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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections => Topic started by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 14, 2011, 02:36:07 pm



Title: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 14, 2011, 02:36:07 pm
Looks like we're up for more recalls in 2012.

2011 recall information

These districts are having recall elections:

District 2 (Robert Cowles - R) - 57-42 Bush, 52-46 Obama, 58-42 Prosser
opponent: ex-Brown County Executive Nancy Nusbaum (D)

Result: 60-40 Cowles.

District 8 (Alberta Darling - R) - 53-46 Bush, 51-47 Obama, 59-41 Prosser
opponent: State Rep. Sandy Pasch (D)

Result: 54-46 Darling.

District 10 (Sheila Harsdorf - R) - 51-48 Bush, 50-48 Obama, 51-49 Kloppenburg
opponent: laid-off teacher Shelly Moore (D)

Result: 58-42 Harsdorf.

District 12 (Jim Holperin - D) - 53-46 Bush, 53-46 Obama, 55-45 Prosser
opponent: recall organizer Kim Simac (R)

Result: 55-45 Holperin.

District 14 (Luther Olsen - R) - 56-43 Bush, 52-47 Obama, 55-45 Prosser
opponent: State Rep. Fred Clark (D)

Result: 52-48 Olsen.

District 18 (Randy Hopper - R) - 57-42 Bush, 51-47 Obama, 53-47 Prosser
opponent: Oshkosh Deputy Mayor / '08 candidate Jessica King (D)

Result: 51-49 King -- recalled.

District 22 (Robert Wirch - D) - 51-48 Kerry, 57-41 Obama, 51-49 Kloppenburg
opponent: attorney Jonathan Steitz (R)

Result: 58-42 Wirch.

District 30 (Dave Hansen - D) - 52-47 Bush, 56-42 Obama, 52-48 Prosser
opponent: recall organizer David VanderLeest (R)

Result: 66-34 Hansen.

District 32 (Dan Kapanke - R) - 53-46 Kerry, 61-38 Obama, 58-42 Kloppenburg
opponent: State Rep. Jennifer Shilling (D)

Result: 55-45 Shilling - recalled.

Primary elections for the six Republican recalls were held on July 12 (all the fake Democrats lost), with a general on August 9.

Primary elections for Holperin and Wirch Democratic recalls were held on July 19, with a general on August 16. The general for Hansen was on July 19.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 14, 2011, 09:16:53 pm
Here are the results of the Kos/PPP polls:

Democrat 55
Dan Kapanke 41

Democrat 49
Randy Hopper 44

Democrat 49
Luther Olsen 47

Rob Cowles 45
Democrat 43

Sheila Harsdorf 48
Democrat 44

Alberta Darling 52
Democrat 44

Mary Lazich 56
Democrat 34

Glenn Grothman 60
Democrat 32


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on March 15, 2011, 02:46:22 am
Time to burn in political hell Kapanke.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 15, 2011, 05:51:19 am
Two or three seats turning Democratic seemed about right from the beginning.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 15, 2011, 07:47:11 am
I'd be wary of anything other than a clear lead for "generic Democrat". Kapanke does look doomed, and Hopper is in quite a bit of trouble as well. Beyond that I wouldn't count any of them as being in the bank for the Democrats.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 15, 2011, 08:56:02 am
I'd be pretty shocked if Hopper holds on: http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/03/13/wi-repub-lives-outside-district-with-mistress-says-wife/


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 15, 2011, 11:01:00 am
I'd be pretty shocked if Hopper holds on: http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/03/13/wi-repub-lives-outside-district-with-mistress-says-wife/

Family values!


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on March 15, 2011, 11:04:09 am
The best part:

Quote
Blogging Blue also reports that Mrs. Hopper intends to sign the recall petition against her husband. The petition has already been signed by the family's maid.

LOL.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 18, 2011, 06:59:23 am
Senator Hopper's mistress got a job with the state of Wisconsin last month. Coincidence? (http://addins.wkow.com/blogs/scoop/2011/03/hopper-denies-role-in-state-employees-hire)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Brittain33 on March 18, 2011, 09:00:43 am
Senator Hopper's mistress got a job with the state of Wisconsin last month. Coincidence? (http://addins.wkow.com/blogs/scoop/2011/03/hopper-denies-role-in-state-employees-hire)

And if not for the union busting bill, he might have gotten away with it through 2012.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on March 20, 2011, 05:13:51 am
Senator Hopper's mistress got a job with the state of Wisconsin last month. Coincidence? (http://addins.wkow.com/blogs/scoop/2011/03/hopper-denies-role-in-state-employees-hire)

so she's possibly a member of a public sector union? ;D


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 25, 2011, 09:55:41 pm
Someone posted a tweet on SSP saying that they have enough signatures to recall Randy Hopper now.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 01, 2011, 06:41:41 am
Dems are saying they have the signatures to recall Kapanke as well. (http://lacrossetribune.com/news/local/article_d5240e94-5c0c-11e0-b582-001cc4c002e0.html?mode=story)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 04, 2011, 03:38:36 pm
Kapanke recall signatures filed. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/wisconsin_recall_drive_already_making_history/2011/03/03/AFupVZcC_blog.html?wprss=plum-line) They got 22,561 in 29 days (they have 60), while they needed 15,588.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on April 04, 2011, 03:55:21 pm
And Secretary of State is a Democrat thankfully.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TexasGurl on April 04, 2011, 04:43:09 pm
Darling is next.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 07, 2011, 01:31:34 pm
Actually, Hopper's petitions are the second to be filed. (http://www.fdlreporter.com/article/20110407/FON0101/304070048/Hopper-recall-moves-forward-rallies-planned-today?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 09, 2011, 01:34:17 pm
Dan Kapanke has an opponent, State Rep. Jennifer Shilling. (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/119533054.html)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on April 09, 2011, 02:29:45 pm
So how does this work on the ballot? Is there just a new election that the incumbent can run in? A new election that is valid only if a simultaneous recall question is approved?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Wiz in Wis on April 09, 2011, 02:36:00 pm
Darling is next.

I have to agree. The open house at the Recall Darling Headquarters last night had well over 150 people there. The place was shoulder to shoulder packed.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Wiz in Wis on April 09, 2011, 02:37:54 pm
So how does this work on the ballot? Is there just a new election that the incumbent can run in? A new election that is valid only if a simultaneous recall question is approved?

In Wisconsin, once the petitions are certified, the recall has occurred. The subsequent election is like any other general election, unless more than one member of the out-party decides to run, then there is a primary and 8 weeks later, a general election.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on April 09, 2011, 08:50:36 pm
So how does this work on the ballot? Is there just a new election that the incumbent can run in? A new election that is valid only if a simultaneous recall question is approved?

In Wisconsin, once the petitions are certified, the recall has occurred. The subsequent election is like any other general election, unless more than one member of the out-party decides to run, then there is a primary and 8 weeks later, a general election.

So in theory the "recalled" official could decide to not even run?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Dgov on April 09, 2011, 09:44:44 pm
So how does this work on the ballot? Is there just a new election that the incumbent can run in? A new election that is valid only if a simultaneous recall question is approved?

In Wisconsin, once the petitions are certified, the recall has occurred. The subsequent election is like any other general election, unless more than one member of the out-party decides to run, then there is a primary and 8 weeks later, a general election.

So in theory the "recalled" official could decide to not even run?

isn't that how it is will all recall elections?  Gray Davis wasn't even on the ballot in his recall (though that was because he was supporting a "no" vote on the actual recall provision)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Vice President PiT on April 09, 2011, 10:22:24 pm
So how does this work on the ballot? Is there just a new election that the incumbent can run in? A new election that is valid only if a simultaneous recall question is approved?

In Wisconsin, once the petitions are certified, the recall has occurred. The subsequent election is like any other general election, unless more than one member of the out-party decides to run, then there is a primary and 8 weeks later, a general election.

So in theory the "recalled" official could decide to not even run?

isn't that how it is will all recall elections?  Gray Davis wasn't even on the ballot in his recall (though that was because he was supporting a "no" vote on the actual recall provision)

     Cruz Bustamante ran on the recall ballot while calling on people to vote against the recall, though. If Gray Davis were allowed to run, I imagine that he would have done so.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on April 10, 2011, 07:35:17 pm
I'm amazed Kapanke ever got elected from La Crosse in the first place. He's a lockstep far righter, not moderate at all, and apparently made some type of comment comparing Walker to Jesus.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 12, 2011, 01:19:07 pm
Randy Hopper's 2008 opponent is running in the recall election. (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/119700334.html) He only won by 263 votes last time, but of course, Obama was a big lift for the Democratic ticket in Wisconsin.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 13, 2011, 08:24:51 am
Precinct data for the Supreme Court election is out (except for Milwaukee, Sauk, and one other county), and I've been trying to figure out the results by Senate district for the recall eligible Senators. Here's what I've gotten so far:

District 2 (Robert Cowles - R) - 57.9% Prosser
District 4 (Lena Taylor - D) - 73.4% Kloppenburg
District 6 (Spencer Coggs - D) - 77.5% Kloppenburg
District 8 (Alberta Darling - R) - 58.8% Prosser
District 10 (Sheila Harsdorf - R) - 50.5% Prosser
District 12 (Jim Holperin - D) - 55.4% Prosser
District 14 (Luther Olsen - R) - 54.7% Prosser
District 16 (Mark Miller - D) - 69.8% Kloppenburg
District 18 (Randy Hopper - R) - 52.8% Prosser
District 20 (Glenn Grothman - R) - 74.3% Prosser
District 22 (Robert Wirch - D) - 51.2% Kloppenburg
District 24 (Julie Lassa - D) - 54.9% Kloppenburg
District 26 (Fred Risser - D) - 82.4% Kloppenburg
District 28 (Mary Lazich - R) - 69.6% Prosser
District 30 (Dave Hansen - D) - 50.01% Kloppenburg (no kidding, a 7-vote margin)
District 32 (Dan Kapanke - R) - 57.7% Kloppenburg

I make no claim as to the veracity of these numbers, because the ward reporting is kind of screwy for a lot of the larger towns in the state.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: jimrtex on April 13, 2011, 11:16:14 pm
So how does this work on the ballot? Is there just a new election that the incumbent can run in? A new election that is valid only if a simultaneous recall question is approved?
There is no recall question.  There is just a new election in which the incumbent is automatically included unless he resigns.  There can also be a primary, so it can be strung out into the summer.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 15, 2011, 04:08:44 pm
They finally got Milwaukee up, so I finished the results from the Supreme Court race.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: cinyc on April 15, 2011, 04:21:30 pm
They finally got Milwaukee up, so I finished the results from the Supreme Court race.

What's the final margin?  Prosser by about 7,300?  Is it within 0.5%?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 15, 2011, 04:38:29 pm
Prosser - 752,323
Kloppenburg - 745,007
Scattering - 1,550

7,316 vote margin. Just under 0.5%.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: cinyc on April 15, 2011, 04:40:41 pm
Prosser - 752,323
Kloppenburg - 745,007
Scattering - 1,550

7,316 vote margin. Just under 0.5%.


Thanks.  There will be a free recount if Kloppenburg requests one, then.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: cinyc on April 15, 2011, 06:58:25 pm
Kapanke is challenging the vailidity of the recall petition (http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/119951909.html) against him.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Dgov on April 15, 2011, 08:29:02 pm
Prosser - 752,323
Kloppenburg - 745,007
Scattering - 1,550

7,316 vote margin. Just under 0.5%.


Thanks.  There will be a free recount if Kloppenburg requests one, then.

Its not like it would matter all that much.  Recounts in WI only cost like $20,000 i think.
Though it would probably make her look like a sore loser, so i don't know.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: cinyc on April 16, 2011, 01:07:39 pm
Prosser - 752,323
Kloppenburg - 745,007
Scattering - 1,550

7,316 vote margin. Just under 0.5%.


Thanks.  There will be a free recount if Kloppenburg requests one, then.

Its not like it would matter all that much.  Recounts in WI only cost like $20,000 i think.
Though it would probably make her look like a sore loser, so i don't know.

I'd ask for a recount just to make sure that there was nothing fishy about the results, particularly in Waukesha or Dane counties.  It's close enough and Kloppenburg is well within her rights to ask for one.  Doing so doesn't have to make you look like a sore loser if you do it quietly without demonizing the opposition.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 18, 2011, 10:13:43 am
Petitions to recall Olson to be filed today. (http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/article_7573e862-6971-11e0-9a86-001cc4c002e0.html) 14,733 signatures required, 23,000 reportedly to be filed.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 18, 2011, 11:09:50 am
I made a few mistakes in my district calculations, mostly thanks to the screwed-up formatting of the results posted by the GAB:

The 10th actually went for Kloppenburg with 51.3%, not Prosser with 50.5%.
The 16th went for Kloppenburg with 66.7%, not 69.8%.
The 30th went for Prosser with 52.2%, not Kloppenburg by a hair.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on April 18, 2011, 12:40:53 pm
Why isn't Harsdorf getting more attention? Seems like a ripe target.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on April 18, 2011, 01:05:47 pm
Appears she is: http://www.newrichmond-news.com/event/article/id/42647/group/News/publisher_ID/9/

Oh hey this is the district just over the Minnesota border. I can actually help out!


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Smash255 on April 18, 2011, 08:16:01 pm
Harsdorf petition will be filed tomorrow

http://www.twincities.com/ci_17875694?nclick_check=1


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 20, 2011, 12:07:46 pm
Jim Holperin is the first Democrat to face a recall. (http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=234040)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Dgov on April 20, 2011, 06:21:57 pm
Jim Holperin is the first Democrat to face a recall. (http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=234040)

Is he the one from the ~55% Walker district?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 20, 2011, 06:22:46 pm
Alberta Darling makes five Republicans facing recalls. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/dems-to-file-huge-amount-of-signatures-to-recall-a-fifth-wisconsin-goper/2011/03/03/AFzRZ0DE_blog.html)

Jim Holperin is the first Democrat to face a recall. (http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=234040)

Is he the one from the ~55% Walker district?

Probably. It went about 55% for Prosser.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on April 20, 2011, 08:03:07 pm
Actually, it won't be just one, but three Dems: Holperin, Hansen and Wirch:

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/120293779.html

So, we have 4 Republicans and 3 Democrats already w/ enough signatures. Assuming the Dems will also get enough signatures on Darling (seems to be a reasonable assumption at this point, given the nature of her district and given that Dems still have till May 5th to gather signatures), it seems that 8 state senators out of 16 eligible for recall will actually have to fight an early election (5 Reps, 3 Dems). Does it look like that will be it?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Brittain33 on April 21, 2011, 12:19:12 pm
Signature-gatherers in one recall race got signatures by bribing people with drinks--"shots for signatures."

I don't care so much about the fraud angle, it's nearly impossible to stamp this kind of thing out. But perhaps it indicates that the petitions may not demonstrate the strength in the voting booth that supporters hope.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/21/wisconsin-recall-shots_n_851459.html


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TexasGurl on April 21, 2011, 06:45:07 pm
Funny none of the anti dem petitions have been filed yet but they say they have the needed signatures.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 21, 2011, 06:50:54 pm
Funny none of the anti dem petitions have been filed yet but they say they have the needed signatures.

Uh, actually they filed three today. Hansen, Holperin, and Wirch. Darling also got filed today.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 22, 2011, 06:58:56 am
Luther Olson has an opponent, State Rep. Fred Clark. (http://www.wisdems.org/news/press/view/2011-04-rep-fred-clark-announces-candidacy-for-state-senate)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 24, 2011, 12:42:52 pm
This week is the deadline for some of the outstanding recall petitions against Democratic Senators. Lena Taylor and Fred Risser on Monday, Spencer Coggs and Mark Miller (note that he has two active, one that's not due until May 4) on Tuesday. My guess is none of them succeed, since they're all in safe districts, and the Republicans haven't had as much success getting these petitions done as the Democrats have.

The three remaining Republican petitions (Robert Cowles, Glenn Grothman, and Mary Lazich) are due May 2. I haven't heard anything about these, but since they have another week to finish them, I'm guessing at least one will be filed.

There's also one Democratic petition (Julie Lassa) which isn't due until May 16. I'd give it a 50/50 shot of happening.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on April 24, 2011, 01:35:19 pm
LOL, Risser. Doesn't he represent the bulk of Madison? Why even bother with him?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 25, 2011, 08:47:43 pm
Taylor and Risser recall efforts have failed (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/120666519.html), and the group attempting to recall Coggs says they're going to miss the deadline as well. (http://www.wbay.com/story/14509617/2011/04/25/group-says-it-will-miss-deadline-to-recall-senator-spencer-coggs) The second link also says the Robert Cowles recall petitions will be filed this week. No word on Mark Miller Petition I.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Napoleon on April 25, 2011, 09:17:09 pm
Luther Olson has an opponent, State Rep. Fred Clark. (http://www.wisdems.org/news/press/view/2011-04-rep-fred-clark-announces-candidacy-for-state-senate)

I'm going to call this a toss up for now.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Brittain33 on April 26, 2011, 11:57:55 am
Cowles becomes #6 on Thursday. I'll save you the trouble of going back two screens, his district went heavily but not Milwaukee-suburb-heavily for Prosser, so he's not likely to lose.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/04/wis-dems-to-file-recall-petitions-against-sixth-goper.php?ref=fpi


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 26, 2011, 05:51:19 pm
Yep, Coggs and Miller recalls failed. (http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/article_f8ae1a28-7055-11e0-8fa1-001cc4c002e0.html) As I said, there's another committee trying to recall Miller, but I don't see how that would end up any differently.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on April 27, 2011, 12:27:41 am
Wisconsin Senate seats are drawn really badly, and not in a gerrymander way. Green Bay is split really odd for seemingly no reason. The main problem is perhaps that they are too big, only Madison and Milwaukee are large enough to take up over an entire Senate district so in many places you have to kind of awkwardly attach cities to rural areas. Another is that all are really just piecing together of three State House seats, but the ones pieced together could be more logical, why Green Bay is split between three Senate districts really goes without logic.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 28, 2011, 03:53:27 pm
Cowles petitions filed. (http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/04/28/6550717-total-recall-in-wisconsin) The remaining two Republicans (Grothman and Lazich) are probably not going to get recalled. The only Dem left is Julie Lassa.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 01, 2011, 02:32:28 pm
Buried in this article (http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/121036318.html) is a bit of information about when the recalls will take place:

Quote
The accountability board got permission Friday from a judge to delay its decision on certifying elections in eight of the races until May 31 - which could mean the first elections would come July 12. But even if the board rules in favor of the elections, court challenges by the senators could delay them further.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Nhoj on May 01, 2011, 02:34:35 pm
Buried in this article (http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/121036318.html) is a bit of information about when the recalls will take place:

Quote
The accountability board got permission Friday from a judge to delay its decision on certifying elections in eight of the races until May 31 - which could mean the first elections would come July 12. But even if the board rules in favor of the elections, court challenges by the senators could delay them further.
You know for the dems holding the recalls in July is a terrible idea.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 02, 2011, 04:03:59 pm
It looks like State Rep. Sandy Pasch is going to run against Darling.

Grothman and Lazich recall efforts failed. (http://wtaq.com/news/articles/2011/may/02/recall-efforts-against-grothman-lazich-fall-short/)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 04, 2011, 07:43:24 am
Laid-off teacher Shelly Moore is running against Harsdorf. (http://hudson-wi.patch.com/articles/democrats-tap-teacher-shelly-moore-to-run-against-sheila-harsdorf-in-wisconsin-senate-recall-election) Sounds like kind of a weak recruit in comparison to the succession of state representatives that have been announcing lately.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Brittain33 on May 04, 2011, 08:22:39 am
Laid-off teacher Shelly Moore is running against Harsdorf. (http://hudson-wi.patch.com/articles/democrats-tap-teacher-shelly-moore-to-run-against-sheila-harsdorf-in-wisconsin-senate-recall-election) Sounds like kind of a weak recruit in comparison to the succession of state representatives that have been announcing lately.

Well, if she teaches drama, she should be good on the stump.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: krazen1211 on May 04, 2011, 09:10:17 am
Prosser I believe lost that district, so losing it is no surprise. Sucks, but if Prosser results are indicative most GOPers will be fine.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 04, 2011, 07:52:33 pm
Dem targets finally get opponents: Recall petition organizer Kim Simac (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/121279929.html) is running against Holperin, while Brown County Board Vice Chair Mary Scray (http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=235419) is running against Hansen.

I've also updated and reorganized the OP.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Badger on May 05, 2011, 11:27:19 am
Laid-off teacher Shelly Moore is running against Harsdorf. (http://hudson-wi.patch.com/articles/democrats-tap-teacher-shelly-moore-to-run-against-sheila-harsdorf-in-wisconsin-senate-recall-election) Sounds like kind of a weak recruit in comparison to the succession of state representatives that have been announcing lately.

As one of only two R's facing recall who represent a Kloppenburg district, such a third tier candidate seems like a real wasted opportunity.

EDIT: Plus she was polling only 48-44 against "unnamed Democrat" (caveats of "generic party candidates" running stronger in polls than actual identified people duely noted, but still....), and assuming Kapanke and Hopper are in serious trouble, this vulnerable district would swing control of the Senate. The WI Dems have to do a better job of candidate recruitment here.

EDIT 2: Her comments speaking at a recent pro-union rally:

"We bleed Packer green and Brewer blue and Badger red. We believe that the three major food groups are beer, cheese and bratwurst. And we breathe union," Moore said.

Okay, maybe she's got potential appeal after all. ;D


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TexasGurl on May 08, 2011, 05:29:47 pm
It would be a mistake to underestimate Moore.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on May 08, 2011, 07:11:52 pm
I want to do some work for Moore but the "We bleed Packer green" comment...ugh.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 09, 2011, 08:31:44 am
Robert Wirch has an opponent, the vice chair of the Kenosha County Board. (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/121447438.html) Robert Cowles is the only Senator facing recall who doesn't have an opponent yet.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 10, 2011, 12:06:13 pm
Another candidate to run against Hansen, State Rep. John Nygren. (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/121567969.html)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 11, 2011, 03:08:16 pm
Former Brown County supervisor Rich Langan is running against Cowles, which gives all the recalled Senators opponents.  (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/121645854.html)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 16, 2011, 02:38:11 pm
Shortest campaign ever: Langan has dropped out and it looks like Democrats are instead running former Brown County Executive Nancy Nusbaum. (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/121922048.html)

Also, the final outstanding recall effort, against Julie Lassa, failed. (http://wsau.com/news/articles/2011/may/16/lassa-recall-effort-fails/)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TexasGurl on May 16, 2011, 03:32:58 pm
Not a big surprise about Lassa.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 20, 2011, 07:38:11 pm
Two more opponents to Dem Senators (http://www.postcrescent.com/article/20110519/APC0101/105190493): an attorney is running against Wirch, while the chair of the Lincoln County Board is running against Holperin. That means there are going to be primaries on the Republican side for all three Democratic seats.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Smash255 on May 20, 2011, 08:04:35 pm
Two more opponents to Dem Senators (http://www.postcrescent.com/article/20110519/APC0101/105190493): an attorney is running against Wirch, while the chair of the Lincoln County Board is running against Holperin. That means there are going to be primaries on the Republican side for all three Democratic seats.

Isn't the Primary more along the lines of a quasi runoff??  Top two vote getters on each side advance to another election four weeks later unless one of them cracks 50% the first time?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 20, 2011, 08:28:42 pm
No, it's just like a regular election.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kevinstat on May 22, 2011, 10:06:20 am
Could (or could have, if the deadline for new candidates has passed) members of the same party as the recalled Senator (I know technically the Senators are already deemed to be recalled when the recall election is forced) run in the recall election as members of that party and thus force the recalled Senator to face a primary which, if he or she lost, would prevent him or her from even advancing to the general election which would be effectively like a "normal" special (general) election to fill a vacancy, except that the defeated incumbent would presumably remain in office until the results of that general "recall" election had been certified?

In other words, if Kenosha County Board vice chair Fred Ekornaas, the former Kenosha County sheriff who was twice elected to that post as a Democrat and is now running a Republican primary for the right to take on Bob Wirch, had wanted to challenge Wirch in a Democratic primary, could he have?  (I'm sure he would have gone down in flames.  Then again, as a fairly recent Democrat I gather, he might go down in flames in the Republican primary against Jonathan Steitz.)  Otherwise, couldn't Kapanke, Hopper, Harsdorf et all have staved off a Democratic challenge (or forced any would-be Democratic challengers to run as Republicans), or Hoperlin, Hansen and Wirch have staved off a Republican challenge (or forced any would-be Republican challengers) by switching parties?  Could RINOs and DINOs in Wisconsin (there don't seem to be any in the Senate, at least) theoretically be recalled and challenged in the resulting recall election only by (a) member(s) of that Senator's party?  Would the result be a single election that, as a an intra-party or "primary" election, only voters enrolled in the Senator's party could vote in?  (Or does Wisconsin have open primaries?)  Or would the winner of that primary advance to a general election where voters would have the opportunity to write-in someone else (perhaps the loser of that primary, including perhaps a Senator who was just defeated in a recall primary?  It wouldn't make sense to allow all voters to vote in a recall election between candidates of the same party unless Wisconsin has open primaries.

I'll appreciate whatever answers to these questions folks here could provide.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kevinstat on May 22, 2011, 10:20:39 am
Also, can Independent candidates run in recall elections.  I would assume they could (perhaps with a higher petition requirement as they don't have to face a possible primary and could get signatures from any registered voter in the district), and that they would advance automatically to the general election.  Has there been any talk (or was there at some point in this "Recall-a-palooza" serious speculation about an Independent candidate running for any of these seats.  Wisconsin does not have runoff elections (following either the primary or general election) for state and federal offices, does it?  And there wouldn't be a majority requirement in a primary or general recall election either, right?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 22, 2011, 11:27:52 am
Yes to both of your questions. It's basically treated just like a special election. It's not like the California recall where there was a yes/no question then an open ballot. However, I don't think there have been any independents talking about running.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 23, 2011, 01:53:21 pm
Election set for Hopper, Kapanke, and Olson: July 12. (http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/122451268.html) Apparently this election becomes a primary if there's more than one opposing candidate, then the general would be on August 9. Confusing.

Another Republican joins the clown car in Hansen's district, the recall organizer. (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/122455359.html) That makes three Republicans running there.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on May 26, 2011, 12:33:36 am
In theory couldn't the Republicans get joke candidates to run in the primary in their incumbents' seats to delay the election, and allow them to shove through redistricting before possibly losing the Senate? Then again it might not be late enough, isn't the data finalized in September that needs to be done before redistricting?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 26, 2011, 07:14:25 am
Redistricting is not supposed to be possible until the fall, though the Republicans have been trying to figure out a way to get around it.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 26, 2011, 09:49:25 am
Mary Scray drops out of the Hansen recall election. (http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/article/20110526/GPG0101/110526030/1207/gpg0101/Mary-Scray-withdraws-from-recall-election-against-State-Sen-Dave-Hansen)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 01, 2011, 06:46:55 am
Recalls against Cowles, Darling, and Harsdorf approved (http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/122863804.html), but it's vague as to when the elections will be.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Wiz in Wis on June 01, 2011, 04:21:10 pm
Given that it appears likely that the GAB will push back the elections by a week, who does that help? I could see the GOP gaining some strength from being further removed from this February's brewhaha, but at the same time, some of the lesser known Dem challengers could benefit from another week of campaigning.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on June 01, 2011, 05:51:59 pm
According to Dem internals, Hopper is in even worse shape than Kapanke.

http://wirecall.blogspot.com/2011/05/democrats-sure-in-18th.html (http://wirecall.blogspot.com/2011/05/democrats-sure-in-18th.html)

The SSDC is so sure about this that they've not yet committed full resources to this race. Originally, the plan was to have a full staff of 8 set up in Fond du Lac and Oshkosh, but so far only 3 have been committed.

I'm also told that resources have been shifted to the Luther Olsen recall, in a rural district that stretches from Baraboo all the way up to the northern part of the area just west of Lake Winnebago. The party sees that they have a seriously strong candidate in Fred Clark, a relative newcomer to state politics who was elected in 2008 and has a great rapport with his district, strong enough that he was able to survive a strong challenge as a first-term incumbent in the wave that came last fall.

The 4 GOP Senators that the Dems see as the best opportunities for recalls are, in order: Hopper, Kapanke, Darling, and Olsen. Personally, I think they have a good chance at Sheila Harsdorf as well.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Wiz in Wis on June 01, 2011, 06:10:34 pm
According to Dem internals, Hopper is in even worse shape than Kapanke.

http://wirecall.blogspot.com/2011/05/democrats-sure-in-18th.html (http://wirecall.blogspot.com/2011/05/democrats-sure-in-18th.html)

The SSDC is so sure about this that they've not yet committed full resources to this race. Originally, the plan was to have a full staff of 8 set up in Fond du Lac and Oshkosh, but so far only 3 have been committed.

I'm also told that resources have been shifted to the Luther Olsen recall, in a rural district that stretches from Baraboo all the way up to the northern part of the area just west of Lake Winnebago. The party sees that they have a seriously strong candidate in Fred Clark, a relative newcomer to state politics who was elected in 2008 and has a great rapport with his district, strong enough that he was able to survive a strong challenge as a first-term incumbent in the wave that came last fall.

The 4 GOP Senators that the Dems see as the best opportunities for recalls are, in order: Hopper, Kapanke, Darling, and Olsen. Personally, I think they have a good chance at Sheila Harsdorf as well.

I would switch Olsen and Darling, Alberta has some wickedly conservative parts to her district that Olsen doesn't. I also think that Harsdorf and Cowles are facing pretty strong challengers who should be well funded, so upsets here are not unlikely.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 02, 2011, 08:51:21 am
Can't say I'm surprised at this, it's an obvious idea. (http://lacrossetribune.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/article_0584d66e-8cae-11e0-bb11-001cc4c03286.html)

Quote
La Crosse County Republicans discussed running a spoiler candidate against Democrat Jennifer Shilling in an effort to delay the recall election of Sen. Dan Kapanke, according to a secret recording of the party's general membership meeting last week.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Wiz in Wis on June 02, 2011, 11:58:51 am
Can't say I'm surprised at this, it's an obvious idea. (http://lacrossetribune.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/article_0584d66e-8cae-11e0-bb11-001cc4c03286.html)

Quote
La Crosse County Republicans discussed running a spoiler candidate against Democrat Jennifer Shilling in an effort to delay the recall election of Sen. Dan Kapanke, according to a secret recording of the party's general membership meeting last week.

What's funny is that there are really no other top tier democrats in that Senate district, Shilling is really about it (or was until Doyle won the special election)... Who would they have drafted that could even get the signatures to get on the ballot?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Badger on June 03, 2011, 12:46:50 pm
Can't say I'm surprised at this, it's an obvious idea. (http://lacrossetribune.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/article_0584d66e-8cae-11e0-bb11-001cc4c03286.html)

Quote
La Crosse County Republicans discussed running a spoiler candidate against Democrat Jennifer Shilling in an effort to delay the recall election of Sen. Dan Kapanke, according to a secret recording of the party's general membership meeting last week.

What's funny is that there are really no other top tier democrats in that Senate district, Shilling is really about it (or was until Doyle won the special election)... Who would they have drafted that could even get the signatures to get on the ballot?

Fred the crazy right wing milkman, who is still a registered Democrat despite being in the John Birch Society.

Seriously, this isn't a game to get a formidable primary opponent to Schilling, but just to buy time by sticking someone---ANYone---on the ballot to force a primary.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Wiz in Wis on June 06, 2011, 12:44:48 am
Can't say I'm surprised at this, it's an obvious idea. (http://lacrossetribune.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/article_0584d66e-8cae-11e0-bb11-001cc4c03286.html)

Quote
La Crosse County Republicans discussed running a spoiler candidate against Democrat Jennifer Shilling in an effort to delay the recall election of Sen. Dan Kapanke, according to a secret recording of the party's general membership meeting last week.

What's funny is that there are really no other top tier democrats in that Senate district, Shilling is really about it (or was until Doyle won the special election)... Who would they have drafted that could even get the signatures to get on the ballot?

Fred the crazy right wing milkman, who is still a registered Democrat despite being in the John Birch Society.

