Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 26, 2011, 07:14:19 AM



Title: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 26, 2011, 07:14:19 AM
And here it is!


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 26, 2011, 07:36:46 AM
50% tally in Kerry South... Fleming Ind 18.7 Gleeson SKIA 13.5 Griffen FG 10.1 Healy Rae Ind 15.3 Molony Lab 12.6 ODonoghue FF 12.6 Sheahan FG 15.7


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 26, 2011, 07:41:24 AM
Quote
RTEdúnlaoghaire: FF privately conceeding that both their seats are gone here


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 26, 2011, 07:43:17 AM
Meath West: Christian Solidarity Party's Manus McMeanmain says he's very unhappy that his party logo wasn't on the ballot paper and was instead represented by an image that he claims looks like a picture of nuts.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 26, 2011, 08:12:58 AM
What's the difference between the "final tallies" in the results livetracker and "first counts" which we are said not to have yet?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 26, 2011, 08:18:04 AM
What's the difference between the "final tallies" in the results livetracker and "first counts" which we are said not to have yet?

Can you give a link of the tracker please ? :)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 26, 2011, 08:19:32 AM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0226/election_count_live_saturday.html


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 26, 2011, 08:24:38 AM
What's the difference between the "final tallies" in the results livetracker and "first counts" which we are said not to have yet?

Tallies are estimates, not official counts IIRC. Tend to be very accurate though.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 26, 2011, 08:32:04 AM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0226/election_count_live_saturday.html

Thanks. ;)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 26, 2011, 08:53:09 AM
I may have noticed this before and then forgotten, but I have always mispronounced Finnafoal. I always called them Finnafile.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 26, 2011, 09:14:31 AM
I've not found any exit polls/projecitons in that site... :(


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 26, 2011, 09:16:23 AM
The exit poll is: FG 36.1, LAB 20.5, FF 15.1, SF 10.1, GRN 2.7, IND/OTHER 15.5


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 26, 2011, 09:24:02 AM
The exit poll is: FG 36.1, LAB 20.5, FF 15.1, SF 10.1, GRN 2.7, IND/OTHER 15.5

Oh, so no new ones have come since ?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 26, 2011, 09:26:18 AM
The exit poll is: FG 36.1, LAB 20.5, FF 15.1, SF 10.1, GRN 2.7, IND/OTHER 15.5

Oh, so no new ones have come since ?

Nothing's changed for a while now. Seems like they're all counting and we need to wait until somebody publishes final first prefs.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 26, 2011, 09:28:34 AM
The exit poll is: FG 36.1, LAB 20.5, FF 15.1, SF 10.1, GRN 2.7, IND/OTHER 15.5

Oh, so no new ones have come since ?

Nothing's changed for a while now. Seems like they're all counting and we need to wait until somebody publishes final first prefs.

Damn... I read prior in this thread that the counts would be long, but I hope we will have a more precise idea of how things are going before tomorrow...


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 26, 2011, 09:47:24 AM
Labour 1 seat in Dublin W.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on February 26, 2011, 09:57:04 AM
DUBLIN WEST [4]
First Preferences
Joan Burton  Lab  9627
Leo Varadkar  FG  8359
Joe Higgins  Soc  8084
Brian Lenihan  FF  6421
Keiran Dennison  FG  3190
Patrick Nulty  Lab  2686
Paul Donnelly  SF  2597
David McGuinness  FF  623
Roderic O'Gorman  Grn  605
Clement Esebamen  Ind  280

Quota is 8495.  Next stage will be transfer of Burton's surplus votes.

Shares are Lab 29 FG 27.2 Soc 19.0 FF 16.6.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 26, 2011, 09:57:10 AM
Dublin West count
Burton (Lab) 22.7% elected
Varadkar (FG) 19.7%
Higgins (SP) 19%
Lenihan (FF) 15.1%
Dennison (FG) 7.5%
Nulty (Lab) 6.3%
Donnelly (SF) 6.1%

So: LAB 29, FG 27.2, FF 16.6, SF 6.1, GRN 1.4, OTH 19. Turnout up a bunch to 82.3%. FF vote collapses 21.5%


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Verily on February 26, 2011, 09:59:21 AM
Full Dublin West first preferences:

Burton (Lab) - 9627 (22.7%) Elected
Varadkar (FG) - 8359 (19.7%)
Higgins (Soc) - 8084 (19.0%)
Lenihan (FF) - 6421 (15.1%)
Denison (FG) - 3190 (7.5%)
Nulty (Lab) - 2686 (6.3%)
Donnelly (SF) - 2597 (6.1%)
McGuinness (FF) - 623 (1.5%)
O'Gorman (Grn) - 605 (1.4%)
Esebamen (Ind) - 280 (0.7%)

Look like 1 Lab, 1 FG, 1 Soc, 1 FF unless anti-FF transfers are very, very strong, in which case the last seat could go to FG or Lab.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 26, 2011, 10:04:47 AM
Dublin MW overall: FG 30.9, LAB 30.8, SF 11.8, FF 11.8, GRN 3.5, OTH 8.9.

2 Lab, 2 FG?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Verily on February 26, 2011, 10:05:57 AM
Definitely 2 Lab, 2 FG in Dublin Mid-West. The second Lab candidate is not all that far ahead of the FF and SF candidates (who are almost exactly tied), but there are more transfers in the bucket for Lab than for FF or for SF--unless FF and SF transfer strongly to one another, which seems unlikely to me.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on February 26, 2011, 10:07:50 AM
DUBLIN MID-WEST [4]
First Preferences
Joanna Tuffy  Lab  7495
Frances Fitzgerald  FG  7281
Derek Keating  FG  5933
Robert Dowds  Lab  5643
Eoin O Broin  SF  5060
John Curran  FF  5043
Gino Kenny  PBP  2471
Paul Gogarty  Grn  1484
Michael Finnegan  WP  694
Rob Connolly  Soc  622
Michael Ryan  Ind  375
Jim McHale  Ind  255
Colm McGrath  Ind  253
Niall Smith  Ind  113

Quota is 8545.  Next stage: eliminate Niall Smith.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 10:11:44 AM
Definitely 2 Lab, 2 FG in Dublin Mid-West. The second Lab candidate is not all that far ahead of the FF and SF candidates (who are almost exactly tied), but there are more transfers in the bucket for Lab than for FF or for SF--unless FF and SF transfer strongly to one another, which seems unlikely to me.

A large part of the remaining transfers will come from the far left so I wouldn´t rule out an SF seat yet. Alot might depend on where FF transfers go and in reality, nobody really has a clue where those will go. Also LOL@Gogarty.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 10:24:39 AM
Definitely 2 Lab, 2 FG in Dublin Mid-West. The second Lab candidate is not all that far ahead of the FF and SF candidates (who are almost exactly tied), but there are more transfers in the bucket for Lab than for FF or for SF--unless FF and SF transfer strongly to one another, which seems unlikely to me.

A large part of the remaining transfers will come from the far left so I wouldn´t rule out an SF seat yet. Alot might depend on where FF transfers go and in reality, nobody really has a clue where those will go. Also LOL@Gogarty.

Yeah, Gogarty's vote imploded.

FF's transfers will decide this. One presumes they'll favour Labour over SF.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Verily on February 26, 2011, 10:27:31 AM
Longford-Westmeath first count

Willie Penrose (Lab) 19.9%
James Bannon (FG) 15.9%
Peter Burke (FG) 11.6%
Nicky McFadden (FG) 10.8%
Paul Hogan (SF) 7.5%
Robert Troy (FF) 7.3%
Mae Sexton (Lab) 6.8%
Peter Kelly (FF) 6.7%
Mary O'Rourke (FF) 5.4%
Siobhan Kinahan (Grn) 0.5%
Others 7.7%

Could be 3 FG, 1 Lab. FF also in contention for the last seat, though, especially if most of Mae Sexton's vote is ex-PD like she is.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 10:27:49 AM
Full Dublin West first preferences:

Burton (Lab) - 9627 (22.7%) Elected
Varadkar (FG) - 8359 (19.7%)
Higgins (Soc) - 8084 (19.0%)
Lenihan (FF) - 6421 (15.1%)
Denison (FG) - 3190 (7.5%)
Nulty (Lab) - 2686 (6.3%)
Donnelly (SF) - 2597 (6.1%)
McGuinness (FF) - 623 (1.5%)
O'Gorman (Grn) - 605 (1.4%)
Esebamen (Ind) - 280 (0.7%)

Look like 1 Lab, 1 FG, 1 Soc, 1 FF unless anti-FF transfers are very, very strong, in which case the last seat could go to FG or Lab.

Only Labour have a shot here. SF's tarnsfers will put Nulty well ahead of Denison.
I imagine it can be run close, but yes Lenihan looks like he will get that last seat.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 10:33:40 AM
Definitely 2 Lab, 2 FG in Dublin Mid-West. The second Lab candidate is not all that far ahead of the FF and SF candidates (who are almost exactly tied), but there are more transfers in the bucket for Lab than for FF or for SF--unless FF and SF transfer strongly to one another, which seems unlikely to me.

A large part of the remaining transfers will come from the far left so I wouldn´t rule out an SF seat yet. Alot might depend on where FF transfers go and in reality, nobody really has a clue where those will go. Also LOL@Gogarty.

Yeah, Gogarty's vote imploded.

FF's transfers will decide this. One presumes they'll favour Labour over SF.

But SF over FG? 1FG 2LAB 1SF *is* possible however at this point I will say that 2FG 2LAB is the most likely outcome.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 10:34:36 AM
Longford-Westmeath first count

Willie Penrose 19.9%
James Bannon 15.9%
Peter Burke 11.6%
Nicky McFadden 10.8%
Paul Hogan 7.5%
Robert Troy 7.3%
Mae Sexton 6.8%
Peter Kelly 6.7%
Mary O'Rourke 5.4%
Siobhan Kinahan 0.5%
Others 7.7%

Not sure on parties for some of those candidates, though.

19.4% for FF here - just short of a quota, but having it split between 3 means they would really be very hard pressed to win it.

Decent FG vote split (they're 2nd, 3rd and 4th) - not sure if they'll be able to hold those spots though.

Labour top the poll, but a better vote split could've put 2 seats in contention.

EDIT: This is a final tally, rather than a first count btw.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 10:38:51 AM
Definitely 2 Lab, 2 FG in Dublin Mid-West. The second Lab candidate is not all that far ahead of the FF and SF candidates (who are almost exactly tied), but there are more transfers in the bucket for Lab than for FF or for SF--unless FF and SF transfer strongly to one another, which seems unlikely to me.

A large part of the remaining transfers will come from the far left so I wouldn´t rule out an SF seat yet. Alot might depend on where FF transfers go and in reality, nobody really has a clue where those will go. Also LOL@Gogarty.

Yeah, Gogarty's vote imploded.

FF's transfers will decide this. One presumes they'll favour Labour over SF.

But SF over FG? 1FG 2LAB 1SF *is* possible however at this point I will say that 2FG 2LAB is the most likely outcome.

Fair point. To do that Ó Bróin will probably need to do fairly well from those PBP votes.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 10:45:08 AM
Results Table

Labour2(+1: Rabbitte, Dublin SW)
Fianna Fáil1
Fine Gael0
Sinn Féin0
United Left0
Greens0
Independents  0


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 26, 2011, 10:46:41 AM
2 Lab, 1 SF, 1 FG in Dublin SW?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 10:48:12 AM
WOW at how badly FF did in DSW.

Looks almost certain to be 2 LAB, 1SF and 1FG. It will be unless FF transfer in very odd ways.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 10:48:49 AM

Yep, anything else would be quite surprising.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 26, 2011, 10:49:19 AM
woo, FF down 28.5% in DSW. Could Brian Lenihan turn out to be FF's only Dublin TD?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 10:51:11 AM
woo, FF down 28.5% in DSW. Could Brian Lenihan turn out to be FF's only Dublin TD?

At this stage it looks rather likely. Perhaps only Dublin South (one of only two five seaters in Dublin - the other is Dublin South Central where FF might have their worst result in the entire country) and maybe Dublin South East.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 10:56:59 AM
Rte.ie has Kildare North up (4 seats):

*DURKAN, Bernard FG  19.9%  10168
*STAGG, Emmet LAB  19.0%  9718
MURPHY, Catherine IND  13.5%  6911
LAWLOR, Anthony FG  13.4%  6882
McGINLEY, John LAB  10.3%  5261
*BRADY, Áine FF  9.3%  4777
KELLY, Martin SF  5.7%  2896
*FITZPATRICK, Michael FF  5.2%  2659
FITZGERALD, Shane GP   1.8%  905
DOYLE-HIGGINS, Eric IND   0.8%  423
BEIRNE, Michael IND   0.8%  422
MURPHY, Bart IND   0.4%  200

Durkan just short of a quota but also certain to be elected in the next count. Again this will be one of those consistuencies where the final seat will be decided by transfers from FF.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 10:57:08 AM
Can't rule out FF in Dublin N just yet, I'd venture.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Verily on February 26, 2011, 10:58:07 AM
Carlow-Kilkenny

JP Phelan (FG) 15.4%
Hogan (FG) 14.4%
McGuinness (FF) 12.6%
A Phelan (Lab) 11%
Deering (FG) 10.6%
Aylward (FF) 9.3%
Murnane O'Connor (FF) 6.1%
Funchion (SF) 5.3%
Hurley (Lab) 4.9%
Cassin (SF) 4%
White (Grn) 2.8%

Hard to know what that portends. At least 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 FF, likely, then one seat between FG and FF.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 11:00:13 AM
Can't rule out FF in Dublin N just yet, I'd venture.

We can if we are trusting the tallies so far (or at least the ones I´ve read).

Varadkar elected on the second count in Dublin West.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on February 26, 2011, 11:01:22 AM
DUBLIN WEST [4]
First Preferences
Joan Burton  Lab  9627
Leo Varadkar  FG  8359
Joe Higgins  Soc  8084
Brian Lenihan  FF  6421
Keiran Dennison  FG  3190
Patrick Nulty  Lab  2686
Paul Donnelly  SF  2597
David McGuinness  FF  623
Roderic O'Gorman  Grn  605
Clement Esebamen  Ind  280

Quota is 8495.  Next stage will be transfer of Burton's surplus votes.

Shares are Lab 29 FG 27.2 Soc 19.0 FF 16.6.

Burton's surplus put Varadkar over the quota for the second seat.  Bottom three eliminated.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 11:01:53 AM
Results Table

Labour2
Fianna Fáil1
Fine Gael1(+1: Varadkar, Dublin W)
Sinn Féin0
United Left0
Greens0
Independents  0


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 11:05:23 AM
Results Table

Labour3(+1: Wall, Kildare S)
Fine Gael2(+1: Heydon, Kildare S)
Fianna Fáil1
Sinn Féin0
United Left0
Greens0
Independents  0


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 11:06:28 AM
Kildare South (3 seats):

HEYDON, Martin FG   33.3%  12755
*WALL, Jack  LAB   27.8%  10645
   
*Ó FEARGHAÍL, Seán FF  11.8%  4514
*POWER, Seán FF  9.9%  3793
KENNEDY, Paddy IND  7.3%  2806
TURNER, Jason SF  6.0%  2308
REID, Clifford T. IND  2.4%  926
CUMMINS, Vivian GP  1.4%  523

Bold to indicate elected. FG really missed the boat by running only one candidate. FF sure to get a seat here alas.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Verily on February 26, 2011, 11:09:18 AM
Yeah, big fail by both FG and Lab running only one candidate each in Kildare South. Maybe their surpluses will go heavily to Paddy Kennedy?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 11:20:01 AM
Results Table

Labour4(+1: Gilmore, Dún Laoighaire)
Fianna Fáil1
Fine Gael1
Sinn Féin0
United Left0
Greens0
Independents  0


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 11:24:50 AM
Looking at the Dun Laoghaire results it looks quite plausable that Mary Hannafin (FF) will manage to hold on after all though that might depend on where exactly Cuffe´s vote (and those of those random INDs) go.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 11:27:31 AM
Looking at the Dun Laoghaire results it looks quite plausable that Mary Hannafin (FF) will manage to hold on after all though that might depend on where exactly Cuffe´s vote (and those of those random INDs) go.

Possibly, but surely it's more likely that Boyd-Barrett or Bacik will take the last seat?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 11:28:44 AM
Looking at the Dun Laoghaire results it looks quite plausable that Mary Hannafin (FF) will manage to hold on after all though that might depend on where exactly Cuffe´s vote (and those of those random INDs) go.

Possibly, but surely it's more likely that Boyd-Barrett or Bacik will take the last seat?

Yes. But either way the last will be elected way under the Quota.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 11:30:03 AM
Results Table

Labour4
Fine Gael3(+1: O'Reilly, Dublin N)
Fianna Fáil1
Sinn Féin0
United Left0
Greens0
Independents  0

With the Dublin N declaration, goes any real hope of a Green being returned I presume.
I still think a FF seat is possible (just) there, though admittedly unlikely.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 11:33:20 AM
Results Table

Labour4
Fine Gael3
Fianna Fáil1
Independents  1(+1: Ross, Dublin S)
Sinn Féin0
United Left0
Greens0

Outstanding result for Ross.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 11:40:45 AM
The right-wing vote was really out in Dublin South yesterday, I see.

Anyway, this is a good time to post Tipperary South (3 Seats. Quota: 25% +1), the first consistuency to declare from Bogland:

HAYES, Tom FG  21.5%  8896
HEALY, Séamus IND  21.3%  8818
*McGRATH, Mattie IND  14.7%  6074
*MANSERGH, Martin FF  13.1%  5419
MURPHY, Michael FG  13.1%  5402
PRENDERGAST, Phil LAB  10.9%  4525
BROWNE, Michael SF   4.5%  1860
McNALLY, Paul GP   0.9%  367

Difficult to know really. Hopefully both McGrath and Mansergh will be defeated though I wouldn´t be too sure of it. Great showing by Healy (ULA).


