the district with Orleans Parish or run in the blue district, which would be good for a Cajun candidate like Landry.

What I like about these types of LA maps is that you usually end up with a nice compact capitol district.

CD1 is pretty safe if I recall- around 39% McCain (although I exited out of the App before I was able to save this map).

But what about CD2?

The McCain % in CD1 wouldn't be the problem for Scalise; it would be the potential of a Cajun Republican running.

If I recall, CD2 voted for McCain but had a D average.

With regards to Scalise, I know. This is simply a super-partisan map in that area.

Do you have any more screenshots of it? I'd say Republicans would concede a New Orleans district. Otherwise, something like your CD2 would practically be an invitation for Mitch Landrieu to run for Congress.

I redid it.
NOLA Area:
()
St. Tammany Parish:
()

Given the swings in southeastern LA, CD2 could very well be a McCain -> Obama district. If not, Romney would definitely be under 50%.

Going for 6-0 would just be too risky for Republicans, IMO.

It isn't risky at all. The two main issues are that Scalise would throw a tantrum, and common decency. CD1 isn't threatened at all, and there's no harm in making CD2 a little friendlier for a Richmond-Cao rematch.

()

Even if Cao beats Richmond, a white Democrat, like Mitch Landrieu or John Georges, could beat him.

Scalise has too many allies in the legislature to a get district like that in the first place. 

I suppose you and I have a different definition of risky- It's an improvement for the GOP to go from a 5-1-0 map to a 5-0-1 map- a Democrat could certainly win though.

Yeah, and I know Scalise make it impossible. Thank goodness!

My attempt at a clean 5-1 that the legislators might like:

()

CD1- About as good as its gets for Scalise. He keeps his homebase of Metairie as well as St/ Tammant/Tangipahoa parishes. The district picks up a few river parishes, which the residents (least least in LaPlace and eastward) there mostly consider themselves part of the NOLA area anyway.

CD2: 57% Obama but swung a few pointss towards him in 2012. This resolves the 'packing' issue in the current lawsuit as for the VAP, its 48% white, 40% black. There actually is some precedent for a district like this as Hale Boggs' seat was Orleans Parish plus some coastal parishes.

CD3: Of all the current Congressmen, King Rep. Boustany would be the one most averse to having his district changed. I changed a total of one precinct here.

CD4/CD5: There was only so much you could do to weaken McAllister, given Riser's poor showing. I moved McAllister's hometown, Swartz, into CD4 as well as some of his best precincts in Ouachita parish. I cut off all the districts northern parishes and swapped them for some in Acadiana, which at least should be better for Riser.

CD6: I just kinda tried to make this a clean, whole-parish district and work around it to accomplish my other goals. 57/42 McCain but probably 55/43-ish Romney. A Baton Rouge Republican should be good to hold it in most cases.

More on the lawsuit. (http://theadvocate.com/home/7768192-125/suit-challenges-louisianas-2nd-congressional) They want a court-drawn map, so it may be out of the legislature's hands (if it goes through):

A federal court never has first authority to draw district lines.

The plaintiffs seem to be arguing that if Louisiana was still subject to pre-clearance, that the map would lawful.   But if the district court were to rule in favor of the plaintiffs, Louisiana might be subject to the bail-in under Section 3, which would then make the plan lawful again.

The plaintiffs aren't likely to carry forward on a full-out attack on the inconsistencies between Section 2 and Section 5.  So eventually they will be stuck arguing based on constitutional and Section 2 arguments that they could have filed in 2011.  So they are quite unlikely to get a preliminary injunction for 2014, and it is most likely a case that will be running for the next several years.

Well, there goes that. (http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/12/lawsuit_challenging_louisianas.html) The lawsuit against CD2 was withdrawn; no reason was cited.

Let's suppose Gov. John Bel Edwards is (narrowly) re-elected, though with Republicans winning a veto-proof majority in the Senate but falling just short in the House as seems likely to be the case tomorrow -how would that affect redistricting in 2020-21?  

