Talk Elections

Not much is probably going to happen in Arkansas, but I thought I'd throw together a 2-2 map of the state:

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AR-01 (blue) becomes a completely safe Republican district; it went 65-32 for McCain.
AR-02 (green) adds Jefferson County in order to become more Democratic; it's now 51-48 McCain.
AR-03 (purple) shrinks a bit. Safe Republican, naturally, it's 64-34 McCain.
AR-04 (red) reaches up across the eastern half of the state, but in order to keep Mike Ross satisfied, doesn't turn the district into a Democratic stronghold. It's 56-41 McCain.

Since the state requires no county splits, the population numbers are a little high for AR-03 and a little low in AR-02 (by about 5,000 voters). AR-01 and AR-04 are pretty close to the target.

Trying to keep the basic setup leads to some pretty strange transfers, IIRC, drawing all the districts northwestwards. At least, the way I did it once with estimates data did. Doing something like your map would arguably make more sense... at least that still has three districts that represent a recognizable region; though the blue district gets it up the shaft in that respect.

It looks like Logan has a small piece of AR-3.

Whoops, you're right; thankfully fixing that evens out the population a bit.

I'm not sure that there is actually a requirement of no county splits.  I couldn't find anything in the Constitution.

In 2001, the legislature enacted the current county-based boundaries, and then added a section that defined what would happen if those were overturned.

AR-1 has a perfect population (a deviation of 0 from the ideal of 668,360.

AR-2 was short 2,302 and would have taken 4 precincts from Pope county.

AR-4 was short 2.094 and would have taken 5 precincts from Franklin county.

AR-3 has an excess of 4,396 and would have lost the above areas.

So they actually had a 0.97% total deviation,  and AR-2 was 0.65% over.

arkansas is one of the few southern states left where democrats control just about everything in the statehouse. I expect them to draw as favorable a map to democrats as possible.

They don't have that big of a majority.

If you are Democratic representative from a weird appendage, do you vote for the bill?

They have been so dominant for so long, they probably aren't easily whipped.

Here's my first version of a remap based on whole counties. I only moved 13 counties and substantially improved on the population equality from the 2000 map. This version has an average deviation of 761 (0.10%) and a range of 2151 (0.30%).

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CD 1 (cyan): 727,456
CD 2 (yellow): 729,395
CD 3 (forest): 729,607
CD 4 (pink): 729,460

Edit: The map was incorrectly painted in the OP, and is now correct. The variances were correct.

In 2001, they actually amended the existing redistricting statute, as opposed to simply striking everything and replacing (see Act 1840, 2001 session).  Only 4 counties were shifted:

Baxter from 3 to 1; and  Logan, Polk, and Scott from 3 to 4.

So they might opt for less equality, it there are fewer adjustments.

One of two -if you count West Virginia as a southern state.

Democrats still control the Mississippi statehouse, though they'll lose it this year.

Maryland?

It is possible to move only 4 counties and have the population be within the same range as the current map. Move Pope, Johnson, and Newton from CD 3 to CD 4, and move Van Buren from CD 2 to CD 1. The resulting map has an average deviation of 0.35%, a range of 0.98%, and CD 2 has the maximum deviation of 0.70% over the ideal.

However, if someone doesn't like the map that moves a minimum of counties, they could sue. They would claim that it was practicible to move the 13 counties in my example and have a smaller deviation and range, yet still keep counties whole.

Edit: Here's the map and populations for this version.
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CD 1 (cyan): 727,342
CD 2 (yellow): 734,082
CD 3 (forest): 726,940
CD 4 (pink): 727,554

I think he was talking about Democratic-controlled state legislatures in the South -not individual chambers.  


When did the Confederacy ever officially claim Maryland?  

When did the Confederacy ever include all of the South?

Maryland isn't part of the South demographically or culturally, and barely is latitudinally.

As for Arkansas's map, any chance the legislature will make a map that will strengthen the Dems' chance at either AR-1 or AR-2?