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 11:46:51 AM
Joe Higgins elected in Dublin West.

It looks like very few of the (admittely insignificant - less than 700) green transfers went to FF. Hmm...


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 11:52:28 AM
Ross´ transfers, I imagine, would go to FG.

The most boggiest of bogland consistuencies has just declared (Ok Jas, I´ll stop) - Cork North West. Traditionally here FG and FF got 90%+ of the vote between them. This time not so straightforward though however 2FG 1FF is probably the most likely outcome:

*CREED, Michael FG  22.1%  10112
*MOYNIHAN, Michael FF  19.3%  8845
COLLINS, Áine FG  17.2%  7884
COUGHLAN, Martin LAB  14.0%  6421
CANTY, Derry FG  9.5%  4325
O'GRADY, Des SF  7.4%  3405
Ó DONNABHÁIN, Daithí FF  5.6%  2545
FOLEY, Ann PBP   3.4%  1552
COLLINS, Mark GP   1.4%  651


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 26, 2011, 12:02:59 PM
Does it seem that FF is getting hit hardest in the high-growth suburban communities which reelected Ahern in 02/07?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 12:04:52 PM
TV3's guestimate of overall result:

76 FG
36 Lab
17 FF
16 SF
  1 Green
18 Ind/Others


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 12:10:07 PM
Results Table

Fine Gael5
(+2: Hayes, Dublin SW; Noonan, Limerick City)
Labour4
Fianna Fáil1
United Left1(+1: Higgins, Dublin W)
Independents  1
Sinn Féin0
Greens0


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 12:11:01 PM
Limerick City - an amazing performance by Noonan:

*NOONAN, Michael FG   30.8%  13291    
*O'DEA, Willie FF  16.1%  6956
*O'SULLIVAN, Jan LAB  14.7%  6353
*O'DONNELL, Kieran FG  12.5%  5405
QUINLIVAN, Maurice SF  8.6%  3711
LEDDIN, Joe LAB  5.6%  2411
*POWER, Peter FF  5.3%  2303
KIELY, Kevin IND  2.6%  1129
PRENDIVILLE, Cian SP  1.7%  721
CAHILL, Sheila GP  1.1%  490
O'DONOGHUE, Conor CSP  0.4%  186
RIORDAN, Denis IND  0.4%  173
LARKIN, Matt IND  0.1%  59

Certain to be 2FG 1LAB and Willie O´Dea alas.

Also Jas add another to Fine Gael: Durkan in Kildare North.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 26, 2011, 12:11:53 PM
What happens with Higgins' MEP seat?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 12:12:34 PM
What happens with Higgins' MEP seat?

He has a registered replacement though I can´t quite remember who it is.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 12:13:35 PM
Does it seem that FF is getting hit hardest in the high-growth suburban communities which reelected Ahern in 02/07?

I don´t think so. It is just those are the consistuencies that have declared first. Let´s wait and see.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 12:15:16 PM
What happens with Higgins' MEP seat?

He has a registered replacement though I can´t quite remember who it is.

I think Clare Daly, who looks like being elected in Dublin N, was his first stated replacement.
IIRC, Mick Barry, running in Cork NC, was the second stated replacement.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 12:16:30 PM
Results Table

Fine Gael6
(+1: Durkan, Kildare N)
Labour4
Independents  2
(+1: Wallace, Wexford)
Fianna Fáil1
United Left1
Sinn Féin0
Greens0


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 26, 2011, 12:29:39 PM
Maybe Healy-Rae, McGrath, Lowry et al can make O'Dea an honorary member of their group of Old Vision independent candidates?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 12:30:34 PM
Results Table

Fine Gael6
Labour4
Independents  2
Fianna Fáil1
Sinn Féin1(+1: Doherty, Donegal SW)
United Left1
Greens0

Massive vote for Doherty in Donegal SW.
Tánaiste Mary Coughlan will likely end up in a fight with independent Thomas Pringle for that last seat.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 26, 2011, 12:31:05 PM
Pearse Doherty wins over quota on first count. Impressive win.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 26, 2011, 12:32:17 PM
Way over quota. Where are they going to transfer to? Pringle?

You can't count out the Tanaiste being dumped in favor of her running mate, btw.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 12:33:32 PM
Maybe Healy-Rae, McGrath, Lowry et al can make O'Dea an honorary member of their group of Old Vision independent candidates?

He belongs with Healy-Rae and Lowry really. However McGrath doesn´t, basically an SFer/classical-left-urban-republican candidate but with an independent label.

Pringle is an ex-member of SF at least that is what the wires have told me. Furthermore, whether that actually means anything or not is another matter...


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 26, 2011, 12:34:35 PM
Maybe Healy-Rae, McGrath, Lowry et al can make O'Dea an honorary member of their group of Old Vision independent candidates?

He belongs with Healy-Rae and Lowry really. However McGrath doesn´t, basically an SFer/classical-left-urban-republican candidate but with an independent label.

I meant Mattie, not Finian, though...


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 12:36:11 PM
Maybe Healy-Rae, McGrath, Lowry et al can make O'Dea an honorary member of their group of Old Vision independent candidates?

He belongs with Healy-Rae and Lowry really. However McGrath doesn´t, basically an SFer/classical-left-urban-republican candidate but with an independent label.

I meant Mattie, not Finian, though...

Ah yes. I try to pretend that he really doesn´t exist and is just a character on a satire sketch. It´s better for the sanity that way.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Silent Hunter on February 26, 2011, 12:37:39 PM
Thanks for doing this thread, Al.

Seems a good result for Labour so far. A very good result.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 12:37:49 PM
SF could have been not unreasonably placed to take 2 in Donegal SW given Doherty's vote.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 26, 2011, 12:38:03 PM
Maybe Healy-Rae, McGrath, Lowry et al can make O'Dea an honorary member of their group of Old Vision independent candidates?

He belongs with Healy-Rae and Lowry really. However McGrath doesn´t, basically an SFer/classical-left-urban-republican candidate but with an independent label.

I meant Mattie, not Finian, though...

Ah yes. I try to pretend that he really doesn´t exist and is just a character on a satire sketch. It´s better for the sanity that way.
Like what Western European party systems have always been doing with the Irish one? Makes sense.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Silent Hunter on February 26, 2011, 12:41:55 PM
Dublin SE; no-one's hit quota on first count, FG have top two places.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 12:50:09 PM
Galway East

Count 1
Paul Connaughton  7,264    12.25%   
Ciaran Cannon        6,924    11.67%   
Michael Kitt             6,604    11.13%        
Tom McHugh          5,833    9.83%   
Sean Canney         5,567    9.38%           
Jimmy McClearn       5,392    9.09%   
Tim Broderick          5,146    8.68%          
Colm Keaveney       4,261    7.18% 
Michael F Dolan       4,107    6.92%         
Dermot Connolly     3,641    6.14%   
Lorraine Higgins      3,577    6.03%          
Emer O'Donnell        601    1.01%   
Ciaran Kennedy         402    0.68%   

Kudos to whomever can correctly figure out the 4 who'll be elected here.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 26, 2011, 12:51:41 PM
Connaughton, Kitt, one or possibly two of the other FG candidates, probably one of the two high polling indies.

You only asked for "correct". You didn't ask for "precise".


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 12:54:36 PM
The Red Flag flies over Clonmel... Healy has just been elected. The first in Tipperary South. Hayes (FG) to follow very shortly and then probably *ugh* Mattie McGrath (Ind).


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 12:57:42 PM
Results Table

Fine Gael6
Labour5(+1: Tuffy, Dublin MW)
United Left2(+1: Healy, Tipp S)
Independents  2
Fianna Fáil1
Sinn Féin1
Greens0


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 01:00:10 PM
Connaughton, Kitt, one or possibly two of the other FG candidates, probably one of the two high polling indies.

You only asked for "correct". You didn't ask for "precise".

:P
Technically, I suppose I was really looking for accuracy rather than precision (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accuracy_and_precision).


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 01:05:06 PM
Update: Dublin Mid-West. Joanna Tuffy has been elected on the seventh count (what´s taking the rest of the country so long?) and John Curran (FF) has just been eliminated on same count - this is the situation:

Quota: 8.545
*TUFFY, Joanna LAB  8948           
FITZGERALD, Frances FG  7903
Ó BROIN, Eoin SF  6628
DOWDS, Robert LAB  6519
KEATING, Derek FG  6503
*CURRAN, John FF 5513

Three to be elected from Curran´s transfers. Anyone willing to call it?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 01:05:12 PM
Galway West the first constituency to go to a recount.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 01:09:37 PM
Results Table

Fine Gael6
Labour5
Independents  3(+1: Lowry, Tipp N)
United Left2
Fianna Fáil1
Sinn Féin1
Greens0


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 26, 2011, 01:12:07 PM
Where are you getting that? RTE doesn't have that one yet - but it has Emmet Stagg (what a beautiful name that is) in Kildare N.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 01:13:26 PM
Where are you getting that? RTE doesn't have that one yet - but it has Emmet Stagg (what a beautiful name that is) in Kildare N.

http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/dublin-mid-west.html


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: afleitch on February 26, 2011, 01:16:19 PM
Should have posted this a few days ago. My bad

()

Use, ignore, point and laugh or jump for joy if you will.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 01:18:30 PM
Results Table

Fine Gael6
Labour6(+1: Shortall, Dub NW)
Independents  3
United Left2
Fianna Fáil1
Sinn Féin1
Greens0

Looks like 2 Lab, 1 SF in Dub NW.
The most left wing result in an Irish constituency ever.
And the first time Labour would get 2 seats in a 3-seater.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 26, 2011, 01:19:32 PM
Curious to see what the Mayo figures are - there's talk of FG getting four of five there.

Only two FF TDs officially out so far (plus Paul Gogarty with just 3.5%), but most of the rest seem pretty frank & serene about the whole thing and their chances; they've seen this one coming for a long time, so I suppose they've had a while to come to terms with it all.

One question for those more knowledgeable than I: it was about five or six hours before the first count was announced. As the ballot boxes have already been assembled, why does it take so long in comparison with a country like Britain, where some can can gather up the boxes and then count them inside of two or three hours?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 01:19:55 PM
w00t
Thanks afleitch ;D
Will make use of that when all is done


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 01:24:55 PM
One question for those more knowledgeable than I: it was about five or six hours before the first count was announced. As the ballot boxes have already been assembled, why does it take so long in comparison with a country like Britain, where some can can gather up the boxes and then count them inside of two or three hours?

Practice varies by count centre, but usually the first count takes so long because ballots are not just counted, but counted and then sorted by second preference before the first count is declared.

I'd also say it's quite possibly the case that we have fewer people actually counting in the average count centre than in the UK.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 01:28:51 PM
End of the Haughey dynasty imminent in Dublin NC.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 26, 2011, 01:30:47 PM
One question for those more knowledgeable than I: it was about five or six hours before the first count was announced. As the ballot boxes have already been assembled, why does it take so long in comparison with a country like Britain, where some can can gather up the boxes and then count them inside of two or three hours?

Practice varies by count centre, but usually the first count takes so long because ballots are not just counted, but counted and then sorted by second preference before the first count is declared.

I'd also say it's quite possibly the case that we have fewer people actually counting in the average count centre than in the UK.

Ah, of course - makes sense, I suppose, as the succeeding counts seem to be taking fairly little time. Thanks.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: afleitch on February 26, 2011, 01:33:18 PM

Practice varies by count centre, but usually the first count takes so long because ballots are not just counted, but counted and then sorted by second preference before the first count is declared.

I'd also say it's quite possibly the case that we have fewer people actually counting in the average count centre than in the UK.

Logistically speaking I know that Scotland would not have implemented STV for council elections without the stipulation that they are counted electronically. They would have been there all bloody week. Ireland's turnover is not so bad for a hand count.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 01:35:34 PM
Turns out, contrary to my predictions, that Michael McNamara (Lab) in Clare did manage quite the vote haul :)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 01:41:10 PM
Counts flowing in...

Results Table

Labour9(+3: Ryan, Dublin N; Sherlock, Cork E; Stagg, Kildare N)
Fine Gael6
Independents  3
United Left2
Fianna Fáil1
Sinn Féin1
Greens0


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Franzl on February 26, 2011, 01:42:44 PM
So the governing parties are looking at slightly more than about 10% of total seats? lol


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Oakvale on February 26, 2011, 01:50:03 PM
Delighted that Luke "Ming" Flanagan looks like he might get a seat in Roscommon. ;D


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: afleitch on February 26, 2011, 01:50:28 PM
() (http://img695.imageshack.us/i/ireland2011coloured.png/)

Boredom induced map. Independents treated seperately


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 26, 2011, 01:52:35 PM
The first Fianna Fail win so far (apart from the Speaker) - Brian Lenihan, who looks like the only one they'll have left in the capital. Gerry Adams has also just won.

Again, I'm reminded of 1997 in Britain (though this is on a bigger scale, of course) where the polls had been closed for about three hours before the first Tory win came in.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 01:54:30 PM
Results Table

Labour9
Fine Gael8(+2: Flanagan, Dub NE; O'Dowd, Louth)
Independents  3
Fianna Fáil2(+1: Lenihan, Dublin W)
Sinn Féin2(+1: Adams, Louth)
United Left2
Greens0

Gerry Adams elected with ease in Louth.

Minister for Finance, Brian Lenihan elected without reaching thwe quota in Dublin W - first actually elected FF TD today.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Dan the Roman on February 26, 2011, 01:57:20 PM
Imagine what would have happened with FPTP. It would be like Canada 1993, even with transferable votes. Actually especially with them.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 26, 2011, 02:02:00 PM
End of the Haughey dynasty imminent in Dublin NC.

:D


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DL on February 26, 2011, 02:03:03 PM
Given that by all accounts FG and FF have 100% IDENTICAL policies (ie: both right of centre pro-business parties) - why doesn't FG simply take on FF as a junior coalition partner and simply have a rightwing FF-FG government with a leftwing opposition made up of Labour, SF and various leftwing Indies?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on February 26, 2011, 02:04:27 PM
First constituency to finish counting is Dublin West.  Lenihan got back in.

DUBLIN WEST [4]
First Preferences
*Joan Burton  Lab  9627
*Leo Varadkar  FG  8359
*Joe Higgins  Soc  8084
*Brian Lenihan  FF  6421
Kieran Dennison  FG  3190
Patrick Nulty  Lab  2686
Paul Donnelly  SF  2597
David McGuinness  FF  623
Roderick O'Gorman  Grn  605
Clement Esebamen  Ind  280

Transfers (Quota = 8495)
Stage         I   II  III   IV    V
Burton     9627 8495 8495 8495 8495
Varadkar   8359 8555 8555 8555 8555
Higgins    8084 8304 8603 8603 8603
Lenihan    6421 6494 7050 7323 8289
-----------------------------------
Nulty      2686 3186 3450 4701 6329
Dennison   3190 3248 3440 3693
Donnelly   2597 2646 2749
McGuinness  623  631
O'Gorman    605  625
Esebamen    280  288


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 26, 2011, 02:06:08 PM
Imagine what would have happened with FPTP. It would be like Canada 1993, even with transferable votes. Actually especially with them.

I think it would have been worse - the Tory result was mainly because of the Reform split, so if there had been an Irish or Australian-style system they would have done all right, and certainly better than Fianna Fail is doing today. This is just a pure meltdown - a more apt Canadian comparison would be the 1935 disintegration of the United Farmers in Alberta.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 02:08:33 PM
Harry McGee of The Irish Times guestimates the overall result as:
76 Fine Gael
36 Labour
24 Fianna Fail
12 Sinn Fein
  4 United Left Alliance
13 Independents


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 26, 2011, 02:17:20 PM
Photograph time!

()


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 02:17:30 PM
Looks like Cavan-Monaghan going to a recount.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Oakvale on February 26, 2011, 02:19:18 PM
Given that by all accounts FG and FF have 100% IDENTICAL policies (ie: both right of centre pro-business parties) - why doesn't FG simply take on FF as a junior coalition partner and simply have a rightwing FF-FG government with a leftwing opposition made up of Labour, SF and various leftwing Indies?

In a normal political system that would probably happen.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on February 26, 2011, 02:20:21 PM
Harry McGee of The Irish Times guestimates the overall result as:
76 Fine Gael
36 Labour
24 Fianna Fail
12 Sinn Fein
  4 United Left Alliance
13 Independents


Is the exit poll likely correct in giving Independents + ULA more votes than FF ?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 26, 2011, 02:20:48 PM
First prefs for Kerry North-West Limerick: FG 40.8, SF 20.3, Labour 20.1, FF 11.5


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: tpfkaw on February 26, 2011, 02:21:00 PM
Given that by all accounts FG and FF have 100% IDENTICAL policies (ie: both right of centre pro-business parties) - why doesn't FG simply take on FF as a junior coalition partner and simply have a rightwing FF-FG government with a leftwing opposition made up of Labour, SF and various leftwing Indies?

I didn't really understand this either...  Apparently there's century-old bad blood between FF and FG, and they absolutely hate each other (the founders of Fianna Fail opposed the treaty creating th Irish Free State, the founders of Fine Gael supported it).  A second reason is that FF is seen as the "government" party and FG is the "opposition" party, and FG would have no reason for existing other than to oppose FF.  Also, since the election can't really be seen as anything other than a total repudiation of FF, it would be seen as violating "the will of the people" for the governing coalition to include FF.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 02:24:29 PM
Given that by all accounts FG and FF have 100% IDENTICAL policies (ie: both right of centre pro-business parties) - why doesn't FG simply take on FF as a junior coalition partner and simply have a rightwing FF-FG government with a leftwing opposition made up of Labour, SF and various leftwing Indies?