He would veto and try to force separate Democratic leaning districts in Baton Rouge and New Orleans on the congressional map and hope to force a State House map that would have Republicans structurally below 2/3rds.  Some court would end up drawing the map.  The Louisiana state courts are filled by partisan elections and are therefore Republican dominated, so chances are good they would just adopt the legislature's maps.  His best hope is it ends up in a federal court and that court appoints a special master. 

JBE's case doesn't rest in the courts, it rests with the census data. If the AA pop is high enough, he's going to make the case that AAs deserve 2/6 rather than 1/6. Presently AA pop is near 33%, and NOLA rebounded hard after Katrina, but the AA pop in the belt is shrinking, like everywhere. There's a few ways you can draw that second seat, but it always involves going from BR to Caddo. This is less a case for common cause and fair Redistricting groups, and more a case for NAACP. I'm going to have a LA thread up tomorrow if JBE win, but the simple explanation is that this is going to be a battleground, no matter if the GOP has a supermajority or not.

And if the House is just short of a supermajority, Edwards can prevent African American legislators (who make up the vast majority of the Democratic caucus) from joining Republicans by using the potential for a second black majority (or influence) district,, which the Republican plan would never had.

It's also possible to draw a black district with Lafayette+Baton Rouge and then draw a non-majority Black New Orleans district which would still very likely elect an African-American.

I think this is a much more likely outcome than a Baton Rouge-to-Shreveport district.

On 2010 racial figures. I'm skeptical that will continue to be the case in 2020.

2020 BVAP projects are far more  favorable to the urban areas than 2010, you need a second city with BR.

Why is that?

I think this is the much better option for Democrats long term.

Now the question does RIchmond even want his district diluted?

D+25 to lets say D+18 isn't diluting lul. Nobody needs a 60% AA pop seat except perhaps in Mississippi these days, districts with that level of BVAP were  struck down in NC. As long as he can easily survive a primary I assume he will be happy, which probably needs at least say a 10% gap between AA and Whites, which is easily achievable. Whites after all vote between the D and R primaries whereas AA's are solely in the D primary.

Richmond has never been anything even remotely resembling a team player though (in contrast to someone like, say, G.K. Butterfield), so it's hard to say for sure what he'll do.

Lucy Clay needed a D+25 to be happy, idk about Richmond

O/c in St Louis far more whites are Democratic than in New Orleans. Plus he had Carnahan who was drawn out of a seat running against him in a primary too, Richmond doesn't have that problem.

One thing that’s interesting is we might actually end up with a pretty fair Louisiana House map and Dems might be able to continue to deny the GOP a supermajority.

According to my calculations, Dems actually have a pretty decent geography advantage in the state, mostly thanks to white rurals “hyper packing” and black areas being lower turnout. Combine that with VRA, and you get a bunch of 60ish% Dem districts and 80% R districts. It’s actually pretty easy to make a relatively compact LA House map on 2020 numbers where Biden outright wins a majority of seats.

Am I saying Dems will outright win a majority under the new maps. Def not. However, I do think they will be given a good 40% of the seats or so and have no less of a viable path to a majority than in a state like Ohio or even Wisconsin which is weird to think about.

That's really interesting.  It seems like the main thing legislative Dems need is 3 or more separate cities that are significant vs. statewide?  LA has NOLA, Baton Rouge and Shreveport (plus smaller cities in Cajun country that are no longer Dem).  NC legislative Dems have held up better than GA legislative Dems in recent times despite the Biden/Warnock/Ossoff wins in GA, probably for the same regional distribution reasons?

I do strongly expect LA to trend Dem over the decade (continuing film industry/artsy migration to NOLA + Jefferson Parish finally gives out like the ATL suburbs did last year). 

Troy Carter said he's cool with losing some strength for a second majority-minority district.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1440026653003063299?s=20

It's harder now than it was last decade

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1462566935200251905

JBE indicates he will veto unfair maps.

Does anyone know when the two Democrats elected to the state house in the November 13 special elections take office?

Note a rural Dem switched to Independent earlier this year, so there are now 3 I's.  R's would need 2 of the 3 I's to override a veto, 2 are rural, one represents part of New Orleans. 

Note there was a high profile culture war bill in July after her switch where the veto was sustained.  There were only 68 votes to override, all of the Republicans.

I was able to make 2 safe Dem seats that are almost Black Majority. And proportionality wise, it's very fair.

