Talk Elections

Good evening, gentlemen:

Here is a revised 2008 swing map for each town in New England (I made an inferior one some time ago) that uses the Atlas swing color scheme.

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More maps are forthcoming, including 2008 Trend. I will also take requests for any maps involving recent presidential elections in New England. I'll use this thread to post them and hopefully get into some discussions about the results.

Yours truly,

hc

And here is the trend map.

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If you have time, I'd be interested in seeing a plus/minus map for Kerry compared to the average of 2000 and 2008, to see the areas (especially in Mass.) where Kerry was more popular.

I'll get on it tomorrow. In the mean time, check these results out:

Wendell, MA

2000 Presidential

Gore 210
Nader 166
Bush 76

2004 Democratic Presidential Primary

Kucinich 96
Kerry 58
Edwards 23

In 2008, the town voted 84% for Obama - truly a progressive's paradise.

ROFL  Nader comming in second  ;D

Here's what you requested.

Red=Kerry outperforms Gore/Obama average by 5+%
Light pink=Kerry outperforms Gore/Obama average by 0-5%
Light blue=Kerry underperforms Gore/Obama average by 0-5%
Blue=Kerry underperforms Gore/Obama average by 5+%

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This map is not that great, since most of the overperforming Kerry towns had Gore/Obama averages weighed down by a high Nader vote in 2000. The map just looks like an overall Dem/Rep strength map.

If you like, I can try this again, but this time comparing Kerry percentages to the Gore and Nader/Obama average.

Freedom town ! :D

Not too surprised about my town trending GOP... it was a Silber town in 1990, but Baker won it with a majority.

Keep it coming, HC!

Here's a bit of the 2004 swing map. Later on I'll do a 2000-2008 swing.

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2004 swing is done. So, here's 2004 swing and 2008 swing side-by-side.

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And here's your ordinary 2000 Presidential map.

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Many, many more to come. Any requests?

Interesting to see the difference as soon as one crosses the MA-NH line.  I would've thought it would be much more gradual.

I was wondering, I have been working on a precinct level chart of the vote for Connecticut and Massachusetts for Nov 2008.  I also am working on charts of Connecticut (forget Mass) with the poll, absentee and other totals.  Have you gotten any of this in your search?  If you have could I send you what I have so far and hopefully get more info?  or something. thx.

Lephead, I'd love to see how you managed to put together some of those results - did you have to go grubbing town by town? I have a few precinct results here and there, maybe I can help you out. Send me a message.

I just looked it up on wiki and was somewhat surprised to discover that it's not a college town. Any explanation  for its voting behavior?

It's not a college town per se, but it's located so close to Smith and UMass Amherst and Hampshire College that I suspect its population (along with Pelham and Shutesbury and Leverett) is comprised largely of commuting faculty and students at the colleges.

Here is the first part of Nader strength, 2000. Increments of 2%.

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Also, it looks like Nader (or maybe Buchanan!?) won a town in Southern VT in 2000. Which one and why? :P

That town is Searsburg. In fact, Harry Browne, the Libertarian candidate won there.

Searsburg has a really strange electoral history. Bush recieved zero votes there in 2000, and it was the only town to be won by both Kerry and McCain in Vermont (amidst all the others swinging very hard to Obama). It was also won by Ross Perot in 1992, one of only four that he won there.

This thread is great. Thank you for all these beautiful maps ! :)

My pleasure. Here's one which is shaping up to be one of the most beautiful:
Swing from 2000 to 2008.

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LOL @ Vermont.

Wow, epic ! :)

Will we have the trend too ?



Fixed. ;)

Sure, give me a little time.

For now, here's the complete Nader strength map.

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What were Nader's strongest towns in Maine and Vermont?

