Talk Elections

http://www.epicmra.com/press/Stwd_Survey_Feb2011_Media_Freq.pdf

Michigan is such a tease.

Wow, wasn't expecting this.

Odd, since the poll has Obama at a 50% favorable.  (The approval ratings are hard to compare since it uses Exellent/Good/Fair/Poor).

Although if the poll is right, it would make the election interesting, Romeny would loose NC, but win MI, lol.

Not buying it...

It's too early to be using likely voter models....

Its possible, PPP had Romney within 5 in December.

I don't believe this one either, Romney leading when he has a lower approval than the President doesn't add up. Michigan won't flip unless there's a landslide.

Favorability, not approval.

Obama vs. Huckabee

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Obama vs. Romney

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Obama vs. Gingrich

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Obama vs. Palin

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I could see Romney beating Obama in Michigan.

Not buying this - going completely against the prevailing wisdom.

     As can I, but for him to be doing so while losing North Carolina & Virginia seems genuinely bizarre.

WOW!
I expected Romney to lead in MI but not that big

Can someone explain to me what a "Likely Voter" is at this point?

Regardless, it still doesn't add up. Seems like the gap between favorability numbers is to much for Romney to have a lead.

This feels weird, but I could definitely see it happening.

This was a BIG surprise. But, Michigan is a tease. McCain made Michigan close for the first of weeks out of the Dem Convention, and he lost by about 16 points.

The best thing to glean from this poll is that Romney is pretty popular in Michigan and will likely bring the state close to being a tipping point state.

Skeptical doesn't begin to describe my reaction to this poll.

EPIC/MRA is not the most reliable pollster ever, certainly. Still, I could see Romney winning Michigan by a point or two while losing nationally--at least, it wouldn't be totally unrealistic.

Yes it wouldn't be that unrealistic in a close election.  However, unless North Carolina has shifted dramatically to the left and/ or Michigan dramatically to the right, I don't see Romney winning MI and loosing NC.

If ppp has Romney doing well in Wisconsin in their next poll, this one will carry more weight.

Ask Scott Rasmussen. Thats how he's justifying his biased numbers from Wisconsin.

The Romney name remains popular in Michigan due to a Governor from the 1960s -- before the state became an economic disaster. Mitt Romney could make Michigan a single-digit win for President Obama. But that said, Michigan has an unusually-high number of African-Americans for a Northern state, only Maryland and perhaps Virginia (if you now consider Virginia a Northern state) having higher proportions of black people.   

maybe if they are using 2010 turnout/demographics for the LV model, but otherwise dont buy it. I really wish people who release LV numbers also revealed their RV number so we can see the voodoo that they do.

If there is any state that Obama can claim to have done good work in, it would be MI. It had 15% unemployment on inauguration day and it has since dropped to 10.5%. Still ahead of national avg, but I think it is the biggest drop of any state. Obama pushed for the car company bailout, which now looks like it worked.

I dunno, maybe Romney has some big resevoir of support due to his ties to the state, but I doubt this poll

Barack Obama won Michigan in 2008 by a margin of 16.45%. That was 9.19% more Democratic than on average to the rest of the country.

If any Republican were to win Michigan in 2012, the White House would flip.

After the Republicans first competed in 1856, Michigan voted for the party right thought to 1928 Herbert Hoover. Every Republican elected from 1860 Abraham Lincoln to 1956 Dwight Eisenhower had Mich. in his column (same with Pennsylvania and Minnesota, to name two others).

I look at this and have a good laugh; Democrats will be carrying Michigan for decades!

I think his numbers in Michigan were inflated (as in Wisconsin, Illinois, and California for different reasons) because of the economic collapse and McCain's high-profile and fumbled pull out of the state late in the season... but that it's still going to be a difficult state for Republicans to win. Unemployment is high, but goodness, they know it didn't start in 2008 and Obama saved GM and made the best go of saving Chrysler anyone can do.

I guess a lot of Republicans thought the same thing about Virginia prior to november 2008.

"Longtime Republican state, haven't voted for a Democrat since LBJ in 1964. Sure thing."

     Or Vermont in 1992, which had only voted Democratic once in 168 years before that. If you look at it again in 2008, you see that it voted for Obama by more than 2-to-1. That state has changed its political allegiances quite a lot in a relatively short timeframe.

     Sometimes a state will trend dramatically for purely internal reasons. While Michigan will likely be a lean Democratic state for decades provided no major changes occur in the parties, it's silly to assume that that must be the case. Michigan is actually a rather likely candidate for trending significantly, seeing as how its historic automobile industry is proving increasingly insufficient to support the state's economy.

     Also, welcome to the forum.

This screams outlier. Romney carries MI if the national climate is so bad he's also carrying WA, OR and NJ, plus competetive in CA and CT.

Look at this site's past presidential election maps and notice the margins in, say, Michigan during the 1860-1956 period when Mich. supported all prevailing Republicans. Plenty of inflated margins. Especially with 1904 Teddy Roosevelt.

The auto industry has been doing so badly in Michigan that agriculture will soon be the #1 industry.

Didn't Romney pen the op/ed suggesting that the Detroit auto industry should be allowed to die?

That would probably be a kiss of death for his campaign in Michigan. Surely, Mike Huckabee would use it if he needed it. 

Actually no, he called for what basically ended up happening in the end with both going into a "managed bankruptcy" only minus the billions of dollars in taxpayer money that delayed it from December to June and the special deal the UAW got.

Page 118 "No Apology" by Mitt Romney,


He goes on to say that if encouraging reports so far are accurate, the company will have a second chance.

Hardly "drop dead, Detroit" by any means. ::)

Actually, Michigan would flip before OR and way before WA or NJ. Bush didn't lose Michigan by that much in 2004 and Republicans aren't poorly organized there. The state is also changing due to population issues. That will have an effect on its political leanings. Detroit is shrinking relative to the state as a whole.

John Kerry won Michigan by only 3.4%.