District 5 is shaped like a seahorse lmao.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/54bca02c-e8c0-4ecf-bc2c-ddb071e179b1

()

()

()

A modest proposal. Yellow and green are both 50.1% black by CVAP. Hilariously, this got a 100 for Minority and Proportionality and below 20 for all other metrics

Just for fun I thought I'd see how much I could gerrymander Louisiana.

()

By 2016-20 average the districts are D+10.4, D+10.0, D+7.0, D+1.7, R+61.1, and R+69.8.

As god intended

Bumping in light of the Alabama decision

Louisiana has some 170K more Black people than Alabama does.
Any configurations you all have?

We don't know what the end result here would be yet, but I will note in preparation for maps that one can draw a 50% BVAP seat without using Shreveport or the counties adjacent to Vicksburg. BR + North Lafayette + some surrounding environs are all that is needed. This does push the New Orleans seat below 50% BVAP, but it doesn't need to be that high to perform.

Now why do I note this? Well, while these seats are compact and reflect Gingles, they give middle fingers to the R incumbents. Scalise and Grave's seats would see major overhauls, and cutting Lafayette is likely undesirable by Higgins. So, if there is to be a second AA seat, it would likely be less compact than ideal specifically to get the GOP incumbents that matter on board.

Louisiana is moving fast. House expects to pass a map by February 5.

https://twitter.com/BlakePater/status/1487140577061838854?s=20&t=MvTbTzS1ix6...

I was actually able to create a map in MS with 2 black districts, though both only have plurality, not majority-black VAPs and populations: https://districtr.org/plan/103583. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th aren't too compact, particularly not the 2nd and 3rd, but nonetheless, I think it could happen and could produce a 2-2 map.


Edwards should remember he has veto power and they don't have the votes to override. He can hold out for a 4-2, I think, or at least a 4-1 with one dicey seat.

Is this a decent map with two performing districts?

()()

A bunch of bills have been filed today with congressional draft plans. There are a lot of 4-2 maps, but there are also least change 5-1 maps as well.

https://twitter.com/BlakePater/status/1488347068070510593?s=20&t=PDwhGI7iks5...

One map creates 2nd black seat and another keeps the LA-02 snake least change map (Dem vs R map)

()

()

()

()

()


The 5 maps. 1, 3 and 5 appear to make a 2nd black seat, while 2 and 4 don't. Things about to get heated.

So no compromise map on the table where the Baton Rouge metro is kept whole for a seat similar to the old Arkansas 2nd.

The 2nd map seems interesting, its LA02 has a much larger portion of EBR. My bet is that its an attempt to peel off 1 or 2 EBR dem legislators to help their own position in a primary.

The second map lacks a 6th district. I don't know what happened there.

Oh shoot the 2nd map isn't a congressional map good catch

So basically we have 1 least change map that keeps the Snake and 3 that create a 2nd minority/Dem leaning seat.

The least change map was introduced by R and the 3 2nd Dem seat maps are introduced by Dems

Yeah I double checked and it's for the Louisiana Public Service Commission.

So this is obviously going to just be 1 Dem seat right?

I feel like the play in states with split government is whoever has the majority on the court just runs out the clock and gets there way anyway. Dems have no chance with a court being split 5-1-1

Could a 5-1 map similar to this happen?

() ()

Probably going to be the least change map proposed by Sen. Hewitt or something very similar. As much as I would like to see a second black district (plurality or otherwise), the legislature will not pass it and JBE will not have enough leverage to push for a second seat.

I mean, he would definitely veto and send it to court, which could be favorable-ish given the Alabama decision we just saw.

However, it's now in question whether JBE still has his job at the point it gets to the governor's desk.  Sadly, he may not be as ethical as he appeared, and if that issue has legs, the State Senate could remove him on a party line vote (though, given the allegations, it's unlikely to be a pure party line vote if it escalates to an impeachment trial). 

()


https://davesredistricting.org/join/3bb395b3-c1e8-4885-96e0-ecfcfc5ccdd7 (https://davesredistricting.org/join/3bb395b3-c1e8-4885-96e0-ecfcfc5ccdd7)
surprised that no one has proposed a map like this yet. Two pretty safe seats, both 49.7% black, the largest minority in both. Maybe could make them majority with a bit of shifting around

https://twitter.com/PiperHutchBR/status/1488613266087723014?s=20&t=99XrPOz3B...