Seriously, this isn't a game to get a formidable primary opponent to Schilling, but just to buy time by sticking someone---ANYone---on the ballot to force a primary.

True... but then, the scandal associated with a clearly bullsh*t primary would certainly backfire. I don't understand the strategy... then again, I don't understand most things Republicans do...


especially in Minneapolis airports.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Invisible Obama on June 06, 2011, 05:43:15 pm
I read that they want to buy more time to allow the GOP Senators to regain ground, but I don't think tricks will do anything but draw more ire.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/06/wis-gopers-seeking-fake-dem-candidates-to-disrupt-in-state-senate-recalls.php

Quote
In letters obtained by No Quarter, local Republican Party officials are encouraging their GOP colleagues to collect enough signatures to get a fake Democratic candidate on the ballot in each of two upcoming recall elections.

The spoiler Democrats, who are identified by name in the letters, would run in the Democratic primaries for the seats now held by Republican Sens. Randy Hopper of Fond du Lac and Luther Olsen of Ripon.

Both of the fake Democrats have a history of giving almost exclusively to major Republicans.

"We need to make sure Democrat challengers face primaries to allow our Republicans time to mount a campaign," Dan Feyen, chairman of the 6th Congressional District Republican Party, wrote in the letter to "fellow conservatives" on Friday.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 07, 2011, 07:44:30 am
Fake Democrat running in Harsdorf's district. (http://us1.campaign-archive2.com/?u=5fdce0a26f89c28febc13998d&id=07a2a510a8&e=a7a133ff6a) If they're going to do this, maybe they should be a little more subtle, i.e. not going with people who have run as a Republican before.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Wiz in Wis on June 07, 2011, 10:38:44 am
Fake Democrat running in Harsdorf's district. (http://us1.campaign-archive2.com/?u=5fdce0a26f89c28febc13998d&id=07a2a510a8&e=a7a133ff6a) If they're going to do this, maybe they should be a little more subtle, i.e. not going with people who have run as a Republican before.

What's more confusing is that the state GOP is all but acknowledging that they are running these fakes to screw with voters... I mean, the hubris of this group is mind-boggling.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on June 07, 2011, 10:48:01 am
Fake Democrat running in Harsdorf's district. (http://us1.campaign-archive2.com/?u=5fdce0a26f89c28febc13998d&id=07a2a510a8&e=a7a133ff6a) If they're going to do this, maybe they should be a little more subtle, i.e. not going with people who have run as a Republican before.

What's more confusing is that the state GOP is all but acknowledging that they are running these fakes to screw with voters... I mean, the hubris of this group is mind-boggling.

Is there any chance that these candidates will be denied ballot access because they are so obviously fake?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Wiz in Wis on June 07, 2011, 01:03:03 pm
Fake Democrat running in Harsdorf's district. (http://us1.campaign-archive2.com/?u=5fdce0a26f89c28febc13998d&id=07a2a510a8&e=a7a133ff6a) If they're going to do this, maybe they should be a little more subtle, i.e. not going with people who have run as a Republican before.

What's more confusing is that the state GOP is all but acknowledging that they are running these fakes to screw with voters... I mean, the hubris of this group is mind-boggling.

Is there any chance that these candidates will be denied ballot access because they are so obviously fake?

Wisconsin doesn't require party registration, so I imagine that once they get the requisite signatures, they are on the ballot. Of course, now being on the ballot would generate at least 2 weeks of bad GOP press, since the news would inevitably remind voters about the fake primary every time the fake candidate was mentioned.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Badger on June 08, 2011, 08:03:54 am
Sadly, I suspect voters will ignore such cheap shenanigans in the long run and the delay will in fact benefit GOP candidates so long as they themselves have no fingerprints whatsoever on the fake primary challengers. :(


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 08, 2011, 09:11:28 am
Here they go again; a former member of the La Crosse County Republican Party's executive committee is running as a Democrat in Kapanke's district. (http://lacrossetribune.com/news/local/article_b71cf9c8-918c-11e0-86ef-001cc4c002e0.html)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 08, 2011, 06:49:52 pm
Recalls of the three Democratic Senators are approved. (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/123499774.html) All the Republican seats are apparently going to be up on July 12, but the Democratic seats are going to be up a week after, on July 19.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Badger on June 08, 2011, 08:56:51 pm
Recalls of the three Democratic Senators are approved. (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/123499774.html) All the Republican seats are apparently going to be up on July 12, but the Democratic seats are going to be up a week after, on July 19.

WTF? ???


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Dan the Roman on June 08, 2011, 09:36:08 pm
Recalls of the three Democratic Senators are approved. (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/123499774.html) All the Republican seats are apparently going to be up on July 12, but the Democratic seats are going to be up a week after, on July 19.

WTF? ???

They were scared of appearing partisan by disqualifying only the Democratic petitions, despite their being evidence of clear fraud.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 09, 2011, 01:11:46 pm
The cavalcade of fake Democrats continues. (http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/article/20110608/GPG0101/110608048/Ex-GOP-lawmaker-run-Dem-against-Nusbaum-Cowles-recall-primary) A former Republican member of the assembly is running in Cowles' district.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on June 09, 2011, 02:19:19 pm
The arrogance of these guys is just astounding.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Smash255 on June 10, 2011, 01:41:48 pm
The cavalcade of fake Democrats continues. (http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/article/20110608/GPG0101/110608048/Ex-GOP-lawmaker-run-Dem-against-Nusbaum-Cowles-recall-primary) A former Republican member of the assembly is running in Cowles' district.

When do the petitions to get on the ballot need to be in by?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 10, 2011, 01:46:26 pm
No idea, there's no information about it on the GAB website.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Smash255 on June 10, 2011, 01:49:45 pm
No idea, there's no information about it on the GAB website.

I thought I initially read something about ten days after the recall elections were ordered, but when I was looking through the GAB site, couldn't find it.

edit.  The deadline to file against the six GOP candidates is on Tuesday June 14th

http://ballotnews.org/2011/06/10/multiple-candidates-preparing-for-wisconsin-recall-in-all-9-senate-districts/

Not sure how long it would take to validate, but due to the low number of signatures required (400) I would guess its just a matter of days.  The deadline to submit signatures to get on the ballot for the races against the Democratic Senators for recall is likely the following week.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Badger on June 10, 2011, 03:34:24 pm
Recalls of the three Democratic Senators are approved. (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/123499774.html) All the Republican seats are apparently going to be up on July 12, but the Democratic seats are going to be up a week after, on July 19.

WTF? ???

They were scared of appearing partisan by disqualifying only the Democratic petitions, despite their being evidence of clear fraud.

I meant why two separate election dates a week apart?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Smash255 on June 10, 2011, 03:41:37 pm
Recalls of the three Democratic Senators are approved. (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/123499774.html) All the Republican seats are apparently going to be up on July 12, but the Democratic seats are going to be up a week after, on July 19.

WTF? ???

They were scared of appearing partisan by disqualifying only the Democratic petitions, despite their being evidence of clear fraud.

I meant why two separate election dates a week apart?

The elections need to be held six weeks after certification, due to the amount of the recalls, the court cases, etc the court wasn't able to certify all of the elections together.  So they basically decided to certify the results on the six they had completed (against the GOP Senators) instead of continuing to put them on hold as they awaited the cases against the Dem Senators to be finished up.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 11, 2011, 10:33:09 am
For some reason, the group that organized the Republican recalls (http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/123667294.html) is thinking of running fake Republicans against the Republican incumbents. I have no idea why.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 11, 2011, 10:43:40 am
If they think they can get the fake Democrats to withdraw by threatening that, then they haven't fully understood the situation.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on June 11, 2011, 10:55:23 am
Better not to bother with that and just take the moral high ground, Wisconsin is a "good government" state, not like New Jersey or New Mexico.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 12, 2011, 06:57:45 am
Another fake Democrat, Gladys Huber (http://foxpoint.patch.com/articles/who-is-fake-democrat-in-recall-election) is running in Darling's district.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TexasGurl on June 12, 2011, 03:10:49 pm
Dems are running placeholder candidates in all of the elections so that all will be on the same day, Aug 9th.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kevinstat on June 12, 2011, 05:22:35 pm
Dems are running placeholder candidates in all of the elections so that all will be on the same day, Aug 9th.

Wouldn't that be the case anyway, though (for the seats now held by Republicans), assuming all of the fake Democrats get their petitions validated?

Are Democrats worried that some of the fake Democrats in the safest Republican seats with a recall election will withdraw so the Republicans can claim an early victory or two on July 19?  I don't think that would be that big a deal.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Wiz in Wis on June 13, 2011, 01:38:43 pm
Another fake Democrat, Gladys Huber (http://foxpoint.patch.com/articles/who-is-fake-democrat-in-recall-election) is running in Darling's district.

I don't know how Darling or the state GOP think this will help. I mean, is an extra few weeks worth the negative press and appearance of dirty politics?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kevinstat on June 13, 2011, 06:01:01 pm
Quote from: JSOnline
Democrats to force primaries
Party to run 2 candidates in 6 GOP recalls - 1 legitimate, 1 'placeholder'
By Doris Hajewski of the Journal Sentinel

The state Democratic Party said Saturday that it would not run fake GOP candidates in the state Senate recall elections this summer.
...
[But] Michael Tate, chairman of the state Democratic Party, ... said his party intends to force primaries in the six recalls of Republicans by running two Democrats in each of them - one legitimate and the other a "placeholder" who will not actively campaign.
...
[State Democratic Party press secretary Gillian] Morris said her party fears that Republicans before the filing deadline on Tuesday could decide not to place fake Republicans in certain races. That would result in some of those recall elections being decided in July and others in August.

Morris said the Democrats want all of the general elections for those seats in August, to put all of the races on equal footing in terms of campaigning and fundraising.

She couldn't say on Saturday how many extra candidates the party has lined up. Morris said Democrats weren't concerned about splitting the primary vote between two candidates in their own party. She said the "placeholder" candidates wouldn't campaign.
...

Full article (http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/123688454.html)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kevinstat on June 13, 2011, 06:04:49 pm
While the above article didn't express a Democratic concern about Republicans letting their safest Senators face the music first and get some momentum going for their party, I can read between the lines.

I don't see why they would want to run placeholders in the Kapanke and Hopper seats though.  An early general election in either of those seats would be a gift.  Perhaps they're sure fake Democrats will get on the ballot in those races and the "consistency" angle plays better.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: cinyc on June 15, 2011, 02:15:14 am
Wisconsin Democratic recall opponent says he wants to "smack around" a women who will not vote for him:

Clark dials up a mess (http://www.wiscnews.com/baraboonewsrepublic/news/article_d59a09d8-963a-11e0-8577-001cc4c002e0.html)
Tim Damos/Baraboo News Republic
Tuesday, June 14, 2011 3:30 am
Quote from: Baraboo News Republic
A rolling tape on an answering machine caught an unsuspecting Rep. Fred Clark, D-Baraboo, saying he wanted to "smack around" a woman from his district after she hung up on him.

Clark, who is challenging Sen. Luther Olsen, R-Ripon, in a recall election, was making campaign calls last week when he reached the Baraboo home of Sue and John Stapelman.

The answering machine took the call at first, but Sue Stapelman then picked up. The machine's tape kept recording.

After Clark introduced himself, he told Sue Stapelman that he was challenging Olsen in the upcoming recall election.

Stapelman responded: "Yeah, and isn't that a crime."

She then hung up on Clark, but her answering machine kept the line open and continued recording.

Clark apparently did not know he was being recorded when, after a short pause, he said to his campaign staffer: "OK. I feel like calling her back and smackin' her around."

--Snip--


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on June 15, 2011, 03:18:52 am
Wisconsin Democratic recall opponent says he wants to "smack around" a women who will not vote for him:

Clark dials up a mess (http://www.wiscnews.com/baraboonewsrepublic/news/article_d59a09d8-963a-11e0-8577-001cc4c002e0.html)
Tim Damos/Baraboo News Republic
Tuesday, June 14, 2011 3:30 am
Quote from: Baraboo News Republic
A rolling tape on an answering machine caught an unsuspecting Rep. Fred Clark, D-Baraboo, saying he wanted to "smack around" a woman from his district after she hung up on him.

Clark, who is challenging Sen. Luther Olsen, R-Ripon, in a recall election, was making campaign calls last week when he reached the Baraboo home of Sue and John Stapelman.

The answering machine took the call at first, but Sue Stapelman then picked up. The machine's tape kept recording.

After Clark introduced himself, he told Sue Stapelman that he was challenging Olsen in the upcoming recall election.

Stapelman responded: "Yeah, and isn't that a crime."

She then hung up on Clark, but her answering machine kept the line open and continued recording.

Clark apparently did not know he was being recorded when, after a short pause, he said to his campaign staffer: "OK. I feel like calling her back and smackin' her around."

--Snip--

I guess he could join forces with Prosser and form an Anti-Bitch Society.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 15, 2011, 09:19:28 am
Candidate list for the six Republican recalls. (http://gab.wi.gov/sites/default/files/page/all_candidates_registered_by_office_july_12_recall_12181.pdf) (link fixed)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: We Have A Pope on June 15, 2011, 10:42:56 am
Candidate list for the six Republican recalls. (http://gab.wi.gov/sites/default/files/page/all_candidates_registered_for_07_12_2011_updated__16373.PDF)

How come it shows only 2 candidates as having any valid signatures?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 15, 2011, 10:54:53 am
They probably haven't verified the petitions yet. I fixed the link (it broke), it now shows signatures for a few of the candidates.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: We Have A Pope on June 15, 2011, 06:25:24 pm
When is the deadline for signatures?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 15, 2011, 06:59:47 pm
It was yesterday for the Republican recalls, presumably it will be next Tuesday for the Democratic recalls.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Smash255 on June 15, 2011, 08:47:04 pm
It was yesterday for the Republican recalls, presumably it will be next Tuesday for the Democratic recalls.

The deadline is next Tuesday for the Democratic recalls according to the GAB website.  Also any challenges to the petition signatures submitted Tuesday will need to be in by Friday, any challenges to the petitions turned in for next Tuesday will need to be in by next Friday.  Not sure on when any decisions on if those petitions are valid are not will be made.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 16, 2011, 07:02:52 pm
Tommy Thompson spilled the beans (http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=239703) on an internal poll that had Harsdorf ahead by 2 points, 49-47.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on June 17, 2011, 12:11:28 am
Looks like I will be taking the day of the election for Harsdorf off work.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Brittain33 on June 17, 2011, 03:45:33 pm
Tommy Thompson spilled the beans (http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=239703) on an internal poll that had Harsdorf ahead by 2 points, 49-47.

Wowza.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Wiz in Wis on June 17, 2011, 04:15:50 pm
Tommy Thompson spilled the beans (http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=239703) on an internal poll that had Harsdorf ahead by 2 points, 49-47.

Wowza.
1) Ol TT can be counted on to be an idiot... good to see consistency

2) if the poll is reasonable, and accurate, then the Dems might pick up 5 or 6... Harsdorf is pretty well liked up there, compared to Hopper, Darling and Kapanke.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on June 20, 2011, 01:01:54 am
Instead of focusing on recruiting fake Democrats, why not get a real Republican to run against Hopper? Because there is no way in hell they are holding that seat otherwise. (They don't have any realistic chance of holding Kapaneke's seat either, but no other candidate would do better.)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: bgwah on June 24, 2011, 02:27:31 am


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Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 25, 2011, 07:53:23 am
Missed this, but the six Republicans currently running in the Democratic recalls appear to have all gotten on the ballot. (http://gab.wi.gov/sites/default/files/page/all_candidates_registered_7_19_11_updated_6_24_11_90928.PDF) Also, the three placeholder Democrats who filed for the Republican recalls have dropped out.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on June 26, 2011, 02:22:30 am
So what's the current timeline of these? I've lost track.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 26, 2011, 07:43:21 am
Primary elections for the six Republican recalls are scheduled for July 12, with a general on August 9. Primary elections for the three Democratic recalls are scheduled for July 19, with a general on August 16. You can also look at the OP, where I've dumped all the information.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 27, 2011, 03:15:21 pm
Wow, here's some news: State Rep. John Nygren has been struck from the ballot (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/124611729.html) in the District 30 recall for having 2 fewer signatures than is needed. 400 is required, he had 424, and 26 were declared invalid. This has two ramifications: Sen. Dave Hansen will face a weaker candidate in the recall election (the recall organizer, David VanderLeest), and this will mean the general election takes place on July 19, as opposed to the other two Democratic recalls, which have been pushed off to August due to Republican primaries.

This is a pretty bush-league mistake: everyone knows you should get 1.5 times the required number of signatures to be safe.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TexasGurl on June 27, 2011, 05:18:07 pm
Haha nice!


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Rowan on June 28, 2011, 07:13:41 pm
Daily Kos/PPP has some polling out:

SD-32

Shilling(D): 56%
Kapanke(R): 42%

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2011/6/23/WI-SD-32/37/zDyhA

SD-18

King(D): 50%
Hopper(R): 47%

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2011/6/23/WI-SD-18/35/derOj

SD-10

Harsdorf(R): 50%
Moore(D): 45%

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2011/6/23/WI-SD-10/36/8Tn3j



Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 28, 2011, 07:26:02 pm
Sounds about right.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 30, 2011, 03:49:15 pm
Nygren is going to court over being bounced from the ballot. (http://www.wisconsinrapidstribune.com/article/20110629/WRT0101/306290060/GOP-lawmaker-challenges-decision-leave-him-off-ballot?odyssey=tab|topnews|img|WRT-News)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TexasGurl on June 30, 2011, 06:58:23 pm
Not a big surprise, won't help him though.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kevinstat on June 30, 2011, 07:44:35 pm
SD-18

King(D): 50%
Hopper(R): 47%

I thought Hopper was doomed, as opposed to trailing but not to be written off.  Maybe he is doomed, I don't know.  What do people think now?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TexasGurl on July 01, 2011, 05:55:19 pm
I was right, judge threw it out already today.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Dgov on July 02, 2011, 08:47:00 pm
SD-18

King(D): 50%
Hopper(R): 47%

I thought Hopper was doomed, as opposed to trailing but not to be written off.  Maybe he is doomed, I don't know.  What do people think now?

Unlike the other vulnerable Rpeublicans, he's just an unpopular incumbent in a fairly Republican district, so it might be that the recent Hyper-partisanship in Wisconsin is helping him out.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on July 03, 2011, 02:10:11 pm
Is there still anyone *couchcinyccough* who thinks Kapanke is going to hang on?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ilikeverin on July 03, 2011, 04:38:30 pm
I shook Shelly Moore's hand today :)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on July 03, 2011, 08:10:25 pm
Moore is actually running TV ads, odd for a State Senate race.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on July 03, 2011, 08:25:04 pm
Moore is actually running TV ads, odd for a State Senate race.

Cable has made TV ads an affordable thing for lots of local races these days.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on July 03, 2011, 08:42:12 pm
Keep in mind though the district is only a very small portion of this media market. This isn't some mostly rural area with some small local networks. If I'm seeing the ads they're costing a bunch.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 06, 2011, 09:51:00 am
The pre-primary fundraising reports for the Republican recalls are in:

District 2

Robert Cowles (R) - $101k raised, $62k on hand; $101k total raised this year
Nancy Nusbaum (D) - $177k raised, $134k on hand

District 8

Alberta Darling (R) - $536k raised, $401k on hand; $958k total raised this year
Sandy Pasch (D) - $431k raised, $216k on hand

District 10

Sheila Harsdorf (R) - $218k raised, $142k on hand; $328k total raised this year
Shelly Moore (D) - $238k raised, $92k on hand

District 14

Luther Olsen (R) - $72k raised, $71k on hand; $107k total raised this year
Fred Clark (D) - $226k raised, $163k on hand

District 18

Randy Hopper (R) - $25k raised, $92k on hand; $227k total raised this year
Jessica King (D) - $222k raised, $191k on hand

District 32

Dan Kapanke (R) - $63k raised, $124k on hand; $726k total raised this year
Jennifer Shilling (D) - $271k raised, $154k on hand

Hopper and Kapanke look like they've about given up. Makes me wonder about that PPP poll showing Hopper only behind by 3. Cowles and Olsen must not think they're in much danger.

Isaac Weix was the only fake Democrat to actually file a report. He raised $1,200, $750 of which was an in-kind from the Wisconsin Republican Party.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on July 06, 2011, 11:43:50 am
Where is the 8th district located?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 06, 2011, 11:45:58 am
Milwaukee suburbs.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on July 08, 2011, 01:52:20 am
Type of seat that just shouldn't be competitive despite an appendage reaching down to the Milwaukee border, and and only was because of Obama coattails. He won the district 51-49 which in Wisconsin isn't all that strong, but Darling only won 51-49 as well, so there was clearly a downballot effect. Of course I've also got the impression that Darling is an idiot and not all that popular (one of those both stupid and crazy female Republican types like Bachmann, Palin and O'Donnell, though in her case more stupid than crazy), so her poor performance isn't a surprise. Her name is pretty appropriate for such a right winger though.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TexasGurl on July 08, 2011, 05:36:58 pm
The 8th district starts a block north of my house.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TexasGurl on July 12, 2011, 04:00:34 pm
Someone is making robo calls to registered democrats telling them they don't need to go to the polls.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/07/12/robocalls-spam-wi-democrats-telling-them-not-to-vote-in-recall-elections/ (http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/07/12/robocalls-spam-wi-democrats-telling-them-not-to-vote-in-recall-elections/)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 12, 2011, 06:38:33 pm
Yeah, so the primaries for the six Republican recalls are today.

Pre-primary fundraising reports are in for the three Democratic recalls. Here are the details. (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/125392113.html)

District 12

Jim Holperin (D) - $338k raised, $148k on hand
Kim Simac (R) - $22k raised, $54k on hand
Robert Lussow (R) - $350 raised, $350 on hand

District 22

Robert Wirch (D) - $184k raised, $142k on hand
Jonathan Steitz (R) - $33k raised, $12k on hand
Fred Ekornaas (R) - $5k raised, $437 on hand

District 30

Dave Hansen (D) - $318k raised, $243k on hand
David VanderLeest (R) - no report in the article, but he appears to have raised about $3k.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Rowan on July 12, 2011, 06:44:54 pm
Who are the real Democrats and the fake Democrats tonight? I need to know who to root for.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 12, 2011, 08:22:39 pm
Look at the OP.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 12, 2011, 08:55:35 pm
Can someone please post a link to the results? I can't find anything on the government site.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ilikeverin on July 12, 2011, 09:19:35 pm
Here's (http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/121291664.html) a guide to the elections (including which ones are fakes), and here's (http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/125430333.html) the results.  So far real Dems are leading 2-0 with 4 yet to be projected.  Shelly Moore's numbers look rather worrying for the general.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 12, 2011, 09:49:41 pm
The Republicans targeted Moore to try to defeat her in the primary. Turnout was quite a bit higher in that district than in the others. Regardless, all the fake Dems lost.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 15, 2011, 06:47:57 pm
A Dem poll puts Pasch one point ahead of Darling, 47-46. (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/125653323.html)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Rowan on July 18, 2011, 05:08:44 pm
Hansen looks safe tomorrow(according to PPP)

STATE SENATE – WISCONSIN – D30 (PPP)

Dave Hansen (D-inc) 62%
David VanderLeest (R) 34%

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2011/7/15/WI-SD-30/39/WdEvk


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 18, 2011, 05:41:54 pm
The race appears to be about VanderLeest's history of domestic abuse rather than Hansen's record, so I'm not exactly surprised.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on July 18, 2011, 06:27:00 pm
Very little of these races seem to actually be about the collective bargaining bill. At least that's the impression I'm getting from the TV ads.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 18, 2011, 06:55:51 pm
Very little of these races seem to actually be about the collective bargaining bill. At least that's the impression I'm getting from the TV ads.

These must be pretty epic match ups if you're seeing the Wisconsin ads in Washington!


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Holmes on July 18, 2011, 07:56:58 pm
Very little of these races seem to actually be about the collective bargaining bill. At least that's the impression I'm getting from the TV ads.

These must be pretty epic match ups if you're seeing the Wisconsin ads in Washington!

You're trying a little too hard now.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 18, 2011, 10:10:15 pm
Very little of these races seem to actually be about the collective bargaining bill. At least that's the impression I'm getting from the TV ads.

These must be pretty epic match ups if you're seeing the Wisconsin ads in Washington!

You're trying a little too hard now.

Really? Because it's been too easy.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on July 19, 2011, 12:09:06 am
Very little of these races seem to actually be about the collective bargaining bill. At least that's the impression I'm getting from the TV ads.

These must be pretty epic match ups if you're seeing the Wisconsin ads in Washington!

You know, there is a wonderful new thing called the Internets. You should try it sometimes. It's much more practical than waiting for that damn pigeon.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on July 19, 2011, 12:21:22 am
Was Phil's comment intended to be a joke? Was it supposed to be a swipe at me? I'm confused.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on July 19, 2011, 03:15:21 am
Was Phil's comment intended to be a joke? Was it supposed to be a swipe at me? I'm confused.
I don't think he draws a clear distinction between these two concepts. ;D
More a joke, though.

It's much more practical than waiting for that damn pigeon.
The Mafiosi don't like those pigeons either. It's just that Ghost Dog refuses to communicate with Louie by any other channel.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 19, 2011, 06:27:31 pm
The primaries for the Holperin and Wirch recalls are today, as is the Hansen/VanderLeest general election. Turnout looks to be light for the former and pretty brisk for the latter; they're projecting 51% in Brown County for Hansen/VanderLeest, while in Kenosha County, primary turnout is expected to be in single-digits. (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/125846948.html)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 19, 2011, 07:54:18 pm
Polls close in 5 minutes, results link here. (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/WI_State_Senate_0719.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on July 19, 2011, 08:12:38 pm
In the two Republican primaries are there clear favorite/better candidate?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 19, 2011, 08:22:34 pm
Lussow is probably more electable in the 12th, but Simac has raised more money (I've heard her compared to Michele Bachmann, for what that's worth).

Steitz is the stronger candidate in the 22nd, in my opinion, since the other guy barely raised any money.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on July 19, 2011, 08:41:40 pm
Hansen is on track to run even with or better than his 2008 numbers. Awesome.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 19, 2011, 08:51:13 pm
for the moment, it's Hansen 69% VanderLeest 31%. LoL


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: HST1948 on July 19, 2011, 08:56:15 pm
for the moment, it's Hansen 69% VanderLeest 31%. LoL

AP just called it for Hansen a few minutes ago.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 19, 2011, 09:00:48 pm
Steitz will win the nomination in the 22nd; he's leading 2-1 in Kenosha with 2/3rds of the precincts in. (http://www.co.kenosha.wi.us/countyclerk/election_results/voteresult.phtml)

Simac will probably win in the 12th, unless Lussow has some hidden strength in the counties that haven't reported yet (he's from one of them, Lincoln County).


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on July 19, 2011, 09:35:18 pm
How's the turnout? VanderLeest is enough of a joke that it seems kind of like that would tell us more than almost anything else at this point.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 19, 2011, 10:02:29 pm
Very little of these races seem to actually be about the collective bargaining bill. At least that's the impression I'm getting from the TV ads.

These must be pretty epic match ups if you're seeing the Wisconsin ads in Washington!

You know, there is a wonderful new thing called the Internets. You should try it sometimes. It's much more practical than waiting for that damn pigeon.

Jokes - I guess they're difficult to appreciate when your country is burning down.

Was Phil's comment intended to be a joke? Was it supposed to be a swipe at me? I'm confused.

Not even sure how it could be seen as a swipe. It was a joke.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on July 19, 2011, 10:07:37 pm
Was Phil's comment intended to be a joke? Was it supposed to be a swipe at me? I'm confused.

Not even sure how it could be seen as a swipe. It was a joke.

Oh ok. No problem then. :)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on July 19, 2011, 10:08:58 pm
AP called the 12th for Simac.

With one precinct left, Hansen is leading 66 to 34 - his exact '08 margin.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on July 19, 2011, 11:55:44 pm
Very little of these races seem to actually be about the collective bargaining bill. At least that's the impression I'm getting from the TV ads.

These must be pretty epic match ups if you're seeing the Wisconsin ads in Washington!

You know, there is a wonderful new thing called the Internets. You should try it sometimes. It's much more practical than waiting for that damn pigeon.

Jokes - I guess they're difficult to appreciate when your country is burning down.


I didn't know that you're from Catalunya.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 20, 2011, 06:54:46 pm
Very little of these races seem to actually be about the collective bargaining bill. At least that's the impression I'm getting from the TV ads.

These must be pretty epic match ups if you're seeing the Wisconsin ads in Washington!

You know, there is a wonderful new thing called the Internets. You should try it sometimes. It's much more practical than waiting for that damn pigeon.

Jokes - I guess they're difficult to appreciate when your country is burning down.


I didn't know that you're from Catalunya.

Catalunya isn't a country. and it isn't burning down.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 20, 2011, 07:01:08 pm
Another Dem poll (http://www.wispolitics.com/1006/11fre720_f_WI_SSDC_14th_SD.pdf), this one has Fred Clark leading Luther Olsen 45-43 among all voters, 50-44 among likely voters, and 49-46 among "certain" voters.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 20, 2011, 09:39:39 pm
Very little of these races seem to actually be about the collective bargaining bill. At least that's the impression I'm getting from the TV ads.

These must be pretty epic match ups if you're seeing the Wisconsin ads in Washington!

You know, there is a wonderful new thing called the Internets. You should try it sometimes. It's much more practical than waiting for that damn pigeon.

Jokes - I guess they're difficult to appreciate when your country is burning down.


I didn't know that you're from Catalunya.

Catalunya isn't a country. and it isn't burning down.

I was going to point out both but I figured saying that Catalunya isn't a country would cause enough of a firestorm.  :P


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on July 22, 2011, 01:19:45 pm
It is, of course, an entirely untrue statement. The country of Catalunya is not an independent country.

Kinda like Sicily, then. Or Hawaii. Or the GDR. ;D

As to the burning down part, I don't get the reference.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 22, 2011, 04:03:41 pm
Catalunya could be called a Nation, but not a country.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on July 22, 2011, 04:15:17 pm
As to the burning down part, I don't get the reference.


Nah, I saw a news report at a local channel about wildfires near Barcelona but apparently they exaggerated the magnitude of that incident.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on July 23, 2011, 03:32:15 am
Catalunya could be called a Nation, but not a country.
Exact same thing.
Unless we'd be talking about a "nation" without clearly defined boundaries, ie an ethnic group. But we aren't.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: MaxQue on July 23, 2011, 04:12:07 am
Catalunya could be called a Nation, but not a country.
Exact same thing.
Unless we'd be talking about a "nation" without clearly defined boundaries, ie an ethnic group. But we aren't.

Well, Quebec is a nation, according to a motion the Canadian Parliament voted.
And do you know the four nations of the United Kingdom?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on July 23, 2011, 04:58:36 am
And do you know the four nations of the United Kingdom?
I don't think you understood a word of my post. Probably a translation issue.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: MaxQue on July 23, 2011, 05:23:12 am
And do you know the four nations of the United Kingdom?
I don't think you understood a word of my post. Probably a translation issue.

From the way I read it, you consider a nation and a country to be exactly the same. So, you think than Catalunya is a non-independant country?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on July 23, 2011, 05:41:30 am
And do you know the four nations of the United Kingdom?
I don't think you understood a word of my post. Probably a translation issue.

From the way I read it, you consider a nation and a country to be exactly the same.
As in, the word "country" can be used in that sense, much as the word "nation". Certainly a Castilian thinking "nation" for Catalunya is okay but "country" is not wouldn't happen without translation issues. Other way round makes more sense, actually, "country" being the older word that predates modern nationalism.



Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ilikeverin on July 23, 2011, 10:21:40 am
And do you know the four nations of the United Kingdom?
I don't think you understood a word of my post. Probably a translation issue.

From the way I read it, you consider a nation and a country to be exactly the same.
As in, the word "country" can be used in that sense, much as the word "nation". Certainly a Castilian thinking "nation" for Catalunya is okay but "country" is not wouldn't happen without translation issues. Other way round makes more sense, actually, "country" being the older word that predates modern nationalism.