I didn't really understand this either...  Apparently there's century-old bad blood between FF and FG, and they absolutely hate each other (the founders of Fianna Fail opposed the treaty creating th Irish Free State, the founders of Fine Gael supported it).  A second reason is that FF is seen as the "government" party and FG is the "opposition" party, and FG would have no reason for existing other than to oppose FF.  Also, since the election can't really be seen as anything other than a total repudiation of FF, it would be seen as violating "the will of the people" for the governing coalition to include FF.

You really need to be Irish to understand this (or at least the social dynamics of many small Irish towns and the countryside).


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: The Man From G.O.P. on February 26, 2011, 02:25:01 PM
If I have to hear "whopping" again.... geez


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 26, 2011, 02:26:53 PM
You really need to be Irish to understand this (or at least the social dynamics of many small Irish towns and the countryside).

I'm not sure if dynamic is quite the right word you're looking for there.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 02:28:27 PM
Even by the standards of the day FFs collapse in Roscommon/S.Leitrim is extraordinary fail. Only 15%. And one of its candidate eliminated in the first count. In Roscommon/S.Leitrim.

@Al: Excellent point though pointless petty inter-generational jealousy and begrudgery counts as a dynamic, no?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 02:32:36 PM
Cork North Central (4 Seats)

O'BRIEN, Jonathan SF  15.2%  7923
*KELLEHER, Billy FF  15.1%  7896
*LYNCH, Kathleen LAB  14.7%  7676
BURTON, Pat FG  13.6%  7072
MURPHY, Dara FG  12.7%  6597
GILROY, John LAB  11.7%  6125
BARRY, Mick SP  9.2%  4803
O'SULLIVAN, Pádraig IND  2.0%  1020
CONWAY, Kevin IND  1.8%  958
TYNAN, Ted WP  1.3%  681
WALSH, Ken GP  1.0%  524
REA, Harry CSP  0.6%  324
ADAMS, John IND  0.5%  282
ASHU-ARRAH, Benjamin Ashu IND   0.3%  161
O'ROURKE, Fergus IND   0.2%  95

Anyone willing to predict how this end?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 26, 2011, 02:36:03 PM
@Al: Excellent point though pointless petty inter-generational jealousy and begrudgery counts as a dynamic, no?

Maybe. Though perhaps more like flies flitting along the top of a stagnant pool...


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 02:40:22 PM
Micheál Martin, FF leader, re-elected in Cork SC just getting over the quota on Count 1.
Only FF candidate to top the poll so far today.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Kevinstat on February 26, 2011, 02:44:21 PM
Harry McGee of The Irish Times guestimates the overall result as:
76 Fine Gael
36 Labour
24 Fianna Fail
12 Sinn Fein
  4 United Left Alliance
13 Independents


Repeating a question I asked in the now-closed thread on this election:

"How many seats would SF probably need to win to have 20 seats in the Oireachtas (Dáil Éireann + Seanad Éireann) once the Seanad elections have taken place?  I asssume none will be Taoiseach's nominees. :)  20 members of the Oireachtas are enough to nominate a candidate for President, and the next Irish presidential election will be held in October assuming Mary McAleese serves out her term.  Could Gerry Adams vote to nominate himself or would SF need to win 20 seats besides his to get him on the ballot without relying on support outside SF?"

Also, can someone tell me how likely/certain Sinn Féin would nominate a candidate for President if they had the votes to?  I know they wouldn't win, but having a candidate on the ballot in what would probably be no more than a four-candidate race would be quite a coup.  Perhaps they could survive into the second count (if there is one) after whomever agrees to run for Fianna Fáil is eliminated or otherwise finish ahead of that candidate on the first count.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 26, 2011, 02:46:55 PM
Martin wins, with the best FF result so far - only a 16% drop, leaving them on 28%. Not much comfort for them, but given what's been happening it'll probably give them some comfort.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 02:47:37 PM
Dublin-Mid West just finished as predicted early: 2LAB 2FG. Significant fact was that FF voters were more willing to transfer to Labour than FG and slightly more willing to transfer to SF to FG.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 02:50:01 PM
Moyninhan (FF) going to be re-elected in Cork North West because he got an amazing load of SF transfers. Hmmmm....


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 02:53:53 PM
Oooh.
RTÉ Radio just interupted the start of an interview with the Taoiseach, to go to the Mayo count. That's gotta hurt.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 02:56:50 PM
Repeating a question I asked in the now-closed thread on this election:

"How many seats would SF probably need to win to have 20 seats in the Oireachtas (Dáil Éireann + Seanad Éireann) once the Seanad elections have taken place?  I asssume none will be Taoiseach's nominees. :)  20 members of the Oireachtas are enough to nominate a candidate for President, and the next Irish presidential election will be held in October assuming Mary McAleese serves out her term.

Sorry, don't know.
The maths of the Seanad Election are beyond me without quite a bit of research.

Could Gerry Adams vote to nominate himself or would SF need to win 20 seats besides his to get him on the ballot without relying on support outside SF?"

Yes, he could vote to nominate himself.

Also, can someone tell me how likely/certain Sinn Féin would nominate a candidate for President if they had the votes to?  

It would be very surprising to me if they didn't.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 26, 2011, 02:58:30 PM
Kenny & Ring have just won in Mayo - looks like Fine Gael will get two more there & that Fianna Fail will keep their seat too.

65% overall for Fine Gael - expected, but still pretty impressive.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 03:01:08 PM
Kenny & Ring have just won in Mayo - looks like Fine Gael will get two more there & that Fianna Fail will keep their seat too.

65% overall for Fine Gael - expected, but still pretty impressive.

If FG take 4 from 5 in Mayo, as seems quite possible, it'll be the first time ever in Ireland a party has taken 4 in a 5-seater.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Kevinstat on February 26, 2011, 03:08:21 PM
Kenny & Ring have just won in Mayo - looks like Fine Gael will get two more there & that Fianna Fail will keep their seat too.

65% overall for Fine Gael - expected, but still pretty impressive.

If FG take 4 from 5 in Mayo, as seems quite possible, it'll be the first time ever in Ireland a party has taken 4 in a 5-seater.

FF didn't in 1977?  I know they got 2/3 in a bunch of Dublin constituencies where they were expected to get 1/3, and I had assumed that in rural areas 5-seaters were drawn where it was expected FF, then often capable of winning a majority as they did in '74, would get 3/5 instead of 3/4 or 2/3 in 4- or 3-seaters.  I figured if they overperformed in Dublin they might have overperformed in rural 5-seaters given their landslide victory overall in that election.

[Edited to correct 1974 to 1977 and to mention that this was my 1,000th post on the "new" (post-2003) Atlas Forum.]


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Dan the Roman on February 26, 2011, 03:10:43 PM
Kenny & Ring have just won in Mayo - looks like Fine Gael will get two more there & that Fianna Fail will keep their seat too.

65% overall for Fine Gael - expected, but still pretty impressive.

If FG take 4 from 5 in Mayo, as seems quite possible, it'll be the first time ever in Ireland a party has taken 4 in a 5-seater.

FF didn't in 1974?  I know they got 2/3 in a bunch of Dublin constituencies where they were expected to get 1/3, and I had assumed that in rural areas 5-seaters were drawn where it was expected FF, then often capable of winning a majority as they did in '74, would get 3/5 instead of 3/4 or 2/3 in 4- or 3-seaters.  I figured if they overperformed in Dublin they might have overperformed in rural 5-seaters given their landslide victory overall in that election.

You mean 1977?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 26, 2011, 03:11:33 PM
()


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Kevinstat on February 26, 2011, 03:12:56 PM
Kenny & Ring have just won in Mayo - looks like Fine Gael will get two more there & that Fianna Fail will keep their seat too.

65% overall for Fine Gael - expected, but still pretty impressive.

If FG take 4 from 5 in Mayo, as seems quite possible, it'll be the first time ever in Ireland a party has taken 4 in a 5-seater.

FF didn't in 1974?  I know they got 2/3 in a bunch of Dublin constituencies where they were expected to get 1/3, and I had assumed that in rural areas 5-seaters were drawn where it was expected FF, then often capable of winning a majority as they did in '74, would get 3/5 instead of 3/4 or 2/3 in 4- or 3-seaters.  I figured if they overperformed in Dublin they might have overperformed in rural 5-seaters given their landslide victory overall in that election.

You mean 1977?

Yes.  The boundaries for that election were drawn in 1974 (the "Tullymander").  That's what threw me off.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 26, 2011, 03:14:12 PM
Kenny & Ring have just won in Mayo - looks like Fine Gael will get two more there & that Fianna Fail will keep their seat too.

65% overall for Fine Gael - expected, but still pretty impressive.

If FG take 4 from 5 in Mayo, as seems quite possible, it'll be the first time ever in Ireland a party has taken 4 in a 5-seater.

FF didn't in 1974?  I know they got 2/3 in a bunch of Dublin constituencies where they were expected to get 1/3, and I had assumed that in rural areas 5-seaters were drawn where it was expected FF, then often capable of winning a majority as they did in '74, would get 3/5 instead of 3/4 or 2/3 in 4- or 3-seaters.  I figured if they overperformed in Dublin they might have overperformed in rural 5-seaters given their landslide victory overall in that election.

They didn't, though they did win 3/4 - to get 4/5 you need two-thirds of the vote, which is pretty damn difficult. The first count gives them 65%, so with transfers they should make it.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 26, 2011, 03:15:53 PM
Given that by all accounts FG and FF have 100% IDENTICAL policies (ie: both right of centre pro-business parties) - why doesn't FG simply take on FF as a junior coalition partner and simply have a rightwing FF-FG government with a leftwing opposition made up of Labour, SF and various leftwing Indies?

Because Éamon de Valera didn't accept the Treaty. Don't be ridiculous.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 26, 2011, 03:21:31 PM

Cyprian Brady was just Bertie Ahern's second seat, no?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 26, 2011, 03:22:56 PM
Fianna Fail seems on track to do a bit better than the exit suggested (Fine Gael & Labour look just about bang-on) - perhaps there was a tiny last-minute rally round them, or, as one commentator suggested earlier, they had those votes all along but people were too embarrassed to tell pollsters they would still vote for Fianna Fail.

I think this was also one explanation offered for the stronger-than-expected Tory vote in 1992.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 03:27:58 PM
Results Table Update

Fine Gael15
Labour10
Sinn Féin4
Independents  4
Fianna Fáil3
United Left2
Greens0


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 26, 2011, 03:29:32 PM
Murphy (i) elected in Kildare North.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Dan the Roman on February 26, 2011, 03:29:38 PM
Fianna Fail seems on track to do a bit better than the exit suggested (Fine Gael & Labour look just about bang-on) - perhaps there was a tiny last-minute rally round them, or, as one commentator suggested earlier, they had those votes all along but people were too embarrassed to tell pollsters they would still vote for Fianna Fail.

I think this was also one explanation offered for the stronger-than-expected Tory vote in 1992.

FG seems to have done some excellent vote management which should make the rally largely moot vis-e-ve the seat predictions. But we will have to wait until tomorrow to see.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 26, 2011, 03:31:07 PM
I think that there should be an Irish-language count in every constituency.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 03:36:16 PM
Trevor Sargent is eliminated in Dublin N - effectively guaranteeing the end of 22 years of Green Party representation in the Dáil.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 26, 2011, 03:36:43 PM
Labour below 20%... :(


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 26, 2011, 03:45:40 PM
Fianna Fail seems on track to do a bit better than the exit suggested (Fine Gael & Labour look just about bang-on) - perhaps there was a tiny last-minute rally round them, or, as one commentator suggested earlier, they had those votes all along but people were too embarrassed to tell pollsters they would still vote for Fianna Fail.

I think this was also one explanation offered for the stronger-than-expected Tory vote in 1992.

FG seems to have done some excellent vote management which should make the rally largely moot vis-e-ve the seat predictions. But we will have to wait until tomorrow to see.

I think that the seat outcome is going to be just as bad as was originally projected, but there will be more close misses than were expected. At the moment they're just two points behind Labour (this may change), but a lack of transfers will see them shafted. It does mean that they have a hope of gains next time as opposed to a continued fall, which is what I think might have happened if they had been at 15% as opposed to 18% or so and some narrow losses.

Also, FF seems to be holding up a bit better in the south west - perhaps it's Micheal Martin's coattails or something else, but they're dropping less than 20% in some constituencies there, as opposed to 25% or 30% elsewhere.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: The Man From G.O.P. on February 26, 2011, 03:56:46 PM
This RTE coverage is so so so crap. Boring as hell, replaying of weird promos... Why is this?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: ilikeverin on February 26, 2011, 03:57:52 PM
C'mon, Cavan/Monaghan... get on with it >:(  Jas wants to know his results and I want to know my ancestral constituency's results!


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: ilikeverin on February 26, 2011, 03:59:36 PM
C'mon, Cavan/Monaghan... get on with it >:(  Jas wants to know his results and I want to know my ancestral constituency's results!

Ask and ye shall receive! :)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 04:01:44 PM
The Jas guestimation of the overall result:
75 Fine Gael
35 Labour
26 Fianna Fáil
13 Sinn Féin
  5 United Left
12 Independents


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 04:03:00 PM
C'mon, Cavan/Monaghan... get on with it >:(  Jas wants to know his results and I want to know my ancestral constituency's results!

Ask and ye shall receive! :)

:)
Indeed. 2FG, 1 FF, 1 SF with FG v SF for the final seat- hard to call.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Kevinstat on February 26, 2011, 04:14:09 PM
Kerry South (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/kerry-south.html) 1st Count in:

GRIFFIN, Brendan (FG) 8,808 votes (19.8%)
HEALY RAE, Michael (Ind) 6,670 votes (15.0%)
FLEMING, Tom (Ind) 6,416 votes (14.5%)
*O'DONOGHUE, John (FF) 5,917 votes (13.3%)
*SHEAHAN, Tom (FG) 5,674 votes (12.8%)
GLEESON, Michael (SKIA) 4,939 votes (11.1%)
MOLONEY, Marie (Lab) 4,926 votes (11.1%)
COMERFORD, Oonagh (Green) 401 votes (0.9%) Eliminated
BEHAL, Richard (Ind) 348 votes (0.8%) Eliminated
FINN, Dermot (Ind) 281 votes (0.6%) Eliminated

Quota: 11,096 votes
Elected: 0/4

Fine Gael 14,482 votes (32.6%)
Independents 30.9%
Fianna Fáil 5,917 votes (13.3%)
South Kerry Independent Alliance 4,939 votes (11.1%)
Labour 4,926 votes (11.1%)
Green Party 401 votes (0.9%)

Well, Tom Sheahan's getting "primaried" (not really the same thing I know).  Dissapointing showing for Labour, methinks.  Does Moloney still have a shot?  If she can pass Gleeson and Sheahan and make out well on the Fine Gael surplus, ... is it a reasonable proposition at this point?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 26, 2011, 04:16:45 PM
I can't imagine why the electorate would want to vote for Healy-Rae.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 26, 2011, 04:17:58 PM
A bit of a surprise - rather than widening, the Labour-Fianna Fail gap seems to be narrowing. It's 19% to 18% with only two constituencies left to go.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 26, 2011, 04:22:38 PM
A bit of a surprise - rather than widening, the Labour-Fianna Fail gap seems to be narrowing. It's 19% to 18% with only two constituencies left to go.

It would be terrible if FF got second in the vote share.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Kevinstat on February 26, 2011, 04:24:12 PM
The last two constituencies to complete their first count (Kerry South and particularly Cavan-Monaghan) were not strong Labour areas.  Labour could well finish ahead of Fianna Fáil in Wicklow (despite getting less than half as many votes as Fianna Fáil's in 2007) and should crush FF in Dublin South Central.  I'm confident that Labour will finish second in first preferences nationwide.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 26, 2011, 04:28:09 PM
Fianna Fail have just gotten their fourth member - also in Cork.

Bacik is out in Dun Laoghaire (though Labour says it wants a full recount), so while that should be enough to see Fine Gael win a second seat there, it'll be curious how much of her vote goes to Boyd Barrett. Just over half of Andrews' vote went to Mary Hanafin, so it doesn't look very good for her.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 04:36:39 PM
Tánaiste Mary Coughlan eliminated in the Donegal SW count.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 04:38:57 PM
Dún Laoighaire count suspended for the night.
Recount called (by Labour, I think) and will start at 10.30a.m. tomorrow.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 04:52:24 PM
I can't imagine why the electorate would want to vote for Healy-Rae.

From this remark, I can safely assume that you have never been to South Kerry.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 26, 2011, 04:55:26 PM
Listening to Enda Kenny for over 5 minutes seconds:

()


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 05:13:29 PM
Dublin North finished: 2FG 1LAB 1SOC. It looks almost certain now that Lenihan will be the only Dublin FF TD. Perhaps only Chris Andrews has a chance now.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: rob in cal on February 26, 2011, 05:14:44 PM
So far, of the handful of completed voted counting constituencies, I haven't found a single case where the elected members were any different than the first count finishers. In other words, the results wouldn't be different had a Single Non-transferable ballot been used.  I'm wondering how often the tranferable part plays a roll, and pushes someone ahead to win a seat when they were trailing for that seat after the first count.
    I know in Australia House of Rep single seat districts its often the Green vote that pushes Labour candidates ahead of National or Liberal candidates in some districts, but how often in Ireland is it significant.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 05:17:33 PM
So far, of the handful of completed voted counting constituencies, I haven't found a single case where the elected members were any different than the first count finishers. In other words, the results wouldn't be different had a Single Non-transferable ballot been used.  I'm wondering how often the tranferable part plays a roll, and pushes someone ahead to win a seat when they were trailing for that seat after the first count.
    I know in Australia House of Rep single seat districts its often the Green vote that pushes Labour candidates ahead of National or Liberal candidates in some districts, but how often in Ireland is it significant.