Note there is currently a suit against the supreme court map, both on OMOV grounds since it hasn't been updated in decades, and on the grounds that there should be a second AA seat. The leg has plans to actually remap the court lines this year unlike last cycle, but they may only end up addressing point 1 rather than both. However, as the map shows, if one considers it difficult but not hard to get two AA seats above 50% BVAP on a 6 seat map, it is incredibly easy on a 7 seat one.

IIRC Scotus has already ruled against OMOV for State supreme court districts. 7 districts is actually pretty nice for Lousiana. 6 is awkard af to deal with.

Yeah though having one seat be 150K underpop and one 150K over - thank you Katrina - doesn't really pass the smell test, which is why the leg has put the court map on the schedule. Similar situation as IL earlier.

Yeah that shows the "limits" of LA. In a state roughly 1/3 AA it is simple to get 1/3 of seats to be AA seats...but then you have to reach. Anyway, the GOP Leg will likely be giving JBE a least change plan to veto:

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1488622417627037703?s=20&t=99XrPOz3...

Least change is not surprising at all, It'll probably be closer to the Hewitt plan. Bel Edwards will veto, and then the LA House will fail to override it. I wonder what the court will do.

Have democrats considered bribing the cajuns?

()

One interesting thing is both maps make LA-06 noticeably less red, though not enough to be competitive. Wonder why considering the other seats are Uber safe and LA-02 isn’t severely overpopulated or anything.

Also interesting that all the Dem maps with the 2nd black seat make it extremely safe rather than some of the Biden + 6 or Biden + 10 configs I’ve seen here.

That's the thing about redistricting in the deep south. You either get a mandated minority seat or a bleached white seat - zero sum. In a fair world there would be some more variation, bot not much. Either LA is found to be legally required to provide for a second AA seat, and therefore makes it performing so that there arn't time and money consuming MS SD-22 style cases, or it isn't and 5-1 remains.

Also, somewhat related, but the diagonal was submitted as a proposal seemingly for variations sake.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1488666890599907334?s=20&t=f_Xb32jL...

Surprising how ugly most of these maps are. I tried making a more compact one. https://davesredistricting.org/join/b2e3ecff-2da9-42f2-b9bb-d467c78a4a52

In this map the 2nd district is plurality-black CVAP despite only staying in the New Orleans area- there's no need to expand it outwards any further. And the 6th is Biden+3 so would probably stay R in 2022 but would be competitive in general. 5th is Trump+16 so almost certainly safe but could conceivably fall with a strong candidate in a favourable midterm.


()()

Part of me is immensely displeased by the fact your 2nd splits both Orleans and Jefferson parishes, while another part of me is pleased by the compactness.
I guess what I would have done is give it all of Orleans but otherwise leave the map unchanged.

Louisiana Parishes, especially in the Southeast corner suck

Depends on the parish.
I will say the discontiguity of St. Martin Parish is something of an eyesore though.

Senate committee votes to advance only 5-1 maps, the the shock of nobody. Courts or compromise will only occur if the expected veto holds.

Which it should, given the state of the House. I'm looking forward to seeing what happens in the courts - this hasn't shaken out like I expected so far, but I'm trying not to get my hopes up too high.

Assuming it doesn't end up being a VRA requirement as in the Alabama case, is there anything in Louisiana law that would stop Republicans from simply passing their preferred 5/1 gerrrymander in 2024 after they almost surely flip the governoroship?

Assuming the court isn't completely full of hacks, one has to remember even if they don't order a 2nd Black District, any natural Baton-Rouge based seat would likely be black opportunity at least and be at the very least competative if not D leaning

The only way 5-1 survives is most likely if some conservative Dems/Inds join the GOP to override Edwards which is very possible, or the court somehow finds the LA-02 snake as is reaching all the way up into Baton Rouge as the best representation of LA's electorate.