The map I describe with the minimum county movement is probably better for the Dems. However, if it is the GOP has a strong challenge along the lines I suggest.

However, its hard to know what data the Dems should use to improve their chances. The federal and state races are strongly diverging, and the federal votes in the last decade don't look good. Their best play would be to redivide CD 1 and 2 and try to link Little Rock to the Mississippi.

Which is almost identical to the situation that they had in 2001, when the statute included additional language that would have split two counties if anyone had challenged the plan in court.  The only difference is that AR-1 had the precisely ideal population in 2000.

I don't think that Arkansas has a legal requirement to not split counties, nor to ignore existing districts like in Iowa.

So Arkansas will argue they have a rational state purpose: to not split counties and to maintain existing representative-constituent relationships, while getting under 1% total deviation.  And the legislature has already expressed a policy preference to split counties rather than do large reshuffling merely to make districts a couple 1000 closer.  They also have a historical record of similar plans.

Historically, Maryland was divided North/South, with the Chesapeake serving as a transportation link rather than a barrier.   There weren't any Washington suburbs.

The Eastern Shore is very much like the Deep South, culturally speaking.

Here's a map that does what I suggested. CD 2 (yellow) would have voted for Obama by about 3% over McCain. Needless to say, CD 1 becomes hard R. It also does increase the GOP lean of CD 4 by a couple of points, however.

As with other plans for AR, counties are kept intact. The average deviation is 1956 (0.27%) and the range is 4866 (0.67%).

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CD 1 (cyan): 731,806
CD 2 (yellow): 730,066
CD 3 (forest): 726,940
CD 4 (pink): 727,106

() (http://img101.imageshack.us/i/arkansaswholecountries.jpg/)

D1 (blue): 708,934 (-602)

D2 (orange): 710,676 (+1,140)

D3 (green): 710,264 (+728)

D4 (red): 708,269 (-1,267)

Why do I have a different state population total to you, Muon? I'm using new estimates on 2000 block groups.

Muon is using the updated 2010 Census Data, you can find the population by county for some states including Arkansas on the Census Bureau website.  The 2010 Census Data update is not yet available on Dave's site (though some other states are).

That's right. I loaded the county data from Census 2010 into spreadsheet and used that to build districts. My plans are equivalent to real plans that AR may be considering.

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AR-1: 728637
AR-2: 729800
AR-3: 729607
AR-4: 727874


Deviation of less than 2000, and no county splits. If only the GOP there got its act together, the writing is on the wall here.

I'm guessing on this map, Ross could hold the green district for 1 cycle, and it would go back GOP when he leaves. Griffin is just completely hosed in the red district.

Conceding one in the hopes of holding the other three throughout, without giving up the rocksolid northwestern seat. And not an unreasonable map, either.

Yep. It's not a horrid map for the GOP (although they're trying to push for a 4-0 map, like the current one. Ross' district is going Republican when he leaves).

It's hard to see how the Democrats draw a 2-2 map without mashing counties, which is probably where the Fayetteville to the 4th plan comes in. That plan tendrils in the City of Fayetteville into the green district, and ends up connecting Fayetteville and Pine Bluff and Chicot County in the opposite corner of the state.

As it stands, this 4 corners map happens to dump all the Democrats into the red district. The question is whether Arkansas is going the way of South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, Lousiana, and the rest of the South, and when.

If you're going to go for a 3-1 map, why screw over a GOP incumbent? Why not bring the Little Rock district west instead and put the Dems in Ross's district? Ross isn't even 50 yet, and a map like yours could dissuade him from a gubernatorial bid if he feels he's the only one who could hold the district.

Well, the Democrats control redistricting here, so any GOP plan is unlikely to pass. But if you're the Democrats:

1. The above map gets rid of a Republican incumbent, which will make Pryor very happy.
2. The above map guarantees you 1 seat even if Barack Obama shellacks your state party just as he did in Louisiana.
3. The above map gives you 2-2 as long as you can convince Ross to stay.
4. The above map makes the NAACP happy.
5. The above map looks clean and adheres to traditional principles there.