Watch Galway East and Kerry South.

Wicklow finally completes its count - making it all 43 constituencies to declare - and as all the world was hoping Dick Roche failed epically. Not even close to retaining his seat (5.5%).


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 26, 2011, 05:20:23 PM
Wicklow's first count finally announced - no official winner yet, but Dick Roche is certain to be out.

Final vote is as follows:
FG - 36.1% (+8.8%)
Lab - 19.4% (+9.3%)
FF - 17.4% (–24.2%)
SF - 9.9% (+3.0%)
GP - 1.8% (–2.9%)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 26, 2011, 05:22:28 PM
So, with all first counts:

FG 36.1% (+8.8%)
LAB 19.4% (+9.3%)
FF 17.4% (-24.1%)
Indies 12.6% (+6.8%)
SF 9.9% (+3%)
Greenies 1.8% (-2.8%)
Socialist 1.2% (+0.6%)
PBPA 1%


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 05:33:56 PM
In Dublin South - it's looking like FG could deliver 3 seats from 5 (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/dublin-south.html) with just 36% of the vote.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 26, 2011, 05:37:40 PM
Eamon Ryan's out at Dublin South - that's the last Green seat gone.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on February 26, 2011, 05:42:09 PM
     Heh, FF didn't win first preferences anywhere, even though SF won them in Donegal South West.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 26, 2011, 05:49:16 PM
     Heh, FF didn't win first preferences anywhere, even though SF won them in Donegal South West.

Micheal Martin won on the first count, but otherwise you're right.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 26, 2011, 05:52:56 PM
     Heh, FF didn't win first preferences anywhere, even though SF won them in Donegal South West.

Micheal Martin won on the first count, but otherwise you're right.

He meant that FF candidates put together did not win the most first prefs anywhere.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 05:54:58 PM
We've now had consecutive elections where the Tánaiste has lost their seat.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on February 26, 2011, 05:58:16 PM
     Humorously, FG received the most first preferences in Tipperary South in 2007, but now Independents have beaten them there.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 26, 2011, 06:16:53 PM
Donegal SW

Votes: SF 33%, FF 22.5%, FG 19.9%, Inds 18.3%, Labour 5.1%, Greenie 1.2
Seats: SF 1, FG 1, Ind 1

Epic Fáil


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: ilikeverin on February 26, 2011, 06:20:52 PM
They've halted the count in Galway East, because a FG candidate wants a recount.  Makes sense to me... the official tally has him being eliminated (rather than an Indie) by 2 votes in Count 7.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 06:24:54 PM
Donegal SW

Votes: SF 33%, FF 22.5%, FG 19.9%, Inds 18.3%, Labour 5.1%, Greenie 1.2
Seats: SF 1, FG 1, Ind 1

Epic Fáil

The FF seat there was held by the Tanaiste who once, I believe I embrassingly told you this before, claimed Einstein invented the theory of evolution (at a meeting intended to promote Ireland as a "knowledge economy" whatever that is). So yeah, LOL.

One pattern is painfully clear however. Where FF are retaining seats it is mainly due to the lack of good opponents as much as anything else. Oh, and the occasional TD personality cult such as O´Dea.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 26, 2011, 06:26:36 PM
The FF seat there was held by the Tanaiste who once, I believe I embrassingly told you this before, claimed Einstein invented the theory of evolution (at a meeting intended to promote Ireland as a "knowledge economy" whatever that is). So yeah, LOL.

I was thinking of making that my election signature actually; quite a close call.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 06:34:11 PM
Luke Ming Flanagan deemed elected

()

:)



Most excellent.

Al, your really should have made that your sig, I prefer not to be reminded of the Lynch-Haughey unpleasantness.

Speaking of which, Haughey the younger has now been formally eliminated.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 06:46:47 PM
Kerry South could become the first constituency to elect 2 independents in 60 years (Dublin NE in 1951).


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: ilikeverin on February 26, 2011, 06:46:54 PM
Laois-Offaly is tired and is going to bed.

EDIT: As is Kerry South.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 26, 2011, 06:48:12 PM
Kerry South could become the first constituency to elect 2 independents in 60 years (Dublin NE in 1951).

Both FF genepool however (unless you are thinking of Michael Gleeson).


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 06:56:50 PM
Dub NW count complete: 2 Lab, 1 SF
(Lab and SF GAINS from FF)

Only constituency that won't have a FG TD.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 07:21:30 PM
Michael D'Arcy (FG-Wexford) becomes the first non-FF/Green incumbent to lose his seat at this election. He lost out to running-mate Liam Twomey.

Wexford complete: 2 FG, 1 i, 1 L, 1 FF
(i GAIN from FF)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 26, 2011, 07:26:27 PM
Al, your really should have made that your sig, I prefer not to be reminded of the Lynch-Haughey unpleasantness.

Speaking of which, Haughey the younger has now been formally eliminated.

;D

Now that the son is gone (;D ;D ;D) I will change the signature.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 07:54:47 PM
Strong anti-FF transfering gives SF a seat in Cork E (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/cork-east.html)

Cork E Result: 2 FG, 1 L, 1 SF
(FG and SF GAINS from FF)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 07:59:45 PM
Enda welcomes the "biggest endorsement" of FG in the history of the party.

FG 2011: 36.1%
FG 1982: 37.3%


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on February 26, 2011, 08:07:47 PM
Enda welcomes the "biggest endorsement" of FG in the history of the party.

FG 2011: 36.1%
FG 1982: 37.3%

TBF, FG never actually beat FF in a way like this, so I don't think it's an exaggeration.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 08:17:09 PM
Despite taking 23.6% of the FPV in Cork SW (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/cork-south-west.html), FF will not get a seat.
Very strong anti-FF transfering looks like making a Labour gain.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: tpfkaw on February 26, 2011, 08:17:53 PM
Enda welcomes the "biggest endorsement" of FG in the history of the party.

FG 2011: 36.1%
FG 1982: 37.3%

TBF, FG never actually beat FF in a way like this, so I don't think it's an exaggeration.

And, isn't this the largest number of seats for them ever?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 26, 2011, 08:32:50 PM
Enda welcomes the "biggest endorsement" of FG in the history of the party.

FG 2011: 36.1%
FG 1982: 37.3%

TBF, FG never actually beat FF in a way like this, so I don't think it's an exaggeration.

And, isn't this the largest number of seats for them ever?

We don't know how many seats they've won yet.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Verily on February 26, 2011, 08:34:11 PM
So far, of the handful of completed voted counting constituencies, I haven't found a single case where the elected members were any different than the first count finishers. In other words, the results wouldn't be different had a Single Non-transferable ballot been used.  I'm wondering how often the tranferable part plays a roll, and pushes someone ahead to win a seat when they were trailing for that seat after the first count.
    I know in Australia House of Rep single seat districts its often the Green vote that pushes Labour candidates ahead of National or Liberal candidates in some districts, but how often in Ireland is it significant.

Watch Galway East and Kerry South.

Wicklow finally completes its count - making it all 43 constituencies to declare - and as all the world was hoping Dick Roche failed epically. Not even close to retaining his seat (5.5%).

Also Dublin SE. The elected second Labour TD was in fifth on first preferences, behind the defeated incumbent FF TD in fourth.

Edit: And in Meath West, the second FG TD elected was in fourth to begin but passed the third-placed second Labour candidate to be elected in that three-seater.

As to the above, most seats FG has ever won before was 70, in November 1982 (Jas quoted the February 1982 numbers; FG actually got more votes (39.2%) and seats in the second election that year)--which they seem certain to surpass.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 26, 2011, 08:52:09 PM
Despite taking 23.6% of the FPV in Cork SW (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/cork-south-west.html), FF will not get a seat.
Very strong anti-FF transfering looks like making a Labour gain.
Cork NC might end up an FF shutout as well - FF incumbent there did well on first pref.s but his transfers look so bad they might as well be negative. One Labour candidate to be eliminated now, after that it'll be a big surplus from the other, incumbent Labour candidate, and I wouldn't be surprised if both FG candidates overtake him on those two redistributions - one certainly will. (And after that, there'll be nothing left.)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 26, 2011, 08:58:33 PM
I suppose special congratulations are due to Michael D'Arcy - though Deirdre Clune might repeat the feat.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 09:15:51 PM
Critical count in Waterford now.

SF's David Cullinane's transfers (6,298) could decide whether John Halligan (i, formerly The Workers' Party) can overhaul the 835 gap to Brendan Kenneally (FF).


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 09:17:49 PM
Susan O'Keefe's (Lab) transfers in Sligo-N Leitrim looks like its decided that constituency allowing Colreavy (SF) to take the final seat instead of Scanlon (FF).

I'm very glad Mr Scanlon is not being returned :D


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Oakvale on February 26, 2011, 09:18:31 PM
Disappointed if not hugely surprised to see SF's Mary Lou McDonald elected in the last count in my constituency of Dublin Central.

That's Donohoe (FG - who topped the poll! ), Costello (LAB), O' Sullivan (IND) and McDonald, which unless I'm much mistaken is what Jas predicted in the other thread, so I tip my hat. :)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 09:29:46 PM
Cavan-Monaghan (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/cavan-monaghan.html) very tight. Looking like FG will pick up 3. Kathryn Reilly (SF) has been close behind them for many counts now, but seems unable to close the gap.

Margaret Conlon's (FF) distribution and the inevitable ensuing distibution of the Brendan Smith (FF) surplus that that distribution will create - will decide things. That those votes are much more Monaghan than Cavan in origin, will likely count against Reilly.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 26, 2011, 09:32:36 PM
Fifty-seven seats left and Sinn Fein still leads Fianna Fail 11-10. With obviously efficient anti-Fianna Fail transfers in most constituencies, I'm starting to think 20 seats may be in the upper range of possibilities for them.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 09:37:59 PM
Fifty-seven seats left and Sinn Fein still leads Fianna Fail 11-10. With obviously efficient anti-Fianna Fail transfers in most constituencies, I'm starting to think 20 seats may be in the upper range of possibilities for them.

I have them at 22 still, but yes it could conceivably dip below 20.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Franzl on February 26, 2011, 09:39:48 PM
Will the counting be stopped any time soon for the night?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 26, 2011, 09:45:47 PM
In many places it already has. Others plow on.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 09:49:58 PM
Will the counting be stopped any time soon for the night?

It's a matter for the discretion of the returning officer of each constituency.

Counting is still continuing in:
Cavan-Monaghan
Cork NC
Dublin NE
Dublin SC
Longford-Westmeath
Mayo
Sligo-N Leitrim
Waterford

Everywhere else is either complete or adjourned until morning.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 09:54:01 PM
And having said that, the count is now complete in Dublin NE (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/dublin-north-east.html)

Though Sligo-N Leitrim is merely formality at this stage, as is Mayo and Dublin SC.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 26, 2011, 10:01:59 PM
Shut-out of FF in Sligo-N Leitrim (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/sligo-north-leitrim.html) confirmed, despite taking 22% of the vote - in a constituency with a 25% quota.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on February 26, 2011, 10:02:37 PM
And having said that, the count is now complete in Dublin NE (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/dublin-north-east.html)

Though Sligo-N Leitrim is merely formality at this stage, as is Mayo and Dublin SC.

Glad A. Power was not elected. Not a fan of her husband, her party or policies.  


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Kevinstat on February 26, 2011, 10:16:09 PM
And having said that, the count is now complete in Dublin NE (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/dublin-north-east.html)

Though Sligo-N Leitrim is merely formality at this stage, as is Mayo and Dublin SC.

2 Lab (Bryne (already elected) and Conaghan), 1 FG (Byrne), 1 PBP (Collins), 1 SF (Ó Snodaigh)?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on February 26, 2011, 10:20:40 PM
And having said that, the count is now complete in Dublin NE (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/dublin-north-east.html)

Though Sligo-N Leitrim is merely formality at this stage, as is Mayo and Dublin SC.

Glad A. Power was not elected. Not a fan of her husband, her party or policies.  

I don't mind her husband all that much.

Well his wife sent out some stupid mailers (only she can stop Sinn Fein) and I am not sold on his objectivity.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: ilikeverin on February 26, 2011, 10:28:58 PM
Cavan-Monaghan (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/cavan-monaghan.html) very tight. Looking like FG will pick up 3. Kathryn Reilly (SF) has been close behind them for many counts now, but seems unable to close the gap.

Margaret Conlon's (FF) distribution and the inevitable ensuing distibution of the Brendan Smith (FF) surplus that that distribution will create - will decide things. That those votes are much more Monaghan than Cavan in origin, will likely count against Reilly.

As predicted, reallocation is not very Reilly friendly; looks almost certain that Cavan-Monaghan will be 3 FG-1 FF :-\


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on February 26, 2011, 10:34:19 PM
Cavan-Monaghan (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/cavan-monaghan.html) very tight. Looking like FG will pick up 3. Kathryn Reilly (SF) has been close behind them for many counts now, but seems unable to close the gap.

Margaret Conlon's (FF) distribution and the inevitable ensuing distibution of the Brendan Smith (FF) surplus that that distribution will create - will decide things. That those votes are much more Monaghan than Cavan in origin, will likely count against Reilly.

As predicted, reallocation is not very Reilly friendly; looks almost certain that Cavan-Monaghan will be 3 FG-1 FF :-\

Yeah, it looks like very good vote management by FG. I do think it is pretty cool that someone of 21 years can make a good run at it no matter what the party.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 26, 2011, 10:34:50 PM
Mayo's final count is in - they did it.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 26, 2011, 10:35:06 PM
Are surpluses not transfered in Irish STV?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 26, 2011, 10:40:22 PM
()

Some rounding.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 26, 2011, 10:44:10 PM
A map of the left-wing vote might be interesting (Lab+SF+ULA+independents).


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 26, 2011, 10:49:37 PM
Fine Gael & Labour have just reached 84 (54+30).


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Verily on February 26, 2011, 10:56:38 PM
Fine Gael & Labour have just reached 84 (54+30).

Let's hope FG can make 84 without Labour so Ireland gets a real party system.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 26, 2011, 11:02:47 PM
Fine Gael & Labour have just reached 84 (54+30).

Let's hope FG can make 84 without Labour so Ireland gets a real party system.

I doubt they'll make it, but seeing how the transfers are so efficiently squeezing out Fianna Fail candidates it is possible.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on February 26, 2011, 11:04:46 PM
Fine Gael & Labour have just reached 84 (54+30).

Let's hope FG can make 84 without Labour so Ireland gets a real party system.

No, lets not. What has Fine Gael ever done? I am leery of their supposed solutions.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 26, 2011, 11:33:10 PM
Only three constituencies left to declare tonight - chalk up three more Fine Gael members from Cavan – Monaghan.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Verily on February 27, 2011, 12:11:33 AM
Fine Gael & Labour have just reached 84 (54+30).

Let's hope FG can make 84 without Labour so Ireland gets a real party system.

No, lets not. What has Fine Gael ever done? I am leery of their supposed solutions.

Sure. I want FG to win outright so Labour can be the opposition and Ireland can get a real party system. Implicit in that is the assumption that FG will f' up, which is really inevitable whether Labour is in government or not (but, if Labour are in government, FF will make a comeback when FG f's up.)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 27, 2011, 01:37:16 AM
The count goes on and on in Dublin SC, where FG's Catherine Byrne has been reelected. It's more or less a done deal at this point; it'll end up being 2 Lab, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 ULA (PBP).




Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 27, 2011, 01:45:42 AM
Dublin South-Central has finished, so no more declarations until tomorrow.

Current tally:
FG - 59
Lab - 31
FF - 14
SF - 13
ULA - 3
Ind - 11

Thirty-five more seats to come.

As for defeats, all six Greens are out, as well as Michael D'Arcy for Fine Gael and thirty Fianna Fail members.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 27, 2011, 02:36:58 AM
Here's how each party has done so far (shaded by number of seats, not vote share):

()


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 05:17:09 AM
Despite taking 23.6% of the FPV in Cork SW (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/cork-south-west.html), FF will not get a seat.
Very strong anti-FF transfering looks like making a Labour gain.
Cork NC might end up an FF shutout as well - FF incumbent there did well on first pref.s but his transfers look so bad they might as well be negative. One Labour candidate to be eliminated now, after that it'll be a big surplus from the other, incumbent Labour candidate, and I wouldn't be surprised if both FG candidates overtake him on those two redistributions - one certainly will. (And after that, there'll be nothing left.)
Yeah well, no. Did much better on Labour transfers.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 05:19:17 AM
Critical count in Waterford now.

SF's David Cullinane's transfers (6,298) could decide whether John Halligan (i, formerly The Workers' Party) can overhaul the 835 gap to Brendan Kenneally (FF).
Halligan's victory is one of the coolest things of the night. ;D

Also, is Colm Keaveney (Labour) an actual transfermagnet? More than doubled his tally so far, with more to come, and by now more than 50% likely to nick a seat imho.