Hmm?  I've always learned "country" is one with actual borders, while "nation" can transcend country boundaries.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: We Have A Pope on July 23, 2011, 10:27:38 am
Excellent thread hijack :P


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on July 23, 2011, 12:54:52 pm
Stop taking about Spain! Wisconsin: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOYus1BE7jk


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Rowan on July 23, 2011, 01:46:39 pm
"Daily Kos is polling three more Wisconsin recalls this weekend, the seats held by GOP Sens. Olsen, Darling & Cowles."

http://twitter.com/#!/DKElections/status/94808079849357312


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 25, 2011, 07:55:38 pm
The polls will be out tomorrow; Kos has teased them thusly (http://twitter.com/#!/markos/statuses/95546819496513536):

"Got new Wisc polling. Big picture: Dems up big in one, up narrowly in two, trail by less than 5 in three. It's CLOSE. Need 3 to win"

Kapanke is down by 14, and Hopper is down by 3. I'm guessing Olsen is going to be down by 2-3, Darling is going to be ahead by 2-3, and Cowles is going to be ahead by 4-5.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Mr.Phips on July 25, 2011, 09:30:10 pm
Democrats are better off if Darling wins in SD-08, since that seat is made unwinnable for Democrats in redistricting.  If Pasch wins, she will only be there for 15 months. 


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Holmes on July 26, 2011, 05:59:31 am
They're "better" for winning an unwinnable seat? ugh. Sometimes, you make no sense at all.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on July 26, 2011, 08:02:43 am
Hmm?  I've always learned "country" is one with actual borders.
Yes, absolutely. Which is why I excempted that other def. of "nation". They don't need to currently be primary borders.

Of course, here in Germany we call our states "countries", so... ;D


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Rowan on July 26, 2011, 04:18:17 pm
    STATE SENATE – WISCONSIN – SD14 (PPP/DKos)
    Fred Clark (D) 49%
    Luther Olsen (R-inc) 47%

    STATE SENATE – WISCONSIN – SD2 (PPP/DKos)
    Rob Cowles (R-inc) 51%
    Nancy Nusbaum (D) 47%

    STATE SENATE – WISCONSIN – SD8 (PPP/DKos)
    Alberta Darling (R-inc) 52%
    Sandy Pasch (D) 47

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/07/26/999005/-Wisconsin-Recall:-New-polling-shows-Democratic-lead-in-one-race,-two-moreracestight?via=blog_1


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on July 31, 2011, 02:06:11 am
One of the campaign offices of We are Wisconsin, a left-wing PAC supporting the Democrats, was destroyed in a fire Saturday morning. The office was helping out State Rep. Jennifer Shilling who is running against Dan Kapanke. Shilling's office was also damaged a little.

http://lacrossetribune.com/news/local/article_b5828580-bacf-11e0-a78e-001cc4c002e0.html


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on August 01, 2011, 05:02:51 pm
Hmm?  I've always learned "country" is one with actual borders.
Yes, absolutely. Which is why I excempted that other def. of "nation". They don't need to currently be primary borders.

Of course, here in Germany we call our states "countries", so... ;D

What exactly is the difference between Land and Staat?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 01, 2011, 05:18:52 pm
Hmm?  I've always learned "country" is one with actual borders.
Yes, absolutely. Which is why I excempted that other def. of "nation". They don't need to currently be primary borders.

Of course, here in Germany we call our states "countries", so... ;D

What exactly is the difference between Land and Staat?

Country and state, respectively


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 01, 2011, 05:52:55 pm
Kim Simac, Republican challenger to Sen. Holperin, compared public education to the Nazis. (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/01/kim-simac-tea-party-candi_n_914897.html?ref=fb&src=sp)

Quote
I am done raising my kids but if I was a young parent today I would take my kids out of the public school system today. At what point will we stop talking about the comparisons to what is occurring today and what actually happened by the regime of the Nazi's in the past?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on August 02, 2011, 01:44:37 pm
Kim Simac, Republican challenger to Sen. Holperin, compared public education to the Nazis. (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/01/kim-simac-tea-party-candi_n_914897.html?ref=fb&src=sp)

Quote
I am done raising my kids but if I was a young parent today I would take my kids out of the public school system today. At what point will we stop talking about the comparisons to what is occurring today and what actually happened by the regime of the Nazi's in the past?
Indeed, at what point will such idiots as this one stop? ???


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 02, 2011, 06:23:58 pm
Here's a roundup of July campaign finance reports for next week's recalls. (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/126558423.html)

District 2

Robert Cowles (R) - $64,825 raised, $29,826 spent, $98,817 on hand; $166,996 total raised
Nancy Nusbaum (D) - $61,808 raised, $91,658 spent, $104,333 on hand; $239,609 total raised

District 8

Alberta Darling (R) - $165,155 raised, $431,108 spent, $135,429 on hand; $1.1 million total raised
Sandy Pasch (D) - $190,865 raised, $343,399 spent, $63,943 on hand; $622,680 total raised

District 10

Sheila Harsdorf (R) - $106,448 raised, $151,068 spent, $97,343 on hand; $434,181 total raised
Shelly Moore (D) - $95,032 raised, $76,929 spent, $111,610 on hand; $335,038 total raised

District 14

Luther Olson (R) - $64,744 raised, $37,969 spent, $97,432 on hand; $171,856 total raised
Fred Clark (D) - $67,750 raised, $163,401 spent, $67,455 on hand; $294,251 total raised

District 18

Randy Hopper (R) - $106,103 raised, $3,463 spent, $195,564 on hand; $332,811 total raised
Jessica King (D) - $96,372 raised, $180,940 spent, $106,079 on hand; $318,154 total raised

District 32

Dan Kapanke (R) - ??? raised (article doesn't say), $231,912 spent, $48,380 on hand; $882,381 total raised
Jennifer Shilling (D) - $61,270 raised, $171,828 spent, $80,089 on hand; $332,655 total raised


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Eraserhead on August 03, 2011, 02:34:56 am
Should public polling of State Senate races be taken at all seriously?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 03, 2011, 07:01:19 am
PPP got the Hansen/Vanderleest race almost exactly right.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 03, 2011, 07:21:12 pm
Some polls have come out from something called Insider Michigan Politics. No undecideds makes them look sketchy, but they don't look too out of line with the PPP polling:

District 12
Jim Holperin (D) - 53.7
Kim Simac (R) - 46.3

District 18
Jessica King (D) - 54.7
Randy Hopper (R) - 45.3

District 32
Jennifer Shilling (D) - 57.0
Dan Kapanke (R) - 43.0


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: HST1948 on August 03, 2011, 07:26:43 pm
So, I'm relatively unfamiliar with these recalls so I'm just going to come out and ask: What are the chances that Democrats win the three seats that they need to take back the Wisconsin state senate and which seats would these be?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 03, 2011, 07:39:08 pm
Their chances are pretty decent, actually. Dan Kapanke is toast, while Luther Olson and Randy Hopper are tossups that may be leaning slightly to the Democrats. The other three are probably going to hold on.

On the defense side, Wirch isn't going to have any trouble, and Holperin lucked out and got a nutter opponent, so he's probably favored.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: HST1948 on August 03, 2011, 08:31:52 pm
Their chances are pretty decent, actually. Dan Kapanke is toast, while Luther Olson and Randy Hopper are tossups that may be leaning slightly to the Democrats. The other three are probably going to hold on.

On the defense side, Wirch isn't going to have any trouble, and Holperin lucked out and got a nutter opponent, so he's probably favored.

Thanks! :)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on August 04, 2011, 06:45:24 pm
Democratic Party asks for criminal investigation into Darling's campaign finances

http://www.politiscoop.com/component/content/article/35-last-24h-news/439-darling-accused-of-criminal-felonies.html (http://www.politiscoop.com/component/content/article/35-last-24h-news/439-darling-accused-of-criminal-felonies.html)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Snowguy716 on August 06, 2011, 12:19:44 am
Democratic Party asks for criminal investigation into Darling's campaign finances

http://www.politiscoop.com/component/content/article/35-last-24h-news/439-darling-accused-of-criminal-felonies.html (http://www.politiscoop.com/component/content/article/35-last-24h-news/439-darling-accused-of-criminal-felonies.html)
She also came out today and said that having recall elections is ridiculous and that if the voters don't like what she's done, they should wait until 2012.

She trotted out the old "elections have consequences" bullsh**t and said she is making her decisions based on what the people wanted in 2010...

But, Ms. Darling... that goes against the Will of the People™.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Miles on August 06, 2011, 01:32:28 am
'Kinda changing topics, but if Democrats take both chambers and defeat Walker by 2013, what are the odds of a mid-decade redistricting?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on August 06, 2011, 03:32:10 am
'Kinda changing topics, but if Democrats take both chambers and defeat Walker by 2013, what are the odds of a mid-decade redistricting?
Given that Republicans somewhat threw away their trifecta here... not as high as they might be.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 06, 2011, 07:46:57 am
Pretty unlikely, I'd say; it gets talked about a lot but rarely happens (Georgia and Texas were the only examples in the past decade).


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 06, 2011, 12:16:49 pm
Here (http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/wisconsin-recall-elections-coming-down-wire_582071.html) is some more chatter about the recall elections for you.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on August 06, 2011, 03:04:06 pm
Here (http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/wisconsin-recall-elections-coming-down-wire_582071.html) is some more chatter about the recall elections for you.

Good article, besides the disgusting boasting about Scott Walker "being vindicated" when his goons in relatively safe districts are in trouble. The reason Democrats aren't going after the Republicans on collective bargaining is that non-unionized swing voters don't care about it as much as the education cuts and public workers are already more than sufficiently fired about it.

None of these districts are bastions of unions. Kapanke's district is rural farmland that's been progressive since the late 1800s, Darling's is a mix of posh urban neighborhoods and exurbs that care little about "union rights" and much more about their education system etc. Democrats are only avoiding collective bargaining because these are red districts and swing voters are more likely to be swayed by their child's education being gutted than public worker's complaining about something that doesn't affect them.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 06, 2011, 04:37:44 pm
Kapanke's district is pretty Democratic. I'm assuming he's been able to survive so far by keeping a low profile, but obviously that's over.

Kim Simac failed to appear at a debate (http://www.wjfw.com/stories.html?sku=20110805143140). Holperin is seriously lucky to get such a flake of an opponent.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 06, 2011, 04:45:39 pm
We'll be getting another round of polls from DK/PPP this weekend. They're polling four of the six Republican recalls (presumably Kapanke is getting skipped since he's toast, not sure who the other skip would be).


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Mr.Phips on August 06, 2011, 04:59:38 pm
Kapanke's district is pretty Democratic. I'm assuming he's been able to survive so far by keeping a low profile, but obviously that's over.

Kim Simac failed to appear at a debate (http://www.wjfw.com/stories.html?sku=20110805143140). Holperin is seriously lucky to get such a flake of an opponent.

Kapanke's district is heavily Democratic.  Even John Kerry won there by a pretty solid margin and he only beat a nobody opponent in 2008 by three points. 


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Nhoj on August 06, 2011, 05:33:56 pm
Here (http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/wisconsin-recall-elections-coming-down-wire_582071.html) is some more chatter about the recall elections for you.

Good article, besides the disgusting boasting about Scott Walker "being vindicated" when his goons in relatively safe districts are in trouble. The reason Democrats aren't going after the Republicans on collective bargaining is that non-unionized swing voters don't care about it as much as the education cuts and public workers are already more than sufficiently fired about it.

None of these districts are bastions of unions. Kapanke's district is rural farmland that's been progressive since the late 1800s, Darling's is a mix of posh urban neighborhoods and exurbs that care little about "union rights" and much more about their education system etc. Democrats are only avoiding collective bargaining because these are red districts and swing voters are more likely to be swayed by their child's education being gutted than public worker's complaining about something that doesn't affect them.
Not exactly, La crosse is a college town of 50k in the city limits and is the center of the district. What you said is about right for the rest of the district though.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on August 06, 2011, 07:47:03 pm
How did Kapanke win the seat to begin with?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 06, 2011, 08:19:46 pm
State legislative seats don't always end up being decided by partisan issues. Kapanke probably tried to focus on local issues or something. Like I said, he probably kept a low profile, until he blew it with his run for Congress and supporting Walker's agenda lockstep.

He did only win by slim margins in both 2004 (52.5 - 47.5) and 2008 (51.4 - 48.6).


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on August 06, 2011, 09:38:36 pm
Kapanke isn't even a moderate and must've kept his craziness under wraps while running for the state leg, he said something along the lines of that he supported all of Walker's agenda because it was God's will or some nonsense like that.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kevinstat on August 07, 2011, 10:55:46 am
'Kinda changing topics, but if Democrats take both chambers and defeat Walker by 2013, what are the odds of a mid-decade redistricting?
Given that Republicans somewhat threw away their trifecta here... not as high as they might be.

Has the Governor even signed those plans yet?  I know he signed the one allowing the redistiricting to be done earlier, but I've done a Google search and can't see that he's signed a single redistricting plan.  My guess is he has, or will before the Senate has a chance to meet after Tuesday's elections and recall the bill from the Governor.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TeePee4Prez on August 07, 2011, 03:01:27 pm
Kapanke isn't even a moderate and must've kept his craziness under wraps while running for the state leg, he said something along the lines of that he supported all of Walker's agenda because it was God's will or some nonsense like that.

In a way I wish Tom Corbett acted like a Scott Walker.  There are a lot of PA legislators than are pretty conservative, but got in on focusing on local issues yet their districts are decidedly Democratic.  Quite a lot of fruit would be low hanging for us if we had a Walker/Kasich.  Walker definitely has a silver lining for the Democratic party.  PA Dems have not been able to use the Macellus Shale issue as well as the OH and WI Dems have been able to use Kasich and Walker. 


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 07, 2011, 04:10:18 pm
Article about the Olsen/Clark race. (http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/127076403.html) Olsen has never had to run a general election campaign, he's been unopposed every single time he's been up for election in the past 16 years. That might partially account for why he's doing so poorly.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on August 07, 2011, 04:20:27 pm
Doesn't the downplaying of the collective bargaining issue hurt in some ways? Every state has made deep cuts in education for instance, so I would think running against the "gutting of education" would not produce as much of a response considering the acknowledge need for states to control their budgets. It just wouldn't seem that you have the kind of effect were you to run against what you have termed a partisan power grab, which would in my opinion have an effect on swing voters even if they don't particularly care much about unions. We'll get to see whether this was a wise strategy, fairly shortly, I guess.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Franzl on August 07, 2011, 07:32:07 pm
Forgive me for being so uninformed about this (I've pretty much attempted to ignore political news for the last several weeks....and it was quite nice), but what are realistic odds that Walker could lose the Senate majority?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 07, 2011, 07:51:20 pm
I posted this one page ago:

Their chances are pretty decent, actually. Dan Kapanke is toast, while Luther Olson and Randy Hopper are tossups that may be leaning slightly to the Democrats. The other three are probably going to hold on.

On the defense side, Wirch isn't going to have any trouble, and Holperin lucked out and got a nutter opponent, so he's probably favored.

We should have some final polls from DK/PPP either tonight or tomorrow.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 07, 2011, 08:01:30 pm
Doesn't the downplaying of the collective bargaining issue hurt in some ways? Every state has made deep cuts in education for instance, so I would think running against the "gutting of education" would not produce as much of a response considering the acknowledge need for states to control their budgets. It just wouldn't seem that you have the kind of effect were you to run against what you have termed a partisan power grab, which would in my opinion have an effect on swing voters even if they don't particularly care much about unions. We'll get to see whether this was a wise strategy, fairly shortly, I guess.

Firing your kid's band teacher makes people a lot more angry than taking away collective bargaining from people you may or may not know.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on August 07, 2011, 09:03:30 pm
Doesn't the downplaying of the collective bargaining issue hurt in some ways? Every state has made deep cuts in education for instance, so I would think running against the "gutting of education" would not produce as much of a response considering the acknowledge need for states to control their budgets. It just wouldn't seem that you have the kind of effect were you to run against what you have termed a partisan power grab, which would in my opinion have an effect on swing voters even if they don't particularly care much about unions. We'll get to see whether this was a wise strategy, fairly shortly, I guess.

Firing your kid's band teacher makes people a lot more angry than taking away collective bargaining from people you may or may not know.

Not to mention the average person at this point has never been a member of a union or even a relative of someone in a union so they have no real grasp of what collective bargaining is and its importance.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: krazen1211 on August 08, 2011, 10:25:58 am
Great Polls.


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/08/08/1004363/-Wisconsin-recall-elections:-Too-close-to%C2%A0call?via=blog_542760#comments

SD-32:

Jennifer Shilling (D): 54 (56)
Dan Kapanke (R-inc): 43 (42)
Undecided: 3 (3)
(MoE: ±3.4%)
SD-18:

Jessica King (D): 48 (50)
Randy Hopper (R-inc): 49 (47)
Undecided: 3 (3)
(MoE: ±2.7%)
SD-10:

Shelly Moore (D): 42 (45)
Sheila Harsdorf (R-inc): 54 (50)
Undecided: 4 (5)
(MoE: ±2.7%)
SD-14:

Fred Clark (D): 47 (49)
Luther Olsen (R-inc): 50 (47)
Undecided: 3 (4)
(MoE: ±2.8%)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 08, 2011, 10:39:34 am
So Dems need to sweep the Hooper-Olsen-Harsdorf races to take control, right (I'm assuming Kapanke is finished and the other Republicans are safe)?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on August 08, 2011, 10:42:09 am
So Dems need to sweep the Hooper-Olsen-Harsdorf races to take control, right (I'm assuming Kapanke is finished and the other Republicans are safe)?
Nope, two plus Kapanke.
Nobody ever talks about Cowles, so I assume he's as safe as the two Democrats are. Darling might be safe, might not, much like Harsdorf.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on August 08, 2011, 12:00:28 pm
Race ratings for each Senator:

Dan Kapanke - Likely D
Randy Hopper - Tilt D
Luther Olson - Tossup
Alberta Darling - Lean R
Rob Cowles - Lean R/Likely R
Shelia Harsdorf - Lean R/Likely R

There are no guaranteed wins here outside of Schilling beating Kapanke.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 08, 2011, 01:00:20 pm
It'll all come down to the ground game. Drama!


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 08, 2011, 05:50:03 pm
It would be pretty embarrassing if they only beat Kapanke.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on August 08, 2011, 06:28:03 pm
I suppose this will keep us awake on the East Coast till 2 or 3 in the morning, correct? :P


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 08, 2011, 07:16:21 pm
Here's the AP results link for tomorrow. (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_state/WI_State_Senate_0809.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 08, 2011, 07:28:55 pm
I suppose this will keep us awake on the East Coast till 2 or 3 in the morning, correct? :P

Nah, all the races should be over by 11 PM Eastern. Except for the 8th, since Waukesha County is in the district. The incompetent county clerk there will probably keep everyone waiting until after midnight.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on August 08, 2011, 07:56:19 pm
TEST RESULTS ONLY - NOT FOR BROADCAST OR PUBLICATION 
State Senate - District 32 - General
119 of 119 Precincts Reporting - 100%
 Name Party Votes Vote %
 Kapanke, Dan (i) GOP 35,745 55%
 Shilling, Jennifer Dem 29,247 45%
 
Kapanke wishes this was real most likely. ;D

The irony is that the best possible outcome for him, it would seem, is probably 55-45, for Shilling. 


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: rbt48 on August 08, 2011, 10:46:09 pm
The antics on Wall Street today seems likely to help the GOP hold onto the Wisconsin Senate.  I think enough folks who blame Obama for the mess and are convinced we are overspending will be motivated to get out and vote.  Not that the Wisconsin State Senate has any remote say in our national fiscal policy, but the timing couldn't have been worse for Badger Democrats.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Invisible Obama on August 08, 2011, 11:07:53 pm
I don't think national issues are going to effect these races at all. It's been heavily localized now and with most people having decided one way or another, it's quite late for any last minute changes.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 09, 2011, 01:31:36 am
As for predictions...

I'm going to say that all of the Republicans except Kapanke hold on. While I think Kapanke is finished, the result will be closer than people are expecting. I'll say 55% to 45% in Shilling's favor.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on August 09, 2011, 01:49:07 am
Time for some predictions:

Jennifer Schilling 57%
Dan Kapanke 43%

Jessica King 52%
Randy Hopper 48%

Fred Clark 50.1%
Luther Olson 49.9%

Alberta Darling 51%
Sandy Pasch 49%

Shelia Harsdorf 54%
Shelly Moore 46%

Robert Cowles 55%
Some Dude (has this race been covered at all?) 45%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Tender Branson on August 09, 2011, 06:50:24 am
Can anybody please post the 2008 Obama vs. McCain results in these districts as well as the 2004 and 2008 and 2010 results of these elections ?

Thx.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 09, 2011, 07:03:16 am
My guess is the same as I predicted months ago: Kapanke and Hopper lose.

Can anybody please post the 2008 Obama vs. McCain results in these districts as well as the 2004 and 2008 and 2010 results of these elections ?

Thx.

The Bush/Kerry, Obama/McCain, and Prosser/Kloppenberg numbers are in the OP. In 2008, Kapanke, Darling, and Hopper all barely won with about 50-51% of the vote, Harsdorf won about 57-43, and the other two were unopposed.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Mr.Phips on August 09, 2011, 07:24:59 am
The antics on Wall Street today seems likely to help the GOP hold onto the Wisconsin Senate.  I think enough folks who blame Obama for the mess and are convinced we are overspending will be motivated to get out and vote.  Not that the Wisconsin State Senate has any remote say in our national fiscal policy, but the timing couldn't have been worse for Badger Democrats.


I would think that the antics on Wall Street would make people want to vote out incumbents. 


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: krazen1211 on August 09, 2011, 09:19:14 am
This is going to be a great example of Nixon's silent majority.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Tender Branson on August 09, 2011, 01:08:57 pm
I´m pleased to see that PPP got the recall election right that was already held.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Invisible Obama on August 09, 2011, 02:13:15 pm
Democrats win three seats, two at minimum.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on August 09, 2011, 02:42:12 pm
Kapanke strong D, Hopper lean D, Olsen tilt D, Darling and Harsdorf tilt R, Cowles likely R.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 09, 2011, 02:49:50 pm
Looks like some of our Dem members don't have much faith in PPP for these races. I wonder why.  ;)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on August 09, 2011, 03:00:24 pm
'Voters in Wisconsin have started getting tons of robocalls urging them to vote, and some have started just ignoring their phones altogether. Since PPP also uses automated calls, this makes it trickier for us to poll and introduces a greater element of uncertainty than usual into these numbers.'


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: NVGonzalez on August 09, 2011, 03:18:11 pm
If Darling loses I will be soooo happy...


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Rowan on August 09, 2011, 04:12:25 pm
Kapanke and Hopper both go down.

Republicans retain control of the Senate, however.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: krazen1211 on August 09, 2011, 04:39:14 pm
http://twitter.com/#!/djambrek/status/101040179883675649

Disheartened to see voter turnout in student wards at Oshkosh and Milwaukee are low, but not surprised



Hehehe


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2011, 04:42:13 pm
http://twitter.com/#!/djambrek/status/101040179883675649

Disheartened to see voter turnout in student wards at Oshkosh and Milwaukee are low, but not surprised



Hehehe

Uhh, duh. It's the summer.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Holmes on August 09, 2011, 04:46:54 pm
Happy voter turnout is low? smh.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Tender Branson on August 09, 2011, 05:00:38 pm
Anyway, why are these recall elections held during summer/vacation time and not in November ?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2011, 05:02:32 pm
Because Wisconsin state law says they have to be held x number of days after the signatures are submitted. And the volunteers only had y number of days to collect signatures. And if they wanted to collect enough signatures they had to start on z date while anger over the budget was still fresh in peoples minds.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 09, 2011, 05:03:26 pm
Anyway, why are these recall elections held during summer/vacation time and not in November ?

The Dems were impatient.

Never was there a more meaningless election. The Pubbies got their wish list enacted into law, and after their gerrymander, will get back control of the Senate in short order (Jan 2013) even if they lose 3 seats tonight.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Tender Branson on August 09, 2011, 05:06:17 pm
And why are there recall elections in only a handful of districts and why are also Democratic incumbents up for recall ?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2011, 05:07:59 pm
Only those State Senators up for re-election in 2012 were eligible for a recall. Signatures were gathered against all of them, but some of them didn't get enough to be recalled.

The Democratic recalls were organized by Republicans in retribution for the recalls against the Republicans.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 05:16:33 pm
Never was there a more meaningless election. The Pubbies got their wish list enacted into law, and after their gerrymander, will get back control of the Senate in short order (Jan 2013) even if they lose 3 seats tonight.

There, actually, could be an interesting twist. It is quite probable, especially if the Dems are reasonably successful today, that there is going to be a next batch of recalls next year. It is not impossible that such recalls would happen around the regula election date. And here could be a funny thing: I guess, the recalls would have to still run on the old lines, so that some voters would get a chance to vote both in the new district and in the old district at the same time!


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Tender Branson on August 09, 2011, 05:17:37 pm
Ah, ok. Thx.

In my opinion these elections won't tell us anything. It's like predicting the upcoming parliamentary election here by using a local state election before that and projecting the results. More or less useless.

I´m only interested in how PPP's polls in some of the districts turn out (the ones they did this weekend).


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: NVGonzalez on August 09, 2011, 05:18:29 pm
based upon what I am reading the GOP looks very nervous. Which is why I feel like this.
(http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i248/k_d_thom/burns.jpg)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Tender Branson on August 09, 2011, 05:41:22 pm
Here is 1 poll from Magellan Strategies (R) that you forgot to post:

Baton Rouge, LA – Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results of an autodial
survey of 1,433 voters inWisconsin Senate District 18. The survey was conducted August
4th, 2011.

The survey finds the race statistically tied. Republican, Randy Hooper is currently polling
47.5%, while Democrat Jessica King is polling 50%. The electorate is extremely polarized.
Of the 47.5% Hooper is polling, 46.1% is definitely supporting Hooper and of the 50% King
is polling, 48.1% is definitely supporting King.

The race appears to be a referendum on Governor ScottWalker and unions. Ninety-eight
percent of voters who support Hooper also approve of the job Governor ScottWalker is
doing, while 95%of King’s support disapproves of the job GovernorWalker is doing.
Likewise, 85%of Hooper’s support has an unfavorable opinion on labor unions, while 90%
of King’s support has a favorable opinion of unions.

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/WISD018_080311-SURVEY-RELEASE1.pdf


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Invisible Obama on August 09, 2011, 05:43:03 pm
Happy voter turnout is low? smh.

Consider the poster to posted that. Republicans perform best when most people don't vote.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Verily on August 09, 2011, 06:26:30 pm
Happy voter turnout is low? smh.

Consider the poster to posted that. Republicans perform best when most people don't vote.

In general elections. In special elections, the impact of turnout is at best ambiguous.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: krazen1211 on August 09, 2011, 06:35:42 pm
'Kinda changing topics, but if Democrats take both chambers and defeat Walker by 2013, what are the odds of a mid-decade redistricting?

You would have to redefine the word 'first'.


http://nxt.legis.state.wi.us/nxt/gateway.dll?f=templates&fn=default.htm&d=wiscon&jd=top

"At its first session after each enumeration made by the authority of the United States, the legislature shall apportion and district anew the members of the senate and assembly, according to the number of inhabitants."


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 08:00:59 pm
Now, we just have to wait :))


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2011, 08:02:13 pm
The waiting is the worst :(

People are still technically voting right now though - you get to vote so long as you were in line at 8:00 PM. This'll cause a bit of a delay in high turnout areas.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2011, 08:16:36 pm
One tiny precinct in SD-02 in; Cowles leads 94-6.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 08:19:10 pm
And 1 precinct in in the 14th

Clark 56%
Olsen 44%

But this is nothing yet.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kevinstat on August 09, 2011, 08:19:48 pm
Here's the AP results link for tomorrow today. (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_state/WI_State_Senate_0809.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

1st precinct in, in Senate District 2.  Cowles (R-incumbent*) up 33 votes to 2 (94% to 6%)!

*And yes, I know all the Republicans are incumbents in today's recalls.

Darn, sombody beat me to it.  But I have the raw vote totals.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kevinstat on August 09, 2011, 08:22:20 pm
And 1 precinct in in the 14th

Clark 56%
Olsen 44%

But this is nothing yet.

With 2 precincts in:

Clark (D) 152 (52%)
Olson (R) 140 (48%)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2011, 08:23:16 pm
I checked those two precinct's '08 results; one was tied then and the Dem is winning now; the other was won by Obama and now the Republican is leading.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 08:24:15 pm
Results here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/WI_Page_0809.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2011, 08:25:48 pm
Two precincts in SD-08 in; McCain got 57% there in '08 and Darling is getting 62%.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 08:28:34 pm
We are likely to see increased polarization. The other important thing is relative turnout.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kevinstat on August 09, 2011, 08:31:10 pm
Precincts are starting to roll in now.  Only one race (Harsdorf's) with no results yet.  Some results in every race now.  In the others, Kapanke the only Republican trailling, and only by 52% to 48%.  It is still early yet though.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 09, 2011, 08:31:23 pm
The Dems had better hope it's the Republican precincts reporting, because it's not looking good for any of them aside from Shilling.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 08:33:14 pm
The early numbers look very good. 


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kevinstat on August 09, 2011, 08:38:09 pm
Olsen-Clark race (which I'd heard called the pivitol one) starting to look like a longshot for the Dems.  Olsen up 59% to 41% with 17% in.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 08:39:08 pm
Kapanke 52 48 @ 12%

!


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 08:41:21 pm
6 more precincts in in the 14th, and it is Olsen 55%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 08:42:37 pm
Kapanke 52 48 @ 12%

!

Tied.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 09, 2011, 08:42:41 pm
Kapanke's currently underperforming his 2008 result by about 3-4%. Doesn't really matter if he leads now, because he'll undoubtedly lose La Crosse (which he did in 2008, albeit narrowly).

Edit: now he's down 8% in Crawford from 2008.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kevinstat on August 09, 2011, 08:43:03 pm
Kapanke 52 48 @ 12%

!

If Kapanke's ahead, it looks like the night will be very good to the GOP incumbents.

He's not anymore, but it's 50-50 when rounded to the nearest percent.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 08:45:27 pm
Kapanke 52 48 @ 12%

!

If Kapanke's ahead, it looks like the night will be very good to the GOP incumbents.
Kapanke is behind by about a dosen votes: but none of LaCrosse has reported yet.

He's not anymore, but it's 50-50 when rounded to the nearest percent.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 08:47:30 pm
Kapanke 52 48 @ 12%

!

If Kapanke's ahead, it looks like the night will be very good to the GOP incumbents.

He's not anymore, but it's 50-50 when rounded to the nearest percent.

I just posted that, but he'd down by 13 votes with 20% plus reporting.  Do any of the D seats look vulnerable.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kevinstat on August 09, 2011, 08:49:06 pm
Olsen down to 51% with 29% in.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 08:50:12 pm
Kapanke 52 48 @ 12%

!

If Kapanke's ahead, it looks like the night will be very good to the GOP incumbents.

He's not anymore, but it's 50-50 when rounded to the nearest percent.

I just posted that, but he'd down by 13 votes with 20% plus reporting.  Do any of the D seats look vulnerable.

Dem seats are next week


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 08:50:46 pm
Darling 71% @ 7%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kushahontas on August 09, 2011, 08:51:33 pm
fingers crossed


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kevinstat on August 09, 2011, 08:51:47 pm
Kapanke 52 48 @ 12%

!

If Kapanke's ahead, it looks like the night will be very good to the GOP incumbents.

He's not anymore, but it's 50-50 when rounded to the nearest percent.

I just posted that, but he'd down by 13 votes with 20% plus reporting.  Do any of the D seats look vulnerable.

Dem seats are next week

From what I've heard, one of them should be (the other shouldn't really and doesn't seem to be) but the Republican nominee has put her foot in her mouth a bit so the Democrat is favored there.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 09, 2011, 08:51:51 pm
Here's how it looks to me, at this point:

Cowles is safe, no surprise there.

Darling depends on what kind of margin and turnout Pasch got in Milwaukee; she's doing well in the suburban counties.