In Vermont:

Marlboro 27.3%
Plainfield 20.4%
Guilford 16.8%
Landgrove 16.4%
Putney 16.2%
Calais 14.9%
Worcester 14.8%
Johnson 14.7%
Burlington 14.4%
Newfane 14.2%

In Maine:

Great Pond Plantation 22.6%
Isle au Haut 19.6%
Perkins Township 18.2%
The Forks Plantation 16.7%
Unity 16.2%
Brighton Plantation 14.6%
Islesboro 14.5%
Township 3, Northern Division 14.3%
Starks 14.0%
Montville 13.9%

Here are two more maps that I dredged up from my archives.

I really don't know why I made this one, but here it is. Huckabee strength in 2008 primaries, increments of 2%. Rhode Island is dark because at that point Huckabee was the only real opposition to McCain.

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And, for reference, New England population (2000).

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This thread is absolutely magnificent.

Thanks, I do my best.

Here's the complete swing 2000-2008.

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Here is the 2004 Democratic primary. Strength maps to come.

Interesting fact: John Edwards won Maidstone, VT as a write-in.

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Fyi, I've been trying to get info for 2004 Maine, but my search has not born fruit yet... :(

Here is the 1992 presidential election. I can't find data for New Hampshire, but even without it it's a new favorite of mine.

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1992 New Hampshire presidential election is in the 1993 Manual (http://www.archive.org/stream/manualforgeneral53newh#page/n5/mode/2up).

If you want, I can send you an image of the town map the Atlas has for NH.

The whole image is now complete (and wow, is it beautiful!):

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Thanks again, realisticidealist.

While you're on 1992, you could do the Democratic primary. The VT and CT results probably aren't available (unless you can get CT which would be awesome, plus it would be a quite interesting map), but the other states would be interesting, especially the Maine results that I have up on the Wiki. I would recommend that you use the candidate colors in my primary thread though. ;)

Before I do 1992, I will take care of the 2000 primaries for both parties.

Until then, I keep the maps coming. This is Edwards strength in the '04 primaries. Increments of 5%. Edwards was not on the ballot in VT, and in no town anywhere in NE does he break 50%.

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Awesome map ! :D

Here's another. Kucinich strength 2004 in increments of 3%. Pretty much all statistical noise outside of Western Mass.

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Yeah, that would be great.

For the first time ever, ladies and gentlemen: 2000, 2004 and 2008 presidentials side-by-side-by-side. Zoom out to 50% for best results.

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Next up: 2000 Democratic primary.

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Yay! I've been waiting for these. :)

I know it's a huge and boring thing, but I'd be really interested in a town map for Wallace in 1968 if data is available.

Maybe realisticidealist can help me out with this, but I only know I can get data easily from MA, CT and probably NH. A few phone calls might do the trick for the rest, though.

You're going to have to email or call Vermont, Rhode Island, and Maine for anything that far back. The other three should be online.

When you have time, could you please do % of French speakers? I know Maine and VT have quite a few and NH has some in the far north, though it's probably negligible in CT, RI, and MA. The U.S. census should have that data. I'd be interested in seeing how far the French-speaking zone extends into the U.S.

Yes. Be aware, however, that between this thread and the New York thread (and my college mid-terms), I have a considerable backlog of requests. It could take a few weeks.

If it's all right with you I am willing to make the new england french% map.

Perfect. Let me know if you need anything.

Next map to come: 2000 Presidential Primary (Republican)

In the mean time, here are a few demographic maps I made a while ago:

Percent White

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Percent Black

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Percent Hispanic

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Percent Native

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Percent Asian

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And, at last, here's 2000 Republican Primary. (PNG!)

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Looks like they didn't really like Bush in NE... ;)

I know it's not a Presidential map, but I couldn't resist. These are New England's 2010 gubernatorial races.

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I am not sure if you have the offical results for the Maine governor race but if you don't the maine sos has posted them.

Yes, I have them. Do you see a mistake in the map?

Excellent work, as always.

i never realized before there was a swing in south NewEng (incl MA!) toward Bush 2000-2004

Interesting how NE gov elections were pretty close everywhere in 2010.