Another person to mention is Robert Troy (FF-Longford & Westmeath). An FF freshman, beating the FF incumbents to salvage the party a seat. Maybe FF could have done a teeny bit better if they'd run more fresh faces elsewhere?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 05:25:25 AM
Ciaran Lynch (Labour - Cork SC) becomes the first person to be elected today. As expected, of course - they started the day by distributing his running mate's votes.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: YL on February 27, 2011, 06:19:54 AM
Fourth count in Kerry South: Gleeson eliminated, Sheahan (FG) some way behind the two Independents.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 06:25:32 AM
Deirdre Clune confirmed as second FG incumbent to lose seat. Her ridistribution is almost a formality - can't see the SF candidate pick up the needed votes to overtake Michael McGrath (FF), seeing as Buttimer (FG) will be receiving the bulk of these votes. (Simon Coveney, FG, elected on Lynch's surplus.)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: YL on February 27, 2011, 07:20:49 AM
Why is Wicklow being so slow?  The eliminated candidates haven't exactly had large numbers of votes to redistribute.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 07:24:06 AM
They didn't release the first count until late last night. I think they basically had a full recount on account of the order of also-runs' eliminations before releasing the first count.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: YL on February 27, 2011, 07:33:57 AM
On the RTE website, Dún Laoghaire seems to have gone back to the elimination of the Green.

EDIT: now it's gone back to roughly what it was before, so I presume that was something to do with them editing the figures after the recount (and the recount doesn't seem to have changed much).


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 07:42:52 AM
Deirdre Clune confirmed as second FG incumbent to lose seat. Her ridistribution is almost a formality - can't see the SF candidate pick up the needed votes to overtake Michael McGrath (FF), seeing as Buttimer (FG) will be receiving the bulk of these votes. (Simon Coveney, FG, elected on Lynch's surplus.)
Buttimer's surplus is large enough that they'll have to distribute it before McGrath can partay.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: YL on February 27, 2011, 07:48:08 AM
Louth: Nash (Lab) elected, and has a surplus of 756 which is slightly more than the difference between Fitzpatrick (FG) and Carroll (FF), so they'll have another count but it would be bizarre if it changed the order.  So the seats actually elected will be FG 2, Lab 1, SF 1.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 08:07:40 AM
The misspelled O'Keeffe is the first person elected in Galway West.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Franzl on February 27, 2011, 08:09:14 AM
Am I correct in assuming the probability of an FG majority government is virtually zero?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: YL on February 27, 2011, 08:35:49 AM
Kerry South: Griffin (FG) elected with a 1,540 surplus.  Healy-Rae is 1,461 ahead of Sheahan, which I'd guess is too much for the latter to make up, so I presume everyone's favourite Kerry dynasty lives on.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 27, 2011, 08:50:38 AM

Why is Labour traditionally strong in southern Ireland than it is in northern Ireland?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 27, 2011, 08:58:02 AM
The south of Ireland used to have a lot of agricultural labourers and they used to form the backbone of Labour support before the late 1960s. Further north we're looking at more in the way of smallholders and so on. And as voting patterns in Ireland have tended to be passed down the generations...


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 27, 2011, 09:01:03 AM
The south of Ireland used to have a lot of agricultural labourers and they used to form the backbone of Labour support before the late 1960s. Further north we're looking at more in the way of smallholders and so on. And as voting patterns in Ireland have tended to be passed down the generations...

Almost true. But I should stress here Agricultural labourer unions. There is also much more agri-industry in the south of the country.

Amazingly, Cork South Central manages to return the exact same party contigent as in 2007. The only consistuency to elect two FF TDs so far, though it looks like Laois-Offaly might do that as well. Oh, the localism of the Irish.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 09:04:15 AM
...and you do stress "might" - going to go down to the wire.

Yeah, Labour was traditionally a party of South Leinster and to a lesser extent of Munster - areas that had a landless agricultural proletariat (kind of like Norfolk, then). Labour becoming more a party of Dublin didn't start to emerge until the 60s, and the process wasn't really completed until the 90s (and the merger with the sane wing of Official Sinn Fein Democratic Left. Which then arguably took over the party - Pat Rabbitte and Eamon Gilmore both being former DL TDs.)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 09:08:15 AM
If we're counting 40s groupers National Labour, County Wicklow was without a Labour TD for just two years ending with the merger with DL - and it was a three-seater for much of the time. By contrast, Dublin did sometimes have no Labour TDs whatsoever between the wars.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 27, 2011, 09:15:36 AM
...and you do stress "might" - going to go down to the wire.

Yeah, Labour was traditionally a party of South Leinster and to a lesser extent of Munster - areas that had a landless agricultural proletariat (kind of like Norfolk, then). Labour becoming more a party of Dublin didn't start to emerge until the 60s, and the process wasn't really completed until the 90s (and the merger with the sane wing of Official Sinn Fein Democratic Left. Which then arguably took over the party - Pat Rabbitte and Eamon Gilmore both being former DL TDs.)

Basically. Though by the 90s DL had pretty much shed all its republican baggage (and wasn´t supporting North Korea any more).

Wicklow was the personal fiefdom consistuency which elected James Everett (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Everett) for over forty years. An interesting character and the main cause iirc of the National Labour-Labour split.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 27, 2011, 09:22:30 AM
Also, I recall reading on the Wikipedia that eastern Ireland had more large landholders and western Ireland had more smallholders. Is there any truth to this or is it yet another case of Wikipedia making stuff up?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 09:26:31 AM
No, that's quite right (though I suppose you can replace small with tiny and large with normal :P )


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Franzl on February 27, 2011, 09:27:08 AM
Am I correct in assuming the probability of an FG majority government is virtually zero?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 27, 2011, 09:27:38 AM
Talking of personality politics and Labour, the Spring dynasty is back in the Dail. Yeah, that was declared last night, but worth a minor note somewhere.

Almost true. But I should stress here Agricultural labourer unions. There is also much more agri-industry in the south of the country.

I sort of assumed that was a given, given 'Labour' :)

Labour will certainly take back the Carlow/Kilkenny seat lost in 2007, fwiw. Again, obvious, but related to this topic.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 27, 2011, 09:28:57 AM
Also, I recall reading on the Wikipedia that eastern Ireland had more large landholders and western Ireland had more smallholders. Is there any truth to this or is it yet another case of Wikipedia making stuff up?

When are we talking about here?

Yes I know my unions comment was obvious but it´s important. It´s not like there were no agricultural labourers in the west of Ireland in the 1920s. Much the opposite actually... but they didn´t vote Labour.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 27, 2011, 09:29:36 AM
No, that's quite right (though I suppose you can replace small with tiny and large with normal :P )

Does that fact have any impact on voting patterns anymore though?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 09:30:30 AM
Am I correct in assuming the probability of an FG majority government is virtually zero?
I'd have to actually do the math to see if that's an appropriate use of "virtually".

Mind you, with all these independents, it doesn't necessarily mean there'll be a coalition. Might be a minority. Can't begin to tell until the dust has settled and everybody's had a good night's sleep.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 27, 2011, 09:32:17 AM
Yes I know my unions comment was obvious but it´s important. It´s not like there were no agricultural labourers in the west of Ireland in the 1920s. Much the opposite actually... but they didn´t vote Labour.

True, true.

No, that's quite right (though I suppose you can replace small with tiny and large with normal :P )

Does that fact have any impact on voting patterns anymore though?

Yeah, because it means there are more farmers in the west.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 27, 2011, 09:33:19 AM
Richard Body Barrett is about to be elected in Dun Laoghaire. A victory for the Bourgeois Trots.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 09:35:10 AM
No no no he won't - all of that FG surplus will go to Mary Hanafin!

Well, hopefully not, but... gotta do it the hard way and actually count those ballot papers yet again.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 27, 2011, 09:38:18 AM
Why have more... er... exotic... forms of leftness been unusually popular in Dun Laoghaire for about thirty years?

Talking of Dublin in general, the results in the more working class constituencies are some of the most interesting of the election. Will Epic Fail ever get those votes back?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 27, 2011, 09:41:42 AM
Based on the situation in the 7 remaining constituencies, here is an estimate of realistic best and worst case scenarios for each party :

FG : 75 to 79
Lab : 35 to 38
FF : 19 to 22
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 16 to 21


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: YL on February 27, 2011, 09:46:16 AM
Am I correct in assuming the probability of an FG majority government is virtually zero?

It is zero: they don't have enough candidates in the remaining undeclared constituencies.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 27, 2011, 09:49:16 AM
Well done to Irish Labour!


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 27, 2011, 09:51:51 AM
Why have more... er... exotic... forms of leftness been unusually popular in Dun Laoghaire for about thirty years?

Talking of Dublin in general, the results in the more working class constituencies are some of the most interesting of the election. Will Epic Fail ever get those votes back?

Alot of Boyd Barrett´s initial support came from his opposition to the redevelopment of Dun Laoghaire Baths (a ghastly plan to destroy an old Victorian waterfront and replace them with big shiny modern apartments for very rich people). But despite this I doubt he could have any chance in any other consistuency in Ireland (had things turned out slightly differently BOTH Bacik and BB would have been elected and they would both be unelected in nearly all Irish consistuencies and not just Rural ones). It´s probably a combination of the Sea air, the Monkstown area (which attracts alot of "arty" types) and perhaps the most important, historical residues of the region´s unionism which has easily converted into Liberal anti-Catholicism. Though it does seems that RBB does actually have something of a working class vote down the south of the consistuency - though why that it is, I have no idea.

As for whether FF can take back working-class Dublin, the answer is almost certainly no. For the last 15 years they have been losing these regions at a local level - most of North and West Dublin is already represented at local council level by Labour, SF and far-left councillers more so than FF. It is hard to see how they can rebuild themselves there. What I find even more interesting actually is how badly FG did in working-class urban areas, far worse than they would have done in the 80s with these national percentages - no seat in Dublin NW (now FG and FF free), a seat in Dublin Central but with only 19% of the vote, practically the same in Dublin South Central...


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 27, 2011, 09:55:23 AM
Gombeen Dynasty and Tom "I´m not FF really" Fleming elected in Kerry South. Oh well...


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: YL on February 27, 2011, 09:56:16 AM
The cap survives:
http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/kerry-south.html


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 09:56:36 AM
Thank God. There is still some insanity left in this world.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 27, 2011, 09:57:33 AM
Well, their caps are magical, so maybe it shouldn't come as a surprise.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Franzl on February 27, 2011, 09:58:17 AM

Not sure they should be happy about possibly forming government in the long-term.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 10:00:04 AM
The cap survives:
http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/kerry-south.html

"Kapp" in my dialect is a mild insult also used as a term of an endearment, and implying stupidity or sillyness.
Very fitting, somehow.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 10:01:50 AM
Boyd also elected - gap grew on surplus redistribution.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 10:02:35 AM
Funny how the five outstanding constituencies split the country down the middle.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 27, 2011, 10:02:57 AM

Not sure they should be happy about possibly forming government in the long-term.

Yeah, in reality this isn't so good for them. They risk association with a government led by a stupid used car salesman which will inevitably be unpopular soon.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 27, 2011, 10:10:53 AM

Not sure they should be happy about possibly forming government in the long-term.

Yeah, in reality this isn't so good for them. They risk association with a government led by a stupid used car salesman which will inevitably be unpopular soon.

True, but becoming the second party isn't really anything to be sniffed at.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Franzl on February 27, 2011, 10:15:34 AM

Not sure they should be happy about possibly forming government in the long-term.

Yeah, in reality this isn't so good for them. They risk association with a government led by a stupid used car salesman which will inevitably be unpopular soon.

True, but becoming the second party isn't really anything to be sniffed at.

Indeed, but being junior coalition partner yet again, I imagine, will ruin their long-term chances of becoming a "serious" player.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 27, 2011, 10:21:45 AM
It´s probably a combination of the Sea air, the Monkstown area (which attracts alot of "arty" types) and perhaps the most important, historical residues of the region´s unionism which has easily converted into Liberal anti-Catholicism.

Ah, so an area radically outside cultural norms leading to a tendency to vote for unusual candidates/parties; makes sense and it isn't as though such places are unusual outside Ireland.

Quote
As for whether FF can take back working-class Dublin, the answer is almost certainly no. For the last 15 years they have been losing these regions at a local level - most of North and West Dublin is already represented at local council level by Labour, SF and far-left councillers more so than FF. It is hard to see how they can rebuild themselves there.

Some of the drops in support there are just astounding; in Dublin NW the FF vote fell by 37.1pts and while things weren't quite so extreme elsewhere...

Actually the survival of FF's working class base in 'seedy Dublin' until this year is probably more remarkable than the collapse itself, as essentially rural voting patterns in a big city are wont to be.

Quote
What I find even more interesting actually is how badly FG did in working-class urban areas, far worse than they would have done in the 80s with these national percentages - no seat in Dublin NW (now FG and FF free), a seat in Dublin Central but with only 19% of the vote, practically the same in Dublin South Central...

Yeah, that's true. FG suffering from identification with middle class politics?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 27, 2011, 10:27:01 AM

Not sure they should be happy about possibly forming government in the long-term.

Yeah, in reality this isn't so good for them. They risk association with a government led by a stupid used car salesman which will inevitably be unpopular soon.

True, but becoming the second party isn't really anything to be sniffed at.

Indeed, but being junior coalition partner yet again, I imagine, will ruin their long-term chances of becoming a "serious" player.

Things may be different this time; there are now elements in Fine Gael that would much rather cobble together some sort of arrangement with independents than deal with their traditional partners and the very fact that Fine Gael clearly won the election might alter priorities. Of course things might continue as they have always done regardless.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 27, 2011, 10:28:35 AM
Based on the situation in the 7 remaining constituencies, here is an estimate of realistic best and worst case scenarios for each party :

FG : 75 to 79
Lab : 35 to 38
FF : 19 to 22
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 16 to 21

Updated :

FG : 74 to 79
Lab : 36 to 38
FF : 19 to 21
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 17 to 21


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 27, 2011, 10:30:07 AM
Will labour join a FG-led coalition ? It would be a rather stupid thing to do at this point.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 10:30:19 AM
Carlow-Kilkenny didn't manage to elect five candidates in one count. :( It actually looked possible (though never likely.) Now the SF redistribution elected Labour and one FF guy, and they're redistributing Labour's surplus to show nothing in the world can save the other FF guy and there are indeed three FG seats here.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 10:33:30 AM
And technically, the last Green is only just being redistributed now by the slowcounting folks of Wicklow.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 27, 2011, 10:37:45 AM
John Gormley blames the Green's failure on doing a "deal with the devil". Look across the Irish sea, Nick.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 27, 2011, 10:46:43 AM
Are surpluses not transfered in Irish STV?

They are yes.
They are distibuted where there is sufficient surpus ballots to save the next to be exluded candidate.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 10:49:32 AM
Derek Nolan elected in Galway, with a mini surplus still large enough to determine which FG candidate gets the shaft. (The other two and Noel Grealish would then presumably be elected, shutting Catherine Connolly out.)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 27, 2011, 11:00:35 AM
Who said the PDs were dead?
5 have been or will be elected this time out... more than in 2007.

Noel Grealish (i-Galway W)
Ciaran Cannon (FG-Galway E)
Mary Mitchell O’Connor (FG-Dún Laoighaire)
Peter Mathews (FG-Dublin S)
Derek Keating (FG-Dublin MW)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 27, 2011, 11:34:05 AM
Critical count in Waterford now.

SF's David Cullinane's transfers (6,298) could decide whether John Halligan (i, formerly The Workers' Party) can overhaul the 835 gap to Brendan Kenneally (FF).
Halligan's victory is one of the coolest things of the night. ;D

Nobody saw that one coming.

Also, is Colm Keaveney (Labour) an actual transfermagnet? More than doubled his tally so far, with more to come, and by now more than 50% likely to nick a seat imho.

And yet might not make it. That could be very close with Broderick.

Another person to mention is Robert Troy (FF-Longford & Westmeath). An FF freshman, beating the FF incumbents to salvage the party a seat. Maybe FF could have done a teeny bit better if they'd run more fresh faces elsewhere?

Maybe, maybe not. Fresh faces elsewhere didn't necessarily work out for them either.

I know Troy's brother. The reception he picked up on the doorsteps was no better than any other FF candidate got - so I imagine they'll be as surprised as anyone by the result.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 27, 2011, 11:50:19 AM
So, then six Trots elected? We have the 5 ULA (Boyd Barrett in Dún Laoghaire, Collins in Dublin SC, Daly in Dublin N, Higgins in Dublin W, Healy in Tipperary S) and Halligan in Waterford.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 27, 2011, 12:13:13 PM
Anybody care to do a map/list of the decline in FF's vote share by constituency?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on February 27, 2011, 12:22:00 PM
()

Guaranteed to induce cultural cringe.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 27, 2011, 12:23:37 PM
Are those the Healy-Raes?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on February 27, 2011, 12:38:37 PM

Yes.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 12:39:13 PM
Aye.

Pretty much everywhere now being on hold as lesser FG candidates seek recounts. [/slight exaggeration. Alas, slight]


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 27, 2011, 01:00:53 PM
I'm sure that (like Cameron & the Tories) Kenny & Fine Gael are rather glad they didn't get an outright majority - they may ally with independents, but a Labour coalition is more likely, which means that there'll be two parties to absorb voter anger in the coming years rather than just one.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Kevinstat on February 27, 2011, 01:06:45 PM
Are surpluses not transfered in Irish STV?

They are yes.
They are distibuted where there is sufficient surpus ballots to save the next to be exluded candidate.

Does the quota go down when there are exhausted ballots?  Otherwise I can't see why a 6th count was necessary in Kerry South.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 01:10:05 PM
The quota is not amended.