Harsdorf will win; she's outperforming her '08 numbers, when she won 56-44.

No idea on Clark/Olsen.

Hopper is doing extremely well in Winnebago; King needs the remaining precincts to go heavily for her (she needs to win there by at least 55-45).

Kapanke is toast, but that's no surprise either.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 08:54:12 pm
8th and 18th have simply not reported enough to say anything (6 and 8 precincts respectively from a single county each).


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 08:56:43 pm
Kapanke 52 48 @ 12%

!

If Kapanke's ahead, it looks like the night will be very good to the GOP incumbents.

He's not anymore, but it's 50-50 when rounded to the nearest percent.

I just posted that, but he'd down by 13 votes with 20% plus reporting.  Do any of the D seats look vulnerable.

Dem seats are next week

I know; I was wondering if any looked vulnerable.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 08:57:31 pm
Olsen's looking good: 55% w/ a lot reporting (over 1000 votes margin).


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kevinstat on August 09, 2011, 08:57:39 pm
Kapanke 52 48 @ 12%

!

If Kapanke's ahead, it looks like the night will be very good to the GOP incumbents.

He's not anymore, but it's 50-50 when rounded to the nearest percent.

I just posted that, but he'd down by 13 votes with 20% plus reporting.  Do any of the D seats look vulnerable.

Dem seats are next week

From what I've heard, one of them should be (the other shouldn't really and doesn't seem to be) but the Republican nominee has put her foot in her mouth a bit so the Democrat is favored there.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 08:59:17 pm
Olsen up 55% @ 37%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Talleyrand on August 09, 2011, 08:59:58 pm
As for the Dems, Wirch is safe but Holperin is potentially vulnerable. If things continue like they are going tonight, I don't know if the GOP will target him aggresively, but I think they will, to show their power and to take back one for the Kapanke seat which they will likely lose. Holperin is lucky to have a weak opponent, but his district narrowly leans GOP, making him probably one of the "Blue Dog" style Dems in the state.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 09:05:47 pm
Olsen's solidifying: 55% w/ 57/126 precincts reporting. But another precinct leaves Hopper w/ only 52%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 09:09:22 pm
Hopper doesn't look good. McCain got  53% in the one Dodge County precinct in his district, but he only managed 44%. Olsen, though, seems to be making it. 


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2011, 09:10:11 pm
I don't see how we can get more than two at this point.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: krazen1211 on August 09, 2011, 09:10:30 pm
Joe Petrie-Patch: Sandy Pasch gets 3,687 in Whitefish Bay, compared to 3,518 for Darling. Barrett beat Walker there 3,929 to 3,714



Hehehehe.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 09:11:28 pm
Some reporting from the 8th, including first 5 precincts from Milwaukee. Darling down to 55%.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Sam Spade on August 09, 2011, 09:14:16 pm
Just FYI

http://www.thenorthwestern.com/article/20110809/OSH0101/110809195/Hopper-takes-Fond-du-Lac-King-takes-Waupun?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE

If correct, then King has to win Winnebago by about 1,500 to 2,000, which isn't looking promising so far.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 09:14:35 pm
3 more precincts from the 8th and Darling's down to 43%: this looks like a battle of relative turnouts.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 09:16:16 pm
Shilling now up by 53%.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Sam Spade on August 09, 2011, 09:17:50 pm
Unless there's something surprising in the two counties that haven't reported yet, I think it's about time to call Olsen.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 09:18:54 pm
Unless there's something surprising in the two counties that haven't reported yet, I think it's about time to call Olsen.

Yep, looks like that.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 09:20:26 pm
AP called it for Cowles.

Olsen 55% @72%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 09:22:29 pm
Looks like Kapanke might be the only victim - Shilling's up to 54% and should end up higher.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kushahontas on August 09, 2011, 09:24:34 pm
this is what I get for putting just the tiniest bit of faith in the electorate tbh


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 09:24:48 pm
What's the hell going on the 8th and the 18th? Where are the results?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 09:25:38 pm
Darling is still down. Hooper's up a 15% reporting.  If this was the big test of the labor unions, they just failed.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Sam Spade on August 09, 2011, 09:25:49 pm
What's the hell going on the 8th and the 18th? Where are the results?

See above link with regards to 18th.  Have nothing else.  The 8th is slow because you're dealing with people who can't count.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2011, 09:27:33 pm
I don't get why the AP hasn't picked up on those Fond du Lac numbers.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 09:30:41 pm
Actually, the people, who ostensibly can't count, are reporting faster then the rest of the 8th.

A few more precincts have just reported from Winnebago: King's actually ahead by 96 votes now. On the Fond du Lac side they only have the canvass results for the 14th (Olsen's ahead), but nothing for the 18th.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 09:31:55 pm
Hooper now tied at 19%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Talleyrand on August 09, 2011, 09:32:26 pm
Kings now leads by 96 votes. Dems ahead in 3 races currently.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 09, 2011, 09:33:08 pm
Hooper now tied at 19%

(http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRRgc5LXoq5PzdbZwH28cPRcUHNqGlFgV-JAvtG_YFVNo0xPs0H)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 09:34:20 pm
Kings now leads by 96 votes. Dems ahead in 3 races currently.

Chances are, Dems will only take out Kapanke. But for the moment it looks nice in their column.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Talleyrand on August 09, 2011, 09:35:56 pm
Kings now leads by 96 votes. Dems ahead in 3 races currently.

Chances are, Dems will only take out Kapanke. But for the moment it looks nice in their column.
You are probably right. Little has been counted in 8 and 18, plus Waukesha hasn't come in much yet, so that's good for Darling.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 09:38:32 pm
Kings now leads by 96 votes. Dems ahead in 3 races currently.

Chances are, Dems will only take out Kapanke. But for the moment it looks nice in their column.
You are probably right. Little has been counted in 8 and 18, plus Waukesha hasn't come in much yet, so that's good for Darling.

Well, according to AP there are only 10 precincts left in Waukeesha and 43 precincts in Milwaukee. Though, of course, AP precinct reporting might be off.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 09:41:17 pm
9 more precincts have reported from Milwaukee and Darling's, actually, up to 44% (so far down about 2250 votes).


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 09:41:50 pm
Darling 44% @ 29, she could be in trouble.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 09, 2011, 09:42:28 pm
Maybe Walker and the Brothers Fitzgerald should have spent a little time upgrading Wisconsin's archaic election results reporting system.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2011, 09:44:23 pm
The Olsen/Clark race is past over.

King now up 52-48.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on August 09, 2011, 09:44:54 pm
Still hope here, since Hopper's is 50/50 and Darling could still go down.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 09:45:01 pm
Hopper is now behind by just over 600 votes (48% to 52%). But still now results from Fond du Lac - and if we are to believe thos previously reported, he still should make it.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 09:45:28 pm
Hopper 48% @ 23%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Mr.Phips on August 09, 2011, 09:46:04 pm
Looks like in SD-08 they are waiting to see how much Darling needs out of the suburbs.  


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 09:47:27 pm
So, mostly Milwaukee has been reporting from the 8th and Darling's down over 2500 votes. It remains to report from 26 precincts in Milwaukee and 23 precincts in the suburbs. The problem, of course, we have no clue how many votes are there in those precincts.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 09, 2011, 09:47:39 pm
Hopper isn't out of the woods yet; according to Sam's link, he won Fond du Lac by 54-46, which is 2% below his '08 margin, and he lost the one precinct in Dodge, which he won in 2008. The only question is whether King's lead in Winnebago will continue to expand.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 09, 2011, 09:48:39 pm
So, mostly Milwaukee has been reporting from the 8th and Darling's down over 2500 votes. It remains to report from 26 precincts in Milwaukee and 23 precincts in the suburbs. The problem, of course, we have no clue how many votes are there in those precincts.

A lot. Milwaukee only makes up 50% of the district's population as of the 2010 census. There will probably be a big dump of votes from the suburbs at some point; the same thing happened during the Supreme Court race.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 09:49:06 pm
Looks like in SD-08 they are waiting to see how much Darling needs out of the suburbs.  

Considering the way elections have been run in Waukeesha, I wouldn't be surprised.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2011, 09:49:24 pm
There's a black State Senator on MSNBC right now saying that one of the Milwaukee wards had 56 voters in the April Supreme Court race but had more than 1,000 (!) voters today.

I mention that she's black because low African-American turnout in the April race was what killed Kloppenberg.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Smash255 on August 09, 2011, 09:50:56 pm
Where is the info about what areas are in coming from?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 09, 2011, 09:51:15 pm
Shilling is going to beat Kapanke easily; the one county that's still out went for her by 600 votes (http://www.co.vernon.wi.gov/Election/recall.htm), but it's not reported on the AP site yet.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 09:52:19 pm
Fond du Lac has the results on its web page. Hopper is ahead by 1865 votes. So, all now depends on Winnebago.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2011, 09:53:57 pm
AP added in the Fond du Lac numbers and Hopper is only ahead by 500.

ALL of Fond du Lac.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 09:54:04 pm
W/ some Winnebago precincts reporting, Hopper is now ahead by 576 votes. 23 precincts from Winnebago is all that's remaining


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: nhmagic on August 09, 2011, 09:55:09 pm
Darling's hitting all of her targets and outperforming a bit with the strong GOP areas left to report.  She won't lose according to Charlie Sykes a GOP talk show host out of Wisconsin's twitter.  Apparently he's talking to her people.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 09:56:16 pm
Shilling is going to beat Kapanke easily; the one county that's still out went for her by 600 votes (http://www.co.vernon.wi.gov/Election/recall.htm), but it's not reported on the AP site yet.

Shilling is down to 54% @ 82%, but I think she has it.

Hopper 51%@ 79%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2011, 09:57:03 pm
The Winnebago County website has a few more precincts in than the AP does and they have King going from 53% to 54%.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 09:58:31 pm
Well, Darling should make it: but why aren't they counting? If it all comes again to Waukeesha reporting last (and finding enough votes to resolve the election), somebody in the county government should be run out of the state.

No, I am not suggesting cheating: I am suggesting incompetence.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Mr.Phips on August 09, 2011, 09:59:30 pm
King should win in SD-18.  All of Fon Du Loc is reported and Hopper is only up by 500 votes.  King will make that up in Winnebago.  


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: nhmagic on August 09, 2011, 10:01:25 pm
Well, Darling should make it: but why aren't they counting? If it all comes again to Waukeesha reporting last (and finding enough votes to resolve the election), somebody in the county government should be run out of the state.

No, I am not suggesting cheating: I am suggesting incompetence.
The clerk is incompetent apparently.  Even the GOP websites are expecting Waukesha to come in last like with the Prosser thing.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 10:04:39 pm
Hopper 51% @ 83%

Olsen finally declared the winner.  :)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 10:05:18 pm
With 18 Winnebago precincts all that's left, Hopper is ahead by 534 votes. This might drag.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 09, 2011, 10:06:49 pm
King pulls ahead by 137 votes; 14 precincts left.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Talleyrand on August 09, 2011, 10:07:32 pm
With 18 Winnebago precincts all that's left, Hopper is ahead by 534 votes. This might drag.

With 14 more to go, King is ahead by less than 200, so maybe a recount?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 10:07:59 pm
14 precincts left in Winnebago and King's ahead by 137 votes. Dems might have 2.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 10:08:41 pm
With 18 Winnebago precincts all that's left, Hopper is ahead by 534 votes. This might drag.

With 14 more to go, King is ahead by less than 200, so maybe a recount?

Actually, if the rest of Winnebago goes as what we've seen, King might make it without recount. Though, of course, the early Winnebago precicnts went for Hopper.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 10:09:27 pm
King 50% @ 87%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Talleyrand on August 09, 2011, 10:09:49 pm
Jennifer Shilling wins according to AP. No surprise.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: nhmagic on August 09, 2011, 10:10:01 pm
I know you shouldnt read too much into these elections, but the fact that the GOP is managing to do as well as they (especially with the tv drama of the angry left and protesting) are, should be an indication of how strong the GOP is in the state compared to even 10 years ago.  It bodes well for 2012.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: mondale84 on August 09, 2011, 10:10:54 pm
I know you shouldnt read too much into these elections, but the fact that the GOP is managing to do as well as they (especially with the tv drama of the angry left and protesting) are, should be an indication of how strong the GOP is in the state compared to even 10 years ago.  It bodes well for 2012.

With low turnout and $30 million spent, mostly from shadow right-wing groups, we shouldn't be surprised....


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 10:11:21 pm
Shilling's been declared winner. W/ quite a bit yet to go she's at 55%.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2011, 10:12:08 pm
I know you shouldnt read too much into these elections, but the fact that the GOP is managing to do as well as they (especially with the tv drama of the angry left and protesting) are, should be an indication of how strong the GOP is in the state compared to even 10 years ago.  It bodes well for 2012.

With low turnout and $30 million spent, mostly from shadow right-wing groups, we shouldn't be surprised....

These are also all Republican districts with the exception of SD-32...


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: nhmagic on August 09, 2011, 10:12:27 pm
With 18 Winnebago precincts all that's left, Hopper is ahead by 534 votes. This might drag.

With 14 more to go, King is ahead by less than 200, so maybe a recount?

Actually, if the rest of Winnebago goes as what we've seen, King might make it without recount. Though, of course, the early Winnebago precicnts went for Hopper.
If there is a recount it will go to King anyways...


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 10:13:38 pm
Darling 45%  @  43%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 10:13:50 pm
2 more precincts from Milwaukee, and Darling has actually cut her opponent's lead to under 2500. She should make it.

But just imagine if Pasch is still ahead when all but Waukeesha has reported, and the last batch of Waukeesha voters overturns that.

And, of course, the county clerk is insisting that she is following the same reporting procedure that has served her so well in April.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: nhmagic on August 09, 2011, 10:15:12 pm
I know you shouldnt read too much into these elections, but the fact that the GOP is managing to do as well as they (especially with the tv drama of the angry left and protesting) are, should be an indication of how strong the GOP is in the state compared to even 10 years ago.  It bodes well for 2012.

With low turnout and $30 million spent, mostly from shadow right-wing groups, we shouldn't be surprised....
Yes losers always blame the money from "shadowy" groups.  We did in 08.  You did in 10 and you will again in 12 :P.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2011, 10:15:36 pm
This dude on MSNBC keeps claiming that Oshkosh hasn't reported yet which if true bodes very well for King.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 10:15:52 pm
A biggish dump from Milwaukee (and couple precincts from Ozaukee as well): Pasch's lead is up to almost 5000 votes. 15 precincts from Milwaukee and 20 precincts from the suburbs (including 10 from Waukeesha) left.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 09, 2011, 10:17:38 pm
Washington County results (http://www.co.washington.wi.us/uploads/docs/CLK_SOVCResults08-09-11-1.pdf) (all but one precinct; 7,955 Darling, 2,877 Pasch). I don't see Pasch recovering from that kind of margin.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2011, 10:18:04 pm
The rest of Washington County just came in, Pasch is still up 51-49.

15 precincts left in Milwaukee; 15 precincts left in the suburbs.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2011, 10:18:58 pm
Luther Olsen ended up only winning 52-48.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 10:19:52 pm
Yep 15 in Milwaukee and 15 in the suburubs (Ozaukee has also reported one of those that had been remaining), but Pasch's lead is under 1000 votes now. And those 10 Waukeesha precincts should take Darling over.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: mondale84 on August 09, 2011, 10:20:02 pm
I know you shouldnt read too much into these elections, but the fact that the GOP is managing to do as well as they (especially with the tv drama of the angry left and protesting) are, should be an indication of how strong the GOP is in the state compared to even 10 years ago.  It bodes well for 2012.

With low turnout and $30 million spent, mostly from shadow right-wing groups, we shouldn't be surprised....
Yes losers always blame the money from "shadowy" groups.  We did in 08.  You did in 10 and you will again in 12 :P.

Except WE didn't have shadow groups in 08


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 10:21:53 pm
Darling 49% @ 63%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Miles on August 09, 2011, 10:22:22 pm
I know you shouldnt read too much into these elections, but the fact that the GOP is managing to do as well as they (especially with the tv drama of the angry left and protesting) are, should be an indication of how strong the GOP is in the state compared to even 10 years ago.  It bodes well for 2012.

With low turnout and $30 million spent, mostly from shadow right-wing groups, we shouldn't be surprised....
Yes losers always blame the money from "shadowy" groups.  We did in 08.  You did in 10 and you will again in 12 :P.

Can you stop with all this 2012 stuff!!!?

A year is an eternity in politics


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 10:23:16 pm
I guess, Republicans will hold majority by a whisker: the size of that whisker will be determined by county clerk Nikolaus doing her algebra.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Smash255 on August 09, 2011, 10:23:31 pm
Luther Olsen ended up only winning 52-48.

Probably why they took forever to call it, what was left was very Democratic, though obviously not enough.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 09, 2011, 10:30:16 pm
All right, I give up, I'm going to bed while assuming that King and Darling win.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: nhmagic on August 09, 2011, 10:30:33 pm
The Hopper race wouldnt be as close as it is if it weren't for him having an affair with a 25 year old aide.  He should be thrown out anyways and I would be ok as long as Darling pulls through.  BTW, they're all smiles in the Darling war room.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Mr.Phips on August 09, 2011, 10:31:40 pm
If the final precincts in SD-08 vote the way the counted precincts vote, Darling stands to pick up a net of just 26 votes.  If Darling mysteriously pulls into the lead, if I were Pasch, I would seriously talk to my lawyers as soon as possible.  


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 10:33:18 pm
All right, I give up, I'm going to bed while assuming that King and Darling win.

I would make neither assumption.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: nhmagic on August 09, 2011, 10:33:55 pm
Journal Sentinel is dragging out the results apparently (according to Sykes).


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Miles on August 09, 2011, 10:35:04 pm
105/108 precincts- King up 51-49.

King has almost a 1200-vote edge with 97% in.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 10:35:32 pm
King 51% @ 97%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: nhmagic on August 09, 2011, 10:35:43 pm
If the final precincts in SD-08 vote the way the counted precincts vote, Darling stands to pick up a net of just 26 votes.  If Darling mysteriously pulls into the lead, if I were Pasch, I would seriously talk to my lawyers as soon as possible.  

This is a serious question - why would her pulling into the lead with Waukesha still out be a legal issue - its one of her strongholds?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 10:36:07 pm
If the final precincts in SD-08 vote the way the counted precincts vote, Darling stands to pick up a net of just 26 votes.  If Darling mysteriously pulls into the lead, if I were Pasch, I would seriously talk to my lawyers as soon as possible.  

Suburban precincts seem to be simply bigger. But, of course, Waukeesha is making itself a laughing stock once again.

1 more precinct has just reported in Winnebago: suddenly King is quite a bit ahead.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: nhmagic on August 09, 2011, 10:38:30 pm
Waukesha's about to report.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 10:39:11 pm
Darling 48% @ 67%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 10:39:43 pm

This is a serious question - why would her pulling into the lead with Waukesha still out be a legal issue - its one of her strongholds?

Well, there are 10/11 precincts left in Waukeesha, 5/11 in Ozaukee and 15/51 in Milwaukee. Milwaukee isn't her stronghold, is it?

However, the main problem seems to be that Waukeesha has a particularly incompetent county clerk who is insisting on using extremely strange reporting procedures.



Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kevinstat on August 09, 2011, 10:39:59 pm
I guess, Republicans will hold majority by a whisker: the size of that whisker will be determined by county clerk Nikolaus doing her algebra.

Well, the 36 Milliwakee County precincts in so far gave Pasch a 212-vote margin per precinct, while the 7 precincts in Ozaukee and Waukesha counties gave Darling a slightly higher 241-vote margin per precinct (but lower in Waukesha where there are more precincts left), and exactly half the remaining precincts out (as I decided to start writing this message) are in each group, but Pasch has an 887-vote margin, so I think she might actually have an edge, although I don't know where the outstanding precincts in each county are from.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: nhmagic on August 09, 2011, 10:42:42 pm
According to Sykes Darling has an unreported margin of 5000 votes in Waukesha - JS has been sitting on it.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: HST1948 on August 09, 2011, 10:43:40 pm
Jessica King was just declared the winner in 18.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 10:43:54 pm
Seems like Darling is to pick another 600 votes from just 1 precinct in Ozaukee.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Miles on August 09, 2011, 10:44:30 pm
Jessica King was just declared the winner.

'Praise the Lord!


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kevinstat on August 09, 2011, 10:45:03 pm
According to Sykes Darling has an unreported margin of 5000 votes in Waukesha - JS has been sitting on it.

There were only 597 votes cast total in the one of 11 (so one would think about 1/11) precincts in Waukesha, so I find that doubtful.  Of course, that precinct could have been a small township.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 10:45:30 pm
So, it seems, Darling should make it: but, in the end, there also those 12 precincts left in Milwaukee.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: nhmagic on August 09, 2011, 10:46:04 pm
Sykes is now reporting that Darling should win 52 to Pasch's 48 if current trends hold.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 10:46:54 pm
According to Sykes Darling has an unreported margin of 5000 votes in Waukesha - JS has been sitting on it.

There were only 597 votes cast total in the one of 11 (so one would think about 1/11) precincts in Waukesha, so I find that doubtful.  Of course, that precinct could have been a small township.

It is not unlikely. Waukeesha part of the district has about 32000 residents, according to the census. So, w/ about 3000 residents per precinct, it is not unlikely that there will be closer to 1000 votes.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 10:48:33 pm
With 10 Waukeesha, 4 Ozaukee and 12 Milwaukee precincts left, Pasch's ahead by 1111 votes.

I guess, Darling should indeed make it: assuming no surprises from Milwaukee.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Lief 🐋 on August 09, 2011, 10:49:38 pm
Hopefully the old Milwaukee machine still has enough juice in it to get us over the hump. The Republicans are obviously cheating in Waukeesha, let's hope the Dems don't drop the ball doing their part.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 10:50:30 pm
All of the 18th has reported. King won by around 1250 votes: should be outside the recount territory.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 10:51:08 pm
Darling 49% @ 68%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 10:52:54 pm
In the end, Kapanke is loosing badly. With all that's left being 12 precincts in La Crosse, he is down 44% to 56%. So, it may even be bigger than that.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: nhmagic on August 09, 2011, 10:56:36 pm
Hopefully the old Milwaukee machine still has enough juice in it to get us over the hump. The Republicans are obviously cheating in Waukeesha, let's hope the Dems don't drop the ball doing their part.
Obviously cheating - youre watching those idiots on MSNBC.  Waukesha went 62% for McCain over Obama in 2008, 71% for Walker in 2010 and 67% for Bush in 2004.  It's a blood red county.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 09, 2011, 10:57:19 pm
The 14 out of 15 precincts left (http://www.waukeshacounty.gov/uploadedFiles/Media/PDF/Elected_Officials/County_Clerk/Election_Results/20110809_recall.pdf) in Waukesha are hyper GOP, and yes, the one reported (in Butler) is a tiny precinct. I know from my Wisconsin mapping.  Menonomee Falls is the hometown of Sessenbrener (sp), and very, very red, redder than the county as a whole. Game over.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 10:58:39 pm
The 14 out of 15 precincts left (http://www.waukeshacounty.gov/uploadedFiles/Media/PDF/Elected_Officials/County_Clerk/Election_Results/20110809_recall.pdf) in Waukesha are hyper GOP, and yes, the one reported (in Butler) is a tiny precinct. I know from my Wisconsin mapping.  Game over.


Well, we don't know what's left in Milwaukee, do we?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Lief 🐋 on August 09, 2011, 10:58:55 pm
Hopefully the old Milwaukee machine still has enough juice in it to get us over the hump. The Republicans are obviously cheating in Waukeesha, let's hope the Dems don't drop the ball doing their part.
Obviously cheating - youre watching those idiots on MSNBC.  Waukesha went 62% for McCain over Obama in 2008, 71% for Walker in 2010 and 67% for Bush in 2004.  It's a blood red county.

No sir, I don't own a television.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on August 09, 2011, 10:59:42 pm
Kathy Nickolaus has just said there will be 'at least another hour' before Waukesha shoots its load without explaining why.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 10:59:55 pm
The 14 out of 15 precincts left (http://www.waukeshacounty.gov/uploadedFiles/Media/PDF/Elected_Officials/County_Clerk/Election_Results/20110809_recall.pdf) in Waukesha are hyper GOP, and yes, the one reported (in Butler) is a tiny precinct. I know from my Wisconsin mapping.  Game over.


The other interesting thing: Nikolaus has been saying she is not posting town-by-town results and I can't find the link on her page. But here is the file.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Snowguy716 on August 09, 2011, 11:03:33 pm
Apparently the Waukesha numbers are in.. big pickup for the GOP


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Vice President PiT on August 09, 2011, 11:03:45 pm
     I really wish that Waukesha would get someone more competent. The de rigeur suspense is such a pain.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 11:04:34 pm
Butler has 1841 residents, according to the census.  Menomonee Falls has 30,183 residents. It went 59.4% McCain. So it will be a huge tally for Darling - the question is, what's left in Milwaukee.

Also, it looks like another 500 votes is about to be added to Darling's tally from Ozaukee. Yeah, she should make it.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on August 09, 2011, 11:05:13 pm
That Waukesha clerk needs to be indicted.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: nhmagic on August 09, 2011, 11:08:18 pm
Some people are saying she's just dedicated, not so much incompetent.  They are also saying its a tactic so that dems can't miraculously find votes in Milwaukee at the last minute.

I think she's just darn slow.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Snowguy716 on August 09, 2011, 11:08:59 pm
Rumors and rumors of rumors...

and still no official Waukesha numbers.  I seriously smell fraud/incompetence which go hand in hand.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Snowguy716 on August 09, 2011, 11:10:00 pm
Some people are saying she's just dedicated, not so much incompetent.  They are also saying its a tactic so that dems can't miraculously find votes in Milwaukee at the last minute.

I think she's just darn slow.
Perhaps you're right.  During the supreme court vote, she seemed really nervous.  Not the kind of "i did something wrong and I know it" nervous.. but the "ooh sh**t... all the cameras" kind.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 11:10:58 pm
Some people are saying she's just dedicated, not so much incompetent.  They are also saying its a tactic so that dems can't miraculously find votes in Milwaukee at the last minute.

I think she's just darn slow.

She is so dedicated, she has invented her own results reporting procedure, that happens to be surprisingly untransparent.

Anyway, she's just reported 10/11 precincts. Darling is ahead by about 2600 votes, which will become about 3000 when that Ozaukee precinct is entered. At which point, it will be 3 Ozaukee, 1 Waukeesha and 12 Milwaukee precincts to go. Darling should make to 51% in the end.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Snowguy716 on August 09, 2011, 11:11:27 pm
52/48 Darling...
She's ahead by ~2600 votes.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 11:11:53 pm
Perhaps you're right.  During the supreme court vote, she seemed really nervous.  Not the kind of "i did something wrong and I know it" nervous.. but the "ooh sh**t... all the cameras" kind.
[/quote]

That is, incompetent nervous. Yeah, I don't think she is cheating: she just has no clue what she's doing.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 11:12:12 pm
Darling 52% @ 79%  I wouldn't call it yet.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Kevinstat on August 09, 2011, 11:12:21 pm
With 9 of the 10 outstanding precincts in Waukesha County having come in, Darling now up by 2,628 votes.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 09, 2011, 11:12:54 pm
52/48 Darling...



Because Waukesha did its vote dump (http://www.waukeshacounty.gov/uploadedFiles/Media/PDF/Elected_Officials/County_Clerk/Election_Results/20110809_recall.pdf). Supposedly 17 precincts still out. So yes, it might be tight.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Snowguy716 on August 09, 2011, 11:14:06 pm
52/48 Darling...



Because Waukesha did its vote dump (http://www.waukeshacounty.gov/uploadedFiles/Media/PDF/Elected_Officials/County_Clerk/Election_Results/20110809_recall.pdf).
I was aware :P


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Snowguy716 on August 09, 2011, 11:14:49 pm
I wouldn't call this turkey cooked, but I'd say she's about done.  And it will be in Darling's favor.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 11:17:55 pm
Darling 53% @ 80%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 09, 2011, 11:21:03 pm
I wouldn't call this turkey cooked, but I'd say she's about done.  And it will be in Darling's favor.

Darling bounced up again, up now by 3,100 votes at 53%.  The Dem percentages in the north shore suburbs of Milwaukee county vary some, so whether it is skin tight, or Darling winning by about 1,500, depends on where the Milwaukee county precincts that have been counted came from.

How many precincts are out in Milwaukee County?  Is it only 10?  If so, that means one in Waukesha, and 4 still out in Ozaukee. And that makes it a very tall order for the Dem.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Lief 🐋 on August 09, 2011, 11:22:40 pm
BREAKING: Wisconsin Democratic Party has accused Nickolaus of "tampering" with votes.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 09, 2011, 11:24:45 pm
BREAKING: Wisconsin Democratic Party has accused Nickolaus of "tampering" with votes.

Milwaukee county now has more uncounted precincts than Waukesha. Vote fraud in Milwaukee!  Do you take this stuff seriously Lief?  :)

By the way, Darling's performance matches the one she had in 2008 - everywhere. There are no anomalies.

One more precinct came in (15 still out, including the one in Waukesha), and Darling's margin increase t0 3,800.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 11:25:49 pm
BREAKING: Wisconsin Democratic Party has accused Nickolaus of "tampering" with votes.

BREAKING:  The Democratic Party just realized how badly they are down.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TJ in Wisco on August 09, 2011, 11:28:32 pm
If we assume the remaining precincts in Millwaukee County vote with proportionally the same number of votes and the same margin as the Millwaukee County precincts as a whole, this should give Pasch an additional 2613 vote margin. But Darling is up by 3108 and there are 4 precincts still out in Waukesha and Ozaukee Counties. I'd say at the moment by this set of assumptions, the best we can do without specific information about which precincts are out, I think Darling will likely win.

Of course, I have no idea where in Millwaukee County these precincts are and that changes everything.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 09, 2011, 11:30:45 pm
If we assume the remaining precincts in Millwaukee County vote with proportionally the same number of votes and the same margin as the Millwaukee County precincts as a whole, this should give Pasch an additional 2613 vote margin. But Darling is up by 3108 and there are 4 precincts still out in Waukesha and Ozaukee Counties. I'd say at the moment by this set of assumptions, the best we can do without specific information about which precincts are out, I think Darling will likely win.

Of course, I have no idea where in Millwaukee County these precincts are and that changes everything.

They are more GOP than the county as a whole - upper middle class north shore suburbs where the elite used to live, and many still live, that used to be GOP, but went Dem (think Montco county in PA), but are not as Dem as the county as a whole yet. There might be more votes per precinct however than the county as a whole. They currently by the way are in Sessenbrener's CD, but were dumped in the redistricting since they were the most Dem available territory around in which the Milwaukee CD could expand.  


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Lief 🐋 on August 09, 2011, 11:31:10 pm
BREAKING: Wisconsin Democratic Party has accused Nickolaus of "tampering" with votes.

Milwaukee county now has more uncounted precincts than Waukesha. Vote fraud in Milwaukee!  Do you take this stuff seriously Lief?  :)

I just report the stuff, my good friend. I leave it up to the dear reader to decide the veracity of any claims I make or claims of third parties I report.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 09, 2011, 11:32:04 pm
BREAKING: Wisconsin Democratic Party has accused Nickolaus of "tampering" with votes.

Milwaukee county now has more uncounted precincts than Waukesha. Vote fraud in Milwaukee!  Do you take this stuff seriously Lief?  :)

I just report the stuff, my good friend. I leave it up to the dear reader to decide the veracity of any claims I make or claims of third parties I report.

OK.  Given who you are, I was not sure what your posture was. :P


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TJ in Wisco on August 09, 2011, 11:34:42 pm
If we assume the remaining precincts in Millwaukee County vote with proportionally the same number of votes and the same margin as the Millwaukee County precincts as a whole, this should give Pasch an additional 2613 vote margin. But Darling is up by 3108 and there are 4 precincts still out in Waukesha and Ozaukee Counties. I'd say at the moment by this set of assumptions, the best we can do without specific information about which precincts are out, I think Darling will likely win.

Of course, I have no idea where in Millwaukee County these precincts are and that changes everything.