Ironically, the reddest "fair map" Baton Rouge seat would prolly be the most metro based taking in West Baton-Rouge Parish, Livingston Parish, and Ascension Parish, with 50k extra people. This district would be around Trump + 10. This is thanks to Louisiana's extreme racial polarization and the fact Livingston and Ascension are full of white suburbs and exurbs.

An independent and a Democrat voted for the 5R/1D map at the committee level in the House of Representatives.  This could be over, barring a successful VRA lawsuit.  Republicans are 2 seats below the veto override threshold.

Ugh, gonna be sad if we get Missouri'd. Which Democrat was it?

Thr Dems have had just so much winning with redistricting cycle, winning just about everything that was not nailed down with a couple of very slight hiccups in MT, AZ, and CO that are worth maybe a half seat each for the Pubs, that Trump must be consumed with envy. But the winning stops in LA. The governor's veto will be be overridden 71-34, and team Elias will lose the claim that that line dance CD chopping into Baton Rouge and Shreveport to pick up the black neighborhoods is a second compact Gingles CD. So it is time to move on from this state. There is nothing more to see here. The apostate "Tory" Dem represents a Pub bastion, the independent that went Pub is also parked in a Pub bastion, and another independent represents a district Trump won by 18 points (district 62), whom I sure knows which way the wind is blowing.

The Dems will get the third independent to vote no, a trial lawyer in district 85 who represents accused criminals, that Biden won by 10 points that is trending Dem. He calls himself fiscally conservative and socially liberal. Whites make up 37% of the voting age population, a percentage that is dropping as they are being switched out with Hispanics, with blacks holding steady at about 35%. He is a pal of the governor.  This assumes that district 85 was not gutted in the proposed map. If it was made substantially more Pub, then maybe he would vote to override. He is highly respected by both parties. But I doubt his district was messed with.

()

Maybe Louisiana democrats could have used their situation to push for a swing seat similar to Arkansas 2nd instead of just nicely asking for the GOP to gerrymander them a free seat.  They could have perhaps offered unanimous support for said seat in exchange for no lawsuit worries and the like.

Not sure how any process can preclude someone from suing (God bless America), and SCOTUS clearly wants to create more clarity on Gingles, so the practical aspect that courts give more deference to bipartisan maps, is not in play here.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1491191458057302016?s=20&t=b0BZ_8Uo...

A 100% party line vote, though this isn't the chamber that matters - the GOP has the exact number of seats needed to override.

The 5R/1D map on the House floor with exactly enough votes for a veto override.  The same D and I voted for it as before at the committee level.  There has to be another vote after JBE vetoes, of course.

Wild that Dems won't get a say in Louisiana or Kansas while they did get a say in Ohio and North Carolina.

They def cut some sort of deal with this D; maybe shored up their legislative district or something?

Still kinda unfortunate though, small chance maybe Dems can pull someone back into their corner but I'm expecting the ugly snake to stay for at least 2022.

This could be the last chance LA Dems get for 30+ years.

Ye and the thing that's unfortunate is if a 2nd Black district is created, it'll be harder for the GOP to get away with cracking in 2030, especially if Baton Rouge continues to grow rapidly.

Also interesting is that former Dem (now I) Melinda white voted to advance the maps in committee but appears to have voted against them on the House floor. She represents a deep red district and would largely fall into the group of "conservative rural/former Dem"

Again why was this always 2 black districts, or this absurd pack? Why was there no debate about creating a lean to likely R district in the region instead?

Uh have you been living under a rock.

Neither side was ever going to agree on a compromise map, especially in a state like Louisiana where Republicans are extremely conservative, and Democrats are mostly African American

One of the Dems who voted for the bill is a conservative Dem in deep Trump territory.

The other Dem seems relatively... normal black Louisiana Democrat, though his district is more rural and marginal and could easily be eliminated so my guess is it was some sort of deal with the GOP to save his district.

The 2 GOP reps who voted no is because they were upset about how their local communities were handeled, but could easily become Yea votes if needed.

The GOP should be able to (barely) override.