Griffin's surplus was 1540. Healy-Rae's lead on Sheehan (a third defeated FG incumbent, btw) was only 1461. You're right that Fleming was actually safe by then, but declaring someone elected without a quota when there are still things to count is apparently not done.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Kevinstat on February 27, 2011, 01:18:59 PM
The quota is not amended.

Griffin's surplus was 1540. Healy-Rae's lead on Sheehan (a third defeated FG incumbent, btw) was only 1461. You're right that Fleming was actually safe by then, but declaring someone elected without a quota when there are still things to count is apparently not done.

Thanks.  My quick math was bad.  I thought Griffin's surplus was much smaller.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 27, 2011, 01:28:20 PM
Why are the last constituencies so slow to count ballots ?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Kevinstat on February 27, 2011, 01:29:52 PM
Have any recounts changed results so far?  Even the order of eliminations, declared elections and surpluss transfers?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 27, 2011, 01:29:59 PM
Why are the last constituencies so slow to count ballots ?

Recounts


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 27, 2011, 01:35:13 PM

But even before recounts were called it seemed like the last 5-7 constituencies were still counting whereas any other had already finished since a while.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 27, 2011, 01:41:40 PM
Why does Dick Roche want a recount? He's not going to win.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on February 27, 2011, 01:44:12 PM
Here's a map showing the drop in Fianna Fail's vote:

()

Their biggest falls came in the Dublin area, particularly in the north. They dropped less in the inner areas, but of course they had fewer votes to lose there. The smallest decline was in Mayo, where they had only 24% in 2007.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 27, 2011, 01:48:36 PM
Looking at the Wicklow results... Kavanagh's transfers to his running mates seem rather poor : less than 60%. It would be a shame if Labour didn't manage to elect a single MP despite polling over the quota.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 01:48:46 PM
Why does Dick Roche want a recount? He's not going to win.
Nor is Liam Quinn.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 01:51:47 PM
Have any recounts changed results so far?  Even the order of eliminations, declared elections and surpluss transfers?
There's a rumour that the all day Galway East recount will result in McHugh pipping Broderick after all.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 01:53:47 PM
And Wicklow has apparently adjourned. They seem to think they have many months to count. :P


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 02:23:36 PM
Which type of politicAL distirbution the new independents are.

Tom Fleming, Michael Healy-Rae, Mattie McGrath - iFF
Michael Lowry - iFG, not that it makes a difference in practice
Shane Ross, Mick Wallace - sorta like the PDs
John Halligan, Seamus Healy - Trots
Finian McGrath, Maureen O'Sullivan - also left field, but not far out or anything
Catherine Murphy - ?
Thomas Pringle - ?
Ming Flanagan - free weed & free peat


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on February 27, 2011, 02:27:02 PM
Pringle is ex-SF, so presumably left. My paper tells me Murphy is 'left' though that's based on assumptions based on Wikipedia.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: ilikeverin on February 27, 2011, 02:27:44 PM
Pringle is ex-SF, so presumably left. My paper tells me Murphy is 'left' though that's based on assumptions based on Wikipedia.

According to Wiki, Thomas Pringle (who didn't have a Wiki page until... yesterday) is some variety of lefty.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on February 27, 2011, 02:28:48 PM
Now the fun starts.  Question is whether the new guys will figure out why the old guys lost and take the correct steps - otherwise, they'll be booted out the next time too b/c it ain't like the situation will change much.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: ObserverIE on February 27, 2011, 02:54:56 PM
Two questions,

Will there be a by election in Dublin for European Parliament

No. A replacement list is offered by each candidate before the European Parliament elections and the replacement will be appointed from that list.

Quote
Which type of politicAL distirbution the new independents are.

On the left:

Five from the United Left Alliance:
Higgins (Dublin West), Daly (Dublin North) - both Socialist Party.
Boyd-Barrett (Dún Laoghaire), Collins (Dublin South Central) - both People Before Profit (Boyd-Barrett is a member of the Socialist Workers' Party, whose front organisation People Before Profit is, while Collins is a former member of the Socialist Party).
Healy (Tipperary South) - Workers and Unemployed Action Group (local group in Clonmel town).

Other left:
O'Sullivan (Dublin Central) and McGrath (Dublin North Central) - both associated with the late Tony Gregory, would be generally left of Labour but pragmatic where local issues are concerned.
Murphy (Kildare North) - former member of the Workers' Party,Democratic Left and Labour who left the latter party in 2004.
Halligan (Waterford) - former member of the Workers' Party who left due to disagreements on local service charges, was unsucessfully wooed by Labour as a candidate earlier this year.
Pringle (Donegal South West) - originally elected as an independent to the local county council and then self-described as a "republican socialist", then joined and subsequently left Sinn Féin.
Wallace (Wexford) - building contractor and property developer who runs the local soccer team and who was noted during the last decade for using properties to host banners opposing Irish facilitation of the US invasion of Iraq and the war in Kosovo among other causes. Leftish but maverick.

"Gene-pool" FF:
Fleming (Kerry South) - stood as an independent after failing to be selected at this election.
McGrath (Tipperary South) - spent four years as a semi-permanent stone in the shoe of successive Fianna Fáil leaders before finally jumping ship earlier this year.
Healy-Rae (Kerry South) - no more need be said.

"Gene-pool" FG:
Lowry (Tipperary North) - former FG cabinet minister who was forced to stand down and subsequently resigned as a party member due to questionable business links, has acted as a "sugar daddy" for his constituency (a current major project is a proposed casino in a small village just off the main Dublin-Limerick road).

Other right:

Ross (Dublin South) - stockbroker, business journalist and general commentator and campaigner on shareholder issues. Has gained notice for his criticism of the business culture that led to the current crash (although he was less critical of some of the major figures involved during the time of the bubble itself). Member of the Senate for Trinity College Dublin and briefly a member of Fine Gael in the early 90s, which liaison ended badly.
Donnelly (Wicklow - possible) - former management consultant with McKinsey and Harvard Kennedy School of Government graduate, campaigned on economic issues in generally vague terms.

Both of these are highly critical of the terms of the EU/IMF bailout and general banking policy.

Others:
Flanagan (Roscommon-South Leitrim) - commonly known as "Ming", first stood as a campaigner for the legalisation of cannabis in the early 00s, later widened his appeal as a community activist and was elected to the Roscommon County Council in 2004. One of his main issues over the last few years has been in opposition to restrictions on turf-cutting brought in by EU regulations (the ability to cut and use turf as fuel instead of other fuels being a major issue in rural areas).


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 27, 2011, 02:59:19 PM
What's the matter with Kerry N-W Limerick? It doesn't seem like the sort of place to elect 1 Lab and 1 SF out of three seats.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: ObserverIE on February 27, 2011, 03:00:37 PM

Ross, very much so. Wallace, though, is a million miles away from the PDs.

Quote
John Halligan, Seamus Healy - Trots

Healy is certainly an ex-Trot. Halligan was a member of the Workers' Party, which is very definitely not Trotskyite.

Quote
Finian McGrath, Maureen O'Sullivan - also left field, but not far out or anything
Catherine Murphy - ?

I'd group these three fairly close together.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: ObserverIE on February 27, 2011, 03:02:06 PM
What's the matter with Kerry N-W Limerick? It doesn't seem like the sort of place to elect 1 Lab and 1 SF out of three seats.

Large leftish vote in Tralee, which is a sizeable town by Irish standards, combined with a large republican vote in Kerry generally.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 27, 2011, 03:11:08 PM
What's the matter with Kerry N-W Limerick? It doesn't seem like the sort of place to elect 1 Lab and 1 SF out of three seats.

Large leftish vote in Tralee, which is a sizeable town by Irish standards, combined with a large republican vote in Kerry generally.

What's the cause of the republican vote in Kerry?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on February 27, 2011, 03:27:19 PM
I know that Séamus Kirk, the Ceann Comhairle, was automatically returned to the 31st Dáil without having to face the voters, but will tradition have him retain the post or is he likely to be replaced by someone else as the Speaker?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 03:27:51 PM
So I misremembered on Wallace. :P

The Workers Party is... to SF as Trots are to Labour? Is that an apt analogy?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 27, 2011, 03:32:45 PM
Have any recounts changed results so far?  Even the order of eliminations, declared elections and surpluss transfers?
There's a rumour that the all day Galway East recount will result in McHugh pipping Broderick after all.

That is indeed what has happened. McHugh at 8,371, Broderick at 8,365.

I know that Séamus Kirk, the Ceann Comhairle, was automatically returned to the 31st Dáil without having to face the voters, but will tradition have him retain the post or is he likely to be replaced by someone else as the Speaker?

Since 1997 the Ceann Comhairle has been replaced at each new Dáil.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on February 27, 2011, 03:37:44 PM
What's the matter with Kerry N-W Limerick? It doesn't seem like the sort of place to elect 1 Lab and 1 SF out of three seats.

Large leftish vote in Tralee, which is a sizeable town by Irish standards, combined with a large republican vote in Kerry generally.

What's the cause of the republican vote in Kerry?

The legacy of Ballyseedy lingers. Kerry was a stronghold of anti treaty forces.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executions_during_the_Irish_Civil_War#Unofficial_killings


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: ObserverIE on February 27, 2011, 03:41:47 PM
So I misremembered on Wallace. :P

The Workers Party is... to SF as Trots are to Labour? Is that an apt analogy?

The Workers' Party are Tankies.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 03:55:38 PM
Meh, same thing. :P To other Trots as other Trots are to Labour. Except that Halligan has left because he wasn't tankie enough for the party anymore, so...


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on February 27, 2011, 04:01:22 PM
I notice that Enda Kenny is also Father of the Dáil as well as presumptively the next Taoiseach.  Who else in various Parliaments has held the dual title of Father and PM (however so called).


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 27, 2011, 04:08:56 PM
Callaghan became Father of the House just four years after ceasing to be PM, and the same is true of Churchill the second time round.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 27, 2011, 04:14:28 PM
()


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 04:21:40 PM
Broderick's vote went mostly to Kitt, Connaughton and Cannon, all of which are now elected. Keaveney is ahead of McHugh by about 1200 votes, and there's about 1000 votes of FF surplus and 800 votes of FG surplus. I suppose they'll try to wrap that up tonight while the other counts all continue tomorrow.

I suppose counts today - and especially from tomorrow on - function on less personnel than yesterday night? Which would also explain the tales of legendary counts going on for up to ten days?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on February 27, 2011, 04:22:09 PM
I notice that Enda Kenny is also Father of the Dáil as well as presumptively the next Taoiseach.  Who else in various Parliaments has held the dual title of Father and PM (however so called).

It happened a few times in Northern Ireland with O'Neill and Faulkner. I am unaware of such a title in the present NI Assembly, but pretty confident Big Ian was oldest member and First minister.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 27, 2011, 04:30:17 PM
I notice that Enda Kenny is also Father of the Dáil as well as presumptively the next Taoiseach.  Who else in various Parliaments has held the dual title of Father and PM (however so called).

It happened a few times in Northern Ireland with O'Neill and Faulkner. I am unaware of such a title in the present NI Assembly, but pretty confident Big Ian was oldest member and First minister.

Well it's rarely a formal title. But he'd have had it even then as a former member of the Stormont Parliament and of all subsequent devolved institutions in Northern Ireland.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 27, 2011, 04:42:23 PM
I notice that Enda Kenny is also Father of the Dáil as well as presumptively the next Taoiseach.  Who else in various Parliaments has held the dual title of Father and PM (however so called).

Éamon de Valera was Father of the Dáil and Taoiseach from 1953 to 1959.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Kevinstat on February 27, 2011, 04:49:00 PM
It looks like Fidelma Healy Eames (FG-Galway West (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/galway-west.html)) requested a fell recount before she (must be a she) was eliminated, as the Labour surplus could technically have put her ahead of running-mate Seán Kyne).  It's technically possible that she could lose more votes in this recount than she would end up losing by after the 11th count, although realistically she wouldn't gain 56 votes on Kyne (to tie him if the current 10th count results stood) or 57 votes on him (to beat him) from a 129-vote Labour surplus, so having a full recount now means that any recount tomorrow (it looks like the count will adjorn for the day after this recount) likely won't have to be as extensive.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Kevinstat on February 27, 2011, 04:54:55 PM
Broderick's vote went mostly to Kitt, Connaughton and Cannon, all of which are now elected. Keaveney is ahead of McHugh by about 1200 votes, and there's about 1000 votes of FF surplus and 800 votes of FG surplus. I suppose they'll try to wrap that up tonight while the other counts all continue tomorrow.

Will the surpluses of the three elected candidates be done in separate counts (in descending order of the candidate's surplus)?  Kitt's surplus will probably clinch it for Keaveney.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 27, 2011, 05:03:21 PM
Based on the situation in the 7 remaining constituencies, here is an estimate of realistic best and worst case scenarios for each party :

FG : 75 to 79
Lab : 35 to 38
FF : 19 to 22
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 16 to 21

Updated :

FG : 74 to 79
Lab : 36 to 38
FF : 19 to 21
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 17 to 21

Ok, last update for today, with the 12 remaining seats.

FG : 74 to 76
Lab : 36 to 38
FF : 19 to 21
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 18 to 20


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Kevinstat on February 27, 2011, 05:04:24 PM
Broderick's vote went mostly to Kitt, Connaughton and Cannon, all of which are now elected. Keaveney is ahead of McHugh by about 1200 votes, and there's about 1000 votes of FF surplus and 800 votes of FG surplus. I suppose they'll try to wrap that up tonight while the other counts all continue tomorrow.

Will the surpluses of the three elected candidates be done in separate counts (in descending order of the candidate's surplus)?  Kitt's surplus will probably clinch it for Keaveney.

Galway West count now complete with Keaveney (Labour) being elected.  From the changes in the tallies it looks like only Kitt (FF)'s surplus votes was transferred, and Keaveney did grow his lead (not that he needed to as the FG surplus wouldn't have been enough for McHugh to catch up I don't think).


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 27, 2011, 05:09:34 PM
Yes, that is the way it's done.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on February 27, 2011, 05:19:53 PM
Two questions,

Will there be a by election in Dublin for European Parliament



No, they are allowed to name a replacement.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 28, 2011, 12:32:34 AM
I suppose counts today - and especially from tomorrow on - function on less personnel than yesterday night? Which would also explain the tales of legendary counts going on for up to ten days?

Indeed so.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 28, 2011, 01:24:41 AM
I must say, Ireland has probably my favorite voting system of any democratic country. You guys even keep the number of representatives per constituency low to reduce proportionality and manufacture majorities! If only your party system made sense, it'd be perfect.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 28, 2011, 02:59:41 AM
Not a good election for Members of the Government…

Brian Cowen, Taoiseach
Mary Coughlan, Tánaiste & Minister for Education
Brian Lenihan, Minister for Finance
Éamon Ó Cuív, Minister for Social Protection
Mary Hanafin, Minister for Tourism, Culture and Sport
Brendan Smith, Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food
Pat Carey, Minister for Community, Equality and Gaeltacht Affairs


Nor for the Junior Ministers...

John Curran, Chief Whip
Barry Andrews, MoS for Children
Dick Roche, MoS for European Affairs
Peter Power, MoS for Overseas Development
Martin Mansergh, MoS for Office of Public Works and the Arts
Billy Kelleher, MoS for Trade and Commerce
Dara Calleary, MoS for Public Service and Labour Affairs
John Malony, MoS for Disability and Mental Health issues
Seán Connick, MoS for Fisheries and Forestry
Conor Lenihan, MoS for Science and Natural Resources
Michael Finneran, MoS for Housing and Local Services
Áine Brady, MoS for Older People and Social Services
Seán Haughey, MoS for Lifelong Learning


Elected
Not Elected
Didn't Run


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 28, 2011, 03:04:57 AM
Interestingly, it looks like the only ministers who survived are those whose job is related to economy. Funny considering economy is the reason why FF is so hated. :P


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 28, 2011, 05:01:41 AM
From having a seat in every constituency in every election since 1932, FF today find themselves without Dáil seats in 25 constituencies.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 28, 2011, 07:52:13 AM
Two Members of the European Parliament were elected to the Dáil.

Under the system in place, they each submitted lists of substitutes before they were elected.

Joe Higgins (ULA-Dub W) will be replaced by his #2 substitute, Cllr. Ruth Coppinger. (His #1 replacement, Clare Daly was elected in Dublin N. Coppinger wasn't a candidate in the election.)

Alan Kelly (Lab-Tipp N) will also be replaced by his #2 substitute, Senator Phil Prendergast. (His #1 replacement, Arthur Spring was elected in Kerry N; Prendergast failed to get elected in Tipp S).


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 28, 2011, 07:59:34 AM
Dick Roche has called in the laywers to help his recount cause in Wicklow (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/wicklow.html), where he was originally eliminated as being 3 votes behind his running-mate on Count 13.

RTÉ report that they understand the gap has widened to 5; The Irish Times reports that Roche claims the gap has fallen to 2. I know who I believe.

Roche seems to be holding out hope that if he surpasses Fitzgerald he could still get elected, which I find hard to believe. Unless Joe Behan's transfers prove remarkably friendly to whichever FF candidate is standing, it's another constituency which will return a FF wipeout.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on February 28, 2011, 08:12:21 AM
FTR, the state of play right now is that 40 constituency counts are complete.
3 are undergoing re-counts.

The recounts are going on in Wicklow (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/wicklow.html), Laois-Offaly (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/wicklow.html) and Galway W (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/galway-west.html).

154 of 166 seats are allocated (70-36-18-13-5-12).


A meeting between Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore is scheduled this afternoon to discuss coalition negotiations. Such a coalition would have around a 60-seat majority, the largest absolute majority in the history of the State.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 28, 2011, 10:11:19 AM
When are the recounts expected to end in the remaining 3 constituencies ?