They are more GOP than the county as a whole - upper middle class north shore suburbs where the elite used to live, and many still live, that used to by GOP, but went Dem, but are not as Dem as the county as a whole yet. There might be more votes per precinct however than the county as a whole.

I meant the other 39 Millwaukee County precincts in the senate district that have already reported, not the entire county.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Lief 🐋 on August 09, 2011, 11:35:11 pm
here's a link for those scalawags what doubt my journalistic integrity: http://www.wisdems.org/news/press/view/2011-08-waukesha-county-tampering


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Shilly on August 09, 2011, 11:36:48 pm
Rumor has it that Pasch only made up 1,000 votes from the rest of Milwaukee.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 09, 2011, 11:38:11 pm
If we assume the remaining precincts in Millwaukee County vote with proportionally the same number of votes and the same margin as the Millwaukee County precincts as a whole, this should give Pasch an additional 2613 vote margin. But Darling is up by 3108 and there are 4 precincts still out in Waukesha and Ozaukee Counties. I'd say at the moment by this set of assumptions, the best we can do without specific information about which precincts are out, I think Darling will likely win.

Of course, I have no idea where in Millwaukee County these precincts are and that changes everything.

They are more GOP than the county as a whole - upper middle class north shore suburbs where the elite used to live, and many still live, that used to by GOP, but went Dem, but are not as Dem as the county as a whole yet. There might be more votes per precinct however than the county as a whole.

I meant the other 39 Millwaukee County precincts in the senate district that have already reported, not the entire county.

Oh, OK. Given that - game over. There is not that much variation in the north shore suburbs in turnout, and I am just hearing on the radio now that the Milwaukee County precincts still out are more GOP friendly than the ones that have been counted. I wish I knew which burbs have reported.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 11:39:24 pm
BREAKING: Wisconsin Democratic Party has accused Nickolaus of "tampering" with votes.

Milwaukee county now has more uncounted precincts than Waukesha. Vote fraud in Milwaukee!  Do you take this stuff seriously Lief?  :)

By the way, Darling's performance matches the one she had in 2008 - everywhere. There are no anomalies.

One more precinct came in (15 still out, including the one in Waukesha), and Darling's margin increase t0 3,800.

Lief thinks that government workers are popular and they have to do is protest and people will love them, too.

The Democrats just challenged the most far right labor position in the US, in a fairly liberal state, and it is starting to look like they lost.  It certainly was not the expected victory.  The world is changing.

Darline 53% @ 82%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 09, 2011, 11:40:57 pm
Rumor has it that Pasch only made up 1,000 votes from the rest of Milwaukee.

And still 1 precinct left Waukesha, 2 in Ozaukee. 12 are uncounted in Milwaukee, which allegedly only generated a 1,000 margin for the Dem. How one knows that I don't know.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TJ in Wisco on August 09, 2011, 11:42:51 pm
It's sort of funny because I am watching this on MSNBC and they are really hammering at Waukesha County for not reporting results when 12/15 remaining precincts are from Millwaukee County and only one is from Waukesha.

As someone who is capable of looking at actual numbers it's sort of painful to watch.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 11:45:46 pm
It's sort of funny because I am watching this on MSNBC and they are really hammering at Waukesha County for not reporting results when 12/15 remaining precincts are from Millwaukee County and only one is from Waukesha.

As someone who is capable of looking at actual numbers it's sort of painful to watch.

They are just a bit behind. But the truth is, Milwaukee was ahead of the rest of the district most of the night.

The interesting thing is, I have a suspicion, Nikolaus has been overuled. She has said she is not reporting by town on the night of the election, but there is reporting by precinct, in fact. But there is no link to this from her website (at least, originally there was not). And most of the precincts were reported right after she said it will take another hour. Funny.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 09, 2011, 11:46:31 pm
It's sort of funny because I am watching this on MSNBC and they are really hammering at Waukesha County for not reporting results when 12/15 remaining precincts are from Millwaukee County and only one is from Waukesha.

As someone who is capable of looking at actual numbers it's sort of painful to watch.

They probably don't know that, and are just repeating the Dem talking points. And they certainly don't know how to detect anomalies. In any event, it may be around a 3,000 vote margin, and that would mean that the voters in Waukesha really voted close to even, but then had their votes changed by the clerk or something to the normal 2-1 GOP margin. Pathetic talking heads.  Pathetic.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 09, 2011, 11:48:34 pm
It's sort of funny because I am watching this on MSNBC and they are really hammering at Waukesha County for not reporting results when 12/15 remaining precincts are from Millwaukee County and only one is from Waukesha.

As someone who is capable of looking at actual numbers it's sort of painful to watch.

They are just a bit behind. But the truth is, Milwaukee was ahead of the rest of the district most of the night.

The interesting thing is, I have a suspicion, Nikolaus has been overuled. She has said she is not reporting by town on the night of the election, but there is reporting by precinct, in fact. But there is no link to this from her website (at least, originally there was not). And most of the precincts were reported right after she said it will take another hour. Funny.

My link I put up 45 minutes ago is from her website actually. So there goes that theory!  :) On the other hand, I can't find anything from Milwaukee County. Very suspicious!  :P


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TJ in Wisco on August 09, 2011, 11:49:02 pm
They spent about two hours talking about how Nikolaus "found" 14,000 votes in the supreme court election but never even mentioned once that the initial count had zero votes in the city of Brookfield. To me that seems like a critical piece of information.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 09, 2011, 11:49:14 pm
Correct me if I'm wrong, but a loss for the Democrats in this race effectively ends their chance of taking the majority, correct?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 09, 2011, 11:50:42 pm
The two precincts out in Ozaukee are from "Mechwan," a GOP town. So says Darling herself. Darling says she is waiting for a concession call from her opponent before declaring victory.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 09, 2011, 11:51:59 pm
Correct me if I'm wrong, but a loss for the Democrats in this race effectively ends their chance of taking the majority, correct?

Correct.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 09, 2011, 11:53:07 pm
I just got in from my own successful election to Vice Chairman of the Philadelphia Young Republicans. I can't wait to turn on my MSNBC recording!


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ag on August 09, 2011, 11:53:13 pm
Correct me if I'm wrong, but a loss for the Democrats in this race effectively ends their chance of taking the majority, correct?

yes, of course.  Unless they persuade one of the Republicans to switch, they'd have to wait till early 2012


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on August 09, 2011, 11:54:03 pm
Of course, one of the remaining Republicans is a RINO who stood against Walker's union proposal.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 09, 2011, 11:54:34 pm
I just got in from my own successful election to Vice Chairman of the Philadelphia Young Republicans. I can't wait to turn on my MSNBC recording!

Congratulations!


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on August 09, 2011, 11:54:39 pm
Correct me if I'm wrong, but a loss for the Democrats in this race effectively ends their chance of taking the majority, correct?

Right - though doesn't this place a lot of power in the hands of the one GOP Senator who voted against Walker's bill?

I just got in from my own successful election to Vice Chairman of the Philadelphia Young Republicans. I can't wait to turn on my MSNBC recording!

Congrats on the first part.  Never heard anyone that excited about watching MSNBC though :)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TJ in Wisco on August 09, 2011, 11:54:48 pm
The two precincts out in Ozaukee are from "Mechwan," a GOP town. So says Darling herself. Darling says she is waiting for a concession call from her opponent before declaring victory.

That is good for Darling as Miquon voted 3.8% better for McCain than the portion of Ozaukee County in this senate district did overall, though only a marginal difference.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 09, 2011, 11:55:46 pm
They spent about two hours talking about how Nikolaus "found" 14,000 votes in the supreme court election but never even mentioned once that the initial count had zero votes in the city of Brookfield. To me that seems like a critical piece of information.

You think?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 09, 2011, 11:56:28 pm
The two precincts out in Ozaukee are from "Mechwan," a GOP town. So says Darling herself. Darling says she is waiting for a concession call from her opponent before declaring victory.

That is good for Darling as Miquon voted 3.8% better for McCain than the portion of Ozaukee County in this senate district did overall, though only a marginal difference.

What was the McCain margin?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 09, 2011, 11:57:52 pm
I just got in from my own successful election to Vice Chairman of the Philadelphia Young Republicans. I can't wait to turn on my MSNBC recording!

Congratulations!

Congratulations, Phil.  :)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TJ in Wisco on August 09, 2011, 11:58:20 pm
59.7-39.3 in Miquon

But Darling has overperformed McCain substantially pretty much everywhere so far.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 09, 2011, 11:59:54 pm
One more precinct came in, and Darling now up by 4,600 votes. It was the last precinct from Waukesha - 1351(R) to 605 (D).


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TJ in Wisco on August 10, 2011, 12:00:30 am
The best place I have to compare to right now is the Washington County part of the senate seat because it's the only one where we have all of the precincts and McCain won it 64.9-33.8.

Darling won it 73-27.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 10, 2011, 12:01:59 am
Darling 54% @ 83%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TJ in Wisco on August 10, 2011, 12:04:57 am
...now all of Waukesha is in. McCain won the part in this senate seat 59.2-39.4

Darling won it 66-34.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 10, 2011, 12:06:59 am
The best place I have to compare to right now is the Washington County part of the senate seat because it's the only one where we have all of the precincts and McCain won it 64.9-33.8.

Darling won it 73-27.

This time in Waukesha, it was Darling 9,449 to 4,767.  Somebody said she carried the county by 5,000 last time, so on a much lower turnout presumably (was it), her percentage should be up there too.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Invisible Obama on August 10, 2011, 12:09:10 am
2 Republican Senators recalled is a pretty good win, recalls are not a feat that is achieved with simplicity, so hard work paid off.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 10, 2011, 12:09:24 am
...now all of Waukesha is in. McCain won the part in this senate seat 59.2-39.4

Darling won it 66-34.

So what was the McCain percentage in the Milwaukee County part of the district?  With that, we will know about all we need to know.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 10, 2011, 12:11:27 am
Darling 54% @ 84%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TJ in Wisco on August 10, 2011, 12:14:31 am
Obama carried the Millwaukee County portion 65.2-33.7, not much different from the numbers in this election at all.

Now, with a 5,013 vote lead for Darling (and my projection of ~2600 additional margin for Pasch in Millwaukee County), the remaining precincts would need to either be much larger than average or waaaayyyy for Democratic than the ones reported for Pasch to win. I believe this is over barring something crazy happening.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 10, 2011, 12:15:25 am
2 Republican Senators recalled is a pretty good win, recalls are not a feat that is achieved with simplicity, so hard work paid off.

Not on this issue, in this state, and when there was a realistic chance of taking down five candidates.  


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Vice President PiT on August 10, 2011, 12:17:10 am
2 Republican Senators recalled is a pretty good win, recalls are not a feat that is achieved with simplicity, so hard work paid off.

     Kapanke was far to the right of his district & Hopper was embattled by scandal. To not knock off both of them would have been a complete failure for the Democrats.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TJ in Wisco on August 10, 2011, 12:18:27 am
Let the debating framing and political spin begin.... ;)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Invisible Obama on August 10, 2011, 12:21:53 am
Not on this issue, in this state, and when there was a realistic chance of taking down five candidates.

These are all districts Republicans managed to win in 2008, which was a good year for Democrats. All spin aside, Democrats gained overall.

2 Republican Senators recalled is a pretty good win, recalls are not a feat that is achieved with simplicity, so hard work paid off. Kapanke was far to the right of his district & Hopper was embattled by scandal. To not knock off both of them would have been a complete failure for the Democrats.

And we all know that even those circumstances can sometimes not guarantee a win. Both are good wins.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 10, 2011, 12:23:49 am
Obama carried the Millwaukee County portion 65.2-33.7, not much different from the numbers in this election at all.

Now, with a 5,013 vote lead for Darling (and my projection of ~2600 additional margin for Pasch in Millwaukee County), the remaining precincts would need to either be much larger than average or waaaayyyy for Democratic than the ones reported for Pasch to win. I believe this is over barring something crazy happening.

That fits in with the comment/rumor from the Darling campaign that the remaining precincts in Milwaukee County are more GOP than what has been counted, since Darling has run ahead of McCain everywhere else by another 5% or so. So if that rumor is true, it won't be very close really a margin, perhaps by about 4,000 votes or so as a guess.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 10, 2011, 12:25:07 am
Not on this issue, in this state, and when there was a realistic chance of taking down five candidates.

These are all districts Republicans managed to win in 2008, which was a good year for Democrats. All spin aside, Democrats gained overall.

2 Republican Senators recalled is a pretty good win, recalls are not a feat that is achieved with simplicity, so hard work paid off. Kapanke was far to the right of his district & Hopper was embattled by scandal. To not knock off both of them would have been a complete failure for the Democrats.

And we all know that even those circumstances can sometimes not guarantee a win. Both are good wins.


I guess everyone is happy then. Congratulations!  :)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TJ in Wisco on August 10, 2011, 12:26:06 am
The AP has called it for Darling (or at least has placed a check mark next to her name on their results website).


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 10, 2011, 12:26:45 am
Over. MSNBC and the AP call it. Lovely.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 10, 2011, 12:30:12 am
This race may typify a changing political attitude in the US.  It is not good news for Obama, short term, or the Democrats, long term.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Lief 🐋 on August 10, 2011, 12:32:03 am
This race may typify a changing political attitude in the US.  It is not good news for Obama, short term, or the Democrats, long term.

lol


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Tender Branson on August 10, 2011, 12:36:00 am
Looks like PPP and Magellan did pretty well again.

The results are about what I expected, I thought Democrats would win 2 of them.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Torie on August 10, 2011, 12:38:52 am
Probably the most Dem town in the district in Milwaukee County, Shorewood, has all been counted (http://www.villageofshorewood.org/vertical/Sites/{5230848F-4209-4497-9E80-89EC90BA64AE}/uploads/Results_spreadsheet(1).pdf) by the way. Pasch got 73% of the vote. And it is bigger than most of the villages.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on August 10, 2011, 12:41:18 am
This race may typify a changing political attitude in the US.  It is not good news for Obama, short term, or the Democrats, long term.

lol

Is there some type of ridiculous hackery or self-parody goldmine? That quote belongs there if so.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Scott on August 10, 2011, 12:46:43 am
What does this say about the 2012 elections?  Democrats got 2/3 of the way there, but still did not win.  I'm getting mixed messages.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: AUH2O Libertarian on August 10, 2011, 12:49:34 am
According to the Milwaukee Sentinel Journal, Democrats and unions outspent Republican groups 2 to 1 and still couldn't take control of the senate only winning a D+8 district and a race against an adulterer.  Imagine how many teacher retirements could have been funded by the money unions dumped into these races.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TJ in Wisco on August 10, 2011, 12:53:49 am
I don't really want to join the cesspool of endless partisan spin, but do want to make one comment about the effects of this result.

The Democrats and labor unions have been publically raking Scott Walker and the Wisconsin Republicans over the coals for most of this year about how the people were going to rise up and strike Walker and his union-bashing policies down. Maybe its because I am usually surrounded by far more liberals than conservatives or maybe it's that a showdown over public employee unions is for me a political nighmare--- I am a strongly conservative Republican who is generally pro-labor, but I have thought for some time that this would be the Republican Party's "day of reckoning" of sorts and it would go down in flames.

But it wasn't. The Democrats picked up a couple seats, one in a district Obama won comfortably and the other by a razor thin margin. But there was no tsunami, no backlash, just an ossification of our current political lines. In a concrete sense, this only effects the control over the Wisconsin State Senate; but in a larger sense shows that the tide of labor power is not very high and a shadow of its former self. To me this is more The Boy Who Cried Wolf than a reallignment: it's the reallignment that wasn't.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Scott on August 10, 2011, 12:59:38 am
What are the odds that the one moderate Republican in the WI Senate will change parties?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Vice President PiT on August 10, 2011, 01:04:27 am
Kapanke was far to the right of his district & Hopper was embattled by scandal. To not knock off both of them would have been a complete failure for the Democrats.

And we all know that even those circumstances can sometimes not guarantee a win. Both are good wins.


     Of course not, though none expected Kapanke to survive & Hopper's prospects were not great either, not to mention others who could have fallen in Hopper's stead. It wasn't the worst feasible scenario for Democrats, but it was still far from the best.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Miles on August 10, 2011, 01:08:12 am
What are the odds that the one moderate Republican in the WI Senate will change parties?

If there was one, it would be Dale Schultz. He's the only Senate Republican who voted against the anti-union bill. He's from SD-17, in the southwestern corner of the state.

He'd be the most likely to pull a Specter, IMO.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Scott on August 10, 2011, 01:10:54 am
What are the odds that the one moderate Republican in the WI Senate will change parties?

If there was one, it would be Dale Schultz. He's the only Senate Republican who voted against the anti-union bill. He's from SD-17, in the southwestern corner of the state.

He'd be the most likely to pull a Specter, IMO.
Do you think he actually will, though?  Even if he doesn't, I think this is the end of anti-union legislation in Wisconsin.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Miles on August 10, 2011, 01:13:12 am
What are the odds that the one moderate Republican in the WI Senate will change parties?

If there was one, it would be Dale Schultz. He's the only Senate Republican who voted against the anti-union bill. He's from SD-17, in the southwestern corner of the state.

He'd be the most likely to pull a Specter, IMO.
Do you think he actually will, though?  Even if he doesn't, I think this is the end of anti-union legislation in Wisconsin.

Honestly, I don't know enough about WI politics to answer that.

I've just heard random speculation on DK Elections that he could switch.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 10, 2011, 01:35:35 am
Darling up 5000+ votes @ 99%

This race may typify a changing political attitude in the US.  It is not good news for Obama, short term, or the Democrats, long term.

lol

I guess all those people that just love public sector workers, and who listen to their protests just couldn't find the polls today, right Lief?

LOL for at Lief for ignoring polls and election results.


The Democrats and labor unions have been publically raking Scott Walker and the Wisconsin Republicans over the coals for most of this year about how the people were going to rise up and strike Walker and his union-bashing policies down. Maybe its because I am usually surrounded by far more liberals than conservatives or maybe it's that a showdown over public employee unions is for me a political nighmare--- I am a strongly conservative Republican who is generally pro-labor, but I have thought for some time that this would be the Republican Party's "day of reckoning" of sorts and it would go down in flames.


Agreed.  This wasn't, "Pay for your own benefits" or, "Well, we're going to lay you off," or even, "You can't strike, but you'll have to listen to the arbitrator."  It was, "You can't be represented by a union in collective bargaining."  That is a very right-wing position, and far to the right of me, and even the pre-Watergate G. Gordon Liddy.  Short of saying, "You will be fired/jailed if you join a union," that is the most extreme anti-organized labor position you can take.

Walker just took that position, and the voters said yes.  They said yes in what was a fairly liberal state after a government shutdown and after a well financed and organized campaign to get them to say no.

That is bad news for organized labor, and for the Democratic Party that relies on organized labor for support, organization, and fundraising.  It has the potential breaking the backbone of the Democratic Party in WI, and of being copied elsewhere.

It shows a change in public attitudes toward unions to a more negative one, especially toward public sector unions.



Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on August 10, 2011, 01:38:38 am
A bunch of Republican incumbents winning in Republican districts is a stunning endorsement of Walker's policies? As noted Walker's anti-union law would not pass in the new Senate makeup due to the Republican who opposed it.

Let's see how Walker's approvals are in the next poll.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 10, 2011, 01:43:27 am
I see JJ is reliving his 2008 glory days of hilarious over-the-top hackery.
I eagerly await to hear about how the Bradley Effect killed the Democrats chances to take the senate.



Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on August 10, 2011, 01:46:12 am
I see JJ is reliving his 2008 glory days of hilarious over-the-top hackery.
I eagerly await to hear about how the Bradley Effect killed the Democrats chances to take the senate.

I think I'm just going to put him on ignore rather than risk a surge of anger resulting in a relapse to old BRTD.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: BigSkyBob on August 10, 2011, 01:47:45 am
A bunch of Republican incumbents winning in Republican districts is a stunning endorsement of Walker's policies? As noted Walker's anti-union law would not pass in the new Senate makeup due to the Republican who opposed it.

Which is irrelevant given the bill has already passed.

Quote
Let's see how Walker's approvals are in the next poll.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 10, 2011, 01:50:07 am
Good to see we picked up two but obviously a tad disappointing. However, this was just the appetizer. If this swing is extrapolated statewide it means Walker's recall next year will be a toss-up. I look forward to it.

Additionally, anyone trying to draw "messages" from this result - on either side - needs to stop. If 1,000 votes in SD-14 had flipped then this would have been heralded as the rebirth of the modern labor movement. Since that didn't happen it's apparently a rejection of Democratic politics and the power of organized labor and an endorsement of Walker's agenda. Both interpretations are foolish. These were six individual races with unique dynamics fought on a variety of issues. What happened happened.

J.J. has also really outdone himself in this thread. Your cluelessness knows no bounds, old chap!


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on August 10, 2011, 01:54:11 am
Additionally, anyone trying to draw "messages" from this result - on either side - needs to stop. If 1,000 votes in SD-14 had flipped then this would have been heralded as the rebirth of the modern labor movement. Since that didn't happen it's apparently a rejection of Democratic politics and the power of organized labor and an endorsement of Walker's agenda. Both interpretations are foolish. These were six individual races with unique dynamics fought on a variety of issues. What happened happened.

I was going to make a new post pointing that out, but as I stated earlier, that's like screaming at your house to change its color instead of getting it painted.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Scott on August 10, 2011, 01:56:58 am
Good to see we picked up two but obviously a tad disappointing. However, this was just the appetizer. If this swing is extrapolated statewide it means Walker's recall next year will be a toss-up. I look forward to it.

Additionally, anyone trying to draw "messages" from this result - on either side - needs to stop. If 1,000 votes in SD-14 had flipped then this would have been heralded as the rebirth of the modern labor movement. Since that didn't happen it's apparently a rejection of Democratic politics and the power of organized labor and an endorsement of Walker's agenda. Both interpretations are foolish. These were six individual races with unique dynamics fought on a variety of issues. What happened happened.

J.J. has also really outdone himself in this thread. Your cluelessness knows no bounds, old chap!
I suppose you have a point.  I knew we would hear about this night all month long, regardless of the outcome.  Still, I do have some concerns about 2012.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: BigSkyBob on August 10, 2011, 02:02:54 am
Good to see we picked up two but obviously a tad disappointing. However, this was just the appetizer. If this swing is extrapolated statewide it means Walker's recall next year will be a toss-up. I look forward to it.

Additionally, anyone trying to draw "messages" from this result - on either side - needs to stop. If 1,000 votes in SD-14 had flipped then this would have been heralded as the rebirth of the modern labor movement. Since that didn't happen it's apparently a rejection of Democratic politics and the power of organized labor and an endorsement of Walker's agenda. Both interpretations are foolish. These were six individual races with unique dynamics fought on a variety of issues. What happened happened.


And, if a certain Senator hadn't had a marital split that may have resulted in his losing even less than a 1,000 voters, the message of this election to Democrats would have been "pound sand."



Quote
J.J. has also really outdone himself in this thread. Your cluelessness knows no bounds, old chap!

I read organized labor spent 33 million dollars to win two seats, one of which they would have claimed in one year.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 10, 2011, 02:04:42 am
Good to see we picked up two but obviously a tad disappointing. However, this was just the appetizer. If this swing is extrapolated statewide it means Walker's recall next year will be a toss-up. I look forward to it.

Additionally, anyone trying to draw "messages" from this result - on either side - needs to stop. If 1,000 votes in SD-14 had flipped then this would have been heralded as the rebirth of the modern labor movement. Since that didn't happen it's apparently a rejection of Democratic politics and the power of organized labor and an endorsement of Walker's agenda. Both interpretations are foolish. These were six individual races with unique dynamics fought on a variety of issues. What happened happened.


And, if a certain Senator hadn't had a marital split that may have resulted in his losing even less than a 1,000 voters, the message of this election to Democrats would have been "pound sand."

Yes. That's correct. Thank you for proving my point.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: BigSkyBob on August 10, 2011, 02:15:56 am
Good to see we picked up two but obviously a tad disappointing. However, this was just the appetizer. If this swing is extrapolated statewide it means Walker's recall next year will be a toss-up. I look forward to it.

Additionally, anyone trying to draw "messages" from this result - on either side - needs to stop. If 1,000 votes in SD-14 had flipped then this would have been heralded as the rebirth of the modern labor movement. Since that didn't happen it's apparently a rejection of Democratic politics and the power of organized labor and an endorsement of Walker's agenda. Both interpretations are foolish. These were six individual races with unique dynamics fought on a variety of issues. What happened happened.


And, if a certain Senator hadn't had a marital split that may have resulted in his losing even less than a 1,000 voters, the message of this election to Democrats would have been "pound sand."

Umm... thank you for proving my point? Do you even understand what I just said?

I'm just noting how close it came to being a humilating defeat for the Democrats in general, and organized labor in particular. Molly Yard once said, "Take our rights! Lose your job!," or some such thing. That was a clear threat of political retribution. "Take our rights! Almost lose your job!" doesn't quite seem as threatening. [Yard  wasn't really able to follow through either.]

Tonight simply wasn't about individual races with individual dynamics. It was about whether, or not, organized labor could follow through on a threat.


Very mixed result.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Meeker on August 10, 2011, 02:20:36 am
You clearly missed the point entirely. I guess that's why I have you on ignore and will continue to.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on August 10, 2011, 02:53:28 am
I find it helpful to think of the new makeup of the Wisconsin State Senate as 16-16-1, considering Schultz's...I can only describe it as his horrified attitude towards some of Walker's positions and actions.

I love how none of the Republicans are talking about how it took hours to call Darling's race after she was the proud recipient of more out-of-state corporate largesse than any other state-level candidate in history.

All this tells us is that Wisconsin is extremely polarized, will continue to be so, the Democrats have found some chinks in Republican armor (mainly with particularly bad or unfitting incumbents, but also in an unexpected place where they came very close to winning), but for some bizarre reason a lot of people just feel really strongly about a narrative that considers CPAs and venture capitalists more pure and hale than teachers and firefighters and farmers and nurses.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Scott on August 10, 2011, 02:59:19 am
I find it helpful to think of the new makeup of the Wisconsin State Senate as 16-16-1, considering Schultz's...I can only describe it as his horrified attitude towards some of Walker's positions and actions.

I love how none of the Republicans are talking about how it took hours to call Darling's race after she was the proud recipient of more out-of-state corporate largesse than any other state-level candidate in history.
I'm not surprised they're doing it.  I knew they would if they won.  Thing is, there really isn't really a true "winner" tonight- but if there is at all, it's the Democrats.  The Senate Majority is now hanging by a single moderate vote.  But will this get Walker to actually change the direction of things?  Judging by his antics, I'd say no.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on August 10, 2011, 03:03:46 am
I find it helpful to think of the new makeup of the Wisconsin State Senate as 16-16-1, considering Schultz's...I can only describe it as his horrified attitude towards some of Walker's positions and actions.

I love how none of the Republicans are talking about how it took hours to call Darling's race after she was the proud recipient of more out-of-state corporate largesse than any other state-level candidate in history.
I'm not surprised they're doing it.  I knew they would if they won.  Thing is, there really isn't really a true "winner" tonight- but if there is at all, it's the Democrats.  The Senate Majority is now hanging by a single moderate vote.  But will this get Walker to actually change the direction of things?  Judging by his antics, I'd say no.

The winner tonight, looking at it cynically, is Dale Schultz. Even that isn't necessarily that cynical, since all the Democratic state senators they were talking to seem to respect him and look forward to working with him a lot. Which is good, because they're going to have to work with him a lot. At the very least, they're an effective Thin Blue Line now. And that's more than what they were before.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Scott on August 10, 2011, 03:14:19 am
I find it helpful to think of the new makeup of the Wisconsin State Senate as 16-16-1, considering Schultz's...I can only describe it as his horrified attitude towards some of Walker's positions and actions.

I love how none of the Republicans are talking about how it took hours to call Darling's race after she was the proud recipient of more out-of-state corporate largesse than any other state-level candidate in history.
I'm not surprised they're doing it.  I knew they would if they won.  Thing is, there really isn't really a true "winner" tonight- but if there is at all, it's the Democrats.  The Senate Majority is now hanging by a single moderate vote.  But will this get Walker to actually change the direction of things?  Judging by his antics, I'd say no.

The winner tonight, looking at it cynically, is Dale Schultz. Even that isn't necessarily that cynical, since all the Democratic state senators they were talking to seem to respect him and look forward to working with him a lot. Which is good, because they're going to have to work with him a lot. At the very least, they're an effective Thin Blue Line now. And that's more than what they were before.
A valid point.  He'll be the deciding vote on everything, now.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ZuWo on August 10, 2011, 03:39:25 am
As far as I know, the Democrats' goal was to recall at least three Republican State Senators in order to gain a majority in the State Senate. They have not reached this goal. Thus, it takes a lot of spinning to portray these recall elections as a victory for the Democrats. That's not to say the Republicans have "won", of course. Their majority has become smaller. But if I were a Democrat, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic, either.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on August 10, 2011, 03:52:49 am
As far as I know, the Democrats' goal was to recall at least three Republican State Senators in order to gain a majority in the State Senate. They have not reached this goal. Thus, it takes a lot of spinning to portray these recall elections as a victory for the Democrats. That's not to say the Republicans have "won", of course. Their majority has become smaller. But if I were a Democrat, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic, either.

Oh, believe me, I'm not.

Not sure where this fits into the survival strategy of the working class in this country, but the point is, I hold out hope that it does somewhere.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Scott on August 10, 2011, 04:00:05 am
As far as I know, the Democrats' goal was to recall at least three Republican State Senators in order to gain a majority in the State Senate. They have not reached this goal. Thus, it takes a lot of spinning to portray these recall elections as a victory for the Democrats. That's not to say the Republicans have "won", of course. Their majority has become smaller. But if I were a Democrat, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic, either.
Well, I'm not bragging, by any means.  I'm happy that the WI Dems are in better shape than they were the day before the election, but I don't consider this a "Democratic night".  If you happen to be a Republican who saw it as a "Republican night", however, then I see you as a bratty child in deep denial.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: ZuWo on August 10, 2011, 04:09:45 am
As far as I know, the Democrats' goal was to recall at least three Republican State Senators in order to gain a majority in the State Senate. They have not reached this goal. Thus, it takes a lot of spinning to portray these recall elections as a victory for the Democrats. That's not to say the Republicans have "won", of course. Their majority has become smaller. But if I were a Democrat, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic, either.
Well, I'm not bragging, by any means.  I'm happy that the WI Dems are in better shape than they were the day before the election, but I don't consider this a "Democratic night".  If you happen to be a Republican who saw it as a "Republican night", however, then I see you as a bratty child in deep denial.

I'm a conservative but I'm not an American so I'm neither a Republican nor a Democrat. Thus, I try to look at the elections as unbiased as possible. Frankly, I expected the Democrats to win more than just two seats, so I would say the results are disappointing for them. Yet, I don't see a reason for the Republicans to rejoice, either. It will be more difficult for them to push through their agenda from now on.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 10, 2011, 04:22:11 am
Well, to extend Nathan's point, next year the Democrats will be able to recall 5 more Republican senators that sit on districts that are more Democratic than the ones that were decided yesterday (save Kapanke's).
You think these senators will continue to embrace Walker and his policies with the same unquestionable loyalty, risking to become the new Kapankes and Hoppers?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: hawkeye59 on August 10, 2011, 06:36:57 am
Don't the absentee ballots need to be counted? Especially in the Clark-Olsen race, couldn't that change it?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 10, 2011, 07:07:30 am
I think absentees are counted on election night in Wisconsin.

So, here's what last night shows:

1. Republican incumbents who are not scandal-plagued are still capable of winning Republican districts.
2. Democrats are still capable of winning Democratic districts.

In other words... pretty much nothing.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 10, 2011, 07:12:58 am
So, how did PPP do?

In District 10, their final poll had a 54-42 lead for Harsdorf (Harsdorf +12). Harsdorf ended up winning 58-42 (Harsdorf +16). Off by 4 in the Democrat's favor.

In District 14, their final poll had a 50-47 lead for Luther Olsen (Olsen +3). Olsen ended up winning 52-48 (Olsen +4). Off by 1 in the Republican's favor.