The GOP would keep Pulaski, Jefferson, and the Delta in 3 different districts and maintain R+8 or higher in all 4 districts. The Democrats, well, they don't seem to know what they want to do at this point.

Pulaski is the largest county and the state and its heavily Democratic (for Arkansas). In the long term, the GOP would want it in the Democratic vote dump. That red district is 53% Obama. Ross lives in the southwestern corner of the state and its really inconvenient to put him in with the Delta anyway.

Oh yeah, that's right. I forgot there was still a place where Democrats control redistricting. In that case, your map does seem sensible from the Democrats' perspective. Whether or not Ross stays in the House is irrelevant since the best the Democrats can do without him is 3-1 anyway.

Funny thing is, Dems are going to think something like the current map gives them a chance to get back to 3-1, possibly, under the right conditions. They didn't really do worse in Arkansas in 2010 than in 1994, after all. While Reps are going to think something like the current map gives them a chance to go 4-0 and be like other Southern state parties.
This map makes the most sense from a bipartisan POV.

I created this map for 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans. I actually submitted this plan to the AR redistricting website.

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Blue- Mike Ross (D) Ross trades most of his western territory for nearly the entire delta region. I had to make this district winnable for a Democrat in the future when Ross moves onto bigger things.

Green- Bill Halter (D) I designed this district so that former Lt. Governor Bill Halter could make a political comeback; he would likely defeat incumbent Tim Griffin in this district. Really, any Democrat could win here; this new district would actually have gone for Kerry over Bush. Its anchored in Little Rock and Pine Bluff.

Purple- Steve Womack (R) The third district is reconfigured so that it encompasses nearly the entire northern border. Its population base is still in Benton and Washington counties. Womack is still quite safe.

Red- Open Seat. Under this plan, Rep. Rick Crawford would live in Mike Ross’ district, thus this seat is open. Basically, I made this out of the counties I had left over from the other districts. It contains mostly rural central and western counties. Likely Republican.

What is the PVI on that blue district? It looks lost, anyway, once Ross leaves.

By my calculations, it's about an R+5, and trending hard toward the GOP.  In Arkansas, that's as close to a 2-2 map as you're going to get- the district was won by Gore and only narrowly lost by Kerry (margin of 1,454).

I think it's premature to talk about districts in Arkansas trending hard toward the GOP given that if Hillary Clinton had been the nominee, she'd have won handily. 

Thats right, the blue district is down to R+5 from R+7. Bush would have carried it by less than 2500 votes.

Here are the district PVI's based on the 2004 election only (2008 skewed the data way towards the GOP):

CD1 (Red): R+10
CD2 (Green): D+4
CD3 (Purple): R+12
CD4 (Blue): EVEN

Both the CD1 and CD3 would be off limits for the Dems. They should have no problem winning the Pulaski-based district. I'm pretty sure a white Democrat would hold CD4 after Ross moves on.

What is the timeframe for Ross moving on up? Is he going to try to run for Governor when Beebe's term ends?

They would have a decent shot for sure. But the current CD-2 was 51% Bush and of course went Republican when it became vacant. The current CD-4 was also 51% Bush and Ross has conceded that he'll be the last Democrat to hold it.

Obviously, though, its the best you can do.

Edit. They just unveiled the Dem plan.

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Yikes...thats gonna be a tough sell. Surely, they can do better...

How Republican is the AR-3 in that map since they took most of the Dem areas out of it and put them in Ross's district?

68% McCain or so.

I thought that no county splits were allowed.

How much more Dem does AR-1 become?

County splits are allowed, I think--it's just tradition that they haven't done so.

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

Looks like they're shooting for another 3-1 Dem map.  No other reason to keep Little Rock in with all its heavily Republican Suburbs like that when it could easily be added to the 1st to swing it towards the Democrats more.

