Title: Who were the Buchanan voters in FL? Post by: phk on February 02, 2011, 07:21:46 PM Original Source: http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~bhansen/vote/florida.pdf
I recreated a lot of the work on Stata on my own using the 2000 Census and Atlas vote total. Analyzed Variables
Regression Function log(P) = 2.146 -0.0415*A65-0.0132*B-0.0349*H-0.0193*C-0.0658*I Summary Statistics n=66 (for all counties in Florida) R2=0.73 σ = .334 Interpretation
Conclusion The results certainly suggest that Buchanan did far better in Palm Beach than what he would have normally expected to do. Or it could be the result of great staff placement in Palm Beach itself. The butterfly ballot itself definitely had the potential to be a bigger spoiler than Nader. Considering Palm Beach County has a high proportion of elderly, college-educated and high income people. In general it also is likely true that Buchanan hurt Bush amongst downscale but conservative White voters. Title: Re: Who were the Buchanan voters in FL? Post by: Del Tachi on February 04, 2011, 04:47:01 PM Who were the Buchanan voters in FL?
Old folks in Palm Beach County who got cheated by the butterfly ballot. Title: Re: Who were the Buchanan voters in FL? Post by: SingingAnalyst on May 07, 2015, 07:28:54 PM Original Source: http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~bhansen/vote/florida.pdf I recreated a lot of the work on Stata on my own using the 2000 Census and Atlas vote total. Analyzed Variables
Regression Function log(P) = 2.146 -0.0415*A65-0.0132*B-0.0349*H-0.0193*C-0.0658*I Summary Statistics n=66 (for all counties in Florida) R2=0.73 σ = .334 Interpretation
Conclusion The results certainly suggest that Buchanan did far better in Palm Beach than what he would have normally expected to do. Or it could be the result of great staff placement in Palm Beach itself. The butterfly ballot itself definitely had the potential to be a bigger spoiler than Nader. Considering Palm Beach County has a high proportion of elderly, college-educated and high income people. In general it also is likely true that Buchanan hurt Bush amongst downscale but conservative White voters. The butterfly ballot in Palm Beach Co is what lost the election for Gore. The number by which Buchanan's Palm Beach vote exceeded expectations exceeds 537. Also, if even 1% of Nader voters in FL had voted for Gore, Gore also would have won. Title: Re: Who were the Buchanan voters in FL? Post by: JonathanSwift on May 31, 2015, 07:48:33 PM Absolutely!! The butterfly ballot in Palm Beach Co is what lost the election for Gore. The number by which Buchanan's Palm Beach vote exceeded expectations exceeds 537. Also, if even 1% of Nader voters in FL had voted for Gore, Gore also would have won. Or if 0.5% of the 200,000 Florida Democrats who voted for Bush had voted for Gore instead. |