In District 18, their final poll had a 49-48 lead for Randy Hopper (Hopper +1). King ended up winning 51-49 (King +2). Off by 3 in the Republican's favor.

In District 32, their final poll had a 54-43 lead for Shilling (Shilling +11). Shilling ended up winning 55-45 (Shilling +10). Off by 1 in the Democrat's favor.

All in all, pretty decent performance, considering they were polling a special election for the state legislature.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Brittain33 on August 10, 2011, 09:04:17 am
I think absentees are counted on election night in Wisconsin.

So, here's what last night shows:

1. Republican incumbents who are not scandal-plagued are still capable of winning Republican districts.
2. Democrats are still capable of winning Democratic districts.

In other words... pretty much nothing.

Yep. I think this is good enough. It shows we're not heading back to 2006/2008 any time soon (which anyone should have recognized) but 2010 is receding in the rear view mirror.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: krazen1211 on August 10, 2011, 09:07:46 am
Time to get ready to recall Jim Holperin!


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Brittain33 on August 10, 2011, 09:22:36 am
Time to get ready to recall Jim Holperin!

Thank God the Republicans drew a terrible candidate there.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: MasterJedi on August 10, 2011, 09:24:25 am
I love how none of the Republicans are talking about how it took hours to call Darling's race after she was the proud recipient of more out-of-state corporate largesse than any other state-level candidate in history.

Except everything I saw was about 10-1 against her, almost everything on TV and the annoying youtube ads were how she "voted to cut medicare, etc, etc". Plus the district took forever to be counted, another reason why it took so long to call it for her.



Well, to extend Nathan's point, next year the Democrats will be able to recall 5 more Republican senators that sit on districts that are more Democratic than the ones that were decided yesterday (save Kapanke's).
You think these senators will continue to embrace Walker and his policies with the same unquestionable loyalty, risking to become the new Kapankes and Hoppers?

They most likely won't try it. Everyone here is already sick of it, and since they didn't get it I think they'll just try and win some seats next year, whoever is up.


Repubs are likely to win back Hoper's seat when that seat is up with someone who doesn't have a scandel since the district was made even more Republican.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Invisible Obama on August 10, 2011, 09:25:17 am
Time to get ready to recall Jim Holperin!

Not with Crazy Kim Simac you won't. She doesn't pay taxes, avoids debates and thinks schools are run by Nazi's, while that's an ideal candidate to most right-wingers, it's not exactly a fit for a marginal seat.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 10, 2011, 09:29:22 am
Well, to extend Nathan's point, next year the Democrats will be able to recall 5 more Republican senators that sit on districts that are more Democratic than the ones that were decided yesterday (save Kapanke's).
You think these senators will continue to embrace Walker and his policies with the same unquestionable loyalty, risking to become the new Kapankes and Hoppers?

They most likely won't try it. Everyone here is already sick of it, and since they didn't get it I think they'll just try and win some seats next year, whoever is up.

Oh, yeah. The voters were so sick of it that they turned out in record numbers in some precincts.

You may need some of those when you finish spinning.

(http://medcatalog.net/picture-drug/dramamine-motion-sickness-relief-chewable-formula-orange.jpg)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: J. J. on August 10, 2011, 09:34:12 am
I see JJ is reliving his 2008 glory days of hilarious over-the-top hackery.
I eagerly await to hear about how the Bradley Effect killed the Democrats chances to take the senate.



This was suppose to be a win of 3-5 seats, according to the start of this thread.  I'm wondering about next week.

I mean, if the Democrats didn't think there was a good chance of flipping the WI Senate, why go to all this trouble?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: krazen1211 on August 10, 2011, 09:35:02 am
Time to get ready to recall Jim Holperin!

Thank God the Republicans drew a terrible candidate there.

What is the Walker % there?

Edit: 57% it seems.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Brittain33 on August 10, 2011, 09:37:28 am
Time to get ready to recall Jim Holperin!

Thank God the Republicans drew a terrible candidate there.

What is the Walker % there?

Dunno. How would you rate Simac as a candidate vs. Walker? More skilled and electable, about equal, or not as strong? How about Holperin vs. the Dem who ran?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Brittain33 on August 10, 2011, 09:39:25 am
Does any other Democrat feel kind of relieved about this result because at least it meant that Walker ramming through all that legislation before the recalls didn't result in laws passing that wouldn't have passed anyway? I feel better about that.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: hawkeye59 on August 10, 2011, 09:43:29 am
Well, it's not that bad, because
A. We still have Dale Schulz
B. We will recall Walker next year
C. We will recall other senators next year.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Brittain33 on August 10, 2011, 09:45:42 am
Well, it's not that bad, because
B. We will recall Walker next year

You think? Between this and the Prosser result, I wouldn't think that Walker could be successfully recalled. There may be benefit in trying and putting him through that, but I expect he'd be reelected by a narrow margin.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: krazen1211 on August 10, 2011, 09:48:21 am

Dunno. How would you rate Simac as a candidate vs. Walker? More skilled and electable, about equal, or not as strong? How about Holperin vs. the Dem who ran?

Certainly less, but so was Randy Hopper.

In the last year, the bulk of candidates that really tick off the left in districts like this have lost. However, some have won.

Per the OP this district is more Republican than Hopper's district and about equal to Olsen's district.

We shall see!


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Talleyrand on August 10, 2011, 10:04:42 am

Dunno. How would you rate Simac as a candidate vs. Walker? More skilled and electable, about equal, or not as strong? How about Holperin vs. the Dem who ran?

Certainly less, but so was Randy Hopper.

In the last year, the bulk of candidates that really tick off the left in districts like this have lost. However, some have won.

Per the OP this district is more Republican than Hopper's district and about equal to Olsen's district.

We shall see!

In terms of presidential results it is more blue than all of them except Kapanke's. (53% Obama)
But as you said, we will wait and see.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: rob in cal on August 10, 2011, 10:05:13 am
Is it reasonable to assume that without Hoppers scandal he would have retained his seat.  If so, than last night would have been very disappointing for Dems.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: NVGonzalez on August 10, 2011, 10:16:54 am
I must give credit to Walker. Those photo ID laws and other voting restraining laws made a difference. Instead of stopping his agenda it will only be slowed down by a bunch. He is still being recalled next year though. I hope his challenger is Feingold.

Also that State Senator that voted against Walker's union busting bill is the reason Fitzgerald remains the majority leader there. Him also being recalled would had handed the Dems the majority.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on August 10, 2011, 10:38:33 am
Well, it's not that bad, because
B. We will recall Walker next year

You think? Between this and the Prosser result, I wouldn't think that Walker could be successfully recalled. There may be benefit in trying and putting him through that, but I expect he'd be reelected by a narrow margin.

Given this result, it seems that Walker would survive a recall. That's just my opinion, of course, but it seems like the numbers point to him  being favored.

I doubt any of the subsequent recalls will go anywhere either.

(Wisconsin should consider changing their recall laws, in any case.)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 10, 2011, 10:45:10 am
(Wisconsin should consider changing their recall laws, in any case.)

Why so timid?
They should just abolish the legislature and install Walker as Governor for Life, governing by decree.
The voters vindicated him after all.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: TJ in Wisco on August 10, 2011, 10:47:47 am
I love how none of the Republicans are talking about how it took hours to call Darling's race after she was the proud recipient of more out-of-state corporate largesse than any other state-level candidate in history.


The main reason why it took so long to call this race was that only Washington County had fully reported its results for quite a while and a large portion of Milwaukee County was still unreported. It remained unreported even until after the AP called the race, though once almost every precinct in the other counties came in (including all of Waukesha, the outstanding precincts when this was called were 12 in Milwaukee and 2 in Ozaukee). The AP waited until it became clear that it was impossible for Pasch to make up the vote difference based on the outstanding Milwaukee precincts. They called it exactly when I did.

However, the insinuation from the Democrats here is that Waukesha County was the reason it took so long when 10/11 precincts in Waukesha County reported about an hour before it was called and Milwaukee was missing 12 precincts for about two hours. I know the Wisconsin Democrats are going to allege vote tampering in Waukesha County, but the numbers don’t really support it (turnout and the margin were pretty similar to Washington and Ozaukee Counties) and unless they know something I don’t, these allegations are nothing more than a hollow attempt to destroy the credibility of our Democratic process.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Invisible Obama on August 10, 2011, 10:48:52 am
I have to repeat again that the districts retained are more Republican than the state of Wisconsin on average and are all places Walker won anyway. He could perform well in all these districts in a recall and still lose. On a statewide level, it's not like Democratic and swing areas aren't going to play a role, there wasn't enough of that sort of territory in play for most of the recalls to be successful. It's a completely different ball game.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Talleyrand on August 10, 2011, 10:50:49 am
Republican recruiting failures will probably keep Holperin and Wirch in office. State Rep. Samantha Kerkman could have made the Wirch seat competitive. She is just 37 and is a rising star, but maybe she didn't think she could win in the Dem district.

ALL 3 of Holperin's district's assembly seats are in GOP hands, but surprisingly, none of them challenged him. Holperin's pretty moderate, has a horrible opponent, and has been through a recall before (1990, when he was in the assembly), but the political composition of the district will still keep it competitive.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Torie on August 10, 2011, 10:55:31 am
Darling won by 54% by the way, by 5,400 votes. Those remaining precincts in Milwaukee county were about a wash.  We would have known the result last night about 11 pm central time or thereabouts if only we had known where those missing precincts were from. Milwaukee county election reporting sucks.  

I assume the GOP gerrymander will shut the Dems out for a decade in the Wisconsin legislature. The state is so polarized that gerrymandering has a lot of traction.  I know some of Darling's "problem" towns are being dumped into a Dem sink district.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: krazen1211 on August 10, 2011, 11:21:06 am
I must give credit to Walker. Those photo ID laws and other voting restraining laws made a difference. Instead of stopping his agenda it will only be slowed down by a bunch. He is still being recalled next year though. I hope his challenger is Feingold.

Also that State Senator that voted against Walker's union busting bill is the reason Fitzgerald remains the majority leader there. Him also being recalled would had handed the Dems the majority.


The photo ID laws that are not in effect yet, and the senator that is not eligible for a recall?

Amusing!


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: krazen1211 on August 10, 2011, 11:25:32 am
I assume the GOP gerrymander will shut the Dems out for a decade in the Wisconsin legislature. The state is so polarized that gerrymandering has a lot of traction.  I know some of Darling's "problem" towns are being dumped into a Dem sink district.

That is not so much a function of gerrymandering as it is a function of the extreme underpopulation of the 4 Democratic held Milwaukee districts.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: MasterJedi on August 10, 2011, 11:39:03 am
Well, to extend Nathan's point, next year the Democrats will be able to recall 5 more Republican senators that sit on districts that are more Democratic than the ones that were decided yesterday (save Kapanke's).
You think these senators will continue to embrace Walker and his policies with the same unquestionable loyalty, risking to become the new Kapankes and Hoppers?

They most likely won't try it. Everyone here is already sick of it, and since they didn't get it I think they'll just try and win some seats next year, whoever is up.

Oh, yeah. The voters were so sick of it that they turned out in record numbers in some precincts.

Voter turnout =/= voter opinion. I live here, people are sick of it, but they'll still turn out to the polls to vote for since they want their opinion to be heard. But I guess I'll bend to your opinion since you live in Greece and I only live in WI! ::)

What I write below is in general, hence the line, so I'm not just saying it to you, so you can settle lol.



But seriously, Hopper's district was made more Republican and he likely would have run this time around too if he didn't have his own scandel.

The other big thing was there was almost nothing said about collective bargaining the whole damn campaign, it was all about how the Republican Senators was trying to take away everyone's medicare


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: BigSkyBob on August 10, 2011, 11:45:06 am
I think absentees are counted on election night in Wisconsin.

So, here's what last night shows:

1. Republican incumbents who are not scandal-plagued are still capable of winning Republican districts.


Didn't you mean to say, "Republican incumbents...can still hold Obama districts?"

Wasn't that the meme right up until the night the Democratic nominees lost?

Quote
2. Democrats are still capable of winning Democratic districts.

In other words... pretty much nothing.



Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on August 10, 2011, 11:47:41 am
As far as I know, the Democrats' goal was to recall at least three Republican State Senators in order to gain a majority in the State Senate. They have not reached this goal. Thus, it takes a lot of spinning to portray these recall elections as a victory for the Democrats. That's not to say the Republicans have "won", of course. Their majority has become smaller. But if I were a Democrat, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic, either.

I don't think any Democrats are acting that way.

The point is more that this doesn't prove anything beyond that non-scandal plagued Republican incumbents can win in Republican districts. Not that the public wants to carry out a mass lynching of public sector employees.

I assume the GOP gerrymander will shut the Dems out for a decade in the Wisconsin legislature. The state is so polarized that gerrymandering has a lot of traction.  I know some of Darling's "problem" towns are being dumped into a Dem sink district.

Wisconsin is too fluid, nothing can shield against a Dem wave there, just look at the swing from 2004 to 2008. The inverse is true too of course if there was a Dem gerrymander.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: BigSkyBob on August 10, 2011, 11:48:31 am
You clearly missed the point entirely. I guess that's why I have you on ignore and will continue to.

Oh, I know what your point was, and, I know the biggest issue on election night is whether, or not, organized labor can inflict retribution, or not.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Miles on August 10, 2011, 11:54:03 am
I think absentees are counted on election night in Wisconsin.

So, here's what last night shows:

1. Republican incumbents who are not scandal-plagued are still capable of winning Republican districts.


Didn't you mean to say, "Republican incumbents...can still hold Obama districts?"

Wasn't that the meme right up until the night the Democratic nominees lost?


No, the districts still had Republican PVI's.

Except Kapanke's.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on August 10, 2011, 11:59:45 am
Two seats flipping was really the over/under here. Losing but one would have been a Republican moral victory, three (obviously) a major victory for Democrats.

Oh yeah, only thing remotely surprising is Harsdorf's margin. About the final results that is, maybe there's more in a county breakdown.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Scott on August 10, 2011, 12:13:04 pm
Haha, oh wow.  Not even Walker's bragging. (http://www.channel3000.com/news/28823111/detail.html)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 10, 2011, 12:15:16 pm
Voter turnout =/= voter opinion. I live here, people are sick of it, but they'll still turn out to the polls to vote for since they want their opinion to be heard. But I guess I'll bend to your opinion since you live in Greece and I only live in WI! ::)


So it is Republicans who are sick of the process. Thanks for the clarification.

And no, being from Wisconsin sadly doesn't make your opinion the Absolute Truth.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Torie on August 10, 2011, 12:42:09 pm
Haha, oh wow.  Not even Walker's bragging. (http://www.channel3000.com/news/28823111/detail.html)

Walker got what he wanted, so he can tack moderate now. The heavy lifting is done.

Yes BRTD, waves can break a gerrymander. I don't see a Dem one in the making for some time myself.  One requirement for it IMO given the current political environment will be a Pubbie president in office who becomes unpopular. I don't see it happening while Obama is in office. I suspect about half the voters or close to it want him leashed.

Yes, this is the legislature, but stuff flows down ballot these days almost seamlessly. State politics has been nationalized, and states are dealing with what are really national issues. JMO.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Scott on August 10, 2011, 12:47:43 pm
Haha, oh wow.  Not even Walker's bragging. (http://www.channel3000.com/news/28823111/detail.html)

Walker got what he wanted, so he can tack moderate now. The heavy lifting is done.

Well, in this country, "moderate" translates to "weak".  Especially on Republican standards.  This is a huge showing of weakness.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: MasterJedi on August 10, 2011, 01:05:24 pm
Voter turnout =/= voter opinion. I live here, people are sick of it, but they'll still turn out to the polls to vote for since they want their opinion to be heard. But I guess I'll bend to your opinion since you live in Greece and I only live in WI! ::)


So it is Republicans who are sick of the process. Thanks for the clarification.

And no, being from Wisconsin sadly doesn't make your opinion the Absolute Truth.

Whatever you want to think, not like you ever listen to anyone here anyways.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Brittain33 on August 10, 2011, 01:56:59 pm
Haha, oh wow.  Not even Walker's bragging. (http://www.channel3000.com/news/28823111/detail.html)

Walker got what he wanted, so he can tack moderate now. The heavy lifting is done.

Well, in this country, "moderate" translates to "weak".  Especially on Republican standards.  This is a huge showing of weakness.

No Republican's going to lose faith in Walker for quite some time after the wins he racked up before the recalls. He's free to say what he wants to in order to win reelection.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza
Post by: BigSkyBob on August 10, 2011, 03:45:35 pm
I think absentees are counted on election night in Wisconsin.

So, here's what last night shows:

1. Republican incumbents who are not scandal-plagued are still capable of winning Republican districts.


Didn't you mean to say, "Republican incumbents...can still hold Obama districts?"

Wasn't that the meme right up until the night the Democratic nominees lost?


No, the districts still had Republican PVI's.

Except Kapanke's.

Those may very well be the numbers, but, that wasn't the meme, until, of course, the Democrats lost.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: MSG on August 10, 2011, 04:03:20 pm
It seems to me that someone like kapkanke (sp) losing because hes in a democratic districts misses a larger point. He was clearly able to win this seat even in a year like 08 so he had some broad appeal.  If he has now lost it shows that his desicions lost that broad appeal. In a state that is aleast marginally democratic one would think you have to hold seats like this if your republicans and you want a long standing majority. Yes, i am sure they can gerrymander the hell out of things a maybe make enough safe seats but that a risky long term startegy escpicially in a politically literate state like wisconsin. Uber political gerrymandering voter laws politically targeted and voter id laws all scream we are doing this for our gain not for the betterment of the state, people may be apathetic but they are not stupid. Sooner or later if you play with fire your gonna get burnt.

Also, what really saddens me about this whole thing both here and in other states is the complete lack of knowledge about what labor unions have done for people throughout the years. I am glad i never had to work when i 8 or that when i was hurt on the job i didnt just get fired cause i couldnt work anymore and had recourse against my employer for the negligence that caused the accident.  The problem i see is that over time people forgot the struggles that granted them rights and benifits that they have become so accustom to having they now take them for granted. Just my opinion everyone has one.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 10, 2011, 08:42:20 pm
Our old friend, the counting error, makes another appearance. (http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blogs0106&plckController=Blog&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&U=ac0bbd46-9442-4b60-a671-5c030427742c&plckPostId=Blog%3Aac0bbd46-9442-4b60-a671-5c030427742cPost%3A67083623-cd4c-4230-a6ea-ae8252d4b093&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest) Cowles' margin in Outagamie was overinflated (it's 54-46, not 69-31), but obviously it's not enough to change the outcome.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Eraserhead on August 11, 2011, 04:03:03 am
MSM is certainly working hard to spin this as a big Republican victory (or at least it seems that way in my admittedly limited experience with it in recent days).


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on August 11, 2011, 04:18:52 am
MSM is certainly working hard to spin this as a big Republican victory (or at least it seems that way in my admittedly limited experience with it in recent days).

Oh, that librull lamestream media, always comes through in the clutch.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Lief 🐋 on August 11, 2011, 08:05:57 am
(http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/08/10/us/politics/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose-blog480.jpg)

In a futile effort to make J.J. shut up...


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 11, 2011, 08:25:42 am
(http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/08/10/us/politics/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose-blog480.jpg)

In a futile effort to make J.J. shut up...

You don't know what you're talking about, you  Washingtonian hippie!
Ir's pretty obvious that Real Wisconsinites are sick and tired of that recall business.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on August 11, 2011, 08:59:10 am
(http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/08/10/us/politics/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose-blog480.jpg)

Pretty obvious disconnect between the first three and the last three here.

Real Wisconsin is only in the first three districts, of course.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Brittain33 on August 11, 2011, 09:05:25 am
Great, so if we can get Scott Walker to have a scandal approximately 3% (1/33) as embarrassing as leaving your wife for your aide and shacking up together, he will lose a recall narrowly.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: ilikeverin on August 11, 2011, 09:13:00 am
(http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/08/10/us/politics/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose-blog480.jpg)

In a futile effort to make J.J. shut up...

Isn't the Cowles data point skewed, too, because of the incorrect tabulation of results?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on August 11, 2011, 09:42:05 am
(http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/08/10/us/politics/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose-blog480.jpg)

In a futile effort to make J.J. shut up...

Well, if you take out the race that had nothing to do with Scott Walker and everything to do with leaving your wife for an aide a few months before an election, then you get:

All 5 Districts: 56.9% vs. 54.6%
Wisconsin Statewide 52.3% vs. 51.4% (extrapolated)

Of course, you knew that already.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Invisible Obama on August 11, 2011, 09:55:57 am
We have no idea how Walker will perform in other corners of the state that are not as Republican or not very Republican at all. Any gubernatorial recall will be about Walker, with Democratic strongholds in the mix. None of these recalls really had a lot of Democratic strongholds involved.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 11, 2011, 10:26:22 am
(http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/08/10/us/politics/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose-blog480.jpg)

In a futile effort to make J.J. shut up...

Thanks for this! Obvious proof that Walker is loathed by Wisconsin.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: BigSkyBob on August 11, 2011, 10:37:36 am
(http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/08/10/us/politics/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose-blog480.jpg)

In a futile effort to make J.J. shut up...

You don't know what you're talking about, you  Washingtonian hippie!
Ir's pretty obvious that Real Wisconsinites are sick and tired of that recall business.

Well, I'm pretty sure that middle Wisconsin is sick of the vandalism, the shouting, the unlawful detentions, the harassing phone calls, and, probably, the saturated political ads.

Associating your movement with the symbol of an organization that murdered police officiers isn't going to help your position.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: BigSkyBob on August 11, 2011, 10:50:44 am
(http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/08/10/us/politics/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose-blog480.jpg)

In a futile effort to make J.J. shut up...

So, you are saying that as if right now, if the unions pour nearly 200,000,000 dollars in a recall election they might just win it?

Where exactly did the Walker recall stand a few months ago? Seems he was behind. The unions spent 30,000,000, yet Walker gained ground.

Your intolerance is mattering less and less.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 11, 2011, 11:04:10 am
(http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/08/10/us/politics/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose-blog480.jpg)

In a futile effort to make J.J. shut up...

You don't know what you're talking about, you  Washingtonian hippie!
Ir's pretty obvious that Real Wisconsinites are sick and tired of that recall business.

Well, I'm pretty sure that middle Wisconsin is sick of the vandalism, the shouting, the unlawful detentions, the harassing phone calls, and, probably, the saturated political ads.

Associating your movement with the symbol of an organization that murdered police officiers isn't going to help your position.

Despite the rumors you  have heard by the orderlies during your treatment, the man in the suit talking on TV the last days is David Cameron, Prime Minister of England.

P.S. What's an officier?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Torie on August 11, 2011, 12:04:58 pm
Nice chart Lief. Thanks for finding it. It does appear that there was marginal GOP erosion overall.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: ... on August 11, 2011, 12:23:11 pm
Nice chart Lief. Thanks for finding it. It does appear that there was marginal GOP erosion overall.

It took a lot of money by the libs to erode it.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on August 11, 2011, 12:30:31 pm
It took more money by the Republicans to not get eroded further.

I have no idea whatsoever what BS Bob is even talking about any more (I have him on ignore but he shows up in px's quote nest). None at all.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on August 11, 2011, 03:09:28 pm
I like how Republicans are saying Democrats spent the most money, and how Democrats are saying that Republicans spent the most money.

Does anyone have any verifiable facts they could lay down?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 11, 2011, 03:20:58 pm
I like how Republicans are saying Democrats spent the most money, and how Democrats are saying that Republicans spent the most money.

Does anyone have any verifiable facts they could lay down?

I read that the Dems outspent the GOP 2 to 1...but that was a few days ago and don't have a link to it. I found it somewhat hard to believe but it was written by a neutral source. I swear!  :P


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Brittain33 on August 11, 2011, 03:26:27 pm
I like how Republicans are saying Democrats spent the most money, and how Democrats are saying that Republicans spent the most money.

Does anyone have any verifiable facts they could lay down?

I read that the Dems outspent the GOP 2 to 1...but that was a few days ago and don't have a link to it. I found it somewhat hard to believe but it was written by a neutral source. I swear!  :P

I wonder if that accounts for how much Republican money is funneled through independent orgs these days.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Mr.Phips on August 11, 2011, 07:06:06 pm
Haha, oh wow.  Not even Walker's bragging. (http://www.channel3000.com/news/28823111/detail.html)

Walker got what he wanted, so he can tack moderate now. The heavy lifting is done.

Yes BRTD, waves can break a gerrymander. I don't see a Dem one in the making for some time myself.  One requirement for it IMO given the current political environment will be a Pubbie president in office who becomes unpopular. I don't see it happening while Obama is in office. I suspect about half the voters or close to it want him leashed.

Yes, this is the legislature, but stuff flows down ballot these days almost seamlessly. State politics has been nationalized, and states are dealing with what are really national issues. JMO.

Are you conceding that Obama will be reelected?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Eraserhead on August 12, 2011, 02:45:24 am
Democrats probably shouldn't bother trying to recall Walker. Too risky. Let him keep digging the hole for now. 2014 is going to be an absolute blood bath for Republicans if Obama loses anyway (which is starting to seem more and more likely).


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Torie on August 12, 2011, 10:17:29 am
Haha, oh wow.  Not even Walker's bragging. (http://www.channel3000.com/news/28823111/detail.html)

Walker got what he wanted, so he can tack moderate now. The heavy lifting is done.

Yes BRTD, waves can break a gerrymander. I don't see a Dem one in the making for some time myself.  One requirement for it IMO given the current political environment will be a Pubbie president in office who becomes unpopular. I don't see it happening while Obama is in office. I suspect about half the voters or close to it want him leashed.

Yes, this is the legislature, but stuff flows down ballot these days almost seamlessly. State politics has been nationalized, and states are dealing with what are really national issues. JMO.

Are you conceding that Obama will be reelected?

No, but what I am saying is that if he is due to the weakness of the Pubbie candidate, his party isn't going to get more than about half the vote, and his party will run behind him if Obama runs ahead of the Pubbie by some real margin, like last time or close to it.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Mr.Phips on August 12, 2011, 04:42:05 pm
Haha, oh wow.  Not even Walker's bragging. (http://www.channel3000.com/news/28823111/detail.html)

Walker got what he wanted, so he can tack moderate now. The heavy lifting is done.

Yes BRTD, waves can break a gerrymander. I don't see a Dem one in the making for some time myself.  One requirement for it IMO given the current political environment will be a Pubbie president in office who becomes unpopular. I don't see it happening while Obama is in office. I suspect about half the voters or close to it want him leashed.

Yes, this is the legislature, but stuff flows down ballot these days almost seamlessly. State politics has been nationalized, and states are dealing with what are really national issues. JMO.

Are you conceding that Obama will be reelected?

No, but what I am saying is that if he is due to the weakness of the Pubbie candidate, his party isn't going to get more than about half the vote, and his party will run behind him if Obama runs ahead of the Pubbie by some real margin, like last time or close to it.

Maybe 30 years ago, but now with straight ticket voting, I am willing to bet that Democrats will get the exact same percentage of the vote as Obama. 


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: BigSkyBob on August 13, 2011, 01:26:28 am
It took more money by the Republicans to not get eroded further.

I have no idea whatsoever what BS Bob is even talking about any more (I have him on ignore but he shows up in px's quote nest). None at all.

There was the group of thugs that put a Republican state Senator into unlawful detainment until a Democratic college freed him from his captors. There was the public employee whom used her state telephone to threat a gas station owner for selling gasoline to a Republican. There was millions of dollars of damage to the Capitol building. There was the Democratic State Senator whose recall opposition campaign phoned and harassed signers of his recall petition. And, there was the infamous shirt with the symbol of the Black Panthers emblazoned upon it.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: J. J. on August 13, 2011, 02:12:57 am
(http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/08/10/us/politics/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose/fivethirtyeight-0810-WIrecallclose-blog480.jpg)

In a futile effort to make J.J. shut up...

Thanks for this! Obvious proof that Walker is loathed by Wisconsin.

And it looks like the Democrats had spend more than four times the amount of money they did of all legislative races to do it.

I'm interested in the other two races.



Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 13, 2011, 12:27:22 pm
We'll be getting PPP polls on the remaining two Democratic recalls Monday.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Invisible Obama on August 14, 2011, 10:26:03 pm
Good news for Democrats

http://twitter.com/#!/markos/status/102934233256951808

Just got @ppppolls results from two Wisconsin recall elections Tuesd. Dems will win both by double-digits. Remember, PPP nailed last week



Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 15, 2011, 03:50:50 am
Good news for Democrats

http://twitter.com/#!/markos/status/102934233256951808

Just got @ppppolls results from two Wisconsin recall elections Tuesd. Dems will win both by double-digits. Remember, PPP nailed last week



Another Republican triumph!
The people have spoken: leave Scott Walker alone!!!


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 15, 2011, 07:21:12 am
Red Racing Horses, the conservative alternative to DKE, has their own polling operation now! They used We Ask America (http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/924/breaking-news-we-have-a-barn-burner-in-sd12-between-kim-simac-and-jim-holperin) and got a 51-49 Holperin lead. Unfortunately for them, their sample looks too independent-heavy (and zero undecideds always seems... unlikely).


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: krazen1211 on August 15, 2011, 10:30:14 am
Jim Holperin (D-inc): 55
Kim Simac (R): 41
Undecided: 4


Showdown, I guess.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 15, 2011, 10:42:20 am
SD-22:

    Robert Wirch (D-inc): 55
    Jonathan Steitz (R): 42
    Undecided: 3
    (MoE: ±2.9%)

SD-12:

    Jim Holperin (D-inc): 55
    Kim Simac (R): 41
    Undecided: 4
    (MoE: ±2.6%)

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/08/15/1006949/-Wisconsin-recalls:-Democrats-hold-double-digit-leads-in-final-two-races


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 15, 2011, 05:45:47 pm
PPP looks a little too optimistic for Holperin, so I'm going to guess he ends up winning about 54-46.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: krazen1211 on August 15, 2011, 06:24:32 pm
Here are Holperin figures from 2008 where he got 51% of the vote. As returns come in from each county he will likely have to match these figures.

Florence: 43%
Forest: 56%
Langlade: 46%
Lincoln: 49%
Marathon: 49%
Marinette: 48%
Menominee: 86%
Oconto: 54%
Oneida: 54%
Shawano: 56%
Vilas: 50%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 16, 2011, 06:55:12 pm
Results link (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/WI_State_Senate_0816.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS); polls close in an hour.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 16, 2011, 08:24:22 pm
A few precincts in; Holperin's up 56-44 in Forest County, which is exactly what he got in '08. Wirch is down by 53-47, probably rural ones.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: krazen1211 on August 16, 2011, 08:44:18 pm
Holperin is doing fine thus far. 16 precincts in.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on August 16, 2011, 08:45:11 pm
What part of Racine is in Wirch's district?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: krazen1211 on August 16, 2011, 08:50:29 pm
What part of Racine is in Wirch's district?
Some small town in the corner called Burlington.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on August 16, 2011, 08:52:19 pm
What part of Racine is in Wirch's district?
Some small town in the corner called Burlington.

What is that like politically? Is that over or under performance for Wirch there?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Nhoj on August 16, 2011, 08:57:03 pm
What part of Racine is in Wirch's district?
Some small town in the corner called Burlington.

What is that like politically? Is that over or under performance for Wirch there?
Slight over I believe.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 16, 2011, 09:00:07 pm
Wirch won with 67% in '08 but only got 49% in Racine. Once Kenosha proper starts to come in, he'll probably shoot up into the lead.

Holperin's doing pretty similarly to '08; he's pretty much even in all the counties that are reporting so far, except he's overperforming (so far) in Oneida and Shawano. Oneida may be because his '08 opponent was from there, whereas Simac is from the same county he is.



Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: krazen1211 on August 16, 2011, 09:01:15 pm
Oneida completely depends on where the precincts are.