I'd say only slightly more Democratic.

The only conservative county that it takes in is Van Buren from CD2. Otherwise, it adds Desha, Chicot, Drew and most of Lincoln, all of which are fairly liberal.

Its new PVI would probably be about R+6, down from R+8. Still, Causey would be very competitive with Crawford in a rematch.


A 3-1 Democratic plan could end up as a huge dummymander. They'd be better off making 2 Dem districts and conceding the other 2.

Under this plan, here is what would need to happen for a 3-1 D delegation:

-If Ross leaves at some point, they could draft Dustin McDaniel (who lives in  Fayettville); he could hold this district

-Causey would need to defeat Crawford; actually in neutral year, this would be a true tossup

-Bill Halter, or some other top-tier Democratic state legislator, would need to take out Griffin

I think 2-2 should have been the target as well, but it shouldn't surprise me that they would push limits here.

Shane Broadway could probably defeat Griffin in that AR-2, he lost the Lt. Governor race in '10, but won Saline County, where he's reasonably popular. If Democrats could squeeze out good turnout in the Delta counties, a Democrat could win AR-1.

Putting aside the northwestern shenanigans, they moved all of five counties around: Chicot, Desha, Drew, and Lincoln (well, almost all of Lincoln) got moved from AR-04 to AR-01, and Van Buren got moved from AR-02 to AR-01. Those counties, total, voted for McCain by a 53.5 to 43.7 margin, but it's all of 27,605 votes. It moves the district from 58.7 - 38.4 McCain to 58.2 - 38.9 McCain. A whole one-percent shift.

AR-02 loses one county and goes from 54.0 - 44.1 McCain to 53.8 - 44.3 McCain.

Without the Fayetteville numbers (I understand it went for Obama), AR-04 goes from 58.1 - 39.3 McCain to 59.1 - 38.3 McCain.

Arkansas Democrats are either really confident that 2010 was a hiccup, or just really stupid.

Over the last 15 years, stupidity has been pretty much the province of the Arkansas Republican party.  Maybe the Dems want to get in on the action.

I don't really get this.  With Obama on the top of the ticket in 2012, it's not like things are going to really get much better downballot.  It's certainly going to scare away all the decent candidates from running in these types of districts in the 2012.  And if he wins in 2012, then you have him up there again in 2014 to foil all plans.  Not to mention if Ross decides to not run again in either of those two supposed cycles - you could easily get 4-0.  Color me confused.

They must really think that 2010 was just a blip then... They better have some amazing candidates ready to run in AR-1 and AR-2.

There's always a couple of utter fyck ups every gerrymandering round, right? This might be the first.

From what I'm reading, the State Senate has it's version, so they may be a little less ambitious. If they were going to unlock Fayetteville to help Ross, the only other move should have to sink Griffin, by giving him the heavy to moderate Democratic portions of Crawford's district.

Other than the Fayeteville thing I really don't understand why the Republicans are so pissed about this. This could go 4-0 for them when Ross is gone.

Yep, the more I think about this plan, the more I think it will turn out a dummymander...

They shouldn't try to overreach, like Georgia Democrats did in the 90s by targeting their only Republican, Newt Gingrich. Worked out real well for them in 1994.

Here's another crack at a 2-2 map:

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I'm thinking that city Dems and Delta Dems just don't want to share a district and that's what's going to keep them from drawing a district one of them can win.

I've just been thinking that maybe it's because they don't want to give the one safe seat to a black.

You're kind of wasting Pulaski if you went that district west into the 65% McCain Counties.

This is the best plan I've seen come out of the AR Legislature....

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Democrats would obviously concede CD1 and CD3.

CD2 gave Kerry A 52-48 win, but a McCain flipped that margin in 2008. It would have a pretty even PVI. This would also pit Crawford against Griffin.

CD4 would be down to about R+5. Every county that this district takes in voted for Lincoln.

Overall, in terms of PVI's, this map is pretty similar to my plan.