I am not sure if you were including others but if you were some of the shades in Maine like Lewiston is in the 40% shade  and according to the Maine sos it is the 30% shade also Sanford on the website went for Paul LePage  and you have it going to Eliot Cutler. If you care to change it you may want to take a look at the Maine sos website.

Oh, that's right. I made that map before the Maine SOS had released its figures. I'll have to go through the data and fix it. Thanks for the alert, twinaustin.

I am very sorry I have been takeing so long on the french% map. I hope to get it done soon. Is there any way to find a Maine pricent map? I would like to start another map if that existed.

Do you mean "precinct" or "percent" map?

I meant precinct, sorry for the error.

I love the word "pricent", it's an interesting combination. ;)

While I fix the 2010 gubernatorial, here's 2008 (and I'll do swings later):

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All except New Hampshire and Massachusetts were open seats.

From the 2008 and 2010 gubernatorial data I assembled, I made this little map comparing Libertarian strength in New Hampshire:

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An evolution of John Lynch's scores would be interesting.

Ask and you shall receive, Antonio. I'll add Lynch's '04 performance once I finish the New England Gubernatorial map for 2006.

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Thank you, homelycooking. :)

It's my pleasure - in the most literal sense of those words.

So, let's keep the good times rolling. Here are some third party performances in gubernatorial elections:

Anthony Pollina '08 in Vermont

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This hypothetical map compares Douglas' percentage to the combined percentages of Symington and Pollina:

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Let me know if you have requests.

Some Massachusetts maps now.

Tim Cahill strength '10 (increments of 2 percent)

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Swing in the gubernatorial race from 2006 to 2010

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Provincetown swung D, despite Healey opposing gay marriage and Baker supporting it?

Hard to believe, isn't it? Nevertheless, it did swing from R to D, and it was the strongest such swing in the state (5.5%).

Here's the 2009 Democratic primary for US Senate.

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...and the candidate with the most votes who is not Martha Coakley:

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Michael Capuano: Red
Alan Khazei: Green
Steven Pagliuca: Yellow

If you don't mind, I'd love to see a map for Mihos in '06.

Same scale as the Cahill map: Mihos '06.

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Looks like the Khazei map could double as "percent Jewish."

Are Cahill and Mihos from the same town?

Cahill is from Quincy, Mihos is from Yarmouth.

Interesting. Why did Mihos do so well in Quincy then?

He ran a populist campaign that appealed to WWC voters, also the centerpiece of his platform (besides "I really, really, really hate Kerry Healey") was to increase state aid to cities by 40%.

Here are 2006 and 2010 Gubernatorial Maps side-by-side:

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Barbara Merrill is from Appleton, in the center of that green area in Knox County, Maine.

Beautiful maps. :)

For Antonio:

Here is the Lynch evolution map with all of Lynch's scores since 2004 (his first run at the governorship).

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Here are 2004 Gubernatorial and 2008 Gubernatorial as well.

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Thanks to Dallasfan and the map he posted from Massachusetts from 1912, I was able to paste on Connecticut as well.

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This one is really stunning, and sort of hypnotic if you look at it for a moment:

Perot strength 1992, increments of 4%

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Maine is just wow... :o

yeah it looks like you just cross the border from NH and there's a jump.
I wonder if his French name helped him out at all there.

very nice collaboration on the 1912 map! i can't wait to see the whole New England town map on that one.

Perot isn't a French name. Perreault is.

The complete New England map for 1912 could take a while, since VT, ME and RI are somewhat reluctant to hand over their data.

Here's a fun map. This is the 2006 Republican Primary for Governor in Maine.

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Blue: Chandler Woodcock (Farmington)
Yellow: Peter Mills (Cornville)
Green: David Emery (St George)

Great stuff here - one note - is anything keeping you from posting the maps to the gallery?  if the webhost of the images goes away, the images will all be lost and blank boxes appear in the thread.
Enjoy,
Dave

Thanks Dave, I should get started on that. (But I'll have to change all of my images: the gallery apparently doesn't like bitmaps.)