Biden majority Louisiana:

()

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b0da11e2-f771-49f7-b145-3ac5c248ee0c

As I always say, Louisiana Geography is quite surprising in how much it favors Ds, especially on the state House level

Could've prolly squeezed another seat or two out of BR if I really wanted to and another from New Orleans

That's incredible!  Distributed population centers at the scale that matters.  A surprising number of Southern-influenced states are natural R packs, Texas most clearly.  Virginia is probably heading this way as the VRA district margins narrow and the rural margins increase. 

Isn’t JBE running out of time to veto?

Quote from Shamlet on rrh

Huh?

A "natural" Baton Rouge seat would be similar to the Trump +10 seat you described above. Splitting the suburbs of Baton Rouge from Baton Rouge itself is clearly not natural, and that's the only way to make the seat black-opportunity or D-leaning.

It's really a question of how much you prioritize VRA.

The Trump + 10 seat may be the fairest when not considering race as a factor, but it's pretty much one of the "least black" Baton Rouge seat possible without outright splitting the black community down the middle. By connecting Black parts of Baton Rouge to rurals and smaller cities with black populations, it splits the metro but increases BVAP.

Feels sorta like the new AL-07, CA-22 or VA-04. Both seats could've been drawn to be more based around a single metro, but instead reach into rurals to increase their minority functioning ability. Why shouldn't the same precedent apply here.

I used to be a bit sympathetic to a compromise competitve seat based in Baton Rouge, but upon further reflection I agree with this--either put BR in a VRA district, which makes some sense, or do a district rooted in EBR+Livingston+Ascension, which are the obvious metro core of the Baton Rouge area and which naturally fall together if there's no VRA seat.

If the seat won't be black majority either way, there's no legal requirement, and if there's no legal requirement it is best to respect communities of interest.

"Communities of interest" can mean all sorts of things. Surely black people in Baton Rouge have more of a community of interest with black people in Lafayette than with white people in Livingston Parish. Metro areas and county/parish lines are not the be-all, end-all of what makes a community have common interests, although they can and are relevant or even, in the absence of other countervailing considerations, determining.

Black people in Baton Rouge have more in common with white people in Livingston Parish than black people in Lafayette from a congressional redistricting standpoint.

Plans vetoed.  (https://twitter.com/LouisianaGov/status/1501720629820723200?s=20&t=Z4IGJ-mKNoa-sTlTqQpqoQ)

The LA GOP will find a way to fail… a lot of them aren’t really conservative, they’re just R because that’s what the voters want

JBE will play horse trading politics and get what he wants just barely

I’m no expert on LA politics, but they had a supermajority and change to pass, why would it be hard to veto?

It passed with 1 D, 1 I who aren’t a lock to override.

They are from very conservative districts.

We’re just a state that wants a conservative nationally but moderate Democrats in local and state politics

Firmly disagree. But this in fact shows why your argument about communities of interest doesn't work: We won't agree on what communities of interest are.

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1509226461550583809?s=20&t=dO1mw2nsU4o...

Veto overridden.

The vote was all R's + all 3 indies and Francis Thompson. 2 of the indies are in deep red seats but one of them is actually from a Biden +10 district that is now Biden +8 and is actually fairly liberal. IIRC he voted against the trans sports bill from the beginning and also the abortion bill.

Thompson is a relic from the past: in Legislature since 1975, and the only Democratic state legislator in nation, who (IMHO) can be unconditionally named "a conservative" (he is extremely conservative on social issues and (somewhat less) conservative leaning on economy too). When he retires (possibly - in 2023) "conservative Democrats"will become a memory, just as "liberal Republicans" are.. 

Eh you still have a few in South Carolina and Alabama. Rep. Ott and Rep. Atkinson both voted for the heartbeat bill and generally err on the more conservative side. Both are dynasty heirs, taking their dad’s seat when he retired

Yeah, but in my opinion they are more "right of center" type - generally conservative, but rather "moderate conservative"... Besides Thompson there is no one comparable with pre- (or - about) 2010 Democratic legislators, some of which were really conservative (examples: Fannin in Louisiana, Butler (who is a Republican state senator in Alabama now) in Alabama, and whole group (Browning, Stevens, White, Smith a. o.) in Mississippi)...

Well I’ll be pleasantly surprised… now the R supermajority needs to show their balls on other things that matter

Favorable redistricting is an issue that unites almost anyone in party. Other issues - not so much...