Wirch should be fine unless the city of Kenosha dropped off the map.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 16, 2011, 09:08:39 pm
Forest, Marathon, and Marinette are now nearly all in, and Holperin's at exactly the same percentages he got in '08.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 16, 2011, 09:09:49 pm
Kenosha County results; faster than the AP. (http://www.co.kenosha.wi.us/countyclerk/election_results/voteresult.phtml) Wirch just pulled ahead there, so he's now only down by about 400 votes. Edit: now he's up by 9 in Kenosha.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Seattle on August 16, 2011, 09:14:32 pm
What's with that one precinct in Walworth with 0 votes?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 16, 2011, 09:16:53 pm
Empty precinct; there are a lot of those in Wisconsin.

Wirch is up to a 58-42 lead in Kenosha with about half the precincts in.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: J. J. on August 16, 2011, 09:23:29 pm
It looks about the same as 2008, correct?  One or two points up for the Democrats?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Seattle on August 16, 2011, 09:30:44 pm
AP calling it for Wirch, 55-45, no surprise. That margin will probably rise too.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: J. J. on August 16, 2011, 09:32:39 pm
Beet me to it.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: krazen1211 on August 16, 2011, 09:33:10 pm
It looks about the same as 2008, correct?  One or two points up for the Democrats?

About that. Some GOP counties outstanding, but it likely won't be enough.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: J. J. on August 16, 2011, 09:37:39 pm
Langlade, Lincoln, Vilas, and Florence, still out.  How many people and how do they vote?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Seattle on August 16, 2011, 09:48:44 pm
According to Krazen here are 2008 %s:

Florence: 43%
Forest: 56%  -- 58%
Langlade: 46% -- 50%
Lincoln: 49%
Marathon: 49% -- 49%
Marinette: 48% -- 48%
Menominee: 86% -- 77%
Oconto: 54% -- 49%
Oneida: 54% -- 58%
Shawano: 56% -- 52%
Vilas: 50% -- 53%

So overall pretty similar. Lincoln has 30,000 people, while Florence has 4,000, no idea about the rest of Oneida.

 


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: J. J. on August 16, 2011, 09:52:25 pm
According to Krazen here are 2008 %s:

Florence: 43%
Forest: 56%  -- 58%
Langlade: 46% -- 50%
Lincoln: 49%
Marathon: 49% -- 49%
Marinette: 48% -- 48%
Menominee: 86% -- 77%
Oconto: 54% -- 49%
Oneida: 54% -- 56%
Shawano: 56% -- 52%
Vilas: 50% -- 53%

So overall pretty similar. Lincoln togethor have 30,000 people, while Florence has 4,000, no idea about the rest of Oneida.

 


Vilas and Langlade just reported at the same percentages as 2008.  Time to call it for Holperin.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: J. J. on August 16, 2011, 09:55:35 pm
I beet AP to it.  :)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 16, 2011, 09:57:41 pm
Wow, strong finish by Holperin. I was expecting a 51-49 result; looks like it'll end up being around 53.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: krazen1211 on August 16, 2011, 09:58:02 pm
Red Racing Horses, the conservative alternative to DKE, has their own polling operation now! They used We Ask America (http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/924/breaking-news-we-have-a-barn-burner-in-sd12-between-kim-simac-and-jim-holperin) and got a 51-49 Holperin lead. Unfortunately for them, their sample looks too independent-heavy (and zero undecideds always seems... unlikely).

WAA did an ok job. PPP put up a clunker.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 16, 2011, 09:59:49 pm
Six out of seven ain't bad.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Seattle on August 16, 2011, 10:03:25 pm
Red Racing Horses, the conservative alternative to DKE, has their own polling operation now! They used We Ask America (http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/924/breaking-news-we-have-a-barn-burner-in-sd12-between-kim-simac-and-jim-holperin) and got a 51-49 Holperin lead. Unfortunately for them, their sample looks too independent-heavy (and zero undecideds always seems... unlikely).

WAA did an ok job. PPP put up a clunker.
Didnt PPP put out a 55-43 Holperin lead? That's mighty close to 54-46


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: krazen1211 on August 16, 2011, 10:12:35 pm
Didnt PPP put out a 55-43 Holperin lead? That's mighty close to 54-46

55-41. Florence is the strongest GOP county in the district and has yet to report.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Talleyrand on August 16, 2011, 10:13:34 pm
Inside Michigan Politics' pollster did the best. They had 53% Holperin 46% Simac.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Nhoj on August 16, 2011, 10:14:23 pm
Didnt PPP put out a 55-43 Holperin lead? That's mighty close to 54-46

55-41. Florence is the strongest GOP county in the district and has yet to report.
It also has only 4k people.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: krazen1211 on August 16, 2011, 10:17:32 pm
It also has only 4k people.

True enough. I guess an 8 point win is equidistant from both polls if it ends that way. Lincoln is allegedly hand-counting so it'll be a while.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Lief 🐋 on August 16, 2011, 10:29:51 pm
These election results represent a clear rebuke of Walker's politics and an embrace of the union agenda. They are very bad news for Scott Walker.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Jbrase on August 16, 2011, 11:04:18 pm
These election results represent a clear rebuke of Walker's politics and an embrace of the union agenda. They are very bad news for Scott Walker.

The Dems failed to take back the Senate, polls show less people favoring recall, and his approvals are not that bad. And if we look back a few months we can all remember the effort to take out Prosser failed. So I really don't see how you interpret this as some big embrace of the union agenda.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: TRIPLE ROCK on August 16, 2011, 11:08:44 pm
These election results represent a clear rebuke of Walker's politics and an embrace of the union agenda. They are very bad news for Scott Walker.

The Dems failed to take back the Senate, polls show less people favoring recall, and his approvals are not that bad. And if we look back a few months we can all remember the effort to take out Prosser failed. So I really don't see how you interpret this as some big embrace of the union agenda.

He's just parodying J. J.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: krazen1211 on August 16, 2011, 11:23:09 pm
Red Racing Horses, the conservative alternative to DKE, has their own polling operation now! They used We Ask America (http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/924/breaking-news-we-have-a-barn-burner-in-sd12-between-kim-simac-and-jim-holperin) and got a 51-49 Holperin lead. Unfortunately for them, their sample looks too independent-heavy (and zero undecideds always seems... unlikely).

WAA did an ok job. PPP put up a clunker.

Spoke too soon. Final result 55-45.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: J. J. on August 16, 2011, 11:52:34 pm
These election results represent a clear rebuke of Walker's politics and an embrace of the union agenda. They are very bad news for Scott Walker.

The Dems failed to take back the Senate, polls show less people favoring recall, and his approvals are not that bad. And if we look back a few months we can all remember the effort to take out Prosser failed. So I really don't see how you interpret this as some big embrace of the union agenda.



He's just parodying J. J.

I never mentioned the Walker poll and it took me a while to remember Prosser.

Not particularly good news for the Democrats; 'tis their summer of discontent.

It's interesting that I don't even have to mention these things for people to see it.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 17, 2011, 12:30:16 am
Good to see that PPP did well again ... :)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Eraserhead on August 17, 2011, 01:02:13 am
These election results represent a clear rebuke of Walker's politics and an embrace of the union agenda. They are very bad news for Scott Walker.

The Dems failed to take back the Senate, polls show less people favoring recall, and his approvals are not that bad. And if we look back a few months we can all remember the effort to take out Prosser failed. So I really don't see how you interpret this as some big embrace of the union agenda.



He's just parodying J. J.

I never mentioned the Walker poll and it took me a while to remember Prosser.

Not particularly good news for the Democrats; 'tis their summer of discontent.

It's interesting that I don't even have to mention these things for people to see it.

You can't be a real person.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Lief 🐋 on August 17, 2011, 01:15:05 am
I had expected the Republicans to pick up both seats, with comfortable margins of victory. The fact that they did not should be very worrying. These Democratic victories have the potential to ensure that no Republican ever wins an election in the United States ever again.

The results tonight may typify a changing attitude in the United States and indeed the Western world. They are not good news for the Republicans or conservatives, short term, and in the long term, may spell the beginning of the end for free market capitalism.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 17, 2011, 01:22:41 am
With Florence having another 1400 votes (55% for the Republican), the total result won't change. Holperin will win with about 30500 votes to 24800 votes, or 55.2%


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 17, 2011, 03:16:39 am
These election results represent a clear rebuke of Walker's politics and an embrace of the union agenda. They are very bad news for Scott Walker.

The Dems failed to take back the Senate, polls show less people favoring recall, and his approvals are not that bad. And if we look back a few months we can all remember the effort to take out Prosser failed. So I really don't see how you interpret this as some big embrace of the union agenda.



He's just parodying J. J.

I never mentioned the Walker poll and it took me a while to remember Prosser.

Not particularly good news for the Democrats; 'tis their summer of discontent.

It's interesting that I don't even have to mention these things for people to see it.

You can't be a real person.

Being a real person won't help you with the girls.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 17, 2011, 06:51:23 am
Final poll roundup:

SD-12
PPP: 55-41 Holperin (Holperin +14)
WAA: 51-49 Holperin (Holperin +2)
Final (more or less) result: 55-45 Holperin (Holperin +10)

PPP was off by 4, they weren't as far off as everyone thought. WAA was off by 8.

SD-22

PPP: 55-42 Wirch (Wirch +13)
Final result: 58-42 Wirch (Wirch +16)

And PPP underestimated Wirch a bit, but they were only off by 3.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Meeker on August 17, 2011, 08:12:35 am
Final poll roundup:

SD-12
PPP: 55-41 Holperin (Holperin +14)
WAA: 51-49 Holperin (Holperin +2)
Final (more or less) result: 55-45 Holperin (Holperin +10)

PPP was off by 4, they weren't as far off as everyone thought. WAA was off by 8.

SD-22

PPP: 55-42 Wirch (Wirch +13)
Final result: 58-42 Wirch (Wirch +16)

And PPP underestimated Wirch a bit, but they were only off by 3.

lulz Krazen


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 17, 2011, 08:48:02 am
Final poll roundup:

SD-12
PPP: 55-41 Holperin (Holperin +14)
WAA: 51-49 Holperin (Holperin +2)
Final (more or less) result: 55-45 Holperin (Holperin +10)

PPP was off by 4, they weren't as far off as everyone thought. WAA was off by 8.

SD-22

PPP: 55-42 Wirch (Wirch +13)
Final result: 58-42 Wirch (Wirch +16)

And PPP underestimated Wirch a bit, but they were only off by 3.

lulz Krazen

If we allocate the undecideds in both races, the polls become even more accurate. More Republicans than Democrats were undecided in the PPP polls, so we can assume that they broke slightly more in favor of the Republican candidates. If allocated, the PPP polls were within about 2% of the final results. I´m already waiting for CARLHAYDEN to tell us once again that PPP is the new R2K ... :P


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Seattle on August 17, 2011, 10:47:26 am
Comparing to 2008, I'm really surprised with Lincoln county's results. It went 49% for Holperin last time, but 60% this time, what's with the huge shift?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Invisible Obama on August 17, 2011, 10:10:28 pm
Kim Simac is way over the top and made poor candidate for a marginal seat, so that's the reason for the shift.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: J. J. on August 17, 2011, 10:31:56 pm
These election results represent a clear rebuke of Walker's politics and an embrace of the union agenda. They are very bad news for Scott Walker.

The Dems failed to take back the Senate, polls show less people favoring recall, and his approvals are not that bad. And if we look back a few months we can all remember the effort to take out Prosser failed. So I really don't see how you interpret this as some big embrace of the union agenda.



He's just parodying J. J.

I never mentioned the Walker poll and it took me a while to remember Prosser.

Not particularly good news for the Democrats; 'tis their summer of discontent.

It's interesting that I don't even have to mention these things for people to see it.

You can't be a real person.

I'm real.  You're just a liberal and can't tell the difference.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 13, 2011, 06:51:12 pm
Here we go again... (http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/senate-democrats-republicans-to-be-targeted-in-more-recalls-131797438.html)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: LastVoter on October 15, 2011, 04:50:01 am
Comparing to 2008, I'm really surprised with Lincoln county's results. It went 49% for Holperin last time, but 60% this time, what's with the huge shift?
This is completely off-topic, but this guy got a variation of my name.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 17, 2011, 01:30:12 pm
My guess is that the Democrats will be able to take the Senate with these recalls, yet only by a small margin. 3 of the 4 biggest targets defeated incumbents in 2010 which means there could be some buyers remorse. This is in comparison to most of the previous recalled candidates that were in a location of strength due to surviving the Obama wave.   

Van Wanggaard's district is centered in Racine, while while more conservative then the near by and often compared Kenosha district, is definitely a leaner to the left. If the Dems take any seats, it would be this one. Also while Terry Moulton in the Chippewa Falls area and Pam Galloway in the Wausau area could be good targets, but they represent a more mixed political district. The interesting race to look at if it were to occur would be Dale Schultz, who represents the Southwestern part of the state. This area of the state is traditionally more favorable to the Democrats and it swung back to that side during the 2011 Supreme Court election after going for Walker in 2010. Schultz is popular in his district and was seen as one of the few moderates for the Republicans during the special session in early 2011. Yet he did vote for all of the Republican legislation, so it is possible that opinion could have changed in his districts.

Also there will probably be attempts to recall representatives in the assembly, as there are many districts that normally vote in Democrats (Janesville and Beloit) that are currently represented by Republicans. Lastly, as expected, you'll see the Scott Walker recall which as of know looks like it could happen as poll numbers have been not been good for him, but things can obviously change here.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza (results in OP)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 17, 2011, 01:48:03 pm
After quickly looking over the election results from 2010 and the district maps for Wisconsin, here are the Assembly Districts that I think a recall election could possibly take place in:

District 26 – Sheboygan
District 28 – Amery
District 43 – Edgerton, Milton, Whitewater
District 44 – Janesville
District 45 – Beloit
District 49 – Boscobel, Platteville
District 51 – Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Sauk City/Prairie Du Sauk
District 68 – Northern Eau Claire
District 72 – Wisconsin Rapids
District 75 – Rice Lake
District 93 – Southern Eau Claire


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 05, 2011, 09:15:08 pm
Back again; Republican Sen. Terry Moulton is facing a recall. (http://chippewa.com/news/local/article_96176be0-1aae-11e1-833a-001cc4c03286.html) Organizers say they have 59% of the signatures needed to recall him.

It looks like there are also active recall campaigns against Scott Fitzgerald, Van Wanggard, and Pam Galloway, all Republicans. Except for Fitzgerald, they were all first elected in 2010.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 19, 2011, 06:46:08 pm
They've got enough signatures to recall Wanggard. (http://dane101.com/current/2011/12/19/total_recall_enough_signatures_for_wanggaard_recall_other_senate_recalls_close_or) Sounds like the Galloway and Moulton recalls are on track to succeed, not sure about the Fitzgerald one though.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Jbrase on December 27, 2011, 01:42:17 pm
I like unions, collective bargaining and all that fun stuff, but the Wisconsin Dems need to learn there are consequences to losing elections, among them are bills passing that you don't like. All these recalls are getting ridiculous.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on December 27, 2011, 05:10:21 pm
I like unions, collective bargaining and all that fun stuff, but the Wisconsin Dems need to learn there are consequences to losing elections, among them are bills passing that you don't like. All these recalls are getting ridiculous.

And Republicans need to know that votes have consequences too. 


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 27, 2011, 05:44:39 pm
I like unions, collective bargaining and all that fun stuff, but the Wisconsin Dems need to learn there are consequences to losing elections, among them are bills passing that you don't like. All these recalls are getting ridiculous.

And Republicans need to know that votes have consequences too.  

Yeah, ok. Then deliver the consequences at a regularly scheduled election. This never-ending legislative recall process has gotten very old and totally out of hand.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Invisible Obama on December 27, 2011, 06:11:56 pm
The moral of the story is, you don't overreach just because you have total control of the government. If Republicans don't like it, they should have thought twice about pulling the plug on collective bargaining. Recalls are approved by voter signatures and clearly enough voters are on board in many districts. That's how the process works.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 27, 2011, 06:15:36 pm
The moral of the story is, you don't overreach just because you have total control of the government. If Republicans don't like it, they should have thought twice about pulling the plug on collective bargaining. Recalls are approved by voter signatures and clearly enough voters are on board in many districts. That's how the process works.

I understand that that's the process. That doesn't mean that I can't think that the process is totally ridiculous.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 29, 2011, 02:05:27 pm
I like unions, collective bargaining and all that fun stuff, but the Wisconsin Dems need to learn there are consequences to losing elections, among them are bills passing that you don't like. All these recalls are getting ridiculous.

So they should just stand and do nothing while the capitalists destroy the livelihoods of the people?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Jbrase on December 30, 2011, 02:24:12 am
I like unions, collective bargaining and all that fun stuff, but the Wisconsin Dems need to learn there are consequences to losing elections, among them are bills passing that you don't like. All these recalls are getting ridiculous.

So they should just stand and do nothing while the capitalists destroy the livelihoods of the people?
That isn't exactly a fair characterization of what happened. Did public sector unions lose power? Of course. But that hardly warrants wasting state money in an never ending series of elections just to give the butt hurt Dems control again. The last round of recalls plus that race for the court seat proved that while yes, some people are rather pissed, by no means is it a vast majority of the state that wants all this nonsense.

I don't particularly care much for Walker, but I will be very much amused watching the Dem's  as they have to explain to the voters why they forced the state to waste money that could have been spent on other more beneficial things, in a failed effort to recall the Governor. But I guess on the bright side the state will have a little bit more money to throw away with the savings from that bill.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 17, 2012, 06:41:24 pm
Looks like all four Republican recalls are going ahead, they've got enough signatures for them. (http://gab.wi.gov/elections-voting/recall)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 31, 2012, 07:12:13 pm
Some Dem candidates running:

SD-21 (Van Wanggard) - ex-State Sen. John Lehman
SD-23 (Terry Moulton) - ex-State Rep. Kristin Dexter
SD-29 (Pam Galloway) - State Rep. Donna Seidel



Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: We Have A Pope on March 16, 2012, 01:06:49 pm
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/03/16/1074977/-Wisconsin-state-Sen-Pam-Galloway-R-facing-recall-will-resign (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/03/16/1074977/-Wisconsin-state-Sen-Pam-Galloway-R-facing-recall-will-resign)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: TJ in Wisco on March 16, 2012, 02:33:36 pm
Some quick numbers on the districts from the DRA (note the "avg" is close to a net of 52% Republican for the state so it's skewed):

SD-13 (Fitzgerald) McCain 50.9-47.8 "Avg" 62.6% Republican
SD-21 (Van Wanggard) Obama 55.3-43.4 "Avg" 54.2% Republican
SD-23 (Moulton) Obama 55.1-43.0 "Avg" 56.0% Republican
SD-29 (Galloway) Obama 53.4-44.7 "Avg" 57.0% Republican


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on March 16, 2012, 03:06:29 pm
Since these are "just another election" where anyone can file and challenge the incumbent, can another Republican just declare for Galloway's seat, or does the resignation cancel the recall since Galloway is gone, with Galloway being replaced by a special election?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Nhoj on March 16, 2012, 03:22:34 pm
Since these are "just another election" where anyone can file and challenge the incumbent, can another Republican just declare for Galloway's seat, or does the resignation cancel the recall since Galloway is gone, with Galloway being replaced by a special election?
The GAB says the recall will go on ahead just without her, and yes I am pretty sure any republican can file to run. Though I am not sure how you recall someone who is no longer there... so I wouldn't be shocked if the recall gets cancelled and a special election happens instead.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 17, 2012, 07:24:14 am
Wait, is there any difference?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 19, 2012, 05:00:22 pm
A couple more recalls of Republican Senators are being considered... by a right-wing group annoyed with their vote against a mining bill. (http://whbl.com/news/articles/2012/mar/19/more-recalls-considered-in-the-state-senate-over-failure-of-mining-bill/)


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 17, 2012, 04:27:06 pm
PPP/DK polling (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/04/17/1084147/-Wisconsin-state-Senate-recall-polls-paint-a-tough-picture-but-with-one-notable-bright-spot):

Quote
SD-21 (MoE: ±3.9%):

    John Lehman (D): 46
    Van Wanggaard (R-inc): 48
    Undecided: 5

SD-23 (MoE: ±3.6%):

    Kristin Dexter (D): 41
    Terry Moulton (R-inc): 51
    Undecided: 8

SD-29 (MoE: ±3.6%):

    Donna Seidel (D): 37
    Jerry Petrowski (R): 51
    Undecided: 12

SD-13 (MoE: ±3.5%):

    Lori Compas (D): 40
    Scott Fitzgerald (R-inc): 54
    Undecided: 6


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: krazen1211 on April 17, 2012, 06:29:32 pm
Clean and easy GOP sweep. Too bad for Randy Hopper's mistress.


The union buster Scott Walker will be vindicated by the populace.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on April 18, 2012, 11:48:06 am
If that's the case then the populace has collectively lost its mind, but we've established that that's the case in this country long since so I'll just ask: Why exactly do you expect Van Wanggaard's race to be 'easy'?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: krazen1211 on April 18, 2012, 11:55:39 am
If that's the case then the populace has collectively lost its mind, but we've established that that's the case in this country long since so I'll just ask: Why exactly do you expect Van Wanggaard's race to be 'easy'?

That district of course is a heavily GOP district in redistricting, but even the current district is only as Democratic as others that were already won by the GOP in prior recalls. Scott Walker is handily leading in that district 51-44.

The Wisconsin Senate is out of session in any case. The GOP has 2 very winnable districts ahead especially with Holperin retiring.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Napoleon on April 18, 2012, 01:05:30 pm
I told people these recalls were a waste of money even before the last round of semi-failure...this just gives Walker a claim to a stronger mandate and makes us look weak.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: krazen1211 on April 18, 2012, 01:37:49 pm
PPP/DK polling (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/04/17/1084147/-Wisconsin-state-Senate-recall-polls-paint-a-tough-picture-but-with-one-notable-bright-spot):

Quote
SD-21 (MoE: ±3.9%):

    John Lehman (D): 46
    Van Wanggaard (R-inc): 48
    Undecided: 5

SD-23 (MoE: ±3.6%):

    Kristin Dexter (D): 41
    Terry Moulton (R-inc): 51
    Undecided: 8

SD-29 (MoE: ±3.6%):

    Donna Seidel (D): 37
    Jerry Petrowski (R): 51
    Undecided: 12

SD-13 (MoE: ±3.5%):

    Lori Compas (D): 40
    Scott Fitzgerald (R-inc): 54
    Undecided: 6


If anyone wants to read a lot of very funny things, check out those comments! Lol!

Death of democracy!


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: krazen1211 on April 20, 2012, 01:18:09 pm
The GOP has a new improved candidate for the 18th district which was lost due to Randy Hopper's mistress.

http://rickgudexforsenate.com/

In addition of course in the unlikely even that the GOP loses the 21st the Democrat can be promptly recalled in a year's time.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: AmericanNation on April 23, 2012, 11:16:56 am
Since these are "just another election" where anyone can file and challenge the incumbent, can another Republican just declare for Galloway's seat, or does the resignation cancel the recall since Galloway is gone, with Galloway being replaced by a special election?
The GAB says the recall will go on ahead just without her, and yes I am pretty sure any republican can file to run. Though I am not sure how you recall someone who is no longer there... so I wouldn't be shocked if the recall gets cancelled and a special election happens instead.

1) The "recall" election can't "go away" from a resignation
2) you can't "recall" someone who has resigned.
3) you hold a "Special Election" in the event of a resignation
4) You should than hold a "Special Election" on the date (if easier) of the scheduled recall.
5) The Doyle appointed GAB will call this obvious "special election" a "recall" because they have managed to screw up an amazing number of easy things.  There is no real difference though.   


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Brittain33 on April 25, 2012, 10:41:27 am
The GOP has a new improved candidate for the 18th district which was lost due to Randy Hopper's mistress.

One of three city council members in a village of 687 people, cool.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: TJ in Wisco on April 25, 2012, 01:22:59 pm
The GOP has a new improved candidate for the 18th district which was lost due to Randy Hopper's mistress.

One of three city council members in a village of 687 people, cool.

Is he scandal-ridden? If not then he's an improvement.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 04, 2012, 05:28:32 pm
I guess I'll bump this thread, even though these recalls have had zero press.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on June 04, 2012, 05:33:22 pm
Where are the four districts located and are there any new polls for them?


How has the open seat and Van Wanggarrd's races been progressing this past month and some change?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: AmericanNation on June 04, 2012, 09:55:37 pm
Where are the four districts located and are there any new polls for them?


How has the open seat and Van Wanggarrd's races been progressing this past month and some change?

Van is probably slightly ahead in his Racine county district.

Fitzgerald will cruise easily.

The other two, in north west Wisconsin, I have no idea what is going on.  Maybe lean GOP.



Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: rbt48 on June 05, 2012, 10:21:29 pm
Walker will end up with more votes that the 1,128,941 that he received in the 2010 General Election.  Barrett won't get much more that 950,000.  He had 1,004,303 in 2010.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: LastVoter on June 05, 2012, 10:34:51 pm
I told people these recalls were a waste of money even before the last round of semi-failure...this just gives Walker a claim to a stronger mandate and makes us look weak.
No, this means that DNC doesn't care about fortunes of many people.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: rbt48 on June 05, 2012, 10:41:49 pm
It looks like Senate District 21 will determine if the State Senate is 17R - 16D or visa versa.  The Racine County district has the Republican leading 62 to 38 with about 22% of the precincts reporting.  AP has not yet called the race.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Meeker on June 05, 2012, 10:53:15 pm
Comparing the precincts in that are in so far in SD-21 to their 2010 results actually has the Democrat doing well enough to win the seat if it's extrapolated out. No telling whether that will hold once the remaining 78% of precincts come in though.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Meeker on June 05, 2012, 11:07:31 pm
... and now he's 1/4 of a percent below where he needs to be with a few more precincts reporting. Won't know this one for a while at the rate Racine County is counting.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: LastVoter on June 05, 2012, 11:25:09 pm
... and now he's 1/4 of a percent below where he needs to be with a few more precincts reporting. Won't know this one for a while at the rate Racine County is counting.
How do you know which precincts are reporting, I thought you could only see the total county report?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Meeker on June 05, 2012, 11:32:29 pm
... and now he's 1/4 of a percent below where he needs to be with a few more precincts reporting. Won't know this one for a while at the rate Racine County is counting.
How do you know which precincts are reporting, I thought you could only see the total county report?

http://www.elections.racineco.com/voting/index.aspx


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Seattle on June 05, 2012, 11:35:40 pm
It's now 45-55 (D-R)  with 28/60.



Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Lief 🐋 on June 05, 2012, 11:46:10 pm
The Democrat is running 3% better than he did in 2010 in SD-21 so far; he needs to do 2.55% to win the seat.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Nichlemn on June 06, 2012, 12:11:14 am
The media coverage if Dems take the state senate will be quite interesting, given that the Republicans got all the positive spin early on.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Lief 🐋 on June 06, 2012, 12:25:28 am
new batch of votes came in, daily kos elections says:

Quote
5th Update on SD-21: Lehman keeps floating around the cusp of where he needs to be, +2.4 now. There are 12 precincts left in the City of Racine for him, while there are 3 precincts left in Mt Pleasant and all of Waterford.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Meeker on June 06, 2012, 01:10:40 am
We won! The Democrat is ahead by 900 votes with one precinct left.

:D


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: cinyc on June 06, 2012, 01:16:34 am
We won! The Democrat is ahead by 900 votes with one precinct left.

:D

It's not even close to over.  I have the Democrat up by 796 votes with two precincts left.  One of the precincts gave Walker a 800 vote margin in 2010... So...


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Meeker on June 06, 2012, 01:19:06 am
We won! The Democrat is ahead by 900 votes with one precinct left.

:D

It's not even close to over.  I have the Democrat up by 796 votes with two precincts left.  One of the precincts gave Walker a 800 vote margin in 2010... So...

Local paper disagrees: http://www.journaltimes.com/racine-county-recall-election-results/html_3bf1be68-ae8d-11e1-bcb9-001a4bcf887a.html


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Meeker on June 06, 2012, 01:20:58 am
Lehman and the DLCC have declared victory


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Lief 🐋 on June 06, 2012, 01:22:26 am
Good news. Certainly complicates the narrative.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: greenforest32 on June 06, 2012, 01:26:20 am
Didn't redistricting screw Democrats in the Wisconsin legislature? How likely are they to hold/gain chambers in Nov. 2012?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Nichlemn on June 06, 2012, 01:26:26 am
Republicans could spin that they won all the other recalls and they have the bigger "mandate" because the whole state got to vote in the gubernatorial recall, as opposed to having to having to only play defense and succeed all the way for the state Senate.

What could Democratic control of the state Senate do at this point, though? Haven't the big ticket bills already been passed so all they can do is obstruct new things unless they can somehow bargain to undo what's been done?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: cinyc on June 06, 2012, 01:28:16 am
We won! The Democrat is ahead by 900 votes with one precinct left.

:D

It's not even close to over.  I have the Democrat up by 796 votes with two precincts left.  One of the precincts gave Walker a 800 vote margin in 2010... So...

Local paper disagrees: http://www.journaltimes.com/racine-county-recall-election-results/html_3bf1be68-ae8d-11e1-bcb9-001a4bcf887a.html

825 doesn't equal 900 - and is closer to my 796 tally.

Anyway, if the missing precinct is the village of Waterford, it went to Walker by 854 and Kleefisch by 809 in this election.  The results for the SD-21 race are still missing.  Regardless of whether the margin is 796 or 825, it should be razor thin and go to absentees and a recount.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: LastVoter on June 06, 2012, 01:28:21 am
Walker can talk about his mandate all day now, but it doesn't matter, with 17 Democrats in the Senate until November and the upcoming trials, he will be playing defense this summer & fall.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on June 06, 2012, 01:32:30 am
Didn't redistricting screw Democrats in the Wisconsin legislature? How likely are they to hold/gain chambers in Nov. 2012?

Were it not for Randy Hopper's extracurricular activities, control of the State Senate would have never been put in doubt. The Republicans made it somewhat more Republican and they have a more suitable candidate for that.

I am not yet so sure about the Racine race, Cinyc knows his business on these things and declaring victory isn't always the safest indication of who won, but more so of who is more willing to fight tooth and nail if a potential recount gets bloody.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Meeker on June 06, 2012, 01:38:36 am
We won! The Democrat is ahead by 900 votes with one precinct left.

:D

It's not even close to over.  I have the Democrat up by 796 votes with two precincts left.  One of the precincts gave Walker a 800 vote margin in 2010... So...

Local paper disagrees: http://www.journaltimes.com/racine-county-recall-election-results/html_3bf1be68-ae8d-11e1-bcb9-001a4bcf887a.html

825 doesn't equal 900 - and is closer to my 796 tally.

Anyway, if the missing precinct is the village of Waterford, it went to Walker by 854 and Kleefisch by 809 in this election.  The results for the SD-21 race are still missing.  Regardless of whether the margin is 796 or 825, it should be razor thin and go to absentees and a recount.

It's not in Waterford; it's a precinct in Mount Pleasent that Walker won by less than 100 votes in 2010 (933-853 to be exact).

Lehman will finish election night ahead by at least 650 votes.


Title: Democrats win Wisconsin State Senate
Post by: Meeker on June 06, 2012, 01:43:33 am
Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: cinyc on June 06, 2012, 01:45:52 am
We won! The Democrat is ahead by 900 votes with one precinct left.

:D

It's not even close to over.  I have the Democrat up by 796 votes with two precincts left.  One of the precincts gave Walker a 800 vote margin in 2010... So...

Local paper disagrees: http://www.journaltimes.com/racine-county-recall-election-results/html_3bf1be68-ae8d-11e1-bcb9-001a4bcf887a.html

825 doesn't equal 900 - and is closer to my 796 tally.

Anyway, if the missing precinct is the village of Waterford, it went to Walker by 854 and Kleefisch by 809 in this election.  The results for the SD-21 race are still missing.  Regardless of whether the margin is 796 or 825, it should be razor thin and go to absentees and a recount.

It's not in Waterford; it's a precinct in Mount Pleasent that Walker won by less than 100 votes in 2010 (933-853 to be exact).

Lehman will finish election night ahead by at least 650 votes.

I think Waterford isn't in SD-21, despite what Racine County Elections' website says.  That would explain the discrepancy.


Title: Re: Democrats win Wisconsin State Senate
Post by: LastVoter on June 06, 2012, 01:46:38 am
Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   
Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?


