Talk Elections

One month ago Nevada Rep. Shelley Berkley said she'd run for Senate if her top consultant showed her a path to victory.

Voila.

Mark Mellman has laid the pavement with numbers that show Berkley in a dead heat for the seat being vacated by Sen. John Ensign.

His internal poll of 600 likely voters between March 13-15 places Berkley ahead of Republican Rep. Dean Heller by 4 points, 42 percent to 38 percent -- a lead that falls within the poll's 4 percent margin of error.  The survey was first reported by Nevada political commentator Jon Ralston.

A poll by the Democratic automated polling firm Public Policy Polling in January found considerably bleaker terrain for Berkley. In that survey, Heller bested the Democratic congresswoman, 51 percent to 38 percent.

But Mellman has considerable bragging rights for correctly tracking Sen. Harry Reid's 2010 victory when all the public polling got it wrong.

Sources close to Berkley say she still has not made up her mind to get in the race, though her statements in recent days seem to lean in that direction.

At a Democratic event in rural Nevada last week, she told the audience she was "fully prepared" to work on statewide issues "as a representative of the entire state."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0311/Mellman_poll_shows_pathway_for_Berkley.html?showall

Yeah, right...

Her numbers might not be as bad as PPP claims (they underestimated Democratic performances in the state both in 2008 and '10) but I don't believe that an obscure congresswoman is ahead of a former statewide elected official.

It looks like Berkley will run a competetive campaign afterall.

     Maybe, maybe not. You're not going to figure that out from an internal out of her campaign.

Berkley is far from obscure, she represented outer portions of Clark County before the 3rd district was added and served in the state Assembly before Heller did, so she has some name ID. Her internal pollster is the same one Harry Reid used and they were correct about his race, while public polls missed the mark.

This is Nevada and Obama will be running his campaign operation at full force in the state. I think Berkley has a good shot.

Underestimating Democratic performances in the last two or three weeks doesn't mean their (PPP) registered voter polls that probably showed Robin Carnahan ahead at this point last cycle are a great indicator of Democratic strength or weakness. Same goes for this poll, even. I don't feel like that type of statement adds any significance other than to create a false image of Republican bias where one doesn't exist. Leave those excuses for Scott Rasmussen.

Internal polls are never that accurate, so I still say Heller will win.

Truth. Even comparisons to established pollsters don't help as Nevada tends to poll very wackily (mostly to the benefit of Republicans in recent memory, but that need not continue, and I'm not sure why Democrats have tended to underpoll in NV).

Latinos that speak mainly Spanish, vote Democratic but don't answer phone polls are probably underrepresented, or they just don't give their preferences to strangers on the phone. Probably similar to why Hanabusa underpolled so much in the special.

Could also be the extensive early voting system they have allowing activists to get people who wouldn't otherwise vote(mainly in Vegas) to the polls.

This is a neat and typical explanation, but it doesn't sit well with me as Democrats tend not to underpoll (at the least, not as severely) in Texas, California, New Mexico and Arizona. Also not sure why you would say that about Hanabusa; there may be a lot of immigrants in Hawaii, but they all speak English. (There could be greater discomfort with/suspicion of pollsters among
Asian immigrants, or perhaps Native Hawaiians, though.)

Crap poll, even by internal standards.