Also, why the hell would Labour and FG try to form a coalition ? They both have nothing to win and everything to lose.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 28, 2011, 10:24:50 AM
Well, firstly, it's what they've always done. Secondly, there may be a view that a stable government would be better for the country and helpful in terms with dealing with the country's new masters. Thirdly, politics is about power; you don't run for office just because doing so successfully is an ego boost, you want to actually do something. Labour may also feel that it would be better for its supporters (old and new) if it kept a leash on the more right-wing elements within Fine Gael. And so on and so forth.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 28, 2011, 10:36:08 AM
Well, firstly, it's what they've always done. Secondly, there may be a view that a stable government would be better for the country and helpful in terms with dealing with the country's new masters. Thirdly, politics is about power; you don't run for office just because doing so successfully is an ego boost, you want to actually do something. Labour may also feel that it would be better for its supporters (old and new) if it kept a leash on the more right-wing elements within Fine Gael. And so on and so forth.

Yeah, makes sense. But do they realize that strategically this is an epic fail that will likely kill them in the next election, meaning that they will have wasted a historic occasion to become a true government party ?

As for Fine Gael, they would be a lot safer and freer in their policy choice by forming a minority government with the support of a few independents.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 28, 2011, 10:51:58 AM
Yeah, makes sense. But do they realize that strategically this is an epic fail that will likely kill them in the next election, meaning that they will have wasted a historic occasion to become a true government party ?

Presumably such concerns exist, yes (particularly as that very thing has happened to them in the past; the aftermath of the 1992 election). I suspect that they will probably try to drive a harder bargain than they have done in the past.

Quote
As for Fine Gael, they would be a lot safer and freer in their policy choice by forming a minority government with the support of a few independents.

It isn't as though Fine Gael really believes in much as a political party and such a government would not be all that stable.

Still, early days yet. Media speculation is well ahead of itself (as usual) and is mostly based on past form.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: ObserverIE on February 28, 2011, 11:04:21 AM
Well, firstly, it's what they've always done. Secondly, there may be a view that a stable government would be better for the country and helpful in terms with dealing with the country's new masters. Thirdly, politics is about power; you don't run for office just because doing so successfully is an ego boost, you want to actually do something. Labour may also feel that it would be better for its supporters (old and new) if it kept a leash on the more right-wing elements within Fine Gael. And so on and so forth.

Yeah, makes sense. But do they realize that strategically this is an epic fail that will likely kill them in the next election, meaning that they will have wasted a historic occasion to become a true government party ?

As for Fine Gael, they would be a lot safer and freer in their policy choice by forming a minority government with the support of a few independents.

The problem for FG is that they will have a maximum of 76 seats assuming that they edge out Catherine Connolly (dissident left-wing Labour) for the last seat in Galway West.

Of the independents, they might be able to gain support on ideological grounds from Ross, Grealish (Galway West - ex-PD) and Donnelly (may sneak the last seat in Wicklow ahead of SF), which brings them to a maximum of 79.

The two Tipperary gombeens (Lowry and McGrath) might be willing to support them but it won't look good from the point of view of a "change" agenda; Michael Noonan (former leader and current finance spokesman) has warned against dependence on "high-maintenance" independents. Once you get to Ming the Merciless and The Cap Óg, then you're building a very shaky arrangement indeed.

Of course, if FF were to promise to abstain, then FG would have a majority of six on their own...


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 28, 2011, 11:09:52 AM
Perhaps it would make sense to unlock the older thread for post-election speculation like this?

Anyway, back to the election itself: Wicklow is looking like a complete mess. RTE report lawyers everywhere.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 28, 2011, 11:10:33 AM
Well, let's hope that the third time Labour will finally understand how not to lose half of their votes from one election to another... ::)

If we have to have a Labour-FG coalition, let's at least hope there will be some true agreement, and not a Clegg-like masquerade.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 28, 2011, 11:28:44 AM
Since Irish is treated as a majority language in theory, and English in practice, what language would that policy apply to? The Cap Mor's lingo?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PYbIGmQFLY (from 1:08)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 28, 2011, 12:04:28 PM
If we have to have a Labour-FG coalition, let's at least hope there will be some true agreement, and not a Clegg-like masquerade.

That's what i'm worried about for Irish Labour...


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 28, 2011, 12:56:21 PM
Apparently Ireland also elected its first ever openly gay TD in Dominic Hannigan (Labour - Meath E)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 28, 2011, 12:57:35 PM
Apparently Ireland also elected its first ever openly gay TD in Dominic Hannigan (Labour - Meath E)

He topped the poll as well.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DL on February 28, 2011, 01:00:27 PM
If we have to have a Labour-FG coalition, let's at least hope there will be some true agreement, and not a Clegg-like masquerade.

That's what i'm worried about for Irish Labour...

I think there are some key differences. For one thing the LibDems had NEVER previously formed a coalition of any kind and had never been in government. Also, the LibDems had spent the last 20-odd years positioning themselves as a centre-left party that was clearly angling to eventually form an alliance with Labour. The Tories were never seen as a "natural coalition partner" of theirs and on top of that since the Tories have over 300 seats and the LibDems just 50 or so - the LibDems are  heavily, heavily diluted within the coalition government.

In contrast in Ireland - Labour and FG have been coalition partners off and on for the past 6o or 70 years  - the Irish are used to this combo and most if not all people voting Labour in Ireland would have done so with the expectation that labour would probably form a coalition with FG. Also since FG will have about twoce as many seats as Labour - that means Labour is in a position to negotiate for at least one third of all cabinet portfolios (unlike the scraps the LDs got by virtue of being outnumbers 6 to 1 by the Tories).


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 28, 2011, 01:03:17 PM
"RTÉ's Valerie Cox says the Wicklow ballot was double-sided and the size of a tabloid newspaper page, so has been very hard to count."

Who's dumb enough to make an STV ballot double-sided? I demand that heads roll. (No objection to the size - you should see our local election ballot. Heck, I got a sample here. I'll measure it. Coming up in a minute.)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 28, 2011, 01:08:27 PM
Approximately 65 by 120 centimeters. There are  889 candidates...


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on February 28, 2011, 01:54:16 PM
I think they mean it was in two columns.  Here it is:

()


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on February 28, 2011, 01:55:48 PM
Approximately 65 by 120 centimeters. There are  889 candidates...

     Never occurred to them to render the ballot on multiple sheets, eh? :P


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 28, 2011, 01:57:21 PM
Approximately 65 by 120 centimeters. There are  889 candidates...

     Never occurred to them to render the ballot on multiple sheets, eh? :P
They probably noticed that that would be even less userfriendly. This is a single election. There are 93 seats to fill and everybody has 93 votes. (Open-list PR.)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 28, 2011, 03:09:24 PM
Recount results in Galway W and Laois/Offaly should come soon.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 28, 2011, 03:19:26 PM
And that in Wicklow has apparently arrived. Dick Roche is still eliminated.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 28, 2011, 03:23:35 PM
GW recount is already almost 1 hour late. L/O's should have come 8 minutes ago...


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Oakvale on February 28, 2011, 03:32:15 PM
Apparently Ireland also elected its first ever openly gay TD in Dominic Hannigan (Labour - Meath E)

Followed shortly after by its second openly gay TD, John Lyons (Labour - Dublin NW). :P


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 28, 2011, 03:49:13 PM
OMG! Roving hordes of homosexuals in Leinster House!


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on February 28, 2011, 07:34:07 PM
It is down to FF transfers in Wicklow. Brady (SF) ahead of Donnelly (Ind) by 57 votes for last seat.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on February 28, 2011, 07:42:21 PM
See part of what I hate about this country is the lack of an obvious left/right divide in parties. It's too bad because it could be interesting in the electoral system.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on February 28, 2011, 07:51:20 PM
Reports are that Laois-Offaly will be 2 FG, 2FF, 1 SF.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on February 28, 2011, 09:05:30 PM
It is down to FF transfers in Wicklow. Brady (SF) ahead of Donnelly (Ind) by 57 votes for last seat.

Looks like Donnelly will take it by a little over 100.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 28, 2011, 09:23:16 PM
See part of what I hate about this country is the lack of an obvious left/right divide in parties. It's too bad because it could be interesting in the electoral system.

Ah, but that's what makes it interesting.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: homelycooking on February 28, 2011, 09:44:43 PM
See part of what I hate about this country is the lack of an obvious left/right divide in parties. It's too bad because it could be interesting in the electoral system.

Au contraire, it's nice to have at least a few countries in the world where it's not just centre-left vs centre-right. Often that sort of structure just doesn't work in very pluralist societies, so from an analytical point of view, a political system like Ireland is fascinating.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Barnes on February 28, 2011, 10:21:59 PM
See part of what I hate about this country is the lack of an obvious left/right divide in parties. It's too bad because it could be interesting in the electoral system.

Au contraire, it's nice to have at least a few countries in the world where it's not just centre-left vs centre-right. Often that sort of structure just doesn't work in very pluralist societies, so from an analytical point of view, a political system like Ireland is fascinating.

I agree. It really is quite...different, and that makes it all the better! ;)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Kevinstat on February 28, 2011, 10:27:49 PM
The count's over in Wicklow (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/wicklow.html).  3 FG, 1 Lab and 1 i (Connelly) elected.  Brady (SF) requested a recount of counts 14-19 after the final (19th) count, but withdrew it a minute later.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Kevinstat on February 28, 2011, 10:39:24 PM
Based on the situation in the 7 remaining constituencies, here is an estimate of realistic best and worst case scenarios for each party :

FG : 75 to 79
Lab : 35 to 38
FF : 19 to 22
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 16 to 21

Updated :

FG : 74 to 79
Lab : 36 to 38
FF : 19 to 21
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 17 to 21

Ok, last update for today, with the 12 remaining seats.

FG : 74 to 76
Lab : 36 to 38
FF : 19 to 21
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 18 to 20

Not just realistic worst/best case scenarios now, although either possible final partisan tally (counting independents and indeed all candidates outside FG, Lab, FF and SF as a party) now seems realistic.

FG : 75 to 76
Lab : 37
FF : 20
SF : 14
Oth : 19 to 20


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on March 01, 2011, 12:42:10 AM
Wonder what the point of withdrawing the recount request within a minute was? If he'd just reconsidered he could have done that before the formal announcement - maybe it was intended as some silly kind of message?

Mind you. With hindsight it's good that Dick Roche got the major recount (it did shuffle quite a few figures, though he didn't benefit) out of the way as it would have to have happened anyways. And the same is true in Galway West (quite apart from the fact that Healy Eames might have gone on to win if not eliminated at that stage)... leaving Liam Quinn as the only pointlessly obnoxious recount hound.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on March 01, 2011, 12:49:47 AM
Wonder what the point of withdrawing the recount request within a minute was? If he'd just reconsidered he could have done that before the formal announcement - maybe it was intended as some silly kind of message?


I think it was because they were told it would not be a full recount.  They realized that there would be no chance of the result changing then and withdrew.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on March 01, 2011, 12:52:30 AM
Possible... although after they spent a whole day full-recounting with heightened scrutiny, shouldn't they have realized a second full recount of counts 1-13 couldn't change much?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on March 01, 2011, 01:02:35 AM
Just reporting what I heard from people who were at the hall. 

All told it was a good result for SF. Up from 4 seats last election and just missed on a few more. Hopefully they can build themselves into a robust opposition.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on March 01, 2011, 02:23:24 AM
42/43 constituencies complete.

Galway West (http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/galway-west.html) has a full count - but with the final seat determined by a margin of 17 votes in favour of FG, the trailing candidate Catherine Connolly (i, formerly Labour) has sought and been granted a re-count.

That won't begin until late this afternoon.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 01, 2011, 08:19:02 AM
Ok, I think now we've more or less final results. Just for the fun, let's see how the election would turn out if other voting systems were used :

PartySTVWTASNTVPR/CNat PR
Fine Gael76133791567
Labour3727341436
Fianna Fail20019734
Sinn Fein14316619
United Left50535
Oth/Ind1431322 (+3 greens)

STV : Single transferable vote, Ireland's voting system.
WTA : Winner-takes-all by constituency. The party winning a plurality gets every seat (similar to the system used for US presidential elections)
SNTV : Single non-transferable vote : the candidates getting the most votes in each constituency are elected.
PR/C : Proportional representation by constituency, using the Sainte-Lagüe method. Independents are counted separately and United Left candidates are counted together. Work in progress.
Nat PR : Proportional representation at the national level, using the Sainte-Lagüe method. Independent candidates must reach the quota (total vote/165) to be elected (only 2 did). The United Left candidates are counted as if they formed a single list. FF has one seat more than what it would be entitled to, due to the CC not being counted as a party member.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Hash on March 01, 2011, 10:46:41 AM
I'd be interested in this election run under FPTP, though it'd require somebody to divide the country into single-seat constituencies and try simulating results in those.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on March 01, 2011, 02:08:02 PM
In the last couple of years, the famous three most long-dominant parties - Liberals in Canada, Social Democrats in Sweden, and now Fianna Fail - have all had historically bad elections: the Liberals got their lowest-ever vote (though not seat total), the Social Democrats their lowest post-WWI vote (after doing it in 2006 as well), and Fianna Fail is now in third place.

Here's a final map, again shaded by seat number:
()


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: tpfkaw on March 01, 2011, 02:33:32 PM
In the last couple of years, the famous three most long-dominant parties - Liberals in Canada, Social Democrats in Sweden, and now Fianna Fail - have all had historically bad elections

Don't forget the LPJ!


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Verily on March 01, 2011, 02:37:02 PM
Yeah, I don't know. The Liberals in Canada and the Social Democrats in Sweden are struggling, but the LDPJ and FF really collapsed in a way neither the Liberals nor the Social Democrats have done. (Last I saw polls of Japan, the LDPJ had caught up to the DPJ but only because the DPJ had also become wildly unpopular, and both parties were languishing in the low 20s.)

Striking that every seat bordering Northern Ireland now has a Sinn Fein TD.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 01, 2011, 03:27:27 PM
Perhaps we could see it more as part of a pattern of previously dominant but weirdly unideological small 'c' conservative parties crashing and burning? If only because the same thing happened in Northern Ireland recently with the UUP.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 01, 2011, 03:31:44 PM
Perhaps we could see it more as part of a pattern of previously dominant but weirdly unideological small 'c' conservative parties crashing and burning? If only because the same thing happened in Northern Ireland recently with the UUP.

If this will prove true, good riddance. :P


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 01, 2011, 03:53:24 PM
Is there any chance of a Fine Gael / Sinn Fein government, even if only as a negotiating tool for Fine Gael as they work on their expected coalition with Labour?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 01, 2011, 03:56:11 PM
Is there any chance of a Fine Gael / Sinn Fein government, even if only as a negotiating tool for Fine Gael as they work on their expected coalition with Labour?

It would be weird considering that Sinn Fein has the most populist/left-wing rhetoric and would basically oppose anything proposed by FG.

...On the other hand, Irish politics don't make much sense ideologically, so you never know. :P


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 01, 2011, 04:01:20 PM
Gerry Adams laughed the idea off on RTE the other day.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 01, 2011, 04:07:39 PM
An FG-SF partnership is probably the only one that could never happen in any situation ever. FG and Lab are traditional partners, FF and Lab isn't any less ideologically coherent (the two parties formed government after the 1992 election), FG and FF are both parties of the right, Lab and SF are both parties of the left, and FF and SF are both republican parties. FG and SF have nothing in common.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Verily on March 01, 2011, 04:11:56 PM
Pretty much. I would think FG/Lab has about a 60% chance of happening, FG minority with FF abstaining and some independents in government about a 30% chance, and anything else around 10%.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: DistingFlyer on March 01, 2011, 04:14:40 PM
Perhaps we could see it more as part of a pattern of previously dominant but weirdly unideological small 'c' conservative parties crashing and burning? If only because the same thing happened in Northern Ireland recently with the UUP.

I wouldn't call the Liberals conservative, but the pattern of changing policies to fit popularity is apt - each party (though not so much the SAP) has been in power so often and so long, that the electorate has gotten tired of them, with other parties to the left and right providing a more hard-edged message that elicits more excitement. The desertion of Quebec, which was the reason for the Liberal dominance in the twentieth century, is also a big factor in Canada (and does tie into my previous point).
As well, all of these parties, while frequently changing their images & policies, have not done so as much in recent years, while political climates have continued to change. Perhaps they have all lost some of their capacity to alter themselves, and are now finding themselves on the wrong side of public opinion.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Verily on March 01, 2011, 04:21:30 PM
True, but the Liberals have never been dominant like the other parties. They were not always the largest party--they have fallen to very low seat totals before. True, they were often in government, but they were nowhere as dominant as FF or the LDPJ, and somewhat less so than the SAP. Canada and Sweden in general also have much stronger democratic-liberal traditions--Japan and Ireland both had dominant non-ideological conservative parties in part because their politics were (are) highly bound up in tradition and dynasties, and both have a disproportionate influence of rural areas in government. Not so in Canada or Sweden.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on March 01, 2011, 04:26:43 PM
Gerry Adams laughed the idea off on RTE the other day.

Haha, yeah and I think Enda would be downright insulted if he were even asked.  Not only do the politicians themselves hold the other side in contempt, but there is huge animosity among the rank and file as well. You wouldn't find the FG getting into bed with the murderous, commie Shinners and SF wouldn't form a coalition with the fascist, Quisling Blueshirts. Now of course there many people  are more nuanced and are moving forward from history, but there is still antagonism.