This is, of course, the right answer.

This is what the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan looks like without county lines. To its credit, the deviation of each district is less than 250 people...

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Still, it has a face only an Arkansan Democrat can love...

http://tolbertreport.com/2011/03/28/poll-shows-overwhelming-opposition-from-fayetteville-to-congressional-redistricting-plan/

The results show that 81.8 percent prefer to remain in their current district with Bentonville, Rogers and Fort Smith while 10.2 percent prefer to be moved to a new district with Hot Springs, Pine Bluff and Texarkana. Only 8.0 percent indicated they were unsure.




I think we have our dummymander of the decade. I think they missed the memo in Little Rock; you're supposed to screw the other side in redistricting, not your own guys.

Almost no one in Fayetteville really cares about this issue.

The Tolbert Poll says that they do care and hate the plan. 

I think this plan is bad for the GOP.  It turns an already packed AR 3 into a hyperpacked AR 3. 

It's a poll by a conservative group with an interest in holding off this map and the premise is that you're asking people their opinions. Generally people have no idea what their maps look like or who their representative is. It's a major uphill battle to get people to care about this process stuff.

This.

What the poll says is, when asked, people would prefer in a district with cities near them. Which is pretty much the definition of "they needed to take a poll to tell us that? Wtf?"  (You would have to be copped in to politics to even be aware that the "(named) cities far from here" option means a Democratic congressman.) They did not in any way or form ask people how strongly they feel about the proposal, or if they were previously aware of it.

Yes, it does. The question is - is that enough for Arkansas Democrats to bounce back as they did after 94? Or are they in danger of losing the 1st and 2nd, and perhaps the 4th as well, for good, unless they massively redraw the map?
It really depends on what you expect to happen in the future. It would have been possible to draw a seat that would be safe Democratic even if Congressional voting patterns continue to mirror the last presidential election, as they did in 2010 across the south, but never before. They aren't doing that. It's a major gamble.

They actually asked about interest levels.

http://tolbertreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/PollReportFayetteville2Fourth.pdf

Truthfully, squiggly lines like this have worked well for the Democrats in other places; Georgia in the 1990s, for instance.

In a wholly meaningless way.

Here's another stab at a 2-2 map:

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Ross and Griffin are put in the same district; Griffin could just move to the open AR-02, since it's become safe Republican. Ross might not like having Little Rock in his district, but it would make the district at lot easier for someone else to hold, while still preserving enough of Ross's base to keep him safe from a primary (not that it matters, since he's only going to run for one more term). AR-01 becomes tougher for Crawford to hold; I tried to pull out as many counties in the north as possible and replace them with counties in the south. The district's VAP is only about 28% black, so again, an electable (read: white) Democrat could get through the primary. Nothing interesting to say about AR-03, it just shrunk some.

2008 breakdown (not exact, but close enough; I applied the split counties to whichever county has the majority of the population):

AR-01 (blue) - 52.8 McCain, 44.7 Obama
AR-02 (green) - 65.6 McCain, 31.5 Obama
AR-03 (purple) - 63.6 McCain, 34.0 Obama
AR-04 (red) - 53.3 McCain, 44.7 Obama

I wasn't expecting the numbers to come out quite this balanced, but what the heck.

Johnny's plan is pretty good. It keeps the county lines relatively intact and the blue and red districts would be pretty Dem-friendly.

I was thinking about the 'Fayetteville to the Fourth' plan, and it could actually be a pretty good 2-2 plan. The first district (already a swingy district by AR standards) would get more Democratic and in a neutral year, I'm sure a Democrat could win it. Second, after Ross leaves, Dustin McDaniel (who lives in Fayettvile) could hold it for the Dems.

Is this balanced enough?

I'm looking at it from a environmental and for the Regional District Commanders (USPMC) - (SD) purposes.

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No offense, but you're numbers are way off.

I started to do your plan and the 3rd district has 75000 extra people!