Use .png

Here's a fun primary map from the 2010 Republican gubernatorial race. Blue is Paul Lepage.

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Another map from the above primary: Strongest candidate who is not Paul Lepage.
Aroostook County was really painful to fill with color - every other town had a 2nd place tie.

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Red: Leslie Otten
Green: Peter Mills
Yellow: Bruce Poliquin
Orange: William Beardsley
Blue: Matthew Jacobson
Purple: Stephen Abbott

I'm back in business! Let loose the maps.

1948 Presidential

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Yay, it's back ! :D

Too bad there are so much missing data.

Maine and Rhode Island only go back to 1990 on their websites. I'll have to call them for the older stuff.

1996 Presidential is now complete:

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For the first time ever, ladies and gentlemen: 1992-2008 presidentials! Five very large and very beautiful maps. Zoom out to 75% for best results.

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Beautiful ! :D

Now I want some trend maps. ;)

All right, Antonio.

The next one I'll do will be 2000-2008 trend.

 I wouldn't have suspected the GOP won so many more towns in VT in 2000 than in 92 or 96.

That's partially due to Nader and partially due to Perot, among other things.

Mostly due to Perot, I think. In counties where Bush did well in 2000 (Orange, Caledonia, Orleans), Perot won between 20 and 30% of the vote in most towns in '92 and between 10 and 20% in '96. The vote for Nader on average in '96 was not very strong, and Clinton won almost all of Nader's best towns anyway.

Especially for Antonio, the trend map from 2000-2008.

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As always, I'm open to requests.

Wow, that's beautiful ! :D The huge republican trend in the South and democratic in the North is quite striking... Really a great map, thank you. :)

If I can ask you again, I'd really like to see 1996-2008, then 1992-2008, etc... :)

Here is 1992 Perot strength compared with 1996 Perot strength, same scale to both maps.

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2002 Gubernatorial races are complete, with a very unusual Maine map.

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it looks like the base for the parties in Maine switched between  2002 and 2006!

Sort of. A big reason why Democrats did well in Aroostook, Penobscot, Hancock and Washington counties in 2002 was due to the fact that Baldacci is from Bangor and Ciancette is from South Portland, which suggests that voters up north and down east preferred the candidate who was geographically closer to their interests, even if that meant voting Democratic. In 2006, the Republican, Chandler Woodcock, was from Farmington, so that effect was lessened.

Also, in 2002, the Green candidate Jonathan Carter performed very well. If he was taken off the ballot, Baldacci surely would have won some of Augusta or Portland's suburban periphery.

An interesting little map. This shows the last presidential election in which the Republican won each town. The darkest shade is 2008: Hartford hasn't voted Republican since 1924.

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I'll complete this map for New England - that is, if anyone can figure out what it means. ;D

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A great looking map. 1990 Gubernatorial election: Morrison (red) vs Rowland (blue) vs Weicker (green)

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Great work!  :D    Do you have any New York maps from the 80's?

It's enough trouble trying to get New York town/district results from 2010. Sorry, I don't. But if you're looking for something from the last few elections in NY, I can make it for you.


No guesses on this one?

swings from the u.s. senate election, 2006, to the senate election, 2010?
no idea

Not even close. I'll give you a hint: there's something definite and specific about Somers and Suffield and Montville which makes them so blue - something very closely related to the red-ness of Bloomfield and Hartford and New Haven. However, not all dark red towns are the result of this.

And if you really were clever, you'd be trying to find out why Hartland and Hampton are gray.

New England Congressionals, 2010.

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Still nothing? Oh, maybe I'll just have to tell you.

Wow... :o

Alright, fine. This map shows the majority sex in each town: pink and red for a female majority, blue for a male majority. In Hampton and Hartland, there are exactly as many women as men. Suffield, Montville, Cheshire and Somers all contain prisons and therefore are mostly male - Somers is over 60% male. Many of the males incarcerated in prisons in those towns are residents of pink-colored cities and towns: Hartford, Bloomfield, Hamden, New Haven, Bridgeport, etc.