Title: Re: Democrats win Wisconsin State Senate
Post by: Meeker on June 06, 2012, 01:51:08 am
Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   
Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

No State Senate Democrat who wants any political future whatsoever will touch anything that comes out of Scott Walker's office.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on June 06, 2012, 01:57:55 am
I expected the Walker win but I did not expect this.  Well, this is good news. :)


Title: Re: Democrats win Wisconsin State Senate
Post by: LastVoter on June 06, 2012, 01:58:49 am
Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   
Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

No State Senate Democrat who wants any political future whatsoever will touch anything that comes out of Scott Walker's office.
Great, I was afraid there would be an old relic left over, a conservative blue-dog hidden in the ranks. Wisconsin will have 5 months to think about the job losses, the John Doe investigation, and overall divisiveness of the Walker administration without the 24/7 assault of the airwaves by right-wing PACs.


Title: Re: Democrats win Wisconsin State Senate
Post by: Meeker on June 06, 2012, 02:17:47 am
Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   
Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

No State Senate Democrat who wants any political future whatsoever will touch anything that comes out of Scott Walker's office.

Another way of looking at this is that the Democratic State Senate caucus now consists of the Wisconsin 14 (who left for Illinois in 2011 to stall the collective bargaining bill) and three recall winners. Pretty safely anti-Walker crew.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: ajc0918 on June 06, 2012, 02:30:14 am
Well this certainly brightens things up just a bit.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: LastVoter on June 06, 2012, 03:07:10 am
Well this certainly brightens things up just a bit.
Honestly I think this is a pretty good outcome, we moved the goalposts to a Barrett win with that retarded exit poll, when we were actually expecting a narrow loss. The loss was a little more than narrow, but we still managed to block Walker's future agenda despite the amount of money poured into the state.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on June 06, 2012, 03:32:51 am
Here's an interesting thing about Prop. 29. So it's at 49.5%, and tends to be winning the more liberal counties (although it is losing in LA county), and losing in the red county. Except that it has 70% of the vote (fully reporting) in Tehama county, a 60% McCain county. I guess they just hate smoking there or something.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Tender Branson on June 06, 2012, 04:02:13 am
So, do the WI Dems control the State Senate again with this 1 pickup ?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Griff on June 06, 2012, 04:05:42 am
So, do the WI Dems control the State Senate again with this 1 pickup ?

Yes, 17/16. The 17 Democrats - as mentioned - are all solidly Democratic and will be very likely to oppose any and every Walker policy put forth.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Tender Branson on June 06, 2012, 04:11:27 am
So, do the WI Dems control the State Senate again with this 1 pickup ?

Yes, 17/16. The 17 Democrats - as mentioned - are all solidly Democratic and will be very likely to oppose any and every Walker policy put forth.

But only for the next 1/2 year ... :P


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Griff on June 06, 2012, 04:22:45 am
We'll see what happens. The fall should be more favorable for Democratic candidates at the state level. Turnout was about 350,000 below where it needed to be for Barrett to win.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Silent Hunter on June 06, 2012, 04:38:04 am
With this result, I think the 2012 general is going to a lot closer than I thought a few months ago.


Title: Re: Democrats win Wisconsin State Senate
Post by: muon2 on June 06, 2012, 06:45:00 am
Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   
Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

Nothing was going to happen anyway. The WI legislature is done until Jan 2013 and the new body is inaugurated.


Title: Re: Democrats win Wisconsin State Senate
Post by: Tender Branson on June 06, 2012, 06:53:56 am
Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   
Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

Nothing was going to happen anyway. The WI legislature is done until Jan 2013 and the new body is inaugurated.

So, the representatives in the Senate/House are paid for --- doing nothing in the next 7 months ?


Title: Re: Democrats win Wisconsin State Senate
Post by: muon2 on June 06, 2012, 07:16:03 am
Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   
Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

Nothing was going to happen anyway. The WI legislature is done until Jan 2013 and the new body is inaugurated.

So, the representatives in the Senate/House are paid for --- doing nothing in the next 7 months ?

Like many states the WI legislators get an annual salary even though the legislative days in the capital make up a few months of the year. In WI the salary is $49,943. During the non-legislative months members are working in their districts with constituents and attending occasional committee hearings on subjects not related to specific legislation.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Torie on June 06, 2012, 08:06:46 am
Quote
members are [supposed to be] working in their districts with constituents and attending occasional committee hearings on subjects not related to specific legislation.

Perhaps my little edit makes Muon2's statement a tad more accurate, no?  :P


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: AmericanNation on June 06, 2012, 08:13:09 am
Well this certainly brightens things up just a bit.
Honestly I think this is a pretty good outcome, we moved the goalposts to a Barrett win with that retarded exit poll, when we were actually expecting a narrow loss. The loss was a little more than narrow, but we still managed to block Walker's future agenda despite the amount of money poured into the state.
Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   
Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?
No State Senate Democrat who wants any political future whatsoever will touch anything that comes out of Scott Walker's office.

State Senate is likely to go more GOP in November, Wisconsin has one of the most powerful Governorships in the country, and Democrats will really get wiped out if they keep this temper tantrum going by blocking popular/necessary legislation.  You have to get serious at some point.

 


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Brittain33 on June 06, 2012, 08:22:06 am
Democrats will really get wiped out if they keep this temper tantrum going by blocking popular/necessary legislation.  You have to get serious at some point.

Thanks for the advice, but given the trend in the WI legislature isn't toward the Dems being "wiped out", that Obama's going to be on the ballot in November, not to mention how well obstruction's worked for Republicans in Congress, Dems might not take it in the sincere spirit in which it's being offered.


Title: Re: Democrats win Wisconsin State Senate
Post by: krazen1211 on June 06, 2012, 08:34:04 am
Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   
Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

Nothing was going to happen anyway. The WI legislature is done until Jan 2013 and the new body is inaugurated.


In any case, this Lehman guy will simply be recalled in June 2013. He now has one of the reddest districts in the state.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: AmericanNation on June 06, 2012, 09:48:19 am
Democrats will really get wiped out if they keep this temper tantrum going by blocking popular/necessary legislation.  You have to get serious at some point.

Thanks for the advice, but given the trend in the WI legislature isn't toward the Dems being "wiped out", that Obama's going to be on the ballot in November, not to mention how well obstruction's worked for Republicans in Congress, Dems might not take it in the sincere spirit in which it's being offered.

In any case, this Lehman guy will simply be recalled in June 2013. He now has one of the reddest districts in the state.
The Jim Doyle GAB made this round of recalls occur in districts that no longer exist.  Good luck in actual districts this November.  

Obama will only help (if at all) in solid seats, so that's irrelevant.  

Republicans in congress have obstructed UNpopular measures and it isn't like anything serious has been purposed/pushed by democrats anyway.  Walker is a workhorse and will push his agenda/the state forward -- quite a distinct difference. 

If stuff like the mining bill (wildly popular/important) get's obstructed again, you will see dem state senators punished.  That is why a few Ds will play ball.  Not everyone will keep drinking the kool-aid.     

Nice try.          


Title: Re: Democrats win Wisconsin State Senate
Post by: TJ in Wisco on June 06, 2012, 09:57:17 am
Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   
Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

Nothing was going to happen anyway. The WI legislature is done until Jan 2013 and the new body is inaugurated.


In any case, this Lehman guy will simply be recalled in June 2013. He now has one of the reddest districts in the state.

Wow... there's now way a Democrat will win the  new SD-21 (http://media.jsonline.com/images/REDIST09G%28ONLINE%29.jpg) in November once Kenosha and Racine are both in SD-22.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Vosem on June 06, 2012, 10:06:35 am
Democrats will really get wiped out if they keep this temper tantrum going by blocking popular/necessary legislation.  You have to get serious at some point.

Thanks for the advice, but given the trend in the WI legislature isn't toward the Dems being "wiped out", that Obama's going to be on the ballot in November, not to mention how well obstruction's worked for Republicans in Congress, Dems might not take it in the sincere spirit in which it's being offered.

You're forgetting redistricting, which was passed by Walker and the Fitzgeralds. It's a virtual certainty Republicans retake the Senate in November (unless Democrats get lucky and it's a Dem landslide year, in which case they'll have to wait for the inevitable snapback in 2014).


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Brittain33 on June 06, 2012, 10:20:24 am
Democrats will really get wiped out if they keep this temper tantrum going by blocking popular/necessary legislation.  You have to get serious at some point.

Thanks for the advice, but given the trend in the WI legislature isn't toward the Dems being "wiped out", that Obama's going to be on the ballot in November, not to mention how well obstruction's worked for Republicans in Congress, Dems might not take it in the sincere spirit in which it's being offered.

You're forgetting redistricting, which was passed by Walker and the Fitzgeralds. It's a virtual certainty Republicans retake the Senate in November (unless Democrats get lucky and it's a Dem landslide year, in which case they'll have to wait for the inevitable snapback in 2014).

Ok, so the Dems suffering "backlash" and punishment for their behavior isn't the driving factor.


Title: Re: Democrats win Wisconsin State Senate
Post by: AmericanNation on June 06, 2012, 10:51:48 am
Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   
Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

Nothing was going to happen anyway. The WI legislature is done until Jan 2013 and the new body is inaugurated.


In any case, this Lehman guy will simply be recalled in June 2013. He now has one of the reddest districts in the state.

Wow... there's now way a Democrat will win the  new SD-21 (http://media.jsonline.com/images/REDIST09G%28ONLINE%29.jpg) in November once Kenosha and Racine are both in SD-22.
Exactly.  That is the district Van is currently representing and he had to run in a "make believe district", Jim Doyle hacks are still messing up this state. 


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: AmericanNation on June 06, 2012, 11:02:58 am
Ok, so the Dems suffering "backlash" and punishment for their behavior isn't the driving factor.
I said "IF" they "continue" their behavior.  They haven't decided to keep the inmates in charge of the asylum yet.  Adults could appear in the wis-dem party, Walker did offer an olive branch and he is a man of extreme integrity.  That is "one factor", not necessarily the "only/driving factor."   


Title: Re: Democrats win Wisconsin State Senate
Post by: Kevinstat on June 06, 2012, 09:03:59 pm
Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   
Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

Nothing was going to happen anyway. The WI legislature is done until Jan 2013 and the new body is inaugurated.


In any case, this Lehman guy will simply be recalled in June 2013. He now has one of the reddest districts in the state.

Wow... there's now way a Democrat will win the  new SD-21 (http://media.jsonline.com/images/REDIST09G%28ONLINE%29.jpg) in November once Kenosha and Racine are both in SD-22.
Exactly.  That is the district Van is currently representing and he had to run in a "make believe district", Jim Doyle hacks are still messing up this state.  

Until the Senators elected this November are sworn in (for their new terms) all State Senators in Wisconsin were supposed (absent any resignations and/or recalls) to represent the "old" districts.  While the next time the Senate meets will be after half (or just over or just under) of the Senators will have been elected from new districts, the other roughly half of the Senators (if not for this years recalls and that Republican State Senator who resigned) will have begun their still-current term at a time when everybody was representing the old districts.  Wanggard was elected in 2010 from the same district being used in the recall.  I'm glad their were some "Jim Doyle hacks" to prevent an incorrect decision to use the new district boundaries for the recall elections which are recalling people who represent the old districts.

Now I think all State Senators should be up in '2' year elections like in Illinois (unless you have two Senators from each district, each one elected every other even year like in West Virginia, where one Senator will represent each old district and one Senator could represent each new district from the 2012 to 2014 elections), but in the existing case in Wisconsin using the old districts for recalls before November makes more sense.  I'd argue the same even for 2013 recalls and specials in seats where the last regularly scheduled election was in 2010, but it would be more open to interpretation.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Torie on June 06, 2012, 09:22:56 pm
Quote
to prevent an incorrect decision to use the new district boundaries for the recall elections which are recalling people who represent the old districts.

I agree with the above. He's absolutely right.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Meeker on June 06, 2012, 09:31:11 pm
Yeah, having a new set of voters recall someone that a different set of voters elected is pretty obviously not a fair thing.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Gass3268 on June 07, 2012, 12:09:10 am
There are really only two Senate races that matter in the fall and that is 12th and the 18th. The 12th is the Northwoods area in far Northeastern Wisconsin that is currently represented by Jim Holperin. Senator Holperin is retiring so this will be an open seat. This district went to Obama 52.2% to 46.2% but went to the GOP in 2010 58.8% to 41.2%. Unless the Democrats are able to recruit a local superstar or the Republicans nominate a criminal, this seat is going to flip. The 18th was one of the 2 seats that were successfully recalled last year, due in large part to Senator Hopper's affair. This district is a combination of the Oshkosh and Fon du Lac areas. It went for Obama 51.2% to 47.3 in 2008 before reverting back to the Republicans 58.7% to 41.3% in 2010. My guess is this seat will flip back in November.

The other two wild card seats would be the 30th and 32nd. The 30th is represented by Dave Hansen who represents the city of Green Bay up to Marinette on the border with Michigan. His district went Republican in 2010 and probably in the Walker recall, but he was able to battle off his own recall and he seems to be popular in his district. The 32nd was the other successful recall district won by Jennifer Shilling. This is a Western Mississippi River district composing of La Crosse County, Crawford Count, most of Vernon County and part of Monroe County. Even though this district was a recall victory, it is an area that based off voting history should be controlled by the Democrats and I don't see any change in November.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: LastVoter on June 07, 2012, 04:06:16 am
There are really only two Senate races that matter in the fall and that is 12th and the 18th. The 12th is the Northwoods area in far Northeastern Wisconsin that is currently represented by Jim Holperin. Senator Holperin is retiring so this will be an open seat. This district went to Obama 52.2% to 46.2% but went to the GOP in 2010 58.8% to 41.2%. Unless the Democrats are able to recruit a local superstar or the Republicans nominate a criminal, this seat is going to flip. The 18th was one of the 2 seats that were successfully recalled last year, due in large part to Senator Hopper's affair. This district is a combination of the Oshkosh and Fon du Lac areas. It went for Obama 51.2% to 47.3 in 2008 before reverting back to the Republicans 58.7% to 41.3% in 2010. My guess is this seat will flip back in November.

The other two wild card seats would be the 30th and 32nd. The 30th is represented by Dave Hansen who represents the city of Green Bay up to Marinette on the border with Michigan. His district went Republican in 2010 and probably in the Walker recall, but he was able to battle off his own recall and he seems to be popular in his district. The 32nd was the other successful recall district won by Jennifer Shilling. This is a Western Mississippi River district composing of La Crosse County, Crawford Count, most of Vernon County and part of Monroe County. Even though this district was a recall victory, it is an area that based off voting history should be controlled by the Democrats and I don't see any change in November.
So democrats need to pick up another seat than to replace the retiring Senator?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 07, 2012, 05:39:27 am
Yeah, having a new set of voters recall someone that a different set of voters elected is pretty obviously not a fair thing.
Having two Senate maps in place at the same time is pretty obviously not a fair thing no matter what. The scenario here just shows off the absurdity a little clearer.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Torie on June 07, 2012, 01:32:25 pm
As a capstone to it all, here (http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/301975/msnbc-struggles-jonah-goldberg) one can savor a montage of  MSNBC's "coverage" of election night in Wisconsin.  I just wish one could have Maddow and Hannity in the same room as a reporting "team" of it all. Maybe they should get a room. They have a lot in common. :P  And then there is that fat guy. Oh dear. From what rock did he slither out from under?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Gass3268 on June 07, 2012, 01:42:43 pm
As a capstone to it all, here (http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/301975/msnbc-struggles-jonah-goldberg) one can savor a montage of  MSNBC's "coverage" of election night in Wisconsin.  I just wish one could have Maddow and Hannity in the same room as a reporting "team" of it all. Maybe they should get a room. They have a lot in common. :P  And then there is that fat guy. Oh dear. From what rock did he slither out from under?

I had the same idea during the 2008 Presidential elections.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Gass3268 on June 07, 2012, 01:45:09 pm
There are really only two Senate races that matter in the fall and that is 12th and the 18th. The 12th is the Northwoods area in far Northeastern Wisconsin that is currently represented by Jim Holperin. Senator Holperin is retiring so this will be an open seat. This district went to Obama 52.2% to 46.2% but went to the GOP in 2010 58.8% to 41.2%. Unless the Democrats are able to recruit a local superstar or the Republicans nominate a criminal, this seat is going to flip. The 18th was one of the 2 seats that were successfully recalled last year, due in large part to Senator Hopper's affair. This district is a combination of the Oshkosh and Fon du Lac areas. It went for Obama 51.2% to 47.3 in 2008 before reverting back to the Republicans 58.7% to 41.3% in 2010. My guess is this seat will flip back in November.

The other two wild card seats would be the 30th and 32nd. The 30th is represented by Dave Hansen who represents the city of Green Bay up to Marinette on the border with Michigan. His district went Republican in 2010 and probably in the Walker recall, but he was able to battle off his own recall and he seems to be popular in his district. The 32nd was the other successful recall district won by Jennifer Shilling. This is a Western Mississippi River district composing of La Crosse County, Crawford Count, most of Vernon County and part of Monroe County. Even though this district was a recall victory, it is an area that based off voting history should be controlled by the Democrats and I don't see any change in November.
So democrats need to pick up another seat than to replace the retiring Senator?

There really isn't any other competitive seats out there. The only thing the Democrats can do is try to defend the 12th and 18th which will be really hard to do, barring 2012 becoming a Democratic wave year, which is obviously doubtful.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: AmericanNation on June 07, 2012, 09:27:34 pm
There are really only two Senate races that matter in the fall and that is 12th and the 18th. The 12th is the Northwoods area in far Northeastern Wisconsin that is currently represented by Jim Holperin. Senator Holperin is retiring so this will be an open seat. This district went to Obama 52.2% to 46.2% but went to the GOP in 2010 58.8% to 41.2%. Unless the Democrats are able to recruit a local superstar or the Republicans nominate a criminal, this seat is going to flip. The 18th was one of the 2 seats that were successfully recalled last year, due in large part to Senator Hopper's affair. This district is a combination of the Oshkosh and Fon du Lac areas. It went for Obama 51.2% to 47.3 in 2008 before reverting back to the Republicans 58.7% to 41.3% in 2010. My guess is this seat will flip back in November.

The other two wild card seats would be the 30th and 32nd. The 30th is represented by Dave Hansen who represents the city of Green Bay up to Marinette on the border with Michigan. His district went Republican in 2010 and probably in the Walker recall, but he was able to battle off his own recall and he seems to be popular in his district. The 32nd was the other successful recall district won by Jennifer Shilling. This is a Western Mississippi River district composing of La Crosse County, Crawford Count, most of Vernon County and part of Monroe County. Even though this district was a recall victory, it is an area that based off voting history should be controlled by the Democrats and I don't see any change in November.
So democrats need to pick up another seat than to replace the retiring Senator?

There really isn't any other competitive seats out there. The only thing the Democrats can do is try to defend the 12th and 18th which will be really hard to do, barring 2012 becoming a Democratic wave year, which is obviously doubtful.
So, republicans will
1) fill the vacant Pam Galloway seat
2) pick up the seat Holperin is vacating.
AND pick up 1 to 2 others?
Fond du Lac and La Crosse

GOP+ 3to4 before they're back in session. 


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Gass3268 on June 08, 2012, 03:03:50 am
There are really only two Senate races that matter in the fall and that is 12th and the 18th. The 12th is the Northwoods area in far Northeastern Wisconsin that is currently represented by Jim Holperin. Senator Holperin is retiring so this will be an open seat. This district went to Obama 52.2% to 46.2% but went to the GOP in 2010 58.8% to 41.2%. Unless the Democrats are able to recruit a local superstar or the Republicans nominate a criminal, this seat is going to flip. The 18th was one of the 2 seats that were successfully recalled last year, due in large part to Senator Hopper's affair. This district is a combination of the Oshkosh and Fon du Lac areas. It went for Obama 51.2% to 47.3 in 2008 before reverting back to the Republicans 58.7% to 41.3% in 2010. My guess is this seat will flip back in November.

The other two wild card seats would be the 30th and 32nd. The 30th is represented by Dave Hansen who represents the city of Green Bay up to Marinette on the border with Michigan. His district went Republican in 2010 and probably in the Walker recall, but he was able to battle off his own recall and he seems to be popular in his district. The 32nd was the other successful recall district won by Jennifer Shilling. This is a Western Mississippi River district composing of La Crosse County, Crawford Count, most of Vernon County and part of Monroe County. Even though this district was a recall victory, it is an area that based off voting history should be controlled by the Democrats and I don't see any change in November.
So democrats need to pick up another seat than to replace the retiring Senator?

There really isn't any other competitive seats out there. The only thing the Democrats can do is try to defend the 12th and 18th which will be really hard to do, barring 2012 becoming a Democratic wave year, which is obviously doubtful.
So, republicans will
1) fill the vacant Pam Galloway seat
2) pick up the seat Holperin is vacating.
AND pick up 1 to 2 others?
Fond du Lac and La Crosse

GOP+ 3to4 before they're back in session. 

1) They just did that in the recall election by electing Jerry Petrowski to the 29th/Wausau seat. My guess is that he'll win by a slightly smaller margin in November.

2) Yup, the 12th is going to be really hard to hold without Senator Holperin.

3) Fond du Lac/Oshkosh seat is probably going to flip back. Jessica King almost did win in 2008, so she seems to be somewhat popular for the district, but at R+7, the 18th will more than likely flip back.

4) I doubt the 32nd/La Cross district will flip back. This is a D+2 district with 2/3rds of the Assembly seats in the district controlled by Dems.

So by January of 2013 the State Senate will probably be 18-15 in favor of the GOP.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: AmericanNation on June 08, 2012, 09:40:05 am
Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 



Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: TJ in Wisco on June 08, 2012, 11:01:28 am
Don't forget about the Racine seat the Democrats just took this week. Under the new map it looses the city Racine to SD-22 and picks up the rural parts of SD-22. That should be a very safe Republican pick-up.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: AmericanNation on June 08, 2012, 01:59:54 pm
Don't forget about the Racine seat the Democrats just took this week. Under the new map it looses the city Racine to SD-22 and picks up the rural parts of SD-22. That should be a very safe Republican pick-up.
I think it's up in 2014.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Gass3268 on June 08, 2012, 07:20:52 pm
Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 



Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November. 


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Mr.Phips on June 08, 2012, 10:25:07 pm
Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 



Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November. 

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude. 


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: AmericanNation on June 10, 2012, 05:14:11 pm
Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November. 

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude. 
Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.     


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Mr.Phips on June 10, 2012, 07:09:29 pm
Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November. 

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude. 
Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.     

Why would a strongly Dem district turn out a decent Democratic like Jenn Shilling for Kapanke, who is a very poor fit for the district?


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: krazen1211 on June 11, 2012, 12:03:49 pm
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/05/wisconsin-dems-dispute-the-marquette-poll.php

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/09/wisconsin-recall-polls-tom-barrett-partisan-polls_n_1581919.html

Wisconsin Democrats are firing back at the latest Marquette University Law School poll of the state recall election, which put Republican Gov. Scott Walker ahead of Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett by a 7-point margin — in an effort to tamp down negative public perception as they head into the election’s final week.




Pretty funny stuff.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: AmericanNation on June 11, 2012, 01:55:15 pm
Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November. 

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude. 
Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.     

Why would a strongly Dem district turn out a decent Democratic like Jenn Shilling for Kapanke, who is a very poor fit for the district?
It isn't a "strongly Dem district."  It is a 'volatile' (will flip occasionally) lean dem district that voted for Scott Walker a week ago.  I don't know Shilling, but off the top of my head she voted against the mining bill at least twice, which is a pretty good indicator that she is a hyper partisan hack or ignorant.  Kapanke is often described as "being his district / he IS his district" so I don't know how you get "very poor fit."  Doesn't he own several businesses and the local baseball team?             


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Mr.Phips on June 11, 2012, 02:15:46 pm
Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close.  
Is Kapanke running again?  
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him.  

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November.  

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude.  
Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.    

Why would a strongly Dem district turn out a decent Democratic like Jenn Shilling for Kapanke, who is a very poor fit for the district?
It isn't a "strongly Dem district."  It is a 'volatile' (will flip occasionally) lean dem district that voted for Scott Walker a week ago.  I don't know Shilling, but off the top of my head she voted against the mining bill at least twice, which is a pretty good indicator that she is a hyper partisan hack or ignorant.  Kapanke is often described as "being his district / he IS his district" so I don't know how you get "very poor fit."  Doesn't he own several businesses and the local baseball team?              

It is a district that Obama got 61% in and even Kerry got 53% in.  Walker won it by one point when he was winning statewide by seven points.  That's like saying WA-05 is a swing district because it voted for Maria Cantwell.  

The district is Democratic enough that it voted by two points for Russ Feingold when he was losing statewide by five points. 


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: AmericanNation on June 11, 2012, 02:59:16 pm
Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close.  
Is Kapanke running again?  
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him.  

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November.  

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude.  
Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.    

Why would a strongly Dem district turn out a decent Democratic like Jenn Shilling for Kapanke, who is a very poor fit for the district?
It isn't a "strongly Dem district."  It is a 'volatile' (will flip occasionally) lean dem district that voted for Scott Walker a week ago.  I don't know Shilling, but off the top of my head she voted against the mining bill at least twice, which is a pretty good indicator that she is a hyper partisan hack or ignorant.  Kapanke is often described as "being his district / he IS his district" so I don't know how you get "very poor fit."  Doesn't he own several businesses and the local baseball team?              

It is a district that Obama got 61% in and even Kerry got 53% in.  Walker won it by one point when he was winning statewide by seven points.  That's like saying WA-05 is a swing district because it voted for Maria Cantwell.  

The district is Democratic enough that it voted by two points for Russ Feingold when he was losing statewide by five points. 
So:
Kerry by 6% in 2004
Feingold by 2% in 2010
Walker by 1% in 2012
Obviously a completely safe dem seat. in November. 


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Niemeyerite on June 11, 2012, 05:18:23 pm
Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close. 
Is Kapanke running again? 
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him. 

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November. 

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude. 
Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.     

Why would a strongly Dem district turn out a decent Democratic like Jenn Shilling for Kapanke, who is a very poor fit for the district?
It isn't a "strongly Dem district."  It is a 'volatile' (will flip occasionally) lean dem district that voted for Scott Walker a week ago.  I don't know Shilling, but off the top of my head she voted against the mining bill at least twice, which is a pretty good indicator that she is a hyper partisan hack or ignorant.  Kapanke is often described as "being his district / he IS his district" so I don't know how you get "very poor fit."  Doesn't he own several businesses and the local baseball team?             

It is a district that Obama got 61% in and even Kerry got 53% in.  Walker won it by one point when he was winning statewide by seven points.  That's like saying WA-05 is a swing district because it voted for Maria Cantwell. 

The district is Democratic enough that it voted by two points for Russ Feingold when he was losing statewide by five points. 
So:
Kerry by 6% in 2004
Feingold by 2% in 2010
Walker by 1% in 2012
Obviously a completely safe dem seat. in November. 

You forgot something bewteen 2004 and 2010. Obama by 22. And Walker won it by 1% in 2010, not sure about 2012.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: BigSkyBob on June 14, 2012, 12:48:41 pm
Evidence of vote fraud uncovered:

http://www.maciverinstitute.com/2012/06/curious-election-documents-found-in-dumpster-in-racine-sheriffs-department-investigating/

With signed, precertified forms there would be no impediment to bussing in people from out of state to vote in the recall.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: AmericanNation on June 14, 2012, 07:55:01 pm
Evidence of vote fraud uncovered:

http://www.maciverinstitute.com/2012/06/curious-election-documents-found-in-dumpster-in-racine-sheriffs-department-investigating/

With signed, precertified forms there would be no impediment to bussing in people from out of state to vote in the recall.

This is probably a textbook case of vote fraud.  What can you do about it?  Try to get convictions on a few people, write a report proving the massive vote fraud, and than in the end democrats will claim nothing ever happened. 


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: BigSkyBob on June 14, 2012, 11:40:45 pm
Evidence of vote fraud uncovered:

http://www.maciverinstitute.com/2012/06/curious-election-documents-found-in-dumpster-in-racine-sheriffs-department-investigating/

With signed, precertified forms there would be no impediment to bussing in people from out of state to vote in the recall.

This is probably a textbook case of vote fraud.  What can you do about it?  Try to get convictions on a few people, write a report proving the massive vote fraud, and than in the end democrats will claim nothing ever happened. 

First, you sue to overturn the State Senate election on the basis of fraud. You find out who signed the blank registration forms, and, authenticate that it is fact his signature.  Second, you challenge every registration and/or ballot signed by this person as a fraudulently cast ballot by an unregistered voter. Then, you subpoena the names of addresses of the folks whom registered late in a form certified by the signer.  You knock on their doors to see if they in fact live where they registered. To buy time, you pony up the funds for a recount.

Second, then read the Wisconsin statutes very carefully to see if his signing constituted a crime. If it is, you demand that he be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Of course, you insist that he be fired. Ideally, you try to have his pension forfeited. A significant victory will be won if the next time someone asks for a bureaucrat to sign blank registration forms that bureaucrat asks himself, "Do I really what to subject myself to the onslaught that that other fellow had to endure?"

If you can document a single instance of a fraudulent ballot, you take your case to the people of Wisconsin by making the 2012 Senate elections a referendum in part on voter fraud by proposing to tightening the loopholes that allow such fraud. The day Lehman is eligible for recall, you file the signatures for his recall.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: Mr.Phips on June 16, 2012, 11:43:06 am
Walker won the 32nd, so it could be really close.  
Is Kapanke running again?  
He could win without the flood of money and manpower against him.  

Based on a quick Google search there isn't information on Kapanke's status for 2012. My guess is that if he hasn't announced yet that he isn't going to run in November.  

Kapanke would probably get blown out if he ran again.  Remember that he lost by a solid ten point margin in the recall and even lost his own district solidly when he ran against Kind in the wave year of 2010.  Even when he barely won in 2008, it was against some dude.  
Yes he lost a recall at the height of the recall ignorance fever in a lean dem district.  Now that Walker won the district last week, I think he wouldn't be "blown out."  He pretty much beat Kind in every a candidate can except the (R)&(D)+(inc)in lean dem dist. factor and I wasn't talking about that.    

Why would a strongly Dem district turn out a decent Democratic like Jenn Shilling for Kapanke, who is a very poor fit for the district?
It isn't a "strongly Dem district."  It is a 'volatile' (will flip occasionally) lean dem district that voted for Scott Walker a week ago.  I don't know Shilling, but off the top of my head she voted against the mining bill at least twice, which is a pretty good indicator that she is a hyper partisan hack or ignorant.  Kapanke is often described as "being his district / he IS his district" so I don't know how you get "very poor fit."  Doesn't he own several businesses and the local baseball team?              

It is a district that Obama got 61% in and even Kerry got 53% in.  Walker won it by one point when he was winning statewide by seven points.  That's like saying WA-05 is a swing district because it voted for Maria Cantwell.  

The district is Democratic enough that it voted by two points for Russ Feingold when he was losing statewide by five points.  
So:
Kerry by 6% in 2004
Feingold by 2% in 2010
Walker by 1% in 2012
Obviously a completely safe dem seat. in November.  

You forgot something bewteen 2004 and 2010. Obama by 22. And Walker won it by 1% in 2010, not sure about 2012.

Not to mention that Doyle won it by 17 in 2006 in the fairly close(53%-45%) governors race that year.  

Feingold won it by 18 in 2004 when he was winning by 11 statewide.

This is at least a D+5 district and if you include the 2008 and 2004 Presidential results, its D+7.  There are currently no Republicans representing districts this blue at the House level, especially as far to the right as Kapanke.  This would be like Nancy Pelosi representing a R+7 district like IN-09. 



Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: AmericanNation on June 17, 2012, 05:58:55 pm
1)Originally we were talking about the State Senate district, not the US House district.
2)Both districts have been redrawn, which might have some importance.


Title: Re: Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition
Post by: BigSkyBob on June 25, 2012, 05:44:58 pm
http://www.maciverinstitute.com/2012/06/thousands-of-racine-voters-may-have-been-able-to-cast-a-recall-ballot-by-mistake/

Looks like this election is going to court!