Have you tried Dave's Redistricting App?

http://www.gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/launchapp.html

The Arkansas GOP released this frantic sounded ad about the Fayettevile to the Fourth plan.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzEGVd6WXlU

Lol, someone is wishing they had done a better job at recruiting candidates, especially for state senate. If they would have seriously contested more, they might have flipped atleast one of the chambers.

None taken

It's a logistics - 2 situations with 1 solution I was thinking of.

Thanks for the referral

Is it safe to say Republicans are screwed in Arkansas for another decade?

From the looks of things, quite the contrary.

Democrats do benefit from the Arkansas GOP being more than a bit unorganized, which is why the legislature stayed in Democratic hands, many Dem seats were uncontested.

The plan was amended earlier today that exchanged some territory between districts, but not anything did much politically.

Not at all. They could easily have all 4 seats post-Ross, not to mention winning the legislature(depending on the gerrymandering done there of course).

No, this map seems to almost maintain the status quo, actually. Once Ross loses or retires it will probably be 4R 0D. Fine by me, the fewer blue dogs, the better.

Look, I am no fan of most of the blue dogs, but this is the same type of thinking that has cost Republicans a number of seats over the past few election cycles ("who cares if a Democrat wins, at least it's one less "RINO").  The 2010 Delaware Senate race is a prime example of this (and it would've probably cost Republicans even more seats in 2010 had it been a normal year).  I have no problem with primarying blue-dogs in areas where a more liberal Democrat could just as easily keep the seat/district in Democratic hands.  However, there are places (such as Ross' district) where the only choices are either a blue-dog or a right-wing Republican.  The blue-dog may be a pain in the rear sometimes, and he/she may only vote with his/her party some of the time, but I can promise you that the Republican (especially one from a district like AR-4) will NEVER vote with the Democrats on important issues (and often not minor ones). 

Agreed. It's far better to have a majority with a few moderates than a perpetual minority with an "ideologically pure" party. People like Nancy Pelosi didn't win the House for the Democrats in 2006, people like Heath Shuler did. You would do well to remember that.

This is the "modified" version of the 'Fayettville to the Fourth' plan that they've come up with.

...And I thought it couldn't get much worse than the original....Silly me!

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Arkansas Democrats are either politically retarded or letting their racism get in the way of smart politics. I'm not sure which.

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I don't suppose there is any chance of Beebe vetoing that monstrosity, is there? :(

Some Democrats don't like it, particularly ones from Fayetteville, so votes in the state senate might not be there for it to pass.

Another day, another crappy map from the Arkansas Democrats. (http://www.talkbusiness.net/article/IS-THIS-THE-SENATE-COMPROMISE-/1733/)

Yeah, that's a 4-0 map. Thanks, Arkansas.

It's basically close to what the map is now and it really depends on who the Democratic candidates will be in AR-1 and AR-2, local connections still count for a lot in Arkansas.

Has Pine Bluff been moved to Crawford's district?  If so, it weakens him a bit.

The crappy map (http://tolbertreport.com/2011/04/05/senate-congressional-map/) passed the Senate with more support from Republicans than from Democrats.

Well at least this map only splits two counties. I'd have liked them to continue to split none, but that doesn't seem to be popular on either side of the aisle.

Arkansas Dems must really believe Obama won't be re-elected in 2012.  They may be right, but if they're not.

There's a possibility that many AR Dems were aware their map wasn't the best for the party, but voted for a map which placed them in a Congressional District they might be competitive in, rather than having two packed GOP seats.

The bottom line is if they shoot for a 3-1 D delegation, they will likely end up with a 4-0 R delegation after Ross.

With the Fayettville to the Fourth plan, at least Dustin McDaniel could run in the 4th after Ross moves on and hold it.

This map has the worst of everything:
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What's the point of even splitting counties there?

I'm sure the AR Dems, in all their infinite wisdom, have a very strategic reason for county splitting.

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Perhaps Arkansas Democrats see more favorable funding for their state government with the Republican majority that probably isn't going anywhere any time soon? They don't really gain anything otherwise.