An interesting case: Mansfield contains both a prison and a university. The male-heavy prison and female-heavy university (UConn) nearly cancel themselves out, and the town is split almost evenly between the sexes.

what a neat puzzle! :)

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1988 Presidential.

Can you possibly do 1984 Presidential? How about 1972?

HC, I'd be interested in seeing RI-Sen. 2000 and ME-2 2002. Both feature a pro-life Democrat running against a pro-choice Republican.

As does one of the Maine gubernatorial elections.

Here are the RI senate elections since 2000. The race you were looking for isn't all that interesting.

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The other requests have been noted. I'll get on them soon.

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Epic map time, ladies and gentlemen.


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1980 Presidential.

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Anderson won exactly one town in the four states I have data for - Pinkham's Grant, New Hampshire - which was also his strongest performance (40% - two of five votes)

However, he came very, very close to winning the college towns of Hanover (Dartmouth) and Durham (UNH), breaking thirty percent in each.

Carter won two towns in New Hampshire - Hanover (just barely) and Cambridge (two of the three votes)

Really ? I remember reading on wikipedia Anderson didn't win a single precinct... ???

Wikipedia lied.

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I'll make an Anderson strength map today.

What's with the 1970s-1980s rump Democratic base around Fairfield, VT and most of Franklin County. In 1988 there's also that weird Democratic area in Addison and Washington Counties which is weird. What explains that?

The Addison and Washington areas aren't particularly weird - they remain quite Democratic to this day, and that hasn't changed too much since the 1970s. The explanation is simple: those towns are close to an important college, and thus are home to numerous professors, college workers and students. Towns like Strafford, Norwich and Thetford (just across the river from Dartmouth) and Cornwall and Weybridge (near Middlebury) have unusually high numbers of people employed in "educational services" and "post-secondary education". Since those towns are so small, it doesn't take a lot of college-related voters to swing their politics significantly to the left.

I should do some further research into "college town peripheries", since they exist all across the Northeast.

But as for Franklin County, I'm not too sure. The only thing particularly remarkable about Fairfield, for instance, is its huge dependence on agriculture, but I don't understand why that would mean more votes for Democrats. The St Albans area also was a stopover-point for immigrants passing through Canada, but again, that doesn't explain the towns to the east. My best guess relates to the nearby industries: manufacturing in St Albans and asbestos mining in Belvidere.

I hope that helps, Hash.

Anderson strength, in 3% increments.

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Maine referenda.

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Green signifies, from left to right:

Support for ban on same-sex marriage (2009 Prop 1)
Support for easing restrictions on medical marijuana (2009 Prop 5)
Support for Oxford County casino (2008 Prop 2)
Support for racetrack and casino in Washington County (2007 Prop 1)

Senate elections from Connecticut, 1982-2010.

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Do you have larger versions of those maps?  I can't read the captions.

I can't make the map any bigger inside the post, but here's (http://oi54.tinypic.com/292ns0k.jpg) the link.

Sweetness.

It's been a while.

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Do you have the 2000 CT Congressional town map.

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You should have no trouble telling where one district ends and another begins. ;)

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Top two elections are 1982 and 1986 - William O'Neill.

Great work, I especially like the 1994 map.  :) 

This is an interesting map - vote for county sheriffs, 1994 and 1998, the last two elections held before the positions were constitutionally abolished.

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Decided to make this map tonight in honor of Sen. George McLean, whose beautiful Game Refuge I had the honor of hiking through this afternoon.

1922 CT Senate Election: George P. McLean (R) vs Thomas J. Spellacy (D)

Necroing an ancient thread, but it seems like most of homely's maps are gone. I'm fairly certain he did some more contemporary presidential maps. Does anybody know if they still exist somewhere? I don't want to do work that's already been done.

If you check his atlas image gallery on his profile (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=myimages;u=3962), you can see a lot of his past maps were also uploaded there.