Talk Elections

A new poll shows Sen. Jon Tester, Democrat of Montana, trailing his challenger in the 2012 election matchup.

Rep. Denny Rehberg, the state's at-large Republicans member of Congress, appears to have a three point lead over Tester, according to a poll conducted by 47 North Communications.

When asked who they would vote for in the 2012 senate election, 44 percent said they would pick Tester for a second term and 47 percent said Rehberg would be their choice. Nine percent were undecided.

The sampling was small - just 400 likely voters - so the margin of error is 4.65 percent, which technically means the two could be tied at this point or Tester could even have a slight lead. In fact, among independents, Tester came out ahead with 47 percent compared to 44 percent support for Rehberg.

But the numbers show at the very least that Tester is in for a very tough fight for re-election and is one of the most endangered Senate Democrats right now. Look for him to move toward the political center and to distance himself as much as he can from President Obama on big liberal initiatives.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/2011/02/challenger-denny-rehberg-leads-sen-jon-tester-montana-poll#ixzz1Eu7uiTLw

This seems to be a new local MT pollster, never heard of them before.

But it seems to be Rehberg-friendly, because the owners worked for Rehberg:

http://www.fortysevennorth.com/about-us

Not terribly different from the PPP poll though.

PPP had Rehberg leading by 2.

     Tester's in trouble, but not dead by any means. Rehberg is the only representative in the state, so he already has sky-high name recognition. I suspect that both candidates will be viewed by the electorate as incumbents to some extent.

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I'm somewhat surprised that Rehberg isn't leading by more.

Pleased, though, he seems like a nutter.

No way Rehberg is getting 1/4 of Democrats.

It also seems unlikely that independents will only be 16% of the electorate.

It looks like VA,MT,ND,and NEB is gone. The best the Dems can do is go for a power sharing agreement with the GOP by winning the Scott Brown race in MA.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concern_troll#Concern_troll (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concern_troll#Concern_troll)

lol

He's pretty good, he's just not your type. :P





Its not that crazy actually. If he were leading by 12 I would say he definately would be. The guy gets in the 60%-70% range for the At-Large seat, so I would imagine he has won that many Dems at one point or another. Whether he wins them against Tester is another matter.

It's a bit difficult to believe that Tester would lead with independents, yet get lose 25% of Democrats to the Republican. I see no reason why Tester would lose that many Democrats.

Maybe they are Oklahoma style Democrats. Someone should check exit polling from Mt, if any is available, and see if the GOP wins a large % of Dems when they are winning the state.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#MTP00p1

Obama won Dems 92-7.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006//pages/results/states/MT/S/01/epolls.0.html

Tester won Dems 91-7.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/MT/P/00/epolls.0.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/MT/G/00/epolls.0.html

Kerry won Dems 78-21, while Schweitzer won them 87-12.

Summary: it's not likely unless it's a landslide for the Republican.

This gives me hope!

Tester only won in '06 because of a libertarian spoiler candidate. Hopefully, they'll have an encore performance next year.