Does this map reduce your credence that other state maps will be nearly as aggressive as some here have proposed? It woudn't surprise me if say, Illinois ends up drawing a fairly timid-looking gerrymander. Remember, legislators may not act in their party's best interests.

I hope the Democrats gerrymander the hell out of IL.

Its definately a legitimate point.

Here's the latest iteration of the map...

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Idiots. From a quick look it doesn't even seem like Ross is that safe if Republicans can find a top tier challenger.

KILL IT WITH FIRE!!!!!!

God damn it....

it looks like Louisiana and Arkansas are trading karma.  Dems are getting a decent map in the former, and Republicans are getting a decent map in the latter.

Nah, Jindal isn't going to let them pull any of these stunts with the 4th district.

I agree. The final LA map could be pretty decent. The AR Dems are just screwing themselves over.

Looks like Arkansas is getting that map. (http://arkansasnews.com/2011/04/12/glitch-found-in-redistricting-bill/) I would never have guessed a Democratic legislature would pass a map that will end up being 4-0 Republican by mid-decade.

Bizarre. Awful map for the Dems.

Man, they must all be smoking some pretty strong stuff in the Arkansas legislature.

I mean, seriously, what were they even thinking? ()

What exactly is the logic behind this map?

This is apparently the final map that Beebe will sign.

The state Democrats must have some great candidates or they better hope Obama isn't reelected...

Maybe Dustin McDaniel could move to the 4th after Ross leaves.

I could see Bill Halter being competitive with Tim Griffin the 2nd.

I could see the "right kind" (read: conservative white) of State Senator or State Representative being competitive against Crawford (at least for now, this may change as the state becomes more and more Republican).  I don't know that Bill Halter would be such a great candidate for AR-2, given that he ran an insurgent Senate campaign from the left in 2010 (I don't know if the challenge was viewed in Arkansas as liberal, populist, or "who cares, I hate Lincoln too").  I still think Robbie Wills could be a strong candidate here, and I'm sure the Democrats still have a bench in this district.  We're pretty much screwed in the fourth when Ross runs for Governor (as most expect him to) unless Dustin McDaniel runs (he might need to move) and even then it might be an uphill battle.  However, I suspect he'll run for Governor instead.  Plus, Obama will be on the ballot in 2012, which means that it will be even harder to pickup AR-1 and AR-2.  Basically Arkansas Democrats controlled the trifecta and produced a ridiculous dummymander.

I heard it was done

so.. looks like everybody has a piece of the cooler weather and the scenery for all the campaigning stuff.

on the Halter, Wills tak'n Ar. 2 - looking forward to it.

well, I guess its not all done, done.

There is another good thing, it looks like - all districts have a play/interest in the fayettville shale, a little extra cash.

I'm still super-pissed.

Once again, SSP comes through with numbers on the new districts:

AR-01 - 58.0% McCain, 39.2% Obama; 52.3% Boozman, 42.3% Lincoln
AR-02 - 53.8% McCain, 44.3% Obama; 53.8% Boozman, 42.0% Lincoln
AR-03 - 63.9% McCain, 33.9% Obama; 68.3% Boozman, 26.0% Lincoln
AR-04 - 60.0% McCain, 37.4% Obama; 58.1% Boozman, 36.5% Lincoln

BUMP

I did this while I was bored today.

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Its pretty similar to the first map (http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5_CY5ZAbtK4/TYfXwwmcDXI/AAAAAAAACTc/Cf9q2UFoV7A/s1600/arkredist.png) I made last year.

The changes:

-The third now spans the OK border, instead of the MO border in my original map. This way, the fourth can be based entirely in north-central AR, as opposed to hooking down into the Texarakana region.

-Bill Clinton's home of Hope is now in a Democratic district.

Overall, should be a pretty reliable 2-2. Something like this would have been nice...

Bump.  Here is 21 house districts that I made which are minority majority.

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