Basically no one right now would go into government with Sinn Fein and vice versa. Sinn Fein is going try to build on their gains by knocking a FG-Lab coalition on every cut to services they put forward.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 01, 2011, 04:49:51 PM
I wouldn't call the Liberals conservative, but the pattern of changing policies to fit popularity is apt - each party (though not so much the SAP) has been in power so often and so long, that the electorate has gotten tired of them, with other parties to the left and right providing a more hard-edged message that elicits more excitement. The desertion of Quebec, which was the reason for the Liberal dominance in the twentieth century, is also a big factor in Canada (and does tie into my previous point).

I wasn't thinking of the Canadian Liberals or the SAP. Neither have suffered an electoral collapse* and neither are small 'c' conservative clientelist parties (though there's always been a clientelist element to the Liberals, granted. But it's never been a defining feature of the party; no one votes Liberal because they want their cut) and both have clear enough ideologies; revisionist socialism (or whatever else anyone feels like calling it) and that oddly mild thing that is Canadian Nationalism. What does Fianna Fail, or for that matter the UUP, stand for these days? That's not actually a rhetorical question.

Of course that question has been impossible to answer without resorting for abuse for decades now. The problem for Fianna Fail is that all they had going for them was the Irish habit of passing down voting patterns down the generations irrespective of changing circumstance and the property boom. And when the latter turned into a depression the former was suddenly (and quite obviously) weaker than ever before.

*In particular the 'crisis' of the SAP is really only a crisis by the standards of the SAP. Fianna Fail, however, have just lost over half their support from the previous election. As have, interestingly enough, quite a few of the remaining genuine Christian Democratic parties in Europe, most of which have more in common with Fianna Fail than with their supposed comrades Fine Gael.

Must stress that I'm not playing around with any theories here, just randomly speculating.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on March 01, 2011, 05:01:03 PM
An FG-SF partnership is probably the only one that could never happen in any situation ever. FG and Lab are traditional partners, FF and Lab isn't any less ideologically coherent (the two parties formed government after the 1992 election), FG and FF are both parties of the right, Lab and SF are both parties of the left, and FF and SF are both republican parties. FG and SF have nothing in common.
Both are Irish parties.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on March 01, 2011, 05:08:59 PM
FG are sometimes still referred to as "The Law and Order Party" and considering this, their history and importantly their ´natural´ support base, I think we can rule out the SF-FG option.

Al, I would add that Fianna Fail´s base at a local level has been eroding for the last twenty years - at the last local election their traditional Dublin working class base collapsed. Large parts of Central Dublin now have no FF politician representing them at any level - local or national. But it was the power of the local machines that was once the essential basis of FF support. Also some of the social pillars that propped FF support for a long time have long disappeared as social forces. Republicanism is in the republic now meaningless beyond being a slogan. Political Catholicism is a joke here and would be treated as such should the Church even try get more organized politically. The anti-socialism hysteria Jack Lynch launced against Labour in 1969 would be unthinkable now for many reasons, but the decay of anti-liberalism and the Catholic church as a social force (and equally as important, a nationalist force) would have to be considered major factors.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 01, 2011, 05:20:52 PM
Al, I would add that Fianna Fail´s base at a local level has been eroding for the last twenty years -

Which, of course, is death for a clientelist party. Can't go round dispensing favours if there's no one in a position to do so.

Quote
Also some of the social pillars that propped FF support for a long time have long disappeared as social forces. Republicanism is in the republic now meaningless beyond being a slogan. Political Catholicism is a joke here and would be treated as such should the Church even try get more organized politically. The anti-socialism hysteria Jack Lynch launced against Labour in 1969 would be unthinkable now for many reasons, but the decay of anti-liberalism and the Catholic church as a social force (and equally as important, a nationalist force) would have to be considered major factors.

Yeah, that's one of the things I was trying to get at. Once all of that became irrelevant there was nothing left to rally around if things went down the tubes.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on March 01, 2011, 05:50:47 PM
FG are sometimes still referred to as "The Law and Order Party" and considering this, their history and importantly their ´natural´ support base, I think we can rule out the SF-FG option.

Al, I would add that Fianna Fail´s base at a local level has been eroding for the last twenty years - at the last local election their traditional Dublin working class base collapsed. Large parts of Central Dublin now have no FF politician representing them at any level - local or national. But it was the power of the local machines that was once the essential basis of FF support. Also some of the social pillars that propped FF support for a long time have long disappeared as social forces. Republicanism is in the republic now meaningless beyond being a slogan. Political Catholicism is a joke here and would be treated as such should the Church even try get more organized politically. The anti-socialism hysteria Jack Lynch launced against Labour in 1969 would be unthinkable now for many reasons, but the decay of anti-liberalism and the Catholic church as a social force (and equally as important, a nationalist force) would have to be considered major factors.

Maybe it is not your intention or I am misreading but I think you are overstating these social forces as the reason behind the FF collapse. While these changes over the past decades are undeniable and there has been a steady retreat in the Dublin area, their collapse is because the economy collapsed under their watch. They were still the largest national party by a good margin only 4 short years ago. I think it will be difficult for them to regain their standing now as they were largely as Al says a clientelist party. Further, some of the things they supposedly stood for are better articulated by other parties.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on March 01, 2011, 05:52:22 PM
FG are sometimes still referred to as "The Law and Order Party" and considering this, their history and importantly their ´natural´ support base, I think we can rule out the SF-FG option.

Al, I would add that Fianna Fail´s base at a local level has been eroding for the last twenty years - at the last local election their traditional Dublin working class base collapsed. Large parts of Central Dublin now have no FF politician representing them at any level - local or national. But it was the power of the local machines that was once the essential basis of FF support. Also some of the social pillars that propped FF support for a long time have long disappeared as social forces. Republicanism is in the republic now meaningless beyond being a slogan. Political Catholicism is a joke here and would be treated as such should the Church even try get more organized politically. The anti-socialism hysteria Jack Lynch launced against Labour in 1969 would be unthinkable now for many reasons, but the decay of anti-liberalism and the Catholic church as a social force (and equally as important, a nationalist force) would have to be considered major factors.

Maybe it is not your intention or I am misreading but I think you are overstating these social forces as the reason behind the FF collapse. While these changes over the past decades are undeniable and there has been a steady retreat in the Dublin area, their collapse is because the economy collapsed under their watch. They were still the largest national party by a good margin only 4 short years ago. I think it will be difficult for them to regain their standing now as they were largely as Al says a clientelist party. Further, some of the things they supposedly stood for are better articulated by other parties.

I don´t disagree. I was just putting things in historical context.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on March 01, 2011, 05:59:08 PM
FG are sometimes still referred to as "The Law and Order Party" and considering this, their history and importantly their ´natural´ support base, I think we can rule out the SF-FG option.

Al, I would add that Fianna Fail´s base at a local level has been eroding for the last twenty years - at the last local election their traditional Dublin working class base collapsed. Large parts of Central Dublin now have no FF politician representing them at any level - local or national. But it was the power of the local machines that was once the essential basis of FF support. Also some of the social pillars that propped FF support for a long time have long disappeared as social forces. Republicanism is in the republic now meaningless beyond being a slogan. Political Catholicism is a joke here and would be treated as such should the Church even try get more organized politically. The anti-socialism hysteria Jack Lynch launced against Labour in 1969 would be unthinkable now for many reasons, but the decay of anti-liberalism and the Catholic church as a social force (and equally as important, a nationalist force) would have to be considered major factors.

Maybe it is not your intention or I am misreading but I think you are overstating these social forces as the reason behind the FF collapse. While these changes over the past decades are undeniable and there has been a steady retreat in the Dublin area, their collapse is because the economy collapsed under their watch. They were still the largest national party by a good margin only 4 short years ago. I think it will be difficult for them to regain their standing now as they were largely as Al says a clientelist party. Further, some of the things they supposedly stood for are better articulated by other parties.

I don´t disagree. I was just putting things in historical context.

Got ya.  What is your home constituency anyway? It is too bad that voting is so restricted- especially considering the amount of people who've been forced to re-locate recently.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on March 01, 2011, 06:02:29 PM
FG are sometimes still referred to as "The Law and Order Party" and considering this, their history and importantly their ´natural´ support base, I think we can rule out the SF-FG option.

Al, I would add that Fianna Fail´s base at a local level has been eroding for the last twenty years - at the last local election their traditional Dublin working class base collapsed. Large parts of Central Dublin now have no FF politician representing them at any level - local or national. But it was the power of the local machines that was once the essential basis of FF support. Also some of the social pillars that propped FF support for a long time have long disappeared as social forces. Republicanism is in the republic now meaningless beyond being a slogan. Political Catholicism is a joke here and would be treated as such should the Church even try get more organized politically. The anti-socialism hysteria Jack Lynch launced against Labour in 1969 would be unthinkable now for many reasons, but the decay of anti-liberalism and the Catholic church as a social force (and equally as important, a nationalist force) would have to be considered major factors.

Maybe it is not your intention or I am misreading but I think you are overstating these social forces as the reason behind the FF collapse. While these changes over the past decades are undeniable and there has been a steady retreat in the Dublin area, their collapse is because the economy collapsed under their watch. They were still the largest national party by a good margin only 4 short years ago. I think it will be difficult for them to regain their standing now as they were largely as Al says a clientelist party. Further, some of the things they supposedly stood for are better articulated by other parties.

I don´t disagree. I was just putting things in historical context.

Got ya.  What is your home constituency anyway? It is too bad that voting is so restricted- especially considering the amount of people who've been forced to re-locate recently.

I currently live in Madrid but my family home is in Dublin South.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on March 01, 2011, 06:12:56 PM
Well, I don't think your vote would have had much impact in Dublin South anyway.  I presume Shane Ross will probably stay independent but vote FG.  So it looks like 5 votes for the pending coalition.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: afleitch on March 01, 2011, 06:17:58 PM
()

2009 Locals for comparison :)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 01, 2011, 06:19:50 PM
Pretty!

---

Talking of Dublin South, votes by party in 2011...

FG 36.4, Ross 23.5, Labour 18.0, FF 9.4, Greenies 6.8, SF 2.6

And the previous Labour surge in 1992...

FF 32.6, Labour 28.9, FG 20.3, PD 8.7, Greenis 3.8, DL 1.1


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on March 01, 2011, 06:27:09 PM
The Labour surge this time around was much more concentrated in working class areas. The swing to Labour in DS was well under the national average.

Btw, there is no counciller or TD from FF representating the whole consistuency of Dublin South Central. And there is only 3FG councillers and 1TD (who is a former lord mayor and totally not coincidentially, a complete tool) representating the area. I can´t imagine FF recovering in DSC from this - what is exactly is their ´natural´ base here?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 01, 2011, 06:52:01 PM
The Labour surge this time around was much more concentrated in working class areas. The swing to Labour in DS was well under the national average

Yeah, that's what struck me as interesting. Of course it might be just as fleeting as that of 1992, but it feels more real, at least potentially.

Quote
Btw, there is no counciller or TD from FF representating the whole consistuency of Dublin South Central. And there is only 3FG councillers and 1TD (who is a former lord mayor and totally not coincidentially, a complete tool) representating the area. I can´t imagine FF recovering in DSC from this - what is exactly is their ´natural´ base here?

Bribing the homeless?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on March 01, 2011, 06:55:51 PM
Yes but... a lot will depend on how Labour do in government.

FF could always try that old reliable... free booze. It´s pity for them there are much less illiterate people than back in the days when FF canvassers would fill out people´s ballots for them. Oh, the 30s how we miss you...


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 01, 2011, 07:06:32 PM
Yes but... a lot will depend on how Labour do in government.

No disagreement there at all.

Quote
FF could always try that old reliable... free booze. It´s pity for them there are much less illiterate people than back in the days when FF canvassers would fill out people´s ballots for them. Oh, the 30s how we miss you...

Do we?

Ah, but will they dare that after the fiasco that was free cheese?


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on March 01, 2011, 07:27:02 PM
Off topic: this thread helped me to get a question in tonight's quiz match, asking for the name of the European political party formed from the merger of the National Centre Party and the Blueshirts.  (The other team went for the Falange...)  Thanks guys. :)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 01, 2011, 08:26:32 PM
FG are sometimes still referred to as "The Law and Order Party" and considering this, their history and importantly their ´natural´ support base, I think we can rule out the SF-FG option.

Given my near total lack of knowledge of Irish politics, I only asked because the numbers would work as would a FG-FF option which I assumed would be impossible under the circumstances.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 01, 2011, 08:34:25 PM
I think the time has come to post that picture again:

()


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Kevinstat on March 01, 2011, 08:35:08 PM
Off topic: this thread helped me to get a question in tonight's quiz match, asking for the name of the European political party formed from the merger of the National Centre Party and the Blueshirts.  (The other team went for the Falange...)  Thanks guys. :)

It was a merger (in September 1933) of (in order of seats won at the previous election) Cumann na nGaedheal (the successor to pro-treaty Sinn Féin), the National Centre Party and the Blueshirts (tecnically the National Guard, formerly the Army Comrades Association, who don't seem to have been a political party in the strictest sense before "merging" with CnG and NCP to form Fine Gael).  The first Fine Gael leader was a Blueshirt, but he resigned as leader and left the party in September 1934.  He then formed the National Corporate Party, but according to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blueshirts#Fine_Gael_and_the_National_Corporate_Party) most Blueshirts stayed in Fine Gael.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: patrick1 on March 01, 2011, 09:17:12 PM
I think the time has come to post that picture again:

()

Haha, that is classic.  Never seen that before.

To be fair though, Given the current state of the SPL the game only vaguely resembles football :)


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 01, 2011, 09:40:56 PM
But it's never been a defining feature of the party; no one votes Liberal because they want their cut) and both have clear enough ideologies; revisionist socialism (or whatever else anyone feels like calling it) and that oddly mild thing that is Canadian Nationalism.

Has the Liberal Party traditionally stood for revisionism? I know regrettably little of Canadian history, but my impression was that the Trudeau government was the only Liberal government that had clear socialist tendencies.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 01, 2011, 11:23:07 PM
But it's never been a defining feature of the party; no one votes Liberal because they want their cut) and both have clear enough ideologies; revisionist socialism (or whatever else anyone feels like calling it) and that oddly mild thing that is Canadian Nationalism.

Has the Liberal Party traditionally stood for revisionism? I know regrettably little of Canadian history, but my impression was that the Trudeau government was the only Liberal government that had clear socialist tendencies.

No, revisionism was a reference to the Social Democrats.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on March 02, 2011, 12:45:03 AM
Presenting the recount results now... after the third round, Connolly has narrowed the gap by five votes.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on March 02, 2011, 12:49:34 AM
And I need to leave the house. Galway, you have wronged me. I vow eternal vengeance on thee.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 02, 2011, 01:22:30 AM
But it's never been a defining feature of the party; no one votes Liberal because they want their cut) and both have clear enough ideologies; revisionist socialism (or whatever else anyone feels like calling it) and that oddly mild thing that is Canadian Nationalism.

Has the Liberal Party traditionally stood for revisionism? I know regrettably little of Canadian history, but my impression was that the Trudeau government was the only Liberal government that had clear socialist tendencies.

No, revisionism was a reference to the Social Democrats.

Ah, yes, that would make much more sense.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Јas on March 02, 2011, 03:16:41 AM
Recount in Galway over - Kyne's 17 vote lead was maintained - so that concludes the counting.
The overall result:

2011      2007
Fine Gael7651
Labour3720
Fianna Fáil2077
Sinn Féin14  4
United Left  5
Independents   14  5
Green    6
PD   2


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 02, 2011, 08:40:23 AM
As the counts are now definitive, another update of my seat counts with other voting systems. I'll try to finish PR/constituency as soon as possible.

PartySTVWTASNTVPR/CNPR1NPR2
Fine Gael7613279646764
Labour372734333635
Fianna Fail20119373332
Sinn Fein14316181818
United Left505455
Oth/Ind14313107 (3G)12 (3G)

STV : Single transferable vote, Ireland's voting system.
WTA : Winner-takes-all by constituency. The party winning a plurality gets every seat (similar to the system used for US presidential elections)
SNTV : Single non-transferable vote : the candidates getting the most votes in each constituency are elected.
PR/C : Proportional representation by constituency, using the Sainte-Lagüe method. Independents are counted separately and United Left candidates are counted together.
Nat PR : Proportional representation at the national level, using the Sainte-Lagüe method. Independent candidates must reach the quota (total vote/165) to be elected (only 2 did). The United Left candidates are counted as if they formed a single list. FF has one seat more than what it would be entitled to, due to the CC not being counted as a party member.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 06, 2011, 08:02:57 AM
Bumping this because I've eventually finished my PR by constituency figure. I've also made two forms of national PR : one with a threshold of 0.6% (ie 1/165), excluding lists and independents who have got less than around 13,500 votes. The other which is pure St Lagüe. As you see, the only difference is the number of independents.

General note : in every system I've made sure to exclude the CC's seat from the count, so that FF get one seat more than "deserved". For constituency system, I've granted Kirk an immediate election in Louth and shared the 4 remaining seats as if it were a normal election.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Kevinstat on March 09, 2011, 07:57:25 AM
It seems like the result in Louth, at least by party, would have been the same if Kirk had not been automatically returned.  That's in definite contrast to the result in Cavan-Monaghan in 2007.


Title: Re: Irish Election Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 09, 2011, 03:00:52 PM
It seems like the result in Louth, at least by party, would have been the same if Kirk had not been automatically returned.  That's in definite contrast to the result in Cavan-Monaghan in 2007.

With STV, it's true indeed (due to epically poor FF transfers). With PR though, FF gets two seats (one elected + the CC).